Nobody aside from the original source has confirmed the story of Khamenei’s death. On the other hand, his continued absence from all official events suggests that the source may be right.
The most interesting “non-event” was the Eid. Khamenei always made a public statement, in person, on that date, but this year a statement was issued in his name. He did not appear.
Monday is the holiest day in the Shi’ite calendar. The Supreme Leader has obligations to carry out, including meetings with all foreign Islamic diplomats. If he remains missing on Monday, I think my source should be nominated for “leaker of the year.”
A note on comments: I don’t print insults, so those of you eager to find precisely the right epithet to describe me to the world can forget about it. Go write your own material.
I think it’s worthwhile to see that some folks are really upset at the very idea that Khamenei may have died–look at the comments on the last piece. And they view it as if it were a defeat for them, while his continued survival is a defeat for us. The question of truth seems to be secondary.
UPDATE (Sunday):
The Foreign Ministry has now publicly denied that Khamenei is dead.
FURTHER UPDATE (Monday morning):
It is now 9:30 on the East Coast, which I think is 5 PM in Iran. So far as I know, Khamenei has not made any public appearance today, not even a tv broadcast. The regime has made various contradictory announcements, and released a photograph that could have been taken anywhere at any time.
Meanwhile, I have been told by regime officials that many activities are blocked because they require formal approval from Khamenei and he has not provided any for 5-6 days now.
So if he is not dead, he’s doing a fine imitation, let’s say.
STILL MORE: AP SAYS KHAMENEI SPOKE IN QOM TODAY
http://www.breitbart.com/news/2007/01/08/D8MH63NG0.html
This story, as you can see, says that Khamenei spoke from a balcony, however the photograph does not show that. The quotations seem old to me, and do not refer to the date today, namely the anniversary of the day on which Mohammed proclaimed Ali to be his rightful sucessor. It is therefore perhaps the most important date in the Iranian Shi’ite calendar.
Further, the journalist reporting the event–at which, on his account, hundreds of people will present–does not seem to have been there. He quotes “an AP photographer” saying that Khamenei coughed a couple of times but otherwise seemed to be in good health.
I am told that BBC Persian language service also reports that Khamenei is still alive, although I don’t have any further details.
The source who provided the original information of Khamenei’s death has not responded to repeated telephone calls over the past three days.
If the AP story is correct, then obviously my source was wrong and I have been gulled. If so, it will not have been the first time, error being the most common human accomplishment. I hope to have more information shortly.
MORE INFORMATION
I spoke to some Iranian friends in Europe who have spoken to people in Tehran (not Qom, Tehran). They say that there is no credible first-hand account of Khamenei speaking in public today, and they add that there is no photograph evidence of such an event, which would seem to be pretty easy to provide (for that matter, you’d think they could manufacture such “evidence” wouldn’t you? I would). They say there is nothing on Iranian tv showing Khamenei actually speaking, and they say that the “AP photographer” has not been identified to their knowledge. They believe that the tv broadcast of today is a montage, not real coverage.
There is one point that might get lost in all the excitement, which is political. I have no dog in this fight. I am not “rooting” either for Khamenei’s death or good health. I am trying to get this right, because it might be important, it might have consequences for the future of Iran and our own future. Of course, it also might not. If Khamenei is dead, the chances are that the regime leaders will fight it out and name a successor, and the oppression of the Iranian people and the war against the West will continue apace.
Which is what matters most.
STILL MORE: KHAMENEI’S WEB SITE WITHDRAWS CLAIM OF QOM EVENT
This came from Iran Press News, so far only in Farsi, soon in English (in the last graph):
According to AFP from Tehran, in a statement on Monday, January 8th
Khamenei spoke about the Islamic regime’s nuclear program, he said: “The
Islamic republic will never forgo it’s rights to use nuclear energy.”
Rejecting the UN Security Council resolution 1737, Khamenei added: “None of
the regime’s officials have the right to change their minds on the matter
either.”
Khamenei declared that the Islamic Republic’s gaining access to nuclear
technology is “a matter of pride for all Muslim countries”.
AFP wrote that the U.N. Security Council Resolution 1737 has constituted
various penalties against Tehran’s regime should they refuse to suspend
uranium enrichment.
Tehran’s regime has been given a 60-day deadline to respond to the UN
Security Council’s appeal to stop its uranium enrichment activities.
Khamenei’s speech was broadcast in excerpts via various reports from the
Islamic regime’s own media.
Also on Monday, which coincided with the biggest Moslem ceremony, Eid’eh
Fetr, some regime-run news agencies such as Fars and Mehr reported of
Khamenei speaking among residents of the city of Qom; however conspicuously
missing from these reports was film footage from such an important event and
minutes after the reports were broadcast by the Islamic regim’s media, the
claim of such gathering was deleted from Khamenei’s own site. There have
also been no eye witnesses to such a gathering either.
BOTTOM LINE?
An Iranian called me from Tehran to say two things: there was no ceremony in Tehran today, for the first time in Khamenei’s tenure. Unlike all previous years, he did not receive the ambassadors from the Islamic countries. Most people in Tehran believe Khamenei is either dead or incapacitated. The second thing: he thinks Khamenei is hanging on, but for all practical intents and purposes he is finished. So he’s politically dead.
It’s not easy to get information–especially when it is bad for the regime–from a totalitarian state that has shut down most independent media. You can see from the comments, and from the news coverage, that the state of Khamenei’s health is a mystery, just as the state of the tyrant’s health is a mystery in Havana. Even in a wide-open society like ours, health is a closely guarded matter. Tim Johnson? Or Ronald Reagan? We learned long after the fact that Reagan was far closer to death after the failed assassination attempt than anyone let on at the time.
