243 Comments

1. Rob1855:

OK, I’ll state the blindingly obvious.

Interesting they get the VP to do this, when Putin & Bush were shaking hands in Beijing on Friday.

Great coverage, Wretch.

Aug 10, 2008 - 7:35 pm 2. dla:

Darth Cheney is responsible for the introductory saber rattling. That is step one. If the UN security council condemns Putin’s actions, the US will follow with Step two.

Now I don’t think Putin will do a land grab, but I might be wrong. I don’t see what Russia has to gain and I can clearly see what they have to lose. And yes, the US Military can kick their Roosky butts in heart-beat, but we don’t have much to gain from it.

Aug 10, 2008 - 7:52 pm 3. Yosemite Sam:

Rob1855 -
“W” gazed into Putin’s eyes and saw his soul….

Thanks for the SUPERIOR coverage Wretch!!!!

Aug 10, 2008 - 7:53 pm 4. Lifeofthemind:

The UN Security Council is a nullity it has and should have no say over Russian action just as it should have no say over American actions. We need to get a FOB set up and we need to get the Turks present.

Now would be a good tie to propose increasing the size of all the US armed forces by 10% a year for each of the next four years.

Aug 10, 2008 - 7:55 pm 5. cjm:

if the russians are kicked out of enough institutions (WTO, etc) it will eventually damage their economy. they are vulnerable financially.

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:05 pm 6. Teresita:

CJM: if the russians are kicked out of enough institutions (WTO, etc) it will eventually damage their economy. they are vulnerable financially.

McCain wants to start with booting them out of the G8. This was snickered at by the Obama team. But don’t expect the Eurozone to go along with anything, the Russians got ‘em by the short ones. Hydraulic Despotism but with natural gas instead of water.

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:37 pm 7. CPT. Charles:

Hmm…It would appear that Putin has been given his first public warning: get out of Georgia. He would be foolish to ignore it.

In addition, that comment was for NATO as well. Time to fish or cut bait.

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:38 pm 8. Lifeofthemind:

Interesting that the French are delivering the hard warning for Nato but it doesn’t mean anything without a show to go with it. Are the French or Italians or Belgians going to move aircraft in to the region? Are they going to try to force an armored rail train or truck convoy from Turkey to Tblisi? Are they going to put ships in the Black Sea?

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:48 pm 9. sarkis:

wrote this in the am to the previous ossetia thread, may be outdated but here –
Mike Sylwester — an explanation without paranoid beliefs — which explanation?
An explanation that is consistent, to me, with other facts we have seen in the region is that the Russians are continuing their policy of consolidating control over petroleum and natural gas production and delivery. The plans for pipelines (of Azeri oil and Turkmen gas) going through Georgia, not continuing to Russia but going instead via Turkey to Israel (and on to elsewhere) must be stopped, in Russian eyes.
Russian imperialist propaganda is stronger than it has been in years, with press and blogs full of calls to smackdown Ukraine, Baltics (who know what’s up in this conflict and take Georgia’s side) and cut yankees down to size of course. The press is in adulation of the “gutsy moves of Medvedev”.
Meanwhile, Gazprom is getting real close to Libya.
Now the current Cheney’s remarks — who knows what chessgame goes on now, whether Cheney ‘ll make remarks for Georgian and other player consumption but without intent to follow through, and whether Russia is aware of this show, or whether it’s a bluff for russian consumption or what.

Aug 10, 2008 - 9:10 pm 10. Derek:

Georgia is Slovenia, Europe is Sarajevo.

And they know it.

Really, Mr. Bush, we really didn’t mean all those nasty things we said about you. By the way, could you station the 3rd army in Germany? Please.

Derek

Aug 10, 2008 - 9:18 pm 11. elijah:

“According to the agreements, the U.S. would be able to use the Romanian and Bulgarian bases for pre-positioning of equipment, and to send U.S. troops and equipment into war if necessary.”Immediate Response 2006

Aug 10, 2008 - 9:30 pm 12. CPT. Charles:

sarkis: Cheney’s comments were not a bluff. Both sides of this issue know that their ‘world cred’ is on the line. The EU and even the US can swallow Russia re-entering Georgia’s breakaway provinces: that just the Russians being…Russian.

Advancing into Georgian territory is another matter. The nattering of certain commenters aside, Georgia is an ally; if we abandon those who fight along side of us, NO ONE will side with us when it counts. That’s a cold hard fact backed by history; that’s REAL LIFE.

You can do what’s easy or you can do what’s right, you DON’T get to do both. ‘Conflict resolution’ doesn’t work in a darkened alley, naked steel does. If you don’t know that by now, it’s time you learned.

Aug 10, 2008 - 9:40 pm 13. Konyok:

The International Herald Tribune is reporting that the Russians are assaulting Gori.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/08/11/europe/11georgia.php

Aug 10, 2008 - 9:50 pm 14. sarkis:

whoa Cpt. did russia enter into Georgia proper, not just south ossetia? if so i didnt know, i thought they just shelled and bombed over that line a bit.

Aug 10, 2008 - 9:52 pm 15. Elroy Jetson:

I down with the idea that Cheney’s comments were not a bluff. Love him or hate him, he’s the real straight talker. The perfect complement to Bush’s State Department boilerplate statements asking both sides to cease hostilities.
I’m hoping the Georgians are playing a little rope-a-dope here with our assistance.

Aug 10, 2008 - 9:56 pm 16. sarkis:

yumping yimini konyok, i didnt know russians are going to Gori and bombed Tbilisi.
thats a bigger deal. to what extent is turkey and israel involved, do u know?

Aug 10, 2008 - 9:57 pm 17. fred:

I think it’s time for us to send in bombers and the F-22’s from Incirlik in Turkey. I agree with CAPT. Charles: if we do not back up an ally who is under attack, our reputation is shit. Not confronting Putin will only embolden Russia to start making moves elsewhere.

I had heard somewhere that they have also had their nukes on standby to fire at us. Well, it’s time for our sub killing subs to send them down to Davey Jones’ Locker. Stowed permanently.

Aug 10, 2008 - 9:58 pm 18. Alexis:

I’m at least as interested in Sweden’s reaction to events in Georgia, with Foreign Minister Carl Bildt saying, “No state has the right to intervene militarily in the territory of another state simply because there are individuals there with a passport issued by that state or who are nationals of the state. Attempts to apply such a doctrine have plunged Europe into war in the past… And we have reason to remember how Hitler used this very doctrine little more than half a century ago to undermine and attack substantial parts of central Europe.”

According to the Swedish government, the Swedish Foreign Minister said, “I give the full support of the Swedish Government to the OSCE Chairman-in-Office, the Foreign Minister of Finland, in the OSCE’s efforts to bring about talks between the parties.” The Foreign Minister of Finland is none other than Alexander Stubb, who is known for his support for Finnish membership in NATO and his opposition to Finland’s “non-alignment”.

Swedish and Finnish diplomacy will be important in this crisis, not because Sweden and Finland will necessarily be successful but rather because Russian contempt toward them may push them to reorient their foreign policies.

I don’t think America will necessarily need to carry all of the water in terms of supporting Georgian independence.

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:00 pm 19. Lifeofthemind:

Let everyone be clear about this. Russia is not responding to any assault on peace keepers or protecting some minority group. This is a preplanned full scale invasion of a sovereign country. This is the least justified and most bald faced act of aggression since Libya tried to knock over Chad in 1987 for the uranium.

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:01 pm 20. Konyok:

Fidel Castro: “The Autonomous Republic of South Ossetia historically formed part of the Russian Federation.” (per Reuters)
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N10300868.htm

It likes annexation is indeed one of Russia’s goals and they are lining up their cheerleaders.

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:02 pm 21. Konyok:

sarkis,

It appears that there is a Turkish frigate off the coast at Batumi, in Georgian waters.
The Israelis had advisers in Georgia, but it sounds like they are being pulled out.
Russia has singled Turkey, Israel and Ukraine out as supplying the Georgian “criminals” in their aggression.

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:04 pm 22. fred:

LifeoftheMind summed it up succinctly and accurately. Still it is amazing to read the opinions in the blog world and in the MSM: there are a lot of people are bamboozled by the bullshit that is coming from Russia. It’s really quite surreal.

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:04 pm 23. TmjUtah:

Well, that’s pretty clear on Cheney’s part unambiguous.

Flip back a few pages and you will see “aggression” is a pretty well defined word in U.S. diplospeak, especially when directly assigned an owner.

“Russian Aggression”. I should start a pool on which Democrat will go public defending Putin’s actions…

I wonder what Russian satellite and HUMINT is telling their masters right about now…? Wretchard, in an earlier thread you posited that Russia would have to be “incentivised” in order to leave; if that term can cover “not having your expeditionary forces AND their air assets AND your naval assets destroyed” , then that is what is shaping up to happen real, real fast.

It’s necessary to stay in front of the media more than anything else. This cannot be allowed to escalate, and time is the most controllable commodity we have on our side.

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:07 pm 24. Alexis:

I think Russia’s invasion of Georgia makes a war between the United States and Iran more likely, not less likely. If Russia were seeking to prevent such an eventuality, its actions may have backfired.

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:08 pm 25. NahnCee:

Yum. Cheney on the red phone to Russia. THAT should make Vlad twitch just a scootch.

Can any of you warrior-types tell me if it’s likely that American special forces would be inserted, or will it remain satellite intelligence and arms shipments for the time being?

I just can’t help thinking that Russia bit off a way-bigger bite than it could chew. Makes me wonder if things are worse back on the dacha than we think they are, that Russia would be desperate enough to do something this stupid.

Also makes me smile thinking about the acid reflux the Yurps are all probably suffering from right now. It’s August now, but how cold will they be next winter?

And no. They can’t all immigrate here to get away from their big bear next door neighbor.

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:12 pm 26. sarkis:

yea, konyok, russia in UN is demanding as much (+ sign no use of force in Abkhazia as well). question is how far into Georgia this will go (and hence how much pressure there will be on US to respond). Kokoyta (S. Ossetian prez) claims Georgia is preventing Russian nationals from leaving (hostage-like) and is issuing threats “if a hair falls from a Russian head” or smthn like that.
http://www.interfax.ru/news.asp?id=26386
Russian press is also full of descriptions of “volunteers” from North Ossetia straining at the bit to join in, which looks to me like preparing deniability for operations too sensitive for regular army.

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:14 pm 27. Dave:

CPT Charles:

Do keep in mind that Done Been Pooten is really a form of wannabe. He sits atop a kleptocracy and fancies himself as being the BBMFIC. In truth, the kleptocracy runs him, he does not run it.

The kleptocrats have lucked into a period of
heavy cash flow in their direction. Not being anywhere near as astute as some other mobsters have been, they do not know how to use their money to “go legit”. Thus they have found various and sundry ways of squandering what they have gained and are incessantly demanding more and more plunder to be provided them. Done Been Pooten gets to keep his job only so long as he can find means of giving them instant gratification
interpersed with diversion.

This leads to an interesting set of what I call “psycho-capabilities”. This occurs whenever people are physically capable of a variety of courses of action but are psychologically compelled to ignore all but one.

For this reason, Russia today is rather incoherent and reminds me of Imperial Japan
of the 1930s and onward. Their very incoherence was a critical enablement in the tactically successful attack on Pearl Harbor.
They had everybody looking the wrong way.

I rather imagine that current Russian incoherence was also in play over Georgia and also had folks looking the wrong way.

Cheerfully presuming that I have got this one right, the prudent man must consider an irrational Russian response at least somewaht probable no matter what we say or do.

For example, your suggestion to double down with a blocking force would be sure to back any sane person off. But you cannot rule out
Putin taking leave of his sense and attacking that force simply because his REAL concern is with an internal power struggle. I think that effort you propose is worth the risk but as you self-aoointed Two Sarge, I must say that said risk is a bit higher than you think.

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:15 pm 28. fedya:

I really wish to comment about the ground situation but it seems important to set it in a strategic context, so… It seems to be ever more obvious that them Russkies intend to consolidate power in all of historical Abkhazia and Ossettia. They also are going to do it in the most deliberately abusive way possible in order to so humiliate the Georgians that they will accept a puppet regime.

Why? Kosovo, eh. NATO, yes. The pipeline mostly, I’d guess. Russia wants strategic control over Europe and over Central Asian Gas-Oil distribution. Perhaps they are planning to divvy it all up with the Persians if we don’t knock the Persians out of Central Asia for them.

Aside:
How can one explain T. Barnett babbling on and on about his not so stretchy little “Core” theory while simultaneously endorsing a 19th century Great Powers Game view? Has anyone ever made himself appear the dazed academic more pitifully? Sheesh.

I am generally ignorant of things military, but it does seem that our guys, e.g. US-Turkish-Eurowheenie-EasternEuro-BlackSea-Caspian states all share an interest in preventing aforementioned Russian monopoly on oil-gas supply as a matter of existential threat. BUT, until them thar Russkies have clearly proceeded to attack non-Abkhazian/non-Ossettian targets in Georgia, selling the necessity of intervention isn’t possible for any of our guys. Oh, boo.

Which brings us back to earth, specifically a huge valley between two huge mountain ranges, Georgia. Wrtechard must be spot on regarding the key importance of Gori for a quick Russkie “victory”.

For sea access to the West, Georgia depends on primarily on Poti in the middle, Sukhumi in the Abkhazian North (dominated from the East by the Kodori Gorge) and Batumi, recently turned over by the Russkies to Georgia, in the South.

Then there is one rail corridor: it climbs up past Kutasi, the terminus of the Eastern Czarist military road crossing the Greater Caucasus Mntns. That road goes thru Tkibuli and Oni, over the Mamison Pass into North Ossettia. Roughly comparable to Tora-Bora, but worse.

Another 100? miles, after a few mountainous climbs, the rail lines reach Gori after passing South Ossetia. Gori is the terminus of the other Czarist military road which passes through South Ossettia from the Roki tunnel.

Both roads converge in North Ossettia, a huge choke point.

Here’s the thing. South Ossettia is basically all the mountains north of the central, “flatter”, ethnically Georgian parts. If them thar Russkies control the skies, and armored assault against Gori would be painful as hell for them, but possibly unstoppable. But if they DON’T control the skies, well, I would bet on the Georgians being able to bring ‘em to a halt, and hang ‘em up by their… oh, you know.

Come Winter, it’ll be Finland all over again.

OK, you say, the Russkies can choke off Poti and even if NATO member Turkey does keep them away from Batumi, they will control the flatland rail routes (north around the “Lesser” Caucasus Mtns) so what good would Batumi do for Tbilisi?

Good Questions.The South Caucasus Pipeline (Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum) heads from around Tbilisi, up over the “Lesser” Caucasus to Turkey on routes that almost certainly have roads whenever they lack rail, so defensible emergency land routes near and from Turkey are available.

It is my personal hope that this disgusting reversion to 19th Century Czarist Imperialism will not result in terrible suffering for the Georgians. If “we” do provide sufficient anti-aircraft support SOON ENOUGH, the Russkies can be tied down to the Ossettian mountains, perhaps to never get within 20 miles of the rail lines, let alone the pipeline.

Remember this, Georgia lost possibly 30,000 ethnic Georgians murdered by ethnic-Russian Abkhzians. At worst they are accused of killing several thousand Abkahzians in a terribly bitter civil war. I suspect that Vlad “Rootin’-Tootin’ Putin, has badly overstepped out of greed and a gambler’s eye for desperate measures.

In other words, this (yet again) is ours to lose. It is the Georgians to win. Afghanistan, Chechenya… step aside. Make way for the Georgians.

BUY GEORGIAN WINE!

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:17 pm 29. TmjUtah:

Just an observation here:

For the last five years the Georgian army has been involved in killing the Islamists that used to kill Russians wholesale in Chechnya. I’m willing to bet the Georgians (the ones who have rotated through the Sandbox) are probably very nearly as “spun up” as are most American line units.

I personally don’t see a lot of return on inserting SpecOps in this situation. This isn’t insurgency, and it would be better that the world saw advance party/pathfinders from on of the Airborne or even better Infantry divisions popping up in Georgia rather than Teams.

We must tell the world that our friends have been attacked. Then tell the Georgians that America is coming.

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:25 pm 30. Willard:

Oil back to $140 tomorrow I reckon. On the bright side, Putin’s oil grab should buoy the gang still debating the energy bill under headlamp. It will be interesting to see whether Putin’s energy plan has any bearing on the Pelosi/Obama plan. A tire-checker would actually be a handy item in N Georgia about now…

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:32 pm 31. elijah:

CBU-97

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:37 pm 32. sarkis:

good point Willard, hope Repubs play this out. Though I thought the pipeline in particular and Russian energy play in general is more nat gas than oil; anyone know the proportion of the two in play here?
Oh and has anyone seen Ukraine and Sevastopol’ in the news? How’s Russian Black see fleet doing?

