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Would Hillary Have Won Iowa Without Edwards?

A close look at the numbers.

August 13, 2008 - by Jeralyn Merritt
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Another question: Who would the labor unions that endorsed Edwards in mid-October, 2007 have chosen if he left the race that week? Hillary and Edwards at that time had greater union support than Sen. Obama.

Voter registration statistics and the final caucus results must be considered. As to the first, 239,000 Iowans attended Democratic caucuses, compared to 2004 total of 124,000. Many were first time voters in the Democratic caucuses.

Independents and Republicans may have propelled Obama to victory. Contrary to the Rush Limbaugh scenario that pushed Republicans to vote for Hillary, many Republicans switched to vote for Obama because they wanted to defeat Hillary.

Edwards’ early departure from the race would not have resulted in more votes for Hillary among these voters. As to election results the final numbers in Iowa were: Senator Barack Obama: 37.58% Senator John Edwards : 29.75% Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.47%

The county caucus results show Obama did great in the more populated urban areas like Des Moines, Cedar Rapids and Davenport, but together, Hillary and Edwards trounced him in the rural counties and counties with higher percentages of elderly voters.

Obama’s win in Iowa, which is 95% white, have led many to suggest that race wasn’t a factor in the caucuses. But there are indications that in some rural counties, Edwards supporters would have turned into Hillary supporters.

Obama got his biggest numbers in the counties with larger (less rural) populations that have more minorities and fewer elderly than the state wide average. Two examples:

  • In Johnson County with 116,000 people , Obama got 52% of the vote to Hillary’s 20% (Edwards got 24%.) Only 8.5% of the population is over 65 (compared to 14.6% state wide), the white population is 89.9% (compared to 94.6% state wide) and there are higher percentages of African-Americans and Asians than state-wide.
  • In Polk County, with 409,000 residents , only 11% are over 65 (14.6% state wide), the white population is 89.9% (compared to 94.6% state wide) and the African American population is 5.2% (compared to 2.5% state wide.) It’s Asian population is 3.1% (compared to 1.6% state wide) and its Hispanic population is 6.2% (compared to 3.8% state wide.)

There are similar demographic variations in Scott County, which Obama also won by a large margin. won big.

Finally, examining the entrance polls from the night of the caucuses, these numbers stick out:

  • Among Democrats, Edwards was the least favored candidate: 31% voted for Hillary, 32% for Obama and 23% for Edwards.
  • 40% of those who identified themselves as conservative voted for Edwards. With Obama being viewed as more liberal than Hillary, these voters might have chosen Hillary over Obama.
  • Only 19% had decided to support Edwards more than a month before the caucuses while 32% had decided to support Hillary and 38% had decided to support Obama.

The bottom line is that there is no way to know for sure how the race would have turned out if Edwards dropped out in October.

There are far too many variables and they go both ways — those who argue confidently that it would not have made a difference in the Obama-Hillary battle are as off-base as Wolfson was when he declared that Edwards was responsible for Hillary losing the nomination.

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Jeralyn Merritt is a criminal defense attorney in Denver, CO. She blogs at TalkLeft: the Politics of Crime.

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34 Comments

1. M.P.:

Maybe but, more importantly, I think she would have won if the Rev. Wright videos had come out before Iowa.

Aug 13, 2008 - 4:40 am 2. jeff:

The Clinton’s have got to be steaming at Edwards.

Aug 13, 2008 - 4:44 am 3. Randy:

Regardless of how hard the mainstream idiot media tried to stop it, another liberal hypocrite bites the dust!

Aug 13, 2008 - 5:06 am 4. Randy:

Absolutely MP, if the Rev. Wright story had come out a month earlier, Obama would be out of the race and sitting in Wright’s church right now, convincing himself that the only reason he lost is because we are all racists. From what I understand, since I don’t support or would even consider voting for Obama, I am a racist.

So be it

Aug 13, 2008 - 5:10 am 5. ElliotNC:

More importantly, after Edwards dropped out and was still denying the Hunter affair, he teamed up with Obama to endorse and campaign in order to stop the hemorrhaging campaign losses and reach his artificial delegate count.

