Ralph Peters, who has been to Georgia, describes how to make sense of movements on the ground, describing what he believes are the logical Russian military goals.
- He says, “I wouldn’t expect to drive all the way to the Georgian capital - that would be too much for the West to stomach”
- Retake Tskhinvali, (the South Ossetian capital) then strike due south to cut Georgia’s lifelines to the world - the strategic highway, parallel rail line and international pipeline that connect Georgia’s eastern interior with its western ports.
- Aim for the town of Gori (which sits aside the strategic lifelines described above and is the guardian to Tbilisi)
- Get Abkhazia into the act in order to sweep down on Georgia’s Western Black Sea ports.
He also outlines Russia’s military challenges.
- “They have only a single route over the rugged Caucasus range. If Georgian commandos interdict it, the Russians will feel the supply pinch quickly. And any major Russian military operations need to be wrapped up before autumn snows close the passes - if there isn’t a cease-fire sooner.”
- The Russians require an airhead within Georgia to sustain operations
- The Russian Army must demonstrate more skill at sophisticated operations than they have done up until now
The possible outcomes listed by Peters are:
- Russian humiliation
- Russian victory
- Standoff
Which of these is most likely will become clear in the coming days. Readers will have noted that a number of Georgian brigades are permanently based at Gori, which has recently been bombed by Russian attack aircraft, but it is unclear how heavy the raids have been. There are Internet reports that the Ukraine (which has ex-Soviet weapons) has been a steady supplier of hardware to Georgia, and that BAE was scheduled to deliver modern anti-tank missiles to Georgia in the 4th Quarter of 2008, but it’s unclear how reliable these stories are.It’s hard to tell from open sources what the situation on the ground is. The Russians claim to have taken Tshhinvali and the Georgians claim otherwise. A Reuters report datelined Sat Aug 9, 2008 1:44pm EDT says:
Fighting gripped Georgia’s breakaway region of South Ossetia for a third day on Saturday, but it remained unclear just who was in control of the rebel capital Tskhinvali.
Russia announced it had seized control of the city, but Georgia denied that, saying Tskhinvali was in its hands.
Separatist officials, who are supported by Russia, appeared to contradict each other.
Eduard Kokoity, self-styled president of the separatist region, said a “second attempt” by Georgian forces to retake the town had been beaten back. … But, as he spoke, Boris Chochiyev, deputy head of the South Ossetian government, told reporters that Tskhinvali was now in the hands of Georgian forces.
“The city has been lost. We have been betrayed,” said Chochiyev, visibly shaken. He gave no details.
A Tskhinvali resident calling himself Soslan said by telephone that Russian troops had never actually entered the city to take control of it.
Control of Tskhinvali has apparently passed to the Russias. The BBC is reporting that Georgian forces have left South Ossetia and that the Russians are now in control of Tskhinvali. “Georgian troops have pulled back to positions at or south of those held on 6 August, when the current hostilities began, said Georgian Interior Ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili. … He told the BBC that the withdrawal was necessary because of the mass casualties both within Georgia and South Ossetia, at the hands of the Russians. Mr Utiashvili said 100 Georgian soldiers had been killed and many more injured.”
The Russian advances were not without cost. Reuters reported that the Russian General commanding the operation has been wounded by Georgian forces. “MOSCOW (Reuters) - The commander of the Russian troops sent to help separatists in Georgia’s breakaway region of South Ossetia was wounded in an exchange of fire with Georgian forces on Saturday, Russian state television reported. Lt. General Anatoly Khrulyov was wounded when a column of armored vehicles of his 58th army came under fire by Georgian forces outside the rebel capital of Tskhinvali, Vesti-24 channel said in a report early on Sunday. It did not say how serious his wounds were.”
But why are the two sides fighting for this unknown ville? Because Tskhinvali is like the cork in the Caucasus bottle, where the mountain passes enters the plain. It is 30 km north of Gori, whose importance we described earlier. If the Russian Army takes Tskhinvali they will be within striking distance of the Georgian heart.
It looks from the map like this was a game of the “race to Tskhinvali” from the outset. Whoever could get there with heavy weapons quickest had an advantage. If Georgia knew the Russians were coming in with the 58th Army (of Chechnya fame which Peters claims must have been held in readiness for just such a move) then a pre-emptive advance into Tskhinvali would suggest itself to them. Published reports a pretty heavy expenditure of ammunition, with the Russians vowing to smash the Georgian counterbattery. That ammo has got to come up the road across the Caucasus. Basic loads are going to be exhausted pretty soon. Factor that into the calculation whenever you hear about a “ceasefire”. Both sides will be looking to resupply. Weather will be a factor, though not now. The forecast is for fine and sunny weather over the next five days.
What of quality? Allan Malinson who is Defense Historian at the Daily Telegraph, makes some observations whose accuracy will soon be put to the test. He claims Russian “Shock and Awe” has failed and it will now come down to actual military maneuver. “They did not have enough force to deploy overwhelmingly and therefore decisively from the outset – which might have overawed the Georgians without a shot. This has forced them to over-rely on artillery, one of the least discriminating weapons systems, especially the multi-barrelled rocket launcher.” He claims the Russians have brought in the Spetsnaz in order to gain more precision. (Or are they, as in Grozny, making up for a deficiency in infantry support for their tanks. The mountains share characteristics with urban warfare in that armor needs protection? — Wretchard). Finally, he examines the logistics and staff quality of both sides:
Despite South Ossetia’s semi-autonomous status, the Georgian army is operating on essentially interior lines of communication, while the Russians are deployed at the end of a very long line indeed. On paper, Georgian forces number some 18,000, but there are probably fewer than 12,000 effective combat troops, which is why the contingent in Iraq is being recalled. … The army has been American-trained, and increasingly American-equipped, for the past 10 years, and strongly focused on Nato admission: there will be some capable commanders and staff officers, therefore.
There is now a maritime aspect to the war. Bloomberg reports that the Russian Black Sea fleet is headed for Abkhazia and there are rumors of landings. The Ukranians have responded by threatening to bar Russian vessels based at their ports if they are used against Georgia.
Russia has received no official communication from Georgia about Saakashvili’s offer, the Kremlin press office said by telephone. Ships of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet moved toward Abkhazia, another separatist region, and Georgia’s largest port, Poti, while Russian jets crossed the border every 15 minutes to attack military and civilian targets in as many as six locations simultaneously, Georgian Security Council secretary Kakha Lomaia said. Russia’s actions amounted to “full-scale war,” he said.
UN observers are now reporting that Abkhazia is preparing for military operations in the Kodori Valley in the West. “On April 2, 2002 Georgian and Abkhazian sides signed a demilitarization agreement for Kodori Gorge. UNOMIG-monitored withdrawal of 350 Georgian troops ended on April 10. However, Russian 100 ground forces entered the Kodori Gorge without having any peacekeeping mandate on the morning of April 12. They were soon surrounded by the Georgian Defence Ministry forces. A likely armed conflict was prevented by President Eduard Shevardnadze going to Kodori to bring the situation under control. The UN representatives in the Georgian-Abkhaz conflict theater also condemned the Russian action. On April 14, a Russian military unit left the gorge.” Reuters reports:
U.N. assistant secretary-general for peacekeeping Edmond Mulet told reporters there have been “very substantial numbers of casualties, refugees and destruction” in Georgia. At this point we are particularly concerned that the conflict appears to be spreading beyond South Ossetia into Abkhazia,” Mulet said.
“Our UNOMIG military observers report ongoing military preparation by the Abkhaz de facto authorities for a military operation in the upper Kodori valley, probably tomorrow morning.” Mulet told the U.N. Security Council that the Abkhaz authorities had asked him to withdraw U.N. military observers, known as UNOMIG, from the upper Kodori valley in Abkhazia but had declined to give him a reason.
The expulsion of UNOMIG from the Kodori gorge has an obvious meaning, as you can see from this Google terrain map. The Russians are threatening to pour down the Gorge and cut off the major Georgian Black Sea ports on the West: Batumi, P’ot’i, Sukhumi. This would clearly be an existential threat to Georgia itself and would no longer be about South Ossetia. It can be understood as nothing else but a direct Russian invasion of Georgia. The ante is being upped. The press is alive to the danger now. The IHT says the Security Council Meeting ended without a Russian agreement for a ceasefire. It mentions the Kodori gorge situation. “Russia refused to agree to a cease-fire or a diplomatic agreement with Georgia on Saturday, ensuring that fighting over the breakaway South Ossetia region would keep spilling over to areas such as Abkhazia’s Kodori Ridge, where 15 U.N. military observers were told to evacuate.”
Radio Free Europe’s interview with area expert Liz Fuller suggests that operations in the Kodori are merely preparatory. “Q. What will be the impact of Abkhazia’s decision to begin military operations against Georgian troops in the Kodori Gorge? A. I’m not sure whether they’re planning to retake the Kodori Gorge, but they’ve obviously decided that this is the most useful strategic thing they can do to strengthen their own position, and this is something they can do in line with their cooperation agreement with South Ossetia to make life that much more difficult for the Georgian military. As I understand it, Abkhaz warplanes have bombed, I think, infrastructure rather than the position of Georgian Interior Ministry troops, although that is not altogether clear to me. But certainly, anything that the Abkhaz can do to make the operations of Georgian troops in Kodori more difficult is going to be of benefit to the Abkhaz in the long term.” The Gorge is the southern leg of Sukhumi military road. It is a tough piece of terrain to traverse. Voices From Russia carries this dispatch from the Abkhazians.
Today, in accordance with standing agreements with South Ossetia, the Abkhazian forces launched operations against Georgian positions illegally situated in the upper reaches of the Kodor Gorge, according to government sources in Sukhumi. “Air strikes and artillery barrages hit this portion of the gorge”, Kristian Bzhaniya, the official spokesman of the Abkhazian presidential administration reported to our Interfax correspondent. “During this phase of the operation, there is going to be no direct contact by units of the Abkhazian forces. Thus far, our troops have not entered the sector controlled by Georgian formations. Therefore, we were quite amazed to hear Saakashvili’s claim that the Georgian forces had repelled attacks in the Kodor Gorge”.
Nor has the political aspect of the war stood still. Vladimir Putin has flown to North Ossetia from Beijing. The Radio Free Europe interview above suggests the Russians are putting ever more resources into operation. ” Paratroopers and other troops being flown in from Moscow, from Ivanovo — not just from Mozdok in the North Caucasus but from other bases in Russia”. In Eastern Europe the Balts and the Poles have reacted strongly to developments. “The presidents of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have issued a joint statement condemning what they see as the naked aggression of Russia against the independent state of Georgia, as hostilities continue in the breakaway state of South Ossetia. … The [Polish] President said that Poland would offer Georgia any help it asked for. “We are not planning to send any troops there, but anything is possible.”
So that’s the shape of the arena. I hope this helps Belmont Club readers make sense of news reports
Tip Jar.
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153 Comments
1. Doug:- Russian jets targeted major oil pipeline-Georgia -
- Russian fighter jets targeted the the major Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline which carries oil to the West from Asia but missed, Georgia’s Economic Development Minister Ekaterina Sharashidze said on Saturday. “This clearly shows that Russia has not just targeted Georgian economic outlets but international economic outlets in Georgia,” she said at a news briefing. There have been no independent verifications of Russian jets targeting the BTC pipeline.
Georgia and Russia Nearing All-Out War
Moscow Broadens Its Air Campaign; Bush Calls for Halt
Russia and Georgia veered closer to war in clashes that appeared to be Moscow’s worst since the ’80s. Russia said 1,500 civilians were killed in South Ossetia.
Under President Obama, we could inflate our tyres and render all this irrelevant.
Aug 9, 2008 - 3:21 pm 2. John Samford:I think you are correct in that if this goes on past the weekend, it will turn into a war of attrition which means logistics is king.
Logistics was always a Soviet weak point, it will be interesting to see if the Russians have paid any attention to their logistical deficiencies since the fall of the Peoples Soviets.
This is another reason why I think the USA will miss an excellent opportunity to fold, staple and mutilate the cardboard bear. If the Russians pay little attention to logistics, then the US Army pays too much. The REMF’s do do what they do well. So you have an American strength going against a Russian weakness. This should be exploited.
It won’t be, since President Bush is all hat and no cattle.
200 Javelins supplied to Georgian commando teams operating against that long, thin, weak reed of a supply line would make a world of difference.
“In a man to man fight the winner is the one who puts an extra round in his magazine”
Aug 9, 2008 - 3:36 pm 3. RWE:-Field Marshal Erwin Rommel
I was surprised to discover that Georgia the country is smaller than Georgia the state. And probably less well armed, even not considering the redneck factor.
