Commentary held its annual dinner in New York last evening, with Gen. Jack Keane and Fred Kagan jointly delivering the Norman Podhoretz lecture — on the surge in Iraq, and related matters. A line that jumped out, from Gen. Keane – on Iran, and what might be done about its nuclear bomb program:
“We’re out of the time that we could have used to implode the regime from within.”
Experts will continue to debate whether that is true, what might be done, and so forth. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netenyahu, meeting in Washington today with President Obama, is slam up against realities that no mere debate will stop. Whether he cares to face it or not, so is Obama. And the clock ticks and ticks…
Why are the great democracies so slow to do anything that would actually stop Iran’s bomb program? Why does America carry on as if there were, well, yes, a problem with Iran’s bomb program… but no real and imminent mortal danger?
Well, here’s a thought. As it happened, my subway reading the past few days has been George Eliot’s great novel, Silas Marner — perhaps as a way to escape, while immersed in its story, into a world at least beset by different problems. But in its pages, I find the same old human problem, beautifully laid out. Silas, the miser hoarding his gold, has come to feel a a false sense of security that because for 15 years no one has stolen his treasure, no one ever will. Eliot writes:
“The sense of security more frequently springs from habit than from conviction, and for this reason it often subsists after such a change in the conditions as might have been expected to suggest alarm. The lapse of time during which a given event has not yet happened, is, in this logic of habit, constantly alleged as a reason why the event should never happen, even when the lapse of time is precisely the added condition which makes the event imminent.”
So it is for Silas, who steps out of his cottage, leaving the door unlocked, and returns to find that the event is upon him. The thief has been, and the gold is gone. So it is with the Iranian bomb, and the terrible things too likely to follow. Perhaps our policy makers in Washington should set aside the debate and the briefings and the make-believe for an evening, and try a refresher course in reality, via the fiction of George Eliot.
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39 Comments
1. Pajamas Media » Silas Marner and the Iranian Bomb:[...] Read the rest of the story here. [...]
May 18, 2009 - 10:29 am 2. Delia:*shiver*
I fear the day of using nukes is nigh and with the mentality of Islamists behind the red button there will be carnage on a scale we can’t even fathom. People who will blow themselves up to kill a handful of ‘infidels’ will hardly hesitate to kill on a much bigger, massive scale. Until that d-day happens, people will be content to believe it never can and therein lies the danger, indeed.
May 18, 2009 - 10:52 am 3. Sherab Zangpo:I fear that “our policy makers in Washington” are drunken with ideology, slumbering under a table of prejudice, prone to a radioactive-bacteriological-chemical hangover.
But I could be a pessimist.
May 18, 2009 - 10:54 am 4. Ramp Rat:ITS NOT LIKE WE DIDN’T TELL YAH LADDIE!
CHECK 6
May 18, 2009 - 12:16 pm 5. Pete:So, I take it your kids are going to sign up for this war with Iran you’re advocating?
May 18, 2009 - 12:59 pm 6. billslayer:Today Bibi says that Israel will negotiate with the Palestinians (hamas?) after they recognize that Israel has a right to exist… And Barry says that Iran is going to give up the bomb because… I guess because Barry is just so damn awesome. All in all it was a constructive meeting guys. Good luck with that!
May 18, 2009 - 1:01 pm 7. ChipD:And a coherent solution to Iran’s bomb is…..?
1. Bellicose he-man posturing (One o’ dese days, Alice, one of dese days!!! Bang! Zing!!!)
2. Invasion, occupation, and (yet more) nation-building (sign your infant sons up now- the war will still need them in 18 years)
3. Acknowledge that when a nation desires a bomb, no force on earth can relistically prevent it; all the blockades, sanctions, and wagging fingers won’t prevent it. Acknowledge that Iran is on its way to being a nuclear power and deal with them the same as we did with Stalin and Mao; containment, and Mutually Assured Destruction, combined with detente and political pressure.
Not as sexy as a lot of he-man blustering, but more effective.
May 18, 2009 - 2:58 pm 8. George Eliot and the Iranian Bomb « ACT Northern Virginia/Richmond/DC Metro Chapter.:[...] Posted in In the News at 6:04 PM by waltjr Source: Pajamas Media [...]
