241 Comments

1. CPT. Charles:

Latest news flash [yeah I know it's from the Drive-Bys...]: 2 Russian aircraft have been shot down.

This will get out of hand quickly; maybe Sec. Rice can stop petting the Palis, pretending to stop the Iranians and address this, quickly.

Aug 8, 2008 - 5:12 am 2. cjm:

we can supply the georgians with plenty of toys to handle russian air cover, just like in afghanistan.

is a russia/USA clash inevitable? too bad if someone “crazy” lights up the russian oilfields. sure it will drive oil prices up, but ivan wn’t see any of the money. and maybe our buddies in iraq will provide replacement oil (to us).

Aug 8, 2008 - 5:16 am 3. wretchard:

Two things have to simultaneously happen if the shootdown stories are true. Air superiority forces have to be deployed near but not in the theater. Second, a ceasefire has to be arranged. This will achieve two goals. To the Georgians it will send the signal that their nation will be preserved; but will allow the US to demand the pro quo: back off. Never mind the South Ossetians for now. To the Russians it will signal, we are not going to let the Georgians humiliate you further, but if things run out of control this crisis could go places that Russia can’t handle. That will allow the US to also ask the Russians to back off.

With any luck both sides will have made their point and be able to claim victory. Of course, all these reports of fighting may be overblown. In which case fine. But at any rate the question of the moment is, where are the F-22s? War may be their business, but peace is their profession.

Aug 8, 2008 - 5:28 am 4. Manny C:

CNN is reporting that Russian troops are moving into S. Ossetia.

Aug 8, 2008 - 5:40 am 5. kris sargent:

Russia doesn’t have the economic self-sufficiency that is necessary for a prolonged engagement with the West. Even if the Bear pulls its oil off-market in retaliation, we and our allies have enough in our joint oil reserves to replace Russian supply for two years, at least.

That said, we need to be very deliberate with our moves should this thing get to a full-blown crisis. We’ve built up tons of levers and instruments over the years, giving us the potential to crank out a real diplomatic symphony. And since no ceiling exists to the stakes in this situation, we might be forced into an unexpected directorial debut.

Aug 8, 2008 - 5:43 am 6. wretchard:

we need to be very deliberate with our moves

Yes. There is the element of the irrational here. Russia feels slapped around. Ok, it’s true that Russia was slapping all these others around. But right now we’re headed for one heck of a mess. Bloomberg is reporting that:

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said “war has started” in the breakaway region of South Ossetia while Georgia accused Russia of “a well-planned invasion” and appealed to world leaders for help.

Russian “volunteers” are pouring over the border to help defend South Ossetia from Georgian forces, Putin told U.S. President George W. Bush in Beijing today, according to Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

Aug 8, 2008 - 5:48 am 7. Pajamas Media » Violence Breaking Up in the Caucasus:

[...] Read the full post here… [...]

Aug 8, 2008 - 5:50 am 8. kris sargent:

Interestingly, there is nothing about this on Drudge.

I don’t know how to do it, but our mission here is to stop the kinetics and reroute the crisis into diplomatic channels. We do this by putting out roadblocks, and by flashing helpful detour signs. If our strategy is just road blocks, the Bear might start feeling caged.

If we had to denote the danger with just one word, I’d pick Yalu.

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:05 am 9. Mike Sylwester:

Russia has been involved in the Caucasus for at least three centuries. A lot of Russians live in that region, and a lot of Caucasus natives live in Russia. There are plenty of intermarriages.

Much of Russia’s historical role has been benign, protecting endangered minorities from threatening majorities. Georgia itself was protected from the Ottoman Empire by Russia.

Russia is motivated primarily not by some desire to bully the people who live in the Caucasus but rather by desires that the region develop peacefully and not serve as a platform for threats against Russia. Georgia’s intention to join NATO is perceived to be such a threat.

It’s interesting that the Caucasus nations view themselves as potential Europeans, but so does Russia itself. I was in Europe this summer and watched the annual Eurovision Song Contest (kind of like American Idol, but with singing groups). Russia won, and Ukraine was (as I recall) third. This was the first year that Azerbaidzhan participated, and it did suprisingly well — within the top 20. Georgia was in the top 20 too. And so was another “European” contestant — Israel.

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:10 am 10. CPT. Charles:

Latest news flash: Putin’s sock puppet has ordered armor [300+ tanks] to the region, presumably to S. Ossetia, and airstrikes into Georgia [a military base near the capital].

Georgia now claims it has total control of S. Ossetia. Russia says it will guarantee the safety of all ethnic Russians.

Looks like the Olympics are going to get competition for air-time.

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:13 am 11. wretchard:

By itself the Caucasus is a backwater. Nothing of significance can happen there. The danger is that it might pull outside powers in. This dustup is generally linked to the tension between the West and Russia and perhaps to Kosovo in particular. Russia swore revenge. Here’s the revenge.

Be that as it may, the key thing is to keep the big boys out of this. That bounds the danger. I think the circumstance that Bush is in Beijing with Sarkozy and God knows who else may help. It’s like a summit there, so maybe the leaders assembled can do a conference call with Vladimir Putin and get him to put some ice on it.

We gotta stay cool. The probability is that it will be a limited war if you let it alone. If Russia had a huge force ready to invade, we would have picked it up. Logistics over the Caucasus means that no multidivisional force can be projected over it for some time. Georgia won’t be overrun, not tomorrow anyway. It took the Russians some time to respond to the Chechens on the north side of the Caucasus. No need to panic — yet.

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:20 am 12. CPT. Charles:

PS- Anybody know some reliable Georgian bloggers?

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:24 am 13. kris sargent:

There’s the possibility that Russia will opt for what we consider to be China’s military strategy for Taiwan: change the facts on the ground so fast that your opponent’s military options are annulled, then settle into the dance of diplomacy that somehow never ends — all while sending troops to Georgia for “stabilization and humanitarian purposes.”

All of this is made easier if Russia can establish a pretext and make itself the aggrieved reactor. I don’t think this will happen, mind, but it’s something to think about.

And the timing is suspicious.

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:29 am 14. RWE:

Note first that Georgia does not have South Ossetia, and basically never has, since the breakup of the USSR. A Russian “peacekeeping” battalion has been deployed in South Ossetia for some time.

Georgia reportedly has had robust economic growth in recent years and while it has no oil supplies of its own, is planning to become a transshipment point for oil and gas from Azerbaijan. So it is positioning itself to become independent of Russian energy supplies. And it is not hard to imagine this strategy helping out the Ukraine, which has its own serious problems with Russia but depends on Russian energy supplies.

Georgia itself is about the size of South Carolina, so it’s not that big. But it is not hard to imagine the Russians visualizing an Ukrainian/Georgian alliance that would look like a real threat to Russian interests.

It is unlikely that Georgia will get South Ossetia “back.” The real problem is if Russia decides to go into Georgia.

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:32 am 15. CPT. Charles:

Here’s the latest news: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,399962,00.html

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:41 am 16. kris sargent:

Remember also that since 2003 Putin has been very serious about building up Novorossiysk as a Black Sea naval base, to supplement the contentious Sevastopol base in Ukraine. I’m not sure what the capabilities are, but this surely gives Russia more than land and air options.

That said, I agree we shouldn’t be in crisis-mode yet. This is more like a Flash Flood Watch than a Flash Flood Warning.

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:41 am 17. kris sargent:

From Cpt. Charles link:

Reuters reports Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov says he is “receiving reports of ethnic cleansing in villages of South Ossetia” as violence escalates in the breakaway province.

Whether or not it’s true that ethnic cleansing is taking place, these are the kind of coded messages that make me worry this might get bigger. Claiming that “ethnic cleansing” is taking place is, according to us and our own precedent, clear justification for armed intervention.

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:46 am 18. wretchard:

The key paragraph in your link is:

A senior Georgian security official says Russian jets have bombed Vaziani military airbase outside the Georgian capital, Tbilisi, Reuters reports.

“No one was wounded but some buildings have been destroyed,” Kakha Lamaia told Reuters. The airbase is about 15 miles from Tbilisi.

This was the same base where exercise Immediate Response 2008 was held. I wouldn’t infer too much as the damage isn’t being reported as heavy, but it gives one a clue to Russian intentions and capability. What they want to do and can do. My guess is that to this point, they are fighting with wet noodles. That’s a good sign. And as to the Russians stories of ethnic cleansing, there may be intended irony in echoing the complaints of Kosovo.

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:47 am 19. chuck,:

Back when the USSR first fell apart, Bush I was being interviewed. The reporter observed that he didn’t seem very excited by this spectacular victory over the Communist enemy. When the elder Bush mumbled something about just not being a very enthusiastic kind of guy, I thought to myself, geez, what a wet blanket. But now I think he saw Pandora’s Box popping open. And maybe that’s what Putin meant when he said that the collapse of the Soviet Union was a geopolitical tragedy. Certainly, the world was a quieter place when Moscow’s boot was planted firmly down on that troublesome corner of the world.

As for Georgia, I am reminded of certain promises made to Poland shortly after the Munich Crisis of ‘38.
Maybe this time it would be better for everybody, including the Georgians, if we stiffed them.

Aug 8, 2008 - 7:06 am 20. wretchard:

It’s just a hunch, but my guess is that we’ve seen the worst or soon will. Georgia doesn’t have the horses, and from what I’ve seen Russia doesn’t have the desire to take this to the limit. Nobody is playing for keeps. They’re sending signals, not fixing to gut each other. But as I said, it’s just an intuition.

Aug 8, 2008 - 7:10 am 21. Mike Sylwester:

Forty-three countries competed in the Eurovision Song Contest. The results included the following:

1. Russia
2. Ukraine
4. Armenia
8. Azerbaydzhan
9. Israel
11. Georgia

Maybe South Ossetia will send a group of its own singers next year. That might be a better guarantee of its sovereign independence than any guarantee from Russia, the United Nations or any other supposed protector.

Aug 8, 2008 - 7:21 am 22. ZEITGEIST:

[...] IN THE CAUCASUS: “In a move which has put it squarely on a collision course with Putin’s Russia, Georgian troops [...]

Aug 8, 2008 - 7:28 am 23. kris sargent:

War, it seems, is bad for business.

Aug 8, 2008 - 7:28 am 24. FRED:

Debka has an interesting post up on the Israeli connection claiming the Russians are essentially turning the regions on and off to accomidate their desitre to ensure Capsian oil is routed through their pipleines vs. southern alternatives down theough ME. I suppose this anwsers the quetion of who is pulling the Strings in Russia, Putin all over the wires..

Aug 8, 2008 - 7:33 am 25. Mark:

RWE makes a good point re. following the oil. US policy and alliances are a threat to Russian oil markets, with all of their geopolitical consequences.

Here’s a NPR report from 2006:

“April 18, 2006 · The tiny former Soviet Republic of Azerbaijan is on the verge of an oil boom. This summer, a 1,000-mile pipeline is expected to begin pumping oil from Azerbaijan’s Caspian Sea coast, through neighboring Georgia, to a Turkish port on the Mediterranean Sea.

Industry experts say this pipeline will allow Azerbaijan to eventually quadruple its oil exports, but political opponents in Azerbaijan worry that the oil money will help the government of the former Soviet republic stifle pro-democracy efforts.

The $4 billion project is backed by the United States, in part because it gets Caspian Sea oil wealth out to the international market, without going through Azerbaijan’s much larger neighbors, Russia and Iran.

Azerbaijan already has more than a century of experience with oil and the money that comes with it.

Aug 8, 2008 - 7:34 am 26. Mike Sylwester:

South Ossetia has been maintaining its autonomy from Georgia for hundreds of years, and Russia has been involved in that conflict for hundreds of years. About two-thirds of the population of South Ossetia considers itself to be Ossetian and about a third considers itself to be Georgian. During the Soviet period, South Ossetia was an autonomous oblast within the Georgian republic.

The Russians’ involvement in this old and continuing ethnic conflict is a continuum of generally maintaining lawful and peaceful transport and development throughout in the Caucasus region. This is not a conflict that is being “turned on and off” by Russia because of plans to develop oil pipelines in the large region of the Caucasus.

If any country is being mischievous right now in this conflict, I would have to say it’s the USA.

Aug 8, 2008 - 7:52 am 27. chuck,:

is it true that the Russians will permit us to resupply the NATO forces in Afghanistan through their territory should the routes through Pakistan be lost to us? If so, doesn’t that compel us to “understand” Russia’s position here and, for that matter, on many others?

Aug 8, 2008 - 7:56 am 28. nobozons:

Since Putin has interest in returning to Cuba, perhaps we should take in unless he backs off the Caucasus. Could address two concerns with a single threat.

Aug 8, 2008 - 8:11 am 29. kris sargent:

Something else to consider. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline was sabotaged in Turkey by the PKK, on August 6, 2008, and has been offline since. On August 7, 2008, Saakashvili launches an offensive to take back South Ossetia.

Can somebody who’s better informed than I am tell me how to read this? My intuition is that Saakashvili made an opportunistic move: since the Georgian government does not want to be responsible for a pipeline turnoff (stability and security being the reasons why Georgia got the pipeline in the first place), the pipeline being already turned off gave Saakashvili a window of lowered political risk — vis-a-vis its pipeline partners, who would be very upset if precipitous action led to the Georgian part of the pipeline being damaged, and vis-a-vis the West, who want to avoid any increase in oil price due to supply shortage or higher risk-premiums.

Does this make sense? Can anybody tell what that means for where we’re headed?

Aug 8, 2008 - 8:11 am 30. El Jefe Maximo:

I can’t imagine that Moscow would openly intevene in this manner (covertly or semi-officially’s another matter) unless they thought the US was way too busy, or going to be way too busy, elsewhere. Does this tell us about, say, Tehran’s future?

Aug 8, 2008 - 8:19 am 31. monkeyfan:

These potential foreign entanglements provide all the more reason to secure domestic oil supply and energy independence methinks.

We can better support the causes of liberty around the world if we aren’t compromised by the need for this sort of realpolitik eggshell dance with fascist tyrants.

Aug 8, 2008 - 8:19 am 32. CPT. Charles:

Update: one of our co-workers is an ex-Russian [now American], and is plugged into the Russian news sites. Take the info for what it’s worth.

A.] 1000+dead civilians in Tskhinvali [S. Osettian captial].

B.] There’s a butt-load more than a brigade [150+ vehicles] heading towards S. Osettia. And no, the Russkies aren’t releasing the numbers.

On the domestic news side, apparently Bush and Putin have had a ‘chat’.

Aug 8, 2008 - 8:29 am 33. Yashmak:

“Does this tell us about, say, Tehran’s future?”

I don’t really think so. Russia knows America’s attention is rather sporadic. We address one problem area, while completely ignoring others. I think Russia believes that it will be extremely difficult to get Americans very interested in what goes on in Georgia.

Aug 8, 2008 - 8:29 am 34. dchamil:

The Caucasus range has been called “The Mountain of Tongues” because of the many ethnic groups there.

Aug 8, 2008 - 8:32 am 35. Mike Sylwester:

The Russians have military bases in South Ossetia because the Ossetians there want the Russians to have bases there. It’s a win-win arrangement for the Russians and the Ossetians, and it started centuries ago, when Russia was ruled by the Romanov Tsarist Dynasty.

During those same olden days, the Russians established military bases in Georgia and in Armenia in similar win-win arrangements, in order to protect those two Christian countries from the Ottoman Empire.

Russia has enjoyed the ability to establish military bases and to conduct military operations in the Caucasus for centuries, because a lot of people there have perceived the Russians to be protectors, as honest brokers in a viciously violent region.

These arrangements started long before there was any petroleum drilling, pipelines or refineries in the Caucasus.

Aug 8, 2008 - 8:32 am 36. CPT. Charles:

PS- The opinion of my Russian-speaking source: …’this is getting serious. This is bad.”

Aug 8, 2008 - 8:38 am 37. Konyok:

It appears that Comrade Sylwester has a soft spot for Russia’s ambitions in the near abroad.
Puzzle me this. Why does the same Russian Federation have such tender fraternal concerns for the self determination of national minorities in Georgia after destroying Grozny to prevent the succession of Chechnya? Could it be that the micro states of Abkhazia and South Ossetia would have no long term choice but union with Russia?
There is plenty of boneheadedness to go around in the Caucasus. Saakashvili has used the Rose Revolution and threats from Russia to create a near dictatorship. Georgians in general have guaranteed decades of poverty by replacing the Cyrillic alphabet with the ancient Georgian script, sans ascii code. Russians are eager to prove that they still have some kind of military competence and the Caucasus is a splendidly isolated and *safe* place to do so. (Also, an opportunity to send a strong message to Yushchenko and others … )
Far from being the mischief maker, the US is in it’s typical posture of muddling through a maze of imcomprehensible hillbilly feuds.

Aug 8, 2008 - 8:42 am 38. programmer:

Actually, there is a lot of good reasons for the USA to stay out of this.

1) Now Europe and others will learn why their parents feared the USSR (and looked to the US for support).
2) We will assure Russia we are not interested in stomping on their turf.
3) One less small country to expose us to foreign policy turmoil
4) We give him Georgia, he stays out of Cuba.
5) Ok, enough for now.

Aug 8, 2008 - 8:43 am 39. Russia invades Georgia « Internet Scofflaw:

[...] invades Georgia I wish more people were paying attention to this.  (Via Instapundit.)  Reuters story [...]

Aug 8, 2008 - 8:44 am 40. Alexis:

Because of Afghanistan, the situation in Georgia takes on added significance. As a diplomatic option, the United States needs a trans-Caucasus air corridor between Romania and Afghanistan. Without at least the theoretical option of that air corridor, the United States becomes more dependent upon either Russia or Pakistan for resupply.

Russia is unhappy with the situation in Kosovo, so the Caucasus is the perfect place to put pressure on American supply lines. This is Putin’s way of telling the Americans that we will need to play ball with him if we seek to resupply our forces in Afghanistan. And given that Pakistan appears to have made a strategic decision to support the Taliban and al-Qaeda against the United States, this adds more cards into Putin’s hands.

Aug 8, 2008 - 8:58 am 41. Douglas Bogle:

who can handle this, barry or mac?

the world will test the USA, and if we blink they will pounce.

russia and china.

Aug 8, 2008 - 8:59 am 42. John:

Why so many references to the United States having *anything* to do with this? These are two countries here, handling their own business. Unless there are human rights violations, as an American, I say we stay out of this. War sucks, but we can’t stop all fighting at all costs. This looks like a legitimate spat here. Stopping fighting for the sake of fighting is not the answer, there is an underlying struggle here and that needs to be resolved. Either fighting or diplomacy, but eventually it will be neutralized.

If we see foul play, sure we can help out, but we’ve got our own problems. Many of which are caused by a history of sticking our noses where they don’t belong.

Focus on our own liberty, not foreign entanglements.

sheesh.

Aug 8, 2008 - 9:03 am 43. programmer:

Good reasons for the USA to stay out of this.
6) Stretches Russias military somewhat (maybe).
7) Sends chills up and down Turkey’s back(????)
Gives China something to worry about (maybe).

