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Seven States that Will Decide the Election
Conquering these battleground states means victory in November.
Ohio (20)
As my July article elucidated, the Buckeye State seems to have too many moderates uninterested in a celebrity for president. Fancy planes won’t impress them either. McCain needs to emulate Hillary Clinton, who had success here, and strike while the proverbial iron is hot. If coastal Democrats and infuriated Hillary supporters are considering McCain, so will midwesterners in towns like Toledo and Youngstown. Remember, not since 1960 has someone won the presidency without this state. Bush won here twice — even when unpopular in 2004 — so the centrist McCain, closer to a Democrat than Obama in the eyes of many, shouldn’t struggle.
However, Democrats are still confident, mostly due to the economy.
“In Ohio, kitchen table issues are dominant. Ohio has lost 250,000 manufacturing jobs to places like China and Mexico due to the failed Bush economic policies that John McCain promises to continue,” said Alex Goepfert, communication director for Barack Obama in Ohio. “There isn’t an attack ad in the book that can save John McCain if Ohio voters walk into the voting booth thinking about their jobs, their mortgages, their gas tanks, or their grocery bills.”
But many, like actor Jon Voight, question whether Obama’s solutions are better. A financial planner from Akron told me, “Jobs have disappeared abroad mainly because unions require $35 per hour salaries (with pensions and vacations) for 55 year olds who watch machines all day and take long lunches. Think that flies in Beijing?”
Interestingly, with major successes in the Iraq war recently, that issue, which had been a centerpiece during the 2004 and 2006 races, has become secondary — at least to Democrats, as Goepfert twice refused to answer my queries on the topic.
“The Democrats cannot use gas prices and heating bills as reasons veterans will discount John McCain, who has spent nearly his entire life in service to his country,” noted Kathy, a lifetime Dayton resident whose late husband worked locally at Wright Patterson Air Force Base. “Words like duty, honor, and country belong in a much more powerful context to men who have fought for our freedom.”
As someone who works with the military daily, I’ll vouch for the idea that enduring torture due to one’s dedication to the protection of our nation means a great deal to active military and veterans.
The Ohio Republican Party declined comment for this piece.
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Virginia (13)
Virginia is more than DC-area suburbs, Hampton Roads, and inner-city Richmond. In fact, the Commonwealth, physically, is mostly mountainous and rural. Culturally, it is overwhelmingly southern. Politically, much of it is military, religious Christians, and Civil War historians. The Richmond suburbs, especially the more middle-class ones, are conservative, as is their newspaper — a rarity these days.
Ninety percent of Virginia — from its summer humidity and mild winters to its hospitality and lush terrain — is southern to the core. Aside from Lyndon Johnson’s blowout win in 1964, Virginia has not voted for a Democrat in a presidential election since 1952, long before the transforming of political roles in the south and the implementation of Nixon’s Southern strategy. There usually is as good a chance of Virginia supporting the Democrat nominee as Maryland going for the Republican.
“Mitch,” who worked at the Pentagon during the Bush and Clinton terms, believes there is “no way that Obama will win in Virginia,” but he thinks it could be close. While he does agree that some of Virginia has become more left-leaning over the years, he clarifies that “it is almost entirely due to the northern Virginia area, the only area that’s truly liberal.”
Mitch also spoke about how many Democrats, when polled, “say they will vote for Obama, but these same people will condemn Obama amongst their friends. … So the polls might not be as accurate as we think.”
Others have brought up this “Bradley effect,” named after the five-term Los Angeles mayor who lost the 1982 California gubernatorial election even though he was ahead in the polls throughout the final days before the election. The conclusion, and this is surely germane to Virginians today, was that many Caucasians did not want to seem “racist” when asked who they were voting for. Yet when they got in the booths, they did not pull the lever for Bradley, who was black.
Veteran political staffer Gary Welsh of Advance Indiana recalled more frequent inaccurate polling after Evan Bayh confirmed he wouldn’t be Obama’s running mate earlier this month. He claimed that “in every single presidential election I’ve observed, the Democratic candidate has always had a significant lead over the Republican candidate.”
But Obama will not give up without a fight, especially since most polls have Virginia as close as ever. While former Gov. Mark Warner has insisted he is not a vice presidential candidate, the Obama campaign has persistently tried coaxing him to reconsider. The current governor of Virginia, Tim Kaine, has long been a well-publicized frontrunner to be the Illinois senator’s running mate.
All this attention proves Virginia is crucial to Obama’s plans. He has even chosen Warner to deliver the keynote speech at the Democratic convention, and has zeroed in on the Commonwealth as a state he can steal — even if history is not on his side.
Missouri (11)
The Show-Me State is a lot like Pennsylvania, with Kansas City playing the role of Pittsburgh and St. Louis that of Philadelphia. In between, it’s a lot like Alabama: very conservative and quite rural. Much of Missouri has a southern feel as you move south and west toward the Ozarks and the home state of Mike Huckabee and Bill Clinton (Arkansas). Just over the state line sits Walmart’s national headquarters. Fearing further unionizing, especially in Missouri where over 100 stores are located, the superstore is aggressively supporting McCain.
Though Clinton won here twice, that was before the post-9-11 hard push left of the Democratic Party, as evidenced by the 2008 candidate, the party chair, committee chairs, and Obama’s competitors in the primaries. Though Missouri was arguably Obama’s most impressive primary win, he’s no shoo-in here as McCain leads in most polls. Religious conservatives are abundant in Missouri, where the so-called Bible Belt “buckles.” If you talk to most residents, they’ll tell you they already have a Savior.
“Faith is important to all Missourians in every corner of the state,” said Tina Hervey, communications director for the Missouri Republican Party. “Missourians are looking for a candidate who understands the importance of faith in everyday life.”
