The 2012 Presidential Race: On Your Mark, Get Set, Go!
It is far from clear who will actually jump into the 2012 race, but we are getting a sense of the opening lines of the campaign.
The Republican 2012 contenders are keeping their powder dry — sort of. The public doesn’t seem anxious to endure another presidential campaign stretching over multiple years. And we learned that spending millions and jumping out to a lead in polls a year or more before the first primary vote is no guarantee of success. Still, there is a fair amount of political throat-clearing and jostling as the contenders vie to stay in the public view and establish their standing as credible challengers to the president.
Last week, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney appeared at the Foreign Policy Initiative conference to lay out their case against the president’s approach to foreign policy and align themselves with a forward-leaning, free-trading, and American values-based foreign policy vision. Tim Pawlenty has been throwing some shots at Romney over his Massachusetts health care plan (Romney hasn’t bothered to respond) and Mike Huckabee is everywhere — in Israel and on Fox News most visibly. Sarah Palin pushed “death panels” into the public debate, both horrifying her opponents and cementing the attachment of her fans. And in Hong Kong she too talked foreign policy last week, taking issue with the president’s defense cuts and emphasizing the importance of free trade and human rights as part of America’s international agenda.
It is far from clear who will actually jump into the 2012 race, but we are getting a sense of the opening lines of the campaign. There are four of them already in circulation.
First: “It turns out experience matters.” Obama ran with inexperience as a badge of honor and “change” as his message. The result is a mound of debt, a confused and erratic foreign policy, and a campaign-obsessed and governance-challenged president. Maybe it is time, the contenders will argue, for someone who has done something, built something, or run something before getting to the White House. Competency matters and executive leadership skills which go beyond speechifying make all the difference between failure and success.
Second: “The American people were had.” Conservatives early on sniffed out Obama as an ultra-liberal with a big government agenda, but it took an entire campaign and the better part of a year in office for most Americans to figure it out. It may not be an effective ploy to run through the list of broken campaign pledges — candidates are expected by many cynical voters to lie about what they will do. But they aren’t expected to lie about their political identity and overarching vision for governance. Obama isn’t moderate, doesn’t like the free market, and isn’t interested in waging a robust war on Islamic fundamentalists. The 2012 contenders will no doubt argue that he is not simply a far-left liberal, but was a dishonest one.
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Jennifer Rubin is PJM's Washington, DC, editor. She also blogs at Commentary’s Contentions.
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123 Comments
1. Moho:I see you people have given up on health care. I wonder why that is…can it be that the numbers didn’t actually change. And your assault on logic and decency failed, leaving you people with nothing but stinkface?
Read it and weep:
Plurality of Republicans support Public Option!
http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_health_care_092409.pdf?tag=contentMain;contentBody
Sep 26, 2009 - 10:56 pm 2. Blackwater:Mitt Romney is far and away the best choice in my opinion. He has all the right qualities to win. He’s tall (for some reason that matters to people), he’s good looking, he’s well spoken and intelligent, he’s a successful busisness man yet doesn’t come off as a selfish greedy villian, he’s an expert on economic policy, he’s well versed on foreign and demostic policy, he comes off as a warm hearted social conservative rather than a fanatic, he seems like a good family man, he’s charasmatic and genuinely friendly, etc. So he appeals to me strongly but alas I supported McCain with equal enthusiasm in 2008 and that didn’t go very well. So maybe I’m a bad judge of electability.
Sep 26, 2009 - 11:29 pm 3. Dave 2:“The lines and the themes really all boil down to a simple idea: it wasn’t the “change” we had in mind. It seems with each passing day more Americans may be susceptible to that message.”
Doesn’t seem that way. If some form of health care reform gets passed (doesn’t even much matter what kind … and it seems likely that something will pass), that should cement 4 more years.
Sep 26, 2009 - 11:46 pm 4. john from cinncinatti:i would guess, that if past practices demonstrate anything, the first one to pitch their hat in the ring early will have 2 long years to get shredded and taken apart by the media and Obamas dogs. Sarah Palin and Joe the plumber are a couple of examples. but hope springs eternal that we can get in some congressional sanity voted in before the lies and made up stories begin hitting the airwaves. it was two tiring years of campaign rhetoric or hubris. maybe if someone starts early obama will leave the presidency alone for 2 years and won’t screw stuff up. that’s not going to work either.
Sep 26, 2009 - 11:51 pm 5. Nick G.:We don’t need to find the ‘perfect’ Reagan candidate. They don’t exist. So in the interim, Romney will do. He’s conservative enough, and more impressively, he’s competent, and that counts for something after 12 years of Bush-Obama.
Sep 27, 2009 - 12:49 am 6. Poor Citizen:Have to agree somewhat with no2 (blackwater) on this one. I remember Mitt’s father George as the Govenor of Michigan. He was a union republican and quite liberal. He had a real common sense approach to policy, bi partisan, which is virtually non-existent now. However, Mitt Romney displayed the same qualities in Massachussetts with his support for the social, caring issues like national health insurance. Unfortunately, he has renounced much of that belief now that he is running for president, which makes progressives upset and loony righters very, very suspicious. Although I feel this guy would be the biggest threat to the Dems in 012, I just do not think a noreaster republican has a chance to get the nomination. Even Huckabee, from the south had problems as a moderate. But who knows? The Republicans have swallowed hard before and gone for the win…maybe 4-8 more years of Obama will smooth some of their square edges and force their hand. I wish him, and them all the luck.
Sep 27, 2009 - 12:50 am 7. digitalis:Steve Forbes. It’s about time.
Sep 27, 2009 - 1:30 am 8. Francis W. Porretto:The early GOP presidential candidates will have to fight a terrible temptation: the temptation to campaign against the incumbent, who won’t be their most important opponent until late in 2012.
A campaign for the nomination must emphasize the candidate’s attractive qualities and positions. He can’t afford to run an “against” campaign; that would expose him to destruction from having focused on the wrong adversary. Even if there’s only one other contender for the party nod, an “against” campaign would undersupply his potential supporters with reasons to back him. Each candidate must do what so many candidates, left and right, failed to do in 2007 and early 2008: attract a base of allegiants and construct a firm plateau of support.
In this regard, Sarah Heath Palin has a substantial advantage over any other contender. Her personality, character, and political principles are already well known to the GOP and freedom-minded independents. In effect, her 2008 vice-presidential nod has positioned her in much the same way as Ronald Reagan’s abortive try for the 1976 presidential nomination.
As for the other probable aspirants:
– Mitt Romney? No principles, too avid for power, and less attractive as a campaigner than as a head on a poster.
– Mike Huckabee? Not nearly fiscally or economically conservative enough, and a bit scary to coastal conservatives “who keep baby oil and vibrators in the nightstand.” (P. J. O’Rourke)
– Rudy Giuliani? At this point, his aura from the post-9/11 recovery period has worn away, and his age come the election (68) will play against him with the party kingmakers.
– Mark Sanford? Not since the adultery scandal.
– Fred Thompson? Probably not. One quixotic attempt to save the Republic is enough.
– John McCain? Forget it; some Republican would put a bullet in him if he were even to muse about it in public.
– Bobby Jindal? Still too young, has failed to acquire any national stature or following, and, sad to say though it is, his Catholicism would probably count against him.
Sarah Heath Palin is definitely the front-runner, and will remain so unless some “journalist” produces a photo of her stepping out of a flying saucer.
Sep 27, 2009 - 2:35 am 9. Anonymous:1. Moho:
I see you people have given up on health care. I wonder why that is…can it be that the numbers didn’t actually change. And your assault on logic and decency failed, leaving you people with nothing but stinkface?
Read it and weep:
Plurality of Republicans support Public Option!
http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_health_care_092409.pdf?tag=contentMain;contentBody
Isn’t it wonderful? The one thing you need to know about liberals and the liberal press is that they reflexively lie in order to advance their agenda.
From the last page of the aforementioned “poll”
Total Republicans 289 234 (22%)
Total Democrats 357 385 (37%)
Total Independents 396 423 (41%)
Personally, if they had called me I would have hung up.
Sep 27, 2009 - 4:36 am 10. turfmann:1. Moho:
I see you people have given up on health care. I wonder why that is…can it be that the numbers didn’t actually change. And your assault on logic and decency failed, leaving you people with nothing but stinkface?
Read it and weep:
Plurality of Republicans support Public Option!
http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_health_care_092409.pdf?tag=contentMain;contentBody
Isn’t it wonderful? The one thing you need to know about liberals and the liberal press is that they reflexively lie in order to advance their agenda.
