In the middle of the night, at 1:30 in the morning of Friday, August 14th, there was a large explosion at the monster petrochemical facility of the Iranian Pars Petrochemical Company in Bandar Assaluyeh. It is the biggest such plant in Iran, and the second largest in the whole Middle East (second only to one in Saudi Arabia).
The explosion, which took place in pipes carrying Liquid Petroleum Gas (which is mostly propane), caused fires throughout the facility. It took at least three hours before the fires were brought under control. At least two persons died (fortunately, at that hour personnel was at a minimum) and at least 30% of the plant was completely destroyed. Pars was forced to shut down the entire facility. Early estimates predicted it would remain closed for a month or two, and as of this writing it is still shut down.
The incident was almost certainly an act of sabotage by the regime’s enemies, and the whole story has been spiked. But the effects can be seen as far away as Tehran. Due to the chronic shortage of gasoline, many of the city’s 3500 buses and thousands of taxis had been converted to run on LPG. They were grounded after the attack on Pars, amounting to almost all of the two thousand LPG-run buses and, at a minimum, hundreds of taxis. Some of them are now being switched back to gasoline, but, given the country’s notorious lack of efficiency, it is a slow process. All this not only increases the ongoing distress of Iranian commuters, but heightens the country’s vulnerability to a potential cutoff of foreign gasoline, which has been proposed by bills now on the Congressional agenda.
This event has still not hit the major media, but it is well known to the leaders of the Islamic Republic, who were already facing an internal crisis of unprecedented magnitude. The regime’s internal enemies are getting stronger and more brazen, despite the bloody crackdown of recent months. The protests against the supreme leader, the president, and the top leaders of the regime, encompass every major city in the country. Every night chants of “Death to the Dictator!” ring out from rooftops and from within prisons. Whenever large numbers of people congregate, it becomes an occasion for an anti-regime demonstration, as took place in Tehran the other night during a soccer game in Azadi stadium.
Labor protests continue apace. As the indispensable Green Brief tells us,
“Reports have emerged that there is a strong possibility of workers’ strikes in Iran. Reports suggest that over 200,000 workers have not been paid their wages in months and this could lead to strikes in the very near future. This comes as the workers in Fars province’s main automobile factory have been on strike over the issue for the past five days. Other reports suggest that unemployment in Tehran alone has risen by 3% in the past few months.”
Above all, the horrors perpetrated by the regime against the peaceful demonstrators following the fraudulent June 12th elections are by now undeniable, supported by a torrent of testimony, and, in recent days, grim photos and even videos from the central cemetary in Tehran. It has now been established that the regime was overwhelmed by the magnitude of their own slaughter, and, faced with the problem of how to dispose of hundreds of bodies (many of which carried unmistakable marks of torture and sexual abuse), stashed them in meat lockers in and around Tehran. Testimony from cemetery workers tells of receiving frozen bodies in the middle of the night from security forces.
Some of this evidence is circulating on the Web; other documentation–audio and video alike–is being used within the political universe as part of a vicious war of all against all–and, notably, by the dissident Green Wave Movement of Mir Hossein Mousavi–that characterizes the death spiral of the Islamic Republic. Worse yet, according to Afshin Ellian, the highly reliable law professor at the University of Leiden in Holland, Supreme Leader Khamenei has received secret messages from Grand Ayatollah Sistani in Najaf, Iraq, criticizing the bloodthirsty behavior of Khamenei’s people. Sistani has apparently echoed the statement earlier this week from Grand Ayatollah Montazeri that the regime is neither “Islamic” nor “a Republic,” but a tyranny. Disrespect for the regime was also publicly displayed by the family of the founding father. In a break with protocol, Hassan Khomeini, the Ayatollah’s grandson, ostentatiously did not welcome Ahmadinejad and his administration when they visited the Imam Khomeini Shrine. Nor did he attend the swearing-in ceremony for the new government.
As Machiavelli warned his prince, the most dangerous thing for any leader is to provoke the contempt of the people.
All this pressure led the supreme leader to make a speech a few days ago that can best be described as a suicide note. After years of blaming the widespread protests, strikes and mockery of the regime on foreign agitators (including me and other Western critics), Khamenei gainsaid it all. “The judiciary should not base its judgment on rumors but on hard evidence. I do not accuse the leaders of recent events (read Mousavi and others) to be in the service of England or America. It is not proven that they worked for America or England.” As an Iranian friend of mine put it, Khamenei didn’t turn 180 degrees, he went the full 360.
Page 1 of 2 Next ->





PJM Home
Accomplice to Evil: Iran and the War Against the West
The Iranian Time Bomb: The Mullah Zealots’ Quest for Destruction
The War Against the Terror Masters: Why It Happened. Where We Are Now. How We’ll Win.
Tocqueville on American Character: Why Tocqueville’s Brilliant Exploraton of the American Spirit is as Vital and Important Today as it was Nearly Two Hundred Years Ago
Machiavelli on Modern Leadership: Why Machiavelli’s Iron Rules are as Timely and Important Today as Five Centuries Ago
Freedom Betrayed: How America led a Global Democratic Revolution, Won the Cold War and Walked Away
Pajamas Media appreciates your comments that abide by the following guidelines:
1. Avoid profanities or foul language unless it is contained in a necessary quote or is relevant to the comment.
2. Stay on topic.
3. Disagree, but avoid ad hominem attacks.
4. Threats are treated seriously and reported to law enforcement.
5. Spam and advertising are not permitted in the comments area.
The clause regarding "hate speech" has been deleted because readers criticized it as being too loosely defined. We agreed.
