New Political Openings for GOP in Age of Obama
Need proof? Look at New York's congressional election results.
The New York 20th congressional special election is over but not decided. On Tuesday night Democrat Scott Murphy held a 65-vote margin. Recanvassing has put Republican Jim Tedisco narrowly ahead. The race will be decided by some 10,000 absentee ballots, 6,000 of which have been returned. These appear to favor, but do not by any means guarantee, that Tedisco will come out on top.
Democrats and their media spinners, who just days before the race declared this would prove the president’s enduring popularity and the electoral potency of his stimulus plan, have grown hushed. They mumble that it doesn’t mean much of anything. Just move along; nothing to see here.
But in fact it may mean something important. When a district which voted Democratic by a 62-38% margin drops to 50-50% in five months something is happening.
Stu Rothenberg declared “Tuesday night offered Republicans a small but important bit of evidence that they have turned the corner.” And he disputed the Democratic spin that registration figures favoring the GOP make this a supposedly “safe” district for Republicans, noting that Barack Obama and Kirsten Gillibrand carried the district in 2008 as did Democrats Eliot Spitzer and Hillary Clinton in 2006, and Sen. Charles Schumer in 2004. He notes:
Talk of a stunning Murphy surge from far back is ridiculous and ignores normal campaign dynamics. … I can’t see why Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen (Md.) and DNC Chairman Tim Kaine would be confident that Murphy will expand his lead. I don’t know who will eventually win, but more Republican than Democratic absentee ballots have been received, according to GOP sources.
Finally, the returns have something bigger to say about the political environment, and both parties have reason to take away something positive from the dead heat.
Often, special elections are opportunities to send a message to the sitting president — a message of restraint and caution. We don’t trust you completely, so we are sending someone of the opposition to Congress to keep an eye on you, is how I’d put it.
The National Journal’s Hotline echoed this theme:
But whether Scott Murphy (D) or Jim Tedisco (R) ultimately emerges from the morass of attys and absentee ballots as the NY-20 victor, new polling suggests GOPers may be the ones with bragging rights. … But almost as important for GOPers, our polling shows that indies are now up for grabs. That bears out what we saw in NY-20, where, according to the last Siena poll, Tedisco actually led among indies. When was the last time GOPers were competitive among these voters? It’s been awhile.
The party failed in ‘06 and ‘08 because its base was apathetic and because indies moved en masse to Dems. If the base reactivates, and if the party can continue to stay competitive among indies, ‘10 could get interesting.
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Jennifer Rubin is PJM's Washington, DC, editor. She also blogs at Commentary’s Contentions.
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65 Comments
1. Войска ПВО:..and the sad thing is that the GOP did this by running a stiff. One begins to wonder when some members of this party will realize that all people really want is law-abiding, common-sense governance and responsible oversight on how our tax money is spent.
The tail wind behind such a candidate would be a veritable jet stream. Witness how Dodd’s troubles are beginning to shape up in his 2010 re-election bid.
On the other side of the ledger, the Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll is instructive as it wanders ever closer to the point where the highly favorable will cross the highly unfavorable on its way Southward.
remember how folks commented on GWB blowng his 2004 Political capital in the first year of his re-election? Seems like the Alleged Hawaiian has gone through his roll faster than a drunken whaler on his first night ashore on Maui.
Apr 3, 2009 - 1:34 am 2. elvis:It means there is a REAL TEA PARTY Brewing!
Apr 3, 2009 - 4:35 am 3. Larry Miller:I think the mid-term election is going to be a mirror image of Clinton’s first mid-term election. The country just elected a young president that campaigned one way and governed in another, more Liberal way. The first referendum on Clinton was a total blow-out. Republicans won both houses of Congress and the so-called MSM was left wondering if Clinton was “relevant” to the national political debate. I think members of Obama’s base, the so-called MSM, are going to be left shaking their heads trying to figure out how their ‘team’ got their butts handed to them.
Apr 3, 2009 - 4:44 am 4. RAH:Too early to gloat. Tedisco may lose yet. Many military ballots wilj not count since they will not be postmarked in time.
I think Tedisco will win, but it is not certain.
Coleman is losing and that took some effort
Apr 3, 2009 - 5:01 am 5. David Thomson:“Seems like the Alleged Hawaiian has gone through his roll faster than a drunken whaler on his first night ashore on Maui.”
Barack Obama’s poll numbers are half way decent only because of white race guilt. This probably gives him an extra 5% in any given poll. Nonetheless, he will continue to lose popularity. It’s only a matter of time before the phony Bill Cosby shtick wears thin.
Apr 3, 2009 - 5:01 am 6. Pops in Vienna:I would love nothing better than to see the Republicans regain control of the House and Senate in 2010 but I think it’s way to early for hope. In fact, I’d say there are many more reasons for despair.
The stock market is improving and as other non governmental forces kick in the economy might not be too scary in 2010. The MSM will give Obama all the credit for any kind of up turn in the economy. It may not be an issue by then.
