372 Comments

1. NahnCee:

Why are all the questions in the past tense rather than present or future?

The information war will be from now on.

Aug 12, 2008 - 3:54 pm 2. Pascal:

Simplest answers to your first two questions: 1. Incursions on sites like this increased volume noticeably.
2. Ask Condie Rice what she told Saakashvili last week; filter the answer.

Aug 12, 2008 - 3:57 pm 3. someone:

#1: Well, it irritated many blog comment readers, for one…

But yes, why past tense? No sign anything has actually stopped.

Aug 12, 2008 - 4:05 pm 4. wretchard:

Why the past tense? Just to bound the time of discussion, but don’t let it stop you.

Aug 12, 2008 - 4:07 pm 5. Eggplant:

Here’s one Georgian site that’s still active because it’s on an American server:

http://georgiamfa.blogspot.com/2008_08_01_archive.html

The Russian cyberwarfare guys have been fairly effective with Denial of Service attacks against Georgian URLs. It has also been clear that a bunch of Russian FSB guys are posting anonymous agitprop at the political blogs (seen a bunch of it here at Belmont Club).

Wretchard,

Is there anyway you can filter out the FSB people?

Aug 12, 2008 - 4:10 pm 6. wretchard:

Eggplant,

It’s an issue and I’ve shut down the Georgian threads because the noise-to-signal ratio was increasing. My guess is that agitprop guys will mosey off once I start talking about Rielle Edwards. More later. I have to go to a meeting.

Aug 12, 2008 - 4:13 pm 7. sirius_sir:

Were there any signs of info war preparation?

You mean like Pravda?

Aug 12, 2008 - 4:15 pm 8. Eggplant:

Wretchard said:

“My guess is that agitprop guys will mosey off once I start talking about Rielle Edwards.”

Oh please no… I’d rather read Russian agitprop.

Aug 12, 2008 - 4:19 pm 9. mika.:

“Oh please no… I’d rather read Russian agitprop.”

It’s not what you read, it’s what you don’t read. And Wretchard is as guilty here as any of the supposed FSB commentators.

Aug 12, 2008 - 4:27 pm 10. nichevo:

I dunno…they did not annoy me that much, and it is insightful to see them work. Inasmuch as they had anything valid or valid-sounding to say it forces us to sharpen our arguments, no?

While I am entirely happy imposing American will on a me-Tarzan-you-Jane basis, I am also happy to hear why we should not consider ourselves hoist by our own petards.

BTW Jack Chambers was a fake. It was not the Red Sox who won last year, it was the “f^@!ing Red Sox.”

I fear that them getting you to shut down counts as a soft kill.

Aug 12, 2008 - 4:34 pm 11. Rob:

I don’t know if this is that surprising, but in the discussion threads in the UK press (Guardian, Times, Telegraph), it seemed to me the vast majority of people blamed Georgia and the US for what happened.

Aug 12, 2008 - 4:36 pm 12. Doug:

FCC Commissioner Return of Fairness Doctrine Could Control Web Content

Aug 12, 2008 - 4:41 pm 13. Doug:

That’s bait and switch to get us salivating for Rielle,
and then take off for a meetings.
Something Smells Fishy.

Aug 12, 2008 - 4:43 pm 14. hdgreene:

There were times I missed Cedarford, because he’s got such a clear track record. And Teresita? I would just figure she’s trying to get voted off the island. But all that passion for the South Ossetian cause kind of, well, surprised. Because when the bear attacks the goat, sometimes the innocent butterflies get trampled. The fact that there was so much sympathy and so few butterflies was a tip off.

Of course the Soviet Union left a sloppy map behind. But trying to straighten it out with armored columns is not the way to go — unless, of course, your aim is to put it back together.

Personally, I think the Georgians saw the Russian offensive coming (infiltration of special ops dressed as civilians, followed by the massing of armored formations might be a tip off — but I’m not a military man). From the size, there was no reason to suppose they planned on stopping short of taking the Tbilisi. Perhaps the Georgians went into South Ossetia to grab some choke points to slow the advance. Just a guess. But what’s the old saying? Defense is to offense as four is to one. But they maybe needed another 12 hours to pull it off. Oh well.

Aug 12, 2008 - 4:43 pm 15. Eggplant:

Rob said:

“I don’t know if this is that surprising, but in the discussion threads in the UK press (Guardian, Times, Telegraph), it seemed to me the vast majority of people blamed Georgia and the US for what happened.”

I find it interesting to compare the mindless shrieking of a moonbat versus the sly arguments of an FSB professional. The FSB guys tip their hand by being too rational.

Aug 12, 2008 - 4:45 pm 16. Doug:

I just learned from a secret source that “Mika”
is short for Mikhael!

Aug 12, 2008 - 4:48 pm 17. Dan:

It’s so easy to spot them, and yes, their contributions are invaluable, if only for the coming fight, however long that may be from now.

But yes, the attacks on .ge were quite effective, it appears, although early accounts credit this to ambitious “youts” (channeling Cousin Vinnie), rather than a state-run operation.

I guess time will tell. But yes… fledgling democracies are certainly at the mercy of DDOS attacks, and both big and small powers probably learned a lot from this.

In the meantime, I look forward to the return of the ‘tards. It is most fascinating to watch them work.

Aug 12, 2008 - 4:48 pm 18. Lesley:

Russian Attacks on Major Georgian Websites

Linked on Instapundit

Aug 12, 2008 - 4:49 pm 19. mika.:

Doug,
You do know that Mikhael is short for Mikhaelovski.