I has asked if anyone knew what aircraft were produced there, and I believe it was Cannoneer that pointed out it was the Su-25 Frogfoot, as well as proving a link to an article that said the country was cooperating with the Israelis to upgrade the avionics of those airplanes.
For those that don’t know, the Frogfoot is basically a designed for much the same mission as the A-10. It does not have a gun as large as the A-10’s GAU-8, but on the other hand, it is rather smaller and somewhat faster.
The Georgian Air Force apparently has a total of 35 Su-25’s - and that is about it in terms of their combat aircraft. They also built quite a few trainer versions of the Mig-21, but that has been a while now and it is unlikely that any of those are around. The engines for the Su-25 are made in Russia, but there were enough Su-25’s supplied to so many countries that they made be able to find some spare parts there. However, Soviet era jet engines were notoriously short lived, which may mean that they stocked up on spares as a matter of course.
So, the Georgians could do far worse than to be equipped with the Frogfoot for their present conflict, but it is likely that is about all they have. The aircraft is fairly short ranged with a weapons load, so it is unlikely to be used to strike outside the country.
Given the characteristics of the Su-25, counter air capabilities for the country will likely be limited to ground-based missiles and AAA.
Aug 9, 2008 - 3:40 pm 4. wretchard:This link Shows what the Russian supply line looks like. It’s very temptint to speculate on what will actually happen, but I’d like to request readers to scavenge for open source information on the following subjects:
1. Any old unclassified Georgian defense plans for a Russian invasion scenario, maybe even dating from history.
Aug 9, 2008 - 3:49 pm 5. buddy larsen:2. What implications a Russian blockade or seizure of Georgian Black Sea ports would create?
be interesting to know what the no-drilling “because it won’t change prices immediately” democrats are thinking about all this.
Aug 9, 2008 - 3:58 pm 6. trangbang68:John Samford,
Aug 9, 2008 - 4:03 pm 7. Armitage:While I’d love to see Mother Russia get pounded to paste; I don’t see how a country with 10000
nuclear missiles is a “cardboard bear”.
The updates on the Wikipedia entry on the 2008 South Ossetia War suggests, via Georgian news sources, that the Roki Tunnel (one of the key land routes into the valley that leads to Tskhinvali) has been destroyed. The Russians, obviously, deny this, but if it were to be severed, this would be deeply significant. The Wiki entries, based upon Russian news sources, are indicating that elements of at least one airborne division have been airlifted into Tskhinvali (likely by helicopter, as there is no airfield in Tskhinvali according to Google Earth), with another airborne division moving to follow. Light troops cannot holdout forever without armor, but it would suggest that upwards of three divisions (the 58th Army has one) are in the area or are in motion to the region.
Aug 9, 2008 - 4:04 pm 8. Armitage:But whatever success the Georgians have in sealing the Russians out of South Ossetia by land, the Russians have apparently implemented a blockade of the Georgian Black Sea coastline, turning back at least one third-party merchant vessel from Poli.
Aug 9, 2008 - 4:09 pm 9. Wadeusaf:Thoughts on the matter as it stands, Turkey and its navy, will be a huge part of the key, as will be Iran if the conflict continues. If Iran enters on Russia’s side it will be to pinch off the supply routes through Armenia. Where will Iraq stand, especially Kurds. Logic may or may not enter into the equation.
If Russia continues with aggressive moves, watch for its allies in the Savant come to life.
Aug 9, 2008 - 4:12 pm 10. Rob73:With Israel working with both Georgia and Turks watch for Syrian and Hezbolla agitation to follow as well. We will see what comes.
To whatever extent the Georgians were well-prepared for this, I’d think you rush for the Roki Tunnel more than Tskhinvali . . . . or are there other ways in? If the report Armitage refers to is correct, and the Georgians have in fact sealed off the tunnel, and this is why the Russians are now airlifting in light troops, then–maybe the Georgians have got their act together here far more than I was starting to think. Still too much fog to say with any certainty, of course.
Aug 9, 2008 - 4:16 pm 11. buddy larsen:It will also be interesting to see if Georgian claims to have knocked down a Russian heavy bomber turn out to be true.
Of course, the Russians are reported to have building up for an attack out of Abkhazia for some time.
alas, air supremacy will cover that airborne lodgement, and bulldozers will make short work of damage to tunnel entrances
Aug 9, 2008 - 4:18 pm 12. Armitage:Buddy,
Air superiority goes to Russia, to be sure, but damage to tunnel is hotly disputed. The Georgian Defense ministry is claiming to have hit it (the distances are not too great to rule this out by commandos or pre-registered artillery) and the Russians suggest otherwise. The question is not whether the close is permanent or not, but whether the damage is sufficient to create a significant delay in reopening. Bulldozers will make short work, but short work could not be fast enough.
Aug 9, 2008 - 4:23 pm 13. wretchard:alas, air supremacy will cover that airborne lodgement, and bulldozers will make short work of damage to tunnel entrances
In my previous post, and repeatedly in my comments, I mentioned that air superiority would play a key role here and suggested early on that a deployment of fighters to Turkey would send a signal against Russia escalating this. First, they could not take air superiority for granted, even if US forces were not in action against them. They’d have to precautionarily assume they could lose air superiority any time. Also, it would deter a heavy bombing of Georgian targets, which could escalate this.
That didn’t happen. But there is probably another form of covert support which may or may not be available to the Georgians. Sigint and overhead reconnaissance. If GPS guided munitions or ordnance is available to the Georgians, then that will be a factor. The Russian airborne is a quick way to get light infantry into the battle because they need to clear the hills to make way for the Russian tanks. Did the Georgians let advance elements of the Russian 58th get through the tunnel and shut the door behind them? That would be the Chechen way, and essentially what happened to Maikop.
Personally I think that a big Georgian victory, assuming it could happen and even if it is only tactical, would be dangerous because a humiliation would rev up the Russians and plant the seeds for revenge. The best outcome here is to limit the fighting to South Ossetia; get the Russians and Georgians to demilitarize South Ossetia, give it some sort of autonomous status and then, when the dust dies down, bring Georgia into NATO with no more border disputes, the South Ossetians essentially being given what they wanted, and in exchange, the Georgians given security.
Aug 9, 2008 - 4:29 pm 14. buddy larsen:watching the previous thread? just appeared:
kabud:
just got this from intelligence sources:
————–
58th Red Army is complitely destroyed by Georgian armed forces “commandos”, kremlin general Khrulyov is injured badly and 58th army left without commanders after heavy bombardment of Georgian artillery!
Russian devil Putin changed 58th red army to 76th division of special forces from Pskov!
Georgia gonna kick KGB `high knee` very hard !!!
Aug 9, 2008 - 4:36 pm
Aug 9, 2008 - 4:46 pm 15. RWE:By the way, the Ukrainians reportedly have a fairly large number of SU-25’s in service (90) as well as more than 20 in storage. I would be surprised if some of those aircraft were not enroute to Georgia. Others are in storage in places such as the Czech Republic. And of course there may even be some surviving in Iraq.
Interestingly enough, after the fall of the USSR, some of the former republics found themselves with strategic bombers, including the Backfire supersonic bomber.
And they wanted no part of them. Russia refused to take them back, and at least one country (either Kazahastan or Ukraine, I think) invited the USAF in to destroy them. This was done by ground teams rather than airstrikes.
I have often thought that a more Machivellian approach would have seen the bombers go elsewhere, preferably quietly. Israel, perhaps. Or Georgia.
But we were at the end of history then and weren’t gonna study war no more. Besides, bombers that size are a bit difficult to hide and offer no plausible deniability in terms of them being airliners or crop dusters.
Aug 9, 2008 - 4:54 pm 16. Cannoneer No. 4:Russian general wounded in Georgia’s rebel region
Aug 9, 2008 - 5:08 pm 17. wretchard:What can you infer from this, just in from Haaretz? My inference is that the Israelis think there will still be a Georgia at the end of this. It also provides an insight into how may Iran be armed by Russia against Israel in retaliation.
Aug 9, 2008 - 5:09 pm 18. Rob73:Wow, Reuters is now reporting that the same general Kabud mentioned is indeed badly wounded.
Aug 9, 2008 - 5:19 pm 19. Cannoneer No. 4:An Israeli PMC is providing advisors.
Sounds like the Israeli Foreign Ministry is about as worthless as USDOS.
Aug 9, 2008 - 5:21 pm 20. Richard Fernandez:Reuters is now reporting that the same general Kabud mentioned is indeed badly wounded.
Was his command vehicle radiating signals like a lighthouse I wonder? And was that coordinate fed into the fire control computers of Georgian artillery? The dataset is too thin, but you can catch glimpses of the Georgian way of war. Decapitation strikes, hitting choke points, getting inside the OODA cycle of the Russians.
If the Russians are having a hard time of it, then now is the time to offer them a face saving out. Otherwise the Russians may, in their wounded pride, just up the ante. Come back with more. Do whatever it takes. And how do you persuade the Georgians from gloating, if indeed they can gloat? Like I’ve argued previously, the name of this game is reassuring your ally so that you can keep them from running off into dangerous ground. Enthusiasms are dangerous.
Aug 9, 2008 - 5:25 pm 21. Cannoneer No. 4:Defensive Shield
Will Georgia copy Israel or Hezbollah?
To thicken the plot, the Israeli company said to be providing advice to the Tblisi government is one Defensive Shield, owned by General Gal Hirsh, the former commander of the 91st division of IDF’s Northern military command and one of the first general officers to retire before the Vinograd commission reported on Israel’s failures during the Second Lebanese War.
Aug 9, 2008 - 5:27 pm 22. Rob73:If the Russians are having a hard time of it, then now is the time to offer them a face saving out.
Aug 9, 2008 - 5:32 pm 23. cjm:—————————————————
Agreed!!
the mouse never sees the trap, only the prize inside. we bled the russians white in afghanistan, and this is another opportunity to do the same.
i predict someone will light up the main russian oil fields — depriving them permanently of their only source of revenue.
what are the chances that the russian icbm’s are as crappily made as every other weapon they make.
Aug 9, 2008 - 5:42 pm 24. wretchard:CNN quotes Interfax as saying Tskhinvali no longer exists. So maybe the Russians don’t have it.
All these claims are going to get cleared up in the next few days.
Aug 9, 2008 - 5:47 pm 25. whiskey:I think the Russians pretty much HAVE to capture the Georgian Capital and simply annex Georgia. There is no half-measures, among them Putin would be too vulnerable among rivals arguing he “lost” a historic opportunity to make examples and start reconquering the Soviet Empire.
Russians have advantages in manpower, wealth, as mentioned levers with Iran and elsewhere to keep allies out of helping Georgia.
I think by the end of it, Georgia will be reconquered, through sheer brutality and resource advantage, the Russian way. And explicit examples made of Georgians to intimidate the Ukraine, Baltic republics, Poland, Eastern Europe, Germany, Italy, France, and the UK.
Europe is so disarmed that whoever can capture it first — Russia or Islam, will have a great prize. Liberals and such bet that the “end of history” is afoot, violent wars of conquest at an end. Such obviously is not the case.
Aug 9, 2008 - 5:49 pm 26. Cannoneer No. 4:Observing the Outbreak of War In Georgia
Last night the Russian Air Force reportedly devastated the Georgian Black Sea port of Poti. Local language (unverified) internet reports suggest both the Slava class cruiser Moskva and the Kara class cruiser Kerch are part of Russian naval group that deployed, and the Kilo class submarine Alrosa was reportedly not in port. The number of and types of other Russian naval vessels has not been reported. Speculation by some local sources suggests an amphibious operation may be in the works. Specifically there are some local internet reports of activity among the three Ropucha class LSTs. We want to reiterate that these reports are unverified, but note that because of where these unofficial internet reports are coming from, they may be credible.
Aug 9, 2008 - 5:50 pm 27. Mike Sylwester:Wadeusaf:
“If Iran enters on Russia’s side it will be to pinch off the supply routes through Armenia.”
———-
The Ossetian language is related to Farsi, the main Iranian language.
Aug 9, 2008 - 5:56 pm 28. cjm:good thing we have two extra carrier groups headed that way. interesting how they left before this all blew up…
Aug 9, 2008 - 5:58 pm 29. fred:Am I correct to assume that:
1. A pre-positioned armored division (58th)ready to move well before this thing blew up.
2. The Soviet, er Russian, air force attempting to bomb strategic targets.
3. The insertion of a Soviet, er Russian, airborne division.
4. The speedy deployment of the Soviet, er Russian, Black Sea Fleet into a blockade of Georgian ports.
Is in fact a full-out invasion of Georgia with the purpose of either slicing and dicing it or annexing it?
