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It’s All Coming Down to a Few Key States …
... and both sides have illusions about flipping some electoral votes to red or blue.
Consider also the putative “Katrina factor.” New Orleans, Southern Mississippi, and other Gulf Coast locales lost a great many to death or relocation in 2005 and 2006. Those who uprooted to Arkansas, Texas, and Oklahoma were predominantly black and few returned. And despite what the New York Times says, thanks to heroic rescue/relocation efforts like we also saw during Hurricanes Gustav and Ike, many are now enjoying a better, safer life away from the loutish “Big Easy.” As a friend in New Orleans told me, “The South will be even more Republican for 2008, since many Democrat votes are gone.”
The media deduces that because Obama won big sky states in the primaries, he might triumph there in November as well. That’s very quixotic, considering these are the most conservative states in America, with Bush easily winning all of them in 2000 and 2004. If North Dakota and Montana are in play as we’re told, then certainly Maine and Oregon, both much closer in 2004, would be as well. See how silly that sounds? Not that the media has been listening much this past summer.
Bush won North Dakota and Montana by nearly 30 points, so exactly how would the most liberal senator in America win over a man and his running mate respected by both sides for his “originality”? The aggregate total of Democrats in places like Utah, Wyoming, the Dakotas, Idaho, Nebraska, Montana, non-Vegas Nevada, and Kansas is as stunningly low as their ethnic diversity. North Dakota has roughly 6,000 African-Americans. So, though “minorities” may help decide the election, they won’t influence these red states very much. Certainly Michelle Obama’s rhetoric won’t help here either, nor will embracing Jimmy Carter’s bilious views.
As for Sen. McCain’s dreams of winning northeastern states, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania is a realistic chance — certainly as much as Obama winning Colorado — since the Keystone State contains conservative areas outside the two major cities. Obama angered the “bitter folks,” plenty of them Democrats, with his April San Francisco speech, and 95% of Pennsylvania’s interior counties went to Bush in 2004. Kerry only won by two points; outside of Philly and parts of Pittsburgh, Obama will have to win over many blue-collar social conservatives, including “Reagan Democrats,” who are less than happy with his aberrant views on abortion. Hillary demolished him here in April, so watch the “bitter/cling factor” and watch the Keystone State .
New York is also worth a look, as it’s truly an odd animal. Hillary thumped Barack by more than 17 points in her adopted home state in February, and though Obama should still be able to claim a win here, he’s slipping each day. New York will not be nearly as easy as it was in 2004, when Kerry also won by 17 points.
New York City has more Jews than any city in the world and most polls also show that close to 40% of Jews, a pre-9/11 lock for Democrats, don’t support Obama. That is compared to just 26% and 19% who supported Bush in 2004 and 2000, respectively, and the paltry 11% who voted for Bob Dole in 1996.
I have 12 close friends in the New York City area from ages 24 to 31, who work in various fields, from accounting to advertising. All are registered Democrats from similar backgrounds and all voted for Kerry last election. Eleven of them, in response to a recent email, told me they are voting for John McCain. The one who’s not, an erstwhile supporter of John Edwards, is undecided.
Why would none of them support Obama? All gave similar answers: they are moderate Democrats, fiscally conservative, but who, more importantly, saw the horrors of 9/11 up close. As one man said, “We lived it; others watched and read about it.” Others wrote me along the lines of “McCain is the more centrist candidate,” and “Obama’s sketchy foreign policy will not keep us safe from a terrorist attack.” Readers of the Wall Street Journal, they know McCain, for better or worse, is anything but a third term for Bush. That is telling, and worth watching.
These New Yorkers confirm that it’s not a bunch of mossbacks who are preempting the coronation of our first (half) black president; it’s more likely politics, inexperience, naiveté, empty rhetoric, European vacations , out-of-touch elitism, PUMAs, socialist tendencies, or his relationships with nefarious folks.
That said, the McCain camp, despite his obvious advantage in experience, would need to be extremely sanguine to anticipate coloring New York red on November 4. Though recently they have run a brilliant campaign and despite upstate NY being conservative, New York City comprises nearly half the state’s population and the area is tailor-made for Obama, especially Manhattan: diverse, wealthy, young, fawning media, counter-culture, oblivious to serious issues like infanticide, and, outside of Staten Island, not as many working-class, culturally conservative “Jacksonian Democrats” (cops, firefighters, et al.) as you’d see in Pennsylvania or Ohio.
And of course, the rest of America is pretty well-settled in terms of red and blue. Though most state’s physical area is red, the urban areas, their immediate suburbs, and college towns go blue. You can plant Rhode Island, Vermont, and Massachusetts for Obama just as easily as planting Oklahoma , Wyoming, and Texas for McCain. And though California voted for Hillary, in a state where Kerry won by nearly 10% and a GOP senator’s death is celebrated, it will be hard for a Republican not named Reagan to win there for a while.
An analogy worth noting is that, like “Barry” Obama, George McGovern and Barry Goldwater drew enormous crowds and excitement. The former captured just one state, while the latter managed six. Youths working and standing in long lines for tickets may look good on television, but it’s also transparent and exudes ignorance. It is in fact those “dotards” over 65, voting in larger blocks, that regularly have the final say.
Bottom line: unless he wins Ohio and Florida , Obama is still searching for three or four Bush states to turn his way in order to gain his expected victory. I have not seen them. The 2008 map will be similar to 2004, which is amazing, considering the low opinion of the current president and the baseless claims of McCain filling a third Bush term.
PJM’s Victor Davis Hanson summed everything up best back in a June column here:
In a year that for historical and contemporary reasons should be a Democratic shoo-in, the Democrats have nominated about the only candidate who can lose in November, the Republicans the only one of their own who can still win it.
Is there any argument that has been made to counter this or similar salient logic? Not yet, and it’s getting awfully late.
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Ari Kaufman resides in Indianapolis where he is a military historian and an Associate Fellow at the Sagamore Institute. A former Los Angeles schoolteacher, he is the author of Reclamation: Saving our schools starts from within.
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138 Comments
1. lee:Mccain might also perform slightly better than Bush in my state California, which is moderate to conservative outside of the bay area and Los Angeles. I don’t see Mccain winning here, of course.
The electoral maps from some polling websites indicate that Colorado and / or New Mexico will probably end up deciding the election. Obama apparently has a slim lead in both states, but according to this article, Colorado is more or less conservative. Can John Mccain win either of those states?
I believe older Asians are more evenly split on the candidates (at least compared to the black vote), so an increased minority presence in the predominently white states isn’t necesarily a bad thing. We don’t vote enough to make a difference, unfortunately.
Oct 3, 2008 - 2:28 am 2. Marc Malone:I think you’re making the same mistake that McCain’s campaign advisers are making. To wit: This is not a normal election. If McCain starts treating it as an inflection moment, he could turn this into a landslide victory. Thing is, he probably won’t.
Obama really is unelectable. McCain needs to show people that, but the ads are all these short, emotional ads, rather than substantive. Same old pap. People are hungry for specifics this year. Obama can win with the usual. McCain cannot.
Picture this ad: scroll a long list of tax votes that Obama voted for, and a long list of tax cuts Obama voted against. Don’t just tell them he voted 94 times for higher taxes. Give them visual impact.
Another: Get specific examples of small businesses who would be just hammered by Obama’s $250+k tax hike. Have THEM say how many jobs they’d cut.
Bush has done some things right that McCain agreed with, and that the populace agrees with. The McBush label stings less if Bush is seen as not all bad.
Conversely ,hammer the Dems on this economic ‘crisis’. Make THEM own it. Obama’s running against Bush. McCain should run against Congress. Make them (in)famous.
His campaign adviser stinks.
Oct 3, 2008 - 2:48 am 3. J.J. Sefton:My emotions and optimism seem to be swinging day to day. After Palin was selected I really thought we couldn’t lose. Over the last few weeks, and with the economic debacle I thought, oh my G-d, this is just like “The Producers.” The Dems chose the worst actor, the worst play, the worst director– and the public LOVES it! They did that before but Kerry, Gore and Dukakis weren’t quite the worst I suppose.
It’s either going to be a squeaker or a McCain/Palin mandate (will not jinx it by saying “Landslide”).
Oct 3, 2008 - 4:05 am 4. razib:wow. is this a “joke” analysis?
Oct 3, 2008 - 5:00 am 5. Larry Grant:We are closely watching the presidential race here at FOB Mehter Lam, Afghanistan. We have a great officer in charge of registering all of us to vote. As a result of his agressive work, lots of us are already getting our balots in the mail. We hope that they count us come November 4. Regards, Larry Grant – “Roll Tide”
Oct 3, 2008 - 5:01 am 6. Bernard Chapin:My optimism has flagged too as of late, but I agree with (brave) conservative commentators that the polls are not in cement and things may change at the time of the election. I was disappointed by McCain’s surrender in Michigan though. I think Sarah’s performance yesterday will draw Obama back down to 2 or 3 percent up on the RCP average. Good article though and it will come down to a couple of key states. I don’t buy that Obama will win Florida even if the drivebys are shouting it now.
Oct 3, 2008 - 5:12 am 7. Keith:McCain should only concentrate on the Red States…they will send him to the White House. A Blue State he would pick up would only be gravy!
Oct 3, 2008 - 5:20 am 8. Dave:This is a JR comment test. AFter more than a year of participation, my comments on her COmmentary blog suddenly are not appearing, and I want to make sure I haven’t messed up my laptop somehow, that it IS commentary doing this.
So, here goes nothing, from a PJTV subscriber and regular RUbin reader.
Oct 3, 2008 - 5:23 am 9. hagar:As a resident of Montgomery county Pennsylvania,which is a critical county in a critical state,I see a lot of McCain lawn signs where KERRY signs once stood.Just an observation.
Oct 3, 2008 - 5:50 am 10. Calvin:“wow. is this a “joke” analysis?”
it’s intrepid but he’s just mentioning obvious states that both should win. aside from colorado, where is there anything debatable or a “joke”? seems accurate enough, and thorough to me…
Oct 3, 2008 - 6:15 am 11. jbb:Ari J. Kaufman, I hope your right. I have recently been disappointed with the McCain Camp. They are letting way to many Obama/Biden lies get through and they need to attack more. I live in the unfortunately blue state of Maryland so maybe I’m just not getting to see the McCain campaign in full force. He needs to get more aggressive or Obama’s going to BS himself into the white house.
Oct 3, 2008 - 6:51 am 12. Josh:Great article. It’s nice to see something written from first hand research and observations rather than a resporter in Washington, DC basing conclusions on polls and conversations with other natives of the East Coast.
I am curious though what you making of polling in states like Colorado, and even Ohio showing Obama with a lead. Do you believe the polls to be wrong? If so, why?
By the way, I agree with many of your conclusions. My questions are serious and not a criticism of your piece. It would be great to hear your answers.
Thanks
Oct 3, 2008 - 6:52 am 13. Mister Snitch!:Very thoughtful post, Ari. As for the usual clowns showing up here with their own “analyses” consisting of trite insults – what can I say to them but: Stay classy.
Oct 3, 2008 - 6:59 am 14. Ryan:I agree with the sentiment on this board that this campaign is not running by “normal” axioms – certain states that we think aren’t in play may be. With such uncertainty and ineptitude within our legislative chambers in response to the economic bailout plan; who knows how that will translate to voter mood come the first week in November. Some good insights here…
Oct 3, 2008 - 7:02 am 15. KD:Your analogy of comparing Obama possibly winning North Dakota and Montana to McCain’s possible victories in Oregon and Maine paralleled nicely. The media can spin it all they want, no way does Obama win either of those states.