May 18, 2009 - 3:04 pm 9. Bill in Westchester:To Pete:
May 18, 2009 - 3:15 pm 10. macko:Yeah, your kids will sign up, or die as muslim sex slaves. Better to die in battle than to squeal like a pig as you feel your neck tendons severed by a dull knife. Shame is, we could have avoided the coming world war, but cowards like Petey’s pals helped demoralize us until it was too late. Toughen up, Petey, we may even have to draft you. Me? Been there, done that, will probably be asked to do it again…this time, guys and gals like Pete are gonna come with me, outta necessity. Pity. Sometimes, Petey, War IS the answer.
We are pushing Israel to recognize Palestine as a state. Guess what …they already have. The palestinians refuse to accept Israel and instead swear to destroy it. But we don’t push them. We don’t push them because we don’t want them to get mad. boobama wants it to look like Israel is the one that won’t cooperate. Why ? because we’re getting ready to throw Israel under the bus.
May 18, 2009 - 3:27 pm 11. Moogie:#5 Pete: Who said anything about a war?
If you have a way to stop Iran’s nuclear program, sans violence, then out with it. Send your solution to Obama so that he can include it in his policies, because he obviously either doesn’t have a clue, or he is in denial, or worse: he wants Iran to nuke Israel.
May 18, 2009 - 3:27 pm 12. Pete:So, Bill, just how many troops do you think it will require to invade and occupy Iran? How much cash will this require? Will we need a draft? Do you potentially cause the Egyptian government to be toppled? Do you potentially start a war with Russia and China over this?
Have you thought through any of these logistical issues?
Sorry, but the “oh noooze….the Muslims are coming to kill us all, we have to take them out before it’s too late” card has been played with Iraq, and the American people by and large aren’t willing to send their kids to die in yet another war.
May 18, 2009 - 3:53 pm 13. macko:Pete
May 18, 2009 - 4:41 pm 14. westerncanadian:we won’t have to send anybody to war. It’ll come to us. Iran has their nukes and will start with Israel, Pakistan is stocking up on more nukes while the Taliban is getting ready to take over, India has some and north korea does too. All we have to do is just hold out that open hand and I’m sure someone will be willing to fill it.
Now this made me smile and took me way back to 1957 when “Silas Marner” was part of grade 8 English Lit. A neat analogy Ms Rosett.
May 18, 2009 - 5:30 pm 15. American Muslim:It is time for you to accept reality. The triumph of Islam is inevitable.
Renounce your false religions. Embrace Islam now and live in peace in submission to the will of Almighty Allah (swt).
Your grandchildren will be Muslim.
Allahu akbar!
May 18, 2009 - 6:04 pm 16. Formercorpsman:No they will not.
May 18, 2009 - 7:10 pm 17. Nate:We don’t need to occupy Iran. We don’t need to send anyone there. We can turn every city in the country into a puddle of molten glass without denting our nuclear arsenal. China and Russia will accept it as a fait accompli because if they make trouble over it we still have plenty of nukes and creepy as Putin is neither country is run by madmen. We will probably lose the nuclear reduction treaties but they really only gave the appearance of increasing safety. A war between us and Russia would still exterminate humanity even with current arsenals.
May 18, 2009 - 8:09 pm 18. typos_R_us:“We’re out of the time that we could have used to implode the regime from within.”
That was always a delusion. A Theocracy is the most stable form of government. They ONLY fall thru the efforts of outside forces. I challenged those that were thinking the Mad Dog Mullahs (hereafter MDM) would be overthrown to show me a historical example of a Theocracy that was overthrown by internal opposition. That was during the Clinton administration. I thought Bush had the ‘nads for it, since the ONLY reason to invade Iraq was to gain a logistics base for the invasion of Iran.
May 18, 2009 - 8:21 pm 19. Ellen K:Then Bush wiffed.
On a positive note, the MDM won’t be able to blow more then a city or three. Frankly, as a Red Stater for life, I am of the opinion that New York getting nuked would be the best thing that could happen to the USA. No more Wall Street ( Chicago or Houston would take over), Madison Ave ( Atlanta or San Francisco). Plus the MSM would be radioactive particles drifting toward Europe.
All of those would be seen as good things by fly-over America. As a bonus (super size, sorta) the ACLU, Acorn, UN and most other Anti-American organizations would join CBS, CNN, ABC, NBC, MSNBC and the New York times in their slow journey across the Atlantic.
