The show trials now on display in Tehran have several purposes. First, to purge the regime’s ranks of those who have shown tolerance or enthusiasm for the dissidents who are now calling for “death to the dictator.” Second, to intimidate anyone contemplating action against the regime. Third, to gauge the attitude and resolve of the West, in order to calculate just how far the regime can go without a potentially damaging reaction.
That is why Saturday’s procession of “spies and traitors” included French and British citizens or employees. The reaction must have been encouraging to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, his son, and his band of loyalists: thus far, the Brits and the French have limited themselves to diplomatic tongue clicking, with nary a whisper of serious sanctions, and no sign of active support for the millions of Iranians who pray, and fight, for freedom.
As the distinguished scholar and analyst Afshin Ellian tells us nearby, the regime has already prepared arrest warrants for the leaders of the national uprising, and an elite unit of the Revolutionary Guards has been charged with carrying out the arrests. Such a move is fraught with peril for the regime. The arrest of the dissident leader, Mir Hossein Mousavi, would surely throw the country into convulsion, and, if it lasted long enough, might convince some Western leaders to finally defend its own ideals, and thus the Iranian people.
There is no doubt, as Professor Ellian stresses, that Khamenei’s people desperately want to crush the opposition. Those nightly chants and daily protests take a toll on the oppressors, and, as we have seen, even organizations such as the Revolutionary Guards will refuse to attack unarmed civilians, and occasionally intervene to protect demonstrators from the assaults of the Basij thugs. There has been an erosion of faith in the regime in many quarters, and we can see signs of a violent internal struggle. Two RG planes have gone down in recent weeks, and scores of officers, along with their counterparts from the Lebanese Hizbollah, have been killed. In addition, there have been several near-misses, pointing to sabotage of aircraft. By whom? I don’t know, but they certainly needed–and obtained– some help from the security and maintenance people working for the Guards.
The show trials themselves document internal conflict. If it were not so, the regime would hardly need to purge high-ranking intelligence officials, and the clear implication of the trials is that more victims are in the queue.
Like every regime that lacks popular consensus, the leaders of the Islamic Republic blame their troubles primarily on foreigners. It is the predictable response of those who know that their policies, and perhaps even their legitimacy, would not be sustained by an appeal to the “electorate.” Thus, for example, the Chinese tyrants blame the Uighur uprisings on the machinations of an emigre grandmother, Rebiya Kadeer, who lives in Washington, rather than on the rage of an oppressed people. The mullahs must silence their opponents, but time is not on their side. As with Gorbachev, the mullahs are showing a talent for being cruel enough to inspire anger, but not enough to dominate their critics.
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43 Comments
1. David W. Lincoln:Michael, we might have to escalate the situation. As seen in World Threats on July 23,
as shown here: http://www.worldthreats.com/?p=1469 , initial steps were taken.
That might not be enough. Those businesses which do business with Iranian based energy businesses would have to face the same scrutiny.
Aug 9, 2009 - 8:40 pm 2. Alexis:Namely, why strengthen those who oppress unarmed
protesters?
It is rather odd that the Iranian government would seek to pin blame for its lack of legitimacy upon Rebiya Kadeer. Success as a merchant and as an entrepreneur is generally admired in Islam; being a Uighur dissident against Chinese rule doesn’t hurt her either. If a pious Muslim hates a woman for being successful as a merchant and as an entrepreneur while running afoul of a non-Muslim government that oppresses Muslims and doesn’t like what her husband is saying, how could he not also hate Khadijah?
But the Islamic Republic has died in the past two months. It is time for the West to bury it.
I disagree. The West must do what it can to help those Iranians who fight for freedom. The West must do more than what the Obama administration is likely to do. However, it is time for the Iranian people to bury it. The honor of burying their tyranny must belong to them. Ours must be a supporting role, one where we don’t upstage the Iranian people.
Aug 9, 2009 - 10:02 pm 3. The Islamic Republic has died in the past two months. It is time for the West to bury it. « FREE IRAN NOW!:[...] for the West to bury it. 10. August 2009 — Mr. Moe Michael Ledeen über die Frage, was der Westen tun sollte: Given thirty years of steadfast fecklessness, reinforced by the relative silence of the Europeans [...]
Aug 9, 2009 - 10:55 pm 4. Pajamas Media » The Death of the Islamic Republic:[...] Read the entire piece here. [...]
Aug 9, 2009 - 11:54 pm 5. Marie Claude:“the Brits and the French have limited themselves to diplomatic tongue clicking, with nary a whisper of serious sanctions, and no sign of active support for the millions of Iranians who pray, and fight, for freedom.”
Really ?
Sarko was the first to condamn the fraud, to condamn the repression on the manifestants !
d’ya think the iranian regime would have taken the innocent french citizens in such a trial mascarade if France wasn’t that harsh voice against the regime ?
Besides, you never mentionned Clotilde Reiss in your complaints before, she deserves as much attention as the former iranian-US journalist, who had much more to be repproached in her pocket.
Aug 10, 2009 - 12:15 am 6. Marie Claude:There is no real threat on Musavi, it’s all mascarade
he is a murderer like the others
funny, all my informed iranian sources in France and in the US want that the regime collapse, and certainly they are not betting on Musavi for that.
