As you know, I’m a big fan of “Spengler,” the elegant and cultured columnist for “Asia Times.” He’s just come out with a new think piece on Iran, which comes to the right conclusion (that is, the same one I have), but greatly confuses the issue of why the mullahs do what they do.
Read his important essay–if you can’t be bothered, I’ll summarize most of it anyway, but it’s always a pleasure to read his prose–and then come back to me. His central theme is that the Iranian economy is a basket case, that the country is facing hyperinflation, that there is a great lack of public confidence in the regime, and that the mullahs will (quite soon) have to choose between a Gorbachev-style surrender, or war. He thinks they have already chosen war. And he doesn’t think we can offer them anything that will produce Iran’s “giving up its nuclear ambitions and kenneling its puppies of war.”
He is certainly right about the economic diagnosis, which I have discussed at great length in “The Iranian Time Bomb.” He considers the very real possibility that Iran is running a current account deficit right now, despite the extraordinary runup in oil prices:
In a May 19 statement reported by the official Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), President Mahmud Ahmadinejad denied a report that Iran’s imports now exceed $60 billion, against an official estimate of $45 billion. This sort of discrepancy typically occurs when capital flight is disguised as imports through fraudulent invoices and similar devices. A small current-account deficit would be of little concern for a nation with normal access to world capital markets, but Iran is unable to borrow.
There is indeed massive capital flight. As I wrote a couple of years ago, Gulf bankers told me that they can’t handle all the money pouring out of Iran. Wealthy Persians long since saw the doom of the Islamic Republic, and have been looting the country’s resources for their own gain.
So far, so bad, and the regime is making things even worse. Instead of devoting real resources to improving things, they are printing money, further pauperizing Iranian workers–who are famously paid very late, if at all, as demonstrated by the ongoing demonstrations and strikes at government-owned companies–and the commercial middle class. As Spengler puts it:
If Ahmadinejad were in the pay of a hostile intelligence service, he could not have found a more effective way to sabotage Iran’s economy. If the price of goods rises faster than the cost of money, everyone who can will borrow money to purchase and hoard goods. The result will be higher prices and reduced economic activity, and the eventual prospect of hyperinflation, which no government ever has survived.
I don’t know about that last claim; to take just one current counter-example, Zimbabwe’s inflation is now seemingly beyond rational calculation, but Mugabe still rules. National suicide is not unknown, and I can well imagine the Islamic Republic martyring itself at its own hands, quite in keeping with the ideology of the leaders.
But Spengler doesn’t ask the obvious question: why? Surely the mullahs know how bad things really are, and they have plenty of resources to cope with the crisis. Why aren’t they? I think Khomeini gave the answer on the airplane that flew him from Paris to Tehran in 1979: he didn’t give a damn about Iran, he was fighting for the triumph of Islam. His heirs are of the same fanatical ilk: Iranian resources are largely devoted to the cause of jihad, not to Iran per se. If Iran goes down the drain, but a new caliphate is created, first in the region and then globally, that’s success by their standards.
Spengler knows that. He notes that “Iran is engaged in such an adventure, funding and arming Shi’ite allies from Basra to Beirut, and creating clients selectively among such Sunnis as Hamas in Palestine.” Let’s add al Qaeda to that list, while we’re at it. He then compares the Iranian regime to Gorbachev’s. By the time Ronald Reagan entered the White House, “all the communists in Russia were dead or in the gulags,” and the Kremlin was largely managed by cynical self-promoters, not true believers. So when the moment of truth arrived, the Soviets went quietly to their doom. But in Iran, “Ahmadinejad typifies the generation of Revolutionary Guards who followed the ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1979, and now hold senior positions in the state and military.”
I think that’s why Iranian society is careening into history’s septic tank, it is why the word most often used by sensitive Iranians to describe their country’s plight is “degradation.” Persia is being gutted in order to fund the terror war against the West. From the grim figures on the economy, to the mounting trafficking of Persian women to the brothels of the world, to the drug epidemic sabotaging the future of Iranian youth, to the torture cells reserved for anyone who speaks the truth, Persia is being destroyed. All in the name of an evil ideology that drives a global war against civilization.
That war has been raging for nearly thirty years, and no Western government has yet found the will to engage in it. The message Spengler delivers is that there is no way out of this war. Left to their own devices, the mullahs will destroy Iran, and, if they can, us as well.
UPDATE: Spengler writes to point out that his article was written a year ago. Another senior moment for me! And high praise for him, since it reads as if it were done this morning.
PJM Home
Accomplice to Evil: Iran and the War Against the West
The Iranian Time Bomb: The Mullah Zealots’ Quest for Destruction
The War Against the Terror Masters: Why It Happened. Where We Are Now. How We’ll Win.
Tocqueville on American Character: Why Tocqueville’s Brilliant Exploraton of the American Spirit is as Vital and Important Today as it was Nearly Two Hundred Years Ago
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62 Comments
1. Pajamas Media » Why the Mullahs Will Keep on Fighting Us — and Destroying Iran:[...] Read the full post here. [...]
May 26, 2008 - 11:40 am 2. Winston:Mullahs have devastated Iran, ruined its reputation around the world and have kiiled innocent people around the world.
May 26, 2008 - 12:15 pm 3. AnnieB:On the other hand?
Remember the rule of ‘Gamblers Ruin”
I give billion to one that they will destroy themselves before we are more than…. at most … slightly irked. Trillion to one againt getting their magic Califiate out of the mess. (Because chaos does not lend to any higher form of organization – so make that actually infinity to one.) They are praying for magic – and there is no magic.
They will bleed out. We ( the West) will pick up whatever shreds of worthwhile talent or humanity choses to flee the rubble. We will be the stronger for it come the next round of ‘battle’.
(Wash, rinse, repeat. Include every backwards bit of fairy-tale-kingdom tyrany on planet earth.)
Hard rules of geography and economy (and the easy of voting with ones feet ) today mean that the smart will no longer suffer the tyrany of the stupid. They will pack and go. (Capital flight followed by talent flight followed by labor flight.)
I’d be more sympathetic, but I’ve always believed in the right to commit suicide.
PS: As for Zimbabwe? The only reason the above is not *happening* is that it already HAS happened. There is nothing there left. Thus the stability of the well bottom.)
May 26, 2008 - 12:34 pm 4. Ardeshir Dolat:Spot on. This is the truth that the western politicians and leaders have to acknowledge and adjust to. The Mullahs of Tehran are using Iranian resources to advance their evil ideology whilst Iranians go hungry! Sanctions will make management of their economy hard but they just pass it on to the people. They are not nationalists who care about Iran. The people on the other hand are unable to rise up against them as they brutally crush any descent. The world is facing a state sponsored terrorism of a kind that has never before been experienced. When ever did terrorists sit on 4.2 million barrels of oil a day!? I like to believe that when Bush and Blair invaded Iraq it was only to prevent the Mullahs from getting their hand on the Iraqi oil too. Whether the Iraq invasion was really for that reason or not, that would be good enough reason for me to justify the Iraq war.
May 26, 2008 - 12:39 pm 5. Alireza:As this article and other news coming out of Iran, indeed things are cooking in a much faster speed inside and outside Iran. I sense this speed is indeed is result of or intended to impact U.S. election, OR causing to causes certain actions before the new U.S. president comes t office. Even a retard would know since early 70’s, many U.S. elections was so related to events in Iran and how events inside Iran impacted who will become U.S. president. This time is no different.