I get all warm and fuzzy just thinking about it.
So, yeah, lets sit around and wait for the Mullahs to either fall, or lend Hizb’Allah a bucket of sunshine to be placed under the Long Island Expressway bridge ( I forget the name of it).
The same morons that think the MDM will be overthrown by mobs armed with bricks and pitchforks think that MAD will work with religious fanatics. Considering that the Usurper doesn’t have the ‘nads to nuke anyone, there is also the small problem of which donkey to pin the tail on.
With half a dozen ‘rogue states’ having nukes and a couple of almost rogue states (demi-rogue?) having them, just who gets held responsible for the dirty deed? Nuke ‘em all? How rational is that? Nuke Iran? That just gives Mossad a good reason to do the job. Nuke Iran AND Israel? Just how much do you think Kim Il wants for a bucket of sunshine? I’ll bet with 50 Billlion and the keys to a house in the south of France, I could get several. Buy 2 get one free?
See the problem? That is why I see it as inevitable that America gets nuked in the near future ( during this administration).
Just a thought. While Iran is developing their program, India and Israel are already members of the Nuclear Club. Since India has had a border war with Pakistan for fifty years or more, then the Indian government is watching activities in the Swat Valley with itchy trigger fingers. There is no love lost there. In fact, Pakistan was loathe to remove troops from the border even when Islamabad was threatened by Taliban hoards. The best case scenario is that Israel and India sign a mutual defense treaty which would effectively “hold” either end of the Middle East. While it’s not a checkmate, it is a way to corner them. Worst case scenario is that Islamabad gets taken and India launches nukes and in the melee, Iran makes a move, causing Israel to do the same. After that, we all take sides. At any rate, the Obama administration seems intent on wringing their hands and watching from the sidelines.
May 18, 2009 - 8:41 pm 20. Oscar the Grouch:Merican Muslim
May 18, 2009 - 8:42 pm 21. Oscar the Grouch:That Allahu Akbar sounds cool man. Bet its in Hawai, yeah. I’d drink to it. Bottoms up!
Hey Merican Mooslim
May 18, 2009 - 8:45 pm 22. Oscar the Grouch:I agree renounce your falcy regions!
Hey NMerican Moos
May 18, 2009 - 8:48 pm 23. Oscar the Grouch:I’d drink to it. Heck I’d drink to anythn.
Urp!
May 18, 2009 - 8:51 pm 24. whiskey:Chip D — again more wishful thinking.
For the Israelis, the Iranians have repeated promised to wipe them out, say they will wipe them out, have attacked them for nearly thirty years, and promise the world another Holocaust.
When a man says he wants to kill you, one Holocaust survivor says believe him.
For Israel the answer is simple: WHAT will they do to live? In order for Israelis to live and not die (the Iranians have boasted they could wipe out most Israelis with “one bomb”) the Israelis MUST KILL HALF OF IRAN.
It is that simple, and that ugly. If Israel does not wipe out nearly all Iranian capacity to create nuclear weapons now and forever, the Iranians WILL KILL THEM ALL. Every last one. Just as they promised, over and over and over again.
For America, well most Democrats, ALL Liberals, nearly all Blacks and Hispanics and Gays and Women, would celebrate another Holocaust. Let’s be realistic, no one is more anti-Semitic than Blacks, Hispanics, Gays, and Women (who are nearly all hard, hard left like Bill Ayers). Obama himself would be dancing in the White House if Iran nuked out of existence 6 million Jews. One does not pray with Rev. Wright for twenty years and not pick up his attitudes.
But the challenge goes deeper for America if Jews live or die in Israel (granted, most Dems and their electoral alliance want deeply a second Holocaust). AMERICA is Iran’s enemy too, and if NYC gets nuked, Iran and Pakistan can point fingers at each other and shout legalisms, with 6 million US DEAD. Then another attack, perhaps wiping out 3 million in DC, or 2 million in Dallas, or 4 million in Atlanta.
Nevertheless terrorist sponsoring regimes that can credibly point at another with nukes is a disaster.
America, being bigger, does not have to strike pre-emptively.
