Upper Midwest Politics — As Blue as the Great Lakes
McCain may think he has a shot — but Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin remain solidly Democratic territory.
This map presents a telling breakdown of our country’s voting patterns from the previous General Election. Not only does it discount simplistic “Red State/Blue State” rhetoric, but clearly proves America’s divides are between cities, their suburbs and college towns, versus the rest of (rural) America. Democrats hold the former, while the GOP grabs the latter. And not too much should change this fall.
But see the north-central portion of the USA.
While it’s normal to see blue around cities, the northern tips of very rural Minnesota and Wisconsin are blue (Democrat). There really are no other states like that. Why is this the case? A few weeks back, my fiancée and I drove up from Indiana to learn more.
Politically, the Midwest, with the exception of Ohio and Indiana, was the only non-coastal U.S. region to support Sen. Kerry in 2004. In 1992 and 1996, the Hoosier State was the sole state in this region not to vote for President Clinton.
Prior to this sojourn, I had visited every region east of the Mississippi, except these hinterlands. And though they are gorgeous locales, they’re only navigable about three months per year; or more specifically, as a local septuagenarian food stand owner in Duluth put it, “during the halcyon days” between June and August. (This mid-July night, lows actually moved into the upper 40s.)
Minnesota
After an 11 hour ride up from Central Indiana, we spent Saturday night in Saint Cloud, an hour northwest of Minneapolis. Sunday morning, I glanced at a story celebrating a local National Guard engineering unit returning after serving in Iraq. We then began our trek moving north through other surprisingly conservative Minnesota towns along the Mississippi-like Little Falls. The central part of the “Land of 10,000 Lakes” is the largest right-leaning area in this left-leaning state. Catholic churches, war memorials, and American Legion posts are are found in these clean little towns throughout the region.
Farther north at the headwaters of the Mississippi River near Bemidji, we found large families with pick-up trucks and National Guard shirts enjoying the 75 degree weather and history of the area. Moving east across Northern Minnesota toward the Wisconsin border though, the folks’ politics take a hard left. At the picturesque Duluth harbor along Lake Superior’s western edge, anti-Bush stickers were affixed to many cars with clever slogans like “Bush ran from Vietnam; Bush ran from 9-11. Run, coward, run.” “The politics and people of Duluth mirror most mid-size Minnesota cities more accurately than Little Falls,” I was told by a local fisherman.
Minnesotans have a long history of socialism from their ancestry in liberal Scandinavian nations, who pride themselves on secular populism and “communal efforts.” The Minnesota Farmer Labor Party is well-known, and Minnesota last voted for a Republican presidential candidate during the 49-1 Nixon rout of McGovern 36 years ago. Minnesotans have since voted for Walter Mondale in 1984 (a Native Son, but still the only state he won) and Jimmy Carter twice. They also elected a former wrestler their governor.
This November, former comedian and failed talk show host Al Franken is running for Senate on the Democratic-Farm Labor Party ticket. However, though Minnesota is very liberal, John F. Kerry only won here by four percentage points in 2004. The state has a popular Republican governor in Tim Pawlenty, who many feel is on the so-called “short list” to be McCain’s running mate. Those connections to Finland, Sweden, Norway, and Denmark are now 4th and 5th generation, thus fading. And though blonde people and past voting patterns make Minnesota seem homogeneous, their priorities and political beliefs often vary.
At the Duluth harbor on a splendid July evening, this was evident. I spoke with “Gretchen” and “Mark,” a recently married late 20s couple with a baby on the way. They support McCain. “We’re neither military nor religious, but also don’t feel comfortable with Obama,” Mark noted, while munching on a cheese curd, popular up here, but rather repulsive tasting to our uncultured Hoosier tongues. As Maria and I shared buffalo wings, Gretchen, whose first election was 2004, added that she was “uncomfortable changing horses in the middle of a stream.” Knowingly or not, she borrowed this from the famous 1864 election, when President Lincoln supporters stated such words during pivotal days of the Civil War.
On the other hand, Ruth, who with her four boys runs “Crazy Bills Cheese Curds,” is for Obama. Being 76, she has voted for Democrats going back to Adlai Stevenson. And despite Obama’s youth, she is not changing. “We don’t vote for Republicans, no matter what. Just not gonna happen, and I’m too old to go changing.”