Please correct me if my logic is flawed.
Aug 9, 2008 - 6:58 pm 30. honestjoe:This situation with Georgia could be a strategic diversion that has been created for Russia so that Iran can be taken care of. A sort of trade off.
4 (four) naval battle groups will soon be operating in the Gulf for what a spokesman termed “force-protection policy.” Correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t the attack on Iraq only use one?
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1218104233164&pagename=JPArticle%2FShowFull
“U.S. Aircraft Carriers Head For The Gulf; Kuwait Prepares “Emergency War Plan”
http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7011874353
Operation Brimstone is a US/UK/French naval battle force currently that “WAS” conducting exercises as a show of force for Iran to capacitate to U.S. demands. But this already massive task force is currently being reinforced for what appears (to the layman) to be a strike force and or to create an air/land/sea blockade of Iran for certain key economic necessities.
http://www.news.navy.mil/search/display.asp?story_id=38478
Reports in the Kremlin today are stating that Prime Minister Putin has ordered the Defense Ministry of the Russian Federation to put the Volga-Urals Military District and Black Sea Fleet on ‘full war alert’ to prepare for the defense of the Iranian Nation against what is being termed as an ‘imminent attack’ being planned by the Western Powers.
I suppose it could all be a bunch of saber rattling but this is the perfect time (while many are distracted with the Olympics) to force Iran into a confrontation so as to then be able to declare a formal act-of-war supported by the people and even lefties.
The gamble is weather Russia will take the bait and commit large enough forces to Georgia so as to be unable to intervene with U.S. operations against Iran.
Aug 9, 2008 - 6:59 pm 31. wretchard:Fred, see my latest update. The UN observers are being thrown out of the demilitarized Kodori Gorge opening a direct route to the rear of the Georgian Black Sea ports. That move is clear and direct threat to the territorial integrity of Georgia. If the Russians come down the Kodori Gorge then we are in a whole new world. I believe we are letting this get away from us. The bigger this gets the harder the brakes must be stomped on when they are inevitably applied.
Aug 9, 2008 - 7:02 pm 32. Doug:I’m w/Whiskey on this.
Seems like the intelligent thing to TRY would be to offer up South Ossetia and Abkhazia free and clear and any other White Flag Measures they could think of in hopes of making Russia look so bad that even Pootie Poot would call a halt.
Easy call from the sidelines, of course.
—
In Georgia Clash, a Lesson on U.S. Need for Russia
Ny Time’s view:
While America considers Georgia an ally, it needs Russia too much on issues like Iran to risk it all to back Georgia.
Candidates’ Reactions Offer Hints at Style on World Stage
Aug 9, 2008 - 7:04 pm 33. cjm:use a crop duster plane to fill that gorge with a flammant, light match, and retire to a save distance.
Aug 9, 2008 - 7:17 pm 34. Rob73:The Russians are threatening to pour down the Gorge
______________________
My read of link was that the Abkhaz/Russians already control the lower portion of the Gorge. Is it that they need to dislodge the Georgians from the upper reaches to be able to use the lower safely for transit?
Aug 9, 2008 - 7:17 pm 35. RWE:Fox News Channel is reporting that the Russians are using “strategic bombers and ballistic missiles” against the Georgians, including against “civilian targets.”
This probably means Tu-95 Bear bombers and SS-1 Scud ballistic missiles.
This may indicate they are getting tough, but it more likely indicates that they do not have tactical air assets capable of doing the job.
Aug 9, 2008 - 7:22 pm 36. fred:Doug,
The folks over at Pinch Sulzer’s rag must be smoking weed in bales if they think we need Russia to solve the standoff with Iran and its nuke program. Russia is willingly and generously helping Iran to arm and to protect the sites where it is developing nuclear weapons’ capability. If they really believe the fiction that Russia would be on our side if we would but give up on Georgia, they need to be given meds and assigned a padded room.
Aug 9, 2008 - 7:22 pm 37. Armitage:Wretchard et al.,
We can measure the sense of the Western governments on the likelihood of Russian escalation by their attitude on evacuation. If Western intelligence concludes that the Russians are going to escalate, then the Western embassies will get nonessentials and passport-holders out sooner rather than later. The U.S. has begun to do this, with two caravans to Turkey tomorrow and Monday. Wu Wei’s blog does not indicate that the Brits are moving people out yet, but we should watch this very closely to see what the others do.
Aug 9, 2008 - 7:24 pm 38. wretchard:I’m sure the Georgians know all about Kodori. But they only have so many brigades and the Bear is widening the embracing by the hour so that sooner or later the Georgians will have a threat axis they can’t cover. Realistically, the Georgians can only buy time by yielding territory dearly to the Russians. I think Putin was counting on a fait accompli, with the major action over under the cover of the Olympics. But each hour the Russians don’t finish this hardens the coalition against them. The old Western alliance has snapped back under this threat. Politically speaking time is not on the Russian’s side.
At some point the West may become so alarmed they will risk confronting Russia. Putin is gambling that the West won’t reach this point until after his armor has rolled into Tbilisi. The Georgians by their resistance are gambling the Russians won’t get to Tbilisi before the West reaches this point. Who will win the race?
Aug 9, 2008 - 7:28 pm 39. fred:Then, by all accounts, Georgia is now annexed to Russia - a brute fact that only needs the loose ends tied up. If you are using strategic bombers to liquidate civilian populations inside Georgia, then your objective is not the annexation of South Ossetia alone. They’ve come for the whole kit and caboodle and they will not be nice about how they do it. If they have to be savage about it, they will. It appears that the Russians are completely unconcerned about how much they have to butcher in order to make this a done deal. World opinion does not matter to them.
The Mullahs in Tehran must be laughing and celebrating.
The Left in the West, seeded with agents of dizinformatzia, must be high-fiving each other. Their socialist comrades are reviving the state that once was their shining example on a hill. Nothing - NOTHING - demoralized the Left in the West more than the fall of the Soviet Union and its empire.
Aug 9, 2008 - 7:29 pm 40. Doug:Absolutely, Fred, but you must admit they have quite a brain-trust going when compared to Madam Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Reid.
Aug 9, 2008 - 7:29 pm 41. Rob73:Miller caller suggests:
“Sphincter of the House”
Wretchard and Fred,
Aug 9, 2008 - 7:35 pm 42. Doug:Can you say more about why the use of strategic bombers and seeming preparation for a thrust at the ports suggest that the Russians are going for Tbilisi? Couldn’t the first two just be to “up the pain” on Georgia, in the hopes they’ll “give up” on whatever (perhaps, to date successful) resistance they’ve managed to mount against the 58th Army in South Ossetia?
Fred,
Aug 9, 2008 - 7:36 pm 43. wretchard:Think of what Russia’s place on the World Stage will be if they end up with all the Petro resources of places like Turkmenistan, et al.
Georgia is not dead and it will take a lot of killing. Nations die hard. And it costs. It took a long time for the Russians to stomp the Chechens and they aren’t completely stomped yet. If Putin had been able to give Georgia the Bum’s Rush that would be one thing. But the Georgians have turned this into a via dolorosa for the Bear. It will be a geopolitical catastrophe for Russia. Alarm bells are ringing in the Ukraine, the Baltics, and Poland. The wagons will be circled. The Cold War is probably back, as of now. And for what? Dogpatch?
Aug 9, 2008 - 7:41 pm 44. wretchard:Can you say more about why the use of strategic bombers and seeming preparation for a thrust at the ports suggest that the Russians are going for Tbilisi? Couldn’t the first two just be to “up the pain” on Georgia, in the hopes they’ll “give up” on whatever (perhaps, to date successful) resistance they’ve managed to mount against the 58th Army in South Ossetia?
That’s a manner of speaking. The Russians don’t have to take Tbilisi to cut up Georgia. But they had better, otherwise it would have been like attacking Iraq and stopping short of Baghdad. In other words, an unstable position. The Russians have already gone too far for their own good. Had they pulled back they could have made their point and acted the savior of the Ossetians. In a little while it will no longer be “about” Ossetia. It will be about Russia. There’s still time, but it’s ticking away.
Aug 9, 2008 - 7:45 pm 45. Doug:“Since early 2000s visible positive developments have been observed in the economy of Georgia. In 2006 Georgia’s real GDP growth rate reached 8.8%, making Georgia one of the fastest growing economies in Eastern Europe.[1] The World Bank dubbed Georgia “the number one economic reformer in the world” because it has in one year improved from rank 112th to 18th in terms of ease of doing business.[45]However, the country has high unemployment rate of 12.6% and has fairly low median income compared to European countries.
IMF 2006 estimates place Georgia’s nominal GDP at US$7.76 billion. Georgia’s economy is becoming more devoted to services (now representing 54.8% of GDP), moving away from agricultural sector ( 17.7%).[1]
The country has sizable hydropower resources.
The 2006 ban on imports of Georgian wine to Russia, one of Georgia’s biggest trading partners, and break of financial links was described by the IMF Mission as an “external shock”,[46] In addition, Russia increased the price of gas for Georgia. This was followed by the spike in the Georgian lari’s rate of inflation.[citation needed] The National Bank of Georgia stated that the inflation was mainly triggered by external reasons, including Russia’s economic embargo.[47] The Georgian authorities expected that the current account deficit the embargo would cause in 2007 would be financed by “higher foreign exchange proceeds generated by the large inflow of foreign direct investment” and an increase in tourist revenues.[48] The country has also maintained a solid credit in international market securities.[49]
Georgia is becoming more integrated into the global trading network: its 2006 imports and exports account for 10% and 18% of GDP respectively.[1] Georgia’s main imports are natural gas, oil products, machinery and parts, and transport equipment.”
Aug 9, 2008 - 7:51 pm 46. fred:Doug, Wretchard,
I know to some people this sounds farfetched, but pieces of the pattern suggest it. I’ve been following for several years now the discussions and debates about the anti-ballistic missile defense system. I have a keen interest in this, not just because of the fact that I have a brother-in-law who is high up in the program. I see this evolving and successful (but Obama lies about its success, by telling people it’s a failure)program as essential to our national defense and to the stability of the world order in a time of rampant proliferation.
Moscow, Tehran, and Beijing desperately want this program GONE. We have a candidate for office who has often repeated his promise that he will end it. Well, anything that sabotages our economy, like very, very high oil prices, can be an important wild card in the upcoming election. Cause enough pain and Obama seems a tempting alternative. And when he takes office, and when he beats down the congressional and defense opposition to it, he ends the missile defense program. This means that the three most aggressive, totalitarian nations have the ability to bully their way to domination of their respective regions. Russia and China are betting that the Mullahs will not turn on them, and it would seem for now a safe bet on their part. But all three of us want us boxed in a corner with little ability to get out.
Europe has virtually no ability to deal with any sizeable threat.
Putin thinks he has planned more moves ahead of the Mullahs. The Mullahs probably know this and have a deeper game. The Chinese just might want to watch Iran and Russia class for domination.
Aug 9, 2008 - 7:52 pm 47. Final Historian:Richard, I think that, contra general opinion, the Cold War never truly ended. It merely lapsed into remission for a while. Now it is cancerous again, thanks to our former friends in the KGB who now run Russia. Right now Russia might still be signaling, hoping that they can get something more from Georgia, probably dealing with proposed and actual pipelines. If, however, they do intend to carry through, I am not sure that we should sit this one out. Right now we have to really think about the cost/benefit analysis of pretty much every possible iteration of this scenario. I wish that I was confident that much of this was already done. I do not envy President Bush right now.
Aug 9, 2008 - 7:56 pm 48. buddy larsen:Precisely the plan, doug. And the world’s limpid apologists are already forgiving them, saying “well, NATO in the former republics was just too much to ask them to tolerate” (as if the wishes of the peoples of the new NATO members don’t count fer shit, as if the Russians aren’t the very reason the people WANT to be in NATO in the FIRST place) and “Annexing Georgia is just Kremlin payback for Kosovo” (as if the Kremlin show over Kosovo wasn’t a deliberate set-up for launching that very meme, along with the 58th Army).
Aug 9, 2008 - 7:57 pm 49. cjm:the wild card is what weaponry has already been placed in georgia, and what the georgian troops learned how to do in iraq. the russian war doctrine is well known and the russians don’t ever seem to deviate from it, so a lot of damage can be done to them. another wild card is bush; a report that he was in a heated argument with putin, in bejing.
Aug 9, 2008 - 7:59 pm 50. The Fog Of War » The Ethereal Voice:[...] is hard to believe but the Belmont Club is suggesting that Georgia may be giving the Russians a really hard time. Make sure you read the [...]