These guidelines are very general and cannot cover every possible situation. Please don't assume that Pajamas Media management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment. We reserve the right to filter or delete comments or to deny posting privileges entirely at our discretion. If you feel your comment was filtered inappropriately, please email us at story@pajamasmedia.com.
54 Comments
1. winston:“If Obama and his czars were as smart as they think they are, they’d be talking to the future leaders of Iran right now”…
I am unsure about Obama’s willingness to take on evil regimes of the world when he is leading one himself in Washington DC. I am not betting a penny on Obama’s and his help. I hope he stays away from our cause for good. He’s dangerous.
Aug 29, 2009 - 10:25 pm 2. Pajamas Media » The Death Spiral of the Islamic Republic II:[...] Read the entire piece here. [...]
Aug 30, 2009 - 2:13 am 3. Meryl:“As Machiavelli warned his prince, the most dangerous thing for any leader is to provoke the contempt of the people.” Indeed.
Aug 30, 2009 - 2:28 am 4. Ken Besig:The Iranian government will not succumb quietly and it may just be willing to kill enough of it’s citizens to hold onto power. Unlike the Shah, who was faced with the same dilemma, these Iranian hard line fundamentalist mullahs are willing to use unprecedented levels of lethal force to put down any rebellion. I don’t see the end of Achmadinejad and his fellow wack jobs coming any time soon, if at all.
Aug 30, 2009 - 3:03 am 5. David Thomson:The United States is probably blowing a splendid opportunity to marginalize the Iranian mullahs. They seem currently very vulnerable. A little push from the Western World may very well be all it takes to topple the government. Unfortunately, the self-hating Americans within the Obama administration are likely going to remain sitting on their hands. Hillary Clinton might issue a meaningless mild protest—at the very most.
Aug 30, 2009 - 3:52 am 6. Lawrence Kohn:Would a new regime dismantle the Revolutionary Guard? Would it stop supplying Hizballah? Would it end the nuclear weapons development program? Will it be democratic? Will the mullahs return to their traditional role, ala Sistani in Iraq, of theological, rather than political leadership? Will it ally with the US and forsake Russia and its long active KGB inside Iran?
Michael Ledeen’s answers to these questions and/or a discussion of plausible outcomes in each of these areas would be very helpful to read.
Aug 30, 2009 - 4:52 am 7. Jack:#3)
The second most dangerous thing a leader can do is be displayed as incompetent.
By this time all of the foreign leaders know that Obama is lacking in a lot of things.
Aug 30, 2009 - 5:20 am 8. Xcontra:Two significant items here — al Sistani communicating with Khameni and Khameini admitting publicly that mistakes were made. Thanks.
Also, the pipeline explosion seems important, though it’s hard to see the intention of the individuals who pulled it off.
I still want more information, on the entire situation. Freedom in Iran is still up in the air, not on the ground.
Aug 30, 2009 - 6:14 am 9. The Death Spiral of the Islamic Republic II « X Contra:[...] August 30, 2009 · Leave a Comment The Death Spiral of the Islamic Republic II [...]
Aug 30, 2009 - 6:17 am 10. Pelaut:Shahnshah, or Ahmadinejad and Khomeini, or Mousavi and Khatami — does it really make any difference? The same old cycle will just go round and round.
While the Greek/Roman/English trajectory plummets and its ‘Last Best Hope’ commits suicide, do we really care how the Mad Max world of eternally evil warlords self-destruct?
Bring back the Ottomans from the Med to the Pacific, or just nuke ‘em all after rescuing the pretty women, if they have any under their horse blankets.
Aug 30, 2009 - 6:32 am 11. The Death Spiral of the Islamic Republic II « X Contra:[...] August 30, 2009 · Leave a Comment Michael Ledeen links to a YouTube of Iran government coverup of freedom activists death, and he reports two valuable pieces of information on freedom in Iran, viz. The Death Spiral of the Islamic Republic II [...]
Aug 30, 2009 - 6:33 am 12. Pragmatist:Dont worry guy the Obamanation won’t let one of his favourite Mohammedan Theocrasies suffer he is counting on them to take out Israel. So then he can stand arms folded US Forces stood down and watch and say ‘tut tut what a shame Ah well life goes on’.
Aug 30, 2009 - 6:41 am 13. Grand Ayatollah Ali al Sistani and the Death Spiral of the Islamic Republic « X Contra:[...] August 30, 2009 · Leave a Comment Michael Ledeen links to a YouTube of Iran government coverup of freedom activists death, and he reports two valuable pieces of information on freedom in Iran, viz. The Death Spiral of the Islamic Republic II [...]
Aug 30, 2009 - 6:42 am 14. Death spiral of The Islamic Repbulic - Why We Protest - IRAN:[...] [...]
Aug 30, 2009 - 7:28 am 15. post structure:the regimes enemies who where able to put out the petrochemical plant are obamas people.
Aug 30, 2009 - 7:50 am 16. post structure:The iranian regime wont go as soon as you americans think. Im living outside iran and was went there recently.
And if it goes away a nationalist secular government will hopefully be able to withstand americanism.
Aug 30, 2009 - 8:00 am 17. Samizdat:President Obama should be employing the CIA to actively support the Iranian opposition. They need additional help communicating with each other and organizing so they can further pressure the Khamenei regime. Instead, he is permiting his Attorney General to distract the CIA, destroy it’s morale and terminate it’s effectiveness.