So I think we at Pajamas should receive full credit for discovering that Khamenei’s health was very grave, and we–I in particular–should have expressed more doubt from the outset about the account of his death, as I did once I found it impossible to verify the story.
Which may yet turn out to have been true. But still…
I am told by a US Marine of my close acquaintance that the quote about “how can they tell?” is not from Mencken, but from Dorothy Parker.
Finally, many thanks to all those who commented (and please don’t stop), especially those who understand how deceptive the Iranian regime can be. No thanks to those who cluttered up the blogosphere with insults, most of which were not published.
PJM Home
Accomplice to Evil: Iran and the War Against the West
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90 Comments
1. drellberg:The sport in this is both telling and fun. If Ledeen is right, what does this say about everyone else? Ledeen said some time ago that OBL had just died, and no one else reported it. (OBL’s not been heard from since, so Ledeen just might be right.) So maybe there is no way the truth will ever come out. But Iran’s Supreme Leader’s absence will be more telling, so I think we actually will get to the truth, and reasonably soon.
Jan 6, 2007 - 10:43 am 2. Hamid:Dear Mr. Ledeen,
I am Iranian and became so happy to hear about this news even unconfirmed!
Jan 6, 2007 - 10:45 am 3. SOMEONE:If it is true then I’m glad that the world has opened up its new year with two good news; that is, getting rid of two bloody dictators:saddam and khamenei.
What is the difference of “DEAD” or “ALIVE” leader, especially in country like Iran? I do believe that, policies of state will never change after or before Supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei.
Even his presence is better than any other one, especially Grand Ayatollahs Jannati, Rafsanjani or Mesbah Yazdi. So I do hope that he will be alive and healthy enough to be s he was!
Jan 6, 2007 - 1:23 pm 4. Ardavan:The islamic republics broadcasting n said right now that a rumor spread around by the “zionist” writer, Michael Ledeen, about that Khamenei is dead. But that is not throudh and on monday morning, Khamenei will attend to a meeting.
sincerely
Ardavan
ardavan@aryamehr.org
http://www.aryamehr.org
ML:
Right. Instead of denying it, why doesn’t he just walk over to the window and wave?
I am quite prepared to believe my source was wrong–it happens–but this sort of thing is not at all convincing. Maybe it will turn out to be like the time someone told Mencken that Coolidge (or some other president, I can’t ever remember) was dead, and he said “how can they tell?”
That Khamenei is terribly sick is well established, and I certainly had that one right. I am less confident in this source, but we will know on Monday if not before.
Jan 6, 2007 - 1:34 pm 5. Bryan:Since he has not showed up for Eid’s speech it is very making sense. We should wait for the second Eid which is on Monday. If he does not appear, it will be automatically confirmed. Anyhow, sooner or later he will die. What is more important is the region’s future. As an Iranian I think we should tie to Isreal and make our relationship as strong as possible. Iran should be declared as the second land for jews.
Jan 6, 2007 - 2:48 pm 6. Sam Thornton:Michael, I think you’re missing the point here. You’ve been around long enough to understand the ramifications of publishing a single-source story without at least some corroborating evidence. Methinks you’ve shot yourself in the foot.
ML:
Well, I’ve always said that the point was not the number of sources, but their accuracy. I can get you multiple sources in Washington for most anything you want “proven.”
I try hard, and there is plenty of peripheral evidence for the claim that he died, such as K’s failure to appear for the Eid, the first time in all his years as Supreme Leader.
The rumor of his death had been percolating in Tehran well before I decided to publish it, and ever since, as you can see, I and my colleagues at Pajamas have taken great pains to provide conflicting claims, doubts, and so forth.
And we’ll continue to do that, precisely because neither I nor my colleagues have any desire to drill holes in our feet, as you way.
Jan 6, 2007 - 2:53 pm 7. Darius:Hello dear Mr.Ledeen
I am from Iran and if the news be true I will be praying for you and your family for atleast 20 years every night . The next one might be more moderate and Iranians might get their deserved freedom as soon as possible .
ML:
Prayers are always welcome, and I am praying for freedom in Iran too.
Jan 6, 2007 - 4:02 pm 8. a Duoist:If the Ayatollah Khameini is dead or incapacitated, when and which Assembly of Experts picks the successor: the pro-Ahmadinejad Assembly still in place, or the pro-Khameini Assembly recently elected?
Jan 6, 2007 - 4:04 pm 9. ransom:i long for the day iran is free and i can go and dance on the grand ayatollah’s grave. . .
Jan 6, 2007 - 4:12 pm 10. kianosh:as you have mentioned we have to wait till monday.the regime will publish his possible death news little by little. First they will broadcast Koran verses form the Tv and radio
Jan 6, 2007 - 4:18 pm 11. Bryan:Then they will ask the nation to pray then they will anounce his death..Patience is the key and the regime has reamined completley silent.calm before the storm
One reason that they postpone his death annoncement is that they do not want it to be close to Saddam’s execution and death. Two dictators’ deaths in just one week! That’s so interesting.
Jan 6, 2007 - 4:23 pm 12. Alireza:That is a bad news for some people in Iran, and of course a very good news for many!
As human beings we cannot hope for anyone’s death even for criminals like Khamenei or Saddam.
Also we should not forget that death of a person like Khamenei will not change anything in general. Even ayatollah khomeini’s death didn’t change anything. Because the system is stablished so strongly and is supported by Europeans.
In addition, there are tons of dirty mullahs (and non mullahs like ahmadi nejad) who are ready to take the power and continue the system.
