New Jersey and Virginia Governors’ Races Heat Up
Both races are a replay of the 2008 elections — but with a party role reversal.
Even former Democratic Governor Doug Wilder thinks McDonnell may have the upper hand:
Wilder said “there’s something in the air” that makes him think Virginia voters aren’t prepared to elect a Democrat to the governorship for the third straight time. Democrats Mark Warner and Tim Kaine have won the last two gubernatorial elections in the commonwealth. Before that, Republicans won two consecutive victories with George Allen and Jim Gilmore.
“Each time around, voters say, ‘Wait a minute, no one’s supposed to be here forever,’ and I think Virginians like to see that degree of balance,” Wilder said in an interview with CNN. “They like to mix it up. I think the guy who can ride that horse to show some grasp of the independent voter, rather than just the Republican or Democratic voter, will be successful. That’s key.”
In some ways both races are a replay of the 2008 elections — but with a party role reversal. In 2008, Democrats benefited from a sagging economy, a strong desire to “throw the bums out,” and a hope that political acrimony and incompetence could be replaced with collegial, smart government.
In New Jersey, George W. Bush is a fading memory but Jon Corzine is the floundering incumbent. He is the one with the record of fiscal mismanagement, a culture of political corruption, and an aura of missed opportunities. The Goldman Sachs “genius” ran on a platform of reform and business acumen. But he is now shouldering the blame for the state with the worst business climate in America and is sporting a laundry list of broken promises on everything from tax rebates to school reform. As a result, Corzine’s poll numbers look starkly like Bush’s at the end of his final term.
In Virginia, Kaine leaves office with a paltry record of accomplishment and rising concerns about the budget, taxes, school funding, and transportation. Unlike popular Mark Warner, who handed Kaine the political baton in 2005, Kaine is in no position to do the same for the Democratic contender or to point to any significant accomplishment in the last four years of Democratic rule.
Meanwhile, Big Labor is licking its chops, hoping to muscle into the right-to-work state. That image suits McDonnell just fine, as this report explains:
McDonnell spokesman Tucker Martin said the issue offers evidence of union pressure and labor’s increasing sway in a right-to-work state, which prohibits agreements between trade groups and employers that would require union dues as a condition of employment.
“In a right-to-work state, that puts them more in line with their national union benefactors than voters of this state,” Martin said.
So in a very real sense, both the Virginia and New Jersey races test whether voters will put up with higher taxes, Big Labor influence, and fiscal profligacy when Republicans field viable and attractive candidates. Democrats will certainly rely on the president to campaign and raise money, but the issue will be whether state voters want not Obama, but liberal government.
By selecting Christie and McDonnell, Republicans have made it more difficult for their opponents to run against the stereotypical “right-wing” Republican who is only interested in social issues. (While both Christie and McDonnell are pro-life, neither is making social issues the mainstay of their campaign.) They’ll try, of course, but in tough economic times it’s questionable whether voters will fall for grainy ads tying the Republican to Rush Limbaugh or screaming that the Republican will take away “a woman’s right to choose.” (Last time we looked, Roe v. Wade was still the law of the land.) Martin observes:
The old box that Democrats attempt to put every Republican into just doesn’t fit Bob McDonnell. He combines the right message with the right vehicle, and Democrats both here and nationally are scared to death about it. This explains their unprecedented early negative television barrage. The majority of Virginians aren’t conservative or liberal, they are just looking for the candidate with the best ideas to help make their lives a little better.
If McDonnell and/or Christie succeed, many political obituaries for the GOP will need to be torn up. And a few assumptions about the new era of liberal dominance may go by the wayside as well.
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Jennifer Rubin is PJM's Washington, DC, editor. She also blogs at Commentary’s Contentions.
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14 Comments
1. ricpic:“The firebrand challenger.” You mean Lonegan, the genuine conservative. The Republicans again chose to go with a moderate and will again be beaten.
Jun 8, 2009 - 3:05 am 2. njcommuter:Recent polls indicate that Lonegan would probably win the general election and Christie would not. I hope Christie wins the general for a number of reasons but there’s no indication that he appreciates the structural issues that need fixing. Lonegan at least says he does.
Case in point: The “raise taxes on most citizens” is Christie’s campaign slogan. He quickly stopped the ads that quoted Lonegan as saying that the Property Tax Rebate is a “gimmick.” They were probably working against Christie because the rebate is a gimmick, letting general revenues cover the cost of local schools by rebating the property taxes from the state budget. Most people–or at least most Republicans–see that there is a problem here, and that we have a chewing-gum-and-bailing-wire fix. And most Republicans are finding the status quo more and more troublesome.
Jun 8, 2009 - 4:16 am 3. "progressive"watch:Rubin seemed confused. She usually is not. It seems as if she confuses politics with principles and is saying loss of principles is the price of being elected. Then what is the gain? Why should the choice be between a democrat without principles by party plank or a republican without any real principles.
Jun 8, 2009 - 5:22 am 4. Old Soldier:I agree with njcommuter. I voted for Lonegan last week – his positions were totally mischaracterized in this article – and by Christie. A flat-tax and a break-up of Newark’s corrupt bloated school district sound like excellent ideas.
That said, I hope Christie is successful this fall. It is a state election so national politics play only a small role. There is a sense that we have had no adult leadership in NJ since Whitman left office. McGreevy’s shenanigans were well documented (by Christie’s investigators), and Corzine has been in bed literally and figuratively with the public employee unions that are bankrupting the state.
