94 Comments

1. Nomenklatura:

The only Northern liberal Democratic presidential candidates since 1964 have been Humphrey, McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis and Kerry.

Comparing how they did in Gallup polling in July versus the eventual electoral result:

- Mondale and McGovern suffered swings toward the Republicans of 2% and 4% respectively, which in their cases didn’t matter much because they started and stayed a devastating 20% or so behind

- In the closer elections Humphrey (1968) suffered a July-November swing to the Republicans of 6%, Dukakis (1988) 16%, Kerry (2004) 9.5%.

In each case in the fall the Northern liberal’s support fell off sharply, when the public found out more about them and the policies they supported.

As a Northern liberal (and he’s a very orthodox, rather left of center one at that) this 40-year history suggests that Obama would need to have a solid 10% lead in the polls now just to have an even chance in November, quite apart from any racial considerations (which if they materialize on polling day may well cut both ways).

Jul 26, 2008 - 7:53 am 2. starling:

“Event study ” is the term of art for an empirical analyses of the impact of unanticipated or newly disseminated information on market indexes or the share prices of individual firms. There are dozens, if not hundreds, of studies published each year in academic journals that examine the impacts of a wide variety of “events.”

And while the Intrade volume is probably too low to be considered an efficient market, the event itself, i.e. BHO’s totally excellent overseas adventure, would seem to be an event worthy of consideration.

For the last four years I have semi-regulary I regularly follow the prediction markets at Intrade and the Iowa Electronic Markets. For fun, I also like to examine the impact of geo-political events on global markets, particularly on commodity prices, e.g. oil and gas. My preferred method is to look over several charts for the same event and see if they agree or diverge. I have yet to do this for the BHO World Tour and have no prior expectation about what the effect ought to be.

That said, your observation that Intrade has caused shares of BHO Global to dip is interesting and worthy of closer examination. My guess is that the odds-makers agree with sentiments I saw expressed at National Review and other conservative outlets over the past week i.e. that in general, being loved by Europe and the world (let alone by 100’s of thousand of excited Germans) is not necessarily a positive thing for a US presidential candidate and that, in particular, BHO’s “We are the World” rhetoric is not going to play well, not even in Peoria.

Jul 26, 2008 - 8:31 am 3. Teresita:

The close polling data will have the effect of lulling McCain into running a safe campaign that tries to preserve what he has, hoping the independents will swing his way in October and put him over the top, while Obama can afford to take risk after risk because he’s young and he’ll be back, even if McCain wins this time. But the race is really fifty different races, and three months is a lifetime in Presidential politics. Anything can happen. There could be an “incident” with Iran. Barack could go with Hillary after all and set up the “Dream Ticket”.

Jul 26, 2008 - 8:40 am 4. Peter Grynch:

I’ve heard his German speech referred to as the “Ich Bin Ein Beginner” speech.

McCain’s dilemma is that he desperately fears offending anybody, and as a result he makes Walter Mondale look dynamic and decisive by comparison.

Conservatives have no candidate in this election.

Jul 26, 2008 - 8:54 am 5. NahnCee:

I think historically that American voters, Democrat and Republican, get really annoyed when they perceive that outsiders are trying to influence our elections. See the backlash against Yurp trying to cram Kerry down our throats, for example.

THEN if the reports filtering back are not only that Europe and the Middle East are wildly enamored of him but that he’s also apologizing for our uncivilized barbarity, then of course that will be frowned upon back home (see the reaction to the Dixie Chicks’ apology in England for example).

I’m hopeful that more and more voters are starting to percolate through their miasma of not-caring to get the overall view that Obama is bad news. I just don’t think that a majority of voters follow these things, but sort of soak up their impressions by osmosis so that they’re left with an overall “yay” or “nay” feeling.

The overall feeling that Obama will leave with American voters may be one of apologizing to Europe’s elite, snubbing American soldiers, and pandering to Arab terrorists … which would leave a long-term “ick” result.

Jul 26, 2008 - 8:58 am 6. dla:

The US media is in the middle of a long orgasm with Obama. But the voters aren’t. The US media is constantly telling us that we want change and that we hate all things “Bush”, but the McCain/Obama polls say something different.

I really believe that the American voter is getting smart enough to not pay attention to the American media anymore. It used to be that only the National Enquiror would have headlines like “Elvis back from the dead with amazing new UFO sex diet”, but thats pretty much the norm from all the media outlets. There are of course the old, soggy-brained, 60’s generation that still reads and believes the newspapers, but their political power is waining (which is why Hillary is out).

Political pundits believe that voters view Obama as a big risk – and I think they (both) are correct. This means that Obama will have to move closer to the center and I believe that will damage his “change” message beyond repair. Without “change”, how will he distinguish himself from McCain?

In the final analysis McCain’s seemingly inept campaign may be declared “brilliant” for allowing Obama, like a gulf-coast storm, to blow himself out, before November.

Jul 26, 2008 - 9:41 am 7. Reverend Jeremia Wright:

God D)(** Ammerrikkka!!!! Obama ‘08

Jul 26, 2008 - 9:42 am 8. james wilson:

Intrade is very good. It’s not hard to understand why.
Obama is an airhead, but his handlers are surprisingly good. They are capable of learning, he is not. His success or failure will be the result of the tug-of-war between his handlers and his ego. I’ll let intrade predict that one. They just gave a clue to his handlers.

Jul 26, 2008 - 10:02 am 9. Starko:

I haven’t been following or reading about Obama’s whirlwind tour. But even just catching the sound bites (and the adoring manner in which the events were reported), it seemed clear to me that this plays extremely well to the elite left which was firmly in his camp to begin with.

Not to say that there aren’t more centrist and conservative voters that hated Bush’s foreign policy, but how many of them think Obama’s approach is the answer?

What will be very interesting is watching the Intrade numbers after some debates.

Jul 26, 2008 - 10:04 am 10. Eggplant:

How much money would it cost George Soros to set Intrade’s B. Hussein price to what ever Soros wants?

If the number can be easily manipulated then it has no value as a popularity indicator (like a Zoby poll).

Jul 26, 2008 - 11:55 am 11. Eggplant:

I should add that I suspect B. Hussein has “Jumped the Shark”. His international road trip was supposed to be a coronation but wasn’t. However we won’t know that Hussein has Jumped the Shark until after the Democrat Party Convention.

I’m hoping that Hussein will “Do a McGovern”. Typically when a demagogue’s godhood comes into doubt then his popularity will crash. Unfortunately we live in “interesting times” and people are afraid. We’re in the situation where a skilled demagogue can cause terrible harm.

Jul 26, 2008 - 12:18 pm 12. Dave in NC:

As I recall, McGovern was an extreme-leftist whose appeal was to the college kids (anti-war commies) and flower children, and who ran against an unpopular president, who was HATED by the media.

How’d that work for you, Dems?

Jul 26, 2008 - 12:43 pm 13. Charles:

The elephant bar makes the interesting point that one of obama’s brothers is a muslim. but that’s not the interesting part. the brother is his younger brother by his father’s first wife. that means obama’s dad was a polygamist. not a problem for democrats because after all the sins of the father are not visited on the sons. (actually isaiah has an interesting discussion of this )but mormans have been smeared for less.

Jul 26, 2008 - 12:49 pm 14. Charles:

Whoops. Not Isaiah but Ezekial. The logical progression from the premise sounds very greek to me. It makes for an interesting read–& not too long. Its a refinement of “the sins of the fathers are passed down to the 3rd generation” that comes from the pentatuch. Anyhow, you can find the whole chapter here.

1 The word of the LORD came to me: 2 “What do you people mean by quoting this proverb about the land of Israel:
” ‘The fathers eat sour grapes,
and the children’s teeth are set on edge’?

Jul 26, 2008 - 12:59 pm 15. Dave:

He forgot to wait until after he was elected and sworn in!

Other folks were President BEFORE they made their overseas tours and were either cheered or booed in foreign countries. That means them furriners got to say whether they liked or disliked whom we elected. Their perogative.

By making this kind of tour as a candidate, them furriners (through no particular fault of their own) are in the position of telling us whom we should and should not elect. Whoever is identified with that is bound to alienate at least some voters. And if a candidate ever gets identified with them furriners telling us whom we HAVE to elect, either he is toast or we really are doomed.

I am reminded of 1996. A recently defeated Benjamin Netanyahu was in the US right after Bill Clinton had done everything but stuff ballot boxes on behalf of his opponent, Ehud Barak. Since Clinton had done that, “Bibi” was asked whom he would support in the US Presidential election. Without hesitation he replied, “I shall support the winner, of course!”

Netanyahu was being astute. Obama is being a smart-ass.

Jul 26, 2008 - 1:07 pm 16. wretchard:

Whatever BHO Senior did might be interesting but hardly ascribable to Barack Obama Jr. You can’t choose your relatives. But you can choose your friends, and policies and personal behavior. So in this particular case maybe its better to focus on what the candidate did (or didn’t do) than on the shennanigans of his dad.

