It would be churlish not to credit Helene Cooper of the New York Times for noticing, or deducing, that it is most unlikely that this administration is going to attack Iran. I hope that someday someone will notice that we have repeatedly stated this, but for now it’s quite sufficient and most gratifying to see that Ms Cooper is there with us. To be sure, she says that the evidence is “mixed,” but once she gets into it, she’s careful and accurate, and sees no reason to believe that we will launch any military operation against the mullahs.
I have one quibble with the context in which she places the issue. She says
…Iran appears ascendant, its political and economic influence growing, its historic foes in Iraq and Afghanistan weakened, and its nuclear program continuing to move forward.
Ms Cooper’s on solid grounds concerning the nuclear program. It is decidedly moving forward, and none of the measures designed to stop it–even the new round of sanctions against Iranian banks and nuclear scientists and overseers–seem remotely up to the task. But Iran does not appear to me to be gaining strength in either Iraq or Afghanistan. On the contrary, Iran has clearly suffered a major humiliation in Iraq with the defeat of al Qaeda and the Sadrist Mahdi Army, and the growing military strength of Iraq has got to worry the mullahs a lot. They are desperately trying to intimidate Maleki into refusing a mutual defense agreement with us, and, so far at least, have failed. Utterly failed.
They had been doing better in Afghanistan, but the Taliban’s death wish has seemingly overcome sound military doctrine, and they are being killed in amazing numbers by our forces on several battlegrounds. The Iranian-supported Taliban keep trying to pull off a big military victory against us, which is just what we want. One Special Forces officer recently called it “target practice” for his guys. And now that Silvio Berlusconi either has, or soon will, tell his carabinieri that it’s ok for them to shoot real ammunition, the Taliban will have even more trouble. Those Italians are smart and brave, they will do well.
But I digress. The important point is that even the Times now recognizes the lunacy of all those claims by the likes of Seymour Hersh, and various lefty bloggers who I will not name for fear of contaminating my computer screen, that it was only a matter of hours before the big assault against Tehran was unleashed.
The short, straight line to realize how crazy this claim was/is, is to ask yourself the question, can you imagine Condi Rice and Steven Hadley approving such a thing, absent some huge smoking gun showing Iranians murdering Americans? Even the impressive quantity of evidence to that effect hasn’t been enough for these unworthies to approve simple measures of legitimate self-defense such as attacking the terrorist training camps in Iran (and its puppet regime in Syria, let’s not forget). If they won’t even do that, they certainly aren’t going to something approaching all-out war.
Hell, they won’t even support the dissidents.
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17 Comments
1. Ira Zad:Well, it seems that even the mullahs know that fact, and they are out saying “carrots & sticks” will not stop them.http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,370562,00.html
Condi “Grand Bargain” Rice and her cohorts hijacked our Iran policy. And shamefully and sadly, a weak and impressionable President and a beleaguered VP allowed her to do just that. History, and the Iranian people, will never forget this shameful backing off before tyrants. It is essentially an un-American act when you know evil and sit on your hands and do nothing meaningful to confront it. They have all shown in action that they are timid before, and intimidated by the “theocratic tyranny of turds of Tehran”, and that they are no friends of Iranian secular democracy.
Their names will remain in the hall of shame in history for their negligence and incompetence towards Iranian regime.
B.Hussein Obama might as well come into the White House right now and put this administration, and everyone else out of our collective misery. At least we know what exactly to expect from B.Hussein: a total and unabashed surrender to Iran and Islamofascism, and the completion of the total abandonement(a process that Condi has already started) of our ally Israel.
Jun 24, 2008 - 2:23 am 2. Ira Zad:Oh, now we are going to have a diplomatic office in Tehran, thanks to Rice and her old Iran appeaser chap Nick Burns — It’s all going towards the “bargain”. Wow, it feels like B.Hussein is in office already, doesn’t it?
http://wiredispatch.com/news/?id=224321
Jun 24, 2008 - 8:40 am 3. Dan:Bush hasn’t the wisdom, the prudence, the strategic sense to do what must be done. But what he’s most lacking is the nerve, the simple manhood.
Of course none of this would be necessary, had this administration the sense to heed Professor Ledeen’s advice years ago, when he laid out a strategy that would have forestalled the need to unleash and unload on the Iranians.
But now it’s all too damn late!
So the sitrep is we won’t do it, {because we’ve a wimp where a man should be…}.
And despite all the signal sending, The Israelis won’t do it because we won’t green-light them, but even were we to sign off on it, they still can’t do it, for they lack an Air Force capable of carrying out a sustained air operation so far from their frontiers.
