Pajamas Media

49 Comments

1. JR Dogman:

I wouldn’t bet on it — not with Obama at the helm.

Mar 28, 2009 - 12:56 am 2. JR Dogman:

Oops — I was referring to “If the United States were to abandon the six-party process, it would presumably terminate the assistance it has been providing for denuclearization.”

Obama will not stop aid under any circumstances. They’re not only getting ready to let Chinese Muslim terrorists loose in the US, they’re going to put them on welfare. It’s completely crazy, that it’s crazy isn’t debatable — that is, no one could possibly justify or defend doing it — yet it appears that it will happen all the same.

North Korea will do whatever it wants to do, and Obama will do nothing. It’s not good, but that’s just how it is.

Mar 28, 2009 - 1:00 am 3. Tofuzi:

United States has no need to get involved. Japan has its own missles aimed at North Korea, they can take out the North Korean sattlite if they want to.

Mar 28, 2009 - 1:02 am 4. Gordon Chang:

JR Dogman, thanks for the comment. This will be Obama’s first foreign policy crisis if you don’t count the Victorious-Impeccable incidents. We will learn much from how he handles Kim.

Mar 28, 2009 - 6:45 am 5. Gordon Chang:

Tofuzi, we have an obligation to defend our allies, South Korea and Japan. So, yes, as the last guarantor of the international system, we have to get involved.

Mar 28, 2009 - 6:46 am 6. David Thomson:

“I wouldn’t bet on it — not with Obama at the helm.”

That’s exactly how I see it. The foolish obsession with “soft policies” dominate our academic and cultural institutions. On top of that, we are supposedly a bunch of racist imperialists who have crapped on the dark skinned people of the world. I’m sorry but the appeasers are in the driver’s seat. We are in very serious danger.

“United States has no need to get involved.”

This is an utterly absurd position. If North Korea can indeed bomb Alaska—then isolationism is outright crazy. The United States regrettably has a horrible history of waiting until matters get out of control. Polling data clearly in 1937 clearly showed that roughly 70% of all Americans thought that WWII was inevitable. And yet, we did virtually nothing when it was still relatively easy to neutralize Adolph Hitler and the AXIS powers. May God help us. We seem to prefer ignoring the harsh lessons of history.

Mar 28, 2009 - 6:46 am 7. Gordon Chang:

David Thompson, roger that on Americans waiting too long to deal with real threats. Thanks for explaining 1937.

Mar 28, 2009 - 8:33 am 8. David Thomson:

“Thanks for explaining 1937.”

Don’t thank me. Th credit goes to the late John P. Diggins in his Mussolini And Fascism: The View from America. This is what the authors says on page 324:

“In the summer of 1937, 73 percent of all Americans believed there would be another world war, and 30 percent placed responsibility for starting it on Germany, 27 percent on Italy, 19 percent on Japan, 11 percent on Russia, and 13 percent on other countries.”

Mar 28, 2009 - 9:05 am 9. LSUfan:

Incidentally, it is very bad news if the NKs have in fact perfected a multi-stage rocket capable of reaching Hawaii. All indications are that Iran bankrolls their program and they will buy that capability from North Korea if they don’t already have it.

It’s 4500 miles from Pyongyang to Honolulu.

It’s only 2750 miles from Tehran to London…DO THE MATH…it’s 6,135 miles from Tehran to New York…

Mar 28, 2009 - 9:54 am 10. Delia:

If the missile is “Made In Korea”… No worries.

Mar 28, 2009 - 10:36 am 11. RAH:

No the world will continue to keep its head in a hole ignoring NK belligerance. Japan on the otherhand has launched missile destroyers to sea.

Mar 28, 2009 - 11:08 am 12. Gordon Chang:

LSUfan, thanks for the mileage report. Unfotunately, these important details escape Washington.

Mar 28, 2009 - 11:17 am 13. PatriotUSA:

LSUfan wrote:
Incidentally, it is very bad news if the NKs have in fact perfected a multi-stage rocket capable of reaching Hawaii. All indications are that Iran bankrolls their program and they will buy that capability from North Korea if they don’t already have it.

Excellent points and we cannot afford to abandon Japan whether they can defend themselves or not. This is not Obuma’s first foreign crisis. He and his administration have created several and the MSM has chosen, as ususal to play them down. Can’t have stains or blights on the chosen one’s coat now, can we?
Iran, and Syria are foerign policy problems that Obuma has created by changing how we plan to deal with them. Centra, South America and Mexico, Russia are now greater and more urgent problems since Obuma slimed into power. Most important details escape this administration. They are blind, dumb and ignorant both at home and in foreign policy. North Korea should have been taken down long ago.

