279 Comments

1. John Samford:

I feel like I have a seat at the kick off of World War IV ( Or is it V?) only it’s behind a column. Fog of war indeed. The guys to my left and right are ‘helping’ me out. With conflicting information.
So now my question is; ‘If Turkey sending weapons to Georgia is an act of war, what is Russia sending weapons to Iran? A Yard sale?’

What we are seeing here is pure, 19th century power politics. My Army is bigger then yours so this is how it’s gonna be.

Now is the time to withdraw from the UN. Send that nest of spies and crime lords packing.

Aug 10, 2008 - 7:04 am 2. Mike Sylwester:

“The Russian newspaper cited a Russian Defense Ministry report published three months prior that claims over the past four years Turkey has supplied Georgia with $45 million in weapons and ammunition, as well as training Georgian army officers.”
————-

I assume that in return for the weapons and ammunition, Georgia supplied Turkey with $45 million in cash or goods. In other words, Turkey has been SELLING not SUPPLYING weapons to Georgia. This relationship reminds me of various other arrangements where, for example, Russia supplies weapons to various countries, in exchange for which those very same countries supply (and this is not a coincidence!) cash and other goods of equal value to Russia.

Since the Georgians have completely destroyed Tskhinvali, why should they fight the Russians to stay there? Now, because of the Georgians, the former city of Tskhinvali is a flat area of ground, kind of like a meadow or open plain. It’s a place where a lot of civiilians used to live last week, but nobody lives there this week, because there are no buildings to live in. So, I don’t think there is an issue of the Georgians being “driven out.” Rather, they left an empty place.

Aug 10, 2008 - 7:24 am 3. TmjUtah:

On the first “Who’s Winning” thread I posted the date that Hitler remilitarized the Rhineland.

I stand by that date as a valid historical precedent for what we are seeing now.

What was Putin thinking, doing this now? He couldn’t wait three months, or for the spring?

Every weapon system in the U.S. arsenal is battle tested. Every combat arms officer in the U.S. Army or Marine Corps has at least one, if not more, combat tours behind them.

Georgia is a friend and ally. Bush knows his history, and further knows evil when he sees it. The quantity and complexity of the Russian effort make it obvious they aren’t worried about Georgia – they are daring the EU, the former Warsaw Pact countries, and America to make a move.

There is tremendous potential for tragedy here.

If the United States acts quickly, we can realize two important changes:

The EU/NATO “partners” will be publicly recognized for the gutless children they have become. And we just may possibly finally kick the U.N. out of New York.

Yep. 1936. We can fight now when they are on bicycles, or in a few years when they rule Europe.

It’s our call now.

Aug 10, 2008 - 7:30 am 4. Mike Sylwester:

It’s interesting that the topography is described as the city of Tskhinvali, populated by Ossetians, being surrounded by hills populated by Georgians living in villages.

This reminds me of the topography of Saraevo, where village Serbs in the surrounding hills were constantly sniping DOWNWARDS at the Bosnian Moslems in the lower-elevation city.

It’s remarkable that in this current situation it has supposedly been the lower-elevation densely-populated urban Ossetians sniping UPWARDS a the higher-elevation sparely-populated village Georgians.

Aug 10, 2008 - 7:31 am 5. JewishOdysseus:

A valuable (if fickle) analysis here, too:
http://orbat.com

Aug 10, 2008 - 7:44 am 6. Cannoneer No. 4:

Bombardment Near Gori

Civil Georgia, Tbilisi / 10 Aug.’08 / 16:28

Russian military aircraft dropped bombs on a road close to Gori, linking the western part of the country with the east, the Georgian Public Broadcaster Reported.

GPB re-transmitted live footage of Reuters showing large plumes of smoke rising into the sky from, what appeared to be an area where the road lies, outside Gori.

Scale of the damage was not immediately clear.

GPB’s reporter in Gori reported that several bombs were also dropped inside the town but there were no reports yet about casualties.

Gori, the town close to the breakaway South Ossetia, came under massive aerial attack on August 9 in which scores of civilian population of killed.

Meanwhile, Temur Iakobashvili, the Georgian state minister for reintegration, said at a news briefing at 3pm local time that “no serious military operation” was ongoing at that moment in South Ossetia, in particular in the vicinity of Tskhinvali.

Georgian forces pulled out from Tskhinvali in early hours of August 10.

Iakobashvili, however, said it was a tactical move to re-group the Georgian troops in order to better position them.

“’Retreat’ or ‘defeat’ are not appropriate words to describe the Georgian forces’ maneuvers,” Iakobashvili said. “We are not going to retreat.”

I hope nobody objects to me posting the entire article. Civil Georgia has been under cyber attack and a link won’t always work.

Aug 10, 2008 - 7:54 am 7. Pajamas Media » Who’s Winning in Georgia?:

[...] Read the entire story here… [...]

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:05 am 8. wretchard:

Given the scale of the threat, the Georgians had no option but to fall back and trade time for space. But they have precious little space to trade. And with Russian control of the air, it will probably do no good to operate a mobile reserve. The Turks have put aid stations near the border. Given the axis of threat the Georgians will be pushed against the Turkish frontier with all the dangers that involves.

The Georgians are facing a set of terrible decision points. If they want to preserve their infrastructure, until now but slightly damaged, they can sue for peace. The alternative is to wire everything for demolition, mine every approach that can be mined and leave the Russians with a succession of Tskhinvalis.

I don’t know how the Georgians will act. What have they been told? To hold out? And for how long? From outward indications they’ve been given no definite promises.

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:09 am 9. Mike Sylwester:

tmjUtah:
“We can fight now when they are on bicycles, or in a few years when they rule Europe.”
————

Russia has had military forces in Southern Ossetia continuously since the year 1801. For comparison, Ohio became a US state in the year 1803.

Throughout Russia’s long presence in Southern Ossetia, Russia has helped protect Ossetian cultural autonomy from the Georgians. During the Soviet period, that area was defined as the South Ossetian Autonomous Oblast, an arrangement that enabled that ethnic group to administer its own schools, mass media and cultural institutions in the Ossetian language. Every inhabitant of that authonomous oblast had the legal right to conduct all his personal legal affairs in that language.

Because of that historical background, the Ossetians trust and welcome the Russians to protect their endangered language and culture from the Georgians. Furthermore, the Russians themselves do no think of themselves as invading or occupying this area or doing anything that deserves any criticism from Europe, the USA or anyone else.

Arguing that Russia’s military intervention to protect South Ossetia is just a perlude to Russia ruling Europe in a few years is absurd.

All this hysterical nonsense ought to give us a better understanding about the Russian’s hysterical reaction to USA’s intervention in the former Yugoslavia to protect the Bosnians and Albanians from the Serbs. In that situation, the Russians hollered sanctimoniously that our humanitarian intervention to save the evil Moslems from the saintly Serbs was a prelude to the USA trying to take over the entire world. Now we are seeing a similar stupidity in reverse.

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:09 am 10. wretchard:

Russia is welcome to South Ossetia. Even the Georgians have apparently given that up. But in the next few days, perhaps hours, we’ll know whether Russia wants Georgia itself. It will be manifested as fact, one way or the other. Up to this point there is no irreparable breach. What will 48 hours bring?

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:12 am 11. Cannoneer No. 4:

Georgia: Russia demands to be regarded as number one

Why has Russia reverted to traditional means of controlling its former satellite states? At the heart of Vladimir Putin’s aggressive nationalism is his firm belief that the power of the West is on the wane, says James Sherr.

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:18 am 12. wretchard:

The Georgians have now offered the Russians terms. Will the Russians accept? If they do, the Georgians may gain time, but Russia has more resources and therefore delay will work in its favor as it allows them to bring more forces up, whereas Georgia has no more to generate. From a military standpoint the Russians have everything to gain by accepting if all they wanted was South Ossetia. If they don’t answer or equivocate, the Georgians gain at least this: they will have determined Russian intentions and have made the fact plain to all onlookers.

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:25 am 13. rickl:

Reuters is saying that the Russians have begun an operation to storm the Kodori Gorge.

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:27 am 14. Georgia has failed » The Ethereal Voice:

[...] Edit: Belmont Club provides its own dark update. [...]

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:28 am 15. alex:

What of the other bit players in the region: azerbaijan and armenia? Where do they ally? I know they hate each other and that armenia’s turkish and iranian borders are maintained by the russians but will they be comfortable without a buffer between them and mother russia?

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:29 am 16. Mike Sylwester:

Russia agreed to the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991. All 15 Soviet Republics became independent states, and for the past 18 years Russia has not taken any military action to threaten the independent sovereignty of any of those states.

There have been a few places along the border, where there have been ethnic conflicts that began long before the Soviet Union broke up (or even long before the Russian Empire broke up) and have continued to the present day. These are places where the borders do not correctly correspond ethnic distributions. In some of these cases, the dissatisfied population on the “wrong” side of the border is mostly Russians, but in other cases (e.g. South Ossetia) the problems involve primarily non-Russian groups.

Just as we do not want foreigners blaming the USA for all the problems in the world and just as we expect due credit for our own good intentions, the Russians do not want to be blamed for all the problems they must deal with and do expect credit for their good intentions.

Whenever the USA intervenes somewhere, the international howl goes up that we have purposely manipulated local grievances so that we can take over some area or some rich resource. For example, in Iraq we supposedly have provoked all the conflicts between the Shiites, Sunnis and Arabs and Kurds so that we can take over the whole country of Iraq and its petroleum wealth. And now furthermore we are going to take over Iran too!

Russia has no intention to take over Georgia. All the current events can be explained satisfactorily without having to resort to any paranoid belief in any such evil intention.

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:32 am 17. Cannoneer No. 4:

Russia, Georgia wage PR battle for hearts and minds

Russia and Georgia are fighting a propaganda war to shape public opinion at home and abroad with a constant stream of disputed facts about their conflict.

Both sides are employing Brussels-based public relations specialists who arranged a succession of conference calls for the international media in recent days, with senior government figures striving to put their side of the story across first.

Russia wants to convince the world of its role as an honest broker, reluctantly intervening against an out-of-control Georgian president whose forces have carried out ethnic cleansing against the Ossetian people.

Georgia in turn portrays itself as a plucky little country fighting off the resurgent Russian bear and suffering unfair Kremlin punishment on account of its drive to become a Western democracy and NATO ally.

Mike, do the Russians pay you?

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:51 am 18. trangbang68:

“Russia has no intention to take over Georgia. All the current events can be explained satisfactory without having to resort to any paranoid belief in any such evil intention.”
No doubt Mike. Russia has absolutely no history of malevolent intention toward their neighbors.
Did you take a siesta during the Cold War? Or was that just the evil Americans trying to establish global hegemony?

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:59 am 19. Cannoneer No. 4:

NATO chief says Russia used excessive force

Aug 10, 2008 - 9:00 am 20. Valerie:

“Russia has no intention to take over Georgia.”

If they don’t, it will be the first time in their imperialist history.

Russian Imperialism. It’s the real thing.

Aug 10, 2008 - 9:04 am 21. Streetwise Professor » The Devil Went Down to Georgia:

[...] situation is rapidly spiraling towards disaster, with historic foes Turkey and Russia facing off: In the Black Sea area, Russia is accusing Turkey of aiding Georgia. “Russian Izvestya newspapers [...]

Aug 10, 2008 - 9:07 am 22. Cannoneer No. 4:

US begins flying Georgian troops home from Iraq
By KIM GAMEL – 16 minutes ago

BAGHDAD (AP) — A senior U.S. military official says the Americans have begun flying Georgian troops home from Iraq after they requested help with transportation.

Georgia has called its 2,000 troops home from Iraq to help in the fighting against Russia in the breakaway province of South Ossetia and asked the U.S. military to help transport them.

The official says that the U.S. military has agreed to their request and “some flights have already begun.”

The official spoke on condition of anonymity Sunday because he was releasing the information ahead of a formal announcement.

Aug 10, 2008 - 9:13 am 23. Tony:

If Jimmy Carter were President right now, he’d call our athletes home from the Olympics in protest, like he did when the Soviets invaded Afghanistan.

History is getting so interesting, we need a War News Network to keep us informed. Failing that, thank God for Prof. Wretchard and the Belmont Club.

This incident might explain Poland’s reticence over putting our Star Wars missiles in their country, eh?

Since it’s looking like there’s no way in hell that the American military will (or can?) do anything here, now is the time for teh world to see what Obama’s vaunted “world community” can do. It will be a salutary lesson to see what happens when the Yanks don’t ride to the rescue.

Speaking of the Cold War, remember 1979? Russians in Afghanistan, 50,000 Cuban troops in Angola fighting our allies South Africa and Rhodesia, communists in Central America … ahhh, the bad old days. Nothing’s new under the sun.

Aug 10, 2008 - 9:18 am 24. Tony:

Hmm… “the Americans have begun flying Georgian troops home…” wonder if they’ll have F-15’s covering the transports. They are flying into a war zone.

Aug 10, 2008 - 9:20 am 25. wretchard:

Cold War fights are long games. Russia went into Hungary and Afghanistan. Is it there still? The important thing right now is to determine whether Russia intends to attack Georgia proper. Right now the US has threatened ‘grave and lasting damage’ to the relationship. I don’t know what that means. It hasn’t threatened military action. Yet.

Aug 10, 2008 - 9:21 am 26. Niko:

Its pretty obvious the US has given Russia an offer it can’t refuse while Israel is showing the Ruskies that payback is a bitch (anti tank missiles used by Hezbollah) and is supplying serious technical know how.

Which leads to the question why? I suspect a deal has been done under the table. So what does the US get? Russia not getting its nose out of joint over Israel hitting Iran and one might suspect, putting Turkey back in its box.
Although an ally, the ‘Republic’ might be getting too big for its shoes.

So who looses? The average Joe playing out regional politics.

Aug 10, 2008 - 9:27 am 27. mika.:

Russian Imperialism = Roll back of Jihadism
American Imperialism = Push forward of Jihadism

Them are the facts, as I see it.

Aug 10, 2008 - 9:34 am 28. Lugh Lampfhota:

The time for grave and lasting damage to US-Russia relationships is long past. Russia’s sale of weapons and nuclear infrastructure to Iran, Russia’s diplomatic cover for Iran’s quest for nuclear weapons, Russia’s sales of fighters and warships to Venezuala, Russian oil blackmail against sundry nations and Russian bomber patrols abroad clearly point to a Russian enemy.

Weak words from the US and the EU will have the same effect on Russia as they have had on Iran. The West no longer has the will to use force to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, Al-Qaeda from setting up shop in Pakistan nor Russia from gobbling up it’s former empire. An Obama presidency would signal the beginning of the end of the West as a force to be reckoned with.

It may be the end of history in the West but others see opportunity. Westerners are too busy gazing into their iPhones to see what is happening in the world around them. Thugs are looking to control the future by controlling hydrocarbons. The West is sleepwalking towards doom.

Aug 10, 2008 - 9:52 am 29. Cannoneer No. 4:

The Devil Went To Georgia

we have here a naked war of aggression that is all about seizing land, oil, and other resources. I await the outrage of the progressives, along with a staunch call to defend freedom and freedom of choice of the natives. I won’t, however, be holding my breath.

Aug 10, 2008 - 9:54 am 30. iconoclast:

Arguing that Russia’s military intervention to protect South Ossetia is just a perlude to Russia ruling Europe in a few years is absurd.

Isn’t that the truth! I am having a hard time caring immensely about this. Saakashvili brought this on himself by launching the attack, just as the Chechnyans brought the second war upon themselves by allowing their Islamist fanatics to attack Dagestan in the hopes of creating another Sharia-dominated government.

Maybe RF will take over Georgia, maybe not. And if they do conquer Georgia, will they keep it or will they just force replacement of the nitwit who ordered the attack on them? No one knows. But to speculate that S. Ossetia is the beginning of conquering Europe is just insane. Maybe we should consider that Russia does not follow the (idiotic and sefl-defeating) paradigm of American military strategy which encourages the creation of safe havens from which to base further attacks.

Ultimately, this is NOT our concern.

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:04 am 31. JBean:

Blow to hopes of oil pipeline security

“the conflict in Georgia will rock confidence in the security of the pipelines already dented last week when Kurdish separatists claimed responsibility for an explosion on the Turkish section of the BTC pipeline that halted deliveries, depriving world oil markets of about 1 per cent of supplies.

Kaan Nazli, the director of emerging markets at Medley Global Advisors, said prolongation of military hostilities would “deal a devastating blow to prospects of maintaining a safe non-Russian route [across the Caucasus] for Caspian and central Asian oil and gas”.

Has one of Russia’s goals already been accomplished?

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:12 am 32. Cannoneer No. 4:

Cyber War, Defcon 5 for Georgia

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:13 am 33. S:

The russians rolled into hungry under cover of suez no? Very intertesting that the event itself defined the end of the British Empire. So many similiarites here. Most fascinacting is watching the disconnect between the political and the economic. Watch the 5th fleet…

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:13 am 34. Mike Sylwester:

Wretchard:
“Russia is welcome to South Ossetia. Even the Georgians have apparently given that up. ”
————

There are several possible resolutions to this problem.

One possible resolution would be that Georgia completely gives up South Ossetia, which unite with North Ossetia as an independent country or as a culturally autonomous republic of the Russian Federation. I think that the Ossetians themselves might prefer the latter variant.

A second possible resolution is that the Georgians would offer the Ossetians satisfactory guarantees of cultural autonomy within Georgia. The guarantee would include: 1) government financial support for schools, mass media and cultural institutions (libraries, festivals, etc.) in the Ossetian language, 2) legal rights to conduct personal legal business in the Ossetian language (certifications, registration, lawsuits, trials, etc.), 3) local legislatures that conduct their debates and business in the Ossetian language, 4) police forces that are manned with locally propotionate ethnic personnel, 5) legal abilities to limit immigration of Georgians into the area, 6) easy cultural communication and exchange between South and North Ossetia, and 7) Georgian enforcement of a “political correctness” discouraging insults and denigration of Ossetians. In return, all Ossetian children must study the Georgian language throughout their schooling.

It is likely that the Georgians have burned the bridges to that second resolution, but they still can try to persuade the Ossetians to stay. The Georgians still can argue to the Ossetians that South Ossetia is part of the Georgian geographic region, that it include a large Georgian population, that it has been primarily a participant in Georgian history, and that the Georgians have long experience in the governmental administration of Ossetia.

One factor that makes reconciliation possible is that the Russian language is a common language spoken fluently by absolutely all educated citizens who are middle-aged and older and at least functionally by the rest of the citizens. As a practical matter, any Ossetian in Georgia who has a serious problem can deal with it if he speaks Russian.

And one other factor that makes reconciliation and staying possible is the Russian military presence, which might still help control the social developments and prevent extremism in a beneficial manner. This is a factor that Georgia itself should recognize and appreciate. If Georgia wants to hold onto South Ossetia, it must relearn how to play nicely with the Russians.

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:15 am 35. Mike Sylwester:

Another good reason for the South Ossetians to consider staying in Georgia is that Georgia has developed such a good relationship with the USA. Would you rather become part of Russia, or would you prefer to be part of a country that is becoming an ally of the USA and perhaps even a member of NATO?

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:28 am 36. Steve Rose:

@John Samford
“So now my question is; ‘If Turkey sending weapons to Georgia is an act of war, what is Russia sending weapons to Iran? A Yard sale?’”

Now I got the impression that the military equipment provided by CIA and the United States to the Sudan rebel in 1996 was a friendly gesture of the peace-loving west?

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:28 am 37. Steve Rose:

Wait, now I remembered Iraq and who armed Saddam when he fights against Iran, too.

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:30 am 38. hdgreene:

Mike says: Russia agreed to the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991. All 15 Soviet Republics became independent states, and for the past 18 years Russia has not taken any military action to threaten the independent sovereignty of any of those states.

Well, this is the year Nineteen after which comes the year Zero, on Vlad the Putin’s Calendar. I hope not but there are signs. And tank tracks.

It is good to get the South Ossetian point of view, though. But why would the Georgians obliterate Tskhinvali when the Russians are so much better at that sort of thing?

The gyre is widening, but Putin’s the guy to close it. You say Mere anarchy is loosed on the world? Well, there ain’t nothing mere about it. And as Reuters would put it: one man’s anarchy is another man’s emerging global consensus.

