Several thoughtful people have commented on an unusual element in the Iranian revolutionary movement, aka “The Green Path of Hope.” Although there is a troika (Mousavi, Karroubi and Khatami) that inspires many of the movement’s participants, there seems to be a lack of top-down leadership. Indeed, Mousavi has been at pains to say that the people are the true leaders, that he is not creating a political movement but a “social network,” and that the strength of the Green Path derives from the spontaneous and creative actions of millions of Iranians.
It sounds a lot like the thesis put forward in the recent book, The Starfish and the Spider, which argues that top-down organizations are less successful than those that give maximum freedom to their people. If you decapitate a spider, it dies, but if you lop off an arm of a starfish, it regenerates. In like manner, despite a massive crackdown from the Iranian regime–thousands of arrests (now termed “kidnappings” by Iranian Tweeters), scores of executions, mass rape and other forms of torture, show trials and stern intimidation from political and military leaders, judges and clerics, the Green Path moves on, with its next publicly announced challenge to the regime set for December 7th. Meanwhile, demonstrations and strikes continue across the country.
In the runup to the June 12th “elections” (at which time I noted that the Islamic Republic of Iran does not have elections, it has circuses) I said that one could not imagine a less charismatic leader than Mir Hossein Mousavi. His campaign appearances were lackluster, his debate with Ahmadinejad unimpressive, and his demeanor bespoke what he was: an architect and artist, a former bureaucrat who had left government twenty years before. If there was a charismatic figure in the campaign against Ahmadinejad (whose charisma is well known), it was Mrs. Mousavi. And that, I insisted, was itself a revolutionary development in a theocratic tyranny based on misogyny. It wasn’t only her presence that shook up the Shi’ite establishment and inspired the crowds, but the things she said, notably her attitude toward head coverings. She wears the veil, she said, and she believes that all Muslim women should. But–and here is the revolutionary message–if a woman doesn’t want to wear it, she should be free to go without.
So it was that Mousavi, quite unexpectedly, found himself created the leader of a revolutionary mass movement. In that sense, I entirely agree with Mehdi Khalaji when he says that if you want to understand what’s going on inside Iran today, don’t look to Mousavi, Karroubi and Khatami; look at the people. The movement came into being around the troika (in which Mousavi is first among equals). And the movement by now has an ideology, a strategy, and a lot of momentum. It aims to bring down the Islamic Republic–that is the clear meaning of the nightly rooftop chants against Khamenei–and replace it with a new government that will be independent of the Shi’ite elite. It intends to do it without violence, insofar as that is possible, and it is counting on the force of numbers to accomplish its mission.
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24 Comments
1. Pajamas Media » Iran’s ‘Starfish Revolution’:[...] Read the entire post here. [...]
Nov 10, 2009 - 3:01 am 2. MarkT:Great article Michael.
Nov 10, 2009 - 7:06 am 3. Rocker:Of course obama won’t throw his (im)moral weight behind the brave Iranian people who want a government like ours. obama wants to change our government into something less than it is. These are dark days and obama is on the wrong side of history. Let’s pray the American people wake up in time to put a halt to this slide into despotism that we are on. If not, may God help us.
The posture of western “leadership” is best explained, I believe, as a function of moral cowardice, not ignorance. I think even the Obama administration and it’s far left inner circle recognize that Iran is on the brink of revolution, but it’s easier to sit on the sidelines than deal with the consequences of acknowledging, let alone openly supporting, the people of Iran. Sad, but true.
Nov 10, 2009 - 7:19 am 4. BrianH:Seems like the gist of your thoughts here, Dr. Ledeen, is that we can add “Washington” to your list of capitals from which tyrants friendly to the mullahs work to prop them up.
Nov 10, 2009 - 7:27 am 5. Smart Mobs » Blog Archive » The Starfish Revolution? in Iran:[...] are talking about the Iranian uprisings of 2009 in smartmobbing terms. Here is part of such an analysis by Michael Ledeen: Several thoughtful people have commented on an unusual element in the Iranian revolutionary [...]
