It seems like only yesterday that Bob Baer, a former CIA case officer who was so good his own bosses decided to threaten legal measures against him to cover their own half-assed performance, was explaining that the American Government had failed to recognize the evils of the Iranian regime by the simple expedient of ignoring all the evidence. He wrote an excellent book with an excellent title–See No Evil–about the terrible suicide bomb attacks against us in Beirut in 1983, masterminded by the Iranian mullahs and carried out by proxies in Lebanon. It’s a must-read for anyone concerned about our intelligence services.
Now he’s returned to the subject of Iran. He’s written a new book–The Devil We Know–and he gives us a peek at it in Monday’s New York Daily News. He asks, as so many do, whether we’re going to attack Iran before the end of this administration. No way, he says, because the Iranians have us over an oil barrel. If we attack them, their counterattack will be too costly to us: oil prices will go into orbit, and our casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan will go at least sky-high. While putting forward this perfectly plausible argument, he presents us with a very odd sentence:
An angered Iran could punish us with thousands of extra casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan, as Iranian-trained, armed and funded fighters flow back into the war zones with a vengeance.
The odd word is “back.” For as everyone knows by now, Iranian-trained, armed and funded fighters are abundantly present in “the war zones.” The notion of their “flow back” suggests that they’re not there now, which is false. Keep that thought a minute, I’ll be right back.
He then asks if Israel might bomb Iran. And the answer this time is yes, hell yes. Because, unlike us, Israel is threatened with potential annihilation from a nuclear-armed Iran. And since the Israelis have figured out that neither we nor the Europeans are going to do much of anything to save them, and since the debacle of the last Lebanon war has shattered the image of an invincible Israeli military machine, and since American influence is waning world-wide, chances are good that Hezbollah and/or Iran directly will soon unleash a vicious attack on Israel. Rather than wait for that unhappy day, Baer argues, the Israelis might well decide to go first.
I suppose they might, but I have real trouble imagining it. For years now, the likes of Symour Hersh and Gareth Porter have been warning us that the American (or American/Israeli, or just Israeli) assault against Iran is only minutes away, but I don’t think anyone this side of moonbatland believes it any more. I have real trouble with the notion that Tsipi Livni and Ehud Barack will order a desperate attack on Persia. The disaster in Lebanon, after all, is in large part their responsibility, and I don’t think they have any great desire to go to war with a country six times the size of their own. I think they’re going to keep asking the Western world to “do something,” and hope for the best. Or at least hope that any “solution” to this existential problem will fall to the next Israeli Government.
Baer, however, thinks the Israelis will attack, and he is pretty sure that the consequences will be terrible (see above: oil prices in orbit, casualties sky-high). So he comes up with a neat solution: “find a way to bring Iran back into the nation-state system.” A happy thought, to be sure, except that we’ve been trying to do just that for thirty years, and there is no reason to think that chances are better today than they were in the past. Indeed, on Baer’s own account, chances are worse, because Iran’s current war against us and the Israelis “has more to do with a weakened United States and Israel than with any plans to start World War III.” Perhaps so, but there is no obvious reason to believe it. Again, Iran declared war on us thirty years ago and has been waging it ever since. Baer’s own career and writing documents that. And if Iran was willing to attack us and Israel at a time when we were stronger, why should they shrink from pressing their advantage now, when they see us as a falling superpower? It doesn’t make sense.
Then he tosses the wild card onto the table: “I myself think a deal can be cut with Iran. During the last 30 years, Iran has gone from a terrorist, revolutionary power to far more rational, calculating regional hegemon.” Just looking at Iran’s behavior, you’d probably think the opposite (I sure do). Ten years ago, the mullahs at least pretended they wanted to be citizens of the world. They presented us with a president named Khatami who whispered sweet nothing into the ears of Western diplomats and intellectuals. Now they give us Ahmadinejad, who tells us he’s leading the Islamic world in a triumphant jihad against us. If anything, Iran today seems much more of a terrorist, revolutionary power than it was ten or twenty years ago.
I sympathize with Baer, as with all those who think we are facing the Sarkozy option: bomb Iran, or Iran with the bomb. He doesn’t want war with Iran, and so he calls for a deal. Unfortunately, such a deal–even assuming the Iranians would play along–would probably have the same result as Chamberlain’s wretched deal with Hitler, the one that prompted Churchill to say “you had a choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor, and you will have war.”
We have war today, but it is a one-sided war, a war waged by them against us. Baer’s call for a deal, based on a false vision of the nature of the Iranian regime, is pure wish-fulfillment. Revolutionary regimes like Iran’s do not make strategic compromises with their declared enemies. There is no way out of this war, I’m afraid. We will either win or lose.
There is indeed a better way, which is to support the Iranian people, an overwhelming majority of whom want the regime brought down. But somehow that tried and true method, the one that brought down the Soviet Empire, and ended tyrannies from Manila to Tirana, hasn’t found favor among the master strategists. Bob Baer doesn’t even mention it in his article (I hope he at least discusses it in his book), and more’s the pity. He’d be a great guy to carry it out.
