Mrs. Clinton Goes to Asia

North Korean leader Kim Jong Il just might make Hillary's maiden tour as secretary of state an interesting one.

February 15, 2009 - by Gordon G. Chang
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Hillary Clinton will arrive in South Korea on the 19th of this month when she makes the third stop of her maiden tour as secretary of state. At least at this moment, the visit to Seoul looks like an afterthought, sandwiched between Tokyo and Jakarta, which come before, and Beijing, the last city on the itinerary.

Of course, North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, out of the spotlight for some time, could make Seoul the most watched portion of the trip. He could do that by, for instance, lighting off a missile while Mrs. Clinton is on the Korean peninsula. On Friday, just before leaving on her trip, she warned the North Koreans not to take any “provocative” steps.

It is clear, however, that they are about to: reports in the last few days indicate the North Koreans are preparing to test both short- and long-range missiles this month. It is the expected launch of their biggest missile that is of greater interest, of course. In September, a South Korean paper reported that last year a U.S. satellite detected an engine-ignition test for a North Korean missile capable of hitting the western United States. Then, on the third of this month, Yonhap News Agency stated that a South Korean defense official, who was not named, disclosed that a train was carrying what appeared to be a Taepodong-2 to a launch site.

Should we be concerned? A July 2006 test of a Taepodong ended in apparent failure 40 seconds into the flight. Yet missile-building nations learn as much from their failures as from their successes. We know a Taepodong-2 can reach Alaska, and the version on the train probably can hit the West Coast. With time, the North Koreans will be able to land a weapon any spot on earth.

They already have detonated a nuclear device, which fizzled after it was set off in October 2006. We don’t know whether Kim Jong Il now has mastered the difficulties of putting one of those devices on top of one of his missiles, but his technicians are extremely capable and have surprised us, especially at the end of last decade when they skipped a step and went from building one-stage missiles to experimenting with three-stage ones. We can only speculate as to the capability of the missile spotted on that train, but we can say it’s essentially “a Taepodong-3,” as one South Korean observer called it.

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Gordon G. Chang is the author of Nuclear Showdown: North Korea Takes On the World and The Coming Collapse of China.

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28 Comments

1. vivo:

Hilary:

Enjoy the mieumsang (미음상) and the sura (수라).

Feb 15, 2009 - 11:31 pm 2. Fairbanks99:

Were Hillary president, maybe real pressure would be placed on China to reign in N. Korea. Unfortunately, the leader of the Kumbaya Choir is in that position. “Dialog” will no more convince Kim Jong Il to give up nukes than it will Ahmadinejad. Chairman Obama will be depending too much on the Chinese to fund his vast spread the wealth stimulus schemes to ever play hardball with them.

Feb 15, 2009 - 11:38 pm 3. formwiz:

Fairbanks99, Hillary would do no more than Obambi will about the Norks. Her “tough” stands on defense were to help her get elected, no more. It was her husband’s administration that came up with the agreed framework, remember?

Feb 16, 2009 - 4:38 am 4. vivo:

2. Fairbanks99:

” “Dialog” will no more convince Kim Jong Il to give up nukes than it will Ahmadinejad. ”

They will agree on something, they just won’t tell anybody. Their public statements will not reflect it. Unless, they really don’t agree on anything.

Feb 16, 2009 - 4:41 am 5. David Thomson:

“…she will have to bring extraordinary pressure to bear on Beijing.”

The odds are better that Gordon Chang or I will humiliate Kobe Bryant on the basketball court. Barack Obama is a poorly educated, self-hating American. He is existentially committed to the notion that the United States is a racist nation that has crapped on the dark people of the world. Soft power is the only real option. Hard power will supposedly only get those who are already upset with us even angrier.

We are in serious danger. Our new president is unbelievably ignorant and unqualified. He hasn’t the foggiest idea how to respond to the threats of our enemies. Hold on tight. It’s going to be a rough four years.

Feb 16, 2009 - 4:44 am 6. keithacita:

“smart” diplomacy will now get a chance to prove itself. it’s a wonder china doesn’t have any ponzi schemes or misstated financials by public corporations.

Feb 16, 2009 - 8:23 am 7. Gordon Chang:

Fairbanks99, you wrote: “Chairman Obama will be depending too much on the Chinese to fund his vast spread the wealth stimulus schemes to ever play hardball with them.”