Republicans are running out of time and they know McCain alone has no energy and popularity to assure another 4 years of Bush policy, as it relates to Iran and Iraq.
So Iran comes to the rescue. Thanks to the current power holders in Iran, they are concern that an Obama administration would indeed will MELT and smoke Ahmadinejad and his related gang in such a short time.
Power holders in Iran know well that while Bush and Neocons made so much noise against them, in REALITY, they all have benefited Iran.
Now it is the payback time for Iran. Now it’s time for Ahmadinejad come and rescue the Republicans when they need him the most. Ahmadinejad knows so well, with the bull..hit he keeps saying, he and his team will not survive few hours of Obama’s administration.
They know the first message they will get from the new White House is: “Cut the bull..hit and shut the f…ck up..” There is a Persian proverb that says: “one should not fart in mosque!” so Ahmadinejad knows with Democrats coming to power, all these phony 8 years of bull..hit will be over.
Now the question is, as I said before, would the Right allow the natural political process to take place, without they create another phony story that cause four more years of Republicans.
May 26, 2008 - 2:27 pm 6. Justin:@Alireza:
Are you joking? Obama is the second coming of Carter. He will be a gift to Ahmadinejad. If Obama wins all that will happen is Ahmadinejad getting whatever he wants out of the government. That is the problem with Obama, I guess. As the Man With No Past he can be anything we want him to be. At least until he gets elected.
I have a question for you though: what exactly do you believe that Obama will actually DO besides talk and make little speeches? Talk is utterly worthless unless it has the threat of action to back it up. If Obama gets elected and he just makes speeches Ahmadinejad will laugh himself sick. With McCain there is actually the possibility of some sort of move against Iran.
May 26, 2008 - 3:23 pm 7. mishu:Alireza, that’s a funny post.
May 26, 2008 - 4:06 pm 8. John Samford:If the Mad Dog Mullahs are allowed to build nukes, they can destroy the west.
http://www.es.ucsc.edu/~ward/papers/La_Palma_grl.pdf
“Even after crossing
the Atlantic, a lateral collapse of Cumbre Vieja volcano could impose a great sequence of waves of 10-25 m height on the
shores of the Americas.”
The entire east coast of America, the Atlantic coast of France, the southern coast of England would all be hit hundreds of times worse then Katrina. London, New York, Miami, D.C. gone along with 30 to 40 million people. Half a dozen nukes in the right place could trigger the fault.
May 26, 2008 - 4:48 pm 9. SAF:We are running out of time people. FASTER, PLEASE!
Justin:
Agree with you 100% Obama will be the second coming of Jimmy Carter.
But Jimmy was not without merit, not only did he make sure the Shah of Iran, a strategic US ally got deposed, but he made sure Iran became an enemy of the US. After 10 years of Mullah rule the economy was 1/10th of what it was under the Shah and women lost their freedom. The Mullahs devised a plan to pay, I think it was $7500 bucks to any family that would send a son to the Iran-Iraq war. i think the son got the standard 73 virgins promise and an autographed Ayatollah Komeni prayer robe as a sign on bonus. They would have also thrown in a free ice crusher but alas there was no ice. Another benefit of Jimmy Carter was he got my life long democratic parents to vote for Ronald Reagan, an amazing achievement in and of itself.
The current Iran regime wants to kill the Israelis dead, and us mortally wounded. they say it all the time. Why won’t Obama believe them? The republicans don’t either as witnessed by their lack of action.
There may be a possibility that McCain will do something, but i don’t give it good odds. Hopefully these guys will self destruct.
May 26, 2008 - 4:52 pm 10. on the mullahs destroying iran « Bored Melo:[...] Why the Mullahs Will Keep on Fighting Us, and Destroying Iran Persia is being gutted in order to fund the terror war against the West. From the grim figures on the economy, to the mounting trafficking of Persian women to the brothels of the world, to the drug epidemic sabotaging the future of Iranian youth, to the torture cells reserved for anyone who speaks the truth, Persia is being destroyed. All in the name of an evil ideology that drives a global war against civilization. [...]
May 26, 2008 - 5:41 pm 11. Winston:Obama is going to be the 2nd term of Jimmy Carter terrible presidency.
May 26, 2008 - 6:24 pm 12. John Moore:What I don’t understand is why Dr. Ledeen elsewhere opposes military attacks on Iran by the U.S.
History shows that ideological-totalitarian regimes like Iran’s survive in spite of the misery of their people. Furthermore, possession of nuclear weapons will make the rulers even more dangerous.
Yes, they want a war. And if we give it to them, it will temporarily help their domestic problems, as nationalism drives the people towards them.
But we have to act. Otherwise they’ll get their war, but with nukes. It will be far more bloody and dangerous then.
May 26, 2008 - 7:25 pm 13. Yari National Group:The bottomless pit awaits these murdering Mullah’s for what they have done to Iran and Iranians.
They are the shame of human race!
May 26, 2008 - 7:40 pm 14. Tom W.:I predict that the U.S. will strike Iran before President Bush leaves office.
General Petraeus will be the new head of CENTCOM, and he’s said that we won’t win in Iraq until Iran is stopped one way or another. President Bush also told the Israelis that Iran requires a “radical solution” that will change the dynamics of the middle east.
The Iraqis are suddenly throwing off Iranian influence, despite the “experts” telling us just months ago that Maliki was Iran’s puppet.
The Israelis are reaching out to Syria, as if soon Iran will not be a factor.
The Sunni Arab Gulf states have essentially created an anti-Iran alliance.
And B-2 stealth bombers have been fitted with racks that will allow them to carry either 80 500-lb. JDAMs or two 30,000-lb. massive ordnance penetrators (MOPs).
It’s been sixty years since the world has seen the full destructive power of the U.S. military unleashed. If we have to attack Iran, the strikes will have to be decisive and over as quickly as possible.
This means massive destruction, but limited to the mullahs and the Revolutionary Guards.
And nobody in the world will come to Iran’s defense.
May 26, 2008 - 8:01 pm 15. Dave C:Talking to my Israeli friends, the US will not have to act – Israel will. An Iranian nuke would most likely be lobbed towards Israel, something the Israelis will not allow to happen.
The most likely case is a repeat of the attack on the nuke Syrian plant, or the Iraqi plant years ago, a pre-emptive strike.
The worst case is that the next administration strong arms Israel into not acting while diplomacy tries to work (unlikely) and a nuke gets lobbed towards Tel Aviv (and probably lands someplace in the West Bank).
This would be bad for the Palestinians (and the party holding the US presidency) but will result in a full destruction of Iran and a cold wake up call for the rest of the ‘civilized’ world.
May 26, 2008 - 8:33 pm 16. David Thomson:“I predict that the U.S. will strike Iran before President Bush leaves office.”
The odds are that Israel will have to eliminate Iran’s nuclear installations. George W. Bush listens too closely to the feckless Condi Rice. He may be far too intimated to do the right thing. Israel will especially have to bomb Iran if Barack “Barry” Obama is elected in November.
May 26, 2008 - 9:03 pm 17. lgkick:To those who believe that Obama is the second Carter: do you want a second Carter or a second Bush junior?