The election of 2008 won’t be typical anywhere, as recent polls in Minnesota actually show a dead heat. But in the end, with its most urban district headed by Keith Ellison, a Muslim who is also a member of the Farm Labor Party and an Obama supporter, Minnesota seems a safe blue state, despite myriad VFW posts and military families in some areas. The state is a typical mix between urban and rural, but Minnesota’s river towns along the Iowa border and cities like Duluth will keep the state blue.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin, on the surface, seems similar enough to Minnesota. Both veteran senators (Russ Feingold and Herb Kohl) are strong Democrats, especially Feingold, one of the most liberal members of the Senate and a fierce critic of the Patriot Act since 2001. Despite having teamed with Sen. McCain on the controversial McCain-Feingold Campaign Finance Reform Act years ago, Feingold is an Obama supporter.
Page 1 of 2 Next ->
Ari Kaufman resides in Indianapolis where he is a military historian and an Associate Fellow at the Sagamore Institute. A former Los Angeles schoolteacher, he is the author of Reclamation: Saving our schools starts from within.
 |
 |
 |
Podcasts |  PJM Home |
Pajamas Media appreciates your comments that abide by the following guidelines:
1. Avoid profanities or foul language unless it is contained in a necessary quote or is relevant to the comment.
2. Stay on topic.
3. Disagree, but avoid ad hominem attacks.
4. Threats are treated seriously and reported to law enforcement.
5. Spam and advertising are not permitted in the comments area.
The clause regarding "hate speech" has been deleted because readers criticized it as being too loosely defined. We agreed.
These guidelines are very general and cannot cover every possible situation. Please don't assume that Pajamas Media management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment. We reserve the right to filter or delete comments or to deny posting privileges entirely at our discretion. If you feel your comment was filtered inappropriately, please email us at story@pajamasmedia.com.
55 Comments
1. Bernard Chapin:“Bush ran from 9-11″–tell that to Mullah Omar, lol. Only a leftist diehard could come up with that. More solid boots on the ground stuff, Ari, but I fear McCain could only get Indiana from this region. Perhaps my vote could prevent BaRackStar from getting a 25 point victory.
Jul 28, 2008 - 3:50 am 2. Cal:Yeah, even the most lunatic hater of the president is going to have a hard time backing up that he has not had the full court press on terrorists the past seven years. Criticise our leader all you want, but he’s also been al-Qaeda’s worst nightmare since 9/11. This is why our enemies are praying that Obama wins.
Always fun to read the regional breakdowns of states. Good article. Really lays out the facts, though I’m glad you admit it’ll be close. These three states are all “in play” which is unusual. Perhaps it’s that the Democrats have chosen a radical or that the GOP has chosen a Centrist. Either way, should be interesting.
Jul 28, 2008 - 5:20 am 3. KansasGirl:I can’t comprehend some peoples’ hatred for Bush. It must be miserable to wake up day after day with such hate.
Jul 28, 2008 - 5:31 am 4. Cal:“I can’t comprehend some peoples’ hatred for Bush. It must be miserable to wake up day after day with such hate.”
The most irksome part of the scenario/hatred is that the majority of folks who hate Bush the most are the wealthiest, most sheltered Americans—who enjoy the best lives and are affected least (positively mostly) by his policies. Yes, it’s sad, psychological, etc. And they have no explanation, just cliches. Look at what they’ve done to McCain, who, for better or worse, is nothing like Bush.
Yep, hatred when you arise to the best nation on earth and a wonderful life. I wonder how the army moms, mostly conservative Bush supporters, feel about the views of the Gylehaals, Sarandons and Sheryl Crows of the country?
Jul 28, 2008 - 5:35 am 5. Getreal:While I disagree that there were any “facts” in this analysis, the writer’s conclusions will end up being correct. As a Michigander I understand that the state is dramatically geographically divided between red and blue areas. However the race will not be close. The last governor race was supposed to be close as well yet it ended up in a democratic landslide. KansasGirl if you could wrap your head around the idea that GW Bush has done more to cause our country to lose power and influence than anyone or thing since the Civil War you would understand why people hate the president. Cal you are not very intelligent if you can’t see that rich celebrities have the access to spout their anti-bush views to the media. There are tons more lower and middle class, regular people who despise bush but aren’t interviewed in the media constantly. If your ridiculous “only the most wealthy” comment was close to being correct than the 70% who say Bush is doing a terrible job must be likely to be rich and our economy must be doing great.
Jul 28, 2008 - 6:21 am 6. Colin:If by chance Minnesota goes to McCain it will be in large measure the results of the efforts of the new wave of volunteers activated by the Paul campaign.
Jul 28, 2008 - 6:23 am 7. Cap'n Rusty:Garrison Keilor, before he abandoned entertainment for politics, told stories on “A Prairie Home Companion” that illustrated the Minnesotan character. We’re “nice,” and we’re patient and although we don’t want to brag about it, we’re kind of modest. Obama’s antics on foreign stages arean’t going over too well out here.
