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With Obamanomics, We’re Not Even Close to $eeing Green
Money flowing into the Treasury has been on a yearlong downward spiral.
In much of the Midwest, 2009 thus far has been a year of record rains, lots of snow, and lots of record low temperatures.
The bad news is that this year’s weather has presented unwanted challenges to farmers attempting to get their planting done in time, and that flooding has caused terrible hardship in some areas. The upside, besides the fact that it’s yet another anecdotal nail in the coffin of global warming alarmists, is that 2009’s weather thus far has made keeping the grass green a much easier task for most homeowners. When they look outside, they see healthy green growth and would agree that this year’s climate, for all of its other problems, has been pretty good for growing a lawn.
What in the world does this have to do with government receipts? Plenty, in a metaphorical sense. You see, in the spring of 2008, U.S. government coffers, like this spring’s Midwestern grass, also experienced a lot of healthy green growth. That’s because, despite the fact that the alleged recession-deciders at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) still believe otherwise, the U.S. economy’s climate was pretty good. In fact, the results were so positive that the NBER’s apparent failure to consider federal receipt growth in their recession determination should be seen as almost negligent.
To appreciate just how good the supposedly recessionary second quarter was for Uncle Sam, it’s useful to look at the numbers in two ways. Here’s the first (the analysis excludes 2008 stimulus payments, which the government should have classified as expenditures; all figures are in millions):

The chart shows strong inflows in two of the three specific line items. First, taxes paid by employees basically kept pace with inflation excluding food and energy.
Second, confounding the alleged experts, taxes directly paid by individuals continued to soar in the year during which the effect of Bush 43’s supply-side tax cuts was supposed to wear off. April’s inflows in this category led to an all-time one-month record for federal receipts. What’s more (not shown), June 2008’s analogous figure, which consisted almost entirely of estimated payments, came in slightly above that of June 2007, indicating that entrepreneurs, investors, businesspeople, and others who pay quarterly estimates remained mostly optimistic about the state of the economy — at least on June 16, when the payments were due. Additionally, collections from economic activity during June 2008 were an all-time record for that month.
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Tom Blumer owns a training and development company based in Mason, Ohio, outside of Cincinnati. He presents personal finance-related workshops and speeches at companies, and runs BizzyBlog.com.
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39 Comments
1. BobU:The actions of the “POR Economy” noted above appear to be a form of national insanity/suicide. If we can instead assume these people are actually thinking and intelligent, then the only apparent motivation of POR is to destroy the U.S.A.
Jul 10, 2009 - 3:50 am 2. "progressive"watch:Didn’t the great Warren Buffet just yesterday say bring on more POR economy? What’s in it for him? Has Bill Gates shut his mouth?
To Blumer’s description of the POR agenda another thing or two might be added–porkulus spending and law-breaking.
Jul 10, 2009 - 3:52 am 3. David Thomson:George W. Bush did quite a bit of harm to the economy. Barack Obama has made things a lot worse. We needed tax breaks and serious efforts to curtail government spending. Obama did exactly the opposite. I do not question his sincerity. His heart is probably in the right place. Obama’s instincts, however, doom him to failure. He is committed to the notion that that all economic problems can be resolved if only we select the graduates of our “best” schools to run things. The idea that everyone would be a lot better if these arrogant elites would simply mind their own business is an utterly alien concept.
Jul 10, 2009 - 3:59 am 4. Meryl:1.BobU
“The actions of the “POR Economy” noted above appear to be a form of national insanity/suicide.”
Euthanasia. Not suicide.
Jul 10, 2009 - 5:33 am 5. Meryl:3.DavidThomson
“His heart is probably in the right place.”
People carrying burglary tools in their car trucks cannot forever be given the benefit of the doubt that they are really en route to work on their Grandma’s porch steps when every street they drive on has an upsurge in home break-ins.
