239 Comments

CPT. Charles:

Latest news flash [yeah I know it's from the Drive-Bys...]: 2 Russian aircraft have been shot down.

This will get out of hand quickly; maybe Sec. Rice can stop petting the Palis, pretending to stop the Iranians and address this, quickly.

Aug 8, 2008 - 5:12 am cjm:

we can supply the georgians with plenty of toys to handle russian air cover, just like in afghanistan.

is a russia/USA clash inevitable? too bad if someone “crazy” lights up the russian oilfields. sure it will drive oil prices up, but ivan wn’t see any of the money. and maybe our buddies in iraq will provide replacement oil (to us).

Aug 8, 2008 - 5:16 am wretchard:

Two things have to simultaneously happen if the shootdown stories are true. Air superiority forces have to be deployed near but not in the theater. Second, a ceasefire has to be arranged. This will achieve two goals. To the Georgians it will send the signal that their nation will be preserved; but will allow the US to demand the pro quo: back off. Never mind the South Ossetians for now. To the Russians it will signal, we are not going to let the Georgians humiliate you further, but if things run out of control this crisis could go places that Russia can’t handle. That will allow the US to also ask the Russians to back off.

With any luck both sides will have made their point and be able to claim victory. Of course, all these reports of fighting may be overblown. In which case fine. But at any rate the question of the moment is, where are the F-22s? War may be their business, but peace is their profession.

Aug 8, 2008 - 5:28 am Manny C:

CNN is reporting that Russian troops are moving into S. Ossetia.

Aug 8, 2008 - 5:40 am kris sargent:

Russia doesn’t have the economic self-sufficiency that is necessary for a prolonged engagement with the West. Even if the Bear pulls its oil off-market in retaliation, we and our allies have enough in our joint oil reserves to replace Russian supply for two years, at least.

That said, we need to be very deliberate with our moves should this thing get to a full-blown crisis. We’ve built up tons of levers and instruments over the years, giving us the potential to crank out a real diplomatic symphony. And since no ceiling exists to the stakes in this situation, we might be forced into an unexpected directorial debut.

Aug 8, 2008 - 5:43 am wretchard:

we need to be very deliberate with our moves

Yes. There is the element of the irrational here. Russia feels slapped around. Ok, it’s true that Russia was slapping all these others around. But right now we’re headed for one heck of a mess. Bloomberg is reporting that:

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said “war has started” in the breakaway region of South Ossetia while Georgia accused Russia of “a well-planned invasion” and appealed to world leaders for help.

Russian “volunteers” are pouring over the border to help defend South Ossetia from Georgian forces, Putin told U.S. President George W. Bush in Beijing today, according to Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

Aug 8, 2008 - 5:48 am kris sargent:

Interestingly, there is nothing about this on Drudge.

I don’t know how to do it, but our mission here is to stop the kinetics and reroute the crisis into diplomatic channels. We do this by putting out roadblocks, and by flashing helpful detour signs. If our strategy is just road blocks, the Bear might start feeling caged.

If we had to denote the danger with just one word, I’d pick Yalu.

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:05 am Mike Sylwester:

Russia has been involved in the Caucasus for at least three centuries. A lot of Russians live in that region, and a lot of Caucasus natives live in Russia. There are plenty of intermarriages.

Much of Russia’s historical role has been benign, protecting endangered minorities from threatening majorities. Georgia itself was protected from the Ottoman Empire by Russia.

Russia is motivated primarily not by some desire to bully the people who live in the Caucasus but rather by desires that the region develop peacefully and not serve as a platform for threats against Russia. Georgia’s intention to join NATO is perceived to be such a threat.

It’s interesting that the Caucasus nations view themselves as potential Europeans, but so does Russia itself. I was in Europe this summer and watched the annual Eurovision Song Contest (kind of like American Idol, but with singing groups). Russia won, and Ukraine was (as I recall) third. This was the first year that Azerbaidzhan participated, and it did suprisingly well — within the top 20. Georgia was in the top 20 too. And so was another “European” contestant — Israel.

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:10 am CPT. Charles:

Latest news flash: Putin’s sock puppet has ordered armor [300+ tanks] to the region, presumably to S. Ossetia, and airstrikes into Georgia [a military base near the capital].

Georgia now claims it has total control of S. Ossetia. Russia says it will guarantee the safety of all ethnic Russians.

Looks like the Olympics are going to get competition for air-time.

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:13 am wretchard:

By itself the Caucasus is a backwater. Nothing of significance can happen there. The danger is that it might pull outside powers in. This dustup is generally linked to the tension between the West and Russia and perhaps to Kosovo in particular. Russia swore revenge. Here’s the revenge.

Be that as it may, the key thing is to keep the big boys out of this. That bounds the danger. I think the circumstance that Bush is in Beijing with Sarkozy and God knows who else may help. It’s like a summit there, so maybe the leaders assembled can do a conference call with Vladimir Putin and get him to put some ice on it.

We gotta stay cool. The probability is that it will be a limited war if you let it alone. If Russia had a huge force ready to invade, we would have picked it up. Logistics over the Caucasus means that no multidivisional force can be projected over it for some time. Georgia won’t be overrun, not tomorrow anyway. It took the Russians some time to respond to the Chechens on the north side of the Caucasus. No need to panic — yet.

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:20 am CPT. Charles:

PS- Anybody know some reliable Georgian bloggers?

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:24 am kris sargent:

There’s the possibility that Russia will opt for what we consider to be China’s military strategy for Taiwan: change the facts on the ground so fast that your opponent’s military options are annulled, then settle into the dance of diplomacy that somehow never ends — all while sending troops to Georgia for “stabilization and humanitarian purposes.”

All of this is made easier if Russia can establish a pretext and make itself the aggrieved reactor. I don’t think this will happen, mind, but it’s something to think about.

And the timing is suspicious.

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:29 am RWE:

Note first that Georgia does not have South Ossetia, and basically never has, since the breakup of the USSR. A Russian “peacekeeping” battalion has been deployed in South Ossetia for some time.

Georgia reportedly has had robust economic growth in recent years and while it has no oil supplies of its own, is planning to become a transshipment point for oil and gas from Azerbaijan. So it is positioning itself to become independent of Russian energy supplies. And it is not hard to imagine this strategy helping out the Ukraine, which has its own serious problems with Russia but depends on Russian energy supplies.

Georgia itself is about the size of South Carolina, so it’s not that big. But it is not hard to imagine the Russians visualizing an Ukrainian/Georgian alliance that would look like a real threat to Russian interests.

It is unlikely that Georgia will get South Ossetia “back.” The real problem is if Russia decides to go into Georgia.

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:32 am CPT. Charles:

Here’s the latest news: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,399962,00.html

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:41 am kris sargent:

Remember also that since 2003 Putin has been very serious about building up Novorossiysk as a Black Sea naval base, to supplement the contentious Sevastopol base in Ukraine. I’m not sure what the capabilities are, but this surely gives Russia more than land and air options.

That said, I agree we shouldn’t be in crisis-mode yet. This is more like a Flash Flood Watch than a Flash Flood Warning.

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:41 am kris sargent:

From Cpt. Charles link:

Reuters reports Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov says he is “receiving reports of ethnic cleansing in villages of South Ossetia” as violence escalates in the breakaway province.

Whether or not it’s true that ethnic cleansing is taking place, these are the kind of coded messages that make me worry this might get bigger. Claiming that “ethnic cleansing” is taking place is, according to us and our own precedent, clear justification for armed intervention.

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:46 am wretchard:

The key paragraph in your link is:

A senior Georgian security official says Russian jets have bombed Vaziani military airbase outside the Georgian capital, Tbilisi, Reuters reports.

“No one was wounded but some buildings have been destroyed,” Kakha Lamaia told Reuters. The airbase is about 15 miles from Tbilisi.

This was the same base where exercise Immediate Response 2008 was held. I wouldn’t infer too much as the damage isn’t being reported as heavy, but it gives one a clue to Russian intentions and capability. What they want to do and can do. My guess is that to this point, they are fighting with wet noodles. That’s a good sign. And as to the Russians stories of ethnic cleansing, there may be intended irony in echoing the complaints of Kosovo.

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:47 am chuck,:

Back when the USSR first fell apart, Bush I was being interviewed. The reporter observed that he didn’t seem very excited by this spectacular victory over the Communist enemy. When the elder Bush mumbled something about just not being a very enthusiastic kind of guy, I thought to myself, geez, what a wet blanket. But now I think he saw Pandora’s Box popping open. And maybe that’s what Putin meant when he said that the collapse of the Soviet Union was a geopolitical tragedy. Certainly, the world was a quieter place when Moscow’s boot was planted firmly down on that troublesome corner of the world.

As for Georgia, I am reminded of certain promises made to Poland shortly after the Munich Crisis of ‘38.
Maybe this time it would be better for everybody, including the Georgians, if we stiffed them.

Aug 8, 2008 - 7:06 am wretchard:

It’s just a hunch, but my guess is that we’ve seen the worst or soon will. Georgia doesn’t have the horses, and from what I’ve seen Russia doesn’t have the desire to take this to the limit. Nobody is playing for keeps. They’re sending signals, not fixing to gut each other. But as I said, it’s just an intuition.

Aug 8, 2008 - 7:10 am Mike Sylwester:

Forty-three countries competed in the Eurovision Song Contest. The results included the following:

1. Russia
2. Ukraine
4. Armenia
8. Azerbaydzhan
9. Israel
11. Georgia

Maybe South Ossetia will send a group of its own singers next year. That might be a better guarantee of its sovereign independence than any guarantee from Russia, the United Nations or any other supposed protector.

Aug 8, 2008 - 7:21 am kris sargent:

War, it seems, is bad for business.

Aug 8, 2008 - 7:28 am FRED:

Debka has an interesting post up on the Israeli connection claiming the Russians are essentially turning the regions on and off to accomidate their desitre to ensure Capsian oil is routed through their pipleines vs. southern alternatives down theough ME. I suppose this anwsers the quetion of who is pulling the Strings in Russia, Putin all over the wires..