Underneath our mild demeanor, however, there lurks a streak of rugged individualism (consider our winters. We like plain-speaking mavericks. Thus, Jesse Ventura won against slick and rich opponents. And he didn’t have an organization to speak of.
Jul 28, 2008 - 6:34 am 8. Beagle8u:You have much of it right on Michigan, but you may have overlooked a few things.
The Yoopers do tend to vote for the RATS but the reason is that most of them go on welfare in the winter months.
With the price of gas, tourism is in the toilet, heating fuel prices will hit about election time, and the Yoopers aren’t very happy about the RATS ideas on oil drilling.
The unions have lost a ton of members in the past 4 years and the UAW workers vote is almost evenly split R/D. Gun control is the #1 reason for that split. Michigan is a gun state!
Detroit has also lost a ton of population.
IMO Michigan is an “even money” bet for 2008 but I give McCain a slight edge because of the gun issue.
You also must factor in the Bradly effect. I don’t think you can compare numbers for any prior RAT pol to Obama.
BTW, That heating fuel issue is going to hit hard in all the GL states!
Jul 28, 2008 - 6:53 am 9. DMS:“If by chance Minnesota goes to McCain it will be in large measure the results of the efforts of the new wave of volunteers activated by the Paul campaign.”
Ron Paul? Aren’t most of his supporters moving toward Bob Barr, and thus, giving the “hope” and “change” socialist a chance to take over and ruin our country?
As to the guy who wrote:
“Obama’s antics on foreign stages arean’t going over too well out here.”
Exactly. In LA, SF, NYC, DC, Boston etc, these play well—-McCain does not need those locales. In the heartland, small towns and most of America, he looks plain arrogant…and has for quite some time.
Jul 28, 2008 - 7:42 am 10. Bernard Chapin:Boy, I hope you’re right about Michigan. It’s sad to say that my old state (MI) and new one (IL) are becoming locks for the party of socialism, er, I mean the Democrats.
Jul 28, 2008 - 7:42 am 11. Jarhead:But the big unions and big government Democrats have brought so much prosperity and economic development to Michigan.
Jul 28, 2008 - 8:20 am 12. Big My:A nice drive through tour of the upper midwest–nice to have an independent person give us an “on the ground” feel for the area. I suspect there is more to be said about the Scandinavian roots and harsh life of 19th and earlyy 20th century Minnesota that accounts for the Farmer-labor Party–this could also be the reason the progressives did so well in Wisconsin in the earlyt 20th century with Senator LaFollette.
Jul 28, 2008 - 8:40 am 13. David:I just don’t get how people think of McCain as third term for Bush. McCain is far less conservative than Bush and overall a different man with different ideas. But hey, I never said liberals made any sense. And the comment about Bush running from 9-11 is a joke. Bush took on 9-11 and as a result there has not been another terrorist attack on American soil since. Obama on the other hand, would have ran from 9-11 like a certain Kenyan Muslim ran from his wife and child.
Jul 28, 2008 - 9:31 am 14. Phil Magness:Thanks for the independent, non-partison review. I live in the area, and agree that it seems Michigan will be the closer state this time around – but also doubt it will tip red. I think the only McCain could swing Michigan would be to put Romney on the ticket and then have Romney campaign in the area for most of the campaign (with a few side trips to Nevada & Colorado). If that happens, McCain may be able to pull out an ‘Engler’ and win by a hair as an economic conservative.
“GetReal” needs to get real, though. The claim that “GW Bush has done more to cause our country to lose power and influence than anyone or thing since the Civil War” is beyond silly. In the first case, American influence has waned in some areas to be sure (Russia, the Mediterranean, parts of Latin America), but it is increased in other areas, such as India, Africa, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia. And with conservatives replacing liberals in Germany, France, and Italy in recent elections, and with the Conservatives ascending in England, I really find GetReal’s assertion to be quite comical. In the second place, any student of history can point to several presidents who diminished our influence around the world far more than even Bush’s detractors in the media would claim for him. (Carter, Hoover, Harrison, and Taft come to mind).
On a more serious note, I think GetReal needs to wrap HIS mind around what people actually say. Here are two examples: He cals GetReal “not very intelligent” for supposedly claiming that “‘only the most wealthy’” hate Bush, when Cal ACTUALY wrote that “that the majority of folks who hate Bush the most are the wealthiest, most sheltered Americans—who enjoy the best lives and are affected least (positively mostly) by his policies.” Note the shift from “the majority of folks” (a fact born out by polling demographics) to “only the most”. The other example comes straight from polling. Yes, the Presidents APPROVAL ratings are in the low 30’s. But that doesn’t mean that 70% think he is doing a “terrible job” as “Get Real” suggests. Many of those who disapprove of his performance think he is doing a poor job, but not a terrible one. Others in that group post “no opinion” or “neither approve nor disapprove”. These numbers have been consistent for about a year now.