Jul 10, 2009 - 5:36 am 6. TennesseeVolunteer:Mr. Blumer has it right. As a small businessman manufacturing construction related products that are GREEN I held on to my employees until it almost broke me. Across our great country there are tens of thousands of businesses like mine where people are going Galt because they have to. I will keep my business open but have to get another job. No whining here but the reality is we listened very closely to Obama/Pelosi/Reid. I would say that most of us are shocked at the arrogance and ignorance they have displayed. Whether incompetent or evil, we have made the decisions that are absolutely necessary to protect our families and businesses. If our country does not reassert itself against these untried and ignorant leaders, the next four quarters will make the first two quarters of 2009 look like the good ole times!
Jul 10, 2009 - 6:11 am 7. alex:This is why numbers need to be interpreted and understood in their context;
April of 2008 is he high because the US underwent record growthprevious years, resulting in larger than usual taxes collected on….APRIL 15. What is collected on April 15th of 2008 reflects the PREVIOUS year economic record, namely 2007. That the writer cannot understand this illustrates the balance of errors and interpretive mistakes the rest of this article contains;
The POR economy over a year ago…?? exactly when was President Obama and the balance of legislative branch elected in this article…or was there a secret election..? as far as the rest of the United States is concerned the elections took place in November 2008, and took presidential office January of 2009….about 6 months ago.
The economy took a tumble due to unsustainable credit bubble manufactured by federal reserve, trying to maintain the illusion of nearly free credit environment. In addition the Federal reserve wired over 2 trillion in cash to European banks during 2008, explanation of which they have so far refused. On top of this President Bush and reckless congress spent wildly for several years, the results of which we are now starting to see. It will get much worse, as the current administration is not equipped to handle the coming crisis.
The current environment was manufactured by Federal Reserve and enabled by ignorant politicians.
Jul 10, 2009 - 6:18 am 8. blotto:David T: “I do not question his sincerity.” I do!!
I usually agree with your postings. However, unless you are afraid of H.R. 1966, I cannot understand your generosity.
While Meryl was on point in her comments, I believe Obama has been nothing but deliberate in his destruction of America. His sincerity lies only with making America pay for its greatness.
Jul 10, 2009 - 7:11 am 9. Tom Blumer:#7, April has payments for the balance of previous year AND first-quarter estimates for the current year.
And what about …..
…. didn’t you understand?
Jul 10, 2009 - 7:19 am 10. uburoisc:Alex is correct; the idiot politicians are too ignorant of economics to understand exactly what is happening. They defer to financial experts to tell them what to do when a crisis occurs (the same financial experts who serve their own self-interest, not the best interests of the American people, in both good and bad times). The blame to go around is very bipartisan, and there are only a small handful of congressional representatives who have the candlepower to even ask the right questions, let alone make informed decisions–and the American public is even dimmer. Things are going to get worse.
Jul 10, 2009 - 7:24 am 11. Tom Blumer:#7, as to what Pelosi, Obama, and Reid did starting just over a year ago, see #6. TennesseeVolunteer listened. You apparently didn’t.
Jul 10, 2009 - 7:25 am 12. JED:Rob from the rich, give to the poor. Evoke “moral authority and moral imperative.” Change Washington from tax and spend to spend and tax. Hope that America can pull itself out of whatever mess remains after radical changes of the core sectors. Nationalize the banks, major industries, health care, energy, and the media outlets. Community organize the world. Invest in the narrative of past failures. Stimulate or pay off the favorable voting block with the national treasury. Print money past when it hurts the next generations. Promise, promise, promise. Become the supreme leader of the legislation as well as the executive branch. Keep rolling on AF1 and watch the revenue flow in from the New Green Economy. We shall all be awash in our new moral clarifications, social equality, and more perfect unions any time soon.
Jul 10, 2009 - 7:37 am 13. rocketeer:@7 alex – April of 2008 is he high because the US underwent record growthprevious years, resulting in larger than usual taxes collected You’re proving the author’s point with this comment. Why do you think the economy was experiencing high growth? Was it due to over-taxation and excessive regulation? I don’t think so.
