Israeli Election Results Point Rightward
The Kadima party is biggest vote-getter — but the Likud may be the only party able to put together a ruling coalition. (UPDATE: What Post-Election Bibi Netanyahu and Tsippi Livni Have In Common With Don Corleone and Tony Soprano — read here)
Akiva Eldar explored this dilemma in his column entitled “A Guide For the Perplexed Leftist” in Ha’aretz, the left-center voter’s newspaper of choice:
The mix that is the center-left bloc has turned Kadima, Labor and Meretz into identical triplets. It doesn’t matter which of these parties you vote for, but rather which you don’t vote for. As long as the ultra-Orthodox-right-wing bloc is stopped.
Who knows, perhaps Kadima will catch up to Likud at the last minute, and it would be a waste to use up a vote on the Labor Party. On the other hand, if Ehud Barak can eke out another two Knesset seats, perhaps he will pull the next government a bit to the left. But if we are already talking about the left, then why not go another step and vote Meretz?
On the right, the Likud and Binyamin Netanyahu face the tough challenge of preventing their voters from migrating further right, where there are a wealth of options — Shas, Ha Ichud Ha Leumi, the religious “Jewish house” party, and Yisrael Beitenu, led by Avigdor Lieberman, the man who has reshuffled the political deck of cards more than any other figure in this campaign.
As the father of one of my daughter’s friends put it as he came to pick her up from a playdate, “If you feel strongly right-wing, why compromise on Bibi? Why not go all the way?”
Just as Kadima are pressuring left-leaning voters to jump on the Livni bandwagon, Likud is strong-arming those heading for Lieberman, Shas, and other right-wing parties to vote Likud and strengthen Netanyahu.
Even with all this activity, the pre-election atmosphere feels distinctly non-electric. In many ways, it feels as if this election has sneaked up on the Israeli voters. Traditionally, Israeli election campaigns have been like the long and exhausting process just completed in the U.S. — seemingly endless, with months of media focus on the race until the population is sick of the subject and desperate to discuss just about anything else.
However, this time around, the process of choosing a new Israeli government has been dwarfed by far more dramatic events. First it was the U.S. elections. Israel was gripped watching the story of Hillary, Obama, and McCain. The American campaign was a glossier and more compelling show, just as Hollywood movies normally overshadow local fare.
Besides, it seemed like there would be time to think about local politics after November 4. After that, Israelis figured, there would be three full months to think about their own choice.
But Hamas’ intensification of Kassam strikes became impossible for Israeli leaders to tolerate and the country was gripped by Operation Cast Lead, which began in late December, just when the campaigns would have been picking up steam.
By consensus, political matters were put aside as the media and the population focused on getting the residents of the south and the soldiers through the ordeal. With stories of life and death or fear and heroism all around, political sloganeering feels emptier than ever. Energy that might have been poured into political action was diverted into food drives for southern residents and collecting warm socks and underwear for soldiers.
When the guns fell (mostly) silent, and the time finally actually came to truly focus on politics, the switch seemed anti-climactic.
But the malaise isn’t merely attributable to the contrast between politics and the war. At the bottom of what some call apathy, others disgust or desperation, is the sense that the leader Israelis choose tomorrow are not truly what is going to determine their fate.
The people who have really called the shots over the past two decades — the Palestinians — aren’t going to the polls tomorrow. If Hamas remains in control of Gaza, or if the West Bank falls under Hamas control as some are warning, there seems to be little that any Israeli leader can possibly do to prevent a state of non-ending war and conflict.
And so, a relatively low turnout — by Israeli standards — is expected at the polls, continuing a disturbing trend for a country that prides itself on being a vibrant, participator democracy. When Israel voted in its first government in 1949, 86.9 percent of eligible voters cast their ballots. By 2001, that percentage dropped to 62 percent.
Some say that it isn’t that Israelis are anti-democratic, but that they are overdosing on democracy — caught in a system where it is all too easy for dissatisfied political parties to dissolve the government and call for early elections. As Amir Mizroch pointed out in the Jerusalem Post:
Israelis will go to their fifth general elections within a decade, and it seems the more Israelis go to elections, the less they’re interested in them.
And so this campaign feels unsettled, unfinished, and unsatisfying even as the polls are poised to open.