Aug 10, 2009 - 12:24 am 7. Marie Claude:“The Iranian political map consists of three major factions. To the “left” there are the moderate conservatives who were represented in the election by Mousavi. In the “centre”, there are the conventional conservatives led by certain figures from the clerical hierarchy as well as prominent businessmen. Finally, there is the “radical right” as embodied in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Council (IRGC), to which Ahmadinejad belongs. Above all these three factions, sits the supreme leader, manipulating the strings that control the equilibrium between them.
With the tacit support of the Islamic Republic, a number of organizations have been cultivated to expound the Islamic regime’s policy abroad. These pro-Islamic regime lobby organizations such as CAIR, CASMII, AIC, NIAC, IAPAC, CFR and PAAIA are attempting to manipulate, influence and pressure, both the U.S policy makers as well as the European Union’s, in favor of the Islamic Republic. In reality, these groups main objective has been to prolong diplomacy long enough until the IRI is beyond the point of return with its nuclear program.
Realizing the doomsday of the hardliners getting closer with each passing day, the lobbyists have changed course and have started supporting Mousavi, yet playing the devil’s advocate. With slogans such as “the Unites States should negotiate with Iran,” or “Mullahs are pragmatic bunch when it comes to foreign policy,” they were successful at convincing the Clinton administration, to some degree the Bush administration, but to a much greater extent, the Obama administration that they should consider negotiating with the mullahs without any pre-conditions regarding the nuclear and other issues.
Lobbyists directly were behind the President Obama “Nowruz” message to the Islamic Republic and thereafter, his famous Cairo’s message to the Muslim world. This was seen as legitimizing the Islamic Republic by many Iranians. With incessant overtures from Obama to appease the mullahs and invite them to the negotiation table, Iranians became very frustrated and angry. Whether they supported Mousavi or Ahmadinejad, Obama was willing to talk to either camp. They were hoping Obama to make human rights a priority, while Obama focused on the nuclear issue. The Islamic Republic leads all other nations on human rights violations except for China.
Even though the Islamic Republic, as a member of the United Nations, gives pretence of democratic processes and adherence to human rights principles, the harsh reality is that the Islamic Republic has never had the intention of being a democracy. There is no room for Public in the Islamic Republic. A closer read of the Constitution of the Islamic Republic reveals that all real power lies with the Supreme Leader and safeguards a pure Muhammadan Shi’a Islamic principle.
Iranian presidents do not have a say in major decisions within the power structure which favors a Caliphate style government (a form of government inspired by interpretations of the religion of Islam). But having a president gives a pretense of a democratic system for outside consumption and propaganda.
In order for the regime to cloak the iniquitous tilt towards the theocratic supremacy over the people, mullahs have resorted to all sorts of contrived tactics to justify their actions. The Islamic Republic pretends that people actually have a voice in Iran’s affairs. It holds sham elections. But even though, it is called elections, the constitution’s hegemony is present. The supreme leader approves peoples’ elected choice and can dismiss the president at anytime he deems it necessary.
Iran is not a monolithic society. It is a country of various religious and ethnic minorities. However, only candidates from the Shi’a sect are eligible to become president. Even though women attempt to participate, it is abundantly clear they are not invited. Only candidates with proven track record of murder, arrests, rapes and torture and with allegiance to the revolution are allowed to run. Yet, out of this select group of criminals, only a few head-picked criminals like Karoobi, Mousavi, Rezaei and Ahmadinejad were authorized to run this year. The Iranian people, in reality, were given an option to choose the best of the worst to run the affairs of their country. Obviously, people have eschewed such rigged elections and inevitably the government has resorted to various tricks to lure them back in.”…
http : //www .iranian .com/main/blog/arash-irandoost/no-room-public-islamic-republic
Aug 10, 2009 - 12:33 am 8. no fear Obama:6. Marie Claude:
I agree:
I hope Mousavi is arrested and hung.
He is the criminal responsible for the suicide truck bombing and killing our 244 US Marines in Beirut.
If he helps bring down the Iranian thugs before they drag his naked body through the streets-
so much better.
Some other concerned leader will take his place.
Semper Fi.
Aug 10, 2009 - 1:58 am 9. Arlen:Dear Michael,
I don’t know how to put this in nice terms, but the Iranian people, don’t need a neoCON like yourself, to map out what needs to be done for them! I enjoyed reading your piece, until I got to the last 2-3 paragraphs, in which your neoCon-ism came into the picture, and made me want to vomit on my monitor!
THE ONLY WAY UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT SHOULD GET INVOLVED, WOULD BE TO GUIDE A COUPLE OF COMMERCIAL PLANES INTO THE BUILDINGS OF THE BASIJI HQ, MINISTRY OF INTELLIGENCE, IRIB, AND RGC HQ, JUST LIKE YOUR BUDDIES DID IT ON 9/11. IF YOU CAN PULL 9/11 OFF INSIDE US, YOU CAN DO IT IN IRAN AS WELL. WITH ALL THE AVIATION PROBLEMS THEY’VE BEEN HAVING LATELY, NO ONE WILL EVEN COME CLOSE TO THINKING THAT WE HAD ANYTHING TO DO WITH IT. ANY OTHER WAY OF INVOLVEMENT, WOULD RESULT IN A MARSHAL LAW ON IRANIAN STREETS, AND WE’LL SEE TANKS PATROLLING THE STREETS OF MAJOR CITIES!