Part, but by no means all of BHO’s appeal is the attraction of the exotic. In an earlier post I recounted an incident in 1910 when Virginia Woolf boarded the HMS Dreadnought posing as interpreter for the entourage of “Sultan of Zanzibar” who pretended to inspect the ship with a bunch of British actors in theatrical costume. There is nothing a certain audience wants better than the stage version of the real thing, not knowing what the real thing is anyway. The British Accent Guy, the Irishman with the vest, potato nose and leprechaun boots. I am constantly amazed at how disappointed people at hearing me speak English. I think I would be much further ahead in life if I styled myself as an exotic. Fabio always does better than Larry. So I’m not sure that emphasizing the strangeness of BHO’s dad will do anything but attract a certain section of public who derive a frisson from proximity with the novel.

Jul 26, 2008 - 1:18 pm 17. rab:

BO stinks when he promotes “one world”, says he is a “citizen of the world”, desires equality of results for all people and countries and denigrates America’s contribution to freedom and liberty.

Jul 26, 2008 - 1:33 pm 18. NahnCee:

Wretchard, you don’t think it would matter to American voters if Obama-Daddy was a serial polygamist with a bunch of Muslim wives and a gazillion Muslim half-siblings waiting to ooze out of the walls once he’s elected?

The other question I’ve seen raised in the brouhaha about his birth certificate is whether or not he’s legitimate. Never mind if he’s black or white or Presbyterian or heterosexual — is he a bastard, legally, and is that something we want listed on the resume of the next President of the United States when he goes to meet the Pope or the Dali Lama?

Jul 26, 2008 - 2:12 pm 19. Charles:

Whatever BHO Senior did might be interesting but hardly ascribable to Barack Obama Jr.
////////////
this is ezekial’s point. Of the father ezekial says:

Will such a man live? He will not! Because he has done all these detestable things, he will surely be put to death and his blood will be on his own head.

14 “But suppose this son has a son who sees all the sins his father commits, and though he sees them, he does not do such things:

He will not die for his father’s sin; he will surely live. 18 But his father will die for his own sin, ….

19 “Yet you ask, ‘Why does the son not share the guilt of his father?’ Since the son has done what is just and right and has been careful to keep all my decrees, he will surely live. 20 The soul who sins is the one who will die. The son will not share the guilt of the father, nor will the father share the guilt of the son. The righteousness of the righteous man will be credited to him, and the wickedness of the wicked will be charged against him.

Jul 26, 2008 - 2:19 pm 20. whiskey:

There’s been speculation that the issue that “staffers” are afraid of the Press digging in regarding the New Republic story (yes, I know) would be drug use. It would certainly fit the candidate’s past admitted use during High School, and be the “explosive” issue that Hillary claimed to have in reserve.

It would also explain the erratic behavior of Obama, perhaps his refusal to meet with the troops at Landstuhl and Ramstein. I.E. he was high at the time. It would not be the first time, given JFK.

What happens if that is true and becomes the “open secret” in the Press?

Jul 26, 2008 - 2:44 pm 21. Teresita:

Charles: that means obama’s dad was a polygamist. not a problem for democrats because after all the sins of the father are not visited on the sons.

That should also not be a problem for Christians in general, not just Democrats. Ezekiel 18:20 The son shall not bear the iniquity of the father, neither shall the father bear the iniquity of the son: the righteousness of the righteous shall be upon him, and the wickedness of the wicked shall be upon him.

In other words, do good now, and you are good.

Jul 26, 2008 - 2:50 pm 22. Doug:

Stuff of the kind you mention would eliminate you if you were a white male Republican, Nahncee,
but this is different.

As Uncle Walter would say:
“That’s the way it is.”
—
One world? Obama’s on a different planet.
By John R. Bolton

The senator’s Berlin speech was radical and naive.

SEN. BARACK OBAMA said in an interview the day after his Berlin speech that it “allowed me to send a message to the American people that the judgments I have made and the judgments I will make are ones that are going to result in them being safer.”

(another “Gee, Aren’t I Great” moment)
ht – Dennis Miller

Jul 26, 2008 - 3:06 pm 23. j-damn:

And the Dem desperation starts already.

*The close polling data will have the effect of lulling McCain into running a safe campaign*

Right. Sure. That’s why McCain immediately pounced with the attack ads this week.

* that tries to preserve what he has, hoping the independents will swing his way in October and put him over the top, while Obama can afford to take risk after risk because he’s young and he’ll be back*

Just like Al “The Real President” Gore and John F’n Kerry? Right. He loses this time, he’s done, unless he wants to be Governor of Illinois. He’s no Richard Nixon.

*But the race is really fifty different races,*

Except for all those states that Obama or McCain have no chance of winning. So it’s more like 15 different races.

* and three months is a lifetime in Presidential politics.*

The only correct thing you have typed.

* Anything can happen. There could be an “incident” with Iran.*

Such an incident would help McCain.

* Barack could go with Hillary after all and set up the “Dream Ticket”.*

A dream for Republicans. Obama is toast.

Jul 26, 2008 - 3:19 pm 24. Triton'sPolarTiger:

NahnCee,

“The overall feeling that Obama will leave with American voters may be one of apologizing to Europe’s elite, snubbing American soldiers, and pandering to Arab terrorists … which would leave a long-term “ick” result.”

It’d be interesting to see what’d happen if McCain made a trip overseas after the convention – more or less visiting the same places Obama graced… opting instead for the hospital visits, of course – no doubt he’d be greated by much less enthusiasm by the Yurpies and the oil ticks, all the while being accused of being in Israel’s hip pocket – and we’d see night after night of it presented by breathless anchors, imagining they’re burying the guy they foisted on conservatives in the first place…

That stubborn fighter jock just might win going away…

Triton

Jul 26, 2008 - 3:23 pm 25. Triton'sPolarTiger:

Oops.

he’d be greated = he’d be greeted

Jul 26, 2008 - 3:26 pm 26. Stephen:

“The close polling data will have the effect of lulling McCain into running a safe campaign that tries to preserve what he has, hoping the independents will swing his way in October and put him over the top, while Obama can afford to take risk after risk because he’s young and he’ll be back, even if McCain wins this time.”

Other than Richard Nixon I can’t think of a losing Presidential candidate who has been given a second shot by his party, at least not in recent times. If BHO fails, much of the Democrat party will be driven mad with frustration and disappointment. Too many of them will blame the candidate for him to make a comeback as a Presidential candidate, although he would certainly have as much of a claim on the limelight as previous failed candidates.

After eight years of Republican control of the Presidency it is the natural time for those important middle-of-the-road voters to hand the Oval Office to a Democrat. I believe they would throw out the Republicans if only the Democrats hadn’t nominated such a colossal flake, and if the Republicans hadn’t nominated such a RINO as McCain.

As far as safe campaigning by McCain, it makes perfect sense for him to shut up when the spotlight is on BHO. He is smart enough to know that the more exposure BHO gets with white working-class Democrats, the more likely they are to give the election to McCain.

Jul 26, 2008 - 3:39 pm 27. Teresita:

Other than Richard Nixon I can’t think of a losing Presidential candidate who has been given a second shot by his party, at least not in recent times.

Al Gore could have broken that streak in 2004 simply by running a “Re-elect Al Gore” campaign, since it is Democrat orthodoxy that Bush won the 2000 election five votes to four. Even this year, the nomination was Gore’s for the asking, but he didn’t ask.

Jul 26, 2008 - 4:27 pm 28. cjm:

i like sports analogies, especially for understanding the dynamics of a polical battle. don’t call it a race because it’s not — it’s much more akin to one of the combative sports. a poorly skilled boxer with size will try and deliver a knockout punch; which might work with another skilled fighter but will often leave them open for a skilful counter. this is what happened to hillary. mccain is working away at obama with jabs and crosses, cutting him and causing doubt. you don’t think the line about obama preferring to lose a war than an election didn’t open a cut above obabam’s eye?

wretchard, was it you who wrote about a bullying marine getting shredded by a smaller sailor/soldier who actually knew how to box? the same thing is going on now. i am reminded of a scene from a martin cruz smith book (”Stallion’s Gate”) where an older service man is involved with a younger fighter. the young man is no pushover and the older guy is not going to beat him by superior conditioning and skill. what the older guy notices is a scar on the younger man’s abdomen, a weakened spot. the older guy keys off on this spot and keeps at it and at it until the younger guy folds.

i will remind you people of one salient fact that is overlooked universally, perhaps out of politeness. mccain is a stone cold killer, in the literal sense of the word. he has taken life both from afar and in close quarter combat. he has absorbed the blows of a fanatical enemy and spit in their eyes. so you tell me, whose odds are better in the fall? put your money on the pansy, who knows maybe he *will* win. but i see blood on the mat already, and it’s not coming from mccain. for f’s sake obama couldn’t even win the dem nomination, so how in the hell does he win the general election?

and the above calculations don’t even begin to take into account the effect bush can have on the contest. every one hates him and that is liberating. leviathan is moving, ever faster, rising to destiny’s call, unseen until the surface is breached.

what are the chances hillary’s people have photos of the annointed one in the rack with some groupie? what are the chances they have people in his organization? what are the chances the msm is wrong again?

sorry for the scattershot approach (to this post) but there is just so much hand wringing about mccain, it pisses me off. if i am wrong in november you can mock me as you wish, but if i am right you can…well, let’s wait for the election

Jul 26, 2008 - 4:30 pm 29. Charles:

Teresita:

Ezekiel 18:20 The son shall not bear the iniquity of the father, neither shall the father bear the iniquity of the son: the righteousness of the righteous shall be upon him, and the wickedness of the wicked shall be upon him.