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:44 pm 33. fedya:

We can hope the training the Georgians received from us was reciprocal. It is reasonable to suppose the Georgians are unexcelled adepts of small unit Mountain and Winter warfare.

So, yes, insert U.S. Special Operations… as TRAINEES. We do have some heavy lifting ahead in North-West Pakistan, coming up Real Soon Now… who knows, perhaps the Georgians will become the Ghurkas of the 21st Century.

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:51 pm 34. WK:

Right now oil is just up two bucks. The dollar strengthened slightly against the euro.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080811/oil_prices.html

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:52 pm 35. whiskey:

A couple of observations:

1. Cheney IS bluffing. What’s he going to do? Issue more empty threats? Domestic politics, the press, Dems, Liberals, etc. will NOT let the US do ANYTHING. Bush is a lame duck hanging around the Olympics, unable to do a thing. The US cannot even aid the Georgians without Dems pulling the plug.

2. That stupid core-gap theory has been exposed as monumentally idiotic. Instead you have ruthless leaders and nations, and those who are wet noodles. Putin doesn’t care about things Bush does: domestic opposition, the press, the international opinions. This allows him much more freedom of action.

3. Don’t bet that Russians have not also learned from failure, not prepared quite well to crush the Georgians, and have not looked very carefully at US tactics and strategy, with their own nasty surprises.

Georgia will probably fall in a week or so.

Yes of course no one will ally with us — because the US makes empty promises it cannot possibly keep, constrained by domestic politics and media and dems that all want a return to 1994, an endless party with Bono in Berlin, the “end of history” and all that fantasy utopia of unicorns and rainbows.

We can’t even fight in Afghanistan. Heck George Clooney is planning a reverent bio-pic of Hamdan, as a “martyr for civil rights” and Obama plans to use Winnie the Pooh as a guide (I’m not making this up) for foreign relations.

NATO is dead. So is Europe — empty shells dominated by Russia which controls along with Islam what happens there. America will need a great big Navy, global Air Force (likely with unmanned bombers), greatly expanded Marines and Army, and lots more nukes.

Unspoken in this is Russia’s counter-move should America be too noisy. Giving Osama a few nukes. It’s not like we could do anything in response to that. We are not feared. Period. We cannot be with Obama running for President.

And Georgia is proof positive on what dangerous men who deal in violence do when they do not fear consequences. They take. By force.

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:53 pm 36. Lifeofthemind:

For those susceptible to the Kremlin’s agents urging us to ignore trouble in a far away place listen especially to 4:55 to 5:20, <a href=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CAAqfS8lUQ&feature=related.Neville Chamberlain

How horrible, fantastic, incredible it is that we should be digging trenches and trying on gas-masks here because of a quarrel in a far away country between people of whom we know nothing. It seems still more impossible that a quarrel which has already been settled in principle should be the subject of war.
“Prime Minister on the Issues”, The Times, 28 September 1938, p. 10.
Broadcast, 27 September 1938, referring to the Czechoslovakia crisis. fm wikiquote

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:57 pm 37. sarkis:

yea i m with you, whiskey, but why do you think Russians are doing this now, what’s the hurry? Isn’t this playing against Obama’s candidacy for instance? That’s what I am not getting I guess, why now? Unless the pipeline has some time factor here, only major time factor I can think of is Iran’s bomb progress, the need to hit Iran before it enriched and stored away enough uranium is pretty urgent. So is it a stretch to think this is an anti-Israel move essentially, a provocation hoping that Israel will give enough of a response to warrant a hit against it (doesnt look like it will)? I don’t know, gotta go reread the Book of Ezekiel.

Aug 10, 2008 - 11:09 pm 38. Wadeusaf:

“Russia is not responding to any assault on peace keepers or protecting some minority group. This is a preplanned full scale invasion of a sovereign country.”

Yup, However, because of the fuzzy start and inability to review the numerous incursions of Georgian sovereignty, that is not obvious to the world’s press, world’s diplomats, nor to the world’s people. If Russia continues with the aggression beyond the runaways we have no option but to support with all force required to meet and roll back the aggression of the FSU forces and SU wannabe leadership.
This aggression is a means for the new Russian president to “rewrite” economic and political rules. As an organization of democratic republics, NATO needs to assert its rights to defend applicants.

As a matter of self defense we must insist on the withdraw from Georgian soil all of the Russian forces including the “peacekeeping” agitators.

We ought to further insist on a full and public inquiry into all claims of all sides in this affair. And pending the result of such an inquiry the withdraw of all Russian military and diplomatic personnel from the Breakaway Republics and the substitution of a neutral force with plenty of armor and lead to keep the peace in Ossetia.

The English language Russian media outlets, including Russia Now have put on sidebars at various times the small banner that plans for responding to any preemptive nuclear strike are in place.

The Russian’s wish to be treated with respect, yet spit on the others rights. The Russians wish to be included in making decisions, but ignore the requirements of diplomacy. I spit on Putin’s notion of peace, I puke on Medvedev’s idea of economic rules. They have not earned our respect. They have earned our contempt.

Let them show they can act responsibly.

Aug 10, 2008 - 11:10 pm 39. CPT. Charles:

Dave: do not misread Putin. He was a career KGB officer; to better understand him you have to think like him.

How does a ‘police state’ official think? Fear, intimidation, and dominance. You let the unfortunate soul sitting in front of you know that he only exists at your sufferance. Non-compliance brings pain. The ‘Truth’ is less important than a neatly constructed ‘confession’. All of this is unfolding before you, if you’re willing to see it.

Don’t make the mistake of regarding him as a hungry thug; he dreams of a Russia dominant and absolute. He dreams of diminishing all who drove the USSR from it’s high seat on the world stage. At the same time he knows that the demons of…a low birth-rate, alcoholism, AIDS, and a hungry, rising China all await him in the shadows that surround him. He knows and trusts the tools that have served him well in his long career; until those tools fail him, he’ll behave no other way.

I would say more, but it’s bed time for me. Let the new day come and bring what it will.

Aug 10, 2008 - 11:21 pm 40. Willard:

Saddam was also emboldened by reports of US fecklessness and ambivalence (and UN assurances) only to be summarily shocked and awed. The image that keeps popping up for me is that shot of the Russian diplomatic vehicles getting peppered leaving their Baghdad embassy. Whiskey’s point #3 is fair, but we did break an awful lot of freshly delivered Russian gear in Iraq in those initial weeks. Saddam miscalculated (or simply watched CNN), as did Germany, France, Russia and AQ, and for that matter the UN (IAEA, etc.). This, in many ways, is just an iteration of the original miscalculation they all made in Iraq - betting that the US will not come to the party. Russia stayed in Iraq to the bitter end (still there by proxy) partly out of their state of denial and pride - as well described above - but mostly because of the track record left by 19 unenforced UN resolutions. I don’t imagine the West will get to 19 this time (though Iran is getting close).

Aug 10, 2008 - 11:35 pm 41. whiskey:

Why now?

Likely the world oil price and nothing more. Putin depends on a large patronage network — if he can’t pay his thugs, and pay them MORE than anyone else around who could replace him, he’s not going to retain his power. And be dead very quick. Just ask Capone’s rivals how that works.

Putin is sort of a giant-sized Capone.

Also, the West and specifically Bush is weak, and weakness invites attack. Putin probably thinks Obama is a done deal, nothing could stop that from happening. But the biggest thing is getting Oil back above $145 a barrel so he can meet his paydays.

Aug 10, 2008 - 11:38 pm 42. Elroy Jetson:

Whiskey,
Cheney is not bluffing. Do you think Russian troop movements the last 6 months have not been watched from above? The US has yet to play their hand. The Pentagon has wargamed this eight times over. Georgia will hang tough. We will not allow them to bomb them like they did to Chechnya.
The Euros will have to ramp up domestic energy production to counter Russian threats. It’s a win-win for everyone.

Aug 10, 2008 - 11:39 pm 43. Elroy Jetson:

I do think you are onto something Whiskey with the idea that Putin wants to see the price of oil rise again. The bad guys are getting nervous about the recent 20% fall. But if Vlad thinks Obama is a done deal, he is as delusional as The One.

Aug 10, 2008 - 11:46 pm 44. RAH:

Bush is a master poker player. He has the ability to compartmentalize and so he is having fun in China, but I knew that Cheney and Gates were quiet and thinking of a response. Bush public behavior is not a good signal since he plays it so well with his poker behavior,

The obvious method is to put pressure on Turkey since they are a NATO ally and the problems going to come across their border if they don’t. Plus they lose the revenue if Russia gets control of the BZC pipeline.

Cheney is Darth Vader when he says we are going to bomb, he is believed. I suspect that a naval presence outside the Straits of Bosphorus will deliver the message and over flight from Turkey to shut down Russian bombers. But we have to get permission from Turkey first. Cheney will probably need to do that since he has the ability to force countries into agreement. No one else quite has that ability.

I never forgot when he said to Pakistan after 9/11 that if they did not help they were going to regret it and he was implying nukes. Pakistani understood. Either they were an ally or an enemy.

Aug 10, 2008 - 11:59 pm 45. Presbypoet:

Two words: Roki Tunnel. “Soviet” forces are dependent on one easily cut supply line. I wonder if a hot line dispatch told Putin to leave, or three cruise missiles would strike above the tunnel exit. Three weeks to remove the landslide. No supplies or reinforcements. Goodbye to cut off “Soviet” forces. No need for American forces.
Too bad there are no Keldara, & no Kildar. I wonder if this will inspire Ringo to write a new book?

Aug 11, 2008 - 12:20 am 46. Lifeofthemind:

Did people hear about the Chinese essentially kidnapping the Governor of Guam to stop an Australian journalist from interviewing him?

Aug 11, 2008 - 12:46 am 47. whiskey:

Bush and Cheney are a spent force. Anyone betting they’ll act is not following political reality.

There is NO, repeat NO ability politically in the US to do anything but mouth platitudes. Bush would be impeached if he dared do anything in Georgia. Cheney is a marginal figure in his own administration — Gates and Condi run things now. And they’re OK with Russia over-running Georgia.

We are back to post-Mogadishu America. It took a while, but the Hard Left got it’s way and that is reality. It won’t change with McCain, certainly not with Obama, and would not change with a nuking of a city.

Only with THREE US cities lost would that finally change, and then terribly. This is reality. Safe, suburban life and consumerism leads to the fantasy that everything and everywhere and everyone looks like the inhabitants of the Third Street Promenade in Santa Monica or the Grove in West LA. Since that’s the only reality people in charge have ever experienced. Only seeing a city in the US personally nuked and most of your friends/family dead in an ugly death, three times over, will change that.

George III said it took great character to survive indolence, and the US has not had that great character to survive fabulous wealth and peace for generations.

Aug 11, 2008 - 12:51 am 48. a Duoist:

Georgia is part of Russia’s ‘near abroad,’ and 80% of South Ossetia’s population has Russian citizenship. On behalf of all those S.O. Russians, Putin has been telling Georgia, for years!, to ‘behave’ in its domestic relations with the autonomous, break-away, overwhemingly Russian-majority region.

Instead, Georgia strikes into South Ossetia in order to assert its sovereignty, a direct slap at the bear. Are the Georgians mad, or merely suicidal?

There is NO way the US is going to support Georgia against Russia, beyond some jaw-boning, because our relationship with Russia is far too important to jeapordize. Just beyond Georgia lies Iran, and without Russia’s at least passive support there is virtually nothing we can do about Iran.

Georgia has grossly miscalculated U.S. strategic interests; Russian tanks are about to teach them the lesson.

Aug 11, 2008 - 2:11 am 49. DougS:

Hmmm. Price of oil up by less than $1/barrel. Gold up only a touch. Russian stock market down, according to CNBC.

Looks like Vlad isn’t getting the expected rise out of the financial markets….

Aug 11, 2008 - 2:12 am 50. voyeur:

This should really be called the 1st Gazprom war. Its the clique around Putin, not the ’state’, that seeks to control energy supplies. The energy mafia controls the ’state’ and the army. These people are into extortion capitalism; territory, politics etc are just means to that end. So we need to re-define ‘Russia’ as a concept and throw out all the old commie baggage.

The weak point is perhaps Gazprom shares, down 50% since June. But wealthy Russians keep their money in Switzerland these days - wonder why?

Aug 11, 2008 - 2:27 am 51. Towering Barbarian:

Whiskey,

A few comments on your comments…

“Putin doesn’t care about things Bush does: domestic opposition, the press, the international opinions. This allows him much more freedom of action.”

True enough but that’s a bug as well as a feature. The things you cite as contraints are also feedback circuits. Sometimes overly sensitive feedback ciruits but feedback circuits all the same. The isolated mind dies in its own wastes for their lack. This may be one of those occasions. In the absence of feedback ciruits what we laughingly call freedom of action is merely freedom to kill oneself by mischance or by hubris.

“3. Don’t bet that Russians have not also learned from failure, not prepared quite well to crush the Georgians, and have not looked very carefully at US tactics and strategy, with their own nasty surprises.”

A good point and worth emphasizing. That said, don’t bet on them not having learned the wrong lessons from failure, prepared the wrong way and finding their nasty surprises weren’t quite as nasty as they had hoped. That’s the thing about war. Both sides are always confident that they will win and at least one is always tragically wrong! ^o^

“Putin is sort of a giant-sized Capone.”

As long as we’re using Chicago metaphors to describe Putin I would take issue with comparing him to Capone. By your own account Bathhouse John and Hinky Dink would be closer to the sort of person Putin really is.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Coughlin_%28alderman%29

They began by hiring Capone as their henchman’s henchman. They ended by being his stooges and puppets. Perhaps Putin is still more than that. Time alone will tell.

“Bush and Cheney are a spent force. Anyone betting they’ll act is not following political reality.”

Correction! President Bush and Mr. Cheney *will* possible be spent forces in January, 2009. The calendar tells me that this is July of 2008. They can do as they will in this one because Congress has run away from its responsibilities to go on vacation and hop and skip and jump like little children at a certain Democratic Convention. Since a number of them drool from the sides of their mouths as they babble of impeachment no matter what happens it hardly matters if they make that threat yet again. The liberal obsession with political show trials has made all of *their* threats of impeachment a broken reed and there is nothing they can do about it. ^_^
Always remember, the Left are no more than Freedom’s parasites. Their weakness is never the weakness of the West! ^_~

Aug 11, 2008 - 2:27 am 52. RattlerGator:

Man, whiskey, you’ve got that Chicken Little thing down pat!

I take it as a very good sign that President is not spooked (like Whiskey) and Cheney is doing what he needs to do — and that the Georgians don’t appear spooked either.

The Russians have not miscalculated . . . yet. I’m hoping we maintain our steady hand. None of this could have surprised America, none of it. The only thing left now is to play it out, check the Russian advance, and look some idiotic Europeans in the eye and ask them are they awake yet? I think they’ve been awake for months now, if we’ve been paying attention. The ship is turning, but it’s a slow process. But it is turning. And Russia, in fact, has probably done us a big favor by showing folks — once again — what Russia really is.

Aug 11, 2008 - 4:20 am 53. solovyev:

Remember the Soviet gas pipeline in 1982? This is why Reagan wanted that project stopped.

Anyone wonder whether Gazprom lobbyist Schroeder is KGB?

I think the fantasies expressed here of serious US military support for Georgia are very much wishful thinking.

Aug 11, 2008 - 4:32 am 54. Huan:

Bush is not running for re-election. And he doesn’t care about public opinion. Even more so with Cheney.
The fact that they are “lame ducks” makes an aggressive US response more likely, not less.

Aug 11, 2008 - 4:34 am 55. Cannoneer No. 4:

Why Not Ossetian Independence?

Check out the maps.

Aug 11, 2008 - 4:40 am 56. Aether:

Both Whiskey and Vladimer Putin are seriously mis-reading GWB and Dick Cheney AND the capabilities of the US military AND the state of politics in the United States of America.

Aug 11, 2008 - 5:11 am 57. JBean:

RattlerGator said:
“The ship is turning, but it’s a slow process. But it is turning. And Russia, in fact, has probably done us a big favor by showing folks — once again — what Russia really is.”

I wish I could share your optimism. Robert Kagan has an oped in the Washington Post this morning, and the comments (stopped at the first 50 or so)are full of Neocon! Grenada! Iraq! Bush! Saakashvili attacked Russia! etc., etc.