Oct 3, 2008 - 7:05 am 16. RCD:Ari, you’ve been steadfast in your belief of a McCain victory through the ebbs and flows of this pre-election season. It’s good to read that the roots of your belief come from analytical thought.
My only fear, like a few that have commented, is that McCain’s people simply haven’t focused on the right things through ads and talking points. Many opportunities have been missed. Conversely, Obama’s people are targeted in their spending and even purchased a channel on a TV provider as a 24/7 ad. Sure it comes off as very egotistical and a bit like an attempt to brainwash, but they’re leaving no stone unturned…whether in vain or not (to build up the crux of your article).
I’m looking forward to voting and hoping America will not simply accept sound bites as their information, but instead will dig deeper to find out truths about these two vastly-different candidates.
Oct 3, 2008 - 7:12 am 17. John Fiala:“Ranchers in the state’s eastern plains are predominantly Republican and have been that way for nearly 40 years.”
Yes… but will they vote for an Arizonian who wants to renegotiate away their water rights? No water rights, no more ranches…
Oct 3, 2008 - 7:22 am 18. TheGoatWhisperer:Lil’ Barry is toast in West Virginia.
West Virginia is probably the most patriotic state in the union. A higher percentage of blood was shed by West Virginians in our Nation’s wars than anywhere else; so nobody is buying Axelrod’s Maxist-Socialist anti-USA bravo sierra.
But as a solid Palin-Mcwhatshisname supporter; I do hope the Obamaniacs spend large in West, by God, Virginia.
Oct 3, 2008 - 7:29 am 19. Frank Logan:Why would anybody who thought the MSM was biased, not think that just maybe the polls are biased as well. The reason everybody is in a panic is because of the latest poll of the day. The only poll I pay attention to is the one that states that currently 28% (up from 21% in June)of Hillary supporters are voting for McCain. That is 350,000 votes in each state of Ohio, Pa., and Michigan. This helps explain hagar’s comment @5:50 am. To put it in perspective, in 2004 Bush won by 135,000 votes in Ohio and lost by 130,000 in Pa., by 165,000 in Michigan. The democratic party is split. McCain in a landslide.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/vote2004/nationalelectionresultsbystate.aspx?oi=P&rti=G&cn=1&tf=l
Oct 3, 2008 - 7:45 am 20. Jarhead:New Jersey has committed its electoral votes to the winner of the electoral vote – why the Democrats who run the state thought this was a good idea is beyond me. This puts NJ in play.
Oct 3, 2008 - 8:03 am 21. Drew:Could John Fiala please explain why negotiations over water rights for the Colorado River effect ranchers in Eastern Colorado?
Oct 3, 2008 - 8:52 am 22. sestamibi:Last time I looked, no part of the Colorado River was east of the Continental Divide (which is West of Denver).
Jarhead–
No that’s not true. NJ has signed on to the popular vote pact, which states that its electoral votes go to the winner of the national popular vote, on the condition that this only becomes operative once states with a majority of the electoral vote sign on as well. Since this is a long way off, NJ’s electoral votes will still go to the state winner (most likely Hussein).
Oct 3, 2008 - 9:00 am 23. John Fiala:Drew: You’re correct, it probably wouldn’t affect those to the east. I’m just bringing up things I’ve heard living here in Colorado – that doesn’t mean that I heard correctly.
Oct 3, 2008 - 9:07 am 24. Cichawoda:Wow!! you folks are weird. From your comments I have to assume that you think what happened to America in the last eight years was a good thing.
Oct 3, 2008 - 9:14 am 25. geokstr:If only McCain had made a token stand against this pork-riddled “bailout”, he would have been able to tap into the huge amount of anger on both sides that there is in country over the economic debacle that has erupted. Instead of actually standing with his own party for once on a matter of principle, he again displayed his lack of any, in order to appear “bipartisan” and “presidential”, while Obama just sat back and grinned as he shot himself in the foot over and over.
No matter how Frank and Dodd and Obama try to spin this, it is the gradual intrusion and expansion of leftwing socialist policies into lending practices that led to this. Below is the best article I have ever seen detailing the far-left radicalism that Obama has immersed himself in his entire life. It also links him DIRECTLY to the 1995 revisions to the Community Re-Investment Act the led to the implosion of Fannie and Freddie. Obama was the attorney for ACORN in the case that led to the 1995 revisions.
How many times have you seen Obama brag about his critical role in this landmark case? Given he has been hounded relentlessly over his lack of accomplishments, you would think he would have this front and center on his resume. Instead, he refuses to release his client list from the days he was in private practice. I wonder why? Hmmm….
I urge everyone to read this and then send it to Sean Hannity and others with a voice to broadcast it as loudly as possible, concentrating on this paragraph:
“Obama represented ACORN in the Buycks-Roberson v. Citibank Fed. Sav. Bank, 1994 suit against redlining. Most significant of all, ACORN was the driving force behind a 1995 regulatory revision pushed through by the Clinton Administration that greatly expanded the CRA and laid the groundwork for the Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac borne financial crisis we now confront. Barack Obama was the attorney representing ACORN in this effort.”
http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/09/barack_obama_and_the_strategy.html
Oct 3, 2008 - 9:44 am 26. Andy in Colorado:Re: Water rights for Colorado River
For those not aware of the massive network of tunnels drilled under the continental divide in Colorado, there are many, many ways that water from the Colorado river basin ends up in the Platte/Mississippi basin. While I’m not sure that has a direct effect on the ranchers in question, it certainly impacts water politics overall in Colorado.
In this election, you should expect to see huge turnout in the suburbs in part because of early voting which starts later this month. Douglas County (one of the most affluent in the nation) will likely see more than 95% turnout. Palin had a very positive effect on the suburban Colorado voters, particularly women. In the end that will probably make the difference for McCain.
There is so much telephone polling going on in Colorado that most of us just hang up these days – this tends to skew the numbers more Democratic, which only reinforces to suburbanites that they need to make sure they vote. Voter ID laws will make it very hard for any election-day shenanigans. It will be very close but unless McCain or Palin stumble badly they will pull it out here.
Oct 3, 2008 - 10:03 am 27. geokstr:Cichawoda:
“Wow!! you folks are weird. From your comments I have to assume that you think what happened to America in the last eight years was a good thing.”
You are absolutely correct. Many of us don’t think the last 8 years have been especially good except for Bush’s tough stand against Islamists and the tax cuts.
Pretty much except for that, I never could understand the left’s hatred of Bush. Was it the Florida debacle where your voters were too uncoordinated to punch holes in a piece of paper? I suspect it was all because you LOST the election, proven by every recount. And we didn’t even need the tens of thousands of military ballots that weren’t counted because of left-wing chicanery.
A LOT of us on the right feel betrayed by Bush and his so-called conservatism. And all those betrayals were things YOU wanted:
- out-of-control spending
- support for amnesty for illegals
- failure to veto McCain/Feingold
- refusal to back our troops against falsely accused by John Murtha
- failure to support our border agents
- failure to build the fence
And lots and lots of other things.
It’s not that we also don’t want “CHANGE”, we just “HOPE” it won’t be in the radical left-wing direction that The One will take us in.
Oct 3, 2008 - 10:05 am 28. Neale:One thing I keep in mind, living in Colorado, was that the polls for the state gate Kerry and Both HUGE landslide victories here (15 and 20 points), yet Bush trounced them each hard here. I do blame the polls, because I don’t think they actually do poll outside of Denver and Boulder.
Oct 3, 2008 - 10:13 am 29. Olivia:You bring up some good analysis Ari. And while I’m all behind the McCain campaign I’m worried they are asleep at the wheel. They give Obama way too many passes and don’t seize nearly enough opportunities. And some of us don’t just want Obama to lose. I want him to get hammered so he doesn’t even think of running ever again. And I’m saying this as a former Democrat.
Oct 3, 2008 - 10:18 am 30. Betty C.:Very thorough and in depth analysis by Mr. Kaufman. I have very much enjoyed reading his thoughts throughout the election. I agree with others here that McCain has let a lot of good opportunities go and needs to now step up and attack Obama more aggressively. Time is running out and people are too blinded by the media to realize that they are about to elect a leftist extremist with all sorts of sketchy connections and whom we really do not know that much more about. I thought Palin was brilliant yesterday and I still have faith in the republican ticket. However, I am also beginning to worry a bit since the consequences could be disastrous…
Oct 3, 2008 - 11:00 am 31. Lolita:I hope Mr. Kaufman is right and all this Obama furor is nothing more than a reflection of who is yelling the loudest.
Though I am not a McCain/Palin supporter, I think your analysis is dead on. I think the MSM is way off in terms of identifying the “swing states”. In the end though, it’s not such a bad thing for the American public to overestimate the number of swing states rather than underestimate, as it will get more people out to the polls if they think their vote actually counts. But definitely the Obama camp needs to be careful about counting their eggs.
Oct 3, 2008 - 11:11 am 32. Joe Mims:What about Virginia??
Oct 3, 2008 - 11:35 am 33. Joe:What about Virginia
Oct 3, 2008 - 11:35 am 34. Pay Leahy:Great analysis. Thoroughly researched piece and it shows. Will be interesting to see how many of AJK’s insights come to fruition when all is said & done with this election.
Oct 3, 2008 - 11:37 am 35. Blossom:This is another thoughtful, well-researched and well presented view by Mr. Kaufman.I have come to respect his opinions because I know he actually visits and talks with the folks about whom he writes. This piece today especially shows his insight when he discusses New York. Far too many people think that NY mean the CITY and the rest of the state is a vast wasteland. Having lived most of my life in western NY, I know that it is indeed two different worlds.But sheer numbers have dictated policy for too many years. This is what happens when the “gimmes” outnumber the “givers”.
Oct 3, 2008 - 11:46 am 36. FatJer:I pray Ari is correct, and John McCain has a chance at being elected this November.
Oct 3, 2008 - 11:54 am 37. HamiltonJay:This is indeed a very unusual election with a first ever black man running, and a possible female V.P.
I’m a republican through, and through but in all honesty Geo. Bush has destroyed my party by not being an effective leader allowing republicans to act like democrats, screwing up the war in Iraq (That’s why we needed a surge) on, and on, and on. So, not only does McCain have to run on his own record, but he has to deal with the Geo. Bush failed Presidency, and now an economic meltdown.
Voters have traditionally voted their pocketbooks, and I don’t see why this election should be any different. I pray to G-d in heaven that somehow this will be an even more unusual election year when substance will win out over financial considerations. G-d forbid that Obama who has never renounced his Muslim religion be allowed to hijack this election.
PA isn’t just possible pick up for McCain, its pretty much a given that McCain will pick up PA, as well as very likely at least 1 or 2 more of the rust belt states.
Here’s the PA analysis.
PA 2000 went to Gore by ~205k votes
PA 2004 went to Kerry by ~140k votes
Now, PA has been trending more R every election cycle for a while now. PA was going to be a tough fight for ANY democrat to hold, but Fauxbama has no chance of winning this state.
Kerry And Gore got those wins with the entire state machine behind them and all the blue dog/blue collar whites etc 100% behind them.
That’s not whats going on here in PA today. The white blue collar folks aren’t supporting FAUXBAMA, and no democrat can win this state without them. He’s down in every demographic behind where Kerry was with the exception of blacks and youth and his gains there are not nearly enough to make up for his losses in every other demographic.
Rendell our state governor is in the bag for Hillary, he doesn’t like or support Fauxbama, that state machine will not be working hard for Fauxbama, only token efforts for appearances are being done.
Hillary won the state late in the primaries by 9 points, mainly because he did not get the votes I am talking about among only the democrats voting. He hasn’t changed that, yes many of those hillary folks will go Fauxbama out of party loyalty, but MANY won’t.