From the last page of the aforementioned “poll”
Total Republicans 289 234 (22%)
Total Democrats 357 385 (37%)
Total Independents 396 423 (41%)
Personally, if they had called me I would have hung up.
Sep 27, 2009 - 4:36 am 11. formwiz:Moho once again lives up to his nom de plume, a bottomless pit, created by Democrats, going nowhere. CBS News polls twice as many Demos as Republicans and, one suspects, makes sure many of its Republican respondents come from RINO districts. At last quote, Rasmussen had 56% against public option.
As for the situation, Jennifer gets it right. Points 3 and 4 will resonate much more loudly in 3 years. The one point to keep in mind is that the front runners have serious flaws. The millstone around Romney’s neck is Mass Health, a walking disaster if ever one existed. Huck is far more left than his boosters want to believe and it will come into focus more clearly this time. I agree with Francis that we probably don’t know the name of the eventual nominee (Pawlenty excepted).
Sep 27, 2009 - 4:43 am 12. vivo:Anyone beginning a campaign before May 2012 will be considered a fool: waste of time, waste of money, waste of patience.
Sep 27, 2009 - 4:47 am 13. Jack’s Newswatch » Blog Archive » The 2012 Presidential Race:[...] [More] Web Logs ADD COMMENTS You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site. [...]
Sep 27, 2009 - 4:56 am 14. The SPLC: Law Enforcement’s “race-baiting” Propaganda Machine « Mark Epstein:[...] In like manner as other Leftist organizations, the SPLC engages in mudslinging hoping that its accusations will stick. No need for facts. One only needs a shrill, hysterical voice to malign anyone who dissents from Obama’s and the Left’s contemporary ideology. As one pundit noted, “Without Beck the far left would not have been exposed.” Michelle Malkin also engages the Leftist status quo in her latest piece on the New York Times: “Hapless ombudsman Clark Hoyt writes in his Sunday column that his paper was guilty of unnecessarily politicizing a legitimate breaking story and suffering “slow reflexes.” Meanwhile, Jennifer Rubin notes “The American people were had.” [...]
Sep 27, 2009 - 5:30 am 15. sydneyj:“Doesn’t seem that way. If some form of health care reform gets passed (doesn’t even much matter what kind … and it seems likely that something will pass), that should cement 4 more years.”
Cement 4 more years? I doubt it. There’s people like me who voted for him in 2008 who will NEVER vote for him again (and I’m a black Democrat).
Voters will be different in 2012, so I think 2012 is definitely up in the air:
1) 2008 was a historic election. A lot of people came out to vote in the “first black president,” even some Republicans who, now that they see what Obama has done and his agenda, won’t vote for him again. And, do you really think all the seniors who voted for him in 2008 will vote for him again?
2) From what I understand (and I’m sure someone will correct me if I’m wrong) conservatives didn’t come out in any large numbers because of disappointment with McCain as the candidate. I think that will be different in 2012, again, now that people have seen what Obama is about.
3) You can only vote the Bush era out one time. The evil Bush is gone, and, even though Axelrod will try to link any Republican running in 2012 to Bush (you know that will be part of their strategy), it’s not going to be the same.
I think a few things can certainly help reelection for Obama in 2012. First, if Republicans get majorities in 2010 – if that’s the case, Obama will be forced to come to the center which, in the end, will only help him. 2) amnesty for illegal aliens – if he gets them legal and eligible to vote in 2012, then game over, the Dems will have control for years.
And, third, the fact that the changes from health care reform won’t affect most Americans until AFTER the 2012 election. There will be a lot of anger as Americans see how their health care is really being changed, but, by that time it will be too late.
Sep 27, 2009 - 5:37 am 16. cedarhill:Wouldn’t it be better to vote FOR something rather than AGAINST? Mostly all this is just saying “let’s out Barack”? Conservatives need a strong theme. The key issue, by 2012 will be energy. Regardless of how the skirmishes play out over the next 18 months, the price of energy will simply go up and up and up. Obama and the Dems have made that a reality. They will speak of sacrifice and their usual non-factual arguements.
Energy is the key to food production, to making things (like that MRI machine you need in medicine), to moving people and goods around, to staying warm in winter, cool in summer. Nothing works with energy. The cheaper energy becomes the more prosperous we are.
Using all the elements of conservative thinking – free markets, free enterprise, individual freedoms – we can produce the cheapest energy on the planet and export it as well.
Restricting energy is a huge tax on each household. Your electric bill will be more than your mortgage. You’ll have to drive to work in a one-seat killer-mobile. And for what? The lie of global warming?
Vote for prosperity.
Frankly, if McCain or Romney or another progressive JFK like Republican gets the nomination, I’m through with the GOP forever.
Sep 27, 2009 - 5:59 am 17. steve:From what I’m reading in this column and the subsequent comments, America is lost.
First of all Ms. Rubin, Obama is not a liberal. He’s an anti-white Marxist/communist. He does not intend to ever respect much less defend our constitution which he says is “fundamentally flawed”.
If you don’t have the courage to define your enemy you’ll never defeat him.
Gingrich Romney, Pawlenty are all politically correct cowards who would sell us out in a heartbeat. In fact they are liberals. None of these retreads would have the courage to call Obama what he truly is nor would they have the courage to say that has surrounded himself with anti-Americans, communists, black supremcists all of which were chosen because they all share Obama’s views. He was mentored and raised by these people and has spent his entire life seeking them out.
They wouldn’t say it because they might be called a “racist’. How sad. They’re intimidated by a bunch of anti-white race baitors. The’re afraid to have THESE poeple leveling charges of racism against them. Pathetic.
What happens when ACORN and the NEW Black Panther Party roll out their voter fraud and intimdation machine along with the unions?
Gingrich Romney, Pawlenty and the like would tremble in fear and make excuse for the enemy rather than take head on.
They all support unfettered Muslim immigration into our society (because its “legal”) and show complete ignorance of the Islamic texts and how this phenomenom is destroying Europe. We’re being systematically invaded by people who can not and will not assimilate into our country.
Would they even consider stopping this insanity? No, that would be politically incorrect and the MSM would call them names. They could at least read the Islamic texts but they won’t even do that 8 years after 9/11.
If Obama and the Democrats takeover our healthcare system we need people who refuse to enforce it and overturn this unconstitutional, illegal power grab and loss of our liberty.
We need new blood. We need a government, politicians and judges who abide by the constitution.
We need people who have the honor and courage to revolt against this tyranny. we must do what needs to be regardless of the cost because losing can’t be an option.
Ms. Rubin should have scoffed at the thought of turning to these clowns to fight for taking our country back. She didn’t. They makes her part of the problem.
Sep 27, 2009 - 5:59 am 18. Pedro:At this point I will take Bart Simpson over Obama.
Sep 27, 2009 - 6:06 am 19. LeighB:Obama has provided so many openings for opponents in 2012. Challengers in his own party or other parties can present a contrast by being open about their personal histories (e.g., school and health records), their associations, and demonstrate the consistency between their words and deeds (”I believe in this as you can see by my work/votes”). They can show they do not need to rely on the teleprompter and can talk to the American people about their ideas directly without a script.
Challengers can announce early and often that they want to be the President OF ALL THE PEOPLE, not just elites and some ethnicities. They can promise to talk to us when events require it, to work hard to restore our economic and military strength, and to listen to Americans across the country. They can celebrate innovation and strive to get the best ideas vetted and supported. Oh, that v-word, and yes, they will vet their staff and expect to be vetted themselves.
Sep 27, 2009 - 6:07 am 20. larry Miller:Gov Mitt Romney is more qualified to be this nations chief executive than anyone of either political party in or out of government. If Romney was to win the Republican nomination in 12, he would make Obama appear to be exactly as he is: an empty-suit unqualified to be this nations chief executive. Romney has a lifetime of experience making the tough decisions in which he was responsible for the results; Obama has shown himself to be someone that can’t make a decision unless it improves the life of some Union member or a Liberal Democrat special interest group. It’s so sad so many people in this country let the so-called MSM convince them Obama was up for the job when he continues to prove everyday he’s in over his head. Go Romney!
Sep 27, 2009 - 6:22 am 21. DougF:Well much as I would like to pontificate about the ‘who’ of 2012, I believe it’s the ‘why and when’ of 2010/2012 which are more important.
For all intents and purposes American politics has fallen and cannot now get up. The ONLY thing that really matters is the elections themselves. An incessant drone of ELECTIONS. Past elections, current elections,future elections.
I hate to break it to everyone(right-left-center, it doesn’t matter) but a system that is all about Elections is a broken dysfunctional system. Elections are a means to an end, not the end itself. It’s only really 9 months since the results of the last election have been installed, and already the talk is of an election that will not take place for 3 YEARS.
