151 Comments

1. Alex Pournelle:

…and we shall reap the whirlwind.

Thank you for helping raise consciousness on the most important battle of the decade. Iran’s evil dictators are the linchpin for the entire Mideast, and if they somehow become (more? somewhat?) democratic, the fissures could sunder the chains on the Lebanese, the Syrians, and possibly even the Afghanis.

I’ll pray that God is indeed with these brave people, and that somehow this turns out for the best, with no more blood shed than necessary.

Jun 15, 2009 - 8:31 pm 2. Pajamas Media » So How’s It Going In Iran?:

[...] Read the entire post here. [...]

Jun 15, 2009 - 8:48 pm 3. Nick G.:

I read a comment on some other blog update, and I personally think it belongs with the Flat Earth Society. It’s a conspiracy theory, to be sure, but I figured I’d share it with you anyway. It goes like this: the Mousavis are in on this. Khamenei bungled this so badly on purpose to provoke this reaction, Mousavi emerges as the “man of the people,” and some days or weeks from now, Rafsanjani-Khatami-Mousavi make peace with the Ahmadinejad faction through a power-sharing deal, or something of the sort. Whether or not Ahmadinejad is “in” on it doesn’t matter: the “green revolution” is really Khamanei’s revolution and it dupes the people into thinking they achieved change.

Not saying I agree with any of this, but it’s what I read. I personally think it’s much more likely that the mullahs do not always know what they are doing, and proved that with this election. I never understood why some people insist our government is incompetent (which it is), but then insist foreign governments like Iran’s are all-knowing. This conspiracy reminds me of those who were saying Ahmadinejad was a CIA stooge to “provoke” international isolation of Iran.

In reality, Khamenei screwed up big time. As you say, none of the big players knew this would happen, or what would happen now.

An interesting question for me is, if Mousavi was not a ‘reformer’ two weeks ago, has mere happenstance forced his hand? He was prepared to be president alongside Khamenei just a few days ago, and now realizes if his movement fails he’ll be destroyed by Khamenei? Is it safe to say that it is now more about survival than principles for him and his wife? Can he be trusted to lead this?

I would suspect that soon this will reach a tipping point and the regime will (sadly) contemplate the Tiananmen option. If that happens, and this democratic uprising is crushed violently, and we lose this moment in time, that will constitute one of the worst failures of U.S. leadership — certainly in my lifetime.

Jun 15, 2009 - 8:51 pm 4. Stephen:

Dear Michael,

While the White House and State Department remain circumspect, what of the media, government sponsored and not? And, would public demonstrations, unaffiliated with any government, in sympathy with, and in support of, the Iranian dissidents help or hurt?

Governments may not be riding to the rescue, but that does not mean Iranian dissidents need feel alone. The belief that the world is watching, I imagine to be bracing in effect.

Jun 15, 2009 - 8:54 pm 5. Nick G.:

As for Twitter, I always thought that website was stupid and pointless until now. Ah, the things George Washington, Lech Walesa et. al. missed out on…

Iranian protestors are asking for help from computer specialists in the West to “hack” or “flood” the regime’s websites. One of the regime’s main websites is this: http://www.farhang.gov.ir and you could learn how to hack here: http://dev.austinheap.com/iran/

Jun 15, 2009 - 8:55 pm 6. Dan:

Professor, this is an exceptional post.

You laid it all out, made clear that this is now something nobody envisioned, a “do or die” situation, and that if the people understand that, understand there’s no going back, understand that the governments of the world are not on their side, and that it’s up to them, then they may prevail.

Khamenei?

The only decent ending for that monster is the ending of the Duce before him. And oh what a sight it would be to see the mobs disinterring his evil predecessor, and ripping his corpse limb from limb, and throwing it out onto the streets.

Sometimes, the Italians have it right. It must be a collective passing on of the genes of their Roman forefathers.

Jun 15, 2009 - 9:04 pm 7. flickervertigo:

this is all pretty boring.

cant you just do some creative destruction and get it over with?

surely the guys at dimona can counterfeit a north korean nuke, surely you can cobble up some paperwork that verifies iran’s purchase of a north korean nuke.

surely plame’s exposure has disabled the CIA pirates who are looking for wmds, surely we can ship a little nuke to new york city or seattle or san francisco, and touch it off so we have an excuse to bomb iran and close hormuz.

the longer we wait, the more obvious israel’s moral bankruptcy becomes…

let’s get with the program, mr ledeen!

Jun 15, 2009 - 9:12 pm 8. Nick G.:

This is clearly an advantageous opportunity, as you make clear. You’re right. This isn’t a “bind.”

But the situation is so fragile that it can be hijacked by others, as well. You don’t want to get into a situation where Rafsanjani, who might be even more radical than Ahmadinejad, is able to undermine Mousavi and start to “lead” the opposition to Ahmadinejad.

Which is why Obama should be speaking up. He should be explaining these intra-battles to America and to the world. He should be showing Iranians that he “gets” it. Of course, he doesn’t, so he won’t. He wants to cut a deal with the last man standing.

Dan brings up a good point. This might require the protestors getting nasty, like the Italians and like the Romanians. Would we be overplaying our hand if we helped arm the dissidents? Unnecessary, counterproductive? My moral compass and instincts tell me, if a friend is being beaten with men with weapons, and I have many weapons, to lend him some weapons in return.

Jun 15, 2009 - 9:17 pm 9. Derek:

You get the dynamic, but for someone reason fundamentally miss America’s role in this. See, this has to be about the Iranian people. You understand that, yet you seem to think that American interjection isn’t hazardous. The supreme leader would love nothing more than to take mousavi’s face off of this movement and put Obama’s or the US in general on it. You have to be careful about giving fodder to that, so every response has to be measured. You’d feel better if Obama gave a stronger statement? Well this isn’t about you. This isn’t even about what’s right, because if your idea of doing right is rhetoric, you’re probably short on accomplishment.

Jun 15, 2009 - 9:18 pm 10. Fen:

Nicely written. And you saved me from having to read that bigot, Andrew Sullivan, re Iran. Thank you.

Jun 15, 2009 - 9:19 pm 11. glenn:

Here’s a question for some of you Iran experts. If the revolutionaries are successful will anything change in the big Middle East picture? Will they admit to the existence of Israel? Or will we just wind up with a better educated bunch of Muslims arming themselves to nuke Tel Aviv?

Jun 15, 2009 - 9:31 pm 12. Winston:

I hope this is the end of the regime. I feel so helpless from here. I wish people don’t stop at this now

Jun 15, 2009 - 9:33 pm 13. X Contra:

Thanks for giving us the info about Moussavi and his wife.

1. Will Zahra Rahnavard be able to lead a government?
2. Will Zahra Rahnavard lead a secular government or another mullahocracy?
3. Will someone else emerge in leadership, perhaps someone from the nuclear technology workers, a scientist or an egineer? Or maybe a playwright?

It was an interesting day following the Twitter channels. More to come.

Jun 15, 2009 - 9:35 pm 14. An analysis of the situation in Iran « Epiphanyblog:

[...] An analysis of the situation in Iran Jump to Comments PajamasMedia posted an analysis of the political situation in Iran today. So How’s it Going in Iran? [...]

Jun 15, 2009 - 9:44 pm 15. Nick G.:

Glenn, anything would be better than this regime. I’d much rather have an Iranian democracy with nukes than this government with them. And to answer your question, no, I don’t believe these Iranian dissidents have such hostile views of Israel. Even if they do, they aren’t theologically motivated to act the way the mullahs are. It’s the difference between Saddam and Maliki — even more so, though.

Jun 15, 2009 - 9:50 pm 16. nebben:

This Stealection is proving Twitter’s worth, http://bit.ly/UVPmW.

Jun 15, 2009 - 9:55 pm 17. Stuart:

Glen, if this is a popular uprising, as Ledeen describes it, then a new government that arises from it will not be in the terror exporting, destroy Israel business.
I mean, the opposition to the government is largely democratically oriented, and pro-Western. Of course, the response of Western governments, starting with our despicable coward of a president, is shameful.

Jun 15, 2009 - 9:55 pm 18. Nick G.:

Video of Iranians fighting back the police: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSECAvBTanQ&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Epopsci%2Ecom%2Fscitech%2Farticle%2F2009%2D06%2Fyour%2Dguide%2Dfollowing%2Diranian%2Delection%2Dprotests%2Donline&feature=player_embedded

Jun 15, 2009 - 9:56 pm 19. macko:

We need to return the penetrator IEDs and other weapons they sent to Iraq so that mousavi’s people can put them to good use.

Jun 15, 2009 - 10:02 pm 20. winston:

BBC reports of 7 deaths

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8102224.stm

Jun 15, 2009 - 10:07 pm 21. Raj:

Shower the rooftops of Teheran with hundereds of thousands of rifles.

Jun 15, 2009 - 10:13 pm 22. deb:

Glen, Mousavisn the supposed reformer was amoung the fathers of the nucleur weapons program & still a puppet of the ruling Mullahs, albight w/ a lower profile than Ahmadenijad. so, while their may be domestic changes under his opposition power, his nuclear ambitionsrs & the destruction of Israel is still on course. Remember, Iran is not a democracy period & the people have no say…guns % dictators under the Supreme gov’t rules.

Jun 15, 2009 - 10:15 pm 23. Hyphenated American:

What is happening in Iran? The view of a Russian immigrant.
http://hyphenatedamericans.blogspot.com/2009/06/what-is-happening-in-iran-view-of.html

Jun 15, 2009 - 10:20 pm 24. dido:

Mousavi and/or his wife are by no stretch of imagination Democrats OR revolutioanries! That’s just a preposterous thing to say! They’re regime thugs, both of them!
They are both regime lapdogs and as such are here to divert the revolutionary passions of the people back towards the inside (not oustide) so that the regime does not fall.

And it won’t fall, unless the rioters(I prefer to call them ‘rioters’ at this point) slogans change from a “single point” emotional yelp:”Death to Dictator”, to broader demands and slogans like “Death to the Islamic Regime” or “Long Live Secular Democracy” — But you don’t hear or see that in what the rioters yell or carry in their hands, do you?

This is a farce, it is designed to save the regime from genuine revolt that was inevitably coming. The regime will contain, and absorb, and dissipate this rebellion unless the riots mature into a mass movement for secular democracy sans IRI.