Of the state’s 114 counties, only four went to John Kerry in 2004, thus prompting the question: How will America’s most liberal senator win here? Common sense says he won’t, especially with odd remarks and orders that may play well in Springfield, Illinois, but not Springfield, Missouri. You likely cannot count these folks among the 35% who had a positive opinion of Obama’s recent sojourn to Europe.
Also, thousands of active military in the Show-Me State likely will not be enamored with any hostile rhetoric from Obama or any cuts to funding. The FDR Dems and big labor, who kept Missouri somewhat close at seven percent in 2004, likely won’t go Obama’s way as easily in 2008.
“As he makes more gaffes during the campaign, and looks more like a rock star than a president, his lack of depth and understanding of most critical issues will become apparent,” Noah, a graduate student at Washington University in Saint Louis, told me. “In the home state of John Ashcroft, where a Republican governor has helped grow the economy, Missouri is McCain country.”
“The Missouri electorate is a very informed electorate,” Hervey added. “To win here you must appeal to both the metro and rural voter. This is why Missouri is a bell-weather.”
The Missouri Democrat Party declined to comment.
Iowa (7)
No one can ignore that Obama won the Iowa caucus while McCain finished a distant 4th in January. Polling data consistently shows the Illinois senator with a lead in Iowa. But that caucus was the first of them all — and seven months ago. Looking back, Hillary Clinton held a similar lead to Obama’s in Iowa before she started acting like the Democratic nomination was hers for the taking — and lost.
When it comes to Iowa, few know the state better than lifetime resident Tom Lindaman, who lives in the state’s largest city and is the editor of Common Conservative. He recently shared his insights with me:
Iowa can be a hard state for the self-styled experts to figure out because we have a surprisingly diverse electorate: College students and clergy. Farm workers and union workers. Country folk and city slickers. In short, if ever there was a “purple state,” it would be Iowa.
With the number of college students in Iowa, it’s not surprising that some polls show Iowa leaning toward Obama. Consider, also, that Obama is from a neighboring state, although it didn’t work wonders for Richard Gephardt in 2004. The interesting question will be whether Obama can appeal to the Democrats who supported Hillary Clinton, who are going to be a tough sell. One of her core voting blocs in Iowa was the aged, and if a significant number of them decide to stay home, vote for John McCain, or vote third party, it might be enough to give McCain the victory in Iowa.
Because of the state’s Katrina-level flooding in June and the potential use of ethanol as a gas alternative, Lindaman claims “farmers will be watching for the candidate who will extend his hand to help them. They cannot be overlooked.” He adds a word of warning to the candidates: “Iowans, especially farmers, can spot fakes. Be honest, or be gone.” From the department of honesty, Lindaman analyzes Obama’s recent European vacation. “Being a middle American, seeing someone who isn’t even officially the candidate acting like he’s already won the election is a major turn-off because it comes off as arrogant and presumptuous,” he notes. “Iowans expect our leaders to be humble and accountable, not a rock star.”
As odd as it sounds listening to the media, Iowa’s economy hasn’t been that bad. That works in McCain’s favor, provided Iowa voters see through the gloom of the media and notice how well they’ve weathered the economic storms.
“The Iowa economy is better than much of the country,” said Stewart Iverson, chair of Iowa’s GOP. “It is slowing, just not as much. I think it may be somewhat of an advantage but it is still to early to tell. Senator McCain is working hard in Iowa and I think he will do well in our state.”
The extreme social liberal views of Obama will hurt in states where Judeo-Christian values matter. Obama is still an unknown, who’s been prone to gaffes and backtracking in this, his first rodeo. “Independent voters are beginning to hop off the Obama bandwagon as they learn more about his liberal voting record and recognize his lack of experience,” Nathan Treloar, communications director for the Republican Party of Iowa told me. “Groups that I do see as potential pickups for John McCain are women and ‘Reagan Democrats.’”
Though Iowa’s Hispanic population is less than five percent, the GOP is confident in McCain’s ability to attract their votes, locally and nationally. “John McCain’s bipartisan immigration plan has been well received by many in the Latino community, evidenced by McCain’s dominance in winning the votes of Latino Republicans during the primary and caucus season,” said Treloar.
In terms of the economy, Treloar has recent reasons to be optimistic. He notes:
Many voters are starting to pay attention and are startled by what they’re finding. Putting Nancy Pelosi in charge of the U.S. House was supposed to bring ‘hope’ and ‘change,’ but Americans are not seeing it. McCain believes we need to employ a number of strategies to combat high energy prices … and will not exclude any idea from the debate if it holds the promise of contributing to the solution. Nancy Pelosi and other Democrat leaders will not even allow the issue of drilling to come up for a vote. That reeks of partisan politicking and the last thing voters want more of is hypocrisy.
I’ve driven through left-leaning cities like Iowa City and Des Moines, blue collar towns along the Mississippi like Davenport and Dubuque, and small counties out west near the Missouri River and Nebraska border which all went to Bush. “Be honest or be gone” resonates here.
Though neither Republican party official would make a prediction, Treloar quipped, “If the best solution that Obama has is to check the air pressure in your tires, then we’ll be seeing lot more John McCain barn signs in the fields along Iowa’s highways.”
Ari Kaufman resides in Indianapolis where he is a military historian and an Associate Fellow at the Sagamore Institute. A former Los Angeles schoolteacher, he is the author of Reclamation: Saving our schools starts from within.
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65 Comments
1. cedarford:Interesting, but missing:
Colorado.
Aug 20, 2008 - 1:27 am 2. Bernard Chapin:Michigan.
Pennsylvania.
Boy did I get jazzed to see McCain go up in the “no toss ups” electoral map on RCP yesterday. I think he’ll take Florida, Ohio, and Missouri…and the election. Thank God! There’s no reason to question Obama’s commitment to Israel…he doesn’t have one, lol. I can’t see McCain losing Virginia, but I personally don’t believe in the “Bradley Effect.” Good piece overall.