Next year Congress(which is totally useless when it is not merely grasping and corrupt) will manage not to do anything constructive as its bottom feeders concentrate on being RE-ELECTED in 2010.
Elections-elections-elections. For no reason other than elections.
It won’t matter who runs in 2010/2012. it NEVER does. The new bunch will be every bit as useless and disappointing as the old bunch. And
meanwhile the Republic spirals ever downward.
An endless Fool’s Parade.
Sep 27, 2009 - 6:31 am 22. Pragmatist:And then people wonder why the system and its inhabitants don’t ‘represent’ them, and things just seem to get worse.
Wonder no more.
Formwiz MOHO is a self confessed Mohammedan antisemitic JEW HATING Troll and as such of course as such a perfect Obama supporter no need to consider anything it says.
Sep 27, 2009 - 6:32 am 23. Gary Ogletree:There is only one potential candidate who inspires many thousands of people to drive across a state line or two to wait in line for hours to get into the never big enough venue where she will bring down the house and make President Wee Wee squirm.
Sep 27, 2009 - 6:38 am 24. Jerry:For President of the United States?
Sheila Bair, head of the FDIC
She will win easily on all fronts.
1) She is a woman
Should she choose to run, she will quickly develop a loyal following from the center to the right – only the farthest left will be able to resist her charm and high character
Sep 27, 2009 - 6:48 am 25. Peg C.:2) She is more knowledgeable and more personable than Obama
3) She has saved the people’s money from disappearing
4) She is a person with experience in the field of economics – which Obama is not
5) She is a person with a standard family background and without inflexible ideological considerations
6) She looks good in debate against the most roiled questioner and will bring Obama to his knees in face-to-face debate
7) She has run for office as a Republican in the past
9) She comes to the campaign without political baggage
For years it was simply a given that Hillary would be the Dem nominee and the Republicans were completely caught snoozing until it was way too late and Obama was in. We should use Palin (whom I love) as a stalking horse right up to the last minute and then move our real candidate in – who that will be, I have no idea, but it needs to be someone that is difficult to destroy within a week, as they did her a year ago. Palin could run, but she is much more valuable to us (the base; not the Republican “leaders” who generally hate her) as a lightning rod for Lefty insanity and as someone who defines and drives debates and exposes the Left (Death Panels).
Romney and Huck are lightning rods for the left and the right. Personally, I don’t want either one as pres. We need a strong conservative who gives the Left fits because he/she CAN’T be easily destroyed. Slip that person in less than a year before the election.
Sep 27, 2009 - 6:50 am 26. Paul:I voted for McCain, as crazy as he was and is, he seemed the least un-authentic GOP products. But, Mitt is the worst( actually the saddest ).
He’s the GOP Obama. Not much experience, groomed, hitting all the shallow points, known to say what ever an audience wants to hear, full of vague platitudes, albeit Republican. Good looking, great back-story.
A good, politically clueless, out of step with American pop culture. Just as Obama appealed to the academic, Kumbyah Volvo driving rainbow left elite, Mitt does country club, mercantilist rent seeking RNC elite just fine.
Neither served, nor their families in the gauche military. Both have vague, ghost written hagiographies.
Been there, done that.
I’ll go with Palin, or Pawlenty, or Rand Paul. Anyone other than a product old failed GOP names that are responsible for Bush/Hasteret/Lott and by omission, McCain.
Sep 27, 2009 - 6:51 am 27. Increase Mather:Obama will be a one termer because culturally, he’s not an American. He’s Harvard’s and NBC’s idea of what an American is…
…the media did full battle for him last time, it’s going to be much tougher for the MSM to sell him again.
We’ve seen him in action.
Sep 27, 2009 - 6:57 am 28. Pawlenty on Foreign Policy « Pawlenty and other Randomness:[...] a response Jennifer Rubin notes that Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich stopped by the big Foreign Policy Initiative Conference last [...]
Sep 27, 2009 - 6:57 am 29. pibill:“Events, my dear boy, Events.”
Sep 27, 2009 - 7:01 am 30. vb:So said PM Macmillan when asked what influenced elections and so it shall be for 012.
Expect the US to be in such dire straits leading up to next presidential election that the country will be very divided, talking openly of rebellion or secession, in severe recession and indebtedness.
IMveryHO only one person remains standing that can salvage this- Dr./General David Petraeus. We will be needing all the experience he can bring to the job of saving the US.
Do we really have to start the next presidential campaign now? All this accomplishes is having republicans and conservatives chewing people up. Even if you don’t like Romney, he might have some strong points to make on economic policies. Even if you don’t think Palin has foreign policy experience, she might contribute something to our energy and environmental discussions. It doesn’t hurt to listen to everyone at this point and to arrive at a sensible consensus about the way our country should move. If we reduce our discussions to the level of American Idol contests, we weaken ourselves. We have a good two and a half years to talk about issues. Afterwards we can talk about who best represents our views and who can best implement our desirred policies.
Sep 27, 2009 - 7:09 am 31. ricpic:The great unwashed (not a pejorative term) have had it with RINOs.
It’s Sarah’s for the taking.
Sep 27, 2009 - 7:23 am 32. Now and Then:Wow, talk about thin pickins.
Sep 27, 2009 - 7:45 am 33. steveg:If you read pollster Frank Luntz new book you will have a better understanding of America 2009. He interviewed, and polled 6,000 americans throughout the country, and “americans are mad as hell, and are not going to take it anymore”. His poll revealed that 3/4 of americans are mad as hell, and this is what their mad about:
1) Washington DC politicians…. show only concern with special interest groups,and look down on the common people. No accountablity is what makes americans most angry toward congress and the white house.
2) Wall Street….Also a group that cares nothing about the common man. New York city bankers and traders that manipulate the with rest of America, and consistently get away with it with the help of congress and white house.
3) Hollywood….Main cause of coarsening of America. Smug elitist snobs that look down on the normal joe’s.
Take on the above three listed groups, and you will win in 2012.
Sep 27, 2009 - 7:47 am 34. Jettboy:I think, from my browsing around the Internet, that the race will be between Palin and Romney. Huck could still be a spoiler like he was last time or, if Palin doesn’t step in, he and Romney would be the leads. That is if there isn’t anyone fresh (as can always happen) that jumps out as different. The biggest problem, as vb states, is that we might end up doing what happened in 2008; viscerating each other’s prefered candidates that gave the MSM the chance to choose the Republican leader.
And I say this one more time to give the Republicans a fighting chance for a non-Rino: NO MORE OPEN PRIMARIES!
Sep 27, 2009 - 8:10 am 35. Moho:Turfmann, I’m trying not to call you stupid here. I really am. But what is it you think that means? I wrote that a plurality of Republicans in the survey supported the public option–what would the fact that there are slightly fewer Republicans in the survey have to do with that. And are you aware that there are only about 22 to 28% of Americans who actually identify as Republicans. I’m sure the rest of your party affiliates appreciate the fact that you hung up. They’re dumb, but not that dumb.
Sep 27, 2009 - 8:21 am 36. arhooley:I got another theme: It’s time for Common Sense. Read Sarah’s speech in Hong Kong.
Sep 27, 2009 - 8:21 am 37. Now and Then:33. steveg:
“3) Hollywood….Main cause of coarsening of America.”
Actually it’s Seth Rogan. He’s the villain! Yep, if anything coarsens America it’s comedies. It’s not people bringing guns to town halls or screaming “Nazi” at each other . . . no, it’s Seth Rogan, with a little Lindsay Lohan on the side.
Sep 27, 2009 - 8:21 am 38. David S:The bottom line will be whether Americans feel they are better off as 2012 approaches. Considering the governance we have experienced under GOP administrations, it is very doubtful that Obama will have any trouble securing a second term.
The fact is that Obama ran on a platform of hope and change, and he has been steadily pushing forward all of the policy issues that his constituents support. By addressing climate change, health care, the decline of unions, and regressive tax policies, Obama will win broader support from those who understand the nature of prosperity.
On to the “opening lines”…
1) If experience matters, Obama will have four years of on the job training – something none of his challengers will be able to compete with.
2) Telling the American people you think they are stupid is not a winning strategy. Most Obama voters are happy with their decision, and were not confused about their choice.
3) It will be Barack Obama’s economy and debt – but it will still be in recovery from Bush’s recession and profligacy. If the economy is good, Obama will surely get much of the credit, but if it is still weak, there will be plenty of people to share the blame.
4) Obama’s rhetoric about America is not that we are in decline – it is that we should accept the project of lifting up the world, instead of using our influence to hoard prosperity at the expense of others. American exceptionalism as practiced under Bush was never anything but a cringe inducing project. A successful foreign policy can’t rely on jingoistic self-righteousness and hypocrisy, which is about all that the previous administration could offer.