PJM Home
Accomplice to Evil: Iran and the War Against the West
The Iranian Time Bomb: The Mullah Zealots’ Quest for Destruction
The War Against the Terror Masters: Why It Happened. Where We Are Now. How We’ll Win.
Tocqueville on American Character: Why Tocqueville’s Brilliant Exploraton of the American Spirit is as Vital and Important Today as it was Nearly Two Hundred Years Ago
Machiavelli on Modern Leadership: Why Machiavelli’s Iron Rules are as Timely and Important Today as Five Centuries Ago
Freedom Betrayed: How America led a Global Democratic Revolution, Won the Cold War and Walked Away
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41 Comments
1. Pajamas Media » Can Attacking Iran Be Avoided?:[...] Read the entire post here. [...]
Oct 2, 2008 - 1:21 am 2. Almas:Assalam
Oct 2, 2008 - 2:28 am 3. Neo:around 2 years back, i saw the movie ’saving jessica lynch’ (thats the name, as far as i remember) . . It shows how ‘bravely’ the american military free jessica , who is in the american army, from
‘”iraqi captors’”
now, who exactly have invaded whose country? And who are actuall the captors? Huh!!!
newaz. . .
its human nature to demonize things and ideas THEY are opposed to. . . We all do it. . . Its a different thing that ’superpower’ america’s ’superhumans’ are just way too talented in it. . . the God-appointed-saviours-of-the-world should realize that the whole world is burning coz of THEM.
What is it about Iran’s behavior that concerns you so much?
In 2001, Iran helped us in Afghanistan against Al Qaeda.
In 2003, Iran sent us the grand bargain, offering to kiss and make up with Israel, wash it’s hands of Hezbollah/Hamas and put it’s nuclear program on the table. What did we do? We ignored it and condemned the Swiss mabassador for passing on the memo (as he was required to do). Very sensible of us.
In Iraq, the government is made up of Iran backed factions, that we helped install. So the Iraqi government is supported by both Washington and Tehran. Imagine that!
Ahmadinejad is one of the few remaining people on this planet who think our invasion of Iraq was a good idea.
Our NIE on Iran tells us that Iran is not pursuing nukes and has no plans to. Even more importantly, it concludes that the leadership in Tehran are indeed rational and aware of the cost benefit on not pursuing nukes.
We keep hearing about Iran’s support for special groups in Iraq, which hasw yet to be proven. After the seizure of huge stockpiles of weapons in Karbala, Patreaus sent down his team to investigate. Not one of the weapons seized came from Iran, not even any of the 520 IED’s among the cache.
So, why the need to bomb Iran? Even Tzipi Livni has said that Iran is no threat to Israel.
On and BTW. Symour Hersh and Gareth Porter have not been as far off the mark as Mr Ledeen would have us believe. After all, had the Russians not discovered the Israeli bases in Georgia, plans to bomb Iran may have already taken place.
Oct 2, 2008 - 2:51 am 4. Benson:Regime change in Iran…is this a new idea? Or might G. W. Bush and Company have thought of it, and kept very, very quiet about what they are up to? Once in a while something is noted publicly, and then we don’t hear about it again. There are a lot of Iranians who are very unhappy with the mullahs. Has no one put two and two together?
Some years ago there were two huge explosions in North Korea. Remember them? Trains derailed, fireballs bloomed; spectacular stuff. Some said the cargoes were military or sensitive, or…. Reports varied, then dried up.
Maybe we have a third option for our Iranian policy. If it works, we shall almost certainly never know anything about it.
The fly in the ointment: imagine Obama’s first intel briefing as the next president. “You idiots are going to do WHAT?? This is the Bay of Pigs all over again! You people are trying to set me up!! I am not inheriting this from that moron Bush, so all you CIA types get out of my Oval Office, and go update your resumes!”
Oops.
Oct 2, 2008 - 3:17 am 5. B Dubya:Iran could put a lot of troops on the ground, yes.
Oct 2, 2008 - 3:45 am 6. TomJW:In truth, unless the Russians have seriously upgraded the Iranian conventional war making capabilities, Iran’s army could just about fight Jordan to a draw. For all their agitprop, the Mullahs don’t have an effective conventional arms industry in country and their much ballyhooed new weapons are mostly vaporware.
Asymetrical warfare might work for them for a bit, but not having any real punch in the desert makes the Iranian rhetoric sound very hollow to me. Why else would these nutjobs seek nuclear armaments with so much fervor?
I expect the Israelis to act as our proxies in this matter. They will repeat the Iraqi nuclear plant strike in Iran. I believe the fly-over they staged over Iran last spring? was a dress rehersal and a warning to the Iranians, which the Iranians will ignore.
Why would we want to aviod it? Get to drilling our oil resources and then take them out. To start on the path to peace in the middle east, Iran has to be taken out. Damascus needs to go too. Then Gaza and the west Bank need to be told that their day is coming if there are any more attacks or attempts to attack Isreal.