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:39 am 39. Susan Katz Keating:

We know this much about Moscow: It never deploys without overarching intent. Hungary, 1956; Czechoslovakia, 1968; Afhsnistan, 1979. And now, Georgia.

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:40 am 40. NahnCee:

Why now? WHile Bush is still President.

As someone noted above, if Putin had waited three months he’d either be facing peacenik Obama or a newly-elected McCain who might not want to go there in the first month of his Presidency.

Is Georgia one of those icy countries that shut down in November? Or does Putin want it firmly under control so that he can freeze out Europe come the blizzard season?

Frankly, while I’m willing to go to the mat for Georgia or Poland or any of those ex-USSR countries, I’d love to see Europe freeze for a long long time and do absolutely nothing about it.

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:43 am 41. Andrew:

“Saakashvili brought this on himself by launching the attack…”

The blind acceptance of the casus belli set forth by the Russians is puzzling to me. It’s as though anything that happened before two days ago never actually happened. Strange.

I uess this is part of

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:43 am 42. JBean:

Mike says:

“And one other factor that makes reconciliation and staying possible is the Russian military presence, which might still help control the social developments and prevent extremism in a beneficial manner. This is a factor that Georgia itself should recognize and appreciate. If Georgia wants to hold onto South Ossetia, it must relearn how to play nicely with the Russians.”

Feeling nostalgic for the USSR are we?  Play nicely or join the 60 million or so that didn’t?  Good times, eh, Mike?

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:47 am 43. Lugh Lampfhota:

Seems that Putin thinks Bush is irrelevant doesn’t it Nahn-cee?

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:47 am 44. CactusTex:

If U. S. A.’s hand is forced in this, I think POTUS Bush will deliver an ultimatum. Something like Russia you’ve got 24 hours to get out of Georgia, after that I have ordered the USAF to decimate Russian positions and material located in Georgia’s soverign territory.
That way the Russians will decide if they really want to fight it out.
It’s not too late yet. Time is running out though.
The eyes of the “New Europe” are upon us.
It is very important to keep these free nations free, and to let the “Old Europe” know that they’re now a luxury and nonessential compared to the USs’ allies that will actually commit combat troops where and when needed.
Just my .02 cents worth.

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:48 am 45. Herr Morgenholz:

I am having a hard time caring immensely about this. Saakashvili brought this on himself by launching the attack,

Yes, those Georgians… Going into S. Osettia to stop the mortar and artillery barrages from those peace loving Soviet, er, Russian, er Osettian peasants. Lucky for the SOs that the 58th Army was in N. Osettia with their engines all warmed up, eh?

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:59 am 46. E. Nigma:

Perhaps the key to “now” rather than “later” is the most obvious, yet, the one that isn’t spoken of by the TV talking heads.
The price of oil on the world market has been trending down for weeks. As others have mentioned, there is a key pipeline passing through Georgia that is not controlled by Mother Russia.
I would guess that the price of oil goes up tomorrow morning on the world oil markets, which may be one of the key strategies of this adventure by the Russians. Maybe they can coordinate with their Iranian friends for an incident in the Straights of Hormuz, and oil goes back to +$140/barrel.
Falling oil prices: Good for US
Rising oil prices: Good for Russia
It might be that simple.

Aug 10, 2008 - 11:02 am 47. Akatsukami:

“Maybe we should consider that Russia does not follow the (idiotic and sefl-defeating) paradigm of American military strategy which encourages the creation of safe havens from which to base further attacks.”

True, the Russians do not create safe havens. They create deserts, which they call peace.

“Ultimately, this is NOT our concern.”

Absolutely. Why should we be concerned about a quarrel in a far-away country between people of whom we know nothing?

Aug 10, 2008 - 11:02 am 48. NahnCee:

Lugh, yeah, that’s what it looks like. I think Vlad’s wrong, if that’s his assessment. But then I also think Vlad’s a psychopath so there’s no telling what he’s convinced himself of in his own little beet-red world.

Aug 10, 2008 - 11:07 am 49. ChrisVJ:

Irony,

If the power brokers of the East wanted a pliant appeasing President if the USA they may just have upset their own apple cart.

I’d guess that naked displays of aggression might just persuade many voters to choose the promise of a firmer hand at the helm.

Aug 10, 2008 - 11:11 am 50. cjm:

this situation absolutely does not call for direct involvement by the u.s. except possibly flying in relief materiel. much better to help the georgians sink a few russian ships and subs, shoot down a bunch of jets, and smoke a few dozen tanks.

good time for the chechens to make some mischief too.

Aug 10, 2008 - 11:13 am 51. Final Historian:

“Absolutely. Why should we be concerned about a quarrel in a far-away country between people of whom we know nothing?”

It amazes me to this day that people can hold this opinion. But then again, nothing should truly amaze me in this mad, mad, mad world.

I don’t know what to hope for: that you are smart enough to realize how it does matter, and are merely sympathetic to Russia and/or hostile to the United States and its allies; or instead that you really believe that the 21st century world is not connected like it never has been before, and that the events in Georgia right now could have an impact on the rest of the world.

Aug 10, 2008 - 11:15 am 52. Aether:

http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2008/08/georgian-minister-we-wont-cede-to.html

“”We’re changing strategies and tactics, but we will not give up,” Georgian Reintegration Minister Temur Yakobashvili told Ynet Sunday following reports that Russia expanded its bombing blitz against neighboring Georgia while Georgian troops pulled out of the capital of the contested province of South Ossetia under heavy Russian shelling.

Yakobashvili refuted the reports of a Georgian pullout, saying the troops were merely “regrouping” and “improving their positions”.

“It must be understood that South Ossetia is an area that does not have clear boundaries and contains Georgian enclaves,” he said, “as far as we’re concerned, we haven’t retreated but rather took up different positions.”

Echoes of Korea… to paraphrase the Marine officer, who’s name I do not recall “…We’re not retreating, we’re advancing in another direction”

Aug 10, 2008 - 11:15 am 53. cjm:

if you want to make the russians think about things, tell them we are going to re-milatarize germany and japan.

Aug 10, 2008 - 11:16 am 54. Aether:

ChrisVJ:

“If the power brokers of the East wanted a pliant appeasing President if the USA they may just have upset their own apple cart.

I’d guess that naked displays of aggression might just persuade many voters to choose the promise of a firmer hand at the helm.”

Agreed, I believe this event will swing many votes to McCain’s favor… In these interesting times, any halfway sane American would prefer to have a proven, trained Cold Warrior in office then would prefer to have the neophyte “Mr. Hopeful Change” or is it “Mr Changeful Hope”? I can never remember.

Aug 10, 2008 - 11:22 am 55. RAH:

This is an engineered invasion by Russia under the excuse of protecting South Ossetia/Russian citizens. This is a classic causa belli to protect Russian citizens by allowing S. Ossetian’s and Abkazia’s to get Russian passports.

Russia has been fomenting trouble ever since the BZC pipeline was approved and construction started This pipeline allows oil and gas to flow from the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean Sea. They bombed the oil terminal and the oil tankers and the shipbuilding facilities in Poti, the seaport on the Black Sea. Russian has bombed the pumping facilities of the BZC pipeline in this attack.

Turkey had an attack by Turkish PPK Kurds on the BZC pipeline in Ezbrium on Aug 6th, 2008. It damaged a valve and over 12,000 bbl has been lost and the pressure has run down from the pump in Baku. This pipeline was activated on 2006 and Russia has been causing increased problems from 2006 in Georgia. The pipeline is supposed to get to full commercial production in 2009. This is a total end run around Russia monopoly on Europe gas and oil pipelines.

Russia has been playing at economic oil warfare for several years. Turkmenistan had a change in leadership and then went from selling to Western oil companies to giving the contracts to Gazprom the Russian company. Medevev just got the Libya oil contracts.

Russia has been going after oil in the Arctic and claiming territory there now that the Artic Ocean is opening near Russia.

Russian also has the original imperialistic ambitions to reclaim the Republics it lost in 1991. Notice that they now claim that Ukraine has helped Georgia by selling weapons. Russia tried to get their puppets installed in Ukraine and Georgia elections and lost both times.

This is an opportunity to get Georgia back under Russian control. Next will be the Ukraine. S. Ossetia may have initiated this conflict by artillery against Georgian villages knowing that Russia had built up the military presence with over 150 tanks on the other side of the Roki Tunnel. Somewhat like little brother taking on his enemy with big brother standing behind him.

S. Ossetia is the excuse it has no value, but Georgia pipeline does, plus it stops a Western ally on Russia’s flank. Russian control over this area allows direct route to Turkey and control of the straights.

Do you think an Obama administration will do anything about Russia taking Georgia, Ukraine and then Turkey? NATO is a paper kitten and has no strength other than America.

Georgia thought this may be they best time with Bush still in power to stir things up. They obviously hope to take S Ossetia fast and get control of the Roki Tunnel in the Georgian side to prevent Russian armor. They were not fast enough.

Aug 10, 2008 - 11:29 am 56. Cannoneer No. 4:

Wounded pride ignites an accidental war

Russia has been deliberately provoking Georgia for years by supporting Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and imposing a sweeping trade embargo.

this war is more than Russian revenge for Kosovo. It is about Georgia’s entire pro-western attitude and its determination to join the Nato alliance – encouraged by the US and effectively guaranteed by the Nato summit in Bucharest in April. It is intended to prove that countries such as Georgia and Ukraine are far too unreliable to be allowed into Nato. It is also intended to demonstrate that only Russia has the capacity to enforce order – however brutally – on the territory of the former USSR.

It is also about respect. Mr Putin is obsessed with winning back the regard he believes his country is denied by the patronising leaders of the US and EU. He resents Mr Saakashvili, particularly. When the two first met after the Georgian president was elected in 2004, one of Mr Putin’s top advisers said he had “never heard anyone talk to my president with such lack of respect”.

Thugs and mafioso kill people they feel have dissed them.

Aug 10, 2008 - 11:30 am 57. Aether:

http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2008/08/russian-war-ships-sail-for-georgia.html

key commentary: “Ukraine may bar Russia from Black Sea

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry has announced that Russian ships returning from the Georgian shore may be refused permission to enter its territorial waters in the Black Sea.

The ministry says Ukraine doesn’t want to be involved in the conflict between Russia and Georgia.”

Did those ships just lose their home port ?

Irregardless, It appears that the Russia’s neighbors are getting nervous… hopefully the Euro’s are feeling the same way. And hopefully they’ll begin to mobilize, after they’re done peeing in their pants.

Aug 10, 2008 - 11:35 am 58. Susan Katz Keating:

In response to the folks above who seem to think the U.S. could/would rattle swords at Moscow over this: think again. The only reason Putin (yes, I believe he is calling the shots) gave the OK on attacking Georgia is he knew the U.S. would do absolutely nothing. True, we are allied with Georgia. But we also need Russia, and we’re not going to gum up the complicated alliance by intervening in South Ossetia.

Aug 10, 2008 - 11:44 am 59. Eggplant:

CactusTex said:

“If U. S. A.’s hand is forced in this, I think POTUS Bush will deliver an ultimatum. Something like Russia you’ve got 24 hours to get out of Georgia, after that I have ordered the USAF to decimate Russian positions and material located in Georgia’s soverign territory.”

What’s our best possible gain versus potential loss if we get involved in this thing? What’s the probability that we’ll get sucked into a regional war if we involve our military? Are you going to bet $500 on a pair of eights when the other guy seems to have a full house?

Aug 10, 2008 - 11:44 am 60. Talnik:

Perhaps this was engineered by Bush and Putin to assure McCain’s victory in November, thus delaying–perhaps forever–the Edenic Age of Aquarius Paradise that Obamba would have brought to us and the world.

Aug 10, 2008 - 11:51 am 61. Aether:

Also, from the same above referencd VineYardSaker posting:

“Referring to the shooting down of a Russian Tu-22 bomber over Georgia, the Defence Ministry says the Georgian military would have needed a C-200 anti-aircraft system to carry out the attack.

According to Russia, the Georgian army did not possess such equipment before the conflict.

Only Russia and Ukraine are armed with C-200 anti-aircraft systems, which is leading Russian defence officials to suspect that Kiev may have sold the equipment to Georgia.
Commentary: info from Jane’s seems to dispute this version.”

http://www.janes.com/extract/jmr2004/jmr01140.html

Whiskey and RAH may be correct that this thing will expand in scope. I hope not, I think the Russians would be very foolish to go there.

Even with their military draw down over the past decade, the Euro’s are not exactly paper tigers, they simply need an injection of backbone.

Also, I still believe this was a spoiling attack on the part of Georgia and her Allies to prempt the forseen Russian offensive.

Question is “What’s in it for Georgia?”

Answer being that They’ll become “made” members of NATO. As current events indicate, the Georgians want and need NATO membership very badly.

Aug 10, 2008 - 11:52 am 62. JBean:

RAH: Good assessment, although I’m not sure Russia has damaged the pipeline, and she may not need to; simply maintain a controlling presence in Georgia, have surrogates (e.g. PKK) continue to sabotage the operation, proving to suppliers and customers alike that it’s a risky operation, compared to Russia’s.

Iran will be more than happy to ally herself with this game, and Turkey, which shows signs of regression to Islamism over secularism, may not be difficult to persuade with threats, rather than outright agression.

Aug 10, 2008 - 11:54 am 63. Biff:

I’ve been ambivalent about some of Thomas Barnett’s thinking, but he has an interesting blog post about the current mayhem at http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2008/08/answering_the_inevitable_quest.html

Aug 10, 2008 - 11:58 am 64. Molon Labe:

Maybe Georgia was the price paid for Russian complicity in the pending action against Iran.

Aug 10, 2008 - 12:01 pm 65. Sandra M:

>>History is getting so interesting, we need a War News Network to keep us informed. Failing that, thank God for Prof. Wretchard and the Belmont Club.

Amen to that. Amazing that I have 399 cable stations available to me on DirecTV (excluding the premium channels) and half of Fox News Channel’s coverage is of true crime stories which interest me not at all. And I consider CNN as reliable as say Newsweek.

In 1979, Newsweek’s top foreign correspondent, Arnaud de Borchgrave, was told by an Israeli Mossad agent that the Soviets were going to invade Afghanistan. The editors back in New York scoffed that the “peace-loving” Soviets would never do such a thing and spiked (killed) the story. de Borchgrave left Newsweek and couldn’t get work from anyone other than Reader’s Digest for a time. So, he wrote a novel THE SPIKE. Eventually, he became editor-in-chief of the Washington Times, assembled a first-class team of journalists, many with great foreign correspondent credentials and began scooping the Washington Post regularly.

Bush is at the Olympics. What’s happening behind the scenes? What are Gates and Cheney doing?

At their request, we’re flying battle-hardened Georgians home to fight for their country. Our marines just had training exercises in Georgia. Russia is a huge nation with a huge military. So was Xerxe’s Persian empire (that “little country” Obama referred to) The 300 fought in a narrow pass that offset the Persian superiority in terms of troops. From descriptions, the Georgians seem to have that kind of topographical advantage.

Our Special Forces fought and won a war n Afghanistan against the Russians much like this one. If Putin fears embarrassment, he may put a stop to this war. The serious wounding of the Russian general in charge is a plus for our side.

>>if you want to make the russians think about things, tell them we are going to re-militarize germany and japan.

LOL. Excellent suggestion.

Aug 10, 2008 - 12:12 pm 66. Aether:

I don’t believe the US will go to war directly with Russia. The US Military is rapidly expanding Train and Equip missions with US Allies, which is exactly what they’ve been doing with the Georgians for the past ?? years.

If anything, the US will work though proxies to hamstring and bog the Russian down in protracted insurgency, Just as the Russian and it’s proxies have been doing to the Americans in Iraq. What comes around can definitely go around.

It stands to reason that the same skills sets utilized for COIN training can be utilized to TRAIN insurgents.

I’m Curious, what is the background of the 1000 marines that were, until recently, posted in Tbilisi?

Aug 10, 2008 - 12:14 pm 67. Lifeofthemind:

Georgian naval vessel sunk

Aug 10, 2008 - 12:21 pm 68. ukdude:

Come on guys, you may have succumbed to all this CNN brainwashing but just take a look at the facts:

1. Russians were present as peacekeepers in Ossetia over 15 years and kept the piece successfully.
2. Ossetians voted to break away from Georgia.
3. Georgians started the conflict this time having moved into Ossetia.
4. Ossetians are fleeing to Russia, not to Georgia – and to draw some WWII parallels, nobody was fleeing to Germany when they invaded Europe but people were running in exactly the opposite direction.

Russia is clearly not an agressor here, there is absolutely no evidence that Russians want to invade Georgia or any other country. And US really does not give a damn about Georgia, Ossetia or anybody – it is only a playing card to put some pressure on Russia.

Aug 10, 2008 - 12:26 pm 69. RAH:

Most of the BZT pipeline is undergound. I believe the bombing was targeted at a pumping station. Please note that Russia is trying to target communications. The Gori bombing was supposedly targeted at a TV tower but they hit the apartments instead in error.

They tried to hit a cell communications near Azbkhazia/ Poti I heard, I also heard that they tried to get the Tbilisi communications tower. If they can shut off Saakashvili access to western media this will go easier for the Russians. Already cyber atatcks on the internet and they got into The Defense Ministry and Interior for Georgia.

This is a classic attack against Communications, Command and Control. I read the article about the completion of the railroad head into Ochamchire in Azkhabia with the Railroad Troops so they could get the armor in and this was completed on July 31, 2008.

Ukraines action’s to deny port facilities to The Russian vessels taking action against Georgia was surprising but that is just words. How are they going to enforce this?

Aug 10, 2008 - 12:28 pm 70. slade:

Somewhere in the past three posts Fukuyama was mentioned.

I too read End of History – about ten years ago. I took notes as was my habit back then. But they are gone now. [My reading notes - including a lot of popular math and physics - were stored in leather CD carriers that were stolen. I have often wondered about the look on their faces when the music cases that weren’t were opened up.]

What I recall is that Fukuyama stumbled over Nietzsche. Who doesn’t? “The old curmudgeon” was acknowledged, but in Fukuyama’s thesis, the individuals’ will to power would be tamed by the greater personal freedoms under liberal democracy. In other words, more of a judgment call than a rigorous philosophical proof.

Which is fine. But I also recall reading Fukuyama’s post 9-11 WSJ essay in which he defended his thesis, but stumbled again when addressing the subject of Islamic terrorism and the future of liberal democracy within the context of the Islamic religion. The way I recall the op-ed was that his explanation was not.

I have always thought it relates to the issue of “rational players.” Putin is a player in the Nietzsche mold. He will never fit within the evolutionary scheme developed by Fukuyama. Neither will the Islamists.

Theories derive from pattern recognition – identifying order out of the chaos. History, like electricity which is driven by impurities within the substrate, is at least, if not more so, driven by the exceptions, the outliers, that and those which fall outside the patterns.

All of which is a little – or a lot – ethereal. But it is the reason that I remember – without my notes! – for not putting much credence in the “theory”. What validity can be identified is of too narrow a range of applicability to be of much use.

Aug 10, 2008 - 12:35 pm 71. Doug:

Russian Ground Forces Assault Vital Georgian City

Russian troops advanced on the city of Gori in central Georgia on Sunday night, for the first time directly assaulting a Georgian city with ground forces.

Looks like a No-Kill Zone

Aug 10, 2008 - 12:46 pm 72. John Samford:

“What was Putin thinking, doing this now? He couldn’t wait three months, or for the spring?”

TmjUtah, what I see is perfect timing, a great cover story and a very well laid and prepared for plan.
Right now the Media ( which is a place of refuge for low order minds) is busy with the worlds longest running infomercial for steroids ( AKA the Olympics), an election campaign where their chose candidate is going down faster then a 20$ crack ho, and just to top it off, we are entering a political window where U. S> military action against Iran has either no or good repercussions against this administration.
The war power act allows the President to conduct military operations against anyone he chooses to for 60 days after notifying Congress. Congress can then demand a report from the administration within 30 days. After that 90 days Congress either has to vote yeh or nah on a war resolution. Check the calender and see how many days it is until the election. Congress just left for a 5 week beak to campaign. The air campaign against Iran could be over in 5 weeks. I don’t think so, but it is possible.
So now is the best time for Russia to do a little armed robbery. The Cops are either eating donuts, watching the game or investigating a hubcap theft.