Aug 12, 2008 - 4:52 pm 20. Rob:

Eggplant, huh?

Aug 12, 2008 - 4:52 pm 21. whiskey:

I don’t think it mattered one way or another, how effective the Russian cyberwar effort was, or the various propaganda moves. Though for the record I think the Russian cyberwar efforts were quite good, though Ukraine’s hosting of various Georgian websites something unexpected politically, for which Russian cyberwar was unprepared and did not respond. Notably, Russian efforts did not cross the US red line. They did not take down US websites and I’m sure they had the capability.

I thought Hanson’s take on the propaganda effort was spot on. That Russian efforts hardly mattered given the deep division in the US/West and utopian dreaming of a world without violence.

Somewhat off tangent (since I was asked about it earlier thread): I found the Russian military copying what the US did in Iraq/OIF, but without the logistical elements in full (reason for the pause). Nevertheless, it would seem that Gates was wrong (predicting counter-insurgency as the wave of the US military engagement) and Rumsfeld correct (in that RMA was paramount, as tactics in enhanced combined Arms was something that rivals/threats/enemies could copy readily). I don’t think Georgia was prepared for the tempo of Russian operations, or anyone else. That Russia achieved a tactical surprise of the US should give everyone pause. Though I agree with Hanson that Russia may like the Japanese in WWII overestimate their ability to continue to surprise the US.

But it was not the CIA alone that had egg on it’s face: the Pentagon also missed Russia’s obvious in retrospect build-up of forces. Showing dangerous limitations on our ability to predict hostile forces.

To myself, the dominant images and reports are Georgian troops fleeing pell-mell from Gori, Stalin’s birthplace, in advance of the Russians. I don’t think the Russians are ten feet tall, or unstoppable, but I am disquieted by how good they are and how different they are fighting from Grozny. They too have been watching how good the US was in Iraq-OIF. And learning.

Aug 12, 2008 - 4:52 pm 22. Doug:

Well, no, I didn’t!

Aug 12, 2008 - 4:53 pm 23. vitoc:

What I found interesting is how the DDOS attacks on Georgian servers played out. I think we can be pretty sure that RBN resources, that is RBN-owned botnets were used for them. That tells us something about the relationship between the Russian leadership and organized crime (not that this should surprise anyone), but it yet again confirms this close relationship.

We hear a lot about (and rightly so!) how doing something about the energy dependy of the west is so important in this war. Yeah, true, but teaching people how to get rid of the viruses on their PCs, better: how to make sure not to have viruses on their PCs in the first place! – seems to me an also quite important part of this fight.

Make that clear to everyone: Have a virus on your PC, then you are part of a botnet, and as a result you are unwillingly involved in enemy military activities. By not doing everything you can to keep your PC clean you are literally providing bullets to the enemy.

Uh, and FSB guys were all over the debates in the comment sections in virtually any blog I read about this here. No doubt about it. It was blindingly obvious. Which also means that they were not that good so far at disinformation.

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:02 pm 24. sirius_sir:

But it was not the CIA alone that had egg on it’s face: the Pentagon also missed Russia’s obvious in retrospect build-up of forces.

I had this thought too initially. But on reflection, I’m not absolutely sure we can make this assumption.

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:02 pm 25. Doug:

Sirius,
Yeah, hard to believe even Govt workers could be THAT bad.

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:05 pm 26. mika.:

whiskey,
You assume that Saakashvili was not acting on his lone initiative. I don’t think that’s the correct assumption. Georgia will be made to pay war peroration, and Saakashvili will be tried for war crimes.

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:07 pm 27. Eggplant:

Dan,

It’s just a general observation and I’d rather not go into detail.

——-

Don’t under estimate the Russians. I’ve always been very impressed by Soviet engineers and scientists. It was amazing what they could do with little money. I wish I could read Russian so I could learn more from them.

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:09 pm 28. mika.:

..war reparations..

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:10 pm 29. j-rog:

Just at face value, the cyber attacks reveal at least two things which themselves contradict the official words from Moscow that this was “peacekeeping” to rescue the South Ossetians.

1. The scale of the attacks, blanketing as many possible outlets, suggests coordination and preparation, it was premeditated. This should probably only surprise the naive and uninformed.

2. The scope of the attacks takes the notion of combined-arms warfare to a new level. In a strategically defensive/tactically offensive operation (e.g. Desert Storm) you don’t need to win the PR battle, you only need to remove your opponent’s army from where it shouldn’t be. Looking at the cyber attacks in conjunction with the thrust to the ports/oil line, the Gori crossroads, and infrastructure bombing, a strategic objective emerges aimed at everything vital to what constitutes Georgia as an international country. Russia didn’t need to take Tbilisi to win this one.

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:11 pm 30. cjm:

way to stay on topic whiskey.

to me, the effort the russians put into such patently useless efforts (like posting here) bespeaks a reliance on magical thinking. going after military sites and servers is one thing, that’s a legitimate target. but wasting efforts in other areas is just pathetic. don’t they see how the ny times is dying from their own propaganda efforts? don’t they know they can’t sway people in persistent online forums?

given the total lack of a commercial economy in russia, it isn’t surprising that they are very ignorant of the new realities in communications.

if anyone wants to take the time and trouble, do some textual analysis of all the well known leftie news outlets, for common passages. already the british papers are spewing out article after article about how “the west was humiliated” — just like our resident parrot, whiskey.

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:11 pm 31. hdgreene:

No longer an army of abused draftees, the Russian Federation now fields an army of abused professionals. But in Russia, it’s considered good work so they have the pick of the litter.