It’s not the first time Israelis have experienced jealousy regarding the system of direct proportional elections in the U.S. and the ability of the American electorate to make a clear-cut choice for their leaders, instead of facing a perplexing and headache-inducing Rubik’s cube of options.
But it may be the election year in which Israelis have felt that envy most strongly.
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Allison Kaplan Sommer is PJM's Tel Aviv editor
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43 Comments
1. David Thomson:“Anybody But Bibi.”
Can anybody living in Israel actually say something so foolish? Binyamin Netanyahu is the only viable candidate. Can’t we take it for granted that the Palestinian extremists favor him the least? They are well aware that he has every intention of eliminating their terrorist activities. Do the majority of Israelis still want to survive? Well, we will find out tomorrow. A serious person would never consider voting for Tsipi Livni. This is especially true if they are parents claiming to love their children.
Feb 9, 2009 - 2:29 pm 2. Fantom:Fascinating article. The insight provides a window into Israeli politics, illuminating that which I was only dimly aware of.
Thanx.
Feb 9, 2009 - 2:50 pm 3. Joshua Sharf:“Direct proportional elections in the US?”
This has got to be mistaken wording. Mrs. Summer must know that it’s Israel that has proportional elections, and the US that has a first-past-the-post district system for Congress, and the Electoral College for President. And yes, those do tend to produce more clear-cut results.
District systems have been proposed for Israel, but they tend to fail for two reasons: 1) people are wary of geographically dividing a country that is so divided in so many ways already, and 2) it’s in none of the politicians’ interest to make such a change. Just as it’s not in their interest to raise the threshold for getting seats in the Knesset.
I wonder if Israel had stuck with the brief experiment of a directly-elected PM, if that would have strengthened two of three main parties at the expense of the fringe parties.
Feb 9, 2009 - 3:27 pm 4. DoubleTapper:Your’e going to Vote for Kadima?????
Tzippi Livni voted against this list of proposed laws that would help women over the past 5 years:
* Expanded Alimony Law, June 2004
* Additional Grant for women who gave birth, yet needed to be hospitalized longer, Dec 2004
* Extended Maternity Leave for hospitalized women, Jan 2005
* Tax recognition for child care expenses for working mothers, Apr 2008
* Increasing social welfare retirement benefits for single mothers, Jul 2008
So go ahead and show you mother, sister, wife (pick one) how much you hate her, and vote for Kadima!
More here
DoubleTapper
Feb 9, 2009 - 3:42 pm 5. Simon Synett:DoubleTapper@gmail.com
DoubleTapper, blogging on Guns Politics Defense from Israel
Good article, but I’m curious as to why you label Shas as a right wing party. Both Shas and United Torah Judaism are left leaning on Palestinian issues and have adopted socialism, lock, stop and barrel as their socio-economic agenda.
Feb 9, 2009 - 4:22 pm 6. glenn:Old political maxim but true nontheless, People get the government they deserve. I just hope the Israeli understand what is at stake for their country. The US just voted to take another vacation from history, the enemies of Israel have no problem killing Jews in large numbers and those enemies have the Russians and the Chinese backing them while the Europeans are either neutral toward or anti Israel. Wouldn’t be unusual for internal politics and wilful blindness to danger to do in a democracy. It happened to the French and almost to the British in 1940. They gave the rest of Central Europe to the Nazi Germans in hopes of being eaten last and we know how that worked out. My opinion is that the destruction of Israel would be followed by the collapse of the West in rapid fashion. All that hard work gone to waste would be shameful.
Feb 9, 2009 - 5:15 pm 7. Frank:No Israeli vote will bring Israel to peace because no Israeli vote will stop the Palestinians from revelling in their culture of death.
Feb 9, 2009 - 5:49 pm 8. Markus:Every sane and humane person realizes that the peaceful balkanization of the land west of the Jordan into two geographically viable, ethnically homogeneous states is the ONLY way to go. It seems as if Lieberman is the only one who can explain this to the Israeli Right, and the rest of the country. And that why I think I would probably vote for him. (Put that in your pipe and smoke it, Gary Rosen.)
