75 Comments

1. MarcH:

This was a very interesting and inspiring (I’m preparing to redeploy to Iraq so inspiration is appreciated) article. I have one question for Dr. Ledeen.
You indicated that an Israeli defeat of Hamas would be a defeat for Iran. I agree and I think that is how many Iraqi leaders would view it. My question is what constitutes Israeli victory? Suppose Israel continues operations until BHO’s inauguration, avoids introducing ground forces down the rat hole of Gaza City but continues to target the accessible ammo dumps, tunnels and any remaining accessible Hamas combat leaders? The Israeli withdraw would leave a lot of the Hamas leadership intact. The Hamas forces would come out of hiding, be re-supplied and then be ready to resume rocket attacks in a few weeks or months. Caroline Glick at Jerusalem Post and others seem dissatisfied with that type of result.
If you have a more ambitious Israeli operation in mind do you assess that they need and would have international support?

Jan 4, 2009 - 6:49 pm 2. Winston:

Can we expect a direct aid from the Israelis to help change the regime of Iran?

Jan 4, 2009 - 7:07 pm 3. Pajamas Media » Is Iran in Trouble?:

[...] Read the entire piece here. [...]

Jan 5, 2009 - 3:21 am 4. Socius:

What I don’t get about this article is the following:

- You say Iran has held back from attacking Israel, either directly or through its proxies
- As a result, you think they are a bigger threat
- You also think that WE should now attack them
- You also expect no retaliation from them if they are directly attacked…

Just a little background info…the people of Iran are firmly supportive of the Palestinians. This is probably largely due to the fact that Palestine is a core part of basic education in Iran, starting from elementary school. They read about stories of little palestinian kids and the violation of the rights of their families, and stories of self-sacrifice for the greater good.

So the people of the country ‘are’ behind Palestine. But their biggest complaint right now is: “The Palestinians are Arabs…and there are many Arab countries between Palestine and Iran. Considering all the Arab rhetoric…why should the Iranians be the ones to get themselves into a fight to save the Arab Palestinians? Why aren’t the actual Arab countries doing anything?”

There’s an Arab League. They should be the ones to deal with such a large scale violation of international law against THEIR OWN race of people. That’s where the Iranian people stand. And that’s why Iran hasn’t done anything.

The second part of that…is that it’s less worthwhile to actually get Hezbollah involved, now that it’s been converted to a very powerful legitimate part of the government, AND the fact that the Lebanese army itself will now be funded/supplied by Iran. They are not backing down because they’re weak. They’re backing down because their situations have been improving into a much bigger game with more risks, but also greater rewards.

Besides…this war is going to be +3 points for Iran, and -50 points for Israel. So it’s a win-win. And to be clear about something…it won’t be embarrassing for Iran if Hammas were to lose, because Hamas is not a direct operative group like Hezbollah. They have not been directly armed/equipped by Iran as Hezbollah was. So this is ‘not’ one of Iran’s proxy wars. If Hamas were to Win, it would definitely be a lot of bonus points for Iran, but them losing still makes Iran come out ahead of Israel.

Cheers.

Jan 5, 2009 - 3:44 am 5. Drellberg:

George Bush’s genius has been in understanding that this will be a decades-long war of attrition. He has had a consistently measured strategy throughout, and has carefully navigated a middle ground between appeasers and hawks.

Instead of using 300K+ troops from the outset in Iraq (the cumulative toll of maintaining this force would have been huge for the US), he carefully dispatched troops to recognize the long-term nature of the fight, and added more only when Iraqis were truly ready to take back their country.

We only hear and read of the cost that this war is imposing on our own country and its allies. The terror masters, though, have endured losses and expended resources that are orders of magnitude greater than what we have put forward. And we are slowly but systematically winning. There was a time circa 2006 — which in retrospect will look very brief — when we seemed to be losing ground. But any objective analysis shows that at any given time we are gaining ground on 8 of every 10 fronts.

Were it not for the threat of an Iranian nuclear bomb, there would be every reason to be pleased with the cumulative impact that we have had since 2001 in rooting out terror, and in our long-term prospects. And regarding that bomb, I have to believe that our side is not as vulnerable as it appears. Between the US and the Israelies, I imagine that there are several viable contingency plans, and that we will see them when the time is appropriate.

I have always looked to Dr. Ledeen as the most interesting and compelling commentator anywhere on the war on terror and its roots in Iran. I can not exaggerate how he has shaped my views of the Middle East. For the life of me, though, I have never understood how his otherwise brilliant logic leaps at the end to the conclusion, “Faster, Please!” I have always figured that time is ultimately on our side, so long as we keep up a relentless push forward.

Jan 5, 2009 - 4:25 am 6. John Davies:

MarcH-

Thank you for your service. I remember for a few months after September 11 waking up often when a plane flew overhead and wondering if something bad was going to happen again. I know in my heart that people like you are responsible for me being able to sleep soundly again.

Jan 5, 2009 - 5:40 am 7. Ann:

Will Mahdi Kahlar (the fine specimen calling for boatloads of martyrs) be planning to embark with them?

I really appreciate the tone of this article: it exposes the vulnerabilities and failures of a terrorist government in a very contemporary way. Good stuff to have brought in to focus this week.

W/re to the martyrs: never forget that the only “hope” in Islam is to die a martyr. Apart from that, their religion gives them no hope of heaven. It’s interesting to notice (repeatedly) that even though they themselves preach that, their leaders aren’t terribly anxious to sign up.