When the result is getting crushed, even the hatefilled idiots in the Middle East will figure out a way to live with everyone else.
Oct 2, 2008 - 4:00 am 7. David P:The Soviet Empire separated, but never signed the divorce papers, lately they seem to be forcibly reconciling. While I agree that there are nontraditional grass roots methods of inspiring regime change, we did not pursue that avenue. America is left with little choice, we take our chances with a nuclear Iran, or we answer the threatening posture militarily. The cumbersome task of an effective strike has been in the planing for years. It’s of my opinion that American strategists, having drawn up the war plans, believe the Israeli’s would be incapable of multi-tasking and therefore extremely vulnerable. The USA can’t afford to get this wrong, leaving the mission to the Israeli’s would be a grave risk to both nations.
Oct 2, 2008 - 5:48 am 8. KC:It seems to me that the Iranian culture is such that they tend to see their leader as a father type figure and support him as long as he remains strong regardless of what he does, believes, etc. If I understand what I have read so far, the mullahs (i.e. Khomeini) didn’t win the support of enough people to take power because the people supported Islam, but rather because in the end he was the ’strong horse’. If this is true, you need a long time to (a) take advantage of existing political fault lines to drive their system to a point of instability where it can be tipped in another direction and (b) develop another strong leader without having the mullahs assassinate him. If Iran is truly within a year or so of having deliverable nuclear weapons, there simply isn’t time for a non-military solution to work. Whatever one thinks of the intelligence agencies, I have to believe they realize this. The real question is whether or not the U.S. President or Israeli Prime Minister is willing to take the political heat for a strike and if so, when.
Oct 2, 2008 - 6:41 am 9. DD:The Iranians that I know (they tend to call themselves Persians to separate themselves from the current regime) are smart, sophisticated and very proud of their long history as a civilized culture. Their country has been hijacked by the Ayatollahs. They must be assisted to end this crazy regime and bring their country back into the real world. Israel and the US are not their natural enemies. Their belligerency makes no strategic sense. End the regime and the conflict will go away.
Oct 2, 2008 - 6:57 am 10. Doc99:Benson … Precisely why the Israeli attack (if any) will commence soon after an Obama election.
Oct 2, 2008 - 7:14 am 11. Alireza:Who doesn’t know that this very Iran is NOT the Iran of 10, 15, 20 or 25 years ago. I know personally that it is not. It is this Iran that Amir Ahmadi of AIC is given U.S. Treasury Dept. permission to open an office in Iran!
There is a Persian proverb that says you can cut a man’s head with silk that he feels no pain.
With this regime, that’s how things are done. No wonder they get scared of people like Esfandiari visiting Iran. She is more threat to Iran that GPS laser-guided nano-precision triple-explosion atomic guided missiles. It’s been this kind of FAILED video game thinking that has brought U.S. to this miserable point. And it will get worse and I’m not seeing any bright future.
When a country like U.S. CAN NOT manages its own affair economically, socially and politically, how on earth can they manage and lead other nations? When there is retarded discussion about water boarding is torture or not by the ATTORNEY GENERAL of U.S. in Congress, how on earth you want people not laugh at U.S.? If you don’t get this part, then you know the problem is YOU. And if you don’t understand it, then for sure the problem is YOU.
I know tons of you right-wingers will respond with usual steroid-pumped up words that at the end of the day means NOTHING and does NOTHING, just as what has happened in the last 8 years.
Then you people think you can go and invade countries, bring them democracy, candy and balloons and then you scare the sh..t out of them. I mean look at this new guy General Odierno. This guy looks like he just want to explode people and he thinks he is doing nice things in Iraq. I mean if it was me, I would have put someone in his place that simply doesn’t look that scary with some hair. Yes, look and image matters.
And then some of you simple-minded on top of being narrow minded, while drinking double latte wanting to export freedom, democracy and all those nonsense that has cost U.S. over couple trillion dollars. And then you talk about free economy and zillion tons of other nonsense.
I read Bill Kristal article in NY Times, and you can see its like he is late on his medications. And then you people want to prescribe solution for Iran? It is no wonder U.S. has lost its impact and influence because deep within this country things are falling apart. It is like you keep telling others their pants are down, while you have no pants on!! LOL..
Defeating Iran required massive bombardment of Farsi version of U.S. revolution period. Stories. That’s how you convert Iran to a real democracy. You publish stories of Madison, and other Founding Fathers. You write and publicize what Jefferson story was all about. You invest money in making Farsi version of John Adam. Then many of you will see, how Iranian leadership and people will drool over such ideas to have them.
Sadly, as long as INCOMPETENT profit-driven people who manage and lead such funding sources run things, nothing close to it will happen. Just like Iraq that private firms have been sucking and sucking more money out of the U.S Treasury, the very same thing will happen in such concepts. No wonder in Afghanistan, it was Iran that QUICKLY, with LOW COST was able to start the Afghan TV station!!! Yet, you people KEEP FAILING and making things happen. Sorry I was wrong, you are EXCELLENT to cause IMMEDIATE DISASTER and DESTRUCTION at minimum time.