Not surprising, but devestating and sad. Down the road there will be a reckoning and the Obama administration is going to have difficulty dealing with the consequences. History will judge his administrations international malfeasance harshly.
Aug 30, 2009 - 8:08 am 18. Sunday August 30 – the daily story « Iran Election 2009:[...] [...]
Aug 30, 2009 - 8:32 am 19. john from cinncinatti:fortune is smiling on the big O, in doing nothing he has removed us from the Iranian drama. this death spiral has to completely on its own. we as the government have to be like ambulance chasers and have our business cards ready to hand out to whomever rises from the ashes of this tragedy. the Iranians apparently aren’t self hating like this administration so no apology, is forth coming except the one being forced out
Aug 30, 2009 - 8:33 am 20. Maziar Irani:I like the sentiment. What the author forgets to mention is that Khomeini won because the military stopped supporting late Dr. Bakhtiar’s government by the order of general Huyser. Of the 22 highest ranking generals signing the letter claiming military’s neutrality, 20 were executed in short order. Only the 2 brokers (Gharebaghi and Fardoost)were let go. Mullahs and their high level supporters are fully aware of this fact and this is WHY Khamenei took his words back claiming that US/UK were behind the unrests. Their biggest fear is in fact just that!
Those of us fighting for freedom in Iran wish outsiders stop supporting the Mullahs regime. One such support is VoA Persian paid for by US tax payer. This Sat TV station watched by many in Iran does nothing to promote freedom fighters. Its personnel must be some of the most incompetent Iranians living in the US!
Aug 30, 2009 - 9:03 am 21. Professor Guvinoff:Kamenei and his consort have done all they could to derail the transformation of Iraq (and Lebanon) in modern directions, but Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani, the most influencial man in Iraq, and the Shia community at large, is still able to change the course of events without fanfare!
Will we see the persian mullahcracy crumble under its own weight? I cannot do any more than hoping, so I hope. Our president could do a whole lot more, but he prefers to vote “present”, which in practice renders him absent from the scene. For all his zeal to change everything, his cowardice amounts to crying “Don’t nobody change nothin”, when history is coming to one of its forks in the road!
Let’s hope and pray that stopping his systematic destruction of American values will not be as difficult and painful as it is for today’s Iranians protestors to earn a return of their dignity.
Aug 30, 2009 - 10:33 am 22. Jassem Othman:Michael, indeed it is the beginning of the end of the Islamic Republic.
It is sad that leaders and politicians in Western countries are not moving at the same pace as the Iranian people and are not opening their eyes to realities as much as they should.
Today the Iranians are moving with incredible speed to overthrow a dictatorial regime and its suppressive measures which has enchained them for the past 30 years, but alas, that US and most of colorblind Western leaders still desires to negotiate with this repressive regime!!! But that Iranians want the West to completely chide the current repressive regime and want them to impose sanctions against it.
But, Who would expect that the Iranian people not to fight for freedom against a fanatic dictatorial suppressive regime?! Who would expect that the Iranian people will sacrificing their lives for their freedom?! Most Obviously, there in the US are a right elite “A FEW Neo-conservatives”, I call them in “Advocates and Philosophers of the Absolute Axis of Good”. That great elite and on its head is the brave man, Dr. Michael Ledeen, who has LONG argued that regimes in the Middle East are hated and despised by its people! Dr Ledeen has been beating this drum FOR YEARS, but Unfortunately “None are so deaf as those who will not hear!” However, I call the leaders and journalists and politicians in Western countries to open their eyes to realities to see that Iranian people indeed today are risking and sacrificing their lives for their freedom!!! Wake up, please!
Aug 30, 2009 - 11:03 am 23. The Death Spiral of the Islamic Republic II - Michael Ledeed - Worth a read - Why We Protest - IRAN:[...] [...]
Aug 30, 2009 - 12:19 pm 24. koorosh:Thank you Sir!
Aug 30, 2009 - 12:24 pm 25. Do the Math:Excellent update, Mr. Ledeen.
I have been speaking of our own leadership and the phenomenom I like to summarize as Stupid & Aggressive.
Stupid & Aggressive is the worst possible combination of characteristics, as poor decision-making is enforced/pursued by aggressive actions.
We are seeing some of this coming from our own current administration, but what you have helped us understand is that this approach is in full-bore, high-gear speed in Iran.
God save us from those who govern from a platform of Stupid & Aggressive.
God bless the people of Iran in shedding the corrupt, Stupid & Aggressive regime which holds the reins of power.
Aug 30, 2009 - 12:53 pm 26. John Kennard:Please use the word “repression” instead of “crackdown”–a “crackdown” can be a good thing . . . .
Thanks, and “Azadi!”
John Kennard
Aug 30, 2009 - 1:18 pm 27. Paul M Hupf:Excellent! Let’s have more from Mr. Ledeen, please.
Aug 30, 2009 - 1:31 pm 28. Howard:So you think the elites in the West are not paying attention? I would like to point out that the elites in the West are just as afraid of their people as are the Mullahs. It must be kept in mind that the international elites of the Davos variety have more in common with each other than with their respective populations.
The last thing the elites need is a successful overthrow of a tyrannical regime to provide an inspiration to restive populations already subjected to petty bureaucrats and mind numbing regulations meant to suppress and manipulate.
If successful, the new Iranian revolution will be a harbinger of doom for regimes already held in contempt by their populations in the US, France, Germany, UK, etc.