As for the performance of the Georgians — was there a disinformation campaign pumping them up? All those destroyed armored vehicles someone alluded to? Not that I gave it much credence. We’ll find out over the next few weeks.

I think the US saw this coming. A dozen Colonels ain’t going to have much of a career if they missed this. As for the CIA and State, if they took a break spying on the Bush administration they may have seen it, too (and prepared press releases blaming Bush.) In fact, I can’t see the Georgians missing it. They may have a small intelligence service, but we know where its focus is.

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:13 pm 32. Eggplant:

Duh… I meant Rob not Dan.

vitoc said:

“Make that clear to everyone: Have a virus on your PC, then you are part of a botnet, and as a result you are unwillingly involved in enemy military activities. By not doing everything you can to keep your PC clean you are literally providing bullets to the enemy.”

I’m a Linux bigot and laugh at viruses and worms. Malware bounces harmlessly off my computer. Also, Linux is free and you don’t have Bill Gates looking over your shoulder.

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:17 pm 33. Doug:

Your the one that complained about the Volleyballers cjm

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:21 pm 34. art rogue:

Get a mac or linux. If you have to run windows use virtual software like vmware so you are sandboxed. Just sayin.

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:22 pm 35. Rob:

cjm, it’s not surprising that, say, the Guardian and Independent are running pieces and have many commentators blaming Bush and saying we were humiliated (the Guardian, after all, still publishes Richard Gott, a journalist for them who was exposed as being on the KGB payroll), but it is somewhat surprising to see that in more mainstream publications like the Telegraph. And if that’s what our closest ally is publishing, I can only imagine how much worse the coverage is in places like France and Germany.

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:22 pm 36. vitoc:

Eggplant – yeah, that would be YOUR machine. You’re not in the majority, though. I’d be willing to bet that lots of people on this blog here actually use IE, do not regularly update all antivirus software, and maybe some even were unwilling participants in the botnet attacks.

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:23 pm 37. Dan:

Hey, I REPAIR infected computers as a working hobby. Thus far, I have seen over 90% of them with one bit of malware or the other. And I have worked on hundreds, if not thousands.

It WOULD be an interesting exercise to figure out the source of these things. I may be a killer of malware, but I am NOT an expert on where these things are written.

Note to America: your home PC could be aiding the enemy. And probably is.

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:25 pm 38. art rogue:

Yep. Newsweek is blaming the west.

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:27 pm 39. Dan:

As an aside, and after further thought, if anyone comes up with specific info on the .ge DDOS attacks, I would be grateful for the info. I’ll do some searching myself, but any info would be most appreciated. It would be nice to get some specifics here.

The next time Russia tries to pull this off? Maybe we can be a little better prepared.

Now, then, where have the trolls gone? I feel so lonely.

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:29 pm 40. sirius_sir:

Was the earlier cyberattack on Estonia just obnoxious perfidy, or was it a dress rehearsal for what was even then planned to come? Or did the effectiveness of that earlier attack cause some in the upper echelon to rub their chins and go, “Hmmm…” ?

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:30 pm 41. whiskey:

CJM –

I am a long-time poster, back to the days when Belmont Club was on Blogger. I am no friend of Putin, find him a thug, and a dangerous one at that. See my blog on why I find Putin a very dangerous threat. That Putin is smart and informed about the West makes him more not less dangerous. Saddam’s army could not and did not copy how the US Army fought. Putin’s did, however imperfectly. [Clearly, logistics remain a problem.]

Nor do I think that the West is humiliated. But I *do* see a persistent gap — between those who have effectively disarmed and those who have not. If Russia is a recent pensioner, it’s neighbors and near neighbors are even older pensioners confined to wheelchairs. If you look at my Blog I do not have a sanguine view of Putin or his ability to stay out of conflict with the West. [One thought: the cease-fire may be an attempt to preserve Obama politically.]

But it is a mistake to under or overestimate our enemy: which Putin really is. On the subject of oil prices if nothing else.

I think Rumsfeld, unfairly maligned, was in fact correct in evaluating the strategic landscape facing the US: threats often distant, fast moving, requiring a “lighter” US ability to project force globally to protect US interests. Rather than Gates vision of counter-insurgency (as Westhawk has discussed). Gates has been proven wrong, and dead wrong, at that. IMHO surveying either Pakistan or Iran, it is just as likely that at Iran at least would copy Russian efforts and abandon that mass-attacks that characterized former Soviet and Soviet client tactics. Saddam’s million man army is truly dead.

Propaganda and DoS and other cyber-warfare attacks are merely marginal things.

If the Pentagon saw this coming, they were so marginalized that the Bush Admin did not listen to them. I don’t think so, there’s no “I told ya so” from the Pentagon bemoaning CIA incompetence (or that of State). Which I would expect if they foresaw this coming.

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:32 pm 42. Dan:

sirius_sir:

An excellent question, and exactly what was going through my mind at this moment.

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:32 pm 43. fedya:

Well, I’m unnerved by how much a meme that is repeated over and over early enough seems to become “Gospel Truth” in classic information cascades. But, all it takes is a break at the top of the cascade for mass opinions to shift.

However, these ghostly creatures breathing into my personal cyberspace are more than a little threatening. Is this somewhat like knowing that 1/3 of your neighbors regularly talk things over with the KGB? Or is it like living in Georgia with a siloviki gangster-state 20 miles from the main national road and rail artery?

Why don’t people get it: that South Ossettia is a construction that started with the Czars. Actual, non-ethnic Russian Ossettians exist, of course, but they are a miserable minority anywhere they are found in Georgia. They were installed as safekeepers of the Czarist military roads, which continues to be their reason for being.