Aug 8, 2008 - 9:06 am 44. Cannoneer No. 4:

Read Wu Wei, Brit expat in Tbilisi

Aug 8, 2008 - 9:25 am 45. chuck,:

I’d put the following proposal to Putin. Recognition of the territories of the former USSR as being Russian, with the exception of the three Baltic nations, plus US support against any threats in the form of China or Islam. In return I would require peace and quiet over there, discreet assistance where needed (such as resupplying the forces in Afghanistan), and faithful delivery of oil and gas.

In short, an alliance. The US and Russia need each other to buy time. Time for us to develop our own energy resources. Time for Russia to restock its people.

One cubicle gulag zek’s opinion.

Aug 8, 2008 - 9:26 am 46. cedarford:

US should stay out of this. S Ossetia is in Russia’s sphere, most of it’s residents hold Russian passports.
Extending NATO right up to the Bear’s border is a strategic blunder.

And if we stop sticking America’s nose into matters we have no vital interest in, but Russia does, perhaps Russia might be a little more forthcoming on matters essential to our vital interests – Central Asian oil “arrangements”. nuclear Iran, and limited missile defense.

Aug 8, 2008 - 9:34 am 47. cjm:

the prc can not be happy the russians caused all this uproar on the very day the bejing olympics open. they have to be taking this personally. whose to say that putin didn’t launch this assault for just that reason — petty jealousy.

Aug 8, 2008 - 9:39 am 48. Wadeusaf:

NATO?

Aug 8, 2008 - 9:50 am 49. Cannoneer No. 4:

Georgia Pulls Out Troops from Iraq amid ‘Russian Aggression’

When asked by an anchor what would he ask to President Bush to do for Georgia, Saakashvili responded, that Georgia now was in the same situation as Finland was in 1939 when the Soviet Union attacked it. “It seems adventures are back… It seems that freedom and human rights are endangered again,” he added.

“This is the moment of truth for everybody, for President Bush, for the United States, for the rest of western world… This is really a crucial moment for history of Europe and high time to wake up for everybody.”

Aug 8, 2008 - 10:00 am 50. exhelodrvr:

PROGRAMMER,
“Now Europe and others will learn why their parents feared the USSR”

And maybe realize the importance of stronger militaries? And that this is an example of real aggression, not the made-up aggression they like to accuse the U.S. of?

nah.

Aug 8, 2008 - 10:07 am 51. CPT. Charles:

Wadeusaf…which country has the EU by the energy short hairs?????

Aug 8, 2008 - 10:09 am 52. Yashmak:

“As a diplomatic option, the United States needs a trans-Caucasus air corridor between Romania and Afghanistan.”

Looking at the map, I don’t see how Russia’s actions block that. The area in question is a relatively small block of territory centered on the northern border of Georgia. It doesn’t split the republic by any means.

And given the reports I’ve read of the last couple of days, indicating the Taliban is conducting bombings in Pakistan to get the government to stop their crackdown on the tribal areas, I’d stop rather short of saying that Pakistan has thrown in its lot with the Taliban or Al Qaeda.

Aug 8, 2008 - 10:22 am 53. CPT. Charles:

Well, this will warm cedarford’s heart…granted it is Debkafile, but does mention facts not previously known [be me]. And certain parts do make sense, now.

http://debka.com/article.php?aid=1358

Aug 8, 2008 - 10:22 am 54. Cannoneer No. 4:

A Step At A Time

GEORGIA & SOUTH CAUCASUS

Aug 8, 2008 - 10:36 am 55. dpprof:

The link below has the following headline:

GEORGIA: TBILISI DECLARES CEASE-FIRE IN SOUTH OSSETIA

http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav080708.shtml

Aug 8, 2008 - 10:46 am 56. Cannoneer No. 4:

THE GOALS BEHIND MOSCOW’S PROXY OFFENSIVE IN SOUTH OSSETIA

Russia usually stages military incidents in Georgia in August, while European officials take their vacations.

Aug 8, 2008 - 11:09 am 57. Al:

All this talk about “Russian aggression” obfuscates the fact that it was Saakashvili who started this round of violence.

From the BBC link:

“Witnesses said the regional capital was devastated. Lyudmila Ostayeva, 50, told AP news agency: ‘I saw bodies lying on the streets, around ruined buildings, in cars. It’s impossible to count them now. There is hardly a single building left undamaged.’”

Georgian troops did it.

How Ossetians could possibly want to be a part Georgia after this?

Aug 8, 2008 - 11:10 am 58. RWE:

Georgia has asked to be part of NATO, and the U.S. has indicated support for that request. The implications are obvious.
The Rooskis don’t like the idea.

Georgia is an ally of the U.S. Not a potential ally, but a real one. Did not know it until a hour ago, but Georgia sent 1,000 troops to support our operations in Iraq. And they have announced that they are recalling them to use to defend against the Russians.

Regardless of the real value of Georgia to the U.S at this point, we have to realize that cutting them loose will have broader implications in terms of our credibility. Much of the War on Terror is about forming alliances with countries capable of doing us some good. Not France and Germany, which are so important to the Democrats but which seem to have about the same relevance to the current conflict as Bolivia and Paraguay did to WWII, but people where the action is. Or where the action will be if we don’t stop it first.

I note that Georgia has aircraft among its manufactured products. Anyone know what they build?

Aug 8, 2008 - 11:11 am 59. Mike Sylwester:

Konyok:
“Why does the same Russian Federation have such tender fraternal concerns for the self determination of national minorities in Georgia after destroying Grozny to prevent the succession of Chechnya?”
————–

The Ossetians have welcomed a Russian military presence and so the Russians are able and happy to protect them. This was a situation that fortunately fell into Russia’s lap when Georgia declared its independence from the USSR and then South Ossetia declared its own independence from Georgia. It happened without much of Russia’s doing, and Russia and South Ossetia both have been happy with the arrangement.

If Georgia wants to re-incorporate South Ossetia, then maybe it should guarantee permanent future funding of schools, libraries, mass media and other institutions that will maintain the Ossetian language. It might cost some money that the Georgians consider to be a total waste, but this eternal ethnic conflict is costing a lot of money anyway.

Chechnya had a real opportunity to obtain its independence through patient peaceful political action and compromise, but blew away that opportunity to hell by terrorizing non-Chechnyan inhabitants, harboring a gigantic, international Mafia and then allying itself with Moslem terrorist groups.

Chechnya is a nation that has behaved itself stupidly. Chechnyans have kidnapped school-buses full of children, blown up airplanes, taken entire theater-fulls of civilians hostage. It’a nation that has made itself infamous by providing much of the elite body guard force for the Al Qaeda leadership. They are a special category of crazies who taunt the world, “Bomb us to smitherines!!”

Like the people in the USA, the Russians are tolerant and even proud of the ethnic diversity in their huge country and sphere of influence. The Russians can get along fine with their neighbors in the Caucasus. Russia’s history there is not all black. There have been and still are a lot of good relations there. Much good has happened in the Caucasus because Russia has been involved there through the past centuries.

Aug 8, 2008 - 11:14 am 60. Wadeusaf:

The United States cannot allow this aggression to continue unchecked. But Georgia should not have allowed itself to get sucked into a battle with rebels while a battalion of Russian “Peace keepers” were present in Ossetia. It is the kind of bone head move that gave Russia the option of intervention in the first place. Having determined to play the role of regional influencer NATO needs to assert itself on the side of Georgia with the offer of free and secure transport out of Ossetia for any Russian passport holding person. It is humanitarian and it removes the balkanizing excuse Putin is using. Former Ambassador Holbrook is crowing I told you so, loudly. but makes no connection between the moves in Kosovo to the occurrences in Ossetia. The challenge to Putin must be to prove his case before the UN, to prove the charge of ethnic cleansing before the world or remove his forces from Georgia. Or what?

NATO is the issue, not willing to fight not willing to even enforce the rule of law within their own individual countries the European States have signaled a willingness to agree to anything as long as they are threatened with the potential for violence. They would give away Denmark, they would give up liberty, they will sell Afghanistan and Iraq down the river again in hopes of appeasing a weak enemy (Al Qaeda) So Russia figures it can get a lot more than a little lawlessness with a real show of force.

Perhaps we need to include the Russian Peace Keepers within a NATO Peace Keeping force.

Aug 8, 2008 - 11:17 am 61. Yashmak:

“Georgia is an ally of the U.S. Not a potential ally, but a real one. ” – RWE

What treaty have we signed with them? Name it.

Just because they cooperated with us in Iraq, doesn’t mean we are tied by any treaty obligations to come to their defense. They are NOT a member of NATO, we have signed no pact to come to their defense, and even if we had, it’d likely contain verbiage making aid from the US contingent upon aggression launched upon them unprovoked. . .it looks like Georgia may have provoked this.

Aug 8, 2008 - 11:26 am 62. chuck,:

It’d be truly low and ratty to sell Georgia down the river, but we may have to. Practically speaking, what can we do for them? The EU/NATO are hostage to Russian oil and gas. The supplying of the forces in Afghanistan will be hostage to Russian good will, if Pakistan goes to hell. The US and Russia are two large but brittle countries that need to get along, and when they don’t, China chuckles.

Aug 8, 2008 - 11:27 am 63. Cannoneer No. 4:

Allies

Aug 8, 2008 - 11:40 am 64. Wadeusaf:

If Pakistan goes to hell, I don’t think that will hurt our cause in Afghanistan, (China wouldn’t object either).

If Iran (big Russian contracts on Nukes NG, pipelines and other armaments with the potential for huge reconstruction contracts), Georgia (again a tap for gas), and Pakistan go off at the same time, and NATO flinches, we’re not going to have to choose isolationism.

Aug 8, 2008 - 11:43 am 65. Cannoneer No. 4:

RWE — Su-25K Frogfoot

Aug 8, 2008 - 11:50 am 66. Kim Zigfeld:

GEORGIA TIMES NEWSPAPER
http://www.geotimes.ge/index.php?m=home

Aug 8, 2008 - 11:56 am 67. Cannoneer No. 4:

Georgia conflict: Roar of war as jets fill the air

Exhausted soldiers, talking in low voices or staring blankly into space, propped up walls in the town. An atmosphere of tension and expectation hung heavily in the air.

“The fighting has been hard and it will get harder yet,” one young corporal said. “We will win though, just like David slew Goliath.”

The same resigned determination seems to have settled over the town’s inhabitants.

“We want peace,” said Nino Zuabashvili, a shopkeeper. “But we are fed up with being bullied by Russia. What is Georgia’s is Georgia’s and every one of us is prepared to die to protect our sovereignty.”

Aug 8, 2008 - 11:57 am 68. Steve:

Remembered reading something about South Ossetia recently. Found it:

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200804/uranium-smuggling

Perhaps this is why we are at least a little bit interested in this?

Aug 8, 2008 - 11:59 am 69. Konyok:

Sylwester,

Russia has done wonderful things “civilizing” the Caucasus, most notably perhaps being to drag those peoples into the meatgrinder of creating the “New Soviet Man.”
Being Volga German myself, I have a lot of sympathy for the Chechens who have been one peed off people since kindly Koba practiced genocide Soviet style on them.
The boundaries were drawn by the Russians, placing half of the Ossetians in Russia and the other half in Georgia. Does this Russian solicitude for national aspirations extend to Northern Ossetia?
As to Russian multi-culti sentiment, what do you make of the ubiquitous Russian term “chernozhop?”

Tonight, I will make it a point to buy a nice bottle of Georgian brandy and some excellent Georgian red wine.

Aug 8, 2008 - 12:10 pm 70. Marine 83:

I have to say that in my eyes the Georgians are our allies. They are in Iraq and that is good enough. Not supporting the Georgians will go down in history as like Britten/France selling out of Czechoslovakia prior to WWII. Appeasement always costs more in the long run, yet certain members of society never learn.

Aug 8, 2008 - 12:46 pm 71. Frank:

I tend to agree with Wretchard on this. Seems to be a game of signals. I think the Russians pushed to hard and Georgia pushed back saying,”We can create a lot of trouble down here.” I don’t think the Georgian’s intended to overtake South Ossetia. If they had they would have severed the one access point for Russian’s to get reinforcements there.

With Russian’s entering the South Ossetian capital and Georgian troops withdrawing I think the worst is over.

Aug 8, 2008 - 12:46 pm 72. Russian Dragons « Civilian Irregular Information Defense Group:

[...] Many links in the comments over at The Belmont Club. [...]

Aug 8, 2008 - 12:59 pm 73. Assistant Village Idiot:

Russia does have the impression that others are always trying to steal from them. But Russia is paranoid, so its impression has little meaning. Russia is only a semi-rational actor in international affairs. As for the Ossetians, they themselves have persecuted the Ingush. Of course they have Russian passports – the Russians have been giving them to them, encouraging their separatism. Mike Sylvester notes the generally peaceable attitudes of the Russians and their history of stabilizing and civilizing the Caucasus. Which explains why it is such a haven of freedom now.

“Stable” is a good thing, but not to the exclusion of all other values.

Aug 8, 2008 - 1:02 pm 74. Alexis:

Russia’s push in south Ossetia may backfire if it actually puts Ossetian independence on the agenda. If a united Ossetia (including both north and south Ossetia) had its independence recognized by Russia and Georgia, the result could be Georgia in NATO, a strong Ossetian buffer state, and reduced Russian influence in the Caucasus. I don’t think for a second that Russia is serious about promoting Ossetian independence; it’s more interested in using ethnic rivalry to eventually annex parts of Georgian territory for itself.

I think any war between Russia and Georgia will be minor because it will be kept minor. Georgia will probably get resupplied in a manner that won’t get into the newspapers, just enough to keep Russia from winning but not enough to make the Georgian government get cocky and start thinking that it can call the tune for its western allies.

I think both NATO and Russia need to calm down and take a deep breath. Both sides need to realize that the very name “Ukraine” means “frontier” and exists as a demographic neutral zone between the Russian orbit and the West. Neither side can lay claim on Ukraine without polarizing it. The Baltic states are culturally western, while Belorus would probably be better off if it were annexed by the Russian Federation. Likewise, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan would also likely improve their human rights records if they became part of Russia again. (And that says something…)

The Caucasus is more complicated because it has the same basic problem as the Balkans — it is a mountainous region once run by the Ottoman Empire with more than its share of tiny warring nations with long memories. Given the disaster that happened the last time a Georgian controlled Russia, it is no less in Russia’s interest than our own that Russia should not annex Georgia.

Aug 8, 2008 - 1:34 pm 75. John Samford:

“We gotta stay cool. The probability is that it will be a limited war if you let it alone. If Russia had a huge force ready to invade, we would have picked it up.”

I seldom disagree with you wretcherd, but this time you couldn’t be more wrong.

Ever hear of the Alamo?
Russian communism is crawling back up out of the grave. Time to kick it (in the face) back into the grave and throw in a little extra dirt.
ONLY if the West(USA, the rest of NATO would have trouble fighting off a 3rd world nation) STOPS THINKING CONVENTIONAL.
We need to do a little 4th generation warfare on the Russians.
The US Military will get a chance to fight an enemy with a logistics tail. Cut it off.
A war in The Caucasus will be an air war. A chance to get the F-22’s some live fire practice. Let the Russian tankers dodge RPG’s while hoping the fuel truck shows up pretty soon now. All the time with one eye on the sky, looking for those #$%& Jabo’s.
It won’t take long before the Russians reconsider their land grab. As long as there is no direct attacks on Russia itself.
If we don’t fight now, we will fight later, when it’s Poland, the Ukraine or Germany. Or will we? If we won’t fight now, how will the threat of fighting later be creditable?
Europe is in the position of being a large suitcase full of 100 Euro notes, sitting on the curb in a BAD part of town, guarded by a 4 year old with a cap gun. Sooner or later, somebody will come along and take it.

Fight now, while the odds are all on our side. Fight now, while the enemy is over extended and vulnerable. Fight now, while we have a staunch ally.

“There is no avoiding war; it can only be postponed to the advantage of
others.”
- Niccolò Machiavelli

Aug 8, 2008 - 1:40 pm 76. Roderick Reilly:

I think we should send Jimmuh Carter to the region to settle the matter. After all, he’s from Georgia.

Aug 8, 2008 - 1:45 pm 77. John Samford:

“We’ve built up tons of levers and instruments over the years, giving us the potential to crank out a real diplomatic symphony.”

ALL useless, as history has proven many times and is proving yet again. There are none so blind as those who refuse to see.
Are those Russian MBT’s crushing the Rose revolution or the Orange revolution? Soft power ALWAYS bows to hard power. Always. Just ask the Lebanese.
Decades building up those ‘levers and insruments’ and they are blown away in minutes by an Armored Division.
If your solution is MORE levers and instruments, I have to ask if you checked the kool-aid before you started sipping. What does it mean when you keep doing the same thing over and over in the same situation, all the while expecting different results?
Time to rethink things, maybe?

“The Americans will always do the right thing… After they’ve exhausted all the alternatives.”
- Winston Churchill

Aug 8, 2008 - 1:54 pm 78. cjm:

report that 5 russian planes have been shot down so far. guess we loaded them up with some good toys. we should cut a deal with the georgians; in return for materiel aid, they rename Ossetia to “New Alabama”.

Aug 8, 2008 - 1:56 pm 79. Konyok:

If the number of Russian planes shot down is true, this is a major embarrassment for Medvedev/Putin. On the heels of the Israeli incursion into Syria, this doesn’t help the reputation of Russian arms.
With a 6.5% drop in the Russian stock market, this might be a real set back for Volodya Putin.

Aug 8, 2008 - 2:15 pm 80. A Light Goes Out in Europe - Mythusmage Opines:

[...] Update: The Belmont Club has more information. [...]

Aug 8, 2008 - 2:50 pm 81. Matthew:

Georgia’s main aim in its offensive in South Ossetia appears to have been a swift advance on the separatist capital Tskhinvali to seize Ossetian territory and achieve a fait accompli before Russia is able to respond.

The timing may have been chosen to coincide with Vladimir Putin’s visit to Beijing for the Olympic Opening Ceremony. Given Mr Putin’s significant role in Russian foreign policy, Georgia may have hoped that his absence would slow down any Russian response.

In the fighting so far, Georgia has used its superiority in artillery and air power to drive the poorly equipped Ossetian forces from villages near Tskhinvali. This has allowed it to surround the city and, barring a short ceasefire so civilians can withdraw, continue its assault.

The Government of President Saakashvili has increased its spending on Armed Forces in recent years. Together with military aid and training from the US, Britain and Turkey and the experience of its forces in Iraq, this has helped to modernise and improve the professionalism of certain units. However, many units, including the large reserve forces, remain poorly equipped and trained.

Georgia has been able to overrun the comparatively weak Ossetian forces, but a potential conflict with Russia would be a very different affair. Russia’s forces are overwhelmingly superior and their equipment more modern and more serviceable than Georgia’s.

Should Russia involve itself more directly in the conflict, its likely strategy would be to secure all land and air entry points into the region and then build up its ground forces. Such operations could be supported by guerrilla attacks by surviving South Ossetian militia units. This would quickly give Russia air and artillery superiority relatively and it is unlikely that Georgian forces would be able to withstand any such assault for long. Indeed, Georgia’s forces would be forced to withdraw within a matter of days.

It is unlikely that Georgia wants to engage Russian forces directly and if it does seize Tskhinvali, it will want to obtain some form of ceasefire. The situation remains extremely volatile and there is a real risk that Georgia and Russia will become embroiled in direct conflict. This would have wideranging and damaging implications for the region and may put at risk major energy projects, such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, threatening European supplies.