The Unions here went to Hillary during the primaries and told her she would only get their support if she promised to not put Fauxbama on the ticket as VP. They know this guy can’t win, now those same folks are trying to sell the guy to the rank and file, and it isn’t selling.
PUMA issue, nuff said. Not a huge number, but doesn’t need to be a huge issue. Kerrys win here was only about 2.5% of the vote.
Now, after all that, I can tell you on the ground, the white blue collar urban neighborhoods that a democrat absolutely MUST carry and carry well to win PA, are not supporting the guy. Its blindingly obvious in the Pittsburgh region, neighborhoods that in previous elections would have dem signs ever 4th or 5th house and a republican sign maybe every 10th or 15th are largely even in signage. That’s not going on this time, in fact in most of these neighborhoods the signage is barely favoring Fauxbama to flat out equal or even slight McCain advantage.
The same thing is visible on the ground in Philly region as well! Now Kerry came out of Philly with a 4 to 1 vote margin (that’s including all that fraud etc) and still just barely eeked out < 150k win. Fauxbama will not remotely be near that vote margin out of Philly and he’s not going to get the votes that Kerry got across the rest of the state either.
It won’t be a blowout, but PA is going to go McCain.
PA was going to be a tough tight fight for the D’s to hold this time if they had put up a reasonable candidate. They didn’t, they put up a schlub, and an empty suited schlub at that. The dems lost PA the minute they put up Fauxbama.
I believe true battleground states are the rust belt, PA, MI, MN and WI.. Fauxbama loses any of these states he loses the election, and I believe without question PA is lost for Fauxbama and he’s going to lose at least 1 or 2 more of these states.
Look at the rust belt state, that’s the election, Fauxbama is not connecting with the blue dog/blue collar white democrats across that region at all, and he can’t lose any of those states and have any chance of winning the election.
Oct 3, 2008 - 11:59 am 38. Joe C.:This election will be a landslide either way. It will not be close. I’m just not sure who the winner will be yet.
Oct 3, 2008 - 12:10 pm 39. Perdogg:McCain wins, in addition from Bush in 2004, PA,NH,ME-CD2,MN = +35
loses, IA and NM,,-12.
McCain 309
Oct 3, 2008 - 12:22 pm 40. Maurice:Obama 229
I’ll add my .02 to the mix. Here in Missouri we have a Governor’s race that will, unless something drastic happens, result in a Dem pickup. The Democratic candidate Jay Nixon will win in a walk over his Repulbican challenger Congressman Kenny Hulshof. Right now Nixon has about a 12 to 14 point lead because he’s a really electable Democrat: fiscally and morally conservative with just the right streak of populism to appeal to the masses. Nixon is actually polling 8 to 10 points better than Obama depending on the polls you see.
So what does that have to do with the election, well I have noticed that you can tell how this state will go by the bumper sticker/yard sign count. Yard signs tell the world, and your neighbors, how you feel and bumber stickers take real commitment since they aren’t coming off anytime soon. Here in my district, a bellweather for most state elections, we’re split about 60 Republican and 40 Democrat, though both sides seem to be more “independent” in their voting histories.
Keeping that in mind when it was Bush v Gore we saw about an even number of Bush and Gore yard signs and bumper stickers. When it was Bush v Kerry, Bush had a distinct advantage in yard signs and ran about even in stickers. This year, however, things are really wierd. With a governor’s race that isn’t even close we expect to see Jay Nixon signs everywhere, and he is in fact beating Kenny Hulshof about 3 to 1 in yard signs and bumper stickers. However at the presidential level it’s reversed. McCain/Palin signs easily outnumber Obama/Biden signs outside about 2 to 1 – I’d say in Missouri at least Obama’s support is a mile wide and an inch deep, push comes to shove this state is McCain’s for the taking.
Oct 3, 2008 - 12:31 pm 41. Cichawoda:geokstr:
Oct 3, 2008 - 1:18 pm 42. Dils:You seem very emotional about this. As far as I can see since the Regan “Revolution” you guys, the so called conservatives have been responsible for the largest periods of growth in government and government spending, government intervention in private life and largest growth in illegal immigration (illegals come here because they are given jobs by the “conservative” private sector so that the “conservatives” can make more money – I don’t see any working for the “liberal” government). Oh yeh – and the sinking of American reputation abroad, the collapses and socialization of the financial markets and the deterioration of the American infrastructure.
As for the Islamists – it was your policies in Afghanistan (supporting them against the Russians) that created the problem, it is your war in Iraq that has given them a second life. Don’t kid yourself – Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11, had no WMDs, no Al Qaeda and no nukes – what it does have is oil. But the way I see it with the money we spent there we could have destroyed Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and still had enough money left over to start a domestic energy “Manhattan Project” – we would all be better off. If you could look at this with fresh eyes you would clearly see that you are supporting the party of poverty, chaos and war.
This is a well written, sensible piece. However, I think the election hinges on three key states: Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. I think McCain needs to win all three, and I think he has a shot. The next two weeks with the two pending debates will tell us a lot about who will win on November 4th. Go PHILLIES!
Oct 3, 2008 - 1:23 pm 43. Cichawoda:FatJer:
Oct 3, 2008 - 1:29 pm 44. nick:Psst – you also controlled the Congress for 6 of the 8 years of GW. So you should give the some credit too.
BTW do you realize that most of the “Red” states are beggar states? They take money from the “Blue” states to support their habits. If you really were a honorable conservative and supporter of the free market you would reject such welfare.
Obama a Muslim? – you must be getting your information from the same newspapers and magazines that Sara reads.
perdogg is a moron
nh +10
pa +9
obama landslide
Oct 3, 2008 - 1:33 pm 45. newnhdad:He needs PA because VA could slip away on the strength of the NoVA transplant votes aka people escaping MD taxes and DC crime/taxes. (I lived there for 11 years before moving up north)
PA, OH and NH are key. I lived in NH for three years and I feel that there is no way it goes Obama. McCain is too well liked up there. Those people are one democrat administration (in the statehouse)away from getting a sales and/or income tax and they’re getting scared. White guilt didn’t stretch over the Mass border like the hordes of people escaping taxes.
Oct 3, 2008 - 1:44 pm 46. Nancy:Neale: I live in Steamboat Springs, CO. (ski resort) Haven’t received a single call re voting and preference. Obama is reported to have an office here. Everyone I know is voting for Barry.
Oct 3, 2008 - 1:46 pm 47. HamiltonJay:One more state I’d say to keep an eye on, that NO ONE in the national media is talking about.
WA. I believe this has the potential to be a sleeper for republicans.
The theft of the governorship in 2004 has motivated the republican base, and the decent independents who watched the unabashed theft of the office.
Since that even WA state booted 500,000 dead and invalid voters from their rolls, and put something like 7 to 9 people in jail.
The state went to Kerry by I believe about 200k votes.
The governors race is a direct rematch between the players in 2004, and because of the hanky panky to steal the governorship turn out and motivation are huge by the supporters of the R candidate to get a huge turnout to avenge that wrongdoing. This if it happens will spill up and down the ticket, and very well could make WA go R.
I am not saying it will happen, but I’m saying I am keeping my eye on WA, because I think we have a potential sleeper situation going on there, that the national media likely won’t even pick up on until very very close to election day if they do at all.
They are all too busy cheerleading that FL, OH and VA are in play, when I don’t believe they are or ever were.
IA is the only swing that’s a lock for Fauxbama this time around, and that’s got more to do with McCain opposing farm and ethanol subsidies than Iowans being big supporters of Fauxbama. CO and NM may swing, but I don’t think the Fauxbama lead will hold there, at best I’d say he gets one, not both.
Oct 3, 2008 - 1:51 pm 48. Cichawoda:The stock market is now lower than it was on Jan 1st 2001, National debt just hit a 50 year record and China and the Islamists (SA) own most of it, our reputation as a beacon of justice is at rock bottom, we are stuck in a unjust war, we still haven’t caught Bin Laden after much fullish cowboy strutting,and half of our “free market” economy just got nationalized – this is what you get after 8 years of GW and 6 years of a Republican Congress – don’t you think people see this? Don’t you think people remember. The promise of reform from McCain is as empty as Sara Palin’s head.
Oct 3, 2008 - 1:52 pm 49. Cichawoda:The real driver in this election is going to be the young vote. I teach and I see how fed up the youth is with this downward spiral the conservatives have put us on.
Check out the National Debt pattern for the last 30 year and tell me who is fiscally responsible:
http://zfacts.com/p/318.html
HamiltonJay:
Oct 3, 2008 - 2:26 pm 50. Calvin:You make it sound like Obama/Bidden is not liked by anybody. You make it sound as if people can’t remember who got us into all the messes we are in now. Republicans lost the Western (3rd dist) half of Colorado 2 years ago and now the Eastern (4th dist) half is turning soft, Oregon and Washington are split solid down the Rockies but most of the people live on the Blue side, we see shifts in Arizona and New Mexico towards the blue. It’s not even that people love Obama there but anybody that has an ounce of memory left can look back and say with full confidence that they don’t want non of that no more.
McCain is as much of a reformer as Bush is an intellectual. As for Palin – she might have energized the “Hockey Mom” base but she doesn’t play well that the “Soccer Moms” – seldom have a seem such anger and distaste. People who I would never have considered to be “political” have volunteered to help.
BTW – how is the GOP going to keep her from the press for the next month and avoid proving that she is just an airhead?
“I teach and I see how fed up the youth is with this downward spiral the conservatives have put us on.”
The youth are fed up? What do they know? Do they have families and mortgages? Do they read history or realize that it was social engineering liberal policies that caused this problem? Or do you just teach them that Bush is the cause of everything like most do? Let them decide for themselves. You teachers are so dangerous with your warped and negative view of America!
One thing the Obama/Axelrod/Biden campaign has done a very good job is making Americans believe that the current admin. is the reason the economy is sluggish when in reality this is a typical, factless bold faced liberal lie.
Oct 3, 2008 - 2:35 pm 51. Bernard Chapin:Hey, cich, just as a hint, “zfacts” alerts everyone to your being a leftist. Just in case you were trying to pretend otherwise.
Oct 3, 2008 - 2:41 pm 52. Cichawoda:Bernard Chapin:
Oct 3, 2008 - 2:55 pm 53. lee:How am I a leftist? I’m not even a Democrat. It is simple – since Regan the GOP has done a very bad job with the basics. They have destroyed faith in the “free market”, they have grown the National debt to obscene proportions, they have attacked personal freedoms and choices, they have capitulated to the religious fanatics. They do not represent a true Republican ideology any more. They have sold their soul to the devil and all they are left with is the rotting flesh.
California is a certifiable blue state, but illegal immigration is a big issue here. Many illegals provide cheap labor in the Los Angeles area, where many business owners lean democrat heavily.
What is this private conservative business that eCich speaks of? Ultra right wingers like the minutemen work to expel illegals in other businesses.
Oct 3, 2008 - 2:56 pm 54. Red Blooded American:Interesting piece, however more instructive about wingnut “logic” than about anything real.
Think about it. The Colorado race will not be decided by the sparsely-populated eastern plains area of that state where the voters align with Kansas more than with their own state. It will be decided by Denver, Boulder, Ft. Collins, Colorado Springs, Pueblo and Grand Junction. The liberal ski towns and the eastern plains probably cancel each other out. It will probably be close, but it is trending Obama.
