Pajamas Media

185 Comments

1. jeff:

McCain’s problems are largely self-inflicted. At a time when the GOP’s brand is already unpopular, he’s chosen to distance himself from the Republican mainstream on the one issue — immigration — where the overwhelming majority of Americans support a conservative approach.

By supporting amnesty, McCain not only cripples himself but drags down the Congressional party as well, despite the fact that most congressional Republicans want less illegal immigration, not more. If the GOP loses heavily in the House and Senate this year, McCain’s attitude towards his own base will be a major factor.

Jun 12, 2008 - 1:37 am 2. lee:

I’m more interested in head to head stat in swing states. California and New York will vote for Obama no in droves.

Jun 12, 2008 - 2:06 am 3. Tom:

The possibility of a terrorist attack within the US exists but the the
chances are very low. Those who would do such a thing have a great
friend in Obama. Why would they chance wrecking his chances for a sweep
when all they have to do is sit back and watch? The only tactic would be
to scare people away from voting Republican. But at this point it would
be more likely to rebuild the resolve of the American people many of fallen
asleep to the threat of political Islam. Since Obama would open the gates
to what they want why would they wake people up?

Jun 12, 2008 - 2:27 am 4. John Samford:

That wrong track, right track nonsense is just that, nonsense.
Along those lines why is the media always going on about President Bush’s 30% approval rating as if it is a death sentence yet never mentions that Congress has an approval rating BELOW 20%.
It’s called media bias and is the direct result of Dr. Goebbels work on propaganda.
You must also look at the (t) factor. Politics is a vector problem. When the polls say something is just as important as what they say. In early June of ‘04 Kerry was ahead. Ditto for Gore.
Sites like this are for political junkies. The democratic party has MORE political junkies then the Republican party. In registered voters the parties are about equal. So the media spin and the number of Democratic activists means the polls are off at this point in the contest.By the end of October, they will be on.
Jay Cost did an excellent article on ’summer polls’ at RCP a few years ago. He goes into the details of what I outlined above.

IMHO this is going to be a close election, as is normal for these times. If it does become a blowout it will be Ohhh…..BAMA that gets spanked. Remember, he is farther left then either Mondale or Dukaksis, victims of the last attempt by the Democrats to make Socialism the law of the land.
Out here in the Red States, you really have to look to find someon that is planning on voting for Ohhhh….BAMA. HE will not win Missouri, which several Medai maps have given him. I’m up there every week and I ask people. There is less chance of them lying to me then to a pollster.
I think California is in play this cycle. The Hispanic vote is going to be critical and Big Mac does very well there. Ohhhh….BAMA is counting on the black vote as his base, yet for every black voting for BHO because he is black, there will a Hispanic voting against him for the same reason.
I keep asking my moonbat friends and relatives, who find Ohhh….BAMA a little unsettling, where his EV’s are. I just get stares in response. ‘course they are all Clintonistas.
So I’ll ask you, where are Ohhh…BAMA’s EV’s? Use anything except polls for your answer. Show me a state where Ohhhhh….BAMA’s core group is strong enough to deliver that state.
Demographics ALWAYS trumps polls.
Here is another prediction. Ohhhhh…..BAMA will lose to McCain EVERY state he lost to Clinton.

Jun 12, 2008 - 2:59 am 5. JK:

I agree with John Samford here, if there’s to be a blowout, the DNC will have to call in Halliburton.

Jun 12, 2008 - 3:14 am 6. AJ:

“I’m more interested in head to head stat in swing states.”

Exactly. Only about 6-8 states matter and Obama has proven he cannot win any states but the ultra liberal states. McCain will prevail in November. Rick and other coastal conservatives (Chicago, included) need to realize all the “bitter” folks as well as the moderate blue collar union Hillary supporter types on’t vote for the idiotic, anti-America, divisive, naive, unqualified B Hussein Obama.

The Dems are controlled byt he far left.

Jun 12, 2008 - 3:31 am 7. Don:

Loath to react to threat and passive in his responses. Obama has shown no strength of character every chance he has had (the Wright eruptions being the most blatant). If he had true strength of character he would not have just renounced Wright’s words and (finally) quit the church, he would have renounced, condemned and demanded; that those taking such blood libels as “truths” take their support and vote for someone else.

Jun 12, 2008 - 4:10 am 8. AJ:

He’s no leader and frankly, not that swift w/o his prepared speeches from the teleprompter. That his cult members/supporters don’t realize this is very telling.

Jun 12, 2008 - 4:35 am 9. Steve:

I think this article is very far seeing and accurate I mean after all how can one doubt media pundits I mean their track record is pretty good, look they predicted Hilary as the..oh yeah. Come on the way this race has been so far I wouldn’t take bets. A year ago everyone was treating Hilary as the next president, look how that went. As has been pointed out during the latest primaries the Obama surge has lost its steam. We have a while to go before November and the more we get to know Obama the less there is to like. If McCain plays it right (pun inteneded) he should point out how much less money everyone will have under Obama and a Democrat congress. If all this stuff had been out six months ago he would have been an also ran whose name wouldn’t even be remembered.

Jun 12, 2008 - 4:48 am 10. Metoo:

Yes, but perhaps half of those 80% think the country is headed in the wrong direction because of the “treasonous liberals and media.” Those are not guys who are going to vote for Obama; if anything, they’ll be more keen to vote, to try to redress the country.

Don’t discount that factor.

Jun 12, 2008 - 4:52 am 11. LS:

McCain is going to get blown out of the water because he’s NOT a Republican, at least in the conservative sense. He’s wrong on ALL the issues, even the war on terror, where he wants to coddle terrorists and grant them all kinds of ‘rights’. I’m a life long Republican and it’s becoming more and more apparent that a total blood bath is the only thing that’s going to get the Republican party back on track. There seem to be some rock solid conservatives left in the party, but for the most part, they aren’t in leadership positions - yet. I think a couple of years of total Democratic control will open the eyes of a lot of people who don’t pay enough attention to what goes on in D.C.

Jun 12, 2008 - 5:08 am 12. TomJW:

Too much is still up in the air.

Right now, the Clinton crowd is disgruntled with Obama. If the they have a change of heart by November, then it doesn’t matter how they felt today.

McCain has pushed many conservatives right out of the party. Independant conservatives don’t care for him either. Obama’s weaknesses may force them to vote McCain though.

After convention time, in October, there will be a better picture of how the vote will turnout. Then it will be a state by state case. Total Electorial College numbers count. Obama knew this when going after delegates in the caucas states. Still, he didn’t win the big states.

Jun 12, 2008 - 5:34 am 13. ~Paules:

In other news of the day, 80% of Americans polled said they would not vote for a charismatic cult leader, neo-Marxist radical known to associate with admitted terrorists, black nationalists, and convicted criminals.

Jun 12, 2008 - 5:40 am 14. Tolbert:

The Republican Party has got to stop putting these “tired old men” at the top of the ticket simply because “it is their time”.

No more truth on the matter can be found than a popular bumper sticker making the rounds.

F^*k it! McCain ‘08 - The least repulsive Democrat running.

That sums up how a large portion of the base feels about John McCain.

Pournelle is right, John McCain is a country club Republican. And not even a very good one at that.

Jun 12, 2008 - 5:42 am 15. Assistant Village Idiot:

What metoo said. Taking polls apart to read their entrails is seldom illuminating unless you really know what you’re looking for. That’s not to say that McCain will win, or that these undercurrents aren’t part of the picture, but the meanings are ambiguous. The phrasings of many poll questions prime a liberal response - all the “who do you trust, who do you think cares about people like you” questions are in Demspeak, and elicit Dem answers.

Jun 12, 2008 - 5:43 am 16. Marc:

You can say conservatives don’t like McCain till you’re blue in the face, but the fact is that if anyone of those people have a head on their shoulders, they will not let BHO win. It is as simple as that. Conservatives CAN NOT let this man win. You might as well give the congress and house a free pass to propose any bill it wants.

2nd amendments rights, ha!
Liberal justices, no problem!
Welfare programs, we’ll quintuple them!

This is what conservatives need to think about. 4 years of very liberal policy getting passed.

Jun 12, 2008 - 6:13 am 17. WJ:

Do the “polls” overstate Obama’s lead? The MSM is definitely putting it out there that if you don’t support Obama you are a racist.

Now more than ever in this election, how many folks are going to tell a stranger (pollster) that they are going to vote for Obama so they won’t be thought of as a racist?

Jun 12, 2008 - 6:18 am 18. ursa major:

BO is the most frightening politician since Henry Wallace. He is pure, unadulterated socialism. He is being manipulated by some very dark figures, George Soros for example. And is wife is equally disturbing. In fact, she may be the real radical behind him. I genuinely fear for my grandchildren’s future if this man is elected and is backed up by a solidly Democrat Congress.

Jun 12, 2008 - 6:52 am 19. Marc J:

As a member of the Republican base, I think McCain’s only hope is if he were to challenge the country to a ‘Manhattan Project’ in order to become self-sufficient with regard to energy–To utilize all methods (nuclear, drilling in Anwar and offshore, etc)to achieve energy independence. Short of that, McCain will lose.

Jun 12, 2008 - 7:06 am 20. darksideofthemoon:

McCain will lose, the numbers will be close but only because many people in red states(including the people here) are scared of people who look and talk like Obama (read dark and intelligent). When it is all said and done republicans will look back at this election and wonder why they ever thought that this very old man could win. He is pro-war (big mistake right now), he has a fake reputation as a maverick (95% Bush votes) and no strong ties to the conservative base. He doesn’t have a chance in this election. Especially considering he is up against the rising star of the political party which less Americans hate for obvious reasons. McCain is a fading star and that is being nice. Its happened before, I don’t think any democrats can look back and say that Kerry was a good candidate. McCain we appreciate your service but now might be the time to relax in on your porch with some lemonade.

Jun 12, 2008 - 7:14 am 21. MarkD:

People want change. Well, duh - how many people want a slow economy, high gas prices, corruption, war and unimpeded illegal immigration?

Alas, neither party is proposing any serious solutions for ANY of these problems. To suppose that that magically favors Senator Obama is a fantasy. Look at his policies. I see a strong resemblance to Jimmy Carter’s, and one term of Jimmy Carter was more than enough for my lifetime, thank you.

We’re going to get a McCain presidency which will be indistinguishable from any other Democrat. We’re not getting the Socialist dreams of a Chicago City Councilman/Activist of no discernable accomplishments.

Jun 12, 2008 - 7:25 am 22. A. N. Pierson:

Marc J. is right… McCain should challenge the country to a Manhattan Project on Engergy Independence. It would also show up Obama who is the most conventional candidate (other than his skin color - yawn) the Dems have come up with in decades.

Jun 12, 2008 - 7:32 am 23. Ed Lilly:

I had a similar thought to Metoo on reading this:

More than 80% of the nation believes the country is headed in the “wrong direction.” Think about that for a moment. Is there anything else in the history of the United States where 80% of the people agreed about anything?

Just because 80% may think we’re headed in the “wrong direction,” it does not follow that the same 80% agree on the direction in which we should be headed. McCain may indeed lose, but I’m not very impressed with the “80? believes X” argument as an explanation or predictor.

Jun 12, 2008 - 7:53 am 24. Pat:

Everytime I think I can vote for this man he does something to make my head explode. This crazy statement by him where he compares drilling in ANWR to drilling in the GrandCanyon makes me think he really REALLY needs to go to ANWR.

If he does not take steps to make himself distinct from Obama on domestic policy, what’s the point in voting for him?

I figured I would vote for McCain for the sake of our troops, but by God, he’s making it difficult…and if he can’t manage to find a way to an oil drill, and a coherent energy policy, maybe voting is simply not worth it.

Jun 12, 2008 - 7:58 am 25. david levavi:

As Thomas Friedeman might say, Yikes, Yikes, Yikes!

Moran is spooked. Many others who should know better are spooked. After McCain’s sickly-green-background-speech the night Obama passed Hillary and crawled across the finish line, Brit Hume looked like he swallowed a toad.

Hopefully there are more stalwart, less easily panicked men in the Republican party. And more media savvy than the amateurs who prepared McCain for that first speech of the McCain vs Obama contest.

Its a tough contest. Obama is young, fashionable and well financed. All he lacks is substance. McCain is old, old fashioned and his war chest won’t allow him to spend like a drunken sailor.
But he has substance aplenty.

The Republicans have the goods, they only have to improve the presentation. The challenge for the democrats is precisely the opposite.

Telegenics have trumped substance in American politics since the Kennedy-Nixon debates. But Barack Obama, for all his practiced Kennedyesque mannerisms is no Kennedy. And John McCain, a maverick noted for his independence and honesty, is no Nixon.

For the telejournalists from whom Americans get most of their news and opinion, cosmetics and appearance are paramount–the key to professional success. They’re in showbiz and Obama sure looks and sounds better than McCain.
But Obama isn’t running for network anchor or talk-show host or American Idol.

My bet is that the American people are smarter than the shallow pretty people with the authoritative voices who feed them news and opinion twenty-four hours a day.

McCain has far more in common with most ordinary Americans voters than Obama. His character is proven and his accomplishments genuinely inspiring. Obama is an empty suit with a shady past.

The republicans need to get over their early campaign jitters, form up solidly behind their candidate and make his case to the public. The goods are there. What is mainly required is better packaging.

Jun 12, 2008 - 9:04 am 26. John the Libertarian:

This is getting boring. Blogging on poll numbers = slow news day.

There is plenty of evidence that independents will flock to McCain. I have plenty of anecdotal evidence that Democrats are planning on voting McCain.

I don’t care if you’re red, purple or polka-dotted, if you’re too liberal, you won’t get elected. Someone on Fox pointed out: it’s not that he’s black, it’s that he’s green.

Jun 12, 2008 - 9:06 am 27. newguy40:

Personally, I think McCain is going to get his clocked cleaned.

As many point out, the majority of voters just want change… any change…. They are not looking much beyond that. And, if they are they see a nice loking and well spoken young man. Why dig any deeper, right?

McCain is problematic for me. His recent comments about not drilling in ANWR, caps for CEO’s and illegal immigration make it very hard for conservatives (not just Repubs) to get excited for him and contribute $$$. For me, the only reason to vote for him is that the idea of an Obama presidency is quite frightening.

If Wright, Rezco, and his wife have not knocked him off the rails, nothing will at this point.

Jun 12, 2008 - 9:06 am 28. Dave II:

John Samford is right! (Again!) This election comes down to EV’s…state by state. Dems (or I should say Obama supporters, because not all Dems are voting for Obama this election)…I challenge you here:

Show me ONE red-state that Bush won in 2008 where Obama is even POSSIBLY poised to win. Here…I’ll even help you:
Iowa, Colorado, and maybe New Mexico. Total EV’s=21

Conversely, I can show you 3 states Kerry took that looks likely to go for McCain:
Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New Hampshire. EV’s=42

If just these 6 states flip, and everything else remains the same, McCain wins 307 to 231.

