Pajamas Media

159 Comments

1. Delia:

LOL! Flu happens…!

‘Pandemic’ means that YOUNG, HEALTHY people contract and spread it.

Wash your hands as the author says [duh]… If you feel sick don’t go to work and spread it for frick sake [double-duh]. If your symptoms turn really bad seek medical attention [triple duh].

A combo of vitamin C/D/E and zinc have been proven to be immune boosters.

Everyone should ‘buck up’ on foods rich in folic acid too (eggs). Foods rich in zinc are shellfish (namely, oysters).

Bolster your immune systems.

I’ve been eating raw honey, raw royal jelly, raw bee pollen, raw goji berries, raw cocoa, raw coconut oil et al and I didn’t get sick once this winter and nor did my husband who is exposed to many people.

Money means NOTHING if you don’t have your HEALTH. Take care of YOU.

Sorry to sound preachy…I’m just at a point in my life where I’m so thankful I’m as healthy as I am and I attribute it to my diet and lifestyle.

Apr 26, 2009 - 11:51 pm 2. Duncan:

The concern people have, is that we may have a return of a version of influenza like the Spanish flu of 1918-19. More people died from it than in the first world war. People of all ages died, not just the very young and old. If it turns up again, and it is not controlled, the deaths would number upwards of 50 million dead.

Apr 27, 2009 - 12:35 am 3. Wayne:

My latest web comic about the whole thing:

http://bit.ly/t9R4D

Apr 27, 2009 - 12:39 am 4. Son of Max:

Most flus are “just the flu”.

Pandemic strains can be far, far more serious, because they are new and people have no immunity. The 1917/18 flu pandemic killed more people than World War 1. Most of the victims were young, in their best years. Their deaths were horrible – the symptoms were so unlike an ordinary “just flu” that it was long thought that it was a wholly new plague. People literally dropped dead in the street.

No links – I’m not trying to push a particular barrow. Just google “Spanish flu”

This current outbreak may be different; probably will be. At best, something like Mr Martin’s scenario. At worst….well imagine how you’ll cope if a third or a half of your community is dead, bedridden or caring for the sick – oh, and the electricity and water are off and there’s no food in the shops, because everyone else’s community is in the same situation. Try to imagine how well your local hospital would cope.

Mr Martin is right. Don’t panic. But do make preparations. Try here: http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=11957

Apr 27, 2009 - 12:41 am 5. robotech master:

“There’s also a list of things that won’t help. Closing the border with Mexico won’t help. Not only has that horse left the station, with cases apparently showing up in New York and Kansas, but flu is perfectly happy to cross the border with birds and wild animals.”

A weak argument at best… with hundreds of thousands of ppl crossing the border if even a few thousand are infected they could easily spread it… they will not obey quarantine just like they don’t obey the border… a handful of cases in NY or anywhere is hardly a reason to suddenly not care. Illegals use buses and other forms of mass trans… they will travel great distances to meet up with friends all across the US. Even a handful of infected could spread it across half a dozen states in a matter of days.

This simple fact is if this does become an issue(which is highly doubtful) millions of mexicans could try to flee north and they would spread it like the plague across the whole US. If the CDC and homeland security believe this to be a threat shut it down before it starts to spread amass.

Apr 27, 2009 - 1:12 am 6. Chileno:

News organizations are in the business of selling news, that much is true. But even the boy who cried “wolf” did, in the end, face his nemesis.

This flu outbreak does merit some concern. “Swine flu” refers to strains that usually affect pigs. Though some pig handlers may get infected (i.e. animal-to person transmission), that’s where it stops. This new strain apparently has person-to-person transmission, giving it a much greater potential to spread. Of course, all human flu strains spread person-to-person (and kill thousands), but those at risk are usually the very old or very young. Those who have become ill in this outbreak are NOT the “sickest of the sick.” Many, including some of those who died, have been young and considered otherwise healthy. “Only” 103 deaths have occurred -in just 3 days.

How bad could a flu outbreak get? In 1968, a “Hong Kong” flu outbreak killed about 1 million people worldwide. The 1918 “Spanish flu” pandemic killed as many as 100 million. We have been told of “coming pandemics” before. The SARS scare was in China, this is much closer to home. Avian flu was never shown to transmit person-to-person, this strain apparently can. So while the number of cases (so far) is low, and, no, we should not panic, we still should be vigilant.

This threat has essentially shut down Mexico City, a metropolis of 20 million. Schools, museums, and other public buildings are closed. 4 million Mexicans are walking around with face masks.

Is this not news? Of course it is. Should you change your lifestyle? No. You should always wash your hands (often) and avoid closed, cramped quarters with people who may have respiratory illnesses. Those over 50 or with chronic diseases should always get vaccinated. If you feel sick, wearing the “flu mask” will not help you, but may help stop the spread to those around you.

As with all medical issues, you should always consult your doctor, not an article written by a computer scientist with his own agenda.

Apr 27, 2009 - 3:10 am 7. fear Obama:

Those barbecue spare ribs are going to get nuked in the microwave for an extra 10 minutes.

Think prevention!

Apr 27, 2009 - 3:27 am 8. Class Clown:

Perhaps this will be yet another fine opportunity for lots of clueless people to take un-needed antibiotics (which do nothing against the flu), and thereby toughen up the world’s bacterial strains even more.

That way, if the flu doesn’t get us, staph will.

Cheers.

Apr 27, 2009 - 4:06 am 9. Vaughn:

Buy pork producer stocks!

Apr 27, 2009 - 4:38 am 10. Prayerfully hopeful:

As a 74 year old woman I have listend to many health scares along the way. I believe this is another scare tactics to panic the American people. It states in the bible “if God is for you, who can be against you”! We should concentrate on preventatives more so than panic. Basics: i.e good hygiene, diet, rest, less stress,and more spiritual love. The end result is,not how long we live but how well we accept and respect God’s world. Take precaution in all that we do and say.

Apr 27, 2009 - 4:46 am 11. Leigh Thelmadatter:

Mexico City is not “shut down” I can still walk out of my apartment and go buy some milk and bread down the street. Yes, by federal government order many public places are shut and two soccer games were held yesterday with no fans in the stands. Traffic is quiet here, but not eeriely so… more like Easter-holiday so.

People here generally are not panicing but are taking this seriously. While the actions of the Mexican federal governmment may seem extremely strong, esp. coming from so high up, they make sense considering the culture here. 1)People tend to be fatalistic, so you have to kind of jolt them past that and 2) nothing really gets down unless the big boss orders it. Maybe in the US local and state officials could issue the orders and get results, that very will might not have worked here. Since time was of the essence, they didnt bother trying with any middlemen.

Mexico is handling this FAR better than China did with SARS a number of years ago.

As far as the border. Not going to help for the reasons stated above plus, the affected areas are in and around Mexico City. Most immigrants to the States (legal or not) do not come from here as this is the most affluent part of the country. This flu has not spread nationwide here as it has in the States *knock wood*

Take the hype you read in the news with a big grain of salt. Most foreign reporters know nothing of the culture here and yes, they got papers to sell. I havent looked yet (its still early in the morning) but Im sure the tabloids here have some very “lovely” headlines.

Apr 27, 2009 - 5:14 am 12. Fragmentarian:

Last year’s flu shot would have no effect on this flu. Next year’s will but by then there will be a new flu that won’t be included in the shot. The “big one”, if it comes, won’t be affected by a flu shot, if my understanding is correct.

Apr 27, 2009 - 5:16 am 13. Charlie Martin:

Here’s a litle update for you. According to the CDC, about 200,000 people are hospitalized in the US every year for flu and it’s complications. There are about 36,000 deaths every year.

Computed just on the basis of hospital admissions and deaths, which is what it appears we’re getting from early numbers in Mexico, ‘flu has a mortality of 18 percent.

Of course this is nonsense — one out of five of the people you’ve known to have flu haven’t died — but then, as I suggested above, it’s unlikely everyone in Mexico with a case of gripe went to the hospital either.

Apr 27, 2009 - 5:27 am 14. Ozzie:

The thing I find most troubling is that the Mexico deaths are healthy adults. No one under 3, no one very old in the first 80 people. The viruses’ current mutation is causing a hyper immune response. Their own immune system is killing them fighting the virus. I refuse to be afraid, but I am paying attention.

Apr 27, 2009 - 5:48 am 15. Another Chuck:

Any thoughts on the value of spritzing a painters dust mask with bleach?

Apr 27, 2009 - 6:03 am 16. savage24:

The thing is to scare the hell out of the public. And keep their minds off of the dismal failure of the Obama presidency. Last week it was waterboarding then the flu. What will it be next week? I’ll make you a bet that the politicians will get the flu shots first. God knows we need them.

Apr 27, 2009 - 6:25 am 17. Boris:

“Out of 800 cases reported as of this writing, only around 60 people have died.”

Of all the stupid things written on this website.

A 7% kill rate would be catastrophic for any flu virus.

I agree that we shouldn’t panic, but shrugging off the seriousness of this outbreak is moronic.

Apr 27, 2009 - 6:39 am 18. Chuck Pelto:

TO: Charlie (Colorado) Martin, et al.
RE: The Unscrupulous

“Don’t forget: with the Internet and a 24-hour news cycle, nobody makes money by keeping us calm.” — Charlie Martin

Certainly they are with us, always.

And maybe the Instapundit should stop shilling for Amazon.com, as some of the reviews I’ve read on the products—it/he are suggesting people should buy against the possibility of a swine flu pandemic—are not very kind to shoddy products, e.g., face masks that fall apart within a half-hour of putting on.

RE: Be Prepared

Still and all, sooner or later another pandemic will occur. It’s just a matter of time. So one should “Be Prepared” against such a contingency.

However, it’s hard to think straight when you’re in a state of ‘panic’. Indeed, I’ve found that these ’scares’ don’t scare me much as I’m pretty well prepared for them, and other contingencies, in the first place.

RE: Panic

Panic is, by definition, an ‘unthinking’ response. This is never good.

However, contrary to your comment in another venue, I don’t think what Drudge has done is ‘panicky’. Rather, it has been informative. At least to me. Whether or not others get ‘panicked’ by it is probably a function of their (1) being ignorant and/or (2) unpreparedness. I suspect the more unprepared someone is for a situation, the more likely they are to be panicked when the situation occurs to them.

Therefore, I propose that the sooner we learn of a potential problem, the better prepared the intelligent/rational individual will be. So, for all intents and purposes, please tell ME what’s going on where so I can gage the risk factor for myself.

My big concern is that the government would hide the seriousness of a situation from me in hope of avoiding panic. But, when the situation was too far gone to do anything constructive to prepare for it, THEN the government would say, “Oh! Ooooooh!!!!!!”

So, again, I say, “Be Prepared”…..as you can’t trust the government to do what is right.

Regards,

Chuck(le)
[Chance favors the prepared mind. -- Louis Pasteur, Father of Modern Microbiology]

Apr 27, 2009 - 6:39 am 19. Chuck Pelto:

TO: Charlie (Colorado) Martin
RE: Care To….

“Closing the border with Mexico won’t help.” — Charlie Martin

….prove that point?

Let me offer an analogy to blow you away.

Consider the virus to be an invading army, bent upon destruction of life. And each carrier of the virus is a foot-soldier in that army.

Just because the invaders are already here, does that mean we should let more of these murderous invaders amongst US?

Then again, let’s look at the health department’s plans for dealing with the ‘invasion’. They call for immediate isolation of the ‘foot-soldiers’, separating them from everyone else, lest the convert others to be similar ‘foot-soldiers’. They don’t say “Let them wander amongst US”.

To what end should we close the border?

• Fewer ‘foot-solders’ of the invading forces to spread the invasion.
• More time to prepare our response to the invasion.
• Better ability to isolate and control outbreaks of the invasion amongst US with the limited assets that we have.

No. Your comment here is patently in error. And the decision of the US government, under Obama, is made based on economic and political standards trumping rational thought.

Obama has said, for all intents and purposes, “Come in to our house and trash it. Kill as many of US as you possibly can. Spread death and mayhem amongst US.”

This is, patently, ‘Stupid’. And possibly criminally reckless.

Want proof? Let’s watch the international community. And see if they start barring international air-traffic from North American points of departure.

I do believe that we’re seeing the first indications of such already, as England is screening passengers coming from Mexico for the flu.

Regards,

Chuck(le)
[You, you, and you: Panic. The rest of you, come with me.]

Apr 27, 2009 - 6:52 am 20. Delia:

7. fear Obama:

“Those barbecue spare ribs are going to get nuked in the microwave for an extra 10 minutes.”

ROTFLMAO!

I hope ya’ll know you don’t get swine flu from cooked pork. he-he

Apr 27, 2009 - 7:01 am 21. Hotpatch 6:

We will be OK – Obama has voted “Present”.

Apr 27, 2009 - 7:08 am 22. Charlie Martin:

The thing I find most troubling is that the Mexico deaths are healthy adults. No one under 3, no one very old in the first 80 people. The viruses’ current mutation is causing a hyper immune response. Their own immune system is killing them fighting the virus. I refuse to be afraid, but I am paying attention.

Ozzie, do you have a source for that? I’ve been looking around, and I haven’t seen anything that says “healthy adults”, nor that the causes of death are from cytokine cascades instead of the usual.

A 7% kill rate would be catastrophic for any flu virus.

But the equivalent mortality rate (deaths out of hospitalized cases) for regular flu is 18 percent, Boris. (See my comment above.) So regular flu must be three times as high.

Chuck, when you can close the border to javelina and birds, you might have a point.