Which leaves the Israelis staring long and hard at the nuclear option, {a pre-emptive nuclear strike}.
If I were in charge of Israel, I would tell Bush: “Either you go in with your Air Force, your Naval Air, and thoroughly take out that regime, their terror, their Manhattan Project, or we’re left with no choice but nuking them, ——————- and I’m going to issue that order in about 4 weeks.”
If you leave Washington a choice, they’ll do their level best to squalidly scramble out of it.
And if you leave Washington much time, they’ll leak your plans and try to media pre-empt your military pre-emption. So of course you would have to throw in the addendum that as soon as word leaks in the media, the nuclear tipped missles will fly as of that moment, regardless of the hour, and with no subsequent warning.
I feel like the late Albert Wolhstetter here, charting out nuclear strategy.
However, to turn to some good news, I’ve recently made a small contribution to Ledeen, Inc., for I’ve just purchased his book: The War Against the Terror Masters!
It’s an exceptional read, with all kinds of information.
Professor, have you ever spoken with former CIA operative, Robert Baer?
If so, what can you tell us about him, and what did you talk about?
Jun 24, 2008 - 7:15 pm 4. Michael Lonie:Yes we should have begun a campaign of subversion against the Mullahs many years ago. But let us not have ridiculous aspersions against Bush. Where do you think any domestic support for a campaign against Iran would come from? Our political and chattering classes can’t even keep up attention on Iraq, where Saddam was our overt enemy for years, whom we had to bomb to keep him in check. Do you think Bush could have ginned up domestic support for an attack on Iran on the basis of 25 year old anger over the embassy seizure? Get real.
The only agency in the US government that Bush could count on to obey his orders and fight the jihadists was the DOD. Every other agency has either ignored the fight, opposed it at the various levels, or actively sabotaged it. Do you think the CIA and State would be any more enthusiastic for a struggle with Iran than they have been for the Iraq and Afghanistan Campaigns? Is the CIA better prepared for dealing with Iran than it was with Iraq? To ask these questions is to answer them negatively.
There were very good reasons for tackling Iraq, it is the central front of the war against the jihadists. Victory there shows that it’s the jihadists who are the real weak horses, crippling bin Laden’s glamor even in Pakistan. It also revealed their true loathsomeness to many Muslims. If we do start subversion against the Pharaohs of Tehran Iraq will give us a much better base for such actions than any we had before the Iraq Campaign.
Bush is hardly a perfect war President, and he has his weaknesses (in particular I think he is not ruthless enough), but he is hardly the weak, spineless twit you guys are portraying him as. Bush has his virtues. His greatest virtue is that is he keeps the objective in mind, changing tactics and strategy (if belatedly) to achieve it. He is also willing to endure unpopularity to do what he thinks is right. And the other side of his lack of ruthlessness is loyalty to his subordinates, which most of the time can be an admirable trait. If Obama gets into the White House you can bet that these virtues will shine all the brighter in retrospect.
Jun 24, 2008 - 11:06 pm 5. Dan:Our chattering classes have been able to establish the narrative BECAUSE of, precisely due to the fact that the Bush administration yielded the pitch to them.
Bush’s PRE-EXISTING incompetence created a situation that allowed the Lib foreign policy establishment to set the parameters of the discussion, and thus policy.
It’s true that Bush has had State and CIA in open rebellion against him.
But again, he failed to crush that rebellion.
What’s more, HE BROUGHT ON to his foreign policy team, {after the ‘04 election} members of Kerry’s foreign policy advisory staff.
What signal did that send?
Did that send a signal that it’s best to go along with the policy decisions of the duly elected representatives of the American people, or did it send a signal that the administration was unserious, and that continued resistance wasn’t just possible, but likely to prove successful.
Bush failed to gain control of his executive branch.
Bush failed in his communication efforts to explain the war, and that a war which he himself described as “a new kind of war,” and that “new kind” of war was ALWAYS going to require MORE, not less communicative efforts.
Bush failed to go after the wellsprings of terror, Iran, Syria and S. Arabia, preferring instead to dodge the main islamic contenders, and polish off minor leaguers such as the Taliban and Saddam.
Bush can be described as a guy who lacked the nerve to press a charge home, and not man enough to stand in the line and sustain volley fire.
Jun 25, 2008 - 11:54 am 6. Dan:And yes, I’ve reached the sad conclusion that Bush is a “weak, spineless twit.”
History will surely record him as the worst Republican president ever; there’s no doubt of that. But what’s more, I’m increasingly suspicious that history will record him as THE WORST ever, regardless of party.
And that’s for a very simple, stark reason.