The Kosovo story is silly. Granted DoS opened that Pandora’s box, but look at it for a minute. What nation on this planet DOESN’T have a small group that wants to be their own country? So if Russia gives away passports, they can invade anywhere? How about Mexico reclaiming California? Or England Normandy?
I could go on, the list is almost endless.

It looks like a return to the 19th century, with every nation eyeing it’s neighbor. Either in greed or fear, depending on relative size.
It will be amusing to see how the left deals with a return to the age of might makes right.
US out of the UN. UN out of the US.

Soviet doctrine says that the best tank terrain is that which has the least anti-tank weapons. That is a way of saying that the way to avoid what is strong is to attack what is weak.

By the time the Media finishes with is coverage of the Steroid Convention, the Russians will have a suitable cover story in place, the Dismemberment of Georgia will be a done deal and the Russians will be preparing for the next campaign.

Aug 10, 2008 - 12:50 pm 73. ukdude:

Russians giving away passports?

How successful do you think Mexica will be in California with giving away their passports?

Do you think if Mexica then will invade California, people will run to Mexico for shelter?

Interesting how conveniently people ignore facts if they are not in support of their theories.

Aug 10, 2008 - 1:03 pm 74. RAH:

I really would like to know about the flying the Georgian troops on US transport. Were they given the 132 HumVees they were using? How much escort are they given. Would the Russians make the mistake of firing on US jets?

I doubt the Russian would be that stupid, neither would they say we are a belligerant in this war just for flying in to Georgia to delivere the Georgian troops.

Kind of a shame , I sure would like to see some Russian fighter jets splashed.

Aug 10, 2008 - 1:05 pm 75. Boghie:

If Turkey commits, does NATO commit???

Weak horse comments aside, Turkey is a member of NATO.

“Moscow is feeling its oats and not shy about warning Turkey off.”

Where would a threat on Turkey leave us and the rest of NATO?

Aug 10, 2008 - 1:19 pm 76. cjm:

ukdude, the surrender line forms on the left; there is a place in it for you and your entire country of socialist ball washers.

Aug 10, 2008 - 1:21 pm 77. cjm:

turkey help out a nato ally ?! guffaw. they sure helped in OIF.

Aug 10, 2008 - 1:22 pm 78. JBean:

From the AFP, on debate at UN Security Council:

“And in highly contentious exchanges with his Russian counterpart Vietaly Churkin reminiscent of the Cold War, (US Ambassador) Khalilzad accused Moscow of seeking “regime change in Tbilisi” and of waging “a campaign of terror” in Georgia.

He said Churkin cited comments made by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in a confidential telephone conversation with his US counterpart Condoleezza Rice suggesting that the president of Georgia “must go“.

Russian forces are actually impeding the withdrawal of Georgian forces from South Ossetia,” (US Ambassador) Khalilzad said. “This is an unconscionable effort to continue the conflict and prevent the Georgians from taking concrete steps to de-escalate the situation.”

Aug 10, 2008 - 1:23 pm 79. ukdude:

cjm – better on the left than with idiot rednecks like you.

Aug 10, 2008 - 1:24 pm 80. Phineas Worthington:

Can we stop giving aid stolen from American taxpayers to the Russians now?

Aug 10, 2008 - 1:28 pm 81. Roy Lofquist:

Wretchard is correct that we won’t know anything for sure for at least 48 hours. I stress “at least”. I am praying that this thing ends quickly and peacefully. I have my doubts.

I was born in 1943. I remember the gold stars in the windows. I remember my uncles telling stories about how barbaric the Russians were. I remember watching the Berlin Airlift on TV and on the newsreels that were a staple at the movie theaters. I remember my father receiving a letter saying he was subject to recall because of Korea. I remember my hero Ted Williams being drafted to fight Russian MIG’s. I remember ducking under our desks at school about once a week. Those drills were more common than fire drills. I remember watching the Cuban Missile Crisis from a base in Peshawar, Pakistan. You folks have no idea how dangerous that situation was. I remember being fired upon by a MIG based at an airfield in Georgia. I remember a night of drinking with two guys at the NCO club who were on their way to Vietnam. They were shot down in an A-26 about three weeks later. I remember many nights visiting with our neighbor Barbara. Husband Ed was away driving a hot stovepipe over North Vietnam.

Like I said, I’m nervous.

Aug 10, 2008 - 1:41 pm 82. Rob73:

If the railroad (and accompanying road) from “mainland” Russia runs down through Sokhumi to Och’amch’ire, could someone explain to me the significance of the Kodori Gorge for the expected attack on Poti? It looks to me, from looking at the maps, that the Russians can flood into Poti overland w/out needing to take the Gorge. . . .I’m probably missing something, so thanks in advance to whoever clears me up.

Aug 10, 2008 - 1:51 pm 83. JBean:

No, no, ukdude, you have to master the US leftist lexicon: “neocons’ are the international war-mongers who just love war for the sake of war, while “rednecks” are, well, anyone who owns a gun, thinks of owning a gun, or doesn’t think it’s a bad idea to own a gun or to defend oneself against people who want to steal your property or kill you.

“Rednecks” are usually portrayed as so obtuse and neanderthal-like that they wouldn’t care or know where the nation of Georgia is, but they do, somehow, in spite of their limited intellectual abilities (as the leftist narrative goes), instinctively know what a “surrender-monkey” sounds like.

Let me know if you need a clarification on what a “surrender-monkey” might be.

And, oh, cheers!

Aug 10, 2008 - 1:52 pm 84. NahnCee:

ukdude – you’re stupid

If you had some incisive intelligence to share like Wretchard does, it’s one thing to comment on events tht are totally no concern of you or your moribund little country.

But since you evidently don’t, please take your juvenile and uninformed snark back to London where they’re probably sitting down to make a secret backdoor plan to help the Russians out. It’ll be called “Softly Softly Redux”.

Aug 10, 2008 - 1:54 pm 85. Doug:

Didn’t know they had Embeds!
– Chaos reigns in Georgian rebel city after battle
—
““It’s terrible. We don’t know what’s going on,” one elderly woman told a Reuters reporter who entered the city with Russian troops.
“I haven’t seen anything like this in my whole life.”“

Aug 10, 2008 - 2:01 pm 86. buddy larsen:

Yes, ukdude, you list a few laughably fraudulent bullet points, then observe that we ‘refuse to let facts interfere with our theories’ –and as if that alone is not enough comic irony, one of your ‘facts’ is that USA cares nothing about the fate of other peoples, as if it’s not a ‘fact’ that except for ‘idiot rednecks’ who care about other peoples, your snotty little propaganda smirks would be written in German.

Aug 10, 2008 - 2:09 pm 87. Konyok:

I’m more confused than ever.
Our friends Sylwester and Ukdude make much of the fact that refugees from S. Ossetia are going north into Russia.
But, if the Roki Tunnel is the only possible route and we know that Russian tank columns are entering S. Ossetia on this circuitous two lane road, how are the reported 30,000 refugees getting through?
This number of refugees clogging the road would be almost as much of an obstacle to an orderly Russian advance as Georgian special forces would be.
Does anybody here believe that the Russian military is humanitarian enough, or even competent enough, to allow the unorganized movement of that many civilians against their line of march?
Either the number quoted, 30,000 refugees – almost half of the population of S. Ossetia – is greatly exaggerated, or a humanitarian crisis is unfolding as these 1000’s of people are forced off the road by the Russian advance.

Aug 10, 2008 - 2:09 pm 88. wretchard:

Russia hasn’t stopped the attack despite the Georgian white flag, according to the latest reports. This is very worrisome. The next 24 hours will be critical.

Aug 10, 2008 - 2:12 pm 89. Doug:

Mətušélaḥ said…
The Washington Post
…or Tbilisi Post?

If you were running the largest newspaper in the capital city of the world’s sole superpower, which foreign-policy issues would you select as your top priorities? The war in Iraq? Terrorism? Nuclear terrorism, something that could change the American way of life forever? Energy policy, which is already severely affecting many Americans’ lives? If you don’t like these, what about China, India, Iran, North Korea, the Middle East peace process or climate change?

The Washington Post’s answer to this question may surprise you: it’s Georgia (the one ruled from Tbilisi, not Atlanta). In barely more than five months since the beginning of January, Lexis-Nexis shows that the Post’s editorial pages have carried at least nineteen separate contributions focused on Georgia and its relations with Russia—almost one per week—if one combines editorials (seven) and opinion pieces (twelve).[1] The vast majority of these (but not all) have the same thesis: that Georgia, under grave threat from Russia, must be rescued by the United States, usually through accelerated membership in NATO and American pressure on weak-kneed Europeans.
…http://www.russiablog.orghmmm,..
(Mat sees Russia saving the World from the Muzzies)

Aug 10, 2008 - 2:13 pm 90. RIch Rostrom:

Final Historian: Akatsukami repeated the exact words used by Neville Chamberlain in 1938, just before going to Munich. Do you think maybe the intent might be ironic?

Mika: Then why is Russia providing Iran with nuclear and missile technology?

Iconoclast: The casus belli for the Russian invasion of Chechnya was the “terrorist” apartment house bombings of September 1999, almost certainly staged by Russian intelligence.

Aug 10, 2008 - 2:20 pm 91. trangbang68:

…..”entered the city with Russian troops” .So now Al Reuters is Pravda Reuters; always the first with the worst; propaganda for fun and profit. I wonder when we can expect to see grim photos of a Russian ambulance shot up by the Georgian heavies.
The two best post quotes from our running dialog are John Samford’s”…the media, the refuge of low order minds” and whoever said “the devil went down to Georgia”
The one advantage of extended conflict is we won’t have to read anymore the soul wrenching melodrama of prissy Johnnie Edwards.

Aug 10, 2008 - 2:25 pm 92. Doug:

Your Dad knew there was little risk flying in that B-17, Buddy!

Aug 10, 2008 - 2:26 pm 93. buddy larsen:

”The casus belli for the Russian invasion of Chechnya was the “terrorist” apartment house bombings of September 1999, almost certainly staged by Russian intelligence” says Rich Rostrum. Might add that uncovering that story is precisely what reporter Anna Politkovskaya was doing when she was shot to death in the elevator of her Moscow apartment building. But then Putin & ukdude will tell the shooters were CIA, trying to make Mother KGB look bad.

Aug 10, 2008 - 2:27 pm 94. Rob73:

Yikes–NYT reports Gori is under “artillery and tank fire.” Great prediction by Wretchard. Sad to see it happen, though. They also report a Russian column entering “Georgian territory from Abkhazia”

Aug 10, 2008 - 2:37 pm 95. Rob73:

It’s an update to the NYT link Wretchard has in his original post above.

Aug 10, 2008 - 2:38 pm 96. John Samford:

“Russia has no intention to take over Georgia. All the current events can be explained satisfactorily without having to resort to any paranoid belief in any such evil intention.”

You know this because your KGB handler told you, right?
NONE of the events can be explained by anything other then a resurgent Russia looking to regain their former “glory”.
How many people will die as your masters try to turn back the hands of time. The same conditions that created the fall of the Soviet Union are still there. Until those conditions are addressed, Putin’s dictatorship will do no better then the Soviet Union did.

The Soviet Union never tried to put the OIL squeeze on Europe for two reasons. First Communist principals of dialectical materialism ‘proved’ that Europe would eventually fall into the Soviet, that it was inevitable that Socialism prevail and then evolve into Communism.
Second was that the USA would have been able to supply Europe enough OIL to support a war.
That all changed when the Soviet Union fell and the dialectic proved to be horse turds on a goat trail. Then the USA burned up all our easy to get at OIL and started to draw down the rest of the worlds easy to get at OIL.
The 21st century Russia IS NOT your father’s Soviet Union. The dictator in the Kremlin knows that Communism is BULLSH1T and that the West is weak in will power. If Russia gets a firm grip on Europes OIL supplies, they can force Europe to choose between a nasty war and being “Finlanized”. I’m betting Eurostan goes the way of Finland.
Mike, if Russia withdraws from Georgia, then I’m wrong and they are a bunch of swell fellows, who only practice rape, murder and mayhem on an irregular basis.
If I’m right, then you are a traitor, IF you are a member of western civilization.
I suspect you are Baghdad Bob’s cousin.
Your job is to keep the sheep blissful while the wolf is having lunch.

Aug 10, 2008 - 2:43 pm 97. wretchard:

South Ossetia and Abkhazia are “strategic” to Georgia in that they control the invasion routes into the country, as you probably know by now. However, their retention in Georgia’s hands is worthless against such a powerful enemy as Russia. The Russians can eventually force their way through. So Georgia’s security must lie elsewhere. The only alternative is collective security — alliance.

Should NATO acquire a country with such geographic liabilities? Well any nation bordering Russia has a geographic liability, whether it is Ukraine or Poland. NATO is an alliance of geographically challenged countries. Sad, but that why alliances form in the first place.

Aug 10, 2008 - 2:44 pm 98. whiskey:

What did I tell you?

Putin MUST crush and occupy Georgia, otherwise rivals he knows well, who are just like him, will use his “weakness” to arrange a Lavrenti Beria fate for him.

Moreover, he MUST keep the oil price high to pay off his thugs. Only as the cash keeps coming in, and a higher price than rivals could be expected to manage, does he keep his life. He’s the Czar, but danger lurks everywhere for Putin. Like a crime boss whom he resembles.

Aug 10, 2008 - 2:44 pm 99. buddy larsen:

Wrong, doug –risk was no longer a factor for at least some of those ‘43-’44 8th AAF guys. I know because i asked him once, how they kept climbing back into those machines, flying against those odds. He said, “Well, we just figured we were already dead. After that, it was easy.”

Aug 10, 2008 - 2:45 pm 100. E. Nigma:

At this point, it may be possible to speculate on what the real Russian “war aims” are. A brief summary:
1.Did the Russians bait the Georgians into starting a fight that the Russians were prepared to finish? I think that the Georgian military is deeply compromised by Russian intelligence.
2. Was this merely an effort to protect the ethnic Russians in S. Ossetia? Protect the battalion of Russian “peacekeepers”?
At this point, that line of thinking seems to be moot, and disappearing cover story.
3. Are the Russians preparing for an amphibious assault, from the sea? That is no spontaneous, spur of the moment action. Ships are mobilized, crews and tactics discussed, fueled, etc. This takes time. Days, at least to recall crews, prepare logistics, etc.

Speculation, based on postings here and things heard on the TV:
War Aims: Neutralize Georgia completely. This campaign may take weeks (where’s the UN? on vacation). This may not require a total military victory in the field, but a capitualation by the Georgian government, and the installation of a government that is pro-Russian. And the country will be dissected, with the creation of several new “autonomous” regions that happen to be “friendly” to the Russians. The question now is how much military pain the Georgians can take before capitualation. The Russians will then be able to keep the knife at their throats for the forseeable future.

NATO and the US will do nothing. Turkey now realizes the price it paid for hamstringing the US in the opening phase of OIF. This could actually fracture NATO.

Ukraine, you’re next.

Don’t be so sure that this helps McCain. If he appears out of step with the other NATO governments, while the Russians control all the “News” out of Georgia (information war, against C3), our reality will be what they tell us it is. If intrepid US reporters won’t venture out of the Green Zone in Iraq, don’t expect them to venture into a real war in Georgia to get any independent facts. An era of unreality is about to descend on us. Did Fukyama predict that one?

Obama can easily parrot the NATO – EU line, because that’s what he believes. And this country (the US) is not in the mood to get involved in this dirty little war. Any overt involvement could actually hurt McCain and help Obama with many voters.
I think Putin gets everything he wants out of this. I hope the EU is happy; a re-alignment of world power is beginning.

Aug 10, 2008 - 2:46 pm 101. Rob73:

Should the Georgians have prepared a more “hedgehog” strategy along the road from Tskhinvali to Gori? Prepared positions that light infantry could emerge out of with AT weapons to go after an armored column? Or is that ultimately useless given their vunerability to airlifts, paradrops, and amphibious assault from the west? Still, can’t help but think the Russians wouldn’t be firing tanks into Gori quite yet. . . .

Aug 10, 2008 - 2:50 pm 102. wretchard:

On the conventional battlefield, heavy weapons and air control are nearly everything. Without that, the Georgians will eventually be ground down. The question is how long? And what can the US do, or will it do, in the time available? At the start of this engagement, if you look back several posts, I wrote that it might make sense to send an air superiority force to a neighboring country, in order to deter the escalation we now observe. That would have complicated the Russian calculus and might have made them more cautious. Now we don’t know where this will end, and maybe air superiority will have to be sent in the end to reassure Turkey, which is a NATO member.

Aug 10, 2008 - 3:00 pm 103. nhworks:

The BBC reports:

Georgia says its forces have withdrawn from the separatist enclave of South Ossetia, and that Russian troops are now in control of the regional capital
An interior ministry spokesman told the BBC it was not a military defeat but a necessary step to protect civilians from a “humanitarian catastrophe”.

Yeh, right. Georgia really cares about ‘protecting civilians’,- that’s why they launched a brutal, murderous attack on the civilians of South Ossetia on Friday.

But the removal of Georgia’s troops from South Ossetia is not only a defeat for Georgia- it’s also a humiliating defeat for the country’s neo-con backers. It’s not only that in having to deal with the Russian response, Georgia has had to withdraw 1,000 of its troops from Iraq. In his brilliant article for Prison Planet, Paul Joseph Watson, outlines the level of neocon involvement in Georgia’s aggression (The Exile has more on the US involvement). The plan was simple- while the rest of the world attention was focused on the Olympics opening ceremony, a massive assault would be made to reclaim the province of South Ossetia. But it’s a neocon-instigated plan that has spectacularly backfired.

Russia is, quite correctly, ignoring US pleas for a ceasefire and, having liberated South Ossetia and saved its people from ethnic cleansing, is now focusing its attentions on reducing Georgia’s military capabilities, to make sure that the country never again launches a war of aggression against the people of South Ossetia, or indeed against anyone else. Russia, and South Ossetia must make sure that peace comes on THEIR terms, and not the neo-cons and their puppets- who are at the moment in no position to dictate terms to anyone. And that not only means obtaining a written agreement that Georgia relinquishes all claims to South Ossetia and Abkhazia-but also that Georgia also pledges to drop its plans to join NATO, and becomes a neutral, non-aligned state, in the same way that the State Treaty- negotiated between East and West- ensured Austria’s neutrality after World War Two.

The US would simply not allow Mexico or Canada to join a Russian-led military alliance, with missiles pointed at New York, so why should Russia accept US military bases on its doorstep?

UPDATE: James Jeffrey, US National Security advisor has made a valiant attempt to redefine the word ‘chutzpah’.
The Guardian reports that Jeffrey:

condemned Russia for its “dangerous and disproportionate” action against Georgia and warned of long-term damage to relations between Washington and Moscow.

So there you have it. The country which just five years ago launched a brutal and unprovoked military assault on the sovereign state of Serbia an assault which has led to creating of Islamo-state of Kosovo- has the chutzpah to criticise other countries for taking ‘dangerous and disproportionate’ action. I don’t know the Russian for that splendid old English expression ‘go and eat coke’, but it’s the response to Jeffrey I would make if I were Russia’s Foreign Minister.

Aug 10, 2008 - 3:06 pm 104. buddy larsen:

Russia will unveil a ”provisional government” any minute now. All Georgians, all KGB.

After that unveiling, there’ll be temporarily a transitional fog over who is and who isn’t the ”real” Georgian government.

After that, the guys in the government building now, will be speaking from exile, to an ever-dwindling audience.

Aug 10, 2008 - 3:07 pm 105. buddy larsen:

nhworks, congrats on a well-written statement of the russian position. but you ought to drop the ”Georgia started it” part. Looks like it’s no longer necessary, and besides it makes you look too much a tool, which weakens the rest of your argument.

Aug 10, 2008 - 3:15 pm 106. Cannoneer No. 4:

The US could put more in the planes bringing the Georgian Brigade home from Iraq than Georgian soldiers.

