Will Texas Hispanics Abandon Hillary for Obama?
A Clinton victory in the Lone Star State was supposed to be a certainty. Not anymore, writes Texan G.M. Roper.
“Si, se puede,” once again rings out in the Rio Grande Valley of South Texas. El Valle as it is known to those of us living here, hasn’t heard the phrase since the days of Caesar Chavez and the United Farm Workers.
This time, “Si, se puede” or, in the Obama lexicon, “Yes, we can” is the new slogan for Senator Barack Obama (D. Ill.) running for the Democrat nomination for President. And chasing him with blood in her eye is Senator Hillary Clinton (D. N.Y.) who has lost the last 11 races.
Obama is a phenomenon not seen in South Texas for decades. A year ago, there was one front runner and presumed nominee: Hillary Clinton. She knew it, the Republicans knew it, and the Democrats knew it. But apparently someone forgot to tell Barack Obama. And therein lays the tale of the current race in this part of the country.
The Rio Grande Valley is approximately 85% Hispanic and in the last national election, Hispanics constituted some 20% of the votes cast state wide. These votes went largely to Democrats despite a small but noticeable surge of votes for Bush in 2004 over his 2000 performance. It is these votes, as well as traditional Hispanic Democrats that Obama and Clinton are desperately going after and they well may top 25% of the eligible electorate in Texas this year.
South Texas Democrats tend to lean towards Clinton. The Clintons have made a number of trips to the valley collecting IOUs and hundreds of thousands of dollars in campaign contributions. This from MSAs such as McAllen-Edinburg-Mission which is the poorest MSA in the Nation with Brownsville-Harlingen coming in next to poorest. Both MSA’s are in the Rio Grande Valley and both have huge Hispanic populations. Obama has his work cut out for him, but he seems to be producing a crack in that tough Clinton shell.
Clinton appeared at the Dodge Arena in Hidalgo County, a local sports/show arena and though it holds more than 6,000 people, it seemed to be only half full. Obama on the other hand, appeared at the University of Texas-Pan American (UT-PA) in Edinburg, Texas and according to one eye-witness the lines stretched from practically one side of the campus across to the other. When she asked “What are you in line for,” she was told “We’re waiting to see Obama.” To capitalize on this, Obama supporters were handing out “early voting” locations, one of which happened to be at the University Library. (Full Disclosure, the eye-witness was my wife who teaches at UT-PA)
Obama arrived in the Rio Grande Valley from his debate in Austin with Clinton fresh, upbeat and rearing to go. He met with selected students from South Texas College and UT-PA and offered his version of pandering to students. Many in the selected audience as well as in the later rally wanted to know “how they would be able to pay for college.” Obama was ready with an answer; give each student $4000.00 per year in exchange for some form of community service. The students of course, looking to Uncle Sam and Big Government for their answers lapped it up with seldom a contrary word.
And, speaking of the debate in Austin, one must acknowledge that Austin is the single most liberal city in Texas and is sometimes so left leaning it is called “Moscow on the Colorado.” Clinton needed a knockout blow against Obama, and she didn’t get it. She once again brought out the tired zinger that Obama’s change amounts to Xeroxes of others materials, ignoring her own Xerox moments, and was booed for her efforts. This is not the way to score decisively in a debate.
But even the Hispanic vote is not a for sure thing for the Clinton campaign especially after the UT-Austin debate. State Rep. Aaron Peña who is both a powerhouse in the Rio Grande Valley AND is a Clinton supporter noted on Friday at the University of Texas – Pan American rally for Obama that it may well be the people who make the final decision. Peña also noted that Thursday night’s debate was a turning point and that “…it will become increasingly evident very soon who is going to win this primary.”
When all is said and done, Clinton most likely will hang on to her front runner status among Hispanics, but that doesn’t mean that she can rest easy. Texas has about 13% African Americans and those are likely to go to Obama by an even larger margin than the Hispanic vote for Clinton. This leaves the white vote and the women’s vote up for grabs. Then too, Ralph Nader’s tossing of his hat into the ring may pull some idealistic independents away from both Obama and Clinton.
To discount the racism and to some extent the sexism that still exists in Texas is to be absolutely foolish. One has to acknowledge that substantial progress has been made, but that more needs to be made. Will Bill Clinton attempt to exploit that as he did in South Carolina? Or will Hillary play the gender card as she has done in the past? Will Obama stumble now that he has pulled ahead by an average of 2.8% in the polls in Texas and has cut Clinton’s lead to 8 points in Ohio? Can Clinton stand to “almost break even” in Texas or win only by a little in Ohio? The answers to these questions may well be the answer to who wins on March 4th.
G.M. Roper blogs at GM’s Corner.
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11 Comments
1. jacksmith:YOU MIGHT BE AN IDIOT:-)
If you think Barack Obama with little or no experience would be better than Hillary Clinton with 35 years experience.
You Might Be An Idiot!
If you think that Obama with no experience can fix an economy on the verge of collapse better than Hillary Clinton. Whose
husband (Bill Clinton) led the greatest economic expansion, and prosperity in American history.
You Might Be An Idiot!
If you think that Obama with no experience fighting for universal health care can get it for you better than Hillary Clinton. Who anticipated this current health care crisis back in 1993, and fought a pitched battle against overwhelming odds to get universal health care for all the American people.
You Might Be An Idiot!
If you think that Obama with no experience can manage, and get us out of two wars better than Hillary Clinton. Whose
husband (Bill Clinton) went to war only when he was convinced that he absolutely had to. Then completed the mission in record time against a nuclear power. AND DID NOT LOSE THE LIFE OF A SINGLE AMERICAN SOLDIER. NOT ONE!