Aug 8, 2008 - 7:33 am Mark:

RWE makes a good point re. following the oil. US policy and alliances are a threat to Russian oil markets, with all of their geopolitical consequences.

Here’s a NPR report from 2006:

“April 18, 2006 · The tiny former Soviet Republic of Azerbaijan is on the verge of an oil boom. This summer, a 1,000-mile pipeline is expected to begin pumping oil from Azerbaijan’s Caspian Sea coast, through neighboring Georgia, to a Turkish port on the Mediterranean Sea.

Industry experts say this pipeline will allow Azerbaijan to eventually quadruple its oil exports, but political opponents in Azerbaijan worry that the oil money will help the government of the former Soviet republic stifle pro-democracy efforts.

The $4 billion project is backed by the United States, in part because it gets Caspian Sea oil wealth out to the international market, without going through Azerbaijan’s much larger neighbors, Russia and Iran.

Azerbaijan already has more than a century of experience with oil and the money that comes with it.

Aug 8, 2008 - 7:34 am Mike Sylwester:

South Ossetia has been maintaining its autonomy from Georgia for hundreds of years, and Russia has been involved in that conflict for hundreds of years. About two-thirds of the population of South Ossetia considers itself to be Ossetian and about a third considers itself to be Georgian. During the Soviet period, South Ossetia was an autonomous oblast within the Georgian republic.

The Russians’ involvement in this old and continuing ethnic conflict is a continuum of generally maintaining lawful and peaceful transport and development throughout in the Caucasus region. This is not a conflict that is being “turned on and off” by Russia because of plans to develop oil pipelines in the large region of the Caucasus.

If any country is being mischievous right now in this conflict, I would have to say it’s the USA.

Aug 8, 2008 - 7:52 am chuck,:

is it true that the Russians will permit us to resupply the NATO forces in Afghanistan through their territory should the routes through Pakistan be lost to us? If so, doesn’t that compel us to “understand” Russia’s position here and, for that matter, on many others?

Aug 8, 2008 - 7:56 am nobozons:

Since Putin has interest in returning to Cuba, perhaps we should take in unless he backs off the Caucasus. Could address two concerns with a single threat.

Aug 8, 2008 - 8:11 am kris sargent:

Something else to consider. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline was sabotaged in Turkey by the PKK, on August 6, 2008, and has been offline since. On August 7, 2008, Saakashvili launches an offensive to take back South Ossetia.

Can somebody who’s better informed than I am tell me how to read this? My intuition is that Saakashvili made an opportunistic move: since the Georgian government does not want to be responsible for a pipeline turnoff (stability and security being the reasons why Georgia got the pipeline in the first place), the pipeline being already turned off gave Saakashvili a window of lowered political risk — vis-a-vis its pipeline partners, who would be very upset if precipitous action led to the Georgian part of the pipeline being damaged, and vis-a-vis the West, who want to avoid any increase in oil price due to supply shortage or higher risk-premiums.

Does this make sense? Can anybody tell what that means for where we’re headed?

Aug 8, 2008 - 8:11 am El Jefe Maximo:

I can’t imagine that Moscow would openly intevene in this manner (covertly or semi-officially’s another matter) unless they thought the US was way too busy, or going to be way too busy, elsewhere. Does this tell us about, say, Tehran’s future?

Aug 8, 2008 - 8:19 am monkeyfan:

These potential foreign entanglements provide all the more reason to secure domestic oil supply and energy independence methinks.

We can better support the causes of liberty around the world if we aren’t compromised by the need for this sort of realpolitik eggshell dance with fascist tyrants.

Aug 8, 2008 - 8:19 am CPT. Charles:

Update: one of our co-workers is an ex-Russian [now American], and is plugged into the Russian news sites. Take the info for what it’s worth.

A.] 1000+dead civilians in Tskhinvali [S. Osettian captial].

B.] There’s a butt-load more than a brigade [150+ vehicles] heading towards S. Osettia. And no, the Russkies aren’t releasing the numbers.

On the domestic news side, apparently Bush and Putin have had a ‘chat’.

Aug 8, 2008 - 8:29 am Yashmak:

“Does this tell us about, say, Tehran’s future?”

I don’t really think so. Russia knows America’s attention is rather sporadic. We address one problem area, while completely ignoring others. I think Russia believes that it will be extremely difficult to get Americans very interested in what goes on in Georgia.

Aug 8, 2008 - 8:29 am dchamil:

The Caucasus range has been called “The Mountain of Tongues” because of the many ethnic groups there.

Aug 8, 2008 - 8:32 am Mike Sylwester:

The Russians have military bases in South Ossetia because the Ossetians there want the Russians to have bases there. It’s a win-win arrangement for the Russians and the Ossetians, and it started centuries ago, when Russia was ruled by the Romanov Tsarist Dynasty.

During those same olden days, the Russians established military bases in Georgia and in Armenia in similar win-win arrangements, in order to protect those two Christian countries from the Ottoman Empire.

Russia has enjoyed the ability to establish military bases and to conduct military operations in the Caucasus for centuries, because a lot of people there have perceived the Russians to be protectors, as honest brokers in a viciously violent region.

These arrangements started long before there was any petroleum drilling, pipelines or refineries in the Caucasus.

Aug 8, 2008 - 8:32 am CPT. Charles:

PS- The opinion of my Russian-speaking source: …’this is getting serious. This is bad.”

Aug 8, 2008 - 8:38 am Konyok:

It appears that Comrade Sylwester has a soft spot for Russia’s ambitions in the near abroad.
Puzzle me this. Why does the same Russian Federation have such tender fraternal concerns for the self determination of national minorities in Georgia after destroying Grozny to prevent the succession of Chechnya? Could it be that the micro states of Abkhazia and South Ossetia would have no long term choice but union with Russia?
There is plenty of boneheadedness to go around in the Caucasus. Saakashvili has used the Rose Revolution and threats from Russia to create a near dictatorship. Georgians in general have guaranteed decades of poverty by replacing the Cyrillic alphabet with the ancient Georgian script, sans ascii code. Russians are eager to prove that they still have some kind of military competence and the Caucasus is a splendidly isolated and *safe* place to do so. (Also, an opportunity to send a strong message to Yushchenko and others … )
Far from being the mischief maker, the US is in it’s typical posture of muddling through a maze of imcomprehensible hillbilly feuds.

Aug 8, 2008 - 8:42 am programmer:

Actually, there is a lot of good reasons for the USA to stay out of this.

1) Now Europe and others will learn why their parents feared the USSR (and looked to the US for support).
2) We will assure Russia we are not interested in stomping on their turf.
3) One less small country to expose us to foreign policy turmoil
4) We give him Georgia, he stays out of Cuba.
5) Ok, enough for now.

Aug 8, 2008 - 8:43 am Alexis:

Because of Afghanistan, the situation in Georgia takes on added significance. As a diplomatic option, the United States needs a trans-Caucasus air corridor between Romania and Afghanistan. Without at least the theoretical option of that air corridor, the United States becomes more dependent upon either Russia or Pakistan for resupply.

Russia is unhappy with the situation in Kosovo, so the Caucasus is the perfect place to put pressure on American supply lines. This is Putin’s way of telling the Americans that we will need to play ball with him if we seek to resupply our forces in Afghanistan. And given that Pakistan appears to have made a strategic decision to support the Taliban and al-Qaeda against the United States, this adds more cards into Putin’s hands.

Aug 8, 2008 - 8:58 am Douglas Bogle:

who can handle this, barry or mac?

the world will test the USA, and if we blink they will pounce.

russia and china.

Aug 8, 2008 - 8:59 am John:

Why so many references to the United States having *anything* to do with this? These are two countries here, handling their own business. Unless there are human rights violations, as an American, I say we stay out of this. War sucks, but we can’t stop all fighting at all costs. This looks like a legitimate spat here. Stopping fighting for the sake of fighting is not the answer, there is an underlying struggle here and that needs to be resolved. Either fighting or diplomacy, but eventually it will be neutralized.

If we see foul play, sure we can help out, but we’ve got our own problems. Many of which are caused by a history of sticking our noses where they don’t belong.

Focus on our own liberty, not foreign entanglements.

sheesh.

Aug 8, 2008 - 9:03 am programmer:

Good reasons for the USA to stay out of this.
6) Stretches Russias military somewhat (maybe).
7) Sends chills up and down Turkey’s back(????)
Gives China something to worry about (maybe).

Aug 8, 2008 - 9:06 am Cannoneer No. 4:

Read Wu Wei, Brit expat in Tbilisi

Aug 8, 2008 - 9:25 am chuck,:

I’d put the following proposal to Putin. Recognition of the territories of the former USSR as being Russian, with the exception of the three Baltic nations, plus US support against any threats in the form of China or Islam. In return I would require peace and quiet over there, discreet assistance where needed (such as resupplying the forces in Afghanistan), and faithful delivery of oil and gas.

In short, an alliance. The US and Russia need each other to buy time. Time for us to develop our own energy resources. Time for Russia to restock its people.

One cubicle gulag zek’s opinion.

Aug 8, 2008 - 9:26 am cedarford:

US should stay out of this. S Ossetia is in Russia’s sphere, most of it’s residents hold Russian passports.
Extending NATO right up to the Bear’s border is a strategic blunder.

And if we stop sticking America’s nose into matters we have no vital interest in, but Russia does, perhaps Russia might be a little more forthcoming on matters essential to our vital interests - Central Asian oil “arrangements”. nuclear Iran, and limited missile defense.

Aug 8, 2008 - 9:34 am cjm:

the prc can not be happy the russians caused all this uproar on the very day the bejing olympics open. they have to be taking this personally. whose to say that putin didn’t launch this assault for just that reason — petty jealousy.

Aug 8, 2008 - 9:39 am Wadeusaf:

NATO?

Aug 8, 2008 - 9:50 am Cannoneer No. 4:

Georgia Pulls Out Troops from Iraq amid ‘Russian Aggression’

When asked by an anchor what would he ask to President Bush to do for Georgia, Saakashvili responded, that Georgia now was in the same situation as Finland was in 1939 when the Soviet Union attacked it. “It seems adventures are back… It seems that freedom and human rights are endangered again,” he added.