If you want to call this sorry, old, and delapidated pair of washed-out Islamists Mousavi and his manic-depressive wife “revolutionary”, be my guest; you’re entitled to your wishful thinking and their “green illusion” and yours.

But as I see it, as this so called revolution stands right now with those kind of “single point” myopic slogans mentioned above, the riots will be quelled by Nejad and Basij soon enough, and nothing, zero, will come out of it.

We’ll be fighting in the streets
With our children at our feet
And the morals that they worship will be gone
And the men who spurred us on
Sit in judgment of all wrong
They decide and the shotgun sings the song

And the world looks just the same
And history ain’t changed
‘Cause the banners, they all flown in the last war

I’ll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around me
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
No, no!

I’ll move myself and my family aside
If we happen to be left half alive
I’ll get all my papers and smile at the sky
For I know that the hypnotized never lie

There’s nothing in the street
Looks any different to me
And the slogans are replaced, by-the-bye
And the parting on the left
Is now the parting on the right
And the beards have all grown longer overnight

I’ll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around me
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
Then I’ll get on my knees and pray
We don’t get fooled again
Don’t get fooled again
No, no!

Meet the new boss
Same as the old boss

Jun 15, 2009 - 10:31 pm 25. scott:

Obama you are a putrid coward and a traitor to all mankind. May your name live in infamy for all time.

Jun 15, 2009 - 10:43 pm 26. Peter:

Remember lend lease? FDR said that if his neighbors house was on fire, and he had a hose that he could lend, would it not be his obligation to lend the hose? I don’t think guns are what is necessary, if the Revolutionary Guards turn on the regime. Although someone will clearly have to deal with folks from Hezbollah. I’m wondering if Ledeen can link to that article from Der Spiegel talking about the regime’s importation of thugs.

Jun 15, 2009 - 10:52 pm 27. Desert Pig:

It doesn’t really matter which group of primitive Muslim savages takes power. They are still Muslims.

Jun 15, 2009 - 11:01 pm 28. What can I do to help? « Endoxacorn:

[...] pajamasmedia AP bbc Twitter delays maintenance for protesters Theocracy in [...]

Jun 15, 2009 - 11:13 pm 29. Alireza:

Unlike the 1979 revolution, this time situation is not so black and white. I read one outside American polling group saying that 3 weeks before the election indeed Ahmadinejad had over 60% of the votes mostly from small towns and villages. On one hand this poll was taken 3 weeks BEFORE the election, where even Mousavi had no idea he could win, UNTIL after the debate took place. Then I also wonder HOW could they reach Iranian villages that could barely have phone lines and other communications tools to ask them questions. Somethings don’t add up.

Now, lets ASSUME what this poll group is saying is true. IF that was the case how on earth Ahmadinejad and his gang would let go of REAL gained votes for him and taking the risk of declaring himself as the winner, without COUNTING the 40 million votes??!!!? One must be retard if they know they got all the votes and not wanting to count them!!!!! Yet, this polling group insult people and AVOID presenting why on earth Ahmadinejad people just DON’T COUNT the votes and in few hours declare him as the winner?!!! WHY?

As far as mentioning Rahnavard, Dr. Ledeen , I don’t know where you are going with it, UNLESS you are envisioning some bad things might happens to Mousavi and like Philippine case, then you anticipate his wife will take over?! Is that the reason?

Meanwhile more people are being arrested. At the end, I believe, RG and alike are not much isolated and separated from the rest of Iranians, and they will for sure join this mounting river. During the shah was the same and when the time came, the overwhelming people’s crowd weakened military people. The same is true this time but much more in favor of people.

Jun 15, 2009 - 11:21 pm 30. dido:

Dr. Ledeen has illusions about Zahra Rahnavard who is a schitzophrenic regime goon.
Alireza, the gist of it is western intelligence services have once again chosen the next from of government for Iran: IRI with Mousavi-Khatami-Rafsanjani and without Khamenei –
Ledeen is just doing their peddling here.

Jun 15, 2009 - 11:29 pm 31. Michael Lonie:

What has the army been doing? I assume the mullahs appointed loyal officers to command it, but if the army troops come in on the side of the people they could turn the tide, especially if there are splits in the ranks of the IRGC. If Khamenei and his lapdog have to import muscle from outside because the IRGC is reluctant to shoot down fellow Iranians that will mean that they can depend on only a timy number of fighters. The army could take them out, together with what remains loyal to the mullahs of the IRGC. The more so if the army armed the students and other young people demonstrating. Even if all the IRGC were united, I doubt they could stand up to a million armed soldiers and revolutionaries, regardless of the fact that they get better weapons than the army (just like the SS did).

This scenario would not be Mousavi’s flowers, but it would free Iran of the mullahs. I don’t know what the Iranians would make of their freedom, but whatever, it would probably be much better than the world-revolutionary Islamic Republic.

Jun 15, 2009 - 11:33 pm 32. Alireza:

Among the Ayatollahs, I was expecting A. Sanei would have come out and bravely demanded a new election or something close to that. Yet, he sent out a PRAYING statement to Mousavi that he is praying for him and the nation!!!!! What the f… is happening behind the scene? Either he was directly or clearly told that he will be killed, there is no other reasons he could send such an IRRELEVANT response letter to Mousavi.

Then A. Kani, who is conservative, came out with 100% direct support for Khamenei. That is not surprising to me, but learning Sanei backed off is really troubling.

I also wonder what is happening to Rafsanjani. I have not heard from him since his meeting with Khamenie. You know, he is the only guy that could call Assembly of Experts into a meeting and they could nominate and vote for a replacement of Khamenie. By doing so, they will be able to guarantee Islamic Republic life extended for another 25-30 years. This is a real possibility in the coming days, weeks or months.

Jun 15, 2009 - 11:52 pm 33. T-bone:

Scott – Take a chill pill son.

All the damage was done by the previous guy – he’s just trying to clean it up, in the manner that makes sense to him.

Everything’s going to be alright. Sleep tight.

Jun 16, 2009 - 12:18 am 34. Nighttime Protests in Tehran « Schmoozing with Elya & Ellie Katz:

[...] So What’s Going on With Iran? Pajamas Media [...]

Jun 16, 2009 - 12:59 am 35. Bad Karma:

What everyone needs to keep in mind is that none of the candidates are much if any different than the current nutjob. Does anyone actually believe that any of them just “stepped” up. They were all screened by the mullahs and then they made the decsion on who would take office. It’s all a show folks, nothing more, nothing less.

Jun 16, 2009 - 1:14 am 36. Commentary » Blog Archive » A Revolutionary Mass in the Streets of Tehran:

[...] Ledeen published a must-read analysis: To start with, the BBC, long considered a shill for the regime by most Iranian dissidents, [...]

Jun 16, 2009 - 3:38 am 37. Daily Pundit » American Values Only Reach So Far:

[...] Faster, Please! » So How’s it Going in Iran? It’s always better to assert American values, both because he’s our president and he should be speaking for all of us, and because catering to the tender sensibilities of the murders in Iran won’t gain anything. It will only increase their contempt. [...]

Jun 16, 2009 - 4:27 am 38. vivo:

27. Desert Pig:

“It doesn’t really matter which group of primitive Muslim savages takes power. They are still Muslims.”

This is like saying Conservatives are still Rednecks.

The Muslim religion enslaves (no free will) and makes people primitive, but there are many, many bright and educated Iranians. Many are here and run successful businesses. So, please be careful with what you say.

Jun 16, 2009 - 4:37 am 39. glenn:

The important thing here is the Iranians have to do this themselves. And while a “peoples revolution” may send a thrill up a lot of peoples legs it’s (just like always) the result that counts. Without fundamental change in the attitude of the Muslims toward Israel all the rest of us are bit players.

Jun 16, 2009 - 4:44 am 40. Harry:

Mr. Ledeen keeps believing in a bloodless revolution. It ain’t gonna happen. Revolutionary Guard defections mean increasing numbers of armed men for the coming revolution which would be absolutely necessary to overthrow the Mullahs. Until such time without arms it will be like shooting fish in a barrel. Even if the RG were to suddenly switch sides en masse there’s still the Mercenaries from Hizballah and Venezuela to deal with. In that case you can be assured of warfare as occurred in Iraq pre “Surge”, and as is occurring in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Suicide bombings, roadside devices and other terrorist guerrilla type tactics. Without proper counter force this can go on indefinitely and the danger lies of external forces taking over that is not pro west. In the event of chaos you can be assured Israel would take the golden opportunity to destroy or cripple Iran’s nuclear sites. I hope Mr. Ledeen and his think tank buddies are at least putting this scenario into their equations. It is time to think a bit ahead because wild fires have a habit of quickly getting out of control. Continuance in believing in rosy revolutions is failure to deal with alternate solutions or outcomes. A man with Ledeen’s experience knows that better than all of us. He makes me shake my head sometimes.

Jun 16, 2009 - 5:05 am 41. Marge:

So what does the writer want…for the US to invade another country and try to steal their oil.

Jun 16, 2009 - 5:52 am 42. Barry 0351:

Both sides are really not serious now it’s going to take a spark from one side or the other to set off a revoloution until that happens the odds are the current regime wins.

Jun 16, 2009 - 6:00 am 43. Uzi:

Two things to look for in a revolution are the moment when the leader or leaders of the ancien regime suffer a sudden loss of nerve, often due to the sudden realization that their position is less secure than they had peviously thought. (Think of James II when Marlborough crossed the field to join the forces of William and Mary or of Nicolas Ceausescu when he suddenly realized that the hundreds of thousands of rent a crowd people he had gathered up for a pro- government demo in front of his palace were chanting anti-government slogans, or of Ferdinand Marcos when part of the leadership of the Phillipenes army came out in support of Corizon Acquino). At moments like that, the old regime leadership start suffering vicarious flashbacks of previously overthrown leaders: Charles I on the scaffold, Moussolini hanging upside-down from a lamp-post, etc. and start looking for the nearest exit. When that happens the game is over and the revolution quickly replaces the disintegtrating ancien regime.

