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Why Barack Needs Hillary
Many Democrats still see the pair as the ultimate dynamic duo — and the best shot at victory in November.
When you look at Obama’s electoral map, the supposed new road he intends to draw to 270, the hill is a hard one to climb, with no proof even Barack Obama’s 50-state strategy will do it, regardless of his die hard supporter’s delusional dreams about “winning without Ohio and Florida.” Thomas Schaller, someone I’ve interviewed a couple of times on the Democratic folly of courting the southern vote, recently wrote that regardless of what Obama’s team thinks, The South Will Fall Again to Republicans.
… Mississippi, the state with the nation’s highest percentage of African-Americans in its population, illustrates how difficult Mr. Obama’s task will be in the South. Four years ago, President Bush beat John Kerry there by 20 points. For the sake of argument, let’s assume that Mr. Obama could increase black turnout in Mississippi to 39 percent of the statewide electorate, up from 34 percent in 2004, according to exit polls. And let’s assume that Mr. Obama will win 95 percent of those voters, up from the 90 percent who voted for Mr. Kerry four years ago.
If that happened, the black vote would yield Mr. Obama 37 percent of Mississippi’s statewide votes. To get the last 13 percent he needs for a majority, Mr. Obama would need to persuade a mere 21 percent of white voters in Mississippi to support him. Sounds easy, right?
But only 14 percent of white voters in the state supported Mr. Kerry. Mr. Obama would need to increase that number by 7 percentage points – a 50 percent increase. Mr. Obama struggled to attract white Democrats in states like Ohio and South Dakota. It strains credulity to believe that he will attract three white voters in Mississippi for every two that Mr. Kerry did….
I’ve never been convinced of Obama’s “new” map, worried that even though Senator Obama’s strengths are real, he could win the popular vote down south, but still leave the majority of these states to McCain, which would have our side falling short electorally in a year that is the Democrats to lose. So if Schaller is correct and Obama can’t turn the south beyond popular vote, one becomes even more convinced she’s the one. See West Virginia, Arkansas, Texas, Ohio… and Florida.
Obama’s got to be asking himself who can deliver what he cannot? A national security veep is important, but what state can he or she deliver? Bill Clinton can certainly coax out rural voters who love him, making them more comfortable with a President Obama. But as good as Bill is he’s no Hillary, whose star has now risen to equal status of any other, especially since the race has opened out on to Hillary standing very much alone, without Bill, having found her voice, her stride, and full political independence from her president husband. Finishing at the top of her game with her power base still intact, not to mention grumbling, instead of dimming, Hillary’s influence and importance is considerably greater than when she started. Nobody can talk middle class economics like Clinton who can attach a voter’s concerns to real solutions she understands and can explain, something Obama can’t yet match, with John McCain still hopelessly befuddled on the subject.
Clinton’s recent speech in Unity, New Hampshire not only reminded everyone of what these two candidates bring separately, but how they stack up side-by-side as a team. It also re-electrified and reinvigorated her supporters, drove home to ambivalent Obama supporters what her substance adds to his star power, making it clear that even though each are strong in their own right, equals even, they look and sound unbeatable together.
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Taylor Marsh is a political analyst, talk radio personality, and author. She can be found online at TaylorMarsh.com.
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29 Comments
1. Whitdawg:Sometimes Bill is best keeping his mouth shut. Im from the UK so dont really care who wins the Presidency, but can see how damaging his comments would be to the Democrat campaign. I read somewhere a few days ago that there had been an initiative to remove all Bills bad comments from the internet, not sure how successful that would/could be though …
Jul 3, 2008 - 11:54 am 2. AJ:Sure, sure, Taylor. Keep your “progressive” dreams alive. Obama, his experience, insight, moderate views and humility lacking, needs someone with experience, insight, moderate views and humility. That ain’t Hillary.
As Mike Weiss once said on this site, YOU have a better chance at being BHO’s running mate.