Feb 9, 2009 - 6:36 pm 9. James:HEY DOUBLETAPPER: You support Bibi, but you sound like a nanny-state supporter extremis! “Single-mother this, single-mother that”….Let me tell you friend, it’s the so-called great “single mother” and the absentee father who are bringing down America and are a threat to Israel’s future. Those who choose not to raise their kids in an adult manner (think two parent house) raise children who are much more likley to be a high school drop-out, who is much more prone to drug use and addiction, and is much more likley to commit crime. The stats speak plainly to this. So please, stop glorifying the great “single mother” and let’s stop subsidizing such people! TAKE CARE OF YOUR OWN BACKYARD BEFORE YOU START TELLING ME TO RAKE CARE OF SOMEONE ELSE’S!
Feb 9, 2009 - 8:50 pm 10. Marina:“The two major parties — Kadima and Likud — are in a neck and neck tie in the last round of pre-election polls”
Strange, those polls say the difference between the two exactly 3%, like Obama – Nobama in America, but in Israel it is called “nech and neck” and in the US and “overall support”. Isn’t it sweet?
Feb 9, 2009 - 11:17 pm 11. Sderotsky Alex:There is no tie. It seems like the mandates will go 50 – center left and 70 – rightwing. Even if Kadima is going to be close to Likud (and it’s not) it’ll never be able to create a goverment (Zipi couldn’t do this evven in the current kneset with bigest party).
The real question is will we have a right-center-left or rightwing only coalition in the goverment.
I don’t want to sound rude but this whole article sounds like amateurish echoing of the Israeli leftist media.
Feb 10, 2009 - 1:20 am 12. Marc Malone:Rightwingers are winning big time but somehow this is neck and neck.
#5 Simon Synett – It’s lock, stock and barrel. It’s from buying a business. You get the lock on the door, the stock (work animals), and barrel (the goods). Just so you know.
Regarding the article, what I want to know is if any pick really matters? I mean, it sounds like neither of the extremes will win, so it’ll be a fairly centrist government. As such, they’ll be constrained to react in roughly the same way by world events.
Feb 10, 2009 - 1:57 am 13. SAF:#7 Frank:
A perfect one sentence summary of the Israeli predicament.
Feb 10, 2009 - 4:19 am 14. lucy:Israel is a democracy. If people are too dumb, or too confused by the equation survive or be killed or too lazy to bestir themselves to leave the house to vote, and the worst possible candidate wins, they’ll just have to deal with the consequences. Just like America.
Feb 10, 2009 - 6:08 am 15. Oldguy:It may be the Israelis have allowed too many New York type Jews into their great country. I fear for the nation of Israel as I do for America. I think we will go down together.
Feb 10, 2009 - 7:53 am 16. Comrade Tovya:I am an Ichud Leumi supporter myself, but I think that the Likud needs to win in order to see the nationalist camp to really win in this election. I do not support the Likud, but I’ll take them any day of Kadima.
Feb 10, 2009 - 10:58 am 17. Laura:I voted for Netanyahu when I lived in Israel because I thought he was a hard-liner. One of the first things he did was relinquish Hebron, one of the 4 ancient holy cities in Judaism to the Philistines. Surprise, surprise….they have turned it into a place for them to launch raids on the Jews living there. IT IS A DUMP. Jews cannot pray at holy gravestones without harassment so the army is mobilized everywhere to protect the now Jewish minority. What a waste of IDF manpower. I don’t trust any politician, anywhere. They will say anything to get elected.
Feb 10, 2009 - 1:20 pm 18. Barrett:As David Thomson said, “Binyamin Netanyahu is the only viable candidate.”
As long as the Palestinians elect the likes of Hamas, which is dedicated to the destruction of Israel, security will be the primary issue of the day.
Tsipi Livni and Kadima will spend time negotiating against themselves while the Palestians remain intransigent. When will the left learn? (The same problem exists in the US.)
As a US citizen who believes that the Isalmists are a threat to Western Civilization and not just Israel, I fully aware that Israel is the only true ally America has in the Middle East. I just hope (and have severe doubts) that Mr. Obama recognizes this. The Western world is more dependent upon the security of Israel than it realizes.
Feb 10, 2009 - 1:49 pm 19. steveH:#12 Marc:
Before the phrase applied to buying a business, it referred to a complete, functioning firearm.
Lock being the functional ignition portion, stock holds it all together, and the barrel makes it finally useful.