Aug 9, 2008 - 8:03 pm 51. TCO:My impression is that the Russians were better prepared and are doing a better job than the Georgians. The tunnel is not blown. And the Russians were ready to roll and in fact did roll in the space of a few hours/days and entered combat effectively. The whole thing implies that they were ready to pounce…and that the Georgians did not purposefully plan how to pounce themselves. The Russians will use their speed to push the advantage in Ossetia and that will offset the tunnel problem and once they control the province on land and air, then Georgia can do little. They will have missed their chance. Also Russia does NOT need to go all the way to conquering Georgia. They will just annex south Ossetia.
Aug 9, 2008 - 8:17 pm 52. Elroy Jetson:Having spent the last few hours taking a self-imposed crash course on the region and catching up with the latest reports, there is one aspect of this whole thing I find perplexing- the behavior of George W. Bush. He seems to be enjoying himself (in spite of his argument with Putin), basking in the glow of the Olympic spirit. I wonder if he has an ace up his sleeve?
Aug 9, 2008 - 8:18 pm 53. TCO:This whole thing had to have been telegraphed by Russia. We must have seen it coming. Are the Russians marching towards disaster?
They’ll do some strat bombing and naval activities and mess with the other province in dispute (and de facto independant). But they will play it smart and just do “nose bloodying” without stupid things like trying to take over all of Georgia.
Aug 9, 2008 - 8:19 pm 54. fred:buddy,
It is utterly amazing to read the apologetics across the web discussions about the invasion of Georgia. The permutations of those apologetics do indeed seem to stick to the basic themes you pointed out.
That is how successful the decades of dizinformatzia in the West has been. Actually, it is stunning.
I feel badly for the Georgians. They took a risk in becoming allies of ours. They sent troops to Iraq and they believed in us. That a cost/benefit analysis will fall against them and seal their fate sets a very dangerous precedent. After all, who really is going to trust us to stand by them when they are in the shit?
Putin planned this masterfully. He picked a vulnerable target. He had his agents of propaganda in place. He had seeded Ossetia with the right kind of provocateurs. He waited for the right moment, and he picked a time when our nation is least able to respond appropriately to the crisis. And there is a chance that, if Obama is elected, he will get the best prize of all: the ax falling on the missile defense system. He figured that Bush is pretty much not able to be aggressive, and I think the constant bluffing against Iran’s nuke sites finally convinced the Russians that we were not going to do anything about it. Because politically we couldn’t.
Yes, it was a gamble, but a calculated one. And unless a miracle happens, the sheer brute force of it all seals Georgia’s fate.
Aug 9, 2008 - 8:21 pm 55. Teresita:Doug: Think of what Russia’s place on the World Stage will be if they end up with all the Petro resources of places like Turkmenistan, et al.
It already has the “Petro” resources of Turkmenistan. Russia is the sole re-exporter of Turkmen gas to Europe. But there’s a pipe to China in the works, and if Russia wants to turn off THAT spigot they’ll be waking the sleeping Dragon.
Aug 9, 2008 - 8:26 pm 56. Doug:“I feel badly for the Georgians. They took a risk in becoming allies of ours. They sent troops to Iraq and they believed in us”
Aug 9, 2008 - 8:28 pm 57. Doug:—
They did indeed, and it will be a sad situation if it turns out as we expect.
T,
Aug 9, 2008 - 8:30 pm 58. lc:I was thinking about them taking ownership and developing it far beyond present rates of production.
Hope us pessimists turn out to be wrong.
It certainly seems like the Russians want to “take Vienna” - svolichi.
Aug 9, 2008 - 8:37 pm 59. JamesH:As an American, my sympathies lie with the Georgians but let’s not get carried away. Russia and the US are both great powers, at least in southern Asia. It matters whether we can work with, not work with, or actively oppose each other.
We have higher priority interests in dealing with Iran and our fight in Afghanistan. We can probably deal with Iran militarily regardless of Russia’s position but Russian cooperation in not reviving a pounded Iranian nuclear program would be helpful.
If we are on bad terms with Russia, supplying Afghanistan would be much harder, particularly if Pakistan turns uncooperative. I’m in favor of advice and information being given to the Georgians, but the best advice we can give them is to offer a ceasefire with South Ossetia going independent, then probably into Russia. Abkhazia is too big for the Georgians to digest so it would probably also go independent. That would be win-win for Russia and the US, would cost Georgia face but not something it doesn’t currently have anyway, and would reduce the bloodshed.
IMO the wildcard in all this is Turkey. The BTC pipeline is important to them economically. Russia seems to want to fight this to establish a monopoly on hydrocarbon exports from the former SU. If Turkey helps Georgia, this could be painful for the Russians.
Aug 9, 2008 - 8:37 pm 60. whiskey:GWB won’t do a thing. He’s weak, a lame duck, and couldn’t get Congress to declare in favor of Mom and Apple Pie.
Georgia is done for. It will die, but hardly as hard as Wretchard believes. They’ve been beat, and beat before, repeatedly and know in their hearts they are just not big enough to fight.
After this, likely Ukraine, Belorussia, and Poland. Perhaps other nations in Eastern Europe: Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, etc.
Europe bet the farm that Gary Brecher was correct, that war between industrialized nations was “over” due to the evolving nature of humanity. See also Barack Hussein Obama.
What this does domestically is show the total failure of Obama-messiah public relations against Putin. Let alone Ahmadinejad. Everyone understands WHY Georgia was conquered. They weren’t strong enough to deter Putin and Russia. Lacking Arms, nukes, and men.
The whole international system that Obama touts failed. It failed to stop a Russian attack. It failed to preserve the Georgian state. It failed to keep peace. FORCE, and the overwhelming threat of force, credibly used, is the only thing that keeps peace. Georgia’s alliances with the US, other nations, it’s participation in international peacekeeping efforts, did nothing.
Nor will NATO function. There is no NATO. No armed force in Europe save Russia, and drawn-down US. That’s it. Russia could crush all of Eastern Europe and while it would cost them, what would NATO do? Send a sharply worded letter of regret? Trade Paris for Moscow in nuclear exchanges?
European arms consist of a few border guards and “diversity” programs to insure gay peacekeepers in the Congo and the like. Disarmament has it’s price and we are seeing it now.
But domestically, this is akin to the Soviets rolling into Afghanistan. Ending any semblance of Detente because you can’t deal with them. It kills Carter-Obamaism DEAD.
Also, any effort at alliance building. We won’t lift a finger for Georgia, and other nations at the periphery of China and Russia will simply make deals.
The other outcome of this will be the requirement for the US to remilitarize, with a 800 or more ship Navy, new Aircraft Carrier groups, new strategic bombers (probably unmanned) and far more work on space defense of our satellites, quick launch capacity, and rebuilding the “big Army” and Marines. No more small war insurgencies. That’s dead too. With Russia gambling on it all.
Russia’s play is to help Iran’s nukes along, even giving them a few, and pointing them at the West ala Putin’s “story” quoted by Wretchard to Natan Sharansky. using the chaos and global crash in trade to make moves to simply seize people and nations to extract tribute. It’s not like Russia will make money any other way, and this should be seen in the light of Russia chasing off foreign direct investment like BP and their people to simply take investments.
Aug 9, 2008 - 8:39 pm 61. Doug:You’re right about China:
Aug 9, 2008 - 8:43 pm 62. Big D:With an agreement already signed, (didn’t know that) doubt if Putin would try that.
Those under the “protection” of the West make far easier pickings.
Good point about Turkey’s interest in BTC. But, given their lack of interest in helping us, would that move them enough to support, say, a deployment of F-15s to Incirlik to send a message (or F-22s, but that would be a threat, rather than a message)?
It’s amazing how opaque this war is. Compare this to OIF, where, if you were paying attention (and ignoring a lot of the press blather), you could guess fairly accurately where everybody was on a day-to-day basis.
It seems like the big unknown is Russia’s strategic goals. Are they limited, or are they going for the whole thing? Either way, there will be significant repercussions if we are seen as doing nothing… expect a half dozen nations to Finlandize if we can’t find a way of responding without actually killing Russians.
Aug 9, 2008 - 8:47 pm 63. El Jefe Maximo:No matter what quality edge the Georgians might have…I think the best case outcome for them has to be something like Finland in 1940.
Even “winning” in the sense of kicking the kaka out of what the Russian has so far deployed may actually be counterproductive, in that the Putin regime cannot afford a humiliation, and will simply eat its losses, and move up whatever forces may be needed to overwhelm the Georgians. The Georgians would be well advised to try to disengage, to hide in fortified and mountainous terrain that the Russians will have to pay to take, and reconcile itself to the Ossetians seceding. Probably they will have to abandon the American alliance.
The Russians are not the Americans, public opinion won’t work on them, and the Georgians are not going to be let off the ropes by diplomatic pressure unless Putin wants to allow it.
Aug 9, 2008 - 8:49 pm 64. Rob73:Why would, e.g., Poland “Findlandize” rather than go nuclear? You know, Marie Curie and all. . . .
Aug 9, 2008 - 8:53 pm 65. John Samford:“John Samford,
While I’d love to see Mother Russia get pounded to paste; I don’t see how a country with 10000
nuclear missiles is a “cardboard bear”.”
First, your numbers are a tad off. By treaty, (SALT II, IIRC) it’s 1200.
Second, here the angle on that from a famous military person;
“There is no point in having the capacity if you haven’t got the will to use it.”*
*
_Viscount Montgomery of Alamein
The only ones nutty enough to toss nukes around are those who are willing to die for Allah, or those who know they are going to die no matter what they do and want to take some with them.
No Russian is going to start the Last War over some pissant, wanna be country that would need a major upgrade to reach low tech sh1t hole status. If you want to bone up on the logic behind nuclear war, Kissinger wrote a book on it back in the 50’s that made him famous and got him started on his road to diplomatic superstar status. It’s called “Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy”
The foundation stone of Dr.K’s logic is the concept of ‘rational actors’. IE; that sane people will make sane choices and those choices can be predicted, if not controlled.
MAD was the result of this book. Henry the K wanted more then MAD, he wanted a set of rules for using nuclear weapons, so there would be no mass strikes involving hundreds or thousands of them. Dulles was on his way out then and he wanted nothing to do with it, so there was never any formal treaty written on the use of Nuclear weapons.
Anyway, the development of PGM’s has more or less made large footprint, mass casualty weapons obsolete. Still deadly, but there is not as much profit in killing off your enemy. The profit is in defeating him and taking what he owns including his labor.
War is just robbery on a international scale. Or at least that is the traditional usage of war. America changed that, but only after we did our share of profitable wars.
Not much point in conquering a land consisting of overlapping radioactive craters.
Russia has NO MODERN weapons. They are using at the best late cold war stuff. While weapons are just tools and the important part of a weapons syatem is the guy(s) using it, there is a thing called the technological advantage.
Aug 9, 2008 - 9:03 pm 66. cjm:Any US weapons from the late cold war still in the US inventory are there because they still work as well as any replacement would. Except for the M-16 $ M109, which are there because of politics. The Russians are using 30+ year old weapons because they cannot afford modern ones nor design and build them.
When it comes to modern effective weapons, the Russians don’t have any. Combined with their poor quality troops, I think they are a cardboard bear. Paper dragon (China) is already in use. It matters not how many useless nukes they have.
As a final argument, America will always have a crucial advantage over any dictator. Despotic governments are vulnerable to decapitation strikes. Kill the tyrant and the regime falls. America decapitates itself on a regular schedule. Losing the tyrant de-jour means nothing to the American government.
Nuke DC and we’ll just hold new elections. Nuke Peking or Moscow and those regimes fall and the nations go into anarchy and civil war.
the russians can’t even operate their own oil fields without american technology and knowledge. we can easily diminish their production capacity (which is already dropping now).
all russia can do is provide the political cover here, for actions that squeeze them even more than now. and ultimately, our reactions to russian idiocy will actually be prepping for china.
a nation of drunks, dying and flailing. the media get all wet in the panties over goofs like putin, build them up, and then are surprised when they turn out to be…goofs.
how self-sufficient is russia with regards to food?
Aug 9, 2008 - 9:06 pm 67. buddy larsen:I don’t know what to make of this. i think the linlk came from a comment here, not sure, been all over the web today. But this is hair-raising in the extreme. Note he announced the Georgian move a day before it began. The naval order of battle –is this true? Is this combined fleet described here, on the high seas tonight, and heading for a blockade of Iran? Who is this guy, the blogger –?