I am sure that is how Obama thinks. But with China’s export earnings falling precipitously, the Chinese are going to reduce their purchase of Treasury obligations no matter how nice we are to them. Moreover, with Americans consuming less and saving more, we have greater capacity to fund our own debt.

Feb 16, 2009 - 8:50 am 8. Gordon Chang:

Keithacita, you wrote: “it’s a wonder china doesn’t have any ponzi schemes or misstated financials by public corporations.”

Are you sure about that?

Feb 16, 2009 - 8:52 am 9. vivo:

6. keithacita:

“it’s a wonder china doesn’t have any ponzi schemes or misstated financials by public corporations.”

You have no idea . . .

They are not different from the rest of the World. They are just 2 billion people.

Feb 17, 2009 - 3:41 am 10. APatriot:

Who is the Secretary of State?

I live in Japan, and since Hillary’s arrival on a Presidential aircraft with her entire family and a huge entourage, I see her every hour on the local TV news channels. Every video clip shows Bill (I didn’t have sex with that woman) Clinton hovering nearby. Who is SecState, Hillary or Bill? When is Hillary going to stand on her own merit and quit depending on dufus to make the decisions that affect our nation. He wasn’t appointed, or was he? Another Obombus slieght of hand?

Feb 17, 2009 - 3:50 am 11. Gordon Chang:

APatriot, thanks for the info on Bill Clinton’s presence on Japanese television. Most interesting.

Feb 17, 2009 - 5:36 am 12. Bilgeman:

Mr. Chang:

“North Korean leader Kim Jong Il just might make Hillary’s maiden tour as secretary of state an interesting one.”

I’ll bet they get along like a house on fire. The “Dear Leader” and the “UberFrauFuhrer” share many of the same character traits.

Oh, by the way…is she planning on coming back?

Feb 17, 2009 - 6:08 am 13. WC:

Ooooh! Tough talk from Hillary. She said a missle launch by North Korea “would be very unhelpful in moving our relationship forward.” I’m sure Kim Jong Il is shaking in his boots right now. Our enemies in the world such as North Korea, Cuba, Venezeula, the Taliban, Iran, and Russia are watching closely and now see a US that will not respond to most provocations. Much of the world likes Obama because they think he will bring peace. But those who would like to destroy us are seeing opportunity, softness, and a willingness to constantly turn the other cheek…..at least until we have another 9/11 event anyway.

So you go get ‘em Hillary. I’m sure our enemies are already in full retreat.

Feb 17, 2009 - 7:42 am 14. Marc Malone:

#13 WC – You beat me to it. The world is emboldened. No one fears Obama. Expect them to launch a missile just to embarass Hillary.

Feb 17, 2009 - 3:07 pm 15. vivo:

10. APatriot:

“Who is the Secretary of State?”

Sounds like the Japanese MSM has its own way of distorting reality and demeaning someone of the “weak sex”. They have a very macho mentality. Heard of any prominent Japanese woman?

Feb 18, 2009 - 4:57 am 16. Vinny Vidivici:

Bill Clinton was the best president China ever had. I’m sure the Mrs. will be the best Secretary of State China ever had, too.

Feb 18, 2009 - 5:50 am 17. Vinny Vidivici:

Have to agree (for the first time!) w/vivo comment 4 (no offense, viv) — state visit as photo op with any agreements behind closed doors. But for reasons vivo would likely disagree:

Obama will be far too useful to America’s antagonists and enemies to be demonized like Reagan and Bush II, or humilliated like Carter, or, maybe, even ridiculed like Clinton. They saw a neutered Carter replaced by a muscular Reagan, and saw two governments toppled in the wake of 9/11. So, they’ll want Obama in office as long as possible. The quid pro quo for refraining from public challenge will be getting much of what they want from a president more suspicious of his own nation than any other.

To the degree Obama and a foreign policy tream steeped in bogus ‘conflict resolution’ theories are committed to diminished U.S. influence and deference to the UN, etc., his global media cheering section will do everything they can to make him look good and the international Left will (occasionally) applaud. Hollywood will assist by making movies about likeable American presidents, as they did throughout the 90’s.

Insecure Americans who worry more about being well-regarded in Europe than whether their nation is doing the right or necessary thing will be reassured by cooing approval on BBC-America. The ’see how much everyone hates you’ subtext of its coverage will be replaced by ’see how much more pleasant it is when you do what we want’.