As long as people in this system always think What’s In It for Me, nothing will change.
Oct 2, 2008 - 7:38 am 12. Benson:Now, I look forward to read more amazing right-wing simple-minded comments.
Doc 99, you could be correct! LOL!
BTW, one thing that has been carefully hidden from press and public: the real capabilities of the USA’s most sophisticated non-nuclear “bunker-buster” bombs. The only ones on which info is available are all older designs that don’t go very deep. The new stuff could show up as “Israeli” designs “built in Israel.”
Oct 2, 2008 - 7:44 am 13. dan:The problem with the anti-attack crowd is that, even if the US deserves it or has no right meddling in the affairs of Iran, it doesn’t really ever address how it thinks Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons would affect its behavior, or the behavior of its neighbors.
Without claiming to know for sure, it seems to me that if I were Saudi Arabia or Turkey or Egypt, I’d surely want to have my own credible nuclear deterrent, and – if I also believed the USA was no longer a credible partner or superpower – I’d want to have my own nuclear arsenal. Otherwise, I would be looking at a country opposed to my own interests for various reasons, and left in the position that, even if I should defend myself in a conventional war, I would be open to nuclear attack on my own or two cities, or my one real economic resource (oil fields). I would also have to consider that maybe the typical UN or international response of letter-writing and verbal denunciation really would not be that much help to me while my oil fields were burning and the clients whose loyalty I secure by providing them with oil-money were getting quickly restless.
That Arab, predominantly self-consciously Sunni, neighbors would look at a Persian-Shiite Bomb in this way is a certainty.
Again, presuming that the USA is discreditted politically and militarily, how could these countries’ demands for indigenous nuclear weapons capability reasonably be denied to them? Even if you hate the USA and Israel, and even if you believe Iranians are wonderful people who do not like their government and cannot be held accountable for that government’s behavior – don’t you think that it’s reasonable to infer from *Iran’s* behavior that, if you were one of its neighbors, you have reason to worry that a nuclear Iran is cause for serious concern?
The main problem, Lefties, is that somehow your conclusion that the USA is at fault is all there is to it. That no governments or other cultures have a character and agency of their own, no habits of their own, virtually nothing that they are or do that is not accountable by the fact of US malevolence or incompetence. Do you really believe that?
When you see Ahmedinejad and his predecessors, and hear about Iran’s society, and understand the connections among Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah – do you really think this is just a response to US Imperialism, that it’s all just desperate self-defense by weaker nations? When you see the concern of Israelis, do you really just believe that concern is a figment of Zionist paranoia, some sort of manipulation?
What we non-Lefties don’t understand is what do *you* think Iran is doing with its nuclear program, what are its likely goals, how are they to be assessed? What, above all, *do* you really think an indigenous, viable nuclear program will do to Iran’s behavior?
And what about Russia’s provision of its nuclear technology – particularly in light of the recent Russia-Venezuela to provide *that* oil-sodden country with a nuclear program “for peaceful purposes”? Do you really believe Putin, Chavez, and Ahmedinejad?
Oct 2, 2008 - 8:14 am 14. David H:Alireza, as I am within the range of a Shabib 3, I think that is what it is called, I really am thinking along the lines of what is in it for me? Am I wrong to do so?
Yes the people want change in Iran, but the Islamic Republic has a very strong system of repression and they need a helping hand, would you stand up to be counted and end up beaten to a pulp in a state run prison and executed not long afterwards.
Personally I am to the point that I have accepted that a terrorist enabling state will have nuclear weapons, I believe that at some point Tel Aviv will be a smoking ruin, and that never again was really again but by someone else.
Actually the people of Iran are a much better bet then Iraq in terms of the democracy experiment, they have had 30 years of Islamic rule, they have a great pre-Islamic culture. But of course I am too stupid to understand and I am too dumb to have a book in my personal library on Persian culture.
Oct 2, 2008 - 8:57 am 15. Falshrmjgr:Good deconstruction of Baer. Better than my own, and light years ahead of that knucklehead Andrew Sullivan at the Atlantic. Thank you.
Oct 2, 2008 - 8:59 am 16. schnargley:All this saber-rattling makes me queasy. We of the west have been use to our 401k accounts growing nonstop as we sip our lattés while watching the Vagiana Monologues and are enchanted with the flood of interesting diverse cultures now inhabiting our neighborhoods. Such wonderful restaurant selections we have now! We do not like the dull sons and daughters of uneducated Middle America marching off to die in imperialistic schemes-for-oil. It upsets our stomachs and will drive health costs up (at least until we can achieve free health care.)
If we had only listened to John Lennon and Noam Chomsky, we wouldn’t have this situation. I say we revive and remix a good ole 60’s line: “Better dhimmie than deadie!”
Oct 2, 2008 - 10:50 am 17. Danny:Neo, stay off the crack.. Just say no.