Teresita:
In other words, do good now, and you are good.

////////////
This is pretty much true for Jews. However, they don’t really believe in an afterlife. That’s why you’ll sometimes see the spouse of the deceased at a Jewish funeral –climb on the coffin of their dead spouse and cry in anguish. Its not just that their spouse is gone. Its also that that they don’t know where their deceased spouse went.

For Christians there is an afterlife. But ya gotta believe in Jesus.You believe in Jesus and he imputes his righteousness to you. Its a righteousness that comes from outside of you. No good works that you can do will earn that righteousness.

Jul 26, 2008 - 5:26 pm 30. Teresita:

Charles: You believe in Jesus and he imputes his righteousness to you. Its a righteousness that comes from outside of you. No good works that you can do will earn that righteousness.

So much the worse for the theory (stated above) that Barack Obama would not be fit to greet the Pope or Dolly Llama on account of his father’s alleged polygamy, or his brother’s practice of Islam, or even what Barack did. Christ inserts his own perfect past in place of Barack Obama’s checkered past and suddenly Barack is fit to greet even our Father in heaven.

Jul 26, 2008 - 6:50 pm 31. Alexis:

Stephen:

The most interesting aspect of the Obama revolution (and it is a revolution) is that his followers are poised to take over the Democratic Party’s organizational apparatus. This is certainly true if Obama is elected, but it is also true if Obama gets above 40% of the vote. The fact is that his supporters are energized and he can direct them to challenge the old guard for control of the Party. And chances are, he will win.

If Obama loses by more than ten points, it is likely that the Democratic Party will be leaderless. And that would be a good thing; the Democratic Party would then be vibrant for the first time in decades. The Clinton dynasty is dethroned and it is unlikely to regain the power it once had.

If Obama loses by less than two points, he will almost certainly gain control of the Party to such an extent that anybody other than Obama would be considered to be an upstart. Although Obama will be remembered as the man who freed the Democratic Party from the Clinton’s dynasty’s control, Obama will almost certainly try to hollow out the Party to turn it into his own fan club.

One fate that may lie in store for the Democratic Party is to be trapped into a situation for the next twenty years where it cannot nominate anybody other than Barack Obama, and Barack Obama keeps on losing over and over again. Senator Obama’s followers would become so bureaucratically entrenched within the Party that even the sentiments of most Democrats won’t make a dent. Imagine the entire Democratic Party structured like the old Chicago machine, except with the national leadership in perpetual opposition.

And the sad thing is, Adalai Stevenson was actually a better orator…

Jul 26, 2008 - 7:17 pm 32. wretchard:

The most interesting aspect of the Obama revolution (and it is a revolution) is that his followers are poised to take over the Democratic Party’s organizational apparatus. This is certainly true if Obama is elected, but it is also true if Obama gets above 40% of the vote. The fact is that his supporters are energized and he can direct them to challenge the old guard for control of the Party. And chances are, he will win.

This should be the news. But even more important is the underlying reason why a showman like Obama can do this. Many posts ago I observed that with the decline of the hard left and the invasion of its ideological core by the peripheral forces of sexual pleaders, faddists and utopians its memetic DNA had decayed to the point where an 8th century religion became competitive with its message. Plainly put, neither Obama nor Osama would have much appeal in the left in the days of Lenin, Mao and Borodin. But in today’s Big Top it is not only possible but natural for a man like Barack Obama to take over the party.

I don’t the Democratic party will be rid of the Clintons and BHOs of the world until it recreates a set of rigorous core beliefs. The tatters they have from 1968, which seems the foundational year the movement which is culminating in BHO, then we can only expect one succession of entertainers to follow the other.

This has actually happened in Third World. Eva Person in Argentina, Joseph Estrada in the Philippines — there have been a host of places where leaders are elected purely on celebrity by a National Equirered electorate. It’s slef correcting in the end. Estrada was driven out of office — though by someone no better and possibly worse, but the bug for electing rocxk stars probably ended there.

Jul 26, 2008 - 7:31 pm 33. mark_b:

Teresita-

You are often accused of off topic comments and being argumentative. At times your arguments vary widely within a short time span. However, although you attack from all sides you do not seem to go too far down any one path (well, usually). I believe you actually are not too far away from the majority of posters here. you just like to chip away at rough edges.

You mention Taoist study in your blog. Your arguments seem to fit in with the Tai Chi or Kung Fu fighting styles.

Don’t take any of this too seriously, my entire exposure to Taoism was reading “The Tao of Pooh” several times. It was a gift from my wifes friend prior to deployment.

It was an entertaining read, and it actually saved me from Captain’s mast at least once.

Proverbs 27:17 As iron sharpens iron, so one man sharpens another.

About the women on combat ships position the Navy had. In the 1980’s it was obviously wrong and they knew it needed fixed. Any billet that was challenging had equal numbers of men and women trying to get in, and when the sea/shore rotations were lopsided, that always meant that men were trying to get the few shore billets that were filled by women or the women were trying to get the few sea billets filled by men.

At the time, the Navy had figured out how to fix their racial inequities. Charges of racism were taken seriously, and dealt with harshly. Charges that were found to be unsubstantiated were dealt with equally harshly. All the Navy had to do was decide that women could be on combat ships and then enforce rules fairly to make it work.

The Nimitz Class carriers were “integrated” after I left and the Navy has better sailors to show for it.

Oh, and Debian. Ubuntu on the laptops.

Jul 26, 2008 - 8:12 pm 34. Stephen:

“One fate that may lie in store for the Democratic Party is to be trapped into a situation for the next twenty years where it cannot nominate anybody other than Barack Obama, and Barack Obama keeps on losing over and over again. Senator Obama’s followers would become so bureaucratically entrenched within the Party that even the sentiments of most Democrats won’t make a dent.”

This is such an appealing scenario that I have to resist wishing for it by reminding myself that:

1. The probability of this entire chain of events ocurring is very small.

2. If it did happen it would be really bad for the country in ways that can’t be forseen.

Jul 26, 2008 - 8:26 pm 35. Lifeofthemind:

Repeated losing candidates?

William Jennings Bryan

The amazing thing about the Democratic party is how little it changes. It remains at the heart tribal, racist, emotional rather than thoughtful, personality driven, regionally particularist, and transnational in it’s loyalties.

Jul 26, 2008 - 8:37 pm 36. Charles:

Teresita:

Christ inserts his own perfect past in place of Barack Obama’s checkered past and suddenly Barack is fit to greet even our Father in heaven.
//////
True — if Obama believes in Jesus. But I suspect that neither of us are fit to weigh in on the state of his soul.

Jul 26, 2008 - 8:59 pm 37. Teresita:

Wretchard: Estrada was driven out of office — though by someone no better and possibly worse, but the bug for electing rocxk stars probably ended there.

Not until the Philippines changes the practice of requiring voters to remember a dozen or more names and write them on a blank ballot. Name recognition is very powerful when you have a setup like that.

Jul 26, 2008 - 9:50 pm 38. whiskey:

Teresita –

WHY did Al Gore decline to run in 2004 and 2008? Why?

Al Gore is an experienced, and in his 1988 primary campaign, somewhat moderate politician from the South. Recall PMRC? Tipper Gore wanting warning labels on albums? He’d always been inclined to pomposity, but got elected and re-elected in TN.

My guess, is that he found internal polling that suggests that the appetite for upscale, “save the polar bears” type hair shirts was limited. To upscale people.

No matter how much they dominate TV and marketing, there just isn’t that enough of them to win.

Jul 26, 2008 - 10:11 pm 39. archer:

very disappointing to see belmont gobbled up and rendered generic by pjm. i trust wretchard will remain wretchard, nonetheless.

Jul 26, 2008 - 10:21 pm 40. NahnCee:

very disappointing to see belmont gobbled up and rendered generic by pjm.

Disagree. I have been thinking to myself the last day or two that the same off-topic trolls and haters have victoriously followed and re-emerged on pjm to continue their self-satisfied smug campaign to redirect ALL topics to themselves and see how often they can derail a thread using hatred, innuendo and blatent lies.

Fernandez does, however, remain lucid so one sighs and continues scrolling.

Jul 26, 2008 - 10:52 pm 41. archer:

nahncee, i have been reading and loving belmont for a very long time and will continue. you appear to be a conclusion jumping toadie hoping for brownie points. in future i suggest you wait for an actual attack before you strut forward in indignant nonsensical defense.

Jul 26, 2008 - 11:19 pm 42. ridgerunner:

A pattern that I use in stock index trading is what I call a 1-2-3, wherein a trend has three successively steeper subunits. In the Intrade graph that would be 1=subunit from Nov07-Feb08, 2=subunit from Feb08-May08, and 3=subunit from May08-July08. A break of the last subunit probably signals a decline. Then very often there is a rapid retest of the high of subunit 3, followed by a more prolonged decline. The Obama graph is not as vertical as I would like for one to be be before making a sizeable bet but it has the look of a crest. The problem with any analysis of Intrade is the opportunity for manipulation by deep pockets like Soros, as Eggplant pointed out.