Apr 27, 2009 - 7:26 am 23. seven:

Is the flu extensive enough to save the life of just one newspaper for one more week?

Apr 27, 2009 - 7:31 am 24. Chuck Pelto:

TO: Charlie (Colorado) Martin
RE: Soooo…..

Chuck, when you can close the border to javelina and birds, you might have a point. — Charlie Martin

….you welcome the ‘invaders’?

Prove yourself and go invite them to dinner at your place. Have them spend the night. Don’t mind the coughing…..

RE: Mortality Rates

But the equivalent mortality rate (deaths out of hospitalized cases) for regular flu is 18 percent, Boris. (See my comment above.) So regular flu must be three times as high. — Charlie Martin

Where did you get that stat? Just those who were hospitalized? That’s a LOUSY stat. You’re supposed to consider all the afflicted against all the dead. Not just the most severely afflicted.

If your understanding were accurate, Mexico City wouldn’t be looking like a ‘ghost town’ of 20-million.

Regards,

Chuck(le)
[He thinks by infection, catching an opinion like a cold.]

Apr 27, 2009 - 7:36 am 25. Chuck Pelto:

P.S. Birds don’t, generally, cough in your face and make you deathly sick by doing so…..

Apr 27, 2009 - 7:37 am 26. Delia:

[I think] the reason the deaths in Mexico are so high is because…well, it’s freakin’ MEXICO. Health care is abominable there, not to mention poverty and overall lack of proper medical aid, proper hygiene, proper diet etc. How many impoverished Mexicans even LISTEN TO THE NEWS?

Our borders are a joke. More like ‘boarders’. Pfft!

Apr 27, 2009 - 7:38 am 27. Charlie Martin:

Delia, I don’t even think the deaths are particularly high, see the figures for US flu. We don’t have any idea how many people in Mexico came down with a bug and never saw a doc nor needed a hospital.

Apr 27, 2009 - 7:43 am 28. Chuck Pelto:

TO: Charlie (Colorado) Martin
RE: The Healthy Ones Going ‘Out’

…I haven’t seen anything that says “healthy adults”, nor that the causes of death are from cytokine cascades instead of the usual. — Charlie Martin

HERE ya go….

Here’s the critical paragraph….

Most of the Mexican dead were aged between 25 and 45, a Mexican health official said, in a worrying sign. Seasonal flu can be more deadly among the very young and the very old but a hallmark of pandemics is that they affect healthy young adults. — the Article

Hope that helps…

Regards,

Chuck(le)
[Forewarned is forearmed.]

Apr 27, 2009 - 7:44 am 29. Delia:

25. Chuck Pelto:

“Birds don’t, generally, cough in your face and make you deathly sick by doing so…..”
~

Yeah, but…they WILL eat your french fries and bread crumbs!

I [jokingly] told my husband today that I’m cooking a pork roast in honor of the ’swine flu’.

Okay, time for me to put on my conspiracy theory tin-foil hat:

What a perfect way to spread a disease! Use the Mexicans who have been rushing our borders at record numbers because of the corruption, violence-out-of-control and drug lording going on. Mexico can be the scape-goat for a bigger, badder evil. Bio-warfare with designer diseases. -Enter the ANDROMEDA STRAIN. Only, this ain’t no Michael Crichton thriller…

Tin foil hat off:

Phew. I skeered myself a little.

Apr 27, 2009 - 7:53 am 30. Chuck Pelto:

TO: Delia
RE: The ‘Borders’

Our borders are a joke. More like ‘boarders’. Pfft! — Delia

Therein lies the REAL reason the government won’t close the borders. It’s because THEY CAN’T and any attempt to try to do so would prove the broadness of the problem.

This, on top of the economic aspects, which I think would be nearly negligible. Or the political, which would be even less significant, in the long run.

RE: The Body-Counts

I too have found it odd that all those deaths are south of the border and none north of it. I suspect that CDC and especially WHO are pulling their hair out over that. Well…..maybe not the CDC. They’re probably grateful, albeit perplexed.

What IS it? The diet? The water? The tequila? Their brand of toothpaste?

Regards,

Chuck(le)
[We cannot banish dangers, but we can banish fears. We must not demean life by standing in awe of death. -- David Sarnoff]

Apr 27, 2009 - 7:54 am 31. Charlie Martin:

Chuck, the fact is your analogy is just wrong. Why? Because in an invasion, the invaders don’t turn people on your side into invaders. But consider: so far the cases in the US, Europe, and New Zealand have been linked to people who recently visited Mexico and came home. So, unless you’re suggesting exiling US citizens who have visited Mexico, closing the border wouldn’t have made a difference.

There’s an old computer science puzzle: say you have two fruit flies in a bottle, and they reproduce every twelve hours, producing two offspring. This is a computer science puzzle, not a biology one, so the flies don’t die and we don’t worry about what they’re eating. Let’s say the bottle is going to be absolutely full at time t. With no other information, when is the bottle exactly half-full? The answer: no matter how big the bottle is, is t minus 12 hours.

The real surprise is that this is also true if you load the bottle with 4, or 8, or 10,000 fruit flies; all that’s different is that t might come a little earlier — but not much.

The analogy with this flu should be obvious, but I’m going to belabor it anyway: whether 10 cases came across the border, or 10 thousand, doesn’t actually make a lot of difference. Those 10 people handled bills, drank at water fountains, kissed their mothers. Those people who contacted them did the same.

Then, of course, there’s the fact that cases were detected in the US within a day or two of the new flu strain being identified at all. Thus my point that the horse is out of the barn.

Oh, and by the way, my Mexican housekeeper will be here in about an hour, so yeah, I am walking my talk.

On your #28, I’m sorry, that doesn’t say “healthy adults,” and doesn’t say that the causes of death included primary flu immune issues.

Apr 27, 2009 - 8:09 am 32. not so fast:

I love the wild conjecture going on here. Not a doctor or a nurse or a scientist in the bunch and yet conviction runs amok without a shred of supporting evidence. Pure emotion may have worked in the recent past, but it’s clear that science is regaining its role in the public discourse. I think that’s good. I like science. Science is like facts – we should not fear it. We should follow it wherever it takes us, knowing that if we are people of faith, that faith should be strong enough to withstand a few contradictory revelations along the way. I mean, the fact that Donald Rumsfeld made millions off his anti-bird flu vaccine stock the last time this kind of thing happened should not color our perception of what’s REALLY happening.

Apr 27, 2009 - 8:13 am 33. JED:

Deaths caused by the 1918 Pandemic were mostly caused by complications due to the pneumonia that followed the virus. Modern antibiotics would fairly well solve that problem. Tamaflu will be tested in this arena on a massive scale to guage weither it would work on the possible bird flu.
The 20 to 30 year olds are the carriers as they are out and about in public circulation. The young, elderly, and infirmed are delayed from their contact with the virus.
The CDC has been doing a smashing good job of being prepared and ahead of the curve of an epidemic. It is hoped that the politicians follow their lead and see this outbreak as a medical and not a political problem, requiring a medical solution and not a political solution. The Mexican border situation has been seen by politicians as a potential-voter-event and not a security risk.

Apr 27, 2009 - 8:17 am 34. Charlie Martin:

Where did you get that stat? Just those who were hospitalized? That’s a LOUSY stat. You’re supposed to consider all the afflicted against all the dead. Not just the most severely afflicted.

Sorry, missed this one. I thought I’d linked or cited the CDC for that figure. Here: http://www.cdc.gov/FLU/protect/keyfacts.htm Sorry you don’t like the statistic, but the CDC is a fairly reputable source. In any case, I don’t think the Mexico stat is considering all the afflicted against the dead: just ones who were sick enough to go to a doctor, and have their vial strain identified; those are almost certainly among the sickest.

Apr 27, 2009 - 8:22 am 35. Charlie Martin:

not so fast, I actually did my PhD work in a medical school. I’m not an MD, but I am a scientist.

Apr 27, 2009 - 8:23 am 36. Charlie Martin:

Chuck, on #30, pop quiz: if you’ve had 103 deaths in about 1300 cases (most recent figures I’ve seen) how many deaths would you expect to see in 20 cases? What do you suppose the variance is?

Apr 27, 2009 - 8:25 am 37. Chuck Pelto:

TO: not so fast
RE: Heh

Not a doctor or a nurse or a scientist in the bunch and yet conviction runs amok without a shred of supporting evidence — not so fast

My degree is microbiology. With an emphasis on pathogens.

What’s your degree in?

Regards,

Chuck(le)
[I have a degree in Liberal Arts; do you want fries with that? -- not so fast(?)]

Apr 27, 2009 - 8:28 am 38. Chuck Pelto:

TO: Charlie (Colorado) Martin
RE: Quibbling, Anyone?

On your #28, I’m sorry, that doesn’t say “healthy adults,”…. — Charlie Martin

I thought American English was your native tongue?

Or did you skip the verbiage in the paragraph I quoted from the article? The part that READS….

….a hallmark of pandemics is that they affect healthy young adults.

And that from, despite ‘not so fast’ comment about no professionals in the discussion and no supporting evidence.

….and doesn’t say that the causes of death included primary flu immune issues — Charlie Martin

This is certainly either quibbling on your part OR has your computer-oriented brain been infected by some strange form of virus that interferes with cogent and rational associative comments?

What do you think the official was referring to in the article? Hanta virus? Overdosing while huffing aerosol propellant?

Sakes!

RE: Walk’n & Talk’n….Trash

Oh, and by the way, my Mexican housekeeper will be here in about an hour, so yeah, I am walking my talk. — Charlie Martin

Is she just back from seeing the family in Mexico City? If not, have her go on vacation for a couple of weeks there. THEN talk to me about your Mexican Cleaning-Woman.

Regards,

Chuck(le)
[Cleaning-woman??!?! CLEANING-WOMAN!!!!!!!]

Apr 27, 2009 - 8:38 am 39. TheMightyMonarch:

Reminds me of the Bill Hicks bit about watching CNN for 20 hours straight…

“WAR…FAMINE…DISEASE…RECESSION…DEPRESSION…WAR…FAMINE…”

Then you look outside your window:

“chirp, chirp…chirp, chirp…”

The first clue that we have little to worry about is that most of the deaths were in Mexico, where a minor cut can turn into a systemic bacterial infection if treated in the hospital. Here we have access to clean hospitals and myriad medications, and a lethal flu suddenly turns into a two-to-three day inconvenience.

Apr 27, 2009 - 8:40 am 40. Chuck Pelto:

TO: Charlie (Colorado) Martin
RE: As I Said….

….pop quiz: if you’ve had 103 deaths in about 1300 cases (most recent figures I’ve seen) how many deaths would you expect to see in 20 cases? What do you suppose the variance is? — Charlie Martin

….in my comment to Delia at item #30 (above), which you reference.

Why we have not seen deaths THIS SIDE of the border is a mystery.

As I understand it, all of the identified cases in the US have been younger than 25 years of age. That MIGHT be a factor, as the article I cited to your in item #28 (above) indicate that most heavily afflicted group is those young adults between the ages of 25 and 45.

Why you’re not reading this information properly is something of a mystery too. Is there a political agenda at play here? Something to do with your taking a stance vis-a-vis Drudge’s reporting? Something that you can’t let go of?

Regards,

Chuck(le)
P.S. That article in Item #28 (above) comes to you via Drudge Report…..

Apr 27, 2009 - 8:42 am 41. Ozzie:

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D97P0VS00&show_article=1

Epidemiologists are particularly concerned because the only people killed so far were normally less-vulnerable young people and adults. It’s possible that more vulnerable populations—infants and the aged—had been vaccinated against other strains, and that those vaccines may be providing some protection.

http://www.elpasotimes.com/ci_12218501?source=rss_viewed

Cordova described a chilling new strain that had killed only people among the normally less-vulnerable young and mid-adult age range. One possibility is that the most vulnerable segments of the population – infants and the aged – had been vaccinated against other strains, and that those vaccines may be providing some protection.

I’m still looking for the link that was talking about people drowning in their own fluids from an overstimulated immune response.

Apr 27, 2009 - 8:44 am 42. Chuck Pelto:

TO: JED
RE: Interesting Report

Deaths caused by the 1918 Pandemic were mostly caused by complications due to the pneumonia that followed the virus. — JED

Do you have a citation? URL for that information? Something I can refer to?

Thanks,

Chuck(le)
[Death: To finally stop sinning.]

Apr 27, 2009 - 8:44 am 43. Chuck Pelto:

TO: Charlie (Colorado) Martin
RE: That ‘Link’ to CDC

If you’re going to give me a link to something you think worthwhile, maybe you should (1) double check it or (2) quote the salient information.

I don’t care much for being sent on a fool’s errand, as there is nothing I could find in the page you sent me to that dealt with mortality or fatality rates amongst patients of the seasonal flu. Only information on why the CDC thinks people should get shots against their predicted seasonal flu.

So, please….stop wasting my time like that. I may have to use such incidents as evidence you don’t know what you’re talking about.

Instead, show me a url that has data backing up your claim that the seasonal flu has a mortality rate of 18%, while the Swine Flu pandemic of 1918 was rated at less than 10%.

If your stat were correct, the nation would go into a state of emergency every Fall.

Show me your source of information that the seasonal flu has a mortality rate of 18%, as you claimed in item #13 (above).

Regards,

Chuck(le)
[Death: Chilled out, to room temperature.]

Apr 27, 2009 - 8:56 am 44. Charlie Martin:

I don’t think it’s my reading comprehension that’s at issue, Chuck.