In 2003, allegedly – I say allegedly because the source for this letter never saw it rather he heard about it – the Iranians sent a letter. However, this letter was not even close to what you claim. It “acknowledged” an issue with Hizbollah/Hamas and Israel not the same as a “grand bargain”, not even close. This was at the summit of US power projection when Iran thought it was next and under a far more moderate president.
The NIE says nothing of the sort, it claims “with high confidence” that Iran has suspended its nuclear weapons programme. Note that even Al-Baradi is not happy with the answers coming out of Iran and he is on the record as being strongly against any intervention.
When did Livni claim that Iran represented no threat? Or is this another case of twisted words?
What “Israeli bases” did the Russians discover? That some ex-IDF were training some of the special forces in Georgia? They train lots of people. What where those people going to do? Hike to Isfahan?
If you are so confident Iran represents why do you feel the need to lie?
Oct 2, 2008 - 11:19 am 18. myth buster:Schnargley, our military is the most educated in the world. All of our enlisted personnel have at least a high school diploma or equivalent, and all of our officers have at least an undergraduate degree.
As for being dhimmies, I’d fight to the death to avoid that fate.
Oct 2, 2008 - 11:36 am 19. Fat Man:Don’t worry the US will elect BHO in November. He will invite Amadrasdinnerjacket to his coronation. Iran will nuke Israel shortly thereafter, and in the nuclear exchange that follows, the US will be forced to turn the entire Middle East into radioactive glass.
Oct 2, 2008 - 12:49 pm 20. cedarford:While I disagree with much of Ali Reza’s liberal spin on matters, I am forced to agree with him on this:
When a country like U.S. CAN NOT manages its own affair economically, socially and politically, how on earth can they manage and lead other nations?
America must put it’s own house in order before we even think of new wars of “liberation of freedom-loving peoples” on the other side of the planet.
I think the American public, seeing a trillion in money and 40,000 casualties from “liberating” what we were told by the Neocons would be a cakewalk to free what informed Exiles told them were peoples “hungry for democracy” – are profoundly skeptical and unsupportive of another Excellent Adventure in Iran. And don’t believe for a second Neocon assurances that “we will be welcomed as liberators of the Real Iranians”.
Apparantly, the “word” is the now near-powerless Bush has capitulated to Secretary Gates and denied Zionists air rights over Iraq unless Malaki and the Iraqis agree and become complicit with Israel. Or JDAMs. Or tanker planes. Anything that was on the table is now off the table until the next President is settled in. The Neocons political backers are now a rump movement in the Republican Party fighting for their political lives. And even those that place Israel 1st, above the American People, know that a unilateral attack on Iran would block the Gulf for a month or more, shattering the global economy with 250 a barrel oil – or oil no longer available at any price as it goes off private market to “deals” between nations on who gets allocated what.
The US is now deep in a colossal political/fiscal mess of it’s own making, facing profound economic hardship. Our military is tapped out in key ground force, air logistics, C3 aspects. Neocons ignore it ISN’T 2003, and the days of the Great Hegemon and stupid analogies to Munich as why we must start 3-4 new wars – are long gone…..
The root problem is Iran is surrounded by hostile neighbors and has a population that is 98% supportive of it’s nuclear power program, if not the weapons part of it. Until Iran’s need for strategic parity is met, it’s energy future better secured, this problem will continue. It cannot be bombed away.
Oct 2, 2008 - 1:11 pm 21. Chaz:The Turks, Saudis, UAE, Iraqis, even Iran have talked about a nuclear, chem, bio WMD free Middle East. Unless they fall under larger power’s protective nuclear umbrellas, and final borders are agreed to – expect them to reject the present status quo.
Whatever happened to ‘Live free or die!’?
Oct 2, 2008 - 3:00 pm 22. Ira Zad:Whatever happened to ‘Til the Last Man, and the last round!’?
Whatever happened to ‘Give me liberty or give me death!’?
If Israel doesn’t have nukes already, I have a proposal for Iran:
“Drop your nuke program, or we give Israel one.”
Same for North Korea. Non-Proliferation is a joke if people like Russia are all on board to support it.
DD and Doc99 — I agree.
Meanwhile, more Iran appeasement just OK’d by Condi Rice and Paulsen(corporate reverse Robin Hood himself): they are sending the traitor Iran regime agent in residence: AmriAhmadi to Tehran(for the nth time) to open his damn AIC office there: http://www.thenational.ae/article/20081001/FOREIGN/467743493/1002
So much for your Axis of Evil, Mr. “W”; you really fouled it up on Iran. You & your Iran “bullshit policy” leash mistress, the foreign policy idiotress Condi Rice.
Let the tactical nuclear bombs fall on the Iranian regime power centers right after B.Hussein O. is elected on Nov. 4th– This is our last chance. And since we have no balls left in Washngton, Israel has to start it.