“This is the moment of truth for everybody, for President Bush, for the United States, for the rest of western world… This is really a crucial moment for history of Europe and high time to wake up for everybody.”

Aug 8, 2008 - 10:00 am exhelodrvr:

PROGRAMMER,
“Now Europe and others will learn why their parents feared the USSR”

And maybe realize the importance of stronger militaries? And that this is an example of real aggression, not the made-up aggression they like to accuse the U.S. of?

nah.

Aug 8, 2008 - 10:07 am CPT. Charles:

Wadeusaf…which country has the EU by the energy short hairs?????

Aug 8, 2008 - 10:09 am Yashmak:

“As a diplomatic option, the United States needs a trans-Caucasus air corridor between Romania and Afghanistan.”

Looking at the map, I don’t see how Russia’s actions block that. The area in question is a relatively small block of territory centered on the northern border of Georgia. It doesn’t split the republic by any means.

And given the reports I’ve read of the last couple of days, indicating the Taliban is conducting bombings in Pakistan to get the government to stop their crackdown on the tribal areas, I’d stop rather short of saying that Pakistan has thrown in its lot with the Taliban or Al Qaeda.

Aug 8, 2008 - 10:22 am CPT. Charles:

Well, this will warm cedarford’s heart…granted it is Debkafile, but does mention facts not previously known [be me]. And certain parts do make sense, now.

http://debka.com/article.php?aid=1358

Aug 8, 2008 - 10:22 am Cannoneer No. 4:

A Step At A Time

GEORGIA & SOUTH CAUCASUS

Aug 8, 2008 - 10:36 am dpprof:

The link below has the following headline:

GEORGIA: TBILISI DECLARES CEASE-FIRE IN SOUTH OSSETIA

http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav080708.shtml

Aug 8, 2008 - 10:46 am Cannoneer No. 4:

THE GOALS BEHIND MOSCOW’S PROXY OFFENSIVE IN SOUTH OSSETIA

Russia usually stages military incidents in Georgia in August, while European officials take their vacations.

Aug 8, 2008 - 11:09 am Al:

All this talk about “Russian aggression” obfuscates the fact that it was Saakashvili who started this round of violence.

From the BBC link:

“Witnesses said the regional capital was devastated. Lyudmila Ostayeva, 50, told AP news agency: ‘I saw bodies lying on the streets, around ruined buildings, in cars. It’s impossible to count them now. There is hardly a single building left undamaged.’”

Georgian troops did it.

How Ossetians could possibly want to be a part Georgia after this?

Aug 8, 2008 - 11:10 am RWE:

Georgia has asked to be part of NATO, and the U.S. has indicated support for that request. The implications are obvious.
The Rooskis don’t like the idea.

Georgia is an ally of the U.S. Not a potential ally, but a real one. Did not know it until a hour ago, but Georgia sent 1,000 troops to support our operations in Iraq. And they have announced that they are recalling them to use to defend against the Russians.

Regardless of the real value of Georgia to the U.S at this point, we have to realize that cutting them loose will have broader implications in terms of our credibility. Much of the War on Terror is about forming alliances with countries capable of doing us some good. Not France and Germany, which are so important to the Democrats but which seem to have about the same relevance to the current conflict as Bolivia and Paraguay did to WWII, but people where the action is. Or where the action will be if we don’t stop it first.

I note that Georgia has aircraft among its manufactured products. Anyone know what they build?

Aug 8, 2008 - 11:11 am Mike Sylwester:

Konyok:
“Why does the same Russian Federation have such tender fraternal concerns for the self determination of national minorities in Georgia after destroying Grozny to prevent the succession of Chechnya?”
————–

The Ossetians have welcomed a Russian military presence and so the Russians are able and happy to protect them. This was a situation that fortunately fell into Russia’s lap when Georgia declared its independence from the USSR and then South Ossetia declared its own independence from Georgia. It happened without much of Russia’s doing, and Russia and South Ossetia both have been happy with the arrangement.

If Georgia wants to re-incorporate South Ossetia, then maybe it should guarantee permanent future funding of schools, libraries, mass media and other institutions that will maintain the Ossetian language. It might cost some money that the Georgians consider to be a total waste, but this eternal ethnic conflict is costing a lot of money anyway.

Chechnya had a real opportunity to obtain its independence through patient peaceful political action and compromise, but blew away that opportunity to hell by terrorizing non-Chechnyan inhabitants, harboring a gigantic, international Mafia and then allying itself with Moslem terrorist groups.

Chechnya is a nation that has behaved itself stupidly. Chechnyans have kidnapped school-buses full of children, blown up airplanes, taken entire theater-fulls of civilians hostage. It’a nation that has made itself infamous by providing much of the elite body guard force for the Al Qaeda leadership. They are a special category of crazies who taunt the world, “Bomb us to smitherines!!”

Like the people in the USA, the Russians are tolerant and even proud of the ethnic diversity in their huge country and sphere of influence. The Russians can get along fine with their neighbors in the Caucasus. Russia’s history there is not all black. There have been and still are a lot of good relations there. Much good has happened in the Caucasus because Russia has been involved there through the past centuries.

Aug 8, 2008 - 11:14 am Wadeusaf:

The United States cannot allow this aggression to continue unchecked. But Georgia should not have allowed itself to get sucked into a battle with rebels while a battalion of Russian “Peace keepers” were present in Ossetia. It is the kind of bone head move that gave Russia the option of intervention in the first place. Having determined to play the role of regional influencer NATO needs to assert itself on the side of Georgia with the offer of free and secure transport out of Ossetia for any Russian passport holding person. It is humanitarian and it removes the balkanizing excuse Putin is using. Former Ambassador Holbrook is crowing I told you so, loudly. but makes no connection between the moves in Kosovo to the occurrences in Ossetia. The challenge to Putin must be to prove his case before the UN, to prove the charge of ethnic cleansing before the world or remove his forces from Georgia. Or what?

NATO is the issue, not willing to fight not willing to even enforce the rule of law within their own individual countries the European States have signaled a willingness to agree to anything as long as they are threatened with the potential for violence. They would give away Denmark, they would give up liberty, they will sell Afghanistan and Iraq down the river again in hopes of appeasing a weak enemy (Al Qaeda) So Russia figures it can get a lot more than a little lawlessness with a real show of force.

Perhaps we need to include the Russian Peace Keepers within a NATO Peace Keeping force.

Aug 8, 2008 - 11:17 am Yashmak:

“Georgia is an ally of the U.S. Not a potential ally, but a real one. ” - RWE

What treaty have we signed with them? Name it.

Just because they cooperated with us in Iraq, doesn’t mean we are tied by any treaty obligations to come to their defense. They are NOT a member of NATO, we have signed no pact to come to their defense, and even if we had, it’d likely contain verbiage making aid from the US contingent upon aggression launched upon them unprovoked. . .it looks like Georgia may have provoked this.

Aug 8, 2008 - 11:26 am chuck,:

It’d be truly low and ratty to sell Georgia down the river, but we may have to. Practically speaking, what can we do for them? The EU/NATO are hostage to Russian oil and gas. The supplying of the forces in Afghanistan will be hostage to Russian good will, if Pakistan goes to hell. The US and Russia are two large but brittle countries that need to get along, and when they don’t, China chuckles.

Aug 8, 2008 - 11:27 am Cannoneer No. 4:

Allies

Aug 8, 2008 - 11:40 am Wadeusaf:

If Pakistan goes to hell, I don’t think that will hurt our cause in Afghanistan, (China wouldn’t object either).

If Iran (big Russian contracts on Nukes NG, pipelines and other armaments with the potential for huge reconstruction contracts), Georgia (again a tap for gas), and Pakistan go off at the same time, and NATO flinches, we’re not going to have to choose isolationism.

Aug 8, 2008 - 11:43 am Cannoneer No. 4:

RWE — Su-25K Frogfoot

Aug 8, 2008 - 11:50 am Kim Zigfeld:

GEORGIA TIMES NEWSPAPER
http://www.geotimes.ge/index.php?m=home

Aug 8, 2008 - 11:56 am Cannoneer No. 4:

Georgia conflict: Roar of war as jets fill the air

Exhausted soldiers, talking in low voices or staring blankly into space, propped up walls in the town. An atmosphere of tension and expectation hung heavily in the air.

“The fighting has been hard and it will get harder yet,” one young corporal said. “We will win though, just like David slew Goliath.”

The same resigned determination seems to have settled over the town’s inhabitants.

“We want peace,” said Nino Zuabashvili, a shopkeeper. “But we are fed up with being bullied by Russia. What is Georgia’s is Georgia’s and every one of us is prepared to die to protect our sovereignty.”

Aug 8, 2008 - 11:57 am Steve:

Remembered reading something about South Ossetia recently. Found it:

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200804/uranium-smuggling

Perhaps this is why we are at least a little bit interested in this?

Aug 8, 2008 - 11:59 am Konyok:

Sylwester,

Russia has done wonderful things “civilizing” the Caucasus, most notably perhaps being to drag those peoples into the meatgrinder of creating the “New Soviet Man.”
Being Volga German myself, I have a lot of sympathy for the Chechens who have been one peed off people since kindly Koba practiced genocide Soviet style on them.
The boundaries were drawn by the Russians, placing half of the Ossetians in Russia and the other half in Georgia. Does this Russian solicitude for national aspirations extend to Northern Ossetia?
As to Russian multi-culti sentiment, what do you make of the ubiquitous Russian term “chernozhop?”

Tonight, I will make it a point to buy a nice bottle of Georgian brandy and some excellent Georgian red wine.

Aug 8, 2008 - 12:10 pm Marine 83:

I have to say that in my eyes the Georgians are our allies. They are in Iraq and that is good enough. Not supporting the Georgians will go down in history as like Britten/France selling out of Czechoslovakia prior to WWII. Appeasement always costs more in the long run, yet certain members of society never learn.