Aug 20, 2008 - 2:20 am 3. C Smith:‘…very unique’. You use that phrase. I do not think that phrase means what you think it means.
Aug 20, 2008 - 2:29 am 4. C Smith:‘extremely key’. See my previous comment.
Aug 20, 2008 - 2:30 am 5. MrTender:Do they count the votes in Florida? I heard they had a machine do it… with no paper record… even thought the company that makes the machine manufactures ATM’s that are able to keep a paper record.
Doh!!!!!!
What a fabulous democracy!!!!!
We should be proud!!!!!
Aug 20, 2008 - 3:25 am 6. RCD:Good stuff, Ari- It’s weird that you wouldn’t just take info that is given to you by big polls and media hubs and just spit it out…That seems to work for the mega-outlets on the left.
MrTender, is your connotation that our democracy, if not fabulous, is lousy? Are elections not decided by the majority? Are these ATM makers slanting all elections to make sure Repubilicans are only put in office? One might think that a Democrat could not possibly win in such a situation…yet there are Dems in office in the silver-haired sunshine state. Should we not be proud of America’s voting system, or just Florida’s? I’m just trying to make sure what your Homer Simpson-esque ramblings mean.
Aug 20, 2008 - 4:10 am 7. Cal:The analysis of Iowa and Missouri, two bordering states, ia particularly interesting. I’d say if either candidate gets both of those, they win for sure. NM is likely Obama while NH and FLA for McCain. Ohio is leaning McCain. Looks like McCain is currenlty on a high. We’ll see if it lasts. He really knocked some sense into Obama this past weekend at the debate.
I don’t get tender’s comment either, RCD. Nor Smith’s.
Aug 20, 2008 - 4:29 am 8. Seven States that Will Decide the Election « THE “G” BLOG @WordPress.com:[...] here to [...]
Aug 20, 2008 - 4:35 am 9. Lisa:The weird thing is that I have seen a lot of electoral maps where Indiana is blue.
I grew up there. Indiana may have had Dem. governors and a Dem Senator (one of said governors) but it hasn’t gone blue for a Presidential election in 30 years or more. I just don’t see that changing.. even for the Messiah.
Aug 20, 2008 - 5:14 am 10. idov:Just out. McCain up by five points in the Zogby-Reuters poll, 46-41. First time he’s been that far ahead in any poll.
Aug 20, 2008 - 5:16 am 11. Pay Leahy:The MSM wants you to believe Florida is a key battleground state. There are thousands of Jewish retirees, like my Mom, who are registered Dems, that will be voting not so much as for McCain, but against Obama – either way, it is a vote for McCain.
As for the Polls the MSM throws out there – they are a joke. They are NATIONAL polls – which mean nothing. BHO will win CA & NY by over 7.5MM popular votes – big deal. He will lose 35 other states by a combined 9.5MM votes.
Aug 20, 2008 - 6:19 am 12. bg:Very insightful. From your lips to —–
Aug 20, 2008 - 6:46 am 13. Staten Island:Why is the EC considered antiquated?
To me, it is obvious that it’s more valuable today than at any time in our nation’s history.
Aug 20, 2008 - 6:52 am 14. John Samford:I think CA. is in play for Big Mac. Here is why;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJGHQA0aizQ
Hispanic/Mexican/Immigrant voters are around 40$ of the demographic in California. They put the Govornator in office and they are the prime example of the ‘Bradley voter’. Take CA.’s 55 EV’s out of the Ohhh…..BAMA column and put them on the McCain side and now you are looking at a Mondale type pounding. Well, not that bad but close.
Aug 20, 2008 - 6:56 am 15. chicago:If you think Billery won’t bring this point up at the convention, I have a bridge in Georgia you need to look at. It’s just outside of Gori and the Russians haven’t blown it up yet.
Are they still there? 12 days and counting.
“Where facts are few, experts are many.”
Donald R. Gannon
New Reuters/Zogby poll shows McCain leading Obama!
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1541
Released: August 20, 2008
Reuters/Zogby Poll: McCain Makes a Move, Takes 5-Point Lead Over Obama
Obama loses ground among Dems, women, Catholics & even younger voters
UTICA, New York – As Russian tanks rolled into the Republic of Georgia and the presidential candidates met over the weekend in the first joint issues forum of the fall campaign, the latest polling includes drama almost as compelling – Republican John McCain has taken a five-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama in the race for President, the latest Reuters/Zogby telephone survey shows.
McCain leads Obama by a 46% to 41% margin.
And McCain not only enjoys a five-point edge in a two-way race against Obama, but also in a four-way contest including liberal independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr, the poll reveals. In the four-way contest, McCain wins 44% support, Obama 39%, Barr 3% and Nader 2%.
Obama’s starting to tank!
Aug 20, 2008 - 7:09 am 16. goy:New Reuters/Zogby poll shows McCain leading Obama!
Heh. Which just adds to the PSI already guaranteed at the DNC Convention / Pressure Cooker next week. This should be very interesting.
Aug 20, 2008 - 7:55 am 17. Xzins:The electoral college is not antiquated.
If we had a popular vote election, the number of parties running would be staggering, and the presidency could be won by as little as 20% of the vote.
Or we’d have to devise a method of quarter-final, semi-final, and final elections.