But we must make our policy clear: if any US city gets nuked by persons unknown, we will WIPE OUT TO THE LAST MAN, WOMAN, and CHILD every IRANIAN AND PAKISTANI. Such policy to cease the moment either or both nations submit to on-demand inspections at will to prove they’ve gotten rid of their nukes.
NOW, tribal leaders in Pakistan who are illiterate and Jiahdi, or semi-warlord types in Iran, can decide if NYC or DC or Chicago LIVES OR DIES. Power moves down to the tribal/factional level to decide if millions of Americans will live or die.
The only way for security for AMERICA is to make those decision makers acutely aware that they can’t “get away with it” and will be wiped out to the point that no one will even speak their language anymore, if the US is attacked.
This requires both meaning it, and nuking up ourselves to a fairly massive degree. And yes, scaring the hell out of every Pakistani and Iranian low-level leader who is capable of handing over a spare nuke to a favored jihadi relative.
So SOMEONE should be made an explicit example of, very pointedly. To create “rules” … don’t nuke the Americans and live, nuke them and die along with your people.
Bottom line, nuclear proliferation means nuked American cities unless we scare the holy heck out Muslim jihadi nuclear states, and establish clear “rules” that they have to follow to live.
May 18, 2009 - 11:31 pm 25. chipper:“Negotiating with a terrorist is like arguing with a fool”
May 19, 2009 - 12:42 am 26. chipper:It is not possible to negotiate peace with an enemy that only wants war and sees that you only want peace”
May 19, 2009 - 12:45 am 27. LBC:While our ‘fabulous’ TOTUS is busy infuriating the Israelis’. His BFF’s, Ayres and Wright are pontificating about Palestine. Wow…anyone want to figure where TOTUS really stands on this? Take a wild guess.
May 19, 2009 - 7:39 am 28. Ilya:…when the rain becomes red, pain and death are sure to follow…
May 19, 2009 - 8:34 am 29. Dr. Bukk:ChipD., what about dropping bunker busters on the nuclear facilities and leaving it at that, like Israel did to Iraq?
The problem is that Obama would NEVER give a bunker buster to Netenyahu. He’d sooner give one to cousin Raila Odinga.
May 19, 2009 - 11:04 am 30. Malek Towghi:As a Baloch American citizen, what worries me most is the danger that Iran and Pakistan as a last resort will use their Islamic nukes against my homeland, Balochistan divided between Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan; and against our ethnic cousins, the Kurds, whose country is occupied by Iran, Iraq, Turkey and Syria. Iraq, Turkey and Syria will be ‘glad’ to ‘borrow’ from or allow Iran to use the nukes or any other lethal weapons against their ‘common enemy’, the Kurds.
The Baloch and Kurdish desire for freedom and unification will never die. The tyrannical Islamic mentality of the ruling classes in Muslim countries will never change. As they have done throughout the history, they will use any means to eliminate those who challenge their rule.
The Bengalis of East Pakistan now Bangladesh were fortunate that Islamabad did not possess the nukes in the early 1970s. Those familiar with Muslim mentality know well that as a last resort Pakistan would have used them against Bangladesh. I am sure that my People, the Baloch, as well as our ethnic cousins, the Kurds, will be the first victims of the Islamic nukes of Iran and Pakistan before they become a catastrophe for the whole civilized world.
By the way, and for several reasons, a united and Free Kurdistan & a united and Free Balochistan are likely to become the most sincere and dependable friends and allies of the civilized world as Israel is … obviously, if the Kurds and the Balochs reach their goal with some help from us. The civililized world including my country, the USA, Israel and India will be helping the Balochs and the Kurds if they denuclearize Pakitan and stand firm against the nuclearization of Iran. This will enhance the disintegration of these two non-reformable and artificial countries.
Given the strategic position and the vast natural resources of particularly a united and free Balochistan with a comparatively small but secular-minded and sincerely friendly population, we will not need to spend billions continuously to keep a disingenuous Islamabad with us –, and to grovel before Tehran. Also, a united, free and friendly Balochistan is the key to the solution of our problems in Afghanistan and Central Asia as well as in Iran. A free Balochistan will enhance the disintegration of remaining Pakistan. Good riddance!
Similarly, a united, free and friendly Kurdistan with a secular-minded nation will discourage the Arab world, remaining Turkey and remaining Iran to try to blackmail us from time to time.