The second possibly determinative development would be for key members of the current leadership to somehow fall into the hands of the revolutionaries (as happened with Louis XVI , Tzar Nicholas, Moussolini, and Ceausescu). This almost always changes the dynamic of the revolution, generally by reason of execution of the outgoing leadership. Obviously Khamenei and Ahmadinejad will be taking precautions, but if they can’t trust their own Revolutionary Guards Corps officers, anything could happen.

Jun 16, 2009 - 6:19 am 44. Terry Gain:

Fox News is showing protestors chanting where’s my vote in English. Unfortunately the leader of the English speaking world left office in January and has not been replaced.

Jun 16, 2009 - 6:21 am 45. Gil Borman:

The Regime leadership surely deserves to be put to death but the single greatest thing the movement can do is declare that under the new Iran, breaking with the killings by the Shah AND the Islamic Republic, there will be no death penalty imposed on the regime members. The may face imprisonment and may be handed over to foreign nations for justice but they will not be killed.

This has the benefit of putting the new Iran on a sounder footing and makes it easier for the old guard to stand down. They may deserve to die but a life sentence is better if it will save lives.

Jun 16, 2009 - 6:23 am 46. Morning Skim: Iran 2.0 - The Opinionator Blog - NYTimes.com:

[...] Please: Michael Ledeen asks, “Does Mousavi even want to change the system? I think he does, and in any event, I think that’s the wrong [...]

Jun 16, 2009 - 6:27 am 47. krontekag:

T-bone – the “manner that makes sense to him” is, as usual, to vote present and hope it all works out.

And why not? It’s worked for him so far.

Pretty pathetic that it all comes back to “blame Bush” for you and your ilk though.

Jun 16, 2009 - 6:38 am 48. Fragmentarian:

It’s most unfortunate that President Obama and his administration just gave The “Islamic” Republic of Iran its endorsement. Good thinking there.

Jun 16, 2009 - 6:52 am 49. The blunder « Androkos:

[...] Giugno 16, 2009 Michael Leeden sull’Iran Does Mousavi even want to change the system?

Jun 16, 2009 - 6:57 am 50. Irán, hoy:

[...] ayer, en Pajamas Media: The young Islamic revolutionaries of the late 1970s are now middle aged, and do not wish to [...]

Jun 16, 2009 - 6:58 am 51. sheesh:

It’s so curious that the right wing conservatives are now so concerned about the Iranian people, when up till now the only thing we heard from you people was “Nuke em!”

Blatant and shameless politicizing of the issue – it’s the right wing manifesto. Here’s your problem, and it’s the same problem you have with EVERYTHING . . . god, guns, gays, abortion, and your favorite cause celebs Palin and Prejean . . . you can’t convince anyone but yourselves of your positions. And so, you will continue to be a small, stunted crowd of loud, obnoxious victims – ever outraged, ever dwindling. Soon, there’ll be nothing left of the right wing but a faint complaint carried on the breeze out of southern Alabama . . . “Down with mustard!”

Jun 16, 2009 - 7:02 am 52. Jules Crittenden » History Lesson:

[...] Michael Ledeen at PajamasMedia, always good on Iran, has a

Jun 16, 2009 - 7:04 am 53. Uprising in Tehran and other Iranian cities by youth and people, Al-Jazeera TV:

[...] Re: Uprising in Tehran and other Iranian cities by youth and people, Al-Jazeera TV More: The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan Faster, Please! So How’s it Going in Iran? [...]

Jun 16, 2009 - 7:07 am 54. Michael Ledeen:

well i’ve been at this for more than twenty years, constantly calling for support for democratic revolution in Iran. do tell, sheesh, how is it that people like me, who have always supported democratic revolution, get called “conservatives,” while the so-called “progressives” are the ones supporting the tyrants?

Jun 16, 2009 - 7:14 am 55. nelson:

Iran 2009 = Hungary 1956?

Mousavi = Imre Nagy?

Jun 16, 2009 - 7:15 am 56. Hotpatch 6:

Does it really matter who “wins” in Iran? Whatever the outcome, fanatical Shia Muslims will still be in charge, still chant “Death to America”, continue to pursue development of nuclear weapons, and will continue to foment attacks against Infidels, wherever they may be. It is just their nature.

Jun 16, 2009 - 7:17 am 57. Tim:

Great post, but what’s this vague aspersion about Google now?

Jun 16, 2009 - 7:17 am 58. Graham:

Why do Americans think that a pronouncement from their President somehow will make good things happen in other parts of the world?

Most of the rest of the world resents these statements as hypocrisy, as interference in their internal affairs, and as having the same smell of authoritarianism as their own local dictators.

Obama is doing the right thing.

Jun 16, 2009 - 7:22 am 59. X Contra:

Fight on Mr. Ledeen. You are the only guy I go out of my way to read.

Side note: PersianKiwi is off the air right now for over two hours. Early evening in Iran, I guess, lots happening.

Side note: Interesting visualizations of the information in PersianKiwi’s channel

http://bit.ly/l7Vrg

http://bit.ly/K6Ccq

PersianKiwi is being very careful evaluating the information.

Jun 16, 2009 - 7:24 am 60. Tim:

@#25 Scott:
Why do you hate America?

Jun 16, 2009 - 7:25 am 61. PFB Blog » Blog Archive » Still Going Strong in Iran:

[...] – Pajamas Media: “[T]he BBC…estimates between one and two million Tehranis demonstrated against the [...]

Jun 16, 2009 - 7:30 am 62. Michelle Malkin » Iran: What next?:

[...] Michael Ledeen weighs in: What’s going to happen?, you ask. Nobody knows, even the major actors. The regime has the guns, and the opposition has the numbers. The question is whether the numbers can be successfully organized into a disciplined force that demands the downfall of the regime. Yes, I know that there have been calls for a new election, or a runoff between Mousavi and Ahmadinezhad. But I don’t think that’s very likely now. The tens of millions of Iranians whose pent-up rage has driven them to risk life and limb against their oppressors are not likely to settle for a mere change in personnel at this point. And the mullahs surely know that if they lose, many of them will face a very nasty and very brief future. [...]

Jun 16, 2009 - 7:44 am 63. Michelle Malkin » Iran: What next?:

[...] Michael Ledeen weighs in: What’s going to happen?, you ask. Nobody knows, even the major actors. The regime has the guns, and the opposition has the numbers. The question is whether the numbers can be successfully organized into a disciplined force that demands the downfall of the regime. Yes, I know that there have been calls for a new election, or a runoff between Mousavi and Ahmadinezhad. But I don’t think that’s very likely now. The tens of millions of Iranians whose pent-up rage has driven them to risk life and limb against their oppressors are not likely to settle for a mere change in personnel at this point. And the mullahs surely know that if they lose, many of them will face a very nasty and very brief future. [...]

Jun 16, 2009 - 7:44 am 64. Bloodstar » More Iranian Catch up from Yesterday:

[...] Ledeen has some good information if you can ignore the random slams on Obama To start with, the BBC, long considered a shill for the [...]

Jun 16, 2009 - 7:54 am 65. ashok:

Thank you for this! It’s a really useful summary of what has happened so far, and has introduced me to an actor or two in this that I didn’t know of before.

It’s very useful to see the Twitter updates subjected to some critical review; it’s hard to tell what’s going on from all the updates, except that the situation is “not good,” even with the amazing strength of the protests.

Jun 16, 2009 - 7:56 am 66. JED:

The Iranians are having their own TEA party and we were not invited. The demonstrators will be suppressed by the guard, the memory will be bitter, and the status quo will be returned after being sold “the big lie.” The other players, the Russians and Chinese have more of a dog in this fight than the Americans, and they would rather keep their oil contracts in place. Obama’s namby-pambing and friendly overtures will not tip the balance in the superpower game.

Jun 16, 2009 - 7:56 am 67. tanstaafl:

The Iranian people know that they’re on their own; they aren’t going to get any help from us, or the United Nations, or the Europeans. But paradoxically, this lack of support may strengthen their will. There is no cavalry on the horizon. If they are going to prevail, they and their unlikely leaders will have to gut it out by themselves. God be with them.

Often, I’ve said this is what’s necessary, the Iranian people rising up from within. And don’t be waiting for any g.d. cavalry, especially given that the calvary can be so fickle.

Obama’s position on the goings on in Iran (or lack thereof) reminds me of the attention given the assassination of the soldier in Little Rock (done by Islamic convert) just prior to the President’s trip to Saudi Arabia & Cairo. Which the administration seemed to acknowledge somewhere between zip, zilch, & nada.

You see no absolute outrage or standing up on the part of the current US leader if incidents don’t fit his neat, tidy playbook as to how he, as The One™, will reconfigure the planet.

So Iranians can see that change & hope (aka chope) also depend on whose version we’re speaking of.

Jun 16, 2009 - 8:00 am 68. X Contra:

@tanstaafl — So by your analysis, the president has *accidentally* taken the right approach.

You know what they say about blind squirrels and dead clocks.

Jun 16, 2009 - 8:18 am 69. Typos_R_us:

Somehow or another, I’m sure it’s all Bushitler’s fault.
We are just too conservative to see that.

Jun 16, 2009 - 8:44 am 70. Ron:

Re your Update III:

This is a link to a Der Spiegel story, in German, which refers to the Voice of America report of Lebanese fighters in Iran. It cannot be found in English, apparently. I suggest Google Translator, it’s not perfect but you can get an idea of what it’s saying. I speak only pidgin German, and this is the only place I’ve seen this report, although I’ve heard it in a few places. I also saw a twitter post allegedly from Iran which gave an update on the situation, including the statement “Lebs moving S”, for whatever that is worth.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/0,1518,630463-2,00.html

Jun 16, 2009 - 8:45 am 71. Fragmentarian:

Sheesh? Shush. Your slip is showing. Now go cozy up with a nice, moderate mullah along with your man Barack.

Jun 16, 2009 - 9:01 am 72. J. Rockford:

This is the of the best pieces I’ve ever read. I had no idea things were this momentous in Iran; the mainstream media is certainly not telling us what is going on.

If the Iranian people succeed in overthrowing their government, and I hope they do, I wouldn’t expect them to feel like they owed the U.S. anything at all; despite people like Michael Ledeen repeatedly calling for the U.S. to peacefully assist in regime change, the U.S. did nothing.