Oct 2, 2008 - 5:32 pm 23. narciso:It’s really dissapointing because Baer was very informative on the failure of negotiations; during the Iran initiative that put is too close to Feridoun Nezhi Neshad; the IRGC official later charged as the mastermind of the Buenos Aires mission.
Oct 2, 2008 - 9:30 pm 24. Marc Malone:The direct connection of IRCG officials with
hezbollah (aka future defense minister Shamkhani). He also outlined how our ‘good friend’ Quatar’s al Thani princes sheltered
KSM while he was under indictment. At some point, he became more consumed with anti-Israeli sentiment (as seen in the pre Iraq
afterword of “See no Evil”)his hatred of Chalabi, and our refusal to totally target
Saudi Arabia. His “Sleeping with the Devil”
follow up, seems to ignore the Wahhabi fight
in Iraq. His alternate history take on 9/11; “Blow the House Down” has a bizarre premise, it was a actually an Iranian operation using ‘false flag’ AQ, like KSM, and it was all accidentally funded by neocons. He later pops up in the infamous New Yorker piece; where Hersh tried to blame
Fatah al Islam on the Lebanese govt; saying tHezbollah will the Maronite’s protectors
The problem is that oil prices are making them strong and us weak. The jackals respond to weakness: Putin; Ahmadenijad; Chavez, etc…. They’re all acting up, now that we’re weakened. That’s why the talk of having to live with a nuclear Iran.
Did we have more oil production coming on line in the immediate future, this wouldn’t be happening. If we were to attack, we’d have to take and hold the oilfields and such right away, then rely on the strategic reserve to keep prices down until we can bring the Iranian supply back on line.
This means, we can’t just bomb the stuffing out of them, sadly. Making most of the Middle-East into glass is just a (delightful) fantasy. (Sigh)
Oct 2, 2008 - 10:49 pm 25. Winston:How fitting. I just wrote a harsh harsh review for his terrible book on Amazon.com. His book really made me puke!
Oct 2, 2008 - 11:41 pm 26. Russian Bear:“… unlike us, Israel is threatened with potential annihilation from a nuclear-armed Iran”.
What a modest statement! …unlike us
It looks like some Americans have already overcome their fears. Remember Saddam Hussein “who was a mortal threat to the USA”?
Mind searching for nukes in Iran? It is the WMD after all, kind of like Saddam had… What? Too costly?
If seriously, why are you picking on Iran? What the mullahs or Ahmadenijad say is just rhetorics. Political leaders are less suicidal than any ordinary people, even if they are mullahs. Because they are in charge for their nations. And this is a huge responsibility. Everybody knows that the USA stands behind Israel, and would hit hard with all the means available any nation which decided to attack Israel. So, Iran will not. Even if Iran gets a nuclear bomb. Because even with the bomb Iran does not have any chances against the USA.
Abandon your phobias. Or which is more accurate your propaganda. We heard something like that before Iraq was attacked.
Oct 2, 2008 - 11:49 pm 27. Ira Zad:Bauer is a sell out to the Liberal media. He may even get a post under a Hussein Obama presidency. He is for appeasement and surrender to the Iran mullahs, just like Biden, Kerry, pro-Islamist Hussein Obama, M. Albright, Jimmy Carter, George Soros, and the rest of the European agenda leftist loonies are.
Oct 2, 2008 - 11:57 pm 28. Ira Zad:It’s so fitting that a yahoo named “Russian Bear” supports the Islamic Republic of Terror in Iran, and the Turds of Tehran that is the murderous regime of tehran; just like Putin is the murderous head of the garbage Russian Mafia regime(now, with his puppet Mafia Bitch Boy Medveve. Russian Bear obviously either works for KGB and Putin or has wet dreams about the revival of the Russian Evil Empire with help from the Terrorist Turds in Iran regime –
Got Pollonium?
When the tactical nukes fall on Russian-made Bushehr and Natanz sites, try not to get too depressed about it Russian Bitch!
Oct 3, 2008 - 12:35 pm 29. Jeff:What people don’t understand is why some of us are so against the current Republican ticket, but we have an obligation to fight against history of ever being repeated again. Many of us out here are not fighting for the Democratic campaign but are fighting against an ideology.
1) An ideology that completely mirrors the ideology of this past 8 years.
2) An ideology that recognizes the few while completely disregarding the masses.
3) An ideology that believes in taking military action against Iraq, an incident that is completely unrelated to 9/11, without solidifying our claims beforehand. In the present, we have found no evidence of weapons of mass destructions or a tie to Osama Bin Laden. The devastation of this war has cost us over 4,000 of our brave troops and counting, over 1/2 trillion dollars of taxpayer’s money and counting, and over 1 million Iraqi lives unrelated to the terrorists or insurgency.
Cost of the Iraq War — http://www.nationalpriorities.org/costofwar_home
4) An ideology that still believes that the Iraq War is the right war on terrorism when the Afghanistan War should had been the right war on terrorism, where Osama Bin Laden actually was until he slipped into the mountains and into Pakistan’s territory now. The Iraq War also diverted our attention away from the Afghanistan War. We now have extended our resources in two separate places and have heightened our risk to our troops, our expenses, and creating another dilemma that will take quite some time to finalize. The Iraq War will not go away overnight and it is now our obligation to see it all the way through for God knows how many more years. This has also been the most unpopular war in the eyes of the world’s communities.