Since neoCons from PNAC who think like you do, were able to pull off the 9/11 job within our borders, I’m pretty sure you can rely on the same people to bring down the mentioned buildings in Iran. Then you can just blame it on Saudi Sunni Terrorists who don’t like the Iranian Shiite government.
When are people like you going to stop worrying about what’s happening in other countries? USA isn’t the world police. Especially when we have many more important issues to tackle inside our borders! Why do we need so many military bases around the world, when one sixth of the people of OUR country don’t have proper health coverage, and our economy has gone to shit because of the 8 years of your buddies raping OUR country? When are people like you going to understand, that this is not some kind of a game? When are people like you going to understand, that it’s not ok to do ANYTHING, to accomplish ANYTHING? It’s a shame that you consider yourself an American. It’s a shame that you still have the same freedoms and rights as other Americans do; even though you’re one of the many dirty sons of bitches who taint the name of other Americans by the bullshit you think, and type! SHAME ON YOU!
FIND A DIFFERENT COUNTRY TO WORRY AND WRITE ABOUT! IRANIANS AREN’T LIKE IRAQIS! PERSIANS, AREN’T ARABS! YOU F*CK WITH PERSIANS, YOU GET WHAT YOU’VE WISHED FOR! AS A U.S. CITIZEN THAT HATES ANY RELIGION (BECAUSE RELIGION IS THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IN THE WORLD) I TELL YOU THIS: WE DON’T NEED TO SEE ANY MORE AMERICAN SOLDIERS KILLED, OR WOUNDED, NOR DO WE NEED TO SEE OUR COUNTRY GET TIED UP IN ANOTHER WAR. IRAN ISN’T A DESERT, YOU CAN’T MARCH IN AND TAKE OVER! AGAIN IT’S A PITTY THAT PEOPLE LIKE YOU DON’T END UP IN JAIL! IRAN-CONTRA DIDN’T RESULT IN YOUR IMPRISONMENT, BUT I THINK IT SHOULD HAVE! IT WOULD HAVE SAVED ME AN HOUR OF MY TIME!
Aug 10, 2009 - 2:12 am 10. winston:I was talking to a friend in Tehran a few minutes ago. She said there’s a horrible police state in place in the city. There are police and Basijis in every street or alley and people find it hard to assemble. But the nightly protests are popular with the people and anti-regime chantings can be heard from every corner of the city.
Aug 10, 2009 - 2:50 am 11. lefroy:“The arrest of the dissident leader, Mir Hossein Mousavi . . . if it lasted long enough, might convince some Western leaders to finally defend its own ideals, and thus the Iranian people.”
Not a chance. Not even a slight chance. The west will do nothing at all – except click their tongues.
The west hasn’t got the nerve or the will to blow a few ragtag somali pirates out of the water, muttering about about international law, allowing a bunch of cut-throats with small arms to roam the shipping lanes, and paying them vast ransoms when they seize merchant ships.
As Tacitus pointed out 200 years ago (in the Agricola), the sapping and paralysis of the will breeds a terrible and self-sustaining intertia. Our countries and our leaders are hopelessly caught up in it.
The piracy wheeze off the coast of the Horn of Africa – a handful of amateur thugs in fishing boats taking merchant vessels at will while the west is too paralysed and exhausted to do anything about it – says something quite profound about the looming death of western power.
You think we will “defend its ideals”? When we are hypnotised by a bunch of pirates? Sorry Michael . . dream on.
Aug 10, 2009 - 3:15 am 12. TennesseeVolunteer:Why would we do anything for the brave people of Iran. We won’t even defend ourselves from their manufacture of IED’s and suicide bombers?
Aug 10, 2009 - 3:40 am 13. Adina Kutnicki,Israel:Washington under Obama will do zero to assist the dissidents. Obama could barely muster a dissent against the selection of their ‘duly elected leader’ and the plight of the reformists.
In any case, the sabotages are most likely the hallmark of the Mossad, with the assistance of those they have co-opted to cooperate in said activities.
Think about it. With the encircling menace of the Iranian Hitler’s WMD project there is NO other nation more threatened than Israel. While the Sunni Arab dictators are also afraid, they are not in the same position as Israel.
Over the last few years several planeloads of Revolutionary Guard forces have ‘mysteriously’ exploded, among them important nuclear scientists. It is very likely that the ground is being deliberately prepared for a pre-cleansing of those most likely to be called upon to restart the program after a strike from Israel.
Nothing is coincidence in the cesspool of the Middle East. These ‘accidents’ are a warning sign to the mullahs. Surely they know what’s up, but put on bellicose faces nonetheless.
Aug 10, 2009 - 4:53 am 14. Lynn:I think the pesky Americans are partially to blame for this unruly mob in Iran. If only we would have stayed on the fringes of the Islamic World when responding to the attacks of September llth. The enemy surely hoped we would confine our fight to Afghanistan (the Righteous War), and were enraged as were many others, that our elected leaders chose Iraq instead.
Boots on the ground in the middle of the Middle East, a mistake that the new president seems intent on correcting. The loud voices from Iran have become fainter, not because they aren’t speaking, but because they might be a sign that freedom does indeed ring in people’s minds, yes even in the Middle East.
Maybe there are parents who don’t like raising their children to be suicide killers. Maybe there are parents who don’t like teaching their children hate for people they don’t even know, or just because some tyrant tells them to hate. Some could even not agree that people of other faiths are dhimmis who deserve lesser status than they. They could possibly believe in equality!
