Now he’s had his first real intelligence briefing, and it was probably an eye-opener, because it’s quite a scene out there. I hope he’s got someone close to him with the wit and the nerve to tell the president-elect that the intelligence community is also a mess, and that he can be morally certain the real world is even worse than the one he’s just been briefed about.
The real world is so frightening that I can’t imagine Hillary Clinton will be foolish enough to accept the job of secretary of state; anyone who takes that job is almost certain to fail. How can anyone believe that he or she has a good chance of dealing with:
–the expanding anti-American alliance, now including Russia, Iran, Venezuela, Ecuador, China, North Korea and Syria (remember that the “Axis of Evil” had only three charter members);
–the global financial/economic crisis, which is almost surely in a relatively early stage;
–allies wimping out all over. No one seems to have the stomach (and none has the wherewithal) to mount a more aggressive campaign in Afghanistan, which Obama has promised to do.
And that’s only the top of the list. The Iranian nuclear project is still there, simmering away, as the mullahs almost daily threaten the destruction of Israel and the United States. Iran claims to have tested yet another (long-range) missile, and shown us photographs. The State Department, as always, clicked its tongue, but since so many of these proclamations have proven false in the past, there’s no reason I know of to take this one any more seriously than the earlier hoaxes.
What IS clear about Iran could and should be good news for Obama and his team (whoever they are): the regime shows every sign of being in a paranoid panic over the hatred the Iranian people feel for the mullahs. Hence we have recently seen a huge drill in the major cities, wherein tens of thousands of security forces rehearse their actions in the event of an insurrection; new repression against major non-Persian ethnic groups, including a ban against the use of the Azeri language; and a mounting tempo of executions.
Yet so far as I can tell, neither Bush nor Obama has the slightest intention of supporting democratic revolution in Iran, which is the key ingredient to any successful American policy in the region. Both Bush and Obama insist on seeing Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan as separate policy matters, a failure of strategic vision that lies at the heart of our failed war plan for Iraq in the first place, and which deflected our attention from Afghanistan long enough to permit the Taliban and its Iranian supporters to rebuild their forces.
Until our policy makers finally come to terms with the hard truth that we are in a regional war, and that it has to be waged on a regional scale, we will fail to win the overall struggle. Yes, Iraq looks good today, and although there is still a curious unwillingness to say it in Washington, we defeated al Qaeda in Iraq. But it can all come apart quite quickly if we “declare victory and go home,” because the Iranians and the Syrians will step up the terror war in Iraq.
It will be interesting to see who Obama picks to “manage” the Iranian time bomb. My guess is that he will take people who have been wrong from the beginning. I’m betting that he will find people from the Carter years, the ones who favored the fall of the shah and rather liked the Ayatollah Khomeini.
Any takers?
PJM Home
Accomplice to Evil: Iran and the War Against the West
The Iranian Time Bomb: The Mullah Zealots’ Quest for Destruction
The War Against the Terror Masters: Why It Happened. Where We Are Now. How We’ll Win.
Tocqueville on American Character: Why Tocqueville’s Brilliant Exploraton of the American Spirit is as Vital and Important Today as it was Nearly Two Hundred Years Ago
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Freedom Betrayed: How America led a Global Democratic Revolution, Won the Cold War and Walked Away
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46 Comments
1. Anthony (Los Angeles):Michael, do you mean “North Korea” instead of “North Vietnam” in that Axis of Evil reference?
And do you think the falling price of oil, if it continues through the next 6 months to a year, will push the regime in Tehran into a crisis?
Nov 14, 2008 - 9:51 pm 2. David Thomson:We are in deep excrement. Barack Obama is a self hating American who perceives the United States as richly deserving of the “blow-back” of its enemies. After all, we supposedly crapped on them. Obama is an existentially committed appeaser. It is philosophically his default position. May God help us. The intellectually shallow Obama’s ineptness is going to result in a lot of blood shed. And no, the odds of a few bright and sensible advisors assisting Obama will be of little help. At the end of the day, the buck stops at the desk of the commander-in-chief—and that individual had better have their act together. Obama is merely another Chaucey Gardner. He is not even close to being ready to play in the big leagues.