Jan 5, 2009 - 5:56 am 8. Peter the Sub Guy:

MarcH,
My deepest respect and best wishes that you deploy safely. Thank you for your service to our nation.
~Peter
Proud OIF Vet

Jan 5, 2009 - 6:29 am 9. Magic:

Israel should finish this problem now carpet bomb and bulldoze all of Gaza
East to West and South to the sea. Evacuate all the Palestinians to Iran and
salt the ground so that no one can live there again.

Jan 5, 2009 - 6:30 am 10. nadadhimmi:

The muslim terrorists can ALWAYS depend on an assist from the liberals and MSM. It makes these 40 Rock “beautiful people” feel SO glamorous, dangerous and avant garde, dontcha know.

Jan 5, 2009 - 6:51 am 11. Dominique R. Poirier:

Sir,
You wrote:

“Figaro this weekend carries a story bluntly headlined “Iran Behind Hamas’ Grad Missiles,” and flatly states that Hamas military commanders have been trained in Iran and Syria to use the deadliest missiles in their inventory.”

For the record, the Figaro is a French daily newspaper supposed to be right-leaning.

What if the Figaro said the same as Le Monde, its counterpart standing on the opposite side?!

Mistakes happen, however.

As example, the French daily left-leaning newspaper Liberation Champagne, and L’Est Éclair, its right-leaning challenger, are located at the same address, share the same offices in the same building and both are printed by the same printing company.

Beware. Appearances happen to be deceptive…

Sincerely,

Jan 5, 2009 - 7:34 am 12. dscott:

While I agree with most of the background info presented, IMO, Hamas is taking orders from Iran and was tasked with a purpose. Even the most optimistic Shiite would recognize any attack upon Israel is a futile gesture since they know they don’t have the military muscle to defeat Isreal on the battlefield. They also recognize that the Jews are not just going to quit an commit suicide nor will they simply pack up and live somewhere else.

The real reason for Hamas to attack Israel has been illuded to at the beginning, the price of oil and Iran’s dependence on it’s income to subsidize it’s jihad. If you paid attention to the price of oil in 2006, you would have noticed that it added dramatically to the upward trend in prices beyond the normal supply/demand forces when Hezbollah started poking Israel with the stick. http://www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs/oilprice1947.gif Iran does not want or can afford direct confrontation with Israel, their objective is funding their proxy jihad and thus Israel with it’s predictable behavioral response to being poked with a stick gives them exactly what they want, high oil prices. Hezbollah lost a lot of men and equipment in that conflict, so militarily they came out the loser, but politically they succeeded and then used the confusion to go after the Lebanese government. Hezbollah for it’s part had to do something to break the stalemate prior to 2006 to reorder the battlefield. What happened? They have the UN watching Israel while they rebuild their fortifications. Interesting how failure is success…

So now Hamas, has exactly the same objective. The UN and the all the peace loving diplomats are calling for ceasefire, in other words a momentary truce so Hamas can reorder the battlefield to their advantage. And the price of oil if this goes on for a while? http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/CL_G9

Jan 5, 2009 - 7:46 am 13. tanstaafl:

If one upshot of soaring gasoline prices was drastically reducing Iran’s revenue stream (and, hence, ability to finance Hamas & Hezbollah), then I’ll see that as a silver lining to the cloud.

I would think the provenance of the rockets hitting Israel from Gaza would be clear cut. Even one Iranian made piece should be enough to justify taking out Iran’s manufacturing capacity and, especially, the EFP’s used in Iraq that have maimed and killed so many.

I don’t understand (since everyone seems to accept that Iran heavily sponsors the terrorist aspirations of both Hamas & Hezbollah) how both terror groups get upgraded and resupplied on an ongoing basis. Since rocket fire now reaches farther than ever into Israel, who’s making those ?

If none of these people had all this ordnance anywhere, obviously they couldn’t conduct these ridiculous “terror” campaigns.

It is, I suppose, a good sign of paranoid weakness if A’jad and friends are relying on the (ideologically brainwashed) Basiji, you know, that wonderful crowd of kids (A’jad reportedly, a Basiji leader at the time) who got to wear plastic keys around their necks as they cleared minefields during the Iran/Iraq war so they could unlock the doors to heaven when they got blown to smithereens.

Jan 5, 2009 - 8:14 am 14. Tazzerman:

Excellent piece as always! I agree with the notion that we should utilize every single piece of evidence that we have regarding Iran’s arming of both the Hezzies and Hamasies to justify going after the manufacturing locations within Syria and Iran.

Put it on the table for the world to see then go bomb the crap out of those sites.

The signal it would send would be unmistakable and in my mind, chilling for the Mullahs.

Jan 5, 2009 - 8:25 am 15. Daniel in Brookline:

> It follows that Iran could well lose this battle, and defeat is very dangerous to a regime like
> Tehran’s, which claims divine sanction for its actions and proclaims the imminent arrival of its
> messiah and of the triumph of global jihad. If Allah is responsible for victory, what can be said
> about humiliating defeat?

If we were speaking of rational actors on the world stage, we might be tempted to reach an interesting conclusion — that if “defeat is very dangerous” to the Iranian regime, then perhaps they should not be fighting proxy battles against Israel, for whom defeat is fatal.

Iran has, in my humble opinion, been supporting Hamas lavishly in recent years because they could; Israel seemed willing to suffer endless rocket attacks on her own citizens without response. But now there is a price to pay for those attacks… and an awful lot of Iranian military hardware has gone up in smoke over the past week.

