On the Streets of Beirut
Can Lebanon shake itself free of Syrian domination and Iranian influence? A PJM report from Beirut.
Lebanon seemed particularly adept at producing scenes out of a motion picture; it was place where a stone fortress might contain a relic of the Cold War and a mountain stronghold might conceal a mystic. Involuntarily, the words of James Elroy Flecker’s Journey to Samarkand came to mind:
Beyond the last blue mountain barred with snow,
Across that angry or that glimmering sea,
White on a throne or guarded in a cave
There lives a prophet who can understand
Why men were born.
And maybe we had stood before him.
The message of these charismatic men was re-emphasized by all the minor players of the coalition: from a soberly dressed group from the Muslim Brotherhood, who were denouncing Israel when they weren’t excoriating Hezbollah, to a loose association secular, intellectual Shi’a who would be at home in any Western intellectual salon. In each case, the message was that Lebanon should be allowed to rule itself according to its unique constitutional arrangements. The alternative was re-subjugation to Syria, or worse — as some Sunni darkly feared — to Teheran. If the Lebanese state disintegrated, either because Hezbollah smashed the system or the communities were pushed too far, then the fragile unity that kept the country together might dissolve and it might revert, like a werewolf under the full moon, to sectarian conflict and civil war. Commitment to democracy was, in a way, the alternative to national suicide. The idea of Lebanon rested on an allegiance to a process rather than any specific outcome; it was the commitment to that method, which seemed to hold the March 14 movement together. Lebanon might acceptably shape-shift, depending on the exigencies of the moment, but it had to do so under certain rules or all bets were off. Stability for Lebanon seemed less a matter of attaining a definite policy, than adhering to definite process. The trouble with Syria and Iran, and their proxy Hezbollah, was that they wanted to replace consensus with hegemony. That would break the process and as a byproduct, possibly smash the country.
On February 18, our group of journalists met with senior Lebanese political figures and the question on everyone’s mind, with Senator John Kerry’s presence still fresh in the region, was what the United States was going to do regarding the peace process it was pushing in the region. Time and again it was emphasized that Lebanon’s fate, as the proxy battlefield of outside powers, was bound up in the way regional political conflicts were resolved. The Lebanese were deeply interested to know what the powers had in store for it. It was felt that one of the chief indicators was whether the International Tribunal, due to be convened in early March, would charge the Assad regime in Syria with Hariri’s murder. The Lebanese were watching the Tribunal’s actions with great interest, not simply as a criminal proceeding, but as a bellwether for the future of the International Community. Would Washington force Israel into concessions in an effort to “peel Damascus away from Teheran?” or would the peace process fall flat on its face and by miscalculation ignite yet another war between Israel and Syria/Iran/Hezbollah, with the Lebanese caught in between? There were many questions and no definite answers.
An account of the trip would be incomplete without some record of my personal impressions. Facts can be acquired from secondary sources but emotional information can only be gathered first hand. Actual people have a way of blurring categories: the terms Sunni, Shi’a, Maronite acquire, on the ground, a human face, and all of a sudden one is less convinced of one’s calculations than confirmed in the certainty of one’s ignorance. The ironic outcome of more information is to reduce false certainty. But if the future was analytically unforeseeable, in human terms the future seemed clear: Lebanon would be free one day, according to its lights. It was too complex to live under something like Hezbollah: like Dylan Thomas’ anonymous youth, it would sing in its chains like the sea.
Richard Fernandez of the Belmont Club, in Pajamas Media Express, was invited to visit Lebanon by the New Opinion Group between February 12 and February 19, 2009.
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Richard Fernandez's portal is at Wretchard.com.
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7 Comments
1. Michael J. Totten:Very good job, Richard.
Feb 26, 2009 - 5:21 am 2. Wadeusaf:As good a description of the facts on the ground in Lebanon as I’ve yet tried to untangle.
The really quirky, for I cannot truly describe the upside-down gray pattern, aspect of that present day Lebanese political standoff, is in that members of the March 14th group held, at one time a majority of seats in the cabinet. It has been the assassin’s vote and the failure to fill the vacant seat that has led to stalemate. If the numbers can be believed (last census 1948?), the march 14th party have the clear mandate of the people of Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah and even, if they so chose to settle the Sheba farms on the border of Israel.
Alas, ever murder has weakened further the will of the “Majority” and every new vote reduced the resolve of the cabinet. The Syrian/Hezbollah combination has played the terror/intimidation and political cards masterfully to have regained so much ground and power they had lost when March 14th was at its zenith.
Potential allies are put off, confused and I suppose a bit dazed at the web of alliances. That an alliance opposed to Hezbollah still can muster the strength to oppose further change is IMO something short of a miracle.
To me the road to a free Lebanon is the road to a free Damascus, and is the same road to a free Tehran. It is however a two way road, a thing the current administration appears to lack cognizance.
My fear is the manipulations currently offered by President Obama’s envoys in Damascus and Tehran will lead to the cementing of strongmen and establishment of governments that not only have a demonstrably poor human right record but a demonstrable willingness to manipulate, (i.e. lie steal cheat and murder) in order to achieve their goal so matter the expressed will or perceived desires of the citizens.
It is a parallel that is a bit frightening.
Feb 26, 2009 - 5:52 am 3. Wadeusaf:Of Course my fears are fueled by the lack of information, and the knowledge of what these envoy’s have achieved in the past.
Feb 26, 2009 - 6:00 am 4. NahnCee:Remind me again why the West, and in particular America, needs to intervene in Lebanon, and we just can’t let them sort it out for themelves? As always in the Middle East, I can’t help but think they must like living like this or they’d change it themselves.
Feb 26, 2009 - 10:33 am 5. traveler:Wadeusaf, i will give you credit for admitting you lack information about the situation. that being said, i must wonder how you can use the terms like majority and minority in a culture tht is inherently unstable. i think you are being foolish at best or naive at the worst.
finally, i think your assumption that a majority of the lebanese would reject a pro iranian/hezballoh influenced government is very very questionable. i have studied the situation years and to be perfectly candid, i suspect the US will have to be satisified with a govt that is only so/so anti american or pro western. i would think by now … knowing what happened after the last election … people would begin to grasp this reality. i might also finish with saying, as long as the west (mainly america) tries to mold the lebanese into what we think they should be … the longer the problem will continue. let them go this process by themselves and find the answer that best suits them.
Feb 26, 2009 - 11:02 am 6. Marie Claude:the last thing the Lebaneses want is that we interven in their “affairs”
ie Ralph Peters the possible “re”-cut-out, commented by Turks and Frenchs academics :
http://fig-st-die.education.fr/actes/actes_2008/de_tapia/article.html#sdfootnote8sym
at the independance in 1943, It was agreed, but not written, that the Presidency of the Republic will return to a Maronite and the post of prime minister a Sunni Muslim … These provisions meet the Maronite and Sunni bourgeoisie of Beirut as well as the clans of Mount Lebanon. The inhabitants of the regions south and east, Shiites in part, found much less their count, and kept the nostalgia of “Greater Syria”, and are being marginalized as in the rest of the Middle East.
The new government kept the french institutions and ruled with the 3rd french constitution :
http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/1366676/Constitution-of-the-Third-Republic
At the beginning of the twenty-first century, the largest communities are : 1- the Shiite Muslims (more than 30%), 2- Sunni Muslim (21%), 3-Maronite Christians (25%), Druze (6% ), Greek Orthodox, Greek Catholics and so on. Shiites tend to become the predominant group. Christians are being marginalized as in the rest of the Middle East.
http://www.herodote.net/histoire/evenement.php?jour=19200428
The problem is that the Lebanese government doesn’t represent its nowadays demography. The Shia always have were misrepresented and considered as their 3rd world population, that pushed some of their representants to “radicalism” and to look for an external support, wwhich Syria was happy to serve them, and behind Syria the iranian theocraty that saw there a tool to ignify revolts or terrorism whenever it needs it.
Though it seems that since the election of the last lebanese president, the atmosphere is a bit warmer, Lebanon send an ambassador to Syria last August, and HBZ doesn’t seem to systematically obbey to Iranians recommandations, we saw that it didn’t want to support Hamas in the last crisis.
So, I hope that the Lebanese government finally will become “realist” and find a way to compromise with the whole population ; it ain’t any good that foreign troops stay there.
Feb 26, 2009 - 1:31 pm 7. Wadeusaf:Traveler, you don’t believe the numbers either? However the majority in quotes, of quoted quotes tell me that “most” Lebanese would rather not be beholden to the Syrians thank you very much, especially if they act like the nazis in the previous post, thank you very much. The notion that they would is a fabricated plant of an lie held up by rocket launching, Iranian beholden, and Syrian succoring thugs.
Beyond that the information I lack is about the current US Administration and President’s plans for there is information aplenty about the sort of lies and deceit spread by supporters of Hezbollah and murdering agents of Baby Assad.
Feb 26, 2009 - 6:23 pmHistory will not be much help in sorting out the mess, beyond providing a starting point for figuring out where things are and I do not in any way doubt the resolve of the Lebanese in confronting outside agitators and extremists, given their fortitude in taking out the Al Qaeda who imposed themselves on a PLO “refugee” camp. Hey traveler look, there are those quotation marks again. If that is the example of the extent to which the Lebanese wish us to intervene I am all for it. Especially if such intervention were to be aimed at Nassrella. I heard a rumor that he is studying to become a Mullah along side of Al Sadr. Or perhaps he is fearful of just people talking completely justified action against him.