Aug 20, 2008 - 7:56 am 18. Darryl Gillikin:I love the analysis of the Commonwealth of Virginia, the state of my birth and where I lived the first 28 years of my life. And I agree with “Mitch”: Obama doesn’t have a chance in Virginia, and if his camp really and truly believes it does, they’re deluding themselves. A lot has been made of the victories by Tim Kaine and Jim Webb in recent years, but if you go back to the time period of January 1981-January 1993 (in other words, the 12 years of Reagan-Bush), Virginia elected as Governer Chuck Robb, Gerald Baliles and Doug Wilder–Democrats all. And we sent Robb to the Senate during that time. And still, the state never came close to going blue in a presidential race.
Your mentioning the “Bradley Effect” is also telling–remember, that phenomenon is also sometimes referred to as the “Wilder Effect”, because of the 1989 Virginia Gubernatorial race in which Wilder’s healthy exit poll lead shrunk to a margin of less than 1 percent and resulted in a recount. I’m pretty well convinced that’s probably also playing a role in Obama’s current showing in VA.
Obama can carry NoVA easily. He might have a chance in Richmond. Hampton Roads will go McCain, and southwestern Virginia will too–probably in a landslide. I just don’t see any way Obama wins there.
Aug 20, 2008 - 8:54 am 19. Minerva:Stick with V.O. Key’s “Quad-Cali” strategy.
Aug 20, 2008 - 10:13 am 20. Big My:Very thorough and very well informed. Good details Mr. Kaufman. Don’t usually see this in depth coverage in MSM–probably too time consuming for most people to read since they are busy downloading to their IPODS and updating their Facebook accounts.
(Agree that very unique is inappropriate but a common mistake)
Aug 20, 2008 - 10:20 am 21. Olivia:I think Obama’s arrogance and incompetence will decide the election.
Aug 20, 2008 - 10:20 am 22. ex-liberal:He could lose California, New Jersey, Wisconsin, Oregon, Washington, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. I never thought I’d vote for a Republican but this year I will. Obama will do better than McGovern and Mondale but not by much.
Great report – thank you for taking the mystery out of the process.
Aug 20, 2008 - 11:21 am 23. v for victory:Nice job. Interesting nugget about Goepfert in Ohio, almost as good as an “admission against interest.”
Aug 20, 2008 - 11:22 am 24. Cheri:Wow — what a detailed and thoughtful analysis, Ari. You’ve given me (and others) additional reason to be optimistic.
Olivia, I wish you were correct about California. However, just take a look at our boneheaded legislature, some of the laws they enact, and who’s running the show (Boxer, Perata, and other radical liberals), and you’ll understand my doubt.
Aug 20, 2008 - 11:34 am 25. Steve Fein:This Kaufman young man has a very unique style of writing. I may not agree with everything he says, but I admire the way he states his points.
Aug 20, 2008 - 11:57 am 26. Ray:Interesting piece. Some eye-openers for some of these states for me. I’ll be sure to look for these states to sway this year’s election.
Aug 20, 2008 - 12:17 pm 27. Blossom:Once again this Kaufman article combines History, geography, and knowledge of the political into a thoroughly interesting and informative read. If I didn’t know better, I would think the author was an elderly, independently wealthy, perhaps retired statesman. Everything about the style and presentation of facts makes me want to read more from Mr.Kaufman.
Aug 20, 2008 - 12:45 pm 28. Concerned Citizen:Nice analysis. It will be an interesting election, though if things continue on the current pace, it might not be that close. If the race comes down to integrity and character, McCain wins. I think the Saddleback forum is already having an effect.
None of my Dem friends had heard how Obama got trounced and the two candidate really showed who they were, not just reading off a TelePrompTer and making a nice speech.
Here are links to the full transcript and videos, definitely worth sharing with anyone interested in the election:
http://trevinwax.com/2008/08/17/obama-mccain-with-rick-warren-at-saddleback-forum-video/
per C Smith’s comment above re: “very unique”…. something is either unique or it is not. If something is unique, it is incapable of being “very” anything, it is just unique.
Aug 20, 2008 - 1:28 pm 29. Thomas:Excellent job (and not just because I’m quoted in in the story, either)! By taking more time than a standard journalist/commentator to flesh out a story, Mr. Kaufman has provided a real service to America. Another tip of the cap to you, sir.
Aug 20, 2008 - 1:31 pm 30. CruzanNM:This article is excellent. Absolutely the most informative piece I’ve read in a long time, and is factual, researchable and presented intelligently with no political bias. Being from NM, I was glad to have all those links included to get the inside scoop that our local papers don’t publish. I do recall that in the 2000 election, those ‘400 votes’ for Gore were ‘found’ in the basement of the Bernalillo County Courthouse a week AFTER the election was held. Which, of course, is why the GOP has such a difficult time gaining a solid foothold in state politics. I think NM will go McCain this time around. The hispanics here are realizing that the ‘illegals’ are causing more problems than benefits and don’t appreciate the pandering of Obama and the democrats. Hopefully, the ‘artsy’ folk of Santa Fe and Taos will check their investments and figure out that the democrats plan to tax them into poverty.
Again, Ari…….wonderful article, definitely worthy of being re-printed in any major newspaper or MSM magazine. Thanks for sharing it with me.
Aug 20, 2008 - 1:49 pm 31. David:Very interesting article, Ari. I like how you focus on something not covered much in the media. The liberals must in taken aback when they see that all their havens are not as important as they think they are.
Aug 20, 2008 - 1:56 pm 32. Valerie:This is an excellent analysis of the electoral system and its prevalence today. One of the better political pieces I’ve read this year and it was both well researched and well written (two things which seemingly fail to go hand-in-hand in current mainstream journalism. I won’t go into my own analysis of the piece as I will leave that for the individual reader to discern but I will say that it is unfortunate that the readership will be limited to this website because this is a far cry better than the mainstream journalism that our country has become accustomed to…
Aug 20, 2008 - 2:20 pm 33. B Dils:I still think Pennsylvania and Colorado are important states before all is said and done, but otherwise solid analysis and it does appear to me that Obama is losing steam quickly.