Wouldn’t it be interesting if Iran, strapped for cash, decided it no longer had any money to spare for Hamas or Hizbullah? (I’m not expecting that to happen, although it certainly would be nice.)

respectfully,
Daniel in Brookline

Jan 5, 2009 - 8:43 am 16. M. Simon:

I noted a day or two ago the fact that Hizballah was not in on the fight. You would think that as Iranian proxies they would do their best to complicate Israel’s plans.

I think that Hizballah lost the war in 2006. A winner does not hesitate to resume the fight when conditions are favorable. Israel has recovered. Hizballah has not.

In addition this time Israel will have had 2 1/2 years to mature their plans and improve their eqpt.

Jan 5, 2009 - 8:44 am 17. Cybergeezer:

In answer to the article title, yes! But Ahmadinejad, and the U.N., will use this situation to make it look as if the West is continuing it’s “inhumane” and “discriminatory” treatment of muslims. And the New York Times and CNN will follow with their loyalty to take the opportunity to condemn the United States and it’s policies some more.
What’s new?

Jan 5, 2009 - 8:55 am 18. Charlie (Colorado):

From your mouth to the Gods’ ears.

Jan 5, 2009 - 9:06 am 19. 彥子:

伊朗的命運交給上天決定

Jan 5, 2009 - 9:20 am 20. Jan McDaniel:

Sir:

The Iranian regime is hollow? Granted, it is not what it was in 1979, but during the Iran/Iraq war it commanded impressive loyalty from those many thousands who were willing to die for their faith.

The loyalty to the regime has degraded, but not to the faith.

Jan 5, 2009 - 9:34 am 21. Hot Air » Blog Archive » Ledeen: Iranian regime failing as proxies lose ground:

[...] Michael Ledeen wouldn’t qualify as an optimist, especially on Iran.

Jan 5, 2009 - 9:55 am 22. Larsen E Whipsnade:

4. Socius:”…why should the Iranians be the ones to get themselves into a fight to save the Arab Palestinians? Why aren’t the actual Arab countries doing anything?”

The answer is that the rest of the Arab world can’t stand the Palestinians. No other Arab country wants anything to do with them. This can be seen when you look at the border between Gaza and Egypt. The Egyptians have had this border sealed tight for decades. No way do they want Palestinians running loose in Egypt. The Jordanians have always been pissed at the treacherous Palestinians, too, and even abandoned their West Bank territory rather than put up with them. Even the beleaguered Lebanese dream of the day when their Palestinan “guests” finally pack up and leave. The Saudis, too, make life really difficult for any Palestinians that may slip through the door. The Palestinians are personna non grata everywhere in the Arab world.

Jan 5, 2009 - 10:12 am 23. MarcH:

To John and Peter,

Thanks for your kind comments about my redeployment (and thanks for your service Peter). As I read my comment (#1) over I see that it may give the impression that my tail is dragging. Not at all (although I’ll miss my family very much). I just wanted to thank Dr. Ledeen for describing the significance of our mission to Iraq in the context of the global struggle against the Mullahs and Jihadis.

Jan 5, 2009 - 10:13 am 24. cubanbob:

With oil prices at the current level, it is time for the US to extract a measure of revenge. The US should announce that it will sharply curtail or suspend outright economic trade and relationships with any country the does business with Iran. And take out the Iranian arms factories that produce the IED’s and GRADS. If the US takes such measures after a brief moment of disbelief by the world, when the US acts firm in this, the shock will be world wide and the Iranian regime may well collapse. Such a lesson will not be lost on the rest of the Arabs or the Russians.

As for Israel, she should continue in Gaza but without further warnings and if possible hit Syrian terrorist bases and bomb Hamas leaders there as well.

Jan 5, 2009 - 10:18 am 25. Are Iran’s mullahs in trouble? « Internet Scofflaw:

[...] Iran’s mullahs in trouble? Michael Ledeen says so: For some time now, the regime in Tehran has shown signs of urgency, sometimes verging on [...]

Jan 5, 2009 - 10:30 am 26. RW:

The Iranian people are struggling and quite badly with both crippling inflation and unemployment. A predicted uprising among students was not quelled as in the past so claims of fealty to the mullahs is drastically overinflated.

At the same time, Ledeen’s article acts as an interesting marker on how things potentially stand. But this is merely potential and often the author has indicated a belief that with support, the Iranian people can free themselves.

This yet remains to be seen. And the lack of a mention of any potential atomic bomb would change the picture dramatically especially if the claim was backed up with a test.

Combining the two elements of Iran’s bad economy combined with their demographics hastening the deterioration, war is in fact what is looming ahead. Although Hezzbully may sit on the sidelines for the moment, that doesn’t mean it won’t happen in the next 12-18 months when a full arsenal of Iranian missiles will sit adjacent to every inch of Israeli territory. UNIFIL will sit by when the missiles start flying right over their heads as the trajectory to Tel Aviv is apparent to not just them but the world.

Not feeling very optimistic sorry. Iran is deploying more advanced defense systems, courtesy of Putin and there is no doubt that this is to complement the needed protection of their nuclear sites.