Nov 14, 2008 - 11:40 pm 3. Carl Sesar:We are in deep excrement. However, Barack Obama is no “self hating American.” He is “a citizen of the world.” He’s not a “committed appeaser,” but a quiet supporter of America’s enemies. His default position is to do nothing, to be “present,” a strategy not at all inept. It allows bad things to happen of their own accord. But he will actively do whatever he can as president to weaken our economy and defense, in the name of improving it, of course.
Nov 15, 2008 - 10:21 am 4. David Thomson:He’s the linchpin of the “Party of Defeat.” It’s the loyal opposition that had better get their act together and be ready to play in the big leagues now.
“Barack Obama is no “self hating American.” He is “a citizen of the world.”
They are one and the same thing. Someone claiming to be a citizen of the world is subtly and dishonestly really saying they are traitors to their own country. And you are right—Barack Obama will seek to actively weaken our economy. This is a core Marxist doctrine. The “great leader” needs an emergency to justify the grabbing of more power.
Many yuppie elites who attended our “best” universities placed their faith in Obama’s Harvard credentials. He supposedly cannot be too extreme “because Obama is one of us.” These useful idiots will not realize their foolishness before it’s too late. The U.S. Justice Department also seems reluctant to investigate the widespread fraud in Obama’s presidential campaign. In other words, we may have already slipped into a quasi-fascist dictatorship. The odds are only 50/50 that America can be saved.
Nov 15, 2008 - 11:07 am 5. Carl Sesar:“They are one and the same thing.”
We see pretty much eye to eye, then. But I’m not altogether sure America is his own country. Only a valid birth certificate can show that. If it proves he’s a native-born citizen, then you’re right about what you say Obama is really saying. But if the birth certificate shows otherwise, he’s not our president after all, and he’s who’s in deep excrement. The US Justice Department’ll be plenty busy shoveling that holy mess, I betcha!
Nov 15, 2008 - 12:56 pm 6. David Thomson:“Only a valid birth certificate can show that.”
Please drop this line of argumentation. The theory that Barack Obama was not born an American citizen—is a losing proposition. Even conservative constitutional scholars like Hugh Hewitt say that this is a waste of time. We must instead focus on substantial issues like the rampant credit card fraud that took place in Obama’s presidential campaign.
Those contending that Obama is not really an American citizen remind me of the individuals who refuse to pay federal taxes because of their peculiar interpretation of the U.S. constitution. This is a road best left untravelled. It just leads to a lot of grief. After all, we have a lot of really solid stuff to throw at Obama! Why waste our efforts on the highly debatable ones?
Nov 15, 2008 - 1:30 pm 7. a Duoist:If Hillary Clinton is the Obama choice for State, a more aggressive policy toward Iran might be possible. But if both Afghanistan and Iran become subjects of a more aggressive Obama administration, Europe is going to be deeply disappointed.
What is needed is a policy toward Iran well-grounded in an analysis which trumps Europe’s pacifism and Russia’s commercial interests. Woolsey has helped form a new group opposed to a nuclear Iran; perhaps they can supply a fresh, rigorous analysis.
Nov 15, 2008 - 1:31 pm 8. Carl Sesar:“Please drop this line of argumentation.”
Supreme Court Justice Souter has ordered Obama to deliver a valid birth certificate to the Court by December 1st. I can wait that long, even if it is a waste of time. The question is why hasn’t Barry handed it over by now? If it turns out to be legit, fine, case closed. Hugh Hewitt may be right, but maybe not. Finding out one way or another isn’t at the expense of an investigation into voter fraud etc., it’s only one more thing, that’s all. And it’s good just to force Obama to come up with it, and get him off his high horse for once. Who the hell does he think he is? President-elect, so what? Until he forks it over, he’s a snot nose, that’s what he is.
Nov 15, 2008 - 2:20 pm 9. frank:I’ve been reading Michael for years, includng all the non-fiction going
Nov 15, 2008 - 2:26 pm 10. David W. Lincoln:back to Iran-Contra and I simply don’t get this “supporting the Iranian
Opposition” mantra. Over and over it comes down to radio broadcasts, printed material and what-all. These guys have been killing for 30 years, exterminating opponents every day, persecuting minorities, hanging petty offenders as a domestic deterrent, readying internal police to quell ANYTHING that even smells of inssurection, arming and financing full-fledge terror across the Middle East, threatening Tel-Aviv daily, playing and killing in Irag. Student uprisings? They’ll kill them all. Sanctions?They could care less if half the population dies. Yes of course, we need analysis and support! Russian and Venezuela? That’s what bad guys DO.