This would destroy the Democrat Party and push it farther into the hate America hands of Soros, Pelosi, Dean, Hollywood and the Jihad-loving leftists.
Gimme a break.
Jul 3, 2008 - 12:20 pm 3. Dave II:Hmmm… getting worried, Taylor???
Your candidate’s “50-state strategy” is a LOSING one from the start. You admit his electoral map to victory “is still far from certain” and “the hill is a hard one to climb”, so now you basically left with BEGGING Obama to pick your old favorite Hillary…seeing that he HASN’T closed the gap with her supporters and ANY other VP pick will do little if ANYTHING to win them over…
Well… excuse me a moment while I use my “Nelson from the Simpsons” voice:
HA HA!
Jul 3, 2008 - 12:22 pm 4. TL:Bring an old mother for change. HA.HA.
Jul 3, 2008 - 3:23 pm 5. Dave II:Oh, btw…if Hillary has any political common sense about her, and I think she does, she would DECLINE the invitation to partner up with this disaster in the making.
My guess is, she is waiting to see if Obama will implode before the convention, (which he is doing a darn good job of lately!) and see what, if any, options remain at the convention.
Believe me, Denver is going to be one wild ride…and who knows who leaves in one piece, though Obama and the DNC are trying their best to see that Hillary and her supporters are not allowed to ride at all!
Jul 3, 2008 - 4:43 pm 6. Lisa:I voted for Hillary and donated money to her. No way in hell am I going to vote for that race-baiting, sexist pig Obama and I’d be awfully disappointed in Clinton if she was foolish enough to be on his ticket.
Obama doesn’t know what the hell he is doing. Whenever he is off script, he opens his mouth and says something that proves he has no stand on anything. What blows me away are these Obamaniacs who believe that everything he says or does is justified no matter what.
Jul 3, 2008 - 5:07 pm 7. rotwang:Hillary brings nothing to the ticket, other than her own baggage and negatives, Bill’s lately-tanking stock as a party icon, and the scary prospect of the two of them running a parallel Executive Branch out of the Naval Observatory.
Hillary’s broken-hearted dead-enders perceive the VP slot as an insult, so why bother? They can’t accept the fact that Hillary ran a slipshod campaign, underestimated her opponent then tried to game the primary system and failed. They’ve turned her into the Shrine of Fatima, and they won’t be happy until Obama quits the race…which ain’t bloody likely.
Jul 3, 2008 - 8:40 pm 8. keithacita:barbara boxer for president – she is the only one with judgment and experience
Jul 3, 2008 - 8:40 pm 9. Tom Paine:The reason Obama will not offer Hillary the Vice-Presidency is that she and Bill would come as a package — a package that from the Vice-Presidential podium could overshadow Obama, could not be fired, and could not be trusted to support Obama rather than their own ambitions in, say, 2012.
Jul 4, 2008 - 9:42 am 10. Salamantis:I’m a McCain supporter, so take this as you will. But if Obama absolutely, positively cannot bring himself to choose Hillary as VP, I would recommend Representative Jane Harman (D-California). Not only would she help with the disaffected feminist vote, but also she is a political moderate who could help draw from the center, and, as someone who has spent 8 years on the House Intelligence Committee, the last 4 as ranking member, and who currently serves as Chair of the Homeland Security Subcommittee on Intelligence & Terrorism Risk Assessment, she would contribute a gravitas in counterterrorism, homeland security and intelligence matters that, quite frankly, Obama quite transparently lacks.
Jul 4, 2008 - 3:51 pm 11. ZEITGEIST:[...] TAYLOR MARSH: Why Barack Needs Hillary. [...]
Jul 4, 2008 - 3:59 pm 12. Mike Smith:It’d be a hoot to see just how the two of them reconciled their views on issues like energy, Iraq, tax policy, and balancing the budget. The dems are VERY vulnerable on all of these issues this fall, both for the presidency and for returning congressmen. This “dream ticket” would make the Kennedy-Johnson “shotgun marriage” (1960) look like a picnic in the park.