Aug 9, 2008 - 9:14 pm 68. trangbang68:John, I’m not saying the Russkies will start flinging ICBM’s over Georgia, but a US heavy bombing campaign on Russian troops in a war they consider over their sphere of influence will certainly gin up the ante. Dr. Kissinger is not the final authority on what dying despotic nations will do when cornered. 1200 verifiable nukes is still scary as hell.” Nuke DC and we’ll hold new elections” is a pretty cavalier statement about the death of a couple million people. I wish I could tell you what options I would prefer, but I still believe Churchill’s analysis that Russia is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma”.
Aug 9, 2008 - 9:40 pm 69. Doug:Steve @ ThreatsWatch.Org RapidRecon Georgia And Russia Collide In South Ossetia
Georgia’s status as a U.S. ally further complicates matters. Approximately 130 American military trainers are presently stationed in the country, and upwards of 1000 Marines and soldiers had billeted at the Vaziani military base in July to train Georgian troops. Meanwhile, a contingent from Georgia is currently serving alongside allied forces in Iraq.
Awash in oil revenues and eager to resume a prominent position on the world stage, Russia has demonstrated a strong inclination in recent years to readmit former Soviet states like Georgia into its sphere of influence. In addition, the region contains significant strategic value to the Russian state. “Strategically, Abkhazia {Georgia’s other breakaway region} is the southern terminus of the Sukhumi Military Road and South Ossetia, the Georgian and Ossetian Military Roads,” explained a Russian military expert. “All are traditional strategically vital Russian (Soviet) ground routes across the High Caucasus Mountains into the Trans-Caucasus Region. Russia will never relinquish them, whatever the cost.”
Assuming a cease-fire cannot be brokered in a timely fashion, the United States would be forced to confront and reconcile a pair of competing strategic interests:
Aug 9, 2008 - 9:40 pm 70. Rob73:the desire to assuage Russian concerns over U.S. encroachment and dampen the simmering tensions between the two nations on the one hand, and the desire to support an ally in a vital geo-strategic region against an unhelpful world actor and former enemy on the other.
And if abandoning Georgia is unacceptable in lieu of that nation’s cooperation with the United States in Iraq, risking the possible military stand-off with Russia is equally so…
BBC is carrying a story saying Georgia has claimed to have pulled back from the separatist part of S. Ossetia completely, with the spin that they fear a crushing Russian blow at “dawn” otherwise.
Aug 9, 2008 - 9:42 pm 71. Travis:(Must be dawn there now.)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7552012.stm
There have also been joint US-Ukrainian (”Sea Breeze”) and US-Georgian exercises both held in July of this year.
Aug 9, 2008 - 9:42 pm 72. Aether:Whiskey,
Russia *may* win a tactical victory and carve up Georgia and possibly even absorb Belloruss, however John Samford is correct that the former Soviets no longer have significant ability to project hard military power, in a meaningful way, outside their immediate periphery.
For Russia to take any actions greater more than absorbing South Ossetia would be a strategic mistake. Fear would be a great motivator for Eastern and Western Europe nations alike… and given the EU nations status as modern industrial economies, you would likely see an astonishing pace of re-militarization by many of the NATO allies.
Also, don’t be fooled by the socialist fecklessness of the European political elite… Old Europe, and France and Britain in particular still retain, many levers of power, including modern and deadly hard power, as well as the logistics tail to be able to project that hard power.
Europe simply needs the political will to utilize there strengths, and too much foolishness on Putin’s part could help shift the political winds enough to help provide that will.
It’s very unlikely that Russia will ever regain the former Soviet Empire in the manner you describe.
Aug 9, 2008 - 9:46 pm 73. Cannoneer No. 4:Feels like we’re all characters in a Tom Clancy novel.
The Free Georgian Brigade in Iraq may yet become heroes. From Cross of Lorraine to Five-Cross.
Maybe they won’t be the only ones on those C-17’s, which will of course be heavily escorted by pretty much everything we can put up. The Air Defense branch of the U. S. Army could cover themselves with glory.
Or everything could go to shit and the end of days is upon us.
Pick your scenario.
Aug 9, 2008 - 9:48 pm 74. Alexis:If Russia seeks to blockade Georgia’s ports, this would be a serious escalation that raises the stakes for both sides.
There are obvious perils in humiliating Russia. Yet, if Russia goes for Georgia’s jugular, Georgia would have no incentive to go light on Russia. Moreover, if Russia seeks in any manner to use this present crisis to diplomatically humiliate the United States, there ought to be consequences.
The level of international material support for Georgia is likely to correspond to the extent Prime Minister Putin escalates the conflict. The more he escalates this war, the more material support should be sent to Georgia.
I am a bit worried about Ukraine’s stance on this issue. Despite (western) Ukraine’s strong desire for independence from Russia, it cannot afford to be anything other than neutral in this dispute. If Ukraine sides too openly with Georgia, it runs the risk of splitting in two, with Russia taking over its eastern half. I wonder if Russia’s pretext for invading Georgia is aimed at the Ukraine.
Aug 9, 2008 - 9:49 pm 75. trangbang68:Buddy Larsen, Where did that come from? That is truly a frightening document.
Aug 9, 2008 - 9:52 pm 76. Dan:One thing that analysis talks about is Russian weaponry a whole lot more sophisticated than cold war trash.This thing is moving quickly toward some kind of conclusion. I hope a lot of the dark scenarios are just speculation.
I’m glad Bush is still on Pennsylvania Avenue and not Little Lord Fauntleroy.
Russia has leverage through their oil exports in 2002 their exports surpassed Saudi Arabia and they jostle for top spot; unlike Saudi Arabia, Russia could halt exports.
Aug 9, 2008 - 9:55 pm 77. wretchard:There’s a lot of disinformation floating around. What do we know for sure? What can we reasonably infer? What don’t we know?
Aug 9, 2008 - 9:57 pm 78. cjm:uhm, that site was interesting, but when you start quoting nostradamus and revelations, you are far away from reality.
Aug 9, 2008 - 10:09 pm 79. Rob73:Well, one important thing we don’t know is what really happened the first day at Tskhinvali. If the Georgians in fact levelled the place and killed a lot of civilians, it’s possible that the Russian bombing campaign is just some sort of revenge or payback. If the Russians/South Ossetians are wildly exagerating, then I think we can infer that the Russians are looking to do long-term harm to Georgia rather than merely to re-establish the Aug. 1 baseline.
Aug 9, 2008 - 10:11 pm 80. buddy larsen:The other main unknown, at least for me, is how the Georgian troops have fared in their clashes with the Russians to date. Here, I do see some signals that the answer is “quite well.”
trangbang, it came thru here, to here, to the url that shocked you as it shocked me.
Aug 9, 2008 - 10:11 pm 81. Dave:Looks to me that Putin eschews overruning Georgia in favor of strangling it. Maybe to capture some income-producing assets intact or maybe just to gratify his nasty bone. Those whose way of warfare is for the purpose of subjugation always like to make their targets squirm before shipping them off to whatever gulag they have in mind.
Fred is absolutely right about the need for missle defense. Were it not for the ability to launch missles at the USA itself (and friendly nations as well) without fear of intercept, crap like this would be easy to handle. We could make mincemeat out of invading forces and that would be All She Wrote. As it is, we have to proceed more
circumspectly.
And it goes without saying that our Manchurian Candidate wishes to perpetuate our vulnerability at the behest of those who would harm us.
Aug 9, 2008 - 10:14 pm 82. cjm:how often does google update their coverage of an area?
Aug 9, 2008 - 10:15 pm 83. TmjUtah:3/7/36
What will Europe do this time?
Aug 9, 2008 - 10:20 pm 84. Dave:Several years ago, I read books by the late Fr Malachi Martin. In “Keys Of This Blood”
he detailed how Pope John Paul II was of the firm opinion that “the end of history” fallacy would come to its own bad end
in and around the Caucasus.
No, this was not scriptural prophesying, it was the considered opinion of a man noted for encyclopedic geo-political knowledge.
Looks like the old mackerel-snapper may have called it right. Keeping it from spreading like things did in 1914 is the best that can be done.
I still believe that Boyd-like use of airpower
Aug 9, 2008 - 10:24 pm 85. Alexis:perhaps coupled with Naval assets on the Black Sea will do the job.
I am wondering if the key prize of the Caucasus War is Turkmenistan. As present, Turkmenistan can export its natural gas through either Russia or Iran. Turkmenistan seems to function as a neutral zone between Russian and Iranian spheres of influence. If Russia can prevent any trans-Caucasus pipeline from exporting Turkmen gas, it may keep western influence out of central Asia.
Any America supply route to Afghanistan that bypasses Russia/Kazakhstan, Iran, and Pakistan would necessarily go through Turkmenistan via the Caucasus. Admittedly, Turkmenistan is a repressive post-Soviet totalitarian state with eerie similarities to North Korea and Libya, a state unlikely to be friendly to American ideas of freedom. Still, with the Caucasus/Turkmen supply route cut off, America’s position in Afghanistan becomes dependent upon Russia, Pakistan, and Iran. Ouch.
Every supply route into Afghanistan appears to be controlled by people whose agendas rarely coincide with American priorities. When thousands more American troops arrive in Afghanistan to fight the Taliban, how should they be supplied?
Aug 9, 2008 - 10:33 pm 86. Doug:Alexis:
Aug 9, 2008 - 10:41 pm 87. LazP:Teresita has a link above showing that Turkmenistan already has a signed agreement with China for a pipeline.
I don’t quite understand the whole situation here. What does Ossetia want to achieve here. Do they want to create a new country with a population of 70000 people or they want to join the Sovietunion, er, Russia? The whole population is about the size of or just slightly more than a typical American suburb!!! What exactly the goal here?
Aug 9, 2008 - 10:51 pm 88. CPT. Charles:My summation:
1.] The initial thrust through the Roki Tunnel was a crap-shoot. By the terrain maps provided, sending an armored column down a narrow valley only works if a.) one has sufficient space to redeploy to line of battle [a standard Soviet action...advance in column (speed), reconfigure to battalions-in-line (max firepower); or b.) your opponents are too busy shitting in their pants to take effective action. Based on reports, the Georgians chose c.) allow your enemies' column to fully enter a preregistered 'kill box' and 'fire for effect'. As to the commander of the 58th getting wacked, that's easy: I was taught...kill anything with more than 2 radio antennas, they're the leaders. Unless things have changed dramatically, an organized Russian attack force is death on treads. A leaderless Russian force is a mob going forward on inertia alone.
As to the tunnel being open or not, that's irrelevant. It's a choke point; if the Georgians have indirect fire weapons within effective range, it's a death trap. In either case the Georgians most likely have the GPS coordinates for the area in question. Without effective Air Defense assets [my No. 2 priority of things to kill...] the tunnel is still a death trap.
2.] The Kodori Gorge. This is a secondary axis of attack. After looking at the Google map, this a second crap shoot. Will it work? Yes if, a.) the Georgians are stretched too thin to effectively block a thrust out of the gorge. b.)The Russians have sufficient air assets to break any defensive line the Georgians put up. Without a.) AND b.), it’s a bigger death trap than the Roki tunnel mouth. I sincerely hope the Georgians have GPS coords on key points of the gorge.
3.] The Black Sea gambit. Purpose: economic isolation. The Georgian navy isn’t much look at, but they do have Exocet and C802 anti-ship missiles at their disposal. The Russians ignore the fact at their peril. Secondary effect: further dispersal of their defensive elements; the Georgian army can’t be everywhere at once. Besides, if the Russians do an amphibious assault, their pretense of ‘defense of Russian nationals’ will be laid bare. Besides, activating that option means 1.] & 2.] above are a total bust.
4.] Strategic bombers and Scuds? If true, this Russia over-playing it’s hand. Bringing that level of weapons systems to bear will change the geopolitical dynamic, considerably.
So then, what can we do? Nothing…that would be a fatal mistake. NATO: don’t make me laugh. With the exception of France, the majority of the major players are prisoners to their pipelines…from the east. The UN? Bwahahahahahaha. You must kidding.
What would I do? 1.] Send Putin a message: cease all military activity, or else. 2.] If that doesn’t work (give it 6-12 hours), send 3 B-2s in the dark of the night. 2 to Kodori Gorge and JDAM the road going to Georgia, 1 to Roki Tunnel and leave a present: 6 GBU-28’s. Two into the tunnel and other 4 onto tunnel mouth. Now for the riskiest part: drop 1 brigade of the 82nd into Georgia athwart the Abkhazia border and double down on Putin. If you have to send a message, you might as well make it unmistakable.