Those who refuse to see, well they have a tough time seeing. Such is the price for ego
being substituted for good judgment.
I guess Aristotle, Santayana, and Henry Ford were right – what we learn from history is that some refuse to learn from history.
It makes you wonder how Churchill and Eden felt from 1945 – 1951 when Clement Atlee was in the Prime Minister’s chair over at Whitehall. Then again, I think we will discover that.
Nov 15, 2008 - 3:59 pm 11. Winston:Is this 1976 in your opinion?
Nov 15, 2008 - 4:34 pm 12. Objective Scrutator:I think it’s high time that neoconservative intellectuals start pressing Obama to appoint some people with bona fide foreign policy knowledge. Bill Kristol is always a good choice, although I’m not sure if Obama would realize that he’s a solid man for the job. Obama would probably pick Norman Finkelstein or some other Nazi to be his foreign policy advisor, though.
Hillary is an interesting choice for Secretary of State (as Obama Administration officials have stressed), but would she take it? And, more importantly, why would he want to appoint her to that position? The only position I can see her accepting is the Secretary of Health and Human Services, and she’d cause Obama to get creamed next election. Obama doesn’t really have any use for Hillary, other than to pacify Larry Johnson and the rest of the PUMA clowns. Their numbers are negligible, and they are stupid.
I think there’s a good chance Obama will pick Chuck Hagel for this position, which would be even worse than Clinton.
We need to convince the DLCers and the Republicans in Congress that we simply cannot talk with an enemy nation that wants to nuke every country in range that doesn’t support the chador or the burqa. Iran, unlike bin Laden (today, anyways), is fully capable of carrying out another terrorist attack. I think that talking with Iran would reduce the respect other countries accord us, since that Odinist Jimmy Carter already allowed Iran to overthrow the Shah and replace him with an outright Islamist. The reality is that, sooner or later, we’re going to have to carpet bomb their nation, if we want to keep them from developing nuclear weapons. I also think that President Bush needs to coax the CIA into action there.
Nov 16, 2008 - 12:38 am 13. Pajamas Media » How Will Obama Manage the Iranian Time Bomb?:[...] Read the entire piece here. [...]
Nov 16, 2008 - 2:26 am 14. cedarford:I think Iran is way down the list of priorities of Americans. The support for starting a new war while we are ensnarled in Iraq and Afghanistan is just about nil unless Iran attacks. The global economic catastrophe and its effects on Americans completely overshadow peripheral matters involving minor nations in the ME. The Iranians also have some major problems with the catastrophe. The average Iranian is as, if not more so, preoccupied with their nation and family’s economic well-being and future.
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As for Russia meddling in our backyard, the only real surprise is it took them so long to respond to our provocations in their backyard.
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The nutty talk of Obama’s birth certificate should end..it does not serve the Republicans or the conservatives to spew out looney theory. There is no “Souter Order” to product a birth cert to SCOTUS. Berg is now being investigated by the Bar for misleading public statements such as saying SCOTUS was backing his demands. Souter just said, come back on Dec 1st and restate all Party’s arguments in light of the lower court dismissal of the lawsuit.
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I guess Aristotle, Santayana, and Henry Ford were right – what we learn from history is that some refuse to learn from history.
It makes you wonder how Churchill and Eden felt from 1945 – 1951 when Clement Atlee was in the Prime Minister’s chair over at Whitehall. Then again, I think we will discover that.
Satayana’s quote is the greatest cliche` of all time, trotted out when some college freshman and hack journalist wants to say something “profound”, not realizing a million other college freshmen and hack journalists have used it. Ford more accurately declared “History is bunk”. Nothing happens again exactly as it did in the past, and Ford though man makes his own destiny.
Nov 16, 2008 - 4:10 am 15. Slveryder:Churchill was booted from power because by war’s end, the country was sick of him and his poor leadership after 1943. He spent is time not watching Atlee, but writing and watching the contents of one brandy snifter after the other disappear down his throat. That might be the best advice to our failed “American Churchill” as he heads for Texas – write stuff, take up drinking again to pass the time..because like Sir Winston..he’s a done chapter.
Speaking as one of the few conservative college students in a sea of liberals, if Obama or any American President tried to support change in Iran, I think they would loose their job.
