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Israeli Election Results Point Rightward
The Kadima party is biggest vote-getter — but the Likud may be the only party able to put together a ruling coalition. (UPDATE: What Post-Election Bibi Netanyahu and Tsippi Livni Have In Common With Don Corleone and Tony Soprano — read here)
It was a night for celebrating at the headquarters of Israel’s Kadima party, after exit polls showed that their team, led by Tsippi Livni defeated their chief rival, Likud and Binyamin Netanyahu.
Consistently, the polls show her party the leader of the two largest parties. The three networks’ exit polls, published at 10 PM Israel time when the polls closed, show a gap of at least two Knesset seats. It was undeniably a dramatic personal victory, with Livni leading her party to a comeback in the polls far beyond expectations — just weeks ago, Kadima trailed Likud by a far wider margin. (UPDATE: Israelis woke Wednesday morning to the news that Livni’s actual lead was narrower than the polls had indicated — a mere one seat ahead of Likud)
But the ecstatic rejoicing at her party headquarters could be short-lived. When it comes to building a coalition, the task won’t be simple for whichever leader President Shimon Peres charges with the task.
Presuming that person is Livni, she will have to face the fact that while she may have out-polled the Likud, simple arithmetic shows that the right-wing bloc is significantly larger than the left-wing bloc — a fact which will make her job of coalition-forming extremely challenging.
The big question is if a unity government is possibly in the cards. Presuming Livni gets first crack at forming the government, she has the option of inviting the Likud to join her. They can then either accept — or hold out, hoping that her attempt fails and they will get a turn at coalition-building.
There was a clear sign that Netanyahu and the Likud have no plans to make life easy for Livni. Immediately after the results came in, Netanyahu declared that he, not the woman who out-polled him, would be the next prime minister.
He’s done it before, as Bradley Burston of Ha’aretz was quick to point out:
The predicted results, if they stand up in the actual vote count and in the later tallies of soldiers’ votes, would be a stunning mirror-echo of Netanyahu’s triumphant 1996 run for the premiership, in which he overcame a 20 percentage point deficit in opinion polls to edge incumbent Shimon Peres.
It will fall to Peres, as president, to make the decision on whether to ask Livni or Netanyahu to try to form the government. Netanyahu’s task would likely be numerically easier, as he could rely on right-leaning parties for 63-64 Knesset votes, clearing the 61 needed for approval.
But initial indications showed that Livni could field a broad coalition anchored by Kadima’s 29-30 seats, the Likud’s 27, and the 13 expected to be held by the center-left Labor.
Indeed, most of the walking wounded following the exit polls are on the left, notably the once-indomitable Labor Party, whose support sank to a pitiful 13 seats, leading pundits to speculate immediately that Ehud Barak’s days as party leader may once again be numbered.
Posted February 9: Malaise in Israel on Eve of Election
Never have so many Israeli voters been so undecided so close to the day of an election.
In a country that is famous for being traditionally divided between left and right, where strong opinions are the order of the day, few Israelis feel that their vote tomorrow might truly help put their country on a path towards peace and progress. Many may be voting with full determination and earnestness, but few are voting with certainty.
The day before the election, it seems that everywhere one goes, everyone is quizzing each other with the same question: “So, do you know who you are voting for?”
When the answer “I haven’t decided yet” is given, what follows is not a lobbying effort to convince one’s conversation partner, but usually commiseration: “Neither have I.”
What generally ensues is a dialogue as to which parties are under consideration, and the pros and cons of the decision.
Such conversations are remarkably similar on both the right and the left. The two major parties — Kadima and Likud — are in a neck and neck tie in the last round of pre-election polls. Under the Israeli system, following the election the country’s president charges the party leader with the best chance of forming a coalition with the job of forming a government. The two candidates in this case are obviously Likud’s Binyamin Netanyahu or Kadima’s Tsipi Livni.
Israelis get one vote, and there are a myriad of parties to choose from, each emphasizing everything from a particular interest — everything from religion to environmentalism. Both right and left must decide whether to vote with their head or their heart. Many whose true political sentiments fall significantly further left than Kadima — whose list is populated with not a few right-wing members — or who are attracted to the Green Party are being sorely tempted (and openly pressured) to give their vote to Kadima in order to block Netanyahu’s ascension to power. As a newly popular Facebook group puts it, “Anybody But Bibi.”
