McCain Must Get a Grip on the Economy
Security is important, but again in 2008 it's the economy, stupid. John McCain needs to recognize this if he wants to win.
Aside from forcing Obama to explain his math, McCain has several tactics at his disposal which might level help the playing field and prevent the voters from taking their economic worries, justified or not, out on him.
First, he has moved energy policy to the front burner. Much of voters’ economic woes have centered on gas prices. McCain has done an effective job in not just coming up with a multi-faceted energy program, but painting Obama as Dr. No and indifferent to the immediate needs of voters. If energy prices stay high, Obama sticks to the highly unpopular position of opposing domestic gas drilling voters may perceive that McCain is the more pragmatic of the two in addressing a key pocketbook issue, thereby eroding some of Obama’s domestic policy advantage.
But even that may not be enough when broader concerns about housing and unemployment grip most Americans. As Sabato explains, “Energy policy is important but by no means does it rise to the level of the economy for voters.”
Second, McCain may try to focus voters on what Obama is actually proposing: lots of income distribution and not much on the growth side. In this regard, McCain may have a receptive audience. Polling shows that voters by a wide margin favor efforts to boost the economy rather than redistribute the wealth. The latter is the overwhelming focus of Obama’s pitch, and McCain may make headway by reminding voters that bolstering economic growth is at the heart of his plans.
And McCain has begun to pick up on Obama’s record of raising taxes 94 times in his brief tenure in the Senate and attack his plans for multiple new tax hikes. If the economy is bad now, McCain’s team argues, than across the board tax hikes, massive re-regulation and Obama’s protectionist trade stance (which he is not attempting to tone down) would spell doom for the economy. It is an open question, however, whether Obama will stick to his tax plans (he has already hinted he would be open to lowering corporate tax rates) and continue to provide such a juicy target for McCain.
Third, McCain has still to wrap up his economic plan into a coherent and appealing package. To compete with “change,” McCain will need to explain how his grab-bag of ideas (e.g. choice on health care, free trade, tax reduction, and energy independence) fit together. And while McCain loves to talk about his record as fiscal hawk and enemy of earmarks, it is far from clear that “less government” is a winning message these days.
Conservative journalist Yuval Levin has suggested a reform-minded agenda and theme, but McCain has yet to embrace it or fully escape the charge that his administration will be the third Bush term. Others have offered revised tax plans which do more than simply pledge to adhere to the Bush tax cuts. If McCain is to counter Obama’s “something for nothing” promises, he will likely have to take some of this advice and construct a responsible and easily understandable package that emphasizes his market, pro-growth approach.
And finally, the economy may be a big, but not the sole, factor in the election’s outcome. Pollster and analyst Charlie Cook says that he has “seen a one-dimensional presidential election yet. . . Elections have many moving parts.” Put differently, if McCain can convince voters that Obama lacks the knowledge, resoluteness and even character to be president, they may decide that they cannot manage to trust Obama with their economic futures. As Cook says, “this election is about one person, Obama.”
So recovering from the Gramm gaffe was the easy part. Crafting a compelling economic agenda and convincing voters not to trust Obama with their economic security are the tougher. But the McCain camp — with increased focus on the economy and heightened attacks on Obama — seems to have recognized that helping turn around a losing war and sporting a war hero’s resume aren’t likely to win him the election.
To do that, he will need to convince voters that he, not his opponent, is the one to calm their economic fears.
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Jennifer Rubin is PJM's Washington, DC, editor. She also blogs at Commentary’s Contentions.
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14 Comments
1. Menorah:Romney Romney Romney Romney Romney Romney Romney Romney Romney Romney Romney Romney Romney Romney Romney Romney
Jul 21, 2008 - 1:33 am 2. njcommuter:When McCain takes the initiative on issues, he has a great advantage on Obama: He has common sense and can say it. All Obama can do is recite Broad Themes over and over again. The ideal candidate can do both, but in a long campaign during troubled times, common sense will probably win, especially when the positions are as extreme as they are now.