Republicans really need to start getting their act together. It looks like this dud spud candidate got lucky in New York. This guy will very likely turn out to be another RINO and will fail to impress. Look for the seat to return to the Dems next time it comes up.
The ONLY eloquent and passionate spokesmen we have for conservatives come from talk radio. Our elected Republican representatives fail to speak out against Obama. Look how many of them vote for these crazy bills that are being shoved through Congress. Even our past presidential candidates are AWOL. Where’s Thompson, Giuliani, Huckabee and Palin? Instead of Sean Hannity touring the country, whipping up support, they should be doing it. We have no Winston Churchill, straining at the lease to attack. Very sad, indeed.
Obama will do everything he can to keep us from getting involved in another major military action (to our detriment later). The economy will be much better in months ahead. Our grand kids will have to pay off the debt but the voters will be pleased with all the pork the bail out bills brought home to their districts.
I look for Obama to be a two term President (unless they ignore the Constitution and he runs for a 3rd and 4th term). He’ll also maintain working control of the Congress with help from the RINOs.
Apr 3, 2009 - 5:21 am 7. Northern Light:If I was a Republican I wouldn’t celebrate this too much.
This is a rural seat which has often voted Republican in the past. At one point Tedisco was leading by double digits. The GOP gave this insignificant contest a lot of time and money. In addition, contests like this (we call them byelections in Canada, I don’t know if Americans use that term) are not always indicative of voting trends. Turnout is usually low and, at least in Canada, elections like this are usually not great for the party in power because voters with a grudge are more likely to come out and vote.
I realize that I may not be 100% correct on my observations (does anyone know what the turnout was?) but even though I suspect when the final decision is announced (which judging from Minnesota might be years away) Tedisco is going to win, I wouldn’t start measuring drapes for the White House. The Republican Party has a lot of hard work to do before it is ready to re-take power.
I have been an election official in dozens of Canadian elections. Although all election officials have their own political beliefs we are neutral officials. By election day all we really care about is that no matter who wins, there is a substantial margin so that we don’t have to go through the agony of a recount. I pity the poor election officials in New York 20, the next few weeks are going to be Hell on them with every tiny piece of their work examined by lawyers from both sides ready to jump on any detail they decide isn’t in their candidate’s best interests. As I say, I know the mechanics of Canadian elections far better than American ones, but I know that both the Democrats and the Republicans will send their nastiest lawyers to fight for or against every ballot. I just hope at the end of all of this (probably sometime in 2011) that the election officials survive the ordeal.
Apr 3, 2009 - 5:26 am 8. Tom H.:Until the GOP seriously gains some fortitude instead of a bunch of whishy washy wanna bes the GOP will never recover. Until they all become fiscally responsible, stop with the pork and stop taking special interest money (AIG and Fannie/Freddie as example)….they are just the same as Democrats with merely a different name.
Apr 3, 2009 - 5:31 am 9. David S:Certainly the GOP will do better by focusing on Obama, rather than trying to run on the (dismal) GOP record of the past eight years. But to portray this dead-heat as representing an opening for Republicans is rather optimistic.
Statistically, NY-20 is about 2% more Republican than the average nationwide. Tedisco is also a well known and respected politician in the state, relatively speaking, while his opponent was a complete unknown. Tedisco should have blown Murphy out of the water – the fact that a completely unknown Democrat could pull even with a prominent and long-serving GOP representative, and possibly end up taking the seat, does not speak well to GOP prospects.
This may not have been a “safe” seat for the GOP – but if your thesis on GOP openings is true, it should not have been this easy for the Democrats to compete.
Peace.
DS
Apr 3, 2009 - 5:34 am 10. fear Obama:The toughest job for Obama will be to find a way to blame all this unemployment on the former Bush administration.
Apr 3, 2009 - 5:49 am 11. Sapwolf:If the GOP can duplicate Sarah Palin in all 435 districts and run them, they’ll take the House back.
Tedisco was a very weak candidate and they still might squeak out a win.
The danger now is that the RNC will draw the WRONG conclusion from this election on why they won, if they win. They risk trying the same RINO strategy, further watering down the GOP for the medium to long-term.
This is a short-term win, but I wouldn’t celebrate too much.
Apr 3, 2009 - 6:03 am 12. MarkD:The GOP had better heed Gingrich’s warning. I will vote for a small government party in a flash over Dem-lite. I’m beyond anger over these lying thieves in Washington.
Apr 3, 2009 - 6:28 am 13. Steve P.:Who are you trying to fool? The New York 20th is a rural Republican district that has 70,000 more Republicans registered than Democrats. Republicans should have won this race without a problem. The fact that this race is so close is just another testament to the fact that the GOP is dead.