And let us not forget that many of those who disapprove of the President’s job performance do so because they critique him from the RIGHT, not the LEFT. They fault him for not being an articulate champion-advocate of conservative policies, for signing off on congressional overspending, or for taking too long to fire generals and change course so that we can WIN the war, not retreat from it.
Hate does prevent the mind from thinking clearly.
Jul 28, 2008 - 9:41 am 15. PDK:Mr. Kaufman writes well, but he is not bipartisan. I’ve been amused to read thru other comments to his article. Please consider this: It is NOT the job of commanders in the field to set U.S. policy, that is reserved for the President, the Commander-In-Chief. Thus, to think that POTUS, whomever he or she may be should be beholden to the Generals is to forget how American Government is meant to function. As for me personally, in recent days Mr. McCain continues to reveal himself as being confused about many factual items. I greatly respect his military service and his suffering during the Vietnam experience. I will not be voting for him.
Jul 28, 2008 - 9:51 am 16. Lefty (not politically):Phil, thanks for taking down “Get Real.” I doubt we’ll see him reply as you countered all of his points to the exact word, stat, view, etc. Bush has tried to be a Uniter, but despite what the media says, most Americans are NOT in the middle; they lean left or right. That is natural.
As for your history lesson, you hold liberals to a standard they cannot attain. Most Harvard grads don’t know ONE thing about Harrison, Hoover or Taft. There is no time to learn this when Muslim Studies and Post Colonial Sexism Studies is being taught in the same semester by some lady who lives with three men and six cats. (They do know Jimmy Carter is a “man of peace” though)
In the end, the most dangerous Americans lie in our universities and the media.
Get Real only parrots their points about “third terms” and “Bush is hated,” etc. S/he has few thoughts of his/her won and none are coherent.
Facts are anathema to lefties when they’re full of emotion, hatred or trying to sound cool and tolerant.
Jul 28, 2008 - 9:59 am 17. Dils:I cannot see McCain winning Michigan or Wisconsin. Maybe Minnesota, especially if he picks Pawlenty. Assuming he holds these states, Obama still needs to win Ohio and Pennsylvania, the latter of which may not be as much a slam dunk as people think.
Jul 28, 2008 - 10:16 am 18. Cheri:Excellent and thorough analysis. What a research effort, and it shows. I am continually amazed by bullet voters — those who cling stubbornly to a single issue or philosophy (”I’ll never vote for a Republican”), common sense and their own best interest be hanged. I so many Democrats who are philosophically Republicans. But old habits die hard — or never.
Jul 28, 2008 - 10:30 am 19. Jeff:“As for me personally, in recent days Mr. McCain continues to reveal himself as being confused about many factual items.”
I suggest this guy check out these sites and articles dedicated to Obama’s misstatements. How can one ignore the incredibly telling and dangerous gaffes made by the naive Sen. Obama, here and abroad. (Just because Hardball ignores it does not mean it does not exist)
http://obamasgaffes.blogspot.com/
http://online.wsj.com/article_print/SB121210923476431299.html
http://www.townhall.com/Columnists/MichelleMalkin/2008/05/21/barack_obama_gaffe_machine
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=26630
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2008/05/john_fund_on_the_obama_gaffe_m.html
As to this article’s objectivity, though a persual of Kaufman’s other articles shows him to be right-leaning perhaps, this article is 100% bi-partisan. After all, he’s giving these three states — all VERY close that could break either way — to Obama. Can you imagine Maureen Dowd or some liberal being so generous to McCain in states he’s likely to win such as Iowa, Missouri, Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire, Colorado or Virginia? No way.
Jul 28, 2008 - 10:35 am 20. California Mike:Overall, a very pleasurable article to read. As Jeff points out, this article is definately bi-partisan. If this were a partisan tyrade by Kaufmann, than why would he be conceding “the hinterlands” (very creative word choice… I had to look it up) to the democrats?
Although it is clear which side of the political isle Kaufman leans towards, it’s also clear that he has done his homework and, in my opinion, provided excellent reasoning (with links and objective facts) to back up his statements.