Aug 8, 2008 - 12:46 pm Frank:

I tend to agree with Wretchard on this. Seems to be a game of signals. I think the Russians pushed to hard and Georgia pushed back saying,”We can create a lot of trouble down here.” I don’t think the Georgian’s intended to overtake South Ossetia. If they had they would have severed the one access point for Russian’s to get reinforcements there.

With Russian’s entering the South Ossetian capital and Georgian troops withdrawing I think the worst is over.

Aug 8, 2008 - 12:46 pm Assistant Village Idiot:

Russia does have the impression that others are always trying to steal from them. But Russia is paranoid, so its impression has little meaning. Russia is only a semi-rational actor in international affairs. As for the Ossetians, they themselves have persecuted the Ingush. Of course they have Russian passports - the Russians have been giving them to them, encouraging their separatism. Mike Sylvester notes the generally peaceable attitudes of the Russians and their history of stabilizing and civilizing the Caucasus. Which explains why it is such a haven of freedom now.

“Stable” is a good thing, but not to the exclusion of all other values.

Aug 8, 2008 - 1:02 pm Alexis:

Russia’s push in south Ossetia may backfire if it actually puts Ossetian independence on the agenda. If a united Ossetia (including both north and south Ossetia) had its independence recognized by Russia and Georgia, the result could be Georgia in NATO, a strong Ossetian buffer state, and reduced Russian influence in the Caucasus. I don’t think for a second that Russia is serious about promoting Ossetian independence; it’s more interested in using ethnic rivalry to eventually annex parts of Georgian territory for itself.

I think any war between Russia and Georgia will be minor because it will be kept minor. Georgia will probably get resupplied in a manner that won’t get into the newspapers, just enough to keep Russia from winning but not enough to make the Georgian government get cocky and start thinking that it can call the tune for its western allies.

I think both NATO and Russia need to calm down and take a deep breath. Both sides need to realize that the very name “Ukraine” means “frontier” and exists as a demographic neutral zone between the Russian orbit and the West. Neither side can lay claim on Ukraine without polarizing it. The Baltic states are culturally western, while Belorus would probably be better off if it were annexed by the Russian Federation. Likewise, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan would also likely improve their human rights records if they became part of Russia again. (And that says something…)

The Caucasus is more complicated because it has the same basic problem as the Balkans — it is a mountainous region once run by the Ottoman Empire with more than its share of tiny warring nations with long memories. Given the disaster that happened the last time a Georgian controlled Russia, it is no less in Russia’s interest than our own that Russia should not annex Georgia.

Aug 8, 2008 - 1:34 pm John Samford:

“We gotta stay cool. The probability is that it will be a limited war if you let it alone. If Russia had a huge force ready to invade, we would have picked it up.”

I seldom disagree with you wretcherd, but this time you couldn’t be more wrong.

Ever hear of the Alamo?
Russian communism is crawling back up out of the grave. Time to kick it (in the face) back into the grave and throw in a little extra dirt.
ONLY if the West(USA, the rest of NATO would have trouble fighting off a 3rd world nation) STOPS THINKING CONVENTIONAL.
We need to do a little 4th generation warfare on the Russians.
The US Military will get a chance to fight an enemy with a logistics tail. Cut it off.
A war in The Caucasus will be an air war. A chance to get the F-22’s some live fire practice. Let the Russian tankers dodge RPG’s while hoping the fuel truck shows up pretty soon now. All the time with one eye on the sky, looking for those #$%& Jabo’s.
It won’t take long before the Russians reconsider their land grab. As long as there is no direct attacks on Russia itself.
If we don’t fight now, we will fight later, when it’s Poland, the Ukraine or Germany. Or will we? If we won’t fight now, how will the threat of fighting later be creditable?
Europe is in the position of being a large suitcase full of 100 Euro notes, sitting on the curb in a BAD part of town, guarded by a 4 year old with a cap gun. Sooner or later, somebody will come along and take it.

Fight now, while the odds are all on our side. Fight now, while the enemy is over extended and vulnerable. Fight now, while we have a staunch ally.

“There is no avoiding war; it can only be postponed to the advantage of
others.”
- Niccolò Machiavelli

Aug 8, 2008 - 1:40 pm Roderick Reilly:

I think we should send Jimmuh Carter to the region to settle the matter. After all, he’s from Georgia.

Aug 8, 2008 - 1:45 pm John Samford:

“We’ve built up tons of levers and instruments over the years, giving us the potential to crank out a real diplomatic symphony.”

ALL useless, as history has proven many times and is proving yet again. There are none so blind as those who refuse to see.
Are those Russian MBT’s crushing the Rose revolution or the Orange revolution? Soft power ALWAYS bows to hard power. Always. Just ask the Lebanese.
Decades building up those ‘levers and insruments’ and they are blown away in minutes by an Armored Division.
If your solution is MORE levers and instruments, I have to ask if you checked the kool-aid before you started sipping. What does it mean when you keep doing the same thing over and over in the same situation, all the while expecting different results?
Time to rethink things, maybe?

“The Americans will always do the right thing… After they’ve exhausted all the alternatives.”
- Winston Churchill

Aug 8, 2008 - 1:54 pm cjm:

report that 5 russian planes have been shot down so far. guess we loaded them up with some good toys. we should cut a deal with the georgians; in return for materiel aid, they rename Ossetia to “New Alabama”.

Aug 8, 2008 - 1:56 pm Konyok:

If the number of Russian planes shot down is true, this is a major embarrassment for Medvedev/Putin. On the heels of the Israeli incursion into Syria, this doesn’t help the reputation of Russian arms.
With a 6.5% drop in the Russian stock market, this might be a real set back for Volodya Putin.

Aug 8, 2008 - 2:15 pm Matthew:

Georgia’s main aim in its offensive in South Ossetia appears to have been a swift advance on the separatist capital Tskhinvali to seize Ossetian territory and achieve a fait accompli before Russia is able to respond.

The timing may have been chosen to coincide with Vladimir Putin’s visit to Beijing for the Olympic Opening Ceremony. Given Mr Putin’s significant role in Russian foreign policy, Georgia may have hoped that his absence would slow down any Russian response.

In the fighting so far, Georgia has used its superiority in artillery and air power to drive the poorly equipped Ossetian forces from villages near Tskhinvali. This has allowed it to surround the city and, barring a short ceasefire so civilians can withdraw, continue its assault.

The Government of President Saakashvili has increased its spending on Armed Forces in recent years. Together with military aid and training from the US, Britain and Turkey and the experience of its forces in Iraq, this has helped to modernise and improve the professionalism of certain units. However, many units, including the large reserve forces, remain poorly equipped and trained.

Georgia has been able to overrun the comparatively weak Ossetian forces, but a potential conflict with Russia would be a very different affair. Russia’s forces are overwhelmingly superior and their equipment more modern and more serviceable than Georgia’s.

Should Russia involve itself more directly in the conflict, its likely strategy would be to secure all land and air entry points into the region and then build up its ground forces. Such operations could be supported by guerrilla attacks by surviving South Ossetian militia units. This would quickly give Russia air and artillery superiority relatively and it is unlikely that Georgian forces would be able to withstand any such assault for long. Indeed, Georgia’s forces would be forced to withdraw within a matter of days.

It is unlikely that Georgia wants to engage Russian forces directly and if it does seize Tskhinvali, it will want to obtain some form of ceasefire. The situation remains extremely volatile and there is a real risk that Georgia and Russia will become embroiled in direct conflict. This would have wideranging and damaging implications for the region and may put at risk major energy projects, such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, threatening European supplies.

Aug 8, 2008 - 3:04 pm wretchard:

Please look at this Google terrain map of the area. It will be readily apparent that Georgia is behind the huge wall of the Caucasus. So is South Ossetia. This has two implications. The first is that South Ossetia’s long term value to Russia is as route across the Caucasus and as a dagger pointed at Georgia and, potentially, Turkey. The second is that in the short run, Russia is unlikely to develop major combat power across the mountain range. Unless it uses the sea flanks or builds up major infrastructure, Russia’s menace is long term rather than short term.

So while Georgia may have to lose South Ossetia, Georgia itself should not be sold down the drain by NATO. One option is to persuade Tblisi to forgo South Ossetia in exchange for a hard security guaranty for Tblisi against aggression. Moscow will find that holding on to South Ossetia, whose inhabitants have no particular love for it, were they not out for independence, will be expensive. Russians will become the occupiers if they don’t leave South Ossetians to their country.

One way to achieve this is to send private reassurances to Tblisi now that its national core will be protected, within reason, in exchange for a withdrawal from South Ossetia and simultaneously send a signal to Moscow that Tbilisi won’t fight for disputed territory but it will stand fast against incursions into the core of Georgia. One scenario would be to send a symbolic air superiority force to Turkey for exercises coupled with a conciliatory diplomacy and a proposal to put Georgia on the fast track to NATO membership.

Aug 8, 2008 - 3:08 pm cjm:

what if russian armor proves just as “effective” as their jets? what if they *can’t* project *any* force into the area? we have gps guided artillery, so maybe the georgians do too. i am looking for reports of tank killings as a sign of this being more than signalling. lighting a fire in the russian back country will inhibit them from making trouble elsewhere (like cuba).

Aug 8, 2008 - 3:50 pm NahnCee:

Why so many references to the United States having *anything* to do with this? These are two countries here, handling their own business.

The first thing I thought when the news came out about Georgia shooting down 2 Russian jets was where did they get the tools to do that? Is that an easy thing to do, shoot down Russian jets?

I’m thinking we’ve already supplied the Georgians with some nifty-neat thingys. Whether Russia is able to trundle out some shells with Hewlett Packard stamped on them remains to be seen, but I’m subliminally convinced that we are already involved.

Aug 8, 2008 - 3:56 pm cedarford:

Wretchard - Moscow will find that holding on to South Ossetia, whose inhabitants have no particular love for it, were they not out for independence, will be expensive.

It is rare that the well-travelled Richard Fernandez is misinformed on the status of a people, but in the case of the Ossetians, he is.

