The Iranian tyrant, Ali Khamenei, told his cluster of top advisers two days ago that it was time to totally shut down the protests, and he ordered that any and all demonstrators, regardless of their status, be arrested (although there is no longer room for new prisoners in Tehran’s jails; they are now using sports arenas as holding areas). He further ordered that all satellite dishes be taken down (good luck with that one; there are probably millions of them in Tehran alone). He ordered that the crackdown be done at night, to avoid all those annoying videos. By Sunday night, hundreds of new arrests had been made, including the regime’s favorite targets: students, intellectuals, and journalists.
His deadline: July 11th. He told his minions that if that were accomplished, the rest of the world would come crawling to him.
He may be right about most of the rest of the world, which has distinguished itself by its fecklessness, but he is certainly not right about his own people, who have sabotaged a major petroleum pipeline in Lurestan, and who are planning to go on strike in the next few days. I don’t know the provenance of the people who hit the pipeline (perhaps the fact that the political desk of the Tehran Times reported it is significant), but calls for strikes, building towards a big demonstration on July 9th, come from Mousavi, Karroubi and Khatami.
Mousavi got a big boost over the weekend from an important group of senior clerics in the holy city of Qom. They branded the “elections” and the new government that will shortly be sworn in, as illegitimate. This is a serious matter, leading Stanford’s Professor Abbas Milani to say “This crack in the clerical establishment, and the fact they are siding with the people and Moussavi, in my view is the most historic crack in the 30 years of the Islamic republic.” They are also explicitly siding with Mousavi, who released a detailed critique/expose of the fraud that confirmed Ahmadinezhad in office.
So Khamenei is under pressure, and he is not well equipped to deal with it. He has a serious cancer, and takes opiates to mitigate the pain. People around him are whispering that his decisions are poorly reasoned and often impulsive, and some of those close to him, including his son, are apparently issuing orders in his name. This sort of rumor is devastating for the sort of personal rule upon which the Islamic Republic rests. We’ll see in the coming days if the Mousavi forces are able to maintain and increase the pressure, and how Khamenei and his henchmen respond.
At the moment, there is evidence of some panic, as Iranian leaders are exporting their wealth.
Meanwhile, the American Government was sending conflicting signals to Tehran. On the one hand, it seems that Obama will be going to the upcoming G8 conference with a request that there be no new sanctions on Iran. This comes at a time when the Europeans, for the first time, seem inclined to get at least a little bit tougher on the mullahs, and it effectively demolishes the myth that this administration intends to do anything to support the Iranian people in their life and death struggle for freedom (perhaps this should not surprise us; after all, Obama’s 4th of July message did not contain the word “freedom,” but it did talk a lot about his own legislative proposals). At the same time, Vice President Joe Biden three times said the United States would do nothing to prevent an Israeli attack against Iranian nuclear targets.
So apparently we’re prepared to let the Israelis do our dirty work. A real standup sort of policy.
UPDATE: A great video on the Iranian uprising. Notice the many women with uncovered heads.
UPDATE II: The 3-day strike. Apparently the regime was so worried about the strike that they shut down most factories, businesses and offices. This is another sign of regime insecurity. And Mousavi today (Monday) received several distinguished visitors, including Khomeini’s grandson.
PJM Home
Accomplice to Evil: Iran and the War Against the West
The Iranian Time Bomb: The Mullah Zealots’ Quest for Destruction
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43 Comments
1. David W. Lincoln:With the KSA giving an okay for IAF jets to flyover the Kingdom, you can be sure that Riyadh
wants to be on the ascendant side when Teheran is put in its place by those outside of Iran.
When this is viewed in concert with what is going on in Iran, there is room for hope.
After all, when strikes were used behind the Iron Curtain, changes came. Whether it was the Velvet Revolution or Solidarity coming into being.
Jul 5, 2009 - 11:01 pm 2. maximus:Roozbeh Farahanipour, one of the leaders
of the 1999 student uprising in Iran and other members and leaders of the
Marze-Por-Gohar (MPG) Party are back in Iran in preparation of demonstrations for the July 9th anniversary;
http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS54966+05-Jul-2009+PRN20090705
Jul 6, 2009 - 1:27 am 3. David Thomson:“Meanwhile, the American Government was sending conflicting signals to Tehran.”