Jul 28, 2008 - 11:12 am 21. Maria:Interesting analysis. I always assummed the “Northern” states would always vote a straight democrat ticket. I guess if you actually go out of your way to see what people really think, you realize that not everyone is united in the hate for our president or the belief that Obama is the second coming of Christ. At a time when our political and social voice seems to be dominated by the left-leaning media and academia, who would have us believe the democratic agenda is the only “correct” and “good” way to go, it is refreshing to know that they do not speak for us all. I just hope more Americans would turn off CNN and put down their copy of the New York Times long enough to realize that.
Jul 28, 2008 - 11:27 am 22. ecke gal:live in San Diego’s east county, which voted for Bush in 2004. I’d say it’s looking similarly this year, just as Orange County is to the north. That said, no one’s going to be foolish enough to predict McCain will win CA, so I find it equally interesting that the Obama campaign (and the media) believe strong GOP states like North Dakota, Montana and Virginia are in play. That is akin to McCain saying he can take CA, NY or Maryland. He cannot use such a weak analogy. Just because Obama can get 5-10,000 to attend a speech in Boise or Billings, or because he beat Hillary there, does not mean he can win the state. The big sky and Plains is reliably Republican.
After reading this piece, it’s interesting to note that most of the “swing” states are ones that Kerry won in 2004: Mich, Minne, Wisc, PA etc. I don’t understand where Obama is going to pick up the necessary 3-5 states to get 270 electoral votes—-unless he takes Ohio or Florida, which I doubt he will.
Very smooth, objective article
Jul 28, 2008 - 11:57 am 23. Greg:As usual a good read: good distinction between cities and rural areas vs heartland and liberal coasts. That’s one of many reasons the antiquated electoral college should abolished so individual votes would count more.
Jul 28, 2008 - 1:46 pm 24. Pay Leahy:Very good artice. I wonder how many writers from the NY & LA Times go out and visit any part of the country west of the Hudson or east of Palm Springs.
Jul 28, 2008 - 1:57 pm 25. Uri Schwartz:A well written and enjoyable sojourn into the “hinterlands” as Mr. Kaufman so eloquently puts it. Kaufman’s article succeeds in showing how the cultural history of the these northern states intertwines with its political ideologies. Such a connection is a necessary facet in understanding Kaufman’s conclusion that Obama will keep the aforementioned states “as blue as the splendid Great Lakes,” even if the previously “blind support” for the democratic ticket in this northern region has begun to taper off.
Ultimately, Kaufman has written an objective, highly informative, and highly entertaining piece, which transcends the political theme that it introduces. One can learn as much about the rich cultural history of the hinterlands as they can about the history of its ideological tendencies, and that is what makes this piece, and Kaufman as a writer, so effective.
Jul 28, 2008 - 2:07 pm 26. Emily:Sounds like it was an interesting, non-scientific ramble. What fascinates me is that in spite of big love for Obama from the press, he’s not further ahead of McCain in the polls. This makes Fall all the more enticing, when we get to see how debates, which bring the candidates together, will impact impressions…and a final decision.
Jul 28, 2008 - 2:29 pm 27. Juan Riccardi:Very valid points. I think most voters for this election have made-up their minds about their candidate. The special circumstances of this election in particular, is that never have the political parties been so devided. You have a very republican and a very democrat president running.
For most that have the slightest inclination for one party, will end-up voting for that party’s candidate.
Jul 28, 2008 - 2:50 pm 28. Home-For-Sale Dave:Michigan demographics have changed for the worst. Mr. Engler could not be elected in present day Michigan.
The state is infested with welfare bums, con-men and thieves, while hundreds of thousands of productive, working citizens have left. The attorneys around here specialize in finding crooked quacks who will affirim injuries, either mental or physical, so citizen-bums can collect SS disability or workmen’s comp. On my road, only me and another person work in the private sector. Everyone else is on welfare, collecting SS, on disability or living on a state pension – all demographics for democrat votes.
A recent school bond issue had fat welfare mommas and their drunk boyfriends, who don’t own property, pouring into the voting booths to raise taxes on property owners. Granted, this is all anecdotal, but I’m confident this demographic, or something very similar, is repeated throughout most of the state.
And remember that Granholm had a 43% approval before the ‘06 election and won with 57% of the vote.
The demographers will soon confirm Michigan’s status as a leftist welfare hellhole. The state is deep socialist red so Mr. McCain should not waste a penny or minute here. Better to go after Wisconsin if he wants an Upper Midwest state. I think he has a shot there.
Besides, as usual, Detroit will wait until all the precincts are counted and then manufacture all the votes needed to give nobama the win. Of course our RINO state attorney general will do nothing about the voter fraud.
Jul 28, 2008 - 4:27 pm 29. Thomas:Once again, Mr. Kaufman offers a solid analysis of the political landscape in “fly-over country.” Although my views are slightly more optimistic than his, one cannot fault the honesty he brings to this report.