Russia has been the protector of the Ossetians since Tsarist days against Muslim depredation. Same with Georgia, Bulgaria, Serbia.
With the Ossetians, even more so since N Ossetia is an autonomous area within Russia and most S Ossetians hold Russian citizen passports. The N Ossetians were of course hit by Inguish and Chechen muslim terrorists at Beslan, and Russia redoubled its efforts as protectors of the N & S Ossetians after that.

Marine 83:
I have to say that in my eyes the Georgians are our allies. They are in Iraq and that is good enough.

That is a silly criteria to say we have obligations to provoke major power confrontation, because some chickenshit little country once fought with us. We “owe” Syria, KSA for fighting alongside us in the Gulf War exactly —- what? Iran was a steady WWII ally, as was the non-chickenshit Soviet Union…

John Samford - We need to do a little 4th generation warfare on the Russians.
The US Military will get a chance to fight an enemy with a logistics tail. Cut it off.
A war in The Caucasus will be an air war. A chance to get the F-22’s some live fire practice. Let the Russian tankers dodge RPG’s while hoping the fuel truck shows up pretty soon now. All the time with one eye on the sky, looking for those #$%& Jabo’s.
It won’t take long before the Russians reconsider their land grab. As long as there is no direct attacks on Russia itself.

Try not to be such a saber-waving idiot, John.

You are talking about direct attacks on Russian armed forces by US airpower, in an area Russia has controlled for 3 centuries, right across from the Russian border. That you claim you wish the F-22s not to attack targets within Russia, just their deployed forces…makes what you advocate no less idiotic.

Aug 8, 2008 - 4:09 pm wretchard:

what if russian armor proves just as “effective” as their jets? what if they *can’t* project *any* force into the area?

Hearken back to Grozny. Yeltsin was in charge of Russia; the Chechens had provoked Moscow which sent in armored units backed by gunships and attack jets. But in their hastiness they moved improvised formations and untrained units under an improvised plan. The Maikop Brigade was annihilated in the area around the train station, losing every armored vehicle. The regimental commander was killed. After that debacle, the Russians pulled back and did it right. Or at least better. They turned Grozny into another Stalingrad and are still fighting the pacification as we speak. And they were on the north side of the Caucasus.

The danger to Russia here is not that the Georgians will beat them in pitched battle: the Russians can’t lose in a prolonged engagement. It’s that Putin may be humiliated if the Georgians pull a Maikop on him. Putin was swept into power on the perception he could reverse the Yeltsin’s record of humiliation. But if he sends a pickup force in to “teach” the Georgians a lesson, his force, strung out over the mountains, with limited ability to concentrate its superior force because of a bad road network, could get the Admiral Rozhestvensky treatment. Going back as far as Nicholas, Moscow has had a penchant for setting itself up for humiliation by embarking on these lunatic adventures.

But I’m guessing that Putin is no idiot. He won’t push a multidivisional force across the Caucasus. He doesn’t have one parked on the northern side of the Caucasus. We would have picked it up. A mechanized division on a road can be more than a 100 kilometers long. Not to mention the fueling points, trucks, depots, ammunition dumps, etc that go into feeding this beast. So if he goes across it will be from a “standing start”, meaning nearest first. If he does that … I don’t think he will. He knows the history of Grozny as well as anyone.

That’s why I’ve argued that this engagement will be limited in the short run. In the long run the Russians can build up in South Ossetia. But if core Georgia becomes a NATO member, then it will be no different than the situation in Western Europe: Russia will be stymied. Georgia’s play for South Ossetia is stupid on one level, but a Russian thrust into South Ossetia would be even more stupid. That would push Georgia into a hard alliance with the West and give Russia a bunch of restive Ossetians.

Aug 8, 2008 - 4:11 pm wretchard:

Cedarford,

If you read my comments I have not advocated any attacks on Russia by any forces. Any deployments to allied countries. It’s common practice to send a signaling force forward, but not provocatively forward and usually as an aid to diplomacy. If you want to convince Georgia to pull back you must also convince Tblisi that their core country will be guaranteed. How do you send that signal? You send it by some symbolic, but nonprovocative gesture.

With regard to the Ossetians, I believe you are right about their closeness to Moscow and I am wrong. However, I am uncertain whether that closeness amounts to a desire for actual incorporation into Russia and not independence.

Aug 8, 2008 - 4:22 pm Wadeusaf:

Georgia seems to believe South Ossetia is a different entity from North Ossetia, not just by virtue of being on different sides of the mountain but historically, language, culture and even their disposition toward Russians. The Southerners speak a version of Farsi, and the Ottomans left a gulf of distrust separating the south from the north. While there may be grounds for a separate peace withing Georgia, I would push for no political connection to the North.

On the map the place reminds me of the west bank.

Aug 8, 2008 - 4:26 pm Michael:

How come west supports Georgia’s territorial integrity when they found it impossible to support the territorial integrity of Serbia before?

West should send a sharp warning to Georgia to stop this aggression against South Ossetia and just shut up about territorial integrity if they don’t support everywhere!

It is symbolic that Tbilisi launched the aggression on the anniversary of the fall of the Republic of Serbian Krajina. Its demise became a prologue to the next phase of the Balkan war - to the war in Kosovo, the NATO strikes on Serbia, and the humiliation and partition of the country. It has been said many times that the West is reusing the Balkan scenario in the Caucasus, and that this time Russia is planned to play the role of Serbia. Belgrade politicians who said 13 years ago that selling their countrymen in Croatia and Bosnia would preclude the Western aggression now pretend they were unaware that Serbia’s turn would come after the Serbs in Croatia and Bosnia.

Is Moscow capable to learn at least anything from the recent past? In 1995, the UN «peacekeepers» opened the way for the Croatian army which was killing Serbs, and these days we see Russian and Ossetian peacekeepers helplessly watch the Georgian artillery hammer residential quarters in Tskhinvali. In the Caucasus, the consequences of such helplessness are going to be catastrophic — there will be no respect for the weak country unable to normalize the situation at its border and to protect its citizens.

Aug 8, 2008 - 4:47 pm poetess:

Independence for me
Independence for you
If you break international law,
It’ll break it too.

In the days of old
When men were bold
And diplomacy wasn’t invented
They took their might
And started a fight
And went on quite contented.

And the moral of the story…

Monkey see,
Monkey do.
If it’s good enough for Kosovo
It’s good enough for you.

Aug 8, 2008 - 4:50 pm chris:

Why you all wonder about Russia’s reaction. Russia has all rights to defend and protect its citizens where ever they reside and if jeopardized by anyone. With Kosovo example the precedent is set and Russia has warned many times that this is going to happen. EU and the USA however choose to ignore this fact and since precedent is already set Russia has all rights to claim its province back.

Once you play with fire it is very easy for it to spiral out of control on the simpletons Russian, Georgian ,Ossetian it will be virtually impossible to put out. Other world idiots will also help by throwing gasoline on it. It is already the areas tinder box with Azerbaijan ,Armenia ,Turkey as disputing neighbors with long and very recent held war grievances.

Aug 8, 2008 - 4:59 pm wretchard:

How come west supports Georgia’s territorial integrity when they found it impossible to support the territorial integrity of Serbia before?

I don’t know what the diplomats will say (they don’t recognize South Ossetia as a legal matter) but as a practical matter it seems unlikely that Georgia can hold on to South Ossetia in the long run. In the South Ossetia must be allowed to pursue its own destiny without a) Georgia feeling it has been sold down the river; b) it becoming a forward base for Russia south of the Caucasus.

Personally, I think it would be unwise for the West to support a Georgian move to physically destroy the Ossetian independence movement. However, a substantial Russian intervention into South Ossetia would be destabilizing. As long as the two forces remain in contact, the prospect for escalation remains. Fortunately, as I keep pointing out, the Caucasus mountains will make an escalation a slow affair. The two sides can be disentangled by diplomacy if diplomacy can move faster than trucks over the mountains. However.

The only way this conflict can escalate quickly is air warfare. If you look a few comments up, you’ll see how happy I was that the Russian attacks on Georgian airfields appeared small. I said that nobody was playing for keeps. That’s good. But if the Russians, for whatever irrational reason, maybe in response to a humiliating reversal on the ground, decided to Groznyize Tblisi we would have a huge crisis. That’s the only way this can go bad in a few hours.

Whenever China threatens Taiwan the US sends out a carrier battle group. Why? Not to invade China but to assure Taiwan that it won’t be invaded. This calms them down and prevents the ally from doing something stupid. Now you want to assure the Georgians their core country will be preserved so that you can persuade them to enter into a negotiated settlement with the Ossetians. You don’t want Tblisi to compound the mistake it has already made. You don’t want Russia to miscalculate. That’s why at the very beginning of this comment thread, I mentioned it might be useful to send an air superiority force to the area but in the theater. Maybe Turkey, if Turkey will allow. This is like the carrier battle group. And it’s purpose is not to attack Russia but calm the Georgians down.

Again, this has all the hallmarks of a limited war. If we can keep it that way, then you might wind up with a demilitarized neutral South Ossetia on the south side of the Caucasus and a shrunken Georgia, but one which is a formal ally. The Russians can claim whatever credit and feel whatever pride they like.

Aug 8, 2008 - 5:00 pm Mike Sylwester:

Here is what Georgia has thrown away:

* any hope of ever incorporating South Ossetia

* the safety of the Georgians who live in South Ossetia

* any hope of joining NATO

* any hope that the Russians will leave South Ossetia

* much of the US population’s gratitude for helping us in Iraq

* much money that might have been invested in its own economic development instead of military defense during the next 20 years

* its own military confidence

* whatever good relations it had with Russia

It’s a total fiasco, without any redeedming value at all.

Aug 8, 2008 - 5:01 pm wretchard:

The Guardian writes “Armed Cossacks pour in to fight Georgians”

At a special meeting of the UN security council yesterday morning, the United States called on the Kremlin to prevent irregulars entering South Ossetia via the 4km Roki tunnel, the republic’s only link with Russia. But at a meeting with the US president, George Bush, in Bejing, the Russian prime minister, Vladimir Putin, admitted “many volunteers” were heading to South Ossetia and it would be “very hard to maintain peace”.