Jan 5, 2009 - 10:35 am 27. Michael:

Dispite all of his bluster, I think Ahmadinejad is afraid of Pres. Bush and what he might do if Iran involves itself directly in the Gaza conflict. I think Ahmadinejad is just biding his time until Pres. Obama takes office and then he’ll act. I’d bet that Ahmadinejad got some warm, fuzzy assurances from Obama about Obama’s kinder, gentler foreign policy with regards to the Middle East. I hope Israel, for its own sake, can resolve the Gaza conflict before Obama takes office.

Jan 5, 2009 - 11:05 am 28. Ron Kean:

Heads up Michael…we’re coming over from POWERLINE too.

There used to be an understanding or a saying that if America was on your side…America would lose its will, back out and you would lose. I forgot how the cliche went.

Hopefully, now if Iran is your supporter you’ll lose.

Jan 5, 2009 - 11:16 am 29. jim2:

Any attack directly against Iran would surely spike oil prices, thus likely helping the mullahs more than any damage inflicted could hurt them. The domestic rallying effect produced by any such attack would simply be a benefit multiplier for the mullahs.

Jan 5, 2009 - 11:33 am 30. Allan Blackwell:

Hats off for you, MarcH. You supply some inspiration yourself!
Re Gaza, a blogger said that a Fatah contact told him that his group has given the IDF targets. Of course, were Hamas to be crushed, one wonders if Fatah would be so forthcoming later. Is it strategically wise to leave a rump of Hamas, so that no side is wholly secure?

Jan 5, 2009 - 11:56 am 31. hemmersheim:

I got the link at Powerline Blog….

Good read and it is good news.

Jan 5, 2009 - 12:27 pm 32. jensad:

The only direct aid from Israel we might need is the locations in Iran of their military supplies, nuclear fusion, (for peace) and support when we blow the blank out of Iran.

This may also be done by Israel itself, who must be tired of the Iran’s hardline
leadership-gnomes/trolls interference and games they play with their Hamas lethal toys.

jensad

Jan 5, 2009 - 12:34 pm 33. fredw:

“which claims divine sanction for its actions and proclaims the imminent arrival of its messiah and of the triumph of global jihad”; change the word “jihad” to “Democracy” and you could be talking about the Bush administration!

Jan 5, 2009 - 1:02 pm 34. Saltherring:

@19:

That’s good to know. Thanks.

Jan 5, 2009 - 1:27 pm 35. Saltherring:

Michael @ 27:

I agree, and believe that President Bush has made it quite clear to Iran to stay out of Israel’s reach or expect a “bunker buster” party. Wonder what will happen on 21 Jan?

Jan 5, 2009 - 1:31 pm 36. Nancy Reyes:

Are they paying their natural gas bills this year?
Do they have enough oil refineries to supply their own gasoline?

Just wondering…

Jan 5, 2009 - 3:22 pm 37. Nick G:

Someone once made the point — I believe it was “the Newt” at an AEI meeting — that Iran has just one gasoline refinery throughout the entire country. It’s hard to believe, but he’s a serious guy and has no reason to exaggerate something like that. If this is the case, and we really wanted to cripple the regime, President Obama has to do just two things:

– Sabotage that refinery in a covert-op.
– Openly pledge support for unions in Iran going on strike, so they can stay on strike — which is something Dr. Ledeen’s mentioned about a thousand times.

These two acts alone could bring down the regime. Now couple them with the low oil-prices, a secure enviroment in Iraq, and Hamas/Hezbollah on the defensive without as much Iranian backing, and everything else mentioned in this article, and we’ll be looking good.

Jan 5, 2009 - 3:29 pm 38. Big Red:

Ron K., that cliche is “Remember Saigon.” All our enemies have read Gen. Giap’s book. When you worry about Iran’s nukes, just remember we would be doing the same about Iraq. There’s your WMDs for you.With the world so anti-Israel, I wouldn’t be surprised if they one day said “screw it” and just finish the deal. I’m afraid Mr. “change we can believe in” just may be the final catalyst. To all our vets, thanks and may we be worthy of the sacrifices you have made in our name.

Jan 5, 2009 - 3:54 pm 39. Dinocrat » Blog Archive » Welcome to the party, pal:

[...] President elect Obama, considering that the Iranians are backing Hamas, and are up to shenanigans like these: the mullahs have organized raucous demonstrations in front of numerous embassies, including those [...]

Jan 5, 2009 - 4:07 pm 40. Mike_K:

Nick G, when the “students” seized the embassy and took the hostages, Carter asked the joint chiefs what they suggested. One, and I forget which one, suggested taking out Kharg Island. That would have ended Iran’s oil exportation until it could be rebuilt. I often wonder what the world would be like if he had taken that advice. I don’t see Obama as any more decisive than Carter; if anything less so.

Jan 5, 2009 - 4:47 pm 41. Michael:

Saltherring, I think after Bush leaves office, we’re going to see Hezbollah initiate attacks against Israel. Iran will use Hamas, Hezbollah, and Obama to distract Israel from Iran’s nuclear activities.

Jan 5, 2009 - 5:14 pm 42. Saltherring:

Michael,

I agree. Iran, and possibly others, will test Obama within the first several months. Don’t forget, Obama is packing a lot of heavy baggage Bush didn’t give a rip about; that being the Democrat Party. Obama owes his existence to the peace-niks, appeasers and Israel-haters that comprise his political base. How long will it take for SOS Hillary to issue a statement along the lines of, “The United States joins its European allies in condemning the State of Israel for its bombing of defenseless civilians in Gaza. And as a consequence to these acts of aggression, the United States hereby suspends all sales of military hardware to Israel, and terminates all existing military and intelligence agreements with that state.”