The American general public is also sending mixed signals to Iran. Demonstrations against the mullahs in the United States are relatively modest affairs. However, the funeral of Michael Jackson will reportedly attract over a million mourners! Isn’t it great to know that we have our priorities straight?
Jul 6, 2009 - 4:30 am 4. IRAN: The Storm Ahead « This Too Shall Pass:[...] via Faster, Please! » The Storm Ahead. [...]
Jul 6, 2009 - 8:51 am 5. Winston:July 9th will be the tenth anniversary of the 1999 student uprising. There’ll be major rallies and protests around the country. We’ll see what happens in a few days. This regime’s back is badly broken for all I know.
Jul 6, 2009 - 9:17 am 6. Pajamas Media » The Storm Ahead in Iran:[...] Read the entire piece here. [...]
Jul 6, 2009 - 10:05 am 7. X Contra:His Cairo address uses the word “free” once, “freedom” 5 times. Pathetic.
http://tinyurl.com/cairo-free
http://preview.tinyurl.com/cairo-free
http://manyeyes.alphaworks.ibm.com
Jul 6, 2009 - 10:25 am 8. Sherab Zangpo:I don’t know.
Maybe the words of Biden show that a crack is opening between the Great Ayatollah Obama and some other fraction of the mad-democra-mullahs.
Thank you for the opportunity to comment.
Jul 6, 2009 - 11:11 am 9. Paul -Indiana:As always, Israel won’t ask for permission to protect itself. Nor should it. When you have a gutless wonder ‘present’ in the White house, Israel knows that self defence is all it has.
Jul 6, 2009 - 11:21 am 10. Strawman:How many cycles is this behind? Michael Jackson, Cap’n tax, Honduras, Sarah Palin, what’s an Iran?
Dude. This is the ADD generation.
Jul 6, 2009 - 11:25 am 11. Professor Guvinoff:Tectonic shifts in the loyalties of the clergy. A sick “supreme” leader. Sabotaged infrastructure. Stadiums full of arrested folks. Strikes soon to come.
Can any of this help the economy?
What more do you need, for a military coup?
What better conditions for an Israeli attack?
And the POTUS is voting “present”? For the sake of stability? Distraction a-coming…
Jul 6, 2009 - 11:52 am 12. John Moore:Dr. Ledeen has always had a lot of hope for an overthrow of the Iranian government by its people.
I am less sanguine. A regime can be hated by most of its people and still survive – by sheer ruthlessness and proper tending to the needs of its enforcers.
I wish the rebels well and hope they succeed, but the odds are strongly against them.
Also – even if they win, how does Iran end up? Does it get a democratic government that hates Israel? Polls have shown that it would still seek nuclear weapons (national interest has a cross-ideological nature).
In other words, if this set of bad guys is thrown out, what are the chances that the next set will be better, either for them, or (more importantly to me), for us?
Jul 6, 2009 - 11:58 am 13. David Thomson:“what’s an Iran?”
The mourners attending Michael Jackson’s funeral probably know next to nothing about Iran or any other major issue. Moreover, the vast majority probably vote for Democratic Party candidates—if they vote at all. This is what also makes Barack Obama, our so-called celebrity president so dangerous. He has a lock on these brain dead types. What’s an Iran? Did the Gloved One ever perform there? If not, the attendees could care less.
Jul 6, 2009 - 12:01 pm 14. Sebastian Shaw:A good positive change might come to Iran while President Obama–seeking to supplicate to the Mullahs–votes “present” once more. What spineless follower the One is; however, I have known since he started campaigning 2 years ago for President of the United States that he is a follower with no real tools for leadership the Office of the President needs. The MSM is not helping matters with the stupid Michael Jackson coverage.
Jul 6, 2009 - 12:04 pm 15. marcus waldron:You are the guy who claimed that Khamenei was dead.
Jul 6, 2009 - 1:21 pm 16. support iran:Can anybody point to a source for the claim that khamenei has cancer? This is the first time I heard this claim, and a google search does not turn up anything except the usual “israel is a cancer” bullshit from khamenei.