Jul 27, 2008 - 3:02 am 43. Brian H:

Hilarious: Walking Eagle.

“At the conclusion of his speech, the Tribes presented the Senator with a plaque inscribed with his new Indian name – Walking Eagle. The proud Senator then departed in his motorcade, waving to the crowds. A news reporter later asked the group of chiefs of how they came to select the new name they had given to the Senator. They explained that Walking Eagle is the name given to a bird so full of shit it can no longer fly.”

Jul 27, 2008 - 7:11 am 44. Teresita:

Whiskey: WHY did Al Gore decline to run in 2004 and 2008? Why?

In 2004 war fever was still high inside the Beltway, such that a bunch of draft-dodging chicken hawks could attack with impugnity decorated Vietnam vets (Kerry, Murtha) for opposing the occupation of Iraq. There was so much spittle flying at dovish Vietnam veterans in 2004 that Al Gore, a Vietnam veteran himself who also opposed the occupation, didn’t stand a chance.

Since that time Al Gore won a Nobel peace prize and has become the chief spokesman for Global Warming(tm). Al Gore declined to run in 2008 because if he ran again and lost, his political capital will have shrunk to the point where he could no longer be an effective proponent of the neo-Marxist effort to restrain capitalism in the west in the name of saving the planet (while ignoring the unrestricted balls-to-the-wall mercantilism of Communist China).

Brian H: They explained that Walking Eagle is the name given to a bird so full of shit it can no longer fly.

John McCain is a former navy pilot.

Nahncee: I have been thinking to myself the last day or two that the same off-topic trolls and haters have victoriously followed and re-emerged on pjm

That’s the pot calling the kettle Burnt Arse. ‘Twas only a few days ago a certain commentator named Nahncee said, “God, I’m getting so I hate Teresita for comments like this.”

Jul 27, 2008 - 8:08 am 45. NahnCee:

archer – you do realize who you’re aligning yourself with, don’t you? the anti-semites and the anti-americans and the anti-everythings (including rational logic, experience and education)?

whatev’s – it’s not worth going to war with (another) touchy-feely fool over an off-hand comment. you support your side and I’ll support mine, and we’ll see who ends up look stupider.

now — aren’t you proud of yourself for having deflected the thread … once again?

Jul 27, 2008 - 9:12 am 46. fred:

I tend to take the long view about American politics, rather than just focusing on one immediate election. McCain may just recover and fend off Obama in this election. And that may save the nation and the world some long term harm of a kind far worse than what Jimmy Carter left in his wake. Because I’ve studied the history of ideas, I tend more towards Wretchard’s take on what is happening: some fundamental shift has been occurring in the country for decades now. The Reagan years interrupted the trajectory of that, simply because enough Baby Boomers and their parents and grandparents had had enough of statism and soft socialism. They saw where the country was heading, and they knew the truth about socialist countries overseas. But, the Red Diaper Babies and their Trotskyist and less-than-intellectual heirs – the products of the Gramscian “long march through the institutions” – have been chipping away doggedly for a long time. And I see it all coming to fruition now. Even if Obama loses, the forward momentum of socialist thinking in the United States will continue to inch higher.

I understand this and I know it because I am a refugee from the Left. If you’ve seen the inside of it you appreciate what it is doing and how it is doing it.

Let me restate what I’ve posted here and elsewhere: there is really only one country on the planet now where socialism has not been significantly discredited for the failure it is. It’s right here in our country. For me, even back during my Leftist days I took a hard look at what people like Michael Novak and William Buckley, Jr. were saying. I took their arguments seriously, as I strove to find a way to disprove their arguments. But I took them seriously. I wanted to find a way to see if human nature was indeed maleable enough to change and incorporate socialist values. Eventually I discovered it could not be done, and so as any rational human being ought to do I changed my mind and made a break with Marxist thought. I also determined that there were appreciable intellectual resources within Catholic social thought to make room for social justice concerns within Christian soteriology.

However, across our culture this kind of disillusionment with Leftist thought has not occurred yet. And it has not happened because our people have not experienced the failure, chaos, and moral/intellectual disintegration that attends the integration of Marxist ideas into policy. You won’t find much enthusiasm in Eastern Europe for the kind of worldview espoused by Obama and the supporters and puppet masters in the Democratic Party now.

If the mind refuses to wrap itself around a problem honestly, experience is going to be a bitch of a teacher. I think we have a date and a showdown with socialism. One way or another we are going to have this fight within our country – and we’d better hope it remains only a fight at the level of electoral politics and that the people are wise enough to change their minds as experience compels.

Jul 27, 2008 - 9:43 am 47. Teresita:

McCain is questioning Obama’s judgment for opposing the Surge, even in retrospect. McCain is claiming that the Surge alone is the cause for the dramatic decrease of violence in Baghdad. But a
map of the demographic shift in the city over about a year and a half shows that the real reason is that the Sunni and Shia have segregated themselves into separate warrens. Where there is less contact, there is less friction. Also, the genesis of the “Anbar Awakening” movement actually preceded the Surge and was a backlash to al-Qaeda’s sheer brutality against civilians. No doubt the addition of five US brigades helped to quiet things down, but it’s not the only factor. In real life things are gray, not black and white.

(Disclaimer: I am still voting for McCain, even though I’m a “gook” and he said he hates “gooks”.

Jul 27, 2008 - 9:56 am 48. Eggplant:

Fred said:

“I think we have a date and a showdown with socialism. One way or another we are going to have this fight within our country – and we’d better hope it remains only a fight at the level of electoral politics and that the people are wise enough to change their minds as experience compels.”

This brings to mind Tom Jefferson’s quote:

“The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.”

There’s a relevant quote from Spengler based upon the U.S. Civil War:

“In all, one-quarter of military age Southern manhood died in the field, by far the greatest sacrifice ever offered up by a modern nation in war. General W T Sherman, the scourge of the South, explained why this would occur in advance. There existed 300,000 fanatics in the South who knew nothing but hunting, drinking, gambling and dueling, a class who benefited from slavery and would rather die than work for a living. To end the war, Sherman stated on numerous occasions these 300,000 had to be killed. Evidently Sherman was right. For all the wasteful slaughter of the last 18 months of the war, Southern commander Lee barely could persuade his men to surrender in April 1865. The Confederate president, Jefferson Davis, called for guerilla war to continue, and Lee’s staff wanted to keep fighting. Lee barely avoided a drawn-out irregular war.”

The moonbat problem in the United States is a growing one. Hopefully the moonbats will not elect their President in this election cycle. Unfortunately this disaster will probably happen in the next 12 years (demographics will force it). We might get lucky and the moonbat’s President will be a repeat of Jimmy Carter, i.e. the economy is damaged, only a few hundred people get killed, there is some national humilation, etc. Unfortunately the world has gotten much more brittle since Jimmy Carter’s time. There are more people chasing fewer natural resources, the Americans are under a mountain of debt due to living beyond our means, more non-Americans expect a bigger piece of the economic pie, Islamic fascists and nuclear proliferation remains a threat, etc.

How long before something breaks and we find that having a significant fraction of our population as moonbats is no longer an option? I wonder if there is anyway we can do to dodge this bullet?

Jul 27, 2008 - 11:56 am 49. Buck Smith:

Here is something funny. Obama was protected by Blackwater while in Afghansitan.

Jul 27, 2008 - 12:15 pm 50. trangbang68:

Teresita,Teresita please; John Kerry a decorated war hero. I think that’s been de-bunked. Really he was a self serving martinet who viciously slandered genuinely heroic G.I.’s in the mendacious Winter Soldier hearings. I don’t know the nature of Murtha’s service, but its indisputable that he tried the Haditha Marines in the press and declared them guilty without benefit of a trial . Throw in the fact he’s a fat, corrupt treasonous senile jackass and his credibility on Iraq is non existant.
Al Gore’s Viet Nam service consisted of a few months inside the wire at base camps as a reporter for the “Stars and Stripes”. He received special treatment at the request of his daddy the segregationist. He probably didn’t run because the word on the street is he is an unhinged blowhard totally unfit to lead.

Jul 27, 2008 - 12:22 pm 51. trangbang68:

By the way Teresita, no chickenhawk here. I earned my CIB. I think you quite likely have earned your Most Annoying Pest Award with your constant half baked provocations.

Jul 27, 2008 - 12:28 pm 52. archer:

archer – you do realize who you’re aligning yourself with, don’t you? the anti-semites and the anti-americans and the anti-everythings (including rational logic, experience and education)?

what idiocy!

aligning myself? because i express missing the anonymous, stripped-down presentation of brilliance and wit as presented at the original bc?

the form was compatible with the substance. no frills. no hype. no bumper stickers or t-shirts. just insight and wit. a presentation reflective of mind and thought, not ego and bluster.

now — aren’t you proud of yourself for having deflected the thread … once again?

more idiocy. my intention was not to “deflect the thread”, and your difficulty with perception has resulted in you confusing me with someone else. my only previous comment here was a couple of years ago, in which i said how much i respected the content.

interesting that the tenor of your response is of the emotionally unstable and vitriolic nature of those you are apparently obsessed with ferreting out. mirror time.

that’s it from me on this. apologies to others. just couldn’t let this unjustified mischaracterization of me stand uncorrected.