Remember: Obama LOST every single major swing state he faced Hillary in. He has NO CHANCE in PA…the MAJOR swing state, and none in Ohio either.

In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if McCain carries those 3 states I gave Obama: IA, CO, NM, and even carries Wisconsin, a state Bush BARELY lost.

If that happens McCain wins 338 to 200…and delivers a crushing defeat to the DNC who “selected” the WRONG candidate!

Play the EV map yourself at: http://www.270towin.com/

Jun 12, 2008 - 9:07 am 29. Doc99:

Gas prices could have been a big winner for Republicans. Unfortunately, McCain’s Energy Policy is incoherent at best so there’s no leverage there. McCain should have a chat with Roy Blunt.
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives2/2008/06/020729.php

Jun 12, 2008 - 9:26 am 30. ronnor:

I will vote for McCain just to protect the Supreme Court nominations that will be coming up soon. Why couldn’t he get behind the American People on Energy, why does he have to be a dufuss on this, doesn’t he read? The Democrats are seemingly on the take with Arabs, look what the Democrats have done over 30 years. McCain purports to love this country but it will be a 3rd world country if the no energy Democrats continue to cut our countries throat. Hey John, we might be in a war here, your good with wars.

There are many types of war and I am starting to think that we are in an economic war with OPEC and don’t realize it. Has anyone every stopped to think what $10 Billion dollars would buy if the Arabs started buying environmentalists, Senators, Representatives, media types and maybe 100 attorneys to throw road blocks in oil exploration and development? Why would they do this? We have a reverse cash flow to the Arab countries right now of over $650 Billion Dollars and growing every day, that’s why they would do it. Bribery is a way of doing business in the Arabic world and there is no more venal person in the country than a politician, I hope that I’m wrong but tell me this, why in face of all reason is the Democrat Party ruining the United States economically. The Democrats have stopped all development in everything, oil and gas, nuclear, coal slurry and gasification and now my own Senator Feinstein with a big grin has helped stop oil shale development in Colorado. What was Soros’s position before and after this vote, did he know how the vote was going to turn out? He is the largest donor to the Democrat Party, was a quid pro quo in effect before and after the vote. Are the Democrats just stupid or are they on the take, I have never thought them stupid and that leaves the latter its the only thing that make any sense.

John, the American people are dying right now, some people can’t get to work because of gas prices, they are losing their homes and the Democrats are laughing, Obama say’s get used to it. Why don’t you get a platform for energy and I’m not talking about Methane from pig farms, solar or wind. How about a big push with proven technology, maybe some of those people paying $4 for gas will vote for you.

Jun 12, 2008 - 9:53 am 31. george:

John Samford:

‘That wrong track, right track nonsense is just that, nonsense.
Along those lines why is the media always going on about President Bush’s 30% approval rating as if it is a death sentence yet never mentions that Congress has an approval rating BELOW 20%.’

That’s the first thing that crosses my mind when hearing Bush’s poll number, and John hit it on the head.

As for this generic ‘change’ I keep hearing, what do people want, exactly, to change? Obama sure as hell isn’t going to reduce Government in any way, shape, or form, nor its intrusion into our lifestyle and pocketbooks. So there are idiots out there thinking there is any change to be had by being liberal? Personally I think 30% of the government(both personnel and budget infrastructure) is complete and utter waste right now.

Jun 12, 2008 - 10:04 am 32. george:

I can’t believe that many Americans have become so stupid as to want to vote an empty ‘change’ bumper-sticker with a face into office to head this nation.

Jun 12, 2008 - 10:06 am 33. Richard:

Well, I don’t think that much of polls and polling these days. Hardly any poll gets close to meeting 100 per cent of its sample due to shifting telephone technologies. People use answering machines to screen out nuisance phone calls.
I disagree that generic polls are at all meaningful. People consistently prefer the Democrats generically to Republicans until the real thing comes along—McGovern, Mondale, Carter, Kerry—then they hold their nose and vote the other way.
I suspect that a lot of those “wrong track” numbers have a lot to do with job insecurity and job satisfaction—my boss is a jerk—issues rather than the direction of American foreign policy. I suspect the message of both candidates is tangential (opps, apologies to Obama) to those concerns.

I don’t have a high opinion of either candidate as a candidate, nor of Mrs. Clinton. Neither of them have blow out appeal or potential and I suspect that they will both be one term presidents if they win.

Jun 12, 2008 - 10:13 am 34. Peter G:

It’s very hard to see how McCain can be elected when he embraces idiocy like Kyoto-type environmentalism, flooding our country with waves of immigrants and backs absurd policies to prevent America’s fading oil industry from tapping and drilling vast reserves on and off shore.

Our “oil giants” are tiny on the world stage in comparison to Gazprom, the Saudi aational oil company, Venezuelan state oil and a dozen other national and hostile states, yet McCain seems to buy into the absurd notion that we should “windfall tax” ours, when exploration and tapping reserves in America are denied them. I wonder if he will offer them “downwind tax breaks” when the industry next goes through a slump? Are farmers going to be “windfall taxed” on the sky high price of grain? Of course not, it’s part of McCains lame greenery he has adopted.

Meanwhile oil producers that are hostile to our very existence continue to buy up America. Now it’s the Chrysler Building. Why not the Statue of Liberty next? What this space.

He also does not know how to make the right noises over Iraq and goes from one blooper to another, trying to sound like a super-hawk when the American people want the opposite. It’s almost like he is determined to kill himself over that issue, when he could easily sound softer but maintain determination once elected.

In fact I don’t see the American people are being given a choice at all. On Gitmo, terrorists rights, Supreme Court judges, immigration and the environment ( which is a mega economic issue) it’s just a choice of two Obamas, one of whom is old, a bit plodding and white and the other of which is a brilliant orator,dynamicand a fresh multicultural face. If McCain does not get some wide space between himself and Obama in ideology and solution, then guess who is going to win?

Jun 12, 2008 - 10:27 am 35. Sandra M:

I supported John McCain in 2000, but in 2004 I nearly went ballistic when he said that John Kerry was his best friend in the Senate, the same traitorous John Kerry who has been slandering and libeling him of late.

LESSON FOR McCAIN: don’t put “friends” in your cabinet: Bush’s failures were all Texas buddies: AG Gonzalez, Hud Secy A. Jackson, Karen Hughes, press secretary McClellan, etc. Look for the best talent available.

McCAIN: War in Iraq: The Democrats and main stream media are trying to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory as they did by having CBS’s Walter Cronkite tell us we’d lost when we’d in fact won
the Tet offensive. (ch. 10 TET in Victor Davis Hanson’s CARNAGE & CULTURE)

THE REPUBLICAN PARTY is being ruined by DC porkmeisters. Rep. Jeff Flake, a porkbuster, was kept off the Appropriations Committee by Majority Leader and porker Boehner. Sad . In 1994, the party’s best intellectual, Newt Gingrich, borrowed much of the Reform Party platform, called it the Contract With America, printed it on one page in TV Guide and regained the house for the Republicans for the first time in 40 years. And they kept their word to pass this reform legislation in 100 days. But, alas, they came to do good and, like the ministers who went to Hawaii, they did well. We need a new batch of idealists.

PERSUASION: N We not only have Fox News channel, talk radio, the Internet but great columnists like VDH, Christopher Hitchens, Mark Steyn, Thomas Sowell, Ann Coulter, Peggy Noonan et al and a brilliantly persuasive or wickedly funny column can be emailed to political buddies faster than a speeding bullet.

WHAT AMERICANS THINK ABOUT THE MILITARY: The military is much admired these days. Young men are enlisting in record numbers and at a time when the young American male had turned into a hip hopping rude slob with his pants hanging off his butt, the military is actually producing very attractive, trim young gentlemen, who say:” Yes, Ma’am, No, Ma’am.” which we women find most attractive. And I read that with the fleet in town in Manhattan, a sailor couldn’t pay for a drink. That sounds like support to me which doesn’t show up in polls, whose questions are written by fools to be answered by fools.

WHAT AMERICANS THINK ABOUT THE WAR IN IRAQ AND THE WAR ON TERROR: Hollywood film makers haven’t been able to profit from anti-war films. But TV, which depends on ratings, and is hence more market-driven has had hits like 24 (Islamicists worked mightily to have the villains not be Muslims, leading to some silly seasons). THE UNIT (written by FORMER liberal David Mamet). NCIS is on CBS and in syndication on USA, and even had a marathon on Memorial Day weekend competing with ratings behemoth L&O. JAG is still in syndication. All of these have Iraq stories and are popular with the public, just not so much with the critics. Meanwhile, anti-war protests have dissapointed middle-age, Birkenstock-wearing hippies who hoped to relive their anti-war glory days.

War is always unpopular when we’re losing, but ever since General Petraeus took over, we’re WINNING, Jihad is on the ropes and muslims world-wide are losing their enthusiasm for it. Why were they initially so enthusiastic about Jihad? Because muslims thought that Osama Bin Laden (who actually had a very minor role) had defeated the Soviets in Afghanistan, and so surely would be able to defeat us. . Alas, Islam has to be slapped down hard every few generations (Jefferson sent the Marines to fight the Berbers aka Barbary Pirates who were hijacking our ships and selling our citizens into slavery (p. JEFFERSON: AMERICA’S AUTHOR, Christopher Hitchens)
BUSH AND THE WAR: Lincoln was very unpopular and on the point of being defeated by a non-fighting General McClellan (much like the Pentagon Princes surrounding Obama) until he found Generals Grant and Sherman (read Victor Davis Hanson’s THE SOUL OF BATTLE and his many essays here at PJM. Americans like victory and finally we’re WINNING.
support George Bush 1000% on the war in Iraq. Actor Omar Sharif, an Egyptian, has said that democracy will never take root in the middle east and when he has a problem he goes to his Sheik.

Jun 12, 2008 - 10:30 am 36. Kevin:

obama has big-time electoral difficulties (and being a MArxist with dubious anti-American ties created this)
Basically, Obama’s ONLY chance is to do the follwoing:
1. He MUST win one of the following two states: New Mexico or Iowa
2. He MUST win three of the four following swing states: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida,and Michigan (in play, believe me)
And the above assumes he gets Wis, NH, NJ, and Minn.

he may very well be close or win the popular vote, but the electoral college practically assures his defeat.

Jun 12, 2008 - 10:34 am 37. Moultrie:

What’s up with Rick Moran, has he flipped to BHO? IMO, the race is Mccain’s to lose much moreso than BHO’s to win. The runup to November doesn’t bode well for Obama’s inability to stand and answer questions at random. Hell the guy can’t even do a stump speech without a teleprompter. I see a series of major meltdowns continuing to implode that campaign.

Jun 12, 2008 - 11:57 am 38. Olivia:

Obama could only win in the McGovern style nomination system.
In the General Election it’s a whole other ballgame.
Neither Obama or McCain have their political bases covered.
The difference is millions of angry Democrats are willing to defect to McCain.

I would refer you to your colleague’s article for more points.
http://pajamasmedia.com/victordavishanson/autopsy-of-the-primaries-the-only-democratic-candidate-who-can-lose-the-general-election-the-only-republican-one-who-can-win-it/

Jun 12, 2008 - 12:02 pm 39. voter:

Every party has to have its day (and its doom) and, in 2008, democrats will prevail in the White House as well as in Congress. Nonetheless, I would have voted for McCain, but with all this nonsense talk about Romney on the VP ticket, I absolutely will not. Doesn’t matter — Obama will win — and I am looking forward to 2012 and Mike Huckebee.

Incidentally, I am not a southern evangelical baptist (live in NYC, am a corporate attorney), but enough is enough with these greedy, fiscal nuts. And even though I am not an evangelical, don’t count on them being scared into voting for McCain with Romney on the ticket.

Jun 12, 2008 - 12:07 pm 40. TexasTrue:

The presidency is only a small part of the issue. If the democrats take a veto-proof majority in the House and a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, having McCain in the White House will be irrelevant. The Dems have blocked GWB’s judicial nominations for 8 years. Do you think they’re going to let McCain put a conservative or moderate on the Supreme Court? Not likely. The true challenge is electing conservative Republicans to the House and Senate…if, indeed, we can find any.

Jun 12, 2008 - 12:10 pm 41. GEEVILL:

Hey Pajama man,

Big flaw in your thinking there. All 80% are not going in the same direction.
Get out of Chicago once in a while. Obama is a despised liberal.

Jun 12, 2008 - 12:11 pm 42. Sandra M:

McCAIN is qualified to be Commander in Chief as neither Hillary nor Obama would be but not because of his years of military service, but because even though it almost cost him the nomination, he fought for the surge which is bringing us victory in Iraq.

I also greatly appreciate Bush’s eminently successful war on terror (no successful attacks on our homeland since 2003. People don’t generally notice what doesn’t happen. They should. And I find Victor Davis Hanson’s analogy between Bush-Iraq war and Lincoln-Civil War brilliantly on target.

Lincoln became very unpopular during the first few losing years of the Civil War and was on the point of being defeated for a second term, to a non-fighting General McClellan who promised peace not victory, Then, Generals Grant and Sherman began to win (VDH’s THE SOUL OF BATTLE, chapters 4-6, and here at PJM) Lincoln won re-election and the war.

War is always unpopular with Americans when we’re losing. I who watched the 3 week war in Afghanistan and the march on Baghdad 18/7 could barely watch the bad news for the first years of the war. I wavered, but then I’d read Hanson and Hitchens and be OK. However, since General Petraeus took over, we’re WINNING and there is not enough war news for me . Jihad is on the ropes and muslims world-wide are losing their enthusiasm for it.

Why were Muslims initially so enthusiastic about Jihad? Because it fed their tattered self-esteem to think that Osama Bin Laden ( a very minor player) had defeated the Soviets in Afghanistan, and so surely would be able to defeat America. Hah! CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR, the book and the movie show all the people who had a role in winning that war: The Afghanis who share with us a belief in “Live Free or Die” fought heroically but with OUR high tech weapons, OUR doctors, and OUR incredibly generous financial aid.

Islam has to be slapped down hard every few generations President Jefferson sent the Marines to (the shores of Tripoli; i.e. Libya) on their first mission to fight the Berbers aka Barbary Pirates who were hijacking our ships and selling our citizens into slavery (p. 126-135 JEFFERSON: AUTHOR OF AMERICA, Christopher Hitchens) Thank God, Dennis Kucinich wasn’t around or he would have called for Jefferson’s impeachment since Jefferson waited till our navy was over the horizon and couldn’t be recalled before informing Congress.

General Pershing had a Muslim uprising to deal with in the Philippines, captured several rebel leaders, shot a few with bullets dipped in pig’s blood, then buried them face down, facing away from Mecca, with pig’s blood and entrails scattered over their bodies and let the other rebels go. No more insurrection because if you touch pig before dying you don’t go to Paradise. Was it a Frederick Forsyth film in which the hero tosses a football (pigskin) to the Muslim villain just before he dies? Same principle.