I’d suggest that the GOP has a lot of ground to cover before it will find an “opening line” that can undo the eight years of memories we all share. This is not a PR problem that can be easily smoothed over – the GOP is in a fundamentally incoherent position philosophically, trying to mesh pro-business and pro-religious conservatives, whose goals are completely at odds with the best interests of the nation as a whole, and each other.
There is nobody in the GOP stable today who can run with Obama. Those who try can expect to be left in the dust.
Peace.
DS
Sep 27, 2009 - 8:22 am 39. Moho:I’ll go with Palin, or Pawlenty, or Rand Paul.
Yeah, any one of those will do, because I have absolutely no idea what they believe in. I just don’t like Mitt Romney because…well, there’s no reason for that either. Hey, I’m a Republican. Don’t ask me to vote on facts!
Sep 27, 2009 - 8:23 am 40. toothless:who ever runs needs to have their big girl panties on and run a campaign not a freakin milk run like mc cain did. the left ran all over that man.
the left will be out for blood and they best be handed their heads.
33..well said
re mitt romney….
the 2002 olympics were in the toilet$$$. the state of utah called on him to help. it was a fantastic success!!!, check it out. no little feat considering what had been done previously, it was a mess. he’s a good man i think. not who i would choose at this point in time. i know the presidency is not the olympics but you get the point. he’s not afraid to speak his mind,
i think mc cain would have lost by much more if not for palin. however, i do not see her running for president.
i prefer gingrich right now. (almost anyone to obama and his firends) i don’t care if he’s been married 6 times, so what? better than the prince edwards and his kid, or blue dresses, girls drowning in cars, having communists in your adm.
we need a miracle. we need a person of substance, well actually we need to get our heads out of dark unsanitary places and get out the vote. we’ll have a fight with the young, uneducated, over-educated (the perpetual student), uninformed, system suckers. but they can be overcome.
Sep 27, 2009 - 8:35 am 41. now and Then:the left will pour money into the system in 2010 to show us how lucky we are they are giving us so much, of course it will be our own money. it will be nice for a while, and people will be sucked in…if we’re not attacked and blown to smithereens before that.
20. larry Miller:
I’m surprised you’d want an elitist like Romney in the White House.
Sep 27, 2009 - 8:40 am 42. Mike Murray:Regarding the first of Rubin’s identified campaign themes (“It turns out experience matters”), I agree wholeheartedly. Obama said while campaigning that experience is “overrated.” He asserted, in fact, that it might even be DETRIMENTAL to proper decision-making. (And, therefore, to good governance.)
Nonsense. Experience does for judgment what hard work does for luck: improves it dramatically.
Sep 27, 2009 - 9:01 am 43. steveg:Obama will have a hard time in 2012. The race card has officially expired with the american people which was the lefts primary weapon along with class warfare.
BTW…I have been reading about a march on the vast left-wing media in October. NYT, NBC, ABC, CBS, CNN,etc to be targeted.
Sep 27, 2009 - 9:10 am 44. arhooley:38. David S:
2) Telling the American people you think they are stupid is not a winning strategy.
Why not ask sydneyj (#15) why s/he changed? Did someone tell Sydney s/he’s stupid, or did s/he reassess Obama on his/her own?
Sep 27, 2009 - 9:44 am 45. Air2iar:SydneyJ, I really appreciated your post #15. The perfect combination of information and non-inflammation.
Sep 27, 2009 - 9:49 am 46. cfbleachers:Jennifer
Unless and until a single candidate appears on the scene who captures the FULL momentum behind him or her…disunity will rule the day.
There was a TV show, many, many, many years ago, before you were born…called Fractured Flickers. It produced quite a few laughs and guffaws.
There is a wave of resistance currently to the present administration’s policies…but they have an enormous advantage with the entrenched media, academia and Hollywood in their pocket. These sock puppets will simply turn up the propaganda volume, turn on the smear machine and lie, cheat, scam and distort at full velocity.
That’s an advantage/disadvantage that CAN be overcome by a Reagan…but will NOT be overcome by a splintered, fractured, comedy of errors opposition.
The economy will be propped up in time…held together by spit and Elmer’s glue…and also sheltered from criticism by the Distortionists (see above). In reality, we have a monster second wave coming in the form of commercial (not residential) loans coming due…estimated to not be capable of being met at a rate of 66%-70%.
If the lenders don’t modify these notes at incredible terms…small business will collapse at a rate so precipitous…we will consider this first phase as a kiddie pillow fight.
There will be no hiding or shielding this collapse. And $9 trillion will look like lunch money.
We need to get money in the market moving…now. Movement is the key. Stagnation is death.
We need to look beyond who we know today…someone else, not known to us at the moment, to step in and bring some reason and rationality back to this land of ours. We need to look outside the box, because this box doesn’t contain any of the right answers…it isn’t asking the right questions.
Sep 27, 2009 - 9:52 am 47. mike:already? we need obama forever. here’s my new guilty obsession: http://www.mandymoorehol.com
Sep 27, 2009 - 9:53 am 48. Hejsan:I can’t believe how ignorant some of these postings are. State specifics on anyone mentioned, here, people. I for one am a huge Romney fan because of the specifics about him. I was there during the turn-around of the 2002 Olympics- no small task, considering how too many people in the US were smirking and thrilled that Utah, of all places, was being blackened with scandal. The leadership on a world-wide basis to turn that event around was HUGE, something the Huckabee, Pawlenty, Gingrich, and Pallin could not have done. Being a successful and hard working student (who’s grades, courses, and degrees are not a secret), businessman, leader in the Olympics, and govenor = someone who actually knows something. It’s ridiculous to think he’s not conservative and it’s ridiculous to think he doesn’t know how to negotiate and understand from other view points, especially to accomplish something important, you know, like American interests in the world rather than dictators interests. Of course, with the exception of Schmuckabee, I’d vote for just about anyone with a pulse to get rid of Obama.
Sep 27, 2009 - 9:53 am 49. adnerb:This is beside the point, but I wonder why Vivo and other trolls post here. I assume they read the articles, but their view point never changes. Maybe they are not trolls at all, but computers with liberal sayings programmed into them. They automatically post the next liberal saying here every day regardless of the article. It’s just a thought.
Sep 27, 2009 - 9:56 am 50. Doug:Romney will never be president. It has nothing to do with his religion or age or even his flip flops (he’s the Republican John Kerry, by the way), although the flip flops are part of it. Conservatives simply don’t like or trust him. In 1994 he ran to the left of Ted Kennedy in Mass. And let’s not forget RomneyCare. Add to this the fact that he inspires nobody. He had that pizza joint rally in the DC suburbs and drew, what, a couple dozen people? They had to give away free pizza to get that many to show up. If not for his family fortune and pedigree, we wouldn’t even be talking about him. When he speaks, he does so in a wooden and perfunctory way, coming off as a slick used car salesman.
I’m a conservative and have spoken to many others about 2012. Nobody likes Romney. Sure, we’ll vote for him if he manages to win the nomination (very unlikely), but will we support him with money and volunteer for him? Get serious. We have tried these establishment candidates before: The Bushes, Dole, McCain, etc, and look where it got us. The GOP is done nominating RINOs who will just tinker around the edges and are, in effect, Democrat light. We want a candidate who speaks from the heart, believes what they say, and who’s conservatism is instinctual, not poll-driven. In other words, someone other than Mitt.
DB
Sep 27, 2009 - 10:06 am 51. Annie:Chardon, Ohio
Obama got into office due to the color of his skin. Enough said.
Sep 27, 2009 - 10:08 am 52. ETAB:The problem is, David S., is that Obama’s ‘constituents’ live in a ‘virtual’ or words-only world. They don’t live in the real world.
‘Hope and Change’ are abstract terms and are, in actuality, totally meaningless. The recipient has to ‘fill in the blanks’ himself. This is great for jingoistic campaigns but disastrous in real life where actual steps and specific decisions have to be taken.
Climate change, which has been, heh, changed from its original AGW term, because there’s no scientific proof of that, is therefore not about the climate (which changes constantly) but is an economic strategy to devalue the economic strength of the industrial nations. Those who live in a virtual rather than actual reality will remain fixated on utopian futures but realists are dropping this agenda.
Health care? More and more people are realizing that t 46 million is a blatant lie and that, for some interesting reason, Obama is ignoring the real problems with health care, such as tort reform, crossing state boundaries..and is instead using it to set up a huge take-over of private freedom to set up a govt socialist infrastructure.