Jan 5, 2009 - 5:53 pm 43. Nick G:

Mike, if we’re lucky Obama will be another Clinton. That’s if we’re lucky. But you’re right. I see Carter pacifism written all over him, with a dose of amoral Scowcroftian realism as well.

You look at Obama’s acceptance of the characters he’s hung around, and it’s remarkable. For example, if a punk like Ayers requested my services, or wanted to further advance my career, I’d do some serious introspection.

I don’t care if he wanted to begin a joint-venture to help old ladies cross the street. I would very impolitely point my finger in his face, tell him what I thought about him, and walk out of the room — all out of solidarity with the fellow countrymen he bombed and doesn’t feel bad about bombing.

This isn’t to say Obama agrees with these views. It is to say, however, that he does not consider them beyond the pale. Character is about knowing what is and isn’t beyond the pale. It’s about drawing a line in the sand, and then saying “Don’t cross that line” — and meaning it. Where is Obama’s line in the sand? I’m not sure where it is, and I’m certain most of the country isn’t sure either.

In short, our next president is very, very different from everyone I know. Everyone. I do not know a single man that would have behaved like Barack Obama had they been in his shoes. Maybe it’s just a Jersey thing, but I simply do not know people like this. The guy’s a total pushover.

And, like you said, I expect that to translate to foreign affairs as well. Everyone on the broad adversarial spectrum, from Putin to Zawahiri, is licking their chops.

But we’ll see. Hopefully he surprises.

Jan 5, 2009 - 5:56 pm 44. Jassem Othman - From the Middle East:

It is very pleasure to see brave and unsanctimonious people in the West as Prof. Michael Ledeen.

Prof. Ledeen, NOT only the Iranian regime is fundamentally hollow, rather all the tyrannical regimes in the Middle East are hollow. They all are very excelling at deception.
Obviously that Iran is mother of terrorism – Iran is the world’s biggest supporter of international terrorism. Both Syrians and Iranians are totally in cahoots and both regimes backed terrorist groups. They created the extremist radicals groups in the region as “Hizbollah, Al-Mahdi army “Al-Sader” and Islamic Jihad”, and they supports the terrorist groups as “Hamas, Al-Aqsa, Al-Qaeda, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine and even Fateh”. Arafat was the first foreign leader was invited by Mullahs to Tehran after overthrow of the Shah.

Hamas military commanders (Sunnis) have been trained in Iran and Syria and that Iranian Revolutionary Guards (Shiites) were trained in the early 1970s Yasser Arafat’s Fatah (Sunnis). All that terrorist groups believe that they have defeated the US in Iraq, and Israel in Lebanon. Its aim is to intimidate the rest of you.

You have an immense number of evidences that has proved that mullahs have been murdering you more than 29 years, and today they and the Syrians ruthlessly murder you in Iraq and Afghanistan. Proudly they show you how they murder your sons and blow your vehicles by IEDs- EFPs, and destroy your helicopters. As well as most extremist radicals groups in the Middle East and the Islamic fundamentalism terrible movement FINANCED AND SUPPORTED STRONGLY BY SAUDI ENORMOUS OIL PROCEEDS WHICH IN SERVICE OF JIHAD AGAINST ZIONISTS AND CRUSADERS.
THEY HAVE TO FEEL THAT MILITARY OPTION STILL ACTIVE.
THE HUMILIATING WESTERN POLICYMAKERS
WAKE UP, PLEASE!!!

Jan 5, 2009 - 7:11 pm 45. sa:

MarcH and Peter the Sub guy- thank you both for your service and God bless you MarcH and bring you home safely.

Jan 5, 2009 - 8:07 pm 46. Daily Pundit » No, Mike, Wishful Thinking Won’t Make It So - But Bombs Might:

[...] Faster, Please! » Is Iran in Trouble? After years of refusing to see Iran’s aggressive intentions, most sensible observers of things Middle Eastern now recognize that the most important terrorist organizations, from Islamic Jihad to Hezbollah and Hamas, are essentially Iranian proxies. [...]

Jan 5, 2009 - 9:11 pm 47. Danny:

Hi, Hizbollah kidnapped two soldiers.

Jan 5, 2009 - 9:18 pm 48. Mac:

MarcH and Peter, as a retired Navy Spook, I can not tell you how much I appreciate all that you have done and are doing for us. Take care on your deployments!

Mac CTICS SS/NAC (Ret)

Jan 5, 2009 - 10:57 pm 49. bordergal:

As long as we are allow muslim immigration into western nations, we are losing the war.

Allowing the enemy to infiltrate our homelands in a form of demographic jihad is stupid and suicidal beyond belief.

“There are moderate muslims, but Islam itself is not moderate”

Jan 5, 2009 - 11:38 pm 50. Mudpie:

Dominique:
In France, right wing is socialist, left wing is communist. There is nothing else.

Jan 5, 2009 - 11:39 pm 51. L.Jay:

I’m convinced that Joe Biden’s warning regarding Obama facing an early test will be in foreign policy, specifically Middle East policy. Remember the warning that his actions will at first look wrong to the American People, but stick with him and all will be well?

Look for him to caress Iran’s spouse, Hamas, (figuratively of course)as Hillary caressed Arafat’s spouse. Surely that will set the most effective precondition for Obama to meet face to face with Ahmadinejad. Chicago politics at its most effective!

