It’s a Bird, It’s a Plane, It’s… Super Tuesday!
The biggest set of primaries and caucuses ever held in one day, tomorrow, is a massive complex of calculations that boil down to two essential questions, writes Bill Bradley. How fast can Barack Obama close in on Hillary Clinton? And can John McCain translate his large and growing national lead into a consolidating set of Super Tuesday victories?
By Bill Bradley
In national polls of the Democratic and Republican nomination contests, Obama has essentially closed into a dead heat with Hillary, who had long enjoyed big leads, while McCain has shot into a big lead over Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. The new CBS News/New York Times poll has it Clinton 41%, Obama 41% on the Democratic side. And McCain 46%, Romney 23% on the Republican side. The new national ABC News/Washington Post poll has similar numbers in the party contests.
In general election matchups, McCain has a narrow lead over Clinton, but trails Obama narrowly. As for Romney, both Democrats hold big leads over him, Hillary by 12 points and Obama by an astounding 25 points.
Tracking polls through Sunday, private and public, show Obama catching Clinton in a number of big contests, and McCain running strongly, with a few striking problem spots. In some cases, Obama is shooting past Hillary. For example, the Zogby tracking poll for Reuters now has Obama leading Clinton by six points in California, a Clinton redoubt since the 1990s, averaging the last three nights. But last night alone, and it’s statistically unreliable to look at only one night, Obama had a 17-point edge. He also made a big upward move in Missouri, following a huge St. Louis rally on Saturday.
While there is drama aplenty in both parties — with the Republicans’ hard right radio talkers and pundit-bloggers trying to block the merely moderately conservative McCain and boost formerly liberal Massachusetts Governor Romney –the biggest drama is on the Democratic side.
So first to the Republicans.
After a sizable Florida victory, McCain seems poised for victory in most of the big Super Tuesday contests, in many cases big victories over Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. Of the big states, it seems only Georgia and California are problematic for McCain; the latter paradoxically, since he got the backing of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger a few days ago.
Here is where the races in the two parties intersect. For Schwarzenegger’s Kennedy family member wife, former NBC anchor Maria Shriver, dramatically endorsed Obama yesterday at a huge UCLA rally with Oprah Winfrey, Caroline Kennedy, and Michelle Obama. Tracking polls Sunday night in California show Obama moving up. And McCain moving down. It may be that having Mrs. Schwarzenegger out to be a difference-maker for the Democrats’ most formidable general election candidate is too much for many conservative Republicans. And the California Republican primary is closed to independents.
Confirming that his wife has lost her once massive lead in California to Barack Obama, former President Bill Clinton – who already campaigned around the LA media market this Sunday morning, as I reported he would – stayed on to campaign all day around California on Monday, as I also revealed he would. He will hit Orange County, the Central Valley, Sacramento, and San Francisco.
California First Lady and former NBC anchor Maria Shriver making a dramatic surprise appearance at the massive Oprah/Caroline Kennedy/Maria Elena Durazo/Michelle Obama rally at UCLA’s Pauley Pavilion didn’t rank as a nuclear event. Quite.
Shriver showed after a Sunday horse outing, in riding attire sans makeup or special coif, deciding finally after days of consideration to endorse Obama. “The more I thought about it,” she said, “I thought you know if Barack Obama was a state, he’d be California. I mean, think about it – diverse, open, smart, independent, bucks tradition, innovative, inspiring, dreamer, leader. And the thing I like the best … he’s not about himself. He’s about us. We’re at the epicenter of change,” she said. “We can lead this country. So I would ask you to go out to follow your heart, to be proud that you’re doing that, and to remember that so goes California, so goes the nation.”
Here, incidentally, was a tell that this might happen. When Barack Obama held his dramatic rally last Monday at the American University in Washington with Ted Kennedy (JFK’s brother) and Caroline Kennedy, (JFK’s daughter), there was actually another Kennedy on hand as well. Which went unreported. That Kennedy was JFK’s sister, Eunice Kennedy Shriver, whose health now does not put her in the position of making big rally speeches. Eunice, a familiar figure from NWN videos, is also, in addition to being the founder of Special Olympics, the mother of Maria Shriver and mother-in-law of Arnold Schwarzenegger. Her husband and Maria’s father, Sargent Shriver, among many things founded the Peace Corps.
How this all turns out is still in flux. Romney is cancelling out of Missouri, where he’s running third behind McCain and Huckabee, and suddenly rushing back to California to try to cement a win.
Since California, unlike the other big Republican states, is not winner-take-all, it’s a bit problematic for him. But he can use any psychological boost he can get. Schwarzenegger, meanwhile, will campaign for McCain today. And presumably not be sounding the general election message he signaled last week, when he talked up the environment and McCain’s ability to “work across the aisle.” Former Governor Pete Wilson, a colleague of McCain’s from the Armed Services Committee on which the Vietnam War hero has long served, is also pitching in.