- The part you bolded isn’t actually quoting the Mexican official, and since your degree in microbiology you undoubtedly observed that it actually doesn’t make any sense, either. The hallmark of pandemics is that they’re widespread. A hallmark of the 1917-18 “Spanish flu” was that it was unusually hard on that demo. That’s a couple of Reuters reporters having a rough time.

- Ozzie said “Their own immune system is killing them fighting the virus” and I was responding to that. Nothing in that story, nor in any of the more technical stuff I’ve read this morning, supports it.

On the cleaning-woman thing, I get paid by the word or by the hour; I can make a helluva lot more money in an hour of writing than I pay for an hour of cleaning. Do the math.

Apr 27, 2009 - 8:57 am 45. Delia:

30. Chuck Pelto,

Exactly. It doesn’t look good for the illegal alien Democrat vote when diseases start crossing the borders on the backs of the…well…’wet backs’.
~

41. Ozzie,

Chilling indeed. Think about it. A perfect virus strain that can wipe out healthy, strong individuals whilst leaving the elderly and young intact but leaving nobody strong enough to fight against a takeover regime. Creepy much? A much too muchhhhhhhhh! YIKES.

*adjusts tin-foil hate* ha-ha… *gulp*

Apr 27, 2009 - 9:04 am 46. Charlie Martin:

Thanks, Ozzie. We still don’t know if the deaths were somehow immunocompromisedbut I appreciate the links. If it really is a cytokine cascade — the phenomenon you’re referring to — that would be more worrisome, but I haven’t seen anything other than speculation about it. Chuck, that is what the historical record says; there’s more recent work suggesting the pneumonia was crom this cytokine event instead of secondary infection, but why didn’t know about cytokines in 1918: they simply diagnosed pneumonia, which is after all a symptom, not a disease. The Wikipedia article is pretty decent on this, at least as of a couple minutes ago.

On the pop quiz, I can’t give you full credit. The answer — expected value — is 1.2, but the variance is high. Statistically, with a sample of only 20 cases and a six percent mortality rate, it’s extremely probable that we wouldn’t have seen any deaths even if the mortality rate were the same. In other words, we don’t have enough information to distinguish the US rate from the null hypothesis, that the rates are the same.

Apr 27, 2009 - 9:07 am 47. Chuck Pelto:

TO: Charlie (Colorado) Martin
RE: Widespreadedness

The hallmark of pandemics is that they’re widespread. — Charlie Martin

It’s gotta start SOMEWHERE, Charlie. That is unless we have a Tom Clancy novel on our hands, vis-a-vis Executive Orders. In which case some nation-state had better be building fallout shelters. As our response to a biowarfare attack is supposed to be nuclear in nature. But as this looks to be a single-point eruption, as opposed to multiple points at the same time, as in the novel. I think we can safely ‘assume’ it’s a natural instead of a man-made ocurance.

And the youthful nature of the victims is an indicator. As opposed to the very young and very old who are usually the victims in the seasonal variety.

RE: Cleaning-Woman

On the cleaning-woman thing, I get paid by the word or by the hour; I can make a helluva lot more money in an hour of writing than I pay for an hour of cleaning. — Charlie Martin

Now you’re into obfuscation. How niiiiice…..

Regards,

Chuck(le)
[The field behind rhetoric is oft mined with equivocation....and obfuscation.]

Apr 27, 2009 - 9:11 am 48. Delia:

44. Charlie Martin,

“On the cleaning-woman thing, I get paid by the word or by the hour; I can make a helluva lot more money in an hour of writing than I pay for an hour of cleaning. Do the math.”
~

Wow, dude. I’m IMPRESSED er curious by your wealth. Wanna spread some of that around for us lowly commenter$? I’ve got a paypal account! I’d love to get paid for every word I write. DREAMY!

Apr 27, 2009 - 9:12 am 49. Charlie Martin:

If you’re going to give me a link to something you think worthwhile, maybe you should (1) double check it or (2) quote the salient information.

Chuck, this is the second and third paragraph at the CDC link:

Every year in the United States, on average:

5% to 20% of the population gets the flu;
more than 200,000 people are hospitalized from flu-related complications; and
about 36,000 people die from flu-related causes.

As I say, I don’t think my reading comprehension is the issue.

Apr 27, 2009 - 9:15 am 50. Outbreak "assisted"?:

Something strange is here… Wasn’t swine flu “assisted”?

http://www.dddmag.com/News-Investigational-H1N1-VLP-Vaccine-041609.aspx

http://www.shanghaidaily.com/sp/article/2009/200904/20090426/article_398946.htm

http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:NVAX

Apr 27, 2009 - 9:26 am 51. tanstaafl:

Don’t forget: with the Internet and a 24-hour news cycle, nobody makes money by keeping us calm.

I won’t forget.

This very morning, the President has been yakking about how we’ve “fallen behind” in the halting the microbe department, implying that a paucity of federal funding for scientism (”science”) means that the United States is daft, derelict, lacking &, overall, once again, crappy.

He engages in near criminal demoralization of this country.

Apr 27, 2009 - 9:32 am 52. Erasmus:

51. Scientism? Come on, if conservatives want to stop being viewed as anti-science, then little missives like yours don’t exactly help.

The utter lack of support for and near complete politicization of science in the previous Administrations is pretty well documented (not to mention the ongoing efforts by religious radicals to view or practice science through a Biblical prism). The US has indeed fallen behind the industrialized world in terms of scientific funding and scientific achivements.

Oh, well…you probably didn’t get the memo that the flu epidemic isn’t really about science or disease, it’s all about immigration in PJ land..

Apr 27, 2009 - 9:51 am 53. Chuck Pelto:

TO: Charlie (Colorado) Martin
RE: Thanks….

….for narrowing the search for me. As you commented about house-cleaning, I don’t care to waste valuable time doing code trying to find the proverbial needle in the haystack of words you get at some links.

But still and all, mortality rates are NOT based on hospitalized cases vs. deaths. They’re based on TOTAL cases vs. deaths.

Your stats are, for all intents and purposes, useless. And you’re twisting the data to fit your particular agenda. Otherwise, as I pointed out in item #43, we’d be MUCH more upset about the seasonal flu you alluded to.

But we aren’t….are we….

I’ve worked with my local public health department for the last four years and they don’t talk about ’social distancing’ for seasonal flu.

Regards,

Chuck(le)
[He who is not everyday conquering some fear has not learned the secret of life. -- Ralph Waldo Emerson]

Apr 27, 2009 - 9:53 am 54. Chuck Pelto:

TO: Delia and Ozzie
RE: Heh

Think about it. A perfect virus strain that can wipe out healthy, strong individuals whilst leaving the elderly and young intact but leaving nobody strong enough to fight against a takeover regime. Creepy much? A much too muchhhhhhhhh! YIKES. — Delia

In that sort of scenario, I’d look for the disease impacting a certain set of the population, less than others. Say….Democrats or ‘progressives’. Perhaps because of their getting a vaccine and the rest of the population NOT getting said vaccine. There again, you get into the scenario offered by Tom Clancy in Rainbow 6, where the bad-guys had two vaccines. A good one for themselves and a bad one that spread the disease amongst the rest of the population.

Regards,

Chuck(le)
P.S. Are we living in ANOTHER Clancy novel? 9/11 was based on the last part of his Debt of Honor: a 747 crashing into the Capital during a joint session of Congress……

Apr 27, 2009 - 10:01 am 55. tanstaafl:

“conservatives” aren’t anti science. They’re anti bullsh!t.

A lot (not all) of so called science these days is, in fact, scientism, people with scientific backgrounds angling for grant money will say (and conclude) damn near anything for profit (see the anthropogenic global warming débacle)

If anything going forward is “dependent” on the federal government upping the funding for ’science’, lord knows many of the so called researchers hanging around with outstretched hands don’t have a lot to offer.

Embryonic stem cell research was allegedly being stymied by lack of federal funding under the evil “Bush”. Rarely mentioned is that many private endeavors have simply fallen flat due to the fact that ESSR simply hasn’t borne fruit and has, repeatedly, been shown to be unworkable due to the behavior of those cells in a human body, uncontrolled growth.

And so on.

Apr 27, 2009 - 10:02 am 56. Paula:

I don’t know where y’all are getting your definitions. Pandemic is simply the correct word for what most people call an epidemic.
epidemic- more than the usual number of cases
pandemic- widespread outbreak, world wide

Apr 27, 2009 - 10:06 am 57. tanstaafl:

I recall the hyped up panic over bird flu several years ago, which, transmogrified into a form for human to human transmission, would be far deadlier than the swine flu.

The hype was unbelievable and lasted for a very long time. I believe the federal government spent millions stockpiling Tamiflu (allegedly only effective if given in the first hours of contracting bird flu, or ’swine flu’ for that matter)

Finally, when hell didn’t come to pass, the world wide hype died down. I’m sure the millions of vials of Tamiflu purchased by us taxpayers are out of date now and have been discarded into the water systems.

Apr 27, 2009 - 10:15 am 58. Meryl:

Chuck Pelto:

“Therein lies the REAL reason the government won’t close the borders. It’s because THEY CAN’T and any attempt to try to do so would prove the broadness of the problem.”

That’s a true thing you said there.

Just another national emergency that, I’m sure, Rahm Emanuel will be sure doesn’t go to waste.

None of us were ever going to get out of here alive anyway, so I do actually feel free not to panic.

Think about the amount of faith that is required for leftist statists to keep on believing that “everything is going to be ok” with the bamster.

Encouraging the chaos feeds his methods, and gives them the terminal excuses they need to impose more and more governmental control.

Apr 27, 2009 - 10:27 am 59. Charlie Martin:

Your stats are, for all intents and purposes, useless. And you’re twisting the data to fit your particular agenda. Otherwise, as I pointed out in item #43, we’d be MUCH more upset about the seasonal flu you alluded to.

Chuck, that’s the stat that matches the data we’ve got. Don’t like it, call Mexico.

Apr 27, 2009 - 10:29 am 60. TomF:

It might be a good time to buy stock in Purell.

Apr 27, 2009 - 10:40 am 61. tanstaafl:

I’m suffering from ObamaFlu, the hyped up, daily in your face national (no longer federal) government, apparently determined to alarm us and make us fall, swooning and helpless, forever into the arms of Big Brother.

And, for the record, the federal government also spent millions stockpiling the(super antibiotic) Ciprofloxacin way back when when the anthrax letters were going around.

Those vials probably wound up in the sewer system, too.

There have been problems with those kinds of antibiotics that have a fluorine atom (or something , so if you get prescribed one of those very expensive floxacins (especially levofloxacin) and like your liver, maybe you’d want to opt for something just as effective and much cheaper, one of the old style antibiotics.

Medical opinions R Us

Apr 27, 2009 - 10:45 am 62. Chuck Pelto:

TO: tanstaafl
RE: ‘Hype’?????!?

I recall the hyped up panic over bird flu several years ago — tanstaafl

Since when is a bug with a 50+% mortality rate ‘hype’? The figures don’t lie. That’s how many people the ‘bird flu’ kills if it gets a hold of you. And in one family, it killed EVERYONE, except for the young wife from outside the family. But she was VERY sick. That was an 86% mortality rate.

Consider yourself ‘lucky’ that it didn’t make the ‘jump’ that this reputed ’swine flu’ has.

What did the ‘avian flu’ scare do? It alerted US to the fact that there are bad things that can come out of nowhere to kill a large number of US, if we don’t pay attention.

A good analogy is the Y2K ’scare’. Because of it, we tested and prepared. And as a result, we discovered the things that could make life miserable, if not VERY BAD. Case in point, some major city in California discovered that major sewer systems would fail, during one of the emergency preparedness exercises: raw sewage came up in major parks because computer-controlled valves malfunctioned due to their 2-digit year programming.

I understand that one ‘county’ court in Spain lost all of its legal data. Probably because they had pooh-poohed Y2K.

The bottom line is that the whole world struggled with Y2K and, as a result, the whole world was ready for it.

The same scenario applies to any group that takes ‘Bird Flu’ seriously. We’ll be better prepared than those who didn’t pay attention.

Or is it that you think that our great medical institutions can solve any problem with the snap of their fingers?

I know better…..

Regards,

Chuck(le)
[Chance favors the prepared mind.....]

Apr 27, 2009 - 10:50 am 63. Moogie:

1. I love the debate between the Charlies (Chuck and Charlie) and that the author of this piece responds to the comments.

2. This is a perfect opportunity for me to stand on my soap box and let everyone know there is no such thing as “the stomach flu.” Influenza is a viral infection of the respiratory system, not the gastrointestinal system. Just because you puke it does not mean you have the flu. If you’re throwing up and have diarrea, chances are you have some form of gastroenteritis.

3. I agree with Charlie: stop panicking! Wash your hands, get on with life, then wash your hands again. And for cripes sake, stay home from work or school if you’re sick! You aren’t that irreplaceable.

4. Screw the stats – there are usually extenuating factors that don’t show up in stats. I’ll start respecting the work of the CDC and WHO when they start acting like actual scientists and physicians rather than lobbyists.

Apr 27, 2009 - 10:58 am 64. Chuck Pelto:

P.S. About Y2K…..

I was working in a Fortune 100 company at the time. Managing a computer lab. We were using Macintoshes. We had NO PROBLEMO with Y2K, based on our testing of all systems prior to the arrival of the New Year.

Indeed, we were having a party in Denver on New Years Eve, drinking champagne, watching The Strange Case of the End of Civilization as We Know It and listening to Tonio K songs. Special emphasis on Ballad of the Night the Clocks All Quit (and the Government Failed).