It seems to me that the Russkie disinformation campaign has succeeded in spades, because _no one_ is questioning the nature of the South Ossettian enterprise. It is a gangster operation, not an ethnic community. The Ossettians there are totally run by ethnic Russian siloviki. Siloviki are war-lord gangs profiting from chaos, comprised of: Putin himself, the secret forces, and hordes of high-ranking Russ military.

When they come to Brighton Beach to look after their Heroin trade, we call them “Russian Mafia”. They call themselves “Officers” and have the credentials to prove it.

I think the idea that President Not-Putin is reining in the siloviki to be a hopeful fantasy, but this article does expose what we are dealing with in Russia:

S. Ossetia Crisis Could Be Russia’s Chance To Defeat Siloviki By Yulia Latynina
http://www.rferl.org/content/South_Ossetia_Crisis_Could_Be_Russian_Chance_To_Defeat_Siloviki/1189525.html

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:40 pm 44. cjm:

how many tanks did this info-war effort save? who but the choir is convinced by such clumsy propaganda efforts? to me, the premise of this thread is invalid (in that i don’t think info-war as defined above, is militarily effective).

just like with AA radars, the russians lit up their info assets and now we know where they are.

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:46 pm 45. someone:

“Rob said:

“I don’t know if this is that surprising, but in the discussion threads in the UK press (Guardian, Times, Telegraph), it seemed to me the vast majority of people blamed Georgia and the US for what happened.”

I find it interesting to compare the mindless shrieking of a moonbat versus the sly arguments of an FSB professional. The FSB guys tip their hand by being too rational.”

Ha! Actually, I think the original comment was onto something — specifically, the Must Appease Faster/Blame The Victim take being pushed by the British press.

Beneath the “realist” contempt on display is real moral rot and fear.

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:47 pm 46. RWE:

I think the first question we must ponder is how we identify what were cyberwar actions and what were not. Certain inputs here at the Belmont Club clearly were, and I don’t want to comment on them because I have no desire to aid the other side in BDA.

We heard at various times that Russian forces were and were not pushing past South Ossetia and were or were not in Gori. One news service would report one thing and another would contradict it. There were multiple such conflicting reports on similar issues.

Now how much of that was time-phased and how much was the fog of war and how much was bad reporting and how much was disinformation? I am sure that we all recall how when US forces took the Baghdad airport and one Reuters reporter was saying he was just there and the Americans were nowhere to be seen. Then another report came out maybe 30 min later, also from Reuters I believe, from another reporter who was at the airport and the place was covered with Americans. Was one of those reports disinformation or bad reporting?

And then there was the delightful Baghdad Bob, giving news conferences saying the Americans were nowhere near and if they had turned up the mike gain you would have been able to hear the M1A1’s rumbling by outside. Now, we know that was disinformation.

In the case of the Georgian conflict, knowing things such as whether the Russians were going outside South Ossetia was absolutely critical to framing the nature of the conflict. Moving out of South Ossetia changed the perception from that of an armed man defending his home from intruders to that of an armed man slipping a bank teller a threatening note.

Now, I’m sure that the CIA, DIA, and DoD knew the answer, but they were almost certainly not able to publicize it due to intelligence sources and methods issues. But was the news media played or complicit or gullible or merely confused?

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:51 pm 47. neolex:

There is another thing cyberattacks reveal:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/13/technology/13cyber.html

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:52 pm 48. sigintel:

Some Comments on the Electronic Warfare in the Russian Invasion of Georgia 2008

1. Targeting Radio Communications:
a. Georgia is hilly and mountainous so to support terrestrial VHF and UHF radio (celltel) you need many point-to-point microwave relays and mountain top repeaters. Russian ID’d and then targeted military and civilian radio repeaters and cell sites. Once they took those out, the Georgian Army had no effective command and control communications (C3)other than VHF/UHF line of sight radios. I watched on FOXNEWS when one of the celltel repeaters was targeted. Maybe one of the reasons that the Georgian Army skidaddeled yesterday was because they lost the tactical radio links from the front line to the main force and didn’t know that the Russian tank column had stopped advancing north of Gori.

b. Jamming HF/MF Frequencies. Don’t know yet? The HF radio bands in the 3 to 5 MHz. range would be usable for tactical comms albeit that its the bottom of the solar sunspot cycle and radio propagation conditions can be categorized as “poor”. If the GA had manpack radios with spread spectrum anti-jam technology then they should have been able to maintain C3. No reports of Russian jamming Georgian TV or AM/FM radio broadcasts.

2. Radar and GPS
Lots of that used by the Russians for sure. GA probably used pre-programmed targeting info for the artillery barrage on SO so didn’t need GPS.

3. Satellite Communications (satcom)
Unknown usage outside of FOXNEWS coverage with a transportable uplink.

The GA has tactical satcom systems supplied by the US company Comtech. GA acquired in 2007 a Quick Deploy Satellite System (QDSS), satellite network bandwidth, training, and technical support. QDSS is a portable briefcase communications platform.

4. Common Carrier Telecom links(telecom)
Georgia Telecom – national telecom operator of the Republic of Georgia, established in 1994. Telecom Georgia has its own point-to-point Radio Relay Link network through entire Georgia and provides its customers with a wide range of services: local, domestic long-distance and international communication, voice and data transmission, Internet access. websitewww.telecom.ge
No info on damage to central office telephone switching equipment or long distance links.
5. Internet
Botnet attacks on servers with .ge. Unknown as to who in .ru was running the attacks.