Anyway, if this news is true, it will make many people sooo happy which is really good
Fall of dictators is always a joyful news!
Thanks
Jan 6, 2007 - 4:32 pm 13. drellberg:I love this sort of drama! Who knows what’s really going on inside Iran, Ledeen or the knuckleheads in the MSM? There’s only 1 report I know of re: K’s death (and I’ve been looking), but the source is credible enough that the Iranians feel the need to deny it. And UPI, in a pathetic effort, calls up Iran’s UN Ambassador who, suprise!, denies the report.
Link here:
http://www.upi.com/InternationalIntelligence/view.php?StoryID=20070105-122356-8351r
\
I’d give pretty good odds that Ledeen is right.
Jan 6, 2007 - 4:55 pm 14. Maxim:The only good mullah is a dead mullah. Choulag Ali gedaa, the supreme dictator, is “dead”, meaning both literal death, that is extinction, and a figurative death, that is a restricted life on the mercy of medical life-support with little chance to continue oppressing the good people of Iran.
Jan 6, 2007 - 6:11 pm 15. Manouchehr:Cheers,
Maxim
Dear Mr Ledeen,
I sincerely hope that your source has got it right. Khamenei’s inevitable demise will ultimately weaken the Mullah’s regime further. Not all Mullahs are quite ready for confrontation and martyrdom specially now that they have found paradise in this world.
The succession process has the potential to be the begining of the end for the Islamic Republic. What a great way to start 2007.
Faster please!
Jan 6, 2007 - 6:31 pm 16. Ali:This is becoming quite a story. By rumor it is said that the next supreme leader will be Ayatollah Shahroodi, the head of justice in Iran, who was born in Iraq. Otherwise it will not be one person but a council. By any means the next will be a moderate compared to khamenei.
Jan 6, 2007 - 7:04 pm 17. Winston:personally I think, if he does pass away and a moderate is in his place, the US will probably wait to see what happens and a war might be averted, otherwise we will be moving towards war
Still nothing on Iranian media about Khamenei and he has not been seen since december 24th, 06.
If he doesn’t re-appear on monday, it means that he is having a good time up in the hell.
Jan 6, 2007 - 10:07 pm 18. Hamed:I strogly agree with Bryan.
Jan 6, 2007 - 11:20 pm 19. Darius:Iran is the host of largest population of jews in the Middle East after Israel and should be the best friend of Israel as well.
The importance of this friendship should be shown to Iranian people by their common enemies: Arabs and Islam!
However Khamenei’s death will not have much effect and won’t be a cause of main changes in Islamic Republic policies, the lack of dictator is so welcomed by most Iranians.
The question is: who is going to be the next dictator of Iran?
Hi again
Jan 7, 2007 - 3:15 am 20. Carlos:I think he is waiting in a line to get his ration of 40 (not sure about it ) virgins or maybe playing backgammon with Saddam and consuming some opium because of long journey he had . I hope God do not forgive you and your master Khomeini .
Michael, I expect next monday.But what about the possible next “Supreme Leader”.
ML:
Probably Rumsfeld. He’s now available.
Jan 7, 2007 - 10:03 am 21. Alireza:Faster, please!
Jan 7, 2007 - 2:50 pm 22. Arash:More news here.
Jan 7, 2007 - 3:42 pm 23. Winston:Now a few of Persian language media have started taking this story up. BBC Persian is saying that if he doesnt appear on monday then these rumors will become more concrete.
Jan 7, 2007 - 4:15 pm 24. azadi:Mhm, well I believe he is severely ill… but to believe he is dead i would like to see his corpse… with Iranian government nobody knows for sure. Well, next question: who will be the next? I just hope it won´t be Taghi Meshbah Yazdi.
ML:
He is certainly very ill. I know that senior officials have been waiting for days for instructions from him, and none has arrived. We’ll know later today. If he does not appear, then my source will probably have been right (although Khamenei could be so sick he can’t get out of bed, nonetheless).
As I said earlier, we may be in a situation where it’s very hard for anyone to tell if he’s alive…Mencken had that great line, remember? How can they tell?
Jan 7, 2007 - 5:40 pm 25. Mohammad:Michael,
I personally think the world would be a better place without Khamenei, but I’m not sure what will happen after his death and who will replace him. The sad truth is that many people who are in the position of replacing him (e.g., Ahmadinejad’s camp) are even worse than him.
What is your analysis of what could happen if Khamenei dies this year?
ML:
Yes, you are right. Things are never so bad they can’t get worse. He has been a monster, but perhaps there are worse monsters waiting to succeed him.
Nobody knows what will happen when he died, and it’s clear that he is dying. The interesting thing is that the power struggle is going on now, yet nobody is analyzing it.
Jan 7, 2007 - 6:03 pm 26. Hamid:Dear Mr. Ledeen,
I just wanted to point out that in Iran even discussion about the health of Khamenei now is banned. No newspaper and any media can discuss about it. The fact that some government officials say that this tyranny of our time (khamenei) is still in good condition does not mean anything. They are afraid of many things now: the country is in turmoil and there is more wolrd pressure on their ambision than any time before. It is possible that several days later this dictator will show up and waive hands but I have no doubt that he is seriously in bad health condition because of his abscence in important events and hopefully will die soon and we Iranian which deserve freedom along with all free mind people in the world can celebrate at least for the fact that the number of world worst dictators have decreased one more after saddam!
Jan 7, 2007 - 8:15 pm 27. Pakdin:Dear Michael!