Aug 8, 2008 - 3:04 pm 82. wretchard:

Please look at this Google terrain map of the area. It will be readily apparent that Georgia is behind the huge wall of the Caucasus. So is South Ossetia. This has two implications. The first is that South Ossetia’s long term value to Russia is as route across the Caucasus and as a dagger pointed at Georgia and, potentially, Turkey. The second is that in the short run, Russia is unlikely to develop major combat power across the mountain range. Unless it uses the sea flanks or builds up major infrastructure, Russia’s menace is long term rather than short term.

So while Georgia may have to lose South Ossetia, Georgia itself should not be sold down the drain by NATO. One option is to persuade Tblisi to forgo South Ossetia in exchange for a hard security guaranty for Tblisi against aggression. Moscow will find that holding on to South Ossetia, whose inhabitants have no particular love for it, were they not out for independence, will be expensive. Russians will become the occupiers if they don’t leave South Ossetians to their country.

One way to achieve this is to send private reassurances to Tblisi now that its national core will be protected, within reason, in exchange for a withdrawal from South Ossetia and simultaneously send a signal to Moscow that Tbilisi won’t fight for disputed territory but it will stand fast against incursions into the core of Georgia. One scenario would be to send a symbolic air superiority force to Turkey for exercises coupled with a conciliatory diplomacy and a proposal to put Georgia on the fast track to NATO membership.

Aug 8, 2008 - 3:08 pm 83. cjm:

what if russian armor proves just as “effective” as their jets? what if they *can’t* project *any* force into the area? we have gps guided artillery, so maybe the georgians do too. i am looking for reports of tank killings as a sign of this being more than signalling. lighting a fire in the russian back country will inhibit them from making trouble elsewhere (like cuba).

Aug 8, 2008 - 3:50 pm 84. NahnCee:

Why so many references to the United States having *anything* to do with this? These are two countries here, handling their own business.

The first thing I thought when the news came out about Georgia shooting down 2 Russian jets was where did they get the tools to do that? Is that an easy thing to do, shoot down Russian jets?

I’m thinking we’ve already supplied the Georgians with some nifty-neat thingys. Whether Russia is able to trundle out some shells with Hewlett Packard stamped on them remains to be seen, but I’m subliminally convinced that we are already involved.

Aug 8, 2008 - 3:56 pm 85. cedarford:

Wretchard – Moscow will find that holding on to South Ossetia, whose inhabitants have no particular love for it, were they not out for independence, will be expensive.

It is rare that the well-travelled Richard Fernandez is misinformed on the status of a people, but in the case of the Ossetians, he is.

Russia has been the protector of the Ossetians since Tsarist days against Muslim depredation. Same with Georgia, Bulgaria, Serbia.
With the Ossetians, even more so since N Ossetia is an autonomous area within Russia and most S Ossetians hold Russian citizen passports. The N Ossetians were of course hit by Inguish and Chechen muslim terrorists at Beslan, and Russia redoubled its efforts as protectors of the N & S Ossetians after that.

Marine 83:
I have to say that in my eyes the Georgians are our allies. They are in Iraq and that is good enough.

That is a silly criteria to say we have obligations to provoke major power confrontation, because some chickenshit little country once fought with us. We “owe” Syria, KSA for fighting alongside us in the Gulf War exactly —- what? Iran was a steady WWII ally, as was the non-chickenshit Soviet Union…

John Samford – We need to do a little 4th generation warfare on the Russians.
The US Military will get a chance to fight an enemy with a logistics tail. Cut it off.
A war in The Caucasus will be an air war. A chance to get the F-22’s some live fire practice. Let the Russian tankers dodge RPG’s while hoping the fuel truck shows up pretty soon now. All the time with one eye on the sky, looking for those #$%& Jabo’s.
It won’t take long before the Russians reconsider their land grab. As long as there is no direct attacks on Russia itself.

Try not to be such a saber-waving idiot, John.

You are talking about direct attacks on Russian armed forces by US airpower, in an area Russia has controlled for 3 centuries, right across from the Russian border. That you claim you wish the F-22s not to attack targets within Russia, just their deployed forces…makes what you advocate no less idiotic.

Aug 8, 2008 - 4:09 pm 86. wretchard:

what if russian armor proves just as “effective” as their jets? what if they *can’t* project *any* force into the area?

Hearken back to Grozny. Yeltsin was in charge of Russia; the Chechens had provoked Moscow which sent in armored units backed by gunships and attack jets. But in their hastiness they moved improvised formations and untrained units under an improvised plan. The Maikop Brigade was annihilated in the area around the train station, losing every armored vehicle. The regimental commander was killed. After that debacle, the Russians pulled back and did it right. Or at least better. They turned Grozny into another Stalingrad and are still fighting the pacification as we speak. And they were on the north side of the Caucasus.

The danger to Russia here is not that the Georgians will beat them in pitched battle: the Russians can’t lose in a prolonged engagement. It’s that Putin may be humiliated if the Georgians pull a Maikop on him. Putin was swept into power on the perception he could reverse the Yeltsin’s record of humiliation. But if he sends a pickup force in to “teach” the Georgians a lesson, his force, strung out over the mountains, with limited ability to concentrate its superior force because of a bad road network, could get the Admiral Rozhestvensky treatment. Going back as far as Nicholas, Moscow has had a penchant for setting itself up for humiliation by embarking on these lunatic adventures.

But I’m guessing that Putin is no idiot. He won’t push a multidivisional force across the Caucasus. He doesn’t have one parked on the northern side of the Caucasus. We would have picked it up. A mechanized division on a road can be more than a 100 kilometers long. Not to mention the fueling points, trucks, depots, ammunition dumps, etc that go into feeding this beast. So if he goes across it will be from a “standing start”, meaning nearest first. If he does that … I don’t think he will. He knows the history of Grozny as well as anyone.

That’s why I’ve argued that this engagement will be limited in the short run. In the long run the Russians can build up in South Ossetia. But if core Georgia becomes a NATO member, then it will be no different than the situation in Western Europe: Russia will be stymied. Georgia’s play for South Ossetia is stupid on one level, but a Russian thrust into South Ossetia would be even more stupid. That would push Georgia into a hard alliance with the West and give Russia a bunch of restive Ossetians.

Aug 8, 2008 - 4:11 pm 87. wretchard:

Cedarford,

If you read my comments I have not advocated any attacks on Russia by any forces. Any deployments to allied countries. It’s common practice to send a signaling force forward, but not provocatively forward and usually as an aid to diplomacy. If you want to convince Georgia to pull back you must also convince Tblisi that their core country will be guaranteed. How do you send that signal? You send it by some symbolic, but nonprovocative gesture.

With regard to the Ossetians, I believe you are right about their closeness to Moscow and I am wrong. However, I am uncertain whether that closeness amounts to a desire for actual incorporation into Russia and not independence.

Aug 8, 2008 - 4:22 pm 88. Wadeusaf:

Georgia seems to believe South Ossetia is a different entity from North Ossetia, not just by virtue of being on different sides of the mountain but historically, language, culture and even their disposition toward Russians. The Southerners speak a version of Farsi, and the Ottomans left a gulf of distrust separating the south from the north. While there may be grounds for a separate peace withing Georgia, I would push for no political connection to the North.

On the map the place reminds me of the west bank.

Aug 8, 2008 - 4:26 pm 89. Michael:

How come west supports Georgia’s territorial integrity when they found it impossible to support the territorial integrity of Serbia before?

West should send a sharp warning to Georgia to stop this aggression against South Ossetia and just shut up about territorial integrity if they don’t support everywhere!

It is symbolic that Tbilisi launched the aggression on the anniversary of the fall of the Republic of Serbian Krajina. Its demise became a prologue to the next phase of the Balkan war – to the war in Kosovo, the NATO strikes on Serbia, and the humiliation and partition of the country. It has been said many times that the West is reusing the Balkan scenario in the Caucasus, and that this time Russia is planned to play the role of Serbia. Belgrade politicians who said 13 years ago that selling their countrymen in Croatia and Bosnia would preclude the Western aggression now pretend they were unaware that Serbia’s turn would come after the Serbs in Croatia and Bosnia.

Is Moscow capable to learn at least anything from the recent past? In 1995, the UN «peacekeepers» opened the way for the Croatian army which was killing Serbs, and these days we see Russian and Ossetian peacekeepers helplessly watch the Georgian artillery hammer residential quarters in Tskhinvali. In the Caucasus, the consequences of such helplessness are going to be catastrophic — there will be no respect for the weak country unable to normalize the situation at its border and to protect its citizens.

Aug 8, 2008 - 4:47 pm 90. poetess:

Independence for me
Independence for you
If you break international law,
It’ll break it too.

In the days of old
When men were bold
And diplomacy wasn’t invented
They took their might
And started a fight
And went on quite contented.

And the moral of the story…

Monkey see,
Monkey do.
If it’s good enough for Kosovo
It’s good enough for you.

Aug 8, 2008 - 4:50 pm 91. chris:

Why you all wonder about Russia’s reaction. Russia has all rights to defend and protect its citizens where ever they reside and if jeopardized by anyone. With Kosovo example the precedent is set and Russia has warned many times that this is going to happen. EU and the USA however choose to ignore this fact and since precedent is already set Russia has all rights to claim its province back.

Once you play with fire it is very easy for it to spiral out of control on the simpletons Russian, Georgian ,Ossetian it will be virtually impossible to put out. Other world idiots will also help by throwing gasoline on it. It is already the areas tinder box with Azerbaijan ,Armenia ,Turkey as disputing neighbors with long and very recent held war grievances.

Aug 8, 2008 - 4:59 pm 92. wretchard:

How come west supports Georgia’s territorial integrity when they found it impossible to support the territorial integrity of Serbia before?

I don’t know what the diplomats will say (they don’t recognize South Ossetia as a legal matter) but as a practical matter it seems unlikely that Georgia can hold on to South Ossetia in the long run. In the South Ossetia must be allowed to pursue its own destiny without a) Georgia feeling it has been sold down the river; b) it becoming a forward base for Russia south of the Caucasus.

Personally, I think it would be unwise for the West to support a Georgian move to physically destroy the Ossetian independence movement. However, a substantial Russian intervention into South Ossetia would be destabilizing. As long as the two forces remain in contact, the prospect for escalation remains. Fortunately, as I keep pointing out, the Caucasus mountains will make an escalation a slow affair. The two sides can be disentangled by diplomacy if diplomacy can move faster than trucks over the mountains. However.

The only way this conflict can escalate quickly is air warfare. If you look a few comments up, you’ll see how happy I was that the Russian attacks on Georgian airfields appeared small. I said that nobody was playing for keeps. That’s good. But if the Russians, for whatever irrational reason, maybe in response to a humiliating reversal on the ground, decided to Groznyize Tblisi we would have a huge crisis. That’s the only way this can go bad in a few hours.

Whenever China threatens Taiwan the US sends out a carrier battle group. Why? Not to invade China but to assure Taiwan that it won’t be invaded. This calms them down and prevents the ally from doing something stupid. Now you want to assure the Georgians their core country will be preserved so that you can persuade them to enter into a negotiated settlement with the Ossetians. You don’t want Tblisi to compound the mistake it has already made. You don’t want Russia to miscalculate. That’s why at the very beginning of this comment thread, I mentioned it might be useful to send an air superiority force to the area but in the theater. Maybe Turkey, if Turkey will allow. This is like the carrier battle group. And it’s purpose is not to attack Russia but calm the Georgians down.

Again, this has all the hallmarks of a limited war. If we can keep it that way, then you might wind up with a demilitarized neutral South Ossetia on the south side of the Caucasus and a shrunken Georgia, but one which is a formal ally. The Russians can claim whatever credit and feel whatever pride they like.

Aug 8, 2008 - 5:00 pm 93. Mike Sylwester:

Here is what Georgia has thrown away:

* any hope of ever incorporating South Ossetia

* the safety of the Georgians who live in South Ossetia

* any hope of joining NATO

* any hope that the Russians will leave South Ossetia

* much of the US population’s gratitude for helping us in Iraq

* much money that might have been invested in its own economic development instead of military defense during the next 20 years

* its own military confidence

* whatever good relations it had with Russia

It’s a total fiasco, without any redeedming value at all.

Aug 8, 2008 - 5:01 pm 94. wretchard:

The Guardian writes “Armed Cossacks pour in to fight Georgians”

At a special meeting of the UN security council yesterday morning, the United States called on the Kremlin to prevent irregulars entering South Ossetia via the 4km Roki tunnel, the republic’s only link with Russia. But at a meeting with the US president, George Bush, in Bejing, the Russian prime minister, Vladimir Putin, admitted “many volunteers” were heading to South Ossetia and it would be “very hard to maintain peace”.

In Abkhazia, Cossack and Chechen units fought side by side against Georgian troops, despite being historical enemies. Abkhazia has promised to help South Ossetia in its conflict with Georgia.

Ossetians in Vladikavkaz yesterday said they were hoping for a decisive strike by the Russian army to drive Georgia’s forces out of South Ossetia. There were emotional scenes in the city, as hundreds of protesters, mostly women, gathered outside the regional government headquarters and shouted, “Russia, save us!” …

Shota Kochiev, 60, said: “This is America’s doing. They are supporting Georgia’s mad lust for new land – our land.”

Aug 8, 2008 - 5:10 pm 95. cedarford:

Wretchard, I hope I didn’t imply you advocated US intervention. That was some of your other commentators.

And I only commented on the Ossetians because it appears only once in a blue moon that you misread one of the factions in an international situation you write about. My general opinion of you and your work is high enough that I wish you had a slot in US foreign policy circles as a person of influence…

It is important though – when a more powerful nation takes on the role of “protector” of a smaller nation or people then finds itself unable to defend them against a enemy invader. Then it becomes not just a matter of helping an ally out, but amending for the hurt and humiliation of being a “protector” and failing in that role. A feeling that goes beyond just humiliation at not looking to defend an area in a sphere of interest, but something deeply personal.

The Chinese felt that “great pain and humiliation” as they watched colonial nations and the Jap militarists carve up tribute states. Britain did over “losing”
democratic Greece, which was a great historical affinity since Byron’s days and a nation Britain had bled to help out – to the Nazis.
In the case of the Americans, failing to protect the Philippines, the Marianas Islands from the Japs made the effort to drive the invader out deeply personal for them in a way that “liberating” France or Tunisia failed to capture the same emotion..

Russia, prostrate in the 90s, had to sit back and suffer as it’s long-time religious compatriate and friend Serbia was bombed out. It is a humiliation still burning the Russians. And now as they have risen up from squalor and crony capitalism and Yeltsin-levels of corruption – there is no way they will be disgraced by letting Georgian aggression stand against a people they protect.

And, for me personally, I think we have had some dangerous Republican right-wingers and Dem interventionists taking a little too much delight in poking and creating major provocations against the still very dangerous Bear (NATO to Russia’s borders all along the Euro front, placing missile defense so close to Russia when facilities in W Europe would have served the same defense need). This has gone on over the last 12 years just because they thought Russia was weak and they could get away with it.
No sooner had Russia allowed us in Central Asia through their territory to fight terrorists than the Russians found neocon hard-liners trying to make the Central Asian ex-Soviet states less “Russian-friendly” and route their oil and mineral assets away from Russian distribution right into Western hands. Which lead the Russians and Chinese to form the Shanghai Pact basically to prevent “johnny come lately” US grasping in Central Asia in spheres the Russians, Chinese, and Ottomans vied over for centuries.

We have compelling vital interests with Russia related to Iran, N Korea nukes, avoiding a ruiniously expensive 2nd Cold War with them, their mutual assistance on nuclear arms limitation, global bio/nuke/chem warfare proliferation limitations, and mutual interests in the war against radical Islam. Keeping Russia from becoming so alienated by the West’s treatment of it that it falls into a solid anti-West alliance with China.

And, of course, our interest in Russia not becoming opposed to E Europe becoming peaceful and prosperous post-communist nations and creating trouble there.

All of which argue against continually beating up Russia and meddling in it’s internal affairs or those small nations and ethnicities solidly in Russia’s sphere of interest for centuries..

Aug 8, 2008 - 5:23 pm 96. fred:

I’m curious about the timing of this thing. This kind of operation cannot possibly have happened without prior planning and pre-position of forces. This is hardly a spontaneous event. In the line of one of the fleet admirals (ours) in the movie “The Hunt For Red October”: “Son, the Russians don’t take a dump without a plan.”

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:02 pm 97. Mike Sylwester:

An excellent statement, Cedarford.

Remember also that Tsarist Russia defended Christian Georgia and Armenia from the Ottoman Empire and kept the Ottoman Empire out of the Caucasus region. In addition, Tsarist Russia kept much of the Azerbaidzhan population independent from Iran.

Russia built the roads and ports in the region. Russia established and enforced the borders and generally maintained law and order and prevented ethnic warfare. Russia provided a common language. Russia provided opportunities for higher education and for career development.

It’s a mistake to think that most people in the Caucasus hate and reject Russia or to think that Russia is motivated by a desire to conquer and oppress the region’s natives. The USA should give Russia due respect for the many positive contributions it has made to the welfare and development of the Caucasus during the past three centuries. We should not be gearing up a propaganda campaign to smear Russia’s role negatively in this current crisis.

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:07 pm 98. Tony:

Wretchard asks “the question of the moment is, where are the F-22s?”

All I know about Georgia is I think that’s where Gurdjieff came from, but I’m pretty sure Georgia’s not on the list for the Raptors. We only have a couple dozen of them active, concentrating on strategic targets, not Hinds and divebombers down in the mud. imvho, o.c.

Besides, isn’t this a job for NATO, if anybody’s going to do anything?

Boy, the footage on TV makes shows heavy, sustained rocket bombardment, looks like ground to ground. Shock’n'awe, old school.

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:13 pm 99. buddy larsen:

The Cossacks are who Tsarist Russia used to subdue the peoples of Siberia, about the same time of USA’s Indian Wars. The Eurasian wild east was much bigger and bloodier than our wild west, too.

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:21 pm 100. John Samford:

“Iran was a steady WWII ally”

That is a lie. Iran was invaded by both the USSR and the UK. America did the occupation.

So while you may consider me an idiot, I just consider the source. A source who keeps a safe distance between his self and the facts.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Soviet_invasion_of_Iran

Giving you the benefit of the doubt, I don’t consider a treaty signed at gunpoint to be binding. Maybe you do.

Back on topic, I wondered where Baghdad Bob went and after reading Mike’s propaganda, I now know.
Mike’s ‘citizens’ have been waging guerrilla warfare against Russia for centuries. Maybe the word ‘citizen’ doesn’t mean what he thinks it does?

“Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.”
- Napoleon Bonaparte

Putin is making a serious mistake here. America SHOULD NOT let him recover from it. If handled properly, this could lead to regime change in Moscow. That would be good thing.
NO former KGB chief will ever be an ally of the USA.
Send 200 Javelins to Georgia. F-22’s out of Iraq have the range to put a CAP over Georgia.
That should be enough to show that America supports it’s allies and that the Russian Military is a cardboard Bear.
I want all you appeasers to realize that if the Russians get away with this, there is no reason Mexico can’t take back California on the same pretext, there being a higher percentage of Mexicans in California then there are Russians in Georgia (If California would be missed or not is another topic. Google Jesusland).
If you say that the US Army will prevent that, I agree but don’t see what your problem is with the Georgian army doing the same.
Russia having a bigger Army then Georgia doesn’t change the principals in play. It does bring up the question of ‘does might make right?’ If it does, then the USA has more might then Russia, so when we say go, they need to get a move on. If it doesn’t, then California belonga Mexico. Take your choice.