According to my professor (who is a liberal/greenie), the United States is already responsible for the mess Iran is in because we helped overthrow the pre-Khomeini regime and handed the country to the mullahs. Therefore, if the US does anything else in Iran, we’ll just screw it up further. I think Obama would see a huge backlash in his electoral base if he intervened in Iran because he would be seen as “exporting democracy” just like Bush.
Never mind that it makes sense, never mind that it can WORK.
Nov 16, 2008 - 4:40 am 16. JK:“Until our policy makers finally come to terms with the hard truth that we are in a regional war, and that it has to be waged on a regional scale, we will fail to win the overall struggle.”
Two choices it seems to me considering the above: if it is indeed a regional war, that is-from Syria, through Iraq, across the Persian Gulf, through Iran, then Afghanistan-nevermind the Pakistani Tribal Areas, that means one of two options.
#1. A draft on a WWII scale. Universal, no deferments. One of my two Grandsons is already on his fourth deployment. The other is preparing for his third. I’m certain every Pajama’s Media journalist has every single military eligible child (or grandchild) already either in theater or preparing for the next deployment. I salute you all.
#2. Nuclear strikes across this regional theater. This would of course entail that each and every good American citizen be also prepared for WWII type rationing since A. All oil stocks normally available from Middle Eastern sources would be irradiated and B. All personnel working in oil production industries would be dead.
Santayana’s full quote, “Progress, far from consisting in change, depends on retentiveness.
When change is absolute there remains no being to improve and no direction is set for possible improvement: and when experience is not retained, as among savages, infancy is perpetual. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”
Of course there are disagreements where Intelligence places Iran’s recently reputed missile tests:
http://www.janes.com/news/
It’s pretty easy to throw up big impressive statements on a website. It’s quite another to lose your well, easygoing attitudes about sending everyone else’s kids (perhaps yourselves) to engage as you might think.
I’ve already been once. But if everyone goes heck, I’d take my chances on a second round.
Nov 16, 2008 - 5:47 am 17. Chris in Toronto:My hope is that President Bush follows the post-presidential precedent set by the asshole Carter—that he keeps his oar in the water and makes as many waves for the new, ahem, president Obama. Republican style, that is.
Nov 16, 2008 - 6:05 am 18. big mistake:Iran has test launched a naval-based missile with a 300 km range, state media reported on 4 August, warning that it would be able to easily close the Strait of Hormuz, through which 40 per cent of the world’s crude oil supplies pass.
Both of their little yellow submarines will be armed with the new missiles.
Iran is so desperate to get oil back up to 100 dollars a barrel look for them to say anything.
Another dictator/socialists government that has to give checks to its people once a month,
or the people will hang their leaders.
If oil prices continue at these levels,
Nov 16, 2008 - 6:21 am 19. ~Paules:Amadinnernutjobs days are numbered.
President-elect Obama has a chance to turn the tables on Iran, but the window of opportunity will be short-lived. Domestic oil drilling in the US has become a national security issue. We can cut off funding our enemies, Putin and Chavez included, by suppressing the price of crude. “Drill, baby, drill” has implications now for foreign policy.
The plan will work only as long as the economic recession contributes by limiting demand. Part of the answer is a realistic domestic energy policy on all fronts including coal, nuclear and alternatives. Mr. Obama can use the bully pulpit to urge conservation. Who would not agree that squeezing our enemies economically is preferable to a shooting war? A lack of export income might cause both Iran and Venezuala to collapse internally.
Of course, lower energy costs are anathema to the green agenda. I doubt Mr. Obama has the wisdom or courage to make a 180 degree turn from established left-wing orthodoxy. It will be a missed opportunity if he should choose to fight mythical phantoms like global warming.
We have till the end of the recession to get our domestic energy policy right and reap the foreign policy benefits. Once the world economy begins to recover, the price of oil will rebound. How ironic that America now has the power to play the oil card back at our enemies. Let us pray that our president-elect has the vision to see it. And the courage to act in the national interest.
Nov 16, 2008 - 7:21 am 20. Terry Gain:@17 Chris
I hope you’re wrong. In fact I know you’re wrong. Bush loves his country too much to pull a Carter.
Bush will retire to Texas and watch his popularity soar. And Obama will do nothing about Iran. In this respect, Cedarford is right.
The American people want another break from history. They’re going to get it. They are also going to see up close and personal how socialism works. Perhaps in four years time the American public will try to figure things out for themselves rather than let the media convince them that up is down and pacification is war.