We couldn’t make Saddam Hussein kneel defeated before us when we defeated him in Desert Storm; hence, this Stalinist-Hitlerist monster persuaded himself he’d defeated us. We won that war but Colin Powell allowed the Republican Guard (think SS) to escape wouldn’[t have looked nice to the world to keep killing a defeated army. What happened to cutting off the snake’s head? Then, Schwartzkopf and the State Dept. rep allowed Saddam to use his helicopters because sob! we’d blown all his bridges sky high. Those helicopters then brought death to the Shiites and Kurds while we stood by.

We OWED these people. AND contrary to wet-eyed Omar Sharif, Iraq is THE perfect country in which to bring democracy to the middle east. Sharif prefers going to his Sheik; that’s because Egypt is a corrupt bureaucratic mess. We broke Iraq as we broke Japan, a feudal land to which we brought land reform and a constitution. Iraq has oil and fertile land and a largely secular population. Hernando de Soto has written of what we did right in Japan in his THE MYSTERY OF CAPITAL: Why Capitalism Triumphs in the West and Fails Everywhere Else. It’s not failing in Iraq and their October elections will bring in Sunnis (who boycotted the last election) who know how to run things. Their democracy will be unlike ours. Sheiks will have a big role. Fine. Maybe, the Egyptians will then learn from the Iraqis.

Jun 12, 2008 - 12:13 pm 43. freelyb:

To Marc:

I think that the first time I’ve every heard the words “conservative” and “think” in the same sentence….

Jun 12, 2008 - 12:19 pm 44. Jim:

The Democrat controlled Congress is liked even less than Bush. Using your logic, Republicans will sweep control of Congress this year.

Jun 12, 2008 - 12:22 pm 45. RR:

Wishful Thinking…. No debating the Republican Brand is suffering. The fact that Obama and McCain are essentially in a dead heat shows that America is not ready for the unknown Liberal Barak Obama. Remember that the U.S is a center right country. Rasmussen reports that just 25% of Americans call themselves Liberal. Look at the last time Dems put Liberals forward. 2004 just 53% of the country viewed Kerry as a Liberal…Obama is now percieved by 67% up 20 points in just a few months. America is just getting to know him. Also, did he not just lose 9 of the last 14 primaries?

Jun 12, 2008 - 12:22 pm 46. Ernie in Florida:

Rick: You’re either smoking dope or you are a dope!
This election is not about “history”! Obama has already accomplished that through his nomination!
Any other democrat would be a shoo-in to win in November!
This country will Not elect someone as inexperienced and naive as Obama!
His economic agenda including universal healthcare, bailing out
irresponible home owners etc will Bankrupt the Treasury and the people!
His foreign policy pronouncements are a sick joke!
He would bomb Pakistan, our ally, and have direct talks without
preconditions with the leaders of Iran, Syria, Cuba, and Venezuela!
His 20 year associations with Rev Wright, Father Plegar, William Ayers,
show his lack of judgement! The appointment and subsequent resignation
of Johnson to his VP search commitee highlights his consistent lack
of judgement!
If there is any shellacking coming in November, Obama will be on
the Receiving End! Count on It!

Jun 12, 2008 - 12:33 pm 47. cramos:

Gee…….I staid at a Holiday Inn..that must make me a journalist….!

Jun 12, 2008 - 12:33 pm 48. Mike of Minnesota:

No question that Obama is favored to win, no question at all. It is interesting to site the wrong track/right track numbers but I do not agree that these directly reflect the fortunes of McCain vs. Obama. The fact that McCain is within 5 to 7 pts of Obama in national polls showing his ‘bounce’ and with an effective tie in the electoral college with the recession, housing collapse, jobless rate going up, and gas prices going through the roof, demonstrates either McCain’s strength or Obama’s weakness. I suspect both are true.
Yes, McCain is in the game when any other Republican wouldn’t be. If Romney, Thompson, or Huckabee were the nominees’s each would be down vs. Obama by 15 to 20pts. So McCain is different - he is in the game against a rookie running for President. I’m willing to put my marker down on the old guy’s chances - I think he has one more miracle in him.

Jun 12, 2008 - 12:38 pm 49. Bob:

Yes, and the sun may one day rise in the west, and day may become night…

The article was silly…MCCain “may be”….the argument was gratuitous, and may be just as gatuitously rejected.

Jun 12, 2008 - 12:43 pm 50. Drake:

“The Hispanic vote is going to be critical and Big Mac does very well there”

Sorry to impose actual facts on you, but by ALL accounts, Obama is leading McCain among hispanics by 33-34 points. The 2 most recent polls have Obama up 62-29 and 62-28.

So tell me, how do you consider getting spanked by 34 points doing ‘very well’?

I voted McCain in 2000, but the 2008 version is atrocious. McCain is going to lose big in November.

Obama has many ideas that are too liberal for me, but I also recognize that he is a pragmatist and, unlike our current President, will actually *listen* to what people have to say. Plus he learns…. note the gas tax holiday idiocy that McCain/Clinton proposed.

Jun 12, 2008 - 12:48 pm 51. Bob:

I hate Judas, but I hate Satan more.

McCain ‘08.

Jun 12, 2008 - 12:50 pm 52. Rick Moran:

Cramos:

Sure didn’t make you a competent speller. (”staid?”)

Jun 12, 2008 - 12:51 pm 53. OIF Vet:

After reading your poor, poor story about McSame and the comments that followed, I wanted to puke all over my computer. GOP, 80% of the country can’t be that wrong. Maybe, it has somthing to do with a stupid war, stupid energy policy, stupid tax policy and dare I say, a stupid leader that McSame supports 95% if the time.

Jun 12, 2008 - 12:53 pm 54. Bob:

A President who listens? Listens to who? Al Franken? Ann Coulter? Ted Danson? You? I dont want a President who listens, I want one who goes there with convictions and LEADS.

St. Reagan for pope.

Jun 12, 2008 - 12:53 pm 55. Matt:

The election is six months away. Is there any real point to this drivel other they your desire to navel-gaze?

Jun 12, 2008 - 12:55 pm 56. Dave Thomas:

The United States doesn’t want the more taxes, bigger government espoused by unproven, unknown Barak “all I ever wanted to be was President” Obama. You put John McCain’s record of public service next to Barak’s and Mr. Obama looks pathetic.

Jun 12, 2008 - 12:59 pm 57. John:

Kerry was winning in the pols…double digits I believe…..Kerry was called the winner before the pols closed….the MSM will do whatever it takes to get BHO elected. This article is a prime example. He will not get elected. It will…possibly, be close. Best bet is a landslide for McCain. The more we see BHO, the less there is.

Jun 12, 2008 - 1:00 pm 58. WR Jonas:

The change that Conservative Republicans yearn for is not available in this election. It has not been available for quite some time. In truth we are like a small band of survivors fleeing the city after the battles have been lost and we are hoping to find some refuge in the hills or mountains . The thought that we can regroup after four years when Americans have discovered how terrible Liberal are is pure fantasy. We are on the verge of annihilation and we have no commander.Our so called leader is in the enemies camp trying to reason with them and telling them he will help hunt us down.
We had better be quicker ,smarter and nastier. Oh,…. and we had better pray a lot more too.

Jun 12, 2008 - 1:01 pm 59. Jing Li:

McCain will lose, he’s not clear in any of the issues and has been trying to hide his stands in some of the most important issues. Like overturning Roe v Wade, and not knowing anything about economy…. I’m just wondering, how long can he hide.

I’m sorry he was my hero when he stood up like a maveric against Bush on the war but since he decided to run for president and fliped flopped on every issues that matters he lost all my respect.

Jun 12, 2008 - 1:06 pm 60. Patrick:

Republican idiots. Obama leads in the following polls. All Republican states last election:)
IOWA, NM, CO, and Ohio. He is down only 2% in NORTH CAROLINA.. he is down less than 2% in VA. Say good bye to your 8 years of disasterous rule. The country has woken.

Jun 12, 2008 - 1:08 pm 61. sc:

Obama is the “pie eyed prostitute” of which you speak.

Jun 12, 2008 - 1:10 pm 62. Patrick:

You guys sound very scared. You should be. Obama leads in ALL Kerry won states with big #’s as well as new states: Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, and Ohio. Your brand is toast because you had 8 years to do something and did nothing. You are destroying this nation with your big spending Republican war mongering on a pathetic war in a region you DON’T UNDERSTAND. Awww America’s awakening!

Jun 12, 2008 - 1:10 pm 63. Frank Ludtke:

As a Democrat, mere words cannot adequately describe the joy I feel as I watch your party slide toward defeat and civil war. Welcome to the wilderness, nutcases!

Jun 12, 2008 - 1:10 pm 64. Patrick:

Your Republican administration is the largest in US History. Now could someone show me facts on large gov. Dem vs. Republican? LOL THEY DON’T EXIST.

Jun 12, 2008 - 1:11 pm 65. Rob Gladstone:

For those fellow conservatives who believe a shellacking will be good for conservatives, here’s what you get.

At least two ultra-liberal appointments to the supreme court.

A retreat from the war against radical jihadism.

A government takeover of the healthcare system.

A windfall profits tax on oil companies $200 oil along with it’s corresponding inflation, high interest rates and economic malaise

Increased taxes, including an increase in the payroll tax.

Cap and trade of carbon “pollution”.

No new oil, no new nuclear power, no wind turbines in Ted Kennedy’s back yard.

Open borders

A retreat from free trade

And bye, bye Israel, thanks to Iran’s nuclear tipped missiles.

Thanks and good luck!

Jun 12, 2008 - 1:20 pm 66. howard lohmuller:

It is a shame that John McCain, a man who has been running for the Presidency for more than ten years has not understood that Conservatives have lost enthusiasm for their candidates because of graft and ethical lapses. His attempts to appeal to Democrats and Republicans as if the country wants or needs one party politics or bipartisanship is just wrong. Our only protection from autonomy is an adversarial position by the two parties. McCain should choose Conservatives and reform them if he wants to win the Presidency.

Jun 12, 2008 - 1:21 pm 67. mike:

poor analyis….Obama has to win states not public
opinion majorities.. he has to win electoral votes
in states that democrats need to win…He has huge
problems with voters in those states…ohio, pa,
ark, fla, etc..His problems: the most inexperienced
presidential candidate in modern history…a candidate
from the McGovern wing of the party, a history of
cavorting with bigots and radicals…a perception
that he is not in touch with middle to lower class
working men and woman…a resentment from white woman
that he stole the nomination from one of their own,
a payback from jews for being slapped in the face
by blacks after they virtually underwrote the civil
rights movement with their lives and their dollars.
and last but not least…his wife….

Jun 12, 2008 - 1:23 pm 68. Frank Ludtke:

Rob, would you like a nice, big hunk of cheese to go with your whine? When it comes to whining, there is no whiner like a Republican whiner. Good God, is this going to be fun.

Jun 12, 2008 - 1:28 pm 69. Standing Fast:

join the cause

Jun 12, 2008 - 1:30 pm 70. Colorado Jack:

I know of only one good reason to vote for McCain: one party government is a bad thing. But me, I’ll take my chances with a Federal Government ruled root and branch by Democrats. Blue dog Democrats can perform the opposition party function better than the Republicans can, especially since Speaker Pelosi is being solicitous about their political needs.

Jun 12, 2008 - 1:39 pm 71. Ashenthorn:

There isn’t a single state won by Kerry in 2004 that Obama is in any danger of losing. Any repubs that think they have a chance in PA against the Rendell/Nutter democratic turnout machine are nuts. That machine was working against Obama in the primary, but will be working fully for him in the general. The one and only chance McCain has is to hold every single state won by Bush in 2004. My guess is Obama turns 4 or 5 states and wins comfortably.

Jun 12, 2008 - 1:46 pm 72. Dave H:

I am a retired small business executive and a political conservative who had been an active Republican Party for more than 40 years. I resigned from the Republicans about two years ago because of the take-over of the party by the religious right ; the final straw being George Bush vetoing the bill on stem cell research. I am now an Independent, and hate many of the ideas of both Republican and Democrat parties. The Republicans seem to spend most of their time worrying about abortion and gay marriage, and the Democrates seem to spend most of their time thinking of how to make government bigger and taxing (penalizing) those who are successful and invest, resulting in new jobs. No matter how left or right a person or pary can be, a President can only successfully lead the country from near the center. I see a strong center-conservative leadership strength in John McCain, and unless he pick a VP totally unacceptable to me, I will strongly support his candidacy.

Jun 12, 2008 - 1:48 pm 73. Steve:

As a Democrat and Hilary Clinton supporter in a state that she won (Pennsylvania), I have only one question. Do the people who say McCain has a shot at beating Obama, let alone winning a landslide, really believe what you are saying? Or is this whistling in the dark as you walk past the graveyard?
I hope you really believe it because if you think a win is automatic you are unlikely to do anything to minimize the hurtin’ that is coming your way. I am talking Obama as president, a 60-40 Senate and 250 Dems in the House. Tremble when you ponder the next Supreme Court.

Jun 12, 2008 - 1:54 pm 74. paul b:

TO John Samford

Latest NBC poll has Obama get 62% of the hispanic vote, compared to 28% for McCain. Please do alittle more research before to blog. It will help you sound alittle less STUPID…

Jun 12, 2008 - 1:55 pm 75. Pat Hickey:

McCain will be fine. I’m a Democrat and so are most of my neighbors. We are voting for McCain.

http://hickeysite.blogspot.com/2008/06/john-mccain-cammy-paglia-is-bullish-for.html

Jun 12, 2008 - 1:56 pm 76. Mugwump:

Elections in America are not choices between party platforms as in a parliamentary system. American voters are choosing between individual humans –with strengths and weaknesses — and that is how Dukakis and Kerry were defeated in 1988 and 2004 despite weariness with Republicans.

The fall election will in effect be a referendum on Obama, with McCain a minor player who is blandly acceptable to most voters. The way swing voters view Obama after the debates will decide the election.

Jun 12, 2008 - 2:00 pm 77. Frank Ludtke:

I’ve been a straight-ticket Democrat for more than 30 years, and I have NEVER seen as many good omens for my party. This is starting to look like 1932 or 1964 all over again!

1. Remember Ron Paul? You know, the guy who’s been getting 15%-25% of the Republican primary vote even after McCain locked up the nomination? He’s going to hold a separate convention in Minneapolis, away from the main GOP whine-fest. It will be attended by 11,000 angry wingnut whackos, who’ll probably lead about 15% of the Republican Party out of the “big tent.”

2. Hillary Clinton gave the speech of her life last weekend, endorsing Obama. Hey Rush Limbaugh, how did your “Chaos” strategy work out for you, anyway?

3. Dozens of Republicans in Congress have either publicly refused to endorse McBush, or won’t comment when asked.

4. Democrats hold a 15% lead in party identification.

5. Big majorities of voters think that “change” trumps “experience” this year.

6. 80% of the country thinks that things are headed in the wrong direction.

7. Most of the political professionals think the Democrats will pick up at least eight Senate seats this year, and quite possibly enough more than that to have a filibuster-proof majority.