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:24 pm 101. cjm:

cedaford, how does putin’s ass taste? kind of like chicken maybe?

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:30 pm 102. cjm:

russia is our enemy, and the enemy of free thinking people everywhere. there is no greater source of evil on the planet. the jihadis are bad enough, but take russia out of the picture and they subside back into their caves. everything we can do to bleed them and misdirect them is worth doing. the sooner china devours them the better we will all be. as for serbia: sucks to be you.

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:33 pm 103. 3days:

Why no mention in the discussion here of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan_pipeline being severed by a big explosion earlier in the week.

I think the discussion here is focused to closely on Georgia and Ossetia. I suspect Russian control of the Caspian Oil, all of it, is the core nugget nobody wants to think about.

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:36 pm 104. John Samford:

“That you claim you wish the F-22s not to attack targets within Russia, just their deployed forces…”

NOT what I said;
“It won’t take long before the Russians reconsider their land grab. As long as there is no direct attacks on Russia itself.”

Deployed forces are fair game, although a waste of munitions. B-2’s NOT F-22’s. Russia still has conscripts. Kill the Generals and they will go home, just like all conscripts do.
Take down the Russian Command and Control.
The Russians are extremely weak. Rub their nose in it. As long as there is no threat to INVADE Russia, they will back down.
Force them to publicly back down and they will be good world citizens for the next few years. No more cutting off of energy supplies.
Russians are paranoid. Make them understand that survival depends on staying in our good graces. They will be nice. Stalin would understand perfectly what I’m saying.

“The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything.”
Joseph Stalin
Georgian Soviet politician (1879 – 1953)

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:45 pm 105. chuck,:

I’m with 3 days. Keep your eye on the barrel. Also, what exquisite revenge for the Russians to form an Axis of OIl with a greater Iran. Literally and figuratively, a very cold war for the USA. It’d be a short party for Russia however; China and Islam are dangerous neighbors. It’d be best for Russia and the USA to bury the hatchet and fast.

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:53 pm 106. fred:

I was thinking of the Caspian oil too, now that we are in a period where Putin has to take notice that the pressure on the U.S. is easing up (oil prices). I think Putin and his thugs may have played a role in the price run up in oil. Coordinated effort involving Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. The Chinks probably figured it would be a good time to go on a buying binge for oil, just as a way to help their comrades out – maybe do some serious harm to our economy and maybe even affect the outcome of our election. The BIG PRICE: Obonga wants to end the missile defense program. Now WHO is going to benefit the most from that????

The three amigos, that’s who: Russia, Iran, and China

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:54 pm 107. cjm:

the high oil prices have to be killing china, since they subsidise consumption. putin’s game of ginning up oil prices has run its course and is no longer effective. prices dropped substantially today in spite of the georgia situation.

Aug 8, 2008 - 6:58 pm 108. kabud:

the war has only one goal:

it is a signal to Tehran, Chavez, all the gangsters:

attack USA, KREMLIN WILL SUPPORT ANYTHING AGAINST USA

so the best reaction will be

to UNCOVER KGB ANTI-AMEICAN PROPAGANDISTIC STRATEGY

Looks like KGB is losing this time

well, BIG TIME!!!!

idiots they are and we will put them to justice and hang like we hung nazis

God Bless Georgia
God help Russian people to get rid of murderers in kremlin

Aug 8, 2008 - 7:29 pm 109. slade:

Keep your eye on the barrel. Also, what exquisite revenge for the Russians to form an Axis of OIl with a greater Iran. Literally and figuratively, a very cold war for the USA.

Whether Russia is able to trundle out some shells with Hewlett Packard stamped on them remains to be seen, but I’m subliminally convinced that we are already involved.

Shota Kochiev, 60, said: “This is America’s doing. They are supporting Georgia’s mad lust for new land – our land.”

USA will be involved and will be viewed as the aggressor, regardless of historical causation or modern realities.

Chickens coming to roost and dominos falling.

The reality of Peak Oil subsumed beneath global competition for resources.

Aug 8, 2008 - 7:36 pm 110. exhelodrvr:

As much as we dislike what the Russians are doing, you also have to be realistic about it.

We just don’t have the military to handle anything beyond relatively minor assistance to Georgia. If Russia calls our bluff, then we either have to back off, and really look stupid, or else open up another front. WHich, of course, would provide the ideal opportunity for Iran to do something.

And if we do something militarily against Russia, and they back down, it’s almost as bad. It would be huge PR defeat for us, based on how it would be protrayed, and would be used by Putin to drum up anti-Americanism and to solidify his own hold, based on the U.S. being an “external threat” to Mother Russia.

The best approach is diplomatic, quiet economic pressure, or threats thereof, with quiet economic carrots offered. And if Georgia and Russia are smart, they can both walk away looking good.

Aug 8, 2008 - 7:41 pm 111. kabud:

wanted to share this as well, it is some food for though.
———-
Just one comment: google capitalization is about the total of all russian oil, gas, everything))))

wikimapia could be not far, so here are NEW rulers of russia and they are complete idiots:
————–
i posted- FPM removed it : WAR HAS STARTED
The strategic sequence is unfolding NOW:
Yesterday a Georgian activist informed me that his 3 youtube accounts with several hundreds of videos were closed

that was the most important video resource on the web that was rigorously anti-kremlin

look what he wrote to me at 10 pm on 7th of August 2008:

….e-mail from youtube with warning terms violation of user )

putin has long hands but we have much more longer )

keep working to destroy empire of evil!

Today at morning I’ve e-mail from youtube that bouth my accounts will be suspended bcause of terms violation–

when 2 account are disabled sametime you can emagine whatta hell
should have happend, I asume that some russian bitches from 5th
department of satellite and internet intelligence in vatutniki(RF) have
permission from Putin to shut down with legal case my channels as I’ve
had some problems with my ex-internet service provider here I had to
change the account there too..

so who is not risking he not gonna get champagn too )

be wel

They have closed my DAXUREvsKREMLIN account right now again (

Every problem comes out from your channel content if it’s depicting
putin or KGB people then they’ve got there guy’s here for exapmle like
tis one- darki881 this son of bitch is from them and he flags my channel constantly
together with other 100 ones like him so we are invisible for such
attacks

cause in russia there is special unit called Yadro in
vatutniki(35km) from moscow which is 5 th unite of space intelligence.

I now thet here where I am they gonna braik there tuth to find me but I
don’t know about you if you feel scered then stop playing in this game.

this shitheads are everywhere like in youtube they control wikipedia and wikimapia too..

one of there liders 22 years old Alexander Koryakine is infiltrated from space intelligence to every possible IT resource..
Russian are payng lot of money to overcome informational war but enyway they are loosing it no matter what.
this is one link to you and I can’t tell you anymore…

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Alexandre_Koriakine

this bustard is friend of google owner and dues what he wantes.

From this red bitches I’m wayting every possible move towards hiting
the Iran or as you’ve sayd Georgia this communists have same brain with
nazis

thanx buddy for informaion I’m my self where former soviet citizen but
now as russians hited my own country I hate them more then chechens do
cause in several week or maybe day’s you gonna see news channels about
war between Georgia and Russia-
Hope this is not an begining of a third world war
be well and see U…..

look at Koryakin youtube :

http://www.youtube.com/profile?user=darki881
—————–
1st news report on echo of moscow on the begining of the war dated:

8-8-08, 00-08

88 is hh(hihitler as we all know. u can see this at Koryakin accoun too:

Gott mit uns!

Koryakin is a real high flyer in internet business, as a co-founder of wikimapia he may be better of then most of russian oligarchs

he is mad- a real fascist , smart as a computer kid, influenced bu DUGIN(check in wiki who this criminal is) and looks like he himself selected the date of attack : 8-8-8-00-08

dont take this easy. THIS IS IT.

Aug 8, 2008 - 7:43 pm 112. SirSefirot:

I hope this war is over in a few days. But in the meanwhile, the more russian jets shot down and the more russian conscripts that return home in wooden boxes, the better.

We must not forget that Russia was (and is) one of the countries, if not THE country, who has made every possible action to bolster our enemies, at home and abroad, financing them, giving them weaponry and political support at the UN. Do not be fooled; they are now as much our enemies as they were in the times of the USSR.

As some people have said, let’s give them some stingers and hellfires, step back and watch the fireworks, while mantaining a F-22 squadron nearby. If the shots haven’t stopped in a few days, make a couple of russian jets “accidentally crash” till they get the message. It will be clear enough so that the russians, and more importantly, the chinese and the iranians, can understand it perfectly.

Proxy wars work both ways.

BTW, if there wasn’t a reason to build an antimissile installation in Georgia before, there it is now.

Aug 8, 2008 - 7:49 pm 113. fred:

The number of posters on this thread rooting for Russia is stunning. They soil their thin reputation here by finding excuses for Russian aggression. And so the masks fall and the gloves come off…

I do favor the right kind of suggestions which exhelodrvr has described above.

The timing is curious, right on the eve of the Summer Olympiad. And it comes on the heels of Russian illegal seizure of all the rights to the Arctic Circle’s undersea oil reserves. Putin is seeing his jacking up oil strategy collapsing as the market demand for crude is pulling back. The money he’s been spending via his intermediaries and agents to bid up oil could only drive the market so far.

I still think the short-term strategy involves a lot of players who wanted the U.S. economy to nosedive and pave the way for the Messiah’s Promise to end the missile defense program.

I normally do not inhale the vapors of conspiratorial thinking, but sometimes a lot of events and linkages seem to show a pattern that suggests something. Can’t prove it, but the pattern is hard to erase.

Aug 8, 2008 - 7:51 pm 114. kabud:

my previous post still awaits moderation, but it has lots of !!very important facts!! well, may be it has a curse word- i will come back in 1o minutes and try to repost

Aug 8, 2008 - 7:54 pm 115. elijah:

The Western Route (via Turkey): favored by Turkey, the United States, Israel, and the EU.

Turkey and Israel are acknowledging that they are once again discussing the possibility of constructing underwater pipelines from the Turkish port of Ceyhan to the Israeli port of Ashkelon. Ceyhan is now the Mediterranean hub of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline. That pipeline connects Ceyhan to Caspian Sea basin oil sources. Interestingly enough, Israel could ship the oil through pipelines to its Red Sea port of Eilat, and then load the oil back on tankers for shipment to East Africa, India, or East Asia (Japan and China). This is an interesting option for Caspian Sea oil exporters, like Azerbaijan, because it bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran often threatens to close. The pipelines don’t yet exist, but the Israelis are supposed to be willing to put up the capital. Two other undersea pipelines could be constructed, one to carry natural gas and another to ship electricity. Turkey’s new hydro-electric power stations are coming on line and Turkey has electricity to sell.

4)The Western Route (via Turkey): This is favoured by Turkey, the United States, Israel, and the EU. There are three options here; firstly a pipeline to the port of Suspa in Georgia and then through the Bosporus straits to Europe. The Turkish claim is that the straits will not be able to handle the increased amount of shipping and propose instead a pipeline from Azerbaijan to Ceyhan on Turkey’s Mediterranean coast. The high costs of this proposal have promoted an alternative American plan to bypass the Bosporus straits with a pipeline going through Bulgaria and Greece.

…………………………….

Today NATO includes former Warsaw Pact or Soviet Union states Poland, Latvia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Lithuania, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovakia and Slovenia. Candidates to join include the Republic of Georgia, Croatia, Albania and Macedonia.

How about the network of new US military bases? For example, Camp Bondsteel, at the border between Kosovo and Macedonia. Bondsteel put US air power within easy striking distance of the oil-rich Middle East and Caspian Sea, as well as Russia. Are there U.S. bases in Hungary, Bosnia, Albania and Macedonia? How about Bezmer in Bulgaria?

And in Afghanistan? Bagram Air Field north of Kabul, the US’ main military logistics center; Kandahar Air Field, in southern Afghanistan and Shindand Air Field in the western province of Herat. Shindand, the largest US base in Afghanistan, was built some 100 kilometers from the border with Iran. Russia, China, Iran and Arab lands lie fairly close to these bases.

What about Manas Air Base at Bishkek’s international airport. Manas is not only near to Afghanistan; it is also in easy striking distance to Caspian Sea oil and gas, as well as to the borders of both China and Russia.

4/30/2007 11:41:00 AM @ Belmont Club

Aug 8, 2008 - 8:02 pm 116. fred:

Let me remind everyone what a very, very important stake is in our November election: the future of the missile defense shield. Russia, Iran, and China oppose it vehemently and will go to any length to stop it, including rendering assistance to a U.S. candidate for office who has promised to end the program.

It is the one thing that can help stabilize, not destabilize, the world. One of my sisters is married to a Raytheon exec who is in the missile defense program. If Obonga is elected, well, he’ll likely be out of a job, but my interest in the program goes beyond his job security. It is the security of my country and of all free peoples who resist tyranny, whether Islamic or Socialist. All of the world’s totalitarians are against this program, including our own internal Leftist Fifth Column and its filthy alliance with the Islamic jihad.

Aug 8, 2008 - 8:04 pm 117. Cannoneer No. 4:

South Ossetia Crisis Could Be Russia’s Chance To Defeat Siloviki

South Ossetia is not a territory, not a country, not a regime. It is a joint venture of siloviki generals and Ossetian bandits for making money in a conflict with Georgia.

Whenever someone starts telling us about shelling in Tskhinvali, it is important to keep in mind exactly what Tskhinvali is. It is not a city somewhere in the middle of a republic that is being fired upon by saboteurs. On three sides, Tskhinvali is surrounded by Georgian villages. The edge of Tskhinvali is a military outpost. South Ossetian forces fire from there into the Georgian villages, and the Georgians respond with fire of their own. To help keep Georgian fire from hitting civilians in the city, all the South Ossetians would have to do is move their military base forward a couple hundred meters.

But, of course, it is a fundamental principle of terrorists the world over — set up firing points in civilian areas and then when your enemy fires on you, you gleefully parade the bodies of your own children in front of the television cameras. Kokoity’s terrorists are following this same principle. If South Ossetia can in any way be considered a state, it must be considered a terrorist state.

Aug 8, 2008 - 8:04 pm 118. kabud:

SUPPORT OUR FIGHT FOR FREEDOM
http://www.youtube.com/user/yarm88

Aug 8, 2008 - 8:16 pm 119. Charles:

Boy, the footage on TV makes shows heavy, sustained rocket bombardment, looks like ground to ground. Shock’n’awe, old school.
////////////////////////////
Fireworks were pretty impressive too for the opening of the olympics. The chinese as well had a human graphics display of the entire history for the opening ceremony. It looked like their life flashing before their eyes.

Aug 8, 2008 - 9:10 pm 120. Russian Bear:

Well, too many comments to comment on…
So, this is just my point of view;
What is next to expect:
Russian troops will liberate the South Ossetian areas occupied by Georgians in their current offensive, and stop on the S. Ossetia borders. It does not make sense to go farther. Russia is a kind of a guarantor of safety for the Georgia’s separatist regions. They are supported by Russia and they count on her support and assistance. Russia warned many times that she would not tolerate attacks on theis regions by Georgia. After the Georgians are repulsed, the prewar status-quo restored, and credibility of Russia is proven, the war will calm down. Of course, Russians will try to destroy as much of Georgia military power, as possible, to reduce Georgian agressivness and readiness for future similar actions.
Political ramifications:
The most radical would be the following: South Ossetians may present themselves as “sufferers”, say “enough is enough”, and ask Russia to recognize their independence. And may get it. Then, they may have something like a referendum to join the North Ossetia, which is a part of the Russian Federation and the most pro-Russian region in the whole North Caucasus. So, Russians may get their foot on the South side of the Caucasian Range and just about 100 miles from the Georgian capital Tbilisi.
A good response for the inevitable Georgia entering NATO.
The softer outcome: The conflict returns to the uncertainty it was before. Georgia is not controlling the South Ossetia. South Ossetia is not recognized as an independent state. Russia has a lot of influence there and uses the unsolved conflict to harass Georgia and to prevent her entry to NATO.

Aug 8, 2008 - 9:41 pm 121. fred:

I think the Russian incursion only makes it MORE likely that Georgia will solidify its alliance with the West, not less. The only question is how resolute the West will be in defending Georgian rights to join NATO.

I mean, what is the advantage to Georgia in being dictated to by gangsters in the Kremlin? Of course Russia can keep those areas and populations that wish to restore their slavery to the Motherland. If the Kremlin can stretch its teat all the way down into the Caucasus, I suppose people will settle for that kind of security…

Aug 8, 2008 - 9:51 pm 122. kabud:

By invading Georgia the Russians are assuring the Iranians of Moscow’s readiness to confront the U.S. By invading Georgia the Russians are exacerbating the global energy crisis by strengthening all anti-American forces in the Middle East.

The price of oil isn’t merely about oil. It is about food, the U.S. dollar and power-politics. Westerners, however, are always “mystified” when the Russians seem to act contrary to their own economic interest (as if economic interests were the only interests). It is true that Russia has benefitted from high energy prices. More significantly, Russia will benefit even more when the U.S. dollar collapses.

In every strategic equation losses are relative. If you are somewhat hurt and your enemy is crippled, you’ve won a great victory. After all, war is about accepting damage as well as inflicting damage. And war between America and Russia has been the game all along. Only the American side has consistently refused to recognize the fact. In Washington they have deluded themselves about Russia’s long term strategic intentions. And even now they will continue to delude themselves. American pundits will puzzle over Russia’s invasion of Georgia. And perhaps the Russians will pull back, having gained some significant concession from Washington. It is hard to say at this early hour.

If we look at Russian rhetoric and Russian actions over the past nine years we will find a pattern. In recent months the Russians have been acting as if they want to provoke a break with the Americans. They want to put themselves openly and honestly on the other side of the fence. If there is global conflict anywhere in the world the Russian government wants to take the side of America’s enemy. In Venezuela, in Africa, in the Middle East, in the Far East, the Russians want to renew the confrontation between East and West.
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/pastanalysis/2008/0808.html

Aug 8, 2008 - 10:05 pm 123. Alexis:

I regard Russia’s incursion into Georgian territory to be less interesting than Prime Minister Putin’s pretext, that of protecting Russian citizens in the “near abroad”. Many Russians live in Kazakhstan; if Russian citizenship were extended to Russian speakers in Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation would presumably have a pretext for invading Kazakhstan as well.

Latvia and Estonia are members of NATO with significant Russian minorities. Although the military pretext of Russophone irredentism is unlikely to be used against these Baltic republics any time soon, I think this pretext is unlikely to reassure Latvians and Estonians. Given how Russia has a vested interest in gaining a land bridge to the Kaliningrad pocket, which is presently surrounded by land by NATO, Russia’s future Baltic diplomacy will be interesting.

Aug 8, 2008 - 10:17 pm 124. LenS:

Russia is our enemy. They have always been an enemy of freedom. Russian nationalism has always been very simple — kill and enslave your neighbors because it distracts from the way Russian leaders treat their own people. The sad part is that the Russian people approve of it. I guess misery loves company.