Obama would face the problem of having Hillary’s loose canon, Bill, pontificating at every opportunity. Obama can’t keep his advisors in line, let alone keep Bill and Hillary in line. Too many obvious substantive policy differences, coupled with too many over-sized egos.
What’s more, I just can’t imagine anyone in their right mind choosing to have Hillary as a partner. Too many former “colleagues” have spoken on the record about her being a poisonous person to work with, or for. Can you imagine how the Obama-Clinton “dream team” could possibly manage their administration, and their relationship with congress?
I doubt that Obama would see the Clinton’s as adding to his electability, and I’m certain he’d know they wouldn’t add to his ability to govern.
Jul 4, 2008 - 4:17 pm 13. Seixon:Taylor, where have you been the last week? Mr. O has been sprinting toward the center for the last couple of weeks, especially as of late.
That tells me he’s already decided to forget about putting a more moderate candidate like Clinton on the ballot with him. With his stampede toward the center, Clinton is useless to him.
Obama needs Clinton like a pizza needs frosting. And yes, that will be on the SATs next year.
Jul 4, 2008 - 4:37 pm 14. Dave Hardy:A president doesn’t need a VP whose idea of job opportunity includes publicly discussing his assassination. The VP is allowed to eagerly scan the Washington Post obits over breakfast, but not to consciously strive to add to them.
Jul 4, 2008 - 7:11 pm 15. Oremus:How can he NOT pick her? If he picks a man, fem dems will attack him in this ‘year of the woman’ because no woman has ever done so well before at the national level; and if he’s going to have to pick a woman, it has to be Hillary, not some woman who hasn’t just won over 17M primary votes.
Jul 4, 2008 - 7:33 pm 16. radical_moderate:He’s stuck with her if she wants it. His hiring of Solis Doyle was meant to send a message he doesn’t want her, but it was so obvious Hillary won’t hesitate to call his bluff, if she wants the job.
“After winning 17 million votes, finishing stronger than the nominee, with a voting base he doesn’t have, why wouldn’t Senator Obama seriously consider Hillary Clinton as his top choice as running mate?
”
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There are a few problems with this statement. Number one, she won half of the DEMOCRATIC Votes, we don’t know how she would do with Independants and “soft” Republicans in the general, but I suspect not so well as her negatives remain high and virtually unchanged from before the primary among the general electorate. In addition, who knows how many people who voted for her in that “strong finish” did so because she was the only white choice on the ballot (we do know that in at least 2 States almost a quarter of the voters said that race played a role in their votes, I tend to think that these voters will go for McCain in November.)
Now what does Obama need in a Candidate? Foreign Policy/Military chops, and possibly someone with red state appeal…Mrs Clinton doesn’t fit the Bill I’m afraid.
Considering that Obama has gone blue-dawg (much to the chagrin of the far left…which proves to me that Obama is his own man and not in the pocket of the left) I assume that someone like Russ Feingold won’t be Obama’s pick. As a moderate Democrat, I’d like to see Jim Webb (who might bring Virginia with him), or even Chuck Hagel to demonstrate Obama’s commitment to bi-partisanship.
Finally, most of the rational Hillary supporters, particularly women, will look closely at Senator McCain’s unwavering pledge to overturn Roe and decide that a revenge vote isn’t worth it. In short, your argument for a Hillary VP slot makes little sense.
Jul 4, 2008 - 7:38 pm 17. Rob Mandel:Thankfully you’re (democrat and all) the one talking about “white votes”, because if a Republican dared to utter the phrase, well, I am sure you know the rest. But alas, this is the quandary you dems have given the nation, an electorate defined by race and gender, and forcing us into predefined camps. As if someone can’t actually think for themselves.