The POR economy over a year ago…?? Um, yes, Pelosi and Reid took over control of both chambers of the legislative branch in 2006. You didn’t get the memo? No, we really can’t blame Obama directly for the last two years, but we can certainly pin the extremely rapid acceleration of the recession on him since he took power.
The current environment was manufactured by Federal Reserve and enabled by ignorant politicians Yeah, I totally agree with you on that one. Both sides have jumped the shark with the economy in the last couple of years. Republican’s are starting to extract their heads from their backsides, but the Democrats are running full steam off the cliff.
Jul 10, 2009 - 7:43 am 14. RE:This eceonomy is going nowhere but down as long as the Democrat Sword of Damocles hangs over our heads.
It’s not rocket science. I’ll agree with those who suspect there’s a deliberateness to the hostile business climate for small and mid-size business.
Jul 10, 2009 - 7:45 am 15. SusieQ!:It is all intentional…overload the government system and it collapses..
Obama and his cronies will be there with martial law to “save ” us. Do you actually believe all this happened by “accident”..how European of you…
Cloward/Piven Strategy is in effect.
Jul 10, 2009 - 7:57 am 16. blotto:I know conspiracies are weird, but I wish there was someone researching a Pelican Brief on our economy. Obviously over a period of years dating back to Clinton the Fed has allowed the markets to uptick without any real increase in real output; sure productivity increased but what were we producing. Seventy percent of our GDP is service; we only export less than 30% of our GDP. So what is the basis of our rising market?
If our market and economy was not built on a house of cards, then why did it collapse so easily and right before the election, due to the subprime mortgage crisis? How come the Fed has been so loose with money and credit, why was nobody really looking into Fanny and Freddie? Where was the SEC and its diligence over derivatives and leveraging of the market and housing?
Alex pretty much covered it but I just think there was more to our crash than we are being told. Even Susie Q and the Cloward/Piven strategy could not have sunk us without something else happening coincidently.
Jul 10, 2009 - 8:27 am 17. sodacrackers:blotto, I do believe they tried to tell the congress that fanny and freddie were in deep trouble and needed regulation. But the democrats in congress insisted that all was well and that fanny and freddie were working beautifully.
Jul 10, 2009 - 8:55 am 18. JED:I am sure you are correct in assuming that there is more to the crash than we are being told.
The burning question for future hindsight is “did the stumulus package, omnibus bill, and othr deficit spending porkulus help or hurt the economy? Bush’s stimulus rebates did little or nothing. The big package is 10% spend and confidence is not high. Would the recession have corrected itself or did government intervention and radical changes drive it deeper?
Jul 10, 2009 - 8:59 am 19. Ms. Attitude:Khomeini is said to have stressed “the spiritual over the material”. Six months after his first speech he expressed exasperation with complaints about the sharp drop in Iran’s standard of living: ‘I cannot believe that the purpose of all these sacrifices was to have less expensive melons’ On another occasion emphasizing the importance of martyrdom over material prosperity: “Could anyone wish his child to be martyred to obtain a good house? This is not the issue. The issue is another world.” He is also reportedly famous for answering a question about his economic policies by declaring that ‘economics is for donkeys’. This low opinion of economics is said to be “one factor explaining the inchoate performance of the Iranian economy since the revolution.” Another factor was the long war with Iraq, whose cost led to government debt and inflation, eroding personal incomes, and unprecedented unemployment.
While Iran became more strict Islamically under Khomeini, absolute poverty rose by nearly 45% during the first 6 years of his rule. Emigration from Iran also developed, reportedly for the first time in the country’s history. Since the revolution, an estimated “two to four million entrepreneurs, professionals, technicians, and skilled craftspeople (and their capital)” have emigrated to other countries.
from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruhollah_Khomeini#Emigration_and_economy
Are we headed down the same road?
Jul 10, 2009 - 9:11 am 20. Delia:So, when will our dollars become about as worthwhile as ‘monopoly’ money?