A fine time was had by all. Especially me, as I knew the computers would not fail…..

Apr 27, 2009 - 11:06 am 65. tanstaafl:

Consider yourself ‘lucky’ that it didn’t make the ‘jump’ that this reputed ’swine flu’ has.

The hype was over the avian jump, which didn’t happen. It was pretty extreme, I recall hearing scientists go on about the impending doom, at great length.

I’m not against understanding the potential deadliness of avian flu, I’m against hype.

I’ll have to look into whether swine belongs in the same category as avian (in terms of making a “jump”)

My understanding of Y2K is not that preparedness staved it off, but that it was vastly over-hyped for a very long time and those holding their breaths at the coming of the new millennium realized how grossly it had been hyper-exaggerated.

Apr 27, 2009 - 11:07 am 66. Chuck Pelto:

TO: Charlie (Colorado) Maring
RE: Bogus Arg, That

Chuck, that’s the stat that matches the data we’ve got. Don’t like it, call Mexico. — Charlie Martin

Those ’stats’ you cite don’t explain away why we don’t declare a national emergency every Fall for seasonal flu. 18% mortality rate, based on YOUR ‘math’….and you say you work with computers??!?!?….is 9 times GREATER than the mortality from the swine flu pandemic of 1918.

You don’t like ‘reality’? Sounds like a personal problem.

Regards,

Chuck(le)
[Figures don't lie, but liars (or people with poor math skills) figure.]

Apr 27, 2009 - 11:11 am 67. AThinkingPerson:

This is all really pretty frightening. Anyone else notice that the Secretary of Homeland Security is handling all of this since Carter II has failed to fill the director of the CDC position? So not only can our favorite baffoon Janet N. make a mess of the Homeland Security Dept. by elevating Americans to terrorist status, she can now tell us how to save ourselves in the event of a pandemic. I’m not feeling very safe and secure. Anyone else?

Apr 27, 2009 - 11:22 am 68. robotech master:

To 62. Chuck Pelto

I think what tanstaafl is trying to say is that bird flu like so many other “OMG the fricking world is about to end” never occur and much of their kill rate is due to. 1. poor medical care 2. No medical care 3. ppl not seeking medical care 4. ppl not healthy to begin with.

Even with a 50% kill rate in many of these place thats not “huge” due to other factors. One can easily argue that any decent medical would reduce the kill rate by half or more and as you get better and better medical care the rate reduces more and more. It is very unlikely that you’d see a 50% kill rate in the US even if they sprayed bird flu from crop dusters over major cities in the US.

Until I see figures where ppl were mass flooding hospitals(real hospitals not some 3rd world goat clinic) and dieing in droves then maybe we got something to worry about…. however once again sealing the border would fix that problem real quick like.

The bottom line is we do need to prepare but if the government refuses to shut the border which is the easiest fix for preventing a massive spread…. one must prepare on an individual level and in which basically food and water to last 3-4 weeks… standard stuff that most ppl should be doing anyway just in case of anything.

Apr 27, 2009 - 11:31 am 69. Charlie Martin:

2. This is a perfect opportunity for me to stand on my soap box and let everyone know there is no such thing as “the stomach flu.” Influenza is a viral infection of the respiratory system, not the gastrointestinal system.

Word.

Apr 27, 2009 - 11:36 am 70. WAHWAHWAH:

I may be wrong, but didn’t a couple from Kansas (aged 25-45) have this flu after a trip to Mexico? They both recovered. On a side note, what about the parents of the kids in St Francis Prep in NY, they would be in that age group. Are any of them sick and dying? The Spanish Influenza took place during WW1, alot of the deaths were soldiers. How healthy could they have been out in the field?

Apr 27, 2009 - 11:41 am 71. Charlie Martin:

Those ’stats’ you cite don’t explain away why we don’t declare a national emergency every Fall for seasonal flu.

Actually, Chuck, that would be my point. The panic over this flu is being spread for no reason; we don’t have any data yet that suggests this really is much more risky than other flu viruses. The fact that it’s starting this early in the year, is an H1N1 that may have a high morbidity peak in the middle years like Spanish flu did, and is apparently pretty communicable do justify watching it more closely, but it’s the way we reward panic-mongering that’s responsible for the panic, not realistic fears.

The facts are that lots of people get flu in the US every year; a small proportion of them are admitted to hospital every year for complications of the flu; and of people who are admitted to hospital for flu complications, about 18 percent die.

What we know in Mexico is that a small number of people have come down with a serious enough flu that it was noticed and the strain was identified, of whom certainly some of them have been hospitalized; of that number, about 6 percent die. The implication is that we have no statistical reason to think this flu is really worse than the usual, although we have some other reasons to be cautious about it. We also know that before it had even been identified as worrisome, it was already over the borders and on several continents, and we know that flu isn’t spread only by person to person contact. So, as WHO and CDC and others have pointed out, isolating it isn’t an option: it wouldn’t work, and it would impose dramatic costs.

And we’ve learned that you don’t read very closely and don’t have a lot of rhetorical tools to try before you’re down to ad hominem and insults.

Apr 27, 2009 - 11:54 am 72. tanstaafl:

Much of the kill rate in avian flu, also, was/is a function of individuals living in close proximity to birds, esp. chickens, in close quarters in highly concentrated populations. Some of the victims, as I recall, children who played with infected chickens, some who slaughtered infected chickens.

The slaughtering of some bird populations, wild and domestic (e.g. in China) known infected or not, was of rather unbelievable proportions.

Just want to keep perspective on a planet that is getting dumb enough that every day, the daily wave of panic* is taken up and shouted from the rooftops.

*until it gets replaced with the new panic du jour

And Ebola is unleashed as a function of African habits of communal handwashing at funerals (truth, not my opinion) and destruction of native fauna (my opinion).

(adios for the nonce)

Apr 27, 2009 - 11:57 am 73. Charlie Martin:

Oh, and moogie, thanks; I kind of figure that if my readers are interested enough to comment, I’m interested enough to reply. Unlike Orin Kerr, say, who just banned me at Volokh for catching him in errors and personal attacks on his commenters.

Apr 27, 2009 - 11:57 am 74. tanstaafl:

fauna (my opinion)

flora, trees, grasslands etc.

Apr 27, 2009 - 12:00 pm 75. Dracul Vlad:

Re: “P.S. Birds don’t, generally, cough in your face and make you deathly sick by doing so…..” Very true. However they do poop all over everything. Said poo is then ground to powder and spread about by traffic and wind. Look at the paths of migratory waterfowl compared with most flu outbreaks.

Apr 27, 2009 - 12:10 pm 76. robotech master:

To 75. Dracul Vlad

While that is true bird poop has a host of its own stuff in it… some of which is as contagious and I believe their is 1 far more contagious then the flu. You don’t see everyone in a panic about birds now…. adding another to the mix isn’t the end of the world. Plus be a great excuse to kill all the geese that really need a good killing.

Apr 27, 2009 - 12:37 pm 77. Erasmus:

Just for giggles, have any of you actually worked through the logistics of “sealing the border”. Give us the number of people that you would need for this. Give us the estimated cost of a permanent military presence along hundreds of miles our Southern border. What would be the rules of engagement? Would it be “arrest and detain” or would we start shooting at people? What steps would we take to make sure our troops don’t acidentally breach the Mexican border, which would cause a major international incident.

As a sidenote, while we’re “sealing the border”, would you encourage the US government to immediately deport any Cuban who washes up in Miami (as opposed to our current policy of fast tracking citizenship for those “illegal immigrants”)

The point is that it’s incredibly easy to fling slogans around and whip up hysteria and fear with people, it’s a whole other thing to actually think about these sort of details.

Apr 27, 2009 - 1:05 pm 78. Chuck Pelto:

TO: tanstaafl
RE: Hype, Anyone?

The hype was over the avian jump, which didn’t happen. It was pretty extreme, I recall hearing scientists go on about the impending doom, at great length. — tanstaafl

Some day….something going to happen that will rival the Black Death. It could be bird flu. It could be a form of ebola that can ‘hack it’ in temperate climates and survive long enough to be spread by coughing. [Note: Maybe you ought to watch Outbreak again.]

It’s like that business about some big chunk of rock or ice falling out of the sky….

The Big Rock cometh! — some bumper-sticker I saw once.

It’s only a matter of time…..and unpreparedness.

As for the ‘hype’, well….all I can say is one-man’s ‘hype’ is another man’s ‘prophecy’.

Personally? I don’t tend towards ‘panic’ just because I see there’s a new bug on the loose. But I do pay attention, if I get recurring reports that corroborate each other. Like I’ve been getting from Drudge….and other sources, like FINALLY, my local health department.

Regards,

Chuck(le)
[Don't Panic -- Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy]

Apr 27, 2009 - 1:17 pm 79. GlobalObserver:

I think it is pretty obvious that Flying Pigs are responsible for the Swine Flew pandemic.

Apr 27, 2009 - 1:24 pm 80. Chuck Pelto:

TO: Dracul Vlad & robotech master
RE: Of Bird Poop & Feather Beds

I’m very familiar with the potential for contracting Psittacosis, Cryptococcosis and/or Histoplasmosis from pigeon poop.

This old (1901, 4-level, three-wyth brick) house we live in is ‘invested’ by them. I’ve often wondered about capturing some and beginning to raise them for dinner and such. But the distaff won’t have it.

As a result of the limited success in stopping their hot-nest roosting, we’ve got ALL the guano we can handle…safely. Whenever I have to go under the back deck to do some sprinkler system repair, I wear a mask because of the droppings there are there.

RE: Kill the Geese

….a great excuse to kill all the geese that really need a good killing. — robotech master

Goose is too greasy. But it IS tasty.

Regards,

Chuck(le)
[Quill: An instrument of torture yielded by a goose and wielded by an ass.]

Apr 27, 2009 - 1:25 pm 81. JED:

#42 Chuck Pelto
Sorry not to get back to you, but the day job is necessary. The reference came from discussions years ago when the bird flu was first on the news. I would like to quote a verbatim CDC report or attach a link, but my research time is limited today.
If you look again at 49 Charlie Martin he quotes CDC as compiling 36,000 deaths by complications and flu related causes. In pathology, any of these respiratory viruses compromise the immune system by way of the lungs. Commonly medicos give antibiotics as a prophylactic for the flu to guard against secondary infections. In 1918, there were no anti-biotics beyond some sulfa compounds. Compresses and laudium would comfort but not cure the variety of pneumonia producing viruses and bacteria. Respiratory distress is the leading killer. Rapidly mutating viruses are nothing to sneeze at.

Apr 27, 2009 - 1:30 pm 82. Moogie:

#65 tanstaafl: “I’m not against understanding the potential deadliness of avian flu, I’m against hype.”

This is exactly the point I think Mr. Martin is trying to grind home. DO, by all means, take this virus seriously. DON’T, however, yell “fire!” when there isn’t enough evidence of a fire yet.

As an example of the persnickitiness of viral infections, I’ll relate this little story: when my son was one year old, he contracted a nasty little virus called RSV. He caught it while in the hospital. He already had serious survival challenges at the time (a tracheostomy, gastrostomy, underdeveloped respiratory system). He was very sick. Other babies in the PICU were sick with RSV as well, and I know of at least one who died.

Miraculously, my son survived. We were told his lungs would bear the scar tissue for the rest of his life, but that he would not contract RSV again (like chicken pox). HA! One year later, he got RSV again. He was hospitalized and treated with intravenous steroids and a non-stop nebulizer treatment, and once again, he miraculously recovered.

He really should have been one of those death statistics, not just once, but twice. This is why I don’t take those raw numbers too seriously. Extenuating circumstances.

DO compare the real data, including all circumstances around each death, with similarities found in deaths caused by other, more common flu strains.

I’m sure it’s a lot more fun to sit and type up a story with all kinds of nifty little dire scenarios, as opposed to a simple “This is a nasty flu. Wash your hands and stay away from people who are sick, and stay away from people if you are sick” message.

Apr 27, 2009 - 1:31 pm 83. Moogie:

#73 Charlie Martin: You’re welcome!

Apr 27, 2009 - 1:34 pm 84. Chuck Pelto:

TO: Charlie (Colorado) Martin
RE: Not Really

Actually, Chuck, that would be my point. — Charlie Martin

Why?

Because you have bad math skills. Probably combined with bad cognition.

RE: The ‘Panic’

The panic over this flu is being spread for no reason — Charlie Martin

There IS no ‘panic’, at least here. Traffic on the streets is ‘normal’. There are not crowds at the grocery stores or pharmacies buying food and face masks. But then again, I moved away from a metroplex six years ago because I felt life there was (1) too hectic and (2) safer in a smaller community.

I know for a fact that al Qaeda will probably not target my community for a ‘cosmic flash bulb’ spectacular. Likewise, if things DO fall apart, I can expect my neighbors and associates to be a bit more interested in collective security than the total strangers who lived next door to me in Denver would have been.

When’s the last time you read Lucifer’s Hammer, anyway.

RE: Mortal Failure with Mortality Rates

The implication is that we have no statistical reason to think this flu is really worse than the usual, although we have some other reasons to be cautious about it. — Charlie Martin

The fact is that the Swine Flu pandemic of 1918 killed 18 million people around the world. Probably more. And it had a mere 2-3% mortality rate.

So far THIS flu, according to reports, has a 6% mortality rate.

You seem to have a severe cognitive dissonance problem, compadre. Maybe YOU should check into that facility you recommended to me some time back. After all…..you’re MUCH closer to it than I.