Aug 30, 2009 - 1:53 pm 29. tanstaafl:If Obama and his czars were as smart as they think they are, they’d be talking to the future leaders of Iran right now.
Pity, Obama’s Czars, advisors and so forth still seem to be into the agenda of US Dear Leader having a tête à tête with the worm A’jad rather than any realistic appraisal of a changing dynamic in Iran.
This is what happens when you have a crew proceeding on ideology as opposed to common sense.
Aug 30, 2009 - 2:29 pm 30. tanstaafl:(Aside Alert…)
I saw your picture in the Bulletin, Mr. Ledeen.
Congratulations on the win
Lots of interesting bridge this week from South America on BBO.
Aug 30, 2009 - 2:34 pm 31. eor:Obama stands with the hard liners. Otherwise why is he doing everything possible to take down our country. See Mansour/Obama connection on internet and see Khakid Mansour speeches on youtube. He is former(?) Black Panther and by his tirades obviously Muslim/Islamist,with instructions to work hard and “take over”. I’m sure it will soon disappear from view.
Aug 30, 2009 - 4:23 pm 32. Jassem Othman:No doubt it is the beginning of the end of the Islamic Republic, despite this repressive regime can last a long time, UNLESS the West intervenes to help the Iranian people by all means.
In general, the jittery arbitrariness regimes and illegitimate monarchies impose a strict repression on protests, ruthlessly oppressing their peoples, murder them, and arrest the leaders of the opposition to punish them, even this jittery regimes could easily send tanks and their people if needed!
It is the lack of accountability, today “the West” cannot honor its commitments for the values of liberty to promote freedom and democracy in a societies that have become a real threat to their values and life, and it is the lack of accountability to protect people who are risking and sacrificing their lives for their freedom. Alas!
Jassem Othman, Syrian.
Aug 30, 2009 - 4:23 pm 33. Mike Gate:To Pelaut : your comment is one of the dumbest thing I ever read
Aug 30, 2009 - 6:28 pm 34. Jason S:How sad that people that only want their vote to count can’t rely on the country that invented freedom. For the first time in my adult life, I’m not proud of my country.
Aug 30, 2009 - 7:06 pm 35. David W. Lincoln:Two things Michael, and they coalesce. First, Stalin was able to get away with what he got away with because it was easier to stop communications effectively. Yes, there were reports, thanks to Muggeridge and others, which showed the depravity of the version of man’s inhumanity to man dished out by Stalin and his legions.
The other thing is, those who do not want to see tend not to see.
Aug 30, 2009 - 8:45 pm 36. Michael Lonie:I am glad to see the Iranian people finally trying to overthrow the tyrants over them. They are very courageous to do so, for the regime will kill, as we have seen, to stay in power. I wish our government was helping the people, but we cannot expect that from the dim bulbs now in power in DC.
Aug 30, 2009 - 8:59 pm 37. GCA:Mr. Kohn, commenter no. 6, asks the questions all Americans should ask: what effect will an overthrow of the current regime have vis a vis relations with the West, and will the Iranian people gain any meaningful freedom given, as Mr. Ledeen admits in his post, those in position to assume power are essentially long term insiders currently out of power?
My heart goes out to the Iranian people. I admire all who have risked their lives to stand up against tyrrany at great risk to themselves, and especially respect those who have paid with their lives or suffered great harm as the result of their courage. But when the current brouhaha is over will, either they or we be any better of than we are now?
Aug 30, 2009 - 10:05 pm 38. PK:Michael, your article is good, but I’m surprised you don’t mention some other possibilities.
1. Khamenei, Ahmadinejad and the rest of them are in damage control and crisis management. Undeniably this time the crisis is more serious than previously. I suspect that’s why Khamenei did a 180 or even 360. I’ve doubts the explosion at petrochemical facility was done by Mousavi or Karubi supporters. Most likely by other Iranians who don’t belong to pro reform group. Unless you have evidence to the contrary.
2. One of Khamenei’s responsibilities as a supreme leader is to achieve a certain balance between the ever warring regime factions. His job is to be the equalizer. Mousavi and Karubi are part and parcel of the Islamic establishment, just as Ahmadinejad, tho they belong to different factions of the same Islamic regime.
3. It is not in the interest of Khamenei to arrest or punish Mousavi or Karubi. Khamenei needs these reformists to prolong the entire regime’s hold on power. Don’t forget it was Khamenei and his Guardian Council, who specifically selected and approved of Mousavi and Karubi to run as presidential candidates to begin with. It’s also well known that elections in Iran, among serving other purposes, are often used as a barometer of public opinion and mood. In helping to reinstal Ahmadinejad, Khamenei may have made a huge tactical mistake with the people.
4. Mousavi, Karubi or Montazeri are not interested in changing the Islamic regime. They would do themselves out of power and a job. Why do you think they unfailingly refer to Imam Khomeini’s revolution and the Islamic Republic of Khomeini ?! Do we honestly believe Khomeini’s Islamic Republic was more of an “Islamic republic”, and less evil than Ali Khamenei’s rule ?! Khomeini viciously ruled just as Ali Khamenei does, tho Ali Khamenei has much less clout than Khomeini did.
Mousavi and Karubi are mobilizing their own groups, jockeying for power. In fact, they are doing the regime, as whole, a favor by pointing out its current weaknesses, and challenging it to become more “democratic”. They’ve read the mood of the people, they know if they don’t take action, one way or another, to mollify the crowd, the regime as a whole may just fall !
In the process of this imaginary and superficial democratization, the regime will certainly find scapegoats to save the whole of its existence.