Jan 7, 2007 - 9:16 pm 28. Steve Schippert:It is a quarter to 6:00 here in Iran, and I havent slept the night, just to see if he shows up this morning! If he doesnt, you are the man of the year to me! The man of the 21st centry. Those who think nothing will change with his death, do not know Iran at all. What do you say, people are ready to congratulate one another on it! This will be a major change, and maybe in less than a year’s time we will have Shakira performing live in Tehran!
P.S. At least let me enjoy this dream for the remaining couple of hours!! OH SANTA, PLEASE LET IT BE TRU!
Miceal! U ready to be the man of the year??!!
Funny thing, your note on comments and attitudes toward the Iran news.
In response to our “Achieving Victory In Iraq” report, one comment sent my way was that I had obviously graduated from the Michael Ledeen School of Middle East Diplomacy (Momma would be so proud) – since our report clearly called for acknowledging and aggressively addressing without apology Iran’s active role as an enemy in (and of) Iraq, let alone its role in terrorism elsewhere.
If acknowledging Iran’s ongoing war against the United States since 1979 makes me such a ‘graduate,’ so be it, I suppose. That my views pre-date familiarity with you and your work are of no significance. Silly details.
However, for the record, if the Good Doctor could please send the official degree on fine parchment ASAP to add to my credential board, it sure would help clear things up.
ML:
Do they still issue degrees on fine parchment? I thought PETA had put a stop to that…everything in plastic, hoHO.
Jan 7, 2007 - 10:48 pm 29. Winston:It’s 10:45 am in Tehran and last time I checked Khamenei has not yet delivered his Eid speech yet. I’ll keep you posted!
Jan 8, 2007 - 1:45 am 30. h.m:Dear Micheal,
I would like to inform you about latest updates. Despite the fact that he has not appeared yet( today is monday at 11:50 a.m) which could be a good sign, the official website of Khamenei published a news marquee around 10 a.m that he will have a public ceremoney with the people tomorrow. But now they changed the marquee. Maybe this is a regular change or maybe not.
Jan 8, 2007 - 3:34 am 31. H.M:Dear Micheal,
I think something happened.Around 12:10 p.m today ( monday) Farsnews agency published a headline on its main page about public ceremony of Khamenei. The link to news itself contianed a brief report about it and 2 photos from him ( which in them the people could not be seen). Around 1 p.m first they removed the report from their website and a few minute latter the headline from their main page. It is really strange. I hope that there will be good news.
Jan 8, 2007 - 5:19 am 32. Maximus:Lets assume that the news is right.
Our main players to replce him will be Rafsanjani or Mesbah Yazdi.
There might be other people but for the sake of argument lets concider the two most powerful ones.
In the case of Rafsanjani, there will be a huge conflict of interest for the Iranian people and the west.
As Rafsanjani will step down the nuclear threat and hold on to the power and survivle of IR the west will enjoy lucrative deals while the Iranian people will sufffer as they habe done undet the past 28 years. As you all know the humanright issued tend to vanish as soon as the interest of the west is not threatened.
So RAfsanjani is good for west bad for Iranian people. Iam sure the west with all its contacts will try to have rafsanjani in place.
If Mesbah Yazdi or any other honest IR offcials come to power the do not tend to make up the truth and they say what is on their mind. In that case hopefullt the west will ralize that attacks on site will not help and the only way is to remove the regime.
Lets hope that Mesbah Yazdi come to power,so either the Iranian people will be free or the the whole world will feel how it is to have IR in charge!
Jan 8, 2007 - 6:16 am 33. Amir:Here you can see Khamenei’s show up: http://www.irna.ir/fa/news/view/line-3/8510182291143846.htm
Dear Ledeen it means that your source was not good or what? Is he a double in this pictures? I dont think so and as i see in Iran’s TV it was ill but not in grave condition.
Jan 8, 2007 - 6:45 am 34. ali:the latest photo of ayatollah.
monday jan 8th, 2007
http://www.mehrnews.com/mehr_media/image/2007/01/243174_orig.jpg
Jan 8, 2007 - 7:16 am 35. Anat:Michael,
Jan 8, 2007 - 7:31 am 36. DELL:Having seen the “new” photos of Khamenei posted today
http://news.search.yahoo.com/search/news?ei=UTF-8&p=Khamenei&datesort=1&c=images&b=11&fr=sfp&c=images&b=1
I am almost convinced you are right. Just look at that neutral blue background with Photoshop Lighting Effects, especially in this one:
http://news.yahoo.com/photo/070108/ids_photos_wl/r864481380.jpg
You can reproduce it yourself. Put an old picture into photoshop, isolate the figure, put it against the background of a new layer of a single colour, and on the background layer go: filter > Render > Lighting Effects.
Have fun.
OMG..Michael,guess what dude????Your “mole” sucks!Dude,Ayatollah Khamenei is alive and even made a public appearance and he totally said that Iran aint gonna be bullied into giving up its nuclear rights.So get new sources to find out the news-your blog isn’t all that reliable.Im sorry all your “reformist anti Iran Iranians” have to be so disappointed now that the Leader showed his face.
Jan 8, 2007 - 7:50 am 37. Ali N:Nowadays you neo-con “hawks” are rather reminding me of vultures; impatiently waiting for someone’s death to come, while joyfully fantasizing about what piece of the meat will be yours!
Jan 8, 2007 - 8:06 am 38. Vahid:he is alive! you’d better change your source!!!
Jan 8, 2007 - 8:08 am 39. an iranian:the ISlamic Republic TV told that Ayatollah took part in a garthering in the holy city of Qom (south of tehran) but showed him in his home in tehran.
Jan 8, 2007 - 8:32 am 40. torobche:He is not dead, according to BBC Persian.
Jan 8, 2007 - 9:31 am 41. El Jefe Maximo:This guy may be the new Francisco Franco (of the old SNL skit days) — “It’s Day X and Ali Shah is still dead.”