Jul 27, 2008 - 12:49 pm 53. Kirk Parker:

I agree with NahnCee against archer: I don’t see anywhere that Wretchard is being different than before.

However, I am fairly disappointed that the move brought him to a place that, whatever its other benefits, doesn’t even have registration for commentors. I was really hoping for something that would make it easier to cull the chaff, not further enable it.

fred,

I’m not so sure about the socialism risk being greater here: look at how much socialism, in actually, goes on in the EU.

Jul 27, 2008 - 1:43 pm 54. Kirk Parker:

Ouch. Let me hasten to add I’m only referring to the original claim by archer that the writing at Belmont Club is somehow different than before.

I have absolutely no dog in the further squabble between those two.

Jul 27, 2008 - 1:47 pm 55. whiskey:

Teresita — you still have not answered my question.

Kerry in 2004 was a man who had thrown away his medals and called the troops in Vietnam rapers and pillagers in sworn Congressional Testimony (damning video). Hardly a “hawk” or anyone peddling security through American Action. He peddled a “Global Test” and subordination of US interests to Europeans and lost … to GWB, perhaps the worst political candidate who won in the last 100 years. Murtha was a Marine who called (since exonerated) US Marines in combat in Iraq war criminals (the Haditha Affair).

Notably, BOTH these incidents were self-inflicted, i.e. Kerry chose in the 1970’s to call the troops War Criminals and Murth in 2004. The electoral consequences of this were devastating.

Al Gore was well positioned to offer a “run to the right” alternative to GWB and Democrats in both 2004 and 2008, ala Kennedy’s “Missile Gap” in 1960. He could have offered an Iraq withdrawal coupled with strikes on Iran, and perhaps even Pakistan, on the theory that we’ll break it and they’ll pay for it. Play to America’s strengths: naval and air power, make enemies afraid, even be willing to nuke potential enemies or nominal states like Pakistan that are both threat and ally, cutting the Gordian Knot with decisive action.

He declined because likely, he understood that the Media and Dem Party is fixated on surrender and appeasement of Muslims at home (creeping sharia) and abroad (terrorism and jihad). He also likely declined because he understood that the Democratic Party has become the Party of elites and minorities, hostile to the interests of most Americans and particularly ordinary white middle class Americans who are regarded as an evil to be eliminated in form or another. Which is a path to permanent irrelevancy, much like the Evening News broadcasts of the big three networks.

What is striking about Obama is that nowhere in his campaign or any Democratic leadership is there any concern about middle class issues and populism. Instead the Party and the candidate have come out unabashedly for greater gas prices, food prices, taxes, and ever-fewer dollars in Democrats pockets.

Jul 27, 2008 - 2:09 pm 56. Triton'sPolarTiger:

fred/eggplant:

I worry about the same thing. I’m old enough to remember Jimmah, and have children young enough that I feel very invested in where this country is headed. (Of course, I cared before I had kids, but now that I have little ones to protect, things seem so much more urgent.)

Mrs Triton still rolls her eyes at the thought, but I’m steadily getting us prepared to beat feet outta here if the situation warrants. Don’t know what the triggering event would be – I guess I’ll know it when I see it.

Can’t decide if it’d be enough to just go off the grid within the Lower 48 – even in North Georgia Mtns, there are places so remote that the last feet that graced them belonged to the Cherokee. It’s a big country – lots of wild space out there to fall back to – but maybe a total relocation would be better.

Too bad that our liberal elites can’t satisfy themselves without feeling the need to use the mechanisms of government to gradually convert the populace into cattle, to exploit or cull as they see fit.

I, for one, will never submit.

As for this upcoming election… I’ve been rather pessimistic, at least until I watched Obama’s Magical Eurasian Mystery Tour. Deep in my gut, I have the feeling that he may have indeed, as an earlier poster suggested, jumped the shark here.

Now, I haven’t had a chance to look into the backstory, but… the image of him holding a press conference in front of No. 10 Downing Street WITHOUT it being a joint affair with Gordon Brown seems to be a massive breach of protocol IMHO. Imagine Brown’s Tory opponent coming here and doing the same in front of the White House without the President being with him. Back to Obama, I couldn’t help but think “What the hell?!”

The man is afflicted with an overinflated view of his own importance. With the media indulging it so dramatically, perhaps we’ll dodge this particular bullet after all.

Triton

Jul 27, 2008 - 2:25 pm 57. Lifeofthemind:

How did this get to be a thread on the merits of the PJM format?

My unsolicited opinion (at least no one can busted for soliciting) is that the old site was more user friendly for readers and commentators. My hope was that PJM would benefit from having access to all the nifty features that Charles Johnson has on LGF. That really is a brilliantly laid out site technically. Well that did not happen. Are there benefits for Wretchard in moving to the PJM site? Hopefully so since it was his business decision. Are traffic numbers for these sites available for before and after? The proof is in the pudding you know. Hope we can keep the level of discourse and analysis high here and move the flame wars of to some other room.

Jul 27, 2008 - 3:28 pm 58. Doug:

Buck Smith:
Figures, here he’s got the support of Black Muslims!
—

– The Online Legacy of Professor Pausch –

Jul 27, 2008 - 4:58 pm 59. ricpic:

Thank God the American People are not nearly as sophisticated as most of the posters on this forum.

All they sense is that there is something not right about Obama.

Something very not right.

And that will decide it in November.

Jul 27, 2008 - 6:27 pm 60. fred:

“ricpic”

“Thank God the American People are not nearly as sophisticated as most of the posters on this forum.

All they sense is that there is something not right about Obama.”

1. In his 1995 book, “Dreams of My Father” Obama writes approvingly and admiringly of his biological father’s ideas and ideals. Who is Obama Sr.? A member of Kenya’s Communist Party, whose education in the United States was paid for, through intermediaries, by the Soviet Union. When his patron became, briefly, the President of Kenya he appointed Obama Sr. as the chief economist for the nation. The position paper he published outlining how he would organize Kenya’s economy elaborated on the principles of expropriation of foreign firms, 100% taxation and then redistribution from the State, and collectivization of agriculture. This is the Leninist and Stalinist regime. And did I mention that this man who was also a polygamist, boozer, and woman abuser also abandoned young Barack and his mother?

2. Obama Jr.’s mother was a Marxist anthropologist, whose ideas young Obama approves of, with modifications (what those are we do not know).

3. Soetero, young Obama’s stepfather was an Indonesian Communist, whose scholarship and passport were pulled in the 1965 Suharto event. When he returned to Indonesia he got rid of his Communist identity and got with the Islamic practices. He was nominally a Muslim, and on the side was a womanizer and drinker. Young Obama’s mother nagged him and fought with him when he took a job with oil firms doing public relations work.

4. In Hawai’i, years later young Obama’s mentor, selected by his fellow-traveling grandparents, was none other than Frank Marshall Davis, member of the Communist Party USA. Frank Davis made quite an impression on young Obama and influenced his ideological direction and career choices.

5. At Occidental College and at Columbia University Obama states clearly in his autobiography that he would seek out Marxist/Socialist professors and take classes with them and seek their advice.

6. At Columbia University he befriends an ally of Edward Said’s, Prof. Rashid Khalidi, a member of the terrorist organization the PLO.

7. His essential matriculation into Chicago political culture involves being acquainted with two Communists who were unrepentant terrorists who engaged in bombing and murder: William Ayers and Bernardine Dohrn.

Yes we are sophisticated here, you cowardly interloper on this weblog who has nothing substantial to say except to stick your middle finger at us. Screw you.

Jul 27, 2008 - 6:52 pm 61. ricpic:

Hey Fred, chill.

I said it short and simple.

You said it long and complex.

There is something not right about Obama.

Jul 27, 2008 - 7:28 pm 62. fred:

My apologies, ricpic. I read your words the wrong way. Sometimes ‘da brain is not firing on all cylinders. So, I’m chilling and I’m really very sorry for flying off the handle. Originally, I took it as sarcasm directed at us for not being Obama supporters.

For the record, I have no personal animus towards Obama. I just don’t understand how a 46 year old man can still cling to socialist theory. I was 32 when I put it behind me. He’s waaaay past that point and still keeping the faith. And that’s exactly what it now takes in order to sustain a belief in Marxism/Socialism: faith. Because the evidence of history should by now have settled the matter.

We worry here because we know the power of the mainstream media, even while it is in some decline. But most of all we do know how powerful the educational establishment is and has been in the formation of the worldview templates of the under-40 kiddies.

We’re just worryworts here. I know I am.

Jul 27, 2008 - 7:38 pm 63. archer:

damn! what the heck is up here?

at the old be i didn’t really get into the comment section. unlike many sites where the “discussion” is the main draw, wretchard’s writing was sufficient. have the participants always been wound this tight?

ricpic’s comment was succinct and right on point.

fred’s was elaborate and right on point–until the last paragraph that is. what was that about?

ricpic’s suggestion to chill is a good one.