When does the ‘new’ funny money start getting printed? You know, the money with B.H.O.’s/Dear Leader’s face on it?
When does China say, “No more loans!”?
The zombie banks are coming… My husband is already ‘dealing’ with one that he had a construction loan with and it’s UGLY.
A lumber company my husband has worked with for years just informed him that they are going bankrupt.
-And, the idiots in this supposed ‘admin’ want to talk about cap-n-trade, 0bamacare and global warming? Uhhhhh. Do these ‘people’ even live in the REAL WORLD? The 0bots can shove their moronic ‘czars’ where the sun don’t shine!
Jul 10, 2009 - 9:30 am 21. David Thomson:“David T: “I do not question his sincerity.” I do!!
I usually agree with your postings. However, unless you are afraid of H.R. 1966, I cannot understand your generosity.”
With friends like me, Barack Obama doesn’t need any enemies. He may not be consciously committed to destroying the country, but so what? His instincts seemingly will carry the day. Obama’s intellectual formation is inherently hostile towards America. The only way to save it is to radically reform the nation from the top down. This mindset is second nature to him. Obama rarely, if ever, gives it a few moments of questioning analysis.
Jul 10, 2009 - 10:04 am 22. HelenG:Shouldn’t your phrase “June 2009’s analogous figure, which consisted almost entirely of estimated payments, came in slightly above that of June 2008 … at least on June 16, when the payments” read:
Jul 10, 2009 - 10:30 am 23. JED:“June 2007’s analogous figure, which consisted almost entirely of estimated payments, came in slightly above that of June 2008 … at least on June 16, when the payments were due?”
See from Table II [in millions] “Individual Income and Employment Taxes, Not Withheld’”
For June 15, 2007 MTD [http://fms.treas.gov/dtsarchive/fy%202007/07061500.txt] = $13,655 [ $2,410 for day's receipts]
For June 16, 2008 MTD [http://fms.treas.gov/dtsarchive/fy%202008/08061600.txt] = $13,021 [$2,781 for day's receipts]
For June 15, 2009 MTD [http://fms.treas.gov/webservices/show?ciURL=/dts/09061500.txt] = $8,646 [ $1,903 for day's receipts]
On the positive economic news, the munitions industries have seen a boom year. Obama has sold more guns and ammo than his democratic predessor, Clinton. In the last 18 months the prices of these industrial commodities have approximately tripled as the factories are going 24/7. This market seems to be in panic push upward.
Jul 10, 2009 - 11:12 am 24. RE:23. Jed
So it’s the ‘bitter clingers’ that are providing the one bright spot in the economy?
Too funny.
Jul 10, 2009 - 11:41 am 25. Marc Malone:Green lawns? Green shoots! Yay!
#7 alex – You make a good observation. However, this has more to do with Congress than the President. The Dems took over Congress in November 2006. Their first budget began October 2007(if I’m thinking straight yet. More coffee, please). During the Bush years, Pub Congress spending increased 7%/yr. Under the Dems, +10%/yr. Of course, this recent omnibus bill is through the roof. It may just be coincidental that when the Dems took over, the wheels began to come off.
#22 HelenG – Thanks for the correction. I knew those numbers couldn’t be right. Nice work.
The real problem is that it’s not really a recession. It’s something much worse. It is a complete breakdown of our economic system as a result of Foreign Object Damage (FOD). It was governmental interference in the marketplace which caused this mess. Look at the causes of the housing mess, and it goes back to Carter and Clinton… and Dem policies.
The financial institutions stopped investing so much in the economy and producing wealth, and began investing in Congress and stealing wealth. They should have been allowed to fail. The markets would have recovered by now. Bush allowed this nonsense to happen.
He should have fired TreasSec Paulson right away in Sep 2008 for conflict of interest. Paulson’s previous job was head of Goldman Sachs in 2006. He helped create the mess. The bailout went to his buddies in the financial world. Besides, he is a Democrat, as is Bernanke. But Bush, not understanding economics and in a panic, gave the keys to the kingdom to Paulson and the Dems. Danged Liberal Republican hiring Dems for his cabinet! Personnel is Policy!