Maybe there are young people who want to walk down the street and not be stopped by the ‘moral’ police because a strand of hair came loose from a scarf on a breezy day. Maybe young men are seeing young women being pushed onto buses, or pulled aside by police, and they are angry because they can’t come to the aid of these young girls.
Could there be people living there who are angry because they can’t even be free to choose what religion they belong to, or what clothes they wear, or what books they read, or even who they choose to like or dislike, because the tyrants have already decided for them? Does that mean there are those living there who chafe under these restrictions. Could they be like us, some of them wanting to declare their independence and right to have a say in their destiny. The answer must be yes, and contrary to what we are told by those who want us to believe they are somehow different and like living under oppression and suppression.
I think that might be what this president doesn’t see or hear or want to see or hear. Our former president saw and heard it, but was scoffed at and ridiculed.
There are times when I believe those on the left would sacrifice other’s freedom, the very thing they claim to be at the heart of their very being, so that their predictions of failure for the United States, can come to fruition.
Aug 10, 2009 - 7:27 am 15. David W. Lincoln:Lynn, the version of man’s inhumanity to man dished out by the “Sons of Allah” does not
Aug 10, 2009 - 8:06 am 16. tanstaafl:respect national borders. Keep that in mind, while selective vision is employed when people read Fouad Ajami’s accounts of Iraq, whether it was before Hussein’s eviction, or afterwards.
I find it abhorrent, the trials going on in Iran, the masses of protesters of all kinds (foreigners, journalists, students, the man in the street, even some clerics…) sitting in rows in courtrooms, looking sullen and, even, beaten.
It all has a very ugly feel.
If you saw Jim Jones, Obama National Security advisor, on with Chris Wallace yesterday, Jones made noises that the Obama administration would still deal with Iran’s current virulent & illegitimate leadership.
Jones cast such kind of thinking in some notion of pragmatism.
Shameful.
Aug 10, 2009 - 8:47 am 17. tanstaafl:There are times when I believe those on the left would sacrifice other’s freedom, the very thing they claim to be at the heart of their very being, so that their predictions of failure for the United States, can come to fruition.
Only times ?
Seems like the cardinal rule of thumb to me.
Aug 10, 2009 - 9:02 am 18. Lynn:#14. tanstaafl:
I agree, but was trying to be kind and not paint with a broad brush.
and David W. Lincoln
Aug 10, 2009 - 9:11 am 19. David W. Lincoln:I am not sure what you mean, please elaborate.
Lynn, what I am saying is that those who are frankly pessimistic about taking on those Muslims with blood on their hands, I accuse them of applying selective vision when they read articles in the same vein as what Fouad Ajami wrote about Iraq.
For, they do not want to see that they have to
commit more of themselves to the victory of our side over those who call themselves Muslim, and they have blood on their hands.
Clearer than mud now?
Aug 10, 2009 - 9:42 am 20. Avitar:The CIA overthrew these bums when they came to power after WWII with the sum of $60,000 today in our much corrupted dollars that would be about three million dollars. The Shah followed by his son stayed in power until Jimmy Carter helped to overthrow him. We ought to task the DNC with overthrowing the Islamofascists since they are responsible. Still since they are not not competent.
Aug 10, 2009 - 10:07 am 21. Lynn:Funding the CIA at the rate of the cost of one fighter jet a year would probably do the job.
David W. Lincoln
I just read an opinion by Mr. Fouad Ajami writing that President Obama has returned to ‘business as usual’ as regards to the Middle East.
That sounds like an accurate analysis to me.
I don’t know if Mr. Ajami’s opinion has changed, but my understanding is that he thinks a ‘Palestinian State’ will help stabilize that area. I do not agree with that, but think that it will leave Israel occupying an even tinier spit of land and more vulnerable to attacks by those who wish to wipe it from our memory and from our maps.
The question is why would this administration want to go back to business as usual with the Middle East? With the history of attacks against the United States and our allies by the Isalmists, why would this leadership even consider going back to the old ways of appeasement and exaggerated overtures of diplomacy with tyrants.
I find it quite troublesome.
Aug 10, 2009 - 11:56 am 22. jodetoad:I wish the US would do something to support the Iranian dissidents. However, considering how fickle and inept this administration is, the rebels are probably better off on their own. Look at Israel – Israelis are certainly not able to count on us now, are they? Except for arrogant meddling. Under Obama, the word alliance doesn’t have much meaning any more.
Aug 10, 2009 - 12:36 pm 23. » Daily Links - 08/10/09 NoisyRoom.net: Where liberty dwells, there is my country…:[...] The Death of the Islamic Republic [...]
Aug 10, 2009 - 12:48 pm 24. David W. Lincoln:Lynn, take a look at the earlier writings of Fouad Ajami. Now, we can only know after the fact as to their impact, but I am willing to say that those who want a return to the status quo (namely what is being down) as compared to the tepid gambit that the Bush 43 Administration employed; they would have edited out those portions of Mr. Ajami’s writings that they did not like.
To put it bluntly, they were not being intellectually honest.
So, with the oh so wrong crowd having their hands on the levers of power, they are creating a vacuum at the top of who is going
to take on those called, “The Sons of Allah”.
Yes, it is troublesome, but as my previous postings attest, the amount of confidence I have in Washington DC is about the same as expecting the sun to rise in the North tomorrow.