Putin may ambitious, cunning and ruthless, but stupid he ain’t. He’ll stomp on little Georgia ’till the sun comes up, but going toe-to-toe with the US? Like I said, he ain’t stupid. Besides, it’s long past time to send a message to our friends, and our enemies. Might as well be now.
Aug 9, 2008 - 11:14 pm 89. cedarford:Indeed, the decision by the United States and Europe to recognize Kosovo may well have paved the way for Russia’s lightning-fast decision to send troops to back the separatists in South Ossetia. During one meeting on Kosovo in Brussels this year, Mr. Lavrov, the foreign minister, warned Ms. Rice and European diplomats that if they recognized Kosovo, they would be setting a precedent for South Ossetia and other breakaway provinces.
For the Bush administration, the choice now becomes whether backing Georgia — which, more than any other former Soviet republic has allied with the United States — on the South Ossetia issue is worth alienating Russia at a time when getting Russia’s help to rein in Iran’s nuclear ambitions is at the top of the United States’ foreign policy agenda.
One United Nations diplomat joked on Saturday that “if someone went to the Russians and said, ‘OK, Kosovo for Iran,’ we’d have a deal.”
That might be hyperbole, but there is a growing feeling among some officials in the Bush administration that perhaps the United States cannot have it all, and may have to choose its priorities, particularly when it comes to Russia.
The Bush administration’s strong support for Georgia — including the training of Georgia’s military and arms support — came, in part, as a reward for its support of the United States in Iraq. The United States has held Georgia up as a beacon of democracy in the former Soviet Union; it was supposed to be an example to other former Soviet republics of the benefits of tilting to the West.
But that, along with America and Europe’s actions on Kosovo, left Russia feeling threatened, encircled and more convinced that it had to take aggressive measures to restore its power, dignity and influence in a region it considers its strategic back yard, foreign policy experts said.
Russia’s emerging aggressiveness is now also timed with America’s preoccupation with Iraq and Afghanistan, and the looming confrontation with Iran. These counterbalancing considerations mean that Moscow is in the driver’s seat, administration officials acknowledged.
“We’ve placed ourselves in a position that globally we don’t have the wherewithal to do anything,” Mr. Friedman of Stratfor said. “One would think under those circumstances, we’d shut up.”
One senior administration official, when told of that quote, laughed. “Well, maybe we’re learning to shut up now,” he said. He asked that his name not be used because he was not authorized to speak publicly on the issue.
Pretty true. Russia’s loss of status as Serbia’s protector over the invading Muslims in Kosovo still burns them mightily. The US would have likely found the Russians far more cooperative on pipelines, Iran, border disputes, Venezuela arms, and E Europe if we hadn’t disregarded G. H. Bush’s warning to remain away from kicking them when they were temporily weaken and down, to avoid rubbing Russian noses in it. We ignored Bush I’s advice, even Reagan’s desires that we treat Russia with respect and friendship - beginning in the mid-90s, when Republican neocons and some Clintonistas with lips planted on China’s ass - went for every way to screw Russia they could…
Now with the 3rd strongest support of it’s people of any major nation (54%), China is tops at 86% approval…(US only has 18% approval of it’s government policies) - A resurgent, energy-exporting Russia has a the confidence, the money, and firm backing of it’s people to seek little payback for the Origarchs, neocons, and USA Cold War hawks in mind.
Aug 9, 2008 - 11:17 pm 90. NahnCee:Was his command vehicle radiating signals like a lighthouse I wonder?
We’re told that Georgia shot down Russian jets. Where did they get the technology to do that?
Wretchard is stressing intelligence as a major factor in this confrontation, and if I’m reading him correctly he thinks satellite eyes in the sky like we’re using on Al-Queda in Iraq and Afghanistan can be used by Georgia on the Russians. Now, I’m pretty sure that Georgia doesn’t have it’s own satellites, let alone drones and all the rest of the big boy toys that let you pinpoint a commander in his command vehicle to zap him.
So doesn’t that, too, mean that America would be very much aiding and assisting Georgia in their efforts?
We have bunches of big boats steaming in that direction to match up with the big boats the Russians have headed that way.
It seems to me that what we’re looking at is a confrontation of the Russian Bear going toe-to-toe with Uncle Sam with poor little Georgia stuck smack dab in the middle, just like Kruschev and JFK did over Cuba, except this time the proxy is in Russia’s sphere and not ours.
As far as the danger involved in humiliating Russia, they’ve been humiliated so many times before they should be used to it by now, and really really good at it.
I also think this would be a hell of a time for Israel (and/or the Pentagon) to nuke Iran, although it seems a bit of a reach to think that Putin would be any part of a plan put together by Western civilization to save itself.
Aug 9, 2008 - 11:20 pm 91. Lugh Lampfhota:Looks like Russia has been planning for trouble for some time. Special Railroad repair troops upgraded rails in July, Kavkaz-2008 military maneuvers concluded last week on Abkhazi/Russian border and Russian paratroopers deployed at Roki tunnel.
Looks like Ossetia setup Georgia for Russian counterattack including Abkhazia flanking maneuver.
http://jamestown.org/edm/article.php?article_id=2373276
Georgia has withdrawn from Ossetia according to BBC. Georgia has asked for a ceasefire but Russia has not responded. Russian intentions should be clear within the next few hours.
Aug 9, 2008 - 11:25 pm 92. Dave:CPT Charles: Thanks for your analysis.
That bit about dropping the 82nd in causes me to have a severe pucker factor as the mental image is one of spreading and escalation rather than minimizing and containing. Nonetheless, that just might cork the genie but good.
Your description of Roki Tunnel and Kodori Gorge inspire a new name: Dien Bien Putin.
The man really is clever and ruthless in political infighting and the like. But he does not appear astute enough to recognize how things can go wrong for him. Hopefully, that blindness does not extend to picking an all-out fight with the US.
Aug 9, 2008 - 11:40 pm 93. buddy larsen:CPT Charles: brisk, and good.
Aug 9, 2008 - 11:45 pm 94. Doug:Georgia pulls troops out of South Ossetia -
Georgia pulled its troops out of South Georgia this morning 10,000 Russian troops entered the country.
A Georgian interior ministry spokesman, Shota Utiashvili, told Reuters “They have been withdrawn, completely.” Shortly afterwards, a Georgian government statement said that the Russian troops had entered Georgia in two places.
There were also signs that Russia was preparing to open up a second front from Georgia’s other breakaway region of Abkhazia on the Black Sea coast. Georgia accused Moscow of sending troops by sea to Abkhazia and a United Nations peacekeeping official warned that separatist fighters were preparing an imminent attack on Georgia.
Aug 9, 2008 - 11:57 pm 95. Cannoneer No. 4:CPT Charles, roger that.
This is what the 173rd was put at Vicenza to do, but they just came back from Afghanistan and are all on block leave, probably not current on jump status, and probably NMC.
<a href=”http://www.wral.com/news/news_briefs/story/3238578/The 1st Brigade [82nd Airborne] will be the last 82nd Airborne unit to return home since the entire division set off tours in Afghanistan and Iraq in 2007. [Posted: Jul. 20, 2008]
A brigade from the Army’s 101st Airborne Division took over as the country’s quick-reaction force last year, after all four of the 82nd’s 3,500-solider brigades deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan.
The last 82nd unit to serve as the “division-ready brigade” was the 2nd, which was the first unit sent into Iraq last year as part of the surge that added 30,000 troops to the U.S. forces there.
I think we’ve run out of deployable paratroopers.
Aug 10, 2008 - 12:04 am 96. rcm:I have but one simple question. In this day and age of all the high tech at our disposal, where the Hell was the CIA?
Aug 10, 2008 - 12:06 am 97. Cannoneer No. 4:Return of 82nd Airborne continues
Sorry about the html fu above.
Aug 10, 2008 - 12:18 am 98. Cannoneer No. 4:The last time all four brigades of the 82nd Airborne were not deployed overseas was in May 2006. The 3rd Brigade, however, is preparing to deploy to Iraq around November.
Aug 10, 2008 - 12:19 am 99. whiskey:CPT Charles — no, use of strategic bombers and scuds has just the opposite effect.
It provokes surrender among all of Russia’s neighbors. If they’ll do that, with impunity, to Georgia, imagine what they’ll do to say, Poland or the Baltics.
We won’t do squat because most people in America are still wedded to the lunatic notion that if we are just nice to our enemies they’ll cease being our enemies.
Yes it was stupid to provoke Russia over Kosovo, which gained the US nothing other than the ephemeral thanks of the Saudis. Which is worth less than one cent.
But fundamentally, Russia like Iran and Saddam’s Iraq will be in conflict with the West. Russia and those failed states can only survive with their regimes intact with HIGH HIGH HIGH oil prices. Probably $145 a barrel is the minimum required for Putin to pay off his patronage network and survive. Same for Ahmadinejad.
That means, unless the West wants to live in poverty that will attend permanent oil prices at that range or likely higher, we WILL have war of some sort with those nations over what the global price of oil will be.
This war fundamentally is all about the price of oil.
Aug 10, 2008 - 12:20 am 100. buddy larsen:Russian Black Sea Fleet landing troops 40 miles from critical Georgian port city, which is under air bombardment:
Aug 10, 2008 - 12:25 am 101. buddy larsen:”This war fundamentally is all about the price of oil” –well, hell, why don’t we just send our “no blood for oil” Code Pink ladies over to the Kremlin?
Aug 10, 2008 - 12:30 am 102. Cannoneer No. 4:Georgian Forces ‘Regrouping’ after Heavy Overnight Fights
Civil Georgia, Tbilisi / 10 Aug.’08 / 10:30
• Georgian troops holding positions just outside Tskhinvali;
• ‘Tskhinvali totally destroyed’
• Talks underway for humanitarian corridor in Tskhinvali;
Georgian troops are now re-grouping and taking “new positions in immediate proximity to Tskhinvali,” secretary of the Georgian National Security Council, said at 10am local time on August 10.
Late on August 9, the Georgian officials were saying the governmental forces were controlling the breakaway region’s capital Tskhinvali. Speaking at a news briefing this morning Lomaia said all day through on August 9 the Georgian forces were holding Tskhinvali.
He situation changed overnight, when Tskhinvali came under Russia’s heavy bombardment. “As our military commanders are telling us Tskhinvali is actually totally destroyed,” Lomaia said.
He said that overnight on August 10, the Russian Federation has sent “dozens of military hardware, including tanks, artillery systems and tactical missile” to South Ossetia via Roki Tunnel.”
“They have also mobilized forces in Java and all night through they were carrying out air strikes on the positions of the Georgian troops,” Lomaia said.
He said “military aggression of unprecedented scales” was ongoing against Georgia.
Also overnight on August 10 the Russian warplane dropped three bombs on a runaway belonging to the aircraft factory just in the outskirts of the capital Tbilisi. No one was injured.
Lomaia also said that the Russian aircraft carried out strikes in the vicinity of the village of Urta in the Zugdidi district, western Georgia, at the border of breakaway Abkhazia. “Mobile phone transmitter installations were apparently the target of the strike,” he said.
He also said that air strikes were also carried out on the villages of Azhara and Gentsvisi in the Tbilisi-controlled upper Kodori Gorge in breakaway Abkhazia overnight on August 10.
Meanwhile, Temur Iakobashvili, the Georgian state minister for reintegration, said the Georgian officials were in talks with the Russian military and political leadership to organize “a humanitarian corridor so that to give peaceful population there possibility to leave the town.”
Civil Georgia is down more often than not, so I posted the whole thing here.
Aug 10, 2008 - 12:31 am 103. John Samford:“Now, I’m pretty sure that Georgia doesn’t have it’s own satellites, let alone drones and all the rest of the big boy toys that let you pinpoint a commander in his command vehicle to zap him.”
Satt, no. RPV’s yes. There was a vid on youtube a couple of months ago of a mig-29 shooting one down. Taken by the RPV.
Aug 10, 2008 - 12:32 am 104. John Samford:Found it;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6b35gjZ9cc
I’m with CPT Charles.
If the russians get away withthis, it will be much harder to stop them next time. And there will be a next time.
The best time to stop Hitler was in ‘38. Too many voices of reason ( aka cowards).
“You were given the choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor and you will have war.”
Churchill’s remark after Chamberlain returned from signing the Munich pact with Hitler
War is inevitable. Chose Honor, stand by our ally.
Aug 10, 2008 - 12:36 am 105. Pajamas Media » Who’s Winning in Georgia?:[...] Read the entire story here. [...]
Aug 10, 2008 - 1:05 am 106. cjm:it’s imperative that the russian oil fields be made inoperable.