Jun 16, 2009 - 9:19 am 73. David W. Lincoln:

Michael, seeing this going on reminds me of the Warsaw uprising in the Second World War. The Nazis were taking it on the chin, thanks to Warsawites, but the Red Army was on the outskirts of Warsaw, and history tells the tale that it wasn’t until after the uprising was over, when the Red Army moved in.

Those who do not assist the Iranians who want to put the Mullahocracy behind them deserve the same contempt, ridicule, and suspicion as those
who did not aid the Warsaw uprising.

Jun 16, 2009 - 9:23 am 74. njcommuter:

It seems to me that there are factions and fault lines inside Iran: in the government, in the military, and maybe in those government-controlled ‘enterprises’ whose activity is keeping the whole thing alive economically. I don’t know if the CIA (or the NSA) has any idea where they are, or who the players are. I don’t know if we have any way of driving wedges here, sprinkling sand there, and splashing oil somewhere else to force, jam, and lubricate parts of the system to drive it to collapse.

But I’d feel a lot better if I thought we did, and even better if I thought we were doing so. Bush would do so, and maybe did. Obama certainly won’t.

Jun 16, 2009 - 9:42 am 75. rvastar:

Soon, there’ll be nothing left of the right wing but a faint complaint carried on the breeze out of southern Alabama

Whether it be universal healthcare, national debt, whatever, sheesh has just perfectly illustrated the Left’s answer to everything, which can be summed up in two words:

Wishful

Thinking

To the Iranian people, I say only “Sic Semper Tyrannis”!

Jun 16, 2009 - 9:43 am 76. BlueRidgeForum » Iran’s Upheaval — and America’s Values:

[...] Leeden gives us here his valuable perspective – “Western governments have expressed dismay at the violence, [...]

Jun 16, 2009 - 9:49 am 77. Chilloutyo:

The One might be worried that we Americans might do the same thing here.

Jun 16, 2009 - 10:09 am 78. Scott:

You may disagree with their politics, but there is a good liveblog of the events at Huffington Post.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/13/iran-demonstrations-viole_n_215189.html

Jun 16, 2009 - 10:24 am 79. Louise:

58, the answer to your question is simple. The Iranian people are crying for statements of support from world leaders and they’re getting it. Obama’s was the wimpiest of the bunch, by far.

Jun 16, 2009 - 10:44 am 80. Fen:

This is like saying Conservatives are still Rednecks.

The Muslim religion enslaves (no free will) and makes people primitive, but there are many, many bright and educated Iranians. Many are here and run successful businesses. So, please be careful with what you say.

Sidebar: Redneck is a bigoted racial slur aimed at rural whites. You might as well say call them “niggers”. Its also ironic – ignorantly using a stereotype to claim they are ignorant bigots. Just saying, please be careful with what you say.

Jun 16, 2009 - 11:17 am 81. Delia:

54. Michael Ledeen,

THANK YOU! I was at the ready to let into our ‘resident troll’ but you nailed it to the wall.

People struggling for their freedom is a ‘good’ sign for the Mid-East but ONLY if their cries do not fall on deaf ears.

Would I be in favor of ‘nukin’ ‘em’ before they had the chance to nuke me? You betchya. Sorry. I don’t play patty cake with psychos.

Jun 16, 2009 - 11:20 am 82. masoudA:

Excellent Article Mr. Ledeen.
Truthful and some good advice.
We will prevail

Jun 16, 2009 - 11:36 am 83. Delia:

74. Fen:

“This is like saying Conservatives are still Rednecks.”
~

Isn’t it ‘also’ ironic that the term ‘red-neck’ is namely termed for white men who ‘toil’ in the hot sun and thusly have a sunburn around their collar area? Isn’t it a shame that men who actually work their butts off as farmers etc. get called such a bigoted name? Shouldn’t being a ‘red-neck’ be a prideful word instead? Since when did being a hard working white man become a shame?

Jun 16, 2009 - 11:37 am 84. In Historic Shift Guardian Council Agrees to Limited Vote Recount | TaylorMarsh.com:

[...] on Iran… Rep. Mike Pence introduces resolution supporting Iranians. Michael Ledeen is a wingnut of steroids. Instapundit goes green. John Bolton on Politico. Michael Goldfarb pushes Iraq model. While Mike [...]

Jun 16, 2009 - 11:45 am 85. A Hodgepodge of Voices on Iran « The Pugnacious Irishman:

[...] Michael Leeden gives his take (HT: Michelle Malkin).

Jun 16, 2009 - 12:23 pm 86. Alireza:

Per some news, Khamenei plans to conduct this coming Friday pray. Another news states that pro Mousavi and other people plan to attend this coming Friday pray, including Khatami, Mousavi and Karubi. They reason that militant cannot stop people who wish to attend Friday pray, so they can easily gather. Khamenei supporters warned him that they might not be able to control millions of people that plan to attend the Friday pray and his safety.

There is also news that Russia has sent over 100 of its agents to Iran to give advice to Ahmadinejad against “Green Revolution”, given their experience in Ukraine.

Jun 16, 2009 - 12:24 pm 87. How Does A Revolution Begin? « Diaghilev Cowboy:

[...] odds favor the incumbents.

Jun 16, 2009 - 12:41 pm 88. AThinkingPerson:

Why is it that the liberal posters here still haven’t offered up any responses as to why Obama is handling this situation so poorly? We’ve heard about Bush’s handling of it, how Conservatives wanted to bomb them, blah, blah, blah….

but not one mention of Obama and this situation from the liberals. Very telling.

Jun 16, 2009 - 12:50 pm 89. Narcissist In Chief Comments On Iran In A Cautious Way : Stop The ACLU:

[...] Michael Leeden writes Western governments have expressed dismay at the violence, and Obama, in his eternally narcissistic way, said that he was deeply disturbed by it, and went on to add that freedom of speech, etc., were universal values and should be respected by the mullahs. I would have preferred a strong statement of condemnation–stressing the evil of killing peaceful demonstrators–but he finally said something. [...]

Jun 16, 2009 - 12:54 pm 90. Войска ПВО:

Mr Ledeen,

Ignore sheesh, he is the typical stupid leftist troll; doesn’t know his ass from a bowling ball.

Jun 16, 2009 - 12:56 pm 91. vivo:

74. Fen:

“Sidebar: Redneck is a bigoted racial slur aimed at rural whites. You might as well say call them “niggers”. Its also ironic – ignorantly using a stereotype to claim they are ignorant bigots.”

That’s the whole point. I guess my statement was hard to understand. Your words are better.

76. Delia: you missed the point, see above.

77. Alireza:

“There is also news that Russia has sent over 100 of its agents to Iran to give advice to Ahmadinejad against “Green Revolution”, given their experience in Ukraine.”

Does it take 100 people to give advice?

Ahmadinejad must be desperate and over his head. What’s the Big Boss (Ayatollah K) waiting for?

78. AThinkingPerson:

“but not one mention of Obama and this situation from the liberals.”

Call me liberal, progressive better, but Obama is handling this in a way you cannot understand. The days of threats and demagoguery are hopefully gone.

Jun 16, 2009 - 1:18 pm 92. AThinkingPerson:

Re Vivo: “Call me liberal, progressive better, but Obama is handling this in a way you cannot understand. ”

Seriously? That’s your answer to Obama’s ineffectual handling of this? So, in a way I don’t understand. Fine. What about in a way that the rest of the world can understand? If even a liberal Obamafan like yourself can’t summarize his plan, we’re screwed.

Does HE even understand the situation is the question. The world is guessing that no, he does not. Too bad there isn’t a “quit protesting and go back to your hovels so I can resume my flowery rhetoric” speech loaded on the trusty teleprompter.

Jun 16, 2009 - 1:31 pm 93. A Hodgepodge of Voices on Iran | Mosaic Media:

[...] Michael Leeden gives his take (HT: Michelle Malkin).

Jun 16, 2009 - 1:34 pm 94. Войска ПВО:

“Call me liberal, progressive better, but Obama is handling this in a way you cannot understand. The days of threats and demagoguery are hopefully gone.”

..in ways he cannot understand. The guy’s lost in space, in over his head, and has NO FREAKING CLUE.

You want proof? Check out how President Training Pants (then Candidate Training Pants) handled himself last Summer when Russia/Georgia went ito overtime. He shuffles out cluelessly in his Bermudas and flip-flops, mumbles some vacuous, “me too” response (after McCain’s pronouncements), blinks in the Honolulu sunshine, mumbles to an adoring press, and shuffles back in to have a smoke.

Then there’s the clutching of that tub of goo from Venezuela, the prostrating himself in front of the Saudi camel jockey, and the European and Desert butt-smooching apology junkets.

The guy’s more wothless than a used Pampers.

Jun 16, 2009 - 1:36 pm 95. Ponder:

Note to Mullahs: If you wish to have a more docile sheeple. You should allow Western values into Iran. Who couldn’t love a liberal feminist welfare state, open homosexuality, moral depravity, conspicuous consumption, pornograhpy, endless drug usage, pedophilia with nonstop child kidnappings and murders on TV every night, political corruption at all levels of government, financial abuses and corruption on Wall Street, MSM in the pocket of left-wing marxists, common people losing jobs, homes and families while movie and sports stars pull down hundreds of millions of dollars in salaries, non-stop immigration taking millions of jobs away from native populations, millions of criminals walking the streets from gang banging thugs to serial killers to right wing nut jobs to returning veterans, along with the usurpation of the constitution and the political process by the president of the united states. Oops, have I just commited a hateful thought crime that will result in being sent to a re-education camp.

Jun 16, 2009 - 1:40 pm 96. Meryl:

obama is only days away from just sitting in a chair in the residential area of the White House, chainsmoking, hands trembling, snapping at Michelle and the girls to leave him alone…and she’s wondering how much to tell Rahm about how he’s unraveling.

He’s already doing it on the weekends, and is barely able to pull himself together for the cameras on Monday.

Reality has to be a unpleasant shock if it has been successfully avoided for the first 47 years of life.

Jun 16, 2009 - 1:46 pm 97. stuart Williamson:

It is much too early to get all lathered up. There are many factions among the protesters, and no evidence of organized armed revolt. As always, the violence is primarily generated by youthful hotheads, students and the jobless. The objections are centered on the dishonesty of the “victory” proclamation, and most of the demonstrations are silent marches to convey the magnitude of nationwide dissent. They are not “reaching out to the U.S.” for support.