Aug 10, 2008 - 3:16 pm 107. George:

There is no moral equivalence between the US and Putin’s Russia. So the comparisons to US policy are invalid. We don’t just condemn Putin for being aggressive – we condemn him for being an aggressive totalitarian.

Aug 10, 2008 - 3:21 pm 108. trangbang68:

I love the Western Quislings who shake their fists full of wilted flower child daisies at the dreaded neo-cons. Meanwhile they have no fear of the rebirth of an empire that subjugated half the world and killed 100 million people. When you live in a world of self loathing coupled with moral relativism; what ever you call evil ,it must be so. Because after all, that’s what you feel.

Aug 10, 2008 - 3:22 pm 109. Trent Telenko:

Wretchard,

The NY Times is reporting Russian ground forces are assaulting Gori.

If they take the city, they will cut Georgia in half logistically.

If the Georgians hold long enough in Gori, they _might_ be able to exhaust on-site Russian Army logistics and force a diplomatic cease fire.

Nothing short of American military intervention will save Georgia if Putin wants it, and Pres Bush is still in Beijing enjoying the Olympics.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/11/world/europe/11georgia.html?_r=1&hp=&oref=slogin&pagewanted=print

Aug 10, 2008 - 3:30 pm 110. mika.:

“Mika: Then why is Russia providing Iran with nuclear and missile technology?”

It’s not. Iran received its nuclear technical knowledge from the same source Pakistan Iraq Libya Syria Egypt Jordan received theirs. And it wasn’t Russia.

Aug 10, 2008 - 3:30 pm 111. mika.:

Here’s the clue:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SW6PLZ-NAr0

Aug 10, 2008 - 3:32 pm 112. buddy larsen:

maybe now that Putin has clarified the territorial sovereignty question, the peoples of the free parts of the eurasian land mass will begin to awaken, and ask why the natural resources of their own continent are being weaponized against them by an organized crime cabal which may well be psychotic.

Aug 10, 2008 - 3:34 pm 113. Trent Telenko:

Wretchard,

Given the assault on Gori, it is clear Putin has decided to take Georgia. The logistics of the Russian forces in the fighting so far argues for a pre-planned and large conflict.

To date, this is how I read the conflict:

The Georgian forces were goaded by attacks from South Ossetia and the Georgian President fell for the Russian trap.

However, the Georgians seem to be fighting smart, now that they realize what is going on.

1. They set up an anti-aircraft buzz saw over Tblisi that among other things nailed a Backfire Tu-22 bomber.

2. The Georgian air force managed to get off a number of Su-25 sorties the first two days that hit Russian forces.

3. The Georgians claim to have hit and closed the Roki Tunnel. Given that the mouth of the tunnel is in heavy multiple rocket range of Georgia, that seems credible.

4. The Georgians have managed to wound the commanding general for the 58th heavy division. Both the Soviets and NATO have military doctrine to take out senior commanders and the Georgians managed to pull it off.

5. The Russians are flying in paratroopers to back up the 58th. That implies that the Georgian infantry is causing the 58th problems in the mountainous terrain around Tskhinvali.

6. The Georgians took the pass that Tskhinvali, South Ossetia, sat in. The fighting there has resulted in the city being destroyed by artillery fire. They then abandoned the city and were sitting on the high ground outside it.

The only dumb thing — besides falling for the trap in the first instance — they tried militarily to was to try and disengage under cease fire.

All that said, the Russians have

(a) Established air superiority over Georgia,

(b) They are moving ground forces by sea to Ochamchire, opposite the Kodori Gorge,

(c) They just sank a Georgian missile patrol boat (See: http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSLA56070520080810), so a defacto blockade of Georgia is under way (see: http://rmgh.net/news-room/alerts/62-alerts/795-russian-navy-blockades-humanitarian-wheat-shipment-to-georgia-.html),

(d) The are massing ground forces against the Kodori Gorge, which is a route to the port of Poti,

My take is that the Russians have activated contingency plans to over run Georgia, based on harder then expected resistance by Georgia.

The Bush administration has denounced all of this and is air lifting a brigade of Georgian troops in Iraq back to Georgia.

Just where those USAF transports will land is a very good question.

What is in them besides Georgian troops is also a good question.

Aug 10, 2008 - 3:41 pm 114. fred:

Yes, I just read the tool’s (”nhworks”) missive and paean to the Russian mailed fist. And having the temerity to use the Kosovo issue as a link. Yugoslavia was never a Russian possession. Ally of sorts, yes. But that’s about it. Georgia had been under the Soviet Union for a long time, but I am seeing this lame rationalization being bandied about all over the weblog world since the Russian invasion began.

nhworks, does Slavic pride and honor require the destruction and annexation of Georgia in order to be satisfied? Does it demand the threats issued to Ukraine and other sovreign states that were once a part of the Soviet Union? Yes, Russia threatened the Ukraine for having supported Georgia and sold arms to them. Are not the Ukrainians Slavs too????? What about the Poles, and the peoples of the Baltic Republics?

There was no ethnic cleansing going on in Ossetia. That’s a bald lie that no one but a swiller of pig excrement would ingest. What WAS happening in Ossetia for years were bold prevarications which the Russian paramilitaries were directing towards the Georgians, and which they withheld retaliation of. But, the calculus of Putin was that at some point the intimidation and prevarication would eventually get to the Georgians. The 58th was waiting in the Caucasus Mountain pass for weeks at the ready for this occasion.

It really steams me to see Americans defending totalitarian Russia. I hope they find suitable lodging in Hades for their perfidy.

Aug 10, 2008 - 3:45 pm 115. Konyok:

Fascinating.
Our progressive friends seem to be crystalling their narrative – the evil neocon cabal has goaded Georgia into an unprovoked attack on Russia’s reasonable peacekeeping occupation of Southern Ossetia.
Granted that some of the reflexive anti Russian sentiments expressed here have been silly and facile, it is nevertheless possible to make some kind of objective judgement as to which side in this connflict better represents the progessive ideal.
Putin’s Russia is a society in retrograde. The embryonic freedoms won after the fall of Communism are being extinguished one by one. Volodya Putin has instituted an authoritarian regime with fascistic tendencies. It is now an informal crime to run for political office in Russia without the blessing of the kremlin. Independent media is frightened into silence. Even gay rights parades are disallowed.
I am reminded of the curious policy of the women’s rights movement. Knee jerk opposition to any vestige of the domestic patriarchy, as represented by the current US administration, prevents any statement of solidarity with oppressed muslim women.
So, our progressive friends seem to be poised to bless Russian militarism because it seems to be oppossed to what they perceive as US militarism.
Fascinating.

Aug 10, 2008 - 3:50 pm 116. fred:

On nearly every weblog where there are discussions about the Russian invasion some agents of dizinformatzia have been squeezing out their droppings. They honestly think we believe the content of their excrement???

Aug 10, 2008 - 3:54 pm 117. buddy larsen:

Fred, that big game-winning hypothetical “would USA allow Canada or Mexico to ally with Russia?” might be effective on anybody who never heard of Cuba. Cuba is the one real world test of the hypo, and, well, do i need to say more.

Aug 10, 2008 - 3:56 pm 118. Bob Murphy:

Aether,
The Europeans are going to mobilize what?
Their militaries are atrophied and couldn’t fight their way out of a wet paper bag.
They have been hiding behind Sam’s skirts for 60 years and don’t even have the will to protect themselves any more.

Aug 10, 2008 - 3:56 pm 119. sigintel:

The US is closely watching this invasion of Georgia by the Russian’s from space via the Nation Reconnaissance Office(NRO)and must have real-time comm’s(HF and VHF radio) via monitoring stations in Turkey))info coming from Georgia and Russian Army RF signals since the start of the hostilities. NSA has to be monitoring the both satcom voice traffic and the internet pipeline’s from Russia and Georgia looking for “troop movement clues”. The Joint Chief’s are for sure listening “live” to this war.

I wonder what the Joint Chief’s and General Petreaus are thinking about this new “southern realignment” of Russian forces along the old Black Sea “USSRstan” border line…o-boy, I’d sure like to be able to monitor the battlefield and diplomatic comm’s traffic in real time to get a feel for the level and “moment of crisis” that’s near.

Aug 10, 2008 - 4:05 pm 120. wretchard:

Trent,

All the points you make are plausible; and I’ve been thinking along the same lines but have stopped short of reaching the same conclusion because I have only guessed the Georgians are fighting better than expected and didn’t know that for a fact. But let’s suppose that’s true then this is the story that emerges.

The Georgians found out that the Russians were going to do a coup de main and what we saw was essentially a meeting engagement. Maybe the Russians even leaked their plans so the Georgians had enough time to look the heavies but not enough time to block the Russians. Still, the Georgians may have performed well enough to throw the Russian timetable off by 48 hours.

But I’m guessing they weren’t sure if the Russians would stop at Ossetia. In the meantime, I’m guessing that the US crafted a proposal whereby the Georgians would fall back, thereby pulling the political rug from underneath the Russians, and simultaneously handing Moscow a velvet glove ultimatum: ‘we will take a dim view of Russian incursions into Georgia proper’. But they didn’t specify the penalty. The US may be bluffing and the Russians have called.

It now appears they are going for Gori and aim to install a puppet regime in Georgia. Now Georgia is in EUCOM’s AO. I am sure they have a contingency because NATO just finished an exercise with Georgia about a month ago at the very same airbase the Russians bombed first. We don’t know what it is, but it probably involves the arrival of force multipliers. Nothing heavy can get there in time. The guys who come will the ones who can work the force multipliers and prepare the infrastructure for the follow-on.

The arrival of the 2,000 Georgians now means a brigade of troops trained in using force multipliers has arrived. But to throw them into South Ossetia, whose position was untenable I’m guessing with the arrival of Russian light infantry to clear the heights, was dumb. That meant the Georgians had to re-establish a position based on a new strategic concept: the battle to preserve the country itself. Slow the Russians down, mine the roads, blow the bridges, counterattack sharply maybe hurt them very publicly. So the Georgians fell back in good order according to their plans. This alone tells you they were not defeated. You can’t disengage in good order if you’re broken. Now the Russians are keeping up the tempo and pressuring Gori.

The main Georgian handicap is that the Russians have air superiority. This has to be nullified in some way without direct US involvement. That’s the key. I think two things have to be done. One is send air superiority in to Turkey as a contingency to protect it, but also to complicate Russian planning and make them have to account for the possibility the USAF will come in, even if that possibility is remote. The second is to throw some kind of air defense over Georgia. Other than that, the only thing I can think of is that the Georgians need indirect precision strike and some kind of digital maneuver capability. Now that speculation is as far as I can take it without going into pure fiction, just making reasonable guesses.

Personally, I hope the Russians stop now. They can declare victory. In fact they should quit while they’re seemingly ahead. Who knows what can still happen? The road to Tbilisi is in the future and that is always a dark path.

Aug 10, 2008 - 4:11 pm 121. buddy larsen:

In an hour or two oil futures will begin the trading week on OZ & Asian markets. this war didn’t penetrate the mkts in the few hours available last week –the black boxes were in control and the human were drifting off for the weekend. Fox news just characterized the war as ‘possibly effecting your pocketboot’ –if it will, it will start showing pretty quickly. Maybe that’s what centcom is waiting for –to see how pissed off us masses are going to be.

Aug 10, 2008 - 4:16 pm 122. Aether:

Fred, you’re in good company…

http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2008/08/miffed-is-what-i-am.html

Aug 10, 2008 - 4:19 pm 123. buddy larsen:

highly recommend this very brief piece, h/t instapundit.

Aug 10, 2008 - 4:36 pm 124. james wilson:

Putin has determined he can already do anything he wants, so why wait? George has gone into the bag for kinder gentler legacy, and Bambi looks good for the election. Russia is now a much richer country, and America more dependent. If things change, Putin can throw some bones. It’s all good. And the American democracy under the neocons and moronicons resembles an ancient madcap Athenian version. So Vlad’s poking his finger in a few eyes. He’s been waiting a long time.

Aug 10, 2008 - 4:38 pm 125. buddy larsen:

“…an unusually high number of pro-Russian comments….”

Aug 10, 2008 - 4:52 pm 126. Rob73:

Has the Georgian army been optimized for territorial self-defense, or has perhaps too much emphasis been placed on training them up to, e.g., serve alongside U.S. forces in Iraq? Obviously the two goals aren’t entirely divergent, but they must not overlap completely. . . . Might be relevant lessen-learned by, e.g., Ukraine.

Aug 10, 2008 - 4:52 pm 127. Texas Gal:

I am sure they have a contingency because NATO just finished an exercise with Georgia about a month ago at the very same airbase the Russians bombed first.

It ended July 31 and guess who was conducting exercises on the other side of the border? Putin was ready. All he needed was to set the bait!

Georgia Gearing up for “Immediate Response”, Russia Flexing Muscles with “Caucasus Frontier 2008”
July 28, 2008
Dali Bzhalava, The Georgian Times

1,625 Georgian military servicemen are taking part in a large-scale international military training, alongside US forces, known as Immediate Response at the site of the fourth infantry brigade of Vaziani base. This training is the first of its kind to be held in Georgia and is part of the joint Georgian-American project.

Within the program, command-headquarter training is being carried out with land force brigades.

One of the tasks Georgian and American soldiers had to fulfill together was patrolling near the selected settled area where an unexpected attack recently took place. Georgian and American military personnel evacuated local population and withdrew wounded people from the site.

The Georgian-American trainings coincided with the Russian military exercises near the Georgia-Russia border. The Georgian Foreign Ministry said that these trainings, Dubbed Caucasus Frontier 2008, launched by Russia’s North Caucasian Military District (SKVO) on July 15 in close proximity of the border, are a continuation of Russia’s aggressive policy.

read more

The link to the online home page:
Georgian Daily online

Aug 10, 2008 - 4:54 pm 128. Richard Fernandez:

The Huffington Post has an article by Zbigniew Brzezinski comparing Russia’s ongoing conquest of Georgia to it’s attempt on Finland.

The question the international community now confronts is how to respond to a Russia that engages in the blatant use of force with larger imperial designs in mind: to reintegrate the former Soviet space under the Kremlin’s control and to cut Western access to the Caspian Sea and Central Asia by gaining control over the Baku/ Ceyhan pipeline that runs through Georgia.

Georgia has so far eluded the fate of Poland. Readers will recall that Hitler also invaded on the pretext of protecting German nationals being oppressed by foreign governments. The Polish campaign lasted 46 days, but it was essentially over in two weeks. The Poles were encircled and cut off from each other by a forward defense strategy that emphasized controlling their borders.

The difference in this case is that Georgia has a border with Turkey and a second mountain barrier — the lesser Caucasus. If Georgian forces falls back south, behind the lesser Caucasus, which runs paralle. but south of the major range, they would have the Turkish border to their rear. Imagine if Poland had had a border with France. If Georgia refuses to surrender and holds out in the mountains it could drag Russia into a wider war. The choice not to die quietly is not Russia’s it is Georgia’s. Of course it would mean giving up Tbilisi and every major city. And I don’t even know if it’s possible.

Aug 10, 2008 - 5:14 pm 129. George:

Putin is a power-lusting maniac. All of his actions must be interpreted in that context. Do not accept the shills arguments from moral equivalence. Criminals cannot point to cops and claim that they shoot people too. The facts make the theme of Putin’s Russia unmistakable: Tyranny.

July 2000 – In a national address, Putin announces he will clamp down on the oligarchs and rebellious regional governors. In the days that follow, the tax police pursue criminal actions against Russian oil giant Lukoil, press and broadcasting conglomerate Media-Most, car manufacturer Avtovaz and financial conglomerate Interros. The audit chamber of the Parliament launches an investigation of electric monopoly UES.

February 2001 – The state-controlled gas monopoly, Gazprom, wins a controlling interest in NTV, one of Russia’s last privately owned national television stations and a staunch critic of President Putin.

July 2001 – The law on political parties imposes new requirements and restrictions on political parties. Over the next year and a half, the Parliament passes other laws that increase the power of political parties and regulate campaign finance, electoral procedure and media coverage of elections.

January 2002 – A court decision shuts down TV-6, Russia’s last independent television network and frequent critic of President Putin. TV-6 will continue operating as TVS until the government shuts it down in June 2003, citing the station’s financial and management problems.

March 2003 – President Putin restructures his security bureaucracy, expanding the powers of the FSB

April 2003 – Sergei Yushenkov (1950-2003) was a liberal Russian politician well known for his uncompromising struggle for democracy, rapid free market economic reforms, and higher human rights standards in Russia. He was assassinated on April 17, 2003, just hours after registering his political party to participate in the December 2003 parliamentary elections.

October 2003 – Mikhail Khodorkovsky, a major financer of the reformist Yabloko Party, is arrested on fraud, forgery, embezzlement, and tax evasion charges. Khodorkovsky is convicted and sentenced to nine years in prison in May 2005.

July 2003 – Yury Shchekochikhin, liberal lawmaker and investigative journalist, dies of a mysterious allergic reaction. Many believe it was a case of deliberate poisoning, but the incident was never investigated as a murder.

October 2003 – Controversial businessman Andrei Andreyev, locked in court battle with Kremlin-connected aluminum tycoon Oleg Deripaska, narrowly survives gun attack. Case unsolved.

September 2004 – Putin scraps direct election for regional governors and makes them, in effect, Kremlin appointees.

September 2004 – Viktor Yushchenko – Ukrainian presidential candidate poised with dioxin. Currently, Volodymyr Satsiuk and two others present at the dinner have fled to Russia where they remain in hiding from Ukraine authorities. It is rumored they have received Russian citizenship.

July 2005 – Former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov is charged with fraudulently acquiring property shortly before he was ousted by Putin in 2004. The charges are believed to be retaliation against Kasyanov’s frequent criticism of Putin.

January 2006 – Putin signs a law giving authorities sweeping new powers to monitor and punish NGOs.

July 2006 – Russian lawmakers unanimously endorse a Kremlin request that Putin be allowed to send special forces to hunt down terrorists anywhere in the world.

October 2006 – Prominent journalist and critic of the Kremlin’s policy in Chechnya Anna Politkovskaya is shot dead in her apartment building. Former Soviet President Gorbachev calls her slaying “a true political homicide, a vendetta.”

November 2006 – Former Federal Security Service agent and harsh Kremlin critic Aleksandr Litvinenko dies in London of a mysterious poisoning.

December 2007 – Sergei Taratukhin, a defrocked orthodox priest, fell to his knees before the bishop of this frigid Siberian city 3,000 miles from Moscow. He begged for his clerical robes back and vowed to mend his ways. His sin: siding with a foe of the Kremlin.

Aug 10, 2008 - 5:18 pm 130. sirius_sir:

buddy, brief but instructive and poignant.

Aug 10, 2008 - 5:20 pm 131. Doug:

“and some kind of digital maneuver capability.”
—
What is that?

Aug 10, 2008 - 5:20 pm 132. fred:

What has really bothered me, Buddy, are the American posters who are clearly Patrick Buchanan followers who are yukking it up over this whole thing, BLAMING US for it because of Kosovo. I never knew that Kosovo and Georgia were linked? Did you?

Aug 10, 2008 - 5:21 pm 133. TmjUtah:

Mike Slywester -

“Russia has had military forces in Southern Ossetia continuously since the year 1801. For comparison, Ohio became a US state in the year 1803.”

Just damn. Thanks for the history lesson. I never read no books, mister.

All kidding aside, Putin isn’t getting any younger, and without international fear Russia remains a loose-knit confederation of petty thieves under an oligarchy of crooks who let the world slip through their fingers.

But this style of set -piece ambush while Bush, the only Western leader likely to intervene, and with the means to make it stick has less than a half year remaining in office shows how high the stakes are.

If the Russians aren’t after Georgia, they’ve certainly picked a strange force mix for this “spontaneous” operation, haven’t they?

Phibs? Blockade?

I never said that Russia was out to invade Europe by next Tuesday.

But are they maneuvering to take over our baby sitting job?

Fuck yes. I’d say “welcome to it” except for….

Well, damn, the only reason I really object now is because I know enough history ( I lied – we have a lending library on the turnip tru ck, Mike) to know that dictatorships expand or die, and that America has been the curb where the last century’s bosses splattered.