Jul 27, 2008 - 7:54 pm 64. archer:

previous comment made prior to reading fred’s at 7:38

Jul 27, 2008 - 7:56 pm 65. Peterike:

Gore didn’t run for president because he realized he could make a thousand times more money being the guru of the Global Warming Scam. Not to mention he could hang with the Hollywood crowd, and no doubt score some major tail along the way.

After all, why bother being President, where actual real world problems are on your plate, where your decisions mean people live or die. Why take on that burden when you can be treated like royalty, make incredible amounts of money, and all with zero responsibility about anything, as long as you’re willing to step up and lie and lie and lie.

Which is just what he’s been doing. He’s an idiot, granted, but he’s no fool.

Jul 27, 2008 - 8:51 pm 66. Charles:

5. At Occidental College and at Columbia University Obama states clearly in his autobiography that he would seek out Marxist/Socialist professors and take classes with them and seek their advice.

6. At Columbia University he befriends an ally of Edward Said’s, Prof. Rashid Khalidi, a member of the terrorist organization the PLO.
///////////////
I was up in Morningside Heights during the 70’s & 80’s. I majored in political science and interviewed
Said for an alumni film. It took me decades to get the junk I learned at Columbia out of my head. When I visited the website of Obama’s church–their ideology looked like it was straight out of some of the soft science departments at Columbia University. A blast from the past.

I went to an Alumni meeting in the past year as Columbia President Bolinger was worried about alumni contributions falling because Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was interviewed at columbia–while the Minuteman president Jim Gilchrist was heckled off campus. Gilchrist was beyond the pale. Bolinger felt no need to defend columbia’s actions there. However there was considerable upset over allowing Ahmadinejad a forum to speak. Bolinger aquited himself well. He took some abuse. Contributions will return to normal levels after a couple years. Columbia is raising their endowment by 4 billion dollars so as to start work on a campus further uptown. Bolinger has raised half of that so far.

Columbia sees their role as presenting the world to an ignorent immoral illegitimate and weak USA.

The UN is king.

That was Obam’s context when he used Berlin as a platform from which to present himself as a “citizen of the world”.

Jul 27, 2008 - 10:46 pm 67. Doug:

I wonder how much Occidental Oil Stock he still owns?
…or perhaps he has “divested” in a manner his carbon credits, where he ends up w/the proceeds, anyway!

Jul 27, 2008 - 11:54 pm 68. Doug:

“in a manner (similar to) his carbon credits”

Jul 27, 2008 - 11:55 pm 69. Eggplant:

Triton’sPolarTiger said:

“I … have children young enough that I feel very invested in where this country is headed…. I’m steadily getting us prepared to beat feet outta here if the situation warrants. Don’t know what the triggering event would be – I guess I’ll know it when I see it.”

I’m also a father of young children and have similar concerns. I see no obvious solutions.

I would call the following triggering events:

1) Two or more large American cities getting nuked.
2) President B. Hussein declaring martial law and suspending the U.S. Constitution.

I haven’t yet figured out where I’d run to.
Maybe running isn’t the answer?

Don’t really know what to do… the problem is too hard…

However, staying put and doing nothing is NOT a correct response…(study the Soviet Gulag or the Nazi holocaust if you have doubts).

Jul 28, 2008 - 12:52 am 70. Doug:

– How Obama Became Acting President –
A chilling perspective on this bizarre scene.

Jul 28, 2008 - 4:12 am 71. Pseudo-Polymath » Blog Archive » Monday Highlights:

[...] and the Obama victory lap. And some [...]

Jul 28, 2008 - 7:10 am 72. Kirk Parker:

Eggplant,

My problem is the same: where is there left to run to?

Jul 28, 2008 - 7:41 am 73. Roderick Reilly:

I’m with Fred on his take about too many Americans not appreciating the perils of socialism. There is a lot of rationalization going on in regards to entitlements and government interference. Many Americans think we can pick and choose our socialistic programs, cafeteria-style, and somehow still maintain an “American” system. Unfortunately, they may be right, up to a point. We haven’t yet reached that point in the minds of many. Too bad. We will eventually suffer the full consequences. One would think that the consequences we are suffering from already as a result of what we picked from the “cafeteria” would be sufficient, but two things are different now than they were in 1980(Reagan) and 1994 (Republican takeover of Congress): the demographics have changed, and the left has gotten to still more of our children.

Someday, when a yearning for and conversations about freedom take hold, it will have to be framed in a totally new context because the ideals of the Founding Fathers will be meaningless to future generations of this place which may still be called America.

Jul 28, 2008 - 8:24 am 74. Charles:

The most interesting aspect of the Obama revolution (and it is a revolution) is that his followers are poised to take over the Democratic Party’s organizational apparatus. This is certainly true if Obama is elected, but it is also true if Obama gets above 40% of the vote. The fact is that his supporters are energized and he can direct them to challenge the old guard for control of the Party. And chances are, he will win.

This should be the news. But even more important is the underlying reason why a showman like Obama can do this. Many posts ago I observed that with the decline of the hard left and the invasion of its ideological core by the peripheral forces of sexual pleaders, faddists and utopians its memetic DNA had decayed to the point where an 8th century religion became competitive with its message. Plainly put, neither Obama nor Osama would have much appeal in the left in the days of Lenin, Mao and Borodin. But in today’s Big Top it is not only possible but natural for a man like Barack Obama to take over the party.
/////////////
The paragraphs above are the money lines in this thread imho.

hello edward said.

So is it better for obama to get below 40% in which case hillary comes back in 2112 and McCain is emboldened to declare amnesty for all the illegals thereby handing the democrats a working majority in the USA for as far as the eye can see?

Or is it better for obama to get above 40% thereby washing out the old guard in the democratic party and replacing them with edward said’s heirs. (ie loot america for its own good and to give vicarious satisfaction to the slum dwellers in Sao Paulo Lagos and Bangladesh. no need to change their actual conditions.)

(I don’t think obama will win.)

Jul 28, 2008 - 8:50 am 75. Old Blue:

Have we lost our faith?

I don’t mean our individual spiritual faith, which may bond us to those of like ilk; but the faith that bonds us all, which is our faith in the Constitution of The United States of America. In the above, I see dire predictions. Wise people have told me, on the subject of worry, “What is the worst that can happen? Write that down. What is the best that can happen? Write that down, too. Now you can see, in writing, the two things that are least likely to happen. Now try to figure a course through this.”

For the worst that can happen, see above. For the best, I think you can imagine it yourselves.

I thoroughly agree with the insidious socialist inculcation of America, which began decades ago and has progressed to a potential tipping point. However, all we lack is an experience with it to break us of our infatuation.

Perhaps earlier rather than later would be best. Perhaps a good dose of President Obama and a Democratically-controlled congress would show some folks a thing or two.

In the meantime, the most robust human document in history will weather the storm, as it has for over 225 years. We’ve had disastrous presidencies before, and we will again.

We are not foolproof, and the Constitution was built to take that into consideration.

As a survivor of the Cold War (I have the certificate signed by Bill Clinton… woohoo…,) I know that we have been closer to annihilation than we are now. We are a nation populated by self-centered, selfish, short-memoried people who devour popcorn media with relish; because it is easy.

While those are the mass, there are still plenty of thinkers. Nothing proves a principle, theory, or conviction moot more effectively than a empirical experience.

Would we rather take our hard lesson now or later? We will have to take it sometime, certainly. The growing romanticism of socialism, fueled by our institutions of higher learning staffed, as they are, by those who have never turned a wrench or sat in an office endlessly, will need to be sated.

In the end, the Constitution will stand. Our children will live in a different world, but they will live under that Constitution. The America I live fairly happily in is much like the America that my father dreaded and warned me of. The cornerstone, the Constitution, will not be destroyed by one president, no matter how inept, foolish, idealistically misguided, or fiendishly clever.

If we are secure in this knowledge, our verbal assaults on each other will be less likely to be crass. We will find ways to maintain our senses of humor, and those who speak too stridently or chauvinistically will find themselves ignored. Our security in the belief that the Constitution will survive will significantly reduce our interest in even acknowledging such outbursts, the same way that we do not feel compelled to refute the paranoid schizophrenic who shrieks madness in the street.

Remember that our robust Union is so durable that not even a Civil War, a war so devastating as to have cost more American lives than all other wars combined, was not enough to destroy it.

Our Constitution was designed to not give one man that much power; let us not do it in our own minds. That in itself will take a lot of the steam out of our exchanges.

Jul 28, 2008 - 10:29 am 76. Peterike:

An excellent tonic, Old Blue. Though I agree with many that we may need to get sick before we get better.

The problem comes from many directions.

* A media/entertainment complex that is almost 100% to the Left and has managed to demonize everything Conservative as “not cool.” I believe that at least 50% of people vote based on what they think other people will think of their vote, a dynamic that dramatically serves Obama.

* An educational system that is soft-core Left at the grade school and highschool levels (the three R’s of racism, reproduction and recycling) and hard-core Left at the University.

* A population that is entirely ignorant about how economics works. After all, we all go to the mall and the supply of goods is endless. So isn’t the supply of everything endless and responsive to our immediate desires? This ignorance includes the media and political classes.

* A much larger population of truly wealthy people who don’t understand where their wealth comes from, but understand all too well they “deserve” everything they want, even if what they want politically is a demented fantasy. (Think Silicon Valley millionaires.) Even if what they want would mean their own destruction (they are too ignorant to understand the implications of their desires).