Jul 10, 2009 - 12:28 pm 26. Saltherring:Some of my former U.S. Dept. of Defense and private sector business associates and I are engaged in a debate over whether Obama’s heart is “in the right place”, as David Thomson @ 3 seems to think, or whether “(Obama) has been nothing but deliberate in his destruction of America”, as blotto @ 8 believes. We have come to the regretable conclusion that with the abject imbicility of this president’s economic policies, the utter buffoonery of his encounters with leaders of foreign governments and his insistence on pursuit of radical, socialist legislation (Cap and Trade and single-payer healthcare) there is little to doubt. Our president knows exactly what he is doing and his intent is to spend us into oblivion, destroy our constitution and turn the United States of America into a third-world socialist oligarchy, with himself as dictator. Nothing he has done or proposed, thus far, leads me to believe otherwise. .
Jul 10, 2009 - 1:33 pm 27. locke:His heart may be in the right place, but from his perspective, why should Zeus care what humans think
Jul 10, 2009 - 2:08 pm 28. David Thomson:about his actions? He presented himself not only as
a change agent, but a self-revealed gift from high above to the American people. [This explains in part why the press corps loves him so much; they also see
themselves in Olympian terms, and the rest of us in
plebian ones.] Zeus does not care about our small,
insignificant understandings of his master plans. We have sublunary zip codes for goodness sakes.
“…whether Obama’s heart is “in the right place”, as David Thomson”
It’s not the heart—but the ideological instincts. They override the conscious brain activity. Barack Obama is not really thinking about this stuff. He is truly a poorly read and shallow individual. As I said previously, it’s second nature to him.
Jul 10, 2009 - 2:16 pm 29. Tom Blumer:#22, Helen and #25 Marc Malone — The numbers ARE right, because the relevant June figures are for the whole month, not specific dates during the month.
People made their decisions on how much to pay in estimated taxes on or before June 16, but the IRS received them through the mail, processed them, and sent them on to the Treasury during the course of the rest of the month (you may have noticed that the IRS is sometimes VERY slow at cashing checks, but not as bad as they used to be; additionally, they don’t turn the money over to the Treasury instantly). So these June 16 and slightly earlier payments would have appeared on the rest of the daily reports issued during the month, with a spike on the first few days after June 16 and a gradual decrease during most of the rest of the month.
The June 30, 2008 total was $60661 + 2205 (individual income taxes near the bottom of the page) = $62,866.
http://fms.treas.gov/dtsarchive/fy%202008/08063000.txt
The June 30, 2007 total was $59828 + 2160 = 61,988.
http://fms.treas.gov/dtsarchive/fy%202007/07062900.txt
That’s a 1.4% increase, which is barely below core inflation.
Contrast that to this year, where the total is $40663 + 1340 = 42,003.
http://fms.treas.gov/webservices/show/?ciURL=/dts/09063000.txt
That’s a 33% drop.
My points stand.
Jul 10, 2009 - 3:16 pm 30. HelenG:When you say “What’s more (not shown), June 2009’s analogous figure, which consisted almost entirely of estimated payments, came in slightly above that of June 2008″ doesn’t that mean that estimated taxes for June 2009 are more than June 2008? But your figures show that June 2009’s estimated tax collections were 33% less than June 2008’s.
Jul 10, 2009 - 4:39 pm 31. Rashputin:It’s funny to see people ignoring the fact that Bush on multiple occasions over multiple years warned that the Fannie/Freddie crisis was coming and wanted increased regulations. It’s even funnier that people forget the, “Republicans don’t want average people to be homeowners” series of “interviews” the media went along with for several months when there were hearings, hearings where Baaknee Fwank said the Republicans were just fear mongers because there was nothing at all wrong.