We’ve gone from a nation whose enemies existed only at our forebearance to a nation whose foreign policy is dictated by what our enemies will allow or will not tolerate.

Feb 18, 2009 - 6:14 am 18. Northern Light:

I wonder how much we have to fear North Korea.

Chang, for the sake of accuracy mentioned N. Korea’s previous attempts to launch missiles and test a nuclear warhead. Both were spectacular abject failures. I predict that Chang will be alarmed at how much N. Korea could potentially learn when their next round of tests fail too.

If China wasn’t supporting N. Korea their economy would have collapsed years ago. China has missiles that work and nuclear warheads but they don’t seem anxious to share them with their ally (maybe because they know how crazy their ally is).

So if North Korea could develop a long-range missile, if they could make a nuke that works without their ramshackle nuclear reactor (just the thought of a ramshackle nuclear reactor is scarier than anything Chang mentioned), if they put their nuke on their missile and fired it at someone with no provocation, and if American missile-defense failed (this is the only “if” that seems likely). North Korea would be a destructive nuclear power.

That is for about 12 hours. I am fairly pacifistic, but I believe that any country that did something like that should be wiped off the face of the planet. The USA would be free, with the blessings from almost everybody on Earth, To reduce N. Korea to a smoldering pit. Even a madman would realize this. Dictators have a strong sense of preservation, nothing, not even China, could save Kim if he fired a nuke.

Feb 18, 2009 - 9:18 am 19. Oscar the Grump:

Can we get Asia to keep her?

Feb 18, 2009 - 6:08 pm 20. Gordon Chang:

Bilgeman, Madeleine Albright and Kim hit it off, so you may be right about Mrs. Clinton.

Feb 18, 2009 - 6:54 pm 21. Gordon Chang:

WC, you wrote: “I’m sure our enemies are already in full retreat.” I think there are some in this country who actually think Obama’s foreign policies will have the world’s tyrants on their heels. Wishful thinking is, unfortunately, on the rise in Washington.

Feb 18, 2009 - 6:57 pm 22. Gordon Chang:

Vinny Vidivici, I think Beijing liked the Bush presidents more. At least for the moment, they appear to be genuninely concerned about that Obama will change Dubya’s policies.

Feb 18, 2009 - 7:00 pm 23. Gordon Chang:

Northern Light, I agree with what you write, but Kim could make himself a real menace without putting one of his nukes on a missile. Selling nukes, for instance, could start a chain of events that would be truly horrific.

Feb 18, 2009 - 7:03 pm 24. Gordon Chang:

Oscar the Grump, I’m sorry, but she will be returning home soon.

Feb 18, 2009 - 7:03 pm 25. Marc Malone:

#17 Vinny – That would be the smart thing to do, but they won’t do it. Tyrants/Bullies can’t help themselves. When they perceive weakness, they push. They must. On Inauguration Day, China published its White Paper determining to dominate the East within ten years. They had Obama’s measure.

#18 Northern Light – The danger from Korea is a nuking of S. Korea or Japan. Do we nuke in retaliation? Would Obama?

Feb 19, 2009 - 12:40 am 26. Northern Light:

Marc Malone,

If any country was to use nuclear weapons without provocation I suspect that the world would agree the aggressor must pay the supreme penalty.

It wouldn’t matter if N. Korea bombed Japan, Taiwan, Hawaii, Seattle, or Burkina Faso, the penalty would be the same. I am a pacifistic peacenik and I believe this. If you think Obama wouldn’t do it, what about the other nations who have nukes? Even the French would retaliate in an unprovoked situation.

If you want to worry about nuclear weapons I would suggest you look to India and Pakistan. Two mortal enemies both with nuclear weapons who claim enough provocation to fire them. That’s a lot scarier than worrying about North Korea.

Feb 19, 2009 - 5:57 am 27. Gordon Chang:

Northern Light, Pakistan may be the most dangerous nuclear state at this moment. But wait until Iran develops its bomb. The mullahs will undoubtedly give the Pakistanis competition in this regard.

Feb 19, 2009 - 7:05 pm 28. pappy:

n. korea will participate in nuclear talks when they get another boatload of cash. i suspect pakistan and iran are going to use the same tactics once some negotiations begin with them. perhaps the new israeli prime minister will save us from having to bother with iran.

Feb 22, 2009 - 9:34 am