Jul 28, 2008 - 5:21 pm 30. v for victory:This analysis of Minnesota is incredibly shallow. Ari Kaufman drives through and talks to some old lady in Duluth and he has Minnesota pegged? It is ludicrous.
His political insight is from bumper stickers in Bemidji?
As Norway goes, so goes Minnesota?
To call this column sickening would be an insult to syrup of ipecac.
Sorry, Ari Kaufman. Back to the drawing board. Try again.
Jul 28, 2008 - 6:49 pm 31. RCD:Good stuff, Ari. The Northern states of this country are awfully tough for conservatives to win…I think the cold might freeze the logical portion of the brain.
Jul 28, 2008 - 7:18 pm 32. Rhett James:Kaufman’s reference regarding the influence of conservative voters of Dutch origin in Western Michigan prompt this comment. Apparently, their Dutch cousins, many of whom live in Friesland, a Dutch Province, are going bonkers over a story emanating from research done on Obama’s ancestors. According to “sources”, Obama’s African father was a one-time resident of South Africa, spoke Afrikaans, and has Frisian roots. Therefore, one does not pronounce his last name as O-BAH-ma, but OH-bah-ma like all the other “mahs,” “strahs,” and “gahs, as in the common Frisian names Hoeksema, Dykstra, or Huizinga (as in Wayne!)” Incidentally, House respresentative Pete Hoekstra, a staunch Republican, comes from the Western Michigan area (Grand Rapids/Holland) Should we worry?
Jul 28, 2008 - 7:43 pm 33. cj santino:Probably not! But, just think – a tall, thick-headed, stubborn, Frisian in the Whitehouse as a resu lt of a “swing” in Western Michigan. The residents of the Dutch Province of Groningen (which abuts Friesland), have this running battle with their Frisian neighbors to the west. They appear to be unimpressed with OH-bah-mah and apparently are hoping McCain will be the new POTUS. Stay tuned. This could get interesting.
aren’t there any purple states out there?
Jul 28, 2008 - 10:32 pm 34. Ray:Great piece Ari. I can definitely relate to the portions about the political views of many of the union workers. It seems that no matter how radical or extreme the Democratic nominee is, they will never vote Republican.
Jul 29, 2008 - 5:01 am 35. Blossom:Each time I read one of Mr. Kaufman’s articles I find myself wishing our politicians had even a small portion of his insight. Of course most of them would never spend the time driving through these areas or talking to real people. It reminds me of Hillary running for NY Senator and not even knowing that some of the cities of which she spoke are in Pennsylvania. The politicians spend time going where the big money donors are and appeasing the lobbyists.
Jul 29, 2008 - 9:09 am 36. obe:So again, Mr.Kaufman, thanks for giving many of us the real picture of some of these places which we may not have the opportunity or ability to visit.
Here in MN, it is all going to come down to voter turnout in the twin cites area. The ‘burbs are ever more conservative (they will vote), and the urban areas and their professional victims are prepping themselves for Obama to turn water to wine (yes MY congressman is Mr. Ellison, I’m just so proud). The key deomgraphic in my mind is the women (how much for your weeemen). They will continue to tell themselves that the right to abortion is their #1 issue and is worth selling their souls to socialism because the eeeeevil Republicans are gnashing their teeth to strip away abortion rights. But in the end, with Hillary gone, I think alot of them will accidentally on purpose forget to vote in November for Obama, despite what they are telling the pollsters now. That’s my take, but hey, I just live here.
On a grander political scale, the MN GOP should be figuring out a way to slice the “F” out of the “DFL”. It’s a natural. The farmers are far more conservative than the majority of the DFL party (and even a good portion of the MN GOP). They just need someone to eloquently point that out to them. As Obama would say, they like to cling to religion and guns. The problem is that they are too dependant on the twin govt teats of subsidies and ethanol. In other words, the DFL has succesfully bribed their votes for years. Not sure what the solution is there, other than appealing to their common decency (which is abundant).
Jul 29, 2008 - 11:13 am 37. Lucky BD:Ari Kaufman has become one of my favorite travel & political writers. His viewpoint is different from most articles that I read on travel, and I appreciate the way that he delves into the “characters” in the region rather than just the physical character OF the region. His historical and political bent adds more than a layer of interest even when I don’t necessarily share his point of view in the political arena. What it does do is to keep me reading because I’m always interested in where it ends up.
Jul 29, 2008 - 12:29 pm 38. ex-liberal:Great assessment of what is and what may come. Thanks for the ride!