You can’t show folks what Russia really is if they refuse to see.

Aug 11, 2008 - 5:17 am 58. exdem13:

I am with CPT Charles here, and not just because he is my friend, either. This is a finely-timed power grab by Putin. He intends to knock Georgia down a few pegs, damage its primary economic asset (the oil pipeline), reaffirm Russian regional prominence regarding said asset, and also benefit from the resulting hit on Georgian nationalism from the war. Ossetia nationalism is just a Trojan horse for Russian power grabbing and scaring a Europe made of EUnuchs and East Bloc nations barely recovered from half a century of being Soviet provinces. Never mind the jibber-jabber on the news channels, this is the same old Bear, roaring and brandishing its claws, that we’ve known before the illusory Nineties.

Aug 11, 2008 - 5:31 am 59. wsmith:

Expectedly an `analysis’ of conflict conveniently skip over the pulverization of SO capital by Georgians on Thursday. Surely, the deaths of children and women are not as interesting as getting an excuse to dust off one’s Cold War (actually much more ancient than that) intellectual baggage of `imperialistic Russia.’ What always surprises me, is how deeply xenophobia is rooted in our presumably educated classes.

Aug 11, 2008 - 5:32 am 60. kris sargent:

You guys are are some crazy drugs if you think US aggressiveness will be anything but diplomatic in nature. Further, there’s no way in hell that Georgia, or any nation on Russia’s border, gets into NATO now. For those of you who doubt this, I’d like to refer you to the history of mobilization and hair-trigger alliances. Yes, surrounding Russia with NATO tripwires would make the Bear deliberate more before doing this kind of thing. However, if you think that’s a net benefit, when these tripwires are tied to the world’s largest powder keg, you need to stay off the sauce. If Georgia were, right now, a NATO ally, we’d be looking at a catastrophic global war, or, if we chose rationally, an immediate and irreversible loss of power and credibility.

And, since I was the first person in the English language to predict Russia’s strategic objective as “regime change” (here, Trouble in the Caucasus, Aug 9, 2008 - 8:43 am), let me double down by saying Russia has nothing to gain by stopping before Saakashvili’s government is dissolved. Let me repeat: Russia has Nothing To Gain by stopping before Saakashvili’s government is dissolved.

As I said in that thread, we’ve seen this play before, back when it was called “America Goes To Baghdad.”

Aug 11, 2008 - 5:37 am 61. RattlerGator:

I guess I’m the one that has to break this to you, kris sargent, but if Georgia were a full member of NATO Russia would never have dared to do what it is now doing. It would have to had resorted to the whole U.N. dance thing, etc.

Germany, with its veto, gave them a great gift. And they are now trying to exploit that gift. We will see how it goes but if you think America has to land all kinds of troops to effectively screw this Russian drive I think you seriously misunderstand the nature of things as they now exist.

One thing is for certain; we shall soon see. I’m still of the opinion that an informal understanding may have been reached between America and Russia as long as certain other bright lines are not breached.

We.
Shall.
See.

But Iran had better be very nervous right about now.

In the alternative, it may very well be that we knew what the Russians were planning and this was, in fact, a preemptive strike by the Georgians. If it was going to happen anyway, bring it on under your terms. And test the Turks — once again — while you’re at it.

Aug 11, 2008 - 5:52 am 62. kris sargent:

Sorry for the snide tone. Sometimes it’s just hard to believe what gets said, and what gets responded to, on this blog. I should probably be used to it by now, since I’ve been here since 2002, but some of these comments are so over-the-top stupid that a leftist troll would be hard pressed to exaggerate it with parody.

All that said, Russia has made a tremendous strategic error. Once again, as they have done so many times in their imperialist history, the Russians have clarified the geopolitical alternatives, in a way most unhelpful to them. When the dust settles in Georgia, they’ll be looking at a new era of adverse coalitionism and blowback containment. It’s like they bought the Washington Generals, hoping to turn them into a powerhouse franchise.

So forget an ideas of an American military response. Our stock just went up, guys. Big time.

Aug 11, 2008 - 6:05 am 63. kris sargent:

Thanks for “breaking it” to me, RattlerGator. It’s nice to see how much faith you put into Russian rationality and self-restraint.

The point of the “blanque check” alliance — which is what NATO is — is to protect vital interests from aggression by clearly and publicly naming them vital interests. These absolute alliances should never be used in any other way, particularly in the way you advocate, as some kind of electric fence around the most historically expansionist nation on the planet.

The problem with promiscuously extending America’s “blanque check” protection is you flood the market with blank checks. The more blank checks are out there with your signature, the greater the likelihood that one of them is going to be called due. As we saw in the Cold War, there are other, smarter ways to contain Russia, than by signing absolute alliances with all the countries on her periphery.

Aug 11, 2008 - 6:23 am 64. wretchard:

While South Ossetia itself is a backwater, Georgia lives in what is today an interesting neigborhood. The country’s location as a pipeline route from the Caspian and Iran has been frequently described. And it’s not that far from a lot of places in the news. Tbilisi is 200 miles from the Iranian border and 540 air miles from Balad Air Base, just north of Baghdad — about the distance between Manhattan and Columbus, Ohio. Tbilisi is much closer to Mosul than London is to Berlin.

Aug 11, 2008 - 6:36 am 65. exdem13:

BTW kudos to The Belmont Club for having more info, more analysis, and more informed participation than all of the MSM together. Let NBC & CNN kiss Beijing’s feet about the Olympics, the real news of the day is happening here!

Aug 11, 2008 - 6:41 am 66. Doug:

Putin assails US over conflict with Georgia
AP MOSCOW: Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin on Monday harshly criticized the United States for airlifting Georgian troops from Iraq back home.
—
Putin’s comments reflected Russia’s growing irritation with Western condemnation of Russia’s military action against Georgia.

“The scale of their cynicism causes surprise,” Putin said. “It’s the ability to cast white as black and black as white which is surprising, the ability to cast the aggressor as the victim and blame the victims for the consequences.”

Aug 11, 2008 - 6:59 am 67. fred:

I agree with Whiskey that President Bush and the West are weak. For seven years we have had incessant, without let-up Fifth Column, Fourth Estate undermining of the morale of the people, intended as a continuing guerrilla political war. And the President and his people have lost that war. The result is that there is no political will to strike at the Iranian nuclear weapons development facilities. Zero. None. Here and there you may have a citizen who does understand what this has been all about and that citizen will naturally be defiant and want his government to do the right thing. But the rest want that big, Jackass Party Hardy like it’s the Nineties all over again.

Putin has made a calculation that we are weak. And we are. Our military isn’t, but when the civilians don’t support any mission because they’ve succumbed to the steady diet of BDS from the media, it’s over. I see it on a daily basis. This country is in deep trouble because mainly the education system that cranked ‘em out indoctrinated them well.

Aug 11, 2008 - 7:01 am 68. Doug:

The Messenger
—
Kristi said…
two journalists who were with Winston are dead. Giga and Sasha-R.I.P
August 11, 2008 1:23 PM

Aug 11, 2008 - 7:08 am 69. RattlerGator:

fred, one of the disappointing things to me has been the willingness of Republicans to criticize a President who is having to deal with an unprecedented assault while the nation is at war.

That’s not easy to deal with when the Whiskey’s of the world ignore the other side entirely and complains of what you aren’t doing — as if we live in a totalitarian society where the Executive decides all of these matters.

So now President Bush is Angela Merkel???

President Bush has been achieving against the odds during the entirety of his Presidency with experts on the left and right insisting on his stupidity and infidelity. It has been incredible.

I’d say a little faith is in order. The President of Georgia has published a piece in the Wall Street Journal and it sure appears to me that something of a methodical emergency process is being followed.

As I said before, the Russians haven’t miscalculated . . . yet. Those breakaway provinces may be too much of a headache for Georgia anyway. With so many stating so assuredly that Georgia has been baited into a trap, I’m still looking to see if the opposite is true. The desperate Russians may very well be the parties who were baited and have made the historic misstep.

Aug 11, 2008 - 7:14 am 70. Cascajun » Hungry bear?:

[...] really interesting neighborhood. Geoargia shares borders with Russia, Turkey, and Iran. As noted by Richard Fernandez, “Tbilisi is 200 miles from the Iranian border and 540 air miles from Balad Air Base, just [...]

Aug 11, 2008 - 7:24 am 71. ash:

buddy larsen:

“I know it’s easy for me to say, sitting here safe in the USA, but, if George Bush doesn’t do something –even if it fizzles –he’s gonna have a giant wart on his legacy.”

hehehehahahaha

“wart on his legacy”. Don’t you mean warts on the warts already firmly ensconced on his legacy?

The Bush gang’s foreign policy and domestic policy miss-steps over the duration of his reign have left US with virtually no options other then to appease. An economy ravaged and a military overextended R US!!

Lifeofthemind:

“Let everyone be clear about this. Russia is not responding to any assault on peace keepers or protecting some minority group. This is a preplanned full scale invasion of a sovereign country.”

oh gee golly gosh someone violated a Sovereign nation a hypocritical Condi bleats (as echoed by Lifeofthemind). That’s rich coming from US.

Aug 11, 2008 - 7:33 am 72. Trent Telenko:

The Times of London is reporting that the elements of the Georgian brigade from Iraq is now back in Georgia:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4503176.ece

“”Georgia claims to be observing a ceasefire, but today it was rapidly moving battle-hardened troops up to the frontline near South Ossetia.

The first of the Georgian forces withdrawn from Iraq over the weekend have already arrived in Gori, 15 miles from the South Ossetian border, The Times can confirm, and appear to be in no mood for peace.

“We will drink Russian blood,” said Badri, one of the contingent newly arrived from Iraq.”"

What came with them is the real question that will be answered by events outside Gori and the Kodori Gorge opposite Abkhazia.

Aug 11, 2008 - 7:37 am 73. Aether:

I believe that Irregardless of the Bush administrations reaction, there will be important Geo-political and Diplomatic consequences for Russia.

Putin seems to have won a quick tactical victory in conquering S Ossetian and Abkhzia, and *appears* to be on the cusp of acheiving a strategic goal by re-integrating Georgia into the Russian fold, and controlling the Caucussian Oil.

BUT, They will face the following Geo-political fallout:

- The Russians have likely handed John McCain a victory in the US elections.

- Resurgence of the NATO Alliance.
Re-militarization of the NATO allies

- Ful NATO support for Missile Defense Sheild is a go

- Russia has provided the Bush administration with political and diplomatic cover for the upcoming military confrontation with Iran

I don’t belive that Bushes reaction will be to directly confront the Russians, as the US Military has a pretty full plate in Iraq, Afghanistan/Pakistan, and the pending action with Iran, and honestly America is not going to directly confront another Nuclear power without some GREAT provocation.

Aug 11, 2008 - 7:42 am 74. Paul from Hollywood:

From Doug’s comment, it seems Putin has given his answer to Cheney’s threat.

The time to act is now. We must respond forcefully now or our credibility is shot to hell. If we do not act, we will be inviting more Russian misadventures and aggression. Many of our allies, particularly Old Europe, will then cower and capitulate to Putin’s threats. We may be quickly surrounded with Russian compliant states limiting our options and power in ways we can’t now foresee.

The sooner we respond the less damage will be done. It is no comfort for our other threatened Allies like Ukraine, Poland and the Baltics to see Georgians die in the streets while we dally to pursue the diplomatic niceties. Hopefully the pause in the action gives us some time to act.

Whether Bush is strong or weak really will be determined over the course of the next few days. Bush has acted in ways that are both strong and weak. Unfortunately, Bush was strong from 911 to and through the initial phase of the Iraq war. Since, with a few exceptions, he has been weak, far too often capitulating to the State Department , the CIA and other so called Realists.

I just hope W remembers that the situation a President leaves the country in when his terms ends is a huge part of how he is remembered. If he screws this up, it will define his Presidency.

Aug 11, 2008 - 8:01 am 75. Doug:

Gazprom:
“Your fate is in Our Hands“

Aug 11, 2008 - 8:04 am 76. Konyok:

Fedya,

I enjoyed a nice bottle of Saperavi Friday night. Really a wonderful dry red wine with a blackberry tone - even better than a California Zinfandel.
Tonight I shall sample some Khvanchkara.

Aug 11, 2008 - 8:05 am 77. mark_b:

From ars technica:

Georgian government: websites attacked by Russian hackers

“The blog RBNExploit claims to be functioning as an unofficial news branch of the Georgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs”

RBNExploit Blog:
http://rbnexploit.blogspot.com/2008/08/rbn-georgia-cyberwarfare.html

Aug 11, 2008 - 8:07 am 78. Aether:

Whoops! I mistakenly hit the submit button!

To reiterate and clarify:

I believe that Irregardless of the Bush administrations reaction, there will be important Geo-political and Diplomatic Consequences and Repercussions for Russia.

Putin seems to have won a quick tactical victory in conquering S Ossetian and Abkhzia, and *appears* to be on the cusp of acheiving a strategic goal by re-integrating Georgia into the Russian fold, and controlling the Caucussian Oil routes.

BUT, They will face the following Geo-political fallout:

- The Russian government will now be seen by the G7 and democratic allies, in full daylight, for the kleptocracy they truly are.

- The Russians have likely handed John McCain a victory in the upcoming US elections.

- A defeat for Pelosi, with the opening of fields on US continental shelf, Alaskan ANWAR, and just about anywhere else the American wildcatters can stick a pipe in the ground, with a goal of the collapse of oil prices. (Worked against the Soviets)

- more conservative governments coming to power in Euroland. (Britain is due for Elections soon ?)

- Resurgence of the NATO Alliance and Re-militarization of the NATO allies.

- Full NATO support for Missile Defense Sheild.

- Russia has provided the Bush (or McCain) administration with political and diplomatic cover for the upcoming military confrontation with Iran

I don’t believe that Bushes reaction will be to directly confront the Russians, as the US Military has a pretty full plate in Iraq, Afghanistan/Pakistan, and the pending action with Iran, and honestly America is not going to directly confront another Nuclear power without GREAT provocation.

Much like Iraq (and Iran), the likely course of action will likely be to:

- Diplomatically isolate Russia.

- Economic Sanctions, ie. expulsion from the G8.

- Expanded Train & Equip missions to Ukraine, the Stans, etc.

- Insurgency Warfare in Georgia (and other points of pain).

- Increased direct and indirect action against Russia’s proxy’s.

Aug 11, 2008 - 8:09 am 79. kris sargent:

We may be quickly surrounded with Russian compliant states limiting our options and power in ways we can’t now foresee.

That’s what I’m talking about. If you believe this, you are experiencing cortical malfunction.

You can’t really believe it’s best for Bush to get us into a global war to save Saakashvili’s government, can you? I mean, losing the democrats in Georgia is bad, yes. But it’s roses next to what you’re advocating.

If Russia ends up occupying Georgia, there are far better ways to make them pay for it (some well-known acronyms come to mind).

Aug 11, 2008 - 8:16 am 80. kris sargent:

Aether, you and I are in perfect agreement. See my 6:05am.

Aug 11, 2008 - 8:18 am 81. Trent Telenko:

The Russians have cut the road between the port of Poti on the Black Sea and Tblisi at town of Senaki, using forces from Abkhazia.

The Russians have cut the Georgians from resupply by sea.

See below:

——————————————–

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/7554507.stm

Russians advance in west Georgia

Russian troops have entered Georgia from the breakaway region of Abkhazia, as the conflict between the two neighbours appears to be broadening.

Moscow said its troops had reached the town of Senaki to stop Georgia from attacking Russian forces in South Ossetia, another breakaway region.

As the fighting continued in South Ossetia, foreign envoys were pressing for a ceasefire in the conflict.

Each side accuses the other of carrying out atrocities in the region.

Fighting in South Ossetia erupted late last week when Georgia launched an overnight assault on the territory.

Russia, which supports the province’s bid for separation, then bombed targets throughout Georgia and moved troops into the region and into Abkhazia.

On Monday EU envoys were attempting to broker an agreement between Tbilisi and Moscow.

Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili signed an EU-backed ceasefire, but the document was rejected by Moscow.

And leaders from both countries carried on a war of words, with Russia accusing Georgia of genocide, and President Saakashvili hitting back with claims of ethnic cleansing.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/world/europe/7554507.stm

Aug 11, 2008 - 8:24 am 82. buddy larsen:

Ash, there you go again! Never say die, on OIF being an illegal disaster, even though the entire sequence of events has been explained to you over and over and over. It’s like talking to a fence post.