Aug 20, 2008 - 4:45 pm 34. fred:I live in New Hampshire and have lived here for most of my life now (I’m a Mass. transplant, from a solidly Democrat family, but I’ve broken away and gone off the reservation!). I’ve watched how the state has changed politically. I differ from Mr. Kaufman in how I perceive what is going on here. In 2006 this state went HEAVILY Blue. It was a slaughter for the Republicans. It even surprised me how anti-war this state is. I went to the University of New Hampshire (my alma mater) in Durham, so I know how solidly Left the enclaves of Durham, Concord, Keene, Plymouth, Portsmouth, Hanover, and much of the Connecticut River Valley are. I think Mr. Kaufman overstates how politically astute the people of this state are. My angle on things is sort of different, since I did not become a Republican until 2003. It seems, anecdotally, that most people around me are supporting Obama, with reservations. They might be convinced to not vote for him once they find out who he really is. I’ve moved to the Right during a time when a lot of people around me moved to the Left. I used to be a Marxist many years ago, so I recognize one when I see one. And Obama is about as hard-core Marxist as they get. He’s been allowed and enabled to hid his true beliefs. If somehow he can be exposed for what he really thinks and who he truly is, it changes a lot.
I know a bit about the Mountain West and California. I lived in S.W. Colorado back in the late seventies, when it was solidly Republican and conservative. The Mountain West has changed politically. Rather dramatically, I might add. Now, I think the Mountain West leans more easily towards the Democrats. How did this happen? A massive influx of Californians changed it. There is no more Leftist state in the union than California. Yes, I know that some Californians will object and tell me that the Central Valley is very different from the coast. But the coast is where most of the people are.
McCain should forget California. Write it off. That state is so far Left that its Republican governor in no way resembles a Republican. He is more like a somewhat conservative Democrat.
Aug 20, 2008 - 9:35 pm 35. Larry Grant:From here at my office in on a FOB in eastern Afghanistan, McCain wins NC, OH, and WA. The officer in charge of absentee voting is doing a great job in getting all the military registered to vote in this election. “God Bless America.” Regards, Lawrence from Mehter Lam, Afghanistan.
Aug 20, 2008 - 9:40 pm 36. cwmissus:Extremely informative to those of us who don’t live in those 6 locales.Love the details, quotes and backing up of all facts. honest and thought-provoking.
Aug 20, 2008 - 10:10 pm 37. igoochica:Found the Iowa explanation quite interesting from a native Iowan.I especially like the fact that both parties were well represented and fairly. The background information on each state was incredible and made the reader feel as if he was right there with Kaufman, sittting in a cafe or speaking with the folks who inhabit each state. Excellent article
Being a registered Dem, but voting as an Indy since the late 50’s for the candidate whom I thought would do the best job, I agree wholeheartedly with Mr. Kaufman regarding the electoral college. Time for Congress to look into revamping this archaic system. Popular vote would be all that matters…
Aug 20, 2008 - 10:14 pm 38. Maria:article is well-written and well-researched. BRAVO!
A very thorough and complete analysis of the current election. As someone who has not always followed politics very closely, it is nice to have all the information clearly laid out and backed by historical facts. Living in a college town, I am surrounded by pro-Obama bumper stickers wherever I go. Sometimes it seems as if any sort of pro-McCain display is the equivalent of walking around with some sort of political Scarlet Letter. After all, a person who supports the Republican candidate is either an uneducated, gun-loving religious fanatic or an evil, self-serving and hateful individual who wants “four more years of Bush.”
Aug 21, 2008 - 7:00 am 39. DMG:Reading Kaufman’s piece serves as a reminder that what I witness every day does not represent the American people and gives me hope for a more balanced and favorable election outcome.
I like this comment:
“I think Obama’s arrogance and incompetence will decide the election.He could lose California, New Jersey, Wisconsin, Oregon, Washington, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. I never thought I’d vote for a Republican but this year I will. Obama will do better than McGovern and Mondale but not by much.”
Yep, McCain is very humble, which will help him, as most Americans are humble and not arrogant, at least in swing states. I don’t know why McCain still considers himself the underdog, but he is not. He’s leading, and it should continue as Obama makes more gaffes and shows he’s out of touch not to mention inexperienced and very, very liberal on important issues.
Aug 21, 2008 - 7:39 am 40. CruzanNM:I chose to go back and read the preface to the article again after reading Igoochica’s comments. I don’t think MR Kaufman is advocating doing away with the Electoral College at all, but discussing it’s importance in our national elections. To do away with it would mean that the larger states, like NY, CA, FL, IL and a few others would control the presidency because of their overwhelming sheer number of voters. The EC guarantees that the votes of EVERY American that bothers to vote is heard. To do away with it does away with our system of democracy, and provides us with ‘mobocracy’ instead.
Aug 21, 2008 - 9:17 am 41. R. Howard's Dad:It can’t be disputed that those states will the election. I don’t necessarily agree that the Bradley effect will play out here. I think it is an easy cop out to say, “well, America is still racist. . . ” I think generally most people will listen to the viewpoints.
Aug 21, 2008 - 2:22 pm 42. Rhett James:As usual, Mr. Kaufman provides detailed and carefully researched analysis of certain key states critical to the election. I’m surprised that he did not include the important State of Michigan which, although a tough call, should have been included in the mix. I’ve felt a shift in the past week away from Obama due, in part, to the Rick Warren interviews which provided an overwelming plus for the McCain camp. This may not be identifed as a “Bible Belt State,” but rather is a Bible toting state. Let’s hope that perceived trend continues.
