New York’s Bizarro Congressional Election Results
The GOP wanted a harbinger of 2010; the Democrats hoped to keep the Obama magic going. Both were disappointed.
Should Scott Murphy hold on to his lead and carry the day it should not come as any great surprise to most observers. The momentum seemed to be running in his favor for the last three weeks at least, and many have overestimated the conservative nature of the district he seeks to serve. True, the 20th — containing largely rural farming areas such as Dutchess County — is quite conservative compared to Manhattan, but it is still in the Northeast, where Republicans have been hunted to near extinction since 2006. The GOP’s 70,000 advantage in voter registration in the district has been insufficient to deliver victories in the last two election cycles.
In the end, though, if Tedisco goes down to defeat, the blame will fall largely on his own campaign. When the candidates’ names were first announced, early local polling gave him as much as a twenty point advantage and even the first Siena polls had him up by double digits. This lead was squandered by a team which seemed to stumble and fumble their way through the process, leaving several opportunities on the table. Jim ran most of the race as if he still had an insurmountable lead, avoiding the dreaded label of “going negative” and running on the issues even as Murphy gained traction.
Tedisco also gave his opponent a huge gift early on when he refused to answer “the question” (as it became known in endless Murphy TV spots) as to whether or not he would have voted for the Obama stimulus package. This refusal, which went on for three painful weeks, became the focus of the campaign. It was only made worse when, asked by a reporter why he wouldn’t answer, the candidate defended himself thusly.
Mr. Tedisco said that if he answered the question, he would only encourage Mr. Murphy to pester him about other positions: “It won’t just be this, it’ll be, ‘How would you vote on the war in Iraq?‘ Those are hypothetical.”
That may well be the day the music died for the Tedisco lead in the polls.
In terms of missed opportunities, Jim never hit his opponent on guns — a sensitive topic in the largely agricultural communities of the region. Murphy was clearly obfuscating on the stump when it came to Second Amendment questions, but his past held a ticking bomb. He had been working with Mel Carnahan in Missouri while the governor was running a stealth campaign to torpedo Proposition B, which would have required officials to provide concealed carry permits to deserving citizens. With all the money poured into Tedisco’s race by both the state and national Republican parties, this never came up in the numerous ads they ran.
The general impression around the area was that Jim was simply reluctant to hit Murphy too fast or too hard and he wound up paying the price for it. Still, with the typical GOP advantage in military votes and ineffable trends of absentee ballots in general, Tedisco may take a seat in the People’s House. But if he does, it won’t be the resounding bellwether message that RNC Chairman Michael Steele had been hoping for.
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Jazz Shaw is a heretical, Northeastern former RINO and regular columnist at The Moderate Voice. He can be reached at jazzshaw@gmail.com.
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22 Comments
1. ashok:Thanks for sharing this! I hadn’t heard that Tedisco failed to position himself appropriately and so was on the receiving end when he could have easily been more aggressive.
Apr 2, 2009 - 12:53 am 2. David Thomson:Jim Tedisco is an awful candidate. He may even be worse than John McCain. Is the state of New York so liberal that the GOP establishment can’t do any better than this mediocrity? Tedisco may yet win this contest—but a center-right candidate would have easily defeated Scott Murphy. I am also once again cynically reminded why New York’s economy sucks so badly. The majority of its citizens are idiots. They deserve their grief. Those like myself who live in Texas must make sure their self-inflicted troubles don’t become our own.
Apr 2, 2009 - 4:16 am 3. Northern Light:I think Tedisco may pull this one out. The margin is so close that absentee ballots will probably decide it. If the military is still pro-Republican soldiers serving abroad might just save Tedisco’s (not to mention Michael Steele’s) bacon.
The big question is will this be decided before the Minnesota senate race. If everyone gets enough lawyers neither candidate will be get a chance to be seated. 2010 is just arouond the corner.
Apr 2, 2009 - 4:25 am 4. ajacksonian:Examining NY State election laws?
‘Abandon hope all ye who enter here’… that is the sign above the door, I believe. Byzantium could have learned a thing or two from NY State.
Apr 2, 2009 - 4:57 am 5. Craig:“Should the final numbers remain this close, provisions exist for challenges to the result…”
Heavens to Al Franken…say it ain’t so!
Apr 2, 2009 - 6:31 am 6. AThinkingPerson:Could the Obama magic be over? Was there really ever any magic or was it lack of education in the voting electorate? We got what we voted for. We knew he was a dishonest person before he took office. Why we’re surprised he backtracks and goes against promises and is trying to run American into the ground should not be news to anyone.
Now we’re truly left with HOPE-ing for a CHANGE.
Apr 2, 2009 - 7:06 am 7. MarkD:The entire might of the Democrat political machine was arrayed against a lackluster Republican candidate and the result was… A tie?
I suspect 2010 will look a lot like 1994, if the Republicans actually stand for anything. Otherwise, we won’t recognize this country by 2012.
Apr 2, 2009 - 7:24 am 8. Войска ПВО:..this election may be a metaphor for what’s wrong with both parties. Two candidates — both tepid — failed to draw voters resoundingly to their side despite the heavyweights from their party yearning for a showcase victory.
When, oh, when will the Republicans realize that the warmed-over vomit that they offer will not be enough to offset the excrement that the Democrats are foisting off on the American [Idol] public? Just give us one (one!) candidate with a set and a spine who will stand up for common sense and the common man and he or she will have legions behind him or her.
..but we go through this Kabuki where there’s always some flaw in the (R) guy to be exploited by the lapdog MSM.