Okay, quickie, check out Iraq’s economic metrics, you know, currency, GDP, new business starts, personal income, employment, you know, the health chart.

Also check the newspapers –a free and independent Iraqi parliament is debating the timeline of how much longer their brand-spanking new constitutional democracy will need American military assistance.

Also, for a change, why not consult an Iraqi –rather than your own flash-frozen political prejudice –on OIF?

Also, refresh yourself on the history (which even tho behind us, still exists)of Iraq and the region and the UN and oil-for-food and some major European governments under Saddam.

Also, after the brush up on the history & the current economics –recall Saddam’s policy on human rights. Yes, that, human rights, Ash, my selectively liberal correspondent.

Also, contrast & compare the west’s geopolitical position re the same little item –oil –that hmm, seems to be animating the military of at least one superpower not friendly to your –Ash’s –interests. Better for you, yes or no, with Russia/Saddam in the heart of the region? Without OIF, any chance that anti-western forces in the region would be undermining the open auction market that USA is trying to keep open, along with the sea lanes, for the free trade that’s now annually lifting a hundred million human beings out of poverty?

But I’m wasting my breath, aren’t I? You’ve got your moral-equivalence story, and you like it, so you’ll stick with it. But tha’s ok –enjoy yourself –we westerners are clearly free to be idiots if we want. For awhile longer, anyway.

Aug 11, 2008 - 8:24 am 83. neolex:

Kris, any outcome of this thing will spread far and wide. If other countries, like Ukraine, Baltics, Polands, etc, begin to see US as incapable or unwilling to protect them from Russia, they will come back into Russian fold, albeit unwillingly. This will be a huge blow to the US. The entire Russian gambit rests on the fall of Georgian govt. The fact of losing of democracy in Georgia itself, is trivial compared with the wider effects of it occuring. You will have various countries like Zimbabwe giving everyone a finger because they would feel protected by Russia more than their opponents would feel protected by US. Georgian loss will really set things off on world stage.

Aug 11, 2008 - 8:32 am 84. Konyok:

AP is reporting that the Russians have captured a Georgian military base near Senaki (42.269N, 42.062E), inside of Georgia proper. On GoogleEarth I see an airbase at 42.24472N, 42.04954E southwest of the city. They also report that the Russians have captured a police station in or near Zugdidi (42.502N, 41.864E).

Meanwhile, the Russian stock market (RSI) dropped an additional 3.4% on Monday, after the 6.25 drop on Friday and on the heels of dramatic plunges after Putin threatened the Mechel mining combine. Currently the RSI stands at a 22 year low.

Aug 11, 2008 - 8:33 am 85. Dan:

Beauty contests and proxy wars have one thing in common:

Appearance is everything.

And we are utterly, utterly failing at the moment.

Aug 11, 2008 - 8:38 am 86. neolex:

Thought this would be useful to put your post in perspective: http://img.lenta.ru/news/2008/08/11/advance/picture.jpg In Russian, the spelling of Senaki is CEHAKII

Aug 11, 2008 - 8:39 am 87. neolex:

@Dan

Couldn’t have said it more succinctly.

Aug 11, 2008 - 8:40 am 88. ash:

Buddy,

While I agree free trade is good on a whole bunch of levels look at how the game is working out. We made a move to seize control of the Oil in ME and we are having a bad time trying to maintain that control (if you don’t like the wording just substitute it with your preferred terminology - put that oil up for sale in the free market). Meanwhile our foes in this grand game are making their moves with some more success. Russia is poised to control the gas pipeline through Georgia further controlling Europe’s comfort and China is moving steadily ahead securing their access meanwhile you sit back bleating about moral supremacy whilst we are powerless to change the situation. This is poor play in grand strategic game. The finer points of Iraqi history are lost on most of the world as we claim justification for violating Iraqi sovereignty similar to our scoffs of derision at Russian claims of a peacekeeping mission in Georgia. What we are witnessing is, if not a collapse of the US financial system (thus rippling around the world) then major stresses with a risk of systemic failure. Free trade is on the wane (as evidenced by the recent failure of the latest negotiations) and more and more oil is moving out of the ‘free market’. Your righteous indignation does little to mitigate the disastrous policies of the current administration. Iraq’s a peachy keen place now is it? We netted out on that did we? riiiiight…

Aug 11, 2008 - 8:41 am 89. Aether:

Typical molotov cocktail throwing from “as*”

Ash:

“The Bush gang’s foreign policy and domestic policy miss-steps over the duration of his reign have left US with virtually no options other then to appease. An economy ravaged and a military overextended R US!!”

The US economy is in no way “Ravaged”. The comment is absolutely silly, wishful thinking, and barely deserves a response.

As to the The United States Military, the Air Force, Navy, Marines and Army have incredible capabilities, and are the strongest, most experienced and most effective military to ever exist, period, and as a commentator had said previously, are “all spun up”.

While, I think it would be a big mistake to underestimate the Russian or even Iranian military (and covert) strengths, it would be a deadly mistake for America’s enemies to underestimate the networked precision firepower of any single US Carrier battlegoup, Air Force Expeditionary Wing, Army Airborne Division, or Marine Expeditionary Force.

It’s been said that even the US Coast Guard is more than a match for many modern navies.

It used to be said that the US could fight and win two regional conflicts, simultaneously. If anything, that capability has grown tremdously, and it’s likely the US could fight and win 3-4 simultaneous regional conflicts.

That said, I beleive that it’s very unlikely that the US will directly confront the Russians, more likely we’ll hoist them by their own petard, just like Bush is doing to the silly, silly American socialists.

Aug 11, 2008 - 8:44 am 90. trangbang68:

Ash,
What’s with the “us” Kemosabe? Aren’t you Canadian? We already know what spineless weasels live north of the border.

Aug 11, 2008 - 8:46 am 91. ash:

Born and bred in the US trangbang68. I do reside north of the border but still an American.

Aug 11, 2008 - 8:52 am 92. neolex:

@Aether

Whatever adjective you think is appropriate for US economy, you can not say it is in good shape. The bigger impact had the housing bubble, rather than Iraq, however high oil prices also played their role and for that we can thank primarily Rumsfeld for how he conducted occupation.

Bush is not doing anything to anyone. It is a miracle that McCain is polling so close to Obama, after everything Bush has done.

As to the American military capabilities, they are clearly have no detterant effect on the conflict in Georgia, given Russia’s actions. As such, it wouldn’t matter if we had a anti-matter bomb or hovercraft, if US is unwilling, unable to use it, who cares how much superior it is. And the fact is that going into Iraq and conducting initial stages of occupation the way they were conducted brought about political inability to use force elsewhere. Hence, we can see the war in Georgia unfold. Had Russia thought US could use its the best #1 army that god gave people on the face of the earth, it would not have gone into Georgia.

Aug 11, 2008 - 8:54 am 93. voyeur:

Whats next?

Kaliningrad ?

Aug 11, 2008 - 8:54 am 94. ash:

aether,

Have you not been following the economic problems currently experienced by the US (and the world)? Are you not aware of the “credit crisis”? You know Bears Stearn, Indymac, and the rotten crap at Freddie and Fannie? The frantic maneuverings of Treasury and The Fed? You are uninformed I guess.

Yep, the US military is strong, the strongest in the world but it isn’t invincible. We are having troubles maintaining the troops levels already. Stop-loss has not been a morale boosting program. Another conflict or simply an escalation of the current ones will require more man power and more capital outlay from US. Not easy to secure either.

Aug 11, 2008 - 8:58 am 95. Huan:

It has never been US capability, economic or military. The US problem is the will to exert itself, as well as to maintain that will.

Aug 11, 2008 - 8:59 am 96. Joe Buzz:

Before any of you get any bright ideas…When Ms. Pelosi said she was “trying to save the planet” in no terms was she implying…. from the Russians.

Aug 11, 2008 - 9:02 am 97. neolex:

Recent Saakashvili statement on Georgian TV (my paraphrase): “Our country is under threat, but foreign involvement cannot save it. This is something we have to do ourselves. No one can do it for us.”

From the look of things, it indicates that US and EU let him know that they will be unable to use any military force to pressure Russia (and diplomatically Russia said F*ck off!), so Georgia is on its own.

Aug 11, 2008 - 9:03 am 98. Dan:

Good photo essay from a Turkish source:

http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/english/home/9634278.asp?gid=244&sz=14572

Aug 11, 2008 - 9:06 am 99. NahnCee:

Disagree that Bush and Cheney are weak. They can do any damned thing they want withOUT Congressional approval for 90 days. If they want to nuke Iran, who’s to stop them? If they want to go toe-to-toe and tank to tank with Putin, are you seriously telling me that Pelosi will be able to call the Pentagon and say, “Stop them!”?

Exactly HOW are they weak, and who in America or elsewhere is going to stop them from implementing whatever they want to do, provided they can scrounge up enough soldiers to do it with? And, as another commenter noted, in this particular instance America doesn’t really need boots on the ground to be a nuisance as long as we have airplanes freed up (we do) and submarines splashing around (also do) and aircraft carriers with nothing else in particular to do. Russia’s got a hundred tanks — big whoop.

As I’ve noted before, Whiskey makes really good comments a lot of the time, but he does have a tendency towards pessimism. And I think because he posts so frequently that has the effect of stampeding the rest of the lemmings over the same cliff. It’s interesting because I don’t see Whiskey’s pessimism as being anti-American but sometimes that’s what it adds up to.

I’m a little stunned that Fred seems to agree with Whiskey, though. That’s unusual and proves that pessimism is catching.

I love the idea of throwing Russia out of the WTO. I think they should be summarily banned from all world organizations and left to flail in the same twilight zone of savagery and barbarism as the Arabs and OPEC inhabit. Give ‘em something to be paranoid about.

Aug 11, 2008 - 9:14 am 100. neolex:

Russian should have never even been considered for the WTO. Bush traded WTO and silence about Chechnya, for Russia’s silence and non-involvement in the Iraq war.

Aug 11, 2008 - 9:19 am 101. neolex:

Btw, Russia is not a WTO member yet.

Aug 11, 2008 - 9:19 am 102. Alexis:

Prime Minister Putin is now accusing the United States of helping Georgia. Moreover, Russia is spreading an Iranian rumor claiming that the United States actually instigated this war by pushing Georgia to invade South Ossetia. Russian remarks on the subject undermine any penalty the United States might accrue by actually sending military supplies to Georgia. It is as if Russia is daring the United States to supply Georgia with arms.

If Germany is generally perceived in Europe to be the party that gave Russia a green light to invade Georgia, this will either have the effect of moderating Germany’s Ostpolitik or causing internal polarization within Europe.

The diplomatic shock waves emanating from the Caucasus quite are interesting.

Aug 11, 2008 - 9:23 am 103. RWE:

“It’s a pity that some of our partners instead of helping are in fact trying to get in the way,” Putin said at a Cabinet meeting. “I mean among other things the United States airlifting Georgia’s military contingent from Iraq effectively into the conflict zone.”

So Putin does not think we should even have taken those troops home. Gimme a break!

Look folks, the Soviets used this ploy before. They never ever invade a place unless it is to protect some poor people who invite them in or to oppose counter- revolutionary forces or some such. Czechoslovakia in 1968 they went into because they said NATO was about to. Afghanistan they claimed the government invited them, and that invite somehow included killing the leader of the country. It’s an old, old playbook and a ploy that everyone knows is fake, but it lets the fellow travelers and useful idiots wink and nod.

So this time there really was a provocation. Georgia really did invade South Ossetia, but we have no real understanding of what was going on before that. One could imagine that the separatist group in that country was making all kinds of threats for some time to provoke the Georgians.

When the news of the missile defense deal in Eastern Europe came out, Wretchard asked me what I thought the Russians would do. I told him the Russian response would be:
1. Somewhere else other than in Eastern Europe.
2. Would not obviously be linked to the missile defense deal in any way.
3. Would be petty. They are a very petty people at their core.

I don’t expect to see Russia take over the whole country. They could not run it worth a damn before and they know it.

I do expect we will be seeing F-16’s with Georgian markings stationed there.

Aug 11, 2008 - 9:23 am 104. Alexis:

I meant to say “are quite interesting”.

Aug 11, 2008 - 9:26 am 105. Dan:

Personally, I would love to see a US “security contingent” airlifted in to “secure” our embassy from “real threats.”

Then just kind of keep the planes comin’ in. With no further comment.

Oh, and make sure the phrase “re-tasking satellites” starts getting tossed around.

Aug 11, 2008 - 9:27 am 106. Dave:

CPT Charles: Am not disagreeing with you.
Nor you with me. We are just looking at the same Putin from slightly different angles.

He is hell-bent on those grandiose dreams and
in denial about those problems. Aware of them, yes, but denies they can stop his conquest.

Those psycho-capabilities are in full play here, it seems to me.

Yes, he was a career KGB officer. Had he been a career GRU officer I would have (a bit)
more confidence in his mental/emotional stability. GRU, charged with countering our capabilities, always had a more realistic view about what the USSR could and could not accomplish. KGB always assumed that the ability to repress domestic population could be expanded at will to wherever they wanted.
another version of the “command economy”.

And he is riding the tiger vis a vis that kleptocracy. That can add a few drops of frozen nitroglycerin to the C4.

Now I gotta get to work. So will check in later.

Aug 11, 2008 - 9:30 am 107. Dan:

Oh, and make sure everyone knows Whiteman AFB is on full alert. Lots of planes taking off and stuff… you know.

Aug 11, 2008 - 9:30 am 108. Aether:

Ash,

I’m invested in the US stock market and am fully aware of the issues the US economy faces, the primary problem being socialist policies of the Democrats, esp. their unwillingness to allow exploitation of significant oil reserves, which will very likely come back to haunt them in November.

I’d personally like to see the semi-Nationalized Indy, Freddy, Fannie, be allowed to go down the tubes, so Mr Market can do his Job properly. That said, to describe the US economy as “Ravaged” is simply Gramiscian propoganda.

Also, I never said that the US Military is invincible, that is a straw man argument.

Bottom line is that the US *could* project significant power into the Causcuses, albeit, not easily, and not without significant risk. The point I was alluding to is that the US military is 1) NOT overstreched, they retain significant expeditionary forces IN RESERVE, and 2) even relatively small units of those forces are more than a match for much larger opponents.

Otherwise the Military is NOT having trouble maintining troop levels, the US Marines and Army are at worst, having slight problems INCREASING troop levels.

Aug 11, 2008 - 9:30 am 109. Eggplant:

I wonder if this Georgia conflict could evolve into a regional war of Russia versus former components of the Soviet Empire? The Ukraine and other ex-Soviet republics have indicated some willingness to help the Georgians against the Russians. Likewise the Turks and the Poles have considerable history in fighting against the Russians. I can easily see the Turks and Poles joining an anti-Russian alliance. It would make a certain amount of sense for the ex-Soviet republics to do this, i.e. we can either all be defeated one at a time or stand up and fight against the Russians as a single block. What worries me is that some of these countries are NATO members. One could counter-argue that NATO like the United Nations is a Cold War relic and past its expiration date. It’s not clear to me that it is in the strategic interests of the United States to be part of an anti-Russian alliance (Would it be desireable for China to be part of an anti-Russian alliance?). It would be a different story if the Russians were acting as a host for a global threat like International Communism or if the Russians were trying to control the world’s energy supply along the lines of what Saddam tried to do with Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, etc. There are nations out there that the United States should feel morally obligated to help in time of war, e.g. Canada, Australia, England, etc. However it is not clear to me that ex-Soviet Republics fall under this category.

Aug 11, 2008 - 9:34 am 110. Tinian:

Arguing about how weak or worn out America’s military is pointless. Ditto for America not being able to lead a NATO military response. At no point during the Cold War did either America or NATO get involved in a direct military confrontation with the Soviet Union. Not over missiles in Cuba, the Berlin wall or the invasion of Afghanistan. So why would any sane person expect that to happen now? There will be painful payback in the form of economic sanctions. Anyone willing to entertain the notion of an all out military reaction by the U.S. or NATO, however, completely lacks historical perspective.

Aug 11, 2008 - 9:35 am 111. Aether:

Huan:

“It has never been US capability, economic or military. The US problem is the will to exert itself, as well as to maintain that will.”

Agreed ! however If (when/already have?) the Russians overreach in this circumstance it is likely that US willpower (Public opinion) will be tremendously reinforced, and more importantly NATO’s willpower will be reinforced.

Dan:

“Oh, and make sure everyone knows Whiteman AFB is on full alert.”

btw, Whiteman AFB in MO is the primary base for the B1 stealth bomber fleet.