Feb 10, 2009 - 2:01 pm 20. peter jackson:I always thought lock, stock, and barrel described the parts of a musket, and essentially meant one purchased the whole gun.
Feb 10, 2009 - 2:08 pm 21. Self-hating Boomer:People focusing on the security platform to the exclusion of economics ignore an important lesson that Chinese figured out post Mao, and only Bibi understands: you can’t have a first-rate military with a second-rate economy. Like it or not, you can’t separate the security issue from the economy. Bibi wants to continue the painful but necessary transformation from a socialist economy to a market-based economy for the benefit of national security. He wants to be able to tell the US to keep its aid, and there’s no question but that a dynamic, high tech Israel can that.
People unwilling to see this are sacrificing Israel’s security for their own comfort.
Feb 10, 2009 - 2:09 pm 22. Shef Rogers:In most civilized countries Netanyahu would long ago have been tossed in prison, along with his horrible wife. It’s a sign of Israel’s sad decline that this man is considered a serious candidate.
Feb 10, 2009 - 2:16 pm 23. Yair:Alison says that “exit polls showed that the party led by Tsippi Livni clearly and decisively defeated their chief rival, Likud and Binyamin Netanyahu.” This is laughable, since Israel does not have personal elections.
Feb 10, 2009 - 2:32 pm 24. Marc Malone:Instead, Israeli governments are coalitions made out of the left or right blocs. That right wing voters decided to split their votes to more parties is thus irrelevant – unless Alison really thinks that a voter to, say, “HaIhud HaLaomi” wanted Livni to be PM!
Since the right bloc has gotten more votes, Bibi will become the next PM, regaredless of what dirty tricks Peres and Livni will try. The only way this doesn’t happen is if Liberman betrays his voters and joins Livni, which is unlikely (It would be hillarious though to see all the people calling him a “fascist” change their tune in an instant).
lock, stock, and barrel. No one buys a piece of a gun. It is a very old phrase referring to being the sole proprietor of a shop and owning it free-and-clear. It is a declarative statement, full of pride in ownership and accomplishment. A very healthy sentiment.
Feb 10, 2009 - 3:17 pm 25. Tara:Netanyahu is a nationalist hawk — always was, always will be.
Feb 10, 2009 - 3:55 pm 26. A.B. Osborne:#21 (Self hating Boomer) is correct in that the social and economic systems affect a state/country’s security. I do not recall who said it but this old saying (with modern day equivalents) comes to mind:
-In order to maintain a kingdom (state/country), the King (leadership) must maintain an army (military).
-In order to maintain an army (military), The King (leadership) must be able to collect sufficient taxes from the people.
-In order to pay the necessary taxes, the people must be wealthy.
-In order for the people to be wealthy, the laws (social system) must be just.
-If any one of these things is not achieved, the kingdom (state/country) is lost.
I cannot imagine a more unjust social system than communism or economic system than socialism. And I cannot fathom how any person can ignore the historical record that shows that communism/socialism has failed, almost always in spectacularly bloody fashion, everywhere and every time it has been tried – with the mode of failure being basically the same every single time, even if the the failure was not bloody.
Feb 10, 2009 - 4:43 pm 27. micah:I do not believe that there is an “anybody but bibi” group on facebook.
Feb 10, 2009 - 4:46 pm 28. Daniel Jackson:As of 2:32 am Jerusalem time and 75.6% of the vote counted, the elections board reported Kadima leading Likud by one seat but the right wing bloc leading the left wing bloc 65 to 55.
By anyone’s mathematics, the only victory for Livni here is Pyrrhic. Her party may have one more seat than Netanyahu, but it is doubtful that she will be the hostess at the next tea party.
Feb 10, 2009 - 4:56 pm 29. Joe:Frank #7 said what this all boils down to, too bad many will die before the powers that be accept it.
Feb 10, 2009 - 4:56 pm 30. Shef Rogers:Netanyahu sweated out the prosecutor’s decision and when he heard there wasn’t enough evidence to prosecute, he and his deluded followers cheered as if he’d won an award. But every man, woman and child in the country knew he was guilty. And this is your hero?
Feb 10, 2009 - 5:52 pm 31. Scott:As long as Israel follows the insanity of party voting as opposed to voting for human beings in a riding…I am a Zionist to my heart,but I cry for Israel
Feb 10, 2009 - 6:26 pm 32. Scott:Where is Menachem Begin when you need him?