We had real allies then. And statesmen here at home; enough, at least, to see the fight through. And let’s not forget all the fields of crosses in those Old Countries, or on those shitty little coral islands between Australia and Okinawa.

No, Mike, I’m just blowing it out my ass.

Putin executes his partition of Georgia this month, on his terms, then he’s looking at the next four years against Mr. Community Organizer or Angry McAmnesty. Oh, and NATO and the UN, too. I bet he’s got quite the tingle going up his leg.

U.S. air on station within the week, U.S. brokered truce guaranteeing Georgian sovereignty within a month. And the media will ignore it. The bear will go back in the cave until next summer.

Make more sense now?

How’d you like to be a Pole? Or a Turk, Mike?

Think about it.

Aug 10, 2008 - 5:28 pm 134. NahnCee:

Turkey now realizes the price it paid for hamstringing the US in the opening phase of OIF. This could actually fracture NATO.

Forget NATO. What are the leaders of France, Germany and England saying? Those same leaders who were SOOOOOO loud and condemning over the past seven years of whatever American felt the need to do? I haven’t seen any headlines over and above the Olympics gold medal count that would lead me to think that any EU presidents have any opinion at all, let alone any desire to do anything.

I’m also wondering if the commenters in the blogosphre like nwork and ukdude who are distressing Fred and others so much are wilted flower children or Americans at all. If they’re not progressive Yurpizoids bleating their “can’t we all just get along” anthem. After all, if you’re a Frog or a Brit or a Kraut you have two choices: root for Russia or root for Georgia (and America). Their hatred of America ips facto will not allow them any option except to root for Russia.

Let the projection and the mind games begin.

Aug 10, 2008 - 5:43 pm 135. Aether:

Not much hard info but interesting article…

“Did the U.S. Prep Georgia for War with Russia?”

http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/08/did-us-military.html

Aug 10, 2008 - 5:45 pm 136. Armitage:

The updates on the Wikipedia entry on the South Ossetian War include an extremely interesting tidbit: two groups of commandos captured, one of which has an African-American. The sourcing is in Russian, so I invite someone to confirm since I don’t read Russian:

^ “Американский наемник взят в плен в Южной Осетии” (in Russian), Vzglyad. Retrieved on 2008-08-10.

Aug 10, 2008 - 5:46 pm 137. trangbang68:

tmjutah, Nice job brother.What happens to those who forget their past again,teacher?
Irony of ironies, the crucible for maybe another century of darkness lies in Gori, the birthplace of Stalin the butcher.
I wonder if Mike Sylwester is a nom de plume for Ivan Ivanovich, late of Spetnatz. Who knows who anybody is in cyberspace.

Aug 10, 2008 - 5:48 pm 138. buddy larsen:

Tmj, Red Army built large bronze “The Unknown Soldier” statues here and there in eastern Europe cities after 1945. Invariably, the locals have dubbed them “The Unknown Rapist”.

Aug 10, 2008 - 5:49 pm 139. Alexis:

ukdude:

I hope you realize that using the R-word is every bit as offensive as using the N-word.

Aug 10, 2008 - 5:52 pm 140. RWE:

Folks the best thing we can do to respond to the Russians in Georgia is to get our own house in order.

Consider: Russia, already a major oil exporter, has taken action to secure control over part of Venezuela’s oil, has influence over Iran’s oil due to being Lord Protector of that country in the UN and the source of nuclear expertise. Now Russia has cut off Georgia’s oil thoroughfare, perhaps temporarily, but they know they can reimpose it any time – and who knows what the conditions of the final settlement will be.

Russia is trying to become its own OPEC, and is well on the way to succeeding.

Against all this, Nancy Pelosi’s and Harry Reid’s desperate machinations to prevent access to the U.S.’s own untapped oil supplies have all of the significance of a child’s tea party with her doll collection as the guests – a tea party being given in Warsaw in August 1939.

The best thing we can do to upset Russia’s plans is to get our affairs in order here at home. And if that means introducing the Democratic party leadership to some nice safe rubber rooms, that’s fine. To me their timing looks more than a little suspicious. Useful Idiots, indeed.

Aug 10, 2008 - 5:53 pm 141. wretchard:

two groups of commandos captured, one of which has an African-American

I think this is unlikely. No sense in sending “commandos” who are black in a largely white country, especially for stay behind. The fact he’s claimed black is probably a Russian attempt at authenticity. But the main theme of the disinformation is that ‘America has planned this’, etc. So while I don’t know if for a fact, I would discount.

It’s now about dawn in Georgia right now, FWIW.

Aug 10, 2008 - 5:54 pm 142. Armitage:

I am skeptical too of the claim of the capture, but I would like to see the original story too–the person might be indeed black, but not holding a U.S. passport.

Aug 10, 2008 - 6:01 pm 143. buddy larsen:

RWE, Gazprom has also made deals with Turkmenistan (which fills large part of the Georgia pipeline) & Libya, two more previously-western suppliers. Buyers will now go to Putin, no longer to a private for-profit entity.

Business principles out, domination principles in.

Aug 10, 2008 - 6:02 pm 144. Doug:

RWE,
In the real World, we know that National Security is the number one reason to drill now and build refineries now.
Pelosi and Reid are not of this World.

Aug 10, 2008 - 6:04 pm 145. Taveren:

blackwater? one of dozens of other gun-for-hire groups? special forces from one of the..who knows how many… countries doing clandestine operations there now?

Aug 10, 2008 - 6:05 pm 146. Armitage:

Taveren,

indeed–while the russians might like it to be an American, it would be the height of arrogance to assume that highly trained special operators who are black must be American. French, British, Spanish or South African is plausible too. Or just dark-skinned, compared to a pasty Causcasian.

Aug 10, 2008 - 6:10 pm 147. Teresita:

Bob Murphy: They have been hiding behind Sam’s skirts for 60 years and don’t even have the will to protect themselves any more.

For almost a hunnert years we’ve been going “Over There” to roll back the Hun, only to get told by our own allies, a generation or two after we save them, “Yankee go home”. How about in Georgia we just right skip to the “Yankee go home” part without the D-Day/Belleau Wood/Hamburger Hill part.

Aug 10, 2008 - 6:12 pm 148. neolex:

It’s refreshing to find so many Americans (though I realize its not a cross-section) knowing more about the geo-politics of the region, then overwhelming majority of Russian populace and infowar is not the sole factor. I completely agree with Wretchard’s analysis. However, here is what seems disturbing to me:

US has not announced about sending any kind of military presence to the Black Sea region. They could’ve conveniently redirected 2 CSGs destined for gulf, there, but they hadn’t. If nothing else, it would assure Georgia and other allies that it’s not simply standing by. Anyone remember NATO action against Yugoslavia? Pathetic drunkard Yeltsin did more than Bush is doing now. This indicates two possible scenarios: a) a deal has already been struck between Russia and US under the table OR b) there is a complete lack of leadership and lack of understanding of the situation by Bush & Co, which appears to be more likely. In either case, the US response, if it does not change in tune with what the situation demands, will cost its standing dearly.

P.S. If you need me to translate any Russian source materials, I’d be happy to help.

Aug 10, 2008 - 6:15 pm 149. NahnCee:

Al-Quedians can also look black in certain light.

I noticed an article a week or so ago some place on the internet reporting that hate crime/attacks are up in Russia. They’re beating on their blacks in the streets of Moscow.

So the report could also just be some old-fashion racist blame the darkest skin around for whatever’s happened.

I simply cannot believe, however, that the biggest haters in the world, the jihadists, can’t get a piece of this action, one way or the other.

Aug 10, 2008 - 6:16 pm 150. djs:

Good analysis over at WestHawk: http://westhawk.blogspot.com/2008/08/punitive-raid-or-russian-occupation.html#links

Aug 10, 2008 - 6:17 pm 151. Konyok:

Wretchard:

Query, was that mention of “2000 Ukrainians” in your 4:11 post a typo?
If not, the presence of Ukrainian troops in Georgia is big news indeed.

Aug 10, 2008 - 6:21 pm 152. Armitage:

Konyok:

I think he meant the 2000 Georgians the U.S. has begun to fly up. To what field, though? I expect the C-130s will be flying with F-22 escorts….

Aug 10, 2008 - 6:22 pm 153. wretchard:

Yes “Ukranians” was a typo and I’ve fixed.

Aug 10, 2008 - 6:24 pm 154. elijah:

Turks near Batumi

Aug 10, 2008 - 6:27 pm 155. Susan Katz Keating:

It’s just getting uglier by the hour.

Aug 10, 2008 - 6:28 pm 156. Konyok:

Armitage,

That would translate as “American mercenary captured in South Ossetia.” However, it is ungrammatical – the verb tense is wrong. Nothing in that sentence about the race of the mercenary.

Neolex,

I don’t that we can get a carrier group through the Bosporus. If we did the Russians very well might consider it an act of war.

Aug 10, 2008 - 6:29 pm 157. steveaz:

Wretchard’s site is by far the BEST source of current and historical information on this riveting war.

This site is leaving every other news source in its dust!

Thank You Richard and commentators.
-Steve

Aug 10, 2008 - 6:34 pm 158. TmjUtah:

It’s not like Europe hasn’t been a battlefield for centuries or anything like that. There’s not much in the way of ideological cover for what’s happening now, though. Call these last fifty years a time out.

We’ve (the U.S. and allies) have pretty much crushed al Q as a world operation. The gomers died in Iraq, with their “leaders” hanging their burkas in Pakistan, Saudi Palaces, and probably f’n Dearborn… waiting for Bush to go away.

Iran’s usefulness to Russia is over with the Ossetian war, isn’t it? Russia gets paid for a crappy theater radar/SAM network but has probably spent more time developing network relationships with the people that Putin intends to replace the mullahs with.

I’m going to go out on a limb here and predict that Putin, and his successors, have a plan to deal with Islam’s demographic advantage. Just sayin…

In my above comment I published a wish, not a prediction, in that Bush would step up and put a lid on this situation.

It was just a wish. I think he’s probably terminally tired of all the horse shit of dealing with the Democrats, the media, and our “allies”, and may just walk away having only freed thirty million or so people, killing or capturing the lion’s share of al Q, and establishing two democracies where nothing remotely like them existed before.

He’s only one man. And he’s done… what he said he would do.

Break time is over, Europe.

Darkness falls.

Aug 10, 2008 - 6:36 pm 159. Armitage:

Konyok;

That’s a very important development–so the translation has nothing on race. Thank you for that.

I find it highly unlikely that the U.S. 6th Fleet–or at least the carrier– would transit the Bosporus. I would not be surprised to see a multinational NATO Mediterranean squadron go to observe, however, since that would make it less “American” and more “European.”

We should remember how difficult it was to get the Russians to accept a NATO force into the Black Sea over Operation Active Endeavor.

Aug 10, 2008 - 6:36 pm 160. wretchard:

Everything that is done must meet three criteria:

1. It must help the Georgians;
2. It must incentivize the Russians to back off;
3. It must prevent an escalation.

That narrows the scope of action to stuff that is deniable, capable of being executed by proxy but effective. Basically the idea is to make it not worth the Russian’s while to keep going by inflicting cost, delay and embarassment. The classic method is defensive demolitions. Mining the ports, blowing the bridges, closing the roads, demolishing supplies. The Japanese held Okinawa for a very long time by delay, delay and delay. So while the Georgians might be fighting a losing battle, it is possible to slow the Russians down, especially if you have force multipliers. Whether or not the Georgians choose this very painful method of resistance is something we shall see.

Aug 10, 2008 - 6:36 pm 161. Taveren:

neolex:

Thanks for the compliment. I present an option c:) waiting for NATO and the region to make a substantial commitment before doing anything overt.

As to how much initiave the US needs to see in order to act in defense of its northern Eurasian ally….I’m with TmjUtah- “US Air on station within a week”.

Aug 10, 2008 - 6:38 pm 162. Konyok:

When I visited Sevastopol I was amazed at the loose security of the Russian and Ukrainian naval facilities there. From Panorama Hill you can see all of the harborages. I’m not at all surprised that Ukrainian bloggers have been reporting on Black Sea Fleet movements.
I think this inadvertant transparency is an artifact of the communist past – during Soviet times Sevastopol was a closed city, accessed only with special permit.
It’s possible that a second chapter of this conflict might transpire when the fleet returns to Sevastopol. Will the Ukrainians oppose them?

Aug 10, 2008 - 6:38 pm 163. TmjUtah:

wretchard -

There can be NOTHING clandestine about U.S. force being brought to bear.

Europe should be given a chance – entreated to participate in a meaningful manner, meaning deploying troops, ships, aircraft, and equipment to the theater – but that ring should be offered with an unambiguous time line, and on a “you are in or you are out” basis.

This next week may make Cuba in ‘62 look like a walk in the Park. It will certainly draw lines across Europe for years to come.

With respect, in my opinion the tactical objective is to cow Georgia into surrendering enough territory to make its continued existence as a sovereign nation a sham.

The strategic objective is a no brainer: to define the United States as worthless as an ally.

That NATO and the U.N. aren’t even considered worth addressing tells you all you need to know about those organizations and where they fall in the pecking order.

Aug 10, 2008 - 6:44 pm 164. Rob73:

That narrows the scope of action to stuff that is deniable, capable of being executed by proxy but effective.
_________________________________

Wretchard,
Are you suggesting we can’t supply them with arms above-board? Can you say more about this? I know we wanted deniability in Afghanistan, but non-belligerants are permitted to trade with belligerents under international law (hey–it is clear on a few basic principles!). And, we’ve got the land border between Georgia and a NATO ally!!

Aug 10, 2008 - 6:48 pm 165. Konyok:

The crawler on Fox news is quoting Medvedev as saying that an important task for Russian forces is to find the documentation to allow prosecution of Georgian officials for war crimes. I haven’t seen this bit anywhere else.

Does anybody know whether the French and Finnish foreign ministers actually arrived in Tblisi?

Aug 10, 2008 - 6:50 pm 166. mika.:

“The official said that it appeared that the Kremlin’s objectives, at a minimum, had extended beyond securing the enclaves and now included the destruction of the Georgian armed forces, with an aim of intensifying the domestic pressure on Saakashvili.”

That’s probably the best analysis I’ve read so far.

Aug 10, 2008 - 6:50 pm 167. neolex:

Ukrainian announcement is merely a gesture of support for Georgia. Ukraine does not have any means to prevent Russian fleet from entering the port, nor would it make good on its threat, even if it did.

Aug 10, 2008 - 6:50 pm 168. Armitage:

Neolux,

The Ukrainians could block the port with blockships, since the naval base appears to be above the commercial port. Then Russia would challenge this at the risk of war.

Aug 10, 2008 - 6:53 pm 169. wretchard:

Are you suggesting we can’t supply them with arms above-board?

Only if we have to. There will soon be calls to prevent the flow of arms, etc. You can bet your boodle the Left is working on this now. Turkey will be the key to resupplying the Georgians. We don’t want to embarss them any more than necessary. The Russians are already accusing the Turks of helping the Georgians. Plus, we want to remove the US versus Russia aspect to this. Nobody will be fooled, but one wants to say “prove it”.

Some things, however, should not only be overt, but advertised. If you look back at my earliest posts on this, I suggested in comments that the US should send air superiority to a nearby allied country. I have repeated this point often. That’s to send the signal. So there’s no question of appearing cowed by the Russians, but if we’re going to send x weapons to the Georgians via Turkey, it’s best nobody knows where they came from. Besides, who would send x?

Aug 10, 2008 - 6:54 pm 170. Konyok:

neolex,

You’re probably right. The blue supporters, especially the Crimean Russians, very well might rise up against the Yushchenko govt.

Aug 10, 2008 - 6:54 pm 171. Konyok:

Armitage,

There isn’t one large naval base at Sevastopol, instead there are a bunch of small inlets where two or three vessels are berthed. A lot of these are right across the street from Soviet era apartment blocks that overlook the docks. I guess that in Soviet time the entire city was considered to be the naval base. I am told that there wasn’t even a police force – the naval MPs patrolled the city.

Aug 10, 2008 - 7:01 pm 172. neolex:

Wretchard,

I couldn’t disagree more. Tactically, Russian objective is to replace Georgian government. Whether it be by force, or by dealing enough damage to the Georgia so that Saakashvili govt would fall in the aftermath and a more friendly govt can be installed by KGB. However, the strategic objective is to show US as helpless or unwilling to assist Georgia analogues in the region Ukraine, Poland, etc. While, what you suggest would be effective against Russian tactical goal, it would do almost nothing against the strategic one. US has to do a bold and public move, while also maximizing its options for deescalation (not burning any bridges). Things that are done covertly do not exert much influence on public opinion in relevant countries.

Aug 10, 2008 - 7:02 pm 173. Lifeofthemind:

We must establish an American Airhead that is a US defended airbase that we can bring the Georgian army into and land supplies at. We need to see the 50,000 man Turkish mobile force move over to Batumi. The Russians should know that Turkish subs are taking photos of the propellors of the Russian troop ships.

Aug 10, 2008 - 7:02 pm 174. Rob73:

Thanks, Wretchard, and good points. I just wanted to clarify, for what it’s worth, that we could legally send Javelins, anti-air missiles, etc. to Georgia if we so chose. I suppose the Russians could “consider” it an act of war, but at least we’d have the international law crowd on our side (Yay!).
Yes, I’ve been reading all of your exellent posts on this–your early insight on sending an air superiority wing to Turkey cert. would have given a bit more of an iron fist to what you termed today’s “velvet glove” US suggestion that the Russians stop in S. Ossetia, which they’ve blown off (apparently).
It just feels so crappy to be flying back Georgian troops from Iraq and then dropping them off and saying “good luck against the Russians, guys.” I mean, they’re fighting for their country’s independence and survival at this point. (I do realize we’re helping behind the scenes.)

Aug 10, 2008 - 7:03 pm 175. elijah:

Sea Breeze 2008

Aug 10, 2008 - 7:05 pm 176. TmjUtah:

neolex -

Fist bump!

Aug 10, 2008 - 7:06 pm 177. neolex:

Internal divisions within Ukraine are greatly exaggerated by Russia. There is not short-term danger of any uprising of any of the Ukrainian regions. However, there are other levers, mostly economic that Russia can pull, that would cost the elites associated with Ukrainian govt (or in opposition to it) billions of dollars. As such, Ukraine will not do any grand-standing.

Aug 10, 2008 - 7:06 pm 178. Dan Canaveral:

I’m beginning to think that the west has traded Georgia for Iran.

Aug 10, 2008 - 7:08 pm 179. TmjUtah:

Somebody help me out here – when and where are the Western intelligentsia, the entertainers, Amnesty International, the ICC, all those NGO’s camping outside Abu Ghraib, and the media giants meeting to condemn the Russian aggression?

I didn’t get any invitations…

Aug 10, 2008 - 7:10 pm 180. Lifeofthemind:

Ukraine certainly could occupy the port of Sevastapol if it wanted to. The Russians would face a long trip home to the Baltic or Murmansk and accidents happen/

Aug 10, 2008 - 7:10 pm 181. neolex:

@TmjUtah

Aug 10, 2008 - 7:11 pm 182. Texas Gal:

Medvedev as saying that an important task for Russian forces is to find the documentation to allow prosecution of Georgian officials for war crimes.

No doubt. Putin sees this as personal. Saakashvili deposed his proxy with a red rose above his head then had the audacity to bring democracy to Georgia, buddy up with Bush, get nod from NATO and good grief support the transformation of Iraq!

Yeah, Putin wants to see Saakashvili in the Hague!

Aug 10, 2008 - 7:14 pm 183. fred:

I firmly believe that if our nation’s citizenry had not been so successfully plied with bullshit from the MSM about our “defeat” in the “illegal Iraq war for oil” our people would be more resolute. And that resolution would have translated into a different calculus by Moscow and Tehran. Both consider us weak and lacking the political will to stand up to them. Our President, I believe, was fatally wounded by the refusal of his government to confront Russia with the truth about their removal/cleanup in Iraq prior to the invasion, and then to spill the beans to our public. The nation would have understood two things better:

1. That we did not lie about the WMD thing.

2. That Russia and other nations had been an integral part of the weapons’ programs and the coverup.

The State Department and the President, so we are told, did not want to risk alienating Russia by publicly embarrassing it. We thought that maybe Russia would help us with Iran.