Apr 3, 2009 - 6:43 am 14. Samizdat:I only know of Tedisco by a few television appearances and a few articles I have read about his campaign. That being said, he doesn’t strike me as the second coming of Reagan. It looked to me like his campaign made some missteps that should have been fatal, especially how he handled the stimulus issue. Despite those handicaps he may have won, or finished a very close second. That should tell us something about our countries evolving assesment of the current administration and Congress, especially when we see how this district has voted in the last several elections decidedly for the Democrat candidate.
Apr 3, 2009 - 6:59 am 15. The Shadow:Republicans need to start speaking with one voice and sounding like MP Daniel Hannan. The “stimulus”, the 3.6 trillion dollar budget, huge deficits, high unemployment and coming inflation will not wear well with an electorate that remembers prosperity. Conservatives celebrate Cong. Ryan’s alternative budget. Republicans vote against him. That’s why I resigned from the RNC two years ago, it had become Democrat lite and was advancing an agenda I was ashamed of.
Tedisco is representative of what’s wrong with Republicans and he may have won anyway. That should cause some Democrat anxiety.
Typical article by this moron. Try citing facts like how many registered Republicans and Democrats there are in the District
Apr 3, 2009 - 7:14 am 16. Warpublican:The thing I love about Jennifer Rubin is her ability to be wrong so often (it’s a Neo-Con Zionista, obstructionist traitor kinda thing)! Remember when the market hated Obama because stocks dipped for his first two months in office? Where’s Rubin now?
So here we have a veteran Republican winnning (maybe)in a republican district in a squeaker to a no-name first-timer Democrat who appeared out of nowhere. And – let’s not forget, the Republicans outspent the democrat – and Obama never campaigned upstate – he sent an Email.
here’s a prediction: if Murhphey wins, J-Rub will ignore the results. if tedesco wins, J-Rub will herald it as she is above – and if in 2010 Republicans fail to gain back a majority in the congress, J-Rub – proven wrong – once again, will pretend she never said a word…
Apr 3, 2009 - 7:41 am 17. John:Two months ago Stu Rothenburg said it was a disaster for the GOP if they didn’t retake this seat. I think Charlie Cook’s take is the right one. A narrow win doesn’t mean much other than that the electoral landscape is much the same as it was on November 4.
Apr 3, 2009 - 7:44 am 18. Carl:“provided they run candidates appropriate to the region…?”
You are kidding right..?
Apr 3, 2009 - 7:47 am 19. rom:Well,at least we will all have our Bowing and Scraping POS-in Chief.
Apr 3, 2009 - 7:54 am 20. one of my own:When life hands you lemons, make stuff up. (Psst. Did you know Obama went to a madrassa? He’s not even an American. Wait, it gets worse – he’s not a Christian! He’s not one of US, you can tell just by looking at him.)
“Lemonade 2 cents as glass! We had to mark it down because nobody was buying it at a nickel! Lemonade 2 cents a glass!”
Apr 3, 2009 - 7:56 am 21. Steve P.:“provided they run candidates appropriate to the region…?”
Yeah, please tell what “region” Sarah Palin is appropriate for, besides the nether region?
Apr 3, 2009 - 8:00 am 22. JohnR22:Who sits in the seat is irrelevant. What IS relevant is that a seat that voted 62-38 Dem in the last election is now down to 50-50. Yeah, it’s traditionally (prior to 2004) a republican seat, but don’t forget that Obama got elected by huge numbers of swing voters who are by no means Leftists. The question is which way will the swing voters lean in 2010. IMO if the economy improves and unemployment drops (say DOW at 10,000 and unemployment below 6%) the Dems will do OK in 2010. If the economy stays flat, all this borrowing/spending is going to bite the Dems big time.
Apr 3, 2009 - 8:05 am 23. Grover:Having lived in Mass. all my life, I must agree with #18 Carl. This is the state which elected Ted Kennedy right after he killed Mary Jo Kopechne in a drunk-drive stupor and who has been repeatedly re-elected. And while we’re about it let’s remember Barney Frank, John Kerry, Chris Dodd to name three. Who will the GOP put forth as opposition to these ‘winners’? More luke-warm candidates like Jim Tedisco? Get real!
Apr 3, 2009 - 8:15 am 24. Войска ПВО:JohnR22, I am inclined to agree with you. All of the posturing one way or another about what a bellweather election this is is like forecasting that the Red Sox and the Dodgers will appear in the World Series one week after the opening of the baseball season just because they have the best records in they respective leagues.
..but I do repeat my original thought: the guy is a stiff and fought the Democrat to a draw.
Apr 3, 2009 - 8:19 am 25. Tonya:I will not be negative today. I feel that a Republican win is just that (if he wins), and it will be a win. Good for New York, and I think he will if they count the military votes, because they are not happy.
“Banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. ” Thomas Jefferson in 1802
“My reading of history convinces me that most bad government results from too much government.” Thomas Jefferson
Apr 3, 2009 - 8:20 am 26. Samizdat:JohnR22 is right on. If the economy improves as he suggests, the Democrats are going to do well in the midterm elections. If it doesn’t, the Republicans have a significant isssue that the electorate will pay attention to.
