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So maybe Castro is dying, and then again maybe he’s not. Maybe the stories about his fading health are true, but then again perhaps they are “bait” being cast into the population to see who bites, and starts celebrating…or acting to support freedom.

The same could be said about similar stories in similar tyrannies, from Syria and Iran to North Korea. That is because the tyrants’ victims believe there is no hope today, but there might be tomorrow, if only the bastard were dead.

I understand this illogic, but it is misguided nonetheless. Unlike some of the despots of antiquity, modern tyrants no longer base their rule exclusively on their own personal charisma; they create a tyrannical system, which is designed to survive them. This is particularly true of the heads of highly ideological regimes, whether they are Islamists or Communists or Nazis.

Thus I would be surprised to see the collapse of the regime in Cuba after Castro’s death, just as I do not think that the death of Khamenei would precipitate the end of the Islamic Republic in Iran. Hafez al Assad died and his son smoothly took over; Kim il Sung died and was succeeded by Kim Jong Il. Stalin died…you get the idea.

Those regimes were created over time, with a lot of work. The goddess of history isn’t going to wave her magic wand and make them go away; we will have to work to bring them down.

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5 Comments

Uzi:

Yeah, but when Generalissimo Franco died — he’s still dead, I hear — Spanish facism died with him, after nearly thirty years.

And when Chairmen Mao went to join his ancestors, there was a sea change in China. Western levels of political freedom and democracy didn’t occur there, but the level of totalitarian control of people’s lives went down by at least an order of magnitude.

And Stalin’s death may not have made the Soviet Union free, but it did mark a huge change for the better. The country remained a totalitarian dicatorship, but it stopped being the slaughterhouse of millions it had become under “the Sun of the nations”.

Aug 26, 2007 - 3:26 am Winston:

I hope he’s dead

Aug 26, 2007 - 5:57 am David Thomson:

“Yeah, but when Generalissimo Franco died — he’s still dead, I hear — Spanish facism died with him, after nearly thirty years.”

Francisco Franco was not a totalitarin despot. At the worst, he was mildly authoritarian. He did almost nothing to perpetuate his regime after his death.

ML:

Agreed. He knew democracy was coming and did a few small things to encourage it, actually.

Aug 26, 2007 - 1:35 pm Kourosh:

Dictators can be brought down easily. However, manipulation in world politics doesn’t allow that happen on time. Case in point is Iran. All Iranian want the present Mullacracy to join the toilet of history. However European for economic reason doesn’t allow that to happen. Of course they have BBC and Guardian to poison the environment.
The world politics and its dealing with Khomeinists has become a joke in Iran. If you put two and two together and understand what is going on in Iran, then you will realize how Iranian make jokes by combining Islamists laws and regulation (such as the law that allows a man to have few wives), and Khomeinist slogans (like US can’t do a damn thing and nuclear energy is our undisputed right). Here is what Iranian say these days:
A Mullah was asked: what is the difference between the first wife and the second one. The Mull responded by saying:
The second wife is like nuclear energy which is our undisputed right, and the first wife is like the US, who can’t do a damn thing.

Aug 26, 2007 - 10:07 pm Amphipolis:

I predict that Chavez will seize control of Cuba upon Castro’s death, perhaps with a Cuban puppet. Chavez could easily have his minions in place in Havana and claim he is protecting Cuba from a US takeover. Chavez seems to have plenty of access. Castro could be dead for weeks while Chavez implements his plan. We would be powerless to stop it.

It just seems like the obvious chain of events to me, virtually every image of Castro now includes Chavez at his bedside. What am I missing?

Aug 28, 2007 - 10:38 am

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