So, now we are stuck, and we are in a bad place, because of a poor calculation. State and the White House (and also the CIA) misread Russia and Putin very badly. There were so many bad effects that resulted from this it would take a voluminous position paper to expose and explain it all.

We should now do our own HONEST information war against Russia and finally spill the beans as to how evil and doublecrossing they are. The government should apologize to the people for withholding the truth about Operation Sarindar. We should expose it all and ram it up the Russians arses as far up as it will go.

Aug 10, 2008 - 7:15 pm 184. Peace:

Here is a story from the region:

Russia intents:

1. Kick of Saakashvili democracy from Georgia and in meanwhile western presence in Caucasus region.

2. To get control over Baku-Tbilisi-Geyhan oil pipeline which supply caspian oil to europe

3. To show to the west Russia force

4. Revenge for the Kosovo

5. To shake USA pre voting company

These are main factors, which lead Putin & Co
to this.

This struggle is not Georgia vs Russia, it is USA interests vs Russia.

and I do hope civilian world will win in this unfair battle.

Aug 10, 2008 - 7:16 pm 185. neolex:

@fred
I don’t know whether Iraq had WMDs prior to US invasion, and the whole story about not wanting to confront Russia seems extremely far-fetched. However, what’s clear is that WMDs were only a pretense and the war was started undeniably about oil. That’s not automatically a bad thing. However, had it been better conducted, it might have been a success, where US could have gained more oil resources in its zone of control, thus increasing its market stability and securing oil prices, while also establishing the first democracy in the region and being seen as liberators. Instead, we have what we have.

Aug 10, 2008 - 7:22 pm 186. OldSalt:

“Forget NATO. What are the leaders of France, Germany and England saying?”

NATO is, if not the cause, certainly the enabler of this war. When Germany vetoed Georgia’s admission to NATO (something I hadn’t picked up until I read this BLOG), NATO in effect gave Putin a green light to anything he wanted to do in Georgia and the other former Soviet republics. There was much hand-wringing in Europe and abroad about the relevancy of NATO during the post-Yugoslavian civil wars. If NATO couldn’t keep the peace in Europe’s own backyard, of what use was NATO at all.

Well, now we have a situation where a fellow European nation, a new democracy at that, asked for admission to the “big club”, pledged to put it’s blood on the line in defense of Europe proper (and to actually spend the money to do it). NATO said “Nein”, and now Georgia is probably a province of the reconstituted USSR.

NATO is dead. NATO had the opportunity to open it’s doors before; not it’s too late to save NATO. The U.N. has been a corpse for probably 50 years. The issue isn’t whether the U.S.A. should remove herself from these useless dead-weight alliances, but whether it’s profitable to remain. If the U.N. doesn’t promote “world peace” (however that might be defined), NATO doesn’t guarantee the freedom and survival of free European states, and neither track closely with American interests, we need to be out of both organizations and “in” to more relevant alliances. We can no longer waste time or resources on NATO.

America must lead. Bush needs to assemble a new “coalition of the willing” in Europe, a new NATO (e.g. NATO2). Potential NATO2 applicant countries include Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Hungary, Poland, Ukraine and of course, Turkey, plus a few I missed. NATO was formed post-WWII as a bulwark against Russian aggression. Admission was based on need, not on the ability to contribute. Old Europe need not apply. (However, if Germany does apply, route their application to Georgia first for comment.) On the other hand, France being the contrarian (and opportunist) that it is, might just be the first European country to join.

Again, America must lead. No one else will (unless you count “peace” loving Putin’s Russian, Venezuela’s Chavez, or Ahmadinejad’s IRAN). NATO2 will not be “toothless”. The member states will remember Russia’s unkind acts more so than old Europe. They will arm. They will defend. Hungary will not forget. Poland will not forget. The former Czech states will not forget. Georgia will never forget.

And, Russian will take notice. Putin may pick off an “easy” target on Russia’s border, but the prospect of facing Hungarian, Polish, and Czech F16’s and F22’s, as well as a European embargo on Russian goods and oil, will curb his appetite.

Nothing else will change Russia, other than a credible threat of force and realization of economic pain.

For now, unfortunately, the Georgian’s will likely face their fate by themselves. While I’d personally be thrilled to see the USAF and USN aircraft challenging Russian air superiority and reducing Soviet (oops “Russian”) tank columns, in fact, anything the West now does is probably too little, too late. The Georgian’s may yet pull an Israeli-stype 1948-1956-1967 miracle. I wish them well. The next best thing the West can do for Georgia is to make certain Russia pays an economic and military price Putin cannot afford.

Putin may grab Georgia. A NATO2 embargo will kick his micro-sized gonads up into his throat. Hopefully, our friends the Georgian’s will make him choke on his prize.

And yes, to echo RWE’s sentiments, it’s high time to get our own house in order, to drill, build nuclear plants, mine oil shale, coal, as well as develop all those pretty new “clean” technologies which are probably 50 years from being economically viable. We no longer have the luxury to listen to Gore’s children’s fairy tale of global warming “not-science”. Men with guns are at the gates, and they are after the women, the children, and everything else we hold dear.

Aug 10, 2008 - 7:30 pm 187. Rob73:

Somebody help me out here-when and where are the Western intelligentsia . . . and the media giants meeting to condemn the Russian aggression?
______________________________________________

They really believe that Georgia is bad, b/c Georgia likes the U.S./sent troops to Iraq. It’s a whole different world-view, that affects their interp. of facts. Most of them are sincere, inasmuch as they don’t think that they’re lying.

Aug 10, 2008 - 7:33 pm 188. Konyok:

neolex,

It’s a bit off topic, but not really. Feelings run really deep in Crimea and Putin walks on water. The Kyiv govt has a policy of linguistically Ukrainizing the Russian majority – all education and all official documents must now be in Ukrainian. This is a godsend for Ukrainian translators and an additional expense and nuisance for people eking by on $100 a month. An additional aggravation is the perceived preference by Kyiv for the Crimean Tatars. (Another heartbreaking story … )
Typical of borderlands, Crimea is more self consciously Russian than most areas of Russia itself. The Crimean War, the Russian civil war and the “Great Patriotic War” are integral to the Crimean identity. The whole peninsula is dotted with war memorials and it is still the custom for newlywed brides to leave their bouquets at these shrines.
The differences in Ukraine are very real.

The divisions in Ukraine are very real

Aug 10, 2008 - 7:43 pm 189. Lifeofthemind:

Medvedev as saying that an important task for Russian forces is to find the documentation to allow prosecution of Georgian officials for war crimes.
Remember the suicide note scene in Analyze This? The KGB crowd are busy typing up the “evidence” even as we speak.

Aug 10, 2008 - 7:45 pm 190. OldSalt:

re: Fred – “I firmly believe that if our nation’s citizenry had not been so successfully plied with bullshit from the MSM about our ‘defeat’ in the ‘illegal Iraq war for oil’ our people would be more resolute.”

Well, close. Actually, our enemies were probably more inspired by the political opposition in America abandoning their own troops in the field, while rhetorically with al-Qaeda arguments against the U.S. government. I’m sure Putin knows Lincoln’s quote better than most U.S. pols, i.e. “A house divided against itself cannot stand..”. Putin would not attack Georgia if Germany had not vetoed Georgia’s admission into NATO. And Germany would not have vetoed that admission if the Democrats had not been as successful in hamstringing Bush. Germany would have known that vetoing Georgia’s application to NATO would destroy NATO. Unfortunately, Bush was a weakened President due to the Democrat’s success at dividing a once-unified country.

What seemed politically useful for the Democrats has been, in a time of war, disastrous for American security.

(By the way, as an aside, have you noticed how frequently the colloquialism “dirty war” and “illegal war” shows up in both the lexicon of the American political left and published Russian-sympathetic media reports. Did the FSB create a new KGB “disinformation” play book? I must have missed it. I guess I was off the distribution list this time around.)

Aug 10, 2008 - 7:52 pm 191. neolex:

@Konyok

Idiotic language policies of Ukrainian govt notwithstanding (forcing Ukrainian-dubbed movies?), I sincerely doubt that divisions in Ukraine run deep enough to cause an armed conflict, without a strong internal impetus. I dont it exists now, or would be produced by smth as trivial as Ukrainian govt not allowing ships to dock. If there were no major cases of violence during Orange Revolution, I think it would take a lot to destabilize the situation in Ukraine. Ya tak vazhau.

Aug 10, 2008 - 7:54 pm 192. buddy larsen:

Peace, do you think Putin is taking a chance with this invasion? Why is he so sure of himself? Why does he not fear something will go wrong?

Aug 10, 2008 - 7:55 pm 193. TmjUtah:

OldSalt -

“For now, unfortunately, the Georgian’s will likely face their fate by themselves.”

This is the ground that must be won, sir. Giving up Georgia resets the tape to about 1923, give or take.

Only difference this time around is it will be the Germans in the lead when it comes to selling out anyone necessary in the name of peace.

Western media is incapable of covering this story. If there were any European will to resist, there would be coverage of serious talks underway across the former east bloc countries and NATO.

Aug 10, 2008 - 7:57 pm 194. Konyok:

Reuters is reporting that Kouchner arrived in Tblisi and met with Saakashvili, he leaves for Moscow later today. (It is now 7 am in Georgia, so whatever happens today is beginning now.)
Sarkozy is going to Moscow on Wed or Thurs, bearing the same message as Bush: cease fire and return to status quo ante on Aug. 6.
All we can do is wait and see if the Russians begin an assault on Gori and the Kodori Gorge.

Aug 10, 2008 - 7:59 pm 195. neolex:

In my opinion the blame with Iran getting out of hand, Sudan telling everyone to f*ck off, and what’s going on in Georgia now lies at the feet of:

1) Europe – the short-sighted, self-serving and coward policy of Western European countries have caused the previous two World Wars, and maybe caused the third.
2) Bush & Co – had Bush and his incompetent associate Rumsfeld, not go into Iraq, or at least better conducted a war, US army would not be tied up, giving everyone opportunity to start flipping US off.
3) Clinton – Yugoslavia was a mistake and one that will haunt US for a long time now.

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:03 pm 196. fred:

tmjUtah,

Too many former German politicians working for Gazprom. Any rational and brave German would want to see them dropped from the gallows.

It’s hard to see how Europe could reverse from its current course. They are now so totally dependent upon Russia for gas and oil that I think it impossible.

Ronald Reagan warned them about this back in the eighties. Everyone laughed at him. No one’s laughing now, outside the Kremlin.

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:05 pm 197. Aether:

Important point from the recent posting at Westhawk…

“…both Georgian and U.S. soldiers now have extensive experience in counterinsurgency warfare. This means they have made an extensive study of how insurgencies work, their strengths and vulnerabilities. Master counterinsurgents might make the best insurgents. Perhaps some officials in the Russian chain of command are pondering these notions as they decide what to do next.”

http://westhawk.blogspot.com/2008/08/punitive-raid-or-russian-occupation.html#links

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:09 pm 198. Konyok:

neolex,

Mostly I agree with you. In the day to day these folks don’t have the motivation to oppose Kyiv. But, if Ukrainian forces were to engage with the Black Sea Fleet, all bets would be off. So, I agree that Ukraine will probably take no action.
Ya zhdayu, ya smotryu …

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:09 pm 199. fred:

neolex,

That “linkage” of Kosovo and Georgia is really making the rounds in the blogosphere. I’ve seen it on four other sites. I’m a pretty smart guy, and I cannot see how they are logically linked or related in any way.

Kosovo was a mistake. Giving Muslims a state in Europe was madness. I wasn’t in favor of it, but what can we do about it? Russia didn’t like it, but it was not really a security issue for Russia. There really isn’t anything in Kosovo that Russia needs. It was just an excuse for Putin to bluster and posture about Slavic honor.

But the invasion of Georgia – and I am assuming that Russia is going to take more than Ossetia – is more than a mere mistake. It is theft, murder, and lies. It also helps to support the Mullahs in Tehran, because it removes a U.S. ally north of Iran.

I think I know the provenance of the Kosovo-Georgia Linkage Argument, and I don’t think very highly of him.

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:11 pm 200. fred:

Great, we have Russian agents of disinformation and Buchanan paleo-cons happy with each other on Wretchard’s blog.

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:12 pm 201. Dave:

Cpt Charles in prior posting had best idea I have seen so far. Might or might not still be able to do it. Some variant on the theme would be pssobile, I feel sure.

At any rate, Wretchard has consistently gotten it right: AIRPOWER is THE Key.

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:13 pm 202. TmjUtah:

I see we are on opposite sides of this fence, neolex -

“2) Bush & Co – had Bush and his incompetent associate Rumsfeld, not go into Iraq, or at least better conducted a war, US army would not be tied up, giving everyone opportunity to start flipping US off.”

You fight the war until you win. The Union lost Chancellorsville, lost Fredericksberg. Still one. Same with WW1, WW2. Al Q held on past the point of no return, soon the SFA will be signed and that conflict goes in the ….”W” column. All due respect…

We can handle the Russians tactically, in theater, by establishing air superiority, demonstrating the vulnerability of the Black Sea fleet, and putting troops on the GROUND. It will be a tripwire scenario, and I don’t pretend to know what will happen after that.

But the Russian strategic objective is realized if we (I, too, discount totally EU/UN/NATO assistance) do not act.

I don’t think anybody appreciates just how “spun up” the U.S. military is right now; it is quite unprecedented, and frankly the military is absolutely the most efficient and effective arm of the Federal Government, bar none. Getting there, getting there first, controlling the battle space, and accomplishing the mission… they are the New White Meat for our guys, and have been for the last seven years.

But the commands must be given, or they will remain in garrison.

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:14 pm 203. buddy larsen:

“Gazprom, The Only Choice For Your “Accident”-Free Fuel Needs”

“Gazprom, When You Don’t Want Your Pipelines Blown Up In December”

“Gazprom, When You’re Ready To Pay Everything You’ve Got”

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:16 pm 204. Doug:

On Slog to Safety, Seething at West
It was the question of the day among exhausted Georgians: Where are the United States and NATO.

“We killed as many of them as we could,” he said. “But where are our friends?”

It was the question of the day. As Russian forces massed Sunday on two fronts, Georgians were heading south with whatever they could carry. When they met Western journalists, they all said the same thing: Where is the United States? When is NATO coming?

Since the conflict began, Western leaders have worked frantically to broker a cease-fire. But for Georgians — so boisterously pro-American that Tbilisi, the capital, has a George W. Bush Street — diplomacy fell far short of what they expected.

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:20 pm 205. Dave:

I shall now inform All Good Belmonters why so many fellow traveling useful idiots
say “Russia: Good; Georgia: Bad.

It is safe to badmouth Georgia. It is not so safe to badmouth Done Been Pooten and his
band of kleptocratic psychopaths.

I have never known the (self)righteous indignant to ever take on anybody that would frighten them.

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:20 pm 206. buddy larsen:

Dave, re airpower, just look at the second pic down –no jabo worries there!

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:22 pm 207. Dave:

Buddy Larsen: 8th AAF, huh? My sire was with 15th AAF and proceeded to buy the farm about a month before I arrived in this world.

B 17, for you? P 38 for me.

His unit? 548 confirmed; 88 probable, 227 damaged; 9 ships sunk. 126 locomotives and assorted rolling stock knocked off and 1 Ploesti refinery disabled. Not bad for a
bunch of prototype neocon rednecks, I would say.

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:25 pm 208. Doug:

“Gazprom, Your Delivery is At Our Discretion.”

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:25 pm 209. buddy larsen:

I know it’s easy for me to say, sitting here safe in the USA, but, if George Bush doesn’t do something –even if it fizzles –he’s gonna have a giant wart on his legacy.

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:29 pm 210. Russian Bear:

Peace
I can not agree with your analysis.
Lets come from the assumption that Russia is not going to Tbilisi and is not going to occupy the whole Georgia.
Russia intents, as I see them:
1. To help Georgia to settle her issues with the separatist regions S. Ossetia and Abkhazia once and for good the way Russia likes it, namely to create conditions for their recognized (at least by Russia)independence from Georgia with possible further incorporation of the S. Ossetia into Russia.
2. Show of force? Yes. But not to the West, like you say. The West knows how strong/weak Russia is. All this is about showing Russia’s force and Russia’s readiness to use, Russia’s credibility to the former Soviet republics. To make them more carefull and attentive to Russia’s interests when they build their alliances with other countries.
3. The fall of Saakashvilly would be a desirable outcome for Russia,(looks like Putin hates him) but is not the primary goal. Because any Georgian government after, will stay anti-Russian and pro-Western.
4.Revenge for Kosovo? FALSE! Russia does not have any grievances about Kosovo. Russia objected Kosovo recognition to show her political support and solidarity with the Serbs. If Serbs have swallowed Kosovo, Russia does not care any longer. Of course Russia uses Kosovo as the precedent. The situation in the S. Ossetia is indeed pretty close to the one in Kosovo.
5. The oil pipeline belongs to the Western oil companies. By no means Russia would take it under her control. That would be a scandal.
6. To shake USA pre-voting company-this is laughable. Your pre-election campaign is the last thing Putin and any Russian is concerned of. You can elect Paris Hilton, or Silvester Stallone, or whoever you love.
Well, if the USA put a lot of interest in Georgia, than it can be the USA interests vs Russia interests struggle.But… Why you guys have your interests so far from your home? Just look: Iraq, Georgia… It just creates precedents. Why Russia may not have her interests in the same Georgia. It is a bordering country that was with Russsia fro 200 years.

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:31 pm 211. fred:

Dave,

A lot of journalists seem predisposed to accepting, uncritically, the Russian line/lie about what this conflict is all about. And then people who seem clueless about the event just parrot what they read on the MSM. Not that all of the MSM carries the water for Putin. I read an article from the Guardian yesterday that was surprisingly harsh in its criticism of the Russians, essentially saying that the Ossetian clash was a set-up. And THAT coming from a Guardian U.K. journalist! The Troskysists over there must not be pleased with him or the Guardian for publishing it.

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:32 pm 212. fred:

Russian Bear,

Your neural flatulence would be better spent harnessed for fueling an electrical generator. I think you get a better hearing over at the DailyKos.com, or MoveOn.org, or the HuffingtonPost.com. More receptive audience. You should try them. They might like you over there.

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:34 pm 213. Lifeofthemind:

When Yugoslavia dissolved the Europeans should have ordered Milosovic to a conference to redraw the borders. They should have backed up that threat with real firepower to shut the Russian up. Instead the Serbs thought that the big bear would save them so they went on a killing spree. The Europeans screwed around while the Bosnian Vice President was extracted from an armored personnel carrier manned by French troops and executed. Armed Dutch Nato soldiers were handcuffed to railings as civilians were murdered. After the situation was beyond saving the Americans were called in to bomb Belgrade. If the job had been done right the Serbs would have had a better deal and Milosovic would have been dead in 1993. Tens of thousands of innocents would have lived and radical Islam would not have gotten in. The key point is that the loss of Kosovo is due to the conduct of the Serbian government and army which destroyed what was otherwise a valid claim. The incompetence of the Europeans encouraged aggression and still does.

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:38 pm 214. buddy larsen:

dave, that’s a real bummer you never got to meet him –since he was probably an idiot redneck who didn’t care about other peoples, it was damn nice of him to give his life liberating those Italians from the fascists.

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:44 pm 215. Rob73:

Luckily for us, it seems radical Islam hasn’t really made headroads into Kosovo, Bosnia, or Albania (Macedonia, perhaps, but we didn’t intervene there).
See michaeltotten.com

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:46 pm 216. Lifeofthemind:

Rob73, Hope Totten is right but remember Rust Never Sleeps.

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:51 pm 217. Russian Bear:

fred
Do not like it? Do not buy! But a real democratically minded person must be tolerant to an other person’s opinion.

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:51 pm 218. buddy larsen:

what about a real democratic government, russian bear?

Aug 10, 2008 - 8:57 pm 219. Konyok:

Russian Bear,

You are right, a democratically minded person must tolerate the opinions of others. Which is why so many of us are so suspicious of a nation like Russia with a leader like Volodya Putin.