8. Every sign on the House races points toward another Democratic pickup of 30 or more seats.

9. Obama has a 13% lead in Wisconsin, a competitive state that historically has been receptive to so-called “mavericks” like McCain. Apparently not this year

10. More than half of voters think Obama will win, while barely more than 30% think McCain will win. Translation: Republicans are depressed.

11. The leading liberal commentator, Keith Olbermann, has been steadily gaining on the leading wingnut, Bill O’Lielly, for the last year. Last Friday, he beat O’Lielly in the ratings.

12. Obama will probably have at least four times as much money as McBush.

13. With each passing day, the McBush campaign looks more and more like the McGovern campaign of 1972. The Republican candidate is going from one weakness to the next.

Jun 12, 2008 - 2:05 pm 78. Chris:

To whoever said that Gore was ahead in June was waaaaaay off. gore was behind until AFTER the democractic convention in 2000, at which time he and Bush were neck and neck the entire time. And saying that Kerry was ever ahead is kinda misleading, as it was always WELL within the margin of error(there’s a reason they put that on there, ya know). So yeah, right now McCain has a lotta trouble ahead, but not insurmountable amounts. at this point, it’s anyone’s campaign.

Jun 12, 2008 - 2:13 pm 79. Munk:

Pie-eyed prostitute!? Look, the Republicans will turn things around because Bush will attack Iran, after a terrorist strike against the USA, whether it comes from a terrorist or it is setup to appear that way. The country will then unify behind the Republicans and the Military-Corporate establishment will continue making lots fo $$$$$ while the citizens wrap themselves in patriotism, and die fighting a war that is lining the pockets of the Puppetters, nicely. McCaine, senility in tow, would then hubble into the White House. End of story.

Jun 12, 2008 - 2:15 pm 80. Susan:

I’m part of that 80% who think that the country’s on the wrong track - but not because of Bush. It’s the rise of liberalism that has us on the wrong track. Any country as great as the US that would seriously consider an empty suit like Barrack Obama for president is clearly on the wrong track. I hope I’m not the only one of the 80% who feel that way.

Jun 12, 2008 - 2:23 pm 81. jp:

I have never understood the ‘right track’ question interpretation. I too think we are on the wrong track….but not because of Bush….. I feel that as a country we on on the wrong track because of congress. Has anyone ever considered that?

Jun 12, 2008 - 2:24 pm 82. Paul Joseph:

I think this writer has it backwards . . . it will be Obama who will be blown out on Nov. 4. Hopefully, then we’ll never hear about this fraud again.

Jun 12, 2008 - 2:25 pm 83. Ted:

The operative word is “may” — “may be heading for a shellacking”.

The simple way, not only to avoid that, but to assure his victory, is Alaska Gov Sarah Palin as his Veep. This is not rocket science here.

Jun 12, 2008 - 2:27 pm 84. Frank Ludtke:

There have been two huge surprises for me in this election. First is that Obama won the Democratic nomination. Never would have imagined it. Second is that McBush would turn out to be such a horrendous candidate.

Yeah, I know he was a war hero. That much I respect. And there was a time when he was something of a maverick, but he decided to throw all of that away in the past few years.

The real shocker with him is his health. His doctors can say whatever they want to, but to look at McBush is to see a 71-year-old man going on 90. I’m sorry, but the guy is just out of it. We’re not going to put a senile old goat in the White House, regardless of how much we might have once respected him.

If I were a Republican, I’d be combing through the rule book to see if there was a way to replace him at the Republican convention. Keep him on the ticket, and you’re going to get a butt-kicking that you’ll feel for the next 30 years.

Jun 12, 2008 - 2:27 pm 85. William:

Mr.Moran, you’re not a very good judge of character, are you?

McCain is a great guy whom you’d like to drink a few beers with? McCain is an extreme anti-American, Washington insider, sell-his-country-out lying, back-stabbing career politician. You need to go back and retake introduction to Psychology 101 …ten or twenty times… and get your glasses cleaned.

Jun 12, 2008 - 2:30 pm 86. treshaun:

Sen. Obama is not qualified for the job. He has NO experience this man has not run anything, and people want to elect him to run our country. Plus look at his voting record he was voted the most liberal senator on Capital Hill, more left than Ted Kennedy. He wants to raise taxes on everyone with a soft economy thats a horrible idea. Dont believe it when they say taxes raised just on the most wealthy, because it in the long run taxes poor and middle just as much. Also, look at this man’s judgement/character by who he associates with, and then when the person becomes public and hurts his campaign he throws him under the bus and lies that “this isn’t the guy I knew”. Wake up americans there are a whole bunch of reasons that are public that point to this man being a shady guy, please think before voting. And conservatives yall quit bashing Mccain saying he is too liberal, McCain’s greatest asset is that he works across party lines and doesnt just try to appeal to republicans..

Jun 12, 2008 - 2:40 pm 87. Don:

Statistics can be manipulated to prove any argument. Nothing supports this statement more than the “right track/wrong track” poll. What does it mean anyway? The question is “are we on the right track?” Well, Americans with very different opinions on every issue, including who they will vote for can answer yes to that. Conservatives can say “I believe the country is on the wrong track by voting for liberals and amnesty and not drilling in Alaska.” Liberals can say we are on the wrong track because of the war, even talking about drilling, and not letting every terrorist from every part of the world fly first class on our domestic flights.

And why does “right track/wrong track” signify a poor outlook on Republicans? The Democratic Congress has worse poll numbers than the President in recent history and had a quicker fall from grace than any Congress in recent memory. So why not write about how that is bad news for democratic incumbents in Congress? Hmm…maybe because of your partisanship…

Jun 12, 2008 - 2:50 pm 88. lee:

Isn’t Mccain’s willingness to shift slightly to the center on certain issues exactly what appeals to moderate? Plenty of people are disgusted with the far left but don’t identify with ultra right wingers. Political analysts believe the failure to attract moderate voters cost the GOP in the 2006 elections.

Only about 3 years ago Gov. Arnold Schwarzenneger (dang his long name) introduced reform measures that Californians SOUNDLY rejected. His approval rating dropped like a stone and no one thought he could get reelcted.

But surprise! He hijacked a number of Democrat issues (like the environment) and touted traditional GOP values (tough on crime) at the same time. Phil Angelides tried his hardest to tie Arnold to Bush but he was trounced.

The GOP definitely needs a image makeover, and MCcain is the right person to do it. I agree with the other poster who believes a more straight up conservative like Romney would get destroyed in the election. On social / national security issues Mccain is right up my alley. On immigration and environment, yeah, some problems for him there. (although as a immigrant myself, I tend to think there’s room for a compromise). But I’ll vote for a 80% conservative over someone like Barrack Obama. No president of mine is going to talk to Kim Jong IL without preconditions.

Jun 12, 2008 - 2:51 pm 89. Richard Vail:

John McCain is going to lose this election, not because he’s a bad person, but because he is a terrible campaigner. Some of his policies are misguided and wrong, either that or he’s just plain clueless.

We, as a country, have what are probably the largest reserves of oil and natural gas, but we’ve put them off limits. There are approximately 16 billion barrels of oil just off shore in the Gulf of Mexico, on the continental shelf off of Georgia/North & South Carolina, off of the southern coast of California. There are approximately 10 billion barrels of oil in ANWR, but we’ll not touch that either. In the shale deposits that stretch from southern Colorado to norther Saskatchewon (sp?) there exist as much as 200 BILLION barrels of oil…but we’ll not touch that either.

All of these can be reached without disturbing the environment, despite the fears of many people. In Hurricane Katrina, which demolished a number of oil platforms in the Gulf, there were NO OIL SPILLS!!!! Get that? None.

Our refineries are operating at full blast, and cannot increase their output any more, but we’ve made it virtually impossible to build more, much less expand those that are already existing.

We have some of the largest reserves of uranium on the planet, yet we have made it impossible to build more nuclear power plants. They are safe and as green as green can be. The founder of Greenpeace, has recently come out and stated that he, and his “movement” are wrong for their opposition to nuclear power. He stated in effect, that nuclear power was the only green power source we have.

Ted Kennedy worked tirelessly to wreck the wind turbine plant that would have begun construction in Long Island Sound this summer because it “would ruin the view” of his very wealthy family’s compound in Hyannis Port, MA. Yet, he complains about global warming…

This sort of hypocracy will bring this nation to its knees, unless, we as a country wake up and begin to do something responsible:

Begin Drilling all available reserves;
Begin building wind turbine farms;
Begin building nuclear power plants;
Begin real research into alternative fuel sources
(hydrogen cells that don’t require oil to separate it out)

But basically we must remove our craniums from anus’ before we become a 2nd rate country…

This should be the energy policy of the Republican Party, but I doubt that it will be adopted by them. After all, this was the party out spend it’s way into a permanent majority though earmarks!

Jun 12, 2008 - 2:55 pm 90. Linda Kearney:

I am and have ALWAYS been Republican….60 years worth. That being said I will RELUCTANLY vote McCain (Democrate wannabe Kerry/twin). He is way to liberal to be a good Republican even with being a war hero (that term worn out and I was around during Nam myself and saw his homecoming along with lots who didn’t come back). I WANTED ROMENY (the best of the bunch running and he is still w/wife #1 and a family man and a true AMerican) but twisting WV around Huckabee (still believe that was an underhanded McCain deal)put McCain ahead to get nomination.

I dislike OBama NOT because he is black but because of his associations, his half brothers supporting killing spree overseas and that loud mouth brash Wife of his. His preacher and Catholic priest aren’t as big a deal, unless he goes back to it after the election or has Rev. Wright administer the Pres. oath or rejoins if he wins nomination.

I put part of the blame of his being Demo nominee on OPRAH who supported financially this man and got a grass roots marathon behind him….she should be his VP/first lady.

We will have Muslims and aliens by the score if he gets Pres. and Michelle will help them all. Make your reservation for Australia or Canada now!

Jun 12, 2008 - 2:57 pm 91. John Samford:

“He is pro-war (big mistake right now),”

Darksideofthemoonbat, you are forgetting the time thingie. Iraq will hold an election in October. The will elect a new government. For the first time in the 12,000 + year history of Mesopotoamia.
The birthplace of Civilization, the land where agriculture, cities, and armies were invented. All this means nothing to you of course. You are so wrapped up in your BDS that you cannot see anything else. The first Arab democracy.
The best evidence I can produce to prove that Ohhhhhh…….BAMA and his worshipers are not fit for power is the fact that neither BHO nor you understand what an Arab democracy means. Neither does William, Bill Bradley nor any of the other Obamanics.
Willaim, the man has spent his life in service to America. A concept you don’t understand.

Jun 12, 2008 - 3:00 pm 92. Lord Brian:

The 80% BS gets played too much. DIDJA ever consider that with either Hillary, Obama, or McCain as the next President…that 80% of the people in the US would think…CLEARLY WE ARE HEADING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION.

Obama is going to get stomped. I will bet the author of this blog $50 today. Put your money where your mouth is.

Jun 12, 2008 - 3:01 pm 93. russ:

The 20th Century was the American Century. The 21st Century will be someone else’s Century. Likely it will be the Chinese with their intellectual energy and/or the Muslims (Arabs) with their oil and gas energy. The fact that we as a nation have been consistently nominating and electing to high office a series of utter losers and dimwits to lead us and represent us is proof that we are in the “decline” stage ala “The Decline and Fall of the American Experiment”. The choice between a corrupt Chicago Daley machine puppet and an old arrogant know-nothing is a nadir that I’m not sure we can recover from. I’m buying gold.

Jun 12, 2008 - 3:05 pm 94. Neil:

A wish is all you are hoping for? If Obama had even 5 percent of McCain’s experience a miracle would have happened.

Does a follower mean anything to you? A follower never questions, just says yes, this must sound familiar to you.

The race has just begun, lets see if the rest of the country can see through the Obama slogans, knuckle responses, and empty comments. There is plenty of time to open the eyes of people that are on a Obama FAD ride.

If not, then God help us, Obama will have socialism upon us with communism following.

Jun 12, 2008 - 3:07 pm 95. Peter from Dover NH:

Obama is a media fabricated phoney. There is not much substance. What is there is vile and when revealed it is quickly shrouded in delusional explainations.

McCain is the real thing. He was not in a movie in Vietnam. He does not talk of reaching across the aisle he does it. (Much to the annoyance of many).

What conservative has NObama sponsored a bill with? Oh…no one.

McCain does not give me a tingle up my leg. But I know he will keep the country safe and we will get though the tough economic cycle.

But then again I’m just a typical white person, I still beleive in God, I could be bitter and clinging to my gun daily(In NH I can still have one..)

Jun 12, 2008 - 3:08 pm 96. David A. Bliss:

I too think that America is heading in the wrong direction. But I don’t blame the President. He’s made some mistakes, but he’s done his job. Nearly eight years and no terrorist attack on our soil and Islamic jihadism in retreat all over the world. Unfortunately, the war has not been won. We Americans may approve of the removal of Saddam by greater than 70 percent, but we want nothing to do with a messy insurgency and don’t want to hear history’s lessons that victory belongs to those who adapt and persevere.

I think if John McCain is elected, we win the war against Islamic jihadism. If Barak Obama is elected, I think we lose. Americans want change. Things can get worse. That is change.

Jun 12, 2008 - 3:11 pm 97. Justy:

Hey Frank, did Hillary release her delegates? Hillary’s speech was more self-serving than supportive of Obama. She is just waiting on the chance that some faux pas before the convention KOs Obama.

I agree that it does not look good for McCain. He is refusing to campaign without his PC liner notes. He is refusing to say anything to truly inspire his base. I do like McCain more than Obama, but that is mainly because Obama is plain wrong on so many things.

The trouble with McCain is that he hamstrung his own party on too many occasions. Comprehensive Immigration Reform was a self-inflicted gunshot wound for the GOP. The country clubbers said party be damned we want our slave labor. There will never be another landslide republican election again. That republican party had the full support of all of its wings. McCain is limping along with only the country clubbers truly behind him. The other wings will vote for him, but they will not go balls out for him.

You can say the people will vote against Obama all you want, but do you only that behind you from your own party. I truly hope that McCain has a road to Damascus moment because that will be the only thing which saves him.

Jun 12, 2008 - 3:19 pm 98. Ge:

In the end the Presidency comes down to judgement and character and Mr Obama has shown an apalling lack of either.
If Congress has such a low approval rating shouldn’t we see a “House” cleaning this fall?
I know, I know but I’m trying to see some sense in all this.

Jun 12, 2008 - 3:33 pm 99. Dave II:

Wow! Looks like this article really brought out the Obamabots! (Funny…on the same day he lauches his “fight the smear” website, too. Hmmmm…)

Thanks, Ted, for mentioning Sarah Palin. If McCain chooses her Obama can start planning a nice long vacation!