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Allison Kaplan Sommer is PJM's Tel Aviv editor
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43 Comments
1. David Thomson:“Anybody But Bibi.”
Can anybody living in Israel actually say something so foolish? Binyamin Netanyahu is the only viable candidate. Can’t we take it for granted that the Palestinian extremists favor him the least? They are well aware that he has every intention of eliminating their terrorist activities. Do the majority of Israelis still want to survive? Well, we will find out tomorrow. A serious person would never consider voting for Tsipi Livni. This is especially true if they are parents claiming to love their children.
Feb 9, 2009 - 2:29 pm 2. Fantom:Fascinating article. The insight provides a window into Israeli politics, illuminating that which I was only dimly aware of.
Thanx.
Feb 9, 2009 - 2:50 pm 3. Joshua Sharf:“Direct proportional elections in the US?”
This has got to be mistaken wording. Mrs. Summer must know that it’s Israel that has proportional elections, and the US that has a first-past-the-post district system for Congress, and the Electoral College for President. And yes, those do tend to produce more clear-cut results.
District systems have been proposed for Israel, but they tend to fail for two reasons: 1) people are wary of geographically dividing a country that is so divided in so many ways already, and 2) it’s in none of the politicians’ interest to make such a change. Just as it’s not in their interest to raise the threshold for getting seats in the Knesset.
I wonder if Israel had stuck with the brief experiment of a directly-elected PM, if that would have strengthened two of three main parties at the expense of the fringe parties.
Feb 9, 2009 - 3:27 pm 4. DoubleTapper:Your’e going to Vote for Kadima?????
Tzippi Livni voted against this list of proposed laws that would help women over the past 5 years:
* Expanded Alimony Law, June 2004
* Additional Grant for women who gave birth, yet needed to be hospitalized longer, Dec 2004
* Extended Maternity Leave for hospitalized women, Jan 2005
* Tax recognition for child care expenses for working mothers, Apr 2008
* Increasing social welfare retirement benefits for single mothers, Jul 2008
So go ahead and show you mother, sister, wife (pick one) how much you hate her, and vote for Kadima!
More here
DoubleTapper
Feb 9, 2009 - 3:42 pm 5. Simon Synett:DoubleTapper@gmail.com
DoubleTapper, blogging on Guns Politics Defense from Israel
Good article, but I’m curious as to why you label Shas as a right wing party. Both Shas and United Torah Judaism are left leaning on Palestinian issues and have adopted socialism, lock, stop and barrel as their socio-economic agenda.
Feb 9, 2009 - 4:22 pm 6. glenn:Old political maxim but true nontheless, People get the government they deserve. I just hope the Israeli understand what is at stake for their country. The US just voted to take another vacation from history, the enemies of Israel have no problem killing Jews in large numbers and those enemies have the Russians and the Chinese backing them while the Europeans are either neutral toward or anti Israel. Wouldn’t be unusual for internal politics and wilful blindness to danger to do in a democracy. It happened to the French and almost to the British in 1940. They gave the rest of Central Europe to the Nazi Germans in hopes of being eaten last and we know how that worked out. My opinion is that the destruction of Israel would be followed by the collapse of the West in rapid fashion. All that hard work gone to waste would be shameful.
Feb 9, 2009 - 5:15 pm 7. Frank:No Israeli vote will bring Israel to peace because no Israeli vote will stop the Palestinians from revelling in their culture of death.
Feb 9, 2009 - 5:49 pm 8. Markus:Every sane and humane person realizes that the peaceful balkanization of the land west of the Jordan into two geographically viable, ethnically homogeneous states is the ONLY way to go. It seems as if Lieberman is the only one who can explain this to the Israeli Right, and the rest of the country. And that why I think I would probably vote for him. (Put that in your pipe and smoke it, Gary Rosen.)