And yes, people should drop the question of Obama’s eligibility as soon as his birth certificate is authenticated.
Nov 16, 2008 - 7:44 am 21. SAF:The Russians are all about raising the price of oil. So they will continue to goad and support the Iranians into some foolishness with Israel. Their posturing about missile shield deployment is strictly on behalf of the Iranians so that Iranian missile capability will be an effective threat. No amount of defense shield would defend Europe from a determined Russian missile offensive.
Once the Iranians have the bomb many strategic initiatives are taken off the table. Having the bomb for Iran means they are freer to deploy terrorist and conventional forces without having to worry about large scale retaliatory attacks. Would the first or second Iraq war occurred if Sadam Hussein actually had a bomb? I doubt it.
All indications are that Obama will allow this situation to develop. The Israelis face a different reality.
My prediction for 2009: Diminishing of middle east oil due to straight of Hormuz shut down or significant damage to oil infrastructure or both and increased Russian oil output and contract deals.
Nov 16, 2008 - 7:45 am 22. Terry Gain:“Once the Iranians have the bomb many strategic initiatives are taken off the table. Having the bomb for Iran means they are freer to deploy terrorist and conventional forces without having to worry about large scale retaliatory attacks. Would the first or second Iraq war [have]occurred if Sad[d]am Hussein actually had a [the] bomb? I doubt it.” SAF
Bravo. My fellow Americans, heed the words of someone who can think strategically.
Nov 16, 2008 - 8:10 am 23. Mike Kelley:Here we sit in the US with the Middle East powder keg simmering and a political party in power that is owned by the environmentalist wackos. That means a renewal of the offshore oil drilling ban, no tapping of our massive oil shale reserves, and more and more onerous restrictions on coal use. I bet the voters didn’t know they were voting in higher energy prices.
Nov 16, 2008 - 8:13 am 24. Ms Attitude:Wow…all comments above are right on point…so many different routes to take with each outcome an unknown…Mr. Ledeen, I agree, whoever takes the position of secretary of state is certain to fail. You have one group of Americans who want Isolationism, another that wants to spread democracy, and yet, another that just wants to make sure we aren’t going to be attacked n our soil…Obama and co. will not be able to make everyone happy. To be honest, I don’t want to be in a country that is ran like those in the Middle East.
Nov 16, 2008 - 8:23 am 25. Войска ПВО:Slveryder writes:
“According to my professor (who is a liberal/greenie), the United States is already responsible for the mess Iran is in because we helped overthrow the pre-Khomeini regime and handed the country to the mullahs. “
Huh?
No disrespect; I realize this was your professor who said this. But basically he is telling you that if Carter had not sold out Reza Pahlavi (The Shah) and helped Khomeini come to power, then the U.S. would have clean skirts.
Give this idiot a wide berth and pity the liberal students who believe this steaming load.
No wonder people think libs areduplicitous.
Nov 16, 2008 - 8:56 am 26. Ian Thorpe:Iran is not the most urgent problem, the nation whose internal near-collapse should be prompting a need for clean underwear all round in the American and allied camps is Pakistan.
Nov 16, 2008 - 9:18 am 27. Judy, NYC:Already a nuclear power and sharing borders with some very unstable former Soviet republics Pakistan has numerous well organised and well armed insurrectionist groups and along its North West border is indistinguishable from Afghanistan. Principal loyalties are to tribes rather than artificial post – colonial nations.
there is an important place for john mccain in the obama administration. our best hope is that they work together to resolve foreign policy.
obama, although i did not vote for him, i now see as an up close and personal intellectual, which for me, solves the puzzling question of how he came to be involved with so many opposing forces. intellectuals study every side of an issue, even to the extent of overblowing issues that don’t necessarily exist, connecting dots that are in reality, random, or focusing on that which cannot be resolved, but merely dealt with.
mccain is military in his thinking. he is single minded, purposeful, dedicated and patriotic. from table fist-bangers to zero-sum gamers, compromise without harsh options merely triggers a signal of weakness and sure defeat (yours or theirs).
i have come to believe that obama is a good man with a fine intellect. intelligence of that level is something america can use. however, having known that sort of person, i would note that i actually saw a piece of paper disintegrate in his intellectual hand, he was studying it so long.
my hope is that mccain will find an important place with obama, even if it is only the kitchen cabinet. lest we disintegrate as well.