And Obama is currently ahead in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and at least within striking distance in North Carolina. You can string together West Virginia, South Carolina, Mississippi and a whole host of other states but if Obama wins even one of Florida, Ohio or Virginia in addition to the Kerry states then he wins the election with room to spare. And it is looking way better than that for him. But his organization is not letting up. They are motivated and determined. Unlike the McCain organization which threw in the towel on Michigan and to objective observers seems unmotivated and disorganized pretty much everywhere. The truth is, Obama has run a consistent and well-organized campaign and it is showing results. I don’t pretend to know what will happen on election day, but my gut feeling is that the country is in no mood for McCain and his tendencies to shoot from the hip and gamble. That might play in more robust economic circumstances but not now. He seems to be constantly searching for the big score via a hail mary pass. That strategy can work, obviously. But it fails on average. So proponents of a McCain victory have to come up with increasingly tenuous arguments about how he will win in a whole host of places where it appears he is very challenged, while the Obama campaign methodically executes their strategy. Kaufman is seriously behind the curve to be making arguments about North Dakota and Montana, which have been conceded by Obama, as if winning them or not makes any difference. And his claims that McCain has a chance in NY and PA are absurd. McCain’s campaign is in complete disarray, and shows no overall discipline or direction, but merely reacts to the latest zigs and zags of its standard-bearer, rationalizing all the while. The Obama campaign is saddled with no such liabilities.
It’s interesting that Kaufman quotes Vic Hanson about Obama being the only candidate capable of losing the election for the Democrats. There is perhaps some truth there, though I doubt that Clinton would be further ahead at this point than Obama is, and no other candidates made serious noise in the primaries. And if he does win despite being “the only candidate capable of losing” then that will make the victory all the more historic. Maybe people are in love with his story, or maybe he runs a better campaign and is smarter and more likable, I really don’t know. But he seems to be a winner, and Americans like winners. They think he would be a steady hand on the tiller in difficult seas. What do they think of McCain? They admire him for his sacrifices. But they do not think he’s got a steady hand on anything. He’s a “maverick” after all.
Of course anything can happen between now and election day. I would expect McCain’s hail mary’s to get increasingly more wild and desperate the closer we get to Nov. 4th. But unless some of them get caught, this recklessness and gambling will drive the electorate in Obama’s direction. Kaufman seems to think Obama’s appeal will evaporate and that McCain will win a convincing victory. This is wishful thinking. A McCain victory would be a squeaker at best, and the math is getting very difficult for him in multiple scenarios. Simply getting Palin to “exceed expectations” or “beat the spread” while convincing no one that she should be back-up president is not going to do it. Yes, people on average think she’s a fresh face and full of spunk. But no, they do not want her to be vice-president, much less president. Most people do not want the compulsive gambler McCain to be President either and I believe this fact will be very clear on Nov. 4th.
Oct 3, 2008 - 3:01 pm 55. Cichawoda:Calvin:
Oct 3, 2008 - 3:18 pm 56. Calvin:Did you look at the deficit graph? Can you tell me when the deficit grew and when it shrank? Did you read the “Patriot Act” or the “Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act” – simple questions I ask my students they can make up their own minds. I teach young adults in the evening – they are all very familiar with the financial situation. Wonder how you know what “most” teachers teach?
I am angry with the Republicans because they have not lived up to the promises of less government, less government intervention in the economy, less global intervention, more personal responsibility and freedom, more honesty and honor of government officials. Since Regan, after tying themselves to the Christian right they have steered ever closer to the Fascist ideal of binding business, church and government into a single force of oppression. I want the Republicans who believe in a free, progressive, forward looking America – just like the Founding Fathers intended. It sure ain’t the America Gidget and Geezer are going to deliver.
“Hey, cich, just as a hint, “zfacts” alerts everyone to your being a leftist. Just in case you were trying to pretend otherwise”
Is Howard Zinn running Zfacts? 538.com is another lefty leaning poll site that has some red state locks “leaning” blue. Cich, if you aren’t a Democrat, what are you with such rhetoric? I know no Independents, libertarians or Republicans with such cliches and unfounded anger. You also might want to check the spelling of the 40th president. Oh yeah, you’re a teacher. No worries.
“McCain is as much of a reformer as Bush is an intellect.”
True. Bush is smarter and more well-read than we realize, and McCain IS a reformer. Also, if you watched Palin at the RNC, in the debate or when interviwed with substance on Fox rather than 4th grade “gotcha” questions by juvenile Couric/Gibson (and their tiny ratings), she was great. Obama when on Oreilly with REAL questions, sounded like, well, Obama: stutters and cliches.
One more line I liked today — from hotair.com (another site liberals won’t read):
“Democrats love to call Dick Cheney “the most dangerous vice president” in American history, but why is Cheney such a danger? What has he done that makes him so dangerous? Is he more dangerous than Aaron Burr, for instance, who killed Alexander Hamilton while in office and who later attempted a rebellion of sorts? And if he’s so dangerous, what has Joe Biden done as a United States Senator to curb that danger?”
Oct 3, 2008 - 3:25 pm 57. nick:newnhdad is a moron
NH is Obama by 10
that is TEN
you only have 9 fingers?
Oct 3, 2008 - 3:27 pm 58. Puzzled Monkey:The delusion of this analysis and its comments boggles my mind.
Please invest in some strong NSAIDs, because you will need them for your post-election-day hangover.
All I see from McCain/Palin is proof by vehement assertion and begging the question — they assume the consequence to prove their position.
Since they’ve started sliding in the polls, all that’s left is to pull out hot button issues like gay marriage and abortion. But that won’t fly when people are keenly focused on the failure of the present administration on the economy.
Oct 3, 2008 - 3:30 pm 59. Cichawoda:lee:
Oct 3, 2008 - 3:35 pm 60. Calvin:There are 10 to 20mln illigals in the US (nobody know for sure). 2mln are in CA the rest all over the country. They are mostly employed by farmers, construction companies, food processors – doesn’t that sound like Republicans to you?
Little Nick, stop embarrassing yourself with typical liberal name calling.
Then stop embarrassing yourself by quoting from biased polls, proven to be wrong on numerous states in every election — as pointed out above.
Obama by 10 in NH? Give me a break. If ANY state’s a perfect set up for Mc, it’s NH.
Cich, you still cannot spell the 40th president’s name. Those “young adults” need a refund. As to your cliches about the Christian Right and the other guy’s cliches about abortion/gay marriages, these cliches lost steam a decade ago. It’s telling that you still go to those when the evangelicals have NO power and both sides generally agree on abortion (abortion is bad but a woman should still have the “right” to murder the unborn — though Obama is for infanticide and VERY far left there) and gay marriage (did you watch last night? same). As for less gov’t agreed, but that’s something the Dems are far worse on, so not sure why you’d give the bulk of the blame to the more fiscally responsible party. Under Obama, we’ll become Europe, or worse. It would make today’s economy look great. You should know that.
Have a good weekend, all.
Oct 3, 2008 - 3:43 pm 61. nlcatter:polls here
//www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html
Oct 3, 2008 - 3:55 pm 62. Cichawoda:Calvin:
Oct 3, 2008 - 3:59 pm 63. Cheri:If you claim that Bush is an intellectual – we must be living in different realities. Would you also claim that Reagan was lucid for the whole of his 2 terms? I am not angry but we are talking about the fundamentals and squandered opportunities. What we have lost since Reagan will be hard or maybe impossible to get back. What is saddest is that it was lost to gluttony and greed. For 30 years after WWII where able to reduce the deficit (cost of WWII), save European and Japanese economy, build the best roads and schools, go to the Moon, expand trade and expand a vision of freedom, democracy and prosperity that the whole world admired. The heroes of that time where the workers and the capitalists who worked hard, made profits and like true patriots paid their fair share of taxes. You want a great country – you have to pay for it. Reaganomics killed all that and this is where we are right now – biggest deficit in 50 years, our debt owned by Islamists and China our financial markets on the road to being nationalized. if you don’t think that is tragic – what kind of country do you think our Founding Fathers where thinking of?
I hardly need to second the kudos here, Ari. If everyone were as thoughtful and analytical as you are, they’d be Republicans! And you wouldn’t need to research and write this excellent piece. BTW, thanks, Marc Malone, for the advice. I hope one of McCain’s campaign managers will read it!
Oct 3, 2008 - 4:07 pm 64. Calvin:That defeatist, pessimistic rubbish is wrong and angering. Again, these are why young people are brainwashed: fools like you.
Reagan grew the economy after the most disastrous presidency, on many fronts, in US history: Carter.
I don’t know how you define “intellectual” but if it’s in terms of the overeducated elites who populate colleges along the coasts and the Big Ten, then no, thankfully Bush is not. But if it’s about decisions, honesty, historical knowledge, and keeping America (and rich, ungrateful liberals) safe for seven years after 9-11, then yes, Bush is.
Oct 3, 2008 - 4:07 pm 65. Calvin:That defeatist, pessimistic rubbish is wrong and angering. Again, these are why young people are brainwashed: fools like you.
Reagan grew the economy after the most disastrous presidency, on many fronts, in US history: Carter.
I don’t know how you define “intellectual” but if it’s in terms of the overeducated elites who populate colleges along the coasts and the Big Ten, then no, thankfully Bush is not. But if it’s about decisions, honesty, historical knowledge, and keeping America (and rich, ungrateful liberals) safe for seven years after 9-11, then yes, Bush is.
Billions WANT to move here, but b/c Euros who are being overrun by Jihadists don’t like us (or the media tells us they dont), you believe we’re doomed and shameful? Ugh.
Oct 3, 2008 - 4:08 pm 66. Cichawoda:Calvin:
“As to your cliches about the Christian Right and the other guy’s cliches about abortion/gay marriages…”
Why don’t we start by restoring some honor to the party and stop lying – read the official GOP Platform – what is written there is just a farce than the party is prostituting itself on the other hand if that is the real position than you are a lier.
Oct 3, 2008 - 4:11 pm 67. Cichawoda:The only thing that Reagan grew was the stash of the top 10%. They became fat and stupid and that’s why we are where we are right now. BTW many Democrats came along for the ride. When “Country First” means raking in the profits when times are good and raping the treasury when you mess up – soon we won’t have a country left.
Oct 3, 2008 - 4:25 pm 68. Marc Malone:If this last bailout for the rich does not work and we fall into a depression the cultural division that has been nurtured by the current Republican party might actually split the country. Wonder how the “beggar” states will do when they don’t have the “blue” states to support them.
Wow. Commentary here started well, then the Libs got on here and broke up the dialogue. Buzz-kills.
I, too, am from Washington State. I have to differ on their outlook. I agree that it looks like Dino Rossi will win handily, but I just refuse to believe that it will affect the down-ballot or the Prez race.
We here are figured to be more than 60% Dems or left leaning Indies. Healthcare and fiscal responsibility are the big issues here, as far as I can tell. McCain’s healthcare plan really is better, but too complex to explain why in a soundbite.
It really comes down to the fact that we have just about the highest educated populace in the land: something like 60%+ college grads. These types mostly vote Dem, after all the indoctrination they get. Pretty simple. Church attendance here isn’t really high, which is more typical for conservatives. This State will go Obama.
Oct 3, 2008 - 4:32 pm 69. Cichawoda:Are you people saying that all these polling companies are wrong?
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110944/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Leading-Points.aspx
http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081003/NEWS08/310039949/-1/news08
http://hamptonroads.com/2008/10/masondixon-poll-mccain-obama-neck-and-neck-virginia
Everything I see out there is tracking for Obama. I can make a bet that the next 2 debates will turn people to Obama because by than McCain will not be able to control his temper. This is not a faith based reality – wishful thinking will not make it so.