Regards,

Chuck(le)
[Remember this, foolish mortals, when ye stare headlong into the mind-paralyzing void, the inky black nothingness of existence, the hellish yawning maw of the abyss -- it's pretty damn dark, so give your eyes a few minutes to adjust.]

Apr 27, 2009 - 1:35 pm 85. Chuck Pelto:

TO: JED
RE: Day Job

Understood. Not a problem. I’ve got time. As we all do….for the moment…..

RE: The Pneumonia Factor

I suspect that MAYBE the fluid-filled lungs was a function of this theory of the body’s over-reaction. Something to do with something called “cytokine storm”. It’s an interesting theory. And not too far afield. I’m familiar with aniphalactic reactions. We tested them in microbio lab. Not very pretty.

It might well have been a factor in the mortality rate in 1918. Now, unfortunately, we may have a chance prove the theory to be fact.

Regards,

Chuck(le)
[Don't Panic.....But do be observant.]

Apr 27, 2009 - 1:43 pm 86. Chuck Pelto:

TO: All
RE: A Question of Psychology

How many of those who are suggesting that the ‘media’, i.e., ABC, NBC, NYT, Drudge Report, etc., is trying to ‘panic’ US are REALLY prepared for ’social distancing’ as I understand the public health departments are talking about?

‘Social Distancing’ is a regime of imposed semi-quarantine in which everyone who is not employed in an essential services, e.g., food-pharmacological distribution, government, medical, utilities, emergency, etc., is required to STAY AT HOME for TWO-TO-THREE WEEKS at a time, with a possibility of TWO-TO-FOUR times.

Charlie (Colorado) Martin….

Do you have a years supply of food immediately available to you? More? Less?

I’m beginning to wonder if the people who are saying someone is trying to ‘panic’ US are REALLY prepared. And if not, are they doing a more pro-active approach to ‘whistling past the graveyard’?

Could they be on the very verge of ‘panic’ and hoping that if they argue against the people reporting the possibility of impending disaster, the problem will go away?

Where’s Dr. Helen??!?!??!

Regards,

Chuck(le)
P.S. Remember….

….the Big Rock cometh!

We just don’t know exactly when…..for the moment…..

Apr 27, 2009 - 1:51 pm 87. Chuck Pelto:

TO: Moogie
RE: The Problem Is….

Wash your hands and stay away from people who are sick, and stay away from people if you are sick” message. — Moogie

…it’s a ‘work-a-day’ world. You don’t go to work. You don’t get paid. Then, how are you going to pay your bills?

Therefore, most people will likely go in and work for the five days they are contagious but not feeling ‘too bad’ to work. Thusly ’sharing the joy’…..

Regards,

Chuck(le)
[Always glad to share their ignorance - They've got plenty.]

Apr 27, 2009 - 2:01 pm 88. Kevin:

I wonder how many “cases” are going to pop up and slow down treatment for those who do have the virus? I don’t know about the rest of the world, but I do know in the States we seem to have elevated hypochondria to a whole new level.

Apr 27, 2009 - 2:11 pm 89. Chuck Pelto:

TO: All
RE: About Being Prepared

If this DOES ‘go ballistic’ here are some thoughts for Moogie, et al.

• Avoid going out, if at all possible.
• If you don’t feel ‘good’. Don’t go out at all. Even to work.
• If you have to go out, especially to work, bring the follwoing with you:
– Lysol
– Hand lotion, to work against the adverse affects of Lysol
– A face mask
– Shooter’s glasses (more on that later)

You don’t have to wear or use them. But it’s a good idea to ‘be prepared’. Because if you hear someone coughing a lung out, you could be in the affected area. Or if you hear that the bug is in your state, you don’t really know if you’re going to bump into it in the next few minutes.

About the googles…that’s NOT “Google”, they’re protective eye-wear.

There’s a direct connection between the eyes and the nose. It’s called the tear duct.

Lysozyme, an enzyme found in tears that protects the eyes against infection, is not very effective against virus particles. Works GREAT on gram-positive bacteria. But not so good against gram-negative bacteria or virons.

Scenario:

Someone with a virus infection coughs or sneezes near you while you’re facing them. Chances are your eyes could catch a virus-rich droplet. The virus, not suceptable to the lysozyme will go to the tear duct and into your nose, where you’ll inhale it into your lungs. Thusly you become ‘infected’.

Good wrap-around shooters glasses will help prevent that particular vector of infection.

Just a word to the wise. Don’t think only of face masks.

RE: Face Masks

As I said earlier, if this does ‘go ballistic’, pre-fabricated, disposable face masks may be hard to find after the panic-rush. But there is a solution.

Make your own!

Good twill fabric or a doubled muslin makes a similar barrier. You can carve such out of an old sheet. Make your own mask or make a ’sexy’ bandanna. It’s re-usable. You can be creative, if you have good fabric available.

Make several so that you can wash one and let it dry while you’re using another.

RE: Additionally…..

….learn how to cough properly.

Cover your mouth. But NOT with your hands. You use your hands to open doors and such. That spreads germs and viral particles for other to become infected. If you have to cough, cough into the crook of your arm on the inside of the elbow.

….using a public restroom.

Wash your hands thoroughly. About 30 seconds with soap, preferably. But it’s the mechanical action of washing that removes germs and virons from the hands. The soap helps, but it is not absolutely essential.

When you reach for the door handle, USE A PAPER TOWEL. And throw the towel into a waste-disposal receptecal when you’ve opened the door. All too many people are, unfortunately, ‘ignorant pigs’ about hygiene. After cleaning yourself, you don’t want their bad habits to re-expose you.

…..seeing someone cough.

If they don’t use the technique described above to cough…REBUKE THEM. Tell them they are threat to everyone around them. And make yourself perfectly clear to them and everyone around you.

We had some cases of the new ‘improved’ TB here a while back. I was out in public and some guy was coughing up a lung near me. I rebuked him. He said he didn’t have TB. I said, “How the hell do I know that and how can you be so sure?” He shut up…..

Regards,

Chuck(le)
P.S. I wonder what it would take for Charlie and some others around here to recognize that this bug HAD ‘gone ballistic’?

And, furthermore, would they retract all their comments here?

[Crow is a dish best eaten while it is 'fresh'.]

P.S. According to the Gastronomique, crow isn’t worth eating in the first place. Maybe that’s why they are so prolific…..nothing with a sense of ‘good taste’ will eat them……

Apr 27, 2009 - 3:12 pm 90. tanstaafl:

Matt Drudge has a penchant for whipping up hysteria in his choice of stories.

Although I like the site & follow some interesting links (a lot of the 2-headed cat type stories should be missed), Drudge seems to set get off on scooping the latest fiasco (he, reportedly, broke the Monica Lewinsky story) and setting the bar for much of what gets followed on network news.

I’d say he indulges in both responsible and irresponsible journalism.

Apr 27, 2009 - 3:36 pm 91. Chuck Pelto:

TO: tanstaafl
RE: Drudge

“Matt Drudge has a penchant for whipping up hysteria in his choice of stories.” — tanstaafl

Yeah. Like with breaking the Monica Lewinsky ‘BJ’ story.

Hysterical!

Regards,

Chuck(le)
P.S. How much food do YOU have in your on-hand vicinity?

Apr 27, 2009 - 3:53 pm 92. Chuck Pelto:

P.P.S. About Monica Lewinsky….

….his report about her WAS accurate. She even has the DNA-stained dress to prove it.

Apr 27, 2009 - 3:55 pm 93. Charlie Martin:

Nice technical blog piece here.

Chuck baby, I’m doing the math. You do the math and get back to me.

Apr 27, 2009 - 4:15 pm 94. Chuck Pelto:

TO: Charlie (Colorado) Martin
RE: Doing the Math

Show US the ‘math’ you base your 18% on. I mean line-by-line. What is your divisor? What is dividend? That you get to 18%.

And again, I challenge you to prove that the number of people “hospitalized” is the true dividend of YOUR ‘math’. I’ve got a place I can send you that makes you either ‘ignorant’ for a computer ’scientist’ or a ‘liar’….if you use the “hospitalized” as the dividend.

Regards,

Chuck(le)
[The Truth will out....]

Apr 27, 2009 - 4:41 pm 95. Chuck Pelto:

TO: Charlie (Colorado) Martin
RE: Heh

Another BOGUS link.

I was there earlier today. As ‘lead there’ by Instapundit’s linkage.

And when TypePad wanted me to open myself to all KINDS of unsolicited mail, I told them to go to hell.

Still looking for your ‘math’.

Regards,

Chuck(le)
P.S. I can’t help it if you allow yourself to be a ‘tool’ for people trying to make a ‘profit’……

And here you were trying to set yourself aside from such…..

Apr 27, 2009 - 4:56 pm 96. Charlie Martin:

Chuck, this is asinine in the extreme. CDC link is above. You couldn’t read it the first time, so I quoted the text. “more than 200,000 people are hospitalized from flu-related complications”. And “about 36,000 people die from flu-related causes.”

36000/200000 = 0.18.

Call me a liar if you like, but this is 4th grade math at best. The statistical argument, I’ll grant, is a little tougher: if you really insist, I’ll run through it, discussion what a “null hypothesis” is, and why with 20 cases we can’t assume anything statistically if there has been no death so far instead of 1 and 2/10ths.

You’re simply making a fool of yourself, apparently because you aren’t reading very well. Unless you really can’t manage to divige 38 into 200 and get 0.18.

You’re right, it was wrong of me to suggest, years ago, that a visit to the Colorado State Hospital might be in order. (Whatever they call it now.) I apologize. But after all the times you’ve been banned from as many sites as you’ve been banned, are you really getting what you want out of this kind of argument?

Apr 27, 2009 - 5:06 pm 97. tanstaafl:

Chuck(le), scooping Monica was obviously big. I didn’t mean to imply otherwise.

The story did, however, wind up obsessing a president (and a population) for a very long time. Some said military actions were undertaken by BC to distract from Monicagate. Some say Barack & Napolitano would dearly love to distract from Touturegate & JanetDHSreportgate and welcome the distraction of swine flu about which to bloviate.

Woodward & Bernstein (esp. Woodward) seem to have spent many years in the mental mode of repeating their Watergate scoop.

I’ve done a little math, too, and 40 cases of swine flu, most recovering, 1 hospitalization, some 28 of the 40 from one school & an Easter week trip to Cancun. And the non swine flu reportedly kills 36,000 in this country/year.

It seems a bit early to be shrieking pandemic, and, reportedly from the CDC, there is no current effective vaccine against this strain. The trouble with flu shots in general is that this year’s shot may be for last year’s version of the flu.

During Aviangate, the effectiveness of Tamiflu and the other main commercial antiviral were much debated. Some medical people treating victims in the far east said Tamiflu was worthless, and yet, it’s being hyped as best (only) line of defense against swine.

Apr 27, 2009 - 5:10 pm 98. Charlie Martin:

Slate has a pretty decent article up. They missed the null hypothesis point though.

Apr 27, 2009 - 7:02 pm 99. Charlie Martin:

And when TypePad wanted me to open myself to all KINDS of unsolicited mail, I told them to go to hell.

Man, what are you talking about? here’s the link:

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/keyfacts.htm

No typepad, nothing. Static link to a mainly static HTML page.

Apr 27, 2009 - 7:24 pm 100. Moogie:

Thank you, Charlie Martin, for doing that 4th grade math for me. This recipient of our glorious public education system has to rely on others of numerical skill to divine the answers to life’s puzzling equations.

All numbers and stats aside (and correct me if I’m wrong) – the moral of the story is this: the flu is a nasty virus. It makes you sick. You feel like crap when you have it. If you don’t take it seriously enough when you have it, you might end up dead.

We all agree on that, right?

To avoid the flu, BE CLEAN. Chuck(le) is right about the hand washing: it’s actually friction that kills the germs. Sing the “Happy Birthday” song when you start washing your hands (aloud if you’re a good singer; in your head if you aren’t). By the time you finish the song, you will have invested about 30 seconds of your time into quite possibly keeping you safe from illness.

Most importantly: don’t let the panicmongers fuel fear. Even my 20 year old son (yes, the one I wrote about earlier) is saying he’s sick of the panic and B.S. when there isn’t enough data yet to make a sound determination that we have a reason to panic about the swine flu.

I find it highly ironic that we have been bitching about all of the pork in the bills being passed by congress, and lo! It’s pork on the menu again.

Apr 27, 2009 - 7:52 pm 101. Ellen K:

As someone who lives in a border state with lots of Mexican nationals traveling through and a teacher who deals with kids who are germ factories in themselves, indulge my thoughts just a minute:
First of all, why didn’t the CDC issue the warnings around 50 deaths ago? Or would that have embarrassed the President who was in Mexico City at that time? If they chose keeping a political moment alive over the safety of Americans, then there is some explaining to do.

Secondly, the administration may be deliberately choosing to undercut the severity of the situation because this simply further highlights why the borders must be better controlled. Team Obama doesn’t like that and if he takes any measures to make Mexico accountable, the usual Hispanic PAC’s will come out to remonstrate him.

Third, here in the DFW area-heck in all of the border states for that matter-there are many service companies that hire workers with very little due diligence. These workers are sometimes Hispanic. And sometimes they go home for holidays. Given the origination point of this outbreak, don’t you think it would be prudent to take a survey and see who visited home in say, the last six weeks? And if you don’t think that’s important, consider this-companies like Aramark and others work in food services and custodial work in hospitals, businesses and public schools.