Seems like no matter what people do manage to get right, they still end up buying into at least some of the revisionist history they’re fed.
have a nice day
Jul 10, 2009 - 4:55 pm 32. Pat J:Good point and very relevant in my neck of the woods. We experienced a bizarre weather phenomena in May in the form of a derecho 120 miles long and 40 miles wide. this was on top of various ice storms and lots of rain. The farmers had to deal with wet soil and downed trees.
Add to that the main area economic generator, the University is suffering from declining enrollment. Stimulus anyone?
Jul 10, 2009 - 9:14 pm 33. DanW:Very good Tom. The future of the economy can be predicted by how the POR economic plans affect the ‘income statement.’ Its that simple. All of the POR economic proposals hit the income statement and are not offset by lower taxes. In fact, the Democrats want higher taxes. This forecasts an absolute disaster for the income statement and therefore the economy.
Only abandoning the Democratic programs and lowering taxes can fix the income statement. Obama needs to fire his economic team and hire some CPAs.
Jul 11, 2009 - 6:14 am 34. Gadsen:I have a new term for the Obama economy and I hope it catches on; “Obammunism”.
Jul 11, 2009 - 7:42 am 35. Tom Blumer:#30, HelenG, there was an error between the operator and the keyboard in the paragraph you cite. I was comparing June 2008 to June 2007, and the text has been corrected.
June 2008’s relevant line was slightly ahead of June 2007. June 2009’s dropped 33% from June 2008. Thanks for catching it.
Jul 11, 2009 - 9:57 am 36. Marc Malone:#30 HelenG – That’s the part that was confusing me, too. I thought the numbers were wrong, but rather, it was the phraseology.
Jul 11, 2009 - 10:55 am 37. myth buster:I don’t think Obama is a communist; I think he’s a fascist. Communists don’t try to maintain an image of private enterprise, but fascists do. I fear that Obama’s ideas for health care will amount to another T4 project.
Jul 11, 2009 - 7:05 pm 38. alex:The Federal Reserve determines how US economy goes, which is not actually part of the US government. it is an entity neither public nor private. Congress turned over responsibility to this group in 1913, effectively circumventing its charged responsibility in the Constitution to manage and coin money for the Nation.
This is the greatest risk to America at this time.
The second greatest risk is mismanagement of the US Dollar ( USD ). By promoting and relying on export of the USD instead of actual trade goods, Congress has placed the Nation at great risk. This action gives China, Saudia Arabia, Japan, Russia and the EU leverage over the American economy.
In the late 1930’s the Arabian American Company was formed (ARAMCO), which today is known as Saudi Aramco. The US govt allowed this entity to be created and Exist in return for oil contraactcts to be settled in USD. This created a need for countries and companies to maintain large liquid pools of cash in the NYSE, and Other institutions and injected massive amounts of cash into the New York banking system. ( AKA New York Fed )
The problem is that today many countries want to shit away from the USD to the Euro and Chinese Dollar ( Yuan) to settle their trades. This is due to mismanagement of US dollar, and US economy. Today China has agreements with 5 Nations to settle trade with Yuan. these are smaller contracts.
However Russia, Venezuela, Iran, EU and several smaller nations are negotiating settlement of major trade pacts with China with Yuan and Euro dollars instead of USD.
If this occurs, and all indications are it is accelerating, then the US economy will no longer have a foundation to stabalize its own currency. When the USD is no longer stable, the US will have to purchase Euro’s and Yuan to maintain economic trade. This will be the last straw as US economy was only able to operate by borrowing against its taxpayers by selling Treasuries and borrowing from Federal Reserve.
These trends are what is driving the US economy at the moment. It is removing wealth and replacing with Debt across the board. When US taxpayers wake up to reality they are living in, and if enough rage to change the political machine is brought to bear, then maybe we can take back control of our own future.
Jul 12, 2009 - 12:49 am 39. M. Simon:Simon’s Law:
It is unwise to attribute to malice alone that which can be attributed to malice and stupidity.
Jul 15, 2009 - 11:20 am