Oct 3, 2008 - 4:38 pm 70. Cichawoda:Marc Malone:
Oct 3, 2008 - 4:45 pm 71. nlcatter:Are you implying that “highest educated populace” can’t think for themselves but Church goers are independent thinkers? Wow!! How strange I can almost hear the music from the Twilight Zone.
CNN Biden 51 Palin 36
CBS Biden 46 Palin 21
Fox Biden 61 Palin 39
LoL
Oct 3, 2008 - 4:48 pm 72. Thomas:Ari, another fine bit of analysis. I’m convinced that the media are trying to make the McCain-Obama race closer than it actually is because they know the junior Senator from Illinois is not nearly as popular as some would lead us to believe he is. Take a look at how CNN loaded their poll after the first Presidential debate to get more Democrats than Republicans and Independents. If they had a more even mix, Obama would not be as decisive a “winner” in the poll. State by state, I think Obama can and will lose quite a few being counted in his column right now. If McCain can keep the national numbers within 5% until Election Day, he stands a good shot of winning.
Oct 3, 2008 - 5:24 pm 73. Ex-fetus:“NJ has signed on to the popular vote pact, which states that its electoral votes go to the winner of the national popular vote” Is that constitutional? It looks like some clever lawyer chap has found a loophole.
Traditionally, the Supreme court doesn’t like clever lawyers with loopholes.
Meanwhile, there will be court battles on this one. Like 2000, it will be settled in court. Not just the standard voter fraud issues, but it seems a Federal Judge has ordered Obama to provide his birth certificate. Or rather ordered the State of Hawaii to give it up. This led Obama to admit that he held dual citizenship until he was 18. The USA and Kenya. It will be interesting to see the lawyers go at that one. Is he a .5 natural born citizen? Is .5 enough? If .5 is enough, how about .25 or .125? If it is less then 100%, where is the line?
“The US Constitution (Article II, Section 1, Subsection 4) says: “No person except a natural born citizen, or a citizen of the United States, at the time of the adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the office of President; neither shall any person be eligible to that office who shall not have attained to the age of thirty-five years, and been fourteen years a resident within the United States.”
The term “natural born citizen” is not used anywhere else in the Constitution, and it has never been the subject of any federal court ruling. Hence, its exact meaning could be subject to controversy.”
“We will probably never really know whether an American citizen born outside the US can become President (or Vice-President) until a lawsuit involving such a candidate finds its way into the courts. This could happen, of course, if a foreign-born candidate were elected and the electoral college’s choice were challenged in court; or, more likely, if such a candidate’s right to federal campaign subsidies (matching funds) were questioned, or if a challenge were mounted against a foreign-born candidate’s right to be included on a state primary election ballot. ”
From here;
http://www.richw.org/dualcit/faq.html#president
http://texashillblog.wordpress.com/2008/10/02/federal-judge-orders-obama-to-produce-his-birth-certificate/
This might explain why Obama said he would take matching funds then flip flopped on it. He knew this would come up and has been trying to avoid being challenged. He is past the primary gurdle and ran around the matching funds hurdle, so now all he has to worry about is the Electoral challenge. And that will only matter if he wins.
Oct 3, 2008 - 5:44 pm 74. Betty C.:Pretty gutsy play. It does show a reckless disregard for the spirit of the Law and a ruthless ability to place personal ambition above EVERYTHING else.
Mac is far from the perfect candidate, but he does place his country above his own ambition.
nlcatter, you’d believe Stalin if he said anything, wouldn’t you?
CNN’s Poll vs. CNN’s Spin (Part Two)
Noah Pollak – 10.03.2008 – 3:32 PM
An astute commenter to a previous post notes something about CNN’s “poll” of VP debate viewers that on the one hand is utterly predictable, given CNN’s track record, yet is still appalling: CNN declares that its poll finds Biden the winner, but CNN never discloses any information about who participated in the poll. This would be like asking people whether they liked the Red Sox or the Yankees and not revealing what percentage of phone calls were made to Boston versus New York. Without that information, the results are more than worthless — they are manipulative.
CNN’s headline declares that “Debate Poll Says Biden Won.” CNN’s “news analysis” also is headlined (in part) “Biden Wins Debate.” Nowhere in either story does CNN reveal anything about its polling sample other than its total size (611 people). CNN’s poll of the presidential debate last week employed a respondent group in which Democrats were dramatically overrepresented, which predictably led to the result of Obama “winning” the debate.
You can read CNN’s poll stories here and here. The omissions in both should be glaring to anyone with even the slightest familiarity with how poll results are supposed to be reported. CNN deserves to be trusted on these matters about as much as Dan Rather deserves to be trusted with National Guard documents
Oct 3, 2008 - 6:04 pm 75. Jewish Jackhammer:This article is like a twisted version of the old saying, “Hope for the best and prepare for the worst.” Except your version is more like, “Hope for the best because the worst is impossible due to the way I view the world.”
It doesn’t give you pause that the only poll you trust (out of hundreds) is the one that proves your argument. Ok. Tough to argue with that.
Oct 3, 2008 - 6:10 pm 76. HamiltonJay:Cichawoda,
I don’t know the internals of all those polls, but I’ll tell you flat out without any hesitation that Rasmussen’s national polls are off.
Look at his admitted sampling targets.. he’s targeting 39 D, 33 R and 28 I.. 2004 turnout was 37D, 37R and 26 I… so off the top he’s given Fauxbama a 6 point lead just in his sampling. Do you really think 2004 turnout is going to suddenly see demorats gain 2% in their turnout numbers while republicans lose 4% in there’s?
Look at history, Democrats, no matter who they are don’t win 2 way races by more than squeekers. in the 20th century only 3 Democrats have won the white house by more than 50% of the popular vote in a 2 way race, FDR, LBJ and Carter… Carter squeeked by with 50.1% of the vote, and had Ford not gaffed in the debate, Carter would have lost. The other two.. LBJ won the 64 election on the heels of the Kennedy assassination by a big margin and FDR. That’s it, thats the entire democratic presidency with more than 50% of the popular vote in a 2 way race from 1900 on. In fact, to find a democrat who won by 50% or more of the popular vote before FDR in a 2 way race, you have to go back to the election of 1848.
Now, As to your comment that I don’t think anyone likes Fauxbama, I know some do, but my comments are regarding the rust belt, and there he is beyond struggling, he cannot afford to lose any of those states and on the ground he’s not winning them.
At the end of the Day Fauxbama has to hold every state Kerry won and gain 19 EC votes to win.. and I don’t see any calculus that Fauxbama pulls it off. IA is the only state I would say is likely to go Fauxbama, that’s +7, and he’s going to lose NH -5. Even if NM and CO go D, adding another 14, and manages to hold onto everything else Kerry won, he’s only up a net of 16.. close but no cigar
Now, I don’t for one minute believe that fauxbama will win all the rust belt states that Kerry had, but lets just say he pulls it off, he still loses. VA, OH and FL are not flipping.
In every poll I’ve seen where the internal demographics are published, Fauxbama has been down in EVERY demographic vs Kerry, with the exceptions of youth and blacks, and getting 5% more of the black vote than Kerry and 5-10% more of the youth vote is not enough to overcome what he’s lost in every other demographic compared to Fauxbama. I see no calculus that leads to a Fauxbama win come Nov, and I never have.
I think there’s a lot of created drama, but very little reality to back it up.
Now in a month we’ll know one way or another.
Oct 3, 2008 - 9:36 pm 77. nlcatter:and CBS and FOX
you are such a moron
link to poll results
Oct 3, 2008 - 10:05 pm 78. aoalead:http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/03/debate.poll/index.html
Having lived in Co. in the 80’s, it always seemed conservative, tho that was a generation ago. Still, knowing the Denver suburbs where I lived would be one of the most liberal places, that makes me believe that the rest of the state is quite conservative. I think the history of elections backs that up. These polls stun me that Obama is winning. But like others have said, they seem biased and if they really did predict that Kerry would win easily in 2004, that’s telling. I think Mc Cain might win Co., as most Republicans do.
Oct 3, 2008 - 10:54 pm 79. dont understand:could someone please tell me at what point this country started to put people down, specifically “east coast elitists” or “people on the coasts” for being educated and intelligent-minded? how is this a bad thing, and why would anyone want to distance themselves from the only rational thinking people in this country? i rather be well-informed and an elitist, than a sappy sucker listening to b.s. rhetoric about drilling and the surge.
Oct 3, 2008 - 11:09 pm 80. illinois:What might be interesting is to look at how Obama is doing in his own home state — where he should be winning by a landslide. The polls, which overrepresent the Chicago/ESL metro areas and the college towns (again, where you will find most progressive Dems — the rest of the state is fairly even between blue dogs, Republicans, and libertarian/independents from what I’ve observed), are running about 70 for, 30 against (I believe McCain, by comparison is running around 85/15 in Arizona last time I checked), and that isn’t taking in large chunks of the state. That means that roughly a third of the residents in his own home state (possibly more) are saying they aren’t voting for him. Illinios will go to him on election night, but the polling numbers in that state should be telling to the rest of the country.
Oct 4, 2008 - 12:12 am 81. Believer:No, you don’t understand much, “dont understand” –
Especially if you think “drilling” and “the surge” are B.S.
Oct 4, 2008 - 5:18 am 82. Linda F:Fascinating analysis. I hope it’s on target.
I noticed something you do that MANY other writers do – use the phrase McCain/Palin. I wrote about that on my blog:
I was struck by a phrasing I’ve noticed in many commentators, on TV, radio, newspaper, and Internet: he talks about Obama, but then uses the phrase McCain/Palin.
Think about it – Palin is considered influential enough to be an integral part of the ticket, mentioned in one breath. So, Obama, as planned by McCain, is running against 2 people – no wonder he looks tired lately.
Has anyone noticed they almost never mention Biden the same way?
Oct 4, 2008 - 5:59 am 83. rrobin:Here’s a video about this “financial crisis” I suggest we get out to every voter possible, all over the country, and I also understand that Sean Hannity’s America on Sunday night on Fox is going to focus on this in a very specific, hard-hitting way.
Oct 4, 2008 - 7:11 am 84. Cichawoda:Especially before this next debate, the exposure of this may wind up being the issue that actually sinks the Obama campaign.
http://tinyurl.com/3ud4qt
HamiltonJay:
Oct 4, 2008 - 8:45 am 85. Ray:“In every poll I’ve seen where the internal demographics are published”
can you give links to the polls you are talking about?
we put down east coast elitist b/c they are sheltered and clueless to the hard work & common sense of most Americans. And they are naive enough to fall for “hope” and “change” instead of patriotism, American exceptionalism, mom and pop shops and yes, the Surge
do you, like the dems who favor defeat and disrespect our soldiers, believe th surge failed? and do you not want to drill? everyone does. i guess if you have millions of $ and no cares, you dont worry about gas prices, but some of us do.
keep nominating lawyers and uber liberal dems and you’ll keep proving our points about clueless coastal elites
by the way, what % of military men do you think will vote for obama? like 10% at most. that’s telling. those guys know a lot more than some yale educated dude.
Oct 4, 2008 - 8:49 am 86. It’s All Coming Down to a Few Key States … | USA TERM LIMITS:[...] 1 [...]
Oct 4, 2008 - 9:09 am 87. Joe Y:“Don’t understand:” If you want to understand when dislike and distrust of the “eastern elites” began in our country, pick up the LIbrary of America’s “The Debate on the Constitution,” Part 1.
I am thrilled to say that the Jewish vote will be at least 40% for McCain. It’s extremely unpleasant, even suicidal (socially, I mean), in a group that has a vociferous clutch of Obama supporters to express any sort of dissent, but in private, we do confess to each other our support.