Feb 10, 2009 - 6:28 pm 33. Marina:Wow! it’s great! BIBI ACTUALLY WILL BE THE NEXT PM ANYWAY! They’ve counted 99% of the votes and it’s Kadimah – 28 seats against Likud – 27 seats, but the majority of the Israelis want THE RIGHT so it will be BIBI who will form the coalition (of course, if Lieberman will suddenly “merge” with Kadimah, as he already did, we are screwed, but untill now he sais he prefers the “right-wing coalition”).
GO BIBI, GO, JUST GO, PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Feb 10, 2009 - 7:24 pm 34. Judy, NYC:i am sick over this. what is wrong with them. maybe the same thing that is wrong with us, here. the stupid, deluded, blind, deaf and dumb went to the polls. livni is a pandering fool and she will rue the day. she must think the united states will support israel if she is the court jew. that’s what the german jews thought, too. that worked out well. this obama character is neville chamberlain. livni can’t figure that out?
Feb 10, 2009 - 8:06 pm 35. Almost Ali:Livni is Little Red Riding Hood. With an Islamic ending.
Praise Allah!
Feb 10, 2009 - 8:43 pm 36. Marina:LAURA:
“I voted for Netanyahu when I lived in Israel because I thought he was a hard-liner. One of the first things he did was relinquish Hebron, one of the 4 ancient holy cities in Judaism to the Philistines. Surprise, surprise….”
Oh, yeah, that’s not the only point where he can be a-holish. The problem is, he is the only one who can stand up to Obama, when Obama (and Samanta Powers) will come and say: “Dialogue with palestinians or else!” or “Make peace with palestinians at any price or else!” or “DO WHAT I SAY OR ELSE!”. And we, INFORMED PEOPLE, know very well how Obama and his environement hate Israel: “Nobody had suffered as much as the Palestinian people” (Obama); “Israel – oh, I said THAT DIRTY WORD AGAIN” (Jeremiah Wright, Obama’s 20 years long pastor); Rashid Halidi; let’s kiss Ahmadinejad’s butt etc.
Bibi is the only one who can flip him off. That’s why Obama said: my politics in the middle east will be nothing like that of BENJAMIN NETANIAHU. WTH? He wasn’t even a president yet. Bibi wasn’t a PM yet. But Obama already says Bibi is his “kinda” enemy? wtf again? Because Bibi can go and flip the bird and say: “That’s good for MY country, I don’t care how your international image will suffer”.
Will he do it? The f… knows. Nobody knows. He’s not the messiah. But he’s the only one with the GUTS TO DO IT, that’s for sure. He has the potential. Will he use it? OMG, let’s pray he will.
I was a stupid little girl when he was the PM for the first time. Everything I could remember, he was handsome and the anti-Semites in the country I lived in that time hated him like hell. Ok, the anti-Semitic scum will hate any Israli leader anyway. And, as old as he is, he can still win the beauty contest agains Tzipi… But anyway, you’re right: we cannot trust him totally. Neither we can trust any other polititian in Israel nowadays. Ok, BUT:
HE DOESN’T PROMISE TO GIVE UP GOLAN FOR NOTHING AND DIVIDE JERUSALEM FOR NOTHING AND AND AND AND AND (all the stuff Tzipi and Obama want). Can I trust him here? I don’t know. Can I trust Livni will do what she promises, especially when Obama wants the same? You betcha! SO: BIBI? TZIPI? AVI? or SOCI?
I hope it’s obvious.
Feb 10, 2009 - 8:50 pm 37. John Galt:The election isn’t over.
Livni has not won.
The votes from the soilders and diplomats still need to be counted and most likely they will move the election into a virtual tie or give the win to Bibi
Soldiers’ Vote May Swing the Elections to a Tie
by Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu
(IsraelNN.com) Voters gave Kadima 28 mandates in the next Knesset, one more than Likud, with almost all of Tuesday’s ballots counted but not including votes of diplomats and soldiers, whose votes will be counted on Wednesday and Thursday. Their ballots are equal to five mandate
Following is the current number of estimated MKs for each party following the counting of 99% of the available votes:
Kadima 28
Likud 27
Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel Our Home) 14
Labor 13
Shas 11
United Torah Judaism (UTJ) 5
Ichud Leumi (National Union) 4
Jewish Home 3
Meretz 3
Arab parties 12
The votes of the armed forces usually tilt to the nationalist and religious parties, and are likely to create at least a tie and may even put Likud in the lead. The votes of diplomats overseas and soldiers changed the results in the last election by taking one Knesset seat away from Kadima. The number of Arab MKs also will likely be reduced after the soldiers’ ballots are counted.