What if Edwards had come clean in May, rather than endorse?

Aug 13, 2008 - 5:20 am 6. Rotwang:

Hillary seems destined to be the perpetual victim of philandering husbands — her own, and everyone else’s.

Aug 13, 2008 - 5:27 am 7. ic:

Randy: “since I don’t support or would even consider voting for Obama, I am a racist.”

Heck, saying he is skinny is also racist.

Aug 13, 2008 - 5:54 am 8. rocketeer:

Who cares?

Aug 13, 2008 - 6:34 am 9. Clyde:

The flaw in this argument is that in the caucuses, the Obama campaign massively outplayed the Hillary campaign. Hillary did much better in states where voters went to the polls, as opposed to caucusing. There’s really no reason to think that Hillary’s campaign would have done any better in gaming the caucus system in Iowa sans Edwards than they did in any of the other caucus states. Obama is the presumptive nominee because his campaign excelled at gaming the caucus system to maximum advantage.

Aug 13, 2008 - 7:23 am 10. ZEITGEIST:

[...] JERALYN MERRITT: Would Hillary Have Won Iowa Without Edwards? [...]

Aug 13, 2008 - 7:45 am 11. radical_moderate:

Oh please. Edwards was irrelevant through-out the primary season. The guy got no traction from the press and little from the voters, while Obama has been gaining traction since his speech at the Convention in 2004. He also out organized Billary who took for granted that SHE would be the nominee and not this upstart. Now if Hillary had run her latent populist, “I am you” campaign that worked so well in the Rust belt, then she probably would have prevailed over Obama. But too little too late…that is what brought down Clinton, and not the Breck Girl. I remain in awe of the navel gazing Hillary crack-pots however….

Aug 13, 2008 - 7:51 am 12. Mark:

If Edwards should have dropped out, them maybe Bill Clinton should have dropped out in 1992 when Gennifer Flowers exposed their affair. In such case both Clintons would still be in Arkansas.

Aug 13, 2008 - 8:09 am 13. always right:

Edwards’ presence did not matter.

Hillary ran a terrible campaign. PERIOD.

She only changed her tactics and recovered way too late.

Aug 13, 2008 - 8:29 am 14. koblog:

When Kos, the Globe, CNN, the LA Times and the Washington Post tell me what “would have” happened it sounds playing fantasy baseball. Emphasis on “fantasy.”

Aug 13, 2008 - 8:37 am 15. its-over:

What a load of HOGWASH, this is too funny .

As i recall when Edwards drop out… Barcak proceeded to win 10 STATES in a ROW ,what happen there? ..ROFL.

It has shown that Edwards voters support Barcak next, After all; If they were all into Clinton.. they would have voted for her in the first place. The Clintons was always view as the ELITIST, thats why they went for the lunch bucket issues that john Edwards was into. Only in the last month of the primary campaign that hillary start bringing kitchen table issues to the forefront.

Aug 13, 2008 - 9:22 am 16. Dave II:

The bigger question now is, which way will Edward’s delegates vote at the convention? I don’t think it will make much difference with the coronation of “The One”, but it will be a bloody fight if they are disillusioned with Obama (as many delegates are) and find they can’t vote for Hillary.

I often wonder, how can the country elect a candidate from a party that makes such a MESS of their nominating process???

More often than not, we don’t, and for good reason!

Aug 13, 2008 - 9:30 am 17. Terry Gain:

If HRC was even half as smart as she thinks she is Wight’s racism, Edwards’ affair and Obama’s association with Ayers etc would have been investigated and publicized at the outset of the campaign. She has only her incompetent self to blame.

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:00 am 18. rjschwarz:

If Edwards stepped down the whole infidelity meme would be in play and that has to help Hillary to some extent since she was on the wrong side of that one previously. It would have humanized her somewhat.

of course the people that would be effected by this might already have been Hillary voters.