Jun 12, 2008 - 3:34 pm 100. Terry Gain:

McCain could do with some significant improvement is several areas including alleged climate change and unnecessary civility to opponents who don’t extend the same courtesy to him. But all of this pales in comparison to the devastating and overriding fact that Barack Obama’s position on Iraq today is exactly the same as it was pre-Surge.

Obama is an ideologue with the wrong ideas who won’t listen, learn or change. He is hopeless and would be a disaster as POTUS.

Jun 12, 2008 - 3:42 pm 101. Ron Adolph:

You state the problems that McCain faces well. He is just plain vanilla and next to Obama even looks more so. He is like many from his generation, he really is uncomfortable blowing his own horn; he is possessed of neither charisma nor glibness and he seems to have a great deal of difficulty talking about the incredible things that he has accomplished.

His opponent, on the other hand is attractive, possessed of great charisma, and confident to the point of arrogance.

McCain doesn’t play well with evangelicals because he likes to keep that part of his life private as many of us do.

He doesn’t play well to the Bush Republicans because they think that you can just keep on cutting taxes without cutting spending and this big happy train will just keep on chugging along.

He doesn’t play well with social conservatives because, again as most of us do, he really doesn’t want to tell other people how they should lead their lives.

He’s just plain vanilla and your right the R brand is doomed this time anyway.

Oh well! It won’t be the first time we have elected and abject racist to the Presidency the only difference is this one will be black.

I never can remember who said it………..but it applies………”people get the government they deserve.”

Ron Adolph

Jun 12, 2008 - 3:46 pm 102. Mo:

If the whole country has gone deaf, blind, and daft - Obamessiah has a chance of winning in a landslide.

The man has words without substance - the men who get thrills up their legs should think twice about what they’re saying…and believing.

Jun 12, 2008 - 3:47 pm 103. Coach:

Uh, let’s recall 90+ % of Americans, including a huge Congressional majority, felt the president should prosecute the UN’s war on Irag.
There very well could be a landslide unless the Ozambies wake up.

Jun 12, 2008 - 3:53 pm 104. typicalwhiteperson:

B. Husein Obama is under 5 points in the RCP average. He should be plus 30 or more. The mastermind who wrote this misses the big point, McCain is doing great under the circumstances and I realize he has only been to 50 states while Obama has been to “57 states” but who is counting. Typical white people like me will not vote for an empty suit who has memerized the left.

Jun 12, 2008 - 4:29 pm 105. GOPCentrist:

McCain is the GOP’s Mondale. This election won’t be close, the Democrats are falling in line (and love) with Obama. The Independents too. There is absolutely no enthusiasm on the GOP side — McCain is an unpalatable candidate. Mayor Rudy could have pulled this election out for the GOP, McCain doesn’t have the money, the organization or enough faith from his party to even come close.

If the polls start showing Obama even or slightly ahead in states like IN and MT that will be the tipping point that he will win by over 100 electoral votes.

A good butt whippin’ by Obama will be a blessing is disguise for the GOP. The party can finally rid itself of the Christian Right and stop with the BS on moral high-ground issues and actually start behaving like Republicans — you know, the guys who believe in fiscal restraint.

Jun 12, 2008 - 4:34 pm 106. Frank Ludtke:

Dave II, it takes a Republican to equate facts and opinions based on facts with “smears.” It must be hard to think clearly when you’re part of a group whose appeal has included opposition to facts and has equated political opposition to treason.

Justy, nope, Clinton didn’t release her delegates. But this week I was on a campaign finance conference call for big donors and was told that I’m going to be receiving a check for my $2,300 general election contribution. There are words and then there are numbers, and I’ve always been something of a numbers guy especially when there is a dollar sign in front of the number.

As for McCain not being sufficiently wingnutty, I agree that this is a big problem for him. I mean, even after he became the “presumptive nominee,” Ron Paul was getting 15%, 20% and 25% in Republican primaries. He’ll be holding a convention of his own because the Republicans decided to keep him off the stage. I do believe that my terminally disorganized “Democrat Party” is better at handling dissent than your Corporate Weenie Party.

Make my day, please! I know you will. I can already see what’s happening to McBush. I watch him on TV, looking more than a little haggard as he throws out red meat to the nutcases and then tries to act like he didn’t say what he just said. It’s very entertaining, and I happen to think that the show is only beginning.

Just wait until he gets crushed. The tinfoil hat brigade will be screaming for blood, while the Wall Streeters and suburbanites will be switching registrations like crazy. If you think 2008 is a problem, just wait for four years.

Jun 12, 2008 - 4:35 pm 107. Curley:

This column isn’t just wishful thinking it is delusional and it is not thinking. Barack Obama has no more chance of winning this election than Adlai Stevenson had to beat Ike. In fact it is all very similar to 1952 and 1956, Korean War, Iraq war, fighter pilot, Supreme Alllied Commander, Arrogant egghead lefty pinko, arrogant egghead, lefty pinko. Only in this case the arrogant lefty, pinko, egghead says that he isn’t and denies his entire past, lies about it and all of his radical friends and then restates in slightly more palatable terms all of the leftist trash that anyone with a brain rejects from any and all experience that they have ever had in their lives. Obama is the “Counter-Revolutionary” he is the counter revolutionary to the original American Revolution. America will no longer even pretend to be the “land of opportunity” with BO it will be the area of “intensified confiscation.” I can’t wait for the re education camps either. Anyone notice how “annoyed” Obama becomes at any perceived inquiry into his real “ideas” and his real past and present? It isn’t a pretty sight. You should read what they said about Obamas arrogance in and with the black community in Chicago…when Bobby Rush beat Obama for congress people in the district said they could see what he was…a condescending phony and “we sent him running,” their words. That’s your “man” and he is weak. In Midwest terms he is a “leaker.”

Jun 12, 2008 - 4:51 pm 108. John:

It’s the electoral vote, stupid!

Jun 12, 2008 - 4:53 pm 109. Flexo:

Why is the “Republican brand” so low in public opinion?

Could one reason possibly be that John McCain has spent the last eight years opposing and trashing Republicans??? Maybe if Mr. Maverick had spent a moment or two promoting Republican causes, the “brand” would not be in the tank.

Make no mistake, it was McCain and his ilk that actively, knowingly, and purposely attacked and destroyed the brand.

Jun 12, 2008 - 4:56 pm 110. Dave Chmela:

Right after 9/11’s speech from the rubble at Ground Zero, President Bush’s approval rating was 87%….

You wanted to know when Americans agreed on ANYTHING more than 80%?

THERE YOU GO!
Bush 87%.
Guess you forgot about 9/11.
Typical.

Jun 12, 2008 - 5:06 pm 111. Frank Ludtke:

“Only in this case the arrogant lefty, pinko, egghead says that he isn’t and denies his entire past, lies about it and all of his radical friends and then restates in slightly more palatable terms all of the leftist trash that anyone with a brain rejects from any and all experience that they have ever had in their lives.”

—–

Curley, does it give you a special little thrill down by your bicycle seat when you talk like that? You wingnuts just crack me up!

Jun 12, 2008 - 5:06 pm 112. Rob:

It’s funny how all the divisive, American hating, arrogant, deceptive, tinfoil hat wearing nutjobs come out of the woodwork on both sides of the aisle. In ‘04 it was the Michael Moore types, this year it is the Sean Hannity apologists. The uninformed haters that call Obama a “socialist” and predict an end to America have got to get over themselves. The fact is that David Friedman (the anarcho-capitalist son of Libertarian guru Milton Friedman) supports Obama over McCain, on foriegn policy AND the economy as do other staunch Libertarians. Must suck to be McCain, and have 90% of Dems, 60% of independents, Libertarians to the RIGHT of him, some GOP voters, and some GOP leaders like Chuck Hagel against him. Oh yeah and the religious right really has a problem supporting him which is why Huckabee was getting 25% of the vote even though it was over a couple months ago. Good luck Mr McCain, I respect you but you are going to get spanked this Fall.

Jun 12, 2008 - 5:10 pm 113. Cam:

Uh, let’s recall 90+ % of Americans, including a huge Congressional majority, felt the president should prosecute the UN’s war on Irag.
There very well could be a landslide unless the Ozambies wake up.
Jun 12, 2008 - 3:53 pm

WOW now Iraq was the UNs war??????
John Bolton must have been Mother Theresa?????
The UN urged restraint and George W launched his war the the Band of the willing who are no longer willing.
War on Terror is in Afghanistan never was in Iraq
Where are the WMD ?????
OH well typical revisionism Reupublican Garbage
Looking forward to Texas going Blue

Cam

Jun 12, 2008 - 5:13 pm 114. Cranky:

I’m encouraged by the predictions in these comments of Obama being thoroughly trounced. McCain is fine… I can’t bear the thought of the oily, vapid fraud Obama as POTUS.

Jun 12, 2008 - 5:16 pm 115. DrRay from Ohio:

Conservative Republican morons here are day-dreaming. We Americans are not so stupid to vote for the third-term of a Republican Administration that devalued the dollar (through the war and tax cuts to the rich), ruined the economy and killed thousands of our young men and women in a needless war.

Here’s one Hillary supporter gladly switching to Obama against McBush

God bless America! Obama-Clinton ‘08!

Jun 12, 2008 - 5:28 pm 116. JO3:

Tom wrote: “The possibility of a terrorist attack within the US exists but the the
chances are very low.”
Actually, the terorists may percieve BO’s success as the perfect time to strike: remember that the jihadists only understand savagery and brutality and see anything less as weakness. They most likely see the popularity of Obama and the public’s desire to get out of Iraq as cowardice on America’s part, and believe that a fresh terror strike would be precisely the thing to drive us into complete retreat.

Jun 12, 2008 - 5:59 pm 117. Bill:

This is a close contest or a landslide with McCain winning, an Obama landslide is a joke. Looks like Obama’s plan is once again to win by saying his competition has lost. You can fool some of the people some of the time but I doubt enough of the people this time, to elect someone who if you look closely has done nothing except sell a bunch of books & gotten rich at the expense of an election that should have been the democrats, but now will not be. Thanks Barry.

Jun 12, 2008 - 6:11 pm 118. George N Arizona:

With the favorable rating of congress at 20% or less, over 10% less than Bush tells me that all incumbents of either party may be in serious trouble. As a Republican and a retired military officer I’m considering Obama for my vote. It will depend on his VP pick of course, I hope he picks wisely. For the rest I’m voting against any incumbent that I can. It’s time for a massive change. The opportunity to turn this country around is upon us.

Jun 12, 2008 - 6:17 pm 119. Deanna:

Very nice gloss over McCain’s divorce and remarriage…left out the part that speaks to integrity though..one has to wonder why?
Facts? His wife waited the 5 years he was held captive. She suffered a horific car accident while he was being held captive. When he came home she had suffered and was in a wheel chair, disfigured.
He began to cat around on her…this woman who had waited.
He married his right wife, Cindy, 1 month to the day after he divorced his wife..who had waited.
She was a model when he enlisted and when he came home she was nothing more than a faitful wife who had also suffered.
Go bleed for John McCain somewhere else.

Jun 12, 2008 - 6:18 pm 120. gary:

It’s all very simple really. Those who place party before country will vote Obama, those who place country before party will vote McCain. It should be McCain’s campaign slogan - “country before party”. His entire life story screams this. His campaign needs to do the same.

Jun 12, 2008 - 6:23 pm 121. David P:

The America hating left will fulfill it’s grandest ambitions if our nation refuses to examine the catastrophic legacies of democratic foreign policies. Carter & Clinton’s reckless & naive decisions have led to nuclear Mullahs in Tehran and an Israel devastated by blood thirsty Arafatnicks.

Iraq is a foothold for the United States, no longer welcome in Saudi Arabia, we needed to set up shop somewhere. It wasn’t going to be like our welcome in the kingdom, the end goal was to establish ourselves, and at the same time hopefully settle the country. In time those logistics would work themselves out, the primary threat was and has always been Iran. Tis better to establish forward operating bases sooner rather then later.

Jun 12, 2008 - 6:47 pm 122. BeanGuy:

This is the first article I’ve read predicting an Obama landslide, and I don’t see it. ‘Bama’s details have barely been noted by the general public, and when they do, they’ll see that there is nothing behind the curtain but a run-of-the-mill liberal. I think the last thing the voters will want in a time of war or a time of recession is a political neophyte intent on taxing everyone in the name of “fairness.” McCain has come back from deeper holes than this, both literally and figuratively, and this will be another one.

Jun 12, 2008 - 7:01 pm 123. Jim:

McCain’s general election strategy seems to be like his primary strategy: Play dead and wait for his opponents to screw up. Then win the election by default.

McCain will pull about 90% of Republicans. Republicans can vote Huckabee or Paul now because there are no consequences. Obama will pull about 85% of Democrats. Hillary supporters are mad, but most will vote for Obama. The independents will decide the election, and they can break either way.

I see three different scenerios:

1988 - Democratic challenger gets a huge lead by DNC. However, once voters get to know the two candidates, the Democrat is simply too liberal. The uninspiring, but safe Republican wins the election.

1976 - Uninspiring Republican associated with an extremely unpopular President runs against an inexperienced Democratic agent for change that brings great pride to a certain subsection of the population. Democrat leads most of the way, but Republican closes late for a photo finish.

Reverse 1980 - Race between an unpopular incumbent (party) and a challenger viewed by many to be too extreme to be President. The challenger reminds many of a big time loser that the party ran in the not to distant past. Polls stay close until the end. However, the nation wants change and the challeger wins big along with his party.

Even if Iraq continues to improve, that won’t necessarily help McCain. Remember Winston Churchill: After five years of blood, toil, tears, and sweat, the British population voted him out of office right after VE day. He had won the war, and the population felt that he was no longer necessary. As Iraq improves, the economy comes more to the forefront.

Jun 12, 2008 - 7:02 pm 124. Balanced:

So how can any economy be balanced if an unneccessary war is taking the lives of our young folks and draining our resources to the tune of millions of dollars per day? I am waiting for the Democrats to call the cost of war in Iraq with regards to Blackwater and Halliburton etc…it will be really messy. McC does not have a real plan on the economy, he just recycles the republic mantra of letting big business do what it likes at the expense of main street folks - can you say tax cuts only for the rich?. Note that several articles of impeachment - for breaking important laws - are in place, but held up pending in the judicial committee, lodged against Bush and Cheney. Remember that our laws and constitution are apparently what sets us apart from many countries. Also the Republicans are arguing the Iraq war and the so-called battle against islamic extremist from a point of view lacking in knowledge.
The facts of the islamic extremism are as follows:
1. The branch of fundamentalist islam is called wahabism - and relates to an ultra conservative sunni faith.
2. The ultra conservative/wahabi sunni’s treat safi and shia as apostates - ie no better than jews or christians.
3. Wahabism started in Iraq but is still commonplace in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan etc - even after several schools where shut down after 9/11.
4. Funded by Saudi Arabia oil dollars the wahabi have become very powerful in the islamic world, and have a influential role in islamic religious reform in the ME region.
5. So when the Iraqi’s hold their elections and the Sunni’s take an active part - hopefully they are the moderate ones not the wahabi.
6. Occupying for an extended period an islamic nation means that the extremist gain legitimacy, better to do the deed (get Saddam) and then leave.
7. Iraqi lawmakers have again recently asked us to leave their country.
Hopefully the democrats will have achange of heart and actually continue impeachment proceedings against Bush and Cheney on Iraq etc now in the Judicial committee. It would be nice in the 4th July addresses expected from both nominees, if Obama launches a full attack on republican breaches of law.
Once again repulicans are convenient with the truth or just dont know where the facts are at basically, also I do think that they doth protest too much.