Jan 6, 2009 - 7:30 am 52. Doc99:

Faster, Please …

Jan 6, 2009 - 7:54 am 53. Is Iran in Trouble? | IsraelSeen.com:

[...] http://pajamasmedia.com/michaelledeen/2009/01/04/is-iran-in-trouble/ [...]

Jan 6, 2009 - 8:13 am 54. Kourosh:

In the meanwhile IRI and Khomeinists doing everything they can to poison the area. In their latest report (Kayhan- Mouthpiece of Khamenie) IRI claimed Gaza terrorists are killing Israelis by a high numbers, have shut down few aircrafts, and directly asked the people of Islamic countries to assassinate their leader. If this is not a violation of all international treaties, and a direct terrorist act, I don’t know what is.

Jan 6, 2009 - 9:17 am 55. Marie Claude:

“A few weeks ago, students at universities all over the country demonstrated in significant numbers, and as one Iranian now living in Europe put it to me, “they were surprised that the regime was unable to stop the protests, even though everyone knew they were planned.”

yes they are fakes

http://www.iran-resist.org/article4039.html
____________________________________________

Mudpie,

“In France, right wing is socialist, left wing is communist. There is nothing else.”

yeah, in your white and or black prism, no nuance !!!!

though the “right” is more like your ancestral “liberal”, the “so called “socialists” are “social democrats”, only less than 10 % can be considered as of a “communist” obedience

Jan 6, 2009 - 10:44 am 56. mhfurlong:

Can Israel take out Iran’s nuclear facilities without using nuclear weapons to do so? What would be the fallout (no pun intended) of such a step for Israel?

Jan 6, 2009 - 1:19 pm 57. mhw:

The winner in the Gaza war so far is Egypt/Mubarak.

He has Hamazoids in his waiting room begging for border openings, etc. He directs third level flunkies to give the Hamazoids lectures on respect for Egypt. He has EUniks in a different waiting room asking for his advice. He gets to give these folk lessons on realpolitik. He goads the Mullahs putting up cash for assassination, a point that will come up at the next OIC meeting.

So far a good 10 days.

Jan 6, 2009 - 2:00 pm 58. brooklyn dave:

I really don’t see the Iranian regime toppling as a result of a defeated Hamas. So, call me a pessimist! I do see the hole being dug a bit deep in that the Iranian economy is in a shambles and there is widespread loathing of the mullahcracy thus the regime getting a little shakier.

Jan 6, 2009 - 2:09 pm 59. brian:

Ive been thinking the same thing.I suspect that the real paper tiger on this world is Iran.Its weird since gas prices moved up when Israel attacks Gaza?Hows that?Theres no oil in Israel or Gaza.In addition,like many north americans ive tossed my car out and use public transit to get around.Oil is Irans weakness.So the logical step is ease off our consumption of it.That in turn will create even more unrest in countries like Iran,Syria and Russia who are already dealing with high unemployment.The propaganda used to keep their populations in place are failing quite rapidly now.

Jan 6, 2009 - 4:35 pm 60. brian:

Watch out for this guy Sid Ryan.Hes calling for a boycott of israeli professors here in canada.He calls israeli existance a 60 year occupation.Hes the president of the CUPE(canadian union of public employees).A union.Figures.The Left owns the unions in canada.Not good.

Jan 6, 2009 - 6:40 pm 61. The Captain’s Journal » The Role of Palestine in the War with Iran:

[...] Michael Ledeen makes a strong case that Iran has turned Hamas loose to lose if necessary, a sort of cowardly betrayal of the Hamas leadership.

Jan 6, 2009 - 9:38 pm 62. Cybergeezer:

Here’s an article on daily life in Israel; And just for fun, go through the article and replace Israel and it’s towns with your own, and Netanyahu’s name with your governor or mayor.
Does that make a difference?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123128827234659279.html?mod=rss_opinion_main

Jan 7, 2009 - 9:03 am 63. Peter the Sub Guy:

56. mhfurlong asks:
Can Israel take out Iran’s nuclear facilities without using nuclear weapons to do so? What would be the fallout (no pun intended) of such a step for Israel?

Peter replies: Israel has done it before. Though I fear the attempt would not be as easy this time.

Jan 7, 2009 - 9:29 am 64. Peter the Sub Guy:

60. brian wrote:
The Left owns the unions in canada.Not good.

Peter replies: The Left owns the unions everywhere, brian my boy.

Jan 7, 2009 - 9:38 am 65. Mirco:

Very informative and interesting article.
It fit well together with other infos I gather around the net.

Jan 7, 2009 - 5:46 pm 66. Lilith:

Ah, yes — Sid Ryan — He’s president of CUPE Ontario and a rabid anti-semite — oh, sorry…he’s not anti-semitic he’s anti-zionist … check out this CUPE (Canadian Union of Public Employees) website and have a look at their “The Wall Must Fall” pamphlet posted on the home page http://www.cupe.bc.ca/files/Wall_Must_Fall_English.pdf
This was MY local of CUPE BC – local 379. The anti-semitic sludge seeping through CUPE disgusted me and when I took a leave of absence I refused to pay them any dues (well, I said I would pay in full as soon as they removed the offending pamphlet) Many Jews other than myself were trapped CUPE jobs — we are forced to become members of CUPE if we work in a union shop – there is no choice – your dues are automatically subtracted from your pay cheque – I was fortunate in that I could take a small stand by refusing to pay dues while on leave (no pay cheque so they couldn’t get at me).
A tiny victory.
I should point out, in CUPE’s defense, (sort of) that none of the other provinces voted to go along with CUPE Ontario when they voted to
boycott all goods from Israel. (Like Israel gives a sh–.) In my local, this was because the vice-president, at the time, was a Jew and he prepared a report on the history of Israel and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. He presented it at the meeting where we were to vote on joining the Ontario boycott. My local voted against.