What we have in Washington DC is worse than the dithering of Anthony Eden in the Suez Crisis. Those in Washington are convinced they are right, and they are totally deaf, dumb and blind to anyone who communicates different conclusions.
Thanks to the arrogance of those in power in Washington, DC, the world will be going through more struggle than what ought to be the case, indeed what could be the case.
Aug 10, 2009 - 12:51 pm 25. Ayatollah Ghilmeini:With all due respect to Mr. Ledeen, he is not following his conclusions to where they necessarily go:
This putsch must end in war. There is no instance in history of a regime functioning at this level of tyranny not going to war with their neighbors. Its Totalitarianism 101. Recent news from Lebanon indicate that Hezbollah has already been ordered to start a war to take the worlds’ eyes off Tehran.
This regime is burning the boats at the water. There is no way forward but the way of the sword. They are desperate and cutting loose any not totally in line with their program. If the regime survives in the near term, it will take a future Khrushchev after the Stalin Ahmadinjead before Iran ever gets to their Gorbachev.
Only a credulous fool like Juan Cole can find any benign hope in the current situation. There is no peaceful situation here. War will come and the only question is how many die before these monsters go down.
Aug 10, 2009 - 12:53 pm 26. Jassem Othman:Obviously the West do NOTHING for people who risk in their life for their freedom “except” a rhetoric full of honeyed words and smooth and policy of appeasement and subservience.
The current administration is the admin of appeasement and the humiliating concessions, while Mr President Bush’s admin wasn’t absolves the evil regimes of evil intent.
Yes Dr Ledeen, for a long time you say: “that regimes in the Middle East are hated by its people!” But, unfortunately none are so deaf as those who will not hear. and of course that Islamic Republic has died in the past two months and the time has come to bring down all the tyrannical regimes in the region.
Jassem Othman, Syrian, Extremely loyal and faithful for the Benevolent Empire (USA).
Aug 10, 2009 - 4:16 pm 27. John Blake:By mid-2010, Depression-level unemployment allied to hyper-inflation plus a government-engineered energy crisis driving fuel to $10/gal. and doubling or tripling home-heating costs while taxing literally the air we breathe, may well require demonizing a suitable foreign foe.
Given manifest White House, um, proclivities, neither Putin’s re-Sovietized Russia nor China’s senescent Marxian Mandarinate will fill the bill. Surely no Muslim State –Iran, Libya, Saudi Arabia et al.– deserves opprobrium… and that leaves (you guessed it) Israel. Bent on global conquest, jack-booted IDF minions hymning praise to JHWH, exponents of World Rabbinate are on the march! Onward to Zion, then to Sheepshead Bay– we know their kind. For the good of humanity, we must face them NOW.
Hoo-boy! Shoulder-to-shoulder with Castro, Chavez, Mugabe, Kim Jong-il, perhaps a Burmese generalissimo or two (or three) let us sally forth against Knights of the Flaming Yamulka, our would-be Torah-ista overlords. Bung Toro pledges Victory: All hail The Bung!
Faugh.
Aug 10, 2009 - 7:17 pm 28. Goozid Beh Aab:Marie Claude- I agree with you
But it seems like the yukky Hamas Green Mousavi Coup that was designed by non eother than Mr. Michael Ledeen (yes indeed) and his obedient lap dog operative Mohammad Khatami in Iran has failed.
Even your instructions to Khatami to throw an idiotic refrendum fell on deaf ears Mr. Ledeen– It’s time for you and your “burnt out” operatives in Iran like the murderer Khatami and his clan to throw in the towel.
Hopefully, we will soon see your boy’s Khatami’s head on a platter after he and Karrubi, Mousavi and hopefully Akbar Bahremani(aka Rafsanjani) will be tried.
That’s not to say that Khamenei and nejad are not as Muslim-Fascist as the rest of Ledeen’s favorite ‘reformist’ clan goons are, But:
Ledeen, you are no friend of Democracy, let alone for Iranian people!
Give it up already– The yukky Hamas green coup you designed was stupid.
And it has failed .
Aug 10, 2009 - 7:50 pm 29. Goozid Beh Aab:در حکومت اسلامی است که محمد خاتمی از «مایکللدین»، طراح کودتا در ایران مستقیماً دستور میگیرد و در کمال وقاحت میگوید، اگر میخواهید ما نتیجة انتخابات را بپذیریم باید یک رفراندوم برپا کنید تا مردم بگویند انتخابات را قبول دارند یا نه؟ اگر مردم پذیرفتند، ما هم میپذیریم؟
چرا حضرت مایکل لدین چنین پیشنهادی میدهد؟ چون اگر رفراندوم کذا برگذار شود، هیچکس این مضحکه را تحریم نخواهد کرد. واکنش مردم ایران، متأسفانه قابل پیشبینی است. همة مخالفان حکومت نکبت و ادبار صحرای کربلا «از لج خامنهای» و «از لج احمدینژاد» با دارودستة اکبر بهرمانی همصدا خواهند شد. و باز هم وزارت کشور میتواند نتایج مخدوش اعلام کند و باز هم محفل کودتا فریاد تقلب به آسمان خواهد برد و تظاهرات گستردهتری را سازمان خواهد داد تا بتواند تعداد شهدا و زندانیان را افزایش دهد. به این ترتیب وارد دور جهنمی «آشوب، سرکوب، براندازی» خواهیم شد و خداوند و سازمان ناتو از ما راضی و خرسند خواهند بود
Aug 10, 2009 - 7:55 pm 30. MusaBM:Manuel Zelaya of Honduras is a confirmed thug who has Obama’s political support.