Jun 12, 2008 - 7:07 pm 125. Jim:

McCain is trailing in the national polls, but he’s doing far better in the electoral college. He’s down 272-266, if you include all leaners. Flip one state, any state, and McCain wins.

The reason for the discrepancy is that McCain doesn’t have the same margins in the “red states” that Bush did. Increased African American turnout will cut his margin in the South. However, it doesn’t matter if McCain wins NC by 1% or by 10%, he still wins. Obama is also doing better in the great plains and the mountain west than Kerry or Gore. Still, he will probably lose the same states that Kerry and Gore did, with the possible exception of Colorado.

Jun 12, 2008 - 7:07 pm 126. Dan R.:

While I suppose anything is possible, I think that the authors concerns about McCain’s chances in the Fall are unfounded.

First of all, despite about as unfavorable an environment for an the Republicans as you could possibly imagine (a free-fall in housing values, an unpopular war, gasoline prices spiking, an economic slowdown, a credit crunch, and a republican president with an approval rating hovering around 30 percent), McCain is still hanging right there with Obama. In fact, Obama’s post-nomination-clinching “bounce” looks to have been only 3 or 4 percentage points. I know that the McCain people were expecting an 8 to 10 point bounce.

McCain has a lot of things in his favor. For one thing, despite the public’s fascination with Obama, America is still, philosophically, a center/right country. This is precisely where McCain falls on the ideological spectrum. Obama, on the other hand, is a committed leftist who is rated as an even more liberal Senator than people like Ted Kennedy and Chris Dodd. The task for the Republicans over the next 4 1/2 months will be to get Americans to take a hard look at Obama’s voting record as well as the people with whom he’s chosen to associate himself during his adult life. If they can do that, a significant number of voters are going to begin to re-think their infatuation with Obama.

Secondly, the fact that we are now unquestionably winning the Iraq War will help McCain. Most Ametricans might think it was a bad idea to go in to begin with, but most also think that now that we’re in it, we need to win it. McCain had the guts to stand up and call for more troops when it was profoundly unpopular. Obama, on the other hand, has consistently advocated throwing in the towel and accepting defeat for almost four years now, apparently oblivious to the utterly disasterous consequences of such a policy. Mark this down: Americans don’t respect wimps and they don’t respect quitters. Obama is VERY vulnerable on the “wimp” issue.

Third, gas prices can be a major issue FOR McCain IF … and only if …. the Republicans can get voters to understand that it’s been the Democrats who, over the past 30 years, have consistently blocked every Republican effort to open up US reserves to drilling. Had they not done so, we wouldn’t all be paying through the nose at the pump today. If there’s one issue that has Americans pissed today, it’s gasoline prices. But right now, polls show that most voters blame the Republicans for high gas prices. The GOP simply cannot afford to let the Democrats off the hook on this issue. This could be a game-winner … or a game-loser … for them.

Then there’s the experience issue. Voters may say it doesn’t make that much of a difference to them, but in fact it does count for a lot. Look at Joe Lieberman’s Senate race in 2006 against Ned Lamont. The “nutroots” gave Lamont the victory in the Democratic primary, but in the general election, voters in Connecticut, a very Dmeocratic state, went for the experienced candidate in a big way.

Finally, there are a lot of white Democrats out there who might be telling the pollsters that they intend to vote for Obama but who, when it comes time to close the curtain to the voting booth, simply won’t quite be ready to vote for a black man for president, certainly not one who pals around with the likes of Jerimiah Wright, Louis Farrakahn and William Ayers. I’d guess that these people account for 3-4% of the electorate, maybe more. So, taking that into account, I think this race is pretty much dead even right now.

Barack Obama is still largely an unknown quantity for most voters. He looks great in the suit and he gives a terrific stump speech, no doubt. However, as time goes on, the 10% of voters in the middle … those who will decide the election … are going to want more specicics, and the Republicans aren’t going to be nearly as reserved in defining them as his Democratic primary opponents were. My guess is that the more people find out about who Barack Obama really is and what he represents, the better John McCain is gonna look.

Jun 12, 2008 - 7:20 pm 127. MS:

Put down the crack pipe. By the time November roles around Dinos will be crying for Hillary to be the nominee. McCain is rather dull but will beat Obama like a drum. The intellectual elite will once again be exposed as over exuberant for their casting away of Clinton and hitching their wagon to a well spoken but dishonest and brain dead man child known as Obama. Vocabulary does not equate with intellect.

Jun 12, 2008 - 7:23 pm 128. Frank Ludtke:

Those who place party before country will vote Obama, those who place country before party will vote McCain.

——

It’s always fun to watch Republicans who think they own the American flag, when in fact they love their country so much that they’re willing to send thousands of people do die in a war for nothing, started on a lie, simply because the president was a Republican who convinced them that he believes in God.

Jun 12, 2008 - 7:25 pm 129. Jim Thompson:

McSame. That is what it all comes down to. He is nothing but McSame.

Jun 12, 2008 - 7:28 pm 130. Truthsader:

Liberal FactCheck. Pajamas Media’s article, “This way to the apocolypse,Mr. Mccain” constitutes misinformation. Please correct it. Your statements are definitely untrue. See Rasmussen Reports, May 30, 2008. See article “McCain Trusted More Than Obama on Economy, Iraq, National Security”. When it comes to election time, HOPEFULLY, thinking Americans will choose the candidate they consider more competent in those areas they consider most important. The fact is that, to date, based on Rasmussen Reports survey, more Americans consider John McCain more capable with regard to the economy and national security.

Jun 12, 2008 - 7:47 pm 131. Truthsader:

Liberal FactCheck. Pajamas Media’s article, “This way to the apocolypse,Mr. Mccain” constitutes misinformation. Please correct it. Your statements are definitely untrue. See Rasmussen Reports, May 30, 2008. See article “McCain Trusted More Than Obama on Economy, Iraq, National Security”. When it comes to election time, HOPEFULLY, thinking Americans will choose the candidate they consider more competent in those areas they consider most important. The fact is that, to date, based on Rasmussen Reports survey, more Americans consider John McCain more capable with regard to managing the economy and maintaining national security. Of course those MOST CONCERNED about the economy and healthcare support Obama, the welfare state liberal. Fortunately, overall the economy is OK-to-fine, with 5.5% unemployment, and we are winning the war in Iraq.

Jun 12, 2008 - 7:54 pm 132. JO3:

On McCain’s divorce/remarriage: I will not condone what he did, it was wrong nad his wife deserved better.
However I won’t condem him either: I can’t even imagine how I would be after 5 years of imprisonment & torture.
I would reserve judgement until I hear his thoughts on it: remorse, etc. I haven’t heard what he says about it, or her either. Links anyone?

Jun 12, 2008 - 7:57 pm 133. JO3:

Where are the WMD ?????

Actually, we’ve found several hundred thousand tons of WMD, just not what we were expecting. It’s all leftovers from the 90’s, which he was supposed to have disposed of. Not the hot nuclear program we were expecting, but still a violation of the cease fire from Gulf I.

Jun 12, 2008 - 8:02 pm 134. Andrew P:

Forget about meaningless polls. Look at actual results. The Mississippi special election shows that Republicans face total and absolute doom on Nov 4. A district that a Republican should have won by 15 was lost by 8. All those newly registered black and student Obama voters swarmed to the polls and voted (D). The Republican turnout was just normal. McCain will pull normal, at best. Normal won’t cut it on Nov 4. Obama will double the black vote and triple the student vote, and that is the end of the Republican Party.

Jun 12, 2008 - 8:37 pm 135. Franc:

Obama will not carry Florida - you can bank on it. McCain will also probably carry Michigan and Ohio which will make Obama’s job much harder. McCain may pick up places like NJ and will get most of the south. The Democrats are totally against developing U.S. oil reserves. We have 4 times the Saudis reserves in shale oil, coal diesel and 100 billion barrels of oil in North Dakota. This is why gas is $4 a gallon. The Big oil companies no longer control the oil, the countries control it like Russia, Venezela, Nigeria etc. The Democrats also cheered the Gitmo SCOTUS decision which is pro-terrorists. Barrack Hussein Obama is no shoe in. McCain is a Democrat. Obama could barely beat Hillary and limped to the finish line there. He is a much weaker candidate than the fawning media is letting on. McCain is going to win.

Jun 12, 2008 - 8:56 pm 136. Jeff:

Simply put there are not enough blacks and far left liberals to vote for Obama. Face it when push comes to shove most of hillarys support and independants will vote for mcCain in large numbers. All this manufactured obama mania will be history in a few months because America is not ready to elect this far left wing democrat that happens to be black and have an angry spouse…ouch!!!

Jun 12, 2008 - 8:59 pm 137. Dave in Philly:

The author of this article forgot an issue where more than 80% of people agreed on it. That was eminent domain, when the liberal wing of the Supreme Court decided that the government could seize your house and give it to a private developer to enhance the community.

The polling showed that over 90% of people disagreed with this Supreme Court decision. (Kelo vs. New London)

So, with Obama, you get more judges who think the govt. can take your house for private development, as if people didn’t have enough to worry about with foreclosure and all.

Jun 12, 2008 - 9:08 pm 138. Dave in Philly:

Andrew P,

that Mississippi special election you mention was actually won by a Blue Dog (Travis Childers) who was actually more of a conservative than his Republican counterpart! Check it out!

Jun 12, 2008 - 9:14 pm 139. Sep:

Remember one thing - there is no change if Democrats take control of the White House. The Dems control the House and Senate, which approval rating is extemely low (around 17-18%). Bush’s approval rating is about 32%. Why allow a McGovern/Jimmy Carter candidate Obama take the White House when it is the same old lib stuff that ruins the U.S., especially when as stated: the Dems hold control of the House & Senate. They have failed us miserable!

Jun 12, 2008 - 9:17 pm 140. Curley:

Frank Ludtkes brilliant riposte to my post(e) is my favorite. He loved what I said so much that he repeated it verbatim and asked if it felt good. Like a slam dunk for the win in the finals, baby. I am gettin’ my respect.
B.O.’s “program” is to say nothing and whine…when he says something that would be substance from a real person he has to back track, flip flop, deny it or throw some new body under the B.O. bus. A 41% loss to Hillary in West Virginia says not this year boys and girls. Democratic voters by a majority think that B.O. is, shall we say, not telling the truth. Hillary’s women are organizing for McCain. B.O. is not getting the Jewish vote and he isn’t getting the latino vote and he isn’t getting the white vote…he is going to kick butt in the radical, leftist, pinko, egghead vote though. I think he wins the “God damn America vote” and the “white men’s greed runs a world in need” vote, not to mention the pro-Chavez, pro Castro, pro North Korean, pro Iranian, pro Mugabe voters of whom there are several. Has B.O. come out in favor of the pinko crack down on Tibet yet?

Jun 12, 2008 - 9:17 pm 141. Jim:

“You don’t spend 5 1/2 years in a prison camp suffering serious injuries, receiving the most brutal beatings, and emerge alive and relatively well adjusted. Some in McCain’s position gave up and died.”

Gave up?

How about “were murdered by their captors.” Like they chose to “give up.”

Jun 12, 2008 - 9:27 pm 142. Curley:

Hey Ludtke, tell us what it’s like to have $2,300 big ones laid on the line for a dope who can’t mumble his way out of a paper bag without a telepromp-ter? B.O. says “We’ve been to 57 states so far but my staff hasn’t let me get to Hawaii or Alaska yet.” DQed baby, that is a DQ. No one running for President of the United States moves on with that one. He would flunk his citizenship test. He would be laughed out of the naturalization office. What are the 59 states Ludtke?

Jun 12, 2008 - 9:33 pm 143. Ted:

This is not rocket science.
Palin as McCain’s Veep.

Jun 12, 2008 - 9:36 pm 144. Diane:

You are correct in feeling sorry for John McCain. He is a supremely qualified candidate who is likely to be nudged out of the White House by a young, P.C. and very charming candidate. The fact that that charming candidate has no experience and a host of problems that makes him a very dangerous choice in this most dangerous of times doesn’t seem to faze anyone. The threat of terrorism and its assured continuance in our lifetimes is like the 300 pound gorilla in our living room that everyone is pretending not to see. While Mr. Obama talks talks simplistically about “change”, the rallying cry of all campaigns, there will be no change on the part of the terrorists. They want us dead, plain and simple. Obama in the White House will make that desire flame even higher considering the fact that, as our President, he will be considered an “apostate muslim” and, as such, according to their Koran, requiring death…preferably by beheading. It’s hard to imagine any constructive negotiations taking place between Muslim terrorists and the world-wide object of their hatred. Any chance for peace in the Middle East will be completely lost if Obama wins the White House…they will never sit down with him. Americans must get over their irrational obsession with charming men in the White House (Kennedy, Reagan, Clinton) and value substance, especially in this time of great danger. Let’s hope cooler heads prevail.

Jun 12, 2008 - 9:39 pm 145. Prozac:

The landslide is going to come from the tsunami of angry voters who will have one thing in mind when they vote: CHANGE. It is not likely that McCain can sucessfully market himself as an agent of change.

Jun 12, 2008 - 9:41 pm 146. Frank Ludtke:

Actually, Curley, I asked you if you got a sexual thrill out of it. Looks like you do.

Jun 12, 2008 - 9:45 pm 147. Frank Ludtke:

Franc, McBush ain’t gonna carry Ohio or Michigan. In case you haven’t noticed, Obama is now leading in both states, and that’s before the new round of auto industry layoffs that have been announced. You can kiss those states goodbye.

Oh, and in Ohio, the state government is now controlled by Democrats so the old voter fraud tactics of ‘04 aren’t going to fly. You can have Florida. I think we ought to give it back to Spain anyway. Those people don’t know how to count.

Jun 12, 2008 - 9:48 pm 148. Jay Bryant:

The wild card is if Iran and Venezuela spend the next 5 months filling their own oil storage facilities, and quietly “not loading” their tankers. Oil goes to 200, or more, but they are “supplying” at full production, right? No, they are sitting on their supply, until after the election. Then in November they can sell forward contracts on their massive accummulation, after the US throws in the towel on Senator John McBush of course. Ahmadinijad and Chavez break even on their oil “trade”, but influence elections for a “friendlier” Obama.

…

Jun 12, 2008 - 9:52 pm 149. AR:

AJ said:
“He’s no leader and frankly, not that swift w/o his prepared speeches from the teleprompter. That his cult members/supporters don’t realize this is very telling.”