Jan 8, 2009 - 12:42 pm 67. Amin:

Ledeen must be insane and detached from reality if he thinks a US attack on Iran would make the situation better.

Jan 9, 2009 - 3:52 am 68. Michael Ledeen:

Hey there, amin, i’ve been opposed to an invasion of iran for years. i want the “Western world” to support democratic revolution in Iran, as we did in the Soviet Empire. Which worked pretty well (you might ask Havel or Walesa about that, or Sharansky).

I do want to defend our troops, and i think that attacks on the Iranian terrorist training camps (as those in Syria) is legitimate self defense, as well as a useful “message” to the Iranian people, showing that the mullahs are not untouchable, and that they will pay for killing Americans.

Second, all those people who jump up and down and falsely accuse me of wanting war with Iran have both the facts wrong and the likely consequences of inaction wrong. It is Iran that declared war on us, thirty years ago, and has been waging it ever since. And if we continue to fail to respond effectively they will continue to escalate, making a big war far more likely.

Yes it’s paradoxical, but history is full of those paradoxes. Remember Churchill on Chamberlain: “You had a choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor. And you will have war.”

Jan 9, 2009 - 8:07 am 69. Naltionalist:

Socious, Every now and then there are people who live in lala land thinking Iranians are 100% behind Palestinians, the very people who helped the mullahs consolidate their rule, and have, in every conflict between Arabs and Iranians sided with their brothers. Who ever you are socious, you must be living in your own world and with your own logic. Most Iranians who are kookoo enough to support their enemies are those living in the West or brought up over there. Poor Iranians in Iran neither have that kind of luxury, nor such misguided views. No matter what the mullahs feed Iranians in schools, and feed you, people are smarter and more nationalistic than you are. Do you work for the Islamic Republic? Wake up, get rid of your complexes, and get with it! Also, by your writing you give the impression that you think you are Mr. know it all. This is proof you know nothing.

Jan 9, 2009 - 1:43 pm 70. Jassem Othman - From the Middle East:

To Amin,
Mr. Amin, I never heard Dr. Ledeen ask to wage war on Iran. if you read all Dr. Ledeen’s articles, you will see that Dr. Ledeen strongly call to overthrow tyranny regimes In Iran and Syria through support of democratic revolution.
No doubt there some statements by Dr. Ledeen calling to use hard power! Well, that’s right, because mullahs declared war on you more than 29 year. They killed you in Lebanon and Saudi Arabia, and today they and Syrians ruthlessly murder you in Iraq and Afghanistan.
I think if Dr. Ledeen has declared to using force, doubtless it’s a kind of legitimate self defense. The United States of America must humiliate terrorist groups through attack on terrorist training camps in Syria and Iran and also the US must attack some nuclear facilities and the military facilities by limited strikes in both countries.
However Dr. Ledeen is one of the Advocates and Philosophers of The Absolute Axis of Good, and though the tenets of neo-conservatism continue to offer the most cogent approach to the challenge that faces the United States. Most important of those tenets “their struggle is moral, against an evil enemy who revels in the destruction of innocents and they always prefer nonviolent methods, while the use of force will continue to be part of the struggle”. For example the neo-conservatives had played an effective role to fell the Soviet Communist Empire. So will they supported democratic revolutions in middle Europe which I very admiring that revolutions in “Poland, Czechoslovakian, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Georgia”. After Evil Empire fell “the Soviet Communism Empire”, all these people thanked the United States for its help, and though STILL now the vast majority of Polish villains are DENIES THE US FAVOR, where “I saw it here in Poland”. The Poles strongly believe that Poland is free JUST thanks to Lech Walesa and also thanks to the late Pope John Paul II according to their claim, because the Pope was a Pole!!! But these fools have forgotten that any real freedom revolution CANNOT BE SUCCEEDING WITHOUT THE US SUPPORT.
However Walesa is known among Poles as a Stupid man and unpolite who lacks logical talk with others.
On the other hand, it does not surprise that Poles denies favor, where their big and pundit in the US “Mr. Zbigniew Brzezinski” who is shockingly anti-Semite and terribly fight against the US greatness and Israel State, despite he is an American native. Mr Brzezinski is struggling strongly to humiliate the US and to destroy Israel.
Generally, Poles had practiced some atrocities and pogroms against Jews during World War II, where Jews massacred and robbed by their Polish neighbors and though Poles still think of themselves as wartime victims, not villains? They ALWAYS AND ALWAYS blame Jews on their problem.
So Mr. Amin, obviously that Dr. Ledeen is insightful brave man and unsanctimonious NOT as your masters of the humiliating policymakers!!! I think you are from Middle East, therefore please reconsider its predictions in high-risk issues and do NOT absolves the Iranians or any despotic regime of evil intent.