Perhaps Obama could have Zelaya run Iran? Weirder things have happened (especially in Iran).
Aug 10, 2009 - 10:57 pm 31. Michael Ledeen:life is full of surprises, excellency. you never know. i remember spain at the time of franco’s death. nobody thought you could get from dictatorship to democracy without war. but then…it happened.
Aug 11, 2009 - 6:54 am 32. Alireza:“I have long argued that the Iranian people hate this regime”. Dr. Ledeen, when there was NO mention of elections or anything like today, and people like U2 come along for supporting Iranians, long before you were PERSISTENTLY kept writing and writing what is really happening to Iranians in Iran. I appreciate that.
As far as the $18 billion in Turkey, I do not believe ANY Iranian would be that rich to have so much in cash via Turkey. No. This money was for sure planned to go to Lebanon for Hezbollah and other recipients there.
At times I have a feeling maybe Europe truly don’t mind Iran to stay in this path, as it is crushing its people. If they really mean it, they would suck it up for the economical loss they will have and they go for TOTAL COMPLETE FREEZE of commerce and everything else that allows this regime to move an inch. Can Sarkozy do that? Germany? UK?
I strongly believe bringing U.S. DIRECT presidential power to support Iranian opposition is an absolute death for Iranian opposition. So I think Obama and Clinton are handling the situation almost right. But I think behind the scene, they must physically and verbally pull and squeeze all the balls with Europe’s leaders, so those profit hungry nations STOP and FREEZE their dealings with Iran. This means NO more flights to Iran. NONE. ZERO! Means NO VISA to anyone, unless in special cases, and many other dealings that needs to STOP.
Dr. Ledeen, this is not too complicated. This does not require too much analysis that with cutting off Iran from its European sources, and THEN adding fuel import, things will starts to change. No matter how passionate Sarkozy talk, as long as commerce continues this show will keep going.
Aug 11, 2009 - 10:42 am 33. Marie Claude:“I have a feeling maybe Europe truly don’t mind Iran to stay in this path, as it is crushing its people. If they really mean it, they would suck it up for the economical loss they will have and they go for TOTAL COMPLETE FREEZE of commerce and everything else that allows this regime to move an inch”
You ignore the banks blind offices, that London City, Wallstreet… and Dubai are very convenient for such obscur exchanges
Lloyds’ Practices
Aug 11, 2009 - 6:27 pm 34. Jassem Othman:As described in the Factual Statement at Exhibit A to the DPA with the DOJ, Lloyds operated U.S.
dollar correspondent accounts for the London branches of six Iranian banks (Bank Sepah, Bank Melli,
Bank Tejeret, Bank Mellat, Bank Saderat and the Iranian Overseas Investment Bank).4 In addition,
Lloyds’ branches in Tokyo and Dubai held U.S. dollar correspondent accounts for certain Iranian banks.
Lloyds provided U.S. dollar clearance services for these banks via relationships that it maintained with
correspondent banks located in the United States but which were unaffiliated with Lloyds
Yes, Dr Ledeen, the wars always kept peace. The war it is the right good option to get rid of the evil dictators!
Aug 11, 2009 - 6:35 pm 35. Ira Zad:Sarkozy is saying ouch for 2 reasons:
1) EU/US idiotically conducted “Green Coup” has failed.
and;
2) French oil giant “Totale” has lost its control of the southern Pars oil field in southwestern Iran to the–get this: Chinese national oil compnay, CNPC.
(yep, Ahmadinejad creaming Rafsanjani clan who were the traditional beneficiaries of the French oil oligarchy so far–)
So, that’s why the Cries of “Merde” coming out of “Shorty” in France, and EU in general — nothing to do with anything else–
Aug 11, 2009 - 6:51 pm 36. Marie Claude:Otherwise, Sarkozy or Merkel, or Brown do not give a damn about, or are not concerned in the least with secular democracy for Iranian people!
Hell with Iranian people! LOL
(sorry google translation, if you have a better one that can do it)
Last Saturday, when the Clotilde Reiss trial began, Alaeddine Boroujerdi, head of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Islamic Parliament, welcomed the detention and trial of a young Frenchwoman who should he be the trial of the interference of foreign powers in Iran. The objective was clear: do the trial of the french State. In a hostage taker who keeps the dark about the fate of his victim (death or liberation), the Islamic Revolutionary Court had deliberately omitted to state the charges and penalties required to the pressure at the french state.
The objective was to obtain a relaxation of the French position vis-à-vis the regime on the nuclear issue. Currently, to block the negotiations, the regime wants to simulate a crisis around the political scenario in the absence of the legitimacy of the elected president, an illegitimacy that removes any value to future negotiations.
This scenario can only work if you believe: that was never the case of France. It had initially ignored Moussavi, the leader of this protest, before giving a legal framework for this choice by saying that France recognized only states and not governments. Which meant that challenge or not, Iran would have to respond in a timely manner to requests addressed to it by the international community.
Clotilde Reiss was arrested when France made the act of ignoring Moussavi, went on trial for serious reasons, just after France had legalized his refusal to leave board in the scenario of contesting the legitimacy feint of ‘Six interlocutor in the nuclear dossier.
