“Sometimes in life one sees something unfold that is irrational and inexplicable, until after the fact when the Monday morning quarterbacks get to put their 2 cents in.”

I agree with your view; what HAS NOT been discussed is the women vote. First Presidential where a woman can be elected. I don’t think the Polling Data has fully taken this in view. The Media is pushing for the first black President even though he is an EMPTY SUIT. They have been completely blind to the first Woman elected as Vice President.

Earlier today I commented to a coworker that I thought the Democrat/Republican poll weighting assumed too much advantage for Democrats. He observed that polling companies need to be accurate enough to get future business. A somewhat cynical person would say that the optimum poll model would favor Democrats by enough to allow the customer, media organizations, to write the stories they want to write while being close enough to reality to justify future business. This plus experience with the 2000 and 2004 elections suggests that McCain will outperform the latest state polls, but probably not by enough to change who moves into the White House.

Dude, warn me before you do something like that! Do you know how expensive it is to replace a shorted-out flat-panel LCD after you do a spit take all over it?!?

You only need to look at how Nate decided to change his “method of allocating undecided votes” in to see how seriously partisan Nate is. He’s so far in the tank that he can’t even see the surface any longer.

Why, that’s five yards short of common sense.

I’m drinking Miller, right now.

That’s living the “High Life.”

Good luck anyway, it’s not over for ya yet.

The vice ambassador should come speak to young American Obama voters. The two in front of me in the polling line today apparently believe that Obama execretes lollipops and the world will be filled with cuddly bunnies and dancing unicorns when he enters the White House.

Americans will wake up – if not today, at some point within the next 4 years. And when the Obamessiah crashes, he will crash hard. Unfortunately, we might all go with him.

Its a very long and detailed post, which if true, will make Western Penn. the bell weather to watch if there is to be an upset. The keystone state may well be the bump in the road which upsets the “Ones” victory chariot.

A mild example of the current contest, and a possible harbinger of a similar result, was the second Dinkins- Giuliani NYC mayoral race.

All the polls had Dinkins ahead, the exit polls showed him ahead by +3, and all the networks declared the mayor the winner.
In the morning, I woke up to the radio announcer saying that Giuliani had won. Even the exit polls had been off by at least 4 %.
The reason, in retrospect, was clear; A significant number of voters were not comfortable telling the pollsters that they did not vote for the black candidate in a racially charged caampaign where the media was in the tank for the black candidate.
Just recently the racial charge was preemptively launched by Chris Matthews on MSNBC, Joel Klein, Erica Jong and others.
Look for the exit polls to be incorrect not in states like New Hampshire, which is homogenously white, but in states such as Pennsylvania,Florida,Ohio and yes Virginia, where there exists both large moderate white population centers and also politically self-confident black urban areas.

In other words, no one knows who is favored, as the polls are not accurate, but I believe McCain has the edge given Obama’s radical associations and unconventional past.