Unions are parasites on the workers. They had a role in the 19th c but now, they are themselves massive corporations, with one agenda – to control more workers, get more dues payment..so they can invest and make their CEOs very wealthy. They are deeply harmful to the economy, as we’ve seen in the auto industries.
With regard to ‘on the job training’, if that experience is disastrous, it’s hardly a strong recommendation to continue. So far, Obama’s experience has led to a mindblowing deficit increase, insults to all our foreign partners, with Europe turning its back on US, and France telling Obama to ‘wake up’; that we live in the real world not a virtual world. His lies about health care, his failure to be accountable, his czars and his choice of them, his racism, his incitement of partisanship. Heh..some experience.
I don’t think that most Obama voters are happy with their decision. The Rasmussen index has dropped from its orignal plus 28 to minus 10. His general approval/disapproval has dropped from 65/30 to 48/51. Those are the facts not words. Facts are reality, words are virtual.
Those Tea Parties, despite the left’s attempt (and Obama’s ) to declare they didn’t exist, were and are, real.
As for the recession, as I’m sure you know, the Congress was held by the Demcrats during the last years of Bush’s term, and, their actions were enormously influential in causing the recession.
And what the heck does ‘lifting up the world’ mean? What an incredibly arrogant statement. Sheesh. And, as usual with the left, amorphous, ambiguous and utterly meaningless. Jingoistic bafflegab.
Are you serious? The US ‘hoards prosperity’? Where do you live? In some fictional world? The US donates massive, massive amounts of its prosperity to the world, both via the govt and via private foundations. It’s the chief benefactor of the world.
In addition, its knowledge base is the foundation of the industrial world, for almost all innovations come from the US.
Bush’s agenda of enabling democracy to emerge in the Midde East wasn’t ’self-righteous’ but an agenda to disable islamic fascism, which is caused by tribalism in an industrial size population.
Could you explain how a ‘pro-business’ perspective is completely ‘at odds’ with the best interests of the nation. How does an economy function except within businesses?
And what is wrong with religion, with having a sense of humbleness as human (rather than gods); and a sense of morality and care for fellow human beings? Could you explain what is wrong with this and why it’s bad for the nation?
Oh, and do you think you could stop with the sanctimonious ending of ‘peace’..which is actually a tactic of saying:’Don’t argue with or object to what I’m saying’?
I’ll end with one word for you:
THINK.
That means..don’t just ‘talk words; words are empty’. Think about facts and reality.
Sep 27, 2009 - 10:11 am 53. Anonymous:David S said,
“Obama will win broader support from those who understand the nature of prosperity.”
You’re kidding right? Taxing your way to prosperity is a good idea? Borrowing your way out of debt? Spending your way out of recession? If you really believe those polcies will help the economy, that says a lot about your economic literacy (or lack thereof).
Sep 27, 2009 - 10:32 am 54. Occidental Jihadist:Not sure where Mojo gets his info on party affiliation (well, I have some theories, but this is supposed to be a polite site), but according to Rasmussen data as of 1 Sep 09, the breakdowns are:
Sep 27, 2009 - 10:40 am 55. Ed butt:37.3% Dem and trending down
32.6% GOP and trending up
30.2% Independent/”Unaffiliated,” also trending up
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/partisan_trends
Rasmussen also points out that “Keep in mind that figures reported in this article are for all adults, not Likely Voters. Republicans are a bit more likely to participate in elections than Democrats.”
AND there are numerous other polls showing that the Independents, who really elected BHO, are finally having a massive case of buyer’s remorse.
Hasta la vista to that Congressional Jackass majority next year, Mojo and the rest of you Huffingtonistas.
Best thing for Republicans or any other challenger to do is sit back and watch Obama defeat himself.
Brace yourselves for a rough ride on the economy over the next few months as the Chinese reaction to Obama’s stimulus kicks in.
Sep 27, 2009 - 10:42 am 56. Stephen Brady:Although it’s always an interesting exercise to predict Presidential candidates years in advance, it’s just too soon. We don’t know what will actually happen in the next three years, that will impact upon the outcome of that election.
I have my own preference, based upon a personal friendship. However, friendships are not the best condition to found support for the Presidency on. They can blind you to the negatives of your friend.
There’s only one thing that has to be done, in 2012. Barack Hussein Obama must be defeated, and sent back to his Saul Alinsky lectures at the University of Chicago. Carter II.
I’ve a suggestion: Allow 2010 to play itself out, and then start worrying about 2012.
Kind Regards.
Sep 27, 2009 - 10:46 am 57. Moho:Stephen
I’m never surprised by the mendacity of pro-Republican organs. Nor am I surprised by the eagerness by which knob-ends like occidental jihadist show to believe them. Look here, occidental jihadist, you might be in for a terrible fright:
The article you linked to states:
In August, 37.3% of American adults considered themselves Democrats. Other than July, this is the lowest percentage of Democrats measured since December 2007 (See History of Party Trends from January 2004 to the present).
…
A total of 32.6% now claim an affiliation with the GOP. That’s right in the middle of the range for Republican affiliation over the past year. During the past 12 months, the number of Republicans nationwide has stayed between 32.2% and 33.8% every month.
But interestingly, the article doesn’t give us the average trend for Democrats, but gives us a link instead. They know that fools like Occidental will be satisfied with the implication and won’t ever follow the lnk. But here’s what happens when you do:
Repubs Dems Other
Aug 32.6% 37.3% 30.2% -4.7%
July 33.3% 36.8% 29.9% -3.5%
June 32.2% 38.9% 28.9% -6.7% -6.5%
May 32.6% 39.4% 28.0% -6.8%
Apr 32.6% 38.7% 28.7% -6.1%
Mar 33.2% 38.7% 28.0% -5.5% -7.0%
Feb 33.6% 40.8% 25.6% -7.2%
Jan 32.6% 40.9% 26.6% -8.3%
The average variance for Democrats since March, since Obama began his term, has only varied by 1 percent. In fact, in May it actually rose. When January and February are removed–which they should be, because nothing about Obama’s performance could yet be known–the number of Democrats has stayed exactly the same, not trending downward. Other polls have Republican numbers much lower, anywhere from 23 to 28% as I stated. Look it up yourself.
Sep 27, 2009 - 11:12 am 58. don:Election time opening lines will also deal with what has not happened yet, namely future recent history. Possible issues for the elections could be such cogent one liners as “Who lost Afghanistan?” (The necessary “good war” is apparently now a “war of choice” for President Obama and the democrats. Or, “Who allowed Iran to have the Bomb?” (True, there is a rich and varied selection of international characters to be blamed here, but only the U.S could have prevented it militarily–the current administration SOP seems to be “live and let live:” besides, Americans don’t live in Israel anyway, and the conflict was always the Jew’s fault. ) Or, “Who forced the doctors to quit?” (True, the health care reform promised free universal care, but thousands of doctors retired early to forgo the income cuts while doctors who remained increasingly declined to take medicare patients. Due to declining doctors and an increasing population of elders, medical premium costs skyrocketed while access to medical care bottlenecked.) The future is looking good, love that change.
Sep 27, 2009 - 11:14 am 59. annie:I can’t vote repub or demo at this time. I am pro-choice,non-christian, white, middle class. I don’t believe in welfare except in the emergency cases. I don’t believe in affirmative action at all. I think you must read a bill before you pass it. Both sides must have a say, not only the “I won” side. This is a Republic, or was.
You may not like Romney, but he was second in the polls after McCain, Huckabee was 3rd. I’d rather see Joe the Plumber president than Obama or someone like mcCain.
I still do not understand how Obama made it past vetting. He is dangerous to the freedoms of America. Obama and prosperity are two words that do not go in the same sentence. He is jealous of prosperous Americans, and obviously vindictive.
Obama is a disgrace to even call American, and I don’t believe he is American. the fact that he was of African decent is the only reason he got elected.
So, who will the Republicans put up? If they’re not careful, there will be a third party candidate that will cause real voting problems and Obama’s black block will vote him back in.
I see real potential for a race war in the near future. Our country is full of dis-respect for the rules of society, and self-destruction. Our prisons are gull and overflowing. ( the prisons are a real sore point too. Too much excess. They need to be spartan and strict, instead we have hives of gangs. Heaven forbid they do not have their color tv or “me” time.) As I said prisons are a real sore spot, however, they are also indicative of our society. ACLU be damned.
Everyday we get phoney big toothed speeches from politicians. It’s always the fault of the “other side”. Time to elect someone that will take on the mantel of responsibility. where oh were could they be…I haven’t seen them yet. You know, one of those “tingle down my leg” candidates… Agreed, unions are parasite.