Jul 29, 2008 - 2:17 pm 39. Steve Fein:This Ari Kaufman is one hell of a talented writer. I hope to read more articles by him in the future. A major talent!
Jul 29, 2008 - 2:33 pm 40. Lo:I agree with Mr. Kaufman that these states will most likely vote blue once again. “Old Democrats” are very hard to change. I have a very, very conservative grandfather who has never voted for a Republican, because he still sees the Democrat party as the same party it was in the 30’s and 40’s.
Ari’s commentary about the ethnic origins of some of these areas is an interesting one. It is possible that as the generations are further removed from their socialist Scandinavian roots, the gap may close.
Another excellent article, Mr. Kaufman!
Jul 29, 2008 - 5:35 pm 41. fred:I have thought for some years now that the true divide in the nation is exactly as the author states it: urban/suburban/college town, and the rest of the country. And it breaks down this way in pretty much every state. As a former neo-Marxist from the late seventies/early eighties I saw this pattern emerging way back then. It really comes down to the fact that one party appeals to those who want serious redistribution of income with a much more pacifistic stance on the world stage, and the other party appeals more to the tradition values of our society and for allowing individual businesses grow the economy and provide the jobs. Big city politicians and university professors are not net job creators. Most of the time they succumb to erroneous “zero-sum” thinking in economics. The rabble in the cities and universities hate having to fight wars. I’ve seen how Communist activists I once knew worked at strategies to rope in these dopes – the kids who don’t want to fight for their country and the welfare-dependent losers.
Family voting traditions do indeed play a large role in this, but sometimes the kids slip the bonds of tradition. I come from a family of die-hard, Democratic voters. I didn’t vote for a Republican until I was in my late forties. My parents are still alive and it does eat at them that half their kids vote Republican now.
I’m not from the Midwest. I live in the Northeast. However, this article was a very interesting read. I wish the author had done a longer in-depth article about more of his experiences traveling the Upper Midwest. I will say this about Michigan: that state is a case study in how NOT to cope with economic decline. Instead of keeping taxes low and finding ways to make it economically worthwhile for businesses in the state to expand, or for other companies to come in to Michigan, THEY KEEP TAXES HIGH AND EVEN RAISE THEM. Michigan and Minnesota are also plagued by some significant Muslim populations in their urban areas, which I am sure is no boon to Republicans.
Jul 29, 2008 - 5:53 pm 42. Hawaii Will:Interesting geographic breakdown.
Jul 29, 2008 - 7:16 pm 43. Josh:Even if I disagree with the political bent of these articles, I really enjoy this style you’ve created Ari. The political-travel hybrid is a good one. Always good to hear actual voices and voting rationales, even if they are entrenched and unreasonable for some people. In the months to come, we’ll be inundated with polls, surveys, opinion groups, margins of error, etc…it’s far more enjoyable (not to mention insightful) to hear people talk politics. Keep up the good work.
Jul 29, 2008 - 10:29 pm 44. Ari J. Kaufman:Well, it appears we are at the time where I can close up and respond.
I wanted thank you’all for the insightful comments. I was glad to see that nearly everyone got something different out of the piece. It was also refreshing to see some insight about the regional breakdowns, the economy, people’s personal experiences, and so on. That so many of you, especially those who may not agree with my “political bend/lean,” can still enjoy the piece, is quite refreshing and speaks volumes.
As I care about my country and how it is divided, broken down or set up, I aim to always impart some of that on those unable to travel as often or as thoroughly as others.
To offer a quick explanation to the “V is for Victory” fellow who, late Monday, sadly decided to personally attack me, what do you suggest as an alternative, sir? It is easy to sit in your house and criticise, but another thing to recommend a different plan, or act upon your claims. Do the Zogby, Gallup or Rasmussen polls that “randomly” call 800 folks over two night present an account better than mine?
(Note: I, nor anyone I know, has ever been called by one of those outfits; and as another person said, “how many writers from the NY & LA Times go out and visit any part of the country west of the Hudson or east of Palm Springs”?)
Nothing is going to be perfect, but at least I tried. As some correctly noted, I spent dozens of hours gatheting data and researching the history of these states, as well as current or past trends. And it appears most appreciated it. Some would rather attack the person and ignore the effort. Think about it.
Jul 30, 2008 - 9:18 am 45. v for victory:Yes, Ari, good eyes, I am sitting here in my pajamas, personally attacking you.
You need more of it, man.
None of your profs in college ripped you apart for a lousy paper? Sad. Re-read it in two weeks and then see if you can spot the stereotypes you have used. It is loaded with them.
I got sick from reading them, and could not read any more than your Minnesota section.