In Abkhazia, Cossack and Chechen units fought side by side against Georgian troops, despite being historical enemies. Abkhazia has promised to help South Ossetia in its conflict with Georgia.

Ossetians in Vladikavkaz yesterday said they were hoping for a decisive strike by the Russian army to drive Georgia’s forces out of South Ossetia. There were emotional scenes in the city, as hundreds of protesters, mostly women, gathered outside the regional government headquarters and shouted, “Russia, save us!” …

Shota Kochiev, 60, said: “This is America’s doing. They are supporting Georgia’s mad lust for new land - our land.”

Aug 8, 2008 - 5:10 pm cedarford:

Wretchard, I hope I didn’t imply you advocated US intervention. That was some of your other commentators.

And I only commented on the Ossetians because it appears only once in a blue moon that you misread one of the factions in an international situation you write about. My general opinion of you and your work is high enough that I wish you had a slot in US foreign policy circles as a person of influence…

It is important though - when a more powerful nation takes on the role of “protector” of a smaller nation or people then finds itself unable to defend them against a enemy invader. Then it becomes not just a matter of helping an ally out, but amending for the hurt and humiliation of being a “protector” and failing in that role. A feeling that goes beyond just humiliation at not looking to defend an area in a sphere of interest, but something deeply personal.

The Chinese felt that “great pain and humiliation” as they watched colonial nations and the Jap militarists carve up tribute states. Britain did over “losing”
democratic Greece, which was a great historical affinity since Byron’s days and a nation Britain had bled to help out - to the Nazis.
In the case of the Americans, failing to protect the Philippines, the Marianas Islands from the Japs made the effort to drive the invader out deeply personal for them in a way that “liberating” France or Tunisia failed to capture the same emotion..

Russia, prostrate in the 90s, had to sit back and suffer as it’s long-time religious compatriate and friend Serbia was bombed out. It is a humiliation still burning the Russians. And now as they have risen up from squalor and crony capitalism and Yeltsin-levels of corruption - there is no way they will be disgraced by letting Georgian aggression stand against a people they protect.

And, for me personally, I think we have had some dangerous Republican right-wingers and Dem interventionists taking a little too much delight in poking and creating major provocations against the still very dangerous Bear (NATO to Russia’s borders all along the Euro front, placing missile defense so close to Russia when facilities in W Europe would have served the same defense need). This has gone on over the last 12 years just because they thought Russia was weak and they could get away with it.
No sooner had Russia allowed us in Central Asia through their territory to fight terrorists than the Russians found neocon hard-liners trying to make the Central Asian ex-Soviet states less “Russian-friendly” and route their oil and mineral assets away from Russian distribution right into Western hands. Which lead the Russians and Chinese to form the Shanghai Pact basically to prevent “johnny come lately” US grasping in Central Asia in spheres the Russians, Chinese, and Ottomans vied over for centuries.

We have compelling vital interests with Russia related to Iran, N Korea nukes, avoiding a ruiniously expensive 2nd Cold War with them, their mutual assistance on nuclear arms limitation, global bio/nuke/chem warfare proliferation limitations, and mutual interests in the war against radical Islam. Keeping Russia from becoming so alienated by the West’s treatment of it that it falls into a solid anti-West alliance with China.

And, of course, our interest in Russia not becoming opposed to E Europe becoming peaceful and prosperous post-communist nations and creating trouble there.

All of which argue against continually beating up Russia and meddling in it’s internal affairs or those small nations and ethnicities solidly in Russia’s sphere of interest for centuries..

Aug 8, 2008 - 5:23 pm fred:

I’m curious about the timing of this thing. This kind of operation cannot possibly have happened without prior planning and pre-position of forces. This is hardly a spontaneous event. In the line of one of the fleet admirals (ours) in the movie “The Hunt For Red October”: “Son, the Russians don’t take a dump without a plan.”

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:02 pm Mike Sylwester:

An excellent statement, Cedarford.

Remember also that Tsarist Russia defended Christian Georgia and Armenia from the Ottoman Empire and kept the Ottoman Empire out of the Caucasus region. In addition, Tsarist Russia kept much of the Azerbaidzhan population independent from Iran.

Russia built the roads and ports in the region. Russia established and enforced the borders and generally maintained law and order and prevented ethnic warfare. Russia provided a common language. Russia provided opportunities for higher education and for career development.

It’s a mistake to think that most people in the Caucasus hate and reject Russia or to think that Russia is motivated by a desire to conquer and oppress the region’s natives. The USA should give Russia due respect for the many positive contributions it has made to the welfare and development of the Caucasus during the past three centuries. We should not be gearing up a propaganda campaign to smear Russia’s role negatively in this current crisis.

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:07 pm Tony:

Wretchard asks “the question of the moment is, where are the F-22s?”

All I know about Georgia is I think that’s where Gurdjieff came from, but I’m pretty sure Georgia’s not on the list for the Raptors. We only have a couple dozen of them active, concentrating on strategic targets, not Hinds and divebombers down in the mud. imvho, o.c.

Besides, isn’t this a job for NATO, if anybody’s going to do anything?

Boy, the footage on TV makes shows heavy, sustained rocket bombardment, looks like ground to ground. Shock’n'awe, old school.

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:13 pm buddy larsen:

The Cossacks are who Tsarist Russia used to subdue the peoples of Siberia, about the same time of USA’s Indian Wars. The Eurasian wild east was much bigger and bloodier than our wild west, too.

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:21 pm John Samford:

“Iran was a steady WWII ally”

That is a lie. Iran was invaded by both the USSR and the UK. America did the occupation.

So while you may consider me an idiot, I just consider the source. A source who keeps a safe distance between his self and the facts.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Soviet_invasion_of_Iran

Giving you the benefit of the doubt, I don’t consider a treaty signed at gunpoint to be binding. Maybe you do.

Back on topic, I wondered where Baghdad Bob went and after reading Mike’s propaganda, I now know.
Mike’s ‘citizens’ have been waging guerrilla warfare against Russia for centuries. Maybe the word ‘citizen’ doesn’t mean what he thinks it does?

“Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.”
- Napoleon Bonaparte

Putin is making a serious mistake here. America SHOULD NOT let him recover from it. If handled properly, this could lead to regime change in Moscow. That would be good thing.
NO former KGB chief will ever be an ally of the USA.
Send 200 Javelins to Georgia. F-22’s out of Iraq have the range to put a CAP over Georgia.
That should be enough to show that America supports it’s allies and that the Russian Military is a cardboard Bear.
I want all you appeasers to realize that if the Russians get away with this, there is no reason Mexico can’t take back California on the same pretext, there being a higher percentage of Mexicans in California then there are Russians in Georgia (If California would be missed or not is another topic. Google Jesusland).
If you say that the US Army will prevent that, I agree but don’t see what your problem is with the Georgian army doing the same.
Russia having a bigger Army then Georgia doesn’t change the principals in play. It does bring up the question of ‘does might make right?’ If it does, then the USA has more might then Russia, so when we say go, they need to get a move on. If it doesn’t, then California belonga Mexico. Take your choice.

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:24 pm cjm:

cedaford, how does putin’s ass taste? kind of like chicken maybe?

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:30 pm cjm:

russia is our enemy, and the enemy of free thinking people everywhere. there is no greater source of evil on the planet. the jihadis are bad enough, but take russia out of the picture and they subside back into their caves. everything we can do to bleed them and misdirect them is worth doing. the sooner china devours them the better we will all be. as for serbia: sucks to be you.

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:33 pm 3days:

Why no mention in the discussion here of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan_pipeline being severed by a big explosion earlier in the week.

I think the discussion here is focused to closely on Georgia and Ossetia. I suspect Russian control of the Caspian Oil, all of it, is the core nugget nobody wants to think about.

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:36 pm John Samford:

“That you claim you wish the F-22s not to attack targets within Russia, just their deployed forces…”

NOT what I said;
“It won’t take long before the Russians reconsider their land grab. As long as there is no direct attacks on Russia itself.”

Deployed forces are fair game, although a waste of munitions. B-2’s NOT F-22’s. Russia still has conscripts. Kill the Generals and they will go home, just like all conscripts do.
Take down the Russian Command and Control.
The Russians are extremely weak. Rub their nose in it. As long as there is no threat to INVADE Russia, they will back down.
Force them to publicly back down and they will be good world citizens for the next few years. No more cutting off of energy supplies.
Russians are paranoid. Make them understand that survival depends on staying in our good graces. They will be nice. Stalin would understand perfectly what I’m saying.

“The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything.”
Joseph Stalin
Georgian Soviet politician (1879 - 1953)

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:45 pm chuck,:

I’m with 3 days. Keep your eye on the barrel. Also, what exquisite revenge for the Russians to form an Axis of OIl with a greater Iran. Literally and figuratively, a very cold war for the USA. It’d be a short party for Russia however; China and Islam are dangerous neighbors. It’d be best for Russia and the USA to bury the hatchet and fast.

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:53 pm fred:

I was thinking of the Caspian oil too, now that we are in a period where Putin has to take notice that the pressure on the U.S. is easing up (oil prices). I think Putin and his thugs may have played a role in the price run up in oil. Coordinated effort involving Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. The Chinks probably figured it would be a good time to go on a buying binge for oil, just as a way to help their comrades out - maybe do some serious harm to our economy and maybe even affect the outcome of our election. The BIG PRICE: Obonga wants to end the missile defense program. Now WHO is going to benefit the most from that????

The three amigos, that’s who: Russia, Iran, and China

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:54 pm cjm:

the high oil prices have to be killing china, since they subsidise consumption. putin’s game of ginning up oil prices has run its course and is no longer effective. prices dropped substantially today in spite of the georgia situation.

