North Korea’s Body Snatchers
Is Kim Jong Il taking hostages to get what he wants from the international community?
Unfortunately, neither Washington nor Seoul is getting anywhere at this moment. Mr. Yu, in particular, is in an unenviable position. South Korea has been calling for dialogue with its northern twin, but Pyongyang is being especially stubborn. The two Koreas recently spent 11 hours arranging the first official talks in more than a year, but, when they finally met last month, the session lasted all of 22 minutes. The breakdown was attributed in part to disagreements over the unfortunate Mr. Yu. Since then, Pyongyang has broken its agreements concerning Kaesong and demanded more money, probably to make up for the loss of aid from South Korea and other international donors.
The prospect for the release of Ling and Lee appears brighter. Some have argued that the North is using their detention to trigger direct dialogue with the United States. The theory is that Pyongyang, due to considerations of face, cannot initiate discussions with Washington. Yet the confinement of Ling and Lee provides an opportunity for the two capitals to talk. In fact, that is what they are now doing in back-channel negotiations, some involving what has become known as the “New York Connection.” Optimists argue that behind-the-scenes communications can be broadened to discussions to restart the now-moribund six-party disarmament talks hosted by Beijing. From there, some contend, it is possible to reach a “grand bargain” and an enduring peace in North Asia.
Is there any evidence that the two reporters will be released soon? Secretary of State Clinton has been making surprisingly upbeat statements about the Ling-Lee matter, saying she welcomed the announcement of their trial date and looked forward to a quick conclusion to legal proceedings.
And can the freeing of Ling and Lee lead to peace on the Korean peninsula? Anything is possible, but it is more likely that there will be less favorable outcomes. After all, Washington has been engaging in feckless diplomacy since 2003 to no good result. Since the beginning of the six-party talks in August of that year, North Korea has stalled, lied, and tested two long-range missiles and one small nuclear device.
As well as nabbed foreigners. Fortunately, in this period Pyongyang’s economy has stalled. Kim’s recent moves to increase his share of cash from Kaesong — shall we call it extortion? — betray a hint of desperation. If he is in fact desperate, then it would be time to take advantage of his plight by getting Seoul to abandon Kaesong, thereby cutting off an important source of support for his regime. South Korea has said it wants talks on Kaesong, but it has also stated it will not rule out abandoning the zone, once hailed as a model of cooperation between the two Korean states.
Washington’s generous initiatives, made at Beijing’s urging, have not worked. In fact, they have undercut our own objectives. First, our diplomacy has fractured the critical alliance with Japan because Tokyo believes — correctly — that we have not supported its efforts to get a full accounting from Pyongyang on the abductee matter. Second, our commitment to unproductive talks has given the North the one thing it needed most to become a nuclear weapons state: time.
It’s high time we stopped listening to North Korea’s only formal ally — China — and started acting in our own interests, don’t you think? Kim, unfortunately, has interpreted our recent policies as signs of weakness. If we want to free Yu, Ling, and Lee — and avoid future kidnappings — we need to change course and start acting like a superpower again. Kim is a thug, and the only thing he understands is strength. You don’t see him kidnapping Chinese and Russian nationals, after all.
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Gordon G. Chang is the author of Nuclear Showdown: North Korea Takes On the World and The Coming Collapse of China.
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11 Comments
1. what is occupation:this is not news…
the North Koreans, the iranians, the syrians, the palestinians all are body snatchers and how does the world react?
they give them billions in appeasement aid…
if the world would respond by these kidnappers with cutting off all funds, landing rights and food aid REGARDLESS of consequences until these people have been released it would cause these criminals to stop their behavior..
but they wont…
so dont expect a different behavior from these thugs…
they murder, kidnap and cause chaos…
there is only one solution….
take them out…
May 20, 2009 - 4:25 am 2. Vinny Vidivici:What is . . .
Sadly, decades of weak-kneed waffling by the West’s striped-trouser set will lead us, eventually, to your option. Almost passive/agressive we are. To mix metaphors, we allow gangrene to progress for fear of cutting off the toe, then the ankle, until finally . . . We say ‘never again’ do we don’t really mean it.
And the current batch blinkered diplomats, steeped in bogus tranzi-progressive conflict resolution theories are only making matters worse, or threaten to (see Sri Lanka). I’ll note that the only two wars ‘authorized’ by the UN ‘ended’ in debilitating stalemates characterized by oceans of human misery and are, in many respects, still underway. Sherman’s approach was far more humane.
May 20, 2009 - 6:35 am 3. LiberateLaura:Can you provide more details on back channel known as “New York Connection.” What is its origin, current players?
May 20, 2009 - 9:22 am 4. Ivanna Tinkle:Mr. Chang: This is the sentence you ended your piece with.
May 20, 2009 - 12:39 pm 5. Gordon Chang:“we need to change course and start acting like a superpower again. Kim is a thug, and the only thing he understands is strength. You don’t see him kidnapping Chinese and Russian nationals, after all.”
I agree with you 100 percent on this but unfortunately Obambi sees the role of the United States somewhat differently. He doesn’t want the United States to be a superpower and has recently gone around the globe apologizing for past American expressions of their power. And he’s about to do it again in Egypt. Mr. Obambi seems to forget all about unintended consequences. If he acts weak and indecisive the leaders of the worlds countries who want to see us in decline will take note of that and act accordingly. Why should Pyongyang be afraid of the United States when they know they can bully and browbeat a cowardly President and get away with it.
what is occupation, I agree that the “billions in appeasement aid” has got to stop. You have to wonder how we forgot every important lesson of the 20th century.
May 20, 2009 - 6:51 pm 6. Gordon Chang:Vinny Vidivici, as we in this forum know, “there is no substitute for victory.” Of course, many in Washington are too smart to realize this.
May 20, 2009 - 6:53 pm 7. Gordon Chang:LiberateLaura, thanks for the question.
I date the beginning of the “New York Channel” to June 1993, when the State Department’s Kenneth Quinones met with North Korean diplomats to discuss Pyongyang’s announced withdrawal from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.
Since then, there have been many more informal discussions between American and North Korean diplomats. Usually, Pyongyang is represented by its New York-based U.N. diplomats. Our side is sometimes represented by senior Washington-based diplomats and sometimes by lower-level staff assigned to U.N. duty.
May 20, 2009 - 7:00 pm 8. Gordon Chang:Ivanna Tinkle, yes. It is surprising how Washington doesn’t know the basics.
Thanks for your great comments.
May 20, 2009 - 7:02 pm 9. scott:Japan better shed its anti-military policy like yesterday. They sure as hell won’t get any help from comrade Zero.
May 20, 2009 - 7:59 pm 10. Gordon Chang:scott, Japan is in North Korea’s crosshairs, and they know that in Tokyo. That’s why the Japanese have a better North Korea policy than we do.
We have a lot to learn from the Japanese when it comes to dealing with Kim Jong Il.
May 21, 2009 - 4:37 am 11. Alex:They crossed into North Korea…which was really stupid. Local Chinese do not mess around near that River, it is heavily guarded by NKoreans. The river was low, the girls thought it might be a good picture to get closer, and crossed into NKorea.
Maybe next time listen to locals telling you not to go near the border.
May 22, 2009 - 1:40 am