Aug 21, 2008 - 6:30 pm 43. Bob Dole:what a pathetic self comforting article, devoid of real analysis. you seem to think that talking yourself into seeing all these states as leaning to mccain – when at least 4 of them have polled for obama since january – will help anyone? this site really is one of the most delusional places i’ve come across
Aug 21, 2008 - 10:15 pm 44. Sakaki:One state that is prominently missing, and only has Obama up by 2 right now, is Minnesota. And if McCain gets someone strong, you can certainly expect McCain to start leading in that state.
Palin would be able to help bring up Minnesota, as will Pawlenty. Romney will kill the state.
Aug 22, 2008 - 3:22 am 45. Rachel Peepers:Another key state in the race for the Presidency is one Ari Kaufman didn’t mention.
Home to the Obama camp. The state of denial.
They don’t want to believe that in a Democratic senate year, Americans can turn around and vote Yes to low taxes and No to a change to high ones; to wit, exorbitant capital gains taxes.
They don’t want to believe that in a Democratic Senate year, Americans can say Yes to a strong military and No to changing to a hazardous-for-everyone’s health neutered military.
Get the picture?
McCain stands for a resounding Yes to off-shore drilling for oil and No to the Barackian change that outlaws America’s right to fight for her independence from foreign oil.
McCain says Yes to the surge and No to a Senator that continues to deny its success.
Furthermore, John McCain has always said Yes when his country needed him. Well, I believe it’s time we answered John’s call now that he needs his country.
The clock is ticking and it’s time we emphatically say No to a Senator who’s friends with the admitted terrorist, Bill Ayers, who, together with Bill Ayers, points out America’s flaws and imperfections every chance this terrible twosome gets.
Let’s join together and say, Yes to the man who values life, even at infancy, and No to a post modern Barack Obama, the man who voted “no” to a bill that protected babies born alive as a result of botched abortions. Then called others liars for calling him on it.
I could go on and on, but I’m sure you get the picture.
Barack Obama represents a hard left turn down a danger laden road this country can’t afford to travel on.
So where does that leave us?
Well, the most liberal man in the senate who’s running for President is also the least qualified to lead. And totally unqualified and unfit to assume the role of commander in chief.
I happen to live in a state with what I believe to be the most corrupt governmental system, city and statewide in U.S. history.
Illinois.
It isn’t a battleground state. Here, the battle for honesty and integrity is lost every couple of years at election time. We have a habit of putting unscrupulous people into office and then throwing them in jail when they’re caught committing heinous crimes.
Out of that tradition, though, has come Barack Obama with Bill Ayers, Resco and Bernadette Dorn at his side, all having tied-at the-hip connections.
What does that mean?
It’s meant money in all their greedy pockets.
Barack, for example, got a mortgage three points below prime, then turned around and rewarded the guy who gave it to Barack with a $14 million sweetheart deal.
Believe me, the state of Chicago government is one you don’t want to touch with a ten foot pole.
Fortunately, the latest polling says the man who fought for the surge is himself surging in the polls. The man who denied the surge is floundering in the sea of his socialized plans and race-bating rhetoric.
No, Barack Obama is not like the men on our money. He’s right about that. But not because of his color.
It’s about the content of his character.
Come early November, Barack Obama is going to be taking up residence, not in Washington DC but, rather, in a place he’s likely not to find to his liking.
The state of disbelief.
Aug 22, 2008 - 7:16 am 46. California Mike:Great Article! As a Political Science major, I can appreciate the statisical analysis Kaufman provides in the way of the five key electoral states he mentions in this piece.
Aug 22, 2008 - 11:04 am 47. Ari Kaufman:As I often do, will now address some comments and wrap this section up before the weekend begins.
To the very first comment, yes, I could include Colorado, Pennsylvania and Michigan. I also could then include Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nevada, Georgia, New Jersey and other states potentially in play, but article was quite lengthy already. Perhaps in a future piece. And please note I addressed Mich, Minne and Wisc in prior pieces.
See here re Indiana, my home state:
http://advanceindiana.blogspot.com/2008/08/mccain-takes-six-point-lead-in-indiana.html
This year’s election reminds me a little of the 1992 presidential race…About this time during that campaign, Ann DeLaney was on Indiana Week In Review trying to convince us that Bill Clinton would carry Indiana that year, even with Dan Quayle on the ticket with Bush. Despite Bush’s disastrous loss nationally, winning just 37% of the national vote and a strong third-party candidate in Ross Perot, Bush still managed to carry Indiana by 90,000 votes. I don’t see Indiana switching from a red state to a blue state this year. I suspect McCain will wind up with at least 53%-54% of the vote on a bad day where he loses nationally. He’ll carry Indiana by at least 10 points if he wins nationally.
Correct. Sites that report otherwise are downright delusional.
To the lady who said she suspects I’m “elderly, independently wealthy, perhaps retired statesman,” I am much obliged. I wish I were any of those, even elderly, since today’s youth shames me so. Alas, I’m fairly young, fairly poor, and work 45 hours per week, then write because I love my country and it helps me sleep at night.
To Mr. James, who requested I mention Michigan, I did that in my prior piece: July 28. Michigan is a toss up. The economy is very bad there, and the Dems in power (Gov. and corrupt Mayor) are to blame — unions too. That Michigan and Pennsylvania are potential McCain states shows this election could be a landslide for Johnny Mac. LOTS of electoral votes swinging there. Winning those would be akin to BHO winning Ohio and Florida, which he will not.
To Sasaki, who requested I mention Minnesota, I did that in my prior piece: July 28. Yes, Pawlenty would help there, but that stats is SO liberal, I cannot see how McCain can win there, though it’s possible.