Mar 28, 2009 - 12:54 pm 14. Northern Light:

Hi Gordon,

I thought the North Koreans blew their nuclear reactor up. What happened? Did the North Koreans fail to destroy their reactor like they have failed at everything else?

Failure is a big feature of N. Korea’s attempt to be a player in the MAD Club. Their missles fail, their a-bomb test failed too. I think I have a better chance of developing a nuclear weapon and a missle than they do. Be very afraid, I only live 50 miles from the US border!

I wouldn’t bet a nickle on this working. If they are trying to put a satilite in orbit they will fail. If they are really building an ICBM, it will fail.

Of course, if they had a missle and a warhead it wouldn’t help. The US has spent untold billions of dollars on a defense system to knock North Korea’s missles out of the sky.

The only reason you are worried is that you think North Korea’s missle is superior to US SDI.

Try having some confidence in the USA rather than constantly expecting Communism to triumph. Or do you believe in the superiority of the Communist system. North Korea is being run by the idiot son of a former dictator. The United States got rid of their idiot son months ago.

Mar 28, 2009 - 2:27 pm 15. JD:

With President Obama in office, the US will take no unilateral action.

And the Democrats’ preference for working through the UN means that there will be no tangible multilateral action, either.

So, we will again bribe North Korea into better behavior, which everyone knows the DPRK will not adhere to:

http://trackacrat.com/2009/03/26/bark-worse-than-bite/

Mar 28, 2009 - 3:24 pm 16. jensad:

So what if North K launches their missle? What will be done? More hand wringing, more talk, more fear? Hey tht old a## will be dead soon, and there may be an unexpected new leader which may bring change.

Unless we intend to start another conflict, all we can do is talk and pray and maybe use our missle defense that WORKS!!!!!

jensad

Mar 28, 2009 - 7:22 pm 17. AThinkingPerson:

14 Northern Light….You say the US got rid of it’s idiot son months ago so no worries? Put down your crack pipe friend. Apparently you haven’t been following reports of our great leader who has now been shown to be totally inept without his teleprompter. Comforting eh? I’d much rather have a President who’s actually packing a set. Oh the good ole days….

Mar 28, 2009 - 8:00 pm 18. Angry White Dude:

Of course Obama will do nothing. Just like W and Clinton did nothing either. They just keep letting the little goofball run his mouth and rattle his swords. Nothing but bluster. If he launches, so what? He’s never going to attack anyone. Although, it would be fun to watch him finally get what’s coming to him. Same with Iran.

AWD

Mar 28, 2009 - 8:35 pm 19. Pat J:

Not that I want to wish ill on anyone, but I would love to see the reaction if this missile or satellite or whatever it is goes off target and accidently explodes and crashes in a Chinese population center.

It would be interesting to see how fast the Chinese change their tones about their comrades.

Mar 28, 2009 - 9:32 pm 20. Breaking News:

Breaking:

North Korea may also launch midrange missile:

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE52S03D20090329

Iranian missile experts in NKorea for launch:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iJHPoEJN1jLhO9owifTNk3Wd7lgg

Mar 28, 2009 - 11:00 pm 21. PatriotUSA:

AThinkingPerson wrote:
I’d much rather have a President who’s actually packing a set. Oh the good ole days….

It will be a few years before there is someone back in the White House packing a set of huevos, but that will happen. Typical demosocialistacrat cowardly behavior, ohhhh I will take to United nations of islam. The corrupt organization being made to cower to islam through the actions of the OIC. Yeah, Obuma, that will show those North Korean commie crackpots!

The new “idiot son” is making the old one, Bush look like a genius. While I did not support Bush in everything he did I would rather have a President with moxi and some balls than a neutered, castrated Obuma and his pathetic band of losers in his cabinet.

Mar 28, 2009 - 11:23 pm 22. Gordon Chang:

PatriotUSA, you wrote: “North Korea should have been taken down long ago.” Yes, and failure to do so is one of the greatest failings of American foreign policy since the end of the Second World War. This is a bipartisan failure, and it will undoubtedly lead to tragedy of one sort or another.