Apr 3, 2009 - 8:28 am 27. DaveinHackensack:I note that some of the the comments regarding Rubin’s post immediatly resort to ad hominem attack. Why not refute her analysis if you disagree, rather than weakening your argument by resorting to irrelevant personal ridicule.
I wouldn’t get too confident. NY-20 is a conservative district. That it voted for Obama by such a large margin just tells you how unpopular Republicans became by the end of President Bush’s term. Remember, by 2006, Americans had mostly soured on the Iraq War, and then, when it had turned around by last year, the economy started to tank.
The GOP is hurting now because our politicians with national exposure look stupid, e.g., Gov. Jindal claiming that volcano monitoring — i.e., preventing Americans from getting killed by molten lava — was an example of wasteful government spending. That makes us sound retarded, and Jindal’s a bright guy. Same with the calls for fiscal austerity during the worst recession since WWII. The vast majority of economists agree with the call for deficit-financed fiscal stimulus in times like these.
If we don’t smarten up, we won’t give voters a viable alternative.
Apr 3, 2009 - 8:36 am 28. Old Soldier:The 2010 elections are going to be decided by taxes. That’s why the Democrats are trying to put off the day of reckoning for their crazy spending until 2011.
April 15, 2011 is the scheduled wake up call for all those earners who aren’t paying attention. If the Republicans can get these people to look 6 months into the future they will win big.
If not, the Republicans will gain a few seats (Harry Reid is a dead duck in Nevada for instance), but will not gain control of Congress.
Apr 3, 2009 - 8:51 am 29. JOHN B:Listen up folks. Obama is in Europe giving away our sovereignty. This guy is going to destroy this country if there isn’t a strong opposition. One party controlling the whole thing, democrat or republican, is not good for this country. What we are doing to our children is a crime. This guy doesn’t know what he’s doing. To bad too, this was once a great country. Hopefully it wont be to late.
Apr 3, 2009 - 9:01 am 30. westerncanadian:An encouraging result that reveals good prospects for further gains. From a distance it still seems that the GOP remains a damaged brand. In spite of the many good points of President Bush, his second term slogan was “cut taxes, increase spending”. The GOP wears that and many ordinary people think it’s goofy. The politicians in Washington have plainly subverted government to their own venal ends. The GOP is tarred with that brush too. Ordinary people think it’s disgusting.
In theory the GOP could go through some miraculous conversion which made them live up to the US Constitution. If this miracle made ordinary people think that Americans could be self-governing once more, and it could happen by voting Republican, then the GOP would take the 2010 and the 2012 elections by a country mile. In practice that’s a long shot because of the rotten condition of Washington politics and because the entitlement culture has the US in it’s grip, just like it does in Canada.
There are good prospects for the GOP but they can’t win simply by being “less worse” than the Democrats. They have to convince a big part of the electorate that a Republican government will at least resemble ordinary people exercising self government, according to the Constitution. Not there yet.
Apr 3, 2009 - 9:02 am 31. JackT:This is a Republican district, so why wouldn’t the Republican win? No big deal if Scott failed. Who cares, Obama has a 63% approval rating. The Repubs are lost, and the more they attack Obama the better for him. Quite frankly, there is no Republican in office that can challenge the intelligence, charm, and skill of our Prez. I am 100% sure he will be re-elected in 2012. I have never been so proud of our Prez than I am now. I wasn’t around for Kennedy so I don’t really know how to compare, but Obama has something special, I know it, the Repubs know it, the world knows it. God has truly blessed our nation by putting Obama at the helm.
Apr 3, 2009 - 9:57 am 32. wancow:BULL-BLEEP, Jennifer! Bull! If the GOP were worth voting for, this country wouldn’t have a Barak Obama running it.
As I said in another post, the GOP is Fascism Lite, while the Democrat Party is at least un-appologetic about what their doing.
Until Proven otherwise, I won’t let anyone convince me that Jim Tedisco is anything more than a RINO who would be more than happy to do everything the Democrats want, while talking a good conservative game…
I’m sorry, I’m not buying. Better an “honest” fascist than a fake patriot. I’d rather have someone in office I don’t feel bad about lynching when the time comes.
Apr 3, 2009 - 10:55 am 33. The Historian:NATIONAL SECURITY IS A MAJOR OBAMA WEAKNESS
Wimping out versus North Korea.
http://greensrealworld.blogspot.com/2009/04/wimping-out-vs-north-korea.html
Apr 3, 2009 - 10:58 am 34. Steve P.:JackT: “Quite frankly, there is no Republican in office that can challenge the intelligence, charm, and skill of our Prez. I am 100% sure he will be re-elected in 2012. I have never been so proud of our Prez than I am now. I wasn’t around for Kennedy so I don’t really know how to compare, but Obama has something special, I know it, the Repubs know it, the world knows it. God has truly blessed our nation by putting Obama at the helm.”