Nov 10, 2009 - 8:06 am 6. Tresco:It is very nice that they are resisting their government. They DO however need to get off the freaking dime and overthrow those ass clowns or there is going to be hell for all of us to pay because they failed to get the job done.
Nov 10, 2009 - 8:11 am 7. Ruebacca:Great article.
Obama is missing the Forrest for the trees. A responsible, respectful Iranian republic can have nuclear weapons. The French Republic has nuclear weapons and the H-bomb to boot. We don’t care because France is a pillar of civilization. History remembers the Berlin wall falling not the arms control agreements.
A responsible, respectful Iran republic would be a huge boon to world peace. Hezbollah and Hamas would wither on the vine. Syria would give Israel a peace accord. Iran would work to quite Afghanistan and Iraq. Most importantly the Iranian people would be free and free to contribute to world culture as they had done in the past.
Obama is a moron. He wants good relations with the world evil actors. He needs to condemn those helping the Iranian security crack down.
God Bless the Iranian people. Make the sacrifices needed for freedom, it is worth it.
Nov 10, 2009 - 8:12 am 8. Professor Guvinoff:Parallel worlds. The “realists” indulge in abstractions and rehash conventional verbiage, while the revolutionary forces push their cause in relative silence.
This is not the first time the ignorant proves to be more vocal than the wise. Whenever the POTUS is morally paralyzed, proceed in spite of him! The defeat of the theo-thugs from within is certainly more appealing than their defeat by military means.
Nov 10, 2009 - 8:42 am 9. The Starfish Revolution? « FREE IRAN NOW!:[...] Starfish Revolution? 10. November 2009 — Mr. Moe Michael Ledeen über die Bewegung im Iran: Several thoughtful people have commented on an unusual element in the Iranian revolutionary [...]
Nov 10, 2009 - 9:02 am 10. Kourosh:Please discard the previous posting. It wasn’t completed yet.
These are the facts in regard to the people uprising in Iran:
1) It is being conducted mostly by young , energetic, freedom loving, and anti-ideology except for the democracy crowd.
2) It respects Mousavi and others who claim they support the people, but only to get its message across.
3) It is a self-motivated process implementing different groups. While they all believe in the tenet of democracy and separation of religion from the government, they act independent of each other.
4) The young people who are also fearless, are conducting the first educated revolution in the history of mankind, and intentionally are not creating an idol.
5) They have designed a genius strategy which is dynamic and as such doesn’t carry the signs of rigid and static ideological based revolutions.
6) So far they have been able to accomplish the following, which step-by-step dismantling of Khomeinism backwardness:
a. They started with questioning the result of the election, with a very peaceful demonstration.
b. At the moment that Ahmadi-Neajd tried to dismiss the uprising by calling freedom seeking young people: “Khas O Khashak” (Straw and Dust), people called him off and demonstrate against him. Mainly incapacitating Ahmadi-Nejad and his administration.
c. They attack one of the fundamental tenant of the Islamists (Friday Prayer), and at the same time introduced their displeasure with Russians. They also started chanting: “Down with the Dictator” at the same time.
d. Next opportunity they got, they dismissed another very fundamental tenet of Khomeinsim, so-called “Gods Day” (Jerusalem Day), and demonstrated to the world that they don’t acre about Palestinian Terrorists in Gaza, and Lebanese counter part in Lebanon by using slogans such as: “No Gaza, No Lebanon, my life is only for Iran”. At the same time continue their “Down with Dictator” slogan, pointing at the supreme leader himself and completely ignoring Ahmadi-Nejad and making him an irrelevant figure.
e. Next which was last week, on the occasion of hostage taking anniversary, for which Khomeinie called it 2nd revolution, people took to the street, and not only they didn’t chant any slogan against US which is customery of IRI, they continued with their “Down with Russia: slogan, and add to it “Down with Khameni” directly attacking the symbol of Khomeinst backwardness and dictatorship
When one thinks all these heroic demonstrations are conducted against back drop of Khomeinist attacking , jailing, torturing, and raping these young people and their families, then you come to the same conclusion as I have, calling the Iran Uprising of 2009: “”A Genous Act and the most educated Revolution in Human History” , comparable only to US independence Revolution, which is so far a revolution which ahs benefited the man kind.