Feb 9, 2009 - 6:36 pm 9. James:HEY DOUBLETAPPER: You support Bibi, but you sound like a nanny-state supporter extremis! “Single-mother this, single-mother that”….Let me tell you friend, it’s the so-called great “single mother” and the absentee father who are bringing down America and are a threat to Israel’s future. Those who choose not to raise their kids in an adult manner (think two parent house) raise children who are much more likley to be a high school drop-out, who is much more prone to drug use and addiction, and is much more likley to commit crime. The stats speak plainly to this. So please, stop glorifying the great “single mother” and let’s stop subsidizing such people! TAKE CARE OF YOUR OWN BACKYARD BEFORE YOU START TELLING ME TO RAKE CARE OF SOMEONE ELSE’S!
Feb 9, 2009 - 8:50 pm 10. Marina:“The two major parties — Kadima and Likud — are in a neck and neck tie in the last round of pre-election polls”
Strange, those polls say the difference between the two exactly 3%, like Obama – Nobama in America, but in Israel it is called “nech and neck” and in the US and “overall support”. Isn’t it sweet?
Feb 9, 2009 - 11:17 pm 11. Sderotsky Alex:There is no tie. It seems like the mandates will go 50 – center left and 70 – rightwing. Even if Kadima is going to be close to Likud (and it’s not) it’ll never be able to create a goverment (Zipi couldn’t do this evven in the current kneset with bigest party).
The real question is will we have a right-center-left or rightwing only coalition in the goverment.
I don’t want to sound rude but this whole article sounds like amateurish echoing of the Israeli leftist media.
Feb 10, 2009 - 1:20 am 12. Marc Malone:Rightwingers are winning big time but somehow this is neck and neck.
#5 Simon Synett – It’s lock, stock and barrel. It’s from buying a business. You get the lock on the door, the stock (work animals), and barrel (the goods). Just so you know.
Regarding the article, what I want to know is if any pick really matters? I mean, it sounds like neither of the extremes will win, so it’ll be a fairly centrist government. As such, they’ll be constrained to react in roughly the same way by world events.
Feb 10, 2009 - 1:57 am 13. SAF:#7 Frank:
A perfect one sentence summary of the Israeli predicament.
Feb 10, 2009 - 4:19 am 14. lucy:Israel is a democracy. If people are too dumb, or too confused by the equation survive or be killed or too lazy to bestir themselves to leave the house to vote, and the worst possible candidate wins, they’ll just have to deal with the consequences. Just like America.
Feb 10, 2009 - 6:08 am 15. Oldguy:It may be the Israelis have allowed too many New York type Jews into their great country. I fear for the nation of Israel as I do for America. I think we will go down together.
Feb 10, 2009 - 7:53 am 16. Comrade Tovya:I am an Ichud Leumi supporter myself, but I think that the Likud needs to win in order to see the nationalist camp to really win in this election. I do not support the Likud, but I’ll take them any day of Kadima.
Feb 10, 2009 - 10:58 am 17. Laura:I voted for Netanyahu when I lived in Israel because I thought he was a hard-liner. One of the first things he did was relinquish Hebron, one of the 4 ancient holy cities in Judaism to the Philistines. Surprise, surprise….they have turned it into a place for them to launch raids on the Jews living there. IT IS A DUMP. Jews cannot pray at holy gravestones without harassment so the army is mobilized everywhere to protect the now Jewish minority. What a waste of IDF manpower. I don’t trust any politician, anywhere. They will say anything to get elected.
Feb 10, 2009 - 1:20 pm 18. Barrett:As David Thomson said, “Binyamin Netanyahu is the only viable candidate.”
As long as the Palestinians elect the likes of Hamas, which is dedicated to the destruction of Israel, security will be the primary issue of the day.
Tsipi Livni and Kadima will spend time negotiating against themselves while the Palestians remain intransigent. When will the left learn? (The same problem exists in the US.)
As a US citizen who believes that the Isalmists are a threat to Western Civilization and not just Israel, I fully aware that Israel is the only true ally America has in the Middle East. I just hope (and have severe doubts) that Mr. Obama recognizes this. The Western world is more dependent upon the security of Israel than it realizes.
Feb 10, 2009 - 1:49 pm 19. steveH:#12 Marc:
Before the phrase applied to buying a business, it referred to a complete, functioning firearm.
Lock being the functional ignition portion, stock holds it all together, and the barrel makes it finally useful.
Feb 10, 2009 - 2:01 pm 20. peter jackson:I always thought lock, stock, and barrel described the parts of a musket, and essentially meant one purchased the whole gun.