Can you explain to me why, 15 years after the fall of communism, the only things that Russia exports are weapons and oil?
Can you explain to me why the only candidate for president was Volodya’s silovik? The nation of Tolstoy and Solzhenytsin has adopted the political culture of a Latin American banana republic.
Can you explain to me why Russia supported Saddam Hussein?
Why does Russia support the abuses of dictators, in the name of national sovereignty, and invade Georgia for the sake of humanitarianism?
Can you explain to me why there will be no debate about this conflict in Russia? There will be no anti war movement, there will be no dissent allowed.

Aug 10, 2008 - 9:10 pm 220. Rob73:

Buddy Larsen,
I’m largely on your side, but I also agree with Wretchard–no need to unduly antagonize the Bear (nor, “Russian Bear”)–unless you think that, in the long run, Russia won’t be on our side. . . .

Aug 10, 2008 - 9:11 pm 221. buddy larsen:

Yes, anybody would be popular, if people who don’t like him keep eating dioxin soup, drinking gamma-ray tea, absorbing bullets, and throwing themselves off tall buildings.

Aug 10, 2008 - 9:14 pm 222. Rob73:

By which I mean that the Russians, like most people (incl. Georgians and Americans) are nationalistic, so–Russia does have long-run interests that are congruent with the US, if they can get over their Cold-War hang-up (I’m thinking of Chinese expansion into Siberia, radical Islamic terrorism, etc.) Really, Russia is much less of a threat long-term than some others, don’t you think? So, I’m with Georgia and the Ukraine, for sure, but no need to unduly create hate amongst your average Russian.

Aug 10, 2008 - 9:16 pm 223. Rob73:

Can you explain to me why Russia supported Saddam Hussein?
_______________________________

Well, (mis)perceived national interest would be one story, as opposed to some conspiracy theory. Putin is a (very) dangerous whack-job, don’t get me wrong, but please don’t go overboard on the anti-Russian thing. As I said, we need to cultivate at least the possibility of a long-term alliance with the Russian people. Putin won’t be there forever. They’ll wake up eventually. And, Latin American Banana republics aren’t terribly problematic, are they?

Aug 10, 2008 - 9:20 pm 224. Alexis:

wretchard:

The shorter the time scale, the more difficult it is to hide one’s actions to supply one side or another in a war. Russia knows that any cease-fire would allow Georgia to import a cornucopia of munitions on “lend-lease” terms, so there is little incentive for Russia to stop fighting now. Russia is winning right now. Unless Russia is dealt a military defeat, there may be little reason for Russia to stop fighting.

I think Russian victory in Georgia could potentially become for Greater Russia what the Franco-Prussian War was for Germany. Russia could go from strength to strength, annexing one pro-Russian territory after another to create a new Russian Empire. Prime Minister Putin appears to be successfully using ambiguity in the international customs for recognizing tiny states as a lever against Russia’s neighbors.

I regard any Russian Kosovo-Ossetia linkage to be an implicit abandonment of Kosovo and the Serbs living there to their fate under Albanian rule. The Russian Federation needs to consider carefully whether it ought to use Kosovo as an international precedent. Serbs should also watch Russia’s actions carefully.

Russia’s moves into Georgia are causing consternation in the Baltic. Despite Sweden’s claim that “a new war in the Caucasus is not in anyone’s interest”, Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt’s recent statement about Russia’s justification for war in Georgia being used before by Adolf Hitler was hardly the friendliest statement he could have made about Russian behavior. Such a statement could hardly be regarded to be a sign of neutrality. Sweden is also supporting Finland’s Foreign Minister, Alexander Stubb, in his attempts to bring a cease-fire. Given that Alexander Stubb is known to favor Finland’s membership in NATO, any meeting between Mr. Stubb and Mr. Putin would be, shall we say, interesting.

Aug 10, 2008 - 9:27 pm 225. fred:

Russian Bear,

I don’t have to be tolerant of your opinion. You can state it and I can say I think it’s b.s. I mean, you can blather all you want, but I’m just telling you that we are operating on entirely different information and analysis. I’m just being honest by telling you that there are damn few people here who think your government is doing the right thing by making the move to annex Georgia.

And don’t think I do not know that Russia is arming the Mullahs in Tehran. And having provided critical help with their weapons’ grade enrichment program. You guys think that arming Iran and encouraging them to nuke Israel and threaten us will serve your interests and theirs. Well, it might, but if you think riding the Islamic tiger is a game you can win you are delusional. Islam will eat your lunch and eat you people alive. You’re idiots if you trust those people.

We know all about your agents of disinformation in the West. In fact, we know that there are more of them over here now than there were under the Soviets, which is saying something.

Aug 10, 2008 - 9:31 pm 226. Konyok:

Rob73,

Putin is far from a “wack-job.” He is a rational dictator who is doing the best that he can with a weak hand. In fine Russian tradtion, that means using blunt force and brutality.
Putin is an evil man because he is doing absolutely nothing to solve Russia’s deep structural problems. Russia’s democratic institutions are stillborn. Her economy is on a petroleum fueled “sugar high” that will evaporate if oil prices drop. (One of the things to watch in the current crisis is the Moscow stock exchange – it dropped 6.5% on Friday … )
Putin sees no way for him to distinguish himself as a statesman on the world stage, so he has taken the easy road – obstructing the US at each step.
Latin American banana republics are indeed problematic, they are breeding grounds for revolution and narcoterrorism.

Aug 10, 2008 - 9:35 pm 227. Rob73:

Konyok,
Yes, “whack-job” was quite an ill-chosen word on my part. “Mob-boss” is more like it, b/c that captures your point that he is rational. I do wonder why dictators don’t focus more on structural issues–there is a good book by a Canadian academic called “The Political Economy of Dictatorship” that treats this issue at length, but I’m sorry I can’t (remember it well enough to) distill it into a sentence or two. Still, your point is very well-taken.

Aug 10, 2008 - 9:46 pm 228. buddy larsen:

Rob73, you’re right, of course. I know and enjoy lots of Russians, my daughter having majored in the language and having many Russian friends in the dept at the university, and her boyfriend being Ukraine-born with parents among the wave of Jews released by Gorbachov under perestroika (or was it glasnost?). If i seem harsh toward Russians, it’s because they permit Putin. Inexcusable. This is the 21st century. The world is trying to make progress. Putin gang is a hark back to 80 years ago, it’s very demoralizing.

Aug 10, 2008 - 9:56 pm 229. Rob73:

Buddy Larsen,
Agree completely.

Aug 10, 2008 - 9:59 pm 230. Russian Bear:

buddy larsen

Democratic government? It is a good thing!

One more comment about the article. I see a wrong interpretation of the upcoming battle for the Kodori Pass. The Upper Kodori Gorge is a strategically important bridgehead, now controlled by Georgians. They got control over the area this winter by taking it from the local Swans (one of the Georgian ethnic group) allied to Abkhazians. Abkhazians have not been happy since than, because by advancing from this bridgehead Georgians could make a havoc in the rear of the Abkhazian troops, which are facing Georgian along the Enguri River, and could cut Abkhazia in two parts, threatening their main city Sukhumi. This is why Abkhazians are taking advantage now to regain the Pass. It is important for Abkhazian to secure their positions, but it is absolutely useless for Russians had they wanted to cut the Georgian sea ports off, like the article is stating. Just look at the map. 4000 Russians are already in Ochamchire now. This area is an open plain, good for tank advance. If Russians want to cut the Georgian sea ports, they can easily roll in their tanks to the South. Why should they go in the opposite direction, up to the snowy mountains?
You, guys are so hawkish, but so dilettantish as well. It is just a fun to read what some of you post here.

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:02 pm 231. NahnCee:

But a real democratically minded person must be tolerant to an other person’s opinion.

If it’s stupid and uninformed there is nothing in the US Constitution that says anyone has to be tolerant of anything. YOu can say it, that does NOT mean we have to accept it as gospel.

And we won’t.

Run away, little bear, and play with the other stupid and uninformed wusses of the world whom you can bully with your swagger and your theft of America’s concept of freedom of speech.

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:04 pm 232. Konyok:

Russian bear,

I do have to agree with you that Kodori Gorge looks more useful for advance from Georgia into Abkhazia than vice versa.

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:08 pm 233. Rob73:

Russian Bear,
What I don’t get is why you don’t want Sukhumi to become like Miami Beach, Hilton Head, or Santa Monica? Come on, we’ve got the inducements. . . . don’t resist, sign on board, buddy–it’s easy!

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:10 pm 234. buddy larsen:

Yes, russian bear, don’t forget, in the America we have the American girls with the big breasts, and they love you wild and crazy guys!

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:15 pm 235. rcm:

Not an analyst, but I just moved my perspective a little higher into space and saw something quite disturbing on my charts:

What if the Russian goal is not to “take” Georgia, but to go all the way through to Azerbaijan? From there, link up with Iran in order to help counter any impending air campaign against Iran.

Go all the way through Georgia, bluff/scare Azerbaijan and pick up air bases in that country from which to threaten or interdict the forces attacking in Iran.

Worse case? Using bases in Iran to air launch cruise missile attacks on US and allied capital ships and make any assault hugely painful.

Too off the wall? I know it is very risky, but Putin is KGB. Scares me to death and I’m fearless.

My sense is that we seem to be underestimating what Russia’s true intentions are as they continue their march and I fear we may not be thinking “big” enough. Just what is going on on the other side of the Caucasus?

Just a thought.

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:23 pm 236. Rob73:

Actually, for all the teasing (and, I hope he sees it as no more than that) I hope “Russian Bear” sticks around. He’s got his view, but he makes some decent points–as Konyok says, and as I’ve posted a couple of times on these numerous threads, I think that the Kodori Gorge issue is a bit of a sideshow re: any real Russian incursion into Georgia proper. Kodori Gorge is more about a micro-issue of national fiefdoms, kind of like how many ethnic Georgian villages in S. Ossetia Georgia gets to keep when Russia annexes S. Ossetia. Not unimportant, but not my main cup o’ tea.

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:25 pm 237. Rob73:

rcm:
Interesting, but I doubt it–if that were the case, why wouldn’t Russia just go straight for Baku? Who needs Georgia? Plus, they could enlist the Armenians (not that I have anything against the Armenians, but the Caucasus is a treacherous place, and obv. the cooperation of the latter could likely be induced by securing their claim on Nagarno-Karabakh).

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:31 pm 238. Evil Pundit:

I also welcome Russian Bear’s contributions to the discussion, though I may not agree with them.

One impression that strikes me is that the Russians don’t seem to be using their most advanced equipment in Georgia. Are they keeping it in reserve for something else?

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:42 pm 239. buddy larsen:

rcm, been having the same sort of thoughts, but in re oil & gas. West is rightly worried sick about monopoly-enabled punitive pricing, but what about a complete cut-off?

Putin, having started fresh after Russia went belly up and defaulted on its debts, now has 3rd largest foreign reserves in the world –so clearly the natural resources trump everything else, and regardless of what they do, the market is there for them.

Russia in current ”f-you, west” mode, could just experiment with it, just give ”no oil & gas for you” a try –and ride it out indefinitely. Russia & China both have rapidly growing domestic markets, and oil is a finite resource.

And if such a ploy doesn’t work to their satisfaction, they can just change their minds and reopen the valves –nobody will complain much –be too happy to have it back on line.

Lessee, hmm, do we remember how to properly grovel?

Aug 10, 2008 - 10:58 pm 240. RAH:

I don’t believe that a US naval vessel other than submarines have ever been in the Black Sea. That would be akin to the Russian doing operations off Norfolk or Florida. I checked Operation Endeavor and that was through the Straits of Gibraltar not the Strait of Bosphorus.

We have very little ability to transit troops and armor into Georgia. No access from land or sea. Even air would need permission from Turkey. Russian navy controls the Black Sea. If we tried to ship troops across from Romania they would get interdicted and be a public embarrassment.

The alleged black American also had slanted eyes and the photo did not look American. I doubt that this is an American, just propaganda.

I saw the offloading of Georgian troops at the airport and did not see vehicles with them. Does not mean that it did not happen just not shown.

I have been checking the topography of Georgia and Tskhinvali is in the valley and the surrounding hills and ridges give great cover for Georgian forces. Considering they retreated under fire and managed to inflict damage and then falling back to Gori, I think that they did a good job. However about 30 tanks according to news and it may be less or more were destroyed out of a force of 82 tanks that Georgia has according to Janes.

There is a ridge and river crossing from Gori to Tbilisi at Mtskheta that would make a good defensive position . The mountains to the south would prevent Russian tanks and a bridge over a river makes a narrow defile to defend. Supposedly Russia is trying to split the western and eastern sections of Georgia apart and grab the eastern section which flows toward the Black Sea. The port town of Poti was damaged and it was building new port facilities for international shipping. The bombing of Zugdidi and Senaki are pretty far inland from the Black Sea. According to Georgia Times Russian did try to bomb the main road from Armenia to Poti and destroy the bridge but was unsucessful. I have yet to hear about the Georgian Su 25 fate and how many they had. Supposeedly the Russsina said that only a C 200 anti aircraft system would have taken down their bomber and only Ukrian had that system.

The Russian did bomb the radar installation on Mt. Makhata near Tbilisi on Monday. The Russian are obviously concerned about anti aircraft fire. I think they have air superiority and the Georgia have had their navy and air force reduced to ineffective status. Georgia is still holding the upper Kodori Gorge and they repulsed Russian advance on Gori.

Russian supposedly transported another 90 tanks and more support vehicles with paratroopers above the tunnel. Right now it is a standoff, international opinion and logistics have stopped advances on Tbilisi. I believe the Russian will concentrate on the Black Sea coast to grab more sea coast and build up forces to threaten Tbilisi to surrender.

Georgia needs to realize that even if we wished to intervene it will take time to get support there and they have to fight it to the bitter end, if Russian does not agree to a cease fire and operation.

Aug 10, 2008 - 11:07 pm 241. Doug:

That’s why it’s important that the Dems draw down the strategic reserve that Bush spent 7 years building back up after Clinton, Buddy.
Nice token gesture for moronic left voters, setting up more perfect conditions for the Great Gas Cutoff Experiments.

Aug 10, 2008 - 11:15 pm 242. mika.:

The ones most to benefit from enmity between orthodox christian Moscow and orthodox christian Tbilisi are the Turks and the Jihadi world. Everything Tbilisi has, it got as a gift from Russia. If it wasn’t for the Russians, there would be no Tbilisi and no Georgia. The muslim Turks would have annihilated them all. Looking at the latest premeditated attack by that US installed stooge and complete moron Saakashvili, I see just another sad example where US economic and geopolitical machinations have been highjacked by the Saudis and the oil mafia. (Fred, that’s the real connection to Kosovo).

Aug 10, 2008 - 11:21 pm 243. RAH:

Things the US can do:

1) It does have to overt
2) Becasue we need to send a strong message to Russia.
3) We can have a large UK/EU/USA fleet in the Mediterranean and can sail for Turkey on the other side of the Strits. That isa large nava/air presence.
4) We have not withdrawn our training officers and 1000 troops that are there and will not do so. They are in Gori and Tbilisi. If the Russian try to take them it will be an act of war against the US.

5)US will not go to war over Georgia. Risks are too high and we are a nuclear power. But we can without words threaten with a presence nearby.

Aug 10, 2008 - 11:23 pm 244. Rob73:

Mika,
OK, I see what you’re saying, but please look up “reductionist” in the dictionary.

Aug 10, 2008 - 11:23 pm 245. Russian Bear:

Konyok
Can you explain to me why, 15 years after the fall of communism, the only things that Russia exports are weapons and oil?Well, probably because after the end of the Soviet Union, Russians had a lot of American advisers to the Yeltsyn’s government on economics and finances.
Can you explain to me why the only candidate for president was Volodya’s silovik?
Well Medvedev is not “a silovik”, he never even served in military. He is a lawyer. Like Hillary, Bill Clinton or John Edwards. And he was not the only candidate. There were 4 more.
Can you explain to me why Russia supported Saddam Hussein?
Actually, Russia did not support Saddam Hussein. Russia supported the International Law. Russia objected the USA planned invasion in Iraq. Russia did not want the USA to create a precedent for Russia to invade Georgia later, just for “the regime change”. Alas, the USA did not listen to Russia (and the whole world)…
Why does Russia support the abuses of dictators, in the name of national sovereignty, and invade Georgia for the sake of humanitarianism? Do not the USA do the same?
There are dictators in Pakistan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and if to go back to the 50th-80th… Oh, the whole Latin America, S. Korea, S. Vietnam… the Shah, but the USA selected Grenada or Nicaragua…
Can you explain to me why there will be no debate about this conflict in Russia? There will be no anti war movement, there will be no dissent allowed.
It takes time for debate to unfold. There is dissent about Chechen war now. Why there will not be about the present war? The story is just too new and it will be over on the day after tomorrow. But a lot of Russians are sympathizing to Georgians even now. See, at the Olympics, in Beijing, a Russian girl Natalya Paderina won a silver in shooting, and a Georgian girl Nino Salukvadze won a bronze. They hug each other, and the Russian girl kissed her. How do you like it? If you read in Russian, you can find about it here:
http://grani.ru/War/m.139858.html
The other opposition sites (some in English):
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/600/42/369686.htm
http://newtimes.ru/news/2008-08-10/2008-08-10-2/
http://grani.ru/Politics/World/Europe/Georgia/m.139787.html

Aug 10, 2008 - 11:25 pm 246. Rob73:

Mika,
If your *real* concern is Muslim attacks on the Slavs, why don’t you *welcome* US influence in Georgia? Together, the US-controlled Georgians and the Russian-controlled Ossetians can slay the beast??!!

Aug 10, 2008 - 11:26 pm 247. Rob73:

/sarc off

Aug 10, 2008 - 11:30 pm 248. mika.:

Rob,
I have no problem with that. I think China, Russia, India, the US, the EU, have great common interest here. It’s sad to see how the Jihadi jackals have been playing us one against the other all these years.

Aug 10, 2008 - 11:36 pm 249. mika.:

Aug 10, 2008 - 11:37 pm 250. buddy larsen:

Russian stocks open down 2%, fall rapidly to currently down 5%. Down 6.5% on Friday on early invasion news, down 22% since high in late 06. Today, after a feww hours open, CNBC is reporting large liquidations by ”indirect” (foreign) investors. Oil futures Asia and Europe pre-mkt up, but not much, a dollar roughly at the moment. Without the war, my guess is the trade would’ve continued the several week old retracement. Such a small gain on such news as this war indicates weak bid, and a continued downtrend –if the war stops soon, and the pipeline seems safe. Of course, that is snapshot at 2:00 A.M. in the USA, CST.

So, early indications are that the oil markets appear to be taking the war in stride, by & large. But, the big traders will come in when the NYMEX opens in a few hours –and the whole picture could change.

Aug 10, 2008 - 11:59 pm 251. Rob73:

Mika,
Well, let’s not *let* them play off of us then. . . . Russia has been occupying S. Ossetia and Abkhazhia for the past 15 years–so, take it. On the other hand, Georgia is not planning on entering NATO b/c NATO is plotting to dismember Russia (give me a break!). So, we have slightly different ways of doing things–let’s cooperate rather than fight about them–ultimately they are not trivial things, but they are not things it’s worth *fighting* about–like the US does not fight with Brazil or India, even though we don’t see everything the same way.

Aug 11, 2008 - 12:00 am 252. Rob73:

And, when I say “take it,” don’t think I don’t value the Sukhumi massacre–I’m just trying to take a hopefully “reasonable” measure between revenge-based and forward-looking compromises–which, I guess, with the passage of time, I think inclines towards the latter. I guess I’m a pragmatic. Someone whose parents were killed by the Abkhaz mobs could well call me an appeaser, but I think that the costs of true justice after 15 years is just too high–hmm, the more I specify it, the more I actually want to arm the Georgians, funny that.

Aug 11, 2008 - 12:18 am 253. buddy larsen:

Doug, don’t get me started –just when you think Pelosi & crew can’t get any stupider, they find another way to get stupider still. If Ivan is kicking our ass around, that’s sure no surprise, no nation can function properly with a legislative branch that really, honestly, should be running a lemonade stand somewhere at best, and even that under close supervision.