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:03 am 19. Vivienne Avare:

Terry, you can’t see the forest for the trees!
One democrat doesn’t “smear” another. Its up to the Media etc., to spread the dirt ha! Even now, Clinton, for the Partys sake and for her political future, must promote the Rookie “0″, even though she knows the Presidency is way over his head! Her hands were tied, yet she almost caught and passed the misguided, de-lusive Straw man! The big difference with Edwards cheating and lying is he passed him
self off as a family man with moral values!

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:17 am 20. binkis:

Wolfsen is making clinton the VICTIM before the Convention…to further the cause!

Not selling but who cares now…I would bet that the clintons knew and held it in hopes that Obama picked Edwards as VP….

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:18 am 21. Vivienne Avare:

BEING RICH DOESN’T MAKE YOU AN ELITIST. OBAMA IS NOT SUPER WEALTHY BUT HE ACTS AND SOUNDS LIKE ONE! HE WON IOWA, THANKS TO THE SPOILER EDWARDS. JOHN WON 2ND PLACE BY A NOSE. “0″ WON BY DEFAULT, ALSO BECAUSE OF THE FLAWED DEMO-CRATIC SYSTEM. THE PROPORTIONAL, DISTRIBUTION OF DELEGATES AND UNREALIABLE CAUCAS PROCESS, ALL FAVORED THE STRAW MAN! ED DEMOCRAT

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:29 am 22. Mandy:

Give it up, Clintonistas! Iowa hated Hillary; she always was going to be toast there. Instead of boo-hooing, be like Randy and wallow in your racism.

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:33 am 23. Stacy:

Rotwang wrote:
Hillary seems destined to be the perpetual victim of philandering husbands — her own, and everyone else’s.
Aug 13, 2008 – 5:27 am

Exactly my thoughts.

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:39 am 24. Sandra M:

In the wee hours I read the Atlantic article and thank god she lost. I thought Bill was responsible for all the White House disorganization and chaos and indecision. Not true.

Hillary would be a terrible commander in chief. So would Obama. I have been feeling churlish towards McCain, although I planned to vote for him, but he has really impressed me with respect to Georgia, and face it, McCain knows first hand and in very painful ways all about bullies.

I emailed a protest to the trustees at Salem College in Mass. where the Edwards liars will be speaking in a month or so. Edwards got paid $50,000 for a speech at his last college gig. I never knew while in college how much all these leftists get paid to come speak to the students for a couple of hours.

If they knew, parents and students would probably put an end to the practice of paying $20,000 and up to entertain these folks.

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:53 am 25. Martyg:

I’m amazed,Bill and Hillary never make a mistake, it’s always some one is out to get them.
I’m retired and watched the election very carfully. Before the Iowa vote it was clear to me that Hillary didn’t know who she was. Changed her message every other day or more.Edward’s and Obama stayed with thier orriginal message.There were no other choices for the voter’s in Iowa, they had to vote for Obama. Edward’s meesage was weak in my opinion.

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:53 am 26. DKing:

Wolfson’s goal was to keep Clinton in the news and to that end he has succeded. I don’t think even he believes Edwards actions would have changed anything. The drama queen and her worker drones will keep it coming. Witness the “leak” of her campaign emails.

Aug 13, 2008 - 11:09 am 27. SpaceCat:

This is a ridiculous game of speculation. Essentially what this article argues is there’s no way of knowing what would have happened. What if aliens landed? Who’d have won in that particular “scenario”?

Aug 13, 2008 - 11:28 am 28. Volkmeister:

Libworld: Hillary and Bill are the greatest, smartest and cleverest politicians in history. Hillary will take the convention and dominate so much that the weakened Messiah will concede that she should be the nominee. She will step forward and accept the nomination. Four more years of Bill and Hil. Entertainment at its level best. Maybe this time we can completely dismantle the CIA, erect higher and stronger walls between FBI and intelligence, and appoint three more ACLU lawyer to the US Supreme Court. Noam Chomsky and Sol Alinsky for Ministers of Culture and Defense, respectively. Barbra Streisand for Minister of Culture and Jane Fonda for Minister of Patriotism Enforcement. I can’t wait, a socialist heaven-on-earth. Oh, I forgot, there is no heaven – that would be somewhat religious (remember, church and state). Perhaps when Hillary visits Fidel in Havana when she selects him as UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, she can ask him to place John Edwards and Al Gore in appropriate positions as Minister of Carnal Relations and Emperor of Hot Gas and Emissions, respectively. I find it amusing that democrats are always debating about who their candidates really are (as seen in the comments above). Folks, THEY don’t know who they really are. Take The One True Obama, for example. He says anything and everything that pops into his head depending upon who he’s addressing that day. What a guy! That’s what we need: a man who is everything to everyone. An “outsider” and an all-knowing expert in everything. Pure and experienced. Smart (like all Democrat politicians), yet willing to learn about stuff as mundane as nuclear proliferation and containment of rogue states – like the U.S. under George Bush. He can grovel with the best of them to the U.N. He’s John Kerry is a rockstar package. He’s hip and smart (oh, I already said “smart”). He’s the choice of Hamas, Fidel, Hugo and assorted Hollywood patriot movie stars. Hillary’s old news. Bill’s old news. We’re over them five minutes ago. We’re going for the whole enchilada: a total socialistic nirvana. The game’s afoot and Obama is leading the charge of “yes we can.” What the hell, give it up and submit to The One.

Aug 13, 2008 - 11:40 am 29. Bill Clinton:

I have always supported Sen. Obama. I always told Hillary and Chelsea to support Sen. Obama. I have never said anything even slightly negative about Sen. Obama. I have always suspected Sen. Edwards of being a sleaze. I told Hillary to steer clear of him, lest he attempt to do anything inappropriate. That’s why he stood as far away from him at the debates. He was always eyeing her, that dog. I will fight to the death for Sen. Obama, because I have always believed that he can be the best president that this counrty has ever seen since JFK, who I met once and had a great personal friendship with in 1964 and 1965, when we went sailing off his family compound in Missouri. I have alswyas loved Missouri, great “clams casino.” Well, enough about McCain. Have you donated to the greatest institution in all of mankind, the Clinton Library and Massage Parlour? Well, got to go, my personal assistant, Tiffany, is seting up a global initiative for me tonight and I got major important world peace stuff to take care of. Bye

Aug 13, 2008 - 11:53 am 30. Robert Shay:

Andrew Young of the John Edwards story: The arrests for worthless checks, DWI, burglary, criminal mischief, the federal tax lien

webofdeception.com

Aug 13, 2008 - 2:11 pm 31. Talk Left? « Media Needle:

[...] Talk Left? Then why the fuck is Jeralyn Merritt posting at Pajamas Media? [...]

Aug 13, 2008 - 6:27 pm 32. cedarford:

Good on Jerilyn Merritt, who one of many refreshing open-minded liberals out there (she does good writing at Talk Left).

“SpaceCat:

This is a ridiculous game of speculation. Essentially what this article argues is there’s no way of knowing what would have happened.

No, it is about the MSM failing to do what the Constitution envisioned when it gave the press protected status to help ensure informed voters and informed debate as voters were given important facts and arguments. And the MSM failed to do this in a way that left voters in both Parties as ill-informed about the candidates as voters in a state-controlled press tend to be.

There were three main agendas that had settled in the MSM that repeatedly arose as their bias in the 2008 campaign:

1. The War in Iraq was lost and losing 3-8 “heroes” a week made the war the most unbearable conflict in American history.

2. Steadfast media refusal to vet Obama, John McCain while attempting to mire any other candidate in any inconsistancies over long careers as “flip-floppers” something that was a MSM (and blogger) parlor game of stupid “gotcha”.
This got so bad, the MSM so deep in bed with “The Magic Black Hope” that eventually they were partially embarassed out of it by SNL and other comedy shows.
But they still didn’t vet Obama on Wright, Ayers, his radical voting record, or his and his wife’s unusual patronage jobs at U of Chicago. Not was Edwards vetted. Or Hillary’s “First Lady is really an executive leader by proxy” claims. Or their favorite Republican, McCain, who got a pass.