Jul 6, 2009 - 2:02 pm 17. Alireza:Reading what Sarkozy of France said—saying: “Really, the Iranian people deserve better than the leaders they have today.”– was indeed a new GUTSY way to deal with the power holders in Iran. I was impressed with what he said. Now the MAIN thing is that he BACK UP his words with ACTIONS. ACTIONS like: A- NOT giving visa or access to any of the top leadership in Iran INCLUDING any of the their close relatives and associates. B- FREEZING any kind of deals that has been made in ALL aspects of commerce including their car industries. Such freezing MUST INCLUDE those deals that France needs them much more than Iran. This is the real show of power that it means WE MEAN BUSINESS and we let go of such short-term interests.
Keeping up SIMILAR public statement which shows not only they DO NOT REGRET what they said but they keep saying it over and over with minor changes, so they do not become like “Axis of Evil” statement. They should not become cliché.
Meanwhile, when I read the BBC about Miliband response for his employees arrests in Tehran, he sounds like a man trapped in a cul-de-sac while demonstrating against Khamenei, and he is trying to convince the thugs and Basijies that he was just walking by and has no objection to what they are doing! So at times I keep wondering and wondering and more wondering these people at BBC and the government are loaded with Teflon to the DNA level and it is hard for them to take REAL ACTIONS.
According to Tabnak site names of the leaders and countries congratulating Ahmadinejad are loaded with many (not all) with people worse than Ahmadinejad. Here are the congratulators names:
President of Sudan
Russian President
President of Islamic countries
President of China
Sec. general of U.N. (I doubt that is true!)
Sec. of Lebanon Hezbolah
King of Bahrain
President of Nicaragua
Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan
Amir of Kuwait
Pres. Of Lebanon
Pres. And Prime Minister of Turkey
Pres. Of Pakistan
India prime minister
Syria
Malaysia
Turkmenistan
Yemen
Libya
Tunis
Kuwait prince
Azerbaijan
THIS IS IT! All of who is who of oppressors (except India and Pakistan who dream of the gas pipeline) everyone else is well qualified to be listed in the Interpol as Wanted and having similar DNA as Ahmadinejad.
So the rest of the world MUST NOT send any message of congratulations and also MUST COME OUT publicly saying they are having heartburns and doubt in doing so. People like Ahmadinejad and Khamenei get more damage and weakened by such disrespect and insult than military force. They cannot become a martyr when countries hold off congratulating you and saying it clearly. As an Iranian, I know this is more insulting to them than anything else. So I say to the world leaders: Show some balls and do something worthy of your country. Join Iranian people. STOP stupid political analysis and make clear call that you know well is the right thing to do.
Meanwhile, I find VP Biden is SERIOUSLY damaging both U.S. and Iranian interests in saying what he said about Israel AT THIS CRITICAL moments. His words are CLEAR MESSAGE to Ahmadinejad and Khamenei to unite. Biden words are very much the same as Bush calling Iran axis of evil at the WORST TIMING of all to weaken the reform movement in Iran. Now I wonder is his comment intentional or there are accidental, like he has done in the past. I ask President Obama have a close leash on the VP and please do some damage control. If I hear more of such statement it confirms that U.S. indeed has decided to support Ahmadinejad and Khamenei while Iranian people are fighting so hard.
Jul 6, 2009 - 2:24 pm 18. Jassem Othman:What should be U.S. policy: Best thing is SILENCE when you are confuse what to say.
Yes Mr Thomson, the vast majority they know nothing about the serious threats – to their values, their lives and even to their existence- by the tyrannical regimes and fundamentalist Islam?! They voted for the candidate that does not interesting with the high-risk issues. This administration do NOTHING for people who risk in their life for THEIR FREEDOM!!!
Jassem Othman, Syrian.
Jul 6, 2009 - 4:17 pm 19. Flopping Aces » Blog Archive » Obama Votes “Present” On Iran as The Iranian Thugs Execute Dozens:[...] Michael Ledeen: The Iranian tyrant, Ali Khamenei, told his cluster of top advisers two days ago that it was time to totally shut down the protests, and he ordered that any and all demonstrators, regardless of their status, be arrested (although there is no longer room for new prisoners in Tehran’s jails;
Jul 6, 2009 - 5:14 pm 20. Michael Ledeen:yes. wrongly, as it turned out. i so wish it had been true.