IOW, we asked for it, and now we’re getting it. Or, our ally is, anyway. But ours is coming, you can bet — just look into Pelosi & Reid’s eyes and you can’t help but know, we shouldn’t have done what we did in 2006, it was a moron too far to hope to escape without serious damage.

Aug 11, 2008 - 12:23 am 254. Rob73:

Well, I will check back in here as soon as I get up and do my work and have some coffee–my prayers rest with a Georgian victory (i.e., stopping the Russians from taking Gori), but also with as few Russian casualties as possible.

Aug 11, 2008 - 1:43 am 255. Information Central - Mythusmage Opines:

[...] Belmont Club » Who’s winning Georgia Part 2 [...]

Aug 11, 2008 - 5:05 am 256. cedarford:

Well, now we have a situation where a fellow European nation, a new democracy at that, asked for admission to the “big club”, pledged to put it’s blood on the line in defense of Europe proper (and to actually spend the money to do it). NATO said “Nein”, and now Georgia is probably a province of the reconstituted USSR.

Thank God that two Wold Wars and nearly 100 million dead in pre-nuclear days, taught the Europeans the lesson of the massive danger of entangling alliances better than the US learned after General Washington, then forgot. We followed Washington’s wisdom most of our history, but then plunged into entaglements in the Cold War as we raced to embrace the (anti-communist) thug of the week or “dear friends” in areas we had no vital interest in.

Fortunately the Germans were smarter than the American neocons that wanted a NATO commitment to go to war against Russia over an unstable new country that was in the Russian sphere of interest for 500 years and part of Russia since 1801 – saddled with significant territorial disputes with their breakaway “main nation”.

Luckily the Germans, after two great destructions, and the French after their shame of loss of sovereignity for backing Polish intransigence over Danzig – believe in the danger of overreach and entangling alliances more than America, stuffed with hubris and worship of high tech weapon toys as solutions to diplomacy “send in the B-2s and F-22s to kill Russians!!” , does.

Washington’s words of wisdom were targeted mainly against the French, whom America in Washinton’s era basically owed their existence and defeat of the British at Yorktown, to. Disraeli noted later that nations do not have permanent friends (and obligations to die for such “pals forever”), only permanent interests.

The neocons and even the Clintonistas full of faith in “nation-building”, contemptuous of carefully considered treaties that DO bind us to mutual defense after careful consideration and review by Congress and other treatied allies – now propose a “feel good diplomacy” of exactly such “loyal friends and entanglements” committing the US to intervention and even war if our “dear friends who fought at our side” ever need us.

Such people would have had Americans capitulate to French interests in the XYZ Affair, then decimated in the Napoleonic Wars because we “owed our French friends” who fought at our side..

Same saber-waving people who, contemporarily, want “our special friend” Israel, Georgia, Ukraine, the noble purple-fingered freedom lovers of Iraq and Afghanistan inside NATO – or unilateral guarantees that America will die and bleed treasure for those nations future wars and instabiliies.

======================
RAH – “We have very little ability to transit troops and armor into Georgia. No access from land or sea. Even air would need permission from Turkey.”

Yep. and add that any US military response would likely have to rely on permission for basing logistics, overflight, and refueling from European countries not keen to get entangled in this. Alas, for the neocons, Europe and European alignment with the USA is still 100X more important strategically to the USA than their “special friend” Israel…

=================
Russian Bear – “Konyok
Can you explain to me why, 15 years after the fall of communism, the only things that Russia exports are weapons and oil?” Well, probably because after the end of the Soviet Union, Russians had a lot of American advisers to the Yeltsyn’s government on economics and finances.

And Russians woke up 10 years after the fall of communism to find themselves poorer and vastly worse off as the crony capitalist corruption of Yeltsin and his advisors had put most of Russia’s natural resource wealth and media in the hands to the Chechen, Jewish mafias..and in the hands of sharks who became the multibillionaire oligarchs through Jewish financier connections.

Much of Putin’s reign, though by no means free of corruption, was in reclaiming Russia’s wealth from the rapacious swindlers that used bribery and outside money to buy and bribe their way into control of the Russian assets and economy. Putin’s great success against the Mafias and the oligarchs has led Russian citizens to give Russia’s elected government among the highest marks of any major country in “leadership is moving our nation in the right direction.” (54%).
Contrast that with the USA, where only 18% believe America has gone in the right direction in the last 4 years.

Aug 11, 2008 - 5:19 am 257. chuck,:

Let’s give the Devil his due. Putin had one card, oil, and has played it brilliantly. He has rendered NATO an empty uniform, neutralized and neutered the EU. He will recover the lost territories of the USSR. He will form an Axis of Oil with a Greater Iran, and then pay us back for wrecking his precious Soviet Union. Well played, Esteemed Mr Putin!

But if a nobody in the USA might venture a word of advice, would such a revenge be wise? Your country is great and powerful but very brittle. You need time and lots of it to repair the damage of the last century, particularly in the area of demographics. Meanwhile, your neighbors with whom you have nothing in common except a dislike of America are growing and growing fast. Do you think you can hold on to your pretty oil and gas fields all by yourself? Perhaps you would like being a suburb of Bejing. Wouldn’t an “understanding” with the USA, one based on mutual respect, mutual self interest, and mutual dangers be better? Moscow/Washington could turn the northern hemisphere into a zone of mutual defense, security and prosperity. We can even build that tunnel under the Bering Straights you were talking about. As for Europe, it’ll be our themepark. So whadda say, Vlad? Have we a deal?

Aug 11, 2008 - 5:23 am 258. Right Wing Nut House » GEORGIA ON MY MIND:

[...] Follow along with the map and look inside the mind of Putin: (HT: Belmont Club) [...]

Aug 11, 2008 - 6:18 am 259. fred:

“Actually, Russia did not support Saddam Hussein. ” The Russian Bear

I can see you’re used to telling whopping lies.

Aug 11, 2008 - 6:42 am 260. nichevo:

cedarford, why did you bother serving in the Armed Forces? You would only have to fight the US’ enemies, which you obviously have no stomach to do. It must have made you really uncomfortable sitting in a silo pointed at your Russian friends.

Aug 11, 2008 - 6:53 am 261. Aether:

RAH:

“Supposeedly the Russsina said that only a C 200 anti aircraft system would have taken down their bomber and only Ukrian had that system.”

ONLY a C-200 Anit Aircraft system could take down the Tu-22 ?

Surely there are multitudes of Western built AA systems capable of taking down that Tupolov bomber. I’m very much wondering what Western anti-tank and anti-armor waponery the Georgians have been supplied with.

Please rmember the US and Isreal have been conducting Train AND Equip missions in Gerogia for Years… and the Georgians are making a pretty good showing of themselves, all things considered

Aug 11, 2008 - 6:55 am 262. S:

wretchard:

Are you suggesting we can’t supply them with arms above-board?

That decision to take down the merchant of death is looking a tad shortsided at the moment…Wonder if he suddenly emerges froma thai jail..

Aug 11, 2008 - 9:49 am 263. ReCon USMC:

WHERE IS THE UN HIDING ??????? !
WHERE IS OUR CONGRESS HIDING ???????? !
WHERE IS OUR PRESIDENT HIDING ??????? !
WHERE IS OUR MEDIA HIDING ??????? !
WHERE IS NATO HIDING ??????? !
WE KNOW WHERE PM , PUTIN KGB
HEAD IS AT ALONG WITH HIS RUSSIAN TROOPS PLANES AND WAR SHIPS ..
HE IS NOT HIDING IN GEORGIA WERE THE OIL AND PIPE LINE TO THE WEST IS AT !!!!!!!
I GUESS AMERICA FORGOT GEORGIAN TROOPS ARE IN IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN HELPING AMERICA .

Aug 11, 2008 - 9:52 am 264. Sandra M:

Tom Clancy has a video game called GHOST RECONS (look it up on Wikipedia). Written years ago, it not only predicted Russia’s invading Georgia, but it predicted the year and the month of the invasion. I don’t play video games but are there any stories along these lines?

If Putin gets his hands on yet another oil pipeline expect the price of oil to go skyhigh. Have you signed the DRILL HERE, DRILL NOW petition yet?

Tiny Israel was attacked by the entire Arab world soon after becoming a nation. And she beat them all in what? six days? Afghani tribal warriors living a primitive life out of the middle ages — but trained and equipped with OUR stinger missiles and satellite phones –defeated the Soviets in Afghanistan.

Things may initially go well for Putin but this is still a “Soviet” military. Russians used the word “soviet” to describe things that didn’t work, appliances that broke down, etc.

Aug 11, 2008 - 10:24 am 265. Russian Bear:

RE: fred: “Actually, Russia did not support Saddam Hussein. ” The Russian Bear can see you’re used to telling whopping lies.

What do you mean by “supported Saddam Hussein@.
Had trade relations? Voted against USA military action in the UN? That was normal attitude in accordance with international law. Germany, France China did the same. It is called “neutrality”. In WW-II Sweden sold their iron raw to Germany. That was neutrality to. In Iraq-Iran war in 1987 the USA sold components for chemical weapon (WMD) to Saddam Hussein. Was that a support of Saddam Hussein?

Aug 11, 2008 - 10:29 am 266. Konyok:

Russian Bear,

It is very bad form to answer questions with falsehoods. The USA never sold chemical weapons or precursers to Saddam. If you can actually prove that allegation, you will make international news. You know very well that Saddam was a client of the Soviet Union and received most of his weapons and technical support from the Soviets. Do you imagine for a moment that the USA would give a Soviet aligned dictator potential evidence that it was violating chemical warfare treaties? Do you imagine for a moment that the Soviet Union would have hesitated to shout to the world that the Americans were violating treaties?

You mention 4 candidates for president. Four Potyomkin candidates. Can you imagine the uproar in the US if Ralph Nader were arrested for any reason? We would have a revolution if Barack Obama were to be harassed by the Bush administration in any way whatsoever. Volodya Putin used the instruments of state power to manipulate the election process and place an unknown man as president of Russia. Now we see that the bear cub is a Potyomkin president, Volodya holds the power. (You are right Medvedev is not a “silovik,” he lacks the eggs, he is a minor apparatchik, an oil lawyer, a new Russian with a pinkie ring.)

Of course Russia supported Saddam. Rossneft held a contract to develop Iraq’s Rumaila field – potentially 15 billion barrels.

You mumbled something about American advisors to Yeltsin being responsible for Russia never developing a proper economy like a proper, normal country. Consider Japan. Fifteen years after their country was destroyed, after they suffered nuclear weapons attack they were already exporting cars, cameras and electronics to the rest of the world.
Consider China. They abandoned Stalinist central planning and developed export manufacturing.
In both cases, at first their products were terrible, but they were patient and diligent and now Japan has the best reputation for quality in the world and the Chinese are getting better every year.

So, why does the homeland of bardak have nothing decent to sell to the world? Russia is a banana republic. It sells oil like any colony. The only superior product of Russia is the Kalashnikov. Everything else produced in Russia is garbage.
It is so much easier to blame the foreigners than to get off of your lazy asses and get to work. Just as in 1905, the Japanese shame the Russians. Just as in 1905, the Russians comfort themselves with false pride.

It will be good old fashioned Russian bardak that give the Georgians a victory.

Aug 11, 2008 - 10:57 am 267. Understanding the Caucasus « Thoughts Of A Conservative Christian:

[...] Fernandez (Wretchard) of the Belmont Club has several crackling good pieces up at his site. He believes the Russians are far from finished [...]

Aug 11, 2008 - 11:59 am 268. Calling on hypocrats:

What about Kosovo ” hypocrisy”? ANYONE? so, I taught. You all would rather avoid it all together.
I hold the view that Kosovo’s independence and western Balkan meddling justifies Russia’s own intervention.Taste your own medicine so called “West”

I think they’ve ” [Georgia] made not just a tactical, but a strategic mistake, because it was clear – and they were warned – that if they tried to occupy South Ossetia or Abchazia, they will be reminded of the western approach to Kosovo independence. Kosovo’s independence is a model for people in Ossetia and Abchazia. They even declared independence again after Kosovo declared its independence, and Georgia and President Saakashvili should have known that if they try to occupy Southern Ossetia, the Russian response may be very strong. To start a war against a world power, is I think a very big mistake on their part.

We cannot change the situation. We can participate in the European Union negotiations and promote – there especially – the same standards for everybody. But after the Czech Republic recognised Kosovo, nobody can take us seriously if we refuse the wishes of the Abchazian and South Ossetian people to have independence. I must say that I don’t like these changes of boundaries. We should work to make boundaries unimportant, but it will take some time. But when we changed the principle by recognising the independence of Kosovo, by taking one part of a country, cutting it from the territory of a country, then we may have very similar problems all over the world.

ENJOY IT! NO WHINING NOW! The US created the law of jungle.

Aug 11, 2008 - 12:22 pm 269. RAH:

Well I heard that Georgian forces are falling back to defensive positions at Mtskheta as I predicted in an earlier post. They have to because after that river crossing it is a straight run to Tbilisi.

Aug 11, 2008 - 12:26 pm 270. Alan Kellogg:

I see the puti-trolls are still at it. Bloviation writ dumb. As author Harlan Ellison put it, “You have the right to your own opinion. You don’t have the right to your own facts.”

Last I heard Gori has fallen. No word on the state of the Georgian army, one can only hope it remains in fighting shape. Since Tbilisi is in rough terrain it’s likely the Russians will be slowed down

According to one map I’ve seen Georgia has a third autonomous region on the border with Turkey. Will Ankara occupy the region to deny it to the Russians? Will the region become a safe haven for Georgians? What would the Russians do if presented with such a fiat accompli?

As for Azerbaijan and Armenia, is anybody keeping an eye on them? Any word on what they’re doing? The last I checked Armenia has evacuated their citizens in Georgia, and has assisted foreign nationals in evacuating. I have emailed an Armenian news agency, but have yet received no reply.

Are talks ongoing between Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan regarding intervention on Georgia’s behalf? Is Washington consulting with the three concerning actions to be taken. While the four countries — Turkey, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan — have their differences, they are united by their alliances with the United States. Given the prospect of a starving bear on their borders, will they fight alongside an eagle?

Aug 11, 2008 - 12:52 pm 271. fred:

I’m getting tired of hearing that ridiculous meme propagated by the Buchanan people that Georgia is payback for Kosovo. They are not related, since there is nothing similar about the countries, resources, location, or even “security” interests for the Russians. Putin was beating his chest about Kosovo (admittedly it was a mistake on our part to give Muslims a state in Europe)in order to build himself up as the hero of the Slavs. Kosovo was propaganda b.s. for Russia, and nothing more. I just cannot believe how credulous and stupid the paleo-cons can be.

Georgia is about resources, location, and to cow all the other former satellites into line. It is about denying Europe the oil from the pipeline. It is about telling Western Europe that Russia owns them and everyone knows it.

“Calling on hypocrats” you are a dope if you cannot see the details and the differences. You are an agent of dizinformatzia because you are falsely conflating the two countries which have nothing in common in any sense whatsoever.

This stupid and shallow argument keeps making the rounds in the blog world and I am utterly amazed that it has the life it has.

Aug 11, 2008 - 1:07 pm 272. buddy larsen:

What about Grozny? Why isn’t Kosovo payback for Grozny?

Aug 11, 2008 - 2:24 pm 273. fred:

buddy,

I think he’s fled the thread. Just another Russian who’s following orders and making the required appearance. And you won’t get an honest answer from the likes of him.

Aug 11, 2008 - 2:59 pm 274. Gerry O.:

Estonia sending cyber defense experts to Georgia:
http://www.networkworld.com/community/node/30935

Aug 11, 2008 - 3:23 pm 275. Russian Bear:

To Konyok:
I wish I could “make international news”, but the things, you seem to be not aware of, are well known to the world and had been published million times. Just make search on “USA, Iraq chemical weapon”. I just picked a few links:
http://www.counterpunch.org/boles1010.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2002/12/31/world/main534798.shtml
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines02/0908-08.htm
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=980DE5DE1F3DF932A15751C1A9649C8B63
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2005/nov/15/usa.iraq
The USSR had a planned economy, which was not competitive in quality of the goods. And the economy they had was totally destroyed in 1990-th. So, Russia almost started her market economy from scratch. Russian businessmen do what is profitable. This is market after all. Nobody can say: “You, Ivan open a factory to make this, and you Misha have to produce that!” This is why Russia has to sell the raw materials and weapons. She sells what she has to sell.

Aug 11, 2008 - 3:52 pm 276. Belmont Club » Voluntary amputation:

[...] Drift, it is the inner “bags of mealies” wall. In the comments section of an earlier post, I wrote: The Poles were encircled and cut off from each other by a forward defense strategy that [...]

Aug 11, 2008 - 4:16 pm 277. Russian Bear:

Fred: Georgia certainly is not a Russian revenge for Kosovo, or payback for Kosovo. Not if you see it from Russian side. But they use the same words and rhetorhic the USA used when they bombed Serbia over Kosovo. So, from your side, Georgia is “a payback”. You created the precedent and you got it.
It started as long as in 1992, when during the first uprising in Kosovo, Miloshevich abolished Kosovo autonomy. The USA president G. Bush Sr. made an encouraging for Albanians statement that USA would protect Kosovo Albanians. After that Kosovo insurgency was fanned, supported politically, assisted financially and militarily by the West, mostly by the USA, as the instrument to remove Miloshevich from power. The KLA was taken off from the USA terrorist organizations list. The USA Albanians volunteered to join the KLA. The KLA tactics was to provoke Serbs by attacking and ambushing them, and each time Serbs were the ones to blame. Kosovo Albanians staged humanitarian “catastrophe” and “genocide” by leaving their villages in front of Serbian advance (often under the KLA order), and each time the judge was a USA ambassador in Macedonia, who from the first glance could identify the victims of the shootings as “poor civilian Kosovars killed by cruel Serbs”. How all this ended? The USA said, that Serbs had lost their moral right to govern Kosovo.

What happens with Ossetia is pretty similar. Ossetians wanted to separate from Georgia. There was inter-ethnic conflict with a lot of civilian casualties and destructions. Russians protected Ossetians by sending their peacekeepers there. They promised them further protection. They said they would not allow any military actions by Georgians. Ossetians denied access for Georgian to their area. They had their own elections, they kept provoking Georgians by shooting at their villages. And Russians blamed Georgians all the time. This time Georgians attacked the Ossetian capital causing heavy civilian casualties. Russians called it “genocide” and “humanitarian catastrophe”. They intervened to push Georgians out of Koso… err, form S. Ossetia. Where you see the difference?
That Milosevich was “a thug” and Saakashvilly is “a nice guy”? Well, this is a matter of tastes. And how can you explain it to the dead Ossetians?
What is next? I think Russians are going to make a statement that Georgia lost its moral right to govern S. Ossetia and Abkhazia…
P.S. Separation of this two regions from is the Russian objective. The pipe stays aside and has nothing to do with this Russian operation. The pipe is not the Georgian only property. It was built with the money from a few Western oil companies, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Turkey. Russia has good relations with all of them other than Georgia. Russia’s oil business is going well. She is getting her dollars- this pipe is not an obstacle. Why would Russia go after the pipe? Just to get in troubles?

Aug 11, 2008 - 5:03 pm 278. Konyok:

Russian Bear,

The one valid point in your links is the sale of phosphorous oxychloride, a precursor chemical for nerve gas. I do not know the scale of the sales or whether if can be accounted for by other legitimate uses. Interestingly, the links indicated that the US sold much less material to Saddam than other western countries.

Japan started from nothing, China started from a planned economy more primitive than the Soviet Union’s.

The irony here is that if I wanted to boycott Russian goods, there isn’t anything available to me to choose not to buy. The only thing that I have ever seen with a “Made in Russia” label is low quality textiles.

For a nation as well educated as Russia, it is impossible to understand why she is so unable to develop as a proper country. Soon, India will overtake Russia as an industrial power.

Aug 11, 2008 - 7:01 pm 279. JJ Joseph:

@mika:

“The ones most to benefit from enmity between orthodox christian Moscow and orthodox christian Tbilisi are the Turks . . .”

Without Russia backstopping them, Georgia would be fast lunch for the Turks. Georgia will never have it so good again. Georgians, individually (don’t forget Stalin) & collectively, are total morons.

Aug 11, 2008 - 10:31 pm

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