No matter — the demographic bomb set off by the Bolshevicks will solve the problem in just a few decades, if that. Russia will simply be another name for a tribe that troubled the world for a while before vanishing. And humanity will be a better place without them.

Still, it would be best if the USN and USAF destroyed the Russian nukes, missiles and subs now before they hurt someone.

Aug 8, 2008 - 10:22 pm 125. Neil:

Saakashvilli- that really should be Saakaswally-, thought he could use the smokescreen of the opening of the Olympic Games to launch a brutal military assault against the people of the breakaway province of South Ossetia. In a referendum, 99% of South Ossetians said ‘nyet’ to any association with Georgia, but hey, what does a little thing like democracy matter when you’re the neocons’ man in the Caucasus.

But Saakaswally’s cunning- (and utterly despicable) plan, has spectacularly back-fired. The murder of ten Russian peacekeepers – and the slaughter of hundreds of innocent South Ossetians has led Moscow to send in the tanks. And the planes. And now the hapless Georgian President is appealing for ‘help’ against Russian ‘aggression’(!- yes, please try and keep a straight face) from the EU and the US.

Taking page directly from the Croat, Bosnian Muslim and Kosovo Albanian filthy wars — internationalizing the issue and crying for Western help while attacking others — Georgian president “appealed directly to the international community, saying the confrontation was concerned America, values and freedom.”

KLA, anyone?

“Saakashvili said his five million-strong nation, with its comparably small army, has no chance of defeating the might of Russia. That is why he has called on the outside world to step in and halt what he called Moscow’s blunt aggression.”

So, even though Saakashvili’s well aware he can’t possible take Russia on, he still attacks and kills Russian peacekeepers and civilians in South Ossetia. That could only be because he knows he can count on U.S.-led NATO to fight his dirty war. Just like Tudjman, Izetbegovic and Thaci before him.

Is United States now going to get into the war with Russia? Is NATO going to bomb Moscow now? If they claim Russia is an “aggressor” for trying to protect 75,000 hapless Russians in South Ossetia, then they should try to attack Russia like Serbia, see how that one goes… whether they get to fly over Western Europe before getting their teeth bashed in. Or, more likely, are they “just” going to have NATO march in Russian-populated South Ossetia under the guise of “peacekeepers”, to let Georgia’s Thaci exterminate all the Russians and get that strategic chunk of Caucasus under their boots, exactly like the Serbian province of Kosovo and Metohija? We shall see.

Right on cue, the professional Russophobes are crawling out from beneath their stones, penning their rabidly anti-Moscow propaganda pieces- a mendacious narrative in which the aggressors become the victims of aggression and the victims of aggression the aggressors. But this is one dispute that even the neocons can’t spin to their advantage. Saakaswally took an almighty gamble- and lost. No one is going to go to his assistance. The former employee of Patterson, Belkan, Webb and Tyler is going to be taught a lesson he’ll never forget.

Never provoke a bear.

Aug 8, 2008 - 10:31 pm 126. cjm:

in a perverse way (russians are involved, after all) this incursion helps mccain, not obama. this of course is what the russians want. mccain is predictable in his responses, where obama is such a dunce that he could easily over-react to some minor event, turning it into a huge (and unexpected)problem.

Aug 8, 2008 - 10:32 pm 127. kabud:

LenS:
usa idiotic political elits will never do it, u must be joking))) they had a chance to do it in the late 40s. EASILY

now we will get hit by and public will be fed a bluffing pitch of `islamists` hahaha)))

nice way to die isnt it:):):)

USA SHOULD IMMEDIATELY INCREASE OUR NUCLEAR ARSENAL
The Russians and Chinese – inveterate cheaters on their international obligations – are busily modernizing their nuclear forces. Pakistan and North Korea are among the problematic nuclear powers expanding theirs, while still others – notably, Iran – are covertly trying to acquire the Bomb. A number of these states have ties to terrorists that could result in the latter “going nuclear,” too.

Thanks to 16 years of inattention, purposeful neglect and willful unilateral disarmament measures under both Republican and Democratic administrations, the United States’ nuclear arsenal is steadily obsolescing, becoming evermore problematic to maintain and increasingly losing its deterrent credibility.

We alone among nuclear powers – declared and undeclared – are going out of the business by failing properly to preserve, let alone modernize, our aging stockpile.

We must recognize reality: A world without effective, safe, reliable and credible U.S. nuclear weapons will will be one in which others can continue to inflict such destruction as Hiroshimas on us.

And the contribution our deterrent has made to world peace – to say nothing of the security and freedom of this country and its allies (including post-war Japan) – will be no more.
http://frontpagemag.com/Articles/Read.aspx?GUID=035DFB18-D66A-4D26-A24A-A42FACAFE57B

Aug 8, 2008 - 10:34 pm 128. NahnCee:

Pictures of Georgia marching in the Olympics opening ceremonies today. Must be hard to be competing on a world stage while some big old cranky bear is bombing the folks back home.

Reading some translated comments from a Russian blog. Arabs got nothing on Russians when it comes to making up “it’s all America’s fault”. It seems to have something to do with the hostilities starting on the day of the Olympics opening and how USA decided to attack Russia and China to make them look bad on that day.

Evidently in the world today it’s not really a war and you’re not really dead unless you can claim that it was an American bullet that killed you.

Aug 8, 2008 - 10:38 pm 129. kabud:

cjm:
very very true

I suspect kremlin has:
plan A KGB
for OBAMA just giving up USA defense, surrendering to sovok, pulling down his pants and getting in the receiving position

plan B GRU
since they played with McCain brain and body so long they practically own it, so they will use it as an ideal tool for provocation and final phase:

Missile Day: refers to the first day of open military hostilities between the West and the Communist Bloc, probably entailing a preemptive nuclear strike by the latter against the former; also known as Launch Day, or When the Balloon Goes Up.

Aug 8, 2008 - 10:40 pm 130. Russian Bear:

There is no anti-Western conspiracy from Russia in Caucasus. No plot to weaken the USA, or something to do with oil. Russia is doing what she can afford herself to do, just to be nasty with Georgia.
Russia and Georgia were getting along very well for 200 years. Their relations were equal, friendly and close both in the time of the Russian Empire and the USSR. The famous Russian general in the Russia-Napoleion War, Bagration was a Georgian. Georgian nobles were well treated at the Tsar’s court, and Georgians had their culture, language and territory preserved well. Joseph Stalin and his infamous Security Chief (KGB) Lavrentiy Beria were Georgians. They ruled Russia! Ed. Shevarnadze, Gorbachev’s Foreign Minister was a Georgian. Russians had a lot if respect to Georgian artists, movie directors, sculptures, musicians and vice versa. Georgian men loved Russian blond women, and Russian women loved Georgian men… What was the cat that ran between the two nations? Too much of nationalism. After the USSR collapsed the Georgian nationalists came to power there. They started whimpering about “Russian colonialism”, “oppression”, and so on. They even opened “the Museum of Russian Occupation” in Tbilisi. Can one imagine that? Same like in Estonia! All these offended Russians’ feelings deeply. Georgian politicians are eager to establish strong economic and military ties with the USA to replace the natural(200 years together) Russian influence in the region. And that is also something Russia could not be enthusiastic with. Gerogians have never been nice with their national minorities-Ossetians and Abkhazians. Georgians demonstrated arrogance and declared their cultural superiority over the minorities. In the time of the USSR, the Moscow was an arbiter over the Georgians and their minorities conflicts, but after the USSR ceased to exist, the minority did not want to be a part of Georgia. They wanted to join Russia. Georgian uncontrolled mobs stormed the Ossetian capital Tshinval. There were a lot of civilian casualties. Later Edward Shevarnadze sent his troops to pacify Abkhazia. Both conflicts were stopped by Russian Military involvement. Russian peace-keepers are deployed there since than. Are they really neutral? They are not. They are more on the separatist side. Because of the Georgia confrontational stance, Russia does not allow Georgia to regain the separatist regions by military force, and is using the two unsolved conflict to keep pressure on Georgia.

Aug 8, 2008 - 10:40 pm 131. cjm:

translation into truth: pppffffffttttttt

Aug 8, 2008 - 10:43 pm 132. slade:

I don’t know that Georgia on my Mind reduces to the U.S. missile defense program, not having looked into Putin’s eyes.

But I do think it deserves to be a campaign policy issue of debate – particularly the broader context of military support.

It is one thing to oppose the Iraq War. It is quite another to initiate further reductions in military capabilities.

Aug 8, 2008 - 10:43 pm 133. kabud:

Neil:(Never provoke a bear)

you are a joke,
russian people will soon be catching KGB bastards with bad smelling breath and feeding them to the pigs

you bear dream is over : kgb regime is the enemy of Russia and is dieing so in its agony it will lose to a small and proud nation of Georgians(with a little help of UPA and of course Russians!

get on your knees, ment, its an order

Aug 8, 2008 - 10:45 pm 134. cjm:

i hear they store the really good vodka in the missle silos.

Aug 8, 2008 - 10:57 pm 135. Neil:

Kabud?! I a, beginning to detect a bit of hostility? Remember when idle hands were actually a threat? Now they just send nuisance message. Btw,Freud would have a field day with your statement.

Aug 8, 2008 - 11:07 pm 136. Steve Nelson:

Nice to know many of the cranks are still here, Cold Warriors and war porn addicts, and others gleefully contemplating the end of Russian cilization, as if the resulting vacuum to be filled by a Tartar branch of the Caliphate or Greater China in the Far East would be preferable to the West than the present vodka swilling, tyranny loving rabble.

On the other hand, there have been many thoughtful comments showing an ounce of sanity, or at least “we have no dog in that fight” ala James Baker. After bombing Serbia to allow Kosovo to achieve its independence, we turn around and tell the Russians that Georgia is justified in crushing little South Ossetia’s bid for the same. And the U.S. taxpayer-funded RFE/L website publishes Yulia Latyina dismissing South Ossetia as nothing more than a “terrorist state”, akin to Hezbollah’s enclave in Lebanon or the PLO, while the same Georgian soldiers attacking South Ossetia were training with U.S. Marines to deploy to Iraq and Afghanistan two weeks ago. Hmmm…we’re not exactly neutral, are we? What’s next, Russian and Chinese troops training Venezuelans while Chavez cuts us completely out of their heavy oil deals, the way we cut the Russians out of Caspian oil in the 90s? Tit for tat. But who is really David and Goliath here? Russia, which nobody really seems to like, or poor little Georgia, which gets to play Goliath against poor little South Ossetia?
Makes sense to me!

Aug 8, 2008 - 11:11 pm 137. kabud:

Neil:
i only have one thing to add for a shadow:
.41 Magnum:
well, there are more here, but that is my favourite

Aug 8, 2008 - 11:11 pm 138. exile:

Saakasvili is one of the more disgusting politicians to be praised by the west of late. The saddest part is, he takes himself so seriously that he hasn’t even noticed that he is utterly expendable for the west. Why doesn’t he just go back to an American law firm instead of trying to hang on to his fiefdom in the Caucasus. Hopefully the Georgian people will have had enough of him after the inevitable sad carnage that will now follow.

My guess is that Russia will just stuff Georgia and South Ossetia will then be annexed to the Russian Federation. That is the price Georgia will have to pay for playing silly buggers.

Aug 8, 2008 - 11:14 pm 139. kabud:

The .41 Action Express (41 AE) was designed by Evan Whildin, vice president of Action Arms, in 1986.[3] It was based on the .41 Magnum case, cut down to fit in a 9 mm frame, and using a rebated rim. The .41 AE is a very attractive cartridge in many ways, as the rebated rim allows a simple barrel and magazine change to allow many 9 mm guns to be converted to .41 AE.

The powerful 10 mm Auto cartridge, which had been suffering from poor acceptance from its start in the early 1980s, was eventually accepted by the FBI in a reduced power, subsonic loading. Smith & Wesson then decided that the 10 mm Auto was too much cartridge for the reduced power loading, and that the .45 ACP sized guns that chambered it were too heavy and bulky; out of this came the .40 S&W, a shortened 10 mm Auto case, designed to fit in a 9 mm sized gun, with a reduced pressure loading that allowed a lighter, easier to shoot gun. Because most ammunition manufacturers backed the very similar .40 S&W, there was little use for the .41 AE and production of both firearms and the ammunition itself was soon phased out.

Aug 8, 2008 - 11:17 pm 140. Dave:

Wretchard has the key point right: Airpower will keep this one localized with minimal damage if airpower is used astutely.

In 1914, the astute use of the Royal Navy COULD have contained what became World War I.
The reasons the UK crapped out on that play in favor of trench warfare can be found in “Social History of the Machine Gun”.

Make no mistake, Putin and company are the agressors in this one. Unwilling to use the free market to prosper from their considerable oil and gas resources, they are attempting extortion wherever they can. Some extortees have decided they do not wish to be extorted. Fair enough.

Additionally, Russia has been seething over Georgia being its own country. And being somewhat successful at it. The S Ossetian enclave has provided their wannabe imperialists with a sanctuary from which they attempt to subdue their former province.

They have miscalculated their own capabilities
and that is what has led to the fighting.

Georgia remains a country friendly to the USA
and should be kept free and independent. With
Red, White and Blue Zoomies preventing Russian air superiority, those well-upgraded SU25s can reinforce Georgian geographic advantages and persuade the bear to return to its den.

The air arm is a force multiplier. Georgia has enough to multiply if they own their own air space. Uncle Sam should give them title insurance.

And by the way, tell those Russians to leave the imperialism to Americans. We are much, much better at it than they will ever be.
Wherever we go, our superior culture takes root because it offers something better. Their can make no such offer.

Aug 8, 2008 - 11:40 pm 141. Richard:

With Georgia, US is Out of Its Mind!

In response to the movement of Russian troops into Georgia this morning, State Department spokesperson Amanda Harper announced to the German press: “We support Georgia’s territorial integrity and we call for an immediate ceasefire.” Senator McCain was even more forceful, demanding, “Russia should immediately and unconditionally cease its military operations and withdraw all forces from sovereign Georgian territory.”

Both statements are not only reckless but they reveal the total obliviousness of most American foreign-policy makers to the consequences of Washington’s actions since the end of the Cold War—a characterization that holds equally well for the supposed diplomats and realists in Foggy Bottom as for the neocons rallying to McCain.
Moreover, the santimonous statements of Halper and McCain indicate that that think Russia is making a play at territorial conquest. Unfortunately, things are far more complicated. The struggle in Georgia revolves around the region of South Ossetia, which contains an ethnically distinct population that since the collapse of the U.S.S.R., has had a kind of instable, unofficial independence from the Georgian state. (Unlike Slovakia and Crotiatia, South Ossetia seems to have missed its chance at full autonomy.) Since his election in 2004, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili has sought to gain control of the separatist region, and with the world’s eyes on the Olympics, he seems to be pushing towards an end game. Moscow is justifying its own incursion in South Ossetia on the fact that Georgia’s actions has set off a flow of refugees into Russia and that Russian peace-keepers have been murdered in the region’s capital of Tskhinvali.

This is simply not a case of “good vs. evil,” nor is it the kind of conflict Washington is in any position to resolve. Being that no national interest is at stake, I don’t see any reason to come out for or against any one side.

There’s the further irony that for all of the State Department’s talk of protecting Georgia’s sovereignty, Washington’s policy over the past 15 years has been to support ethno-separatist movements much like the one in South Ossetia—the best example being our military campaign on behalf of the KLA, culminating in George Bush’s official recognition of the Islamo-Mafia cesspool known as “Kosovo.” Spain notably didn’t follow Bush in legitimizing “Kosovo,” as it worried that this might encourage Basque separatists within its own borders. I wonder if President Saakashvili is wondering whether the incoherent foreign policy of his American patron might have done much to inspire the South Ossetia rebels who are now such a pain in his side.

It’s still dangerous to be allied with Uncle Sam, for when Washington seeks to manage the world, unintended consequences begin to multiply.

Aug 8, 2008 - 11:41 pm 142. Currier:

As someone who has no time for airy theories of self-determination, I don’t support South Ossetian independence and I doubt they had any legal right to break away from Georgia, but I also understand that their incorporation into Georgia SSR was one of those artificial games that the Soviets played with ethnic groups to divide and conquer their subjects. South Ossetia has been de facto out of Georgian control for 17 years or so, so what was the urgency in restoring it now? Reportedly over a thousand people have died in the first day of hostilities, so it’s not clear to me that Saakashvili is in the right by launching this strike even if South Ossetia does belong to Georgia.

The status quo was that Georgia could not exercise sovereignty over South Ossetia, whose people hate Georgians for what they did to them in the last century, so Russia filled the vacuum and is maintaining, more or less, the status quo against Georgia’s efforts to establish control over this region. Georgia had some legitimate claim to this territory, but as a practical matter using force was the worst way to take control over something that should legally be theirs. It was already difficult to resolve this matter through negotiation, and now it will be nearly impossible. Saakashvili’s haste and recklessness have made sure that his country’s legitimate rights are undermined.

“I guest [sic] non-interventionism and sovereignty are just codewords for reflexive support for the enemies of the US or of our friends.”

This isn’t true, and I suspect that the commenter knows it isn’t true. At the very least, had the U.S. ever demonstrated respect for state sovereignty in international affairs over the last 20 years Washington would at least be in the position to take issue with violations of Georgian sovereignty, such as they are. In reality, what Moscow has done is a misdemeanor in comparison to the felonies Washington has committed. That doesn’t mean that Moscow should be able to do what it has been doing, but it does mean that Moscow will be able to do it without any real consequences. That is the world that the interventionists made, just as non-interventionists warned time after time. Ultimately, we can only be responsible for what our government does and we must be concerned first and foremost with whether our government respects the sovereignty of other states. Once we have accomplished that, then we might be able to dwell on the violations of others.

Aug 8, 2008 - 11:52 pm 143. Dave:

Currier: All murder is killing. All killing is not murder. Got it?

By the same token, all aggression is intervention BUT all intervention is not aggression.

To insist on non-intervention in foreign affairs is to advocate prior restraints upon
Americans and especially on American enterprise. Free markets and free trade intervene in every statist fantasy that ever existed. Trouble follows.

Looking over what American intervention has accomplished in the last 5 decades, I am pleased with the overall results. And take pride in having assisted in a few of those “felonies” myself.

To repeat what I said earlier: We are the most successful of imperialists and I figure on keeping things that way.

Aug 9, 2008 - 12:32 am 144. buddy larsen:

I agree with Currier. And Iraq itself was only a follow-on from the modern era’s biggest American gaffe –invading western Europe in 1944. Had we respected Nazi sovereignty, then the poor misunderstood Russians would not have been forced to invade, rape, murder, subvert, subdue, occupy, oppress & exploit a dozen or so eastern & central European nations in order to, without the slightest shred of conscience, visit a half century of poverty, shame, dread, and dead-end misery on one hundred million innocent bystanders.

Aug 9, 2008 - 12:36 am 145. Dave:

Not to worry folks: When it comes to marching through Georgia, Vladmir Putin
is NO Uncle Billy.

As wretchard noted to start with; airpower (ours) can keep this war small, inoffensive
and resolved in our favor.

Aug 9, 2008 - 12:37 am 146. Dave:

Now Buddy, you are being a misdemenant again.
Revert to felon immediately or I shall be forced to withdraw your emembership in RSR.