So take a more confident attitude, Ari Kaufman. Do not misconstrue “Back to the drawing board. Try again.” It is not a personal attack. It is a challenge.
Jul 30, 2008 - 3:55 pm 46. Ari J. Kaufman:Vic, you need to pinpoint areas. Though I thank you for responding, there were personal attacks, sarcasm and no helpful suggestions the first time and none here either. I think if you take a look at the comments, you are in the VAST minority here, don’t you? I think if you look at my other articles, you’ll see the same.
But thank you for checking back, and I await your advice.
Jul 31, 2008 - 11:11 am 47. v for victory:Re-read it in two weeks and then see if you can spot the stereotypes you have used.
Jul 31, 2008 - 1:48 pm 48. Ari J Kaufman:Coward. You have no answer. Typical. The article had 99% positive reviews, but you know better? No, you don’t. You’re just arrogant and vapid.
Jul 31, 2008 - 7:59 pm 49. Drew:Dear v for victory,
I fought the urge to go through your original comment line by line and analyze how they are indicative of your failure to accurately conceptualize the article. The truth however, is that it just doesn’t matter. And judging by the bickering taking place between you and Ari, this is where I diverge from both of you. You self admittedly didn’t read the majority of this article and yet you feel enough zeal to write an overtly negative review. I honestly can’t figure out why.
By the way, the difference between yourself and a college professor is that unlike a professor reading a student’s paper, you have no requirement or financial incentive to critique Mr. Kaufman’s writing. You seem to imply “constructive criticism” as your primary reason for writing your original review, but due to the negative tone and rude sarcasm, your comment was anything but constructive. And this seems to be the case in your later comments as well when you fail to provide evidence for the cliched stereotypes you allude to…
I could go on and say that English professors wouldn’t rip a paper which was lucid, eloquent, and entertaining from a literary perspective, just because their ideologies don’t conform to those of the author. That’s why they are college english professors and not middle school english teachers. I say this with confidence because I am an associate english professor.
Here’s the bottom line: you want to write a negative review, by all means do so. You want to be satirical and humorous through your negativity, great. But make sure you have a basis to your critique. Be able to show support for it, and explain yourself when push comes to shove. In place of that “support,” you placed quotes from Kaufman and an analogy which I used to make in 3rd grade…very clever! And while your complaining about cliches and stereotypes, why not choose something a little more original than “back to the drawing board.” I’ll give you an example, “you’re not as smart as you think.”
Jul 31, 2008 - 10:00 pm 50. v for victory:Man, you guys are sensitive. This is embarrassing.
It’s unfortunate that I am not like the other 99% of the folks on here, although it is nice to learn my new career path: a pajama-clad middle school English teacher.
Perhaps you meant that last bit as an insult, Drew, but I take it as a nice compliment. Schoolteachers are high on my list of those who deserve honor.
Anyway, for better or worse, I stated my evaluation (negative) and a suggestion or so, some encouragement and an emoticon to defuse and cool things off a bit. Ordinarily, that would suffice.
Drew, I have no idea what anybody’s ideology is here, neither yours nor Ari Kaufman’s. My ideology is organic deconstruction of Third World polar/aromatic complexes based upon the economic modulus expansion called Starbuck’s.
I.e., coffee.
It’s been fun talking to you guys.
Aug 1, 2008 - 12:38 pm 51. Ari J Kaufman:Yep, enjoy the coming semester at college, buddy. Call me when you join the real world or get some articles published.
Aug 2, 2008 - 5:56 pm 52. v for victory:Come on, man, I am trying to make nice over here.
Where’s the love?
Aug 3, 2008 - 3:34 am 53. Kyle Silvers:I live in Wisconsin and would consider myself an radically Liberal person in some terms. Wisconsin politics are very unpredictable but generally Wisconsin leans left.
Aug 13, 2008 - 10:56 pm 54. Pajamas Media » It’s All Coming Down to a Few Key States …:[...] Last month, I gave Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin — all close in 2004 — to Obama. In prior columns, I predicted Ohio and Indiana would go to McCain, as have other experts. About 35-40 states are obvious, leaving roughly a dozen for our insolent mainstream media, both campaigns, and Karl Rove to argue about being “in play.” [...]
Oct 3, 2008 - 7:32 am 55. It’s All Coming Down to a Few Key States … | USA TERM LIMITS:[...] Last month, I gave Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin — all close in 2004 — to Obama. In prior columns, I predicted Ohio and Indiana would go to McCain, as have other experts. About 35-40 states are obvious, leaving roughly a dozen for our insolent mainstream media, both campaigns, and Karl Rove to argue about being “in play.” [...]
Oct 4, 2008 - 9:00 am