Nothing that happens is going to change Iran’s nuclear intransigence, so Obama’s wimpy words are probably an adequate response.

Go to “Contentions” which has Michael Totten frequently posting from Teheran.

Jun 16, 2009 - 1:54 pm 98. disturber:

I am repeating a post I made at Flopping Aces, but I feel it is helpful to this discussion.

There was nothing brilliant about Obama’s Cairo speech and in fact, it was naïve and terribly risky. His entreaties to the Mullahs amounted to an ratification of their legitimacy, which is ultimately now at stake now in the streets. His granting of “permission” for Iran to become nuclear without limiting that to power generation undercuts the possibility of negotiated end to their weapons program. But most importantly, he effectively chose sides in the then upcoming election where there was ample pre-election evidence that Ahmadinejad was not popular and there was a good possibility that he might not be legitimately elected for a second term. One assumes that Obama pays attention during his intelligence briefings. When it publically began to appear that Ahmadinejad was on the defensive and could lose, Obama followed up with his “hope and change” mantra and celebrated the “vigorous debate” among young Iranians over the merits of the candidates. He made it absolutely clear that he intended to take credit when such change materialized as he has done with the defeat of Hezbollah in Lebanon, a demonstrably false claim, by the way.

I believe Obama’s precocious claim was simply too much for the Mullahs and was the major impetus in their stealing the election. After all there is nothing in Mousavi’s background to suggest that he was any great liberal or that he was less favored by the Mullahs who after all, allowed him to run. Notwithstanding his electioneering positions suggesting better relationships with the rest of the world, it was not likely that he would take on the Supreme Ruler until now and Obama could never have foreseen that. What is key here is once the Mullahs saw that Obama was effectively rooting for Mousavi and prepared to take credit for his election, there was no way they were going to let a President of the Great Satan influence their election.

Now, with the opposition to Ahmadinejad so pervasive, another foreign policy challenge arises. If Ahmadinejad ends up as president, he will never be perceived as legitimate and little more than a puppet. Negotiations with a puppet are not promising. The most likely outcome now is that Mousavi will ultimately be the president as that is the only way the Mullahs can quiet the unrest short of mass murder. If that materializes, Mousavi will be under tremendous pressure to liberalize as much as is possible and to carry out his promise to open up to the world. Now is the time for Obama to step up and support the Iranian people. It is risk free, for Ahmadinejad is finished. But Obama is not a bold leader. He doesn’t cherish American values and cannot bring himself to act with a moral purpose. Here is the incredible opportunity to build a bridge to the next Iranian president and he is blowing it.

The Iranians are protesting the theft of the election. They want whatever democracy they can get and they are rioting in the streets, getting shot at and beaten. I have read frequently that young Iranians crave contact with the West. There are comments in the Tweets that the regime’s enforcers are imported Arabs and possibly Venezuelans sent by Chavez. There are rumors that the army has refused to attack their own people. The regime is taking a very hard line stance and Obama sits it out, waiting for the outcome so that he can craft a response that curries favor with the Mullahs. This is a complete abdication of leadership. He should be out in front, condemning the use of force and urging Iran to confirm the legitimacy of the election to the rest of the world.

But, as I have said before, democracy is not among his core values and his reaction here sheds light on his attitude toward Israel, which is after all a thriving democracy and which Obama could just as easily do without. No, he won’t meddle in Iranian politics but when it comes to Israel he acts like it is the 58th state. Hold onto your seats folks, there is going to be lots of excitement from the Middle East, and it may not be very nice.

Jun 16, 2009 - 2:14 pm 99. Saahle Manesh:

So far this thing leaves a lot to be desired: I guess I want things to evolve faster from just internal regime goons ‘change of guards’ demands to real fundamental demands of regime change and for the crowd to start looking for solutions outside the regime, not inside of it.

I think it was initially partly orchestration to change gaurds without endangering the regime to fall — orchestration by both the regime ‘reformists’ faction as well as their western backers in EU and now in the White House(read Brezhinski et al)-–, but perhaps they did not expect it to mushroom like this most likely, and anything could happen as the law of probability takes over the planned event.

It is crucial for the secular democratic opposition inside and outside Iran
to interject their demands onto the movement NOW; Reza Pahlavi, National Front of Iran, Hezb-eh Iran(Khosrow Sayf), etc. and all the rest of the secular democratic entities should join hands and make themselves present in this uprising and start leading this huge anger & energy towards regime change, not just towards the lame “Mousavi in, Nejad and Khamenei out” thing that we are seeing now.

The chants of “Allah-O-Akbar”(God’s Great) from the roof tops is a relic from 1979 when Islamists did the same thing. So, it really made my skin crawl when I read that some people are now doing the same thing from roof tops again; it created fo rme the doubt that this thing may be a regime-orchestrated event and not a genuine revolt.

We need to channel & re-direct this movement so they go to the roof tops and sing the “Ay Iran” ballad instead(a classic and very well-known secular & highly nationalistic song that every Iranian has heard of and knows – its origins go back to the Constitutional Revolution a 100-years ago.)–This “allah-O-Akbar” farce just doesn’t cut it right now, and it seems like a diversionary tactic used by regime goons most likely to portray this rebellion as a regime-friendly event.

So suffice it to say, that so far, I am afraid it does not look, sound, or feel like the real thing at all.

But Let’s wait & see what if anything this grows into, mass psychology in crowds is often unpredictable and non-linear.

Jun 16, 2009 - 2:39 pm 100. Dismayed:

What’s the difference between liberal democrats in the USA and the theocratic mullahs of Iran. Not one iota! Both require rigid obedience to their own form of groupThink and politics. The left-wing morons in congress are about to pass thought-crime legislation that will make free speech on diverse subjects as immigration and homosexuality a crime. Boy, was that weasel in the white house handed a bonus to distract the opiated masses in the US from noticing that their constitutional rights being eliminated. Who cares about what’s happenning in Iran! Our political leaders are turning America into a left-wing maxist theocratic state with Climate Change as the new religion and subserviance to the state as our only rights. Liberals need to ask themselves what rights did the peasants have in Stalins, or Mao’s, or Pol-Pot’s, or Myanmars totalitarian regime. Subserviance to BO’s marist totalitarian state will be no different.

Jun 16, 2009 - 2:39 pm 101. Typos_R_us:

“Glen, if this is a popular uprising, as Ledeen describes it, then a new government that arises from it will not be in the terror exporting, destroy Israel business.”

Evidence please!
I don’t expect a regime change will create a policy change. BOTH sides want an Iranian nuke, what they are working out is who gets the button.
Will it be Mad Dog Mullah “A” or Mad Dog Mullah “B”?

In America one of the requirements to be POTUS is the willingness to sell influence. That gets you money to buy votes with. In Iran one of the requirements to be the Supreme Leader is hearing voices in your head and thinking it’s Allah speaking to you.
Different strokes for different folks. As far as which system works better, right now they are winning. In the end, there can be only one.

Jun 16, 2009 - 2:43 pm 102. vivo:

80. AThinkingPerson:
81. Войска ПВО:

“So, in a way I don’t understand. Fine. What about in a way that the rest of the world can understand? If even a liberal Obamafan like yourself can’t summarize his plan, we’re screwed.”

I haven’t seen his plan. I can see what he’s doing, or not doing. You can too. Explaining it would be my guess and you already said you don’t like it, so why waste our time?

Wait and see, some things don’t happen instantly. If you can’t wait, read the Iranian Tweets, that’ll keep you busy.

Jun 16, 2009 - 3:00 pm 103. Andrea G.:

Your missing citation: http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/0,1518,630463-2,00.html

Der Spiegel quotes Voice of America saying that 5000 Lebanese Hezbollah are in Iran to help the regime in a “showdown”.

Jun 16, 2009 - 3:19 pm 104. locke:

Now we know what it takes for a school or public building not to
be named for Obama. That guy got too clever by half one too many times. Godspeed against the tyrants, friends, and know that Obama has nothing to say on your behalf.

Jun 16, 2009 - 3:24 pm 105. Hyphenated American:

The real question is why the GOP is so silent? Why can’t Dick Cheney come out and make a grand speech on Iranian revolution and push Obama to finally make a choice – is Obama for mullahs and Hezballah or is he for Iranian dissidents, democracy and America. At least someone should show some leadership in this country.
More details here:
http://hyphenatedamericans.blogspot.com/2009/06/what-iranian-dissidents-and-american.html

Jun 16, 2009 - 3:29 pm 106. Alia:

AThinkingPerson:

So Dick Luger is a “liberal Obamafan”? Nick Burns? Pat Buchanan?

What you fail to understand is that not responding with populist outrage is not weakness. Every time you respond to a bully, you legitimize his/her argument. Like the ridiculous outrage over Ortega’s diatribe against America. Obama ignored him, and by doing so, marginalized Ortega’s rant. Ortega wanted Obama to respond, and Obama refused to take the bait. Of course, if it makes you feel more manly to posture, please, be my guest. But where I come from, ignoring the ravings of nutcases who spew hateful rhetoric – or bullies in the schoolyard – only infuriates them more.

Of course, the nutcase/bully can then claim that I’m a coward for not standing up for myself, but the reality is that I’m pointing and laughing at their asinine behavior, and enjoying the spectacle of them making utter fools of themselves, and they’re left yelling into a lonely echo chamber. Just because you carry a big stick doesn’t mean you have to go around using it all the time.

With regard to Iran, if you don’t think that the Mullahs and Ahmadinejad wouldn’t jump on any pro-revolutionary comments made by Obama and the U.S. Government and use them to turn the rhetoric to their advantage, you’re living in a bubble of ignorance. Our politicians and clergy do it all the time. And sadly, far too often, it works.

If any country had tried to intervene with us in 2000’s Bush v. Gore debacle, would we have welcomed it? We would have told them to GTFO, and not in polite terms, either. Speak out, blog, and educate. On a civil, non-governmental level. But on the political stage, at this point in time, this is a matter for the Iranian people, and not a platform for American moral platitudes. Emotional populism has no place in the global political arena, and such interference – politically – would NOT be welcomed, and would in fact do more harm than good.