Oct 4, 2008 - 9:38 am 88. Believer:Linda F. makes a good point. Let’s not leave ol’ Joe out:
McCain/Palin vs. Obama bin Biden
Oct 4, 2008 - 10:06 am 89. Believer:Typing the address: “ace.mu.nu.” will get you to one flaming skull — the OJ headline.
Scroll down a bit further, to another flaming skull — and you get to Barney Frank’s “Fannie buddy.” Another disturbing angle on the Fannie/Freddie fiasco.
In the column to the left is a link to “Another Creepy Obama Cult Video” — where, if you saw the creepy Venice, Calif. kids — here are more of them ‘all grow’d up.’
He’s promised us he’ll change America and change the world. Like what you see so far?
Oct 4, 2008 - 10:29 am 90. Jimwriter:I’m quite interested in HamiltonJay’s findings in PA. Is it merely anecdotal? He seems VERY sure of himself, and I want desperately to believe he’s on target…but how could the MSM get it THAT wrong in PA? What about Obambi’s massive voter registration? What about Rendell (albeit a Hillary supporter) pushing Nobama? Or, is there word that Rendell will say the right things (a la Hillary..sort of..) to support Obama but NOT push his machine?
Is this an example of union leaders, who HAVE to publicly support Obama, quietly seeing among their rank and file a lack of enthusiasm for a guy who condescendingly describes these same union voters who happen to own guns and Bibles?
Inquiring minds in the Deep Red South want to know. The battle ain’t gonna be won here…McCain/Palin (especially Palin!) has us in the GOP fold.
Oct 4, 2008 - 11:34 am 91. Cichawoda:Ray:
“we put down east coast elitist b/c they are sheltered and clueless to the hard work & common sense of most Americans”
Funny that the “fly over states” are also mostly the beggar states – they take more out of the Federal budget than they put in. Guess the lazy liberals must be just lucky or somethin’. But what will most of the red states do when the blue states decide they don’t want to support them any more?
Oct 4, 2008 - 11:44 am 92. Believer:The MSM will do whatever it takes to help BO win.
Distorting or getting a poll wrong is peanuts compared to shirking their duty to give us fair and balanced information.
What they’ve failed to report regarding this fraud’s history is criminal.
I, too, hope HamiltonJay’s right. If I were sure, I think I’d be getting alot more sleep at night.
Oct 4, 2008 - 12:01 pm 93. Therese:Excellent analysis and I like the additional analytical comments being made by everyone. (Except the liberal trolls, who I notice come to disrupt the conversation instead of adding anything meaningful to it. Have you noticed how they like to pick fights?)
I hope that this analysis turns out to be true, because the media is making this race seem very close and like Obama is a shoo in. Are they purposely inflating Obama’s numbers in order to try to get McCain/Palin people to stay home? I wonder. I don’t understand the reason for overestimating Obama’s lead.
Also, I do believe that Obama’s numbers are inflated because of the “race baiting” that he has been doing. In some ways it is backfiring on him because the Obama people make it look like you’re a racist if you don’t vote for him. (Despite that fact that there are lots of other reasons why this man shouldn’t be POTUS.)
Thus, I think Obama’s “race baiting” in this election is working against him in polling. My feeling is that in order to not appear racist, or even possibly subject themselves to this accusation, people just say that they’re undecided. This makes the undecided numbers look much bigger than they really are.
I would love to see a McCain/Palin landslide!
Oct 4, 2008 - 12:34 pm 94. Believer:Thanks to “illinois” for pointing out BO’s fairly weak showing in his own state.
Commenters in the past on other threads – like “Ruby” – have told us how he’s failed them there. She said his hand was only out to get “greased.”
He and his buddies have destroyed those communities in pursuit of power and money. What they haven’t stripped from them physically, they’ve stripped from them spiritually.
I don’t want his full-on assault destroying our entire nation. And he’ll do it, I’ve no doubt.
Oct 4, 2008 - 1:03 pm 95. Sandra M:RCD said:
“McCain’s people simply haven’t focused on the right things through ads and talking points. Many opportunities have been missed. Conversely, Obama’s people are targeted in their spending…”
In 2004, I donated to the group that won the election for the Republicans, the Swift Boat Veterans.
This time around, I’ve donated to veteransforfreedom.com and if they changed their rules about selling my private info to others I’d donate to realchange.com.
I also donated to Russell who’s opposing John Murtha.
I have little faith in McCain’s people. Look how they almost screwed up Sarah Palin.
We’ve all become increasingly disgusted with politics and turned away. There are some very good Republicans. It’s time for others to get involved and plan on running two years from now. Follow Sarah’s path. Got PTA experience? Run for office. Politics is fun when it’s a battle of ideas.
Just as Reagan attracted conservative and libertarian intellectuals to his battle to defeat communism — which he did in a game of high stakes poker with the Soviets that put us in debt but without the loss of life of our military, Sarah will attract a small or not so small army of supporters.
Oct 4, 2008 - 1:09 pm 96. BrettB:I have to tell you.
You Obamabots (o blessed of massive emptysuit)need to understand that just about every poll out there is cooked for this phony.
Most of these firms are oversampling dems by almost 10%. I have never seen that before. Its usually 4-6. I just dont get it.
What we are seeing through the MSM is what they did to Hillary in the primary. End the election as soon as possible even though the guy couldn’t convince a majority of his own party to go with him.
We all now know Zerobama (o blessed of massive emptysuit)couldnt finish her off and had to be ’selected’.
All of these swing states and even blue states he lost big in the primary are now supposed to “magically” go his way just like that? When has a democrat ever won the presidency by losing CA,NY,OH,PA,FLA,TX, all in a primary? Or a republican for that matter?
Never!
Oct 4, 2008 - 1:26 pm 97. razib:“it’s intrepid but he’s just mentioning obvious states that both should win. aside from colorado, where is there anything debatable or a “joke”? seems accurate enough, and thorough to me…”
sorry, you’re right. forgot how many stupid people there are in the world
(yeah, talkin’ to you calvin)
Oct 4, 2008 - 1:56 pm 98. Galen:Working in southern virginia for the obama campaign, I have seen so many people both black and white concede that job loss has become a paramount issue in determining which way they will vote. The face that they are white, in your subtle implication, does not mean they will vote republican. Job loss has hit so hard in fact that people have caught on that McCain’s unmentioned policies encourage more job outsourcing, while Obama is openly professing the establishment of a green industry with jobs offered for all those people who got laid off at, oh I don’t know, a textile factory for example. Such a case just so happens to be more and more common here.
Oct 4, 2008 - 2:32 pm 99. Regulus:We need McCain. The world (and me for that matter) isn’t ready for the “Socialist States of America.”
Keep Obama out.
Oct 4, 2008 - 3:02 pm 100. rspar:Does anyone really thing young voters are going to turn out in any numbers, for the first time in history? That’s where Obama hopes are young inexperienced voters or the lack of.
Oct 4, 2008 - 4:34 pm 101. Bruce:RICH AMERICAN MUSLIM MAY HAVE HELPED OBAMA INTO HARVARD LAW SCHOOL
CHatham Republican Town Committee ^ | 10/4/08 | staff
Posted on Saturday, October 04, 2008 16:40:57 by pissant
When Barack Obama was seeking to get into Harvard Law School (he entered in the fall of 1988) he had the assistance of Khalid Al-Mansour, a Black Muslim and Black Nationalist who was a “mentor” to the founders of the Black Panther party at the time the party was founded in the early 1960s.
There is some suggestion that Mansour had provided financial assistance to Obama for Harvard Law School, though the Obama campaign denies this.
Obama has refused all requests that Harvard and Columbia open up his records for examination, as he has refused requests to have the official birth records of the State of Hawaii opened to resolve questions that have been raised about his place of birth. [Nonetheless Columbia confrmed Obama graduated in 1983 with a degree in political science, but without honors.]
At that time Obama was applying to Harvard Law School he was a community organizer in Chicago working with, among others, ACORN, the national housing advocacy group that has been involved many times in cases of fraudulent voter registration. Mr. Mansour lives in Texas. Since Mansour is described as a black Nationalist, it is possible that the Nation of Islam’s Louis Farrakhan might be the person who put Obama and Mansour together. Farrakhan was a close friend of Jeremiah Wright, a former Muslim, whose church Obama was attending.
Mansour refused to comment one way or the other about his Obama connection.
Here’s the gist of the story:
[Former Manhattan Borough president Percy Sutton told a New York cable channel that a former business partner who was “raising money” for Obama had approached him in 1988 to help Obama get into Harvard Law School.
In the interview, Sutton says he first heard of Obama about twenty years ago from Khalid Al-Mansour, a Black Muslim and Black Nationalist who was a “mentor” to the founders of the Black Panther party at the time the party was founded in the early 1960s.
Sutton described al-Mansour as advisor to “one of the world’s richest men,” Saudi prince Alwaleed bin Talal.
Prince Alwaleed catapulted to fame in the United States after the September 11 attacks, when New York mayor Rudy Guiliani refused his $10 million check to help rebuild Manhattan, because the Saudi prince hinted publicly that America’s pro-Israel policies were to blame for the attacks.
Sutton knew Al-Mansour well, since the two men had been business partners and served on several corporate boards together.
As Sutton remembered, Al-Mansour was raising money for Obama’s education and seeking recommendations for him to attend Harvard Law School.
“I was introduced to (Obama) by a friend who was raising money for him,” Sutton told NY1 city hall reporter Dominic Carter. “The friend’s name is Dr. Khalid al-Mansour, from Texas.”
That Obama had substantial ties to rich, influential Muslim radicals in 1988 at age 26 or 27, long after he had left Indonesia and about the time he joined Jeremiah Wright’s church is surprising, if true.
UPDATE: Later a press release from a “spokesman for the Sutton family” said that Percy Sutton’s memory was faulty (he was 88) and his account should be disregarded. Timmerman, the author of the initial report, contacted the Sutton family who said they knew nothing of the press release or the person said to be their spokesman and that Percy’s mind was sharp. The Obama campaign denied the report and referred Timmerman to the “spokesman,” but Timmerman went to the family instead.
Oct 4, 2008 - 5:47 pm 102. Jerry Cohen:On the day before the New Hampshire primary, the Real Clear polls had Obama up by an average of 8.3%–landslide territory. But a funny thing happened on the way to his coronation; Hillary surged eleven points in just a twenty four hour period and won. Obama’s support is soft. With the hysterical bailout news cycle done, and Sarah now taking the lead, the conservative base will be energized. A base which still represents the majority.
Oct 4, 2008 - 6:17 pm 103. Northern Light:I think this was a very interesting article. I am not a conservative, or even an American. We Canadians are having an election right now, but I have to admit your election is much more interesting than ours.
There seems to be a lot of denouncement of polls I have read along with the mainstream media there. I have never found the MSM in the States to be very liberal, but I might be coloured by the fact that our MSM here is a bit more liberal than yours (like everything else in Canukastan).
Personally, from what I’ve read I would have included Virginia in an assessment of key states. Virginia has a large military establishment that one would think leans (at least) towards McCain. However, recent migrants to the state would be mainly supporting Obama. I find this fascinating and I will be watching Virginia on election night.
It seems the majority of people on this site are Republican supporters. I would ask you why you would want to win this election. Your economy is already in the toilet and the flush will hit pretty early in ‘09. If the GOP is wiped out in November the Democrats will take the blame when the fertilizer hits the oscillator. Take the hit and lose the House, the Senate, and the White House. Rebuild the party. Offer another contract for America in 2010, clean up in the midterms and retake the White House in 2012.