5. What type of change(s) do you envision we’ll see in Iran if Mousavi or Karubi, Khatami or Montazeri were to take over from Ali Khamenei or Ahmadinejad? If one is advocating a Reform of Islamic government in Iran, then that’s something else. Otherwise, I don’t see any real change(s) occurring as a result of ‘reform’ of current regime.
6. The Shah himself, the structure of Shah’s regime and the type, level of support 1979 revolution received from the West were completely different to IRI and today’s situation.
This regime will not fall with Mousavi or Karubi. They may play the role of a catalyst for a more radical change in time to come. But, genuine regime change will only occur when the entire structure of IRI is pulled down and apart. This cannot happen without direct help from outside and the West. At least not without the West discontinuing its appeasement of IRI all around. I suspect, at this stage and at best, the West would possibly lend its support to a “pro Islamic Reform” change in Iran, not a secular, democratic change.
Aug 31, 2009 - 12:06 am 39. NiteOwl:Thank you for the praise for the GB. I try my very best. But your words meant A LOT to me. Not because you praised my work, but because it lets me know that people are watching this very closely and haven’t given up on the plight of democracy and human rights.
Best,
Josh
Aug 31, 2009 - 1:16 am 40. ali ardakani:Mr, Ledeen , one question is this another “Manny, Moe & Rafsanjani”?
Once again Mr Ledeen predicts, and nothing will come about.
I will kindly remind all of Mr Ledeen’s predication that Khamenie has died because he didn’t show up for a ceremony.
Worse yet, I vivdly remember his prediction in the article “Manny, MOe…” that Rafsanjani will win again.
I sure hope the ALL KNowing Prof. Afshin Elian didn’t let him on that one.
Unfortunately, Mr Ledeen bases his predictions on rumors and false readings. He is totally unaware of the role of Republican Guard aka Sepah in Iran and the internal struggle within.
Have you heard of Hassan Taeb, Asghar Hejazi, Sardar Radan? These are big players, hardly mentioned in Agence France or Reuters. You may know of one Safavi, another Jafari..etc but these are men with big bullhorns but not muscle. You need to look deeper!
In So far as Khamenie’s talk that “opposition leaders were not supported by western agents…” Mr Ledeen would have wished if Khamenie would have stated otherwise, so the opposition would get stiffer. Unfortunately, Mr Ledeen was really disappointed by these words from Mr Khamenie. Mr Ledeen knows deep inside that these words would once again show Khamenie as a father figure and soften the opposition or atleast redirect the opposition to AHmadinejad only and leave out Khamenie.
Sorry, Mr Ledeen. You so wanted Khamenie to say loudly that opposition were supported by US & UK. But once again you saw the Iranian intelligence at hand, playing both sides of the equation. Just like they do in the Middle East, they play both sides and always come ahead or unscathed.
Mr Ledeen, wrongly assumes that by firing Mr Mortazavi (Tehran’s general prosecuter) the hardliners will get the feeling that Mr Khamenie will no longer support them and hence they will retreat and the forces of opposition will advance. WRONG!
You assumed that Hardliners will react like CIA interrogators who now feel no one supports them and hence they will retreat???
Behind the closed curtains, Mr Mortazavi gets plenty of perks and is told ” Bother, we have to do this to quiet down the people.”
The people in the opposition also get to see that Mortazavi is gone. They would think, alright atleast we got rid of Mortazavi and they get back to work and normal lifes.
However, Mr Ledeen would have wished for Mortazavi to stay. Would have wished for the prisoner interrogator to be publicly supported. But he knows that the IRanian Leaders get to fool the public with these firings and declarations and hence the opposition quietly dies down.
Ofcourse, Mr Ledeen would wish for the regime to be overthrown. This would not happen. However, as someone who knows Iranian politics, yes, Mr Ahmadinejad might be sacrificed and instead someone like Mr. Mohammad Ghalibaf (current mayor of Tehran) might become President.
If Ahmadinejad goes, Mr Ledeen would think the regime will soon follow, but those who know, realize that by his departure the regime has only deepened its anchor!
Mr./ Ledeen you are definetly wrong to think that Iranian leaders are like Saddam – stubborn and arrogant and unresponsive to criticism. No, they listen to the people on the street and make changes when it becomes necessary.
Mr. Ledeen, you are also wrong, to think that Iranian leaders would sell out or sacrifice people in the government the way they do in the United States. In the US, when Donald Rumsfeld is forced to step down because of the direction of the war and torture charges, he is essentially disrobed to the public and left to fend off for himself. He is cut and done with. In Iran, they do things a bit more humanely and with respect ala Persian style such that the person leaving doesn’t feel resentment.
This is why Iranian policy seems so chaotic yet smart at the same time.
yours.
Aug 31, 2009 - 5:55 am 41. World Threats » Blog Archive » Iran Update:[...] Ledeen has a must-read piece on Pajamas Media. Ayatollah Khamenei is admitting that members of the security forces made [...]
Aug 31, 2009 - 7:56 am 42. Lynn:Oh yes the Persians are so much more civilized than we crass Americans. That is why after approaching a woman on the street with scissors, cutting her clothing because she dared to wear loose pants, they bring her aboard a bus so the camera cannot film her humiliation and terror. So polite, so respectful.
And how they quietly pull aside the young girl whose hair has come loose from the cloth around her head, her shame peeking out for all to see. They so quietly and politely inform her of her immodesty while a car awaits nearby in case she become difficult.