Jun 16, 2009 - 3:31 pm 107. ricpic:

My guess is that should the mullah-ocracy be overthrown it will be replaced by a slightly, but only slightly less bloodthirsty regime as regards Israel. And that is my only concern. Parochial of me to be sure. But I just can’t get my sympathy worked up about this particular dog of a nation that, guaranteed, will return to its vomit.

Jun 16, 2009 - 3:33 pm 108. Gary Ogletree:

Typos: The candidates were chosen by the Supreme Leader from a large field of like minded Islamists. The range of opinion among the voters is unlimited. There seems to be two basic camps, those calling for modest reforms that include some freedom for women, and those whose who will accept nothing less than the end of the theocracy. Why would they accept any less freedom than their neighbors in Iraq, if the opportunity arose? And many of these people see no turning back. The state has them in their files.

Jun 16, 2009 - 3:39 pm 109. The Anchoress — A First Things Blog:

[...] in Iran, Something Left & Right can agree on! Robert Fisk: Day of Destiny Michael Ledeen: Excellent analysis Pajamas Media: Is America Sleeping? Weekly Standard: Did Iraqi Democracy affect Iran Elections? [...]

Jun 16, 2009 - 3:40 pm 110. Fairbanks99:

George Bush, for all his mispronunciations of words, would not have spoken so vaguely about this event in Iran that people would not understand what he meant. His speech after the 9/11 attacks was very concise, with no nuance or moral equivalence. This is the time for Obama to be like Reagan calling on Gorbachev to tear down this wall. Of course, Obama will no more give a Reaganesqe speech than he will abandon socialized medicine. The Persian people are on their own, and I wish them well. I’ve known a few of them over the years, and they are a good people (some some obvious exceptions).

Jun 16, 2009 - 4:18 pm 111. Carol:

Once again, Obama choose the wrong path in response to recent events in Iran.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090616/ap_on_go_pr_wh/us_us_iran

Un-freaking-believable

Jun 16, 2009 - 5:03 pm 112. Marie Claude:

Western Misconceptions Meet Iranian Reality (from stratfor)

http://bit.ly/6OS3A

groundly, nothing will change who ever stay or get the position

there have been 58 deaths and 300 wounded in the whole Iran though

Jun 16, 2009 - 5:08 pm 113. AThinkingPerson:

Re Vivo: Read their tweets? Why not just hear it straight from their mouths (from CNN no less)…

http://hotair.com/archives/2009/06/14/cnn-producer-iranian-students-say-theyre-doomed-if-obama-accepts-the-iranian-election/

Jun 16, 2009 - 5:14 pm 114. Robert Belvedere:

Of course, for The White House, this is an ‘unwelcome distraction’.

You, sir, are the Capo Di Tutti Capi of Iranian experts.

Quoted from and linked to this posting at:
http://www.thecampofthesaints.com/2009.06.14_arch.html#1245160249565

Jun 16, 2009 - 5:40 pm 115. Wisco:

A couple of points. 1) it’s not a revolution. Mousavi was a pre-approved candidate, even if he was set up to fail. He’s obviously pro-Iran. To pretend that he’s some leader of a second revolution is to set yourself up for deep disappointment.

2) if Obama were to come out — as you seem to believe he should — and make some sort of stronger statement, what do you really believe the outcome would be? Do you seriously believe it would make any difference at all?

All in all, this post seems to hinge less on reality and more on wishful thinking, blind ideology, and a shortage of critical thinking.

In short, it was obviously written by a post-Bush conservative.

Jun 16, 2009 - 6:19 pm 116. sheesh:

What are the options?
1) Mindless empty rhetoric.
2) Pre-emptive strikes or invasion to promote regime change
3) Careful and cautious analysis

Here’s a hint: Republicans prefer #1 and #2

Jun 16, 2009 - 6:31 pm 117. AThinkingPerson:

Re Sheesh: Careful and cautious analysis? Yes, that’ll work when people are being shot in the streets of Iran. Obama seems to be taking the “do nothing and hope it goes away” option. I guess that would be #4 on your list?

Jun 16, 2009 - 6:52 pm 118. vivo:

113. AThinkingPerson:

“Re Vivo: Read their tweets? Why not just hear it straight from their mouths”

The students have their rhetoric and expect miracles. If Ahmadinejad lost big, the majority will get their will. What do you expect the USA to do?

Do you want the Iranians (or anybody else) send their troops to the USA when riots erupt in any city?

Maybe this is the best time to send Al Franken over there; he knows how to count votes . . .

Jun 16, 2009 - 8:17 pm 119. Delia:

118. vivo,

Med time much?

Jun 16, 2009 - 8:21 pm 120. sheesh:

117. AThinkingPerson:. . .” Careful and cautious analysis? Yes, that’ll work when people are being shot in the streets of Iran. ”

OK, what’s your approach?

Jun 16, 2009 - 8:31 pm 121. Dave:

Our leftist friend posters have it exactly wrong (again). It is not empty rhetoric for the still greatest nation in history and in our time (for the time being) to express support for people who strive for freedom and real democracy. For the election to be even a consideration while this oppressive dictatorship exists is remarkable in it’s own right. Instead, our President votes “present”.

The “empty rhetoric” argument is our leftist poster attempt at protecting their champion and it is…well…empty.

Jun 16, 2009 - 8:56 pm 122. vivo:

119. Delia:

Doctor orders: one Mojito, two Riesling, three sashimi, four asparagus, five green beans, six kiwis, seven strawberries, eight See’s chocolates, nine blueberries and ten tacos.

Salud!

Jun 16, 2009 - 8:57 pm 123. Typos_R_us:

If this has already been linked, I apologize. I’m not about to scan 120+ posts to see if it has;

http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2009/06/western_misconception_iran_rea.html

I think George has the best slant on what will happen. If you are a skip to the chase person, the short version is ‘not much’. If the government was going to fall in Iran, it would have done so already.
As far as negoiations between Iran and the USA, Iran won’t give up it’s nukes and the USA won’t withdraw from the ME, so any negotiations will go nowhere. Although it will be a diplomatic ‘win’ for Iran just to get the USA to the negotiating table. Like North Korea, the process of negotiation gives them a legitimacy they otherwise couldn’t get.
State has always been against negotiating with Iran bcause it is a lose, lose propasition for the USA. It will be an interesting test to see if the Usurper will make the Department of State do something they don’t want to do. He had no luck with the CIA

Jun 16, 2009 - 9:25 pm 124. a Duoist:

A million people gather in the streets of Tehran protesting against Dr. Ahmadinejad and the election results, but no one thinks to peel off a few thousand protestors and drive to Qom to break the Grand Ayatollah Montazeri out of his 20-year house arrest? If widely-venerated 87 year old Montazeri appeared and grabbed a bullhorn in Tehran, FIVE(!) million people would flood into the Tehran streets and quickly arrest Ahmadinejad and Khameini. Iranians would have their ‘green’ velvet revolution, the Islamic Republic would be preserved, a sham democracy would be replaced by a genuine religious democracy, and the entire world would stand dumb in ossified, embarrassed shame.

If the protestors can put a million people into the Tehran streets on just one day’s notice, why can’t they break Montazeri out of house arrest in Qom?

Jun 16, 2009 - 10:49 pm 125. john from cinncinatti:

persians are not arabs and they don’t think alike. for the clock is right at least twice a day, the big O’s response might be what is required at the moment. neither side needs the distraction of the USA picking a side. they, like us have to choose their very own petard in which to impale themselves on. having said that, can we send them some form of help just like they did us? i hope we are doing it on the sly, time will tell.

Jun 16, 2009 - 10:53 pm 126. Fred2:

Support Iran This Way

Send pictures of your protest to the Iranian protesters.

1. Print out a bunch of support images and have your friends hold them as protest signs. Take a photo of your crowd.

2. Send your crowd photos to Iran or put them on a flickr page for the Iranians to print out. They can use them in their demonstrations. Seeing the pictures of support from all over the world will give them a boost.

3. Send this idea to your friends.

Try using this photo or the graphic in this photo. The black-and-white logo will need to be redrawn, but will go through any copier cheaply.

Or get icons from Creative Bits.

Jun 17, 2009 - 12:48 am 127. fear Obama:

The Iranians suffered 8 years (1980-1988) of war with Iraq and about 1 million casualty’s.
No one really knows.

Saddam did the same thing to them we did to him. Surprise attack.

We supplied the Iraqis with weapons of mass destruction.

Poison gas artillery shells and trench warfare.

They don’t love us very much- I wonder why?

But I do know they don’t want war with Israel or America.

But Dr. Mud Aberdinnerjerkoff keeps pissing Israel and the west off pretending he is a short little tough guy and begging for a Nuclear war with both.

The UN sanctions must also be working.

Soooo-

If I were an Iranian and tired of war, and hearing about a future war.
I also would want to be rid of that little piece of Shite and his 1,000 year old dark well dwelling God of war.

Jun 17, 2009 - 12:50 am 128. Dudely:

Couple of things you miss out.

The mullahs encompass as whole range of political beliefs and trends from liberal to right wing. Much like Christians in the USA. To deride them all and to lump them all together shows your failure to grasp basics of Iranian politics. They will be as big a part of the solution as they are the problem.

Secondly – no real evidence exists that Hezbollah have sent their people there. It is just a rumour. To present it as a fact undoes all the good work of reporters who endanger themselves to get the truth out.

Thirdly – no, Iran shouldn’t become a USA satellite. Leave them to sort it out themselves. The last time the USA and West got involved was the 50s when the Iranians installed a democratic government only to see the USA sponsor its overthrow and install the demagogue, the Shah. That’s why so much anti-Americanism exists in Iran.

Finally – your hypocrisy is staggering – the USA has plenty of allies who are far less democratic than Iran and far more religiously fanatic. Saudi Arabia being the obvious case. The USA doesn’t like Iran because it’s one of a handful of nations that stands up to it – so it is demonised in exactly the same way it demonises the West.