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:55 pm 49. RWE:

P.S.
Don’t y’all all wish you were in the country of Georgia right now with a truckload of “Red Dawn” DVDs and U.S. Georgia-style “Fergit, Hell!” bumper stickers?

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:58 pm 50. Evil Pundit:

Don’t underestimate disinformation. It’s one of the most powerful weapons that can be used against an open society.

Disinformation lost us Vietnam, and could have lost us Iraq. Our vulnerability is something we need to address.

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:58 pm 51. Rob:

I think the info-war is very important. Just look at the Israel/Hezbollah war. By pretty much any objective measure, Israel kicked their ass. But, since the war became framed as, if Hezbollah survives they’ve won, it’s pretty much been accepted that Hezbollah won the war, which has real consequences, in terms of public opinion, recruiting, money from their patron, etc.

If this war had been framed, say, like that war, which makes a kind of sense, considering the great disparity in the two forces, that victory for Georgia meant simply surviving and not having their democratic leader deposed against the biggest military in the region, it could have a big impact.

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:58 pm 52. wretchard:

The ambush was expertly organized — Russian wounded describe combat with the Georgians.

Aug 12, 2008 - 6:10 pm 53. neolex:

@mika

What did fedya upset you with? His post about SO is 100% right on target. The primary source of income in the “country” is having 300,000 of people on the books, and receiving welfare and other Russian govt aid for the, while providing their votes in exchange. Secondary is smuggling.

Aug 12, 2008 - 6:18 pm 54. Dan:

I am SO interested in how the info plays out over the next few days. I just HAVE to know how this started. Nothing seems to add up thus far.

Aug 12, 2008 - 6:19 pm 55. neolex:

In case some don’t know, the actual population is about 80,000, imagine collecting so many welfare checks, even if in rubles.

Aug 12, 2008 - 6:19 pm 56. Rob:

Don’t know if this was posted here:

Cyberspace Barrage Preceded Russian Fighting

By JOHN MARKOFF
Published: August 12, 2008

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/13/technology/13cyber.html?hp

Aug 12, 2008 - 6:22 pm 57. Ledger:

I am not an expert on the complex telecommunications network but, after the incident where Pakistan took down You Tube over the Mohammad cartoons, it’s clear that routers and DNS servers can be compromised.

Since this blog has attracted a number of “communication consultants” that seem to be explaining Putin’s position on the current war I’ll just make a few short points.

Fred makes a blunt but important statement:

If we can’t save Georgia, we sure can destroy the Mullah’s toys, destroy Iran’s navy, bomb to smitereens the Revolutionary Guards, and decapitate the leadership. Won’t be much left for Moscow to work with. So, doing Iran will put it to Putin, right where it hurts. –Fred Aug, 11 2008. 4:52 pm Voluntary amputation

Technically speaking, Putin has devoted a considerable amount of military men and materials into the war with Georgia. Logically, now would be a good time to strike Iran.

The strikes on our troops with machine-manufactured shaped charges directed by the Mullahs and their Russian friends must stop.
Although, NATO just a shell of its former self as Whiskey notes, it would provide a good excuse to arm and mire down the Russians in Georgia.

I think we have an obligation to those Georgian troops who helped us in the sand box to avenge the bombing and shelling of their families. The Russian bombs and HE shells were intended to destroy buildings men women and children – which will anger Georgian residents for a long time. That should put some fire in their belly.

As Wretchard has noted Putin deceived Bush and executed a well planned invasion. Putin has set the tone of conduct.

The arming of our friends doesn’t have to be overt. In fact, I would recommend the opposite. Instruct Condi and Gates to inform Putin at all is forgiven. Look him in the eye then kick him in the crotch.

It would be desirable to cause a little distention between the Chinese and the Russians by noting that Russia is taking the spot light off of the Olympics in China causing great harm. Drive a wedge between China and Russia.

Next, We should proceed to eliminate Putin’s Iranian proxy as quickly and efficiently as possible.

Hit the Quds, the Revolutionary Guards and the top guys in the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq. And, maybe Arrange for Ahmadinejad’s Airbus to have ill-fated mechanical failure.

We don’t need any more Iranian Quds brazenly killing our guys like Karbala attack in January.

see Karbala attack

or

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,249403,00.html

In summary, entangle Putin in his own back yard and don’t let Putin control the oil infrastructure of Europe.

Aug 12, 2008 - 6:28 pm 58. Richard Fernandez:

See the updated main post. There’s forensic evidence that the cyberoffensive started long before — weeks before — the kinetic. Coincidence?

Aug 12, 2008 - 6:29 pm 59. neolex:

It seems to me that Russia has been threatened by the US, with something, but I can’t imagine what it would be, besides the Stabilization Fund ($157 billion) being frozen.

Russia will likely lose G8 and OSCE memberships for quite some time (or at least will not be invited to the meetings, while formally being a member), it can forget about WTO and NATO-Russia meetings are also history.

It seems that Putin has miscalculated in his arrogance. He wanted to take Tbilisi and get rid of Saakashvili but couldn’t do it in the time before US response (whatever that was). It is also possible that he was restrained internally. I wonder how much the following things played a role:

- Georgians invading SO to meet advancing Russian forces.
- Georgians leaving Gori to avoid heavy losses.
- US intelligence available to Georgians
- Poor state of Russian military (reportedly Russian tanks were breaking down every few kilometers while moving into Georgia through the tunnel).
- S200 air defence that Ukraine supplied Georgia and Russia did not know about
- Reported anti-tank weapon made by either Israel or BAE

On the flip side, Russia gets to keep SO and Abhazia.