(Rednecks For Social Responsibility)
thePALEOneoconconspiracydotcom

Aug 9, 2008 - 1:02 am 147. Cannoneer No. 4:

War in Georgia: It’s the 3 a.m. Call in the White House

Russians are just superb at timing: whenever they do something dastardly, they time it to Friday afternoon when politicians, diplomats and journalist head to the weekend. The attack on Georgia also came at the time, when all the worlds’ attention is on Beijing. Everyone who has paid close attention, however, to the events in Georgia, is shocked, but not surprised.

This attack is not some faraway tribes shelling each other nor an “internal matter” like Chechnya. Georgia is a NATO aspirant, a democratic country in otherwise totalitarian region. It is directly attacked by Russia. This is the first Russian invasion of a neighboring country since its invasion of Afghanistan. It is impossible for the world to turn a blind eye. And although we can be certain that Western governments will do their best to pressure Georgia into retreat and capitulation in order to avoid the West having to demand that the Russians behave themselves, it will be impossible for Georgia to back down. The survival of the country is at stake.

What is at stake here is a post cold war world order. At stake is the credibility of NATO as a military alliance, the U.S. as a credible ally and, for better or for worse, the EU’s survival.

Aug 9, 2008 - 1:26 am 148. buddy larsen:

We should’ve listened to Patton. After all, the Russians had already by then finished making their one contribution to humanity –well, their one good contribution, bad ones are damn sure plentiful –a few good writers a hundred years ago. Oh yes, and the world’s ugliest building, that onion domed multi colored monstrosity squatting in the middle of Moscow, the city of deliberate demoralization, the city too tragic (because of those 12th century Mongol invasions y’know) to sober up long enough to mow the grass, do a little housecleaning, note that a manna-from-heaven natural resource gift doesn’t have to be weaponized against the neighbors, and bother to care whether or not an oblivious serfdom happily in thrall to a dictator-led gang of national socialist assassins is a good, or normal, thing to be.

Aug 9, 2008 - 1:38 am 149. Mr. Democracy:

As someone who’s lived in Georgia and considers Tbilisi a second home, I harbor no sympathy toward the Russians or their bullying threats and revanchist attempts to swallow up a small and real democracy on their borders. I have also been humbled by the dedication and the professionalism of the Georgian forces, who are standing by us here in Iraq (where I am currently located.)

That said, this was a bone headed move by Sakaashvili. He had great success in reintegrating Adjara back into Georgia proper and seemed to believe he could catch the Russians unaware during the Olympic games and quickly reintegrate S. Ossetia as well. But Adjara and S. Ossetia are very different on account of:

Adjara was not contiguous to Russia and did not have Russian soldiers on their soil.
Adjara had not ethnically cleansed its Georgian population like Abkhazia and S. Ossetia, so there was significant local support for reintegration.

Sakaashvili has staked a lot of political capital on reintegrating the breakaway regions back into Georgia proper and this has pushed him to back the Russians into a corner. This is unfortunate, because the best thing Georgia could do would be to simply let these areas be absorbed into Russia.

Abkhazia and S. Ossetia have never truly been part of an independent Georgia. They have been de facto client states of Russia since 1992. Because of the ethnic cleansing in the 1990’s, their populations have few Georgians left. Yes, they are technically part of Georgia – but only on a map. They are not strategically important and have little wealth or developed areas. In fact, their reintegration into Georgia would likely depress Georgia’s fragile economy.

Georgia will never be part of NATO as long as it has these unresolved, potentially destabilizing secessionist problems. But if the Abkhaz and S. Ossetian problems were resolved, with full support from the US and other former eastern bloc nations, Georgia would have a good shot at becoming a member.

Is it fair? No. Is it right? No. But letting these areas be formally absorbed by Russia would be what’s best for Georgia.

If Georgia would let these areas go, they could then stabilize their country and become a partner in NATO – planting a free and democratic nation on Russia’s border that could never be threatened or bullied because of the alliance. THAT would be the Georgians’ best revenge.

Until then, we need to stand by our ally. True we do not have a formal security agreement, but this does not make them any less of an ally (we don’t have formal security agreements with Israel or Taiwan either.)

We need to demonstrate consistently to the world that we will support our friends (not sell them out) and punish our adversaries (not cut deals with them.)

American credibility is on the line.

Aug 9, 2008 - 1:40 am 150. buddy larsen:

LOL, Dave –yep, you pegged me alright.

Aug 9, 2008 - 1:49 am 151. chuck,:

I don’t know what Bush & Condi & Vlad talk about when the microphones are turned off, but it would hope that the conversation turns to China and Greater Islam, which are the ultimate beneficiaries of these dogfights between Washington and Moscow.

I’m not among those who attribute Original Sin to Russia; Russia was supportive during our Revolution and Civil War. And we in return raised no objections to the Russian Empire enclosing so many nations and peoples. And I don’t now. Given a friendly government–a pipedream today–I’d happily recognize and support Russia’s resuming control over the whole lot. Life would be quieter and safer for the USA.

But this, alas, against common interest and sanity, Russia and the USA seem fated to quarrel. And China to profit.

Aug 9, 2008 - 3:34 am 152. chuck,:

I need coffee. Should have written:

But, alas, against common interest and sanity, Russia and the USA seem fated to quarrel. And China to profit.

Aug 9, 2008 - 3:35 am 153. Cannoneer No. 4:

No, It’s Not Good At All

Those of us who used to monitor the Soviet Union have seen some of this coming for a while. The open events, such as the murder of Anna Politkovskaya was a clear indication that the Soviet-era methods were back in play, while the nasty and showy murder of Alexander Litvinenko made points lost on no one paying attention. These are two of the best known events, but many more have died, disappeared, etc. over the last few years who were even a minor threat to Putin and those working with him. They are willing and able to play for keeps, and I think they will be more than willing to escalate things in Georgia to levels we have not seen in several decades.

Aug 9, 2008 - 7:37 am 154. Jay:

I work as a researcher in several areas supported by the DOD. It is a very bad idea to underestimate Russia’s military potential if the ruling KGBnicks are humiliated. Russia has enough wealth now that they can beef up their military with a paid professional officer and noncom corp while cutting the size of the land army. They have sufficient in house technical expertise to integrate weapon systems that they can purchase.
I know that the KGB likes to steal rather than buy but they do have the option of making joint ventures if they want to.
Also our gizmos do not always work unlike the stuff in the Clancy novels. So those of you who are IT workers remember that MS came out with Vista. Well maybe Gates is really a KGB spy.

Aug 9, 2008 - 7:45 am 155. Huan:

I agree with Mr. Democracy.

It was not a smart move by Georgia, but that is neither here nor there now. As an ally who have supported our efforts elsewhere (Afghanistan and Iraq) the US should now reciprocate. We should provide them with all the necessary intelligence to defend their territorial integrity and autonomy, as well as hardware and supplies. Our conduct here will have repercussion elsewhere now, as well as in the future. The world, our friends and would be friends, our enemies and would be enemies must never doubt that they have no better friends than the US, and no worse enemy.

Aug 9, 2008 - 7:48 am 156. kabud:

If you guys really care to stay alive

This is what we got to do: spread the word before it is not too late

USA and our allies SHOULD IMMEDIATELY :

1.OUR LEADER MUST BEGIN TO TELL ALL TRUTH ABOUT KREMLIN THREATS AND PLANS. YES THEY KNOW THAT ENEMY IS PREPARING FOR THE WORLD WAR AGAINST USA:
Attack on Georgia is a provocation and precursor. Oil Pipeline Baku-Ceyhan WAS ALREADY ATTACKED but is not destroyed yet.

Attack on USA is a combination of attack on dollar, provocations around IRAN and as we know- Georgia. More to follow, most likely biological terror act on USA soil of MAGNIFICENT proportions. May be more and even MOLRE DEADLY.

WORLD NEEDS TO BE WARNED BEFORE IT WILL UNFOLD

2.USA AND OUR ALLIES MUST DENY IMMEDIATELY RUSSIA, CHINA AND THERE ALLIES ALL DIPLOMATIC RECOGNITION

3.USA AND OUR ALLIES MUST IMMEDIATELY PUT A TOTAL TRADE EMBARGO ON RUSSIA AND CHINA AND THEIR ALLIES LIKE IRAN, SYRIA, OPEC IN GENERAL, VENEZUELA, ETC
————–

IT IS A MATTER OF LIFE AND DEATH OF THE WESTERN CIVILIZATION

SPREAD THE WORD ACT NOW BEFORE YOU ARE DEAD

Aug 9, 2008 - 8:30 am 157. kris sargent:

It sure looks like Russia is playing for keeps.

As anticipated, Russia has mobilized its Black Sea fleet, to in all likelihood land ground troops on Georgia’s western flank. And Russian jets have been bombing the Kadori Gorge in Abkhazia, which means this thing has evolved past the narrow concern of South Ossetia.

Also, reports indicate that Russia has attacked the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline with bunker-busting bombs. That’s a strategic move.

Right now I think the smart money is that Russia’s primary objective is “regime change.” At first I thought this might be Israel goes to Lebanon; however, now it’s starting to look like America goes to Baghdad.

Aug 9, 2008 - 8:43 am 158. cedarford:

fred:
I think the Russian incursion only makes it MORE likely that Georgia will solidify its alliance with the West, not less. The only question is how resolute the West will be in defending Georgian rights to join NATO.

There are no “rights” to join NATO. Only if member states agree it is in their interest to allow a nation to join the “Club” for mutual benefit and risk-sharing.

In this case, Georgia launched an aggressive war that left up to 1,000 Russian peacekeepers and passport-holders dead. Now they are getting pummeled for their “audacity of hope” by a superior Russian military.

Sakaashvili made a bone-headed move. Similar to the dumb aggression of the Greek Dictatorship allowing an extreme nationalist to invade Cyprus – start a war and then act shocked as no one intervenes as a superior opponent squashes your weaker military like a bug..

Huan – now. As an ally who have supported our efforts elsewhere (Afghanistan and Iraq) the US should now reciprocate. We should provide them with all the necessary intelligence to defend their territorial integrity and autonomy, as well as hardware and supplies.

Why? Does having “boots on the ground” in Iraq in retrurn for 100s of millions or billions in US aid from the wastrel Bushies some constitute a defacto mutual defense treaty? Jordan has “boots on the ground” Israel doesn’t, so does it compute that Jordan is now owed US lives and treasure if they assault Israel??? Or Peru has sent troops and contractors to Iraq and Afghanistan for Bush’s dangled “coalition of the willing” financial bait, while Bolivia has not…therefore, the US is now locked into obligation to join Peru in an attack on Bolivia?

France and Germany said that NATO is now even more off the table than it was before the Georgian attack on Russian citizens and peacekeepers. A German ministery official said the prospect being drawn in to direct fighting between European states and Russia over a small country’s unresolved territorial disputes is “unacceptable”.

The Americans, who helped set up nationalist Sakaashvili with the Rose Revolution, despite his claims he would forcefully settle all separatist issues, have now recognized the Neocon dream of NATO and a Caspian oil pipeline to the Med to serve Israel and avoid Russian territory is all endangered to the Georgian-started war. No oil pipeline under NATO protection now looks feasible to the Euros, even prominent American officials:

The conflict “absolutely” dooms Georgia’s chances for NATO membership, said Robert Hunter, U.S. ambassador to the Brussels- based alliance under President Bill Clinton and now a senior adviser at the policy-research group RAND Corp. in Washington. “You don’t bring in a country that has this sort of trouble.”

Aug 9, 2008 - 8:45 am 159. programmer:

So, after all the discussion, let me see if I have this straight.

Georgia attacked South Ossetia, knowing Russia had openly pledged support for this entity.

Russia asked the UN Security Council to intervene and as usual, the UN couldn’t agree to form a committee to write a request to think about forming a committe to consider talking about…., Oh well, you get the idea.

Russia moved in forces to support South Ossetia.

Georgia shot down Russian planes.

Russia counter-attacked.

So, how is Russia the aggressor in this whole thing?

Aug 9, 2008 - 8:49 am 160. jamie:

It was an obvious provocation by Georgia hours earlier Georgian and Russian negotiators agreed on a cease fire then Georgian military start indescriminately bombing the region. Russia representing S Ossetia agreed to protect S Ossetia in case Georgia broke the ceasefire and assulted S Ossetia.
Britain and France declared war on Germany after security agreements with Poland and Britian went to war or Argentina over the Falkan islands.

Don’t think this has anything to do with the Caspain oil pipelines Washington wants and justification for the missle defence shield?

The problem with S Ossetia is that it’s not financed and supported by western intelligence and doesn’t have links to international organised crime and Islamic terrorism and wars started against an ethnic cleansing campaign against its ethnic populations Serbs and ethnic Russians in Kosovo and Chechnya.

They also don’t have fake “genocide” stories that they propagate to defend there cause like an overlay inflated death count, bogus stories of massacres, fake mass rape stories and supposed racism as the underline cause not any legitimate security reasons.

Another thing they don’t have is Washington lobbyists, PR companies, think tanks and media on there side and counter to Washington’s geopolitical strategy.

Aug 9, 2008 - 8:49 am 161. kabud:

THIS IS DISINFORMATION YOU ARE SPREADING LIES:

In this case, Georgia launched an aggressive war that left up to 1,000 Russian peacekeepers and passport-holders dead.

Georgian territory was under fire for two week, including bombings, cannon fire and sniper fire

Saakashvili nevertheless ordered a seize fire and keept it for days or weeks

On 6-7 August a number of civilians killed by the fire from South Osetia increased dramatically

SAAKASHVILI HAD AN OBLIGATION TO PROTECT HIS PEOPLE

YOU C4 will burn in hell for spreading lies when people die. And u will get cancer soon.

Aug 9, 2008 - 8:54 am 162. Lugh Lampfhota:

Russia is neither a friend nor ally of America. I’ve come to believe that the Soviet Union merely rebranded itself and continued the cold war by other means. Iraq, Iran, Venezualia, et al are all manifestations of Russian intrigue. We should have listened to Patton 63 years ago.

The US needs to stand by Georgia and stand up to Russia. Russia is a bully and bullies are only encouraged by weakness. Quietly hurt the Russians. Maybe the Roki Tunnel could mysteriously collapse?

Aug 9, 2008 - 9:05 am 163. Cannoneer No. 4:

RAPING GEORGIA

How do I know that the Russians set a trap? Simple: Given the wretched state of Russian military readiness, that brigade could never have shot out of its motor pool on short notice. The Russians obviously “task-organized” the force in advance to make sure it would have working tanks with competent crews.

Otherwise, broken-down vehicles would’ve lined those mountain roads.

The Russians planned it. And they hope to push it to the limit.

The only thing that’s 100 percent clear is which side we should be on.

Aug 9, 2008 - 9:05 am 164. kris sargent:

Mr. Fernandez,

If you’ll recall, in 2006 there was speculation — much of it on your blog — that Israel had been simply lying in wait, anticipating that Hezbollah would eventually overstep (it’s the scorpion’s nature). We entertained the idea that the Israeli government, having recognized “public justification” as a necessary precondition for endgame escalation, had been patiently biding its time until the opportunity arose to unleash hell and destroy Hezbollah. We were wrong, of course.

But now? This has all the markings of a Venus Fly Trap. Russia needed a pretext to make a strategic move against Georgia’s democrats. Using the separatists, the Bear kept poking and poking, waiting for Saakashvili to overplay his hand. The mistake came, providing Russia with the pretext necessary for endgame escalation.

What we’re seeing now is the trap closing. Given the precedents of the last 17 years (Kuwait, Bosnia, Kosovo, Iraq) and the political context of the present (Bush’s approval rating, the priority of Iraq and Iran, and the resurgence of the Realists in US foreign policy), I think Russia is willing to be feared again so long as she can improve her strategic position. In fact, being feared again might just be one of her priorities.

Aug 9, 2008 - 9:08 am 165. programmer:

Cannoneer,

Excellent point about the Russians combat readiness. However, could this just be a case of ramping up readiness in response to intelligence as opposed to nefarious thinking? Not arguing with you, just thinking about this.

Aug 9, 2008 - 9:09 am 166. kabud:

PHOTOS OF GEORGIAN CIVILIAN KILLED AND INJURED
http://drugoi.livejournal.com/2691106.html

Aug 9, 2008 - 9:27 am 167. buddy larsen:

I haven’t yet seen TV news produce a map, showing why Georgia is the west’s access to the Caspian Basin, with its mideast-sized oil reserves. IOW, only the very few Americans who read such blogs as this, have any notion at all –yet –of the world-historical stakes in play here.

This Georgia battle plan probably went to priority when KGB succeeded in finally burying Yeltsin and liberal democracy via its takeover of Gazprom –or more accurately, via the west’s nonchalant aquiescence to KGB’s clear plan to weaponize energy against Europe and the west.

Aug 9, 2008 - 9:33 am 168. Steve Nelson:

Thank you Wretchard, once again, for being the voice of reason and sanity. Cedarford and Russian Bear are also making sense, and even friends of Georgia can see that Saakashvili has made a reckless mistake, one that will actually hurt Georgia’s chances of joining NATO and the EU rather than help it. While I think Georgia should be given a chance to join the EU, I don’t think NATO membership is necessary or wise, anymore than it would be for Ukraine. NATO expansion should have stopped with Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia, in my view, and NATO itself should have been reorganized as a counter-terrorist organization inclusive of Russia rather than what it is now.

Aug 9, 2008 - 9:36 am 169. NahnCee:

Jay, how long would all that adding, subtracting and moving around take?

Would anyone still be paying attention if it takes as long as I think it would?

In the meantime, what would happen if an interested 3rd party such as Al-Queda decides it’s time to start playing games in Moscow, or Chechnya, or other Russian-type places? If people think that America is stretched thin (which I don’t agree with), how much time and effort and materiel can Russia afford to take tap dancing with Georgia?

Aug 9, 2008 - 9:40 am 170. kabud:

People, look: this is KGB operative at work
Steve Nelson:

be aware!!! These operatives will be killing American commanders when war will reach USA

Aug 9, 2008 - 9:41 am 171. kabud:

NahnCee:
Al-Queda is a KGB project. THEY ARE GOING TO ATTACK USA SOON.

“ bin Laden would be providing most of the people in this, with Iraqi intelligence helping logistically and otherwise being behind it.”

Islamic “fundamentalist threat” is at least belatedly perceived as consanguine with and fraternal to the “rogue regimes” that Russia has been financing, arming, and inciting against the West with one hand,

while offering the West protection from these very regimes with the other.

If the World Trade Center attacks had in fact came from Iran, Syria, or Libya? From opposition groups in Saudi Arabia, Algeria, or Pakistan? From the Palestinian refugee camps?
Or even from Afghanistan, with its history of political opportunism and tribal backstabbing?