National politics have added to the perception that government is out of control. With the lack of adult leadership in Washington these days, there will be a perception that a moderately conservative Republican somewhere in the process will add a little balance. As an off-year election, it may also help that only the motivated bother voting
Jun 8, 2009 - 5:24 am 5. Blackwater:Man, I really hope Virginia gets a Republican governor. Especially since the man running seems to be a pretty decent fellow. As a Virginian I’m disgusted to see our state turn blue in the last couple years. It’s all these damned leftist communists in my part of Virginia unfortunately who have been enslaved er I mean employed by the federal government. Everyone who works for the various agencies in Washington D.C. all live here in the MOST wealthy county and area of the country here in Northern Virginia. In my county of Fairfax we have the highest average income our of every county in the country because everyone is making it rich by leeching off the federal government. Why do you think they all vote Democrap? Job security. The Democraps give them the handouts and in return they give them their votes.
Jun 8, 2009 - 5:41 am 6. Fred Beloit:Jenifer, Jenifer. Being Republican means nothing to me…nothing. Most pols are in business. They want to make money. (True some have other, far more sinister motives.) The only way they can is by being elected. But look how idiotic and/or conniving some of them are, regardless of party.
Now you take global warming…please, AKA, climate change. The supporters of action on this political/scientific(???) issue are really proposing this. No, they really are, they just express the idea in a mealy-mouthed jargon and in a way that will cause certain people to make a lot of money for doing basically nothing.
They want to put a big thermostat in a Bureau of Standards facility. This thermostat would annually be set to control the temperature of the earth to within a few tenths of a degree Centigrade of the ideal temperature. There is only one decision left to be made, and it is crucial. They have yet to decide what the ideal temperature should be.
These people are, for example, Obama, Bush, McCain, Gore, Lieberman, Pelosi, the Maine sisters, the California sisters, and Romney. Many in both parties are all for it.
Would you truly, honestly, want us to vote for people like this, people who are so dumb or so corrupt just because they might be Republicans?
Jun 8, 2009 - 7:28 am 7. jerryofva:As a rare conservative Republican living in the Peoples Republic of Arlington I am going to vote in tomorrow’s Democratic primary in sort of a maximin strategy. I want to make sure that Mr. Deeds does indeed go to town. I dread the thought of McAuliffe or another member of the corrupt Moran clan sitting in the statehouse and turning Virginia into an upper South version of New Jersey.
Jun 8, 2009 - 7:57 am 8. JAY:I live in Virginia. I have voted for the Republicans in every election for 30 years. They won’t get my vote again unless a real conservative runs. If McDonnell sounds like another “moderate”, get along Republican, he’ll get no vote and no support from me.
Jun 8, 2009 - 11:41 am 9. BobbyRomano:Rubin is obviously on the take from the RNC. Her attacks on Steve Lonegan are what you would expect from Barack Obama. It’s unfortunate that someone who claims to be a conservative would sell out the savior of our party for Thirty Pieces of Silver.
Jun 8, 2009 - 5:14 pm 10. Marc Malone:#9 Bobby – I always have trouble with Rubin’s articles. She is typical of the confused neocons. They are moderates, but think they are true cons. Thus, the reference “firebrand”.
This is the problem within the party. The moderates don’t know they’re moderates. Or, they label themselves as compassionate cons (read, moderates). In the old days, they were known as Rockefeller Pubs, happy to be included while the Dems ran things. Such are the career politicians who make all the messes. They defame the party as they ride the gubmint gravy train.
Jun 8, 2009 - 7:56 pm 11. James:As a former Jersey resident, I can tell you first hand about how corrupt and bloated NJ has become. A good (but often overlooked) example at how hostile the state has become is to is the plight of the restauranteur. You can’t open a decent restaurant because a simple liquor license is either unavailable or unaffordable. Anybody in the “fine-dining” restaurant business knows that the bucks are made on the booze. But to get a simple liquor license, you’ll need a half-million at least for the license, a bit more for graft, and a political connection. I live in California now, where the politicians are fiscally retarded, but not nearly as corrupt as their NJ counterparts. I can obtain a beer and wine license for about $10,000 and a liquour license for about $25,000 here in the Golden State. No graft, very little wait time. And I can make a living. You know why NJ Republicans didn’t elect Lonegan? Because their all Demo-lights. They forgot what a conservative is. The state is lost.
Jun 8, 2009 - 8:13 pm 12. Praetorian:A Republican won’t win in New Jersey, especially one that’s anti-choice. They’re gonna wrap it right around his neck and won’t let voters forget it for a minute. New Jersey is a fiscally moderate and socially liberal state. However, if they have to choose between keeping government out of their pocket or out of their body they will choose keeping government out of their body every time. In fact, the only kind of Republican that can win in New Jersey would be one like pro-choice Republican star Christine Todd Whitman. Stupid Republicans threw her under the bus a long time ago.
Jun 8, 2009 - 8:59 pm 13. Ed Wallis:Interesting approach, Jerryofva #7, yet that’s why I chose to vote for Moran: to pick the candidate who would most likely LOSE to the Republican candidate. Deeds was picked by the Washington Post…so I couldn’t see my way clear of validating their baby.
Jun 9, 2009 - 8:12 am 14. Old Soldier:Praetorian: Stupid Christine Todd Whitman threw herself under the bus. She was so obsessed with abortion, she would only nominate “pro-choice” judges. Unfortunately, there is nothing in the NJ constitution regarding abortion. So, he had to nominate judges who couldn’t be bothered reading the constitution (state or federal). They came up with decisions like “Abbot” that soaked up all the income tax revenue and diverted it to the cities, driving suburban property taxes to the highest levels in the country. Thanks Christie.
Jun 9, 2009 - 10:24 am