So, united and free Kurdistan and Balochistan are the key to the solution of our problems in the region.
Malek Towghi, Ph.D. (in History of International Relations),
May 19, 2009 - 11:10 am 31. myth buster:Liaison, Baloch Human Rights International (USA)
Sure you can chipper- it’s called an ultimatum. You offer nothing except peace, and you demand everything under pain of annihilation. They take it or leave it.
May 19, 2009 - 7:39 pm 32. myth buster:You ask who will fight this war. Here I am, send me! For some reason, the Navy doesn’t want me, but if they need men to fight, I’ll happily throw on a uniform and go into battle; they need only give me permission.
May 19, 2009 - 8:07 pm 33. typos_R_us:Whiskey, the problem with MAD is it requires what Henry the K called ‘rational actors’. When one party to MAD is nutty as a Payday bar, MAD won’t work.
May 20, 2009 - 7:53 am 34. J. Rockford:Basically, you are saying that the way to stop a suicide bomber is to threaten to kill them! Think about that for a while and get back to me.
The second way to get Iran to stop building nukes is the indirect approach of nuking N. Korea.
The NPT has a clause that states nuclear powers cannot nuke non-nuclear nations. So using nukes on Iran would be a violation of the NPT. Nuking N. Korea wouldn’t be, since they have nukes. Plus we are currently in a state of war against the N. Koreans. A War that has already been authorized by the UN, so no violation of any treaties there.
Iran is building nukes because the MDM understand that they are at war with America, even if America hasn’t figured it out yet. They see the USA as a bunch of cowards and having nuclear weapons as a shield from our conventional weapons, which Muslims see as magic.
Show them that having nukes will attract our ire instead of deflecting it and then they will have a reason to stop building nukes.
Right now the MDM have no reason to stop building nukes and several reasons to continue. A couple hundred kilotons of sunshine at the Nork’s reactor site would give the MDM a real good reason to rethink their goals and methods. Not to mention getting Kim Il’s attention.
For years, Michael Ledeen called for Iranian regime change via non-violent methods. He was ignored by the Bush administration. Who knows why? It could have worked but now it is too late. I thought that Israel would take matters into their own hands before the inauguration. Still, it’s only a matter of time.
May 20, 2009 - 2:00 pm 35. Paul -Indiana:This war can be fought by pushing a few buttons.
May 21, 2009 - 5:50 am 36. Paul -Indiana:#25. In that case, the negotiator is the fool.
May 21, 2009 - 6:26 am 37. GClarke:Why is Michael Ledeen’s proposal too late? The infiltration which Iran tried into a free Iraq killed a few but did not work. The reverse infiltration, from Iraq to Iran, from freedom into the Heart of Darkness has a lot more chance of working. We know now that if Hitler had come to Russia in 1941 with roses for the Russian peasants instead of the usual knout, he probably would have been greeted as a liberator. What is different now as to Iran. We can liberate Iran without American soldiers but we cannot do it if we do not try and there is little hope of that now until we elect President Ledeen. Faster, Please, Faster, unfortunately, is the new Watchword of the Iranian Manhattan Project.
May 21, 2009 - 2:45 pm 38. Steynian 357 « Free Canuckistan!:[...] CLAUDIA ROSETT– George Eliot and the Iranian Bomb …. [...]
May 22, 2009 - 11:34 am 39. M. Report:29 Dr. Bukk Bunkerbusters ?
Too late, he cried !
See Paul of Alexandria, comment 49 in Fire Shower: North Korean tunnelers buried Iranian installations deep.
Word; Taking them out will require invasion, burrowing nukes, or, maybe, sequential Manouverable Re-entry Vehicles with _really_ good IR based terminal guidance; How deep a crater would each of those dig ?
Or, the Assassination Droids may be ready in time; Take out the top of the Theocracy, ten heads at a time, until they yield; Call it Operation Grave100.
33 typos_R_us Rational actors ?
Indeed; Apocalyptic Millenialist fanatics who expect to get an upgrade to a Skybox in Paradise if they help touch off Armaggedon will not be swayed by mundane arguments;
Jun 30, 2009 - 6:57 pmThe World is a carcass, and they are eager
to leave it. CRazy ? Well, yes. :>