Finally, while this may not be the pandemic per se, it could be a type of trial. The nature of the virus is somewhat suspicious. You would have to look long and hard to find a virus that has bird, human and swine flu attributes. What worries me is that this is a dry run for some other event. And if that’s the case, it’s been proven that our borders are porous, that distribution is viable and that we are a target.

You can downplay this if you want, but if Team Obama doesn’t learn from incidents such as this, then we will be attacked again. What better time than now to make sure we are doing all we can. Except of course, that the politicians won’t let us….

Apr 27, 2009 - 9:05 pm 102. e:

So I read an article that the swine flu also has bird and human flu virus parts. It appears we misnamed it. Its not the pig flu,

its Manbirdpig!

Apr 27, 2009 - 9:24 pm 103. The Historian:

SWINE FLU OR SMALLPOX
Are we anywhere near ready?

http://greensrealworld.blogspot.com/2009/01/al-qaeda-obama-bio-terror.html

Apr 27, 2009 - 9:26 pm 104. andrewhunter:

On this ‘epidemic’; this will be used to do what all the other bad news put out complicit with the nobama administration; generate fear and a demand that the government do something.

In our home, we have three things that we use to kill colds or flu overnight. If someone wanted to assume responsibility for their own health and get off the teats of the gov’t and media, they could defeat any number of health scourges, on their own.

Apr 27, 2009 - 10:40 pm 105. Cybergeezer:

The biggest threat to the U.S. is Congress itself. Inoculations against incompetence and ignorance would wipe out most of D.C.
What a refreshing thought!

Apr 28, 2009 - 6:23 am 106. Chuck Pelto:

TO: Charlie (Colorado) Marting
RE Asinine?

Chuck, this is asinine in the extreme. — Charlie Martin

What’s ‘asinine’? That I got torqued off at TypePad’s egregious effort to off my e-mail up to any bidder?

Or perhaps my pointing out that your math skills leave something to be desired….for a computer ’scientist’?

And why do I say your math skills are lacking?

Because you can’t seem to grasp the idea that the affected population is LARGER than merely those who were checked into a hospital.

Call me a liar if you like, but this is 4th grade math at best. — Charlie Martin

You could well be a ‘liar’ at the rate you’re going. But you are certainly ignorant. And I’m beginning to suspect you’re rather proud of that.

Regards,

Chuck(le)
P.S. I see you haven’t answered my question about how well prepared you are for something like a pandemic.

Why is that?

But, if I missed your answer to my question, please tell me which item it can be found in….

Apr 28, 2009 - 6:48 am 107. Chuck Pelto:

TO: Moogie
RE: Doing the Math

Thank you, Charlie Martin, for doing that 4th grade math for me. — Moogie

Maybe you should learn a bit more about set-theory.

The point here, which Charlie, and apparently quite a few others—including you—fail to grasp is that the set consists of more than the people hospitalized. It REALLY includes anyone who contracts the disease. Don’t you think?

Regards,

Chuck(le)
[You need not be overly concerned with your difficulties in math; mine are so much greater. -- Albert Einstein]

Apr 28, 2009 - 6:51 am 108. Chuck Pelto:

TO: tanstaafl
RE: [OT] Monica & Stuff

The story did, however, wind up obsessing a president (and a population) for a very long time. Some said military actions were undertaken by BC to distract from Monicagate. — tanstaafl

I’m one of them. It was, in my considered opinion, Wag the Dog, in real life. The day Monica testifies before Congress considering impeachment of the president, the president orders military strikes in Sudan and Afghanistan? Coooommmmme Ooon!

RE: This Flu

I’ve done a little math, too, and 40 cases of swine flu, most recovering, 1 hospitalization, some 28 of the 40 from one school & an Easter week trip to Cancun. And the non swine flu reportedly kills 36,000 in this country/year. — tanstaafl

Yes. Seasonal flu kills tens of thousands every year.

But consider the difference. The seasonal flu kills the very young and the very old, for the most part. This flu kills mostly from the other set, 25-45. There’s something of a difference in that.

Furthermore, as reported today, this flu has a lag-phase of ONLY 24 hours. It’s VERY aggressive compared to seasonal which has a lag-phase of 3-5 days, on average. [Note: That's a good thing, in my opinion. You realize your sick before you have a LOT of time to 'share' the experience.]

As for the mortality rate we’re non-experiencing here in the US, compared to what they’ve got in Mexico City….there’s something VERY ‘odd’ about that….I can’t say what’s causing it. And I’m sure it’s a puzzle that CDC and WHO and other agencies are very interested in.

It could be any of a number of reasons. Mostly having to do with the environment of Mexico City. As I’ve not heard, yet, of deaths outside of that metropolitan area. Maybe it’s the water. Maybe its the air. There IS a lot of smog in that city. We’ll find out in due time.

RE: The Math ‘Problem’

Tell me. What do YOU think is the proper divisor for this problem?

[A] The number of people who are checked into a hospital with the ailment.
[B] The total number of people who contract the ailment.

The dividend is given: the number of dead from the ailment.

RE: The Naming of Names

I tend to agree with the pork growers in saying that this ailment should not be called “swine flu”. No pigs have been found infected by it….yet. Nor any birds….yet. Only humans. And it all started, apparently, in Mexico City.

I recommend calling it MC Flu, for Mexico City Flu.

Indeed, I’ve yet to hear of major outbreaks in other parts of Mexico. Let alone deaths from it.

Regards,

Chuck(le)
[We all labour against our own cure, for death is the cure of all diseases. - Sir Thomas Browne]

Apr 28, 2009 - 7:06 am 109. Chuck Pelto:

TO: All
RE: The Math ‘Problem’

Maybe you doubters of my math or questioners of whose math is better, should check out wikipedia on such topics as “Mortality Rate” and “Case Fatality Rate”. [Note: The latter is a more recent term for that which I learned in my undergrad studies in microbiology.]

It might help in solving the apparent confusion on some peoples’—around here—part.

Regards,

Chuck(le)
P.S. An additional point about Charlie Martin’s shoddy thinking vis-a-vis closing the border.

Earlier, he argued that we can’t effectively keep birds and wild pigs from crossing the border. Therefore, by his ‘logic’ there’s no justification for closing the border.

However, as I pointed out in an earlier comment today, NO BIRDS NOR PIGS have been found infected with the disease. So his arg rings false about closing the border.

In the meantime, the international community, is tightening their borders over the last 24 hours. Just as I suspected they would.

The more this flu spreads the tighter the international borders will become. They will, in my considered opinion, close when fatalities start occurring outside of Mexico.

Let’s hope all the fatalities remain as they are now…..

….in Mexico City. And those becoming fewer every day.

Apr 28, 2009 - 7:15 am 110. Charlie Martin:

The point here, which Charlie, and apparently quite a few others—including you—fail to grasp is that the set consists of more than the people hospitalized. It REALLY includes anyone who contracts the disease. Don’t you think?

Cripes. I hate to encourage you, but Chuck, you’re trying to beat me to death with my own point. Yes indeed, the people who actually contract the disease is a bigger population and real mortality from the flu would be computed based on deaths from flu over the whole infected population. HOWEVER, as I said above in the original article the numbers of sick in Mexico certainly don’t include everyone who has had a case of the gripe, and gotten over it on chicken soup.

But then since we don’t know how many people have the flu and didn’t report it, we can’t compute much with that number.

There are numbers we have that are usable, though. In Mexico, there were 800 reported cases and of those cases 62 deaths. (I’m going to stick to the numbers as they were at first writing, just to avoid confusion.) Those 800 were undoubtedly the sickest of the sick, as I said. So out of the general population of people with a respiratory bug, there were 800 who were sick enough to go to a doctor and who have had flu identified. Out of that 800, 62 have died. leading to an apparent mortality rate of really nearly 8 percent. (62/800=0.78 to two figures.)

In the US, there are about 200,000 people who get sick enough from the flu to be hospitalized, and of those cases, 36,000 deaths. Again, those 200,000 were undoubtedly the sickest of the sick. So out of the general population of people with a respiratory bug, there were 200,000 who were sick enough to be hospitalized and be identified as having been hospitalized for complications of the flu, undoubtedly the sickest of the sick. Out of those 200,000, 36,000 died, leading to an apparent mortality rate of 18 percent. (36,000/200,000=0.18.)

And that’s the point: whether it’s the 6 percent number you’re hyperventilating about, or the 8 percent I got above, the most nearly comparable numbers say that’s low, not high. Thus hyperventilation is unwarranted. Although it is good for a cheap head-rush.

Certainly all these numbers are statistical quantities and subject to sampling error. It could be that the Mexican health system is successfully identifying each and every case of this particular, new, hitherto unseen Influenza A H1N1, so the 800 isn’t the sickest of the sick, and the real mortality rate really is around 7 percent. The probability of that is pretty damn small.

Similarly, it’s possible that of those 36,000 deaths in the US, a substantial number are identified as having died of complications of the flu, but were not hospitalized before dying. The probability of that is also pretty damn small.

So then, let’s just look at this, clearly statistical, inference. We have a null hypothesis: this is Just The Flu, with an overall mortality rate similar to other bad flu. To disprove that null hypothesis, we have to find some way in which the mortality rate of the flu reported in Mexico has been understated by a factor of at least 2 in order to even be comparable to the apparently similar number in the US. For there to be a high probability that it’s actually worse than Just The Flu, the mortality would have to have been understated by more than that, a factor of 3 or 4. (Remember it’s a small population, the variance — the randomness that comes from chance selection — will necessarily be high. Small differences don’t change the probability much.)

In other words, we don’t have much to say that this is anything more or less than bad flu. Panic is unwarranted.

The answer to your first question, what would it take to make me believe? The answer is “evidence”. Show me a real mortality rate that’s statistically distinguishable from the null hypothesis, and I promise I’ll be more worried.

As to the other question, whether I really have a month’s food stashed, the answer is, nope. I also don’t have a fallout shelter — hell, I don’t have a basement — I don’t have the medical kit I used to keep when I was a certified fallout shelter medic, I don’t have a hideout established for the collapse of civilization, and I don’t have any firm plans for what to do with the money should I win the Powerball. I’m sure, if you try, you can think of a whole bunch of other low-probability events I don’t have preparations for.

Apr 28, 2009 - 7:59 am 111. backatcha:

84 says I know for a fact that al Qaeda will probably not target my community for a ‘cosmic flash bulb’ spectacular. Likewise, if things DO fall apart, I can expect my neighbors and associates to be a bit more interested in collective security than the total strangers who lived next door to me in Denver would have been.

You’re the classic victim of terrorism. You’ve completely changed your life. Ran away and hid from the world. Stockpiling saltines and vitamin water. Living in fear. Harboring resentment. Suspicious of everything and everybody. Congratulations! Where you’re concerned the terrorists have won.

Everyone, meet Chuck, victim #1 of Terror’s Second Wave. RIP (Reside In Paranoia) Chuck.

Apr 28, 2009 - 8:14 am 112. Chuck Pelto:

TO: Charlie (Colorado) Martin
RE: Cripes? Indeed!

Cripes. I hate to encourage you, but Chuck, you’re trying to beat me to death with my own point. — Charlie Martin

Here’s it back at you, that you don’t understand the math.

A full-scale pandemic, should it ever come, could be expected to claim the lives of about 2 percent of those infected, or about 2 million Americans. — Article on ‘Worst Case Scenario’

Please notice the use of the term ‘of those infected‘.

In the following paragraph they discuss the 1918 event….

The government estimates that a pandemic like the 1918 Spanish flu would sicken 90 million Americans, or about 30 percent of the population. Of those, nearly 10 million would have to be admitted to hospitals, and nearly 1.5 million would need intensive care. — same article

[Note: Emphasis added for those with difficulty reading/comprehending English.]

Get it? Only 1 in 9 were admitted to hospitals. That’s about 10 million.

But the total population of “sickened’ was 90 million here in the States.

Of those, the estimates are that 500,000 to 675,000 died of that flu. And they call THAT ‘mortality rate’ 2-3%.

If they used YOUR form of ‘math’, it would be 6-7%. Or three times the rate everyone with more than two synapses to rub together would say. And yet, the world recognizes 2-3% as the proper value. And that’s using the number of deaths divided by the number of ’sickened’ people. NOT the number of hospitalized with the ailment.

Hope that helps….but I have my doubts…..

Regards,

Chuck(le)
[Lottery: A tax on people who are bad at math.]

P.S. Do you buy many lottery tickets?

Apr 28, 2009 - 8:33 am 113. Chuck Pelto:

TO: Charlie (Colorado) Martin
RE: Uuuuuhhhhh….

In other words, we don’t have much to say that this is anything more or less than bad flu. Panic is unwarranted. — Charlie Martin

….just in case you haven’t noticed, buckie, I’m not calling for ‘panic’.

I’m just challenging your stupidity vis-a-vis math skills and mortality rates.

You’re using data improperly, compadre. And I’ve pointed it out time and again. But you just don’t care to listen. As if there’s some sort of agenda thing that keeps you from thinking rationally.

Hopefully, you’ll get over it…..SOME day. Preferably soon……

Regards,

Chuck(le)
[Anybody who cannot comprehend mathematics is not fully human. At best he is a tolerable subhuman who has learned to wash, cook food, and not make messes on the couch.]

Apr 28, 2009 - 8:39 am 114. Chuck Pelto:

TO: backatya
RE: Now Fear This~

You’re the classic victim of terrorism. You’ve completely changed your life. Ran away and hid from the world. Stockpiling saltines and vitamin water. Living in fear. — backatya

That’s funny. An airborne-ranger living in ‘fear’.