Sep 27, 2009 - 11:34 am 60. steveg:The first step in slowing down the progressive fascist movement is winning in Virginia and New Jersey this year.
Sep 27, 2009 - 11:35 am 61. AThinkingPerson:The Right could run a toothpick and a used coffee cup against Obama at this point and win. I’m still amazed at how quickly Obama flamed out. His poll numbers drop every time the poor oaf even opens his mouth.
At this point I’m open to any and all suggestions about a Conservative candidate. Keep ‘em coming. We’ve got all the time in the world to decide. With Obama now backtracking on HIS OWN Afghanistan policy, Iran doing missile tests, Israel promising to protect itself, the economy in the tank, and unemployment rising, Obama would be doing good at this point to even show his face to run for a second term himself.
Sep 27, 2009 - 11:44 am 62. M. Simon:Romney Care
Sep 27, 2009 - 11:44 am 63. Grover:Don’t know anything about Pawlenty, but the others are in some sense elitist. Even so, would like Huckabee, but he is a social liberal (remember his position on amnesty for ILLEGALS?).
Sep 27, 2009 - 11:45 am 64. M. Simon:Only Sarah Palin survives as the genuine grass-roots article. No elitism, no cronyism, just an honest to goodness American, who loves her country and WILL defend the Constitution.
When the Big O campaigned, she in fact did have more experience than him. She in fact DID cut McCain’s losses from double digits to single digits in a very short time. The only thing in the way of a McCain victory was McCain himself or his handlers who were directly responsible for Sarah’s interviews with the MSM. If only they had asked Obama the same questions!
Palin in 2012!
NYTs reports on an Obama voter at Palin’s Hong Kong speech:
She Is Bright – They Are Stuck On Stupid
Sep 27, 2009 - 11:46 am 65. Blackwater:I also think Gingrich would be an excellent choice. But it doesn’t seem like he’s all that interested in running. Although I’m sure he could be convinced to run if the country really needed his leadership. Any time Gingrich speaks I listen. He always has something interesting to say even though I don’t always agree with him. He’s extremely knowledgable and I think he would make a fine president who would always put America first in international affairs and would reform corruption and wasteful spending in government just like he did in Congress. He lead the conservative revolution in Congress in the mid 1990s which got all kinds of great results like welfare reform.
Sep 27, 2009 - 11:50 am 66. AThinkingPerson:Re Moho: When you have to figure in variances to make your point about Obama, you’ve already lost. Why not figure in that ACORN last minute push again while you’re at it? Seemed to work so well for him last time! The union vote is not a sure thing for him this time. We’ll have to wait and see if he hangs them out to dry with the rest of working America when he forces us all onto government health care.
Face it Moho, you’ve attached your boxcar to a loser train and we all know where it’s headed. How Obama can even look Americans in the face after paying off the Unions, tanking the economy, letting unemployment go over 9% and basically tell Israel to F**k OFF while handing over all of the US security on a platter to Russia is beyond all belief. He’s a disaster. One of these days you’ll realize the folly of your Obama cheerleading. How long did it take you to forget the Carter years or are you still hoping for some revisionist history?
Sep 27, 2009 - 11:53 am 67. Paul A'Barge:B. Hussein Obama, You Lie!
Sep 27, 2009 - 11:58 am 68. ETAB:No, moho, it isn’t a nefarious plot by Rasmussen to denigrate Democrats. Tables, of, for example, trends, are always linked within the body of the analysis.
The table, by the way, is quite clear. If you want to discount Jan/Feb, then, the ratio of Democrats is NOT exactly the same. 37.3 is not the same as 38.7. Even though you say it is.
What is interesting is the trends. In 2008, the Democrat ratio rose to a high of 41.7, while the GOP fell to a low of 31.4. That’s quite a range between the two – and far wider than the current range of 37.3 and 32.6. These two ratios seem to be the base core of the two parties for they are fairly steady over the years.
However, the ratio to watch is the independents – and they voted Obama in. Their ratio is flexible rather than set. It is now increasing and when they increase, Congress changes its majority party.
Sep 27, 2009 - 11:59 am 69. Buffoon:Completely unrelated, but every time I read at PJ I stand in awe of whomever designed and maintains the site. By far the cleanest, symmetrically correct site on the web…
My quick thought on 2012? Well Ted Nugent of course….
Sep 27, 2009 - 12:12 pm 70. Sonny99:I like Peg C.’s idea to use Sarah as a stalking horse running interference for a true conservative (a little libertarian in him/her would be a plus for me) because I also agree with Peg’s affection for the lady from Wasilla. She may be unelectable for several years because of liberal hate of her. Coupled with republican treachery, she is likely to be pilloried. Sarah’s a true American patriot, though, and would act in the country’s best interest.
Sep 27, 2009 - 12:18 pm 71. Akatsukami:“Sheila Bair, head of the FDIC
[...]2. She is more knowledgeable and more personable than Obama”
With no disrespect intended towards Ms. Bair, can you name someone in national politics of whom this is not true?
Sep 27, 2009 - 12:27 pm 72. Avitar:Mitt Romney has a very big endorsement. The DNC! They got the Republican Nomination for Dole in 95 and McCain in 2008. They are trying to get it for Mitt Romney in 2012.
Sep 27, 2009 - 12:36 pm 73. Slithering toward 2012. « Sleepy Old Bear Diaries:Mr. Romney however did such a stinking job as Governor of Massachusetts I do not see him being elected inside man at the skunk works. That health care system Massachusetts now suffers under should result in criminal convictions of the people who put it in place. A Governor has a duty to veto things like that. If he got back to Massachusetts and takes Kennedy’s seat in the special election much could be forgiven for a Vice President Romney someday with a more conservative leading the ticket.
[...] Here. [...]
Sep 27, 2009 - 12:37 pm 74. Moho:the ratio of Democrats is NOT exactly the same. 37.3 is not the same as 38.7. Even though you say it is.
Ha. Ha. Brilliant manuever. Yes, that one percent, which is negated by the margin of error proves your point most definitely.
Sep 27, 2009 - 12:54 pm 75. EscapeVelocity:My favorite Presidential Candidates for 2012 GOP are
Newt Gingrich
Sep 27, 2009 - 12:57 pm 76. Sallie:Fred Thompson
Obama treats us like we are interfering with his job.n We need someone that will not care what the MSM is up to , congress or such and talk directly to us.
hahahah you laugh at Ted Nugent…the man is a gift!!!! yeeeaaah TED!!
Sep 27, 2009 - 1:26 pm 77. postaldog:No one who has already run for president will be a good candidate in the next election. The liberal media, which will still dominate the public airwaves will air neverending attacks, bringing up everything that doomed those candidates before, while glossing over, if not out right lying, about what Obama has/hasn’t done in office. Conservatives best bet is to find a new face, and back him or her to the hilt. Sarah, Mitt, Huck and the rest would serve the cause best as fund raisers and surrogate pugilists to help whoever looks like the best “new” candidate.
Sep 27, 2009 - 1:27 pm 78. arhooley:59. annie:
I know what you mean about having no party to call home given your positions on the issues. But despite being socially liberal, I’ve voted for socially conservative Republicans since 9/11. There are plenty of ways besides voting to wage those battles, which is a good thing for both sides.
Sep 27, 2009 - 1:32 pm 79. ETAB:moho- then, say, right from the start, that the margin of error, which is usually +/-3, negates that difference. And then, do the same for the GOP, and the data will show that the GOP is holding steady over the past 3-4 years while the Democrats, which rose to a high of 41.7% in 2008, are bleeding away.
Both parties are back to their core constituents – and the set that is rising, taking its numbers, not from the GOP but from the Democrats, is the Independents.
And when that Set rises, it predicts a change in the majority in Congress. Think about that.
Sep 27, 2009 - 1:42 pm 80. Sapwolf:The next GOP POTUS candidate must have courage, libertarian/conservative beliefs/actions, charismatic, honesty/trustworthiness, common sense, appeal to many, and MUST be an outsider of the DC corruption and inside the beltway world.
Sarah Palin is the only one even close.
If you want to know what she stands for, simply read the excerpts from her speech in Hong Kong. That is who she is.
Read it.
Sep 27, 2009 - 1:47 pm 81. George B:Let the MSM and less informed voters focus on the 2012 presidential election. The real action is now in 2009 and 2010. The state legislators and governors elected this year and the next will control redistricting after the 2010 census. Conservatives elected to congress in 2010 will minimize the damage caused Obama, Pelosi, and Reid. Any presidential candidate who works to help conservatives win local races deserves a closer look in 2011 and 2012.
Sep 27, 2009 - 1:51 pm 82. Sapwolf:One thing I’m noticing about posters here is how intimidated they are from the SRM.