And all I can say is: What a relief it is to once again have a thinking, competent, and capable man as the president.
Apr 3, 2009 - 11:00 am 35. fireyourguns:Nice try JackT
Guess it depends on who’s doing the polling:
RCP Average 03/24 – 04/01 — “60.5″ 32.5 +28.0
FOX News 03/31 – 04/01 900 RV “58″ 32 +26
Gallup 03/30 – 04/01 1547 A “61″ 29 +32
Rasmussen Reports 03/30 – 04/01 1500 LV “56″ 44 +12
Quinnipiac 03/24 – 03/30 2326 RV “58″ 31 +27
USA Today/Gallup 03/27 – 03/29 1007 A “64″ 30 +34
ABC News/Wash Post 03/26 – 03/29 1000 A “66″ 29 +37
Diageo/Hotline 03/26 – 03/29 800 RV “63″ 31 +32
Democracy Corps (D) 03/25 – 03/29 1000 LV “58″ 34 +29
Rasmussen’s sample doesn’t seem to share your enthusiasm. Neither do I!
Apr 3, 2009 - 11:09 am 36. zanne:Steve P and Jack T. are two guys on the same payroll=Soros/ACORN/team Obama? Are you paid by the comment or the word? I am betting word.
Apr 3, 2009 - 11:18 am 37. fireyourguns:“And all I can say is: What a relief it is to once again have a thinking, competent, and capable man as the president.”
———————–
Would that be the same thinking, competent, and capable man that walks into windows?
Apr 3, 2009 - 11:20 am 38. Middleman:Or the one that just saddled this country with a ten trillion dollar debt!
Your idea of thought, competence, and capability is a world apart from mine, sonny!
Most of New York state outside the urban centers is Republican, and considering the bang up job the Democrat governors have been doing, some backlash was inevitable. I wouldn’t celebrate yet. Most of the country is still suffering from the Bush hangover.
Apr 3, 2009 - 11:34 am 39. Steve P.:fireyourguns: “Your idea of thought, competence, and capability is a world apart from mine, sonny!”
Obviously. Me, I’ll take the man that walks into windows any day of the week over the man who lied straight faced to the American people about WMDs in Iraq so he could rush our country to war.
Apr 3, 2009 - 11:38 am 40. Carbon:Obviously. Me, I’ll take the man that walks into windows any day of the week over the man who lied straight faced to the American people about WMDs in Iraq so he could rush our country to war.
And as for me, I would rather take Bush than some second-rate hack who lies straight faced to the American people about increasing the national debt to give money to the politically connected claiming that this is going to bring us prosperity.
But then again–maybe I’m wrong–maybe he is stupid enough to believe what he’s saying is true.
Peace, dude.
Apr 3, 2009 - 12:31 pm 41. AThinkingPerson:The door is wide open right now for ANY party to win in 2012. Obama is showboating overseas right now in front of the press but his own country is going to hell in a handbasket. Unless he changes the Constitution, foreigners can’t vote (not putting it past him to try and change it though.)
Anyone notice how his cronies are nosediving? Dodd is sure not enjoying his time in the Democratic limelight these days.
I say we just let Obama continue down the path he’s on. By the time 2012 arrives, the GOP will just have to show up. (I’m sure Obama’s teleprompter will have pooped out by then anyway right?)
Apr 3, 2009 - 12:51 pm 42. Dave:Really, sadly, it just depends on if the uninformed/misinformed that make up the vast majority of Obama voters wake up to the fact they have been duped and used. The MSM is doing everything they can including lie to support this guy, so I would say the chances of a more rational political landscape are not too good. Its a destructive cycle: the more Democrats govern, the worse it gets and the worse it gets, the more people look to Democrats for hand outs. Obama and the Dems are a disaster and it will probably get much worse before it gets better.
In the mean time, we will suffer malevolent people who bleat out the dishonest pap “Bush lied” everytime they are confronted with their own mistake.
Apr 3, 2009 - 12:55 pm 43. Samizdat:Hey Steve P,
Apr 3, 2009 - 12:58 pm 44. Steve P.:Can’t you come up with something better than that? After all, the Chinese, French and Russian’s thought he had WMD’s too.
I have some serious issues with Bush 43, especially related to his silly no child left behind program, his further socialisation of senior health care and his failure to rein in wasteful government spending. The fact that his intelligence, which was consistent with other nation’s assessments, turned out to be wrong does not amount to a lie.
Remember as well, that WMD’s formed only one of the reasons supporting the UN’s resolution’s authorizing action. Seems to me that President Clinton ordered Airforce and Navy to bomb Iraq due to it’s violation of UN resolutions.
Samizdat: “The fact that his intelligence, which was consistent with other nation’s assessments, turned out to be wrong does not amount to a lie.”