To “Bob Dole,” your shallow, self-aggrandizing comment ripping the website and avoiding any positive from a 5,000 word article with quotes from both sides is very sad, yet typical of an emotional reaction. I made no prediction. What four have polled for Obama? What polls? Have you visited these states or poured through their histories as I have? If I wanted to “comfort myself,” I’d have mentioned McCain WILL win all seven and could win about 4-5 more than Dems normally win, but I aim for balance. I also aim for discourse, sorely lacking amongst the liberal MSM. You sir, need to actually think, observe and conjure up some rational thought, it’d seem. That’s the difference here. PJM is the big boys. This is not CNN, MSNBC or PBS.
Rachel Peepers, your lengthy, well-reasoned comment is quite accurate and hardly debatable, aside from typical name-calling you’ll receive. That means you’re correct. Well done. Thanks.
And to Mr. V is for victory, thanks for an intelligent comment—finally.
Aug 22, 2008 - 11:17 am 48. Jim Croche:The keys are Pennsylvania, which you missed, and Florida.
If Obama wins either one, he wins.
Aug 22, 2008 - 1:09 pm 49. CPT D:Ari, I hope your predictions prove correct come November. Thanks for putting the research time into this very informative and collective piece.
Aug 22, 2008 - 2:06 pm 50. RLB:As always, Ari Kaufman makes points that I would like to disagree with but, as well documented as they are, I often times can’t. This article forces me to think
Aug 22, 2008 - 7:16 pm 51. Cal:about my preconceived ideas of what it takes to elect a President and whether my vote really does count. I’m not a McCain fan, nor am I for Obama, and I constantly wonder where that leaves myself and many others of like mind. If Mr. Kaufman’s predictions are true, we may very well be calling John McCain, Mr. President come November. Thanks for such an insightful and well researched article.
If Obama wins Pennsylvania, he wins, Jim? Tell that to John Kerry and Al Gore.
Aug 22, 2008 - 7:33 pm 52. mac:Nice work, Mr. Kaufman. I’ve not been able to believe the American people would elect Obama President. He has too many character flaws and too little experience. That McCain is now in the lead in the polls doesn’t surprise me.
What also won’t surprise me is if the Dems who desperately want to win find some way to steal the nomination from him and give it to Hillary. I think that segment of the Party already sees Obama as a definite loser and thinks Hillary could possibly take McCain–or at least give a better showing than Obama will.
Should that happen however, the magnitude of the Democratic Party’s implosion will be something historians will still be discussing at the end of the 21st Century.
Again, nice work.
Aug 23, 2008 - 12:16 am 53. Sakaki:For Ari: I agree that Pawlenty may not pull in the votes in Minnesota.
I believe Palin would do that.
Pawlenty would do more to pull in votes in Colorado, New Mexico, Ohio, and Michigan.
Aug 23, 2008 - 4:52 am 54. Ari:Mac, race and gender is far more important to the PC 2008 Dean Dems than country. This is why BHO and Hillary having such influence. Look at this white guilt article in MSN today:
http://www.slate.com/id/2198397/
Never mind the inexperience, lack of qualification, connections to rouge individuals, radical politics, naivete and so on — it’s all about racist Americans. I’d like to ask the author when the last time his precious Europe or any Anglo country has selected a “minority” as a leader? That would be never. Total hypocrisy. These nations barely allow rights and freedom to those with dark-skinned, unlike America where all are treated equal, and with Affirmative Action, some better than others.
Sakaki, yes, Palin would be a fine choice, though she’s inexperienced. Alas, she’s never really been considered, I believe. With attack dog Biden now chosen, Romney is McCain’s best option. He’ll win Michigan for McCain which is all Johnny needs at this point. Ohio is going red as is Colorado. At that point, NM won’t matter.
Aug 23, 2008 - 7:52 am 55. John Blake:Almost from 1800 (Jefferson vs. Aaron Burr), the Electoral College has been recognized not as an anachronism but as a convenient mathematical fiction– by Founders’ accident, a stabilizing balance-wheel that magnifies Presidential outcomes so that most non-popular election results seem unambiguous. In cases such as Election 2000, knife-edge pluralities are unavoidable, but most times a riot-in-the-streets scenario is safely absent.
We would advocate abolishing the Electoral College as such (why bother with “faithless Electors” physically convened?) while retaining Electoral Votes for tabulation purposes.
Indeed, times are past-due to reform the basis for Electoral counts: By analogy with 1787’s Great Compromise, whereby regardless of population all States are represented by two Senators, let’s define Electoral College boundaries on a County rather than State basis. For too long, metropolitan regions (Boston, Chicago, New York City) have dominated winner-take-all State tallies. Designating counties would not only necessitate candidates campaigning in all areas, but obviate today’s imbalances whereby in-grown urban machines focus on special-interest constituencies to the detriment of “apple-knockers” as a whole.
Democrat incumbents in Congress stand aghast: A county-based Electoral College spells their political doom. But in this Internet Age, as with the “immigration reform” debacle of 2007, common citizens may yet league together to accomplish otherwise impossible results.
Aug 23, 2008 - 10:23 am 56. zebrahead:I don’t think the national polls mean very much right now so I look at things state-by-state.
I have developed my own list of seven states that I feel are crucial to McCain’s chances. I think McCain MUST win the first five and he’ll need to win at least one of the last two. Here the list:
Florida
Ohio
Virginia
Colorado
Missouri
Nevada
New Hampshire
There are many other states that are expected to be competitive. Iowa and New Mexico I anticipate will go to Obama unless he completely falls apart. Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are possibilities for McCain but haven’t shown him ahead in any polling. Obama will make a push to flip Indiana and North Carolina but he currently trails McCain in both states. McCain can win this thing if he wins Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Missouri, and either Nevada or New Hampshire, assuming the only states that flip to Obama are Iowa and New Mexico. It is a difficult but far from impossible task.
Aug 23, 2008 - 12:33 pm 57. Mark E:If the Mc-amnesty Rino party leadership really thinks that PA is ‘in play’, they may want to actually talk to the rank & file here.