So polite, so discreet! Of course it also helps that the press is controlled there, everything is nice, everything is cool, those little eruptions that manage to leak out into the world are quickly controlled, the light once again turned off, the dark, friend to the tyrannies once again rules.
Aug 31, 2009 - 9:53 am 43. ali ardakani:ATTENTION “Lynn” :
“Oh yes the Persians are so much more civilized than we crass Americans.”
One Sentence: We all got to see a glance of your civilization at the Health Care Reform Town Hall Meetings.
330 million people : taxed to death, no savings, living paycheck to paycheck, living like animals, no natural foods- all hormones that bloat the face, worried to express opinions lest they lose 9-5 jobs, no national unifying fabric- each to his own, glorifying violence and whoredom. over 50 % divorce rate, living and dying alone. The best days are over, now the war is no longer external it is within.
Aug 31, 2009 - 12:47 pm 44. Essi55:Ali Ardekani is not a fool. He has read too many Iranian suspense stories and has developed a wild imagination. He does not realize Iranian people are at the end of the road and won’t accept regime’s superficial removal of Ahmadinejad. Removing Ahmadinejad, on the contrary, will strengthen people’s will to go all the way and remove the entire system, with or without Mousavi. Mr. Ardekani does not realize Karoubi who was a product of this same Regime has now changed his position (after witnessing the brutalities and rapes) and is with people, determined to bring down the Regime, and the “Velayat Faqih”. Mr. Karoubi has heard people and knows they won’t rest until a secular democratic government is installed. Even Mousavi knows this by now. Yes, Mousavi did not intend to bring down the regime, just reform it, but it’s too late now, and he has finally concluded “Regime cannot be reformed”. Everyone knows the only option left is removal the entire Regime and peruse a secular democratic society. Iranians want: “Independence, Democracy, and Iranian Republic”.
Aug 31, 2009 - 1:05 pm 45. Welcome | Project on Middle East Democracy:[...] the potential for a massive labor strike, Ledeen warns against underestimating the possibility of a new Iranian revolution. Given this opportunity, Martin Kramer argues to put U.S.-Iran engagement on hold so the U.S. can [...]
Aug 31, 2009 - 1:30 pm 46. Jassem Othman:#43. ali ardakani:
The Middle East is most oil-rich area and “Iran” is the third richest oil country in the world. The countries of the Middle East possess more than 70 % of Global Oil Reserves and though are consider un-developed and extremely late and violent. The oil-rich countries in the Middle East are awash in dirtiness and backwardness “slums everywhere”, although I am from the terrible Middle East.
The nations of Middle East do not have a civilized social welfare system, backwater in all scopes, there is no infrastructures development, no economic development and social, no high human development, no rational educational curriculum, no decent life, no peaceful future, there are no human rights, no animal rights, no women rights “a women are most cursed and scorned”, and no real democracy, except Israel State, where Israel is an very developed and it regarded as important part of the West culture. As for the first and the third richest oil countries in the world “Saudi Arabia and Iran”, obviously both are a source and exporter for terrorism and that Iran is the world’s biggest supporter of international terrorism.
However, the oil-rich countries in the Middle East, including “Iran” did not grant its people a comprehensive cultural life. They tyrannized their people, oppressed them, massacred them, and impoverished them. While the USA is the higher leader in the world in all scopes, and your civilization possesses oil and medicine and amazing technology only thanks to American mind, especially “a Jewish mind!” It’s folly to deny that!
If you criticize the USA culture, you despise the Western civilization. So, please a bit of respect to the West civilization.
Jassem Othman, Syrian.
Aug 31, 2009 - 3:23 pm 47. ali ardakani:Attention Jassem Othman the Syrian,
I have lived in the US and continue to do so. The reason I do is because after some time in your life, you get used to where you live. Heck, moving from one state to another is hard enough. I would in a heart beat trade the US for Iran if I were to live my life again.
If you have had problems in Syria, this might be due to mismanagment or economic issues or religious matters.
GO and ask any Iranian living abroad (pull them aside) especially dissedents, ask them if you had to do it again, would you?
GO to Iran, one drive through the city and your spirit brightens up. You feel you are connected even to strangers. Strangers invite you for lunch and dinner.
The is a common saying in Iranthat goes, if you have money the best place in the world is to live in Iran.
True, you might make more money in the West, but heck like my father always says, “I haven’t seen no one die of hunger” or “how do you think 70 mil people are living?”
Western Civ. is corroding and eroding. Life has no taste. You can’t connect with the people. You feel convulsions everytime you speak their language.
You walk the strets of Tehran or Isfahan, you see one beautiful lady after another and you feel great. A great deal has to do with what they wear. They dress up real nice, they have their own islamic dress, unlike Sunni Arabs. I hate to say it, but MR Jassem, I have been to Arab countries. The culture is totally different. In Arab countries, they import hydrocortizone creams, sun blockers ..etc. In IRan, every single Pharmaceutical agent is available there- MADE IN IRAN and 10% of price.
A cab ride that costs $ 35 in US, costs you only $3.5 in IRan.
On weekends, people live their lives to the fullest- extended families get together, or go over to the park or the Bagh “ranch.”
You cannot reproduce that feeling in the US. The US is good for people who have been here for generations and with big families, like the Kennedys, Bushs.
In Iran,there is a certain amount of tolerated chaos that makes life “tasty” and wonderful. Imagine, as a US citizen if you get pulled over, no car reg., no insurance, expired driver license – then the tickets…
In IRan, it is the “its all ok, just take care of it next time.” Like my sister says, you don’t have to worry about someone kicking you out of ht ecountry because this or that document expired, why ? because YOU are Iranian, like all else.