Nice try, but the truth is apparent to anyone who has paid attention that Bush was aggressively pushing for war and would only accept intelligence that supported his case, even when it came from dubious sources like “Curveball.” And even though there was plenty of contrary evidence and sources, he ignored them. Had he waited a couple of months, like some rational folks were suggesting, we would have found out that Saddam had no WMDs or operational connections to Al Qaeda. And thousands of American soldiers and Iraqis might still be alive.
Apr 3, 2009 - 1:56 pm 45. Ms. Attitude:Steve P. and JackT: Do you guys have a poster of Obama hanging over your bed? I bet you do, you sick little puppies!
Apr 3, 2009 - 2:00 pm 46. William:I wouldn’t count Murphy out until the votes from the Cemetery District are counted.
Apr 3, 2009 - 2:36 pm 47. one of my own:45 Ms Attitude . . . I have a poster of Chuck Norris over my bed. He’s giving anal poisoning to Sean Hannity. It’s Rush approved. Hope you approve, too.
Apr 3, 2009 - 2:43 pm 48. fireyourguns:44. Steve P.:
Samizdat: “The fact that his intelligence, which was consistent with other nation’s assessments, turned out to be wrong does not amount to a lie.”
Nice try, but the truth is apparent to anyone who has paid attention that Bush was aggressively pushing for war and would only accept intelligence that supported his case, even when it came from dubious sources like “Curveball.” And even though there was plenty of contrary evidence and sources, he ignored them. Had he waited a couple of months, like some rational folks were suggesting, we would have found out that Saddam had no WMDs or operational connections to Al Qaeda. And thousands of American soldiers and Iraqis might still be alive.
———————-
Why is it Steve P. that every single time a liberal types in “Bush!…War!” they, at the same time, fail to mention the well documented text/video of their own democratic leadership making the same exact claims about Saddam Hussein and WMD’s? Why is that, Steve?
Why were the democrats on the hill “for the war” Steve, before they were against it? Can you answer that, Steve?
Apr 3, 2009 - 3:00 pm 49. ic:It only shows ACORN hasn’t done its magic yet. ACORN will find votes in warehouses and garages. Overseas military votes will arrive about 30 minutes too late to be counted. Someone can throw a bunch of “votes” into the pool to be recounted. A judge would find it impossible to declare which votes were legit, which were not, ergo all votes must be counted. Who cares if the vote total is twice the number of residents in the district? NYT and the networks will acclaim the winner who won an unprecedented landslide in the recount, and ridicule the protesting Republican sore loser.
When there is a will, there is a way to keep a seat.
Apr 3, 2009 - 3:17 pm 50. Samizdat:Steve P,
Apr 3, 2009 - 4:11 pm 51. fireyourguns:Your argument back to me completely ignores the fact that Sadam’s other violations of UN resolutions were also precipitating factors in the authorizations.
Iraq is now showing the unmistakable characteristics of a legitmate functioning republic. It has held repeated elections that all factions save Al Queda now participate in. It is the only representative government in the Arab sphere. Its people view the government as legitimate. I guess you don’t value these developments, but I do.
Freely elected governments tend not to fight with one and other. They tend to engage in free market transactions that benefit sellers and purchasers. Their people are able to make better economic decisions that favor their families circumstances than people who live in non representative regimes. The Arab peoples are not able to redress grievances they may have with their rulers. It’s pretty obvious why their liable to express frustration violently.
You can hate President Bush all you want, thats fine. You can choose to ignore the positive benefits the Iraqi people have realized from liberation. The important thing to me is that they value what I have outlined above, they have fought and died for liberation. Their government is not perfect, it is corrupt and factionalized, and riven with inexperience. It will not look like our government; but it has germinated from a common seed. That is an accomplishment for all Arab peoples, given their political history.
Iraq no longer pays to have suicide bombers kill innocent Israeli citizens. It no longer threatens Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the other Arab states or for, that matter, Iran.
What ever your hatred for President Bush is I invite you to see the larger picture. By the way, continued success in Iraq is now dependent on President Obama’s continued execution of successful strategy. Based on his policy, I think he see’s that. He knows that if he trades political stability for vacumn induced instability, it will be he who bears that legacy, not President Bush.
47. one of my own:
45 Ms Attitude . . . I have a poster of Chuck Norris over my bed. He’s giving anal poisoning to Sean Hannity. It’s Rush approved. Hope you approve, too.
————-
Very intelligent! This post explains this:
Liberalism
Apr 3, 2009 - 4:29 pm 52. Ms. Attitude:lib·er·al·ism /ˈlɪbərəˌlɪzəm, ˈlɪbrə-/ Pronunciation Key – Show Spelled Pronunciation [lib-er-uh-liz-uhm, lib-ruh-]
–noun
1. The quality or state of being liberal, as in behavior or attitude.
2. A profound mental disorder of unknown etiology, characterized by a marked disassociation from objective reality. Its victims display an inability to grasp facts or understand even the most basic rational concepts. It is thought to be a disease of arrested intellectual development as many of Liberalisms victims display a childlike immaturity. Analytic and rational thought are impossible. Magical thinking and almost infantile fantasies based on unfulfilled emotional needs are substituted for adult reasoning.