Jul 6, 2009 - 5:50 pm 21. Robert Belvedere:Thank you for the great summary of events.
You are the Capo Di Tutti Capi of Iranian experts.
Quoted from and linked to at:
Jul 6, 2009 - 5:56 pm 22. Jassem Othman:http://www.thecampofthesaints.com/2009.07.05_arch.html#1246921903288
“Vice President Joe Biden three times said the United States would do nothing to prevent an Israeli attack against Iranian nuclear targets” but at the same time, he added that Washington’s policy remained the pursuit of diplomatic means in an attempt to persuade Iran to curb its nuclear program.
Yes, Israel is a sovereign nation and they only who decide to do relative to Iran or to anyone else, and that is their sovereign right to do that and Israel has the right to protect itself, BUT, this does not mean we should use Israel as proxy to do alone such dirty thing.
Iranians should feel that the military option is still ACTIVE from the SUPERPOWER “the US” not Israel!
I hope that will be military action from the SUPERPOWER “itself” against Iranian nuclear targets.
Jassem Othman, Syrian.
Jul 6, 2009 - 6:33 pm 23. 1MoreCarol:Neda was wearing a cross around her neck when she was shot. Was she singled out? Very likely. Do we have the same courage as Neda had? Anyone in the USofA can wear a cross. In Persia/Iran, it’s against the law.
But it’s not against US Law to demand that the sitting president produce his long form birth certificate, his 1981 Passport, his college transcripts, his college thesis, and his college diplomas. By his own admission, he is not a Natural Born Citizen because he claims that his father is Barack Obama, Sr, a British subject at the time of the sitting president’s birth. But even more important is the 1981 Passport. The sitting president was of age and if he used his adoption birth certificate to obtain a Passport to go to Indonesia and Pakistan, he was declaring his citizenship to Indonesia. He never became a Naturalized US Citizen while he was attending college (probably as a foreign student). And if he’s not even a US Citizen, he’s an Illegal Alien and should be DEPORTED immediately.
But what Republican in Congress, what group of Republicans, are willing to stand as a group and DEMAND paperwork from the sitting president? Who in Congress is willing to risk it all for the TRUTH? Where are the Patriots in Congress?
Jul 6, 2009 - 6:38 pm 24. David W. Lincoln:I admit it is the Samson option, but those companies based outside of Iran, which do business in Iran, they have to have stiff financial penalties levied against them. If they balk, then those who do business with them.
If the second group balks, then those who do business with them.
After all, the oppressors do not pay as close attention as we do to the adjective before the
Jul 6, 2009 - 7:11 pm 25. Meryl:word, “power”, and they must not be allowed to
get away with it.
maybe obama will start wearing MJ’s glove.
May as well. It sure won’t detract from his dignity.
Jul 6, 2009 - 8:10 pm 26. Dero:Thought you flaked out for a second on Iran. Keep the posts coming, it’s not like it’s easy to get info on this or varied perspectives. Nico Pitney is still practically the only guy talking about this day in and day out.
Jul 6, 2009 - 9:34 pm 27. ali mostofi:Iranians are learning to get back their country and threatening to shut it down peacefully. The marches are detailed in Persian here http://bit.ly/Hmvql
Jul 7, 2009 - 2:15 am 28. ali mostofi:Sorry that url again is http://bit.ly/HmVQl.
Jul 7, 2009 - 2:22 am 29. Delia:Romancing the Stone-ers.
Let’s face it, until these people stop with ’stoning’ people and other ‘primitive’ horrors, there is no ‘justice’ for women /or men in ISLAM.
Death to ISLAM.
ISLAM is not a RELIGIONS! PLEASE.
Jul 7, 2009 - 2:49 am 30. Delia:P.S. English is my first and second language.
KWERTY tarded.
Jul 7, 2009 - 2:51 am 31. Delia:For those of you who didn’t get my ‘joke’…
Qwerty
Nuff said?
