Comments on: The Calm After the Storms: Hurricane Season 2007 http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/storm_season_wrapup/ Mon, 23 Nov 2009 01:15:53 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Weather Nerd » Quiet again in the tropics http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/storm_season_wrapup/comment-page-1/#comment-89476 Weather Nerd » Quiet again in the tropics Sat, 09 Aug 2008 03:19:54 +0000 http://dev.pajamasmedia.com/blog/the-calm-after-the-storms-hurricane-season-2007/#comment-89476 [...] just FYI, so you can check your conspiracy theories at the door). Personally, as I’ve said before, I don’t think these sorts of seasonal forecasts are of much value. Nobody knows for [...] [...] just FYI, so you can check your conspiracy theories at the door). Personally, as I’ve said before, I don’t think these sorts of seasonal forecasts are of much value. Nobody knows for [...]

]]> By: Weather Nerd » Greetings from the Weather Nerd! http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/storm_season_wrapup/comment-page-1/#comment-77377 Weather Nerd » Greetings from the Weather Nerd! Sat, 19 Jul 2008 03:50:02 +0000 http://dev.pajamasmedia.com/blog/the-calm-after-the-storms-hurricane-season-2007/#comment-77377 [...] about Hurricane Felix last year and Hurricane Bertha this year, as well as articles wrapping up the 2007 hurricane season and previewing the 2008 season. But those were just appetizers. Now [...] [...] about Hurricane Felix last year and Hurricane Bertha this year, as well as articles wrapping up the 2007 hurricane season and previewing the 2008 season. But those were just appetizers. Now [...]

]]> By: Pajamas Media » Are We In For a Busy 2008 Hurricane Season? http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/storm_season_wrapup/comment-page-1/#comment-58894 Pajamas Media » Are We In For a Busy 2008 Hurricane Season? Thu, 12 Jun 2008 08:11:18 +0000 http://dev.pajamasmedia.com/blog/the-calm-after-the-storms-hurricane-season-2007/#comment-58894 [...] is utterly foolish, as I explained last year, to suggest that some vast, agenda-driven, Al-Gore-fueled conspiracy is causing inflated [...] [...] is utterly foolish, as I explained last year, to suggest that some vast, agenda-driven, Al-Gore-fueled conspiracy is causing inflated [...]

]]> By: Boris http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/storm_season_wrapup/comment-page-1/#comment-16269 Boris Thu, 15 Nov 2007 17:51:05 +0000 http://dev.pajamasmedia.com/blog/the-calm-after-the-storms-hurricane-season-2007/#comment-16269 Wow, a decent climate related article on PJmedia, congratulations. At least until I read the comments, that is. I hope you continue the trend and move away from the conspiracy theories. Wow, a decent climate related article on PJmedia, congratulations. At least until I read the comments, that is. I hope you continue the trend and move away from the conspiracy theories.

]]> By: Judymomster http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/storm_season_wrapup/comment-page-1/#comment-16268 Judymomster Sun, 11 Nov 2007 19:07:08 +0000 http://dev.pajamasmedia.com/blog/the-calm-after-the-storms-hurricane-season-2007/#comment-16268 Very nice article. Thank you. Very nice article. Thank you.

]]> By: Tim http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/storm_season_wrapup/comment-page-1/#comment-16267 Tim Sun, 11 Nov 2007 05:11:46 +0000 http://dev.pajamasmedia.com/blog/the-calm-after-the-storms-hurricane-season-2007/#comment-16267 And, of course, few storms affected the U.S., where global-warming, ego-centric media notice them. And, of course, few storms affected the U.S., where global-warming, ego-centric media notice them.

]]> By: doug mortenson http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/storm_season_wrapup/comment-page-1/#comment-16266 doug mortenson Sun, 11 Nov 2007 05:08:04 +0000 http://dev.pajamasmedia.com/blog/the-calm-after-the-storms-hurricane-season-2007/#comment-16266 Brandon. Your suggestion that predicting the mean temperature over the next 100 years is easier than predicting hurricanes is criminally ignorant. There is NO science, other than man made equations, better known as models, the same type of bullshit used to predict hurricanes, that supports global warming via man made greenhouse gasses. The truth is, their is NO scientific evidence that points to greenhouse gasses EVER driving global warming. That's EVER, Brandon. Global warming is a function of our relationship with that nuclear power plant 93 million miles from your back door. Pull your head out. Doug "tired of the stupidity" Mortenson Brandon. Your suggestion that predicting the mean temperature over the next 100 years is easier than predicting hurricanes is criminally ignorant. There is NO science, other than man made equations, better known as models, the same type of bullshit used to predict hurricanes, that supports global warming via man made greenhouse gasses. The truth is, their is NO scientific evidence that points to greenhouse gasses EVER driving global warming. That’s EVER, Brandon. Global warming is a function of our relationship with that nuclear power plant 93 million miles from your back door. Pull your head out.