In Western societies, life was good until the 50s. Since then, it’s going downward. The mass immigration to Western countries and mass naturalizations, have made those governments put into effect laws that treat all as numbers. The natural born citizen no longer feels any semblence that this is his country. You only find the Proud AMerican feelings in the segregated south, because over there the citizen still feels like it is his country. But imagine your average white American Joe who go to a convenience store only to find an Indian with an accent running it and then maybe yelling at him. Or imagine, the average Joe who goes to a Pharmacy and wants to buy a medication, only to be told its $35, he has $ 30 but that won’t cut it.
Imagine a life where your daughter grows up not speaking your native Arabic language properly, or your daughter listening and dressing like Britney, or your son walking with his pants down his ankle. Worse yet, if your spouse happens to not be from your country.
You only live one life, if you work hard, you won’t die of hunger even in Rwanda. Do you want a wealthy life that becomes rountine, cold and you can’t enjoy your wealth, or a life where you life well, visit family, listen to your aunt gossip, see your son act and dress like a man by the time he is 18.
The only thing left that is any good in the Western civilization is POST GRADUATE EDUCATION. All else is temporary and meaningless.
Aug 31, 2009 - 5:07 pm 48. tedders:As far as Israel is concerned, maybe in Arab countries you feel ambivalence, maybe because you had your Nagasaki, Hirosshima experineces in 1948,67 & 73 which made you realize your limits.
FOrtunately and I must say with GOd’s grace, this didn’t happen to IRanians. Their spirit has never been broken, unlike Arabs. Had Iran been attacked 30 years ago when Iran was producing nothing and only 30 mil population, Iranians might have same feelings as Arabs, but today with Iran producing everything from cars, guns, pharmaceuticals, paint, iron, steel, and BTW amazing interior designs- Iranians feel very proud.
Ever think why news agencies report on Iran so much. Did you know that the post election killings in Iran recieved much more coverage than killing of Uighers in China or the Killings in Burma last year.
I advise you to visit Iran, you will see, even the kid in Iran who dresses like a punk will defend Iran in war, even the girl who is floating Islamic clothing in IRan will defend its right to nuclear technology.
Iranian spirit is still strong, they are always thinking of tomorrow, unlike some nations that are spending their time discussing why Sunni is the striagh path.
Take time and compare Iran wot Egypt. Effectively, Egypt has been under US and ISraeli protection for past 30 years and IRan hasn’t. Indeed Iran went to war with Iraq. Now go and compare them. While Iran produces Samand cars that compare to Kia and Hyndai, Egypt produces belly dancers.
GO and see the poverty that Egyptians live in. Iranians are nowhere close to that. It has alot to do with culture and mentality. People who get the feeling that their governemnt is helpless, over time start to break down. An old Egyptian man walking down the street, notices how a young Egyptian girl is wearing a tight mini skirt, and revealing upper body and feels a shame of a culture and tradition betrayed. Whilst an Iranian old man walking down the street notices a girl with a versace handbag, high heel shoes, tight dress, bleached hair, yet feels comforted that the girl is still not showing skin, and is still wearing her veil (though retracted) and feels atleast she hasn’t forgotten her culture and tradition.
ali ardakani, what’s stopping you from going back to your persian paradise?
“You feel convulsions everytime you speak their language.” I suggest you go see a neurologist as soon as possible.
“MADE IN IRAN and 10% of price.” Like gasoline!! LOL Or those photoshopped missiles?
“The US is good for people who have been here for generations and with big families, like the Kennedys, Bushs.”
That’s why you’re here?
“In Iran,there is a certain amount of tolerated chaos that makes life “tasty” and wonderful.”
Like the rate of heroin addiction?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2005/oct/27/iran.roberttait
Google Iran, heroin and addiction and read about some of that tasty chaos!! You’re a comedian my friend!!
“In IRan, it is the “its all ok, just take care of it next time.” http://img.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2007/07_03/hanging100208_468×592.jpg
http://www.iranian.com/main/blog/sce-campaign/list-children-facing-execution
Such a jolly care free place Iran is!! LMAO!!!
“You only find the Proud AMerican feelings in the segregated south, because over there the citizen still feels like it is his country.” You immerse yourself in pure ignorance my friend, I truly do believe you’d be happier in Iran.
“Nagasaki, Hirosshima experineces in 1948,67 & 73 which made you realize your limits.” Delusional. Cognitive dissonance. Revisionist fantasy. You’ve fallen hook line and sinker of the “It’s all Americas fault” rantings. Good luck with that.
“FOrtunately and I must say with GOd’s grace, this didn’t happen to IRanians.”
Guess you haven’t been watching the news from over there lately, broken, beaten, arrested, raped and murdered, over there, in Iran to Iranians.
“Whilst an Iranian old man walking down the street notices a girl with a versace handbag, high heel shoes, tight dress, bleached hair, yet feels comforted that the girl is still not showing skin, and is still wearing her veil (though retracted) and feels atleast she hasn’t forgotten her culture and tradition.”
http://www.rferl.org/content/article/1079182.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/irans-brutal-morality-police-are-growing-in-power-warns-nobel-prizewinner-842090.html
Iran does have a wonderful culture, but blind hating fools like yourself don’t contribute to the beauty of Iran, you take away it’s greatness by rattling off your vapid hate filled blusterings. You have my pity friend, go seek some professional help as soon as possible.