This article and its sister article in Asian times sound more like daydreaming. The dichotomy of Gorbachev or war is flawed. Peace has a strong chance in the region after the US troops are pulled out by the next US president (and surely it won’t be McCain except if another 9/11 happens or Obama takes off his clothes in public or gets assassinated) and people of the region decide for themselves what kind of government they want.
May 26, 2008 - 11:43 pm 18. a Duoist:A good post. Would an effective American policy against the theofascist government in Iran include four main strategies?:
1. Escalate and broaden the financial squeeze against all Iranian banks and state-owned and privately owned Iranian firms.
2. Separate the Euro-left from supporting the anti-American Iranian government by constantly emphasizing the fascist nature of Iran’s form of governance.
3. Separate the Iranian public support for their ayatollahs by emphasizing the religious destruction of Persian nationalism.
4. Without Russian and Chinese support, the Islamic Revolution in Iran might have already collapsed. Why not shift the planned missile defense system that has the Russians so upset from Czech/Poland to Odessa, to shoot down both Moscow-bound and Europe-bound Iranian missiles over the Black Sea? In return, Russia stops supporting Iran!
The key is still 2012-15. Is there time enough left, if a four-point strategy was employed?
May 27, 2008 - 12:54 am 19. Michael Ledeen:John Moore:
I oppose military attacks because I think there is a better way to bring down the Iranian regime. But I have also said that I fear this administration, and the rest of the Western world, will do nothing to support peaceful democratic revolution in Iran, and that in the end we will have to choose between surrender to a nuclear Iran, or attack it.
If we get to that point, it will represent a terrible failure of strategic thinking.
A couple of commenters have written about possible military action against Iran, including possible Israeli action. Since Tel Aviv seems to be the most likely site for an Iranian nuclear test, one can certainly understand why some Israelis might talk that way. But it’s hard for me to imagine an Olmert Government launching a first strike.
To be sure, I don’t claim to be any sort of expert on Israeli matters, but I’d be surprised…
May 27, 2008 - 6:25 am 20. Justin:@lgkick:
Obama is much like Carter, both in outlook and in the policies that he has proposed, but McCain is nothing like Bush. He has experiences that Bush lacks and has a long record of bipartisanship.
And also, peace would prevail if the US just left? That is the same BS that was fed to the American people back in Vietnam, that the North and South Vietnamese would embrace each other if we just left. Never mind the South didn’t want us to leave and screamed that they would die if we did, the news spun articles of happy thoughts that if we just left everything would work out for the best. Instead all that happened after we left Vietnam was that the commies massacred in the civilian population 3 time the number of casualties from both sides of the of the conflict prior to our leaving. Then the communists drowned Vietnam in a darkness it still hasn’t risen from. Why? Because the people in Vietnam, much like the people of the ME has no say in what kind of government they can have. YOU KNOW THAT! YOU ARE LYING TO US WHEN YOU IMPLY THAT THE M.E. PEOPLE WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO DECIDE WHAT KIND OF WORLD THEY WANT TO LIVE IN! IT IS ALL ABOUT THEIR GOVERNMENTS ABILITY TO MASSACRE THEIR CITIZENS WITH MACHINE GUNS OVER THERE! THE ONLY PEACE THAT CAN PREVAIL IF THE U.S. LEAVES IS THE PEACE OF SLAVERY AND THE PEACE OF THE GRAVE!
May 27, 2008 - 8:45 am 21. Dave:“To those who believe that Obama is the second Carter: do you want a second Carter or a second Bush junior?”
Well, since you asked, lglick, I’d rather have a second Bush junior…but I don’t believe we’ll get that with McCain. I DO believe we get Carter II with Obama!
From your question, I doubt you are old enough to remember the Carter years. Same thing is happening now as then. An “empty-suit” politician with not much of a record runs for President against an unpopular Repub administration (Ford was essentially Nixon’s presidency after Watergate) says a lot of palitudes and promises that anyone can project their own wants and hopes to, and wins because the country is tired of Repubs. And then we get 18% interest rates, gas lines and rationing, and of course, the Iranian hostage crisis that Carter essentially caused and bumbled magnificently. He was THE worst presidency of the last century bar-none!
Obama is even worse as far as experience than Carter was. At least Carter ran a state for one term. We’re being asked to elect the MOST LIBERAL Senator who has no experience running ANYTHING, with only 2+ yaers in congress…to make decisions that will impact history for generations??? I don’t think so…
…after 2 years under an obama regime you’ll be begging for the good old bush days – you think its bad now, if the reigns are turned over to a marxist we ain’t nothing yet!
And Hamas and the Mullahs will be celebrating America’s doom!
As the leader of Hamas
May 27, 2008 - 9:17 am 22. Faster, Please! Michael Ledeen « Tizona’s Weblog:[...] Pajamas Media/Ledeen [...]
May 27, 2008 - 10:06 am 23. Alireza:Those who advocate military attack on Iran, most probably, many of them have never served in the military (I have not), and if so, they have never seen a battle with dead bodies of friends and foes scattered around.
I mean, OK, if you guys are so supporting of such a strategy, then you should have the guts to come out and say how people like you also screwed in the whole idea of Iraq war.
What I mean is not you just babble words and nonsense. I mean things that prove you are sane.
I mean, no one knows who you are, at least have some guts and come out and confess how your way of thinking has cost the U.S. and the whole world so much cost and suffering in the last 8 years, and I don’t mean that in war related either.
The very funny thing is that I read on Debka that Bush was twisting in Israel to make them attack Hezbollah, while he was visiting Israel, and they refused to do that!!! Israel knows well that Ahmadinejad and all the bull…hit that he says worth nothing and means nothing, except when they want to use it in their PR, as it relates to Iran wishing or wanting to harm Israel. Israel and Iran have been doing deals from the Bush father in shipping arms to Tehran and all the way to the present time. I’m sure Dr. Ledeen has good stories to share from the Reagan era.
So in my opinion, all these talks of military attacks, etc are baseless and loaded with so much nonsense. However, I anticipate if, God forbid, Bush makes such a move before his term ends, I anticipate an Article of Impeachment against him and his VP will be passed with a majority in a matter of days. By then we might also find out that he might have had some mental problems that has brought U.S. to this shocking era.
As far as Obama is like Carter, this clearly says how far off you are! Your poor judgment and lack of research has deprived you of the very basic information regarding his policy as it relates to Iran.
To make a long policy plan short, he somewhat agrees with Olmert that few days ago said Iran’s ports must be blocked from preventing most of commercial ships go to Iran. Obama’s plan is first to offer an attractive carrot to settle the issue, and if it was not done that way, then he’ll go after Russia and China to make the squeeze and then the U.N. approval of port blockade. Period. End of story.
May 27, 2008 - 10:32 am 24. Ardeshir Dolat:Alireza,
“”I mean, OK, if you guys are so supporting of such a strategy, then you should have the guts to come out …I mean, no one knows who you are, at least have some guts and come out…..”"
You are a regime agent aren’t you?!
“”Obama’s plan is first to offer an attractive carrot to settle the issue, and if it was not done that way, then he’ll go after Russia and China to make the squeeze and then the U.N. approval of port blockade. Period. End of story.”"
“Port blockade” would end the story?!! What story?
May 27, 2008 - 11:03 am 25. kourosh:The answer is simple. There are animals like Brzezinski who still advocate Green Belt policy of annihilation of human kind, and is against regime change in Iran. Here is his latest gaffe in WP:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/26/AR2008052601740.html?nav=rss_opinion/columns
Just like that peanut head Carter, Brzezinski never cared about the life and future of Iranian people. These animals only care about their own agenda and agenda of the organizations feeding them. Any sensible person, no matter how stupid, would call for at least a regime change in Iran to stop the misery of Iranian people.