Hillary Clinton campaigns today in Massachusetts, where she still led, last I checked, and in Connecticut, where she has lost her lead, holds a national “virtual town hall” on her web site and the Hallmark Channel, and ends the day trying to be amusing on Late Night with David Letterman.
Barack Obama holds rallies tomorrow in New Jersey, where he’s pulled into a tie with Hillary, Connecticut, where he leads, and Massachusetts.
As consequential as the twenty-odd state contests in both parties are on Tuesday, this is not all there is to the week.
This coming Saturday brings the Louisiana primary, the Kansas Republican primary, the Nebraska Democratic caucuses, and the Washington state caucuses. And a week from Tuesday brings several Southern primaries, in Virginia, Maryland, and Washington, D.C. On balance, these contests look pretty good for Barack Obama and John McCain.
Hillary Clinton has one big thing going for her tomorrow.
There’s a score of contests, and not enough time for Obama to campaign fully in them. (Obama is now quite famous, but Hillary has depth of fame. Democrats know more about her, making it easier for her campaign to shoot him down, as it did in New Hampshire, with highly questionable charges.) Even in California. I said weeks ago that if Obama had two full days of campaigning in California, doing the right things, he would beat Clinton there. He didn’t have those two days, because he had to get better known really fast in states around the country. And yet he may beat her anyway, in a state that Bill Clinton — now here in a last ditch effort to stave off defeat — called his own through the eight years of his presidency.
Hillary will have little opportunity to reassert her former dominance in the next few weeks. Tomorrow is the best turn in the calendar she had going for her until March.
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2 Comments
1. jacksmith:Bottom Line:
Like all of you. I know that health care is the most critical, and important issue facing the American people. Now, and in the coming elections. And like the vast majority of the American people, I want HR 676 (Medicare For All) passed into law NOW! “Single payer, Tax Supported, Not For Profit, True Universal Health Care” free for all as a right. Like every other developed country in the world has. See: http://www.house.gov/conyers/news_hr676.htm
“HR 676:
For church goers: less money to insur. companies and more to the church- lots more.
Srs on Medicare: save way over $100/wk. Because no more medigap, long term care & dental insur. needed. No more drug bills.”
But if we the American people fail to bring enough pressure on our current politicians to get HR 676 passed into law before the elections. We will have to identify, and replace all the politicians standing in the way of passage of HR 676. And, I think the best first place to start is with the politicians that blocked the bipartisan SCHIP bills for the kids. Passed by congress twice.
But what about the President. It was Bush after all that blocked the bipartisan SCHIP bill passed by congress to assure more health coverage for Americas kids. So which of the presidential hopefuls do I think will be most supportive of implementing the demand of the majority of the American people to have HR 676 (Medicare For All) passed into law immediately!
We have some very fine presidential candidates who would make good presidents. But none of the top Presidential candidates directly support HR 676, the only true Universal Health Care plan. So I am supporting Hillary Clinton. She is the only top candidate that has ever actually fought for universal health care before.
I have enormous admiration, and respect for Hillary Clinton. She fought a pitched battle against overwhelming odds back in 1993. To prevent this disastrous health care crisis that is now devastating the American people, and America. She fought so hard for the American people that she risk almost completely destroying her husbands presidency. I haven’t forgotten her heroic effort. If any Presidential hopeful for universal health care deserves my support, it’s her.
Also, if we the American people fail to bring enough pressure on our government to give us HR 676 which we all so desperately need NOW! Then we will need the most skilled politician we can get on our side to broker the best health care plan for the American people that we can get. Though it will be less than we need, and less than we deserve. The politician I think to best do this is Hillary Clinton. The Clinton’s are probably the most skilled politicians in American history.
The insurance industry, and medical industry that has been ripping you off, and killing you has given Hillary Clinton so much money because they fear her. They have also given Barack Obama so much money because they fear Hillary Clinton. They think they can manipulate Barack Obama against the best interest of the American people better than they can manipulate Hillary Clinton. There is no race issue with Hillary Clinton. The Clinton’s are the poster family for how African Americans want white people to be towards African Americans.
As always, African Americans are suffering, and dieing in this health care crisis at a much higher rate than any other group in America. The last time there was any significant drop in the African American death rate was when Bill Clinton was president.
My fellow Americans, you are dieing needlessly at an astounding rate. In higher numbers than any other people in the developed world. Rich, and poor a like. Insured, and uninsured. Men, women, children, and babies. And we the American people must stop it. And fix it NOW! Keep Fighting!!! Never! give up hope. There are millions of lives at stake. Bless you all… You are doing great!
Feb 4, 2008 - 8:56 am 2. T. West:I served proudly in the Clinton Administration, even worked for Bill Clinton before he was president, and have many friends who are supporting Sen. Clinton’s campaign. But this time, at this defining moment in history, I’m supporting Barack. Here’s why: http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/tonywest/CP8p
Feb 4, 2008 - 2:08 pm