Mar 29, 2009 - 9:39 am 23. Gordon Chang:

Northern Light, many thanks for the interesting points. The North Koreans blew up their cooling tower, not their reactor.

On your missile-defense point, I think most people are concerned that it is not reliable, despite what Admiral Keating said a few days ago.

In general, I am confident that all hardline regimes will fail. Yet they can do a lot of damage in the interim, especially North Korea, which has China’s support.

Mar 29, 2009 - 9:43 am 24. Gordon Chang:

Delia, I hope you’re right, but even unsuccessful tests advance a weapons program.

I don’t think this one will unsuccessful. And remember how much the North Koreans surpised us with the 1998 test.

Mar 29, 2009 - 9:47 am 25. Gordon Chang:

RAH, the world will forget unless we keep discussing the issue. I appreciate your comment, and hope you raise North Korea here and in other forums.

Mar 29, 2009 - 9:48 am 26. Gordon Chang:

JD, I think the Obama administration is inclined to do nothing. That’s why we need to make North Korea an issue. Keep at it, please.

Mar 29, 2009 - 9:50 am 27. Gordon Chang:

jensad, I don’t think we can wait Kims out. That’s what we have been doing since the end of the Korean War, and history says our policies have not been working. It’s time for pressure to change the reality on the ground.

Mar 29, 2009 - 9:51 am 28. Gordon Chang:

Angry White Dude, North Korea can destablize the international system without attacking anyone. Our failure to deal with Pyongyang is giving the Iranians a big green light. You can figure out what that means.

Mar 29, 2009 - 9:54 am 29. Gordon Chang:

Pat J, yes, missiles that go east and south can also be pointed north and west. Someday they will be aimed at the Chinese, and the Chinese will have no one else to blame.

Mar 29, 2009 - 9:56 am 30. Gordon Chang:

Breaking News, thanks for the links. The one about the Iranians is especially important.

Mar 29, 2009 - 9:57 am 31. Breaking News:

Cheers, Gordon.

And now the response…

Gates: U.S. Not Prepared to Respond to North Korea Missile Launch:

Appearing on “FOX News Sunday,” Gates said North Korea “probably will” fire the missile, prompting host Chris Wallace to ask: “And there’s nothing we can do about it?”

“No,” Gates answered, adding, “I would say we’re not prepared to do anything about it.”

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/first100days/2009/03/29/gates-prepared-respond-north-korea-missile-launch/

Embarrassing.

Mar 29, 2009 - 11:51 am 32. Libertyship46:

Both South Korea and Japan are militarily capable to contain North Korea, especially if you throw in American air support into the mix. We should just treat every provocative action that North Korea takes with a yawn. Japan has very capable anti-missile capabilities (purchased from the United States) and South Korea and a very large Army and Navy that can surely hold its own against the North Koreans. So why should the United States always threaten some sort of “retaliation” whenever the North Koreans do something provocative? North Korea reminds me of a little child. It always has to kick and scream and create a scene in order to prove that it’s still deserving of attention. Well, I think it’s about time we start ignoring North Korea and force our allies to shoulder the bulk of the cost of containing these insane people. Unless you’re willing to invade North Korea and oust the current regime (an option I’m sure no sane American wants to even contemplate), there isn’t a hell of a lot we can do if North Korea fires a missile short of all-out war. The only thing we can do is give our allies in the area (like South Korea and Japan) the weapons and the electronic tools to shoot down any missiles that fly over their territory. If they choose to do that and risk a war, swell. Tokyo and Seoul are a lot closer to Pyongyang than San Francisco or Honolulu. If for any reason this rocket flies over American territory, then we also have the option to shoot it down. But there is no need for an all-or-nothing war with the North Koreans. They can be contained and warned that if they take any actions that harm American citizens then they will suffer the crushing consequences. But for the United States to go into a panic whenever the North Koreans act crazy is just silly. Lets grow up a bit and not be terrified of every tin-pot dictator in the world, especially when they have really bad hair.

Mar 29, 2009 - 1:01 pm 33. Gordon Chang:

Breaking News, thanks for the report on Gates. Gates was wrong. We could destroy the missile on the pad, and we have a good reason to do so: North Korea is launching over Japanese territory, thereby creating a risk of debris falling on Japan. We would never allow a country to launch across American territory. No nation except North Korea launches across the territory of another.

Mar 29, 2009 - 1:46 pm 34. Breaking News:

“We would never allow a country to launch across American territory. No nation except North Korea launches across the territory of another.”