Origin theories:
Liberalism is theorized by some to be the result of a as yet unknown virus, as it appears to spread through a population in geometric fashion. Others say that childhood exposure to neurotoxic poisons in the environment may be responsible. Evidence presented for this is that the more time a child (or adult) spends in government funded public education buildings the more likely it is they will contract liberalism and the more profound is the infection and subsequent severe cerebral atrophy. To date no chemical or substance has yet been isolated from these buildings that might cause the disease.
There is no known vaccine or cure, but it has been noted that individuals exposed to the realities that directly contradict their delusions sometimes show improvement. The longer their exposure to reality, the greater the curative effect seems to be.
A number scientific studies indicate that Liberalism has become so widespread that Western civilization may become extinct in its present form unless a cure can be found.
[Origin: 1810–20; liberal + -ism]
—Related forms
lib·er·al·ist, noun, adjective
lib·er·al·is·tic, adjective
47. one of my own: And I can tell that you are soooo jealous of Hannity every time you look at that poster! It’s okay, you’ll be alright because your beloved Obama is drilling all of us in the backside with his lies! Enjoy.
Apr 3, 2009 - 5:27 pm 53. CapitalistForChange:Are the cherries ripe already??…..Jen cherry picks a Fox poll (at least cite that Rasmussen, who is a legitimate GOP pollster!)…Ms Rubin references election results from November (was “Obama” on the ballot Wednesday?)..She goes on to cherry picks pundits (Stu Rothenberg’s been predicting the GOP “comeback” since Nov 5th)…and…VOILA!….This is a reforendum AGAINST the POTUS!…Well have no fear Jen. Your secret crush on Obama is not in danger of being obsolete…By the way, did Jennifer Rubin happen to mention that: 1. Nobody outside of his family even KNOWS the Dem candidate. 2. The R’s have a seventy thousand registered voter advantage in that district….
Apr 3, 2009 - 6:45 pm 54. MiamaMan:1. Войска ПВО:
You Bulgarian, bro? Zdrasti!
Apr 3, 2009 - 7:50 pm 55. WJA:Tom H 8.
Apr 3, 2009 - 8:34 pm 56. Weaver:One more thing when all of the wannabe Reagans can come togher and speak with one firm voice and put aside their petty differences, then the GOP might have a chance. But as long as they stay fractured, it won’t happen.
So what? If Tedisco wins in this republican district against a lesser known opponent, who cares? What is the value of this seat anyway? The real question is whether there will be a sore loser in this election who keeps seeking appeal.
Apr 3, 2009 - 8:58 pm 57. Tex Taylor:Patience, patience…
Mullah Obama’s nebulous message is wearing thin. Cult of personality only gets you so far before bread on the table becomes a little more important than an Obama bobble head and an autograph.
When America sees about 11% unemployment, or some American city gets dusted because of Pres_ent Obama’s gullibility, even the rubes will see through the paid Obama hacks and other Marxist media shills that like to post on this board.
Rubes won’t give a damn about some nebulous message of hope and change; Iraq will be an after thought and war which we won; Obama a fruitless goon with Clinton rejects running the show.
I sense a world class ass kicking coming in about 20 months. Until then, I suggest we hold our water and let the Obama parrots continue the spin. But let’s make sure these maggots stay on the defensive.
Pile on Obama in a “civilized” manner every chance you get.
Apr 3, 2009 - 9:08 pm 58. Jeff Sulman:Here you go Steve P. What do all these quotes have in common? They are all given by demos.
“Without question, we need to disarm Saddam Hussein. He is a brutal, murderous dictator, leading an oppressive regime … He presents a particularly grievous threat because he is so consistently prone to miscalculation … And now he is miscalculating America’s response to his continued deceit and his consistent grasp for weapons of mass destruction … So the threat of Saddam Hussein with weapons of mass destruction is real…”
- Sen. John F. Kerry (D, MA), Jan. 23. 2003 | Source
“I will be voting to give the President of the United States the authority to use force — if necessary — to disarm Saddam Hussein because I believe that a deadly arsenal of weapons of mass destruction in his hands is a real and grave threat to our security.”
- Sen. John F. Kerry (D, MA), Oct. 9, 2002 | Source
“One way or the other, we are determined to deny Iraq the capacity to develop weapons of mass destruction and the missiles to deliver them. That is our bottom line.”
- President Clinton, Feb. 4, 1998 | Source
“If Saddam rejects peace and we have to use force, our purpose is clear. We want to seriously diminish the threat posed by Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction program.”
- President Bill Clinton, Feb. 17, 1998 | Source
“We must stop Saddam from ever again jeopardizing the stability and security of his neighbors with weapons of mass destruction.”