Feb 10, 2009 - 2:08 pm 21. Self-hating Boomer:People focusing on the security platform to the exclusion of economics ignore an important lesson that Chinese figured out post Mao, and only Bibi understands: you can’t have a first-rate military with a second-rate economy. Like it or not, you can’t separate the security issue from the economy. Bibi wants to continue the painful but necessary transformation from a socialist economy to a market-based economy for the benefit of national security. He wants to be able to tell the US to keep its aid, and there’s no question but that a dynamic, high tech Israel can that.
People unwilling to see this are sacrificing Israel’s security for their own comfort.
Feb 10, 2009 - 2:09 pm 22. Shef Rogers:In most civilized countries Netanyahu would long ago have been tossed in prison, along with his horrible wife. It’s a sign of Israel’s sad decline that this man is considered a serious candidate.
Feb 10, 2009 - 2:16 pm 23. Yair:Alison says that “exit polls showed that the party led by Tsippi Livni clearly and decisively defeated their chief rival, Likud and Binyamin Netanyahu.” This is laughable, since Israel does not have personal elections.
Feb 10, 2009 - 2:32 pm 24. Marc Malone:Instead, Israeli governments are coalitions made out of the left or right blocs. That right wing voters decided to split their votes to more parties is thus irrelevant – unless Alison really thinks that a voter to, say, “HaIhud HaLaomi” wanted Livni to be PM!
Since the right bloc has gotten more votes, Bibi will become the next PM, regaredless of what dirty tricks Peres and Livni will try. The only way this doesn’t happen is if Liberman betrays his voters and joins Livni, which is unlikely (It would be hillarious though to see all the people calling him a “fascist” change their tune in an instant).
lock, stock, and barrel. No one buys a piece of a gun. It is a very old phrase referring to being the sole proprietor of a shop and owning it free-and-clear. It is a declarative statement, full of pride in ownership and accomplishment. A very healthy sentiment.
Feb 10, 2009 - 3:17 pm 25. Tara:Netanyahu is a nationalist hawk — always was, always will be.
Feb 10, 2009 - 3:55 pm 26. A.B. Osborne:#21 (Self hating Boomer) is correct in that the social and economic systems affect a state/country’s security. I do not recall who said it but this old saying (with modern day equivalents) comes to mind:
-In order to maintain a kingdom (state/country), the King (leadership) must maintain an army (military).
-In order to maintain an army (military), The King (leadership) must be able to collect sufficient taxes from the people.
-In order to pay the necessary taxes, the people must be wealthy.
-In order for the people to be wealthy, the laws (social system) must be just.
-If any one of these things is not achieved, the kingdom (state/country) is lost.
I cannot imagine a more unjust social system than communism or economic system than socialism. And I cannot fathom how any person can ignore the historical record that shows that communism/socialism has failed, almost always in spectacularly bloody fashion, everywhere and every time it has been tried – with the mode of failure being basically the same every single time, even if the the failure was not bloody.
Feb 10, 2009 - 4:43 pm 27. micah:I do not believe that there is an “anybody but bibi” group on facebook.
Feb 10, 2009 - 4:46 pm 28. Daniel Jackson:As of 2:32 am Jerusalem time and 75.6% of the vote counted, the elections board reported Kadima leading Likud by one seat but the right wing bloc leading the left wing bloc 65 to 55.
By anyone’s mathematics, the only victory for Livni here is Pyrrhic. Her party may have one more seat than Netanyahu, but it is doubtful that she will be the hostess at the next tea party.
Feb 10, 2009 - 4:56 pm 29. Joe:Frank #7 said what this all boils down to, too bad many will die before the powers that be accept it.
Feb 10, 2009 - 4:56 pm 30. Shef Rogers:Netanyahu sweated out the prosecutor’s decision and when he heard there wasn’t enough evidence to prosecute, he and his deluded followers cheered as if he’d won an award. But every man, woman and child in the country knew he was guilty. And this is your hero?
Feb 10, 2009 - 5:52 pm 31. Scott:As long as Israel follows the insanity of party voting as opposed to voting for human beings in a riding…I am a Zionist to my heart,but I cry for Israel
Feb 10, 2009 - 6:26 pm 32. Scott:Where is Menachem Begin when you need him?