Jul 7, 2009 - 2:52 am 32. Delia:Islam creates ‘victims’ and ‘believers’.
Which category do you stand in when you have the choice of a beheading, stoning, or taking whatever ‘they’ give you with bowed head?
Is that freedom?
IS IT?
NO. I don’t sphinct so, homey!
Jul 7, 2009 - 2:55 am 33. Delia:Infidel much? A muchhhhhhhhhh too much!
*shakes bootay*
Jul 7, 2009 - 2:56 am 34. Jack’s Newswatch » Blog Archive » Ledeen: The Storm Ahead:[...] [More] Web Logs You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site. [...]
Jul 7, 2009 - 3:49 am 35. sefton:Grow up,Delia.
Jul 7, 2009 - 7:59 am 36. Greg Toombs:The adults are talking here.
One problem with Islam, Delia, is that, sooner or later, everyone is an infidel.
Jul 7, 2009 - 9:09 am 37. susieQ:“what’s an Iran”…I love that.
We’re uneducated and uninformed. Someone said we’re more interested in the “mall” than what our “military” and government are up to. Right on.
I’m waiting for Obama’s “youth corp” in the brown shirts to appear on our streets, or will they be white shirts with little bow ties???
Watch out Israel, we are no longer your friend it seems.
Jul 7, 2009 - 9:41 am 38. Aryajet:Majority of Iranians don’t fall for tyrannic regime propaganda try to portray Israel as combatant enemy and actually many of them believe Israel is a great counterbalance for stability of Iran. Most believe when Israel’s arch enemies get done with destroying Jewish state they all will start looking east toward Iran.
Jul 7, 2009 - 10:47 am 39. Delia:But at this ultra sensitive moment in which Iranians have decided to irradiate this barbaric and oligarchic regime once for all, one wrong movement from Israel such as resorting to military show down will NO DOUBT kill the movement entire movement, it will prove the regime was correct along about its stance against Israel. And will buy another 50 years for the regime which will terrorize the entire opposition group.
Beside publicly expressing concerns about civilian casualties and the way regime treats its own people, US and Israel should refrain from supporting any specific group or even threatening the tyrannic itself. JMHO
35. sefton:
“Grow up,Delia.
The adults are talking here.”
Really? -And, you added soooooooooooo freaking much to the ‘topic’ other than calling me ‘childish’? How ‘mature’ of you. *cough-cough*
While people are genuinely terrified of the ‘regime’ they are ‘living under’, you might want to ‘reflect’ on that, knuckle dragger extraordinaire. Or, should I just be crude and call you, “il tamponini”?
Jul 7, 2009 - 10:55 am 40. Delia:36. Greg Toombs:
“One problem with Islam, Delia, is that, sooner or later, everyone is an infidel.”
-And, the truth shall set you freeeeeeeeeee!
Exactly! People who live ‘under’ Islamic ‘RULE’ are ‘VICTIMS’ of said ‘RULERSHIP’.
When a woman can be stoned to death, or her head slowly ’sawed’ off with a ‘dull’ knife because she disregarded ‘ISLAM’…well, there is something really F_CKING wrong with that!
Jul 7, 2009 - 11:00 am 41. Saghar Kasraie:December 5, 1955 Montgomery, Alabama
Jul 7, 2009 - 12:52 pm 42. Aussie:Dear Mr. Obama,
Martin Luther King, the man who paved the way of “freedom” for the black man finished his first address with these words…”when the history books are written in the future, somebody will have to say, “there lived a race of people, fleecy locks and black complexion, a people that had the MORAL COURAGE to stand up for their rights. And thereby injected a new meaning into the veins of history and civilization. And we’re going to do that. God grant that we will do it before it is too late”……..
Michael please keep up the good work in reporting the latest from Iran. This is a critical time for the people and they need us to get out to the general population what is happening to them. In the meantime it seems that the lamestream media is preoccupied with the death of Whacko Jacko…. grrrr…. I am so sick of the coverage about his death.
Jul 11, 2009 - 9:58 am 43. Tyt Tyt:I suggest the Iranian people to leave Islam, and change to another religion, that would be a silent revolution without violence!
Religion is only something one believe.
Aug 27, 2009 - 6:47 am