It is only up to Mr. Obama and other leaders of the West, to demonstrate they really believe in freedom and democracy, or interested only in resources of Iran by following the backward Carterism.
Nov 10, 2009 - 10:15 am 11. David W. Lincoln:By that count, Michael, the Chief Deformed Soul in the Oval Office, and his hordes of deformed souls, zombies, and other ilk with their paws on the levers of power inside the Beltway, they have made themselves illegitimate.
A US government in exile would have the credibility that the aforementioned threw out, and would strengthen the co-ordinated foreign
policies of the most advanced democracies within the British Commonwealth, as referred to by Conrad Black here, http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=2165496 as well as the hoped for similar phenomenon of those countries which were behind the iron curtain (plus anyone else who wants to join in) with the foreign policy based upon the Borjomi Declaration.
The prize is there for the taking, who has the chutzpah to reach for it?
Nov 10, 2009 - 10:19 am 12. Welcome | Project on Middle East Democracy:[...] [...]
Nov 10, 2009 - 1:10 pm 13. Andria:Thank you for this excellent article. I look forward to this historic event.
Nov 10, 2009 - 4:11 pm 14. David W. Lincoln:Michael, changing gears, isn’t the anniversary of the Marines coming up? As written here: http://news.discovery.com/history/marine-corps-celebrates-234-years.html
Nov 10, 2009 - 7:42 pm 15. Michael Ledeen:yup, it was today. i’m still drinking heavily. knob creek. you oughta try it.
Nov 10, 2009 - 9:24 pm 16. Uzi:Dr. Ledeen,
If the overwhelming majority of the people of Iran hate the regime and want to replace it with a consensual human-rights respecting constitutional order, doesn’t that negate the theory that an Israeli or US attack on Iran’s nuclear sites would only cause the Iranian people to rally in support of their government, thereby strengthening the regime? Isn’t it more likely that the people of Iran are too far gone for this regime ever to regain their support?
Nov 10, 2009 - 11:49 pm 17. Michael Ledeen:indeed.
Nov 11, 2009 - 7:56 am 18. David W. Lincoln:On that note, the French were welcomed with open
Nov 11, 2009 - 9:57 am 19. Mike C:arms by Spaniards, when the Spanish Inquisition
was ended by French military action. I seem to recall a fictionalized version of this in “The Pit & The Pendulum” by Edgar Allan Poe.
Although the executive branch sets foreign policy in the American system, it does so by consent of the governed – not by Divine Right.
Is there any way that We The People can support these brave Persians (I have a Persian friend who always bristles at being called “Iranian”) who are putting their lives on the line for constitutional democracy?
Nov 11, 2009 - 3:06 pm 20. Ion Enache » Blog Archive » Articles of Note: November 2009:[...] • A text arguing that the recent uprisings in Iran should be analyzed in relation to the thesis advanced in “The Starfish and the Spider” #; [...]
Nov 11, 2009 - 3:25 pm 21. Ion Enache » Blog Archive » Articles of Note: November 2009:[...] • A text arguing that the recent uprisings in Iran should be analyzed in relation to the thesis advanced in “The Starfish and the Spider” #; [...]
Nov 11, 2009 - 3:31 pm 22. Networked organisations: the starfish revolution | SMLXL - Engagement Marketing and Communication principles from Alan Moore:[...] Samples from Smartmobs and orginated by Michael Leeden [...]
Nov 12, 2009 - 4:39 am 23. Monkeymagic » The Starfish Revolution? – Iranian mobs, smart mobs – or just a large group of angry people:[...] here November 13th 2009 | Comments(0) | Asides on metaphor mobs politics revolution [...]
Nov 13, 2009 - 9:01 am 24. If They Were Out To Get Us, What Would They Do Differently? - MacAoidh’s blog - RedState:[...] This set Iran expert Michael Ledeen off to write a brilliant piece recognizing the deep and wide character of the budding Iranian revolution and the colossal opportunity it presents for changing the world – if only our president would take steps to encourage that revolution rather than coddle the regime representing the most acute threat to America’s interests on the planet. [...]
Nov 13, 2009 - 8:59 pm