The base is still steamed about the party support of Spector and lack of support of Santorum. People want the immigration laws enforced an drilling started now.
My unofficial count of bumper stickers & yard signs is going 200+ Obama for every 1 for McCain in the Republican areas Western PA.
Aug 23, 2008 - 4:37 pm 58. Ari:Zebrahead, decent analysis, though you’re far too kind to Obama. I live in Indiana. Bush won here by nearly 30 points and won 89 of 92 counties, even as he was unpopular in 2004. In 2008 here, as Obama is a radical and McCain likable, McCain will roll here. The military presence in the Hoosier State is VERY strong and they deplore Hussein Obama.
McCain also will roll in NC and ALL the south. It’s ridiculous to think otherwise, though the media will lie and say different from their NY, DC and LA perches — away from America’s heart. Where do you live, might I ask?
The other states, aside from Virginia (only chance BHO had was if he picked Kaine and he did not) are in play, but most favor McCain based upon past history and the uncertainty of Obama.
I think McCain gets at least 34 states, perhaps as many as 38, especially if reliable Dem states like PA, Mich, Minne and Wisc are in play, which they very much are. The Dems blew it big time with this divisive, naive, affirmative action “candidate.”
Mark E, don’t count yard signs. Republicans are mature and don’t wear t-shirt, sport yard signs or stickers. They fall “in line” with their candidates, knowing this is serious business and not a competition for American Idol. Liberals fal “in love” with their candidate.
Outside of Pittsburgh, I cannot imagine Western PA and “the base” is going to support a man who embraces Black Liberation Theology, has a wife who hates her nation and white folks, has never led anything or accomplished anything, and does not know how many states are in America. Just a guess.
Obama is the most liberal senator in America. Any Republican supporting him should be ashamed and switch parties to the Party of Defeat.
Aug 23, 2008 - 8:47 pm 59. Sakaki:Incorrect, Ari. Romney will not pick up Michigan for McCain, because people in Michigan do not actually like Romney.
Romney has more negatives than can be believed. Only Ron Paul had more negatives. The only thing Romney has is the ability to raise money, and alas, he can’t raise any during the three month run-up to the election.
And Palin being inexperienced? Bull. She was the mayor of a medium-sized town in Alaska, dealing with economics and potential issues with Russia. She is the Governor of a state who has a lot of popularity and is a national name in regards to energy issues.
Ari, you assume a lot about the states of Ohio and Colorado, as well as New Mexico and Michigan. The problem is you cannot assume, otherwise it’ll come back to bite you. We need more than just 271. We need 290-300. The best way to do that is by going with someone who is not going to alienate voters. Romney will alienate voters and will be an albatross. Romney is a complete and utter loser.
Palin and Pawlenty are the only two that will do anything. And even at that, Palin is BY FAR the better of the two candidates.
Aug 23, 2008 - 9:56 pm 60. Ari:Sakaki, fair enough. I do think the poor economy in Michigan is the fault of local and state leaders there, who are mostly, if not all, Dems. At least that’s what my contacts tell me. As I noted in my last article, though Mich along with Minne and Wisc will go blue, I surely think Mich is in play for the GOP. How can it not be when Granholm is so unpopular and the thug mayor is a nat’l embarrassment? I cannot imagine Romney can hurt terribly. The northern part of the state is staunchly Republican. But we’ll see.
Have you visited all of these states? Curious. I have…multiple times
I have taken time to write an article solely about Ohio, live a state over, have family throughout the state and am there about twice per month. I don’t assume much. I know how it’ll play out, and the average union Democrat who is Catholic and socially conservative, no matter what his status is, is not going to “vote for change” when Barack Hussein Obama is the candidate, supports partial birth abortion, and bring the wrong “change.” And of course, the millions of Republicans will support McCain en masse.
New Mexico could go Obama, but hispanics will shudder at supporting a pro-abortion candidate, so we’ll see. McCain’s pretty popular throughout NM as the piece notes. He lives next door and visits often.
Colorado is more than Denver, Boulder and Aspen. In states where a very unpopular Bush won over a candidate (Kerry) far more moderate and qualified than BHO, you cannot assume the centrist McCain will lose to a naive radical. Eastern and Western CO are VERY conservative, as the state’s second largest city: Colorado Springs. I travel, observe, record and judge. I know a lot about the United States. It’s one area I have expertise, hence this series of article. I’m not worried about any “swing states” but perhaps NM and Iowa. And those two will not be enough for BHO to win, especially if McCain takes New Hampshire, and maybe Mich, PA, et al.
Aug 24, 2008 - 8:23 am 61. Ryan:Excellent piece – very insightful and informative analysis. Love the background and research that was put into this. For a relative novice in figuring out how elections are won/lost; this is very intriguing info. Something to put in the hip pocket as we march towards November.
Aug 25, 2008 - 7:43 pm 62. Pajamas Media » It’s All Coming Down to a Few Key States…:[...] on both sides, and superfluous fodder for the media, to believe more than seven states will ultimately decide the 2008 [...]
Oct 3, 2008 - 1:40 am 63. It’s All Coming Down to a Few Key States … | USA TERM LIMITS:[...] on both sides, and superfluous fodder for the media, to believe more than seven states will ultimately decide the 2008 [...]
Oct 4, 2008 - 8:54 am 64. Zbigniew Mazurak:Ari Kaufman has proven himself to be wrong – as is usually the case.
Obama won in 6 of those 7 states, and consequently, won the general election as a whole. He lost only in MO.
Virginia voted for a Dem for the first time since 1964.
Apr 18, 2009 - 5:39 am 65. Zbigniew Mazurak:And Latinos voted for Obama by a 2:1 margin. 66% vs 33%.
Apr 18, 2009 - 5:40 am