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:58 pm kabud:

the war has only one goal:

it is a signal to Tehran, Chavez, all the gangsters:

attack USA, KREMLIN WILL SUPPORT ANYTHING AGAINST USA

so the best reaction will be

to UNCOVER KGB ANTI-AMEICAN PROPAGANDISTIC STRATEGY

Looks like KGB is losing this time

well, BIG TIME!!!!

idiots they are and we will put them to justice and hang like we hung nazis

God Bless Georgia
God help Russian people to get rid of murderers in kremlin

Aug 8, 2008 - 7:29 pm slade:

Keep your eye on the barrel. Also, what exquisite revenge for the Russians to form an Axis of OIl with a greater Iran. Literally and figuratively, a very cold war for the USA.

Whether Russia is able to trundle out some shells with Hewlett Packard stamped on them remains to be seen, but I’m subliminally convinced that we are already involved.

Shota Kochiev, 60, said: “This is America’s doing. They are supporting Georgia’s mad lust for new land - our land.”

USA will be involved and will be viewed as the aggressor, regardless of historical causation or modern realities.

Chickens coming to roost and dominos falling.

The reality of Peak Oil subsumed beneath global competition for resources.

Aug 8, 2008 - 7:36 pm exhelodrvr:

As much as we dislike what the Russians are doing, you also have to be realistic about it.

We just don’t have the military to handle anything beyond relatively minor assistance to Georgia. If Russia calls our bluff, then we either have to back off, and really look stupid, or else open up another front. WHich, of course, would provide the ideal opportunity for Iran to do something.

And if we do something militarily against Russia, and they back down, it’s almost as bad. It would be huge PR defeat for us, based on how it would be protrayed, and would be used by Putin to drum up anti-Americanism and to solidify his own hold, based on the U.S. being an “external threat” to Mother Russia.

The best approach is diplomatic, quiet economic pressure, or threats thereof, with quiet economic carrots offered. And if Georgia and Russia are smart, they can both walk away looking good.

Aug 8, 2008 - 7:41 pm kabud:

wanted to share this as well, it is some food for though.
———-
Just one comment: google capitalization is about the total of all russian oil, gas, everything))))

wikimapia could be not far, so here are NEW rulers of russia and they are complete idiots:
————–
i posted- FPM removed it : WAR HAS STARTED
The strategic sequence is unfolding NOW:
Yesterday a Georgian activist informed me that his 3 youtube accounts with several hundreds of videos were closed

that was the most important video resource on the web that was rigorously anti-kremlin

look what he wrote to me at 10 pm on 7th of August 2008:

….e-mail from youtube with warning terms violation of user )

putin has long hands but we have much more longer )

keep working to destroy empire of evil!

Today at morning I’ve e-mail from youtube that bouth my accounts will be suspended bcause of terms violation–

when 2 account are disabled sametime you can emagine whatta hell
should have happend, I asume that some russian bitches from 5th
department of satellite and internet intelligence in vatutniki(RF) have
permission from Putin to shut down with legal case my channels as I’ve
had some problems with my ex-internet service provider here I had to
change the account there too..

so who is not risking he not gonna get champagn too )

be wel

They have closed my DAXUREvsKREMLIN account right now again (

Every problem comes out from your channel content if it’s depicting
putin or KGB people then they’ve got there guy’s here for exapmle like
tis one- darki881 this son of bitch is from them and he flags my channel constantly
together with other 100 ones like him so we are invisible for such
attacks

cause in russia there is special unit called Yadro in
vatutniki(35km) from moscow which is 5 th unite of space intelligence.

I now thet here where I am they gonna braik there tuth to find me but I
don’t know about you if you feel scered then stop playing in this game.

this shitheads are everywhere like in youtube they control wikipedia and wikimapia too..

one of there liders 22 years old Alexander Koryakine is infiltrated from space intelligence to every possible IT resource..
Russian are payng lot of money to overcome informational war but enyway they are loosing it no matter what.
this is one link to you and I can’t tell you anymore…

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Alexandre_Koriakine

this bustard is friend of google owner and dues what he wantes.

From this red bitches I’m wayting every possible move towards hiting
the Iran or as you’ve sayd Georgia this communists have same brain with
nazis

thanx buddy for informaion I’m my self where former soviet citizen but
now as russians hited my own country I hate them more then chechens do
cause in several week or maybe day’s you gonna see news channels about
war between Georgia and Russia-
Hope this is not an begining of a third world war
be well and see U…..

look at Koryakin youtube :

http://www.youtube.com/profile?user=darki881
—————–
1st news report on echo of moscow on the begining of the war dated:

8-8-08, 00-08

88 is hh(hihitler as we all know. u can see this at Koryakin accoun too:

Gott mit uns!

Koryakin is a real high flyer in internet business, as a co-founder of wikimapia he may be better of then most of russian oligarchs

he is mad- a real fascist , smart as a computer kid, influenced bu DUGIN(check in wiki who this criminal is) and looks like he himself selected the date of attack : 8-8-8-00-08

dont take this easy. THIS IS IT.

Aug 8, 2008 - 7:43 pm SirSefirot:

I hope this war is over in a few days. But in the meanwhile, the more russian jets shot down and the more russian conscripts that return home in wooden boxes, the better.

We must not forget that Russia was (and is) one of the countries, if not THE country, who has made every possible action to bolster our enemies, at home and abroad, financing them, giving them weaponry and political support at the UN. Do not be fooled; they are now as much our enemies as they were in the times of the USSR.

As some people have said, let’s give them some stingers and hellfires, step back and watch the fireworks, while mantaining a F-22 squadron nearby. If the shots haven’t stopped in a few days, make a couple of russian jets “accidentally crash” till they get the message. It will be clear enough so that the russians, and more importantly, the chinese and the iranians, can understand it perfectly.

Proxy wars work both ways.

BTW, if there wasn’t a reason to build an antimissile installation in Georgia before, there it is now.

Aug 8, 2008 - 7:49 pm fred:

The number of posters on this thread rooting for Russia is stunning. They soil their thin reputation here by finding excuses for Russian aggression. And so the masks fall and the gloves come off…

I do favor the right kind of suggestions which exhelodrvr has described above.

The timing is curious, right on the eve of the Summer Olympiad. And it comes on the heels of Russian illegal seizure of all the rights to the Arctic Circle’s undersea oil reserves. Putin is seeing his jacking up oil strategy collapsing as the market demand for crude is pulling back. The money he’s been spending via his intermediaries and agents to bid up oil could only drive the market so far.

I still think the short-term strategy involves a lot of players who wanted the U.S. economy to nosedive and pave the way for the Messiah’s Promise to end the missile defense program.

I normally do not inhale the vapors of conspiratorial thinking, but sometimes a lot of events and linkages seem to show a pattern that suggests something. Can’t prove it, but the pattern is hard to erase.

Aug 8, 2008 - 7:51 pm kabud:

my previous post still awaits moderation, but it has lots of !!very important facts!! well, may be it has a curse word- i will come back in 1o minutes and try to repost

Aug 8, 2008 - 7:54 pm elijah:

The Western Route (via Turkey): favored by Turkey, the United States, Israel, and the EU.

Turkey and Israel are acknowledging that they are once again discussing the possibility of constructing underwater pipelines from the Turkish port of Ceyhan to the Israeli port of Ashkelon. Ceyhan is now the Mediterranean hub of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline. That pipeline connects Ceyhan to Caspian Sea basin oil sources. Interestingly enough, Israel could ship the oil through pipelines to its Red Sea port of Eilat, and then load the oil back on tankers for shipment to East Africa, India, or East Asia (Japan and China). This is an interesting option for Caspian Sea oil exporters, like Azerbaijan, because it bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran often threatens to close. The pipelines don’t yet exist, but the Israelis are supposed to be willing to put up the capital. Two other undersea pipelines could be constructed, one to carry natural gas and another to ship electricity. Turkey’s new hydro-electric power stations are coming on line and Turkey has electricity to sell.

4)The Western Route (via Turkey): This is favoured by Turkey, the United States, Israel, and the EU. There are three options here; firstly a pipeline to the port of Suspa in Georgia and then through the Bosporus straits to Europe. The Turkish claim is that the straits will not be able to handle the increased amount of shipping and propose instead a pipeline from Azerbaijan to Ceyhan on Turkey’s Mediterranean coast. The high costs of this proposal have promoted an alternative American plan to bypass the Bosporus straits with a pipeline going through Bulgaria and Greece.

…………………………….

Today NATO includes former Warsaw Pact or Soviet Union states Poland, Latvia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Lithuania, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovakia and Slovenia. Candidates to join include the Republic of Georgia, Croatia, Albania and Macedonia.

How about the network of new US military bases? For example, Camp Bondsteel, at the border between Kosovo and Macedonia. Bondsteel put US air power within easy striking distance of the oil-rich Middle East and Caspian Sea, as well as Russia. Are there U.S. bases in Hungary, Bosnia, Albania and Macedonia? How about Bezmer in Bulgaria?

And in Afghanistan? Bagram Air Field north of Kabul, the US’ main military logistics center; Kandahar Air Field, in southern Afghanistan and Shindand Air Field in the western province of Herat. Shindand, the largest US base in Afghanistan, was built some 100 kilometers from the border with Iran. Russia, China, Iran and Arab lands lie fairly close to these bases.

What about Manas Air Base at Bishkek’s international airport. Manas is not only near to Afghanistan; it is also in easy striking distance to Caspian Sea oil and gas, as well as to the borders of both China and Russia.

4/30/2007 11:41:00 AM @ Belmont Club

Aug 8, 2008 - 8:02 pm fred:

Let me remind everyone what a very, very important stake is in our November election: the future of the missile defense shield. Russia, Iran, and China oppose it vehemently and will go to any length to stop it, including rendering assistance to a U.S. candidate for office who has promised to end the program.

It is the one thing that can help stabilize, not destabilize, the world. One of my sisters is married to a Raytheon exec who is in the missile defense program. If Obonga is elected, well, he’ll likely be out of a job, but my interest in the program goes beyond his job security. It is the security of my country and of all free peoples who resist tyranny, whether Islamic or Socialist. All of the world’s totalitarians are against this program, including our own internal Leftist Fifth Column and its filthy alliance with the Islamic jihad.

