My last blog seems to have attracted an incredible amount of attention, and, as often happens, I have been given more credit than is absolutely necessary. I printed an email from an Iranian I consider a very good source, to the effect that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had been taken to the hospital, and was in a coma. I pointed out that it was easy to be wrong on such stories, and that in fact I had wrongly believed that Khamenei had died a couple of years ago. But I thought the source was good and I passed on his/her information.
A day later, I added an update about a bulletin issued by the opposition movement, The Green Path of Hope, which said that there were many rumors in the Tehran Bazaar saying that Khamenei had died, that the Bazaaris were planning to shut down the next day, and that there was an unusual atmosphere in the streets of Tehran.
By now, you can read all over the net that I was the source of the rumors about the death of the supreme leader, and it follows that I effectively shut down the Tehran Bazaar! That explains the headline at the top. Frankly, I don’t think my blog is all that powerful.
In fact, I have never claimed to know anything about Khamenei’s death, and I still don’t know anything. I hope to know something in the next few days, and you will probably know it when I do; one way or another the facts have to come out, if only to calm the agitated spirits all over Iran. People are apparently very nervous. Not only was the Bazaar closed, but there seems to be a run on staples, as people stock up against the possibility of unsettled times.
I would have expected someone at a high level of the regime to say something, but so far as I know, only the Iranian Embassy in Armenia has spoken up, calling the reports (including mine) nonsense. This produced an overstated headline from Fox News: “Iran Blasts Back at Rumors of Supreme Leader’s Death, News Site Reports.” The story isn’t nearly so dramatic.
The other “official” reaction came from an interesting source: the web site Tabnak, which is close to Mohsen Reza’i, the former commander of the Revolutionary Guards and a failed candidate in the June presidential elections. Tabnak predictably debunked my claim that Khamenei was in a coma, but then surprisingly translated the entire blog into Farsi. So I asked some Iranian friends: if they thought it was nonsense, why translate it all and put it up there?
Their answer was interesting. They thought that the people at Tabnak believed I had it right, and they put it up in order to say “hey look at this! The Americans know our most secret secrets.” In any event, today they took down the translation, leaving only the insults. And, I’m told (as you know I don’t read Farsi), they took the extraordinary step of removing the translation from the blog archives.
Was it too “hot”? I don’t know. Maybe some day I’ll find out.
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21 Comments
1. Rancher:Wow. If he is alive and well, or even if he could barely stand, they would trot him out to show the world. What benefit could they possibly have for not shutting down this rumor if that’s all it is?
Oct 15, 2009 - 3:39 pm 2. Ran:Google cache?
Oct 15, 2009 - 3:57 pm 3. David W. Lincoln:Google cache? Sorry, but that search engine is too politicized to leave any trace of that. Consider the energies expended to demonize Muggeridge in defense of Walter Duranty.
Anything that comes out of Iran on the web is subject to scrutiny. Just like the radio signals used by the Israeli’s in July, 1976 to rescue the hostages at Entebbe, they were picked up by the NSA, so whatever anonymity folks within Iran were counting on, those expectations evaporated like a plume of steam on a cloudless summer day.
Oct 15, 2009 - 4:27 pm 4. anon. Iranian:Iran’s official news agency IRNA is said to be responsible for everyday sending a list of news items to all media and other news agencies that they should NOT publish. I guess tabnak have received one such no-news item.
Oct 15, 2009 - 4:57 pm 5. a Duoist:The enduring problem from Iran is their ideo/theology of theofascism. Which clerical thug governs means much less than the philosophy which guides the Guides and their Guardians.
Oct 15, 2009 - 8:15 pm 6. Alireza:If a court in Iran proves a person knows you and has met with you and somehow you had exchanged communications, their bottom is literally grass! It is like NSA in U.S. proves that an American had direct contact and dealing with Bin Laden!
So you, Mr. Ledeen, have very much the same deadly liability for people in Iran! God help them, and I hope you take ALL steps needed to protect those people who come to know you and deal with you.
Now I wonder what was the deal that one of Khomenei’s son or grandson that ended up visiting AEI couple years ago. You said NOTHING and reported NOTHING as to the nature of this weird meeting. So could you please shed some light on it?
Having said that, I think the 72 hours coming to end soon. As I notice NO MAJOR news outlets mentioning this rumor, I get a sense that indeed there is some credibility to it. So we’ll find out in the coming few days.
Oct 15, 2009 - 8:25 pm 7. Elroy Jetson:Alireza,
Oct 15, 2009 - 11:20 pm 8. The Latest from Iran (16 October): Rumours and Drama, Khamenei and Karroubi | Enduring America:I hope your sense on the subject is the right one. I pray the Supreme Guide dies a painful death indeed.
And may the rest of the Islamic mafiosos destroy each other in the aftermath.
[...] 1235 GMT: In the Midst of Uncertainty, Comedy. Fars News’ fumbling attempt to turn the Khamenei health rumours into high evidence of the foreign-directed velvet revolution is book-ended by Michael Ledeen’s latest entry onto the stage. [...]
Oct 16, 2009 - 5:51 am 9. Michael Ledeen:Alireza, when you are ignorant of something, it’s best to ask questions rather than delivering lectures. I wrote quite a bit about the press conference for Khomeini’s grandson at AEI.