Jul 21, 2008 - 3:22 am 3. CaptDMO:I’m still having trouble with a discord between fury over what Mr. Gramm said, and the adoration bestowed upon “Ask NOT what your country can do for YOU, ask what you can do for your country.”
I guess it’s a progressive thing.
Jul 21, 2008 - 6:18 am 4. Chris:Great points. One question regarding the following:
“…Cook says that he has “seen a one-dimensional presidential election yet. . . Elections have many moving parts.”
The quote is somewhat ambiguous. Was it “Not seen…”? Just curious.
As for Gramm, what can you say? Tone deaf? Tin-ear? The guy is out of touch in his ivory IB tower. Good riddance. For Gramm to opine on the plight of average Americans paying $4.50 for gas and 30% more for staples is ridiculous, seeing as how he blames the citizen and not the government which is in large part responsible.
Jul 21, 2008 - 6:51 am 5. cedarford:CaptDMO:
I’m still having trouble with a discord between fury over what Mr. Gramm said, and the adoration bestowed upon “Ask NOT what your country can do for YOU, ask what you can do for your country.”
I guess it’s a progressive thing.
Except that JFK asked people to contribute and sacrifice for The Country
While Gramm called middle and lower class working people upset at 30 years of stagnant wages, half of their jobs menaced in globalisation to fuel the wealth of a small number of Ruling Elites who never had it so good, exploding debt and trade deficits as supply side voodoo has finally been seen to fail, 4.60 a gallon gas, 20-30% inflation in basic food items – as whiners.
People perturbed about failure of Government to work competently in the Presidency or Congress, about unchecked illegal immigration, transportation infrastructure rotting away, growing numbers lacking adequate health care and who have pensions at risk from the old industrial firms now destroyed as competitors by cheap 3rd World labor….as crybabies???
People now saying at a 75% level that they believe their children will not have the standard of living of their parents or grandparents and seeing their vote and wishes ignored by both Parties for the special interests of the Elites – being told to stop complaining because when the money going to the richest 2-3% is averaged in, the average American income is doing quite well, we are not in a recession but good economic times, with plenty of low wage, no benefit menial jobs just begging to be filled.
No, McCain could not have gotten rid of voodoo economics guru Gramm and his Enron Board wife fast enough.
McCain’s problem, though, as Rubin writes, is he has had 6 months to build an economic and domestic reform candidacy – but aside from drilling – McCain has failed to create such a candidacy – preferring instead to talk 80-90% of the time about Iraq and foreign policy. All while voter’s minds are being firmed up by the week since 2006 that Democrats only have plans for working the nations domestic and economic problems.
Jul 21, 2008 - 7:31 am 6. Ten:If McCain thinks he can wait until mid-Fall for his team to come up with a VP pick and a rival platform to challenge the Democrats, that goes beyond smugly and complacently praising and sticking with the Reagan domestic and economic Plan of 30 years ago – he is wrong.
And failing to come out of denial after the 2006 bloodletting showed voters wanted major change and reforms – may have meant it was too late for the old Senator even if he had a coherent post-Reagan Plan offered to the public last spring…
The next realistic economic analysis PJM publishes will be its first:
…income is rising slightly ahead of inflation;
You haven’t even estimated inflation realistically, author, which is in the 5% range and has been for years. The non-core CPI is some thirteen percent! http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2008/07/non-core-inflation-at-three-year-high.html
housing prices are down,
Housing prices are down forty percent in some markets and the Case-Shiller is going down the backside of this collapse curve in a mirror image for the bubble’s front side, a bubble built by the Fed. This isn’t even close to over.
but the typical house is still worth a third more than in 2000;
Unbelievable. This is because the crash is still going on and the big systemic ARM reset of next Spring isn’t here yet! You’d trumpet an artificial bubble as proof of economic health?