If you don’t fight the leftist press, how do you expect to win?
Sep 27, 2009 - 1:51 pm 83. Rich:We need a lot less Washinton. I’d vote for anybody who promised to do nothing except what is constitutionally required.
Sep 27, 2009 - 2:09 pm 84. Dred Scott:Now Obama wants to turn each school into a year-round madrasah?
Sep 27, 2009 - 2:13 pm 85. TOhio:The fight right now is 2010. We need to take back control of the Congress and get rid of RINOs. The focus needs to be on 2010 because if we don’t take care of this, it will not matter who runs in 2012.
Sep 27, 2009 - 2:22 pm 86. DaveinPhoenix:Palin/Romney 2012
Sep 27, 2009 - 2:25 pm 87. EconRob:What the Dems did last year was get smart and go for the one they thought would win. The GOP must do the same this year. Obama is so bad even McCain looks good. F-T-F get rid of Obama.
Sep 27, 2009 - 2:46 pm 88. twoninerkilo:I would love to see Palin as CiC but can she win? Not sure. But that is the question. All you FreeRepublic goons and your RINO carping ain’t going to cut it this time around. Anyone honestly think that Romney or Rudy or Palin or even the Huck would not go a long way to restoring the freedom after 4 years of Obama is a nut-case. And probably single issue – anti-abortion.
I agree with Steve#17, and Annie#59. Right now all we have to look at are a bunch of RINO has- beens. Most are probably corrupt, having been around special interests to long. Don’t get to excited about Sarah; did you forget her speech on Univision last year? Oh! You didn’t hear her promising amnesty to 30 million illegal parasites, ready to turn this country into a third world sh!thole?
Sep 27, 2009 - 2:54 pm 89. whyyeseyec:Palentys’ got the beady eyed look of another G. Bush compassionate conservative,his record on illegal immigration is not to hot either. I don’t know about the rest of you, but I don’t want to go through another fight like that again with another RINO jerk. I wouldn’t trust that little prick not to try it.
Well folks that leaves us with Hillary, hiding behind the drapes, (where Barack seems to want to keep her), with a dagger; ready to slit the Ones’ throat, the minute she thinks she has enough on him to sink his nomination in 2012. Look for Hillary to resign way before 2012. Then Bill and Hill will put distance between themselves, and the administration. She’ll drop the bomb on him before he can say Aunt Jamima as soon as primary season starts.
Take my word for it, that evil b!tch would cut her mothers thoat to be President. The resulting split in the party, (blacks would stick with their boy even if he was caugh red handed passing secretes to Bin Ladin),should be enough to restore some sanity to the White House.Barring this event,(and I’m not so sure it’s not just wishful thinking, you haven’t heard the last of the Clintons), We can only hope that some honest citizen steps forward to run for the nomination. If not, God help us all.
Yes, 2008 was a historic year #15. Americans voted for the color of a man`s skin instead of the content of his character.
We are now reaping what was sowed….
Sep 27, 2009 - 3:05 pm 90. steveg:Conservatives outnumber liberals 2 to 1. We are so far behind the left in organization that we need to take some dramatic moves. The leftstream media along with Hollywood and the music industry has impacted american thinking for the last two generations, and they need to be exposed. Any media outlet pro-american, pro-capitalist or pro-military is labeled controversial by the leftstream media.
This may sound extreme, but I suggest the following to combat the secular progressive left-wing movement:
1) Call out celebrities on their anti-capitalist, socialist stance. Demand outspoken leftist celebrities (actors,directors,musicians,etc.) and news anchors give up their property and personal wealth to the poor. Perform a reverse Alinsky on them. Shame them into giving up their wealth for the better good of America and the poor.
2) Pressure the leftstream media to hire more moderate, and conservative reporters, and anchors. America is 80% moderate/conservative, and we should demand a more diverse of thought in the media.
3) Put pressure on General Electric. GE owns NBC Universal, and is a left-wing sound machine, and need to be expose it as a tool for the Obama administration. GE will benefit greatly from healthcare reform, and cap and trade becoming law. This is the over the top crony capitalism that angers most americans.
Sep 27, 2009 - 3:10 pm 91. Moho:Twoninkerloo: YOu said: She’ll drop the bomb on him before he can say Aunt Jamima as soon as primary season starts.
Thanks for disqualifying yourself from having anything relevant to say. Often you idiots wait until the end to add what your real problem with Obama is. But kudos to you for putting dead in the middle.
Sep 27, 2009 - 3:28 pm 92. steveg:Ronald Reagan won 49 states, and 60% of the national vote in 1984. I have a hard time believing the country has changed that much in a quarter of a century.
Unfortunately the GOP leadership thinks so.
Sep 27, 2009 - 3:28 pm 93. twoninerkilo:Moho#97: Are you sure that’s not AHOLE? With the flack I’m catching from the libtard gallery, I must be over the target! Come out of your mamas basement some day and smell the coffee. It does wonders to clear the head too, and by reading some of your posts, your in dire need of head clearing.
Sep 27, 2009 - 4:04 pm 94. twoninerkilo:EconRob#87 Just let the Republicans come up with another RINO like McChump, and watch how fast I tell the RNC to f$#k off when they come looking for money; just like I did last year. I’ll sit home again and watch the next pathetic jerk RINO fry in his own fat if they try that. If they didn’t get the message last time, God help them, cause I sure as hell wont. I’m not asking for another Regan, just an honest person who agrees with me most of the time; not some smarmy little weasle, with open contemp for conservatives. I wont vote for the lesser of two evils ever again. Never!
Sep 27, 2009 - 4:31 pm 95. Moho:twinkerloo: Yeah, I’m sure. That was pretty easy.
As for Steveg. There’s no qualitative component to suggesting you take a look at census figures. In fact, the entire discourse in 2008 was about how much the country had changed since 1984. You can know about it, or you can insist on ignorance. I know the latter is the hallmark of your party affiliation, but just also know that’s what makes you state such incredibly stupid opinions.
Sep 27, 2009 - 5:03 pm 96. vivo:49. adnerb:
“but I wonder why Vivo and other trolls post here. I assume they read the articles, but their view point never changes.”
Why would i change something that is right?
Sep 27, 2009 - 5:12 pm 97. Sallie:My “real” problem with Obama is I think he’s dishonest.
If you do not vote the other side wins.
My “real” problem with Obama is I think he’s dishonest.
Republicans lost last time due to a couple of things. One of which is many republicans did not vote as a form of protest. The left came out in full force and took many repubs with them. I have read that many whites voted for Obama with a “guilt” vote..GUILT?? over what??? I feel no guilt, and that’s a fact!! I do not understand a guilt vote here.
My “real” problem with Obama is I think he’s dishonest.
“They” voted for the color of a man’s skin. Totally disgusing.
My “real” real problem with Obama is I think he’s dishonest.
it is important that every working person votes. they can vote absentee. Forget those stay at home protest votes, that’s one of the ways we got here. We need to fight back against the MSM…however possible…
My “real” problem with Obama is I think he’s dishonest.
I think Palin could sink the left. I don’t know that she has such lofty aspirations as running again , but I will certainly look and consider whomever she backs. The campaign cannot be based on abortion alone. it’s really a side bar at this point.
Did I mention my real problem with Obama is I think he’s dishonest??
Sep 27, 2009 - 5:23 pm 98. myth buster:David S. it doesn’t matter if MOST Obama voters are happy with their choice. Even if 90% of people who voted for him in 2008 vote for him again, he loses unless he can replace the other 10%. This never was and never will be a battle to change the hearts of the majority of his supporters- 10% will be more than enough.
Sep 27, 2009 - 6:50 pm 99. A.M. Mallett:poor Mohobius … it’s terrible to be caught as a liar …
1. Moho:
I see you people have given up on health care. I wonder why that is…can it be that the numbers didn’t actually change. And your assault on logic and decency failed, leaving you people with nothing but stinkface?
Read it and weep:
Plurality of Republicans support Public Option!
http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_health_care_092409.pdf?tag=contentMain;contentBody
Isn’t it wonderful? The one thing you need to know about liberals and the liberal press is that they reflexively lie in order to advance their agenda.
From the last page of the aforementioned “poll”
Total Republicans 289 234 (22%)
Total Democrats 357 385 (37%)
Total Independents 396 423 (41%)
Personally, if they had called me I would have hung up.
Sep 27, 2009 - 7:11 pm 100. Moho:Really, Sallie: And you think Palin is honest? You’re exactly the kind of constituent they’re looking for. Someone with absolutely no critical thinking skills.
Sep 27, 2009 - 7:15 pm 101. Article VI Blog » Byron York opens the 2012 discussion on “the Mormon factor”:[...] [...]