That’s a brilliant point, Gordon. Gates’ response — about the lack of U.S. response — was laughable.

At least four more years of this, too. I shudder to think.

Mar 29, 2009 - 3:30 pm 35. Breaking News:

“Well, I think it’s about time we start ignoring North Korea…”

Not while they’re palling around with a soon-to-be nuclear-armed theocracy.

Mar 29, 2009 - 3:46 pm 36. dan:

I think the problem is not the possible Korean response to our or Japan’s destroying their missile on the pad: the problem is that our security institutions are trying to figure out how to contain – or how to appear to be containing – the Sino-Russian offensive throughout the world, of which North Korean aggression is just one manifestation. When states which ought to be concern first and foremost about their own survival, irrespective of foreign enemies, are provoking crises with the well-established powers of the Anglosphere and their reluctant allies, it is obvious that something deeper and as yet unspoken is occurring that deeply disturbs the establishment. Just todat The Times reports that British intelligence chiefs believe China probably has the power to cripple Britain via cyber attack. It seems likely to me – a nobody – that China and Russia hold hostage enough of the map that it would be within their power to cause multiple simultaneous crises which the USA and Britain, among others, would badly damage themselves in trying to contain or resolve. This is only one of the reasons I believe Russia and China combined or alone ultimately are responsible for 9/11 and the ridiculous result pitting the postmodern, post-Cold War world against the barbarians of the Hindu Kush. It is absolutely absurd.

First, we were softened up politically (BDS). Next, we have been dragged into the center of the South Asian maelstrom. Finally, we have prevailed in Iraq, but at such a cost that we have a Leninist – who may not even know he’s a Leninist – in the Oval Office, an asset of immeasurable strategic (or at least tactical) importance for the Russo-Chinese offensive to achieve its major international restructuring without firing any (or many) shots. It wil be interesting what, if anything, comes out of their current offensive on the reserve currency.

Anyway, it probably is, unfortunately, the best policy not to shoot down the Korean missile *unless* we can be absolutely *certain* that we can shoot it down – preferrably over international waters. Gates is right: with O in office, we realy are not in a position to respond – and then follow up. On the up side, it is also interesting that France is formally re-joining NATO. Gee, I wonder why that is?

Mar 29, 2009 - 6:37 pm 37. Joshua:

The Chinese, of course, say they have no control over their “stubborn” comrades across the border, even though they supply about 90 percent of the North’s oil, 80 percent of its consumer goods, and 45 percent of its food, much as aid or on concessionary terms.

All that aid has little if anything to do with keeping a lid on NK’s nuclear ambitions. NK is for all intents and purposes a zombie state; by all accounts it would swiftly collapse of its own sheer dead weight, if not for all that aid. Yet China, Russia, and even SK all have a vested interest in keeping the NK zombie state, well, undead: None of these other nations want to have to deal with the the flood of tens of millions of NK refugees across their borders that would likely result. As long as, and to the degree that the fear of this scenario drives its neighbors’ stance toward NK, NK actually already has those countries by the balls, with or without a functioning nuclear arsenal.

Mar 29, 2009 - 9:21 pm 38. Michael Lonie:

Perhaps what Gates meant by saying that we were not prepared to do anything is that the political will to do something does not exist. That is different from saying that the technical capability does not exist. If Japan has the latter so do we, since they got it from us.

Given its geographical position NorK can not test a missile or launch a satellite without firng it over some other country. Destroying it would be a gratutitooous act of war. If the NorK government were not such a bunch of lunatics suffering from trerminal cranial rectal impaction they might have found a way of pursuing their ’space program’ without causing so much anxiety. As it is you can hardly blame the Japanese for worrying about it.

I think the Chinese are being rather short sighted about this. One day NorK will realize that the game is up. At that time they will be tempted to attack ROK in the hopes of stealing enough wealth there to keep them going a few more years. That will result in a tremendous war in Korea. China is lkely to get dragged in again, and this time could they be sure which side? Perhaps that is what they want, to take over Korea in the course of a war started by their client state. It’s a damnfool idea if so.