Me? I’m an independent, former republican, of the Reagan/Goldwater/libertarian breed, the ones who are persona non grata in that party. I am angry as hell at the republicans, but disgusted at the democrats in was you can’t imagine. Yes, you will lose this election because people like me (not my skin color or my religion or my anything) will under no circumstances vote for a democrat. Call me what you will (I actually might have considered voting for Hillary, oddly enough as I figured she’d be tough as nails on defense) but shame on the democrats for the mess they’ve willingly created.
Jul 4, 2008 - 8:44 pm 18. Kimba:So what does Obama do? Scan the Veep field for both parties….weak on both sides. And very recent polling has shown that almost one third of Hillary supporters will stay home, and 10% will go for McCain.
And remember Hillary trounced him towards the end of the primary season. Her victories in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Mass. and Florida (yes, Florida), cannot be denied. Without these and Michigan, he will lose, period.
He needs to get all of her votes, all of the minority voting, and even so, must bring in unregistered voters to the table.
Obama, who somehow acheived an almost messianic image during the primaries is leaking oil. He is not drawing the large crowds anymore. His momentum is gone. His freshness is all but evaporated.
But the one undeniable point to remember is, they looked damn good together on the stage in Unity. If he cannot even bring his own party together, then what does it say for his ability to being about his “One America?”
Like it or not, when you seperate Hillary from Bill, she is an excellent candidate, the true power broker for the libs. And usually the smartest person in the room, as well as always being the hardest worker in the room.
If he is smart, he will consider Hillary and not give Edwards any thought at all. Obama / Edwards is a losing ticket, guaranteed.
And oh, by the way, the liberals did not create race voting divisions, they were always there. Look at S.C voting for Jackson twice over Clinton? Anyone who thinks Jesse Jackson should be the most powerful man in the free world, please stand up….
Jul 5, 2008 - 8:03 am 19. james wilson:I can bring up race baiters on the right, but the timing would be horrible considering events over the past few days.
This is the only positive thing I will ever say about this narcissist halferican nitwit: He is not going to be the first alpha male to voluntarily choose to be have this pear-shaped scream attached to his balls. It’s not going to happen under any circumstances. Good for him.
Jul 5, 2008 - 8:10 am 20. Forest Gump:Taylor Marsh from a March 14, 2008 post:
“[b]Playing Democratic voters as fools[b], Obama and his campaign believe his current stance and couched statement on Wright is sufficient. It is not. How can someone attend a church for 20 years, be as close to Wright as Obama is, which is beyond dispute, but not know what he’s said?
[b]Senator Obama obviously thinks Democratic voters are stupid. It’s insulting.[b] And you don’t have to turn towards McCain to be a turned off Democrat at the thought of Obama as the nominee. It’s another judgment moment that reminds everyone of Tony Rezko.”
Stupid is as stupid does!
Jul 5, 2008 - 10:41 am 21. radical_moderate:“He is not drawing the large crowds anymore. His momentum is gone. His freshness is all but evaporated.”
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I don’t think that choosing to speak at smaller venues means that Obama isn’t drawing Large Crowds anymore. But whatever you know?
The fact is that Mrs. Clinton on the ticket might tempt her most rabid followers to vote for the ticket (I have read many that say they still won’t vote for Obama even if Hillary is on the ticket), but she remains a polarizing figure among the general electorate, and I honestly don’t see her attracting Independent voters that he needs.
Better that he pick someone on the other side of the War vote than Clinton. Iraq was his “change” issue, and although he may back down on the timetable for withdrawal, he is still running on his judgement in opposing the War.
Jul 5, 2008 - 2:04 pm 22. Sally:We absolutely know what we’ve got with McCain, (Looking back on the last seven and a half years). I’ll take my chances with Senator Obama, someone who hasn’t been thoroughly tainted by the Washington, something that can’t be said about either Hillary or McCain. No Hillary for VP., and No McCain for anything.
Jul 5, 2008 - 9:05 pm 23. HillaryforPresident:Obama is a liar and a cheater. That’s my personal conviction.