Aug 12, 2008 - 6:33 pm 60. cedarford:

Information war, in this case, is behind in catching up to the facts on the ground created by rapid military action.

The initial claim is that Georgia started things rolling with a massacre of over 1,000 Russian citizens. Georgia was unable to respond with valid reason for it’s massive attack, only saying that Russia then beating it to bloody tatters over the deaths of Russian passport-holders was:

1. Too excessive given Georgia just destroyed one piddly little city.
2. Wrong because Georgia is a freedom-loving democracy that should compel other democracies to jump into the war and start their own military conflict with Russia.

The “international community’s” communications were a morass of confusion, ranging from neocon belligerance to diplomatic nit-splitting, to confusion on what US policy was:

1. Neocons absurdly demanded military force by America to kill Russians to preserve the pro-Zionist Saakashvili – ignoring no other power would give America basing rights. The also demanded that we admit Georgia into NATO, ignoring that the French, Italian, German veto and the Brit and Dutch being exceptionally lukewarm to NATO membership was based on Article 5 fears of having to be obligated to warfare for dangerous Georgian territorial claims – something that happened and proved the Euros right to avoid the danger of putting Georgia in NATO.

2. Various international bodies failed to act or come up with “agreed on wording” to stop the war because they were divided on who was at fault.

3. Inside America, no one knew if Condoleeza Rice had green-lighted the Georgian adventure, and few policy-makers including the China-cavorting Bush – received any information on the circumstances leading to the initial Georgian attack – despite 250 US troop “advisors” inside Georgia.

There were some side issues of various euro and neocon and Russian factions pounding the keyboards, but all from the sidelines divorced from events directed entirely outside their control and influence. There was considerable Russian “side-effort” to knock out Georgian broadcast and cell-phone capacity because of their military utility, but stress side-effort from what Russian air and armor did in folding a poorly constructed Georgian military that the US trained and equipped more for “high-tech special ops boots on the ground” terrorist fighting than stopping air and armor threats US planners foolishly assumed was a “zero threat” scenario in a post-communist, post 9-11 world.

(Which is a good caution on US forces that the same people insist we don’t need ability to defeat Russia & China but only need a Navy and AF to the extent they support light infantry “boots on the ground” fighting low-tech evildoers, with exciting new million-dollar American weapon toys..Many wish to reshape our military only to fight insurgents and evildoers plus “surgically defeat the Iranian threat to Our Special Friend”, and shoot down rogue nation missiles. Not considering we are over-committed with the smaller force we have, have burned out our active duty and reserve forces badly in the last 7 years, and are badly in debt to contries like Russia, KSA, and China (91 billion, 200 billion plus 5% of American real estate, 1.08 trillion, respectively) to pay for oil with no US exports wanted in return and for Bush’s wars and tax cuts to the wealthy.)
And militarily weakened and in hock to our enemies, have lost most our allies.
Putin saw the US as a hypocritical paper tiger, the neocons as mostly reviled and discredited, and Georgia a fine place to do a little payback.

In February, Condoleeza Rice and EU members following the US lead backed independence of Kosovo from Serbia, which Mr Putin vociferously opposed. At the time US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice gave the assurance that “Kosovo cannot be seen as precedent for any other situation in the world today”.

But precedent is just what it set. By the same logic that led to partition of Kosovo — a region that suffered terribly under Serbian rule — Putin hopes to sever South Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgia and bring them back into the Russian orbit of influence. He is effectively using our own medicine against us.

To avoid conflict and carnage like this in the future, the United States and the world community need a more consistent platform when it comes to fledgling independence movements. Why does the US support movements in some places, such as Kosovo, and thwart them in others, such as South Ossetia?

Like every great power, the US chooses to support self-determination movements that destabilise its competitors (Russia, China, Iran) and oppose the ones backed by them. This has always been a central tenet of realism in foreign policy.

But it is also a Pandora’s box. If the US opts not to respect the principle of sovereignty, it encourages other powers to do the same, thus undermining state sovereignty the world over.

Aug 12, 2008 - 6:35 pm 61. sirius_sir:

I read the Hirsh piece and see what looks to me like a lot of disinformation. Could it be the author is, in fact, a useful idiot for our side? How else to interpret the risible contention that “America is stretched thin in Iraq”?

Old news is no longer ‘news’ and the fact that a major media reporter/commentator doesn’t recognize the fact seems suspicious. At least to me. To a Russian analyst, however, it might not be and may in fact seem only a necessary part of the info feed needed to justify risk and rash behaviour.

The reality I think is that our military is not “stretched thin in Iraq” but well-seasoned, stronger, smarter–in every essence more competent than ever. But if a reporter nominally for our side can’t see it, maybe he’s not alone. Maybe the other side doesn’t see it either.

Maybe we are actually ahead in the disinformation campaign. Perhaps we not only knew this latest chapter in the Caucauses was about to open but actually encouraged it–or at least did nothing to discourage it–by allowing the misinformative ‘common knowledge’ supplied by the likes of a Hirsch to hatch and multiply. But to what purpose?

Perhaps to reveal the truth. Despite all the effort being expended to mold perceptions, the new regime is now revealed as no different than the old. The KGB propaganda machine is working overtime, spinning so hard the smoke is everywhere. And yet a good many see through it more clearly than ever.