Aug 10, 2008 - 1:33 am 107. Doug:rcm:
Aug 10, 2008 - 2:07 am 108. Doug:One could have known what was up by reading this link OSSETIAN SEPARATISTS ARE PROVOKING A MAJOR RUSSIAN INTERVENTION - Eurasia Daily Monitor at the site Lugh Lampfhota cited.
August 7
OSSETIAN SEPARATISTS ARE PROVOKING A MAJOR RUSSIAN INTERVENTION - Eurasia Daily Monitor
“The strategic political goal is to dissuade NATO from approving a membership action plan (MAP) for Georgia at the alliance’s December 2008 or April 2009 meetings. More immediately, Moscow seeks to derail the North Atlantic Council’s assessment visit to Georgia, scheduled for September, or at least to influence the visit’s assessment about Georgia’s eligibility for a MAP. Since NATO’s “Russia-Firsters” insist that unresolved conflicts disqualify Georgia from a MAP, Russia seeks to demonstrate that those conflicts are indeed unresolved. NATO’s failure to approve a Georgian MAP at the April 2008 summit emboldened Russia to escalate military operations against Georgia.”
—
Putin, Aug 9
“I think that it has become absolutely clear in Georgia, in Russia and in the entire world that the aspirations of the Georgian leadership to join the NATO is dictated not by the willingness to become a part of the global system of international security and make its contribution to strengthening of international peace, but this aspiration is dictated by other reason – by an attempt to involve other countries and other peoples in its bloody adventures”
Putin - Georgia’s S.Ossetia Move Blow to its Statehood
Aug 10, 2008 - 2:33 am 109. wretchard:I think the mask is off. The Russians look to have been planning this for a long time. There are Pearl Harbor aspects to this.
Aug 10, 2008 - 2:34 am 110. rcm:Doug:
Thanks for the link, but my frustration comes from the way the U.S. “looks” with GW playing with the female volleyball and softball teams all the way over in China.
Like Wretchard said, however, we should not be making assumptions about what we don’t know…it just looks like we don’t have a clue. Like the CIA was totally asleep at the switch with the build up that had to be incredibly obvious if they were even paying attention.
The KGB is back up to the “Show” and the CIA is on the disabled list - or so it seems. You know…like Pearl Harbor aspects…
Aug 10, 2008 - 3:06 am 111. wretchard:This is a monumental mistake by Russia, and it will make Afghanistan pale by comparison. If they had stopped with South Ossetia that would be one thing, but the reaction from Eastern Europe shows at least they understand it for what it is now. But we had Ronald Reagan and Thatcher the last time; and now we may have Barack Obama and Gordon Brown. If you watch the video of his recent lap through Europe now it has a different resonance.
Aug 10, 2008 - 3:27 am 112. robotech master:I think depending on the level of force used the euro trash could wake up real quick with some balls and spine… Many of the euros on some of the other boards I post on are really watching this and are scared by it and are for once talking about the EU needing to take a stand vs russia.
Simply put a few 1,000 man pack missiles+mercs+ Remote C4/explosives would bloody russia badly. The conflict between russia and the US would be short… a handful of bombing runs targeting russia’s gas and oil supplies would grind their attacks to a stop real quick. Also any loss of the air over georgia(most of all over the mtn areas) means their screwed as well.
Russia thinks it can win because NATO has been shown to be a complete joke from their view point because of afgan(and their right). However maybe just maybe the euros will wake up and do something which would mean alot.
Put plainly… I’d much rather have a bloody and beaten pissed off russia then a happy russia that has feasted on the blood of victory.
Aug 10, 2008 - 3:36 am 113. Doug:Those Volleyballers are a sight to behold, tho, rcm!
Aug 10, 2008 - 4:08 am 114. lc:Capt Charles:
Aug 10, 2008 - 4:40 am 115. H:Excellent summation, and I like your recommendation. It seems, though, that Americans fighting Russians directly is a threshold which once crossed makes many very scary scenarios (seem) much more likely.
A successful Russian operation (in their view) in Georgia increases Russian influence elsewhere in their “sphere of influence.” They also get to screw more with the touchy worldwide oil-supply situation, and stir up other things you would likely find if you turned over a rotten log.
The volleyballers are a disgrace and an embarrassment. I mean WTF? It isn’t a sport, it was a US TV network marketing gimmick to get guys to watch time-wasting air time between ads. Yet another reason, along with the silly women’s gymnastics, not to watch the Olympics.
Aug 10, 2008 - 5:00 am 116. Jay:How do you folks KNOW that the CIA did not know about the buildup? I read Belmont every day and I have never seen a post from the agency in this blog.
Aug 10, 2008 - 5:17 am 117. Victor:Georgia attacked territory inhabited by ossetins. Ossetins don’t want to leave in georgian state. They declared it point blankly in the early 1990s. After 1992 conflict Russian troops were located there to keep peace and prevent fighting. It was done by UN decision. Russians kept peace there for 16 years.
Now Georgians supplied and encouraged by US suddenly attacked South Ossetia. Georgians announced that there would be no fire from their side just several hours before attack! and then at night started to shell sleeping Ossetian city on the first day of Olympic games!
They wiped out city almost completely, killed 2000 ossetins (mainly civilians in their houses) and forced 34000 to flee to Russia. Mind that the whole population of South Ossetia is just about 70000.
Who is aggressor?
Aug 10, 2008 - 5:34 am 118. WK:“Who is aggressor?” Apparently they don’t teach history to Russians…
Aug 10, 2008 - 5:36 am 119. chuck,:Necessarily a bad thing for the US?
The last time Bush & Putin met, wasn’t it few months ago?, they talked about Ukraine. Putin said, “But It isn’t a nation, George.” Guess that applies to Georgia and the other “lost territories” of the former USSR. We’ll find out pretty soon.
The question I’d like to raise is whether this would be necessarily and inevitably a bad thing for the West. Assuming a Russian Empire Redux could successfully digest all these peoples and lands, would it, like a wise gambler, live happily and quietly content with its winnings, and even become a force of of international prudence and stability? Would such a Russia with the infusion of millions more people be something to give China the chills? Its grudge about the Cold War satisfied, would Russia finally see that its long term interests and those of the USA lined up? Bear in mind, that until 1917 we got along fine with such a Russia.
I know I;m sounding like a groveling appeasing libberul, but gosh all fishooks guys, I;m just tryin’ to think this through….
Aug 10, 2008 - 5:39 am 120. CPT. Charles:Thanks to all [I spent an hour+ condensing my thoughts...wordy is easy, terse is hard].
Ic: I understand the risks, trust me on this one. I’m from a different era, the USSR was the primary foe and we studied hard; for me it was both professional and personal. My father escaped the DDR and I’m a first-generation American. I don’t hate the Russians, far from it…I pity them. By and large they’re fine people [if a little xenophobic...] in a beautiful, rich country with the ill fortune to be usually ruled either by thugs, madmen or fools. There have been bright lights in their past, but they’ve never lasted more than generation, if that long.
That being said, the Russian Federation is now an enemy state and should be treated as such. My off the cuff solution was as minimal as possible, hence the B-2s. The 82nd was to be a line in the sand; alas the Russians are massing unmolested. Unfortunately, too many players are thinking talk will provide a solution; for the current situation talk is worthless. I have, I think, a good sense of the Russia we now face: it is an autocratic, aggressive state with a poorly glued on smiley face. I could go on for a good while with my opinions and analysis…but this isn’t the time, nor the place.
Just know this: the coming decade will be one of challenge and peril. Poor choices will lead to disaster and darkness you can scarce imagine. Through my parents memories, I know how bad things can get; pray you don’t find out.
Aug 10, 2008 - 6:30 am 121. dvd:Russia is a cabal of oligarchs, its military in service not to mother russia but to them that benefits from the recently found and exploited wealth. In soviet days when everything was owned by the state, the economy couldnt get out of bed in the morning, because the generals and internal security services demanded all of the gdp. Now the gdp is distributed to a cabal of oligarchs, the politicians are empty suits in this arrangement, all bought and paid for.
russian military has a conflict of conscious. For now its executing the script demanded of it, i suspect that script could get old very fast, and i am not talking about the staff level, the avg soldiar airmen or seamen are abused terribly by the extortion which permeates downward from the chain of command. this is not the old mother russia, its a cabal manifesting self interest. there are many wild cards in scenarios like those unfolding here.
think about it.
Aug 10, 2008 - 7:02 am 122. what is "occupation":Hit the Russians where it hurts…
their proxies
Time is ripe for page out of the Russian Bear’s own distraction playbook…
1956 Hungry…
Hit Iran Now…
Take out Syria Now…
Hit Hezbollah Now..
Aug 10, 2008 - 7:31 am 123. Sandra M:Part of what persuaded Gorbachev and the Kremlin to play nice with us during Reagan’s presidency was reading Tom Clancy’s RED STORM RISING, in which 1/3 of Russia’s oil is destroyed by Muslim fundamentalists (the novel was written in 1986), after which the Russians begin to lust after Persian Gulf oil (which explains the war in –pathway — Afghanistan). As a distraction, the Russians provoke war with Germany, and the Germans hold on with their fingernails until the Americans with their greatest weapon — capitalism’s unlimited line of supply — arrive.
Clancy demonstrated that a major Soviet weakness is poor logistics. This is a nation that can hardly get its produce to market let alone supply an army in the field.
In CARNAGE AND CULTURE, Victor Davis Hanson tells of the battle of Rorke’s Drift in which a relatively small group of Brits defeat 3,000 Zulus who have just wiped out a much larger group of Brits.
The Zulus had no resupply of water or food and after 3 days just had to leave the field of battle. The story is told in the film ZULU, which marked Michael Caine’s film debut.
Then, there is Kremlin political interference with the military, and the fact that a lightning. surprise attack and quick victory is what the Soviets planned on. Is this what they planned on in real life with respect to Georgia? The Georgians have already beheaded the snake (killed the invading General) If they can hold on for a bit, things could get better for them. If we held training exercises with them in July and if the Georgians in Iraq can be released to come home and fight for their homeland, the now headless Russian military may find it’s bitten off a bit more than they can chew.
The Russians are said to have reacted with “shock and awe” to our initial march on Baghdad and determined to totally overhaul their military education. Was this ever done?
If Jerry Bruckheimer were to make a film of RED STORM RISING, a novel relevant once more, Putin and other Kremlin KGBers might think twice about further provoking the West.
Unlike the 1980’s the Russians are awash in oil, but lack of oil isn’t alone what defeated the Red Army in Clancy’s novel, and making this film would reinforce the public’s awareness of our urgent need for oil independence. In the film, MIDWAY, Nimitz is told that a carrier will require months to be repaired. He gives them days and the job gets done. We should approach oil independence with the same kind of sense of emergency.
Also, George Crile’s novel and the Mike Nichols/Aaron Sorkin film of CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR show how we could help the Georgians and do it without leaving fingerprints, as we did in Afghanistan.
Sending massive troops into Afghanistan (Obama’s idea) doesn’t strike me as a good idea. What won against the Taliban was special forces advisors and the fact that we weren’t seen as invaders. Things stopped going as well in Afghanistan after the “perfumed Pentagon Princes” with their staffs of 100 began arriving in Afghanistan. We need to get Pakistani approval for a bombing run on the 1000 Al Queda training camps in their no man’s land. Would they allow that?
I keep hearing paleo-conservative Patrick Buchanan’s voice buzzing in my ear. I have already heard him say we “shouldn’t needlessly provoke the Russians.” That means we shouldn’t stand up for Eastern Europe — or Israel. Just hunker down into island America.
Aug 10, 2008 - 7:44 am 124. Austin Bay Blog » UPDATED: Russia’s Invasion of South Ossetia: The Kosovo Precedent In Play?:[...] UPDATE: See this. [...]
Aug 10, 2008 - 7:52 am 125. Paul from Hollywood:I’m with CPT Charles and John Samford.
Putin clearly has designs beyond South Ossetia. This is just the first round.
Putin and his KGB friends dream of Empire in the worst way. The KGB wants to bring much more of European territory within its realm, whether by force, extortion, or intimidation.
Putin’s motives may not be fully rational or fully thought out. What kind of rational actor forms a tacit alliance with the nutters in Tehran to help them get nuclear weapons?
Aug 10, 2008 - 8:08 am 126. Aether:what is “occupation” said:
“Hit the Russians where it hurts… their proxies
Time is ripe for page out of the Russian Bear’s own distraction playbook…
1956 Hungry… Hit Iran Now…Take out Syria Now…Hit Hezbollah Now.”
Given the information posted indicating months of logistics buildup and prepositioning of forces by Russia, I’m believing more and more that this was a spoiling attack on Saakisvalli’s? part.
