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MacWorld Without Steve Jobs
Macolytes — and Apple stockholders — go wild worrying about the CEO's health.
I understand the natural desire for privacy, but Jobs is wrong in this case. Some analysts estimate that his value to the company could be more than 20% of market capitalization, which could be as high as $20 billion based on recent market capitalization. A false report of a heart attack sent Apple stock down 10% in a matter of minutes, while his surprise appearance on a conference call caused the stock to go up 10%.
I tend to believe that Apple understands securities law and would disclose material information about Jobs’ health. Regardless of the state of his health, there does seem to be some logic behind Apple’s and Job’s decision to pull out of Macworld. By having Phil Schiller, vice president of marketing for Apple, do the opening speech of Macworld this year, Apple is showing the depth of its management team and giving him world wide exposure. In a sense, they are starting to plan the succession that so many analysts have urged them to do for years.
As for Apple’s leaving MacWorld entirely, the company may no longer want to be tied to the schedule of MacWorld. The iPhone was not quite ready for its unveiling at Macworld 2007, but Apple had no choice but to introduce it then or disappoint the whole world.
Apple may want to leave MacWorld at the top of their game before they have jumped the shark. Like everybody else, they have seen the recent dire economic statistics and know that it will probably affect their company’s future bottom line. They have developed two iconic products in the last seven years; the company may not have anything yet in the pipeline that will come close to matching their appeal. (I can imagine the Macolytes gnashing their teeth at that comment.)
Apple’s leaving Macworld may also have some symmetry with their decision to drop the word “computer” from their corporate name several years ago. The appeal for their products has branched out from just the technology aficionados. It has been reported that the Queen of England has an iPod.
I hope that Jobs has learned a lesson from this recent spate of rumors. It is time for him to appoint a number 2. This hysteria is fueled in part by his refusal to do so. His reluctance to discuss succession is somewhat understandable after his disastrous appointment of former Pepsi CEO John Sculley as Apple CEO, which led to the banishment of Jobs from his own company. Steve has a responsibility to Apple shareholders to get over that incident and plan for a Jobs-less Apple
The lack of a succession plan seems especially silly when there is an excellent candidate waiting in the wings. Jonathan Ive has received world wide renown, even a CBE from the Queen of England, for being the principal designer of the iMac, Powerbook, iPod, and iPhone. Some say that his leaving Apple would be a greater loss than if Jobs left.
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Laura Goldman worked on Wall Street for 25 years for such firms as Merrill Lynch and Paine Webber. She now owns her own money management firm, LSG capital, in Tel Aviv, Israel.
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7 Comments
1. DougS:Actually, I suspect that Schiller or Tim Cook are better candidates than Jon Ive to replace Jobs, if/when the time comes. Ive has proven himself an excellent designer, but that’s not the same as actually running the company.
Jan 5, 2009 - 1:03 am 2. DougS:As something of a Macolyte myself, I would like to add that the majority of worry about Jobs’ health that I’ve seen in print, blogs or blog comments is either authoritative-sounding pronouncements by people who seem totally ignorant about what is publicly known of Job’s medical history or about pancreatic cancer itself; hysterical speculation; or me-too comments riding the coattails of such hysterical speculation.
I learned more than ever wanted to know about pancreatic cancer when my father was diagnosed with it. He subsequently died of it, but he had the common form of the disease. Jobs was diagnosed with the rarer form — the kind that is actually treatable with a reasonable expectation of success — and there seems to be relatively little reason to doubt his long-term survival.
That being said, I agree that it makes sense for Apple to have a transition plan in place. Even assuming that Jobs’ health is not a serious issue, it is true that he probably needs a bit more routine maintenance than most people. And with the added burden of running Pixar, it seems only logical that he should ease up on his involvement in Apple as he gets older. Deputing Phil Schiller to handle the MacWorld circus is a logical step in that regard.
Jan 5, 2009 - 1:18 am 3. rory:wow same day you publish this…..
http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2009/01/05sjletter.html
January 5, 2009
Letter from Apple CEO Steve Jobs
Dear Apple Community,
For the first time in a decade, I’m getting to spend the holiday season with my family, rather than intensely preparing for a Macworld keynote.
Unfortunately, my decision to have Phil deliver the Macworld keynote set off another flurry of rumors about my health, with some even publishing stories of me on my deathbed.
I’ve decided to share something very personal with the Apple community so that we can all relax and enjoy the show tomorrow.
As many of you know, I have been losing weight throughout 2008. The reason has been a mystery to me and my doctors. A few weeks ago, I decided that getting to the root cause of this and reversing it needed to become my #1 priority.
Fortunately, after further testing, my doctors think they have found the cause—a hormone imbalance that has been “robbing” me of the proteins my body needs to be healthy. Sophisticated blood tests have confirmed this diagnosis.
The remedy for this nutritional problem is relatively simple and straightforward, and I’ve already begun treatment. But, just like I didn’t lose this much weight and body mass in a week or a month, my doctors expect it will take me until late this Spring to regain it. I will continue as Apple’s CEO during my recovery.
I have given more than my all to Apple for the past 11 years now. I will be the first one to step up and tell our Board of Directors if I can no longer continue to fulfill my duties as Apple’s CEO. I hope the Apple community will support me in my recovery and know that I will always put what is best for Apple first.
So now I’ve said more than I wanted to say, and all that I am going to say, about this.
Steve
Jan 5, 2009 - 7:24 am 4. RW:Wow, that’s one helleva story and one great report on the Apple press release from Steve on the same day.
Steve really does deserve a ton of credit. Apple was fading and he came in and first thing he did was streamline the product line and get things back on track. Everyone is aware of the big wins that have followed with products such as the iPhone and iTunes has for better or worse changed the industry. (Some of us want more than DRM, we want high bit, shoot even something akin to Super Audio CD quality.)
But I will always remember Steve as someone who not only saved Apple hardware but led the company in making the right choices in its OS and beyond. Really an amazing story.
Jan 5, 2009 - 8:49 am 5. Gozer the Carpathian:Macolytes? Hehe, I kind of like that title. We do try to spread the word of Apple after all. Though at the same time there are plenty of us who are “holier than thou” over it all. :p
Anyway, I hope Steve does well because he’s worked his butt off and dumped much of his life into this company. I expect there’d be tons of similar news if Bill Gates came down with a major illness as well, though I doubt it’d have as much of a direct impact on Microsoft’s stock as Steve’s health has on Apple’s.
Jan 5, 2009 - 4:43 pm 6. vivo:I feel sorry for Steve Jobs and his sickness, just as I would feel for any other human being. But business-like, a succession plan can be implemented. It’ll be difficult to replace Jobs, but I hope there is someone out there who can carry on the Apple tradition of innovation.
Jan 6, 2009 - 4:53 am 7. Sports Blog 体育:Microsoft is doing fine without Bill Gates. However, I think Mac will not survive without Steve Jobs.
Jan 12, 2009 - 12:04 am