Although aware of the stakes of this content without judicial trial, France has not satisfied the mullahs, it is not immediately changed his speech on the scenario of contesting the legitimacy of Ahmadinejad. This refusal has put Tehran in a major embarrassment because it sees this challenge the only way to block the negotiations and must obtain international support before the next meeting of the Six on 15 September 2009 on the sidelines of the 64th General Assembly the United Nations. Now Tehran is just a month to realize its scenario. For urgent international support to challenge his scripted, he had the crazy idea to mention the rape of prisoners of movement to act on the nerves: get humanitarian support to protesters persecuted as an alternative to a political recognition of their action.
Although the latter initiative was independent of the case of Clotilde and that the rape had been located in a prison now closed, these overmediatised revelations by senior officials of the regime have also increased tension around the pretty young French left to its even in Iranian jails as an easy target for such abuse. It is hard to imagine the French remain on good terms with such a regime. This has reduced the scheme yesterday suggested that “a parole for young Frenchwoman by the end of his trial on condition that it lies at the French embassy in Tehran”: it needs a hostage to put pressure on France and not a new symbol of female repression as was Neda. This is a reversal of situation that gives the advantage to France.
Explanations of benefit french | When the revelations of rape have been published by the regime, it became impossible for France to continue its policy of patience about this detention does not give guarantees to mullahs, each day more in prison was a day of more concern to the French, anxiety mean a decline in presidential popularity in opinion polls. France had then dropped the land on its position by expressing his “deep concern about the brutal measures of repression against a large part of the Iranian people peacefully challenging the sincerity and the results of presidential elections on 12 June.
After the embarrassed gesture to Tehran, it adopted the silence to put pressure on the mullahs. It hopes to grow in their corner for a simple release of the young Frenchwoman who will blow this theater at its touching beauty, its dignified expression during the trial, the accuracy of the maneuvers and especially French recklessness a system made in the throat which improvised and therefore increases the errors
Samedi dernier, quand a débuté le procès de Clotilde Reiss, Alaeddine Boroujerdi, chef de la commission des affaires étrangères du Parlement islamique, s’est félicité de la détention et du procès de la jeune Française qui devait selon lui être le procès de l’ingérence des puissances étrangères en Iran. L’objectif était clairement défini : faire le procès de l’Etat français. Dans une logique de preneur d’otage qui garde le flou sur le sort de sa victime (la mort ou la libération), le tribunal révolutionnaire islamique avait d’ailleurs délibérément omis d’énoncer les chefs d’accusation et les peines requises pour mettre la pression à l’Etat français.
L’objectif était d’obtenir un assouplissement de la position française vis-à-vis du régime sur la question nucléaire. Actuellement, pour bloquer les négociations, le régime veut simuler une crise politique autour du scénario de l’absence de la légitimité du président élu, une illégitimité qui ôte toute valeur aux négociations à venir.
Ce scénario ne peut fonctionner que si l’on y croit : ce qui n’a jamais été le cas de la France. Ce pays avait d’abord ignoré Moussavi, le leader de cette contestation, avant de donner un cadre légal à ce choix en affirmant que la France reconnaissait uniquement les Etats et non les gouvernements. Ce qui voulait dire que contestation ou pas, l’Iran allait devoir répondre en temps et en heure aux demandes qui lui étaient adressées par la communauté internationale.
Clotilde Reiss a été arrêtée quand la France faisait acte d’ignorer Moussavi, elle est passée en jugement pour des motifs gravissimes, juste après que la France ait légalisé son refus de se laisser embarquer dans le scénario de la contestation feinte de la légitimité de l’interlocuteur des Six dans le dossier nucléaire.
Bien que consciente des enjeux de ce procès sans contenu judiciaire, la France n’a pas donné satisfaction aux mollahs : elle n’a pas changé immédiatement son discours sur le scénario de la contestation de la légitimité d’Ahmadinejad. Ce nouveau refus a mis Téhéran dans un grand embarras car il voit dans cette contestation l’unique moyen de bloquer les négociations et il doit obtenir un soutien international avant la prochaine rencontre des Six prévue le 15 septembre 2009 en marge de la 64e assemblée générale de l’ONU. Désormais, Téhéran a tout juste un mois pour concrétiser son scénario. Pour obtenir un soutien international urgentissime à sa contestation scénarisée, il a eu l’idée folle d’évoquer les viols des prisonniers du mouvement contestataire pour agir sur la corde sensible : obtenir un soutien humanitaire aux contestataires persécutés comme une alternative à une reconnaissance politique de leur action.
Bien que cette dernière initiative était indépendante du cas de Clotilde et que les viols avaient été localisés dans une prison désormais fermée, ces révélations surmédiatisées par des hauts responsables du régime ont fait aussi monter la tension autour de la jeune et jolie Française livrée à elle-même dans les geôles iraniennes comme une cible facile pour ce genre de sévices. On imagine mal des Français rester en bons termes avec un tel régime. C’est ce qui a fait reculer hier ce régime qui a proposé « une liberté conditionnelle pour la jeune Française d’ici à la fin de son procès à condition qu’elle réside à l’ambassade de France à Téhéran » : il a besoin d’un otage pour faire pression sur la France et non d’un nouveau symbole féminin de sa répression comme l’a été Neda. C’est un retournement de situation qui donne l’avantage à la France.