I’m thinking Putin was intending to invade Georgia AFTER the United States and the Allies were fully engaged with Iran, but was preempted by the same tactic on the part of the Western Allies, with the Georgians having little choice but to attempt to forestall the inevitable invasion.
It would be very useful to have the Russians heavily engaged and exposed in their near abroad, at the start of hostilities with Iran
Aug 10, 2008 - 9:09 am 127. fred:That stupid, Jew-hating, foul mick Patrick Buchanan should stick his head in a gas oven and be done with it. His view of history and economics has no future in a civilized world.
Aug 10, 2008 - 9:18 am 128. chuck,:If I understand the theory here: We caused this crisis to keep the Russians busy while we settled with Iran. Sorry. Wish it was true but we’re not bright enough to think that way.
Aug 10, 2008 - 10:01 am 129. Lugh Lampfhota:There will be no American nor Israeli attack on Iran. Embrace the Mahdi bomb.
Quote from “Audacity of Hope”:
“I will stand with the Muslims should the political winds shift in an ugly direction.”
Barack Hussien Obama
Aug 10, 2008 - 10:02 am 130. Aether:Lugh Lampfhota:
“There will be no American nor Israeli attack on Iran.”
Why No attack on Iran ? I don’t buy the line that Bush is politically hamstrung or that the US is militarily overextended.
Bush doesn’t give damn about “Popular” opinion (ie. MSM polls). His eye is on History and he has indicated on numerous occasions that he would not allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons. I’m taking the man at his word, notwithstanding the charges that “Bush Lied”.
Aug 10, 2008 - 10:19 am 131. Lugh Lampfhota:President Bush is a short-timer, heading out the door. Bush will do nothing provocative that could hurt McCain’s chances in November. The Western economies cannot handle an oil price shock as they teeter on the brink of recession. The military has no desire for a confrontation with Iran. Bush’s staff are writing resumes, interviewing for jobs or thinking about retirement. Bush’s time is over.
Iran will have their Mahdi bomb. All Iran has to do is stall for time. The West will talk and fret about their economies while centrifuges spin. The West is unable to muster the will to do what must be done.
Aug 10, 2008 - 10:43 am 132. Aether:And Israel, will they NOT act to preempt a nuclear Iran?
Aug 10, 2008 - 10:47 am 133. rcm:You’re right about the volleyballers, Doug. I’m worried more about that s— eatin’ grin President Bush is sporting.
Jay:
You are right about what the involvement of the CIA may be. We wouldn’t know if they simply ham-handed another one or are playing the Russians with elan and sophistication. Trouble is, we ain’t seen much of the latter in the last 20 years.
But I’m sure they’re all over this. What I don’t know is whom they’re rooting for.
Aug 10, 2008 - 11:09 am 134. lugh lampfhota:Israel doesn’t have the resources to terminate Iran’s nuclear program. Hell, Israel can’t defeat Hezbollah on their border. How is Israel going to deal with a far enemy.
This Israel is not your father’s Israel.
Israel will have to rely on Samson and MAD. If I were an Israeli, I’d be looking for a safer place to live.
Aug 10, 2008 - 11:17 am 135. sfblue:lugh lampfhota: You sound like an Iranian propogandist.
Aug 10, 2008 - 11:29 am 136. Grandfather:You all sound like sick fascists. You focus on war and killing as if it will never arrive at your front door. Your words are like spitting in the air, they will land back on your face.
America should mind its own business. It is the cabal of oligarchs that control America, same as the rest of the world. They have no borders. They laugh at your flags and the medals on your chests. You are the gladiators. Slaves. Your presidents have all been freemasons or skull and bones. Your president now is married to his cousin and you think you’re a normal nation? You can’t even see the hand signals they use on you every day, in every speech, yet you plot for war and killing.
60% of the prison population is black, yet the JeWISH (Ashkenazi) brought the blacks to America. When the real Jews arrive in Israel, the tribe of Judah, there will be no war. Yet, they are the ones filling American prisons.
The problem here is that all of you believe in the concept (human) of 0. There is no 0. Zero allows you to kill and become animals. In the physical reality, there is no 0. You have 9 fingers. Each thumb is .5 of a finger.
Now the bankers have what they want. War. And you will soon be chipped and tagged while you wake up homeless on the continent your forefathers conquered.
NEWS FLASH: War is a racket. Nobody but the power elite wins. They are the bloodlines that don’t care about flags, or sovereignty, or names. Only that they bloodline remains the despots in charge of this world. ALL of you are wrong! Russia, America, Israel, Georgia, Turkey, Iran… All of you. It’s like a game to you. Sick. Mentally damaged humans.
You have reached the crossroads. This planet will soon dismiss us all. World War III is upon us and YOU are the ones, every one of you blogging here. You are the ones at fault, your passive and active support for war instead of uniting behind the cause of peace and love. You knee jerk reactions and fear.
WE are supposed to be the solution. WE are supposed to stand up to our governments and NEVER allow war. But you are all plotting and scheming as if though you’re going to make 200 Million dollars like JP Morgan did on WWI. May God help us all. YOU WERE THE SOLUTION. Soon it will be too late.
I am at peace. I’d rather be killed than kill. My spirit will live on. Yours? No need to comment, I will not return to this site to read it. Good luck with that.
Aug 10, 2008 - 1:19 pm 137. cjm:grandfather, it’s time for your meds. what a ridiculous rant. quick! there! i just saw a jew peeing on your front porch, after him gramps, before he gets away.
$10 says the old hater posts again and again.
Aug 10, 2008 - 1:28 pm 138. sirius_sir:One United Nations diplomat joked… that “if someone went to the Russians and said, ‘OK, Kosovo for Iran,’ we’d have a deal.”
Replace Kosovo with Georgia and update the inference.
As has been discussed, the Russian’s action had to have been in plan for some time and waiting. This could have been tailored anticipating our response to the Iranian threat, and be a way of getting something in exchange for what they stand to lose (in prestige and influence) from a long-anticipated attack on the mullah’s nuclear program that may or may not be imminent. (I would guess action to be implemented after the election, before the end of Bush’s term–especially in the event of an Obama win.)
Maybe Putin figures our plate is too full to effect a meaningful response.
I hope, and so am inclined to agree with the opinion of some others here, that this incursion may wake the newly somnambulent Europeans and provoke much antagonism, if not outright resistance.
Aug 10, 2008 - 2:15 pm 139. fred:cjm,
As demented as the Left is and people like “Grandfather”, it is because of them that the U.S. lacks the political will to tackle the tough problems. People like them make it possible for that long-legged mack daddy, crypto-socialist to be a serious candidate for office.
All the despots of the world salivate over the thought of an Obama victory. Especially when he delivers on his promise to kill missile defense.
Aug 10, 2008 - 5:28 pm 140. Conservativa » Georgia - In-Depth Discussion:[...] Belmont Club is following the Georgia/Russia war. See Who’s Winning Georgia? with a good discussion of logistics, Russian supply lines, etc. and Who’s Winning Georgia [...]
Aug 11, 2008 - 4:42 am 141. Atuhalpa:If the CIA hadn’t deposed Mossadegh and reinstated the shah, which brought about the Islamic revolution in Iran, which in turn was the reason the US backed Saddam Hussein, which in turn caused the Iran-Iraq war, which gave the russians an opening to invade Afghanistan, which in turn caused us to back the mujahedhin, which gave rise to the taliban when we didn’t follow up with economic support after the russians were ousted, we would have a strong democratic ally in Iran today.
But NO! The US and their operatives have to ruin everything that is potentially good, with the excuse that they are bringing freedom and democracy to the world. What a load of crap!
Capitalism thrives on instability, and that will be it’s ultimate downfall.
Aug 11, 2008 - 8:14 am 142. The Russo-Georgian War « Internet Scofflaw:[...] it has additional territorial aims in Georgia. That’s about all that’s clear, though. Richard Ferdandez tries to make sense of things. His bottom line is that it appears Russia is trying to split Georgia [...]
Aug 11, 2008 - 9:03 am 143. Bonzo:Grandfather, I’ll bite. Read this.
Aug 11, 2008 - 11:14 am 144. Drive Time Happy Hour » 08-11-08:[...] Richard Fernandez: Who’s winning in Georgia? [...]
Aug 11, 2008 - 11:15 am 145. nichevo:Atuhalpa, LOL, right? I mean, just check your dates.
Meanwhile, let’s just say Mossadegh was allowed to steal and keep power as you wish. Fine. Then Iran spends thirty years in the Soviet orbit. Then Khomeini comes along and kicks the Russians out. Russians either go Afghanistan on Iran or just nuke it. Probably WWIII right there. Damn those commies and their feeding off instability!
But you were only kidding. Funny, too.
Aug 11, 2008 - 11:51 am 146. Atuhalpa:Nichevo, your whole post is pure speculation. And since you claim my dates are wrong why don’t you straighten them out for me? I do know this: The Iranian people have been pro western democracy for a hell of a long time, and the shah through savak was brutal and oppressive. I still submit that the mess in Iran, Iraq, and Afghanistan is from bungled intervention primarily by the the U.S.
Aug 11, 2008 - 12:39 pm 147. sfblue:Prediction on GWB 5:15 EST News Conference:
Lot’s of blustery and serious condemnation of Russian aggression. Warnings about the dire, serious, long-lasting, etc. consequences for relationships with the international community.
This will be a necessary public relations maneuver to show global leadership, while at the same time taking the opportunity to maximize the spotlight of international scrutiny on Russia’s aggression to lay a foreign policy foundation for legitimacy of a potential NATO intervention should Russia move on another sovereign nation, Ukraine.
Russia’s biggest battle right now is a PR battle, to convince as many as possible that its action was justified to deflect the international political damage. Russia was willing to pay the price of that damage to forestall any encroaching NATO memberships. It has decided to take its chances on dangling it’s big ace card a la Iran and other more minor gestures immediately following this overthrow.
Aug 11, 2008 - 1:11 pm 148. Heading Right! » GEORGIA ON OUR MINDS:[...] The Belmont Club Threats Watch Counterterrorism Blog [...]
Aug 11, 2008 - 2:02 pm 149. Atuhalpa:Well, I checked my dates and you are partially correct. My errors were:1. The soviets had already invaded Afghanistan, but still did so due to the growing instability in the region due to US meddling. 2. We had been backing Saddam Hussein since the February 63 coup against Qasim.
The point is, that any way you want to spin it the problems in that region have been exascerbated dramatically by bungled US covert operations. As I said, even when they bungle things the arms dealers and corporate entities make out well.
Hopefully someday those of you who believe there is some right versus wrong or good versus evil scenario playing out with “god” watching from on high will become conscious enough to see the truth of human existence.
Aug 11, 2008 - 2:20 pm 150. mitchell porter:Atuhalpa, you might want to ask whether the USSR was “meddling” too. Iraq and the USSR signed treaties of friendship and assistance in 1972 and 1973 respectively. There were communist movements in Iraq, Iran, and elsewhere. Just google “KGB” and your country of interest and see what turns up.
Aug 11, 2008 - 11:20 pm 151. Atuhalpa:So that justifies destabilizing and/or supporting coup d’etat in a country that is obviously in the sphere of influence of your ideological rival? Look, until you realize that there really are corporate entities that have allegiance to nothing but power, control, and financial gain, you will buy into this us versus them paradigm.
I don’t belive the full blown conspiracy models that some people subscribe to, but I do know that down through history minor grievances between people have been preyed upon by those willing to purvey death and destruction for profit.
Soviet meddling was wrong also, but two wrongs still don’t make a right.
Read “Resource Wars: The new Landscape of Global Conflict” by Michael T. Klare and you will be better informed as to what is happening in Georgia, Iraq, Iran and anywhere else there are strategic resources.
The events that have been and will be taking place are the reactions of an ignorant, greedy, and most times stupid species that is steeped in a tradition of religious myth. We as a species have not had the foresight to plan for the future and live sustainably, so now we will reap the results of our folly.
Aug 12, 2008 - 7:14 am 152. Guard Bum:What say you we load up the Georgian formation in Iraq with 2ea Javelins and 2ea Stingers per trooper and conduct a few classes in the C17s on the way back to Georgia. 2ea tickets to EPCOT per tank kill and 2ea three day passes to Disney World per plane kill. Its worked pretty well before…
Aug 13, 2008 - 8:59 pm 153. Robert:Today, 08/14/08, there is strong evidence taht your biased (very) article was WRONG. Perhaps you are an “embedded” journalist…….
Aug 14, 2008 - 9:23 pmSorry, comments for this entry are closed at this time.