Nov 16, 2008 - 12:45 pm 28. gcblues:SNObama has 3 people with 20 years experience each in dealing with Iran. Madeline, Warren, and Ramsey.
Ramsey was in Iran in the time between the revolution and the embassy takeover. He visited the central Tehran political prison where he encountered Ross P trying to spring. his employees. Ross was ultimately successful Ramsey is an idiot and hurt rather than helped the entire situation by being a shill for the Mullahs.
Warren was Jimmie’s chief negotiator in Iran. Warren was unable to accomplish in almost 3 years what Ronnie accomplished in a single day.
Madeline too has extensive experience, think the Belgrade Chinese embassy, Somalia, Khobar and the USS Cole.
With these impressive world experts i simply cannot understand why PJM and these posters feel that SNObama will be internationally ineffective. i am baffled by this. surely by admitting our errors, acceding to peaceful Europeans and purging the diplo cowboys leftover from Ronnie, George and George SNOBama will usher in a world exuding in peaceful nirvana.
can’t we all just get along. Give peace a chance. Kumbaya baby
Nov 16, 2008 - 1:07 pm 29. David W. Lincoln:cedarford, I noticed that you did not touch Aristotle. If the past has no bearing on the present, or the future, then you have got to be the busiest man on the face of the earth to come up with something – unless all the laws of nature bend to your will so that you can create ex nihilo.
One of the planks that BHO trotted out was defeated in Canada in 2006. Namely that Carbon Dioxide be treated as a pollutant.
Nov 16, 2008 - 3:12 pm 30. deguello:Obama will name Rodney King as special good-will ambassador to Iran. He’ll say in his soft melliflous voice:”Can’t we all just get along?” Whereupon the mullahkillers will be instantly coverted to Obamanism,will immediately disarm,and holding hands with Rodney,will sing “Cumbaya”. Everyone in Europe will thank the messiah for his wisdom, and the world will live in peace forever after.Incidentally,did I tell you that I contracted syphilis at Woodstock years ago, and it’s finally reached my brain? Sincerely:Another Obama democrat for peace and change.
Nov 16, 2008 - 3:38 pm 31. thegr8_1:Halftime at football game NBC morons Costas and Meredith Viera crying about icebergs melting and snow melting off Mt Kilominjaro where one of the other NBC morons is climbing. Wake up morons those are the least of our problems.
I like John Bolton or Mark Steyn for SOS but not in a million years. Hillary I like because she said if Iran attacks Israel we would obliterate Iran. Other than power or ripping off the taxpayers with no conscience I don’t know why anybody would want to hold high office in these times.
Nov 16, 2008 - 8:06 pm 32. Peace Like A River » Cables, dispatches and memoranda:[...] Michael Ledeen – The real world is so frightening that I can’t imagine Hillary Clinton will be foolish enough to accept the job of secretary of state; anyone who takes that job is almost certain to fail. How can anyone believe that he or she has a good chance of dealing with: [...]
Nov 16, 2008 - 11:43 pm 33. Gary Rosen:“like Sir Winston..he’s a done chapter”
C-fudd (”Cedarford”) once again proves himself to be a complete liar and ignoramus. Churchill was voted back in as PM in 1951 and served for four years. Aside from being a complete fool, here’s a little insight into C-fudd’s deranged mind:
http://minx.cc/?post=66320
Just alertig PJM readers that it is not only safe but essentially requisite to ignore his idiotic, factless rants.
Nov 17, 2008 - 3:11 am 34. The Historian:ON BARACK WATCH
Now, more than ever before, we all must remain extra vigilant relative to the President-Elect.
http://greensrealworld.blogspot.com/2008/11/on-barack-watch.html
Nov 17, 2008 - 10:09 am 35. Freddie Funky:“20. SAF:
The Russians are all about raising the price of oil. So they will continue to goad and support the Iranians into some foolishness with Israel. ”
Exactly right. Russia needs a high oil price. They will stir the middle east pot until they can get $100/barrel plus prices again. In this context Russia needs strife and tension in the middle east to prop up it’s own economy. Iran is paying Russia for nuke info and help. Giving Iran help with Nukes is a huge win for Russia and absolutely within Russian interests. While it isn’t clear if Iran is aware they are being used as a pawn, it doesn’t really matter as high oil prices is also in Iran’s self interest. Neither Bush or Obama is going to change the fact that mid east instability ( and consequent higher oil price) is in Russia’s national interest. the only bright point of that analysis, is that Russia want’s strife, not the destruction of Israel. ( How would that help Russia?) So Russia would step in to “help” Israel and try and sell arms and support to all sides if possible.