Regards,

Chuck(le)
[He who is not everyday conquering some fear has not learned the secret of life. -- Ralph Waldo Emerson]

P.S. Did I fail to mention the fact we moved here to help the distaff’s aging parents….one of whom passed away the week before Christmas last? So sorry.

Additionally, we noticed that after moving here our blood-pressure dropped significantly. I suspect it was not having to drive in Denver traffic anymore…..

Apr 28, 2009 - 8:47 am 115. Chuck Pelto:

P.P.S….backatya….

…do YOU live in a major metro area? Or downwind from such?

Just curious…..

Apr 28, 2009 - 9:38 am 116. Delia:

115. Chuck Pelto,

Notice how OOMY went *poof* and up crops the ‘backatcha’ moniker who seems to already have a ‘beef’ with you? Hmmmm. Next backatcha will be targeting me and Bilge again too. ha-ha. So obvious. heh!

While I agree that ‘panic’ is NEVER a good way to react to a bad situation, I also believe in being prepared for the worst. I’m always more than glad/relieved to be proven wrong in a health scare like this but I’m not into taking chances when it comes to life and limb.

Apr 28, 2009 - 10:38 am 117. Charlie Martin:

Chuck, sometime around when I did my doctoral comps, I stopped worrying about people who can’t follow stats.

Apr 28, 2009 - 11:02 am 118. Chuck Pelto:

TO: Delia
RE: [OT] Heh

Notice how OOMY went *poof* and up crops the ‘backatcha’ moniker who seems to already have a ‘beef’ with you? Hmmmm. Next backatcha will be targeting me and Bilge again too. ha-ha. So obvious. heh! — Delia

Good ‘catch’, that. Similar to one I did about David S. and DZunga some weeks back.

You too would make a good intel-puke in some combat-oriented Army formation.

RE: This ‘Bug’

It certainly is interesting that the only deaths I’ve seen so far are in Mexico City itself.

Even the REPORT of the supposed ‘ground zero’ area, some town named LA GLORIA, Mexico, had 450 sick in a population of 3000. And NO DEATHS!!!!?!

Meanwhile, Mexico City has 150 and counting.

This is a VERY ODD ‘bug’. Even Avian Flu has a standard mortality rate across the face of planet Earth. Why is Mexico City vis-a-vis this ‘MC Flu’ bug so ‘pickie’ regarding who it kills?

RE: Panic

I think there is a possible connection between Charlie’s panic over ‘panic’ and his unpreparedness for a possible disaster.

I think it would make an interesting dissertation for some aspiring psychologist: How Being Unprepared for Disaster Inspires ‘Panic’.

Regards,

Chuck(le)
[Being prepared means never having to say, "PANIC!" -- CBPelto]

P.S. Thanks for the inspiration of a new tag-line…..

Apr 28, 2009 - 11:04 am 119. Delia:

Ut oh! UPDATE: Two deaths now linked to the swine flu in LA…

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2009/04/two-los-angeles-county-deaths-possibly-related-to-swine-flu-coroner-says.html

…not confirmed yet though.

118. Chuck Pelto,

Yeah, I guess OOMO got his tranny panties in a twist.

This oink-chirp-human ‘bug’ definitely has me a teensy spooked. The people who make “Purell” Hand Sanitizers are going to make a fortune!

Apr 28, 2009 - 11:24 am 120. Chuck Pelto:

TO: Charlie (Colorado) Martin
RE: Heh

Chuck, sometime around when I did my doctoral comps, I stopped worrying about people who can’t follow stats. — Charlie Martin

That’s pretty obvious from my perspective.

And from the psychological perspective, your ‘position’ is best described as ‘projection’.

Regards,

Chuck(le)
P.S. You’ve STILL not answered my question. Why is that?

Apr 28, 2009 - 11:27 am 121. Chuck Pelto:

TO: Delia, et al.
RE: Awwww, Shucks!

Two deaths now linked to the swine flu in LA… — Delia, citing article in LAT

And I was SOOOOOO hopeful that it was something to do with Mexico City (MC).

Okay. Keep cool, calm and collected. And lets see what the ‘report’ is.

Interesting to note that the ages of the supposed victims as reported in the article you provided fall within the reports coming out of MC: 25-45 years of age.

Regards,

Chuck(le)
P.S. Hey? Charlie….how old are you, anyway?

Apr 28, 2009 - 11:34 am 122. Chuck Pelto:

TO: Delia, et al.
RE: Which Reminds Me…..

The people who make “Purell” Hand Sanitizers are going to make a fortune! — Delia

….I need to check in with the local public health department and see what THEY are saying will (1) kill the virus and (2) how long the virus can survive outside of a human body.

Personally? I’ve always been a fan of Lysol. But I’m not certain it’s effective against this particular bug.

Regards,

Chuck(le)
[To truly love another, you must first love yourself. And it wouldn't kill you to wash your hands in between either.]

Apr 28, 2009 - 11:40 am 123. Chuck Pelto:

P.S. Gotta alert my daughters. The eldest of which is ‘in the window’…..

Apr 28, 2009 - 11:47 am 124. Delia:

121. Chuck Pelto

“And I was SOOOOOO hopeful that it was something to do with Mexico City”
~

I know! This is not good at all. In this day and age of cancer, heart-disease, aids etc. and a damned FLU virus kills people of all things?! Craaaaaaaazy!

Your advice about coughing into the crook of your inner elbow was right on the moula. Hopefully people will actually HEED that advice. Of course, the people that are probably spreading this crap around are the same slovenly idiots who don’t wash their hands after going to the toilet. ICK.

Apr 28, 2009 - 11:51 am 125. Delia:

123. Chuck Pelto,

I’m in that unfortunate ‘window’ too.

I wrote something else to you here but it must have gotten moderated out?

Definitely warn your daughters! My daughter and I are prime candidates for this ‘bug’. I’m wondering how soon this will reach WA state since we are close to Cali? UGHHHH!

Apr 28, 2009 - 12:16 pm 126. Chuck Pelto:

TO: Delia, et al.
RE: ‘Gear Up!’

My daughter and I are prime candidates for this ‘bug’. I’m wondering how soon this will reach WA state since we are close to Cali? UGHHHH! — Delia

My eldest daughter lives on an island off the mouth of Puget.

My recommendation, considering that CDC has admitted that they have nothing to combat this but, is to look into homeopathy.

I’ve been involved with it for the last 20+ years. And I’ve found it VERY effective in dealing with viral infections and other ailment, including ‘gout’, a birthday gift from my Father.

I recommend two books for your consideration….

Homeopathic Medicine at Home by Panos MD, a renegade doctor. The charts are VERY useful in identifying the ailment and the proper materia medica to take for it.

….and….

Materia Medica.

The latter is a medical ‘tome’.

If I can’t find the answer in the first, I turn to the second.

As I understand it, during the pandemic of 1918, 90% of the patients at risk that were treated by practicing homoepaths—they WERE about before the AMA squelched them—survived. While 90% of those treated by allopaths, think AMA, didn’t. Afterwards, the AMA started a state-level campaign to require ALL practicioners of medicine MUST be licensed by a state board. Guess how the boards were populated by. Three guesses….first two don’t count.

Meanwhile homeopathy is practiced at large in Europe.

If this bug does go ballistic, it will be interesting to evaluate the efficacy of the various forms of ‘medicine’—here and abroad—in dealing with it.

As I understand it aconite, byronia and gelsenium were found to be the most commonly recommended materia medica to take. But REMEMBER….it all depends on the symptoms being experienced by the afflicted. This is not your ’standard’ run-of-the-mill AMA lowest-common-denominator approach to medicine. You need to be very much aware of the specific symptoms the individual is experiencing.

Case in point….anecdotal evidence of my own experience…..

So I have gout. Something my Father, God rest his soul, gave me as a birthday ‘gift’. This gout is brought on by stress. My Father’s worst attack was the day he retired from the Air Force.

My worst attacks have, likewise, been brought on by stress.

I’ve had three acute attacks in the last 6 years.

The first was the day I moved to this town. The second was several days after some character who was the ‘president’ of an organization I belong to tried to assault me during the conduct of a meeting of the Board of Directors of that organization and I objected to his use of foul language while conducting the meeting. The third was several months later….for no known reason.

In the first attack I found one materia medica—out of the 47 in Boericke’s book—that worked.

Several years later, I experienced the second attack. After the public ‘attack’ effort. The materia medica that I took for the first attack didn’t work. It took me several days to find an additional symptom that pointed to the proper materia medica. It was ‘chills’. Fifteen minutes after taking the newly recommended materia medica, the acute pain stopped.

Several months after the second attack. I had another acute attack of gout. Neither the materia medica for the first or the second acute attack worked for me. So I looked for another major symptom. I found it a day later. My tongue looked like it had been painted with white wash. Boericke’s tome indicated a different materia medica. I took it and 15 minutes later the pain was gone.

So, it’s not the proverbial ‘placebo’ effect. If it were, either of the first two materia medica would have worked.

Regarding colds and flu. If I can identify the symptoms properly and I have the proper materia medica on hand, I can squelch such an ailment in 15 minutes. However, the crucial factor is properly identifying the symptoms I’m experiencing.

The same goes for an acute case of infectious colitis I had after a biopsy for possible throat cancer. The prescriptions the doctor gave me to prevent infections lead to a very disappointing infection. Homeopathy cured the pain and debility in 15 minutes, once I got the proper materia medica on-hand. But that took a week, as it was a rather esoteric material.

So, I recommend checking out homeopathy as a form of medicine that might help in this situation. And, as I said earlier, since the AMA and CDC have nothing to help you if you become afflicted, this can’t hurt and will, in my considered opinion, HELP.

Regards,

Chuck(le)
P.S. The reason the AMA is so set against homeopathy is because it is direct competition for their business. And make NO MISTAKE ABOUT IT….

…..the AMA is a monopoly business. And they enjoy their hold on it.

Apr 28, 2009 - 1:16 pm 127. Delia:

126. Chuck Pelto,

Oh I’m all for ‘natural’ cures vs. toxic poison prescribed by ‘physicians’. Maybe I will buy that book for my birthday prezzie (I turn 39 *wink-wink*) this early May. That’s wonderful that you were able to find help for your gout in natural forms!

I keep all kinds of herbs and vitamins in stock as well as grow many perennial herbs. Oregano is AMAZING for helping with certain stomach ailments and has natural antibiotic properties too. I’ve kept tea-tree oil on hand for many years now and use it daily to keep my gums healthy and to fight germs and infections. Of course, I’m preachin’ to the choir.

My medicine and herbal cabinets are loaded for bear but hopefully the ‘bug’ won’t reach my door but I’m not holding my breath. Then again, maybe I should hold my breath? ha!

I hope your daughters will be safe and I’ll say a prayer for you and yours right now.

Thank you for sharing your experiences. I appreciate it!

Apr 28, 2009 - 1:54 pm 128. glasater:

I’ve had dengue fever and the flu. Dengue is just awful ’cause you get so sick you don’t care if you die.

Apr 28, 2009 - 6:07 pm 129. Chuck Pelto:

TO: Delia
RE: Herbals

They have their place. But I’ve not found that place to involve dealing with viral infections. Do you have a reference you can share about that?

Regards,

Chuck(le)
P.S. Hard to hold your breath for very long. Get some good re-useable masks instead. I also note that images of health care providers on Drudge and Fox News show them wearing googles as well.

Apr 29, 2009 - 6:03 am 130. Chuck Pelto:

TO: glasater
RE: Dengue You Say?

Ugly!

Congrats for surviving it.

Regards,

Chuck(le)
[That which doesn't kill us, makes us stronger.]

Or so the saying goes. But that doesn’t mean the ‘lesson’ is pleasant…..

Apr 29, 2009 - 6:05 am 131. Chuck Pelto:

TO: All
RE: The LA Story

I see that NOW the LA public-health people are denying the two deaths reported earlier are this-flu related. As if they really expect us to believe the retraction, once the proverbial ‘cat’ is out of the bag.

However, I do notice that the people in Texas are more forthcoming. Interesting that the victim was so young. Especially since the number of reported afflicted is so small in Texas.

We’ll have to keep a close eye on this. But we would have anyway.

Regards,

Chuck(le)
[The fear of death is the most unjustified of all fears, for there's no risk of accident for someone who's dead. -- Albert Einstein]

Apr 29, 2009 - 6:12 am 132. Anon.:

To: Charlie Martin
Re: Chuck and Delia

Pointless arguing with kooks like this pair. Just forget it – that way you’ll keep your sanity.

Apr 29, 2009 - 7:02 am 133. Chuck Pelto:

TO: Anon.
RE: Kooks?

Pointless arguing with kooks like this pair. Just forget it – that way you’ll keep your sanity. — Anon.

So…..

….tell US all, what degrees you hold and what are they in. Likewise, tell US how you’ve served your country over the last 40 years of adulthood. That is IF you’re an adult.

Regards,

Chuck(le)
P.S. Are you just another incarnation of OOMO-cum-backatcha?

Apr 29, 2009 - 7:14 am 134. Charlie Martin:

Then again, maybe it’s only seven fatalities.

Apr 29, 2009 - 10:13 am 135. Delia:

134. Charlie Martin,

Thank you for the update! That is GOOD news!

129. Chuck Pelto:

“RE: Herbals”

Chuck, I only have personal experiences to go by. I do quite a few e-books on herbal medicine but I usually end up going by what makes me feel better or keeps me healthy.

Oh my… I see I’ve been upgraded to a ‘kook’? ROTFL! YAY!