Sep 27, 2009 - 8:05 pm 102. BC:“The American people were had.”
Very true, but that was back in 2000 and even more so in 2004. Electing Obama was actually a return to rationality, sorry. So far the vast bulk of complaints and accusations against Obama have been out and out malicious and/or nutcase BS unsupported by anything resembling reality. You slack jawed numbnuts deserve even more of a spanking in 2012 than you got in 2008 if you keep up your rock and temper tantrum throwing behavior. *My* real problem with you guys is that you seem to be absolutely bound and determined to be part of the problem and never, ever part of any solution — aka “The Bad Guys.”
Sep 27, 2009 - 8:20 pm 103. Dutch:“It turns out experience matters.” How surprising! And who of the leading republicans has it?? Romney stands head and shoulders above the others.
Sep 27, 2009 - 8:36 pm 104. Bryan:I read in The 5000-Year Leap that one of the founders described the manner of man (or woman) we should vote for, and that those men and women would have talent and virtue. I find the best combination of the two in Mitt Romney. I could be wildly wrong, but there is no public evidence to the contrary of which I am aware. I do like Palin as well. I like some of the more obscure names as well like Jindal. Who knows? Anything’s possible, and there’s time.
Sep 27, 2009 - 10:26 pm 105. Now and Then:75. EscapeVelocity:
“My favorite Presidential Candidates for 2012 GOP are Newt Gingrich and Fred Thompson.”
Well, you got a pretty good shot at one of em being a family values guy, given that they have five families between em.
Sep 27, 2009 - 11:00 pm 106. steveg:The GOP has a rising star in Marco Rubio. A U.S. senate seat in 2010 will lead to a presidential run in 2016.
Sep 28, 2009 - 6:24 am 107. Now and Then:106. steveg:
“The GOP has a rising star in Marco Rubio. A U.S. senate seat in 2010 will lead to a presidential run in 2016.”
That’d be fine, but Rubio was born in Guatamala.
Sep 28, 2009 - 6:36 am 108. urbanleftbehind:#88
Good point on SP’s ambivalence on amnesty….how do you think she got to be McCain’s running mate in the first place. And woundnt a real conservative just decline Univision loudly? Alaska would become the new Idaho, thats why. Real sharp people remember this. Duncan Hunter would have “complimented” McCain all the way to the White House.
#107
That may be true, but hasnt a Kenyan been president already? Rubio would still be better than whats there now.
Back in 2008 I liked some variation of Gingrich/Giuliani. I do think people will value grey-haired experience once again. I still say watch Sonny Perdue paired with one of the new Governor Class of ‘10.
Sep 28, 2009 - 7:42 am 109. narciso:Except that her state’s guard units weredeployed
Sep 28, 2009 - 11:11 am 110. myth buster:on the Mexican border. She wants the laws to be enforced, but there should be some provision for assimilation. She was following McCain’s lead on the issue, which in retrospect was a mistake. Rubio is of Cuban not Guatemalan extraction, Hillary has revealed she didn’t mean any of it, when she was running for office, ultimately her Secretary of State post will be as much of a dead end as that of Williams Jenning Bryan,Any other lies,
misimpressions to correct
Romney does not stand head and shoulders above Mike Huckabee in terms of experience. Huckabee was a Governor for 10.5 years to Romney’s 4, winning reelection twice compared to Romney not running for reelection. Romney is also NOT a man of integrity; he’s half the empty suit Obama is, though perhaps less of a narcissist. Mitt Romney is FAIL, which is why he came in THIRD in last year’s primaries despite spending double what both his main rivals spent COMBINED.
Sep 28, 2009 - 11:34 am 111. Dutch:Romney “myth”?
1. To say that Romney is “not of man of integrity” is foolish to anyone who knows anything about him. And anyone who has any integrity himself, and is honest in supporting the conservative cause, would not resort to such petty name calling; leave that to the libs.
2. As for Huckabee having more governor experience, I don’t see that as a positive. By “experience” we need real world success. No more career politicians (empty suits by definition?)
Sep 28, 2009 - 12:11 pm 112. Middleman:Maybe if Palin were to become president, she can help redistribute some of that Alaskan oil money it’s residents receive to include residents of the lower 48. Also she can help other states in maximizing the federal funding they receive like Alaska has.
One hand wagging that finger at Washington, while the other is in the cookie jar.
Sep 28, 2009 - 12:22 pm 113. james:God help us one and all if Romney gets the nomination. The last thing we will need after the smoking wreckage of the Obama term is a meddling technocrat who’s already given us Romneycare. We are going to need a counter-revolutionary who will dismantle, quickly, everything that these radical black liberation theology marxists have built. Romney is a fine man for normal times; he is exactly and catastrophically wrong for what we are going to face after 2012. We are going to need someone who brings nuclear weapons to a gun fight and who says things like, “We’re not interested in government fixes. We’re interested in freedom.” In other words, we are going to need Sarah Palin.
Sep 28, 2009 - 1:12 pm 114. Romneycare?:I’m a conservative, maybe even a libertarian. And I’m sure somebody here may stear me straight. BUT, I wish we conservatives could see a way to try and provide health care to the less fortunate.
As the richest nation on earth it seems that we can somehow arrange to make this critically important necessity available to most. Romney did his best to do this in a liberal state. As president I’m sure he could improve on his first try, in a way that conservatives could support.
Repubicans would be unbeatable if we proposed this. It’s the right thing to do.
Sep 28, 2009 - 3:46 pm 115. james:Sorry Romneycare?, but you are not conservative. If you were you would understand that there is very definitely a way to improve health coverage and the republicans have proposed many of them: buy insurance across state lines, change the tax status of individuals to equal that of coroporations, and so forth. But none of this is about heatlh care: it is only about dictatorial control.
Sep 28, 2009 - 5:26 pm 116. Roger:I repeat, there is no chance that you’re conservative. You may be A conservative, but you’re not one. If you know what I mean. Liberals, like Romney, are always saying we need to do more of what they failed at to get it right. No more.
Wow if he is gearing up already then that already shows the commit that he is all about. More than likely he will run and I wouldn’t be surprised if he turned out to be the republican party’s candidate with mccain as old as he is. He’ll be the rights hero I’m pretty sure when he runs.
You say batman I saw vawncast
Sep 28, 2009 - 6:45 pm 117. Robohobo:The absolutely best saying I have heard is this:
(h/t Subotai Bahadur)
By the time 2012 rolls around, if the US has not been hit by a terrorist act, then BHO, The Won, will have self destructed.
Sep 28, 2009 - 11:06 pm 118. Romneycare?:James’ comment is dumb. Who is this guy to say I’m not conservative? Another name caller like the libs. Who of us isn’t aware of the Republican ideas to improve health care (including Romney).
Sep 29, 2009 - 9:14 am 119. myth buster:These Rupublican/Conservative ideas must be implimented by a smart, capable president with conservative/family values. Palin, even Huckabee, Romney, et al, could all do this. It’s foolish for us to generate the hatred between us that the libs are known for, instead of honestly looking for the best we can get elected.
Romney is on the record during the 2008 primaries as saying, “I am the only Republican candidate still married to his first wife.” That is slander, plain and simple, considering that Huckabee and Paul are both still married to their first wives (I don’t recall when he said this, so I don’t remember if any of the minor candidates were still in the race at the time, or what their family backgrounds are).
Sep 29, 2009 - 9:42 pm 120. myth generator:myth generator — Give it a rest. Romney didn’t “slander” anybody. He was making a joke. He said that as a Mormon (old beliefs in polygamy) he was the only one (between him, McCain, Thompson, and ??) who had had only one wife.
Sep 30, 2009 - 9:54 pm 121. Watch 2012 Online:Are you a fool? Or are you the slanderer?
Restricting energy is a huge tax on each household. Your electric bill will be more than your mortgage.
Oct 7, 2009 - 8:06 pm 122. white tiger:Anybody but Ms. Palin, please!
Vulgar, amoral, brainless. On a scale of 1 to 10 she’s a 1.4.
My candidate will again be Dr. Alan Keyes.
But, if Netanyahu or Lee Kwan Yew were eligible, I’d side with him.
Why not offer the congressional health plan to all legal residents at government expense? That’s a one-page solution to the problem. A true, one payer system. Why does a twit like Barney Frank, or a sociopath like Pelosi deserve better medical care than your mom?
Nov 9, 2009 - 7:12 pm 123. Dan:Mitt Romney is who we need to turn our great country around! He’s been turning around disastrous situations his entire adult life and America needs Mitt more than ever before.
Nov 24, 2009 - 6:56 pm