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/129888
I think this was a sexist article.
Feb 10, 2009 - 9:39 pm 38. idov:No one won this election. The only malaise is in Tel Aviv. The rest of the country swung sharply to the right.
Netanyahu has a chance to form a right bloc government with 66 seats without need of Kadimah or Labor. But that includes the two ultra-Orthodox parties and Shas at least will come in and try to extort a lot of money. Sharon in 2004 told them to get lost and sent them to opposition. Livni in the fall told them to get lost and that triggered the election. Netanyahu may tell them to get lost too unless they lower their demands.
In the 80s Shamir and Peres ended in a virtual dead heat like this time and they agreed to rotate the post of PM, each got two years. This may the eventual outcome too. Kadimah is basically Likud B. They always had a moderate wing and except for former justice minister Meridor they are all over there. The two parties can work together smoothly.
The big development is the collapse of the left, Labor down to 13 seats and Merez, the big appeasers, down to 3, which is basically some kibbutz members and their cows. In the past the left caused all the trouble in the country bringing in Arafat and his mafia and arming them which got us the wave of terror in 2000-2002. The corruption of Arafat, they stole all the international aid, led to the rise of Hamas, who promised clean government.
The international factor in the background was the desire of the people to stand strong against what are perceived as the two greatest threats to the country, Ahmaninejad and Obama, not necessarily in that order.
Feb 10, 2009 - 9:46 pm 39. fred:As in America, so in Israel. The rot, mental and moral, is in the cities. Netanyahu is so far above Livni IN EVERY RESPECT that to vote against him defies rationality. There is only one politician in Israel who will smash Israel’s enemies, and we know who it is. Livni is a bit like our Obama (and I think Obama’s way worse).
I think we are indeed living in the time of the suicide of Western Civilization. And our enemies are circling for the kill.
Feb 11, 2009 - 7:23 am 40. David W. Lincoln:Frankly, it isn’t a stretch to say that there are not enough Arabs who take their cues from Nonie Darwish, Wafa Sultan, and Bat Yeor to properly govern themselves.
It isn’t enough to keep a hawk’s eye on the schools, mosques and media outlets.
A temporary preparatory regime has to be in place so that there are enough Arabs to properly
Feb 11, 2009 - 9:55 am 41. Laura:govern themselves, and frankly if the Israeli gov’t were to do this, it would receive credibility from those who deserve to command respect.
Let’s see if either Livni or Netanyahu will stop the release of terrorists in Israeli jails as part of prisoner swaps, dismantled the evil unions that strong-arm the country, lean on Obama for the release of Jonathan Pollard, militarily liberate Gilad Shalit and other innocent hostages, permanently remove the insane notion of land for peace from the bargaining table and demand that the U.S. embassy be moved to Jerusalem. I won’t hold my breath for any of it.
Feb 11, 2009 - 12:08 pm 42. HonsetJon:12. Marc Malone:
20. peter jackson: Is correct.
With all due respect, sir, the phrase “lock, stock, and barrel” is a reference to guns. Lock being the trigger mechanism including the hammer/frizzen/flint; stock referring to the wooden parts of the gun (forearm, and butt); and barrel being the barrel.
The phrase can be used as you say as well.
From Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lock_stock_and_barrel
“History
The term was first recorded in the letters of Sir Walter Scott in 1817, in the line “Like the High-landman’s gun, she wants stock, lock, and barrel, to put her into repair”.[citation needed] It is, however, thought that this term evolved into a popular saying some years before in England.”
As a muzzleloading hillbilly, I know!
No disrespect meant.
Feb 11, 2009 - 12:48 pm 43. SAF:Israelis appear to have lost the will to defend themselves. Hamas and Hezbollah will remind them soon enough why they should.
Feb 11, 2009 - 2:23 pm