Jun 17, 2009 - 2:15 am 129. Francesco Costa » links for 2009-06-16:

[...] So How’s it Going in Iran? – Michael Ledeen Does Mousavi even want to change the system? I think he does, and in any event, I think that’s the wrong question. He is not a revolutionary leader, he is a leader who has been made into a revolutionary by a movement that grew up around him. The real revolutionary is his wife, Zahra Rahnavard. And the real question, the key question in all of this, is: why did Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei permit her to become such a charismatic figure? How could he have made such a colossal blunder? It should have been obvious that the very existence of such a woman threatened the dark heart of the Islamic Republic, based as it is on the disgusting misogyny of its founder, the Ayatollah Khomeini. [...]

Jun 17, 2009 - 2:44 am 130. AThinkingPerson:

Re #120 Vivo: I’d suggest that Obama at least have a friggin opinion for once. Instead of the “aw shucks” attitude and the “the world must coalesce” BS, MAN UP AND GET A BACKBONE.

I guess that’s what liberals always hated Bush so much. He actually had an opinion and never wavered no matter how much the pacifists and the liberals and the media tried to knock him.

I miss those days of knowing where our President stood. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see what Rahm or MSNBC tell him to do.

Jun 17, 2009 - 5:18 am 131. My News Summary, 6/17/2009 « Mr. Smith Goes Conservative Blogging:

[...] in Iran: Iran ‘Election’ Update, Iran 6/16- The Fire Still Burning…, and So How’s it Going in Iran?. The first article argues that it’s all over, while the last two articles argue that Iran is [...]

Jun 17, 2009 - 5:53 am 132. Ironheadz:

What Motivates Ahmadinejad?
The president of Iran appears intent on developing nuclear weapons and has repeatedly threatened to wipe Israel off the face of the earth. In the West he is at times portrayed as a madman, but few realize the real motivating force behind his dream of triumphant Islam.
by Melvin Rhodes
It’s difficult to comprehend, but could a 5-year-old boy who went missing more than 11 centuries ago be the cause of the world’s next nuclear conflict?

Adherents of Shia Islam believe that leadership of the Muslim religion was transferred from Muhammad to his son-in-law and then down through a series of descendants. Shiites refer to each of these successors as an “imam”—Arabic for “leader.”

The 12th of these imams was born in 868 or 869. A few years later, in 874, he disappeared without a trace, bringing an end to Muhammad’s lineage. The Shiites believe that this boy, the 12th imam, survived, “that he merely withdrew from public view when he was five and that he will sooner or later emerge . . . to liberate the world from evil” (Matthias Kuntzel, “A Child of the Revolution Takes Over: Ahmadinejad’s Demons,” The New Republic, April 24).

Some refer to him as the Mahdi, meaning “divinely guided one.” In Shiite ideology—dominant in Iran and Iraq —”legitimate Islamic rule can only be established following the reappearance of the Twelfth Imam” (ibid.). As Christians wait for the second coming of Jesus Christ to establish the Kingdom of God over the earth, Shiite Muslims await the Mahdi’s return to make Islam the dominant—and eventually only— religion throughout the world.

Shiite beliefs shape Iran

Because most people in the West do not take religion seriously, it’s almost impossible for Westerners to understand the power of religion in the Middle East. In Islamic countries, politics and religion are inseparable.

The Shiites have been waiting patiently for the 12th imam for more than a thousand years, but that patience has run out, at least in Iran. In 1979 the overthrow of the pro-Western shah of Iran led to the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran, a theocratic state where the clerics held supreme power under the Ayatollah Khomeini.

“Khomeini . . . had no intention of waiting. He vested the myth with an entirely new sense: The Twelfth Imam will only emerge when the believers have vanquished evil. To speed up the Mahdi’s return, Muslims had to shake off their torpor and fight” (ibid.).

Influenced by the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood of the 1930s, Khomeini “agreed with the Brothers’ conception of what had to be considered ‘evil’: namely, all the achievements of modernity that replaced divine providence with individual self-determination, blind faith with doubt, and the stern morality of sharia [law] with sensual pleasures” (ibid.).

Khomeini believed that all that is bad in the world comes from the West, especially America, which he designated “the Great Satan.”

“Twelvers,” as this largest group of Shiite Muslims are sometimes called, believe Islam must triumph over the West before the 12th imam will appear. They feel it their duty to bring chaos to the world. Out of this chaos will come a clash of civilizations between Islam and the West that will then lead directly to the return of the 12th imam.

Thus the Tehran regime is clearly not about to enter into any agreement of substance with the West. Any treaty is only going to be used by the Iranian leadership to play for time, as President Ahmadinejad has openly boasted of doing in his drawn-out negotiations with the European Union.

As the New Republic writer Matthias Kuntzel asks, “Why should an Iranian president engage in pragmatic politics when his assumption is that, in three or four years, the savior will appear?” (ibid.).

Iranian threats to eliminate Israel

One of President Ahmadinejad’s stated goals is the total destruction of the Jewish state of Israel. Yet this isn’t new in Iranian thinking.

“In December 2001, former Iranian President Hashemi Rafsanjani explained that ‘the use of even one nuclear bomb inside Israel will destroy everything.’ On the other hand, if Israel responded with its own nuclear weapons, it ‘will only harm the Islamic world. It is not irrational to contemplate such an eventuality.’

“Rafsanjani thus spelled out a macabre cost-benefit analysis. It might not be possible to destroy Israel without suffering retaliation. But, for Islam, the level of damage Israel could inflict is bearable—only 100,000 or so additional martyrs for Islam” (ibid.).

Israel is a small country that could be essentially wiped out with just one nuclear missile, whereas the Islamic world is spread across many countries on three continents. Even if Israel retaliated with its entire nuclear arsenal, it would merely harm the Islamic community of nations, not destroy them. This was the thinking of Iran’s former “moderate” president.

The new Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is even more radical. At a November 2005 theology conference he emphasized that “the most important task of our Revolution is to prepare the way for the return of the Twelfth Imam” (ibid.).

An ancient failed attempt to exterminate the Jews

This is not the first time that a powerful leader has tried to exterminate the Jews. Seventy years ago Adolf Hitler succeeded in exterminating 6 million Jews. If Iran succeeds in a nuclear strike against Israel, once again the world could see 6 million Jews wiped out!

This is not even the first time an Iranian leader has tried to wipe out the Jews. Almost 2,500 years ago many Jews lived in the ancient Persian Empire, whose modern successor state was renamed Iran after World War II. In the Old Testament book of Esther we read an account of an attempt to totally annihilate the Jews.

The story takes place in 484 B.C. during the reign of the Persian king Xerxes I, who was king from 486-465 B.C. The biblical name for Xerxes was Ahaseurus.

One of his predecessors, Cyrus the Great, had defeated Babylon, where the Jews had been taken as captives, in 539 B.C. Soon afterward he gave the Jews permission to return to Judah, which was within his empire. Many returned, but many did not. (In fact, as a result of the Babylonian captivity around 2,600 years ago, some Jews still live in Iran though many have left under the present fundamentalist Islamic regime.)

When Xerxes’ wife, Queen Vashti, refused to honor him, he divorced her and later chose Esther, a Jewess, as her successor. Esther had been brought up by her uncle, Mordecai. According to the biblical account, the king appointed a man named Haman to the second-highest position in the land, what we today would call prime minister.

Esther 3:2 states that “all the king’s servants who were within the king’s gate bowed and paid homage to Haman, for so the king had commanded concerning him. But Mordecai would not bow down or pay homage.” Haman realized that it wasn’t just Mordecai who was a problem, but that all the Jews would do as he did (verse 6). So he devised a plot to wipe them out.

After things started to unravel, Haman’s family warned him not to tackle the Jews: “When Haman told his wife Zeresh and all his friends everything that had happened to him, his wise men and his wife Zeresh said to him, ‘If Mordecai, before whom you have begun to fall, is of Jewish descent, you will not prevail against him but will surely fall before him’” (Esther 6:13).

They might have been aware of God’s promise to Abraham regarding him and his descendants: “I will bless those who bless you, and I will curse him who curses you” (Genesis 12:3). Through Mordecai and Queen Esther, God delivered the Jewish people from genocide.

Haman failed to exterminate the Jews. Hitler, though he did kill vast numbers, also failed in his genocidal efforts. Similarly, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s stated goal of wiping out the Jews of Israel will also fail. God will ultimately deliver the Jewish people from this as He has delivered them many times before.

In Matthew 24:22 we read the words of Jesus Christ, the real Messiah who is soon to return to this world: “And unless those days were shortened, no flesh would be saved; but for the elect’s sake those days will be shortened.”

Jesus Christ will intervene in world affairs to stop humanity from destroying itself in the kind of nuclear conflict that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is threatening. Not only is the Iranian president intent on destroying Israel, but he also wants to rid the world of America and Britain, the leading infidel countries, so Islam can triumph over all nations.

Islam on the rise, the West in decline

Amir Taheri, a former executive editor of Kayhan, Iran’s largest daily newspaper, who now lives in Europe, wrote in Britain’s Daily Telegraph newspaper April 16: “In Ahmadinejad’s analysis, the rising Islamic ’superpower’ has decisive advantages over the infidel. Islam has four times as many young men of fighting age as the West, with its aging populations.”

He notes that young Shiite boys are taught to develop two qualities. “The first is entezar, the capacity patiently to wait for the Imam to return. The second is taajil, the actions needed to hasten the return.”

Mr. Taheri goes on to explain that, in President Ahmadenijad’s thinking, “the Imam’s return will coincide with an apocalyptic battle between the forces of evil and righteousness, with evil ultimately routed. If the infidel loses its nuclear advantage, it could be worn down in a long, low-intensity war at the end of which surrender to Islam would appear the least bad of options. And that could be a signal for the Imam to appear.”

He had this to say about Iran’s nuclear program: “Moments after Ahmadinejad announced ‘the atomic miracle’, the head of the Iranian nuclear project, Ghulamreza Aghazadeh, unveiled plans for manufacturing 54,000 centrifuges, to enrich enough uranium for hundreds of nuclear warheads. ‘We are going into mass production,’ he boasted.

“The Iranian plan is simple: playing the diplomatic game for another two years until Bush becomes a ‘lame-duck,’ unable to take military action against the mullahs, while continuing to develop nuclear weapons . . .”