Aug 12, 2008 - 6:43 pm 62. neolex:

@cedarford

It is not clear what kind of damage Georgians have dealt to Tshkinvali. Russian figure of 1000-2000 was certainly not true. Putin used “tens people killed, hundreds injured” in one of his tirades against Georgian offensive. That phrase was not broadcast on any Russian channels afterwards. There were no pictures or videos of Tskhinvali shown on Russian TV, except for a short video around the same house, and people in basements. Newspapers and TV had to use footage and images from Gori and were labeling it Tskhinvali.

The exact actions of US that stopped Russia dead in its tracks are still unknown, they might have involved threat of military force.

Do you know what the word Zionist means?

Aug 12, 2008 - 6:48 pm 63. neolex:

@sirius_sir

Interesting point. It should also be noted that Russians, given their KGB leadership don’t understand the concept of (relatively) independent media or courts. In their mind, they are both direct subjects to the leadership of the country, thus their sweeping claims about western media, dont bode well for them in infowar.

Aug 12, 2008 - 6:52 pm 64. Dan:

cedarford:

Damn. You’re good.

But you still suck.

I am pleased to note all the calories you burned posting that led me to… well…

only read a third of your post.

Aug 12, 2008 - 6:55 pm 65. hdgreene:

I think the radio free Europe article Fedya linked to has the ring of truth to it. Except I don’t think the goons dragged the bosses somewhere they didn’t want to go.

When I traveled in Asia in the early 80’s I went to a Tass (call it KGB) sponsored event on the war in Afghanistan. It was slick. They had film of maimed Afghan Children and, I suspected, attributed the blame to the wrong party (I kind of figured it was the Soviets in most cases — does that make me bad?). Still, it is hard not to give some credit to the direct, in your face lie. And if it is repeated enough?

Now, where’s my check.

Aug 12, 2008 - 6:56 pm 66. fred:

I think the ability to attack and shut down any nation’s server/communication hubs is not something to be taken lightly. For the past 15 years we have seen Russian criminal intrusion into various aspects of our internet operations, from banking to retailing and quite possibly national security and information highways. The Chinese have been investing heavily in this kind of warfare too, so let us not forget that. And that means we are going to have to invest heavily in R&D – top secret level – for new kinds of hardware and, most importantly, new operating systems that can be proprietary for DoD.

No one can crack code that is completely unfamiliar to them. We have the world’s best universities and should be going to that well in a big way. Except that I would not hire foreigners for this task. The grad students and doctorates who sign on should be squeaky clean and can get a top security clearance for this work.

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:02 pm 67. fred:

I cannot emphasize enough the fact that we seem to have passed into a new and more dangerous period where our enemies have advantages that they can use to take long gambles with. I hope that smarter minds than my brain are able to see this handwriting on the wall and get moving in the right direction.

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:04 pm 68. Frank:

I don’t thing it was a coincidence of the cyber attacks. It was well planned with the hope of blocking web communications. We need to plan accordingly here in the US

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:04 pm 69. neolex:

We do…

http://blog.wired.com/27bstroke6/2008/04/feds-cyber-cent.html

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:06 pm 70. sigintel:

Here’s a good story from the Beeb decribing how both sides are trying to “spin” the story. HRW try’s to stop the spin with some veracity.

BBC Aug 12:
Russian officials say more than 1,500 civilians were killed in Tskhinvali after Georgia launched an all-out assault last Friday, using heavy artillery and tanks. The casualty toll cannot be independently verified.

Giorgi Gogia, a researcher for Human Rights Watch in Tbilisi, described the Russian figure for Tskhinvali as “an exaggeration”, adding: “It is clear that both sides are exaggerating, and that figures are inflated”.

He said HRW, which is based in New York, had not found any evidence to back up Russian claims of atrocities committed by Georgian troops.

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:10 pm 71. nichevo:

c4, shall I tell you your faults again, or again, does it not matter to you? TIA

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:15 pm 72. neolex:

who’s c4?

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:17 pm 73. nichevo:

short for cedarford. always wrong, never in doubt.

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:18 pm 74. fred:

neolex,

I just hope that Homeland Security’s Manhattan Project does not have infiltration, a la Hesham Islam, at the Pentagon)in the ranks. But in this atmosphere of political correctness and the suppression of criticism of Islam they may just have hired some doctorate from the Ummah. Lord help us.

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:22 pm 75. sigintel:

Besides spun-up news stories and DNS denial of service attacks on internet servers, two giant info/electronic warfare threats these days: a crippling cyber attack on supervisory communication and data acquisition (SCADA)systems that run power grids, pipelines, water/sewer systems, Bank ATM/POS terminals, etc. etc.

…and the ultimo crippler the Electro Magnetic Pulse (EMP) attack which takes out unprotected electronics equipment through a blast of Radio Frequency (RF) waves by a bomb detonated in the upper atmosphere. Imagine that your water pump and refrigerator are fried…oh did I forget about your PC, TV, and internet…poof!

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:26 pm 76. Eggplant:

neolex asked:

“who’s c4?”

He’s Cedarford, our resident neofascist and Jew hater. He writes long posts that few people read.

sirius_sir said:

“I read the Hirsh piece and see what looks to me like a lot of disinformation.”

Is this Michael Hirsh of “Newsweek”? If it’s from “Newsweek” then of course it’s disinformation.

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:31 pm 77. fedya:

@neolex:
I must have missed something, too, not having seen anything from Mika. Perhaps there is a hovering moderator… and thanx for the endorsement!

Things were locked down here so I posted over at the naval confab, http://informationdissemination.blogspot.com/

SINCE Wretchard pointed out clear evidence of the excellent fighting ability of the Georgians, and SINCE it seems obvious to me that a great many of the people of Georgia are spoiling for a chance to cut off Ivan’s already bloodied nose, I say we help them fight and my bet is that we are in the process of doing that at this very moment.

