In an otherwise interesting piece in Time Magazine former CIA field officer Robert Baer wrongly predicts that Europe is on the verge of waking up to the terrorist threat. He writes:
”Bin Laden should know that if he does manage a terrorist attack, the only thing he should count on is a hardening of America nad its allies’ positions. Especially in Europe. An attack there, such as the foiled plot in Germany, would sweep away European unhappiness about secret prisons and Guantanamo, once again lining Europe behind the U.S in its war against Al-Qaeda.”
If recent history is any guide, Baer overestimates a possible reaction by the Europeans in case of an attack. Back in 2002 I spoke to a former official in the Clinton administration. The offcial, who by the way is an eminent expert on Europe, expressed frustration with Washington’s European allies who were reluctant to support the Bush-administration’s doctrine of preemption in the war on terror. I am afraid, the official said, that we’ll have to witness an attack on Europe before the Europeans will come around and show any understanding of our position.
Since then Europe has been subject to several attacks, but we haven’t seen any substantial change in Europe’s attitude to the war on terror: Madrid 2004, London 2005, Glasgow 2007, the killing of Theo van Gogh on the streets of Amsterdam in 2004, cartoon riots in 2006 and several other incidents. Add to this list an unknown number of foiled plots across the continent. In the case of Spain, one may even argue that Spanish voters handed the terrorist behind the March 11 attacks a victory by electing a socialist government whose first action was to withdraw troops from Iraq.
So I don’t think Americans should look for a fundamental change in Europe’s approach even if more attacks are to follow.
Digg This
del.icio.us
PJM Home
9 Comments
huxley:Fleming — What will, if anything, change Europe’s approach?
I don’t think attacks will do it either, unless they eclipse 9-11 in ferocity. I expect (or hope) that the pressures of Muslim immigration will do the trick, but that is years away.
Sep 10, 2007 - 2:12 pm dutch1949:This article is right. The Dutch are leaving Holland at 100 to 200 thousand per year, in effect, giving up. Holland isn’t such a populous country. While this is ocurring, the birth rate in Holland is well below population sustaining levels and Muslim immigration continues virtually unabated. As one muslim cleric stated, “we will conquer them by the sword and the womb.”
Dutch
Sep 11, 2007 - 7:45 pm ic:I don’t think attacks will do it either, unless they eclipse 9-11 in ferocity.
Then they’ll blame the US for angering the Islamists against the West. They will withdraw from Afghanistan, cower under their beds, and wail against the fat bad uncouth American cowboys. It takes guts to stand up to the homicidal maniacs. Alas, the Europeans lack guts.
Sep 11, 2007 - 8:22 pm Ethan:The problem is that Europe is used to small scale attacks. The Troubles, for example, desensitized Britons to car bombs, and the ETA has terrorized Spain for years.
Europe will be awakened from the bottom up, not the top down. As more common Europeans see their towns and ways of life threatened by Islam, they will putsch back.
It will begin with race wars and end with genocides while the European parliament fiddles obliviously.
Perhaps when the Louvre is burned for being anti-Islamic, people may actually take notice.
Sep 11, 2007 - 8:52 pm David Thomson:“I am afraid, the official said, that we’ll have to witness an attack on Europe before the Europeans will come around and show any understanding of our position.”
Nope, that will unlikely accomplish anything positive. As matter of act, the odds are it will only reinforce their current attempts at self-deception. I can imagine this is what they might say:
“This attack occurred because the Americans and their allies are still in Iraq and the Israelis are still oppressing the Palestinians. We are only enduring a well-deserved ‘blowback.’ May the Muslims forgive us for our misdeeds. We are such disgusting people.”
Sep 11, 2007 - 9:20 pm Anat:Mr Rose,
While I don’t live in Europe, I frequently visit. And I get the impression that things do change as far as ordinary people are concerned, even if this is not yet shown in policies. To the best of my understanding, also the last election results in France show the same.
Don’t lose hope. Those self-indulgent self-righteous love-solves-all Che-so-sexy baby boomers are all on the verge of retirement. The next generation may well prove more soundly grounded in reality.
Sep 12, 2007 - 1:55 am lgude:While I think pessimism is always in order and that both Europe and the US will fiddle around electing slightly more right or left governments our leadership class has little stomach for dealing with the terrorists. At the same time I think ordinary people are slowly recognizing that terrorism is a real problem and that denial isn’t going to work in the long run. The people of Anbar province have recently graduated from the intensive course - the Euros and quite a few Americans will take a lot longer to wake up.
Sep 12, 2007 - 5:32 pm Will:It’s going to take a major terrorist act in several countries to wake people up.
Sep 14, 2007 - 1:59 am T Edwards:I agree. We were in York, England last year and had a chat with an older bloke about terrorism and Europe’s position on another possible attack. The response was very underwhelming when he said that, “we Europeans are tough. We can take it.”
Hmm..exactly. My follow up question, “How long will you continue to take it?” went unanswered. I think that this guy’s response says a lot about the Euro perspective on this issue.
Sep 14, 2007 - 5:10 am