5) An ideology that believes that we are at our safest state since 9/11, when a recent terrorist plot was still trying to enter Great Britain’s airports with liquid explosives heading directly to us, but thankfully the plot was foiled. While in Afghanistan, the terrorists are regrouping and strengthening and we have recently suffered another high casualty to our troops yet again within this past month. We currently have the least amount of alliances in the world’s communities due to this unpopular Iraq War. True national securities are the ties that bind us to our world’s communities and the ties that bind them to us.
6) An ideology that vetted one of the most inexperience VP ticket in history, from foreign policies to national defense. If God forbids that anything happens to this President if elected and is stricken with illness, this VP will be running the country. For a more compelling look at Sarah Palin’s VP readiness, please look at these links below —
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=loUHRv3ipLE
http://www.salon.com/opinion/walsh/election_2008/2008/09/30/palin_gaffes/
7) An ideology that believes in “the fundamentals of our economy are strong” while we are facing the highest mortgage foreclosure crisis, high unemployment rate, and the largest collapse of our financial infrastructures since The Great Depression of 1929.
This is an ideology that many of us in America are against. Whether this ideology is in the Republican or Democratic ticket is not the main issue but the fact is that America does not want to fall into another 4 more years of devastation. We cannot afford this anymore.
Oct 3, 2008 - 4:17 pm 30. a Duoist:Clearly there is no consensus on this blog–or anywhere in the world–on what to do about a nuclear Iran. As long as we bluster to and fro, for and against, military strikes or diplomacy as options with Iran, we will eternally fail to build a consensus on what to do.
Unanimity is impossible, but developing a consensus is possible, IF first the lethal nature of the threat from Iran is dispassionately and objectively discussed. That desire for an objective analysis and discussion is missing in the blogosphere, although the Woolsey/Holbrooke/Ross/Wallace gambit mght make a sincere effort.
The threat from Iran is not a nuclear weapon, nor is it a gun, or a knife, or bare knuckles. The threat to the world is from the political psychology of Iran’s governance, so toxic that it does not matter what weapon they have in their arsenal: they are driven to use any weapon they possess against the eternal enemy they seek.
Until there is a consensus about the nature of Iran’s form of governance, there will never be a consensus about what to do about that governance. Not until we come to understand ‘theofascism’ in Iran will a consensus be possible about “what to do.”
Oct 3, 2008 - 4:18 pm 31. slade:its like patton said “were gonna have to fight them sooner or later it might as well be now while we have th army over there to do it ” (and before iran gets nukes. )
Oct 3, 2008 - 10:30 pm 32. Alireza:It’s amazing how in matter of weeks all polls are showing McCain is going to lose big.
If that happens it’s only because God loves this country and wants to give this great nation another chance to come back. And also because people have been shafted so bad and so deep that they can’t take it anymore.
Don’t you people feel insulted and humiliated with Palin debate? Come on! Be honest! I know it’s hard to find honest people on the right, but while no one is looking, don’t feel you’ve been trashed by all those STUPID, MEANINGLESS statement Palin made? If I were you, I would have felt like she was talking to a retard.
Remember, Ahmadinejad and the ultra right people in Iran brainwash the Hezbullah people very much the same way. The difference is they use BS Islamic concepts, and here they keep BSing people about abortion, gay marriage, deregulation and other nonsense.
McCain’s losing is taken seriously in Tehran, so here comes Ahmadinejad to his rescue! Now Iran’s IAEA Rep. says if we get assurance on the nuclear fuel, we’ll be able to let go of enrichment, which is the same as what Bush and Russia offered couple years ago.
Why all these changes? Ahmadinejad knows SO WELL, SO CLEARLY despite all XXX rate profanity between U.S.-Iran-Israel, Ahmadinejad finds Republicans much much much more accommodating than a Democratic administration.
They know Democrats will be pushing on human right issues in Iran, UNLIKE Bush. So you people keep hallucinating how Barack HUSSEIN Obama will do worse than Bush. Some of you backwarded people are so racist, so tiny-thinkers that a middle name like HUSSEIN makes you wet yourself! GROW UP!
So I’m still feeling very fishy and wonder about October surprise that may happen before the election. With Republicans, any unethical and dirty games are not only possible, but its business as usual. Did you know only Fox news has been given permission to have office in Tehran? Not NBC, not CBS or ABC, but only Fox!!!
Now once again, you right winger start hallucinations that McCain will do much better than Bush and bunch of other nonsense.