To sally, Obama not tainted by Washington? Why is he considering all Bush Generals now? No, Obama will better off if he is tainted by Washington! Obama’s worst qualification is being tainted by the Communists and Socialists. His current strategy of pandering the conservatives is the exact gimmickry of the Communists who are Anti-War but with the add-on of weakening the entire military forces of America. Obama is the Trojan Horse of the CPUSA.
I will vote for McCain for President this November. Period.
Jul 7, 2008 - 3:31 am 24. radical_moderate:“I will vote for McCain for President this November. Period.”
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From Hillary supporter to voting for McCain? That is quite a leap considering that Mrs. Clinton’s positions and Senator McCain’s are diametrically opposed.
But tell me, what is it about McCain that you like? The fact that yet again, millions of Americans will have no access to affordable Health Care? Or that McCain might manage to overturn Roe (please don’t tell me that a Democrat Senate will keep McCain’s appointees in check, both Scalia and Thomas were voted in with Democrat majorities.)
Are you really supportive of permanent military bases in Iraq?
Hillary has thrown her support behind Obama, and their positions are just not that different.
I understand that you’re disappointed, but could you try to be less emotional and a wee bit more rational?
Jul 7, 2008 - 1:43 pm 25. Kimba:I am as stubborn a Hillary supporter as anyone, but a former Clinton supporter voting for anyone but Obama is nothing more than a slap in Hillary’s face, and goes against everything she has fought for. I know your concerns, but trust the power Dems to keep this pup in line. Why do you think he has turned hard right? Not his idea. He has been handled by Axlerod since day one, and is extremely coachable. He knows his talents, and his shortcomings.
Jul 8, 2008 - 6:32 pm 26. HillaryforPresident:Hillary has thrown her support behind Obama, and their positions are just not that different.
!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Why? Hillary’s position is more similar to McCain.
The only similar thing between Obama and Clinton is the Party. What differs between McCain and Clinton is the party.
In principles, they are more alike than compared to Obama, even in the issue of War, healthcare, etc.
What is obvious but never discussed is this: the Clintons support JFK – an anti-communist Dem President.
Your Obama is a communist.
Bill is right in saying that Hillary’s loss is due to the far left including CODEPINK, CPUSA and Chicago DSA who are all aligning behind Obama. Don’t you know that even Howard Dean is a socialist himself, including Sanders of Vermont?
There are moderate Democrats who are against communits and hardline socialists working within the Dem Party.
And that’s US… Clintons4McCain.
Jul 9, 2008 - 2:00 am 27. HillaryforPresident:Why do you think he has turned hard right? Not his idea. He has been handled by Axlerod since day one, and is extremely coachable. He knows his talents, and his shortcomings.
!!!!!!!!!!
EXACTLY. HILLARY HAS STILL CHANCE IN 2012 IF OBAMA DOES NOT WIN 2008.
Jul 9, 2008 - 2:02 am 28. HillaryforPresident:Radical Moderate:
During some Democrat gatherings, I was so irritated seating and standing with communist groups. First, it was okey … for the sake of the votes.
After the cheatings orchestrated by the communists… I BECAME AWARE OF HOW STUPID I AM MINGLING WITH THE COMMUNISTS.
There are already many of us who are NOW emboldened by our next MAIN AGENDA: Remove all communists from Dem Party. Let the communists form their own group and never cause harm to Dem party again. PERIOD.
For the mean time, VOTE FOR MCCAIN.
Jul 9, 2008 - 2:10 am 29. susan:Hillary is the only one that can guarantee a win in nov with barack.. they have chemisty,, she is tried and
Jul 19, 2008 - 8:27 pmtrue campaigner and can deflect the gop attack machine in her own way so it is the best thing for all .. also guarantees the almost 18 million that wanted hillary will be elctified and have more boots on the streetin nov to get out the vote…