Apr 29, 2009 - 10:45 am 136. Chuck Pelto:

TO: Charlie (Colorado) Martin
RE: The Sorry Seven

Yeah….

….I saw that report to. And I’m wondering how an ‘official’ at WHO know so much better than those at the scene.

Is he/she there at the scene themselves?
Are they in an argument with the local officials as to cause of death?
Maybe they’re are language issues, like what is the definition of ‘is’?

Time will tell. One way or another…..

Don’t you think?

In the meantime….

….how well prepared are YOU for a pandemic? This or some future, possibly more fatal form?

I asked you that twice before, but you never answered.

Why is that?

Regards,

Chuck(le)
P.S. Cutsey picture. Is a spray-painted mask of silver provide more protection? Or just interfere with breathing?

Apr 29, 2009 - 11:04 am 137. Chuck Pelto:

TO: All
RE: The ‘Good’ Thing About This….

….is that a LOT of people are going to get OUT of ‘panic-mode’ and into the more effective ‘let’s-be-prepared-mode’.

Face it. Something bad is going to happen sometime. Whether it is NOW or LATER remains to be seen. But having gotten over the panic-attack, now, some people will probably think, “Hey! Maybe we should be better prepared.”

The crucial factor will be whether they are intelligent enough to learn from this lesson, however mild or harsh it may be, as opposed to going with the fable of the Boy Who Cried “Wolf!”.

There ARE ‘wolves’ out there. Consider ebola or dengue or marburg or avian (H5N1) flu. All of which have a substantially higher mortality rate.

The intelligent ones will consider and take action. The stupid will blow it off….much like Charlie (Colorado) Martin and backacha-cum-anon.-cum-OOMO.

Regards,

Chuck(le)
[Chance favors the prepared mind.....]

Apr 29, 2009 - 3:56 pm 138. Chuck Pelto:

TO: All
RE: Sakes!

It looked like this thread was about to drop off the bottom of PJM’s ‘radar’. But with my last comment, it’s back to middle-page.

RE: SO!

Here’s an additional thought.

Panic is what you expect from ‘inexperienced’, i.e., ‘green’, troops when they first hear a shot fired in ‘anger’ AT THEM!

I think the same sort of mentality exists in the general public when they hear, for the very first time, that something ‘big and bad’ is coming their way.

The sooner they ’survive’ such an experience, the better. The next time, they’ll be more ‘aware’ of what’s going on around them.

This ‘flu’ may be a blessing-in-disguise.

Regards,

Chuck(le)
[Chance favors the prepared mind.....]

Apr 29, 2009 - 4:55 pm 139. Chuck Pelto:

TO: All
RE: This…..

….will be interesting to observe.

I think this will be the first, modern-times effort at ’social distancing’. And I wonder how effective it will be for only five days. If it IS effective, I’ll be very happy. The idea of people not being able to work and earn their money to pay bills for several weeks is somewhat mind-boggling.

Regards,

Chuck(le)
P.S. Current mortality rate amongst the afflicted has risen a tad. It used to be about 6.5%. Now it’s up to 6.7%.

Apr 30, 2009 - 6:27 am 140. Chuck Pelto:

P.P.S. That’s based on figures coming from Mexico’s public health department. Not whomever that character is in WHO who thinks only 7 people have died.

We still have no significant data on deaths outside of Mexico. [Note: I discount the one in Texas where the patient CAME from Mexico to the US to receive care.]

Apr 30, 2009 - 6:29 am 141. Susan Katz Keating:

The health crisis is on the verge of going viral….

Apr 30, 2009 - 10:53 am 142. Chuck Pelto:

TO: All
RE: The Sorry Seven (ADDENDUM)

Just a thought, but if there have been only 7 deaths from this flu….

…..why is the Mexican government implementing ‘Social Distancing’ come tomorrow?

Seems to me that even just FIVE days of everyone but essential services people staying home would put a crimp in their economy. And think of the individuals who have a work-a-day job. How would YOU like to be ordered to take seven days unpaid-vacation?

Anyone got an answer to that question? Charlie? You still there?

Regards,

Chuck(le)

Apr 30, 2009 - 11:45 am 143. Chuck Pelto:

P.S. ERRATA!

FIVE days upaid vacation.

Sorry about that…..

Apr 30, 2009 - 11:47 am 144. Chuck Pelto:

TO: All
RE: Heh

As if we didn’t see THIS coming.

Hey! Charlie!

Invite the family over for a barbecue. After all, you’re opposed to closing our international ‘doors’ to the possibility of infection.

Or, let this guy and all his family visit the White House.

Regards,

Chuck(le)
[Put your 'life' where your mouth is.]

Apr 30, 2009 - 11:56 am 145. Chuck Pelto:

TO: Charlie (Colorado) Martin
RE: Okay….

….I’m waiting for you to explain why the Mexican government reports almost 200 dead and WHO reports only 7 dead from this flu.

I’ll accept a reasonable ‘conspiracy theory’ too.

Does the Mexican government report and actions support something to do with the proposed ‘national health care’ program?

Regards,

Chuck(le)
[Inquiring minds want to know....]

Apr 30, 2009 - 12:48 pm 146. Delia:

144. Chuck Pelto,

Ohhhhhhh the irony eh?

P.S. Last evening my daughter informed me she is sick and so are her 3 friends she lives with but she says it just feels like a bad cold [no fever or other symptoms]. I’m definitely concerned and I told her to stay home until she’s better (not just to keep from spreading what she has but also to avoid ‘catching’ anything else while her immune system is already compromised).

I’ve been calling her every six hours or so to monitor her and I’m probably driving her nuts but I’m worried.

UGH!

Apr 30, 2009 - 2:36 pm 147. Chuck Pelto:

TO: Delia
RE: Uuuuuhhhhh…

Last evening my daughter informed me she is sick and so are her 3 friends she lives with but she says it just feels like a bad cold [no fever or other symptoms]. — Delia

Okay….By the ‘proverbial’ numbers….

[1] Who amongst them has been to or been in contact with someone from the impacted area?
[2] If the answer to item 1 is in the affirmative, how long ago was that?
[3] If in the last two-to-three weeks, they are certainly in the ‘zone’.

What to do?

[1] Look at what I said in item #126.
[2] Be advised, you don’t have much time here. This is a rather aggressive ‘bug’. [Note: Be advised, if the better-worse column material is contrary to what is in Pano's book....look elsewhere. That better-worse business seems to be VERY indicative of the PROPER materia medica to take.
[3] Check Pano’s book first…symptoms reported in that book against what EACH person is experiencing.
[4] Get the materia medica recommended.
[5] Take the materia medica as recommended….stick it under you tongue and let it dissolve on it’s own. Eat-drink NOTHING for 15 AFTER the pills dissolve.

RE: My Eldest Daughter….

…is reporting no problems…as yet. But I’ve given her a ‘heads-up’. Considering she was with me when ex#2 introduced me to homeopathy, I think she grasps the significance of the technique.

RE: My Youngest Daughter….

….lives with ex#2. It is her own. So I’ve no real fear for her.

Hope this helps….

Regards,

Chuck
[The Earth and all there is in it, was made for Man.]

P.S. Our problem seems to be appreciating all there is ‘in it’…..and how to apply it…..

Apr 30, 2009 - 2:59 pm 148. Chuck Pelto:

TO: Delia
RE: Okay….

….if you cannot get to Pano’s book in a timely manner, i.e., in the next 24 hours, I’ll need to know the EXACT symptoms each individual is experiencing.

I’ll likely get cross-wise with the copyright laws and the AMA, the latter for practicing medicine without a license….but what the heck…..I’m in ‘extended play’ anyway. Must be for SOME ‘reason’.

Regards,

Chuck(le)
[You haven't lived until you've almost died.....]

Apr 30, 2009 - 3:15 pm 149. Delia:

Chuck,

I’m glad your daughters are OK! Regarding copyright laws and all that…I certainly don’t want to get you into any kind of trouble! You could always email me privately with your suggestions at one of my disposable emails:

anti_snollygoster-a@yahoo.com.au

Symptoms for my daughter and her roomies: Chest congestion, medium-lethargy, coughing, no upper respiratory pain, no sore throats, no body-aches, no fevers, no gastrointestinal ailments except for some mild nausea.

Two of her room-mates have young children who are sick too but doing ‘OK’.

I’m probably being overly paranoid but as the saying goes, ‘an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure’.

Apr 30, 2009 - 3:44 pm 150. Charlie Martin:

Hmmm. LA Times:

In fact, the current outbreak of the H1N1 virus, which emerged in San Diego and southern Mexico late last month, may not even do as much damage as the run-of-the-mill flu outbreaks that occur each winter without much fanfare.

Apr 30, 2009 - 5:10 pm 151. Chuck Pelto:

TO: Charlie (Colorado) Martin
RE: Heh

In fact, the current outbreak of the H1N1 virus, which emerged in San Diego and southern Mexico late last month, may not even do as much damage as the run-of-the-mill flu outbreaks that occur each winter without much fanfare. — LAT, as cited by Charlie Martin

So. Who’s the liar about the number of dead?

The Mexican government? Or WHO?

Regards,

Chuck(le)
P.S. I asked you about that in some items (above) in this thread….

Apr 30, 2009 - 6:25 pm 152. Well Educated Cad:

I wish the Media would ignore this as much as they did the Tea Parties.

Apr 30, 2009 - 7:34 pm 153. Chuck Pelto:

TO: All
RE: The Truth About Seasonal Flu Mortality Rate

Just came back from the local public health department’s public forum-briefing on this new flu.

During the course of the presentation, there came up comparisons between this flu and the seasonal flu.

According to the epidemiologist, season flu has a mortality rate of less than 1/10th of 1%, i.e., >.1%.

Not the 18% that some people around here, who seem to have poor math skills, would like US to believe.

RE: What’s Going On in Mexico?

Another question came up about why so many deaths are being reported in Mexico, but not in the US or elsewhere.

There are two possible theories. Neither of which excludes the other. Indeed, they likely compound each other.

[1] Here in the US we have seasonal flu shots to counter the seasonal flu. Lots of Americans get those shots. AND these shots are aimed at relatives of this new flu, i.e., they are a variant on H1N1 flu themselves. Therefore, it is possible that Americans are more prepared to cope with this new flu.

On the other hand, there is no such thorough a program for seasonal flu vaccinations in Mexico. Therefore, the population there has not had this build-up of immunities to various versions of H1N1.

[2] There may be issues with the frequency that people in Mexico wash their hands or other practices of dealing with seasonal flu.

Between the two of them, and I suspect the first theory carries more weight, the Mexicans are not prepared for dealing with this new flu. Hence the higher mortality rate they are experiencing than other places.

Regards,

Chuck(le)
[Chance favors the prepared mind....]

May 1, 2009 - 10:20 am 154. Chuck Pelto:

TO: Well Educated Cad
RE: Really?

I wish the Media would ignore this as much as they did the Tea Parties. — Well Educated Cad

Ignorance here is less than bliss.

Regards,

Chuck(le)
[Chance favors.....well....YOU know.....]

May 1, 2009 - 11:44 am 155. Chuck Pelto:

TO: All
RE: Additionally

I got the distinct impression that because this bug is NOW thought to be an admixture of FOUR different virus RNA—asian swine flu, american swine flu, avian flu and human flu—that they’re someone ‘concerned’ about it mutating in a way they were not anticipating. After all, it seems to be a first-of-its-kind bug. And RNA-based virus infections are well known to be highly-volatile for ‘mutation’.

Regards,

Chuck(le)
P.S. Just got off the phone with someone from another town who was supposed to come to an annual meeting of a club we belong to. Three guesses as to why she’s not coming…..first two don’t count….

And we’re glad she’s decided that discretion is the better part of public health……

May 1, 2009 - 11:48 am 156. Delia:

155. Chuck Pelto,

I’ve never taken a flu vaccine in my whole life [nor has my daughter]. We’ve definitely had our share of the ‘flu blues’ over our lifetimes but since this is a hybrid strain it’s highly unlikely that a flu vaccination would have done much good. I haven’t had a flu in over ten years now *knocks on wood*. So far, it seems my daughter just has a nasty cold but I’m being vigilant about keeping tabs on her condition until she’s better.

What if this had been small-pox? Would the zero admin have closed the borders THEN? Good grief! “Horses already out of the gate?” 0bama and Co. are such idiots! Yeah, a few horses are already out of the gate so we might as well let the rest of the stampede through. DUHHHHHHHHHH.

May 1, 2009 - 3:49 pm 157. Chuck Pelto:

TO: Delia
RE: Flu Vaccine

I’ve never taken a flu vaccine in my whole life [nor has my daughter]. — Delia

Fear not!

I’ve not taken any since I left active duty as an enlistedman in the 82d.

And now I think I’ve ‘had it’.

Getting better. The homeopathic might have been a factor in THAT. Something of a sore throat, something of some ‘toothache’ and some coughing this morning, but certainly no over-powering desire for sleep.

My personal experience that homeopathic techniques work VERY well. Especially against viral infections.

Regards,

Chuck(le)
[God made the Earth and everything therein for Man.]

May 3, 2009 - 1:44 pm 158. Chuck Pelto:

TO: Charlie (Colorado) Martin
RE: Soooooo….

…what you gonna do?

What you gonna do?

What you gonna do, when flu come for YOU?

Regards,

Chuck(le)

May 22, 2009 - 3:21 pm 159. Flu Mask:

Well.. it’s typical of media to take advantage of the hype of the moment.. you can’t really expect much less of them..

Jul 13, 2009 - 1:01 pm

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