In Canada our Conservative Party is about to win a majority government. Unless oil prices stay high, the next few years here will be very bad news for the Conservative Party. A victory can be a defeat in disguise.
Oct 4, 2008 - 6:35 pm 104. Believer:Interesting to return here to read “Bruce’s” post at 5:47PM right after jogging my memory re BO’s support by terrorists, including this post at PJM:
Steve Gill’s “Why Isn’t Obama Bothered by Terrorist Support” on May 15, 2008.
Palestinians “calling random Americans to vote for Obama”…what was the quote by Gill…”Phone banks by day, rockets at night.” Something to think about.
Oct 4, 2008 - 7:22 pm 105. Believer:“rspar” — it’s all about getting out the vote – getting the voters to the polls — Team BO is well-organized in this regard I’m sure. Drivers taking people to polls.
I know the Dems in ‘04? vandalized – slashed the tires on a large number of Repub buses/vans rented for the day to do just that: get voters to the polls.
Also, absentee ballots are used and encouraged – probably for college kids in particular who won’t be home most likely to vote next month. It’s all done through the mail.
Let’s hope McCain is equally well-organized to get out the vote.
Oct 4, 2008 - 7:42 pm 106. AA:If you, and all these commenters, actually believe this analysis then put your money where you mouth is – go make a killing in the prediction markets.
Right now, this race isn’t close at all and Obama is running away with it – McCain need something dramatic to happen in the next four weeks.
Oct 4, 2008 - 10:00 pm 107. Marc Malone:NorthernLights – That’s a great theory about the forthcoming wreck, but it just ain’t so. The Dems and the press have been talkning down our economy, but it just isn’t that bad. Look at the actual economic numbers. Only a few States are suffering.
Regardless, we’re truly afraid that oif Obama wins, we’ll never again have an honest election. Either that, he’ll wreck the economy beyond repair. Or the Fundamentalists will get out of hand. Or we’ll become totally socialized like Europe. Or…. This guy is truly dangerous. I know a Hitler-type when I see one, even in disguise.
Oct 4, 2008 - 11:13 pm 108. nlcatter:Mccain does not have organization
did you forget his age? his upporters have problem finding their “Depends”.
Oct 4, 2008 - 11:17 pm 109. nlcatter:Clinton Cried on monday!
voters like tears
Oct 4, 2008 - 11:23 pm 110. Marc Malone:Cichawoda – I was merely pointing out a well-established fact of the corollary between higher education/liberal and churchgoing/conservative. I live here. I’ve followed it for some time. I’ve seen it with my own eyes.
As far as flyover territory being the “beggars”, they simply have larger areas with less population. These open areas are the future for the country. What will they do if the blue States cut them off? Not feed the blue States.
Regardless, the States and cities with Pub executives do far better than those with Dem execs. All the worst cities are run by Dems, like Detroit and Chicago. Look at the turnaround in NY with Pubs at the helm. Maybe the churchgoing is actually good for something, hmm?
Oct 4, 2008 - 11:32 pm 111. Ari J Kaufman:Responding to some questions, as always, because I am not Couric, Gibson, Olbermann or Matthews:
1. I covered Virginia in my last article:
http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/seven-states-that-will-decide-the-election/
2. To those who asked, yes, I have been steadfast in my belief McCain will win, despite odds against him (media, schools, biased polls, $, my fellow pessimistic McCain supporters) because I travel, think, reason, study history, remove emotion, etc. And if you look at these comments, there are MANY sentient folks who have explained how these polls are flawed, and often, like in 2004, totally WRONG.
3. As to those who focused on Colorado, the questions were answered in 2004 and here by a commenter: “the polls for the state gate Kerry and Both HUGE landslide victories here (15 and 20 points), yet Bush trounced them each hard here. I do blame the polls, because I don’t think they actually do poll outside of Denver and Boulder.” Again too, Colo Spgs., as I noted, is a huge city and solid GOP. There are only so many filthy rich ski areas voting for Obama. And are most of those people year-round residents? I think I am more than fair overall with my analysis of that state.
4. The guy who described the views of the local and nat’l scene in Missouri is correct. I just happened to drive across and around the Show-Me-State last weekend (think the CNN folks have done that lately?) on my own dime and time (I care about accuracy & honesty), so McCain, despite trailing in some silly polls likely only taken in STL and KC, will win there — easily. The man’s comments ring true: “However at the presidential level it’s reversed. McCain/Palin signs easily outnumber Obama/Biden signs outside about 2 to 1 – I’d say in Missouri at least Obama’s support is a mile wide and an inch deep, push comes to shove this state is McCain’s for the taking.”
5. Another hilariously biased poll site. Indiana in play? Is Texas too?
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
This is actually treated as a reputable poll, quoted on CNN & MSNBC. Look who it’s run by (visit the site)
6. To the man who advised McCain backers to put $ up, I know PLENTY who are — in the thousands — and they’re very confident. Are you betting? The Obama supporters are the millionaires and billionaires of the world.
7. To this “nlclatter” fellow who likes to call names like a child, make fun of people’s age, and quote biased polls, try this on — more proof:
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews2.dbm?ID=928
Before polls had even closed in the 2004 presidential election, pollster John Zogby predicted a comfortable win for John Kerry (311 electoral votes, versus 213 for Bush, with 14 too close to call), saying that “Bush had this election lost a long time ago,” adding that voters wanted a change and would vote for “any candidate who was not Bush.”
Like in 1972, wait for the Silent Majority.
Republicans, conservatived and independents/moderates do not fall in love with their candidates; they fall in line. And they win — 8 of the past 11 if they triumph in this one.
Like good children, the Dems can only win by cheating — and Obama is well-schooled in that due to his time with the corrupt Chicago machine. This is the only possible way BHO can win — from someone “inside”:
I believe the voter fraud which will take place in this election will be unlike anything we’ve seen before. The Republicans are simply unable to prevent it from happening. Obama, I believe, is raising substantial portions of his campaign money illegally from overseas. An FEC whistleblower has said as much, but he can’t get the FBI, the FEC or anyone else to open an investigation. ACORN is doing the dirty work in the voter fraud effort for Obama. I believe Indiana is one of the states targeted for these efforts, along with Colorado, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Michigan Virginia and Wisconsin. Every close state could tip in favor of Obama because of these efforts.
8. When McCain wins, will we still have to read CNN and CBS’ polls in 2012, even after they’ll be wrong again — completely wrong — in 2008?
Oct 5, 2008 - 7:29 am 112. Cichawoda:Marc Malone:
Oct 5, 2008 - 11:04 am 113. SAF:Do you think the 2000 election was honest? What exactly are the Democrats doing to defraud the elections? About “The Dems and the press have been talkning down our economy” are you saying that Bush, Paulson and Bernanke are Democrats?
As for feeding the donor states the biggest Blue of the blues – California can feed all the blue states and with all the money we would save if we wanted to we could just import all our food from France. Trying to link Obama to Muslims and Hitler just shows how low you people have sunk – no shame or dignity. Of all the sinners in the world God hates bigots and hypocrites the most.
I am looking forward to visiting this site after Nov 4.
Osama Bin Laden has defeated us. Economy in shambles and when one reads the discourse of left vs. right in this and other comment threads you realize how utterly divided as a nation we are at this juncture in time.
Those of you who call and think that Sarah Palin is stupid, Joe Biden smart and will vote for Obama will be in for a rude awakening when he doesn’t deliver. I for one don’t know if McCain would do any better but I have no illusions about that.
The civil war was a cake walk compared to where we are going.
Oct 5, 2008 - 11:11 am 114. Cichawoda:“An FEC whistleblower has said as much, but he can’t get the FBI, the FEC or anyone else to open an investigation.” – so you are saying that there is a believable whistle blower and the Republican apointed heads of the FBI and FEC will not follow the lead? And the McCain campaign is spending thier money and effort with troopergate and not Obama’s campain fraud? Have any reliable links to share? If not – I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.
Oct 5, 2008 - 11:19 am 115. Northern Light:With the ACORN thing – you still just don’t like the fact that poor minorities can vote. Give me some links to prosecutions and outcomes – you know where they are.
I re-read Mr. Kaufman’s earlier article because I wanted to see his views on Virginia. Naturally he has placed the state on the McCain side of the ledger.
It seems that Mr. Kaufman, between his two interesting articles has stated it comes down to a few key states namely: Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Mississippi, Iowa, New Mexico, New Hampshire, West Virginia, Missouri, Louisiana, South Carolina, North Dakota, Montana, Maine, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Colorado, and a McCain win in New York (?!). Perhaps he could combine the two articles and call it “18 States Will Decide The Election”.
One thing I noticed. In the earlier article Mr. Kaufman seemed to have more faith in the polls than he does this time. Perhaps because McCain was doing better in the polls when he wrote it.
In 1990 Ontario (it’s a Canadian Province. Think of it as Canada’s biggest “state”) elected a party called the NDP. The NDP are much more socialist than any serious American party could ever be. Many conservatives here were scratching their heads because they didn’t vote for them and none of their conservative friends did. Beware of conclusions drawn based on what you see and hear. People tend to see what they want to see and only talk to people who agree with them.
At this point all polls seem to have Obama leading McCain by much more than the margin of error. It’s all fine and dandy to say that everything is rigged and the media is taking sides, but you have to wonder if there isn’t a certain amount of irrational denial involved.
Frankly, I have decided I would like to see McCain elected president. I’d tell you why, but you wouldn’t like it.
I strongly believe that Obama will win. This is bad news for the Democratic Party and American liberalism. I’d tell them why, but they wouldn’t like it either.
Oct 5, 2008 - 4:00 pm 116. Cichawoda:I seems to be boiling down to the economy for most Americans. I did some precinct work this weekend and I was surprised how many angry, fiscally conservative Republicans there are out there cursing the republican party for what it has done to free market ideals. Have a look at this site for more insight on McCain. http://www.keatingeconomics.com/
Oct 5, 2008 - 8:44 pm 117. Ari K.:Northern light, thanks for the insight.
I believe Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Colorado will decide the election. Obama needs PA, since Kerry carried that in 2004, and then just Ohio plus Colorado after that to win — assuming he flips Iowa and NM which I will give him for now. If he loses Ohio, which I believe he will, Obama needs CO and historically Republican VA along with PA to come close. Not easy.
On the other side, McCain only needs to hang onto the three Bush states (OH, VA and CO)to win. I admit he’ll possibly lose Iowa and NM, but he’ll also easily pick up NH. But if McCain wins PA, he can lose about 4-5 Bush states and still win. Despite the silly polls, common sense favors MCcain as someone like Obama (no experienced, radical politics, nefarious associates, no leadership ability) is going to have a hard time winning 3-5 “red” states. Bush won by 35 electoral votes, and McCain is A LOT more popular nationally than Bush was then, and Obama is a lot more feared and unproven than Kerry. Hope that helps…
Oct 6, 2008 - 8:56 am 118. Therese:Ari K.
Oct 6, 2008 - 9:20 am 119. Ari K.:I really appreciate your coming back to the boards to answer criticisms and defend your analysis. Thank you!
Thanks. As someone who has a full time (non-writing) job, I feel this is what separates us “bloggers” or freelance writers from the mainstream blowhards, who even though this IS their full time job, would never bother to do such. It gives places like PJM and, hopefully, me, a tad more credibility.
Oct 6, 2008 - 9:46 am 120. Cichawoda:Ari K.:
“common sense favors MCcain as someone like Obama” – since Reagan the Republicans have been on the road to tanking this country while a few of them have made out like bandits. The economy has tanked, our reputation as the shining house on the hill has tanked, the Islamists and China now own most of our National debt which has hit a 50 year high (not counting the bailout) – we can’t even afford to have our own space program “in two years Star City (out side of Moscow) will be the only place to send astronauts from any nation to the International Space Station”
So what have the Republicans done for this country? After such a complete flop how can it be “common sense” to want more of the same.