94% of Americans do not have threatened mortgages,
Meaning some 5,000,000 are defaulting by your estimates, and we’re maybe halfway through the collapse? Great news!
and of those who do, most will keep their homes.
Most? Do you really approve of socializing one point six trillion dollars in market losses by way of statist control of the banking system?
Inflation was up in 2007, but this stands out because the 16 previous years were close to inflation-free;
How can you possibly make such an irresponsible statement? June’s annualized rate was 13.2% alone, and that’s using the govt’s bogus CPI manipulations.
Sure, gas prices are up, the dollar is weak and credit is tight — but these are complaints at the margin of a mainly healthy society.
What a spectacular level of denial. Oil prices are doubling annually, author, and the monetary system is in panic.
What am I getting to? This: When the Oval Office changes hands and an overt Socialist takes power, maybe then the “right” side of the political divide will shake off this willful blindness and finally take a look at the simple fact that petty L v R politics isn’t the problem with this country.
Losing control of government is. And what better way to cost us control than by no longer owning our own financial system.
Jul 21, 2008 - 7:35 am 7. B Dubya:In the democrat dominated (I can’t characterize what is going on there as any form of leadership with which I am familiar)Congress, the Pelosi/Reed team are doing everything they can to tank the economy between now and November, in the course of getting Mr. Hopey Change elected. It is similar to the tactic used when Bill Clinton ran the first time; of course the 5% unemployment that GHWB presented was was a disaster, from the left view, while 3 years later 7.5% unemployment was “full employment” from the same people.
Jul 21, 2008 - 7:54 am 8. reb shlomo:As unfeeling as many of the Republicans appear to be to the left electorate, they don’t generally stoop to sabotage and subversion to get into office. But, let’s forget that and elect the culture of treason one last time.
McCAIN winning? I believe in miracles. Obama could be struck by lightning! REB SHLOMO
Jul 21, 2008 - 8:23 am 9. Jay:The center of American politics has cracked. Obama is a candidate from the left wing of the Dem party. McCain is a centrist but he is not good as articulating centrist positions.
Jul 21, 2008 - 12:08 pm 10. bncthor:Blacks are going to vote in record numbers and demand policies that will benefit them or at least their leaders at the expense of the white middle class and old folks.
The Green hysteria will doom our weakened economy.
…”McCain is a centrist but he is not good as articulating centrist positions.”
Perhaps, Sentor McCain will seek the assistance of his Senate colleague from Idaho to help him articulate these difficult positions.
Jul 21, 2008 - 12:37 pm 11. The Recession Is In Our Heads « Tai-Chi Policy:[...] in Capitalism and Economics, Democrats, Politics. trackback Even if McCain’s campaign won’t be able to get that point across. Actually, the sluggishness of the economy and the perceived troubles may be one of the reasons why [...]
Jul 21, 2008 - 12:45 pm 12. RuleTopia:McCain needs to do what liberals have done for years: talk about the benefits of his economic programs. For example, the benefit of choice in healthcare is lower cost and better service. The benefit of lower taxes and less government spending is more pay-raises and promotions for Americans and fewer firings. The benefit of drilling is lower gas prices. The benefit of freetrade is lower prices on products and food.
The difference between McCain and liberals in this regard is that the benefits McCain would promise are actually true.
Jul 21, 2008 - 7:22 pm 13. exDemocrat:To McCain’s credit, he WAS going to be on an oil rig today until the tropical storm perked up in the gulf.
That said, I’m giving Carly Fiorina another look-see as veep….I know she had some HP issure but label those as misogyny and we’ll have the Hillary voters.
Jul 23, 2008 - 12:54 pm 14. mwl:One thing McCain should do is to point out that if the Democrat-controlled Congress ends its resistance to domestic oil exploration, then hundreds (if not thousands) of American jobs would be created.
Jul 24, 2008 - 3:39 pm