No Awakening in the Cards For Pakistan
Why an Iraqi-style Awakening movement in Pakistan is destined to fail.
In an effort to answer that question, Pajamas Media interviewed Bill Roggio, managing editor of the Long War Journal, a news resource dedicated exclusively to news and analysis of the War on Terror. In October 2007, Roggio wrote “Crunch Time in Pakistan” for Pajamas Media, arguing that only a concerted effort led by the Pakistani government could dislodge the Taliban and al-Qaeda in the tribal regions of Pakistan. A year later, he has also covered the recent push to engage the lashkars against the Taliban.
Pajamas Media (PJM): First, reading your article, it seems that unless the Pakistani government can find a way to coordinate the local lashkars into a larger, more regional force with some sort of unifying command, then the Taliban can simply choose to mass forces at the times and places of their choosing to overwhelm lashkars one by one. Is that a correct reading?
Roggio: Correct. I would also add that without the Pakistani military to provide backup (think QRF) these individual tribes and their lashkars will be easy prey. The lashkars will not be mobilized forever, by the way, these are temporary militias.
PJM: Does that indicate that those who have written articles trying to equate the recent focus on lashkars in Pakistan with the Sunni Awakening movements in Iraq are just not aware of the differences between the cultures in these two countries? For example, the Sunni tribes in Iraq were willing to work with other Sunni tribes, and U.S. and Iraqi security forces. We’re not seeing any evidence of that in Pakistan, are we?
Roggio: I agree. I would add the Taliban have solid support among many of the tribes. The dynamics are very different between the two countries. In Iraq, AQI [al-Qaeda in Iraq] was foreign. In Pakistan, AQ and the Taliban were born in the tribal areas.
PJM: Do you think it is possible that the ISI [Inter-Services Intelligence, Pakistan's premier intelligence agency] may be backing the lashkars in public, knowing they will fail, while still providing significant and real backing for the Taliban behind the scenes?
Roggio: Absolutely. Nothing that happens with the ISI’s involvement can be trusted at this point in time. And when the Taliban decides to take revenge, the odds are good the ISI will provide the intel on who in the tribes to target.
PJM: Can the lashkars have a lasting effect without more fully integrating among themselves and working with the Pakistani military?
Roggio: I agree. The Awakening survived al-Qaeda’s onslaught because it worked closely with the U.S. and Iraqi security forces. The Pakistani tribes do not appear to be interested in the Pak Army maintaining a presence in their tribal areas.
***
While the Pakistani government would like to imagine that an al-Anbar-type Awakening movement might help create a turning point in the tribal regions along the Afghan border, the reality is that they have little chance of succeeding without far more support than the population has any interest in providing.
The Pakistani government is losing the war against the Taliban in the tribal regions. A suicide bomber just killed 50 militiamen forming up for an assault, and other tribesmen have been beheaded. It is only a matter of time before a heavily-armed Taliban decides to make an example of a lashkars and the tribal villages that support it.
Whether the Pakistani government can maintain control of their country if the lashkars withdraw from the fight remains to be seen.
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6 Comments
1. No Awakening in the Cards For Pakistan | PoliticsMuch.com:[...] orginally posted at PajamasMedia.com. We claim no responsibility for this content. Please click on the link above to read and comment on [...]
Oct 15, 2008 - 6:27 am 2. ecrab:In my humble opinion, the tribes have very little to gain from their association with the Pakistani military. With their cooperation, comes meddling in their local affairs along with decreased power. In a way it reminds me of our local governments use of annexation with delayed increase in services. I think a better way and one that may not be possible, is to look at the way the Roman’s gained influence in their conquered lands. As they came into an area, a high priority was to improve the roads. This, of course, enabled quicker reaction for their forces but also allowed easier access for trade and commerce. Unless the Pakistani government is determined to open those local areas and keep them open the Taliban problem will only fester like a boil in their side.
Oct 15, 2008 - 8:18 am 3. Patterico’s Pontifications » The Start of a Tribal Area Awakening? (Updated):[...] Bill Roggio thinks it won’t work because the lashkars don’t have sufficient back-up from the [...]
Oct 15, 2008 - 11:50 am 4. Ex-fetus:It’s too early. The Iraqi “awakening” worked because the tribes were tired of AQ bleeding them out. In Pakistan, the tribes haven’t bled enough yet. I expect the Terrs to get the government before the government gets them.
Oct 15, 2008 - 3:55 pm 5. JFM:The current Paki Bozo-in-chief hasn’t a clue. No idea where to even look for one.
The fundamental problem is that Pakistan has a keen interest in fundamentalism. Without it, without its population being rabidly militant Muslims it would quickly fall apart.
Pakistan is
1) An hetrogenous state whose components have little love lost for one another.
2) A thugocracy, where a mostly punjabi elite, lives in style by exploiting the other region.
And how they get away with it? You guessed it, by radicalizing their population so the Islam cement is stronger than Pakistan’s naturally centrifugal forces. By inventing plots of Pakistan conquest by teh infidels so the Baloch or Sindhs don’t pay attention where the money is going.
3) Pakistan’s claim to teh NWFP is tenuous at best. Not only practically but legally: their cession to the British Empire was temporary and the treaty has expired. Also their inhabitants are emparented with Afghans and feel themseleves superior to Punjabis. If Afghanistan were a half successful state they would ask the NWFP joining Afgahnistan again. By keeping Afghanistan in misery Pakistan prevents secession from its Pashtoon populations.
4) Pakistan dreams of conquering India. That requires not only the manpower and resources of the NWFP but also greater strategic depth: in other words either conquering Afganistan (hard), installing a puppet government in it or one who is so obsessed with Islam that in a conflict with India will put its army, resources and territory at Pakistan’s service. That is why ISI supported the Taliban and, inside the Taliban those who were completely indifferent to national questions and saw Afghanistan merely as a province of a (future) global califat.
Oct 16, 2008 - 11:58 am 6. Don Vandervelde:The “tribes” will happily join whoever is winning at the time, then turn on them later to keep their independence from the Paks. It’s their tradition. The tribal areas are not actually a part of Pakistan. the whole of Afghanistan, itself, was taken from the terrorists in a matter of months by a few special ops troops calling down unlimited quantites of bombs with exquisite precision, with the help of the Northern Alliance and many local chiefs. This doctrine should be used to pacify the tribal areas, with the cooperation of the Afghans and possibly the Indians, if not the Paks. Then extended negotiations can proceed by all parties to make the tribal areas truly sovereign Pak territory.
Oct 20, 2008 - 9:05 pm