Aug 31, 2009 - 7:28 pm 49. shiraz:Dear Jassem Othman, as an Iranian I should say that I love and truly appreciate your very passionate sentiments of support for our people and our fight for freedom. May freedom be of all the people living under despotic regimes. You are also right about your frustration against the Western elitists disguised as liberals for their disdain on giving any meaningful support to the cause of freedom for Iranian people or any other people for that matter. Thank you my friend!
Sep 1, 2009 - 3:59 pm 50. Jassem Othman:#47. ali ardakani:
Mr Ardakani, as long as the west life has no taste, so why you do live in the west?! Well, I am secular muslim “born as sunni”, I do live for a long time in Poland and my relation is only with Poles, it is a respect relation. In general, we the Islamic communities are closed socially and culturally, Moslems do not want mergers with the western societies. The vast majority of moslems or most likely all moslems in general mightily are dismiss the western societies, and they discard the westerners life such as dress fashionably, boyfriend, girlfriend, attend cocktail parties…etc.
In general the muslim women whether they are “Sunni or Shiites” all draping in black abayas, they must be covered from the head to the toe in public, their look as “ghosts”. So, why the life’s quotidian joys “women” must be covered from the head to the toe as long as the Lord was created Eve and Adam naked? Our God created them in his own image and God created them male and female, they were both naked, and were not ashamed. I do NOT mean we should be a naked, of course I strongly urge to morality. But most sadly, in Arab and muslim world a women are persecuted and thrall to men.
“Iranians might have same feelings as Arabs, but today with Iran producing everything from cars, guns, pharmaceuticals, paint, iron, steel, and BTW amazing interior designs- Iranians feel very proud.”
I entirely agree with you that Arabs have same traditions and feelings as Iranians, and no doubt there are good and bad people.
They did not producing everything, rather they just collecting cars, engines and heavy machinery has manufactured in the West. Please, have you forgotten that all raw materials were produced in the West?
“The only thing left that is any good in the Western civilization is POST GRADUATE EDUCATION. All else is temporary and meaningless.”
Mr. Ardakani, let’s say it’s all true! The western civilizations or the civilization of enlightenment it is a culture of human freedoms and rights. It is a culture of respecting for life and right of the choice in faith and practice of daily life, while our civilization “Islamic civilization” is a culture of backwardness, stagnation, barbarity, oppression, religious extremism, and intellectual extremism which want to dominate on people life throughout the world to change it in accordance with their violent values. Our mentality is belongs to the middle Ages, while the western mentality is belongs to the 21st century.
“I advise you to visit Iran, you will see, even the kid in Iran who dresses like a punk will defend Iran in war, even the girl who is floating Islamic clothing in IRan will defend its right to nuclear technology.”
Mr. Ardakani, does not surprise, in muslim world you could see a lot of kids armed to be suicide bombers. But on the other hand, we remember (Neda), “symbol of rebellion in Iran”, Neda, was young Iranian girl brutally killed in Iran because she just wanted her right from regime. Neda wanted her right to be FREE, NOT to defend to get nuclear weapon.
In fact, there are in Iran, in Arab world a millions of people would rather live like Americans, they want peaceful future without fundamentalist Islam and without tyrannical regimes.
The West never imposes its values on nations, the western people a simple and kind-hearted. For instance, Japan is a very developed country, and it regarded as very important part of the West culture. Japan is regarded as one of the Western countries, and though Japanese freely practicing their traditions.
Mr Ali Ardakan, I call you to support freedom and democracy in Iran and do not absolve the regime of evil intent, where millions of Iranians need your help. It’s your moral duty to support freedom in Iran. please get away of emotions.
May God bless the USA and bless freedom in the Middle East
Sep 1, 2009 - 6:14 pm 51. Jassem Othman:Jassem Othman
#49. shiraz:
Sep 1, 2009 - 6:32 pm 52. PK:Dear Shiraz, thank you, this is my moral duty to support freedom and democracy in Iran or elsewhere. Above all we should be grateful to those who are strongly fighting in Washington for people freedom, especially this great institutions “The Foundation for Defense of Democracies”, American Enterprise Institute”. I call to support them.
Essi55, Can you point us to a recent mousavi or karubi speech or action in which they clearly show or say “the regime cannot be reformed”? How do you know for sure they want to bring down Velayat Faqih and replace it with a secular, democratic, Iranian Republic?
Just as some people back around 1979 put on their hejab, called themselves seyyed, and grew a beard to go with the flow, and to not lose favor with then Islamic government of Khomeini, I suspect some of these regime “products”, when they sense the entire regime is about to fall, and to save their own neck, they will put away their robes and turbans and claim they always wanted a secular, democratic, Iranian republic! Hypocrisy in action.
Sep 1, 2009 - 9:15 pm 53. John "birther" Samford:Despite the protests and sabotage the Mad Dog Mullahs maintain an iron grip on Iran.
Sep 1, 2009 - 10:21 pm 54. Iran between rock and hard place. - Techlog:The ONLY thing that will change the grip of the MDM is a well placed JDAM.
The hot rumor is that Israel has decide to give the MDM until the end of the month to stop building nukes. Now that the USA has pulled out of Iran, there is nothing to stop the IDF from hitting targets inside Iran.
[...] provided liquid propane used by many buses and taxis which have now had to revert to using petrol. link SOURCE: John Bolton wrote in Tuesday’s Wall Street Journal that “Last week, [...]
Sep 3, 2009 - 1:10 am