3. The usual MSM “horse race” and “gotcha!” and focus in minor flubs bias – led by the late, unlamented (to me, in the sense that I think political journalism is better off without him) main purveyor of it – Tim Russert.
Followed by the MSM settling on their preferred narratives for their preferred two candidates. Rock Star, race-healer, supremely intelligent and wise orator to the masses Obama. And plucky old war hero McCain, hated by the ignorant people who cling to their God, religion and guns who oppose Open Borders out of racism..All while going after looking into Romney, Huckabee, Biden, Thompson, and Dodds backgrounds with vigor.

It is hard to prove any speculation, but it is not hard to prove the media singularly failed to uncover basic facts on major candidates.

1. Obama’s 20-year association and mentoring by a black bigot.
2. Edwards affair, misuse of campaign funds, pattern of lies.
3. The Obama raised in poverty to a poor, single mother meme.
4. The brilliant head of Harvard Law Review and Senior Law Professor meme – Which ignored that Obama has never written a single law article or stood in court as lead on a single case. Both rather extraordinary things – given no other editor of a major Law School Review has ever been selected without publishing, and no Senior Lecturer in Law at any prestigious school has failed to be a distinguished Judge, a major published top law firm partner, a visiting Professor with extensive scholarship, or top former Government official who dealt with a specialized legal field (like patents, labor, maritime law, military) or administered as a top executive leader or Legislative leader. Nor was his wife the “brilliant lawyer” the MSM gushed over until he locked up the nomination. She failed her Bar exam, possibly twice, and dropped her law license after some bad years at Sidley, back in 1993 – and her high salary jobs appear to be greased by some of Obama’s billionaire backers who control the U of Chicago Board of Trustees – The Crown, Pritzker, Klutznik Families and their “retainers” brought along by their wealth and power pre-Obama, like Valerie Jarrett ( a joint Crown-Pritzker-Chicago Black Elite Project).
The qualifications of both seem to go to affirmative action – like discovery that Whaneema Naimo, head of the African Studies Department at prestigious Duke – managed to get her PhD, tenure, and Head of Department status without completing her promised PhD publication, without publishing any significant scholarly work before getting tenure or her own Department.
5. The repeated pounding in of Obama’s “legendary” speech of “stellar good judgment” against Iraq in 2002 that Hillary was mysteriously unable to effectively fight – despite Obama was just one of many making similar speeches of such “stellar good judgment” in ground as politically safe as hugely liberal Hyde Park – Castro, Yassir Arafat, Vlad Putin, Jacques de Villepin, Susan Sarandon all said the same things Obama said back in 2002.
Obama’s “courage” in opposing the War from a Hyde Park podium addressing 60 old SDS or other old counterculture peaceniks with the assent of his leftist Billionaire Families backers – was akin to touting Bush’s “courage” and “legendary good judgment” in preaching family values at various Megachurches while running for Governor in Texas.

6. Every effort was made by the MSM to gloss over what made McCain so hated by so many mainstream conservatives to focus on his Vietnam time 35-40 years ago.

Yes, at this time it is speculation.

Would the Wright tapes, and Obama’s association with radicals the MSM ignored as “outside the narrative we have to push” have sunk Obama pre-Iowa when he was billed as “moderate & racially transcendent”? Maybe.
Would the Edwards adultery scandal if fully disclosed by the MSM sitting on it since Oct 2006 have also have spilled over to Republicans determining they too wanted a “clean candidate” and knocked out McCain, back when he was down for the count on his Amnesty proposal, as well as Rudy? Maybe. Even maybe likely. Maybe even likelier that the Republicans would have shed McCain and Rudy if Edwards fell on infidelity early on, than the likelihood Hillary would have beaten Obama.

Aug 13, 2008 - 8:26 pm 33. Trochilus:

And, of course, without Edwards in the mix, who would Hillary have eventually conspired with to limit the field of Democrat candidates?

Heck, without all those people running around, Obama might have been called out earlier for having his “crib sheet” with him!

Aug 16, 2008 - 11:59 am 34. Trochilus:

You can see both the conspiracy and crib sheet issues raised here.

Aug 16, 2008 - 12:01 pm

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