Aug 11, 2008 - 9:44 am 112. RAH:

This is 19th century politics. Power politics by Russia using all political/ economic/military forces to gains and control resources. I said from the first day this was about control over Caspian oil and imposing control of the BZC pipeline. Russian tried to bomb the pipeline near Tbilisi 51 times according to news reports. They missed the vent according to BP. Russia wants to be the new OPEC for Europe gas and oil supplier. This makes EU amenable to Russian desires and political goals. They have stopped gas supplies in recent years using economic warfare to get their displeasure across. They did this to Poland I believe when it was first suggested they be a site for our ABM system.

Kurdish/ Turkey PPK with Russian influences damaged a valve in Ezbrium, Turkey on August 6th 2008; the oil flow was shut down from Baku because of this.

Russia just used S. Ossetia as the pretext to attack Georgia but they have been trying to provoke a Georgian response since April 2008. I found it interesting that Russia just completed repairs to the rail to Abkhazia with their Railroad Troops on July 31 and still had the troops there. Russia uses rail to move troops and armor to depots. So Russia had preposition troops in Abhazia and they had the build up in N. Ossetia for weeks of tanks and support.

It takes weeks to get LST and missile boats ready for a mission and they did launch naval vessels from Sevastopol to Georgia. This was no sudden reaction by the Russian but a planned attack.

Two things Russia wants are control of Caspian oil pipelines and humiliation of Georgia for daring to attempt to become member of NATO. They have tried to put their puppet leaders in power in both Ukraine and Georgia and failed in both cases. This is how they plan to get rid of President Saakashvili

If there is no serious response from the U.S. the next will be Ukraine from intimidation or setting up a similar situation with fomenting trouble from minority groups in Ukraine.

Russia has ambitions to gain back their republics and imperial regime. All Russians are on board for these goals. Europe has lapsed in passive mode by having no outside threat for over 50 years with America taking on the security measures. Europe will appease the Russians, they have no will to fight Russia with military force. NATO has degraded to symbolic or soft power as shown by the disgraceful performance of NATO countries in Afghanistan. Weakness on the western nations provoke adventurism by countries that what power or to regain old glory.

America has limited choices since we need Russian cooperation for supplies to get to Afghanistan since the Pakistan routes are gone dangerous due to Pakistan weaknesses.
If we do not get the North West Frontier in Pakistan under control we will lose Afghanistan and Pakistan. We are still tied up in Iraq and were working on Iran next. This screws the plan to reduce Iran’s nuclear technology.

Plus Georgia is hard place to get large amounts of troops and material. We can transit from Romania across the Black Sea but that is subject to interdiction. If we put naval forces through the Straits of Bosphorus into the Black Sea that can be interpreted to a direct threat against Russia and could propel us into a war with Russia with all the risk of a small war getting to be a large war since we could call on NATO to engage at that point. That could scare Russia into a nuclear threat. Do we want that?

This is a delicate position for the US. We have to do something to force Russia back and up the stakes but not too high. I think a naval force outside the Straits and get Turkey to put naval forces in the Black Sea like they have a ship outside the Georgian port of Batumi and the Russians have made no moves to threatening that port.

If we get Turkey’s permission we can do over flights from Incirlik to threaten Russian air cover. This may start a shooting incident but those can usually be smoothed over. But that would allow the Georgians better ability to fight the ground war if we provide CAP over Georgia.

Bush is a master poker player and his public behavior is no signal of what he plans. Cheney gave a serious admonition stating Russian aggression will not condoned. Just short of will not be tolerated which implies military response.

My guess is Cheney and Gates will be talking to Turkey. Turkey does not respect Rice and she is too easily pushed. Watch Turkey’s response in the next week or so if Georgia hangs on that long and Russia does not pullback into the Abkhazia and S Ossetia.

Aug 11, 2008 - 9:44 am 113. neolex:

@Eggplant

What a disturbing line of thought. Do you then, suggest, that Georgia, which sent 2000 troops for US operation in Iraq to help US, be simply abandoned? Not only would this be a coward act, but it also would be against US strategic interest, as this will be the last country that assists US, relying on its support in the future.

Also, for the record, Russia does try to control the world’s energy supply. Hence, its blackmail using energy supplies as bargaining chip, supporting Iran etc, and now trying to get Russian puppet govt in Georgia to control the pipe there as well.

Aug 11, 2008 - 9:45 am 114. Dan:

Aether:

“btw, Whiteman AFB in MO is the primary base for the B1 stealth bomber fleet.”

A fact of which we are both aware, as well as the Russian leadership.

Aug 11, 2008 - 9:46 am 115. RAH:

I just heard that Russians have control of Gori and Georgian defense forces are falling back to Tbilisi. Russia has no intention of stopping until they get the Georgian President. He needs to make arrangements to flee to Turkey. They can defend the route to Tbilisi but then it is time to run.

Aug 11, 2008 - 9:52 am 116. Aether:

Tinian:

“Anyone willing to entertain the notion of an all out military reaction by the U.S. or NATO, however, completely lacks historical perspective.”

I’ve previously posted that it is unlikely for the US to take direct action against a Nuclear armed Russia. More likely actions incude, Economic sanctions, enhanced diplomatic and military alliances againt Russia, Proxy wars, insurgencies, etc.

That said, the US military retains impressive capabilities, in reserve, and with the Logistics be deployed worldwide, which are especially effective against much of Russian tactics and kit.

Apologies, for taking the Ashbait

Aug 11, 2008 - 9:55 am 117. Trent Telenko:

Georgian Army units are falling back on Tblisi after the fall of Gori.

BBC has reported that Senaki, farther west, has also fallen to Russian forces from Abkhazia.

See below:

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking_news_detail.asp?id=2588&icid=4&d_str=20080811

——————————————–

Russian forces occupy Georgian city of Gori
(59 mins ago)
Russian forces have occupied the city of Gori and Georgian forces are fortifying positions near Tbilisi to defend the capital, the secretary of Georgia’s security council, Alexander Lomaia, said.

”Russian forces are occupying Gori. Georgian armed forces received an order to leave Gori and to fortify positions near Mtskheta to defend the capital. This is a total onslaught,” he said.

Mtskheta is a Georgian city 24 kilometers from the capital.

Aug 11, 2008 - 10:07 am 118. neolex:

“(dpa) - A column of Russian tanks backed up by infantry and artillery rolled into the Georgian town of Gori on Monday, signalling a decisive shift by the Kremlin from containment to an all-out offensive.

Georgian troops were seen evacuating positions around the town, the largest metropolis between South Ossetia where the five-day-old war began, and the Georgian capital Tbilisi.

Eyewitnesses described Georgian troops as dispirited and nervous as they left the region ahead of the Russian advance.

The offensive seemingly cancelled a Russian commitment made earlier in the day that the Kremlin has no intention of widening the Ossetia conflict.”

And there you have it. Make of it what you will…

Aug 11, 2008 - 10:09 am 119. ash:

Aether:

“Ash,

I’d personally like to see the semi-Nationalized Indy, Freddy, Fannie, be allowed to go down the tubes, so Mr Market can do his Job properly. That said, to describe the US economy as “Ravaged” is simply Gramiscian propoganda (sic).”

It seems the consensus view, and more importantly, the view of Treasury and The Fed, is that to let them fail would be to seriously risk systemic failure. If this view is correct then it is accurate to say the US economy is indeed ravaged. These bailouts are probably not sufficient to prevent systemic failure. Liquidity is not Capital.

On a side note, you say you are invested in the US stock market, have you tried comparing the value of your holdings taking into account the US dollar decline? I don’t think you would like what you would see.

re: troop levels - Increasing troop levels would be mandatory if a third or fourth conflict were to be engaged in. That is a problem

Aug 11, 2008 - 10:18 am 120. Dan:

So at what point does an all-out assault on a staunch ally become “significant” to the U.S. and worthy of more than a State Department news conference?

Today? Next week? Next year? Never?

The lesson our present allies can take from this is; it might be a good time to re-think your strategic plans in the years to come.

And each hour that goes by is another hour Russia has to strengthen its tactical situation. We are dropping the ball on this BIG time.

Aug 11, 2008 - 10:18 am 121. Konyok:

Georgia sez that Gori has fallen, Russia denies.
Most curious.
Usually the defense delays bad news and the offense plays up its effectiveness.
In any case, it looks like Wretchard’s worst case scenario is unfolding.
It is 9:15 pm in Georgia, the sun set at 8:09 pm.

Aug 11, 2008 - 10:19 am 122. Aether:

Ash,

“On a side note, you say you are invested in the US stock market, have you tried comparing the value of your holdings taking into account the US dollar decline? I don’t think you would like what you would see.”

and how will I feel WHEN the dollar rises ?

Aug 11, 2008 - 10:26 am 123. buddy larsen:

Ash, you do have the luxury of actual current events to spin off your clever mischaracterizations, but let me just respond to your basic thesis ”everything is horrible” by asking, compared to what?

Compared to the time your theories were actually tested?

That would be 1975-80, wouldn’t it? The span between the US Congress cutting off aid to embattled ally South Vietnam and the election of Ronald Reagan? The five years when millions of people went into graveyards from SE Asia to Afghanistan to Africa to Central America, and USA’s unemployment was around double what it is now, with interest rates and inflation three or four times what they are now? When evaporating equity in a contracting economy in a nation about as miserable and demoralized as it has ever been in its history (even more so than in the depression as this time the USSR was on the march to the Persian Gulf) made “Disco Duck” the #1 Top 40 hit ?

Yep, had the Ash party won that 1980 election, you wouldn’t be complaining about the current economy (suffering temporarily from too much easy money but after two decades of solid growth) because instead of breezily launching blue-sky jibes on your computer, you’d be outside digging the supper potatoes. Or izzat potatos.

Aug 11, 2008 - 10:27 am 124. buddy larsen:

might add, Ash, that right or wrong, i’ll never be able to find your brand of chortling glee in my country’s or my country’s friends’ trials & tribulations.

Aug 11, 2008 - 10:35 am 125. Tom Holsinger:

The Bush administration will do nothing. This has been its standard reaction to events since President Bush retired early.

Aug 11, 2008 - 10:37 am 126. Alexis:

While Gori falls to Russian forces, Mauritania’s democratically elected government has fallen to a coup d’etat. It is unclear what this means internationally, but the United States and the European Union have condemned it. The African Union has suspended Mauritania’s membership because of the coup.

Apparently, several parliamentary factions support the coup. There have been demonstrations both for and against it. I know enough about the situation in Mauretania to know that I really don’t know what is going on there. Although it would be nice to know how the fight against al-Qaeda will be affected by recent developments in Nouakchott, it’s possible that nobody knows the real situation, least of all the actual participants.

It looks as though adventurers all over the world will make their moves in the next few months.

Aug 11, 2008 - 10:37 am 127. neolex:

@Konyok,

Not that curious. Russias interest to make things appear less urgent, to minimize the risk of Western intervention (no matter how small), thus saying they are less successful then they actually are. Georgia on the other hand sends a clear signal both, to its citizens, and externally that if something is not done, it will fall.

Aug 11, 2008 - 10:40 am 128. ash:

Buddy, I’m not partisan and I have little interest in defending the Democrats. The seeds of our current economic discomfort were sown in the Clinton years and eagerly cultured by the Bush admin. Yes, we have experienced some solid growth and wonderful employment numbers in our recent past. However we are facing dire problems now and big changes are afoot. A sunny morally superior approach is not sufficient to solve these problems. A little humility might be in order for a start. These problems we face (economic coupled with our waging wars of choice with little success) directly influence how we can respond to current and future events. We are in a weak position and have little choice on the way forward vis a vis the Russian advance in Georgia. Or Iran’s quest to refine uranium. Or Iraq’s dispersion of its oil revenues, or Pakistan’s support of the Taliban. We got our backs to the wall and much of it is a direct consequence of the ill thought moves of the recent past.

Aug 11, 2008 - 10:40 am 129. fedya:

OPINION (Wall Street Journal Online)
The War in Georgia Is a War for the West
By MIKHEIL SAAKASHVILI

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121841306186328421.html?mod=djemEditorialPage

Aug 11, 2008 - 10:41 am 130. neolex:

Mauritania is but a tiny tiny glimpse of what’s to come. If Russia gets its way, stability all over the world will be undermined.

Aug 11, 2008 - 10:41 am 131. Huan:

We cannot let Georgia fall. The cost of action now will be much less than if we do nothing now and have to act later.

Aug 11, 2008 - 10:43 am 132. ash:

no chortles of glee here Buddy - there is rather a profound sadness. I’ve objected to much of what we’ve discussed for a long time now the profound consequences are not glee inspiring.

Mind you, skewering some of the right wing pin heads can be fun, I have a lot of respect for your economic opinions in particular but your righteous America is always right does not garner much respect.

Aug 11, 2008 - 10:50 am 133. rcm:

RWE: I do expect we will be seeing F-16’s with Georgian markings stationed there.

That, if anything, is one of the best reasons for them to continue on.

JFK said he wanted to go to the Moon…”because it was hard.” Depending upon Russia’s goals, occupying Georgia may be deemed less hard if you basically denude the country of Georgians. Let the Turks keep the refugees.

I agree with everyone about what I hope Russia’s intentions are, but I have this “tick” that their actions are less a result of the Olympics (that’s just cover) than the “impending” actions in Iran, and I’m trying to think out of the box for that contingentcy.

On the other hand, and just for discussion purposes…What do we do if they just keep heading toward Azerbaihjan? I know my previous suggestion has been discounted as perhaps a bad case of brainstorming ;), but “What If?”

Azerbaijan is not in NATO…what’s another country to the Bear? Tbilisi is 560 miles from Tehran. Rasht, Azerbaijan is only 150 miles from Tehran. Lots more on station time for air defense assets.

Put this on the back burner for now - I know it’s “unthinkable.” But “untinkable” is pretty much what the Georgians thought last Thursday. Everyone is commenting *now* that their actions were not very well thought out and that Russia could never make such an irrational decision. Let’s hope that is true.

Aug 11, 2008 - 10:53 am 134. buddy larsen:

let’s drop this, Ash –thread is important. ok, i’m too rah rah, and you’re not rah rah enough –ok? draw? I’m done –we’re being rude here. another time.

Aug 11, 2008 - 10:56 am 135. neolex:

Too late. It appears that Russia has completely outsmarted US, and whatever precious time US had was spent by Bush enjoying Olympic Games with Putin, and StateDep officials making anonymous statements that Georgia was partially responsible. Short of direct confrontation b/w US and Russian troops (and likelyhood of that is 0), Georgia will inevitably fall in a few days. There are simply no other levers US can pull, otherwise Russia would have stopped at SO.

Aug 11, 2008 - 10:57 am 136. Molon Labe:

These complaints about abandoning an ally, etc. What would you have us do? Doesn’t the prospect of a shooting war with Russia demand a moment’s reflection?

Aug 11, 2008 - 11:11 am 137. oMan:

Assuming the Russian force is armor-heavy it will suck fuel. Where is the resupply? Via Roki Tunnel and mountain passes in Abkhazia? What would happen if, say, those were closed by a few errant cruise missiles (as one commenter has already suggested)? The Russian force then depends on aerial resupply? Wouldn’t a few shipments of Stingers tend to make that a spectacular one-way run? After which the Russian armor is most useful as war monuments in the Tbilisi city square.

This could turn out reasonably well if we keep our nerve and take our time. Meanwhile the cameras should roll, recording the Russian “peacekeeping force” as it shells and bombs “military installations” like apartment blocks full of women and children. Putin has a lot to answer for, but I suspect his kleptocrat pals won’t let him live to face trial.

Aug 11, 2008 - 11:16 am 138. Roy Lofquist:

The US could shut down the Russians in Georgia in about three hours. It’s not very far from Incirlik to Georgia. I know. I made that flight once. It was a mistake. Almost got us splashed.

One AWACS, two KC-135’s, four Wild Weasels, four F-22’s, some F-16’s and F-15’s. Russian tanks and vehicles all gone. A GBU-28 takes out the tunnel.

They’re sitting on the ramp right now. With no armor and no supplies the Georgians can do the mop-up quite handily.

Aug 11, 2008 - 11:18 am 139. Don:

Gee, I wonder if the Georgians regret listening to the nice Americans and sending the Nukes back to Russia after the USSR fell apart? Sure did them a lot of good to snuggle up to us didn’t it?

NATO is nearly dead. The missile shield is stone cold dead. Of course it’ll take a few months to a couple years for the de facto to become de jure but it’s gone. The Ukraine, the Stans are going under the Russian boot next, and eventually the Baltics.