Ther are no good answers about NorK, as with so many international flashpoints. If China and ROK would cooperate I think Nork might be brought down before they are ready to start that war I mentioned. Now China throws back all the refugees they catch. If instead we supported them in refugee camps and quickly moved them to ROK (so they’d be out of China and the latter not have to pay for them) we might well be able to largely depopulate NorK, to the point where the place just collapsed, before the Communists there could stop it. We’d have to pony up for the camps and naval escorts to ROK, but that would be cheaper than a war. ROK would have to integrate the refugees, and they are not willing to do so. China would have to agree, and I think China would not be willing to do so. But a competent Administration and State Department might peruade them. After collapse ROK could reunify the peninsula. To sweeten that for the Chinese we could agree that our forces would leave Korea after reunification. After all, their job would be done.

But here is another point. Way back in 1951 Douglas MacArthur said “In war there is no substitute for victory.” We settled for stalemate in Korea instead of fighting for the reunification of the peninsula. That would have been hideously costly, but if we had we would not now be discussing what to do about a nuke-armed NorK. In 1951 they could not foresee a nuke-armed NorK, but they could foresee that NorK would be trouble down the road, as it has been. When we fight we need to settle the matter, not go halfway and kick the can down the road for someone later to struggle with.

Mar 29, 2009 - 9:38 pm 39. Larry J:

Don’t be surprised if the missile launch fails and North Korea blames the failure on the US or Japan shooting it down.

Other countries go to great extremes to avoid overflying populated areas with space and missile launches. They restrict the azimuths they launch into. Israel goes so far as to launch into a highly retrograde orbit to avoid overflying neighboring countries.

Mar 30, 2009 - 6:41 am 40. Paul -Indiana:

How did it come to this? Didn’t Hillary tell the NKs not to do this? Oh, what will Obambi do??????

Mar 31, 2009 - 8:20 am 41. Breaking News:

Breaking:

North Korea Has Two Nuclear Warheads for Missile, Kyodo Reports:

March 31 (Bloomberg) — North Korea has two nuclear warheads it can load on its mid-range Rodong missile, Japan’s Kyodo News reported, citing an analyst at the International Crisis Group, a non-government organization.

The warheads were built using plutonium extracted from North Korea’s Yongbyon nuclear plant, Kyodo reported, citing Daniel Pinkston, who said he got the information from a government official without divulging which country.

South Korean and U.S. intelligence officials have obtained evidence of the warheads, Pinkston told Kyodo.

North Korea said earlier this month it plans to fire a rocket carrying a satellite into orbit between April 4 and 8. South Korea and the U.S. suspect the launch is a cover for a test of a long-range ballistic missile, which would be a breach of a United Nations resolution.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aMDehZBzI84I&refer=japan

Mar 31, 2009 - 8:44 am 42. Gordon Chang:

Libertyship46, we can do something about North Korea if we start using leverage on its sole ally, China. We have yet to put Beijing on the spot for keeping Kim in business, so the Chinese have continued their support for him as he destabilizes North Asia and the Middle East.

And we cannot just simply contain North Korea. History since 1948 shows that policy does not work. We now have a nuclear-armed nation that soon–five years or so–will be able to lob nuclear-tipped missiles at the lower 48 states. Washington always puts Pyongyang on the backburner, and the cost of inaction continues to go up.

Mar 31, 2009 - 9:07 am 43. Gordon Chang:

dan, the world is dividing into camps. I very much appreciate your pointing that out.

China and Russia have created a dangerous partnership, and we need to begin thinking of the consequences of that.

Mar 31, 2009 - 9:13 am 44. Gordon Chang:

Joshua, North Koreans would flood south in the event of a failure of their state, not north into either China or Russia.

Seoul, by the way, is getting out of the business of supporting the North. This presents an important opportunity to squeeze Pyongyang.

Mar 31, 2009 - 9:16 am 45. Gordon Chang:

Michael Lonie, yes, there is no subsitute for victory, a lesson we need to remember in connection with, say, Afghanistan. Thanks for a great comment.

Mar 31, 2009 - 9:20 am 46. Gordon Chang:

Larry J, I think we should never be surprised at what the North Koreans might do or say.

We just should not permit the North launching over one of our allies.

Mar 31, 2009 - 9:24 am 47. Gordon Chang:

Breaking News, the warhead story is of great significance. Many thanks.

Mar 31, 2009 - 9:26 am 48. Brita:

Couldn’t Hillary present the Norks with a big red button, saying on it something like “Press to launch”? I am sure it would be well received, and bring a smile to all our faces.

Mar 31, 2009 - 11:55 am 49. Gordon Chang:

Brita, I like the button idea except I would include this on it: “Press to self-destruct”

Mar 31, 2009 - 12:03 pm

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