ML:
Yes, Franco took a very long time to admit he was dead.
Jan 8, 2007 - 9:58 am 42. Reza Nasri:These “sources” are probably the same people who show Mr. Ledeen footages of executions from the 1980s and tell him “it happened yesterday”. Or the likes of Fakhravar who have spent a couple of months in jail for petty crimes and have somehow managed to convince these “experts” at the AEI that they’ve been “important political prisoniers”.
No! Mr. Ledeen. He’s pretty much alive:
http://www.isna.ir/Main/PicView.aspx?Pic=Pic-857732-1&Lang=P
ML:
He may indeed be alive, although he is certainly not very much alive. The best case for him is that he is hanging on, albeit gravely ill. And photographs like this not only do not prove he is alive, they increase suspicion that he is not. As I have been saying for several days, all he has to do is walk to the window and wave, at which point I will denounce my source and apologize for wasting your time.
But he hasn’t done anything like that, so far as I can tell.
Jan 8, 2007 - 9:58 am 43. Great Khan:Mr. Ledeen,
I am wondering do you know any of the Middle Eastern languages such as Farsi or Arabic?
Thanks.
ML:
No. I figure that’s why the Almighty created translators. I don’t speak Chinese or Greek either, btw.
Jan 8, 2007 - 10:14 am 44. Alireza:Torobche,
BBC never said he is alive. They said it was denied by officials.
Also they said he appeared in the TV (without mentioning that whether it was a live program or not)
I am not telling he is alive or dead but please be careful about what you read and what you see. Especially about BBC, they are the worst in using deformed sentences (of course they do it purposely).
Jan 8, 2007 - 10:38 am 45. Marzi:One way to figure out if he is really alive might be to check out the photos available on the web that were actually taken during his appearance today, and by journalists from reliable sources such as Reuters, etc.
Jan 8, 2007 - 10:40 am 46. Anat:Now honestly.
Jan 8, 2007 - 10:51 am 47. Great Khan:Please compare
A picture published today
http://media.farsnews.com/Media/8510/ImageReports/8510180104/31_8510180104_L600.jpg
To one published by Hotair in April 2006. Scroll down on the following link:
http://hotair.com/archives/2006/04/27/iran-to-un-get-bent/
Note the clothing, the Kefiyah and even the shape of the microphones.
Isn’t it the same occasion?
Mr, Ledeen,
In light of the images of Khamenei alive on yahoo news and an article in International Herald Tribune, what is your present estimate of life or death of the Iranian regime leader? As mentioned by a previous post, even BBC Persian confirms Khamenei is alive and well enough to deliver a speech.
It might be the case that he is ill but has pushed himself (with the possible aid of doctors pumping him with drugs) to appear for ten to twenty minutes to give a talk to a carefully selected audience. But then if he were seriously ill, he should have appeared in Tehran where he would be near the hospitals and doctors, not in Qom.
The pictures show him wairing more than one scarf, which are not part of the clerical attire, which he should not to wear in his well-heated office in Qom (that is where he supposedly met the audience). He is perspiring rather profusely. He reportedly caughed a few times.
The way it seemed it in Mehrnews pictures to me, he did not particularly look very excited or happy at all. Remember, this is the Eid of Ghadeer. If anyone knows Shiism intimately knows how happy a day Ghadeer is. Specially Qom being a religious city, people explode with festivities and celebrations. Yet neither Khamenei nor his audience have the joyful looks a common Shia would evince on such a day.
It is also interesting that according to the BBC Persian, he warned against secterian difference between Shias and Sunnis on the day of Ghadeer, saying “the enemies want to exploit Ghadeer” to create strife between the two sects.
Anyone who knows Ghadeer knows how secterian in nature this festivity is. For him to come to Qom and say that Ghadeer should not promote difference between Shi’as and Sunnis is nothing less than an insult and slap on the face of the traditional Shia clerical establishment. The relationship of pro regime clerics with the traditional clergy, who are the vast majority of clergy by the way, has remained quite unnoticed to the outside world. One of the key objectives of the regime since its inception has been to win the support of the Sunni masses. The regime has doubled its efforts in this regard after Ahmadinejad came to office. Khamenei’s reported statement that Ghadeer should not be allowed to create division between Shi’a and Sunni is an assertion in line with this policy of courting Sunnis. However, this means compromising Shi’a theological doctrines of Imamate. In the eyes of traditional Shi’a clergy, the Grand Ayatollahs who are rarely known in the outside world, Khomeini and more than him Khamenei would readily compromise on core Shi’a principles–if he could get away with it–to court Sunnis and to promote regime’s influence in the Sunni world. One such central element of Shi’a theology is Ghadeer. And Khamenei’s statement not to let Ghadeer divide Muslims equates in fact to discourage observing Ghadeer.
Thanks.
Jan 8, 2007 - 11:20 am 48. Ehsan:strangely enough all the state run sources like mehrnews say he met some of Qom’s people seemingly in Tehran!!
also you should notice that some of the audience are holding signs with this written: “today is the day Islam got a new life”
cheers
Ehsan
Jan 8, 2007 - 11:36 am 49. Great Khan:Mehr News pictures:
http://www.mehrnews.com/fa/NewsDetail.aspx?NewsID=431806
http://www.mehrnews.com/fa/NewsDetail.aspx?NewsID=431807
http://www.mehrnews.com/fa/NewsDetail.aspx?NewsID=431817
Couple things worth noting:
Those who are familiar with religious celebrations know that at these occasions an Ayatollah just does not walk to the podium and start talking.