Explications de l’avantage français | Quand les révélations des viols ont été publiées par le régime, il est devenu impossible pour la France de continuer sa politique de patience à propos de cette détention pour ne pas donner de gages aux mollahs : chaque jour de plus en prison aurait été un jour de plus d’inquiétude pour les Français, une anxiété synonyme d’une baisse de popularité présidentielle dans les sondages d’opinion. La France avait alors lâché du terrain sur sa position en exprimant ses « vives préoccupations au sujet des mesures brutales de répression visant une large partie de la population iranienne contestant pacifiquement la sincérité et les résultats du scrutin présidentiel du 12 juin ».
Après le geste gêné de Téhéran, elle a adopté le silence pour mettre la pression aux mollahs. Elle espère les pousser dans leurs derniers retranchements pour obtenir une libération pure et simple de la jeune Française qui devra ce coup de théâtre à sa beauté touchante, à son expression digne pendant le procès, à la justesse des manœuvres françaises et surtout à l’imprudence d’un régime pris à la gorge qui improvise et par conséquent multiplie les erreurs
Don’t forget that the net and infos are filtered, that we happen to know what they want us to do.
Aug 11, 2009 - 7:02 pm 37. Marie Claude:uh, exterpt from Iran_Resist
Aug 11, 2009 - 7:04 pm 38. Marie Claude:Ira Zad:
Sarkozy is saying ouch for 2 reasons:
1) EU/US idiotically conducted “Green Coup” has failed.
and;
not at all, it ain’t our business, but of the american’s certain iranian lobbies
Besides, ” France recognized only states and not governments. ”
2) French oil giant “Totale” has lost its control of the southern Pars oil field in southwestern Iran to the–get this: Chinese national oil compnay, CNPC.
WTF, Total is on many other places, like EXXon, BP, Shell…
(yep, Ahmadinejad creaming Rafsanjani clan who were the traditional beneficiaries of the French oil oligarchy so far–)
WTF, France hasn’t a favorite tyran, they can all stand in the crabs basket as far as our consideration
So, that’s why the Cries of “Merde” coming out of “Shorty” in France, and EU in general — nothing to do with anything else–
Otherwise, Sarkozy or Merkel, or Brown do not give a damn about, or are not concerned in the least with secular democracy for Iranian people!
Hell with Iranian people! LOL
you’re an idiot who is brainwashed by an administration that had convenient interests for doing so, where France & EU are severe commercial concurrents
We take care of the iranian population if she isn’t practicing the same cheating propaganda like Palestinians and Hezbollah are in use to.
But I have experienced that some Iranians that have access to the medias, especially the anglo-saxons’ do exert the kind of manipulation, ie using some fake images (funny, some of them come from the palestinian library)
Aug 11, 2009 - 7:20 pm 39. John "birther" Samford:Michael, you are a nice guy and a swell fellow, but you are wrong about Iran. NO Theocracy has ever been overthrown by internal elements. The Mullahs, high priests, whatever, come and go but the regime remains the same.
Replacing the old Mullahs with new mullahs won’t change a thing. Bouncing the Mullahs out of the palace and back to the Mosque will require military force.
NOTHING else will work,
It would be nice if you did some research and found a theocracy in history that was replaced by internal elements of a secular nature. You will be at that a while, since there aren’t any.
Once you accept the fact that military action is required, we can move on to a discussion of just what sort of military action would be most suitable.
I’m in favor of a sustained air campaign. Take down the power grid, ALL bridges big enough to hold a donkey cart, the palaces, military bases, etc.
Not enough targets there to keep the US Air Force busy for a whole year, so if the people won’t pull down the mullahs we will pound the rubble until they do. Maybe we will get lucky and get the Mullahs. Tell them what we are doing. Drop leaflets waring the civilians that we are bombing certain targets because of their military value. That will leave us in compliance with several treaties and lower civilian casualties. If civilians chose to ignore the warnings, then death was their choice. The Mullahs will run out of human shields before we run out of bombs.
At the worst the Mullahs will go underground. Once they do that they are through, since you cannot run a country from a bomb shelter. Hitler found that out.
The current plan is waiting and hoping they don’t nuke anything important. Important being relative.
Aug 12, 2009 - 11:19 am 40. kabud:Any military action there will stop the oil traffic
then Price of oil can easily reach $200 or $300
That will mean a collapse of the western economy. Not just USA economy but most of the global economic practices based so heavily on this fuel
It could be very possible that it is exactly what kremlin is planing to do.
If this happens there going to be a war with Russia because kremlin will never waste an opportunity to destroy USA in a time of our economical collapse. By the way they have more then enough oil to fuel bombers, ships, submarines, and even tanks.
Aug 13, 2009 - 10:31 pm 41. Sara:Great Article!!!
specially I like the ending which says.
“the Islamic Republic has died in the past two months. It is time for the West to bury it.”
It is time for appeasers to understand this SENTENCE and STOP this “appeasment policy”.
Great article, Mr. Ledeen, appreciate your efforts.
Aug 15, 2009 - 8:21 am 42. Michael Ledeen:thanks, much appreciated.
Aug 15, 2009 - 12:13 pm 43. Anne Applebaum » Blog Archive » A Good Month for Bad News:[...] Iran. There are show trials going on right now in Tehran. The revolution is devouring its children: Dozens of mid-level opposition leaders, many of them members of the former elite, are acting out [...]
Nov 11, 2009 - 3:56 pm