You Might Be An Idiot!
If you think that Obama with no experience saving the environment is better than Hillary Clinton. Whose
husband (Bill Clinton) left office with the greatest amount of environmental cleanup, and protections in American history.
You Might Be An Idiot!
If you think that Obama with little or no education experience is better than Hillary Clinton. Whose
husband (Bill Clinton) made higher education affordable for every American. And created higher job demand and starting salary’s than they had ever been before or since.
You Might Be An Idiot!
If you think that Obama with no experience will be better than Hillary Clinton who spent 8 years at the right hand of President Bill Clinton. Who is already on record as one of the greatest Presidents in American history.
You Might Be An Idiot!
If you think that you can change the way Washington works with pretty speeches from Obama, rather than with the experience, and political expertise of two master politicians ON YOUR SIDE like Hillary and Bill Clinton..
Best regards
jacksmith…
Feb 29, 2008 - 6:11 am 2. David Thomson:“To discount the racism and to some extent the sexism that still exists in Texas is to be absolutely foolish.”
The racism and sexism existing in Texas can predominantly be found within the Democratic Party. It is usually the lower educated members who are bigots. Such a mindset is inevitable in a political party advocating zero sum thinking.
Feb 29, 2008 - 7:37 am 3. Ogre:Sounds like Hillary is still running on the same platform as McCain: “It’s my turn to be president, so everyone else should just go away.” Unlike in the Republican Party, the Democrats aren’t listening, however. Good stuff, GM!
Feb 29, 2008 - 9:01 am 4. Diana:Honestly, this piece reads like some of the hit jobs on Dkos. “half empty halls”, etc. This is not what I’m seeing in Texas. Hillary is kicking butt with the hispanics in Texas STILL. A recent poll from a hispanic media group showed her 21 points ahead of Obama. Though I think it’s rather draconian to separate voters by race.
I like that a commneter here has likened anyone that doesn’t support Obama to be a racist (and “lower” educated). Then I would guess that he voted for Al Sharpton in the last election? Why not? He’s obviously a racist if he did not vote for Al Sharpton. See how silly that is??
Feb 29, 2008 - 9:25 am 5. Diana:Oh wait.. I see where GM Roper is coming from. He’s not an Obama supporter, he’s a Hillary-hater. Doubt this comment will be published. The graphic on Roper’s page is “REPUBLICAN – because not everbody can be on welfare.” And has some Clinton-hating quotes on there. The republicans are afraid of Hillary and hate the Clintons because they realized that during the Clinton years the wealth was spread around to all levels of society, not just the 50 million dollar a year traders, and the CEOs.
So consider the source.
Feb 29, 2008 - 9:31 am 6. Jeremayakovka:I don’t fault the students for turning out en masse to witness the coming of The Barack.
Jesse Jackson was the biggest draw on the Berkeley campus in Fall 1988. Having failed to capture the Democratic nomination that year, he’d come to stump for Michael Dukakis. I knew little about politics, less about political philosophy – I just knew I wanted to believe.
I also recall being that his vague rhetoric left a queasy feeling. It just took me over a decade to fully interrogate the causes of that queasiness.
Conservatives – and McCain in particular – have a great opportunity to “talk back to Barack” this year, to talk truly and directly to young people, the way they truly deserve.
Feb 29, 2008 - 9:38 am 7. GM Roper:Diana, it may surprise you that I am not a republican. I make fun of both Hillary and Barack if you will read my blog. The republican graphic was put up by my co-blogger and is back in draft form not on the site at present.
Feb 29, 2008 - 3:13 pm 8. Sandy in New Mexico:So, jacksmith, you have found another site on which to post. Too bad. I have read so much of your stuff on other blogs, but have not posted a response because it seems like such a waste of my time, but this time I could not resist. Especially since you post the same comments verbatim on every site you happen to stumble across.
Rational debaters do not resort to name-calling. If you want to make your points do so logically and do not call people ‘idiots.’ When you do that, you automatically nullify yourself. Stick to the points. Although I am an Obama supporter, you do make some good points but you will never influence me or pull me to your point of view by calling me names.
Mar 1, 2008 - 11:45 am 9. Si Se Puede:Si Se Puede was a slogan that Dolores Huerta came up with when she started the UFW with Cesar Chavez. It is an insult to hear Obama and his supporters use this as there slogan. Come on Obama if you want to make a change start with your slogan…..
Mar 5, 2008 - 8:56 pm 10. Carmen Villarreal:My name is Carmen Villarreal.
I am trying to see if we (Hispanics) can get together to vote for one of ours, Matt Gonzalez.
He is running with Ralph Nader.
He is not only a Hispanic, but, one of the two running for President/Vice President who encompass all we want in a president/vice president team.
Granted, the corporations front men like obama don’t want this and actively work to stop Nader and Gonzalez but Hispanics are overlooked when it comes to benefits BUT we are courted like whores when they want our vote.
Obama will lose without our vote. Let us show AMERICA we are capable of uniting.
Why is it that only blacks can vote for themselves in the high 90% and it is not be considered racially motivated?
WE WERE HERE FIRST.
They stole Texas from us. Slaves , shaves…we are still indentured servants. How many blacks can you pick up at the corner to work for $6.00 and hour and a sandwich.
Lets all UNITE and do as the blacks do, vote for one of us!
May 11, 2008 - 12:09 pm 11. Montana Writer:Ours at least makes sense. He is not in bed with the devil and is not a militant idiot and married to another militant idiot.
Was this printed by even a regional publication? If not is isn’t a credit. Zines, political or otherwise don’t count.
Aug 11, 2008 - 7:02 pm