When an Ayatollah enters the hall, he greets the audience and takes a seat. Then a number of poets and maddaahs (vocalizers) recite religious poetry.
Ordinarily, an Ayatollah does not even speak on these occasions. He simply observes and participates in the celebrations. But if he has to speak (although I have never seen a Grand Ayatllah, a rank Khamenei claims, speak on the occasions of religious festivities), it would be after the poetry and all the vocalizations.
Let’s say Khamenei had to speak to prove that he is alive. Nevertheless, he must be seriously ill not to sit and observe poets recite poetry. Because if there had been any of maddaahs reciting, they would have definitely been in the pictures. Instead, Khamenei comes in, makes gestures with his hand, sits down, gives a quick talk to an audience that is carefully selected and then leaves. If the pictures are true, and he actually did appear to the audience, the chances are he is seriously ill.
Jan 8, 2007 - 11:37 am 50. Ardavan:The islamic republics TV channels, have shown Khamenei today… But.
1. Khamenei was shown while talking about the iranian nuclearprogram. Very strange because this is Eid Al-ghadir.
2. Not once. Pleasme pay attention, NOT ONCE, was the camera moved from Khameneis face to show the people sitting and listning to him as they always did, to show us in the iranian opposition how much support he has.
3. One very funny thing is that when they showed Khamenei come in, he had a green scarf, but while talking, he had a white palestina scarf…
Death to the islamic republic
Long live the Shah
http://www.aryamehr.org
Jan 8, 2007 - 11:48 am 51. Great Khan:ardavan@aryamehr.org
Ehasan has a point. The pictures are supposed to be from the hall in his office in Qom,located in Safaiyyah. But as I remember, that hall was small. It had a balcony, but not it did not look like the one in these pictures. Unless, they have changed the dimensions of the hall and redesigned the balcony in the last few years, these pictures are not from Qom.
Also previously when he went to Qom, the whole city would shut down for the entire duration of his trip. Specially the Safayyiah road, which is the main road in the city, would be blocked to traffic. They would put huge celebrations for his coming to the city. There would be banners on all roundabouts and all major buildings. I have not seen any report of his coming to Qom and celebrations of his visit in the Iranian media. And I read them closely.
Now this is very important to note: usually, he would give an address at the Shrine or Faziyya seminary or both. A few years ago, he spoke to the public at the Shrine and then gave another speech at Faiziyya to the clerics and religious students.
Ghadeer is very important. Khamenei could have had the biggest crowd at the Shrine of Syedah Masoomah, where pilgrims would be coming for Ghadeer celebrations from towns as far as Shiraz and Isfahan. It would have been the best venue for him to speak. Yet he did not choose to speak there. It is very out of character for him to be in Qom on the day of Ghadeer and instead of appearing at the Shrine of Bibi Masoomeh to literally tens of thousands of people, something he has shown to enjoy throughout his years in power, to a small group of people supposedly at his office.
Sounds fishy to me.
Jan 8, 2007 - 12:03 pm 52. Arash:Great Khan,
Jan 8, 2007 - 12:03 pm 53. Arash:Your narration of the story does not match what goes on Iran. I assume you are trying to describe what has happened based on the tradition in Pakistan or some other Muslim country.
More pictures of the event.
Jan 8, 2007 - 12:04 pm 54. Iranian:slower please!!!
Jan 8, 2007 - 12:29 pm 55. Ehsan:this was definitely in Tehran
Jan 8, 2007 - 12:54 pm 56. Arash:Video is also available.
Jan 8, 2007 - 1:22 pm 57. Amir:Dude:
Jan 8, 2007 - 2:17 pm 58. Gerard Van der Leun:He is still alive
Two video segments. Seem to be from two different cameras (Note railing in second link) Crossfades to a crowd. No establishing shot.
Video one:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pNrZ6U5Sc_8
Video two
Jan 8, 2007 - 2:31 pm 59. etienne:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SbgE-qEMjpI
I say he’s dead. And I say Professor Plum brained him in the conservatory with a lead pipe.
Jan 8, 2007 - 2:59 pm 60. ferdose:I am iranian and i can say that something strange happened these days, i dont think khamenei is dead but either i dont think that todays speach broadcast was true, for example he didnt mention anything about saddam execution or mainly discussed about blair effort to mobalize region against iran. we know that it was matter of two weeks back.
Jan 8, 2007 - 3:00 pm 61. Ardavan:Latest news on Khamenei:
He has suffered a stroke and 2 german physicians have been taken to Iran.
My blog in Swedish are continiously beeing updated on this matter.
Sincerely
Ardavan
ML:
Sounds like the Debka story.
Jan 8, 2007 - 3:06 pm 62. Chris:Mr. Ledeen,
If Khamenei did die, they are likely to conceal the fact until they’ve figured out how to deal with it. They do not want to show a vacuum of power of any sort in these days in Iran. What if the people decided to rise up in this vacuum? Its dangerous for the ruling Mullah’s to show weakness these days.
And OBL very well may have died, remember that enormous funeral in Afghanistan full of militants that we missed bombing? Someone important was in the ground there… the word is our ROE wouldn’t allow the cemetary to be bombed (killing approximately 200 al-Qaeda/Taliban terrorists). The military said that the plane couldn’t get there soon enough.
This Khamenei situation sounds like the mystery around Ariel Sharon as well, he died, no he didn’t, he is hanging on, his condition is worsening, its surprisingly improving, its worsening. Now, has anyone heard of Sharon finally passing on? Its been a black hole for a very long time. I think he did die and they’re not telling anyone.
Jan 8, 2007 - 3:38 pm 63. Alireza:Is this really the movie?