Me? I’m clinging to my guns and religion until one comes along.
Apr 2, 2009 - 7:25 am 9. TOhio:This tells me what everyone has been saying all over the blogosphere for weeks now – Republicans need to fight!
Why in the world would the Republican Party run someone who is obviously a moderate and unwilling to be aggressive? Hopefully someone in party leadership will get the message from this race that in order to win and WIN BIG we need REAL CONSERVATIVES on the ballot who are willing to fight for the country as though their life depended on it – because it does!
The country’s future is at stake and we are running wimps. Lord help us all.
Apr 2, 2009 - 9:04 am 10. sharonsj:I think this shows we are fed up with both parties. Maybe we should follow Bernie Sanders’ lead and become Socialists? I was about to say that things can’t be worse than they are now, but I take that back. Things will only get worse because we have yet to see change we can believe in. So far it’s business as usual.
Apr 2, 2009 - 9:15 am 11. Pee Wee Herman, Community Organizer:Meanwhile in Minnesota…
Apr 2, 2009 - 10:36 am 12. Pops in Vienna:This race should have never been close. Dud spud or not, Tedisco should have won big due to a huge turn out of irate Republicans and Indies. I think the rage and despair about the current state of affairs is limited to the conservative blogosphere.
The tea parties, for the most part , have very low turn outs. If it wasn’t for talk radio you’d hear very few criticisms of the current president. Michael Stelle goes on TV and calls his own party Nazis. Sorry, this isn’t a winning combination.
First, get rid of the RNC Chairman and put in a fighter. Then recruit good candidates who have passion and know the issues. Articulate clear, conservative positions and consolidate the base. Reach out for 5% of the fence sitters and we’ll win everytime.
Apr 2, 2009 - 10:43 am 13. AThinkingPerson:Where’s ACORN and their illegal voting methods when you need them? I’m sure they’re loading up their buses full of homeless and heading to New York just in case there’s a call for a do-over.
Apr 2, 2009 - 11:49 am 14. Dave (the rational Dave):With a partisan political hack like Holder running the DOJ, I doubt that the Dems feel any reluctance to pulling out all the election fraud stops on this one. They have gotten too good at getting the right judge to put a finger on the scale. It happened in Washington state a few years ago, it’s happening in the Minnesota Senate Race and will probably happen again in this race.
Apr 2, 2009 - 12:55 pm 15. Kurt:Well, Pops, I’d say it’s a matter of perspective. From the pictures I’ve seen, the Tea Parties don’t have small turnouts. They might not be huge, but they’re definitely not small. Or to put it another way, the turnouts for leftist rallies (anti-war, anti-AIG, pro-”stimulus,” what have you) in most places is absolutely miniscule in comparison, but that doesn’t keep those rallies from being one of the leading stories on most evening newscasts.
Apr 2, 2009 - 2:41 pm 16. Chris:I think the race being even close for the Republican is a pretty big story. Gillibrand (Dem) won that district 52-38 in November. 50-50 is a HUGE shift. If Tedisco really did run a lousy campaign, then it’s all the more significant.
Apr 2, 2009 - 3:45 pm 17. Chris:Make that 62-38.
Apr 2, 2009 - 3:47 pm 18. Terry:Personally, I think the reason Tedisco and other Republicans don’t seem to hit on issues that should favor them is because the candidates themselves don’t favor those positions. Conservatives and libertarians have solid ideas for directing legislatures, but do not hold sufficient sway amongst Republicans. An important distinction is that while conservatives and libertarians are found in the Republican party, but not in the Democrat party, the GOP is a ‘right-leaning’ party only in comparison to the ‘left-leaning’ Democrat party. Republicans pick and choose from conservative/libertarian concepts to be elected. Paraphrasing Anne Coulter, Democrats and Republicans both run on conservative principles; Republicans sometimes disappoint their constituents, Democrats always do.
Apr 4, 2009 - 5:18 am 19. William:Have the votes from the Cemetery District been counted yet?
Apr 4, 2009 - 7:44 am 20. whyyeseyec:The recount(s) will go on and on and on until the dem candidate wins.
It seems as if every election everywhere in the country is split 50-50. Co-ink-e-dink or not?
Apr 4, 2009 - 11:56 am 21. Chris:Are you kidding me? On the biggest issue dividing the parties, the $800 billion dollar stimulus bill – a bill opposed by every Republican member of the House and nearly every Republican member of the Senate – this man couldn’t make up his mind how he would vote?? I think he deserves to lose. If I were a Republican in his district, I honestly don’t know if I would have gone out on election day to vote for him, I would have been so upset. This is no big loss for Republicans if this man doesn’t prevail.
Okay, I get it, the northeast is pretty liberal. I used to live there. So you have to be pro-choice, pro-federal funding of stem cell research and such. But he doesn’t have the intestinal fortitude or the brains to explain to his constituents why this pork-laden budget buster should be opposed? Loser. Bad loser.
Apr 4, 2009 - 3:08 pm 22. Chris:Okay, I just looked up the bio’s of the two candidates in the race. I would say Tedisco’s is unimpressive. An expert in special ed. An athletic director of a high school. Union College degrees. The CV doesn’t mean everything, of course. (E.g., Ronald Reagan.)
Compare Murphy: Harvard, assistant to a governor, principal in a large investment firm. It looks like Dems recruited a quality candidate and Steele just got the one most available. I am not impressed with Steele.
Apr 4, 2009 - 3:22 pm