While you are at it, I came across this beautiful Iranian girl Mahtab Farid who just visited Iran and posted her pictures from Iran and her side on IAEA. Here is her link (I also pasted in the above URL)
http://washingtontehran.blogspot.com/
Oct 4, 2008 - 8:09 am 33. TBird:Ali reza -
I think your ideas of sending Farsi version of ” U.S. revolution period” and “stories of Madison, and other Founding Fathers. You write and publicize what Jefferson story was all about. You invest money in making Farsi version of John Adam.” Is excellent.
Sad for you to hear tho, that you stand a much better chance of that happening under McCain than Obama.
Oct 4, 2008 - 8:38 am 34. TBird:I think this is all we need to know about Mr Baer —
“I myself think a deal can be cut with Iran. During the last 30 years, Iran has gone from a terrorist, revolutionary power to far more rational, calculating regional hegemon.”
well, that and he seems to have the backing of Seymour Hersh.
Oct 4, 2008 - 8:55 am 35. j green:So despite his own evidence documenting Iran is more belligerent than ever, and his other books which illustrate the 30 years of Iran waging war against the U.S. and Israel and manipulating the Middle East through terrorism, Baer somehow draws the conclusion that there is a deal to be made with Iran?
That his book has no straight line of rantionality makes it a waste of time to read.
Oct 4, 2008 - 1:20 pm 36. Marc Malone:Ali Reza – another mideasterner endorsing Obama: another reason to vote for McCain. These guys don’t know how much they are reviled. Every time they open their stupid mouths, they hurt their preferred candidate. Keep up the fine work, Ali. You’re now the McCain camp’s BFF.
Oct 4, 2008 - 1:35 pm 37. Len Frankel:“…a better way, which is to support the Iranian people”
Talk about “wish fulfillment” that would take years to fulfill, if at all. And what do you think the Mullahs will be spending that time doing? – perfecting their atomic weapons and building more jails to house political prisoners. Silly, sappy nonsense from the people who brought you the “quick Iraq war” and the “new democratic Middle East.”
Oct 5, 2008 - 1:33 pm 38. SAF:The Russians are smart. They learned from Ronald Reagan that they could be buried by money. Now they have taken to fix their economy and bury ours through high oil prices.
So my money is on Russia provoking the Iranians into something rash, for which there are reprisals far and wide in the middle east thereby reducing the available oil supply making the Russian supply more valuable. Look at all the technical support and military hardware they have sent to Iran in recent years.
Zero chance for peace in the middle east. Last guy who made the big attempt, Anwar Sadat got assassinated. Having the US and Israel greatly reduce Iranian oild benefits the Russians at no cost.
Oct 5, 2008 - 3:06 pm 39. Alireza:Marc Malone,
So you are saying: “another mideasterner endorsing Obama: another reason to vote for McCain”
Marc Malone, you are rusted-part of U.S. mentality that needs to be flushed, and I hear the flushing water already!
You’ll find how wrong you and people like you have been. So what’s the positive thing for you going? I’d say your ignorance is one way have kept your mental evaporation in delay mode. So in order you live pain free, I think you have no choice but to keep up your ignorance.
Oct 5, 2008 - 9:41 pm 40. David W. Lincoln:I remember when in the days after 9/11, Ann Coulter made the suggestion that Christian missionaries are needed in Muslim countries. For her candor, she was booted from the pages
of another outlet.
Unless we shake off political correctness, the
Oct 8, 2008 - 9:50 am 41. Ken:biggest weapon available is nuclear warfare. Other than a tremendous amount of hard work by
men and women in military uniform.
Well, oil prices are down, the Iranians are complaining about it, the Russians are losing a lot of their discretionary income. So, I think the issue about high oil prices and “over a barrel” is removed.
To me, in a lot of ways, Iranian leadership has kind of painted itself into a corner. If a nuke goes off (in a terrorist attack), they’ll get blamed (fairly or not) for it, and suffer the consequences. If they use the nuke themselves, they’ll get hit back (how could Israel not?). If they don’t use them, then they’ll look like cowards/losers to their own fanatics, and like they wasted a whole lotta money for nothing to their moderates.
If only a ’shouting match’ happens, where shipping rates in the PG go up a lot (due to a couple of mines going off in the sealanes), who has minesweepers, and who could declare that they’ll sweep lanes for oil-tanker convoys? The USN. (very little, but that’s a whole lot more than nothing). Who’d believe the Iranians. In fact, if a couple of mines went off, the US would actually come out ahead by over-emphasizing the problem, because then the insurance rates for tankers that aren’t in mine-sweeping convoys would go way up, and then nobody’d buy Iranian oil.
If a shooting war starts, then the Iranians might be able to stop oil shipment for days/weeks, but how long would their SSM launchers really last against the USN, UAVs, USAF, and the Sunni governments, before the launchers were eliminated, or simply that the risk had been determined, and factored into the insurance calculations? (just like they are with the Somalia pirates – it’s just “a cost of business”). In the meantime, Iranian oil shipments go to zero, their foreign investments are frozen, their government goes bankrupt. And most importantly, their mullah’s cash flow goes to zero, which means their mansions in Switzerland don’t get paid for.
Oct 10, 2008 - 9:41 pm