Oct 16, 2009 - 5:59 am 10. Rancher:Have his posters been torn down from classrooms at Borujerd Azad University? I’m at work and can’t check this out because facebook is blocked. http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=163499175247&id=136850187794&ref=mf
Oct 16, 2009 - 6:48 am 11. artin:Mr. Ledeen, then why do you deliver so many lectures on Iran rather than asking questions?
Oct 16, 2009 - 6:51 am 12. shiraz:Dear Michael,
Oct 16, 2009 - 8:44 am 13. Farhad Samimi:It is a known fact that the regime thugs and its parasite trolls are very very scared of you and your influence. This should be the greatest compliment for you. So just sit down and enjoy watching their demise!!!
Their days are numbered and that is why they stole billions of dollars from the national treasury transporting to Turkey 2 months ago. In the meantime Turkey has demanded 6 billion dollars in return as payment for safeguarding the stolen wealth. Here is Islamic countries way of governance!!!
As a matter of habit, it is natural to expect that any dictatorial governing body would think it can control the social events and social psychology, if it is given enough time to plan and prepare for the event. Same is in the case here, and it is natural to expect any time a dictator like Khamenehi who has been so involved with the business of a bloody tyranny, has to leave his cruel life, the body of his disciples will face the same level of intense anxiety. This time however, we know their control is not as tight as they liked it to be. In fact, all other parties and their prior shareholders, such as Bazaries, and Mollahs know that very well. The interesting component of this new specific situation is the “Green Movement”, the component whose actual influence and power play is not yet measurable, al-be-it significant. The real question is: whether all those prior stakeholders ( Rafsanjanies, Mollahs, and Bazaraies) will try the put their stakes on the diminishing power of Khamenehis, and Sepah, or do they play the “Green Movement’s” card right!
Oct 16, 2009 - 11:20 am 14. Surprised Iranian:Dear Michael,
Like others, I read the news which is widely spread by you. Every where I looked, the source of the news was either you or Tabnak! The rumor made lots of question in readers’ mind regardless of their nationalities.
In your previous you post you said :
“but this report comes from a person who is in a position to know such things”
“but the source is excellent”
If you knew the source of the news and you trust him/her, why are you now denying reliability of the source and the news. and you(yourself!) call your news that is from your excellent source “A RUMOR” !!!
I can’t believe you’re saying : “In fact, I have never claimed to know anything about Khamenei’s death, and I still don’t know anything”
you don’t look like a senseless person, and you mustn’t have been drunk. So the question is what is your true intentions ?
Evaluation of the Iranian society environment after releasing such a news? Are you with Iranian government and against people? Do you want to discourage Iranian people and see their face when the news is completely rejected? People who put their lives in the way of fighting against dictatorship and obtaining freedom, people who became a symbol, an exemplary for other nations because of their courageous and valiant stand against dictatorship and betrayal.
What was your intentions ? That is the question
Oct 16, 2009 - 12:50 pm 15. Payam:There’s a farsi story called “The Lying Shepherd”. It is about a shepherd who lies a few times about a wolf attacking his herd because he wanted attention!
Oct 16, 2009 - 3:03 pm 16. David W. Lincoln:Then one day … you guessed it … a wolf attacks the sheep and the shepherd runs to the village and cries out: “Wolf!”, but nobody cares and the wolf kills all of his sheep.
I was so happy when I first read the news and started fantasizing going back (think Nickolas Cage as Yuri Orlov, kissing Gorbachov’s face on his TV, in “Lord of War”.)
I just feel betrayed and needed to vent.
And you, my friend, Mr Ledeen have to be careful not to loose any more credibility, especially when you are associated with the same rumor in 2007.
Ryan Mauro, earlier today, linked to this: http://english.pravda.ru/world/asia/15-10-2009/109910-khamenei-0
Curiouser and curiouser.
Oct 16, 2009 - 4:00 pm 17. Alireza:Whenever I visit NY Times site I open number story links and then decide which one I read first. The only exception is when Roger Cohen posts a new commentary. That’s is the only time I must read his first. I truly like this guy, and I recommend you people to motivate yourself in willing to open your mind to some real life realities. His last article is indeed worth reading. Meanwhile I think he might expect some expose articles against him that is not a Jew and all along he has been an Iranian Shia pretending to be Jew. Here is the link:
Oct 17, 2009 - 7:27 am 18. Wadeusaf:http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/16/opinion/16iht-edcohen.html?em
Wow, Mr. Ledeen. You have more influence on events in Iran than the entire Obama administration. That speaks volumes, unfortunately. Is it too late to say something about Turkey?
Oct 17, 2009 - 8:06 am 19. Michael Ledeen:The excellent source said Khamenei was in a coma. I believe he was, and, at least as of yesterday, still is in a coma. Then there were rumors that he was dead. The story about the rumors was not mine, I never claimed to know anything about it, and I do not believe it. I just reported the statement, made in a bulletin from the opposition Green Path of Hope, saying that bazaaris in Tehran were spreading the rumor.
My intentions? To report accurately and try to understand what is going on.
Oct 17, 2009 - 10:54 am 20. Amir:today the official site of the supreme leader shows some new pics of him in a meeting with Senegal’s President: http://www.leader.ir/langs/fa/index.php?p=photo&albumId=762&img=14356_688.jpg
It means that you were wrong Mr Ledeen? or simply the pics are totally fake?
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Nov 19, 2009 - 2:58 pm