Aug 8, 2008 - 8:04 pm Cannoneer No. 4:

South Ossetia Crisis Could Be Russia’s Chance To Defeat Siloviki

South Ossetia is not a territory, not a country, not a regime. It is a joint venture of siloviki generals and Ossetian bandits for making money in a conflict with Georgia.

Whenever someone starts telling us about shelling in Tskhinvali, it is important to keep in mind exactly what Tskhinvali is. It is not a city somewhere in the middle of a republic that is being fired upon by saboteurs. On three sides, Tskhinvali is surrounded by Georgian villages. The edge of Tskhinvali is a military outpost. South Ossetian forces fire from there into the Georgian villages, and the Georgians respond with fire of their own. To help keep Georgian fire from hitting civilians in the city, all the South Ossetians would have to do is move their military base forward a couple hundred meters.

But, of course, it is a fundamental principle of terrorists the world over — set up firing points in civilian areas and then when your enemy fires on you, you gleefully parade the bodies of your own children in front of the television cameras. Kokoity’s terrorists are following this same principle. If South Ossetia can in any way be considered a state, it must be considered a terrorist state.

Aug 8, 2008 - 8:04 pm kabud:

SUPPORT OUR FIGHT FOR FREEDOM
http://www.youtube.com/user/yarm88

Aug 8, 2008 - 8:16 pm Charles:

Boy, the footage on TV makes shows heavy, sustained rocket bombardment, looks like ground to ground. Shock’n’awe, old school.
////////////////////////////
Fireworks were pretty impressive too for the opening of the olympics. The chinese as well had a human graphics display of the entire history for the opening ceremony. It looked like their life flashing before their eyes.

Aug 8, 2008 - 9:10 pm Russian Bear:

Well, too many comments to comment on…
So, this is just my point of view;
What is next to expect:
Russian troops will liberate the South Ossetian areas occupied by Georgians in their current offensive, and stop on the S. Ossetia borders. It does not make sense to go farther. Russia is a kind of a guarantor of safety for the Georgia’s separatist regions. They are supported by Russia and they count on her support and assistance. Russia warned many times that she would not tolerate attacks on theis regions by Georgia. After the Georgians are repulsed, the prewar status-quo restored, and credibility of Russia is proven, the war will calm down. Of course, Russians will try to destroy as much of Georgia military power, as possible, to reduce Georgian agressivness and readiness for future similar actions.
Political ramifications:
The most radical would be the following: South Ossetians may present themselves as “sufferers”, say “enough is enough”, and ask Russia to recognize their independence. And may get it. Then, they may have something like a referendum to join the North Ossetia, which is a part of the Russian Federation and the most pro-Russian region in the whole North Caucasus. So, Russians may get their foot on the South side of the Caucasian Range and just about 100 miles from the Georgian capital Tbilisi.
A good response for the inevitable Georgia entering NATO.
The softer outcome: The conflict returns to the uncertainty it was before. Georgia is not controlling the South Ossetia. South Ossetia is not recognized as an independent state. Russia has a lot of influence there and uses the unsolved conflict to harass Georgia and to prevent her entry to NATO.

Aug 8, 2008 - 9:41 pm fred:

I think the Russian incursion only makes it MORE likely that Georgia will solidify its alliance with the West, not less. The only question is how resolute the West will be in defending Georgian rights to join NATO.

I mean, what is the advantage to Georgia in being dictated to by gangsters in the Kremlin? Of course Russia can keep those areas and populations that wish to restore their slavery to the Motherland. If the Kremlin can stretch its teat all the way down into the Caucasus, I suppose people will settle for that kind of security…

Aug 8, 2008 - 9:51 pm kabud:

By invading Georgia the Russians are assuring the Iranians of Moscow’s readiness to confront the U.S. By invading Georgia the Russians are exacerbating the global energy crisis by strengthening all anti-American forces in the Middle East.

The price of oil isn’t merely about oil. It is about food, the U.S. dollar and power-politics. Westerners, however, are always “mystified” when the Russians seem to act contrary to their own economic interest (as if economic interests were the only interests). It is true that Russia has benefitted from high energy prices. More significantly, Russia will benefit even more when the U.S. dollar collapses.

In every strategic equation losses are relative. If you are somewhat hurt and your enemy is crippled, you’ve won a great victory. After all, war is about accepting damage as well as inflicting damage. And war between America and Russia has been the game all along. Only the American side has consistently refused to recognize the fact. In Washington they have deluded themselves about Russia’s long term strategic intentions. And even now they will continue to delude themselves. American pundits will puzzle over Russia’s invasion of Georgia. And perhaps the Russians will pull back, having gained some significant concession from Washington. It is hard to say at this early hour.

If we look at Russian rhetoric and Russian actions over the past nine years we will find a pattern. In recent months the Russians have been acting as if they want to provoke a break with the Americans. They want to put themselves openly and honestly on the other side of the fence. If there is global conflict anywhere in the world the Russian government wants to take the side of America’s enemy. In Venezuela, in Africa, in the Middle East, in the Far East, the Russians want to renew the confrontation between East and West.
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/pastanalysis/2008/0808.html

Aug 8, 2008 - 10:05 pm Alexis:

I regard Russia’s incursion into Georgian territory to be less interesting than Prime Minister Putin’s pretext, that of protecting Russian citizens in the “near abroad”. Many Russians live in Kazakhstan; if Russian citizenship were extended to Russian speakers in Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation would presumably have a pretext for invading Kazakhstan as well.

Latvia and Estonia are members of NATO with significant Russian minorities. Although the military pretext of Russophone irredentism is unlikely to be used against these Baltic republics any time soon, I think this pretext is unlikely to reassure Latvians and Estonians. Given how Russia has a vested interest in gaining a land bridge to the Kaliningrad pocket, which is presently surrounded by land by NATO, Russia’s future Baltic diplomacy will be interesting.

Aug 8, 2008 - 10:17 pm LenS:

Russia is our enemy. They have always been an enemy of freedom. Russian nationalism has always been very simple — kill and enslave your neighbors because it distracts from the way Russian leaders treat their own people. The sad part is that the Russian people approve of it. I guess misery loves company.

No matter — the demographic bomb set off by the Bolshevicks will solve the problem in just a few decades, if that. Russia will simply be another name for a tribe that troubled the world for a while before vanishing. And humanity will be a better place without them.

Still, it would be best if the USN and USAF destroyed the Russian nukes, missiles and subs now before they hurt someone.

Aug 8, 2008 - 10:22 pm Neil:

Saakashvilli- that really should be Saakaswally-, thought he could use the smokescreen of the opening of the Olympic Games to launch a brutal military assault against the people of the breakaway province of South Ossetia. In a referendum, 99% of South Ossetians said ‘nyet’ to any association with Georgia, but hey, what does a little thing like democracy matter when you’re the neocons’ man in the Caucasus.

But Saakaswally’s cunning- (and utterly despicable) plan, has spectacularly back-fired. The murder of ten Russian peacekeepers - and the slaughter of hundreds of innocent South Ossetians has led Moscow to send in the tanks. And the planes. And now the hapless Georgian President is appealing for ‘help’ against Russian ‘aggression’(!- yes, please try and keep a straight face) from the EU and the US.

Taking page directly from the Croat, Bosnian Muslim and Kosovo Albanian filthy wars — internationalizing the issue and crying for Western help while attacking others — Georgian president “appealed directly to the international community, saying the confrontation was concerned America, values and freedom.”

KLA, anyone?

“Saakashvili said his five million-strong nation, with its comparably small army, has no chance of defeating the might of Russia. That is why he has called on the outside world to step in and halt what he called Moscow’s blunt aggression.”

So, even though Saakashvili’s well aware he can’t possible take Russia on, he still attacks and kills Russian peacekeepers and civilians in South Ossetia. That could only be because he knows he can count on U.S.-led NATO to fight his dirty war. Just like Tudjman, Izetbegovic and Thaci before him.

Is United States now going to get into the war with Russia? Is NATO going to bomb Moscow now? If they claim Russia is an “aggressor” for trying to protect 75,000 hapless Russians in South Ossetia, then they should try to attack Russia like Serbia, see how that one goes… whether they get to fly over Western Europe before getting their teeth bashed in. Or, more likely, are they “just” going to have NATO march in Russian-populated South Ossetia under the guise of “peacekeepers”, to let Georgia’s Thaci exterminate all the Russians and get that strategic chunk of Caucasus under their boots, exactly like the Serbian province of Kosovo and Metohija? We shall see.

Right on cue, the professional Russophobes are crawling out from beneath their stones, penning their rabidly anti-Moscow propaganda pieces- a mendacious narrative in which the aggressors become the victims of aggression and the victims of aggression the aggressors. But this is one dispute that even the neocons can’t spin to their advantage. Saakaswally took an almighty gamble- and lost. No one is going to go to his assistance. The former employee of Patterson, Belkan, Webb and Tyler is going to be taught a lesson he’ll never forget.

Never provoke a bear.

Aug 8, 2008 - 10:31 pm cjm:

in a perverse way (russians are involved, after all) this incursion helps mccain, not obama. this of course is what the russians want. mccain is predictable in his responses, where obama is such a dunce that he could easily over-react to some minor event, turning it into a huge (and unexpected)problem.

Aug 8, 2008 - 10:32 pm kabud:

LenS:
usa idiotic political elits will never do it, u must be joking))) they had a chance to do it in the late 40s. EASILY

now we will get hit by and public will be fed a bluffing pitch of `islamists` hahaha)))

nice way to die isnt it:):):)

USA SHOULD IMMEDIATELY INCREASE OUR NUCLEAR ARSENAL
The Russians and Chinese - inveterate cheaters on their international obligations - are busily modernizing their nuclear forces. Pakistan and North Korea are among the problematic nuclear powers expanding theirs, while still others - notably, Iran - are covertly trying to acquire the Bomb. A number of these states have ties to terrorists that could result in the latter “going nuclear,” too.

Thanks to 16 years of inattention, purposeful neglect and willf