* A massive influx of people from countries where Socialism is the norm. These people have no feel for the traditions and strengths of the United States, and they do not inculcate these values in their children.

This all portends a perfect storm to sweep Obama into power, along with a compliant Democratic Congress. Will we survive it? Probably. But that’s not guaranteed. We already see the Democrats plotting to remove Conservative talk radio from the airwaves. What happens when the Obama government takes over the medical industry (free health care!), the energy industry (punish the robber barons!) and then pretty much every industry under the guise of Global Warming? Who will be left to fight them?

These things move swiftly. It will be at least two years until we have a chance to vote the rascals out. Plenty of time to push events beyond the point of return.

Jul 28, 2008 - 11:24 am 77. Eggplant:

Old Blue said:

“I thoroughly agree with the insidious socialist inculcation of America, which began decades ago and has progressed to a potential tipping point. However, all we lack is an experience with it to break us of our infatuation. Perhaps earlier rather than later would be best. Perhaps a good dose of President Obama and a Democratically-controlled congress would show some folks a thing or two.”

I agree with this. However I am concerned that things have gotten so brittle and B. Hussein is such a cunning demagogue that the situation could easily get out of control.

The old tired example is Adolf Hitler. Before the economic collapse in 1929, the Nazi Party was dying (the Nazis had tried their takeover of Bavaria, failed and were considered enemies of the state). Unfortunately the Great Depression hit and everything went to hell. By 1933 (four years later), Hitler was running Germany and on the verge of becoming Fuhrer.

If two American cities were nuked and/or the economy collapsed, it would not be difficult for B. Hussein to give a brilliant speech and declare a state of emergency. I can easily image him constructing a “National Reconstruction Council” (NRC) of America’s most prestigious liberals with himself as secretary. The U.S. Constitution would be “temporarily” suspended and the NRC assume absolute power, i.e. no Congress, no Supreme Court, no checks and balances. They’d sugar coat it in the beginning by saying the NRC had to automatically dissolve and revert back to the old political system after 5 years. Unfortunately, 5 years would pass and the NRC would announce that they needed more time.

This scenario could happen real easy. Particularly with a smooth talking demagogue like B. Hussein.

Jul 28, 2008 - 11:32 am 78. Moultrie:

Eggplant…the opportunities for the BHO Admin to do exactly as you said in event of a National Emergency is all too probable. I think the Left will take as much power as possible in such a situation…BHO as much as says that is what he will do! I see a 2nd CW if he is elected and a slighly less chance of CW if he is defeated.

Jul 28, 2008 - 12:25 pm 79. NahnCee:

We sometimes talk about shooting liberals in the streets after the terrorists have nuked another American city. The thought crossed my mind that the Knoxville, Tennesee, shooter this weekend might be a harbinger of things to come if the polarity and the frustration build any higher.

Somehow I doubt that the shooter read the Constitution before he took his shotgun and went out to blow away liberal church-goers.

Jul 28, 2008 - 12:28 pm 80. Eggplant:

Moultrie said:

“I see a 2nd CW if he is elected and a slighly less chance of CW if he is defeated.”

It’s certain that moonbat heads will explode if their messiah loses. They’ll probably claim that the election was rigged as they did when GW was first elected. Fortunately McCain is one tough SOB. He’d know how to deal with the moonbats if they made an unconstitutional grab for power. Unfortunately if we vote the moonbats into power then we have no recourse.

Jul 28, 2008 - 1:06 pm 81. Vinny Vidivici:

Whoa, my friends. Let’s take a pause, here.

I am second to none in my belief that Gramcian-Alinsky-style Leftism is — and has always been — a profound, even existential threat to the free West, built as it is on Enlightenment and Judeo-Christian heritage. And that the subversion of the West’s language of morality, and the gaming of its legal, media, cultural and educational institutions is both ongoing and relentless. And that this threat is paticularly acute in the middle of a world war and during a period of financial instability.

But when we start imagining declarations of martial law or needing to emigrate, we mirror the Left’s ‘paranoid style’, wherein Bush and Cheney are most certainly building a police state and will create a provocation allowing them to suspend the results of the upcoming election — one surely featuring rigged Diebold voting machines — and remain in office, triggering a migration of entertainment industry refugees from Hollywood to Canada and France . . . well, you get the idea

Don’t get me wrong. These things of dark imagination are all possible, and I’m as concerned as everyone else about the Oprahfied-statist kudzu strangling the initiative, self-reliance and autonomy from American life. And I’ve no doubt that the creeping veto power of judges and bureaucrats over economic activity, what we can say, what we can do and how we can live would, over time, be a dystopian anathama to Belmonters, if it isn’t already.

We all know the dangers. But let’s focus on what we can do. The Founders gave us all the tools we need, but do we — or will our children — still know how to use them? How many of us are involved, beyond amateur punditry, in serious and significant grassroots political activity? How many helicopter parents decline to challenge the indocrination going on in our schools because it may jeopardize getting junior into the right college?

It was never supposed to be easy, it was never supposed to be without personal risk, as those Belmonters who have served can attest to the rest of us. The twilight struggle, and all that. To paraphrase a cliche, we have met the enemy, and it is our own indolence and sense of entitlement.

Jul 28, 2008 - 2:22 pm 82. Old Blue:

Wow… more doom. Remember, folks; when we say the words “Civil War,” there is tremendous power in those words. The images they invoke are one thing, but the destruction and power they invoke are another altogether. In the meantime, the polarization they provoke is powerful as well.

Words do have power. The lefties figured that one out with, “It’s the economy, stupid.” I credit that phrase with the advent of the playground politician. Keep it simple; no more than one three-sylable word unless it rhymes with another word in the phrase. Keep it short. Make it degrading to your opponent.

It’s something Republicans don’t do well. It’s like a nerd trying to come up with something snappy to say back to the playground bully.

Holy cow, Eggplant; you paint a picture that would have this counterinsurgent turning insurgent!

It’s easy to be an insurgent. Dangerous, but easy.

Bill Clinton was waaaay left, too; and he had a Democrat-controlled congress. What happened? Well, I’m still dealing with “don’t ask, don’t tell” in the Army, and he emasculated our military to the point that we have borne the brunt of this war with what he left us, but he certainly didn’t bring the Constitution to its knees.

And he had Hillary to help him.

No, Obama would be the weakest president we’ve had in a long time, because other than Charles Schumer, he really wouldn’t have much of a voting bloc for what he really wants to do.

Has the man ever held a job for a real company? I mean, a for-profit commercial company that makes, does, or sells a productive thing that people use? I’m not an authority on Obama, but I’ve never heard of him holding a job. Perhaps he worked at McDonald’s in college or something, but didn’t he get a job with a non-profit right out of college and from there right into city council and then the state senate?

Come on, folks; the guy is a snappy campaigner, but this is America. That stuff will wear off within a year after the election when the slogans run thin and the “leadership of hope” turns out to be no match for the machinery of a free economy.

At the first talk of nationalizing an industry, give me a call and we will start planning our local ops. Until then, I’d say that there is no way in the hell that this is the end of American democracy as we know it.

Jul 28, 2008 - 2:35 pm 83. NahnCee:

At the first talk of nationalizing an industry …

Like, say, the airlines? Or Big Oil if gas prices don’t come down rapidamunto?

Jul 28, 2008 - 2:49 pm 84. Eggplant:

Old Blue said:

“Holy cow, Eggplant; you paint a picture that would have this counterinsurgent turning insurgent!”

My apologies. B. Hussein frightens me beyond good sense.

Jul 28, 2008 - 2:50 pm 85. fred:

Old Blue,

The Left now controls the national narrative. Have you ever checked out what is going on in college history courses? Or high school history courses? Literature and civics? I graduated from high school in 1973, did my three years in the Army afterwards, and then graduated from college in 1982. I can speak a bit about the Left, since I had once been a “fellow traveler.” I don’t recognize at all what is now the fare in our schools. It has changed that much.

My preference, for one bad choice among a lot of bad ones and worse ones, is that we get inoculated from socialism now rather than later. The only thing that makes me regret that choice is the thought of Iran getting nuclear weapons and using them when we have an appeasing socialist in the White House. Millions of people will die, and that is no laughing matter.

I don’t want to comment on other things said in this thread, regarding what could or what will happen. They are all hypotheticals, but my broad description of where we are now and how we got to this point is solidly factual. I know from firsthand experience in academia how deeply burrowed in the Gramscians are and how powerful and far-reaching their influence is. When I was a Jesuit seminarian I was one of those Leftist, academic intellectuals who was seeking an honest way to promote socialism. Obama’s significance is that he is a positioned person who has been on a path for over 25 years. I am including his time in college, since Frank Marshall Davis sent him forth with advice we will never be privy to. We can only surmise what that advice was, given his ideological loyalties.

I think we should be prepared for ANYTHING, but find ways to get around the stranglehold that the media and academia have on the presentation of the national narrative and current events. One of the vexing challenges I experience, and one which I am sure many on this board also experience, is the fact that many people in my life are not emotionally or intellectually disposed towards giving me a fair hearing about these issues of national crisis and how our future should find its way back to the principles contained in the Constitution. There is just so much BDS out there. The atmosphere is poisoned with it. Also, with a couple of relatives I have asserted that Barack Obama is a closet socialist/Marxist and was laughed at and dismissed – without any chance whatsoever of being allowed to bring forth the evidence of this.