Doug “tired of the stupidity” Mortenson

]]> By: AM Edition http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/storm_season_wrapup/comment-page-1/#comment-16265 AM Edition Sun, 11 Nov 2007 04:29:35 +0000 http://dev.pajamasmedia.com/blog/the-calm-after-the-storms-hurricane-season-2007/#comment-16265 AJ, CNN doesn't have a left-wing agenda in reference to inflating storm warnings. It has a ratings agenda. When there's no news to report, the 24/7/365 news cycle demands that you invent some. They're doomsayers who would lose their audience if they didn't have fresh death and destruction to predict. AJ, CNN doesn’t have a left-wing agenda in reference to inflating storm warnings. It has a ratings agenda. When there’s no news to report, the 24/7/365 news cycle demands that you invent some. They’re doomsayers who would lose their audience if they didn’t have fresh death and destruction to predict.

]]> By: John Moore http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/storm_season_wrapup/comment-page-1/#comment-16264 John Moore Sun, 11 Nov 2007 04:05:48 +0000 http://dev.pajamasmedia.com/blog/the-calm-after-the-storms-hurricane-season-2007/#comment-16264 While it is true that the long term integral (climate) of a chaotic system (weather) is not necessarily chaotic, that does not apply very well to model driven climate predictions (and models are where almost all the AGW noise comes from). The models use finite element simulation of atmospheric physics (and sometimes of other phenomena), cycled over and over again through time. This is exactly the same process used by the weather forecast models, and at least in one case (that I know of), the same model is used. Meteorologists know that specific forecasts from models are rarely worth looking at more than 5 days out, and weather models are basically worthless for anything at 15 days out. The reasons include chaos, lack of resolution (requiring parameterization to account for the inability to simulate in detail), and lack of good initialization data. The same problems apply to climate models, and in addition, the climate models are very hard to calibrate due to the poor quality of paleo-climatic data. So while chaotic weather doesn't imply chaotic climate, modeling techniques, subject to chaos and used for both, produce chaos in both. While it is true that the long term integral (climate) of a chaotic system (weather) is not necessarily chaotic, that does not apply very well to model driven climate predictions (and models are where almost all the AGW noise comes from).

The models use finite element simulation of atmospheric physics (and sometimes of other phenomena), cycled over and over again through time. This is exactly the same process used by the weather forecast models, and at least in one case (that I know of), the same model is used.

Meteorologists know that specific forecasts from models are rarely worth looking at more than 5 days out, and weather models are basically worthless for anything at 15 days out. The reasons include chaos, lack of resolution (requiring parameterization to account for the inability to simulate in detail), and lack of good initialization data. The same problems apply to climate models, and in addition, the climate models are very hard to calibrate due to the poor quality of paleo-climatic data.

So while chaotic weather doesn’t imply chaotic climate, modeling techniques, subject to chaos and used for both, produce chaos in both.

]]> By: Bart http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/storm_season_wrapup/comment-page-1/#comment-16263 Bart Sun, 11 Nov 2007 02:19:42 +0000 http://dev.pajamasmedia.com/blog/the-calm-after-the-storms-hurricane-season-2007/#comment-16263 Yes, individual years do not confirm or deny GW. But, that doesn't mean we 'deniers' should sit back and play by Marquess of Queensbury rules. It's the Prisoner's Dilemma. You can't trust the AGW advocates to behave responsibly when it is their turn so, you better get your licks in before the tide turns the other way. Yes, individual years do not confirm or deny GW. But, that doesn’t mean we ‘deniers’ should sit back and play by Marquess of Queensbury rules.

It’s the Prisoner’s Dilemma. You can’t trust the AGW advocates to behave responsibly when it is their turn so, you better get your licks in before the tide turns the other way.

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