The funny thing is that they are still saying “Death to Betrayers and Saddam”
Why Saddam? may be they are not aware that he is already in hell, he he he…
Thanks for the movie
ML:
They say it’s the movie. I don’t think so.
Jan 8, 2007 - 3:57 pm 64. Alireza:And thank Gerard, he found it.
Yes, it is exactly the same thing. His words are exactly same as what they have mentioned in the news. Talking about arabic governments, etc.
And yes, the crowd is saying:
DOWN WITH BETRAYERS AND SADDAM!
Of course, it still doesn’t mean anything since I am sure there is no one in the crowd with an IQ of more than 80 – he he he…
So, they could simply say it as a habbit.
Jan 8, 2007 - 4:16 pm 65. skip:Let’s contrast this event with the events surrounding the passing of John Paul.
On his death bed the Pope waved to an admiring crowd. His basic theme: “Do not be afraid” was clearly the driving force for his last few days.
Now we have mystery surrounding the status of another prominent man of faith. The difference between the two situations cannot be more stark.
Jan 8, 2007 - 4:53 pm 66. Carlos:Michael, a saw the update videos on Khamenei talking today.Okey, its confused or maybe the news about the Saddam death runs to late in Iran.
ML:
There was dancing in the streets of Iran when Saddam’s death was announced…
Jan 8, 2007 - 5:08 pm 67. tofubo:thanks for not posting my earlier reply
i knew i should have put profanity in it, that way there would be an actual excuse not to run it
ML:
well you just blew your second chance. jeez.
Jan 8, 2007 - 5:59 pm 68. crosspatch:This could all be smoke designed to put jitters in the oil market to get the price back up. I noticed Iran made a threat today to close the Straits of Hormuz if the West went forward with any additional sanctions.
It could be designed simply to cause an emotional reaction in the oil markets. Iran must be feeling a bit of a pinch with $56 oil compared to what they were raking in last summer when prices were around $75 a barrel for most of July.
Iran would be losing about $75 million PER DAY or around $2-1/4 billion a month compared to what it was making last summer. That has to hurt and if they can raise the price simply by “leaking” news items, that’s easy money.
ML:
A happy thought, to be sure. But I doubt there is much of a pinch at this level; I think it has to get down to around $30 before they really hurt.
Jan 8, 2007 - 6:41 pm 69. Ali again:Michael, if you are right, you will be the bearer of bad news. If khamenei is dead – or has suffered from a stroke – I think most of us should hope that he stays alive until atleast the new guardian council begins, since the one now is really pro-Ahmadinejad and Mesbah Yazdi. I think you are right, even if he is not dead, he is politacly dead and is hanging in there until the new pro-rafsanjani council adjourns. I have this hope since I dont want to see the suffering of our people through war, and I strongly believe that a pro-Ahmadinejad leader will be an invitation to war. if you do agree and are anti-war as I am, lets really pray he stays alive a bit. I really am afraid if Mesbah and his group gain this kind of power and there is no war, the next few generation will be devastated. At least rafsanjani is negotiable.
ML:
Yes, I’m totally against invading Iran or bombing the nuclear sites, but Iran has been killing Americans for 29 years and eventually America will respond…
Jan 8, 2007 - 6:48 pm 70. Darius:Dear Mr Ledeen
Jan 8, 2007 - 6:59 pm 71. Cyrus R.:Even if the news is not true you made a buzz in our family and also made my mother so happy. I do no think the death of someone should create happiness in others , but his death at this critical moment might prevent war and bloodshed in country . Could Putin’s spies have a lunch with Ahmadi Nejad too ?
Dear Dr. Ledeen,
Thank you for your service to the people of the U.S. and Iran. Your work is invaluable for those wanting to understand the big picture of what is going on inside Iran.
The news of Khamnei’s death/near death is an occasion for joy but I am afraid that it won’t really lead to anything good but I really hope i am wrong sir. Take care, you are in our prayers and our thoughts and please keep us further informed.
Cyrus
Jan 8, 2007 - 7:55 pm 72. Arash:Dear Mr. Ledeen,
Thanks for your continiuos attention.
Jan 8, 2007 - 9:05 pm 73. ronin:Here are some updates regarding this story:
http://kamangir.wordpress.com/2007/01/08/khameneii-is-alive/
more like it shows the shoddiness of PJM bloggists
Jan 8, 2007 - 10:30 pm 74. Ehsan:Nourizadeh was saying today that he was gravely ill and was taken out of Tehran for a few weeks and this whole thing happens in “Mashhad”!
He was also saying that among the mullas Rafsanjani has the highest chance of taking over
ML:
But I thought he was supposed to be fine, giving speeches in Qom, etc etc
Jan 9, 2007 - 1:13 am 75. H.M:Dear Micheal,
As I noticed yesterday, the first photos on Farsnews( which I have mentioned yesterday and deleted from farsnews website a few minutes later) showed him behind a table with an open book in front of him on ground level not on the balcony. This is really different from the place which has been showed later. Moreover I carefully read transcript of his speach. There is no using the exact word “Resolution” in his speech.
Jan 9, 2007 - 1:47 am 76. ali:problem is leeden that you claimed he was DEAD. you made an assertion as if it was a fact. this is defamation, slander, u name it!
Jan 9, 2007 - 3:41 am 77. Bahram:No wonder that almost all your commenters agree with you, exactly what i guessed, you don’t just filter the “insults”, you filter any comment which doesn’t confirm your point of view. Speaking of deceptiveness of Iranian regime, that’s for sure, but you dont fall short at all either.
btw: The guy showed up in public in Qom yesterday, i guess that means he is unfortunately alive.