Jan 10, 2009 - 12:06 am 71. Jassem Othman - From the Middle East:

To Amin,
Mr. Amin, I never heard that Dr. Ledeen ask to wage war on Iran. if you read all Dr. Ledeen’s articles, you will see that Dr. Ledeen strongly call to overthrow tyranny regimes In Iran and Syria through support of democratic revolution.
No doubt there some statements by Dr. Ledeen calling to use hard power! Well, that’s right, because mullahs declared war on you more than 29 year. They killed you in Lebanon and Saudi Arabia, and today they and Syrians ruthlessly murder you in Iraq and Afghanistan.
I think if Dr. Ledeen has declared to using force, doubtless it’s a kind of legitimate self defense. The United States of America must humiliate terrorist groups through attack on terrorist training camps in Syria and Iran and also the US must attack some nuclear facilities and the military facilities by limited strikes in both countries.
However Dr. Ledeen is one of the Advocates and Philosophers of The Absolute Axis of Good, and though the tenets of neo-conservatism continue to offer the most cogent approach to the challenge that faces the United States. Most important of those tenets “their struggle is moral, against an evil enemy who revels in the destruction of innocents and they always prefer nonviolent methods, while the use of force will continue to be part of the struggle”.
For example the neo-conservatives had played an effective role to fell the Soviet Communist Empire. So will they supported democratic revolutions in middle Europe which I very admiring that revolutions in “Poland, Czechoslovakian, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Georgia”. After Evil Empire fell “the Soviet Communism Empire”, all these people thanked the United States for its help, and though STILL now the vast majority of Polish villains are DENIES THE US FAVOR, where “I saw it here in Poland”. The Poles strongly believe that Poland is free JUST thanks to Lech Walesa and also thanks to the late Pope John Paul II according to their claim, because the Pope was a Pole!!! But these fools have forgotten that any real freedom revolution CANNOT BE SUCCEEDING WITHOUT THE US SUPPORT.
However Walesa is known among Poles as a Stupid man and unpolite who lacks logical talk with others.
On the other hand, it does not surprise that Poles denies favor, where their big and pundit in the US “Mr. Zbigniew Brzezinski” who is shockingly anti-Semite and terribly fight against the US greatness and Israel State, despite he is an American native. Mr Brzezinski is struggling strongly to humiliate the US and to destroy Israel.
Generally, Poles had practiced some atrocities and pogroms against Jews during World War II, where Jews massacred and robbed by their Polish neighbors and though Poles still think of themselves as wartime victims, not villains? They ALWAYS AND ALWAYS blame Jews on their problems.
So Mr. Amin, obviously that Dr. Ledeen is insightful brave man and unsanctimonious NOT like your masters of the humiliating policymakers!!! I think you are from Middle East, therefore please reconsider its predictions in high-risk issues and do NOT absolves the Iranians or any despotic regime of evil intent. My friend. wake up, please!

Jan 10, 2009 - 12:18 am 72. Ira Zad:

ALERT in FOX news just now:
Bush stopped Israel from attacking Natanz nuke site last summer–

A collective spit from all Iranians who hate the mullahs regime be upon Condi Rice’s and ‘yellow’ Bob Gates’ Islamist-ass licker faces–
And what was Cheney last summer, chopped liver I suppouse…

Good Bye “W”, youw ill go down in infamy in the history for failing to stop the man-eating mullah regime in Iran while you could.
Shame on you!

Jan 10, 2009 - 11:44 pm 73. Ira Zad:

Condi Rise “F”’s Up Again!
http://news.antiwar.com/2009/01/12/olmert-brags-about-embarrassing-rice-in-un-gaza-vote/

Jan 13, 2009 - 1:21 pm 74. Raj:

It’s a shame of what is happening in the Middle East. Yes the USA is a bully in the world to show who is the global police. Granted that if the Middle eastern countries don’t like the west then let them survive on their own!

From Pakistan to Saudi Arabia, Does anybody know of any car manufacturer? how about a software company? forget that that a global company that is doing really well? Oil is what they have and that is about it.

If the entire world sanctions the middle east, and if they can’t sell any oil to anybody? how long will they survive as a country? Things are bad as it is.

All these countries are so dependent on China/USA and other countries for goods.

What have they been able to do for themselves?

I know there isn’t one answer that would solve it but if you look at the philosophy of the Mullah’s is just simply Jihad. Yet the fail to look at creating jobs for their own people. If man could stop fighting and just living in the region wouldn’t they all be a bit happier?

Man has always fought in the name of land, money, and being a greedy SOB.

Religion: Lets take a global religion called Music. You can put many people from many countries together in a room put on some good music and everyone can relate to it.

It’s man’s ego of why man is not progressing, all about land or why certain groups of people are bad. We all want peace but at the price of killing innocent people.

I believe that if there is a battle to be done between countries make the leaders fight it out in a global boxing ring or something like that why go on having your soldiers go out and get killed.

Nobody ever suggests that hey lets have a round table in Geneva, lets invite Hezbolla or Hamass, Israel, Taleban and any others and sort out the differences.

Some want land some want a way of life from the 12th century. I guess at the rate we are going someone is going to drop a bomb one day, which will kill us all, if you don’t die now the bombs radiation will kill you over time.

R-

Feb 17, 2009 - 11:05 am 75. The Captain’s Journal » Analysts Miss Iran’s Hidden Revolution:

[...] writing for Pajamas Media, Michael said early in 2009: … despite all their efforts to crush any sign of internal [...]

Jun 20, 2009 - 10:07 pm

Write a Comment

Name:	(required, displayed)
Email:	(required, not publicized)
URL:	(optional, displayed)
Comments: