The necessity of governing and protecting itself has had a profound effect on the SIIC and DAWA. The inability to protect themselves and their reliance on the Americans has already pushed them away from Iran and to moderate their views. Not what we would call moderate but not where they began either. If they wish to further their aims in governing Iraq, they will have no choice but to adapt. So you say the various government ministries are incompetent, factional and largely non-functioning. I agree, but I must point out that last year the government ministries were little more than armed camps for the various militias. Not exactly a resounding improvement but at least you have some progress clearing criminal gangs out of the government buildings and starting to pay salaries and starting rudimentary tasks.

So once again what does all this do to SIIC. It finds itself in the process of transforming from the dominant militant faction to the dominant governing faction. It’s more of a change than many suspect. It’s probably more of a change than the SIIC suspects. Some effectiveness will be expected, they will have to learn to govern. The other question is a governments exclusive monopoly on armed force. I think they will have to accommodate on security too, and don’t think they will get an exclusive situation anytime soon. They will eventually need allies, deals, and compromises if they wish to achieve that though. Some will have to just be dealt with by force. I don’t think either JAM or the criminal organizations that operate as Sadr’s armed faction will be amendable to any sort of political accommodation. Sadr may well survive as a political figure but I doubt if most aggressive armed parts of his organization can be tolerated.

So how will the awakening play into this. I agree that both the SIIC and American interests would like to see it aimed at Sadr’s people. At least for now. Whether the SIIC will be able to avoid scrutiny is yet to be seen. Like any other ruling party at some point they risk their base of support if they consistently come short of supporters expectations. They will find themselves in a position where they will either accommodate others wishes or rule by dictate. I’m not so sure the entirety of Iraq can be ruled by dictate anymore. I’m not even sure to what extent the portions of Iraq are rule-able by dictate. At least not without some sort of mandate even if that is only at the tribal level. Then there is the problem of Baghdad, the mixed center of Iraqi society. There are a limited number of options to rule in Baghdad, find some sort of accommodation, or have a huge force of hundreds of thousands, or take that plunge into the violent abyss. If the Shiites even try to rule Baghdad strictly by force they will have another uprising on their hands.

The real peace is a long way off and the real war has hardly begun. Let’s hope Iraqi’s having seen the abyss will turn away from it.

What some would call American culture.

Admittedly it takes time, so far none has resisted.

Seven years ago I knew nothing about jihad, Sunni, and Shia. Now I’m learning Southern Iraqi tribal politics.

Along with our understanding and support come a little secret. Liquifaction. Funny thing is, the secret of the American secret is that we make people beg for it. No pushing allowed.

Did you know that Gillette now has a Arabian branch selling its Fusion Razor. Not only beg, but pay well for the chance. America seeps into the dreams.

The problem with this analysis (if it is a problem and I hesitate to contradict Mohammed) is that SIIC is deeply involved with the administration of the Southern Provinces. They ARE the problem the people are complaining about. It is very hard to lead a ‘protest’ movement when your people are the incompetent, corrupt, and violent officials that the protest movement is in fact protesting.

In order to lead’ would they not have to then agree to give the boot to their own corrupt leaders in the South, and agree to reform the police so that they became more police-like and less militia-like ?

I have no real idea, but if this ‘awakening’ is the result of popular dissatisfaction with incompetent and violent leaderships, I don’t see anything less than a campaign that targets these defects as being viable. It might start out as an effort against Sadr and his low-rent goons (and who would shed many tears for these guys?), but how would the Government then say — OK boys, we dealt with THAT group of ‘useless’ people, but THIS group of equally ‘useless’ people is just okey-dokey. Nothing to see here — please move on.

That might work at some point but the Great Satan will still be around for some time to come and he has cards to play as well. Not the least of which are MONEY and FORCE.

I think in fact it is a good idea for the Government to get involved in this. There needs to be a house-cleaning. I just don’t think that the Government can just arbitrarily turn off the taps once it has helped to initially open the faucets.

In any event, ANY kind of ‘awakening’ is a very good thing. Shows that the ‘people’ are tired of being ’sheeple’. Never a bad thing when the rulers can’t take the ‘ruled for granted.