- Madeline Albright, Feb 1, 1998 | Source
“He will use those weapons of mass destruction again, as he has ten times since 1983.”
- Sandy Berger, Clinton National Security Adviser, Feb, 18, 1998 | Source
“Saddam Hussein has been engaged in the development of weapons of mass destruction technology which is a threat to countries in the region and he has made a mockery of the weapons inspection process.”
- Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D, CA), Dec. 16, 1998 | Source
“Hussein has … chosen to spend his money on building weapons of mass destruction and palaces for his cronies.”
- Madeline Albright, Clinton Secretary of State, Nov. 10, 1999 | Source
“We know that he has stored secret supplies of biological and chemical weapons throughout his country.”
- Al Gore, Sept. 23, 2002 | Source
“Iraq’s search for weapons of mass destruction has proven impossible to deter and we should assume that it will continue for as long as Saddam is in power.”
- Al Gore, Sept. 23, 2002 | Source
“We have known for many years that Saddam Hussein is seeking and developing weapons of mass destruction.”
- Sen. Ted Kennedy (D, MA), Sept. 27, 2002 | Source
“In the four years since the inspectors left, intelligence reports show that Saddam Hussein has worked to rebuild his chemical and biological weapons stock, his missile delivery capability, and his nuclear program. He has also given aid, comfort, and sanctuary to terrorists, including al Qaeda members … It is clear, however, that if left unchecked, Saddam Hussein will continue to increase his capacity to wage biological and chemical warfare, and will keep trying to develop nuclear weapons.”
Apr 3, 2009 - 9:26 pm 59. Jeff Sulman:- Sen. Hillary Clinton (D, NY), Oct 10, 2002 | Source
50. good post Samizdat one point on the comment:
“Their government is not perfect, it is corrupt and factionalized, and riven with inexperience. It will not look like our government”
Sounds like our government from 1792-1812. Iraq will make it just like us. People who refer to the problems of the Iraq govt as evidence against the invasion are ignorant of American history.
Apr 3, 2009 - 9:31 pm 60. piscivorous:They need to do more than just “concentrate on a message of fiscal responsibility.”; they need to start practicing it.
Apr 3, 2009 - 10:14 pm 61. WJA:58 Jeff:
Apr 4, 2009 - 6:59 am 62. John:Great research. Pity MSM doesn’t do likewise.
I think the DEMs see this playing out a lot like the 30s and 40s. It will be Bushs fault no matter how bad it gets or long it takes or how much Obama puts us in the hole. Both Bush and Hoover left themselves open to it by their poor judgement under the pressure of recession, corporate excess and lurching left. Keep in mind who controls the media, government and education establishment to spin the information. Keep in mind who do most people still associate the depression with Hoover or FDR and how many times FDR got elected. There is really no incentive for the DEMs to want this to end from a political point of view.
To bad Bush did not start out by proposing to suspend income, capital gain and corporate taxes, going after corporate and government bad guys/policy or some combination instead of come up with massive goverment bail outs. If the debate would have been lets limit or get angry about the amount of tax cut rather than the amount of loan the Government should take out in our name, the results would have been way better for the economy and the REPs right now.
Apr 4, 2009 - 11:16 am 63. Samizdat:Jeff Sulman,
Apr 4, 2009 - 9:08 pm 64. Walworth:You are right. We had to endure the Articles of Confederacy and then find out what our Constitution meant. Evolution doesn’t occur overnight and it goes in fits and starts.
I am pretty certain that human governance works best when some form of legitimate sufferage is involved. Republics trend towards peace, while totalitarian governments gain sustenance from menacing others. It matters not if they are dictatorships or “communist” they feed on instability and conflict.
I have struggled for a long time to understand the attraction of socialism, nazism and communism. There are some very intelligent people out there who find the order that flows from these forms of government to be intellectually sound and beneficial, in spite of the evidence that repeatedly shows inevitable atrophy. I just don’t understand their motivation. There is bankruptcy in the belief that a demonstrably slow acting and tone deaf government will act more beneficialy for individuals than they can act for themselves, that somehow the state can forecast and react to circumstance better than they can. You have to be able to accept human under achievment if you really believe that Marx, Hitler and Clement Atlee were right. There is some serious intellectual poverty in this thinking. It is demonstrated by the “first amoung equals” treatment that the intelligencia and ruling elite carve out for themselves when they create utopia. It becomes inconvenient to them to live by the rules they create. Oh well!
Steve P.
I’m waiting for you to respond to #58, Jeff Sulman.
Apr 5, 2009 - 9:13 am 65. Derek:Obama got 51 percent of the vote in that district. Citing stats from what the democrat incumbent got is kind of nonsensical. Murphy is currently ahead by 83 votes anyways as of Monday April 6th. So perhaps this article title should be changed to “New Wasted Opportunities for the GOP in the age of Obama”
Apr 6, 2009 - 3:42 pm