That you judge his intellect based on his speaking rather than the brilliant content of his two books is - wait for it - very telling.

Jun 12, 2008 - 10:04 pm 150. Dan R.:

“McSame. That is what it all comes down to. He is nothing but McSame.”

Well Jim, I’d much rather have another four years of George Bush than another gour years of Jimmy Carter, which is exactly what we’d be getting with Barack Obama: an untested, idealistic leftist neophyte who’s in way over his head.

Bush has screwed up a lot of things, no doubt. But he’s kept us safe here at home (no attacks here since 9.11.01) and he’s royally kicked Al-Qaeda’s ass all over the world. In that regard, “McSame” doesn’t sound all that bad.

Jun 12, 2008 - 10:13 pm 151. chris:

Obama has been foisted on Democrats by people who look down on Democrats. Anyone who doesn’t support him is painted as downscale, uneducated, and racist.

Does it really work to insult the Democratic base? The New Deal base of the party has been told to sit down and shut up. This is unlikely to work.

I guess those not gaga for Obama are just too pitifully stupid to understand how exactly he’ll fix all the world’s problems in his first term. Those who think he’ll be able are pitifully naive.

Politics really hasn’t changed much since the founding of the country. Interest groups switch the parties they back, but the underlying substance is not that variable. But the new guy with the good speeches is going to change everything.

Get over yourselves!

Jun 12, 2008 - 10:20 pm 152. Scott:

I thought some of these posts would be rather funny.
Mccain may be the worst candidate I have ever seen. He is going down “Bob Dole” style or maybe even worse. This is pathetic. I cant watch anymore. Obama will feel so bad about what happened to Mccain that he might just give him a job.

These people that think the E Map is not looking good for Obama are just still in neocon denial. Turnout alone will change 3 or 4 of states to Obama. Mccain has no money. He is beaten and beaten badly. This election will not be close. The media is just trying to keep it close so all of you continue to watch. It’s over guys. Time to go back and rebuild like your hero newt says. Landslide ‘08.

Jun 12, 2008 - 10:20 pm 153. Jim in Texas:

If anyone wonders why Republicans are losing, just look at the morons on this board. Here are some more of the reasons why you can bet McCain will lose:
Money. McCain’s going to run out of it long before Obama does.
Organization. As the Clintons just learned, Obama has built the stealth bomber of political campaigns; McCain has the equivalent of a bicycle with wings and a propeller.
But most importantly, THE Math. Alan Abramawitz has devised a very accurate formula for predicting the outcome of Presidential elections. See: Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball entitled THE TRIPLE WHAMMY. Its based on the current President’s approval rating, the growth of GDP, and the number of years the Pres. has been in office. McCain scores a negative 63. That puts his chances on par with Carter in 1980 and Adlei Stevenson in 1952. Both of those where landslides.
Just one more note to all you wing nuts. Who is the real leader, Barrack Obama, or John McCain? If you said McCain, you’re wrong. A true leader wins adversaries over to become allies. McCain can’t get his own party to accept his leadership, how will he get anything done? We can’t wait 4 more years for gridlock to thaw, and we can’t afford any more Republicans. We have 2 oil men in the White House and the price of oil has QUINTUPLED ( thats 5 times! ) since we invaded Iraq. Is that a coincidence, or are Bush and Cheney a couple of crooks doing everything they can to run up the price of oil? Stop being stupid and stop voting for crooks.

Jun 12, 2008 - 10:24 pm 154. Bigben:

Why the polls are not reflective of an ultimate McCain win.
1. Bradley effect.
2. Subtle racism or nagging doubt about a Black man as POTUS.
3. Wright, Ayers, Rezko,Michelle;
4.Michelle, Ayers, Wright, Rezko.
5. 2 years in the Senate.
6. Inarticulate when away from the teleprompter;
7. Backlash to the MSM and Hollywood;
8. 9/11.
9. Iran;
10. High taxes planned by Obama.

Jun 12, 2008 - 10:28 pm 155. lee:

Obama supporters, please tell me how Obama will resurrect the economy. He says he’ll raise the minimum wage every year and end tax breaks for outsourcing companies, which won’t help a bit. He RIGHTFULLY opposes the stupid “gas tax holiday” idea championed by both Mccain and Clinton, but he appears to be in line with the democrats in their equally dubious “windfall profit tax” that failed badly during the Carter admnistration. He appears to be anti free trade, although he looks like he’s undecided on that point. I can go on, but Obama’s economic plan is more or less derived from the tired old “Let’s make the establishment pay” or “The rich are taking a free ride so they should contribute” sentiments that will get nothing done.

America have been fundamentally flawed in certain areas of the economy for some time, and doing something about it will help. Companies aren’t outsourcing programming and other jobs to India out of some brotherly love. It might be emotionally satfisying for frustrated Americans to blame it all on Bush, because the answer would be as simple as removing him from office. But it’s not.

Although I lean conservative, I never voted for Bush or Mccain in my life, so your ready made “You detestable brainwashed GOP freak” line doesn’t apply. Not all Americans will subscribe to “if you hate Bush than vote for Obama who’s nothing like him” line of logic.

On foreign policy, what can I say. No president of mine is going to talk to Kim Jong IL without preconditions.

Jun 12, 2008 - 10:33 pm 156. Genevieve:

Economy is #1 priority right now for Americans. Time to call in Mitt Romney, he knows economics, has worked in the private sector, and turned many companies around…even the Olympics mess. Who do the Dems have to pull in as a VP with such experience?
As to Sen. McCain needing funds, the GOP has more at their disposal and he is raising millions. I will thank Pres. Bush for one thing, the tax incentive check sure made it easier for me to donate funds to Sen. McCain’s campaign!
My bet is on McCain this Nov.

Jun 12, 2008 - 11:07 pm 157. canadian:

i don’t understand why americans think enacting socialist programs like universal healthcare means that the fundamentals of your society (capitalism) would collapse. i get paid and get cheap drugs and free visits to the doctor. so does the guy down the street (yes, joe from canada - you know him?).

time to wake up down there and pass some “progressive” policies and catch up with the rest of the world. it’s not communism…it’s taking care of everyone in your country that you love so much. if you really love it, you’d take care of eachother and make sure you all are healthy, prosperous, etc. stop being so greedy and give a few more pennies to building a better human kind.

capitalism is not the be all end all. norway has it going on.

go obama!

Jun 12, 2008 - 11:09 pm 158. Jeremy Janson:

Problem with this analysis: It is treating the entire country as one whole. If you notice on RCP, McCain is beating Obama in a state that absolutely SHOULD NOT go red, Michigan, and I don’t think it’s just because of the democrat primary delegates game. This is a state which is 1) a labor union stronghold, 2) traditionally blue, or has been for the past few elections, 3) heavilly African American. It seems to me from those three facts, plus it’s uber high unemployment rate, Obama should be beating McCain by double-digits, with or without the mindlessness of the DNC. But then you look at California, a state that prior to this slow down was considered mildly in play, and it is suddenly pure organic blue. It may be that in states with voters who have disliked all along the economics of the Bush administration, Obama wins out so strongly that he is able to rack up a pointlessly large majority among them on that issue, from that state, while only mildly touching the other sides base, but as the Economist pointed out recently, it’s not how many votes, but how many states, that you win. Frankly, I think it’s going to be a close race, and pointlessly large majorities in places like California will not make this a blow out (though it will make Obama more defensible) any more then Hoovers pointlessly large majority in New York made the 1930 election a close race.

Jun 12, 2008 - 11:36 pm 159. Jeremy Janson:

With all due respect Gary, no and you should question your arrogance. I am voting Republican this election because we NEED free trade, we NEED sensible taxation, we NEED low spending to rebalance our budget, and we NEED nuclear power, all things Obama would oppose. I hold my country quite high, which is exactly why I actually take time to think about what I say and support politically, something that many Americans, including I think you, obviously fail to do. Why in the hell would I put my party anywhere? And what makes you honestly think many do? What motivation would they have GARY! I select my party because I generally agree with it and think that you idiots don’t use your heads enough and are going to steer this country in to worst waters then it already is. Yeah, you can saythings are too terrible now to get worse; they said that in 2000 as well! You are obviously either lacking basic empathy or not thinking.

Jun 12, 2008 - 11:55 pm 160. schnargley:

I believe that there will be an historic landlslide for Barak Obama. Americans will gradually realize that we need a deep change from cynical Washington insiders to fresh, new, talent from elsewhere; from warmongering to peace-mongering; from xenophobic flagwaving ignorance to European international unilateralism; from greed-driven capitalism to a new compassionate experiment in socialism; from selfish stingy desires to keep what you earn to a much-needed program to seize rich people’s money and goods;wanting to from white-dominated society to equality and social justice; from an unrestrained market place to one that is dominated by the people for the people’s benefit; from limiting freedom of abortions as guaranteed in the Constitution, to unconstrained rights to limit human births by whatever means necessary; from antagonism to open-minded tolerance and friendliness with political leaders that might have different cultural narratives for their idea of human rights than ours.

Hopeful days are here again. I cannot remember any days more exciting than todays, except when the Weather Underground blew up the Pentagon.

Jun 13, 2008 - 12:13 am 161. roy:

Mr Moran, there are plenty of problems where 80% of the people agree there is a problem, they just don’t agree on the solution. I’m sure you could find that 80% of Americans think there are problems with the health care system and 80% agree that Social Security is going bankrupt and so on and so forth. What they don’t agree on is the solution to these problems. Some want to fix health care by going the socialized medicine route. Others want free market solutions. 80% of Americans may say the things are headed the wrong way but that in no way implies that they think the secular messiah Obamba has the answers. Obamba is ultra-liberal, has no experience except for running for office, his only credentials for being a uniter seem to be a sincere desire to bridge differences between the far left wing and the conventional left wing of his party. Oh, and he supported an ethics reform bill that passed, if not unanimously then near so. Something with that kind of support is not contentious or controversial. There are only two men in national politics who risked their standing in their own party to reach across the aisles on matters of conscience and they are John McCain and Joseph Leiberman.
Beyond all that, it is early days yet. At this point Dukaka held a double digit lead over old Bush. Gore and Kerry were both ahead. People are not paying attention yet and won’t really focus until this Fall. I predict that while many people are not overly enthusiastic about McCain, they won’t be able to bring themselves to drink the Obama Kool-aid. Look at how well the Hillary did in the April and May primaries. She was shrill and not terribly likeable but she cleaned his clock in state after state. He drew huge crowds, was the subject media adulation, and outspent her 2-3 to 1 but she kept winning the primaries. Also, notice in primary after primary, the people who made up their minds in the last 2-3 days before the primary went overwhelmingly for the Hilary. In state after state he polled well early on (remember the polls about how he was gaining ground in Ohio, Texas, Indiana, and so?) and lost in the end. Obamba has a 5-7 point edge now, will it hold up and be enough come election day? Hmm, I don’t think so.

Jun 13, 2008 - 1:24 am 162. MPRed:

I’ve been a Republican all my life. I just can’t vote for McCain unless he steps up to the plate more and honors our President. If he doesn’t talk more about how great our President is, I will have to sit this one out.

In the meantime, we should all talk about how great Bush is to our friends.

Jun 13, 2008 - 2:28 am 163. indy voter from va:

McCain has a Catch22 situation. He cannot win without attracting independents like myself, and every overture he makes makes you Conservative Repubs growl. A straight Repub would have zero chance this cycle, because people like me wouldn’t vote for a Mitt Romney. A Mitt Romney would lose this election (why don’t you get that?) So looks to me that if McCain loses, he will have you Conservatives to blame. Why do you keep cutting off your nose to spite your face? Do you WANT Obama to win?

Jun 13, 2008 - 4:19 am 164. Tyler:

I laugh when people say McCain will win PA over Obama. Now polls can be wrong but even after he lost the state he was up by about 6-9 points there. The thing is, in many states, including PA, there are hundreds of thousands of African-Americans who are unregistered to vote. The Obama campaign will likely register these voters through grassroots organization and that will add even more black votes to his column for the state. Also, if you look back to 2004, Kerry even won the state despite being called a flip-flopping liberal and didn’t even have to have many of those votes that Hillary got. He won just on the core base of the democratic party. I suspect Obama will do the same, whether it be by 1, 2, or 8 points.

Jun 13, 2008 - 4:30 am 165. Tyler:

If you all go over to Gallup.com they explain something important. Registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by a 9 point margin. So even if some Hillary voters move to McCain, because of this party advantage, it doesn’t matter. Also, McCain could win the independent vote, and some Hillary voters and lose.

Jun 13, 2008 - 4:35 am 166. Chester Starr:

Oddly enough Real Clear Politics average has Obama ahead of McCain by only 4.3 percentage points;not exactly an apocalypse.

Jun 13, 2008 - 4:38 am 167. American:

These biased, unrealistic opinion pieces amaze me. Up until recently since Obama has gotten his bump from winning the dem nomination, the race has been tied or McCain ahead, even with massive, messianic coverage of Obama. If you woke up from a coma last week you might not even know who the Republican candidate was.

Let’s see, a former POW war hero with national experience who wants to cut out earmarks and pork barrel spending or Barak Hussein Obama, the junior senator known for refusing to place his hand over his heart during the national anthem or wear the American flag lapel pin and who has a history of associating with anti-American racists.

Jun 13, 2008 - 4:42 am 168. Tyler:

I read some of the posts above where someone said Mitt Romney should be VP…he is the biggest flip-flopper there is. He created a universal health care system when he was governor, he was also pro-choice, and if I’m not wrong, pro-gay rights. He went from liberal GOP’er in a liberal state to big Conservative Romney who values his conservative (new found) values. If McCain doesn’t want to have a chance to win then he should pick Romney for sure.

Jun 13, 2008 - 4:47 am 169. Fresh Bilge » Bipartisan Trap:

[...] Rick Moran despairs of McCain’s chances, but he misses an obvious point at the start of his article, when he cites the polling that shows 4/5 dissatisfaction with the country’s direction. A lot of the dissatisfied are conservatives. They would still vote Republican — even after GWB — if McCain could connect with them. His heroic resume is not enough. [...]

Jun 13, 2008 - 4:48 am 170. Jon S.:

1. A few people above have brought up the Hispanic vote, citing the 34% voter ID for Dems over Repubs. But that Pew poll taken late last year did not do a McCain vs Obama head to head; the results will clearly be much different if you ask this, much more of an even split at worst and in my view probably a slight McCain lead. And the Pew poll also had this to say:

“Hispanics constitute a sizable share of the electorate in four of the six states that President Bush carried by margins of five percentage points or fewer in 2004 –New Mexico (where Hispanics make up 37% of state’s eligible electorate); Florida (14%); Nevada (12%) and Colorado (12%). All four are expected to be closely contested once again in 2008.”

Think about it: do you think FL Hispanics prefer Obama (D-Cuba) over McCain? And McCain captures 70% of the Hispanic vote in his home state, so it’s a good bet he’ll do quite well with them in the neighboring states of NM-NV-CO.