Jan 9, 2007 - 5:00 am 78. Ali N:Mr Ledeen
This is off topic, but I would really appreciate if you respond, since you made the comment in the same thread.
In response to one of your readers You said; “Iran has been killing Americans for 29 years”"!! Are you serious?!!
Last time I checked you (the U.S) were the ones providing chemical weapons to Saddam to use against us and protected him against any eventual international sanctions when he did!! And you were the ones who actually awarded the marine officer responsible for shooting an Iranian airbus!!
Never mind all the political crimes.
ML:
Well, just to take the most recent example, there’s Khobar Towers and the bombing of the American embassies in Africa.
Jan 9, 2007 - 5:44 am 79. Amin:more important: http://www.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8510170377
Jan 9, 2007 - 7:13 am 80. whoever:Rafsanji want to go to Qom: http://www.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8510170377
Dear ML
Please avoid to write that Iranian has been killing us for …
Jan 9, 2007 - 10:45 am 81. David Smithson:I did not kill any american at all.
Please mention mulla regime instead of iranian in your reports, if it is possible.
Saddam just spoke with Khamenei and sent a message that he is alive and they would both like to come to America where “everyone has air conditioning”.
Jan 9, 2007 - 10:46 am 82. Vahid:If he is dead then the regime will keep this as a secret till deadline day which is set over Iran by UN. You saw that on his last (probably fake) speech, he defend iran’s present policy on nuclear program!
Jan 9, 2007 - 1:58 pm 83. Sorry, I didn't vote for MA!:i think if he really dies they will choose the way that Israel took on Sharon, they will proclaim that he is in coma or something, the state-run media will ask people to pray for him, and they will increase resrictions to control the situtations. then the Assembly of Experts will choose the new leader and announce the old one’s death.
Jan 9, 2007 - 2:14 pm 84. Davebo:Can I assume you’ve seen the evidence that Iran was involved in Khobar Towers?
It seems no one else has been allowed to.
ML:
Please do not give us that smarmy “I assume…” bit. If you did your homework you’d know this.
Read Louis Freeh’s book and/or his several articles on this, or just read the recent court decision in which an American judge concurred that Iran, having been responsible for the bombing, was liable for damages.
Jan 9, 2007 - 4:51 pm 85. Anynymous:I was wondering what ever happened to Zahra Kamalfar and her Children? Did they ever get out of Moscow?
ML:
Last I checked they were in Moscow, with good legal representation and under no threat of immediate expulsion to Iran.
Jan 9, 2007 - 9:09 pm 86. Farhad:Kindly Note,
Jan 10, 2007 - 7:01 am 87. Ali N:On such important Eaid(Ghadir),IRIB Tv,in the past would have showed such speech to the extent that you could throw up.They would have first read his speech,then they would show it completely with his voice,and would have repeated it many times that day.Nothing happened this time.
Be sure there is something wrong.
“Well, just to take the most recent example, there’s Khobar Towers and the bombing of the American embassies in Africa.”
Oh please! First, where are your proofs? Are Iranians the only ones who are angry at the U.S for its foreign policies in the past 60 years?! And secondly, even if that was true, how does it compare to the hundreds of thousands of Iranians who died with your conventional and chemical weapons handed to your old pal Saddam?!!
If Iran really wanted to kill american civilians, america would be a huge mess right now. And you know that. So, let’s not engage into that kind of propaganda and psychological warfare.
ML:
Oh silly me, I thought the smarmy question a few comments down was an actual question. Now I see it’s a mini campaign.
Jan 10, 2007 - 10:59 am 88. Great Khan:Dr. Ledeen,
Did you hear about an explosion in the mountains near Kirman? One Iranian news agency called it a ufo crash. What do you could have caused it?
Thanks
ML:
Martian kamikazes, probably.
Jan 10, 2007 - 11:20 am 89. Bill Bradley:From hard experience, I can tell you that when your source stops calling you back — and there is no corroboration for your story and no one else is picking it up — that means that he is a fracking liar.
ML:
Well first of all the source has reappeared, insisting that Khamenei is dead. He may still be an effing liar. I’ve had sources lie to me ad infinitum.
Secondly, don’t imagine that it’s easy for people in Iran to just pick up the phone and call, or to logon and send an email. Communications are monitored, they take risks when they do such things. That’s one reason why I’m usually very suspicious of communications from Iran, since I figure those who aren’t afraid to contact me are probably protected in some way, maybe even working for the regime.
Life is very complicated. Even Jack Bauer would have trouble sorting out Iran.
Jan 10, 2007 - 4:27 pm 90. Azad Andish:A message of condolence on the death of “Ali Davaani” is said to have been issued by Khamenei yesterday ( according to his website http://www.leader.ir). Also his appearance and speech in Eid-e Qadir has been covered ( with pictures + text ) in the same site.
By the way I am glad you used the concept ” you might have been gulled”. In such a case we should try to understand what has been the real reason for the regime to let such a fake story “leak” and what were they checking indeed. You might have seen the news that a “nuclear spy” was arrested in Majlis ( the parliament ). I hope the news you spread so fast has not been a trap to know some decent people who are fed up with the regime.
I write from Tehran and I apologize if my English is not fluent anyways.
ML:
I don’t think there is much mystery about the large numbers of people who are fed up with the regime. The whole world knows that. And a real spy, someone who leaked nuclear secrets, wouldn’t be uncovered by a phony story about the Leader’s death.
Finally, the Leader’s constantly changing web site’s publishing a “statement” and photographs doesn’t prove anything.
Do you know anyone who actually saw him in Qom yesterday?
Jan 10, 2007 - 6:09 pm