No matter. Whichever “rogue regime” they came from, Moscow has been supporting it

http://www.jrnyquist.com/text/navrozov.html

Aug 9, 2008 - 9:47 am 172. what is "occupation":

As I posted over at Elephant Bar…

The Russians (among many of the world immoral thugs) have supported the fake national goals of a made up people called “palestinians” and in the Bear’s support for these evil criminal murderers, they have made use of terror common place and acceptable across the globe (as well as Abba’s Docorate in Holocaust denial)

Suicide bombers, kidnapping, hijackings, ied’s kassams & more have been supported by the russians aimed at the Jews (recently america in iraq) Russia has armed hezboolah, syria & iran against both the USA and Israel so maybe turn about is in the cards…

Georgians (among other’s whose lands have been occupied by the Russians) should take up ied’s suicide bombings, killings, hijackings, destruction of water & power grids to the Russians…

They are an over extended empire too…

Karma is a pain in the ass and the Russians have caused much pain to MANY peoples…

I will laugh my ass off when Russians FREEZE in winter (again) in a country overflowing with oil…

Aug 9, 2008 - 9:49 am 173. kabud:

what is “occupation”:
it is no way RUSSIANS:

it is KGB/GRU/KREMLIN CRIMINAL GANGSTERS

Russian People IS our ALLY!!!

We just NEVER in our stupidity WORKED WITH PEOPLE -
our rotten and corrupted elite
HAVE CRIMINAL SECRET TREATIES with KREMLIN

STOP IT NOW OR WE WILL BE DIEING HERE AS THEY ARE:

http://pics.livejournal.com/drugoi/pic/00gwd2as.jpg

Aug 9, 2008 - 10:00 am 174. programmer:

WhatIsOccupation,
You state “They (Russia) are an over extended empire too…”

Could you elaborate? Where are they currently committed militarily, for example?

This information would help inform the current discussion.

Aug 9, 2008 - 10:03 am 175. what is "occupation":

kabud:
it is no way RUSSIANS:
it is KGB/GRU/KREMLIN CRIMINAL GANGSTERS

Russian People IS our ALLY!!!

We just NEVER in our stupidity WORKED WITH PEOPLE -
our rotten and corrupted elite
HAVE CRIMINAL SECRET TREATIES with KREMLIN

that may be true…

But I remember the stories of my Grandfather about the pograms…

How they hid under false floors in the barns until the looting raping and burning would pass

How they fled into the woods and hid…

you call it the leadership of the ex USSR, the KGB/GRU Kremlin gangsters ( i dont disagree) but the stories of the JEWS that escaped the Motherland are chilling and the treatment of the Jews living in mother russia leaves MUCH to be happy about…

If the good people of russia exist, then it’s time for them to grow a spine (like they did at stalingrad) and fight the evil that has taken over your people
STOP IT NOW OR WE WILL BE DIEING HERE AS THEY ARE:

http://pics.livejournal.com/drugoi/pic/00gwd2as.jpg

Aug 9, 2008 - 10:06 am 176. Lugh Lampfhota:

Hmmm… South Ossetian rebels backed by Russians shell Georgia, killing civilians. Georgia responds by moving troops into it’s own territory to attack rebels. And Russian apologists claim that “Saakashvili has made a reckless mistake”.

Since when is defending sovereignty and killing rebels a “reckless mistake”? Was Lincoln guilty of the “reckless mistake” of fighting the Confederacy? Does the addition of variable Russia to the equation change basic math?

Aug 9, 2008 - 10:07 am 177. what is "occupation":

programmer:
WhatIsOccupation,
You state “They (Russia) are an over extended empire too…”

Could you elaborate? Where are they currently committed militarily, for example?

This information would help inform the current discussion.

programmer,

quote: At 17,075,400 square kilometers,[2] Russia is by far the largest country in the world, covering more than an eighth of the Earth’s land area; with 142 million people, it is the ninth largest by population. It extends across the whole of northern Asia and 40% of Europe, spanning 11 time zones and incorporating a great range of environments and landforms.

Any lands that did not include the russians’s Kievan Rus areas is empire building…

just google Kievan Rus and you will see that they are in fact an occupying force that has swallowed up many peoples lands….

Aug 9, 2008 - 10:11 am 178. Cannoneer No. 4:

programmer, you are free to give the Soviets the benefit of as much doubt as you think they deserve. My tours along the Frontiers of Freedom a quarter century ago and what I saw of the Soviet legacy in Afghanistan three years ago leave me in no doubt.

Ronaldus Magnus tagged them as The Evil Empire. They folded, but were not subjugated, conquered, purged or decommunized, and now their reconstitution is a fait accompli.

Aug 9, 2008 - 10:12 am 179. kabud:

Lugh Lampfhota:

moral aspect is now secondary

This is a WAR against USA. It is just unfolding.

Pipe line Baku- Ceyhan (1% of world oil)
LREADY BLOCKED

We must expect ATTACK on USA

WE ARE NOT READY NEITHER:
-STRATEGICALLY TO CONFRONT KREMLIN ADVANTAGE IN NUKES OR IN
-CIVIL DEFENCE AGAINST MASSIVE BIOLOGICAL DEADLY WEAPON OR
-RADIATION FALL OUT

we have no bomb shelters

we do not realize how many kremlin operatives are getting ready to attack our government, strategic objects and command line

THIS IS THE ISSUE!!!!!

Moral aspect is already widely comprehended, but it will not save lives AT ALL

Aug 9, 2008 - 10:13 am 180. what is "occupation":

Joint statement on Georgia-Russia War by Presidents of Poland, Estonia, Latvia & Lithuania
August 9, 2008
Georgia Update, a Service of the Government of Georgia

We, the leaders of the former captive nations from Eastern Europe and current members of the European Union and NATO– Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland – are extremely concerned about the actions of the Russian Federation against Georgia.

http://georgiandaily.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=5572&Itemid=65
We strongly condemn the actions by the Russian military forces against the sovereign and independent country of Georgia.

Following the unilateral military actions of the Russian military forces, we will use all means available to us as Presidents to ensure that aggression against a small country in Europe will not be passed over in silence or with meaningless statements equating the victims with the victimizers. To this end we intend to urge our governments to take the following positions in discussions and to raise these concerns in the European Union and the North Atlantic Council:

Can the current Russian authorities be called adequate strategic partners of the EU;
Can the family of European democratic countries pursue a mutually beneficial dialogue with a country that uses heavy military armour against an independent country;
It is pointlessness to continue a “visa facilitation” program with a country that does not meet even the minimal requirements set by the EU and which uses visa facilitation to issue Russian Federation passports to foreigners and then abuses this EU given privilege to claim intervention rights such as “we are protecting Russian citizens” in South Ossetia.
The actions of the Russian Federation in Georgia should influence the talks with the Russian Federation, including negotiations on the new Partnership and Cooperation Agreement.
We underline the obvious bankruptcy of Russian “peacekeeping operations” in its immediate neighbourhood. The Russian Federation has overstepped a red-line in keeping the peace and stability in the conflict zone and in protecting Russian citizens outside its own borders.

The EU and NATO must take the initiative and stand-up against the spread of imperialist and revisionist policy in the East of Europe. New international peacekeeping forces should be created as the current setting proved to be ineffective.

We regret that not granting of the NATO’s Membership Action Plan (MAP) to Georgia was seen as a green light for agression in the region.

We believe that the EU and NATO as the key organizations for European and Transatlantic stability and security should play a leading and crucial role in securing freedom, security and prosperity of countries not only in the EU but also in the neighboring European area.

It a litmus-test for the credibility of the EU and NATO to solve the conflict in its immediate neighborhood and to prove for all EU and NATO members, aspirant countries and democratic partners that it is worth being members and partners of these organizations.

This Declaration is open for the accession by the leaders of other democratic countries.

President of the Republic of Estonia Toomas Hendrik Ilves
President of the Republic of Latvia Valdis Zatlers
President of the Republic of Lithuania Valdas Adamkus
President of the Republic of Poland Lech Kaczyński

Aug 9, 2008 - 10:21 am 181. kabud:

at this point and in the future as well:

the only way we have a chance NOT TO DIE in attack against USA:

reach out to RUSSIAN PEOPLE, SUPPORT ASPIRATION FOR FREEDOM AND FIGHT AGAINST KREMLIN

SUPPORT MORALLY INFORMATIONALY POLITICALLY

NO TRADE WITH KREMLIN OR BEIJING
NO DIPLOMATIC RECOGNITION

Or we will all be dead

Aug 9, 2008 - 10:24 am 182. Cannoneer No. 4:

Russia’s Criminal Invasion Of Georgia And Obama Blows The “3 AM Call” Test

. . . those Europeans who are standing there watching this all transpire don’t even realize Russia just attacked one of them in an effort to peel it off from the herd. The predator is starting to stalk the weak and isolated. This is what comes when alliances fracture. Europe may not have liked our decisions after 9-11, but it was their mistake not to stand by us as we have stood by them in the face of the Russian Bear for nearly a century. They never realized that once the signal is given, that there will be no fight to save an ally, all that means is the herd has given up one of their members to the predator.

Aug 9, 2008 - 10:32 am 183. fred:

The Russians are now targeting the oil pipeline from the Caspian Sea. And they are escalating their attacks into Georgia.

This isn’t about a few thousand ethnic Russians in a border part of Georgia. The scale of the attacks and the timing of this with the retreat of oil prices makes me think Putin is playing a deeper game.

I just don’t believe the interpretation of these events by the mainstream media, the journalists, and the talking head diplomatic people. There’s a lot more to it than what they are publicly stating.

Aug 9, 2008 - 10:34 am 184. Dave:

Well, back to square one folks. A long-standing pattern of events has again emerged
in these United States.

A fight erupts between foreign entities. One or more of these entities behaves in a manner inimical to these United States. The other behaves in a manner more friendly.

All sort of useful idiots then crawl out of the woodwork spouting the disinformation du jour about how the latter are the aggressors
and how American concern for them is really
just a neocon/imperialist/oil/gas/pipeline/
conspiracy.

I now say to all such poltroons: “What part of ‘go to hell’ do you not understand?”

Now, then, can anybody give an objective reason why American airpower cannot keep this one small and resolve it in our favor?

If so, is there any other course besides abandoning an unsupportable outpost, no matter
how painful that may be? Sometimes that LP or OP just gotta get overrun because going to its aid would imperil your main force. I have lost friends that way and it is not pleasant.

Come on fellers, we need some good brainstorming here. Leave the moralistic posturing to the spineless.

Aug 9, 2008 - 10:46 am 185. Russian bear:

kabud is a funny guy!:

moral aspect is now secondary
This is a WAR against USA. It is just unfolding.
Pipe line Baku- Ceyhan (1% of world oil)
LREADY BLOCKED

We must expect ATTACK on USA

WE ARE NOT READY NEITHER:
-STRATEGICALLY TO CONFRONT KREMLIN ADVANTAGE IN NUKES OR IN
-CIVIL DEFENCE AGAINST MASSIVE BIOLOGICAL DEADLY WEAPON OR
-RADIATION FALL OUT

we have no bomb shelters

we do not realize how many kremlin operatives are getting ready to attack our government, strategic objects and command line

THIS IS THE ISSUE!!!!!

Hah-hah-hah-hah-hah-hah!!!!

Aug 9, 2008 - 10:48 am 186. Cannoneer No. 4:

Defensive Shield, the MPRI of the Russo-Georgian War.

Aug 9, 2008 - 10:49 am 187. kabud:

fred:
pipeline is already not working.

No ethnic russian was killed there- DISINFORMATION

Aug 9, 2008 - 10:50 am 188. Russian bear:

RE: What is “occupation”

Latvian, Estonian, Lithuinian and Polish presidents did not mention (I think, on purpose, because their statement is a propaganda action) that Georgia was the first to start a large scale attack on the South Ossetia, with the use of heavy armor and artillery against Ossetian city of Tskhinvally. So, that was Georgia to start the war.
Looks like the other world leader are aware of this fact.

Aug 9, 2008 - 10:56 am 189. kabud:

Russian bear——>DESINFORMATOR-KGB OPERATIVE IN INFOWAR

PEOPLE BE AWARE,
IDENTIFY- LIST THEM- THEY WILL BE ATTACKING US WITH WEAPONS SOON

Aug 9, 2008 - 11:00 am 190. kabud:

SAAKASHVILI ON CNN
SPREAD THE WORD
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hPi0kIz9bEY

Aug 9, 2008 - 11:08 am 191. exhelodrvr:

Dave,
“why American airpower cannot keep this one small and resolve it in our favor? ”

As noted previously, we don’t have the capability for significant military operations in that area, in addition to everything else that is currently going on (Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq). So if Russia calls the bluff, and commits more forces, we’re screwed. We have to back down. And if Russia backs down, plan on a LOT more interference from them down the road. Georgia may have had more of the right on their side, but they started this issue, and we need to be mindful of the consequences, and our ability or inability to follow through all the way, before doing something drastic as being involved operationally.

Aug 9, 2008 - 11:20 am 192. buddy larsen:

Russian Bear is right. Georgia is a threat to the KGB. But USSR will probably survive. Then KGB can murder the Georgian army, like it did to the Polish army in the Katyn Forest, in between its alliance with Hitler in 1939, and (oops!) getting itself invaded in 1941.

Aug 9, 2008 - 11:25 am 193. kabud:

>Georgia may have had more of the right on their side, but they started this issue

WRONG, DESINFORMATION

At 00-00 hour on 8th of August KGB/GRU troops crossed border of Georgia in attack against

sovereign country

Aug 9, 2008 - 11:27 am 194. fred:

Here are a couple of articles that lend some clarity to what would seem to be a confusing issue for some on this discussion thread:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/08/georgia.nato

http://www.nypost.com/seven/08092008/postopinion/opedcolumnists/raping_georgia_123664.htm

I just cannot see how anyone can defend Russia in this very calculated move of theirs. Yes, there is not much we can do about it, since we are not in a position to do anything – and that was most certainly part of Putin’s calculation.

Aug 9, 2008 - 11:44 am 195. Bob Nichols:

I totally disagree with the article’s last sentence. Georgia has been caught between the proverbial rock and a hard place. Their only choices are to either play dead and accept the always arrogant and hostile neighbor to their north’s efforts to “reunite them”, or pick their time and place to show the backbone similar to the one that America used to have. At least our government used to.
Russian spies and covert Special Forces have been inside S. Ossetia since the early 1990’s, bolstered by the Russian “peacekeeping” force. These forces have fomented all most all the trouble in this remote province of GEORGIA, insisting to the world that this tiny province simply wants to become part of Russia. It should also be remembered that Georgia is in a very strategic location and maintains the vitally important (and profitable) oil and its related infrastructure in the port cities on the Black Sea, and is a strong contender for the highly disputed American “missile defense system,” that Putin has been so upset by recently.
NATO recently turned down Georgia’s bid for NATO membership once the spineless NATO countries realized they would be bound by military treaty with the country. I fear that Georgia’s government has chosen this time and place to make their stand with the hope that those “freedom” loving governments around the world would step in to support them and hopefully stop Georgia from being completely destroyed. Sadly I don’t believe there is enough backbone from those governments’ political elite.

Aug 9, 2008 - 12:32 pm 196. fred:

I believe all of Putin’s geostrategic moves of late have been aimed at obstructing the anti-ballistic missile defense system. This is a goal Russia shares with Tehran and Beijing. These governments would lose what they perceive as the one way they can project power on the world stage: threaten nuclear annihilation on any nation that does not surrender to them or cooperate with their aims. Oil is but a means to an end for someone like Putin, who already is the richest man in the world, thanks to very high oil prices.

If Obama loses in November, this would be a tremendous victory for freedom and liberty against gangsterism, totalitarianism, and global instability. Why? Because John McCain supports the missile defense system and notes its remarkable successes. His opponent opposes it and LIES about the system by proclaiming it a failure. A victory by Obama in November brings into perfect harmony all the demonic elements and forces in the world. We will have let the barbarians inside the gates with this socialist’s victory. God help us.

Aug 9, 2008 - 12:54 pm 197. buddy larsen:

Bob, if the Euros don’t get together now and assert themselves –even at the cost of a cold winter and a deep recession –then it has already become too late, and we’re witnessing not ActI but ActIII.

Roll over now, and Caspian/Iranian oil will soon enough be off the open allocation auction market, and instead mercantilized, traded (no doubt in Rubles) to “cooperative” national governments at secret prices. Remaining oil will still be open allocation from the usual exchanges –but expect ever increasing unexplainable accidents and attacks on the system –and the host nations.

Saudi Arabia, Iraq, others, are in the crosshairs more than ever, and now there’s no pretending we can’t see it. The newly lit targets are, you can be certain, as we speak, re-evaluating entire strategies on the fly, as they watch USA/west’s response to this cold-blooded set-up and knock-down.

Aug 9, 2008 - 1:00 pm 198. Aether:

—snip———
Lugh Lampfhota:

“Russia is neither a friend nor ally of America. I’ve come to believe that the Soviet Union merely rebranded itself and continued the cold war by other means. Iraq, Iran, Venezualia, et al are all manifestations of Russian intrigue. We should have listened to Patton 63 years ago.

The US needs to stand by Georgia and stand up to Russia. Russia is a bully and bullies are only encouraged by weakness. Quietly hurt the Russians. Maybe the Roki Tunnel could mysteriously collapse?”
—————–

You are correct that the Russian government under Putin is an adversary of the US, and has been creating a great amount of mischief worldwide in their attempts to blunt America’s hegemony

The Russian Kleptokrats are a force to be reckoned with, and I cannot quite figure out why Saakisvali would provoke the Russian Bear… perhaps they were given some encouragement, promised some important quid pro quo ?

Presuming that a spoiling attack on Iran is imminent in the short to long term by Israel and/or America. (whom please recall, have been very actively arming and training the Georgians) It would be very beneficial to have the Russians fully engaged and unable to assist their Iranian allies at the start of hostilities.

Quite a speculative stretch, but either Saakashvili is extremely foolish, or there is larger strategic game afoot.

Aug 9, 2008 - 1:00 pm 199. harry:

If Russia’s blatant incursion into Georgian territory isn’t a signal for the US to attack Iran I don’t know what is. Besides being a potential NATO member it pipes a million BBL of oil to the West on a daily basis. If Russia can jeopardize the flow of oil to the West we can go into Iran. Russia will be too occupied with Georgia to come to Iran’s rescue. Now there’s a novel scenario. While Bush and Putin are all smiles in Beijing who knows what discussions were made in private? Perhaps the Israeli’s will seize the day and make a surprise attack. The perfect diversion is now available. The next few days will be interesting.

Aug 9, 2008 - 1:14 pm 200. buddy larsen:

Aether, something like that has passed thru my mind too. Yalta 2.0. Maybe Georgia has been traded for Iran (minus probably the Iranian shoreline on the Caspian). Lines drawn up to divide the oil among, well, eurasia, eastasia, and oceania. Nahhh –that wouldn’t be Bush. But then, maybe no one asked him.

Aug 9, 2008 - 1:21 pm 201. OldSalt:

Wretchard,

Amazing!

Your BLOG has been a constant source of useful information and informed commentary by yourself and your readers. However, the current Russian invasion of Georgia has bought the Russian KGB/FSB moles out en masse. I suppose that’s high-compliment; i.e. America’s enemies read you too.

Georgia has been a friend to the United States, and I’m sure that the US under GWB will reciprocate. Unfortunately, an Obama administration may feel more kinship with Putin’s Russia. I suspect that Putin is aware of this and is trying for some tactical advantage he can exploit over the next four to eight years. And the oil-economic-conspiracy angle, while a bit overblown by a few on this forum with more active imaginations, is real as a strategic factor for Russian. If Russia can control Georgia’s access to oil, it can control the Georgian economy.

