The Next Round in Iraq
With U.S. forces having left Iraqi cities, the battle for the nation's future enters a new and challenging phase.
In Iraq, the legacies of the Bush and Obama administrations have become intertwined. Should Iraq spiral into chaos and the U.S. not intervene to save it, the war in Iraq will go down as a massive blunder in the history books, both for the man who started it and the man who was elected to responsibly end it. As U.S. forces complete the withdrawal from Iraq’s cities, the enemies of the West and of Iraq’s democracy are gearing up for the next round in the battle of the Middle East.
The decline in the number of foreign fighters entering Iraq via Syria has been widely reported, but the fact that such transit remains available to them indicates this is due to a changed strategy in pursuit of the same objective, not a sudden change of heart. The Assad regime of Syria is still trying to destabilize Iraq, but at the same time modifies its behavior to maximize the benefits from the U.S. desire to develop a better relationship. While the U.S. has decided to send an ambassador to Syria, the Assad regime has reactivated the pipeline used by terrorists, including al-Qaeda in Iraq, to deadly effect. Although the flow isn’t back to its height of 100 entering Iraq per month, the number has increased to 20 from the fewer than a dozen that were entering recently.
Ahead of the completion of the U.S. withdrawal from Iraqi cities, there has been an expected increase in attacks. This indicates that the fluctuations in the number transiting Syria may be a reflection of where al-Qaeda and like-minded terrorists have decided to invest their resources, rather than flip-flops on the part of Syria. Faced with defeat following the surge, al-Qaeda began focusing on Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, and Somalia. Now, with U.S. troops leaving, they see an opportunity to reassert themselves in Iraq and possibly gain back some of the tremendous amount of prestige and morale that has been lost since 2007.
This is probably a futile effort on the part of al-Qaeda. The Iraqi Security Forces have proven resilient and have not dissolved in the face of growing casualties and responsibilities. The Iraqis are eager to take their country back and are confident of their abilities, as demonstrated by the elected government’s decisive act of sovereignty when negotiating the Status of Forces Agreement with the Bush administration, which the Obama administration is now implementing. The threat of a civil war has subsided, as relatively few sectarian attacks are occurring and the ones that do take place fail to spark a cycle of violence. The Iraqi government is even offering about $1,800 for Sunni and Shiite couples that get married, encouraging the intermarriages between the sects that often occurred in the past but were never brought up amid the clamoring that a civil war was inevitable or had erupted.
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Ryan Mauro is the founder of WorldThreats.com and the director of intelligence at the Asymmetrical Warfare and Intelligence Center (AWIC). He’s also the national security researcher for the Christian Action Network and a published author. He can be contacted at TDCAnalyst@aol.com.
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5 Comments
1. Professor Guvinoff:Nobody can predict how things will evolve in Iraq, but I think there is one dimension which has been overlooked: The american presence has left a strong mark on the children. 20 years from now, today’s iraqi children will be the new wave of national energy. Their fears and aspirations will shape the outcome. If they can shed the fatalistic attitudes of their elders, there will be a durable transformation.
In the meantime, the huge potential for unrest in Iran and China may well result in more “news-worthy” developments. GWB’s initiative was a bold gamble whose ultimate outcome will be unknown for quite a while, which is why those who bet that is was a “total failure” and those who profess that it was the right thing to do are so ardent in their equally unprovable predictions.
In any case, discrediting Al-Qaeda and its cohorts in the eyes of the muslim societies was, and still is, the urgent task, and so far it seems to me their stock has lost it former luster!
Jul 28, 2009 - 8:31 am 2. Peggy:I agree with the good Professor: the effect of this war and the soldiers that fought it on the children of Iraq is a force to be reckoned with. My husband was in Ramadi at the start of the “awakening” and most of the pictures he sent home had lots of children in them and the soldiers interacting with them in a positive way. My husband is 6′5″ and most of his body was covered in digi and weapons–the only part of him that showed was his two adorable dimples and wide smile. That was enough to draw the kids to him. Never again will those children believe that American Soldiers are monsters. It make take 20 years, but change will come.
Jul 28, 2009 - 10:55 pm 3. Peter Montbriand:I love the optimism that the previous commenters had/have. Alas, the fatalism is part of Middle East culture and is central to islam. I’m not as optimistic. I don’t think there has been nearly enough reconciliation between the groups(Sunni, Shiite, Kurds, and the assorted others). I fear it will require significant numbers of American personel for a lonnnngggggg time to make sure our investment of billions and more importantly, the investment of american blood will pay off. Cultural changes require cataclysmic events and/or long time periods to happen. Has the liberation and presence of Americans for approximately 7 years been enough? I have strong doubts, I’m sorry to admit. BTW, I’m a radical free-willer, I have no time for fatalism. Free will is what makes us “made in the image of God”.
Jul 29, 2009 - 12:47 am 4. Peggy:Typo: It MAY take 20 years…
Jul 29, 2009 - 8:14 am 5. WhyamInotsurprised?:#1 Professor, I don’t think anyone is betting for or against. Dem’s wanted Bush to fail period. Barry wants America to fail period. Bush wanted democracy and peace to have a chance (to paraphrase John Lennon) in the middle east and he made a down payment in that direction.
I agree with #3 Peter that I am not optimistic especially when our current Fearless Reader wants to disengage when this kind of effort would require continuing support and effort for at least a couple generations to bear fruit. This is a long time. Bush said it would be a long time but unfortunately did not specify. Americans don’t have a long attention span, even for marriage. But the geo-political/economic consequences of this gamble will affect future generations.
Simply pulling out according to a political timeline is like Clinton withdrawing from Somalia because we didn’t like the cost involved. It totally wastes the investments made to that point. And at this point would make the 4,500 American lives and other allied lives an investment that will not see fruit. Unlike, #2 Peggy (and I do thank her and her husband for their service) I don’t believe that the smiles will remain in the memories for long after the atrocities to be visited on them by Al Qaeda and the Taliban.
The worst part is that they, AQ and Taliban are kin to Our Dear Leader, they are freedom fighters of the world, the oppressed, the poor, fighting against American imperialism and we should apologize more and eventually suffer and pay for our sins. To bad Barry doesn’t learn that these people never build anything, just destroy and kill. That is Islam today.
Jul 29, 2009 - 11:14 pm