Looks like we’ve got the Republican answer to Jimmy Carter.

Aug 11, 2008 - 11:24 am 140. RAH:

Small country and the Russian have the advantage. Georgians troops have to defend Tbilisi and there is a choke point near Gori a ridge and the river crossing. After that the government of Georgia will have to flee to Turkey. The President would be shot by the Russians since they blame him personally for starting this.

Unless Georgians troops start making this very costly and the rest of the citizens get mobilized, Georgia can not hold off the Russians long enough to allow any help from Turkey and anyone.

Evacuation of Tbilisi needs to be planned and I suppose they can run to Armenia or Turkey or into the mountains in the south. Too many people seem to want to cry and do not understand that freedom is not free. A population of 4.5 million should have enough males available to mobilized but only have 22 thousand in uniform.

Aug 11, 2008 - 11:25 am 141. neolex:

1) Announce of deployment of 2 CSGs that are currently heading into Iran into the Black Sea region (if possible, as a joint force with Turkey) for “peacemaking purposes” or “humanitarian relief”. Mirror Russian language exactly.

2) Give ultimatum, then freeze Russian Stabilization fund, which currently is invested into various US companies and hedge funds, and amounts to $100 billion, for the duration of the conflict.

3) Hint that Sochi might not be a safe place to conduct 2014 olympics, given troubles in the region, that US does not feel comfortable sending its athletes there, and that USOC will petition IOC for reconsideration of selection of Sochi (which is located, few hundred miles from Georgia).

4) Once US forces are in the theater begin overflights of Georgian airspace, claiming “ensuring peace and security for US citizens conducting a humanitarian operation” Simultaneously, deploy mobile hospitals and humanitarian supplies, no ground troops necessary.

It wouldn’t even reach 4, and Russia would stop in its tracks and start negotiations about future status of SO and Abhazia, trying to keep as much of it as possible. No military confrontation necessary. Had it reached for, Russia would never engage US, as its military, despite all Putin’s bravado, is still shit, given that S200 shot down 10-20 (varied figures) of their planes in 4 days.

Alas, the time and will to do all this was lost, and now its too late.

Aug 11, 2008 - 11:27 am 142. fred:

boston.com is reporting that the Russians have taken Gori, effectively splitting the country. This is pretty much finished, and now it’s a matter of mopping up.

Shame on my country and on its government. Shame on the West and the American people for lacking the resolve to stand up to Putin. There are going to be incredibly bad ramifications of this.

http://www.boston.com/news/world/europe/articles/2008/08/11/swarms_of_russian_jets_bomb_georgian_targets/

Aug 11, 2008 - 11:28 am 143. cman:

Why not a lend lease of Patriot air defense missiles and Javelin anti-tank missiles ? seems like that would help level out the battlefield.

Aug 11, 2008 - 11:31 am 144. Eggplant:

Neolex said:

“Do you then, suggest, that Georgia, which sent 2000 troops for US operation in Iraq to help US, be simply abandoned? Not only would this be a coward act, but it also would be against US strategic interest, as this will be the last country that assists US, relying on its support in the future.”

War is a crap shoot. The ancients always depicted Victory (Nike) as having wings because they never knew which way she would fly. Strategic decisions made by the United States should be based upon victory’s probable benefit versus defeat’s probable penalty. Given that Russia has over a thousand nuclear warheads pointed at the United States and Georgia has almost no economic connection with the US does it make sense to get involved in this war?

Neolex mentioned the word “coward”. A coward avoids war when it is in his best interests to fight the war. After 9/11, the United States opted to attack Afghanistan and Iraq because it was in our strategic interest to do so. The moonbats revealed themselves as abject cowards because they opposed the war against Islamic fascism even though it was in our best interests.

Along these lines, I should point out that it is in the strategic interests of the Ukraine, Poland and Turkey to help the Georgians defend themselves against the Russians. Why are there no Ukrainian soldiers helping the Georgians on the ground? What is the Turkish Airforce doing for Georgian air superiority? What’s the Polish Navy doing to protect against Russian ships? AFTER the Ukraine, Poland and Turkey get involved THEN maybe the U.S. should stick its nose in.

Aug 11, 2008 - 11:31 am 145. neolex:

@Eggplant

You clearly have no idea about the geopolitics of the region and capabilities of those countries. Each of them would be risking their very existance, while US is unwilling to risk even a half-decent signal to Moscow. US has offered Georgia support, thus making it leave Russian sphere of influence, now when the push came to shove, that support is nowhere to be seen. Even Ukraine did more by saying they would not allow Russian ships back in. Have you considered what this will do to every single country that considers any kind of alliance with US from now on? And you believe that it is in US interest? That is a truly misguided view. With that way of thinking, US should never assisted Europe in WWII, or blockaded Japan, thus effectively joining it.

Aug 11, 2008 - 11:47 am 146. neolex:

One more thing,

The biggest difference between Americans and Europeans is that Americans dont believe no one and Europeans believe in nothing. You display the latter way of thinking, the way of thinking that brought about 2 European world wars, Holocaust, and many other humanitarian crises all over the world.

Aug 11, 2008 - 11:50 am 147. Lugh Lampfhota:

Goodbye Georgia. Another light dims and goes dark in the world. Just shameful for the West.

Aug 11, 2008 - 11:51 am 148. neolex:

The biggest difference between Americans and Europeans is that Americans believe no one and Europeans believe in nothing.* bad spelling

Aug 11, 2008 - 11:51 am 149. cjm:

read the history of the 7th Cavalry before squawking about rushing troops in anywhere. the u.s. response should almost never be rushed; that’s a russian specialty and look where it gets them.

simply put, our reputation doesn’t demand we play tit for tat with russia or any other power. the smart play for us, is the one that best advances American interests. by staying at the olympics, bush is in effect saying “just putin crapping in the sandbox again, nothing worth getting worked up over”. i.e. russia isn’t important and i have better things to do than talk about their latest mis-adventure.

Aug 11, 2008 - 11:54 am 150. neolex:

@cjm

By saying that US response should almost never be rushed, you are therefore saying that there are almost never situations where decision has to be made in circumstances when time is the most important factor. Knee-jerk reaction, btw, is a survival reflex.

And what about the history of 7th Cavalry? if you want to make a point either, make sure its a common reference, or at least explain it.

Aug 11, 2008 - 12:07 pm 151. sfblue:

Goodnight Georgia.

Aug 11, 2008 - 12:07 pm 152. buddy larsen:

5:15 EST Bush will make statement from WH on the war — just announced.

Also, Iran has asked for parley on nuke program.

Aug 11, 2008 - 12:11 pm 153. Michael Hoskins:

As usual the BC is great. However, I beleive it is too early to comment too forcefully, we have insufficient data and may be letting our bias show. (Mine, stand behind a friend, with whatever power is needed)

I think the hard decisions are not yet taken. Time is important, but as many above have mentioned, the initial Russian assault is not answerable, it is done. What remains is the answer to the resupplied consolidation. That will be interesting.

Aug 11, 2008 - 12:13 pm 154. neolex:

“by staying at the olympics, bush is in effect saying “just putin crapping in the sandbox again, nothing worth getting worked up over”. i.e. russia isn’t important and i have better things to do than talk about their latest mis-adventure.”

Which I’m sure, Georgia (well Georgia is now likely Russia) and other countries will appreciate next time US needs bases for its military adventures when it goes against Russian interests.

Aug 11, 2008 - 12:13 pm 155. Dan:

<>

Gotta link?

Aug 11, 2008 - 12:14 pm 156. S:

When you are angriest count to ten before you act. Bush will act, the question is what the Russians are after, Azeri, Armenia, Ukraine…

US will have to draw a line or it will embolden too many. Seems this would almost ensure a strike on Iran.

Aug 11, 2008 - 12:15 pm 157. buddy larsen:

Iran asks for talks

Aug 11, 2008 - 12:18 pm 158. vitoc:

Completely crazy speculation - please tell me if I need to see a doc or something because the following is too whacky:

I found very interesting that Israel has so close military relations to Georgia. I always wondered how come that in the debates about a possible Israeli attack on Iran that Israeli attack plans would also include the use of helicopters for sending in special troops for marking targets, investigating how much damage was done by bombing, recovering pilots of shot down planes etc.

Now, to speculate a bit - where would these helicopters start from? Maybe from Georgia? If someone thought that this might be the case, maybe they would have yet another motive to invade Georgia proper, added to the control of oil pipelines and revenge for the humiliation over Kosovo? Someone would really doesn’t want Israel (or anyone else) to attack Iran?

Just look at the map! Georgia is pretty close to Iran, and using Georgia would solve some of the difficult problems with overflights over unfriendly territory Israel would otherwise have.

I’m not sure whether this has any real relationship to the reality, but if there was something to that thought, it surely would add another dimension to the current crisis.

Aug 11, 2008 - 12:18 pm 159. neolex:

@vitoc

Very interesting, could be a factor.

Aug 11, 2008 - 12:27 pm 160. Tarnsman:

From Peter Kirsanow’s list of 25 Hints You’re Not Voting for Obama over at NRO: �
13. feel a little safer during turbulence when your pilot is a calm “white haired dude.”
14. thought about Hillary’s 3:00 a.m. phone call ad when you first heard about Russian tanks in Georgia.

The American voters now have to consider the rekindling of the Cold War come November. World events conspire against Obama, again.

Aug 11, 2008 - 12:29 pm 161. David M:

The Thunder Run has linked to this post in the - Web Reconnaissance for 08/11/2008 A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention, updated throughout the day…so check back often.

Aug 11, 2008 - 12:36 pm 162. Aether:

Iran calls for “Talks” are most likely to be utilized for more delay and misdirection.

Aug 11, 2008 - 12:46 pm 163. cjm:

yes, those countries that don’t like the u.s. will be very happy with russian assistance with their problems. how’s that working out for cuba and angola?

when russia is your competition, you’ve already won the game.

shameful for the west? i think you have things a little backwards there; the shame is all on russia, not the west.

Aug 11, 2008 - 12:48 pm 164. Jamie Irons:

Wretchard,

To this day I continue to be amazed at the enduring wisdom of George Kennan. I first encountered his writings while an undergraduate at Yale; by then his long telegram was already 22 years in the past (ancient history to me in that era). But I was so taken by the quality of his writing and his mind, his toughness tempered by an aprreciation of the great things about Russia, that I have never forgotten him.

He probably saved me from becoming an utter fool (though I came damn close), and going over completely to leftism.

Jamie Irons

Aug 11, 2008 - 12:53 pm 165. neolex:

@cjm

Consider a scenario where a thug is assaulting someone on the street and a cop is standing by and does nothing. Whose actions do you think public would consider shameful? Thug is merely fulfilling an action that his designation makes the status quo, everyone expects the thug to be a thug, as such he has the automatic public contempt, the cop on the other hand, will rightfully draw public outrage.

Aug 11, 2008 - 1:01 pm 166. Lugh Lampfhota:

Russia is incapable of shame.

Aug 11, 2008 - 1:02 pm 167. coisty:

One of the pre-conditions some Europeans put on Georgia before it could join NATO was the need to resolve its separatist conflicts. Saakashvili probably thought he could launch his own Operation Storm (Croatian Krajina 1995) and change facts on the ground and in doing so remove that pre-condition for NATO membership. The Europeans (mostly Germany and France) should’ve just told Georgia outright that there is no chance of joining NATO.

(Exactly why Americans think the constant expansion of NATO is a good thing has never been adequately explained.)

George Bush’s talk of ‘freedom’ being under attack anywhere in the world being a US vital interest may have encouraged Saakashvili who is acting as if he expected US help. He started a fight he could not finish and is now trying to drag the rest of the world into this regional squabble.

I expect the Russians to now utilise the rhetoric and excuses the US has used over the past ten years to violate the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Yugoslavia/Serbia.

Aug 11, 2008 - 1:06 pm 168. Doug:

Key oil pipeline targeted with over 50 missiles
…link to RAH’s cite above.

Aug 11, 2008 - 1:08 pm 169. sfblue:

Prediction on GWB 5:15 EST News Conference:

Lot’s of blustery and serious condemnation of Russian aggression. Warnings about the dire, serious, long-lasting, etc. consequences for relationships with the international community.

This will be a necessary public relations maneuver to show global leadership, while at the same time taking the opportunity to maximize the spotlight of international scrutiny on Russia’s aggression to lay a foreign policy foundation for legitimacy of a potential NATO intervention should Russia move on another sovereign nation, Ukraine.

Russia’s biggest battle right now is a PR battle, to convince as many as possible that its action was justified to deflect the international political damage. Russia was willing to pay the price of that damage to forestall any encroaching NATO memberships. It has decided to take its chances on dangling it’s big ace card a la Iran and other more minor gestures immediately following this overthrow.

Aug 11, 2008 - 1:12 pm 170. sigintel:

Gori is now occupied,and Russian tanks are 35 miles from Tbilisi. The UN is hemming and hawing about a Security Council resolution ( that Russia will veto)…the US issues empty words, while one of our newest allies is over run by fascists. This is so reminiscent of 1938. Are we destined to repeat all of the mistakes that lead up to WWII? Looks like the west has no gumption to fight fascism and we will pay a huge price for our failure to stand-up to such naked and ruthless aggression. If the Russian tanks role into Tbilisi, there will be a huge bloodbath…so much for the expansion of democracy.

Aug 11, 2008 - 1:13 pm 171. Doug:

I like the argument that any action against Russia would immediately ignite a Global War.
Reminds me of the similar meme that we would be at war w/x billion Muslims if our rhetoric was not Politically Correct.

Aug 11, 2008 - 1:19 pm 172. exhelodrvr:

Roy,
“One AWACS, two KC-135’s, four Wild Weasels, four F-22’s, some F-16’s and F-15’s. Russian tanks and vehicles all gone.”

You’re exaggerating the effectiveness of our air power, if you think that is all that would be required. Remember that they would not have time to “shape the battlefield”, and that the Russians have the significant advantage of fighting “locally”. And the Russians have high-quality anti-air defenses, despite what happened in OIF. This would not be a “turkey shoot” like many of you seem to think.

Aug 11, 2008 - 1:23 pm 173. lugh lampfhota:

Russian troops enter Poti.

Aug 11, 2008 - 1:24 pm 174. Aether:

This is a fine example of projection on behalf of Anatoly Churkin the Russians appointee to the UNSC

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-usrussia11-2008aug11,0,5531648.story

“During Sunday’s meeting, Khalilzad asked Churkin repeatedly, “Is your government’s objective regime change in Georgia?”

Churkin responded, “Sometimes there are occasions when, and we know from history, there are different leaders who come to power either democratically or semi-democratically . . . and they become an obstacle.”"

a very ironic comment by the Russian.

Aug 11, 2008 - 1:26 pm 175. Alan Kellogg:

Here’s the problem I see with neolex’s thinking, that war must perforce be a short affair soon ended. Russia obtains her goals, and America accepts them. Because the U.S. doesn’t have the depth.

Wrong. In terms of resources the United States has much more depth than Russia does. We have the greater population, the greater industrial capacity. Where Russia has trouble keeping her infrastructure up even without a major war, we have the resources, should we chose to use it, to not only ramp up for a world wide confict, but expand our infrastructure at the same time. Let us remember that in World War Two the United States wound up with an expanded industrial plant when all other nations saw their’s shrink.

Russia is in the position of Japan in 1941, trusting in their myths about America and in the rightness of their cause. As the Japanese did before Pearl Harbor, the Russians have paid too much attention to the nattering nabobs of negativity, who have long had a rotting despite for those who aren’t as culturally and intellectually inbred as they.

Will it be a hard war? Yes. Could it be a long war? Yes. Will we win? Yes, because we get hard core when we get riled, and Russia is a hollow beast with a tough exterior, but no real meat inside.

We’re now in the final act of the Napoleonic Wars and the world is going to be forever changed by what happens in the next five or six years.

Aug 11, 2008 - 1:34 pm 176. sfblue:

Assuming that the world will watch as Tbilisi (which I do), what will happen next?

My call is increased Security Council sanctions on Iran (Russia’s part of the Deal) followed by an Israeli attack. Notice the eerie silence from Jerusalem.

Aug 11, 2008 - 1:39 pm 177. Cannoneer No. 4:

The War At Home — Spinning The Conflict In Russia

Moscow has marshaled its considerable media and propaganda forces to defend its overwhelming military response and establish its own versions of the facts.

Most of what we think we know could well be wrong.

Maskirovka and dezinformatsiya have been wildly successful, as have Soviet restrictive measures and Russian Business Network Computer Network Attack.