The Green Belt policy designed for backward people, is actually responsible for 9/ 11 tragedy. Before Khomeinie there were none of these Islamist / Jahadist craziness in the world and Islamist terrorism didn’t exist in the scale exists now. And guess who encouraged Khomeinst agents (Yazdi, Ghobtzadeh, Beheshti,..) to establish the Islamic Republic in Iran. You guessed it right. Cater / Brzezinski’s Mafia. Of course, all under human right slogans, which was / is actually human abuse, and Cater / Brzezinski gang knew it from the get go. These people are the main reason why there can’t be any solution for this Khomeinist cancer. Iranian think the whole thing is a game played by opposite groups, who only care to advance their agenda, not rescue humans from Khomeinists.
May 27, 2008 - 11:09 am 26. Alireza:Ardeshir Khane Dolati (Dolati means: governmental!),
“You are a regime agent aren’t you?!” Ardeshir Joon, you blew my cover! Just like that good looking blond CIA agent ended up from under cover to go over the magazine cover, you, Ardeshir all by yourself blew my cover….LOL
May 27, 2008 - 11:56 am 27. maximus:In support for your conclusion that IR is looting Iran, here is the very latest example:
http://www.marzeporgohar.org/index.php?l=1&cat=17&scat=30&artid=1352
May 27, 2008 - 12:22 pm 28. Ira Zad:Thanks Michael. Very good article and critique and commentary provided by yourself. It has a fresh outlook in it. However, I do agree with Spengler the system of the Islamic Republic of Terror is not capable of even producing a Gorbachev-like figure, so war and conflict –even if it means the burning of Iran to ashes– will more likely than not be the path taken by the regime.
But at the same time, some elements inside the regime are frightened by a military strike against them, so they try to reach out to the “Grand Bargain” crowd and Iran Appeasers here in the US. And plenty of takers too when the Iranians come calling: our own Condi Rice, Robert Gates, and certainly the liberal democrat party ‘gems’ like B.Hussien Obama (terrorist anti-American William Ayers and Rev. Wright to boot), as well as Euro-men like Biden, Kerry, and of course the head-Islamist admirer himelf the Honorary Ayatollah Al-Jimmy Carter.
Nevertheless, the regime is petrified that it will fall and lose its grip on power in case of war with the west. And they are most likely right about that. No time left for the emergence of a ‘Messiah’ (not the 12th kiond, mind you) to save Iran. We must act now.
May 27, 2008 - 12:23 pm 29. Alex Reed:First, Happy Birthday, Spengler! Spengler’s namesake, Oswald, was born on 29 May 1880. Our Spengles has carried on in fine form, and, even if it may not be his birthday too, I wish him a happy celebration anyway!
May 27, 2008 - 12:25 pm 30. harry:“Formerly no one was allowed to think freely; now it is permitted, but no one is capable of it any more. Now people want to think only what they are supposed to want to think, and this they consider freedom.”
“This is our purpose: to make as meaningful as possible this life that has been bestowed upon us; to live in such a way that we may be proud of ourselves; to act in such a way that some part of us lives on.”
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
No one can conjure more brilliant ideas from the ethers, and no one can go off the tracks with more style when his conclusions lead him astray than dear Spengler, my favorite cranky genius. He writes like no one else, and his observations are always acute and original. So, I reread with pleasure his “Why Iran will fight, not compromise” essay, and Mr. Ledeen’s equally cogent comments.
Like Mr. Ledeen, I find myself, more than a year later, still in agreement with his analysis. Iran’s theocratic leaders are in a race to the death, ours and theirs. The country is being crushed between the Cilla and Charybdis of impending demographic disaster, and the implosion of their economy. The mullahs must either capitulate, or embark upon an “imperial adventure”. I think that we can all agree that they have chosen the latter path – conquer or die, all in the name of the Mahdi, jihad, and the caliphate — and too bad for the Iranian people, an entirely expendable commodity as far as their leaders are concerned. Given the mullahs philosophical bent and worldview, it is a path dictated by both inclination and necessity.
Ahmadinejad & Co. have bet the farm on the development of nuclear weapons which they see as their only way out of the demographic and economic disasters they face, and as their certain path to glory. So, the race is on. Which will blossom first: a mushroom cloud, or hyperinflation?
Here is the one point where, I feel, events have overtaken Spengler’s excellent analysis. Until December, 2007, the economic stranglehold of U.S. sanctions were giving hyperinflation and economic collapse a boost in the race against
Tehran’s homegrown mushroom cloud. And from economic collapse could have come regime change, and a chance for the Iranian people to be free. Then came the infamous NIE foisted upon a credulous (perhaps) White House by various former State Department stooges now part of our intelligence (soi-disant) establishment.
Whether the Bush White House was complicit in the conclusions of the NIE or not, the effects on the outside world and Iran were devastating for the U.S. and the West. Within days of the NIE bombshell, new deals to develop and modernize Iran’s oil and gas fields were signed with China, Russia, etc., etc. These deals are worth hundreds of billions of dollars. Since the NIE, Iran has signed up country after country (many of them our erstwhile European allies, e.g., Switzerland, etc.) to mega-billion dollar development deals for its energy sector.
This gilt-edged revitalization of Iran’s energy economy, thanks to our very own NIE, coupled with the ever-higher price of oil, thanks, in part, to the weak dollar (a weakness we chose, but whose purpose has outstayed its welcome), have drastically changed the odds and reset the clock on the mullahs imperial nuclear gamble. They will now have all the money they need to pursue their nuclear dreams even faster (6,000 more powerful centrifuges are coming online, etc.), while also staving off/slowing down the collapse of their overall economy. The mullahs now have more of that most precious of all commodities – Time – on their side. And Time is running out for us to finally wake up from our delusional dreams. Time shall unfold what plaited cunning hides.
Kourosh, you wrote:
<<>>
I beg to disagree. Islamic fundamentalists have been around since Mohammed. Their methods have changed with the times and today we are technologically advanced. 9/11 was merely technology turned against us. Osama Bin Laden’s predecessor was the Islamic Brotherhood of Egypt and if we researched history more thoroughly we’d find a host of other terrorist “cells” throughout. Also, the world is far more accessible therefore the scale seems larger as 9/11 proved (again) that merely a score (20) of determined individuals can accomplish great destruction.
May 27, 2008 - 12:26 pm 31. Michael Ledeen:The current spate of Islamic terror in the world will end but who knows when. In lieu of war the best hope is for democracy to take hold but when you’re dealing with despots tyrants mullahs kings and Presidents for life it won’t be easy. As long as oil rules our lives the world must stomach such rulers otherwise the world wouldn’t give a hoot about Iran or its people. Do people give a hoot about Darfur? Sadly, not. We didn’t do much about Hitler until it was too late. Seems like we’re on the same path again. If Iran were to obtain nuclear weapons they could blackmail the entire Middle East. Any retaliatory attacks on Iranian soil due to their belligerency (think hizballah in Lebanon, Iraq insurgency) could cause Iran to launch nukes. Funny thing is they’re accomplishing their goals without the threat of nukes anyway. However with nukes in their pocket they can really ramp up the attacks. The could become immune to attack because no one would risk an all out nuclear exchange.
A couple of points, and thanks to everyone for such good comments and good decorum:
1. I don’t think even hyperinflation would produce a revolution all by itself; most modern revolutions have needed outside support, and there is still none for a democratic revolution in Iran;
2. Yes, some of the mullahs are undoubtedly afraid of an American attack, but on the other hand they so often act as if that’s exactly what they want, that it’s hard to untie all the complicated little knots. Nothing new there; Persians are so tricky they even fool themselves…
May 27, 2008 - 12:34 pm 32. Russell E.:kouroush – “Before Khomeinie there were none of these Islamist / Jahadist craziness in the world” … since the time of Muhammad it has been this way. How do you think North Africa became Islamic? How about Spain several hundred years ago. It wasn’t because Muhammad’s demented memoirs were so appealing.
May 27, 2008 - 12:43 pm 33. lgkick:Justin,
Yes, there will be peace when the US leaves. There was peace before the US got involved in Iraq. Even now, if the US leaves, the people of Iraq will figure out a way to fight the foreign extremists. And if they start killing each other, well let them do it. At least they won’t blame the US for it. But let’s not deny the clear reality: the US is in the ME to guarantee her superpower position in the world for another few decades. 9/11 gave the neo-cons the excuse but they would have done it anyways.
May 27, 2008 - 5:14 pm 34. Tom W.:“Even now, if the US leaves, the people of Iraq will figure out a way to fight the foreign extremists. And if they start killing each other, well let them do it.”
Strange that leftists are so cold blooded when it comes to Iraqis. I suspect that liberals now view Iraq as “tainted,” since so many Iraqis are enthusiastically fighting alongside American troops.
The logic is that since American troops are evil, murdering, raping, neocon thugs on a mission of imperialism and oil theft, the Iraqis who fight beside them are just as bad and should be killed.
Luckily, the Iraqi security forces are evolving into some of the best in the middle east. CNN reports that the Iraqi Special Forces are now as skilled as their American and European counterparts, i.e. the Delta Force, Green Berets, SAS, KSK, Jaegerkorpset, and so on.
For those who’ve never seen them in action, here’s a video of the ISF and their American advisers taking on the Iranian armed and trained “Special Groups” in Sadr City.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3tMDhVu-f2Q
Only two Iraqi soldiers were wounded on this mission, which achieved its goal. No Iraqi civilians were harmed.
It must gall leftists and their Qods Force soul mates to see Iraqis mopping the earth with Iranian-backed terrorists.
So, even though some leftists desperately want to punish the Iraqis for daring to fight alongside Americans, the happy fact is Iraq and its Coalition partners will win, and the liberals won’t get the bloodbath of their deepest, most lustful fantasies.
Too bad.
May 27, 2008 - 5:47 pm 35. Justin:@ lgkick:
There was cruel and vicious oppression before the US got there. The Sunnis, who were a minority, held the power in Iraq and made life a living hell for the Shiites. Where do you think those mass graves came from? There was peace in the sense that if anyone spoke out against Saddam they were tortured, there wives and daughters were raped and tongues got cut out. In other words it fit the liberal definition and standards of “peace”.
But the problem is, lgkick, that the people of Iraq no longer have to live under the unspeakable horrors, the inhuman, the incalculable cruelties of what liberals gaily call “peace”. They are free now and have the means to fight for that freedom for their families and for their country against those who would take it away and make them once again live under in what you call “peace”. Seriously, the fact that you have no problem with them living in “peace” and under the sort of regime that liberals fall all over themselves with respect for sickens me.
If the U.S. pulls out things will be horrible for the people who wish to live freely, and those, especially those from Iran, who wish to return the Iraqi people to a “peaceful Islamic lifestyle”. The people who are fighting for their freedom and their families freedom from the horrors of what liberals, with inhuman callousness, like to call “peace” will fight to the death not to return to that horrid life, and they will die cursing us as they watch their families murdered in front of them, their daughters and wives raped, for abandoning them. Just like the people we betrayed in Vietnam when we pulled out did. Unfortunately, liberals don’t seem equipped to care about those things. *spits* For them it is all about following the what ever the leaders of their party say.
May 27, 2008 - 9:22 pm 36. Justin:“the US is in the ME to guarantee her superpower position in the world for another few decades. 9/11 gave the neo-cons the excuse but they would have done it anyways.”
Bullshit! Before 9-11 Bush was an isolationist who wanted nothing to do with the outside world.
May 27, 2008 - 9:24 pm 37. ChrisPer:The thing that impresses me about Obama’s ‘Let’s talk’ strategy for Iran, is that he plainly has no clue what talking with Iranians means.
The national character is obdurate beyond belief to our western liberal mindset. Negotiation from a standpoint that relies on some universal win-win ideal and ‘mutual respect for presumed goodwill’ will result in the negotiator’s ass being handed to him in little boxes.
And that will be the good guys! The bad guys will humiliate your for your preconceptions being so stupidly naive, use the delay offered to build their bombs, work out who your allies are from your words and actions, throw them into their prisons, and deliberately beat them to death one by one and for variety shoot them in job lots. When I was there, anti-government protests resulted dozens of government buildings being burned, following which 90-120 people being rounded up and shot out of hand in the next days just for starters. The ordinary people of Iran have done nothing bad enough to deserve American liberals trying to help them.
May 27, 2008 - 9:34 pm 38. lgkick:Justin,
I am not saying that there was justice and freedom in Iraq before the US invasion. But there was peace and security for sure. People could go to the market without the fear of being blown apart or send their kids to school without the fear of not seeing them later. Saddam was an evil dictator but so are many others including Bush’s buddies in Saudi Arabia and our puppets in Egypt and Jordan. Let’s be honest Justin, we didn’t like Saddam not because he was a bad guy but because he stopped being OUR bad guy.
People of Iraq continue to live under worse unspeakable horrors under the Shia rule. Do you really think if Iraq becomes a stable democracy, it will be friendlier to the US than Iran is? Do you think by keeping massive military bases in Iraq and even controlling Iraqi politicians and businesses and whatnot, the US will be a welcomed party. If you think so, then you have not learned anything from 1979 revolution of Iran. The US had the friendliest government in place in Iran. What happened Justin? We had in Iran what we are now trying so desperately to build in Iraq by sacrificing our beautiful men and women and destroying our economy. All the influence that the US had in Iran was replaced by the greatest troubles that the US has encountered after Vietnam.
May 27, 2008 - 10:37 pm 39. smg45acp:If there was even one person in our government with half a brain they would order that billions of Iranian currency be secretly printed and shipped all around the world and into Iran to help speed up the economic fall of this evil regime.
Why drop bombs when you can destroy a country without them?
May 28, 2008 - 10:53 am 40. Steynianism 152 « Free Mark Steyn!:[...] WHY THE MULLAHS Will Keep on Fighting Us — and Destroying Iran …. [...]
May 28, 2008 - 11:02 am 41. Attackerman - Commentary of Spencer Ackerman » But Don’t Bother Trying To Find Her, She’s Not There:[...] in Iran! It’s almost like there’s a bunch of right-wing propaganda to get people to misunderstand the relationship between al-Qaeda and every rogue state [...]
May 28, 2008 - 1:33 pm 42. Javelin:Ledeen has been predicting they would fall for years. He always says the latest student protest or young kids listening to Rap or Rock is going to do them in. Yet the Mullahs seem to be hanging on to power very well.
ML:
I’m not predicting any such thing here, in fact if you read what I wrote you will see that I challenge the notion that hyperinflation always brings down the government.
May 28, 2008 - 8:55 pm 43. Alo Kievalar:One often gets a feeling of “unreality” when discussing or reading about the Middle East in general.
One reason for this is that explanations often have little to do with reality, and facts are misrepresented or are simply left out.
Using Iran as an example, it is hardly ever mentioned that at bottom, Iran has a great antipathy towards Islam and reacts with palpable revulsion towards Arabs of whatever sect.
There are historical reasons for all this which I cannot get into here, but these two “mind-sets” -hardly ever expressed openly- are deeply ingrained in the Iranian consciousness and have a determining influence on the actions of Iranians, whether sacred or profane.
The development and undoubtedly the origins of Shia Islam were determined and largely grew out of Persian culture reacting to the Arab conquest of Iran and the imposition of Islam on the far older and proud tradition.
The Iranians have never forgotten nor forgiven this alien intrusion into their territory.
Shia Islam is really Persian Zoroastrianism and culture masking as an Islamic sect.
When Ahmadinejad gets in front of the UN podium, he’s there superficially as a representative of an “Islamic”cause.
But at a more fundamental level, he is both led and guided by the belief in the return of the “Mahdi” (the Savior-To-Return), a figure long awaited in ancient Iranian religious beliefs and traditions and represented in Shia Islam as the “Hidden Imam”.
It is also important to understand that Iranians, while Moslem to all outward appearances, consider themselves to be a part of the Western tradition in both race and culture. Iranians are, after all, Caucasian and speak an Indo-European tongue, something that is not true of Arabs.
My point is that to approach modern day Iranians in the same way one would approach modern day Arabs is, for governments, a grave miscalculation.
ML:
Hardly anyone, and certainly no one who regularly follows Middle Eastern affairs, would disagree with your last sentence. Iranians aren’t Arabs.
May 29, 2008 - 5:03 am 44. Alo Kievalar:Thanks for posting my comment, Mr. Ledeen. I agree that “no one who regularly follows ME affairs” would consider Arabs to be Iranians. Nowever, “hardly anyone” is a bit too strong for the average American.
I would say a truer statement would to say that hardly any American (other than ME experts) would be aware of the difference between an Arab and an Iranian. This would not be true of Europeans, I would say, but it would certainly be true of Americans.
I’d also be curious what you thought of my other statements. Perhaps you didn’t comment on them since you may have thought not worth commenting on.
Regards,
AK
ML:
I try to respond to most comments, but it just isn’t possible, please forgive me. As for Europeans’ presumed superior understanding of the differences between Iranians and Arabs (keeping in mind there ARE a small number of Iranian Arabs), I haven’t been very impressed with their knowledge or wisdom. As for Americans’ knowledge of world history, well, one can only cry…and try to do something useful with our educational “system”.
May 29, 2008 - 6:05 am 45. dvd:Irans economy is a non economy, its a olgarchic hegemonic arrangement between socialists, mullahs, & oligarchs, all of which is rationalized as a sense of entitlement, under an elitist throwback mentality of ages past.
The mullahs knowledge of economics is confined to looting the population under the guise of maintaining religous order vis a vis thought control, while the socialists do the same under the banner of state elitism, the Iranian people are being hosed. Period end of story.
Obama….he’s but a pandering socialist with out capacity for the bandwidth needed to adapt to the impending reality post the victory of a stable and unified Iraq.
the critics here rationalizing jimmy carter and such, are themselves self interested in the largess they plan to derive, from an obama presidency…..its a shame there are so many ignorant folks with momentum within our system, to loot our population to the level of other countries.
There is a strong correlation between what is happening in Iran, and the political outcomes we face in the here and now if the looters have their way.
May 29, 2008 - 8:19 am 46. Alex Reed:Well, here’s some hot sauce for the internal situation in Iran: Meir Javedanfar’s latest article on PJM brings us the news that $35 billion in Iranian oil income has gone missing from the government coffers. That’s a lot of centrifuges….or a lot of vacation villas on the Amalfi coast – probably a bit of both. Ahmadinejad’s government never forwarded the money to Iran’s central bank as required by law, then to be dispersed for government requested projects, upon approval of the Majlis/parliament.
May 29, 2008 - 11:23 am 47. Alireza:So, what gives? Mr. Javedanfar muses about whether this could have happened without Ahmadinejad’s knowledge. What I wonder is whether it could have happened without the knowledge and blessing of supreme leader Khamenei? In any case, the Iranian people again seem to have good cause to distrust their government. I would be greatly interested to know what the many knowledgeable commenters here think of this news and these questions, especially Mr. Ledeen if he has a moment to consider these developments.
I agree with 70% of Alo Kievalar comments. However in regard to Ahmadinejad, I think he and his team, as he said before, they removed the train break and their train is going without any breaks!
As I read more and more of shocking economic decisions this wacky guy has started, they all look and smell like creating intentional chaos in the country, where he believes it’s only by such chaos Imam Mehdi, which I call Stealth Imam SI™ is coming. Now, you can find a mirror of Ahmadinejad in U.S. with people like John Hagee.
What does John Hagee says? Well, in the first paragraph of his idea, he has great love and affection for the Jewish people. He push so hard that ALL Jews must gather together and ALL of them end up going to Israel.
Then, he scream louder that ALL and everything that Israel wants in land-terms must be given to them by force. Then, AFTER all the Jews are in Israel—the promised land—only then and I mean only then, he believes God will bless the Israel nation by destroying them ALL, and then only then, Jesus will coming out from the next heaven gate at the same airport that all the Jewish state was evaporated.
And then many of you excited and Rightwing people drool over such people believing they love the Jews and just want to get them all back to the Promised Land!! …LOL..
And then the same wacko supports McCain and also Bush that they are the true believer in giving Jews what they want, before they all gone for the coming of Jesus!! And then you guys think having wacko people like Ahmadinejad is a monopoly!
So 7000 miles away in Tehran similar wacko believes that the only way to get the world to end is making things happen in an expedited way to speed the return of SI™.
So who are the people who contribute to such people to grow their power and influence? Conservatives and some of you church-going people.
May 29, 2008 - 3:01 pm 48. Michael Lonie:Well Alireza, Hagee isn’t President of the USA, isn’t even an advisor to the President, isn’t likely to be such an advisor, and most Americans will ignore him, even though most Americans support Israel. It’s a democracy and technologically advanced, and its people have bravly defended themselves against genocide and brought themselves up to a First World economic status by their hard work, while their bloodthirsty neighbors have stagnated and remained under tyrannies, even with access to all that oil money. Americans admire grit, which the Israelis have and their bloodthirsty neighbors do not.
Now the Ayatollahs want to finish the job the Nazis started. They, and the Arab wannabe genocideurs, must have decided that Allah does not actively direct matters on Earth any more, because if they did they’d look at what happened to the worst persecutors of the Jews over the last century (Czarist Russia, Communist Russia, Nazi Germany) and make peace with Israel PDQ in order to avoid a like fate. Which do you suppose should be Iran’s fate for attempted genocide? Collapse in revolution, collapse in economic failure and spiritual exhaustion, or almost total destruction by fire and sword spread over the whole country? The Ayatollahs seem intent on bringing about the last.
And for the record let me state that this is one American who knows, and has known for decades, that Persians and Arabs are quite different peoples. So to those sneering at the ignorance of American cowboys, lay off.
Want to talk about ignorance? In “Guests of the Ayatollah” one of the American hostages had some Iranian woman haranguing him about Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Finally he told her that the Japanese had it coming after their attack on Pearl Harbor. That stopped her, speechless. She had not known, it seems, that the nuclear bombings had come during World War II (maybe she’d never heard of that war) and that it started for America with a Japanese surprise attack. Now there is ignorance for you. I hope it gave her a few sleepless nights worrying about what America might do to Tehran over the embassy violation.
The USAF might be able to take out Iran’s nuke program with non-nuclear weapons, if we know where it all is, which I doubt. I doubt Israel can. Hardened and dispersed over a huge country, I suspect the job would be too big. Too many targets that are buried too deeply. It’s not like hitting a single target within range of aerial refueled F-16s, as with the Osirak reactor or the recent strike in Syria.
The Iranian people put these vicious swine into power with their Revolution. Their consent, active or tacit, allows them to stay in power. It is first of all up to the Iranian people to remove these swine from power, especially if they want to avoid being fried in the nuclear war the Ayatollahs seem intent on provoking. Once the bombs start flying it will be too late.
May 29, 2008 - 10:47 pm 49. Steve:I am not saying that there was justice and freedom in Iraq before the US invasion. But there was peace and security for sure. People could go to the market without the fear of being blown apart or send their kids to school without the fear of not seeing them later.
Yeah all they had to worry about was being hauled off and tortured and maybe fed into a shredder. Really Igkick the more you talk the more you amaze me on how clueless you are.
By your logic shouldn’t have Carter supported the Shah when they attempted to overthrow him? I mean Iran was safe and you could go to the market place right?
May 30, 2008 - 3:25 am 50. John R:To Alireza and people who think like you:
First, I’m am a sane, six figure salaried, expensively educated professional, husband and father. There are many, many of us out here in the US. Most of us don’t have the time we’d like to spend pouring over thoughful websites like this one. We are doing the business of this great country and each of us is contributing his share to ensure we remain the biggest, strongest, and yes, most charitable nation on earth.
So when we happen across comments like yours we are reviled. Our patience for you shrinks while our anger grows. We remember what happened on 9/11. We find that our military response was tepid with insufficient violence meted out against our mortal enemies. And because we live in this wonderful democratic republic we can bring to office officials who feel similarly and are as determined to act as swiftly and violently as we believe is necessary to destroy our enemies. The business of US diplomacy should mimic the business of private industry – they should solve problems quickly, effectively, efficiently and move on. I know I speak for lots of Americans when I say we’re tired of the BS that is the Middle East.
May 30, 2008 - 5:46 am 51. Alireza:John R.:
As far as saying: “First, I’m a sane, six figure salaried”.. well did you know Bin Laden salary was also well over six figures? His wealth was into billions, Mr. “Six-figure”! You know well that size really doesn’t matter, it is how you use it!
As far as: “There are many, many of us out here in the US”, I agree with you and that make me very scared! Many of you voted with high testosterone to go into Iraq, and I bet you scream louder than Bush saying: “Bring it on”, however, I’m sure you didn’t lose a child or having a handicapped son at home to take care. Most probably you have not even seen a dead body with lots of bullets in it, since you were busy making that “six-figure” income.
So keep screaming: “Bring it on”, like you are watching Sat. night professional wrestling, or you are just playing a video game and all B1 bombers and B52s, B555, B777 and B77X777 to 5th power are all games to you and all those dots are just dots, not people and more people.
”Oh bring it”.. don’t you get offended when leader of the free world speak like that? As an Iranian-American, everyday I wake up I get pain and feel insulted by people like Ahmadinejad, and I make sure to let people like you “six-figure” income know that. Yet, your depth and scope of your arrogance only cause to elevate your testosterone higher. That is why it is the worst day for America if McCain becomes President. I know you will cheat to vote for him twice, just like it happened in Florida but people like you, fortunately, are noticing how far off they’ve been.
I don’t want to keep you away from making your “six-figure” income, unless you are working for one those U.S. contractors not grounding wires to electrocute American soldiers not in the battle, BUT when they are taking a shower..….Oh yeh…”bring it on”
May 30, 2008 - 9:34 am 52. M.E.:ML: “Persians are so tricky they even fool themselves…”
It’s a very good observation. This quality is typical of all demons that make knots that can’t afterwards untie themselves. As a political emigrant from the Soviet Union (in 1973: the highest and darkest point of Brezhnev’s rule) I know that all totalitarian regimes need to survive a system of terror or police apparatus. Permanent Revolution (Trotsky’s expression) or Eternal War against Enemy (real or surreal, it’s not important) is also an indispensable condition to survive. The police apparatus in the Stalin’s period became absolutely monstrous: all the resources were spent to maintain this monster. The end of the Soviet Union’s history is known. As there is no difference between fascist, communist and Islamist ideologies (varieties of the totalitarian ideology), so there is no substantial difference between Stalinist Russia and Islamic Iran. The Republic of Terror (as Ira Zad defines this monstrous regime) must end in some way. The schema is always the same, but it is impossible to predict its concrete realization.
I am not a fortune-teller and detest this occupation but I don’t believe that Hussein Obama has any chance to be elected President. For his worshippers the most elementary logic doesn’t have any hold but for the normal people with some common sense it must be clear that in Obama’s case we have only political fantasies and no realistic political idea. Even in the improbable case he won the elections, his position would be very difficult and his fast fall inevitable. Like all demagogues he needs a system of oppression that is impossible to create in the US. McCain will be, I think, prudent but firm in his supports to all democratic movements. In any case the World’s destiny will be decided in the US. I am sure only of this.
ML:
Yes, the destiny of the world will be decided here, at least for the next turn of the great wheel. Thanks for your thoughtful words.
May 30, 2008 - 1:44 pm 53. Michael Lonie:Alireza,
Stop being delusional. Your comments on Florida show you haven’t the slightest idea what actually happened during the 2000 election. Your other comments are of equal sophistication.
The Ayatollahs started a war with us when they violated our embassy, a crime under real international law, not the fake stuff used to make a club to beat on the US or Israel. The Iranians have been shouting “Death to the Great SAtan” for decades. They have been attacking us with terrorism. They mean to destroy us. You and the other Iranians should give careful thought to what happened to Japan and Germany in WWII. Push us hard enough and our patience will end, and the Iranians will be very unhappy about that. So far we have been remarkably restrained in fighting people who violate all the established international laws of war. Don’t count on that lasting forever.
If you don’t like Ahmedinejad and are so worried about people being killed, get yourself back to Iran and overthrow the Ayatollahs and put in some halfway decent, consensual government, before the Pharaohs of Tehran provoke a massive war, as seems to be their intention. Otherwise you are leaving it to McCain to clean up the mess the Iranian people caused when they put these swine into power with the Iranian Revolution, and have no standing to complain about the reasonable, lawful means used for that purpose.
May 30, 2008 - 9:29 pm 54. Mullahs Keep Fighting Us While Destroying Iran « Evynn’s Weblog:[...] clipped from pajamasmedia.com [...]