“While waiting Bush out, the Islamic Republic is intent on doing all it can to consolidate its gains in the region. Regime changes in Kabul and Baghdad have altered the status quo in the Middle East. While Bush is determined to create a Middle East that is democratic and pro-Western, Ahmadinejad is equally determined that the region should remain Islamic but pro-Iranian.

“Iran is now the strongest presence in Afghanistan and Iraq, after the US. It has turned Syria and Lebanon into its outer defenses, which means that, for the first time since the 7th century, Iran is militarily present on the coast of the Mediterranean. In a massive political jamboree in Tehran [in April], Ahmadinejad also assumed control of the ‘Jerusalem Cause’, which includes annihilating Israel ‘in one storm’, while launching a take-over bid for the cash-starved Hamas government in the West Bank and Gaza.”

Mr. Taheri also points out that Tehran has “reactivated Iran’s network of Shia organizations in Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Yemen, while resuming contact with Sunni fundamentalist groups in Turkey, Egypt, Algeria and Morocco.”

Islamic fundamentalism in a variety of forms is spreading from country to country with no successful reverses. The latest country to come under the control of fundamentalists is Somalia, whose capital city, Mogadishu, fell to militants in early June.

Militant Islam is a powerful force that seems destined to grow greater and to bring increasing turmoil around the world. Among the adherents of Shia Islam the expectation of the Mahdi is feeding their zeal toward the fulfillment of apocalyptic events.

The Shiites expect a messiah. One will come, but not the one they think they are preparing for! GN

Jun 17, 2009 - 6:35 am 133. j green:

I finally figured out a way to commend BarryHussein!

Barry is so inept and incompetent that the Iranians finally realized they really are all alone. In the fight for freedom, BarryHussein decided he is not the leader of the free world. So is Barry’s incompetence a contributing factor? Will BarryHitlerHusseinOsama try to use the above spin?

Unfortunately, without a leader of the free world involved, this fight becomes much more difficult to bring to its desired conclusion.

Jun 17, 2009 - 9:34 am 134. Watcher of Weasels » Agitator and Agitprop in Chief:

[...] Submitted By: Wolf Howling – Michael Ledeen @ PJM – So How’s It Going In Iran? [...]

Jun 17, 2009 - 1:03 pm 135. The Quantum Conservative » Blog Archive » Iran Thread Cont.:

[...] *So How’s It Going in Iran?

Jun 17, 2009 - 1:09 pm 136. SM:

So we can say that, at least for the moment, there is a revolutionary mass in the streets of Tehran.

——–
A minority of extremists, prodded by liberal marxist feminist western conspirators.

========
The upper middle class and college students –who are behind the sedition and activism (here and there) are not “the people” of Iran. Those trouble makers are a minority who want to steal power in the name of western liberalism.

Ahmadinejad and company have less privilege in that country, than your elites here in democracy have in yours.

There is no such thing as equal; the “great experiment” –called democracy– has proved that. There is no way to oust ‘have and have not’; and democracy has very much proved that over its centuries.

Most of you here at this site are anti science country folk. Yet you are against that very type holding on to power in their _own countries_, BECAUSE YOU’RE ARE THAT STUPID. You are Useful Idiots for liberal media interests!

There is no such thing as freedom or equal or any of that noise. If some classes in Iran are suppressed it is so other classes can be protected and get their rights and freedoms. Duh! (You dunces.)

The proof of this is the anglo west itself!… In the entire anglo west the rights and freedoms of the once large majority of white men have been taken away through a complex of unconstitutional political fiats hiding inside the _absolute BS of democracy_ so that liberal groups in the west can regularly attack and unconstitutionally marginalize that great majority of working class, rural men.

It would one thing if you were liberals and atheists and you supported liberal conspiracy around the globe. But you are conservatives and god types who regularly claim and believe you are being cajoled and oppressed by your own upper middle class elites. Why do you advocate that class — your enemies– strengthening themselves around the world?

Are you really that stupid?

…You have simply conformed to your own system –which by all accounts is a disaster. You don’t have the faculties for thinking about deeper stuff: what the parties and agendas and are; what the long term is. You were simply born into your culture which is run by liberal feminist atheist elites and you work as the watchdogs of that house the way american indian scouts fought for the US cavalry.

You have xenophobic, watchdog “male conformity” instincts. This is being used against you by your own elites, so they can use you as cannon fodder Useful Idiots against your own interests.

You don’t seem to be able to grasp that historically. That is your ‘age of reason’.

Jun 17, 2009 - 1:39 pm 137. Barack Hamlet Obama–To Be or Not To Be President of The United States–Failing The Iranian Test « Pronk Palisades:

[...] Michael Ledeen weighs in: What’s going to happen?, you ask. Nobody knows, even the major actors. The regime has the guns, and the opposition has the numbers. The question is whether the numbers can be successfully organized into a disciplined force that demands the downfall of the regime. Yes, I know that there have been calls for a new election, or a runoff between Mousavi and Ahmadinezhad. But I don’t think that’s very likely now. The tens of millions of Iranians whose pent-up rage has driven them to risk life and limb against their oppressors are not likely to settle for a mere change in personnel at this point. And the mullahs surely know that if they lose, many of them will face a very nasty and very brief future. [...]

Jun 17, 2009 - 2:00 pm 138. Self-hating Boomer:

The mullahs encompass as whole range of political beliefs and trends from liberal to right wing. Much like Christians in the USA.

Oh, for the love of the flying spaghetti monster, will you college-know-it-all-hippies just go grab your bongs and beat it?

Jun 17, 2009 - 3:58 pm 139. baluc/ka:

Why should we expect Obama to put out a statement in support of the protesters and freedom?

For one thing he doesn’t share American values because he wasn’t raised in a household that had them in his formative years.

He was raised in Indonesia, under the Suharto dictatorship, by a Muslim stepfather who did some work for the government. Later, he was to be preached to by an self hating American for over 20 years.

His handling of what is going on in Iran is to be expected. “Political football”, my ass.

If events in Iran turn bloody and we still continue the appeasement route by this administration with Ahmadinejad, Obama’s political epithet has already been written by yours truly:

OBAMADINEJAD

Jun 18, 2009 - 12:54 am 140. vivo:

130. AThinkingPerson:

“I miss those days of knowing where our President stood.”

Sorry, new world, different thinking.

Jun 18, 2009 - 5:05 am 141. Commentary » Blog Archive » The Enigmatic Mousavi:

[...] that Mousavi has changed. Michael Ledeen seems to think so. “He is not a revolutionary leader,” he wrote, “he is a leader who has been made into a revolutionary by a movement that grew up around [...]

Jun 18, 2009 - 11:25 am 142. BizzyBlog » Lucid Links (061809, Late Morning):

[...] Net-Worthies: Michael Ledeen: “The Iranian people know that they’re on their own; they aren’t going to get any help [...]

Jun 18, 2009 - 12:09 pm 143. Rachel Maddow Show: Just the Beginning in Iran « Schmoozing with Elya & Ellie Katz:

[...] insightful and hopeful – So What’s Going to Happen Now by Michael Ledeen of Pajamas [...]

Jun 18, 2009 - 4:51 pm 144. Aussie:

First of all, I think it is better that Obama does not say anything that will inflame the present regime. However, I think his statement was extremely weak, and I believe that he has thrown the Iranian people under the bus (it is getting very crowded under that bus).

Second, I think that Obama should have come out with a statement that condemned the obvious rigging of the election results, and at the same time condemning the regime violence against the people of Iran. I have seen enough photos of dead people, people being beaten by the Dinnerjacket thugs etc to believe that this is a situation of human rights violations.

Third, I believe that my own country and the USA should stand up and state that they will not deal with this illegal regime.

For too long the press and the enablers have allowed Dinnerjacket too much time to espouse his brand of hatred against others, especially his sicko holocaust denials. For too long the press has been enabling this thug, and giving him time that he does not deserve.

Jun 18, 2009 - 6:02 pm 145. Folklight:

Fearful rulers attempt to control with Fear…
Faith is the antithesis to Fear
Faith is only as strong as the object of the faith

Truth is powerful-lies are as quicksand…

The degree of deceit illustrates depth of depravity…
Is Iran being Crucified?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Crucifixion of Iran:http://www.iranian.ws/cgi-bin/iran_news/exec/view.cgi/5/12824

Jun 19, 2009 - 6:28 am 146. Why the Neo-Conservatives Love to Hate Ahmadinejad | Design Website:

[...] system? I think he does, and in any event, I think that’s the wrong question,” Ledeen wrote on Monday. “He is not a revolutionary leader, he is a leader who has been made into a [...]

Jun 19, 2009 - 3:46 pm 147. DUALL:

Thank you author for all of this info most mainstream news sources have reported. I am English and the reporting here in britain is absolute bollocks. I admire your contribution very much. There is just one grievence I have with you, I consider myself a Reagan conservative really, and even I think you guys ought to give Obama the time of day. Though I largly disagree with his policies, I do not think he is evil. More importantly I think he has responded to the Iran crisis very well. Whether you know it or not, unlike the US and USSR there is history of The US undermining Iranian democracy. This makes the “mr gorbechov tear down your wall” option impossible in Iran. we deposed a popolularly elected president in 1953 for being two left wing, and there is a lot of resentment in Iran against us both. This means that injecting ourselves into Iranian politics could seem like trying to prop up a pro west government again. That could totally deride the current revolution. I hate to say in but your prez is for once right.

Jun 19, 2009 - 11:46 pm 148. DUALL:

Sorry I have to post again. I really don’t think you get it. Firstly Ahmadinejad is khamenei and mousovi is rasfandjanis. Secondly, it is so clear that you guys dislike obama sheerly for his colour no other real reason. You guys need to be more results oriented and less rhetoric obsessed.

Jun 20, 2009 - 12:01 am 149. The Captain’s Journal » Analysts Miss Iran’s Hidden Revolution:

[...] trust him, although he does point out that Michael Ledeen believes that there has been a transformation in his views.

Jun 20, 2009 - 10:55 pm 150. WorldMojo.com » Fact vs. Fiction: Hamas and Hezbollah in Iran Cracking Down on Protestors?:

[...] yes, that means not listening to the same folks who lied to us about Iraq, namely Michael Ledeen.

Jun 24, 2009 - 8:26 pm 151. Violence In Iran - 1:

[...] [...]

Jul 29, 2009 - 3:39 pm

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