Dopey Jimmy Carter allowed the Ayatollah to get control of Iran. But in retrospect, it’s not clear whether the Shah could have crushed the movement against him, and successfully transferred power, {the Shah was sick, gravely stricken with cancer, his days were numbered}.
However, Carter never allowed the ayatollahs to ger their hands on weapons of supreme destruction, instruments of widespread slaughter.
Carter was stupid, ———————- not that stupid though.
But what can we say of Bush?
Condi and Bush have effectively signed up for “the grand bargain.” Sure there is the continued chirping about “all options being on the table,” but that’s nothing but a public farce.
The Bush team came in mocking the Clinton administration for defending their inaction regarding Saddam by saying they couldn’t get the UN to go along. The Bush team laughed at them, ridculed them.
Now?
Now the Bush team is charting the same exact course as the Clinton team, and quietly excusing their inaction with Iran by admitting they can’t get the Euros and “the world community” to impose sanctions, [and those sanctions by the way haven’t the teeth to really change behavior}.
So the Bush team has no policy on:
China;
Iran; and
Venezuela.
This administration is a pathetic joke.
Jun 25, 2008 - 12:06 pm 7. Michael Lonie:Bush’s inability to communicate well is one of those weaknesses I mentioned. As for not controlling his careerist bureaucrats, no President since Eisenhower has really been able to control the Federal government, especially the intel agencies and State. Not even Reagan could.
And Bush could have been the most eloquent President in history and the hostility of our media and chattering classes would have prevented him from getting the message out.
It’s hard to make and direct policy when your careerists sabotage it, and you can’t get rid of them all. Under Civil Service rules, you can hardly get rid of any of them.
Furthermore, Iran has been protected by the Euro fetish for endless diplomatic blather and the vetos of Russia and China over sanctions that might actually bite. More skilled diplomacy would solve it? Not when the other countries put making money above any other consideration, as Russia and China (and France and Germany) have. Their elites’ material interests override any argument our diplomatists might make, assuming the latter are actually doing their best and not sabotaging a policy they dislike.
Government and politics are the art of the possible, not abstract machines where somebody can do whatever he wants just by giving an order to do it.
Jun 25, 2008 - 10:12 pm 8. kourosh:Please note Larijani’s speech yesterday. He indirectly claimed IRT and Khomeinist have capabilities to assemble a nuclear bomb in short notice. He said don’t push Khomienists too far as it does make any difference. European implemented the appeasement policy for 20+ years helping Khomeinists in their cleansing and apartheid policies against Iranian people, and they and their oily circles claim now Khomeinists are too strong. Judging from what is going on in Iran, Khomeinists only are holding into the power by brutality and force and they are not a bit strong outside their borders excepts in some terrorist circles such as Hamas and Hez-Bul-Ah either. It is really amazing when some like El-Baradi claim there would be a fire ball if nuclear sites of Khomeinists (not Iran) are attacked. Who is going to be sympathetic, Jordan, Egypt, Kuwait, SA, or even Iraq? None of these countries have major Shi’it populations except for Iraq. Even Shi’it population outside and even inside doesn’t care a bit about Khomeinists. It is a known fact that the murderer regime of Khomeinists is hated everywhere in the ME except in the terrorist camps.
Jun 26, 2008 - 10:09 am 9. Azad Andish - Tehran:“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.”
Groucho Marx
Mr Bush and his administration ( including Mr Colin Powell) are the very definitions of “politicians”.
Jun 26, 2008 - 11:08 am 10. Ira Zad:I live in Iran. Honestly speaking until a few years ago we could deceive ourselves that something will be done by Mr Bush and we were so happy when he was re-elected. Today I even don’t follow what he or Ms Rice say on Iran. What can A once-superpower ( who cannot defend its own soldiers) do to help our desperate nation?
Well, we are already turning left in our foreign policy: today Bush and Condi lifted sanctions from North Korea and took its name off the terrorist nation list. Tomorrow, they will do the same on Iran if Euro-Khatami types get back into power in Islamic Republic of Terror. See, Bush played us for a tough guy all along when he was a yellow-bellied, sentimental ex-alcoholic.
Al-Baradei is on the Iranian regime’s payroll. He is married to an Iranian woman and as the Iranians say: “you yourself can see the story from here.”
Dan– I agree with most of what you said. Bush and Condi screwed us up quite badly on Iran. Bush may have the virtues that someone alluded to here, but right now –at war time–we do not need a virtuous, kind to subservient, gentle, sentimental man; we need a warrior.
If I hear that tired, trite, ridiculous, baseless, hollow, and stupid “All options are on the table” bull crap on Iran one more time, I think I am going to get really sick with stomach convulsions.
Ahmadinejad wants to wipe Israel and America off the map, and Bush dances with a sword in the Middle East, and dances again with some African tribesman. This is a war time leader? Or a buffoon disguised as the president of US of A?
And look at what we got: Condi Rice in tight fetish dresses with Bush’s Iran/Islamist Fascist policy leash tightly in hand sashaying around the Middle East! Condi would love to have another Iranian boyfriend (literally sleeping with the enemy) if only Mottaki would as much as look at her in meetings.
Pathetic is the right word, all right!
And where are VP Cheney and Elizabeth? And why are they allowing this farce to go on is beyond me.
Israel should act. And Olmert cannot pull it off.
Just today Mullen was over in Israel trying to cool their heels on Iran. Mullen is a dove on Iran. The hand writing is on the wall for Israel: US (performed by Condi Rice) is veering away from Israel and throwing them to the Islamist wolves as a prize to leave US alone. “Appeasement is feeding the crocodile in the hope that it will eat you last.” said, Winston Churchill.
It is final showdown for Israel, do nothing and face destruction, or act decisively and with all of its might (including nuclear) – the odds are even for Israel in this existential and final decision. Go down at the hands of world Islamists headed by Iran, or face a nuclear war when Iran has nukes. Time is not on our side in this at all.
Naval blockade of Iran is The LEAST that can be done right now. But we are clearly winding down and veering to the left in preparation for B.Hussein Obama’s take over of the White House, if you have not noticed lately.
Our only hope is/was McCain, but from what it looks like (again thanks to Bush backlash in the country), B.Hussein’s is going to be a landslide.
Our Iran and overall ‘axis of evil’ (what a farce that term turned out to be) policy is a total and unequivocal failure and a disaster. Bush and Condi’s names will remain forever in infamy over bowing timidly to Islamists worldwide. B.Hussein will finish the job by completely surrendering to Islami-Fascsists of the world (Nixon to China, is like, Hussein to Iran), and throwing Israel to the dogs.
Yeah, happy 4th of July to you too Mr. President! Our fore-fathers would have been sick to their stomach seeing what a failure you made of your powers, and of this country’s future.
Jun 26, 2008 - 11:58 am 11. Dan:Reagan never tried to rein in the careerists in the federal bureaucracy. But he didn’t let them carve policy, at least not to the extent that Bush has.
Today’s decision by our Supreme Court, with Scalia in the majority, ————————- I just want to remind all of you that Bush’s Solicitor’s General’s office took a position WITH THE DISSENT in their amicus brief.
Which means they sided against the history of the 2d Amendment, against the longstanding understanding of the 2d Amendment, and what’s more, that the Bush team took a position CONTRARY to the longstanding position on that issue of the GOP platform.
Just one more instance, if any were necessary, of the EXTENT of the WIDESPREAD, sweeping, all inclusive incompetency of this failed administration.
Jun 26, 2008 - 2:27 pm 12. Kourosh:Ira Zad. Aren’t we lucky? In our life time (one life only) we have monitored the total destruction of Iran (via Khomeinist backward revolution), followed by appeasement policies of murderous European government to keep the murderous khomeinist in place for almost 30 years now. Then we are waiting for the second backward revolution now in US, utilizing astonishingly the same leftist tactics with the help of European who are jealous and have been jealous at Americans. By speculating for oil price in Europe, combine with Green junks and global something, they are ruining this country to the drain as well. European and Socialist Internationale have always hated the achievements of American people and the country as a whole, which in its 300-400 years history have contributed to the well being of man kind in all possible directions, and in the process have become the strongest country in the world. Europe in the other hand have been issuing hot air and socialist propaganda all along while they all dream to have a life like Americans. This Obama Backward Change Revolution (call it Revolt) is the last chance that Socialist Internationale has to establish their doctrine. They tried with Marxism and after 200 million killed, and establishing the most backward, inhumane societies in Europe, they gave up. Now they are trying to establish themselves via Oba-Mama.
Jun 26, 2008 - 3:47 pm 13. Winston:Bush/Cheney team had a great shot in helping remove the criminal regime of Iran between 2002-2004 and they basically blew it. I am not sure if they’re going to be able to do any thing in the next several months.
Jun 27, 2008 - 11:14 pm 14. Dan:I’m not even sure they WANT to do anything about it.
I was discussing the issue with a staffer of Senator Lieberman. And I said “whatever appetite that Bush and his team ever had to grapple with the enemies of civilization is gone, ————- just gone.”
And the staffer said “That’s the Senator’s read of events as well, he feels they lost their stomach for this fight sometime ago.”
The parallels between this administration and that of LBJ are eerie, ———— just eerie.
Another Texan, who didn’t have much stomach for the fight, ———— talked big however, ——— but when it came down to it, ———- all he wanted to do was “send signals,” instead of finishing off enemy regimes.
LBJ’s widow said of him, “that he didn’t want the war in Southeast Asia, he wanted a war on poverty.” Much the same could be said of this rather pitable specimen, who wanted to go around the country chirping about the head start program, and urge parents to, in his gushy embarassing way, to “love your children.”
Those who are normal ALREADY loved their kids, thank you very much, and those that didn’t love their kids, weren’t going to be coaxed into doing so by his bizarre comments.
Just brain dead stuff from day one.
And all along Professor Ledeen here has been branded the mad bomber, the great war-mongering neo-con, ————————— and his approach was the only damn one capable of warding off the death of God knows how many.
People who don’t have a clue ought to be estopped from entering high office.
Can’t we make that some kind of Constitutional Amendment or something? I’ll try anything at this point.
Just go down the names of some of these guys over the last few decades.
Vance, Andrew Young, Shultz, Scowcroft, Holbrooke, Albright, Rice, Powell, Armitage, Burns.
No wonder Washington collectively flipped when Bush first forwarded Bolton.
After such a gang of dopes, Bolton was just altogether too much, too stark, too bracing, —————– just too much. I suppose in retrospect the fascinating thing is that the President, who soon caved, even bothered to nominate him.
Historians are going to have a field day trying to deciper the policies, the moods and the attitudes of this President, and this administration.
Jun 28, 2008 - 12:22 am 15. Azad Andish - Tehran:I think this might help as to see what is going on as a complimentary fact:
http://www.iranianlobby.com/
Jun 28, 2008 - 8:46 pm 16. Dan:It really doesn’t matter now.
Bush is done.
Finished.
Stick a fork in him.
And now nothing is going to happen in this presidency, and nothing will happen in the next, at least not within the first year, for the new administration will pretend that all previous diplomatic effort, by ourselves, by the UN and by Europe never happened, never took place, and they will try, on their own, to make the cretins in Tehran see reason.
So the way I see it, Tehran has at least a 15 months.
As for Israel, they’ve developed the appalling habit of running their projected operations past Washington for approval.
Washington isn’t about to green-light an Israeli operation against the ruling’s council Manhattan Project.
And that presupposes that Israel has the Air Force equal to the task, which they don’t.
Jun 29, 2008 - 7:37 pm 17. Alireza:The plot is thickening by so many thin/flimsy characters around the world.
On one hand we learn that the MEK cult has hired THOUSANDS of Polish university students for a free Paris trip to join the SMALL crowd of MEK against its terrorist labeling in EU. While Dr. Ledeen considers Radio Farda worthless, it was the only site that noted this EYE OPENING news on Polish students getting paid and going to Paris all-expense paid by MEK—which the whole source of its money is courtesy of CIA/American taxpayers!
Yet, BBC ignored this important news, while broadcasting the “large” MEK demonstration. This group is almost like Chalabi and associates, who carry guns and already earned frequent mileage by killing so many Iranians and Americans as well as their own members. As I said plot is thickening by so many flimsy characters funded by U.S. taxpayers.
I wrote the MEK portion because it is one of those dots that connect the WACKY, GED-EDUCATED U.S. politicians that are sinking U.S. image, power, influence and credibility to the lowest level.
As Dr. Ledeen avoids Seymour Hersh “for fear of contaminating” his PC, we now learn that $400 million was indeed allocated against Iranian regime, which for sure portion of it went for THOUSANDS of Polish students having a free trip to Paris all paid by MEK/CIA/American tax money!!
I think the news that was provided to Hersh is by the same intelligence community that can see the invisible hands within the government that is pushing U.S. to a wrong war that is not needed and must be avoided. So the same brave and patriotic Americans are standing up to the few, but influential individuals and entities who seek war between U.S. and Iran.
As I read more of Seymour Hersh article (http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/07/07/080707fa_fact_hersh?currentPage=1) and how kindergarten-level U.S. policy makers are SCREWING with the U.S. power and influence.
These people think “ethnic minority”, hating a regime, or things like that all translates into regime change and flower-throwing masses will overwhelm U.S. forces by hand-made rugs and hot tea and lots of kisses. As I asked before, I demand to know from Dr. Ledeen what are these people smoking and injecting themselves? Someone must answer me! What are they smoking?
ML:
I rather like Farda, to tell the truth. I didn’t say anything critical of it.
Jun 29, 2008 - 9:51 pm