May 31, 2008 - 2:27 am 55. Mike:What I find curious is that as beat up as their economy is what would a “few” improvised explosive devices do say to oil infrastructure? Do all these devices flow one one? Is there no opportunity to return the favor with devices manufactured in Iran? Some times I wonder if you need all out conflict or just a “little push”! I have watched what has gone on in Iraq and often wondered about that old adage “people that live in glass houses” would be interesting. Seems to me that you are either on defense or offense. I vote for the latter.
ML:
Well, right on! The issue is, what is the best offense? And as you know there’s a big disagreement between those, like me, who think that democratic revolution is the best strategy, and those who want to attack militarily…there are, to be sure, those who seek to combine the two (mostly Iranians who send things to me by email or by snail mail). I think the proper starting point is a) we must bring down the regime, and b) it can be done with mostly or even exclusively political methods.
May 31, 2008 - 3:53 pm 56. Ira Zad:Yes, we must bring down the regime. I agree. But when the US secretary of state, and secretary of Defense are both for ‘appeasement’ instead of ‘regime change’, then the task becomes almost impossible. Unless there is a ‘force majeur’ that takes the political lever out of their –and any other Iranian regime appeasers in a position of authority’s- hands.
Now, there is no other option left; as waiting for an intrnal revolution to suddenly happen and topple the regime all running on air is utterly futile. It has been just that for 29 years, too.
Indeed, it seems that the pacifist Iranians living in Iran need a jolt themselves to stop and think about rising up, instead of tacitly turning away from doing anything against the regime in their frightened, financially-centered, and self-serving world.
In the minds of the Iranian bourgeoisie, financial shananigans allowed by the regime and ill-gotten monetary gains overrule the desire for freedom and democracy. That, combined with quick persecution and elimination of any secular opposition by the regime, are exactly what has kept it intact for 29 years.
And the US is not only not doing anything to break this viscous cycle of acceptance and persecution, but it has in fact emboldened the regime by its disasterous and misguided Iran policy at the hands of novice and delusional state department “deal makers” as well as the esteemed EU foreign policy setters who most all have a soft spot in their hearts for their Ayatollahs
Pitiful is a nation that needs Condi Rice and EU to save it!
Jun 1, 2008 - 3:04 am 57. RuleTopia:Obama lacks the courage to confront Iran. He sat in a church that blamed the US government for inventing AIDS and injecting blacks with it, but did he have the courage to stand up all those years against this and other lunacy in his church? No.
Although Bush never explained it, Iraq was always a strategic move. Just look at a map. It sits next to both Syria, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, where all the evil and oil emanate. With it’s own oil resources, a somewhat more free economy, and a somewhat educated, somewhat securalized populace, Iran can also be a stabilizing influence in the region. And now, finally, terrorists are being defeated and the government is beginning to function with minimal competence. The Iraqi Army is already arguably the finest in the Islamic world, too. Those are all chips on the table.
In spite of these self-evident truths, the brilliant Obama plans to draw down US forces and risk chaos, not leave them there to threaten Iran. He’ll actually sit down with Iran and prove his cowardice and weakness by begging for peace.
Meanwhile, because of his massive tax increases and new government bureaucracies, our economy will go into a severe recession, making us all the weaker.
Jun 1, 2008 - 4:32 am 58. John R:The comments of Alireza to my last post demontstrate the a) he is either a kook, or b) he is in sympathy and/or support with the enemies of this country. I slipped in my piece the bit about my salary hoping he would take the bait. And of course he did.
The point of my post was that the atrocity on 9/11 has enraged millions of ordinary citizens of this country including and especially me. The fact that Alireza neglects notice or mention of this is revealing. I should like to remind him that we would not even be exchanging posts on this or any other website were it not for that monsterous event. As wonderful a writer and thinker Mr. Ledeen is, most of us wouldn’t even know his name.
The rest of Alizera’s post is psychotic. At this point the only interest I have in him is whether the immigration officials have let someone slip in this country who probably shouldn’t be here. Oh, and one last thing, he seems frightened of the military responses of our fine military. That at least gives me some comfort that our fine men and women of the armed services are doing their jobs. What did Alireza expect our military to elicit if not boot shaking fear?
Jun 1, 2008 - 3:37 pm 59. Alireza:John R:
Given that my initial response to your post was removed, due to passionate words I used for your response, like Iranian newspapers in Iran, I had to go back to SELF-CENSORSHIP and do my best to remove words that will pass through this blog. I want you to know it was hard, but I did manage it.
John R:
For the last 7+ years, we’ve been injected with similar comments like yours coming from places like Fox news. As soon as someone goes against your opinion, you label them. This is EXACTLY what they do to people inside Iran, when they oppose the government that they are American agents. So your comment is no different. All around the world, there are people like you who empower dictatorship and allow them to grow and stay in power. I just want you to know, you have many twin brothers in Iran doing very much the same thing, but given the high inflation rate, their salary is in 10 figures!!! LOL…
Your comments is very much the same TALKING POINTS you’ve been fed and you
keep feeding it to people like me.
If dollar is sinking: blame 9/11
If you see the world in a wacky way: blame 9/11, as you said it clearly
If subprime shafted millions of people: hey! Blame Bin Laden
If this administration has FAILED for almost 8 years: Blame 9/11
Now for the rest, just fill in the blank,
If…..…… blame 9/11
If…..………… blame 9/11
If……………………………………….…… blame 9/11
If……………… blame 9/11
If…………………………………………………………..… blame 9/11
And last but not least:
If……… and if……… got so ………… then blame Bin Laden and 9/11, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, and 100+ other U.N members. So John R: Get busy and start filling all these blanks. I do not ask you to connect the dots, since people like you FAILED to connect dots as large as 7-story buildings!!!
Jun 2, 2008 - 8:26 am 60. Alireza:OK, I think this will be my last post for this topic. It is very much related and needed for this topic. I just read this powerful article and it is indeed needed for some of the audience on this blog. The title of the article is: This 55-year-old Republican wants Obama to win.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/frank-schaeffer/why-this-fifty-five-year_b_105061.html
Jun 4, 2008 - 9:29 pm 61. WebElf Report News Blogroll « The WebElf Report:[...] WHY THE MULLAHS Will Keep on Fighting Us — and Destroying Iran …. [...]
Jun 8, 2008 - 1:58 pm 62. wm. tyroler:Michael Ledeen: “it’s hard for me to imagine an Olmert Government launching a first strike”
But Olmert did take out the Syrian nuclear project. And it’s very hard to understand why he would essentially capitulate to Hamas and Hezbollah, unless he’s maneuvering to strike Iran. As any number of astute commentators have pointed out, these deals have strengthened Israel’s enemies and made war more likely — to which I’d say that if Israel has already determined that war is necessary anyway, then it’s of no particular moment that the capitulations would merely take you to a place you’re going to end up anyway; the question is whether they gain you some tactical advantage in pursuit of that end. (We can quibble about whether they do, but that’s beside the present point, which is whether Olmert might reasonably think they do, perhaps by clearing the ground for massive retaliation should Hamas or Hezbollah react to an Israeli strike against Iran.)
Of course, it’s also quite possible that Olmert is simply feckless, and has given away strategic assets to genocidal enemies only because he doesn’t know what else to do. That possibility ought to seem as unimaginable as a first strike against Iran, but unfortunately it isn’t. Michael Ledeen may easily be correct.
Jun 23, 2008 - 8:00 am