Aug 11, 2008 - 1:39 pm 178. Dan:

Here’s a basic question: If Georgia asked for us to help save them, are we legally obligated? I mean… yes, they are our ally, but is there a legal framework that would bind us to assist them?

Just askin’…

Aug 11, 2008 - 1:39 pm 179. Cannoneer No. 4:

Doug,

The Russians appear to have no Precision Guided Munitions. Else they’d be hitting these targets the first time.

Aug 11, 2008 - 1:42 pm 180. sfblue:

25 mins. Everyone get your popcorn and beer!

Aug 11, 2008 - 1:49 pm 181. jaymaster:

A bunch of C-17’s ( and some 141’s, I think) flew in and out of a local Army base today (in PA). I haven’t seen that happen in about 5 years.

So either stuff is being moved, or somebody wants somebody else to think that stuff is being moved.

Aug 11, 2008 - 1:51 pm 182. Lifeofthemind:

President speaks at the hour, 5 minutes from now.

Aug 11, 2008 - 1:54 pm 183. Doug:

Westhawk Georgia must switch to unconventional warfare

6. Most important, reorganize and energize Georgia’s media and propaganda operations. Today, Russia began to lose the media war. Georgia’s media operations need to turn this into a decisive rout.

Today was a bad day for Georgia’s defense. But it could be the beginning of a long string of bad days for Russia if Georgia’s leadership can act quickly.

Aug 11, 2008 - 1:55 pm 184. sfblue:

You know that the US is clearly in a position of true global leadership when a flurry of global activity and posturing is precipitated by an impending US administration change.

Aug 11, 2008 - 1:57 pm 185. Cannoneer No. 4:

How Well Have Russian Froces Performed in Georgia?

. . . there is a very real danger that the war between Russia and Georgia will drag on, with the possibility that the United States will resupply Georgia or provide it with various kinds of technologies that Russian forces are not currently capable of neutralizing except at the cost of far greater losses than they have suffered up to now.

Aug 11, 2008 - 1:58 pm 186. sfblue:

How will the US resupply Georgia? Through what mechanism? Turkey?

Aug 11, 2008 - 2:00 pm 187. Lifeofthemind:

Correction whitehouse.gov says at 5:15 Eastern Time.

Aug 11, 2008 - 2:04 pm 188. fred:

Doug,

I seriously doubt that Russia is truly interested in winning a propaganda war, despite the ubiquitous nature of their agents of disinformation in all these weblog discussions (and their allied Western useful idiots squawking about Kosovo being the raison d’etre for this attack). Their only purpose is to blunt an early, hard public opinion against Russia, and thereafter when the Russians have Georgia digested it’s not going to matter anyway.

Russia did this:

1. To take out a country on its border that is a U.S. ally.

2. To humiliate the United States and send the message that the U.S. is an unreliable ally and cannot defend anyone.

3. To seize the oil pipeline which we helped build and cut off a non-Russian controlled supply of oil to Europe.

4. To show Europe that it is well and truly on a dog collar with the leash and lead running from Moscow.

5. And possibly to set up its air force in Georgia to help Iran if we should inaugurate an air campaign to destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons’ development programs and enrichment facilities.

6. To stem the tide of falling oil prices.

Make no mistake about it, as small as Georgia is this is a serious defeat for the West an our country.

Aug 11, 2008 - 2:06 pm 189. Teresita:

RAH: A population of 4.5 million should have enough males available to mobilized but only have 22 thousand in uniform

Imagine if the IDF only had 22,000 troops. Don’t be starting stuff you can’t finish if all you got is enough troops to staff a parade.

Aug 11, 2008 - 2:13 pm 190. Aether:

Doug,

I’m flattered.

Aether

http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=13529219&postID=2749304228102276861

Aug 11, 2008 - 2:14 pm 191. Cannoneer No. 4:

How Does It End?

. . . the illusion of a world governed by “rules” backed up by American power has been shattered once and for all. State sovereignty doesn’t mean much; neither do illusory “guarantees” that are not backed by real commitments. Trust the “international community”? Trust the “goodwill” of Western politicians?

Aug 11, 2008 - 2:22 pm 192. Lugh Lampfhota:

Bush’s comments will terrify the Russians. I’m sure Putin has ordered an immesdiate withdrawl of all Russian “peacekeepers”.

Aug 11, 2008 - 2:24 pm 193. Dan:

Since I am not fluent in “diplospeak,” what did Bush just say?

Aug 11, 2008 - 2:24 pm 194. ash:

my my, now wasn’t that a powerful statement by our glorious POTUS?

Aug 11, 2008 - 2:25 pm 195. Fletcher Christian:

I would like to say that the Russians need to be stood up to. Whether or not one likes the fact (and I don’t - I’m British and I utterly hate the fact that we can’t even make a decent contribution in Iraq) the only country that can and might do it is the USA. Tne French - let’s be serious, eh? The Germans - oh, they have a little matter of a constitutional prohibition against sending out any combat troops. The smaller European countries aren’t worth mentioning in this context. The Turks - maybe, but they have enough problems of their own.

And the USA is also struggling in a quagmire (of its own making, but what does that matter?) in Iraq, and can’t match Russian forces if things get somewhat ugly in Georgia after they have sent some in. Note that I didn’t say “really ugly”. “Really ugly” is reserved for the 50-year nightmare. Russia is a backward dump; but it’s a backward dump with 20,000 nuclear weapons. South Ossetia is not worth Armageddon. Georgia isn’t, either.

So there you have it, and it is all our fault. Georgia and possibly other countries are going to be reabsorbed, and it’s all our fault. Why is it all our fault? Because the West is too dependent on oil and uses too much, which makes the price of oil higher, which gives Russia more hard currency and resources to use in its current adventure. And we are still not doing anything about that dependency.

Georgia is going to once again become part of Russia. So, perhaps, are many other countries, and it is all our fault. Because the civilised West has an insatiable thirst for a resource that is almost entirely owned by warlords, religious fanatics and thugs. Think about that as you’re driving your SUV.

Aug 11, 2008 - 2:36 pm 196. Cannoneer No. 4:

Georgia Strikes Back With Air Defenses

Too bad the Georgian Brigade didn’t return from Iraq with some Avengers.

Aug 11, 2008 - 2:36 pm 197. buddy larsen:

He said “Russia must immediately withdraw from Georgia” –What was it you wanted to hear, Ash? A threat to launch ICBMs?

I think your Bush hatred is your political position. Maybe someday you’ll develop some sort of principle other than animus, and thereby begin the climb the stairway to coherence.

Aug 11, 2008 - 2:43 pm 198. buddy larsen:

Good honest post, Fletcher Christian.

Aug 11, 2008 - 2:48 pm 199. DB:

U.S. to Complete Redeployment of Georgian Forces from Iraq
http://www.defenselink.mil//news/newsarticle.aspx?id=50765

The U.S.-assisted redeployment of Georgian troops from Iraq to their home country should be completed today, a Pentagon spokesman said. American military aircraft began shuttling the brigade of Georgian forces yesterday, as clashes with Russian forces intensified since fighting broke out last week in the breakaway region of South Ossetia in Georgia, a former Soviet republic.

The U.S.-provided transport of the 2,000-strong contingent adheres to an agreement that U.S. and Georgian government officials arranged before Russian tanks and troops crossed Georgia’s border on Aug. 8, Pentagon Spokesman Bryan Whitman said today….

Meanwhile, some 130 U.S. military personnel serving as trainers to national forces in Georgia will remain in the war-torn country, Whitman said. He added that all U.S. trainers there are safe and accounted for, and that presently there are no plans to remove them from Georgia.

Aug 11, 2008 - 2:50 pm 200. Triton'sPolarTiger:

Dang it, these are the days having a job sucks out loud. I wanted to hear Bush’s statement - no dice - now looking for transcript…

Aug 11, 2008 - 2:53 pm 201. Triton'sPolarTiger:

“Meanwhile, some 130 U.S. military personnel serving as trainers to national forces in Georgia will remain in the war-torn country, Whitman said. He added that all U.S. trainers there are safe and accounted for, and that presently there are no plans to remove them from Georgia.”

Tripwires?

Aug 11, 2008 - 2:55 pm 202. ash:

yeah, he said “Russia must immediately withdraw from Georgia” - another line in the sand that will be crossed with no response. He’s bluffed and been called so many times its become laughable. Superb poker player my ass. No, a threat to launch ICBM’s would be a problem. It is sad the hole he’s dug so deep for US. He looked and sounded beat in the statement. It’s a good thing for him that it had little national coverage…so far.

Aug 11, 2008 - 2:57 pm 203. fred:

Fletcher Christian,

It’s news to us that we are in a “quagmire” in Iraq. All of the battlefield metrics give us a slam dunk, plus the political benchmarks and metrics are looking up too. So, if you would clarify this for us, how is it that we are in a “quagmire.” I’m honestly asking, not being sarcastic. I’m genuinely perplexed by this characterization, since over here it’s only the Left that bandies that term around.

Aug 11, 2008 - 2:57 pm 204. cjm:

fletcher christian was a mutineer and a coward.

Aug 11, 2008 - 3:03 pm 205. jwillie:

Bush’s tone was reminiscent of post 9-11 and pre-Iraq - somber, sober and serious. He strongly denouncedRussia’s actions, as well as its prospective intentions, and demanded that they withdraw. As Buddy noted, Ash, what would you have him add to that? Maybe an “or else”? The real pressure will be applied with deeds, public and not public. As Stratfor notes, Poland has been cured of its footdragging on BMD agreement, consequently that deal will be completed very quickly. Other defense/support agreements with Ukraine and other Eastern European likely to follow, whether Germany likes it or not. Only McCain made a stronger denouncement, and he’s not POTUS, so he’s not bound by having to follow through. Meanwhile, Obama’s surfing….while the image planted by Hillary of that 3:00 am phone call to Obama lurches scarily back into many undecided (and probably some recently rendered undecided) minds (whether admitted or not).

Aug 11, 2008 - 3:08 pm 206. Roy Lofquist:

Exhelodrvr,

A couple of points:

The Russians do not have sophisticated air defenses in Georgia. In fact, that particular corner of Russia has always been bereft of fire control radar. The coverage has been concentrated on the north side of the Black Sea, along the direct path from Incirlik to important targets. Any sophisticated missiles would be north of the mountains - well out of range. Note also the complete surprise of the Israeli attack on the Syrian facility.

High altitude bombing is no problem when using JDAM equipped weapons. In order to be any threat, AAA would have to be radar directed at that altitude. Lunch for the Wild Weasels.

The combination of AWACS and F-22’s should be able to handle any interceptor aircraft in the area. From the little I’ve seen all of the Russian aircraft are configured for ground attack. There would not be enough time for them to get interceptors to the area.

Forgot to mention the JSTARS. As you may remember, during OIF we took out a significant armored force in the middle of a sandstorm.

No need for battlefield prep. This is the prep for the Georgian Army.

I did not mean to imply that it would be a cakewalk. Nor do I think it’s likely. I was replying to the number of posts that implied that we didn’t have sufficient capabilities to turn the tide.

Regards,
Roy

Aug 11, 2008 - 3:09 pm 207. buddy larsen:

That was a serious question, Ash. What did you want to hear him say? Surely you can state a thesis phrase in a dozen words or so.

Aug 11, 2008 - 3:14 pm 208. Huan:

unmanned vehicles can be given to Georgian soldiers for use.
and cruise missile strike to cut Russian supply lines.

Aug 11, 2008 - 3:16 pm 209. buddy larsen:

If you didn’t like the statement, then you must have had an alternate in mind. Surely you’re not peeved because he failed to make Ash “feel good” –because, you know, from him to you, that would be impossible.

Aug 11, 2008 - 3:17 pm 210. buddy larsen:

let me help you, Ash. More dovish? Or more hawkish? Should he have blamed Georgia? Should he have used a little humor? Should he have wept a little, for emotional cred? Should he have said, “Y’know, I’m just so tickled that Russia wants another cold war” and then rolled his eyes, while off-camera a drummer hits a rim shot?

Aug 11, 2008 - 3:25 pm 211. 2164th:

Ash likes to shock. He rarely awes.

Aug 11, 2008 - 3:33 pm 212. bobal:

Something like this, Buddy, I think is what Ash is looking for–

“For our sins of backing Russia into a corner, for our hubris and overbearing pride, for our deception in masking offensive intentions behind ballistic missile shields, for our support of the Georgians in seeking to join NATO, for all these reasons I appeal to our Russian friends to go easy on the people of Georgia, when it is we of the USA who are at fault here.” President Bush

Aug 11, 2008 - 3:34 pm 213. Cannoneer No. 4:

Puppets and Puppeteers In Information Wars

When checking a reaction to any event in popular blogs it is always interesting to separate comments into different categories. There are people who agree or disagree to the author’s point of view, there are people who just dropping their 2 cents and there are people who just want to “chime in”, so that their user name and web site show up. In blog communities, namely LiveJournal, that’s very popular among Russian-speaking crowd, things go a little different, especially for a political event. Once something major breaks in - and by major I understand something attracting hundreds and hundreds of comments - a very special kinds of trolls crawl from under the bridges. Some of them are, indeed, creatures of their own low self-esteem. Others, however, appear to be on government’s payroll. Given the ultra-patriotism that Russian government under Putin was imposing it was both amazing and scary to watch the proliferation of “paid ultra-patriotic trolls” (PUPTs, which sounds close enough to “puppets”) throughout the Russian-speaking web.

Some of those PUPTs can type in English, as we have seen on this thread and others.

Aug 11, 2008 - 3:38 pm 214. buddy larsen:

There ya go, Ash, bobal saved your bacon. And in excellent form and grammar, to boot.

Aug 11, 2008 - 3:39 pm 215. whiskey:

NahnCee –

I am an American realist, politically, and understand GWB’s real limits within the system.

You seem to think that Presidents exist outside a political vacuum. They do not. Congress can and will impeach those they don’t like. Even Clinton found that out.

GWB is lazy and unwilling to fight for his goals, politically. His weak response, even weaker than OBAMA’S (second effort) shows how lame-duck and hamstrung he is. Within the limits of American politics, GWB can do nothing but be a caretaker President, handing over policy to Condi and Gates who are willing to do whatever it takes to make Putin happy.

This is reality.

Georgia is ALREADY lost. Period. Russian troops should be mopping up in about two weeks or so. Running the place under permanent occupation. This is reality. [The Turks are not going to fight or be in conflict with Russia, they are allied in Islamic extremism with Iran and secularism/Kemalism is dead in Turkey.]

Another reality is that NATO is dead, and most of Europe will be forced to reach an accomodation with Russia, as a satellite, due to dependence on oil and gas and military disparities. Russia has a military, and Europe just doesn’t. This is also reality.

The way forward for America is long and hard and alone. We won’t have allies, since we’re seen as weak and unreliable. There are no real military forces in the world anyway besides China and Japan anyway, outside Russia and regional powers like Iran. This means lots of military spending, rebuilding, and so on to strike independently around the Globe. With lots more nukes.

But it’s NOT the Cold War. Putin does not want or need a communist empire. Instead he wants a global price of oil at north of $145 a barrel or more. China is our ally on this since they need cheap oil and face Russia’s allies in high oil prices, demanding separatist aims. More explosions and attacks in XianXing by Uighur separatists today.

[A strong President would have ordered a tit-for-tat attack on Iran, now, labeling the Iranians as conspiring with the Russians on nukes, calling them a threat, and completely crippling Iran's economy: targeting transport, electricity, water, everything else. Bush cannot do this because of his political weakness. However that response would have avoided direct US-Russian confrontation and taken out tit-for-tat Russia's ally and America's direct and avowed enemy.]

Aug 11, 2008 - 3:40 pm 216. buddy larsen:

It ain’t over, whiskey. it’s just one of the early rounds.

Aug 11, 2008 - 3:53 pm 217. buddy larsen:

Western Europe is not dead. Just look at history –those people have always been deadly warriors. They fed themselves willingly into a meatgrinder less than a hundred years ago. Those genes are alive, and will be kicking again just as soon as they wake up. Nothing changes until something makes it change.

Aug 11, 2008 - 3:59 pm 218. Mike:

After watching Georgia get sold down the river, I wonder what Taiwan is thinking or for that matter what China is thinking.

Aug 11, 2008 - 4:22 pm 219. Dan:

From an article…

“The Pentagon said it had finished flying some 2,000 Georgian troops back home from Iraq on C-17 aircraft at Georgia’s request.”

Two things:

1) the airport is open.
2) C-17s are landing.

One can only hope that personal items were NOT the only cargo offloaded.