As for the desire of Ossetiaians for “self-determination”, the old USSR was famous for importing it’s agents into satellites to create “native” factions longing for, of course, a close, subordinate relation with mother Russia. I’ve been an old “cold warrior” for nearly 30 years, and I’ve seen plenty of Russian imperial-shock-troops, but never a Russian “peacekeeper”. It’s an oxymoron as applied to Russian.

I had great hopes for Russian in 1989-1991. My own daughter has been there to help out. But the only difference between Putin’s feudal Russian today and the USSR of old is that the communist facade is gone; only the naked ambition and domineering aggression remains. Putin’s Russia will do no better for Georgians than she does to the average Russian. Georgia’s options are slavery or freedom; nothing else.

As for the USA being “overextended”; don’t count on it. America has proven that we can do a lot with just a few. The rapier has always won over the broadsword, and we’ve been on the ground in Georgia teaching the art of the rapier for several years now. Here’s wishing good hunting to Georgia’s troops and victory for an independent Georgia.

Old Salt
NOBC1130

Aug 9, 2008 - 1:40 pm 202. OldSalt:

For a more informed opinion: See Peter’s column.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/08092008/postopinion/opedcolumnists/raping_georgia_123664.htm

Aug 9, 2008 - 1:50 pm 203. osram:

Am I the only one whos seems to find Georgian claims, somewhat questionable at best?

I mean, it seems difficult to get a true, impartial, accurate picture of what is actually going on.

To make matters more confusing, some of the press quotes comming from Georgian officials seem to sound familiar.

Can anyone say “Baghdad Bob?!?
“There are no American infidels in Baghdad. Never!”
‘We have destroyed 2 tanks, fighter planes, 2 helicopters and their shovels – We have driven them back.”

Aug 9, 2008 - 2:00 pm 204. kabud:

osram——> one more enemy agent. added.

Aug 9, 2008 - 2:05 pm 205. Don:

Seems fairly straightforward
1) Putin thinks Oil’s come down a bit too much, he would like oil to be a little higher, thank you.
2) He wants to remind all those uppity little neighbors that while Americans talk a good game, in the end they are all talk (see Hungary and Czechoslovakia)
3) On general principle he wants to portray the US as feckless and weak

Aug 9, 2008 - 2:52 pm 206. whiskey:

Cedarford as usual mistakes the strategy Russia has pursued since Yeltsin.

Russia has decided to reconstitute it’s empire, and run most of Europe, through both monopoly of gas/oil, but also play another very dangerous game.

Russia has decided to throw away efforts at containing nuclear proliferation and instead assist it. Figuring that the natural target for jihadis and nukes will be the US (and Israel). No doubt Cedarford found Putin’s threat to assist jihadis in using small nukes against Israel (in his famous conversation with Israel’s PM) to be “amusing.” However, that same strategy is aimed directly at the US. Believing that legalism and “lawfare” will restrain any US response to the level of a lawsuit or indictment. Putin is probably right in that regard (US hit by proxies of Iran or Pakistan, who in turn were assisted in nuclear efforts by the Russians), at least until the third US city dies.

What Russian strategy boils down to, in essence, is encouraging Jihadis to nuke America, in the hope of the US being humbled enough so that Russia may once again strut on the world stage. Nuclear proliferation is a Russian AIM, they have no interest in stopping it they are indeed helping it, along with China which has the same aims.

Aug 9, 2008 - 3:44 pm 207. kabud:

just got this from intelligence sources:
————–
58th Red Army is complitely destroyed by Georgian armed forces “commandos”, kremlin general Khrulyov is injured badly and 58th army left without commanders after heavy bombardment of Georgian artillery!
Russian devil Putin changed 58th red army to 76th division of special forces from Pskov!
Georgia gonna kick KGB `high knee` very hard !!!

Aug 9, 2008 - 4:36 pm 208. buddy larsen:

osram, if you’re confused by the claims and counterclaims, just note whose army is inside whose nation, and whose people are being killed on foreign soil, and whose people are being killed on their own soil.

That ought to clear things up for you.

Aug 9, 2008 - 4:39 pm 209. kabud:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8C_bdc9Z74M

video of atrocities in Georgia

Aug 9, 2008 - 4:44 pm 210. kabud:

This is what awaits us all if we let th aggressors have their way

VIDEO

Aug 9, 2008 - 4:59 pm 211. Cannoneer No. 4:

Russian general wounded in Georgia’s rebel region

Lt. General Anatoly Khrulyov was wounded when a column of armored vehicles of his 58th army came under fire by Georgian forces outside the rebel capital of Tskhinvali

Aug 9, 2008 - 5:07 pm 212. fred:

Old_Salt, I see you also caught on to Peters’ column in the NY Post. Posted it earlier here, but I don’t mind if you caught it too. I figure between the two of us posting it, the article will get some attention. Col. Peters often has an interesting insight to share. Generally, though not always, I tend to disagree with his take on Islam (I’m harder on it and I hope someday he reads the Qur’an).

kabud,

I too have seen across a number of weblogs today people excusing Russia. Whiskey has it right: Whose forces are in whose country invading? The cassus belli was being “worked” for some time. Can’t say I blame the Georgians for losing their patience at this point. They were constantly goaded, prodded, and provoked.

Aug 9, 2008 - 5:26 pm 213. cjm:

gee, it would be a shame if some of those loose russian nukes made their way into moscow. the russians are great for the u.s. military budget but not much else. please point me to one country that has benefitted from russian assistance. cuba? guffaw. people who get their “knowledge” from the msm are woefully unprepared to understand anything beyond a crossword puzzle.

Aug 9, 2008 - 5:28 pm 214. fred:

I’m sorry, it was Buddy Larsen who made the point about whose army was inside whose country. I wish there was a way to edit posts. Sorry Buddy for the erroneous attribution.

Aug 9, 2008 - 5:28 pm 215. kabud:

fred:

a lot of what you see on the web is produced by informational department of KGB.
——–
Symposium: KGB Resurrection
April 30, 2004

.. Russian way of governing the country with the help of his political police, which now reportedly had more officers per capita than the former Soviet Union had had.

According to Yevgenia Albats, a Russian intelligence expert and author of a well-documented book about the KGB:

“the Soviet Union, with a population of 300 million, had approximately 700,000 political police agents; the new ‘democratic’ Russia, with a population of 150 million, has 500,000 Chekists.

Where we once had one Chekist for every 428 Soviet citizens, we now have one for every 297 citizens of Russia.
http://frontpagemag.com/Articles/Read.aspx?GUID=C71CB387-B559-4CAC-B1D9-21FAAA469234

Aug 9, 2008 - 5:45 pm 216. Georgia on our minds — infotainment rules:

[...] has a lot more at the Belmont [...]

Aug 9, 2008 - 5:54 pm 217. Dave:

exhelodrvr: I dissent. For what I have in mind we would only need for air superiority fighters to operate in the zone of concern/containment.

For a historical precedent, look at how the Royal Navy kept the Czar out of California between 1861 and 1865. And the Pacific
was not where they had concentrated strength.

Also, historically, when Russians have had to back down, they kept on backing. Stalin in the Ukraine seems to have been the exception.
Again referencing 1861-65, when their territorial ambitions got thwarted, they wound up selling Alaska as well. While one must be on guard against a temper tantrum over Georgia, I would give that a low probability weighting.

I concede that Uncle Sam lacks the complete combined arms capability that is our forte, but believe that other essential capabilities are there and useful.

And by the way, if you were flying in 68 as Dustoff 52, thanks for the timely lift.

Aug 9, 2008 - 6:09 pm 218. exhelodrvr:

Dave,
“if you were flying in 68 as Dustoff 52″

That was before my time; those helo pilots in Vietnam did some pretty amazing stuff.

The issue is not whether or not we could fly a few planes there; the issue is what happens if Russia ups the ante, and also what the long-term damage to us would be for getting publicly involved in something which is in the Russian sphere of influence. It’s a lose-lose for us.

Aug 9, 2008 - 6:13 pm 219. buddy larsen:

Also got to weigh what damage –and where –if we do nothing.

Aug 9, 2008 - 6:25 pm 220. buddy larsen:

’s ok fred –wasn’t really a point anyway –thanks for being scrupulous tho.

Aug 9, 2008 - 6:27 pm 221. kabud:

exhelodrvr, Dave

I can shortly tell what they plan.

They are not developing conventional arms that much,
basically they keep and increase WMDs:

in nukes they are several times more equipped then USA:

they have Anti-missile defense, part of which is the strategy to fire nukes in space to destroy incoming USA nukes

Their strategy will be to launch first strike against our launching facilities, subs, etc.
They know that the West will NEVER go first, so they exploit this advantage

Before they will launch this is what they plan:

1.attempt to destroy american economy, like they are doing now, including their agents in financial system here

2.attempt to destabilize political system, – both candidates for president are very unclear. It will be exploited

3.attempt to start a war in the Gulf

4.attempt to attack USA with the help of what is sold to us as ISLAMISTS(bullsht)-
this thing will happen as a biological massive attack aiming at killing all americans, hundreds of millions. Well, they will never be able to do it but it will be very bad, much worth then 9-11

USA is totally unprepared and has no civil defence.

After bio attack will happen: they plan to blow some ground nukes, if it will work for them: not very big but enough to destroy cities.

FBI director had a press conference on this in may 2007

Then their infiltrated commandos will try to attack our line of command and after that- nuke strike.

The final phase will be Chinese fleet bringing very many soldiers on our shores

————–

Events in georgia is a provocation and incouragment for chavez, tehran, etc

And- an attempt to rally russians for false-patriotism

Thats it.

Just make sure you guys remember all of it and tell everybody

They have their peole right in our government
ms rice is their agent, but not just her.

it is all very scary.

Aug 9, 2008 - 6:29 pm 222. SirSefirot:

“South Ossetia said the fighting on Tskhinvali’s southern fringes had ended at about mid-night on Saturday. The separatists’ site http://www.cominf.org said Georgian forces had lost 12 tanks and a bomber in the fighting.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSL949449820080809

You know, if this is true, the Georgians must be beating everything out of the Russians… Ten jets and possibly dozens of tanks versus a mere 12 tanks and 1 bomber? That’s a pretty good ratio. Although to be realistic I think that is a very conservative estimation of the armored casualties…

Aug 9, 2008 - 6:42 pm 223. kabud:

Georgians are more motivated then 300 Spartans

but it is all a precursor to nuke strike on USA((

Aug 9, 2008 - 6:46 pm 224. CPT. Charles:

Hmm…I wonder what’s going at Ft. Bragg tonight?

Aug 9, 2008 - 7:13 pm 225. SirSefirot:

In the wikipedia:
“According to a source in Georgian government, the Roki Tunnel used by Russians to bring in supplies and reinforcements, has been demolished.[105] Russian Ministry of Defense denied the report[106].”

If this is true, is one more point for the locals. Anyone can confirm that? I can’t read russian…

Aug 9, 2008 - 7:17 pm 226. kabud:

i can here if you read ukrainian:
http://www.unian.net/ukr/news/news-266306.html

i got this info several hours ago

Aug 9, 2008 - 8:09 pm 227. cedarford:

buddy larsen:
osram, if you’re confused by the claims and counterclaims, just note whose army is inside whose nation, and whose people are being killed on foreign soil, and whose people are being killed on their own soil.

That ought to clear things up for you.

A simplistic and deceiving claim. The US has never showed reticence in invading or threatening to invade the “soil” of a foreign country if our citizens have been killed there or are at risk. See our interventions in the Barbary States, against Indian nations, Grenada, Panama for examples. Or Pershings punitive expedition into Mexico after US nationals were killed inside Mexico and in a AZ border town.

Nor were S Ossetia or Abkhazia ever in agreement they were part of Georgia after the money and lobbying to create the Commonwealth of Independent States borders left them as part of Georgia. Abkhazia regards itself as independent of Georgia and did not take part in the elections, whilst South Ossetia favours union with its northern counterpart in Russia.

Britain famously invaded and trashed a few lands for the sake of the insult and harm done to a single subject of the British Empire.

The Russians are no different than Reagan and his invading Grenada to protect 700 US medical students – after Georgia violated the peace brokered in S Ossetia and killed almost 1,000 Russian passport holders – Russia is doing what other nations do.

The mentally and emotionally stunted, like Kabul, may say we need WWIII to start with US forces going in and killing Russian soldiers. Kabul, pathetic as he is, wishes any that oppose his views should get cancer.

More rational minds are focused on not challenging Russia militarily, but in diplomacy to stop Russia from using Saakashvili’s great blunder as pretext for erasing sovereign Georgia. At worse, the Israelis and the neocons lose their puppet leader as part of the bargain. NATO and EU membership, after Georgia’s aggression, now appear out of the question.

Aug 9, 2008 - 9:46 pm 228. cjm:

i laugh when cedarford uses words like “rational”. he should publish his own dictionary. he could devote an entire chapter to the word “neocon”. when you say “The Russians are no different than Reagan” it provokes the same reaction as a urine soaked drunk, demanding spare change. i know where you can get a pristine lord haw haw poster.

Aug 9, 2008 - 9:59 pm 229. express:

The US and Britain have called for an ‘immediate ceasefire’ between Russian and Georgian forces, after just one day’s fighting in South Ossetia. Could this be the same US and Britain that defied international calls [ http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/britain-and-us-defy-demand-for-immediate-ceasefire-408733.html for a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon in 2006, even several weeks into the conflict?

The US and Britain also say that they support Georgia’s ‘territorial integrity’.

Could this be the same US and Britain who, by championing Kosovan separatism, showed nothing but contempt for the ‘territorial integrity’ of Serbia?

There’s no Olympic competition for ‘Double Standards’. But if there were, then the US and Britain would be warm favourites to win medals.

Aug 9, 2008 - 10:34 pm 230. kabud:

cjm:

Reagan’s optimism was a cowardice

A make-believe, an actor’s act

He should have tell the truth to American People and act accordingly

He may be even had a chance to secure USA when USSR was at their weak point,

but he failed, -

wishful thinking, image politics, emptinessin the head, show business stupidity

mister gorbachov teared down the wall(((

pathetic old uneducated bad actor who failed his country

When the world war will finish – history will mark reagan as one of the stupidest

clinton or carter- they were just enemy agents, in full understanding that they are destroying America

but reagan – was a disgrace for the word patriot.

Aug 9, 2008 - 10:34 pm 231. LazP:

I don’t quite understand the whole situation here. What does Ossetia want to achieve here. Do they want to create a new country with a population of 70000 people or they want to join the Sovietunion, er, Russia? The whole population is about the size of or just slightly more than a typical American suburb!!! What exactly the goal here?

Aug 9, 2008 - 10:47 pm 232. kabud:

there is no Osetia

people in charge of South Osetia are all- and we know names and exact story on everyone-

all of them are kgb or military officers from Russia

Kremlin provokes West, working to increase oil price since Iran confrontation did not happened as planned

It is also a test of western unity for a future big war

And a signal to Chavez and alike: Kremlin does not care anymore about USA opinion and will support ANYONE acting against USA interest

So expect MORE BAD NEWS

If you check recent speech made by Medvedev(2 weeks , for foreign ambasadors) and some statements by UNKNOWN russian diplomats-

if you read that carefully u will find:

Kremlin specifically made it clear: they are parting with any even superficial friendship with USA

Thats all to it.

Well, and of course war rallies the worst fascist scum in Russia

Aug 9, 2008 - 10:54 pm 233. buddy larsen:

C4, that would make sense if America had captured its own ships and enslaved its own crews off the Barbary coast, in order to blame and then make war on innocent pashas, or if Pancho Villa, the 700 medical students, Sitting Bull, and Noriega had been planted agents-provocateurs. No I have no definitive evidence for my argument, but neither do you for yours –and i do have history, patterns, track-records, and common sense building a strong probability. Might or might not carry weight in a court, but this is a blog thread –guessing & speculation, often prejudiced (which on an either/or raises the question, why the one prejudice, and not the other?).

Aug 9, 2008 - 11:00 pm 234. express:

This is an imperialist conflict between the US and Russia.

Both want to assert control of the Caucasus because it is rich in oil and other mineral wealth.

The United States has reversed the position it took in the Balkans.

There, the US supported breakaway republics such as Bosnia and Kosovo.

In the Caucasus it is taking the exact opposite line and supporting “Georgian territorial integrity” against the South Ossetian secessionist state.

IT IS A BREATHTAKING U TURN WHICH ILLUSTRATES THE HYPOCRISY OF “OUR” LEADERS.

“There are fears of full-blown war in the region, which is a crucial energy transit route in which Russia and the west are vying for influence. President George Bush pledged US support for Georgia’s territorial integrity.”

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/aug/09/russia.georgia

The article explains the background to the situation better than anything you will read in the mainstream media:

http://www.wsws.org/articles/2008/aug2008/ruge-a09.shtml

Aug 9, 2008 - 11:03 pm 235. rcm:

Yeah, cjm, you’re right. For me Cedarford’s posts bring back a line from the Outlaw Josie Wales”:

“Don’t piss on my back and tell me it’s raining!”

Aug 9, 2008 - 11:08 pm 236. buddy larsen:

kabud, your posts are fascinating. They would be even more so if we could context them a bit better. Can you tell us something about yourself –nothing that will endanger you, just some sort of frame, that we may separate from any notion you might not be an expert on these things? I ask this in helpful friendship.

Aug 9, 2008 - 11:08 pm 237. buddy larsen:

express, here’s another BREATHTAKING U TURN; next door to Georgia and a few years ago, Russia killed in the tens of thousands, maybe more, and leveled an entire capital city (Grozny) to support that principle of which you speak, sovereign territory. You know, that thing that Georgia inexplicably has none of?

Aug 9, 2008 - 11:20 pm 238. Russian Bear:

kabud says:

Russian bear——>DESINFORMATOR-KGB OPERATIVE IN INFOWAR
PEOPLE BE AWARE,
IDENTIFY- LIST THEM- THEY WILL BE ATTACKING US WITH WEAPONS SOON

Yeah,yeah… I am. And I am going to inform the KGB, that there is a “funny guy” writing on Pajamas Media ander nick-name kabudAnd after that I am going to attack the USA with my nuclear hand grenade. Dig a shelter buddy…

Aug 9, 2008 - 11:35 pm 239. cjm:

cedarford is the kind of person who can’t forgive America for not meeting his expectations. a conditional patriot, which is to say, not a patriot at all. “they let jews in so it’s better that the whole place go up in flames. now that putin, there’s a man i can admire (especially when he has his shirt off)”.

Aug 10, 2008 - 2:18 am 240. Acting with ImPutiny « Don’t Drink the King’s Wine:

[...] fomented the pro-Kremlin uprising in South Ossetia; [...]

Jan 7, 2009 - 3:20 pm 241. Neil Craig:

Had Russia not acted the Georgians would have killed or ethnicly cleansed the whole place. It was an attempt to redo the Krajina Holocaust where an American trained Vraotian Nazi army carried out an American battle plan with NATO air assistance & murdered something like 125,000 civilians.

There can be no moral comparison at all between Putin, who acted to prevent a humanitarian disaster & the NATO leaders who authorised genocide of Serbs & cutting them open, by the thousand, while still alive, to provide organs for our hospitals.

Mar 12, 2009 - 8:33 am

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