Feb 10, 2009 - 6:28 pm 33. Marina:Wow! it’s great! BIBI ACTUALLY WILL BE THE NEXT PM ANYWAY! They’ve counted 99% of the votes and it’s Kadimah – 28 seats against Likud – 27 seats, but the majority of the Israelis want THE RIGHT so it will be BIBI who will form the coalition (of course, if Lieberman will suddenly “merge” with Kadimah, as he already did, we are screwed, but untill now he sais he prefers the “right-wing coalition”).
GO BIBI, GO, JUST GO, PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Feb 10, 2009 - 7:24 pm 34. Judy, NYC:i am sick over this. what is wrong with them. maybe the same thing that is wrong with us, here. the stupid, deluded, blind, deaf and dumb went to the polls. livni is a pandering fool and she will rue the day. she must think the united states will support israel if she is the court jew. that’s what the german jews thought, too. that worked out well. this obama character is neville chamberlain. livni can’t figure that out?
Feb 10, 2009 - 8:06 pm 35. Almost Ali:Livni is Little Red Riding Hood. With an Islamic ending.
Praise Allah!
Feb 10, 2009 - 8:43 pm 36. Marina:LAURA:
“I voted for Netanyahu when I lived in Israel because I thought he was a hard-liner. One of the first things he did was relinquish Hebron, one of the 4 ancient holy cities in Judaism to the Philistines. Surprise, surprise….”
Oh, yeah, that’s not the only point where he can be a-holish. The problem is, he is the only one who can stand up to Obama, when Obama (and Samanta Powers) will come and say: “Dialogue with palestinians or else!” or “Make peace with palestinians at any price or else!” or “DO WHAT I SAY OR ELSE!”. And we, INFORMED PEOPLE, know very well how Obama and his environement hate Israel: “Nobody had suffered as much as the Palestinian people” (Obama); “Israel – oh, I said THAT DIRTY WORD AGAIN” (Jeremiah Wright, Obama’s 20 years long pastor); Rashid Halidi; let’s kiss Ahmadinejad’s butt etc.
Bibi is the only one who can flip him off. That’s why Obama said: my politics in the middle east will be nothing like that of BENJAMIN NETANIAHU. WTH? He wasn’t even a president yet. Bibi wasn’t a PM yet. But Obama already says Bibi is his “kinda” enemy? wtf again? Because Bibi can go and flip the bird and say: “That’s good for MY country, I don’t care how your international image will suffer”.
Will he do it? The f… knows. Nobody knows. He’s not the messiah. But he’s the only one with the GUTS TO DO IT, that’s for sure. He has the potential. Will he use it? OMG, let’s pray he will.
I was a stupid little girl when he was the PM for the first time. Everything I could remember, he was handsome and the anti-Semites in the country I lived in that time hated him like hell. Ok, the anti-Semitic scum will hate any Israli leader anyway. And, as old as he is, he can still win the beauty contest agains Tzipi… But anyway, you’re right: we cannot trust him totally. Neither we can trust any other polititian in Israel nowadays. Ok, BUT:
HE DOESN’T PROMISE TO GIVE UP GOLAN FOR NOTHING AND DIVIDE JERUSALEM FOR NOTHING AND AND AND AND AND (all the stuff Tzipi and Obama want). Can I trust him here? I don’t know. Can I trust Livni will do what she promises, especially when Obama wants the same? You betcha! SO: BIBI? TZIPI? AVI? or SOCI?
I hope it’s obvious.
Feb 10, 2009 - 8:50 pm 37. John Galt:The election isn’t over.
Livni has not won.
The votes from the soilders and diplomats still need to be counted and most likely they will move the election into a virtual tie or give the win to Bibi
Soldiers’ Vote May Swing the Elections to a Tie
by Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu
(IsraelNN.com) Voters gave Kadima 28 mandates in the next Knesset, one more than Likud, with almost all of Tuesday’s ballots counted but not including votes of diplomats and soldiers, whose votes will be counted on Wednesday and Thursday. Their ballots are equal to five mandate
Following is the current number of estimated MKs for each party following the counting of 99% of the available votes:
Kadima 28
Likud 27
Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel Our Home) 14
Labor 13
Shas 11
United Torah Judaism (UTJ) 5
Ichud Leumi (National Union) 4
Jewish Home 3
Meretz 3
Arab parties 12
The votes of the armed forces usually tilt to the nationalist and religious parties, and are likely to create at least a tie and may even put Likud in the lead. The votes of diplomats overseas and soldiers changed the results in the last election by taking one Knesset seat away from Kadima. The number of Arab MKs also will likely be reduced after the soldiers’ ballots are counted.