The only thing I can conceive of that would bring us back from disaster would be the kind of broad disillusionment the nation experienced before the end of Jimmy Carter’s days in office.

Jul 28, 2008 - 4:16 pm 86. Peterike:

Fred, I too have tried to talk to people — supposedly educated, upper middle class people — about O’s Socialism, and nobody will hear it. It just doesn’t impact them at all. The depth of their response is “anything is better than Bush.” And I often hear this canard repeated: “McCain wants to be in Iraq for 100 years.” (A brilliant success by the Leftist propaganda machine!) That’s it. BDS is overwhelming everything.

On the topic of what might happen, how fast, etc., I just today came across perhaps the most frightening O quote yet (HT to Roger Kimball’s blog on Pajamas): We cannot continue to rely on our military in order to achieve the national security objectives we’ve set. We’ve got to have a civilian national security force that’s just as powerful, just as strong, just as well-funded.

How can that not have you sweating with dread? Think on what he said! A “civilian security force”?? What on earth is that? The Stasi? And “just as powerful” as the military? Will they have tanks and jet fighters? And “just as well-funded.” Billions and billions of dollars?

What can it mean? Did he really drop the mask on that comment? The fact that the comment has been scrubed from the printed version of his speech only makes me think more that it’s something he really means.

So Obama is already on record wanting to threaten schools with funding cut offs if they don’t draft everyone 12 and over into “public works” efforts. And now he wants to build a “civilian security force.” I wonder, do those 12 year olds all grow up to be good soldiers in this “civilian” force?

And this is all sweetness and light to O’s followers! It’s Bush, after all, who’s going to bring back the draft. Funny, he seems to be running out of time on that one. Obama is just getting started.

Jul 28, 2008 - 4:44 pm 87. Ricardo:

Fred, I am in Maryland, a 1 party state. Believe me, it is easy to take on liberals with gusto and to demolish them with facts. They are so blinded by the MSM that they think the soundbites they are fed are all there is to know about any single subject. All you have to do is read a little, google a little, and before you know it libs will really think hard before lobbing stupidities in your direction.
My son is at Yale and he says its even easier at college to highlight the imbecilities peddled as truth, for the students and faculty are so smug about their convictions that they are totally unprepared for rational counterarguments. Relax, blogs such as this are doing their job. What is needed is more of us standing up and speaking out in all forums possible.
Regarding the far reaching influence of Universities, my recently graduated daughter’s perspective on Obama changed overnight when she figured out how much of her first paycheck went to Uncle Sam, and that it may be more if O gets elected.

Jul 28, 2008 - 5:06 pm 88. Eggplant:

Peterike said:

“I just today came across perhaps the most frightening O quote yet (HT to Roger Kimball’s blog on Pajamas): We cannot continue to rely on our military in order to achieve the national security objectives we’ve set. We’ve got to have a civilian national security force that’s just as powerful, just as strong, just as well-funded. How can that not have you sweating with dread? Think on what he said! A “civilian security force”?? What on earth is that? The Stasi?”

How about the Schutzstaffel (SS), Sturmabteilung (SA) or Praetorian Guard?

They’ll have their own special uniform covered with American flags and swear an oath of loyalty to President B. Hussein.

A demagogue having his own personal army is a concept as old as Lucius Cornelius Sulla. It’s standard operating procedure for seizing power.

I was previously so frightened of B. Hussein that I couldn’t think straight. Now, I think I’ll crawl under the desk, assume the fetal position and start whimpering.

Jul 28, 2008 - 5:20 pm 89. fred:

Peterike,

I read about the same comment made by Obonga. He really thinks he can mobilize most of the nation’s youth to be a counterbalance to the military and to veterans like us? Honestly, I don’t want things to get to an internal civil war of Americans against each other again. But, if the Left wants to take measures to form some sort of Brownshirt Brigades, and we do have an internal rebellion, the Left will go down HARD. My experience of Leftists is that they have abysmal military instincts and skills. In this country it’s just not a part of their psychological makeup. Germany and Russia had deeply embedded military cultures and traditions that were generally statist in their inclinations, so co-opting the German officers or Russian officers was not that hard a sell. So, in those two countries it was a different outcome. But in the United States the military, its veterans, and its supporters are strongly anti-Left. Most civilian groups who practice with weapons are Center-Right. In a shooting war, the Left would not have a prayer. Most of the military would come over to our side, and probably most of law enforcement too. If there’s a Constitutional and dire national crisis, we can do the right thing and bring the Leftist elites and leaders right up the steps of the gallows.

But if at all possible we don’t want to get to that point. Some way has to be found to attack the credibility of the alliance of Marxists, soft Left, and the Muslims. Right now, you are right. People are not connecting the dots because they have some serious emotional problems and intellectual dishonesty. Michael Savage really is right: Liberalism is a mental disorder.

Jul 28, 2008 - 5:25 pm 90. Vinny Vidivici:

Among the Left’s most effective tactics have been misdirection and projection.

Whining about a mythical ’stifling of dissent’ — prominently, in global media they largely control — while advocating ‘hate speech’ provisions, star chambers like the Canadian Human Rights Commissions and the ‘Fairness Doctrine’.

Accusing opponents of ’shredding the Constitution’ while they assualt the first and second amendments, and while activist judges make law by fiat.

Talking about equality, tolerance and ’social justice’ while Balkanizing society into ethnic, racial and gender-based grievance groups, complete with a hierarchy of moral worth, special pleading and entitlements, and relative merit before the eyes of the law.

Indeed, as a rule, the Left’s loudest complaints are a good indication of what sort of behavior it is engaging in.

Jul 28, 2008 - 6:11 pm 91. NahnCee:

I have visions of Obama’s youth corps being something like Saudi Arabia’s religious cops, going about whacking people about the head and shoulders for “sinning” against the Leftist machine.

However, more likely, it would be a ginned-up Peace Corps, creating jobs to funnel government funds to chronically unemployed (but over-educated) Obama volunteers. They’d probably be into planting trees and sorting through people’s garbage cans to recycle plastics — that sort of kumbaya save the world eco-green bullshit.

Jul 28, 2008 - 9:40 pm 92. M. Simon:

Wretchard,

Up to snuff as ever.

Commenters still very interesting. And lively.

In fact I’m going to post a bit on this topic over at Classical Values – keeping it in the family.

And I still maintain Power and Control which I started when you first required registration.

All good my friend. Keep it up.

===

As to kids. Mine are very libertarian oriented and love the USA. (ages 16, 21, 22, and 25) One is a U. Chicago graduate – who remained uninfected despite a liberal arts education, with honors I might add.

BTW come the revolution I’m ready. I know one or two useful things.

Jul 28, 2008 - 10:43 pm 93. bobal:

They’d probably be into planting trees and sorting through people’s garbage cans to recycle plastics — that sort of kumbaya save the world eco-green bullshit.

If it gets them off the couch, maybe it can’t be all bad. Might be the first work experience many of them ever had.

Jul 29, 2008 - 4:24 am 94. John Samford:

All the prediction markets are closed feedback loops. Very little outside influance and what there is pales next to the insider trading. Wall Street is pretty much the same way, which is why it’s so regulated.

All polls are good for are trend lines. At this stage in an election cycle, what counts are demographics.
Polling is a subset of statistics and a dubious subset at that. Stats are based on randomness, which works well for molecules, but NOT for people.
There is very little random about humans. Your basic random poll isn’t random. It’s biased toward those that have land lines and the time and interest to talk over them. By the time you factor in those that lie and the slanted questions, there is very little in a poll doesn’t affect the standard error;

http://changingminds.org/explanations/research/statistics/statistics.htm

Polls are useless for results, but excellent for trends, since the errors tend to not affect trend lines.
Right now, Demographics are against BHO. He just doesn’t have enough groups (voting blocks) or the right combination of groups.
He is trying to do something about that, since him and his advisers are very aware of the basics of political science as practiced in a media driven voting population.
Right now the trend lines show Obama on a downward slope. My best guess would be that as he attempts to swap his voting blocks, he is facing resistance from both sides of the swap.
If he is successful in trading blocks, then he will win a narrow victory, If he isn’t, then we will see another Mondale type election.
Assuming, of course that Billery doesn’t strike at the Convention. That will depend on the trend lines. Going from 10+ ahead to a few points behind during July is not the sort of thing that makes a super delegate feel comfortable. BHO seems to have bought the votes of the Supers, or at least enough of them to get him over the top. Nothing illegal about that, since a Political Party is protected by the 1st amendment, but it does bring up the point that what was sold once can be sold again. Billery has a next door neighbor named Soros. Suppose she drops by to borrow a cup of sugar and a hundred mill or so? Then she has the funds to buy as many Super delegates as it takes. Isn’t that what markets are all about anyway?
The nomination is NOT a done deal yet, even if the Obamanics are pretending it is. Not ’til the balloons drop.

Jul 30, 2008 - 5:55 pm

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