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Israeli Leaders Furiously Jostle for Position
Olmert's impending exit has Kadima colleagues Tsippi Livni and Shaul Mofaz angling for his job.
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s announcement last week that he will not stand in his party’s upcoming primaries has shifted the usually frenetic Israeli political system into even higher gear. A quick review of how it got to this point may help explain where the Israeli electoral process is headed.
At the end of 2005, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, though immensely popular among the general public, faced a serious rebellion in his own Likud party over the unilateral disengagement from Gaza. His pesky opponents had the temerity to question the wisdom of a leader who had gained office by pledging not to flee in the face of terror and then proceeded to do just that.
Sharon’s answer was to form Kadima (Hebrew for “forward”). He hoped to break the Israeli political deadlock by staking sole claim to the political center and pressing forward with his unilateral approach. His party would include both former Likud leaders and key members of Labor, most prominently current Israeli President Shimon Peres. Particularly useful in his effort to reshuffle the Israeli political deck — something others had previously tried and failed to do — was the cult of personality that a leftist press had helped create around a longtime leader of the Right who was both willing and able to make sweeping territorial concessions.
Everything was proceeding according to plan. The polls showed his party winning over a third of Israel’s 120-seat Knesset. Then, suddenly, Sharon had a stroke and was incapacitated.
Members of his new party, fearful of a tailspin in the middle of an election campaign, quickly rallied around Sharon’s deputy, the talented and shrewd former mayor of Jerusalem, Ehud Olmert. Though Kadima was losing steam with each passing week, the image of an almost deified Sharon provided enough gas to get Olmert over the finish line.
Ostensibly weak politically — Kadima won 29 Knesset seats — and unpopular among the wider Israeli public, Prime Minister Olmert had a couple of things working in his favor that would prove critical. In Israel’s Byzantine political system, there are primarily two ways to topple a government. First, 61 members of Israel’s Knesset can at any time throw support behind another member of the Knesset and enable him or her to form a government. Second, the Knesset can vote to disband itself and thereby force new elections.
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Ron Dermer was most recently Israel's minister of economic affairs in the U.S. He is the co-author with Natan Sharansky of the bestselling book, The Case For Democracy.
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4 Comments
1. Brian H:Getting a competent and ballsy government out of that coalition mess would be like nailing Jello to the wall. What a gift to Hizbollah and Iran!
Aug 11, 2008 - 7:05 am 2. Jim S:Excellent, well-written piece. Olmert is a joke and its about time he finally steps down. Israel needs a leader with integrity and a vision for the future, two qualities conspicuously absent from most Israeli politicians’ repertoires.
Aug 12, 2008 - 10:20 am 3. John Samford:If Bibi isn’t elected, Israel is finished. I had expected them to last a little longer. At least as long as the Kingdom of Jerusalem.
Aug 13, 2008 - 4:44 am 4. Susan:Maybe Israel can do the rest of us a favor and use up it’s nuclear weapons before the Muslims get them. Mecca would be a good start. Turn the 5 Pillars into 4.
An excellent analysis–thank you. I never before understood what it would take in Israel to bring down a government before scheduled elections. Like other posters, I pray that Israelis will reject Livni and elect Netanyahu who, while not perfect, is nontheless clearly head and shoulders above the competition on nearly every level. What’s more, he seems to have learned something from his past mistakes, unlike the present government, which has learned nothing, but just keeps digging itself deeper into the hole of appeasement.
Aug 13, 2008 - 8:56 pm