2. Party ID is quite different than party registration. When things look bad and the incumbent president is unpopular and at the end of his second term, party ID goes down, not necessarily party registration. In any event, there’s no question that many of those who no longer call themselves Republican are now independents, not Democrats, and many of these folks are tailor-made for McCain, the same kind of maverick many of them think they are.

Jun 13, 2008 - 5:46 am 171. Jim in Texas:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball

——————————————————————————–

CAN MCCAIN OVERCOME THE TRIPLE WHAMMY?

Electoral Barometer Shows Democratic Advantage

By Alan I. Abramowitz
Guest Columnist

May 29, 2008

With the long and contentious Democratic nomination race finally winding down, the attention of the media and the public is beginning to shift to the general election. In November, voters will face a choice between two rather atypical presidential candidates. For the first time in over fifty years, the party that controls the White House will not be represented by either the incumbent president or the incumbent vice-president.

Instead, the Republican Party, which has seen its popularity and electoral fortunes plummet since 2004, will pin its hopes on John McCain - an individual who has frequently clashed with his own party’s leadership. And McCain’s Democratic opponent will be Barack Obama, the first African-American ever to receive a major party presidential nomination.

The unusual characteristics of the two major party candidates have led to considerable uncertainty among political observers about the outlook for the November election. While President Bush’s low approval ratings and overwhelmingly negative perceptions of the economy suggest a very difficult political climate for Republicans, John McCain’s reputation as a maverick and Barack Obama’s problems uniting Democratic voters behind his candidacy have led some analysts to suggest that a Democratic victory in November is far from certain.

Polling data seem to support the conclusion that despite the unpopularity of his party, John McCain has a realistic chance of keeping the White House in Republican hands. McCain has been running neck-and-neck with Obama in most recent national polls. In the May 21st Gallup tracking poll, for example, Obama held a narrow 47 to 44 percent lead over McCain.

The problem with such early horserace polls, however, is that they are not very accurate predictors of the actual election results. Polls in the spring of 1988 showed Michael Dukakis with a comfortable lead over George H.W. Bush and polls in June of 1992 showed Bill Clinton running third behind both Bush and H. Ross Perot. So recent polls showing a close race between McCain and Obama may not tell us much about what to expect in November.

Instead of using early horserace polls, political scientists generally rely on measures of the national political climate to make their forecasts. That is because the national political climate can be measured long before the election and it has been found to exert a powerful influence on the eventual results.

Three indicators of the national political climate have accurately predicted the outcomes of presidential elections since the end of World War II: the incumbent president’s approval rating at mid-year, the growth rate of the economy during the second quarter of the election year, and the length of time the president’s party has held the White House.

The higher the president’s approval rating and the stronger the growth rate of the economy, the more likely it is that the president’s party will be victorious. However, if the president’s party has controlled the White House for two terms or longer it is less likely to be successful. Time-for-change sentiment seems to increase after eight years regardless of the president’s popularity or the state of the economy.

These three factors can be combined to produce an Electoral Barometer score that measures the overall national political climate. The formula for computing this score is simply the president’s net approval rating (approval minus disapproval) in the Gallup Poll plus five times the annual growth rate of real GDP minus 25 if the president’s party has held the White House for two terms or longer. Mathematically, this formula can be written as:

EB = NAR + (5*GDP) - 25.

In theory, the Electoral Barometer can range from -100 or lower to +100 or higher with a reading of zero indicating a neutral political climate. In practice, Electoral Barometer readings for the fifteen presidential elections since the end of World War II have ranged from -66 in 1980 to +82 in 1964. A positive Electoral Barometer reading generally predicts victory for the incumbent party while a negative reading generally predicts defeat.

——————————————————————————–

Table 1. Electoral Barometer Readings and Election Results since World War II

Barometer Reading Year Election Result Popular Vote Margin
82.5 1964 Won 22.6%
73.0 1972 Won 23.2%
71.0 1956 Won 15.4%
51.5 1984 Won 18.2%
43.5 1996 Won 8.5%
22.0 2000 Won* 0.5%
13.0 2004 Won 2.5%
9.0 1988 Won 7.7%
4.5 1948 Won 4.5%
2.0 1968 Lost -0.7%
-5.0 1960 Lost -0.2%
-5.0 1976 Lost -2.1%
-22.5 1992 Lost -5.6%
-49.5 1952 Lost -10.9%
-66.0 1980 Lost -9.7%

Source: Data compiled by author.

——————————————————————————–

The Electoral Barometer has predicted the winner of the popular vote in 14 of the 15 presidential elections since World War II. There were five elections in which the Electoral Barometer was negative and the president’s party lost the popular vote in all five of these elections: 1952, 1960, 1976, 1980, and 1992. There were ten elections in which the Electoral Barometer was positive, and the president’s party won the popular vote in nine of these elections: 1948, 1956, 1964, 1972, 1984, 1988, 1996, 2000, and 2004.

The only election in which the Electoral Barometer did not accurately predict the winner of the popular vote was 1968. In that year the Electoral Barometer was barely positive at +2 and the candidate of the incumbent party, Hubert Humphrey, lost the popular vote by less than one percentage point.

The information required to calculate the final Electoral Barometer score for 2008 will not be available until August when the federal government releases its estimate of real GDP growth during the second quarter of 2008. However, it appears very likely that the Republican Party is dealing with the dreaded “triple whammy” in 2008: an unpopular president, a weak economy, and a second term election. Based on President Bush’s net approval rating in the most recent Gallup Poll (-39), the annual growth rate of the economy during the first quarter of 2008 (+0.6 percent), and the fact that the Republican Party has controlled the White House for the past eight years, the current Electoral Barometer reading is a dismal -63.

An Electoral Barometer reading of -63 would predict a decisive defeat for the Republican presidential candidate. The only election since World War II with a score in this range was 1980. In that election Jimmy Carter suffered the worst defeat for an incumbent president since Herbert Hoover in 1932. The second lowest score, -50, occurred in 1952. That was the last election in which neither the incumbent president, Democrat Harry Truman, nor the incumbent vice-president appeared on the ballot. Nevertheless, the candidate trying to succeed Truman, Democrat Adlai Stevenson, lost in a landslide.

The current national political climate is one of the worst for the party in power since the end of World War II. No candidate running in such an unfavorable political environment – Republican or Democrat - has ever been successful. If John McCain manages to overcome the triple whammy of an unpopular president, a weak economy, and a second term election, it will be an upset of unprecedented magnitude.

Dr. Alan Abramowitz is the Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory University, and the author of Voice of the People: Elections and Voting Behavior in the United States (2004, McGraw-Hill). He can be contacted via email at polsaa@emory.edu.

Jun 13, 2008 - 6:02 am 172. JOHN SPENCE:

Obama is the candidate of big money. He is being paid, in particular by the hedge funds, as they support his policy to limit oil exploration. This reduces supply and enables them to profit from speculation. Is it any wonder Soros and friends are funding Obama. It’s money they have stolen from the Ameerican people.

McCain just needs to move his position on opposition to further exploration and he wins. -simple.

Jun 13, 2008 - 7:52 am 173. Robert:

McCain has a whole host of issues on top of the public’s mentality towards the Republican Party. His campaign managers and political strategists are failing. He can’t deliver a speech. His look is not appealing. The negative stigma handed down to him by Bush destroys his image.

http://www.palapolitical.com

If McCain wants to gain points on Obama, he has to start speaking with more strength behind his tone. He has to continue to point out the matters he’s voted against Republicans on. He needs to pick a VP that represents centered-politics.

Jun 13, 2008 - 8:10 am 174. John Samford:

“The Hispanic vote is going to be critical and Big Mac does very well there”

Sorry to impose actual facts on you, but by ALL accounts, Obama is leading McCain among hispanics by 33-34 points. The 2 most recent polls have Obama up 62-29 and 62-28.”

Evidence please!
http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4328

Exit polls show a strong distaste among Hispanics for Ohhhh…..BAMA. An exit poll is considered to have a greater validity, since the voter has actually voted and it’s all still fresh in their mind. Some lie, of course (response bias), but that is true of RV’s and LV’s also. Some of who won’t vote.
Remember polls are about making money for the pollster. So Keeping the overhead down thru sample size and calling area is important to the pollster’s bottom line. So when you have a sample size of 300 a liar skews the results more then a sample size of 3,000.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_poll

I can produce polls showing the opposite;
http://www.imdiversity.com/Villages/Hispanic/politics_law/nam_mccain_0108.asp

I think you are referring to a Gallop poll. Gallop is a wholly owned subsidiary (joke!) of the Democratic party. IIRC, they were the ones that predicted a Kerry victory the evening of the last election. A prediction that CNN picked up and ran with, much to their regret. Or was that Gore? Nevermind, when you pay a pollster to deliver the results you want, don’t be shocked when those results are wrong.
Pew, which had the poll showing Big Mac with good support among Hispanics, is as much in the tank with Republicans as Gallop is with the Dems.
This is all my opinion, of course ( legal disclaimer), based on the polls by these business tending to be wrong yet skewed in the direction of the people paying them (what Republicans call ‘customers’).
AFAIK, there is NO regulation of the polling industry. Anyone with a TI-89 and a land line can set up in the polling business. If I was a hot looking blond and wanted to make millions from a standing position, I would start my own polling firm and try to become the expert for one of the MSM outlets. Of course, that might require a little horizontal functionality to get ones ‘foot’ in the door.
It would be nice to see the polling industry regulated, at least as much as the accounting industry is. I doubt that it will happen, since politicians see polls as tools to manipulate public opinion, So they won’t do anything to remove that tool from their box.

So you don’t have facts, you have polls. polls are opinions. They remain opinions, no matter how many of them there are or how long they are held.
Facts are made of actions. Not words. In November there will be a time for action, which will create a fact. All we have to do is wait and we will see who’s opinion was correct.
Right or wrong, it’s still an opinion. That is why they are called opinion polls. The powers that be want you to see they as facts. DON’T.
Practice ‘change’, see them as opinion.

Jun 13, 2008 - 11:35 am 175. Fat Man:

“The polls don’t reflect the fact that McCain is facing a landslide loss of historic proportions.”

Your fevered imagination does not constitute facts. My advice to you is to go to a doctor. They have medicines for your problems.

Jun 13, 2008 - 11:50 am 176. Tom K:

I Love how the left engages in self delusion, by thinking t

Jun 13, 2008 - 5:20 pm 177. Jim in Texas:

Bigben: your pseudo list of pseudo reasons betrays how weak your argument is. Iran is a reason to vote for McCain? Bomb bomb bomb bomb bomb Iran! That’s sure to be a very popular position this year. Inarticulate away from the teleprompter? Unless your I.Q. is below George Bush’s (a distinct possibility) you must know McCain will always look pale and weak next to Obama. And changing the order of the names doesn’t count as another reason. In fact, since it won’t have any effect, it doesn’t even count as one reason. People are going to vote their pocketbooks. The guy who says; “here’s a big load of ‘more of the same” isn’t going to get elected. Backlash against the MSM and Hollywood? Please. Now I know you’re delusional. Wake up Ben, you’re being manipulated by crooks who’ve used their positions to enrich themselves at our expense. Time to face the fact that you’ve been CONNED.

Jun 13, 2008 - 5:25 pm 178. Tom K:

I Love how the left engages in self delusion, by thinking that senator Obama is some gods gift to humanity. they seriously think that the senator has this election wrapped up. It shows me how out of touch they are with the common american. As of now obama is a proped up canidate, being supported by the hard left and in large part by the media. Obamas worst enemy is time, as time moves on his support will begin to crumble and independent voters will move away from him in droves. obama needs the election to be tomorrow. If you believe in polls Democrats have a huge advantage over Republicans and the Presidents approval rates are shameful. Senator Obama only has a 5 point advantage over McCain… translation…Obama is behind, a democrat presidential canidate have only a 5 point lead over the Republican canidate is in actuality losing, when time is your enemy your in big trouble.

Jun 13, 2008 - 5:38 pm 179. Jim in Texas:

John McCain will lose because:
Bush’s approval rating is at or below 30%.
The economy is in or near recession.
The Republicans are the most corrupt party in our history.
The American people overwhelmingly agree with Democrats on the issues.
The war for oil has been a disaster.
You fools who voted for Bush twice have already demonstrated how bad your judgement is, why would anyone take your advise now?

Jun 13, 2008 - 9:22 pm 180. taba:

“Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?”

Approve 88%

Disapprove 7%

Unsure 5%

11/9-11/01

http://www.pollingreport.com/BushJob1.htm

Jun 13, 2008 - 9:58 pm 181. John Samford:

Do you WANT Obama to win?

Actually there is a segment of the Republican Party that does.
There are a lot of clueless people that think the economy is bad. With President Obama they will find out up close and personal what a bad economy is.
There are a lot of clueless people that think anthropogenic global warming is a greater danger then Islamic terrorists with atomic bombs. With a President Obama, who has nice hair, there will be no fear of retribution held by those terrorists, if there is now ( a debatable point, since it is hard to imagine a death treat deterring a suicide bomber) which makes New York getting nuked inevitable. Seeing 8 million American die in a day will make anthropogenic global warming just a good reason to stock up on sun block.
So the theory is that 4 years of President Obama will pretty much put and end to Socialism in America. Young people don’t know how good they have it because they have no bad to compare it with. President Obama will introduce them to misery on a scale they can’t imagine. That is why those of us that survived Jimmy ‘peanut’ Carter are overwhelmingly against Ohhhh…..BAMA. Been there, done that.

Jun 14, 2008 - 12:14 pm 182. Thomas Jackson:

You mean McCain isn’t a Clintonista?

Could have fooled me.

But Snobama is a Marxist. I will vote third party. Even Elmer Fudd has more on the ball than these two cretins.

Jun 14, 2008 - 3:31 pm 183. Rod Patrick:

Given the above information provided by your reader, I guess McCain a small chance to win if Obama campaign fails to disprove the following:

1. Obama’s was a protege of Chicago New Party.
2. Obama is a communist and a Marxist.
3. Obama does have 100% of all the communists and socialists in the USA.
4. Obama is not a believer and an enemy of Democratic Capitalism.
5. Obama is not a regular guy from Hyde Park.

To start with, may be a speech against communism will do. Hope!

Jun 15, 2008 - 2:28 am 184. Rod Patrick:

McCain will win if Obama doesn’t respond quickly on the following allegations:

1. That Obama is a Communist based on his historical affiliation and work in Chicago Hyde Park.
2. That 100% of all the communists within Democratic Party are rallying behind Obama. This is according to Bill Clinton which caused Hillary’s downfall. Can he denounce communism?
3. That he supported the founding of AAAN with Khalidi. His response to Khalidi question by a Jew recently is too trite and too evading.

Jun 15, 2008 - 2:40 am 185. dan McClelland:

there is 1 common thing i see in all these post
if u can throw out the bugerman and r able 2 sleep
without the light on at night u dont need the gop anymore

Jun 19, 2008 - 4:29 pm

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