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/129888
I think this was a sexist article.
Feb 10, 2009 - 9:39 pm 38. idov:No one won this election. The only malaise is in Tel Aviv. The rest of the country swung sharply to the right.
Netanyahu has a chance to form a right bloc government with 66 seats without need of Kadimah or Labor. But that includes the two ultra-Orthodox parties and Shas at least will come in and try to extort a lot of money. Sharon in 2004 told them to get lost and sent them to opposition. Livni in the fall told them to get lost and that triggered the election. Netanyahu may tell them to get lost too unless they lower their demands.
In the 80s Shamir and Peres ended in a virtual dead heat like this time and they agreed to rotate the post of PM, each got two years. This may the eventual outcome too. Kadimah is basically Likud B. They always had a moderate wing and except for former justice minister Meridor they are all over there. The two parties can work together smoothly.
The big development is the collapse of the left, Labor down to 13 seats and Merez, the big appeasers, down to 3, which is basically some kibbutz members and their cows. In the past the left caused all the trouble in the country bringing in Arafat and his mafia and arming them which got us the wave of terror in 2000-2002. The corruption of Arafat, they stole all the international aid, led to the rise of Hamas, who promised clean government.
The international factor in the background was the desire of the people to stand strong against what are perceived as the two greatest threats to the country, Ahmaninejad and Obama, not necessarily in that order.
Feb 10, 2009 - 9:46 pm 39. fred:As in America, so in Israel. The rot, mental and moral, is in the cities. Netanyahu is so far above Livni IN EVERY RESPECT that to vote against him defies rationality. There is only one politician in Israel who will smash Israel’s enemies, and we know who it is. Livni is a bit like our Obama (and I think Obama’s way worse).
I think we are indeed living in the time of the suicide of Western Civilization. And our enemies are circling for the kill.
Feb 11, 2009 - 7:23 am 40. David W. Lincoln:Frankly, it isn’t a stretch to say that there are not enough Arabs who take their cues from Nonie Darwish, Wafa Sultan, and Bat Yeor to properly govern themselves.
It isn’t enough to keep a hawk’s eye on the schools, mosques and media outlets.
A temporary preparatory regime has to be in place so that there are enough Arabs to properly
Feb 11, 2009 - 9:55 am 41. Laura:govern themselves, and frankly if the Israeli gov’t were to do this, it would receive credibility from those who deserve to command respect.
Let’s see if either Livni or Netanyahu will stop the release of terrorists in Israeli jails as part of prisoner swaps, dismantled the evil unions that strong-arm the country, lean on Obama for the release of Jonathan Pollard, militarily liberate Gilad Shalit and other innocent hostages, permanently remove the insane notion of land for peace from the bargaining table and demand that the U.S. embassy be moved to Jerusalem. I won’t hold my breath for any of it.
Feb 11, 2009 - 12:08 pm 42. HonsetJon:12. Marc Malone:
20. peter jackson: Is correct.
With all due respect, sir, the phrase “lock, stock, and barrel” is a reference to guns. Lock being the trigger mechanism including the hammer/frizzen/flint; stock referring to the wooden parts of the gun (forearm, and butt); and barrel being the barrel.
The phrase can be used as you say as well.
From Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lock_stock_and_barrel
“History
The term was first recorded in the letters of Sir Walter Scott in 1817, in the line “Like the High-landman’s gun, she wants stock, lock, and barrel, to put her into repair”.[citation needed] It is, however, thought that this term evolved into a popular saying some years before in England.”
As a muzzleloading hillbilly, I know!
No disrespect meant.
Feb 11, 2009 - 12:48 pm 43. SAF:Israelis appear to have lost the will to defend themselves. Hamas and Hezbollah will remind them soon enough why they should.
Feb 11, 2009 - 2:23 pm