Too much analysis fails to describe the situation and instead trumps up some insipid Bush or Obama vs whoever scenario..
A game breaker could be Iranian democracy.. but don’t hold you breath under Obama for support. I expect him to vote “present” for the next 4 years in matters of foreign policy. He could do a lot worse with some ill conceived plan. Just hope Obama sticks to the meaningless platitudes that are his forte. ” We need change in the middle east we can believe in”
Nov 17, 2008 - 10:41 am 36. Shef Rogers:A Neocon bashing people for having been wrong in every prediction–that’s so shameless it’s almost admirable.
Nov 17, 2008 - 4:55 pm 37. Iraq Is In A Crisis! « Calvinists 4 Conservatism:[...] Obama is too limpwristed to do so. That’s why you’re so afraid of us. We’re in a regional war, and the only way we can accurately win it is to treat the entire reagon as threatening. Barack [...]
Nov 17, 2008 - 6:57 pm 38. Hyperman:How can Obama be worse than George W Bush ? For all the damage Bush caused, he is far more anti-American than any American I know. I know it’s easier to blame everybody else for your own failures, but conservative were not kicked out of power because of their great work… I know that it might scare some Americans who prefer likable stupidity, but having an intelligent and educated President is not necessarily negative.
Enemies are not created out of thin air, W greatly helped aligned more country of the world against the US. Like Osama Ben Laden was a tool to enroll young people in the US army, Bush became a recruitment tool for terrorists and other radicals around the world.
Nov 17, 2008 - 7:56 pm 39. Opinionator:I think we all ought to take a breath, listen to what the man has to say now that he’s been elected, and then judge.
He’s the US President now, and like McCain told us all; he deserves our respect and needs our support (and that includes our advice).
How about suspending the negativity for just a few weeks?
Nov 17, 2008 - 8:04 pm 40. Pat J:I’m more concerned about Pakistan since they already have the bomb and they have all sorts of problems with both the Taliban and Al Quada.
Oh and…
Nov 17, 2008 - 8:52 pm 41. Ira Zad:16. JK: Thank you. That needed to be said.
I agree with you, Duoist.
If Hillary is the SoS, then we may at least have a ghost of a chance that Barack Hussein will tilt towards a tougher policy against the Islamic Republic of Terror in Tehran.
Let’s face it, No One could be worst than Condi Rice and Chicken Bob Gates in totally f…g up our Iran policy in shame and weakness and appeasement. No one except Kerry, of course.
If Kerry, the Freemason and buddy of Euro-mullah Khatami in Iran, is the SoS; then we’re talking Grand Bargain with the Tehran regime albeit after US(Democrats in the White House)collude with Europeans to help get their boy Khatami(or a Khatamite) elected as President in IR in May 2009 “elections” there.
The question is what are they then gonna do with Nehad and Khamenei?…
If Nejad and the rest of the “fundamentalists” in Iran see the writing on the wall as described above, they would do themeselves a big favor if they jumped in and ‘eliminate’ Khatami or any other European ‘reformists’ candidate before the election in May. For example, Khatami could easily choke on a chicken bone while eating, or say mysteriously get some Pollonium(courtesy of Uncle Putin) in his system somehow.
But ultimately, and other than the above, Hussein Obama’s choice of SoS will depend on how much Hussein is going to succumb to pressure from Israel on choosing Hillary. We will see.
Nov 19, 2008 - 12:01 am 42. C. Benson:Understanding issues about Obama’s birth certificate is very trying. I’ve read so many articles and still don’t have a full understanding of whats happening. My understanding in one instance is the court case was dismissed because it wasn’t in the jurisdiction of that court. Another article I read said that the state of Hawaii does not have to give the original birth record but instead provides a duplicate which some believe to be accurate. There are so many other questions flying around I’ve found it impossible to figure out. I wish someone would put all the facts in one place in plain english so people could understand why it is or isn’t a problem. Frankly I don’t understand why any question should be off the table. Why should we ignore this? Unless it can be proven beyond reasonable doubt that he is a Citizen this is a legitimate question. I haven’t seen any so called authoritative fact sheet with all the answers so why sould I take the word of any commentator, saying it’s settled.When I see and understand all of the facts I’ll decide if this is an issue I want to dismiss. I would of course like it to be true that he is not eligible to be President. If the name Barak Huessien Obama was never listed as a name of one of the Presidents of the United States it would be the best news this country has received in a long time.