Aug 11, 2008 - 4:27 pm 220. buddy larsen:

Bush’s slip (was it a slip?), when he spoke of ‘an effort underway to replace the government of Russia’ kind of sparks an idea –wonder what a Chinese or Indian would think of it –that the Kremlin might not have a moral right, now that both sides of the iron curtain have demonstrated against border & boundary, to own eleven time zones worth of the northern hemisphere, wherein lie the natural resources of the Eurasian land mass, which is occupied by billions of people on the other sides of those silly map lines, who are now being prepped to slave their lives away in return for little squirts of oil & gas, at the whim and pleasure of the Kremlin, which is after all merely a few cruel men in a gray building in a city far away.

Aug 11, 2008 - 4:34 pm 221. Ash:

yeah, bobal’s good.

It’s not so much what he said but that fact that he had to say it. To paraphrase what he said was “Get out, please”. There is no threat, no conditions asked, because our position is so weak. It is a fait accompli and it isn’t as if this came out of the blue, welll, it shouldn’t have for the Admin. but who knows, Bush looked into Putin’s eyes and saw good, and co-operation, and all that sh*t, so now he is asking for Putin to “keep his word”. That’s it, in a stern voice “keep your word”. What’s he going to do, pull a few divisions out of Iraq, move half to Afghanistan and the others on a road trip to the Ukraine?

Aug 11, 2008 - 4:34 pm 222. Doug:

Sorry Aether, I most ALWAYS give an ht, but neglected to there.
I’ll be sure to make it prominent next time!
(think I did, in fact at the Elephant Bar.)

Aug 11, 2008 - 4:49 pm 223. lc:

whiskey;
With respect, especially considering your frequent and perspicacious (that was tough to type) comments, I disagree with the general tenor of your posts, if not the facts. True, Bush’s options for action are limited and the “political” is a real factor in what the President can (or will) do. I disagree that he is lazy or unwilling to fight. I think he has shown he is capable of making both the politically popular and unpopular decision, and, he IS still the President.
I’m afraid you are correct that Georgia is already lost…it is harder to undo a deed than to keep it from happening to begin with. However, Russia could use a too strong reaction on our part to split apart our European alliances, something you seem to think a done deal. A more measured response could have the opposite effect; Russia’s aggressiveness is a good issue to use to rally our allies. This would serve our national interest much more than immediately liberating an overrun Georgia. (This is probably a poor analogy to use, but in some revisionist histories of the second world war, the appeasement of Chamberlin let Hitler show his true colors and bought some important time, for at least England, to rearm…perhaps enough to be prepared enough for the Battle of Britain…please, I’m NOT recommending appeasement, but, nothing is static).
Comments here have made mention of insurgent warfare against Russian occupying forces - I think our successes taming insurgents in Iraq belie a sophistication which I doubt the Russians could master. Additionally, with our (and others) help, we could make the bed the Russians have made quite difficult to lie in.
$145 a barrel for oil is bad for us, but I am not sure that particular monetary value means as much to the Russians - how important is the relative value of the dollar to them? I think the price of oil is still pegged to the dollar, but is that where the value lies for the Russians, at least relative to raping Georgia?
It is a dicey situation, but I think the US has historically done quite well in that turbulent area along the edge of chaos in spite of our slavish obeisance to stability displayed during the Cold War. In fact, “stability” has not always done us well.
regards
lensatic compass

Aug 11, 2008 - 4:50 pm 224. buddy larsen:

Thanks, Ash. The next question (maybe this one you’ll answer?) is, if your comment above, and your de-facto admission now that it only referred to itself, is a fractal of the jillion similar self-referential sneers cast over the last eight years (which have, by weakening and vexing the national leadership, also weakened and vexed the national performance –and in a very real way enabled the conditions for creating the topic of this thread), then shouldn’t there have been any ideas behind them, other than that it’s fun to be fashionable, and the fashion was “opposition for the sake of opposition”?

Aug 11, 2008 - 5:12 pm 225. exhelodrvr:

Roy,
“The Russians do not have sophisticated air defenses in Georgia”
Their mobile systems are quite sophisticated. And they have hundreds of armored vehicles in the region now, yet you are talking about 10-12 tactical aircraft taking them out. And a handful of F-22s would not be able to handle all the interceptors/fighters that the Russians have in the area. You don’t think they have radar, at a minimum mobile radar, up in the mountains? And you are also forgetting about their naval assets in the Black Sea, for both the radar and missile capability. And they will be prepared for this.
“From the little I’ve seen all of the Russian aircraft are configured for ground attack. There would not be enough time for them to get interceptors to the area.”

No interceptors? This has obviously been planned for a long time. And even if it wasn’t, how long would it take the Russians to fly interceptors in to the region? Less than an hour.

“Forgot to mention the JSTARS. As you may remember, during OIF we took out a significant armored force in the middle of a sandstorm.”

Great. If this was the Iraqi army in Georgia, with us having local air superiority, this wouldn’t be a problem. And how many aircraft were involved in that episode? Many more than you are suggesting here.

No, you are significantly overestimating the relative ability of our forces to those of the Russians.

Aug 11, 2008 - 5:27 pm 226. section9:

The notion that the United States will intervene in a region where Russia has overwhelming land and air superiority is a brain-addled fantasy. We will not.

However, the move by Putin makes action in the Carribean or, much more likely, the Iranian theater astronomically more likely. Russia moves and gobbles up part of one of our clients. We counter by moving forward in a sustained bombing campaign against the Iranians, possibly with the use of tactical nuclear weapons by the Israelis.

The Russians and the Chinese would be deeply impressed.

Bush has nothing to lose. Now is not a good time to be a Persian.

Aug 11, 2008 - 5:53 pm 227. ash:

you are twisting yourself into a pretzel with that last post buddy. For better or worse, I try to post with an honest voice - my own. Yes, I sneer at the righteous right wing nut fanatic as I also sneer at the leftwing do-gooders. I find it particularly interesting that so many supporters of the neo-con agenda portray themselves as ex-liberals.

Aug 11, 2008 - 6:16 pm 228. F451_2.0:

trangbang68, interesting name…something to do with Vietnam I take it. Appreciated your off topic observations regarding Canadians Aug. 11 @8:46.

In keeping what I believe is your Vietnam theme and remarks, over 40,000 Canadians fought in Vietnam between 1957 and 1985. And they were not under penalty of imprisonment if they didn’t.Volunteers. Who knew?

And by the by, aside from the bazillion tons of ordnance we shipped to you, (thanks for the cash by the way), being a nominally “neutral” country, we could, and did, tippy-toe through North Vietnam and well write things down we saw in passing….repeatedly and continuously.

A guy like you would probably jump at the chance to say “thanks for your service,” they don’t get to hear that much from guys like you from south of the border even though their website is right here:

http://www.canadiansinvietnam.ca/
Canadians In Vietnam

or the extent to which Canada played a role
is right here:

http://www.partnersinmotion.com/HEM/docs/viet.htm
Partners in Motion: Vietnam: Canada’s Unknown War

That’s okay. You’re welcome.

Aug 11, 2008 - 6:16 pm 229. IdrisEnoch:

If we (NATO) don’t provide military help to Georgia we will be doing to the Georgians exactly what we did to the southern Iraqis under Bush the elder.

This will be coupled with the fact that the Georgian Prez has been playing the “this is 1938″ card for months and telling everyoner he can that if NATO does not respond it is finished in the region. Who will trust us after selling them out?

If they are not going to help Georgia, then the proper response is to invade Cuba to protect American citizens at Gitmo. “Castro must go” should have been Condi’s response to the Russian.

Aug 11, 2008 - 6:26 pm 230. Roy Lofquist:

exhelodrvr,

Incirlik to Georgia - 2 hours. Fly east to Ararat area, pop up - warning time: 15 minutes on AB. F-22’s - no warning whatsoever. Each F-22 carries 6 AIM-120C’s and 4 AIM-9 Sidewinders. Flight of 4 can splash 40 interceptors.

“The reductions of the organization have had their effect on the base structure. For instance the largest strategic air base in the Caucasus was closed in 1998. All airworthy Tu-95 Bears at Mozdok, North Osetia, were flown to Engels and the Mozdok air base was closed. One reason for the closure of Mozdok has been said to be its location only 50 km (31 miles) from Chechen border and the guerilla threat. (82)” http://www.sci.fi/~fta/ruaf-3-3.htm

Russia does not have 40 interceptors within 2 hours of Georgia. If they did they’d turn back when the first wave just disappeared.

An F15-E has a payload of 24,250 pounds. Four wing pylons with small diameter 250 lb = 12 JDAMs.

F16 - 6 JDAMs.

Reports I have seen mention 100 T-72’s.

Twenty F-16/F15-E would get a large number of them.

Radars in the hills? That’s what the wild weasels are for. Only radar you have to be concerned with is targeting radars. They have to be close to the SAM’s. SAM’s in the hills? I doubt it very much. Way out of range to hit aircraft going after tanks in the central valley.

Again, I am not advocating this strategy nor do I think it would be without loss. Remember, it’s war. But, if we wanted to we could on very short notice.

Regards,
Roy

Aug 11, 2008 - 6:48 pm 231. Roy Lofquist:

Exhelodrvr,

Short postscript: In OIF we were facing the Russian’s best air defenses installed over a long period. The two Russian Generals, one air and one ground, skedaddled two days before the balloon went up.

Regards,
Roy

Aug 11, 2008 - 6:55 pm 232. TmjUtah:

section9 -

The U.S. Air Force was designed to attain air superiority against any power, over the enemy’s own turf. Feature, not bug.

If the Rus lose the air over Georgia, the ground component becomes targets.

Not saying it will happen. But the technical gulf is vast, and nobody knows it better than the pilots flying those SU’s and HINDS.

Aug 11, 2008 - 7:10 pm 233. Alan Kellogg:

I’m hearing a few folks saying that Americans can’t go the distance. Bull. We’ve gone the distance before, and we can go the distance again. It may take us some time to prepare, but when we’re on full wartime footing Russia is toast.

Aug 11, 2008 - 7:41 pm 234. exhelodrvr:

Roy,
“In OIF we were facing the Russian’s best air defenses installed over a long period.”

With Iraqis manning them, with no air capability at all on the Iraqi side, with Spec Ops spotters on the ground, vast ground forces available for coordinated ops, and months for planning/intel and practice. There is no way you can compare the two. Achieving air superiority over Georgia would be a huge undertaking, not just involving 15 or 20 planes as you cavalierly described. WE’RE NOT THAT GOOD!!

Aug 11, 2008 - 8:24 pm 235. exhelodrvr:

Roy,
“Each F-22 carries 6 AIM-120C’s and 4 AIM-9 Sidewinders. Flight of 4 can splash 40 interceptors.”

You think that an F-22 would get a 1 for 1 ratio with it’s missiles? No way!!

And there will be warning. Maybe not a lot, but the Russians will be watching, and waiting, for this. F-22s are not invisible.

They can’t get 40 fighters there within 2 hours? Look at the map. That’s a 1000 mile radius. For an operation that they obviously had been planning for.

Aug 11, 2008 - 8:34 pm 236. Roy Lofquist:

exhelodrvr,

We haven’t seen the F-22 in any actual combat. I am well aware of the hype put out by service advocates and manufacturers.

I never kept track of hours, but I made a considerable number of flights in A3-D’s - touted as the ultimate carrier launched medium bomber. Put in enough fuel to get anywhere and you could drop leaflets. Put in enough enough bombs to do any good and you could take off, orbit and land. That was always a great adventure in “The Whale”. They tried them as tankers with disappointing results. They did, however, serve yeoman duty as intelligence aircraft. In service for 50 years. Not great, but better than some. Incidentally, I was in the Army.

I base a lot of my judgment on past performance starting with Korea. The MIG-15 was a better airplane than the F-86. The F-86 prevailed.

In Vietnam the MIG-19’s ate our lunch except against the F8-U’s. The F-4 was designed as a bomber interceptor and really sucked close in. The Air Force tried technology, mainly with the F-105. Not much to show for it. The Navy put a cannon in the F-4, went “Top Gun” - wasted commie ass.

My knowledge of driving (actually riding in) a truck comes from personal experience. My knowledge of fighters comes mostly from my friend Ed. He flew F-4’s, F-105’s and F-100’s in Nam. He ended his career as a two star in the Air National Guard. Stint with the Blue Angels. He hated the 4, grumbled at The Thud and loved the 100. “Best truck killer ever”.

The thread from Ed and other fighter jocks I’ve known (a couple of very good hockey players) is that it’s the training that counts. U.S. pilots have ten times the stick time of the Russians. Add the simulator time and it’s off the map. At closing speeds of 1,500 mph it’s just like bayonet fighters - the quick and the dead.

The other existential factor is situational awareness. AWACS is an amazing force multiplier.

Obviously this is hypothetical at this point. The only real experience that we have is Desert Storm and OIF. In DS there was a 30-1 kill ratio before they refused to fly. In OIF they buried the MIG’s in the sand. Not too good for the aerodynamics but the ultimate stealth fighter, er miner.

The Russian Air Force is a bit of a joke. Yes, on paper, they have some good aircraft. Unfortunately they have Russian engines. It’s like tires in a NASCAR race. You get 150 miles on a 100,000 mile Michelin. They simply can’t afford the stick time to develop competent pilots. And their simulators really, really suck. Fifty attacks on the pumping station and it’s still pumping away.

The US has diligently learned the lessons of modern warfare. The Russians are still the Cossacks. Cannon fodder to the front while the officers have “Russian tea”.

Regards,
Roy

Aug 11, 2008 - 10:26 pm 237. Fletcher Christian:

fred: Quagmire or not, the point is that hundreds of thousands of troops are stuck there, can’t be removed without making Iraq even more of a nightmare than it already is, and would take months to move anywhere else in an orderly manner, without unacceptable risk to them or their equipment, in any case. Which makes them unavailable and not a factor on the timescale currently in question.

And even if none of the above was true, is the USA really going to risk Armageddon over a region with a total population approximately the same as that of Los Angeles? I don’t think so.

The only thing that can really be done is financial - freeze Russian assets and stop buying anything - and that can’t be done either. Why? Simple. Western Europe has allowed itself to become dependent on Russia for most of its natural gas supply; and winter isn’t all that far off. Another decision I didn’t like much - but I didn’t make it.

If many years of anti-military socialist governments hadn’t turned the UK’s armed forces into a shadow of their former selves, then maybe we could do something. The UK has probably the second-best troops, airmen and sailors in the world (behind Israel, and they have been fighting a war for sixty years), but they are underequipped and there just aren’t enough of them. Not a decision I liked - but, once again, I didn’t make it.

Aug 12, 2008 - 1:54 am 238. exhelodrvr:

Roy,
You’re not giving enough weight to the fact that there will be considerable numerical advantage on the part of the Russians, terrain advantage, lack of surprise, and considerable ground/sea anti-air assets that the U.S. would be dealing with. None of those were factors in the recent examples you listed, and those were against Iraqi pilots.

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:34 am 239. cjm:

make all the excuses you want, but russian military gear is crap. it has a 100% losing record to American arms. with all the UAV’s we have, we can eliminate every air defense site in georgia in 24 hours without risking a single crewman’s life. keep talking up the enemy, it’s good for military budgets. but if you really believe the nonsense you’ve been spouting here, i have a subprime loan for you.

Aug 12, 2008 - 11:59 am 240. exhelodrvr:

cjm,
Before you start spouting off, you might want to actually read the posts. The discussion was not whether or not American personnel and equipment is better than the Russian personnel and equipment. The question was whether or not “One AWACS, two KC-135’s, four Wild Weasels, four F-22’s, some F-16’s and F-15’s. Russian tanks and vehicles all gone” would work.

If you think they would, then you are foolish. (Assuming “some” doesn’t mean “50+”).

A claim was also made by the same poster that four F-22s, carrying 10 missiles each, would be able to shoot down 40 Russian planes, thus establishing air superiority in one mission.

Do you believe that one, too?

Aug 12, 2008 - 12:10 pm 241. cjm:

i am responding to your original thesis, regarding the difficulty (or lack thereof) involved in the u.s. achieving air superiority over georgia, or any other place on the face of the planet.

Aug 12, 2008 - 12:50 pm 242. exhelodrvr:

Well, if you think that 20 aircraft can achieve air superiority over Georgia, you are wrong.

Aug 12, 2008 - 12:55 pm 243. cjm:

apparently your reading comprehension skills are the root of your ignorance. alas, repairing the poor job your elementary school teachers did is beyond my abilities. good luck with the phonics course.

Aug 12, 2008 - 1:32 pm

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