BTW: I have been doing some precinct work over the weekend – people do understand who got us into this mess and they are not going to take it anymore (even the racist’s pocketbooks are hurting so much that they will vote for Obama’s white half)
Oct 6, 2008 - 11:25 am 121. Cichawoda:Ari K.:
Oct 6, 2008 - 11:33 am 122. Calvin:“Days from becoming the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history, Lehman Brothers steered millions to departing executives even while pleading for a federal rescue…” – tell that to the average, conservative, working class voter and than ask him to vote for mister “I don’t know how many houses I own” – you can’t make the social issues work any more because the Republican party has caused to much pain.
socialism, social engineering, cozying up to our enemies and gauging the military defense fund — as Clinton did — will definitely put us on the track? Don’t you realize it was the LIBERAL economic policies of Republicans that got us into this mess? I thought, judging by past posts, you were at least a fiscal conservative, but apparently you, like the left, want it both ways…
Just look at any article on this site on a given day to understand which party was buddy buddy with socialist/racist programs like Fannie/Freddie
the only racists i know are rich libs who “enslave” minorities w/ welfare programs and treat them as subhumans when buying their vote in 2008 instead of how their Democratic ancestors enslaved them from 1607-1865 before the GOP and 600K heroes freed ‘em
no difference
Oct 6, 2008 - 11:34 am 123. tom:excellent analysis Ari
and thank you for it’s calming effects
let me add – take a look at the 2004 election by counties
http://www.princeton.edu/~rvdb/JAVA/election2004/
and the 2008 map link below it
Apply Ari’s comments and it holds well for Colorado, Penn, Ohio and Florida for McCain, Virgina and North Carolina even more so
strong showing in the debates and direct demo ties to fannie/freddie collapse will help to strengthen this
Oct 6, 2008 - 11:50 am 124. Ari K:Cich, this is the last time I’ll say it, because though fiscal matters are not my area of expertise, but I do know what you’re trying to do — and though it has little to do with my article, it irks me that you, as others have noted, are trying to play both sides.
I AGREE the GOP has become too fiscally liberal, so exactly why, of ALL times, would we choose the far left party which will make things FAR worse with their left-leaning policies. We already blame the GOP for becoming the party of big gov’t, so why would the intelligent people in the swing states vote in a party who will spend MORE and clearly make things worse, economically.
Ok, enough. I have been quite nice here. Now I must go back to work. My views and predicitions stands. I am consistent.
Oct 6, 2008 - 12:00 pm 125. David:I like your analysis, Ari. Unlike the media, you are focusing on the everyday “real” people who actually are going to shape the election. The frenzied college students and far-left radicals are a loud, but small group. Many of which will be too stoned to remember to vote this November.
Oct 6, 2008 - 4:37 pm 126. nlcatter:http://www.pollster.com/polls/fl/08-fl-pres-ge-mvo.php?xml=http://www.pollster.com/flashcharts/content/xml/08FLPresGEMvO.xml&choices=Obama,McCain&phone=&ivr=&internet=&mail=&smoothing=&from_date=&to_date=&
min_pct=&max_pct=&grid=&points=1&lines=1&colors=
hahahahhahaha
Oct 6, 2008 - 8:54 pm 127. nlcatter:http://voices.kansascity.com/node/2313
ROFLMGO
Oct 6, 2008 - 8:56 pm 128. Peggy:Thank-you very much for this article. I’d been following the polls and becoming very upset with them. Somehow I felt they just could not be as accurate as they want us to believe. I still want to have faith in the American people to be able to see through all the pure hogwash that our media is feeding us this election. I hope by favoring Obama in the polls by over polling the percentage of democrats, that it backfires on them, causing McCain/Palin voters to be absolutely certain they take the time to vote for their candidates.
Oct 7, 2008 - 1:13 pm 129. HamiltonJay:Jimwriter:
I’m quite interested in HamiltonJay’s findings in PA. Is it merely anecdotal? He seems VERY sure of himself, and I want desperately to believe he’s on target…but how could the MSM get it THAT wrong in PA?
Jim,
This is the same MSM and polling that was reporting that PA was neck and neck in the Primary polling for Hillary V Fauxbama in PA…. Hillary absolutely pasted Fauxbama, and beat him by 9 points in the primary here. Trust me, there is a LOT more on the ground here in the rust belt than the national pundents or the MSM or even the polling outfits are capturing.
They get hung up on the Democratic registration disadvantage of R’s here every cycle, failing to understand that while D’s do outnumber in registrations a significant amount, the D’s here are not New England, North Eastern Ds… There are a lot of Blue Dog/Reagan Dems, they are socially conservative, fiscally conservative and are registered D primarily because of their family backgrounds in blue collar work like mining, factories etc. They aren’t liberal north eastern dems.
The Rust Belt is won or lost on the backs of blue collar white voters, the same voters Fauxbama LOST among his own democratic party faithful here by a huge margin in the primaries. He’s done nothing to solve his problems with these voters. He’ll get the D’s who are party robots who vote D no matter if it be Mickey Mouse as the candidate, but he’s got major problems outside that core. Its not just in PA folks but across the rust belt.
Rendell is in the bag for Hillary, and always has been, he is doing nothing but token efforts for Fauxbama, and the state machine is and will not be mobilized for him. Rendell spent literally over a year doing nothing but campaigning for Hillary… word on the street is he was promised a cabinet position for his help to her. He, like she knows Fauxbama goes down in flames, she’s the defacto candidate in 2012.
The “support” Rendell has been giving is the same backhanded support that the Clinton’s have been giving. The state machine will not be firing on all cylinders for Fauxbama.
PUMA’s are another issue, like or not there are women who are going to vote for a woman, regardless of political party.. will it be all? Of course not, but Kerry took the state by about 2.5% of the votes cast, every little bit that takes away from traditional democratic voters is that much less Fauxbama has.
PA only goes D when everything in the state is working for the D candidate and the grassroots and traditional groups are fully behind the D.. and that’s not the case this year.
During the primaries, the Unions went to hillary here and told her, you want our support you must promise NOT TO PUT FAUXBAMA ON THE TICKET! Think maybe these leaders knew something? Now those same leaders are trying to sell this empty suit and they don’t believe in him and the rank and file are pretty much saying “no sale”.
Oh, and just for the record, the democratically controlled state congress today decided to take the rest of the year off, while at the same time announcing a $3 BILLION dollar shortfall.. oh and lets not forget they get an automatic 5% COLA raise before the end of the year too.
Fauxbama from day one has been running a “cult of personality” campaign, and that’s not a campaign strategy that is going to win you the rust belt voters folks. May fly in Cali, Chicago, and the NE, but its a doom strategy in the rust belt.
Oct 7, 2008 - 1:51 pm 130. Thomas:When I was in graduate school, I had two professors tell me that media-run polls are jokes. After CNN’s lame attempt to try to help Obama snatch victory from the jaws of defeat by over-polling Democrats, I have serious doubts that the polling being done in this election is credible. Even the more respectable polling companies are suspect. But why would you expect accurate polling from an industry that has admitted repeatedly over this past year or so that they’re pro-Obama?
Oct 7, 2008 - 4:31 pm 131. Cichawoda:How could anybody trust this man with having access to the button:
Oct 8, 2008 - 9:03 am 132. California Mike:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fAyK-enrF1g
What an ugly human being – thinks that telling rape jokes is just him being himself.
I think this a great article Ari! However, I think this year may swing to Obama for the simple fact that President Bush’s approval rating is at an all time low and many Americans may think that the election of McCain will be another continuation of Bush.
The latest gallup poll shows Obama ahead by 10 points (51-41) as of 10/9.
The polls do not appear to be a landslide victory for either side and your premise that this election will come down to less than 7 critical battleground states will most likely be correct.
I’m just not confident McCain can make up the difference in time.
Oct 10, 2008 - 2:49 pm 133. Quinty:I’m not sure when it happened but it must of been recently. I noticed it for the first time when I opened a daily free Washington DC publication for metro riders: MCCAIN LOSING SUPPORT IN CRITICAL SWINGSTATES the article read. Naturally, the article then transitioned into a series of quotes from clearly democratically-biased parties. A construction worker who voted for Bush says: ____; A VA based lawyer who worked with Ronald Regan stated _____; and many more just like that. Quite a shock that a black construction worker and a lawyer who probably spent his whole life in the highly democratic maryland, support Barack Obama. Clearly, this is the most lucid picture of public conception.
With slanderous, defamatory, and shoddily researched pieces appearing regularly in publications across the country about BOTH CANDIDATES, it is refreshing to see a well-written article that appeals to true investigative journalism. I happen to think Mr. Kaufman is right on the money with his points, and given the extent of his research and the outlining of his analytical method behind such research, it’s hard to argue with his conclusions. As I’ve come to expect, Kaufman’s article was also aesthetically, a pleasure to read–but like the media’s slanted portrayal of public opinion, this no longer comes as a surprise…
Oct 13, 2008 - 6:58 am 134. foxtrot:Well doneand read more than once,but I do have a question since this article was written early October and it is now near the middle of October and now that my state (Ohio)is well entrenched (more like to the kneck!)into the acorn voter fraud of thousands and Jennifer Brunnner given the go ahead to endoesed these phony votes. What will happen to are state? It is so troubleingto say the least. I am thogh meeting so many former dems like myself who will now vote republican right down the line and hve met McCain pollworkers who tell the same thing . We aren’ going to take this phoney election sitting down but can this couneract the phoney vote for a fraudulent candidate?This is a dispicable election alrightand the dems can not win.
Oct 13, 2008 - 9:29 pm 135. foxtrot:sorry for the bad spelling! It must be time to go to sleep but even sleep is becoming a difficult thing to do with this stinken obama idiot stealing and cheating .G-d if he gets elected…….!goodnight,hope i can have a good answer to my question
Oct 13, 2008 - 9:37 pm 136. Ari:Foxtrot:
The American people are too smart to elect a deplorable person with NO experience like Obama.
Even with the cheating and racism from the left, there are, thankfully, millions more hard working farmers, businessmen and ordinary citizens who will push McCain over the top than left wing bigots, professors, lawyers, collegians, blacks voting for him ONLY due to his skin color and white guilt latte elites.
I know this b/c I travel and speak to them. The elite media does NOT. They lie.
Oct 14, 2008 - 10:50 am 137. conservative chick:I really appreciate the careful analysis you have done here. My husband has been convinced of a McCain victory all along. The absolute hyperventilating of the conservative base is driving me nuts. Everyone needs to buck up and get to work. I just voted absentee in Florida, and so did all my military friends here in Hawaii (so many military vote in FL because of the taxes). There is a huge group of people up in N. Florida that will not vote for Obama, and now that he’s offending the Jews I don’t see Florida any color but red either.
Oct 17, 2008 - 3:16 am 138. Ari:conservative chick:
My wife’s family resides north of orlando, and even though that’s much more “liberal” than Jacksonville or Pensacola, they, being good Catholic conservatives, notice a difference from very liberal south Florida where they lived prior. Tampa is also right-leaning. FLA is one state McCain should easily win, thus, I have no idea/explanation for why the media is lying saying BHO is ahead in polls. Yes, many elderly Jews — different from liberal young Jews in DC, NY, LA, Boston et al, will support McCain. Ditto New Hampshire, Indiana, North Carolina and probably Virginia and ColoradO: all states McCain will keep or turn red on his way to victory…
Oct 20, 2008 - 1:03 pm