Nov 19, 2008 - 12:03 pm 43. kourosh:In the meanwhile and despite all the atrocities against human life and human right, the Gang of Sicks reappeared again. Gary Sick and his chord of sick people (couple of people in Congress with ties to certain group, and the usual Trita Parsi and Hoshang Amirahmadi, and other jokers in NYU)are at the again buttering Imams and Islamists and encouraging to kill more of the Iranian people without paying attention to anyone. They practice this art of inhumanity during the Carter failed era, or as Iranian say massaging Khomeinistis with peanut butter. They don’t care about anything but their said agenda. No matter which labor leader, student, journalist, and women are arrested and their families are raped. To these Sick gang, raping of the Iranian people in the hands of Khomeinists mean nothing. The funny thing is the Sick gang is using scared places like Congress and NYU for inhuman activities. In a way Gary Sick is Imam Mahdi for Khomeinists, Parsi, and Amirahmadi gang of non-human. The fact is despite the propaganda, Khomeinists are so scared of appearances of real Imam Mahdi (as they belive) because they would not have any business anymore. That is why the Imaginary -Mahdi like Gary Sicko is suiting them well.
Nov 19, 2008 - 1:30 pm 44. Alireza:Ground is getting ready for eventual Iran recognition of Israel. Republicans and the military industrial complex were—and still are—the major blocking reason for this not to take place.
While Iran did execute an alleged Israeli spy in Iran, Iranian regime is pretending that Hossein Derakhshan, the Iranian blogger is a spy!!! What they try hard not to make it too obvious is that he did go to Israel with clear and PRE-APPROVAL of Iranian regime to Israel. Otherwise, with the exception of Iranian Jews, if regular Iranians visit Israel, they bottom part is grass in slow motion.
So I give credit to Iranian intelligence agency and to Israel for handling this PR campaign, like Orwell’s Ministry of Information to the eventual resumption of relations and recognition between Iran and Israel.
So by the end of 2009, we will notice how drastically, Dr. Ledeen’s language will change and we will see a new positive development in the Middle East.
Now, all those people on bipolar medications and Fox TV addicts start writing and start hallucinating, like your last 8 years. Get busy.
Nov 22, 2008 - 10:21 pm 45. Dominique:“The real world is so frightening that I can’t imagine Hillary Clinton will be foolish enough to accept the job of secretary of state; anyone who takes that job is almost certain to fail.”
“It will be interesting to see who Obama picks to “manage” the Iranian time bomb. My guess is that he will take people who have been wrong from the beginning. I’m betting that he will find people from the Carter years, the ones who favored the fall of the shah and rather liked the Ayatollah Khomeini.
Any takers?”
Wouldn’t Colin Powell be glad to make a come back? He wouldn’t be a so bad pick, in the affirmative. Besides, he enjoys good popularity.
Nov 23, 2008 - 3:16 pm 46. Jassem Othman - Syrian:Of course, I always AGREE with Prof. Ledeen
Just remember please
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad “Iran’s President” said: “the message of the Islamic Revolution is global, and is not restricted to a specific place or time. Have no doubt…Allah willing, Islam will conquer what? It will conquer all the mountain tops of the world.” Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini believed in Muslim unity and solidarity and the export of Islamic revolution throughout the world, he said: “Islam is a religion that wants to rule the world; it has done so before and eventually will rule it again.”
We know that nuclear Iran possess long-range missiles (nuclear warheads) can reach into deep of Israel and even into deep of the US, that missiles form a real menace directly for Americans. They might even be able to direct them into deep of American territory from one or more of anti-American alliance countries in the Latin America which the mullahs have made no secret of establishing strategy alliances and economist with them such as “Cuba, Venezuela and other States”.
No doubt Mr. Barak Hussein Obama, he is “the favorite president in White House” for The Terror masters in OUR region “Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Hamas and Hizballah.” So we will see his respected team will kiss the people turbans who scorn YOU!!!
Nov 23, 2008 - 6:50 pm