Following is part of my post at the boat-floater’s convention:

Russia is sure it can force Georgia to become a “neutral” state with permanent Russian occupation of South Ossettia and Abkhazia.

However, many–Turkey and Azerbaijan in particular–desperately need to prevent Russia and Iran from dividing The Caspian between themselves. The Greater Caucasus Mountains should be the northern edge of an open “Silk Road” from the Caspian to the Mediterranean.

….

Russia is strong, but very sick, and therefore all the more dangerous. She is a kleptocracy run by appparatchik bandits, no more, no less. And bandits, even bandits lighting fires of nationalist conflict, can be beaten to a stand-still by a liberty-loving people.

Stop Russia in Georgia with Ukrainian, Turkish and Azeri proxies supporting Georgians at the tip of the spear. This will force Russian siloviki out of South Ossettia (the central strategic necessity). The means will be anti-air/anti-armor weapons in Georgian hands, NATO overflights of the Lesser Causasus and an open Black Sea naval corridor along the Turkish coast to Batumi.

How? Start by stabilizing a Mtskheta- Dusheti- Ananuri- Mt.Kazbek Line to close the biggest invasion route, the fabled Georgian Military Road (is Mtskheta still in Georgian hands?). That will keep the huge reservoir watering Georgia and contain the so-called “Ossetians”.

And Abkhazia? Well, I’d predict a permanent Russian naval base in Sukhumi. No way to stop it. Let them have the entire Kodori Gorge, with it, too.

Are you listening?

Then howzzabout a joint US-Turkish-Georgian naval base at Georgia’s southernmost port [once a huge Russian combined arms base] at Batumi?

Voila! Instant 21st century Fulda Gap sitting on a 21st Century Silk Road reaching all the way to China. The ’stans are gonna love it. Azeri’s and Turks are REALLY gonna love it. And China’s gotta love it, too, mmm-hmmm.

Poor pooty Putin and the Persians, aced out of their lockhold on the geographic center of the world. Hallelujah!

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:38 pm 78. fedya:

@fred:
we seem to have passed into a new and more dangerous period where our enemies have advantages that they can use to take long gambles with.

Well, if this gamble by Putin and the siloviki fails badly [for them], at least we can take heart that long odds can be very bad odds.

Russia is too sick to withstand a big downturn, and too dangerous to be allowed to take advantage of recklessness born of greed and desperation.

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:43 pm 79. Dan:

Aug 12, 2008 – 7:38 pm

Damn you for making me think this late in the evening!

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:51 pm 80. neolex:

The gamble has already failed. Russia has damaged its standing beyond repair for the foreseeable future. There is a lot of information missing as to it’s decision to halt, but it seems to me that Russia moving beyond SO borders, and not capturing Tbilisi means it failed. It could have stayed in SO, and not have damaged it’s standing. At this point it appears that Putin miscalculated somewhere, either the speed with which Russian military can accomplish the objective, or US response (which we still dont know).

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:52 pm 81. neolex:

It is also notable that not a single country came out with support for Russia (besides Cuba). Even Chavez kept his mouth shut. Not a single CIS country, including Russian allies who have borders with Russia put out any supporting statements.

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:56 pm 82. DanM:

Ok,

Paranoia strikes… I was “moderated” and the thread closed after my post…

Can you be a Bot and not know it? Am I a mini-Manchurian Candidate? Where is that prescription….

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:58 pm 83. Elroy Jetson:

Wretchard @ 4:13 PM
Rielle Edwards?
Getting a little ahead of yourself there, I think.

Aug 12, 2008 - 8:06 pm 84. buddy larsen:

Me too, DanM, on the thread past –i had ”Jack” the Menshevik ready to admit the St Petersberg mafia was after Alaska and had already ‘turned’ the governor –and damned if the thread didn’t snap shut!

Aug 12, 2008 - 8:13 pm 85. Teresita:

Whiskey: That Russia achieved a tactical surprise of the US should give everyone pause. Though I agree with Hanson that Russia may like the Japanese in WWII overestimate their ability to continue to surprise the US.

It’s always possible to achieve tactical surprise with a “sucker punch” like when bin Laden hit us on 9-11. But you only get one short sharp shot, dig it? And the the Law of Unintended Consequences changes the whole strategic environment. Already the US has canceled a NATO-Russian summit and a naval exercise with the US, Russia, Britain, and France. There’s probably a whole other diplomatic and economic array of pain lined up for Russia to eat I don’t know about. And they either just handed the election to McCain, or caused Obama to quit jerking around with Tim Kaine or Evan Bayh as potential VP picks in favor of some Scoop Jackson type democrat. Even “The Nation” magazine recognizes what Putin just did.

Eggplant: I’m a Linux bigot and laugh at viruses and worms. Malware bounces harmlessly off my computer. Also, Linux is free and you don’t have Bill Gates looking over your shoulder.

I’m running Mandriva 2008, it’s such a joy. Even plays DVDs right out of the box. Every time you install any version of Linux you have a full suite of free software you can start using right away, and if you don’t have it now, you can install it in a heartbeat. But most people are content to pay the Microsoft Tax, get a computer with a buggy, bloated operating system installed, and then start buying all the third party software they need (Photoshop, Nero) to make the computer minimally usable.

He’s Cedarford, our resident neofascist and Jew hater.

He’s not a Zionist. He doesn’t think the secular state of “Israel” should get special rights. That doesn’t necessarily translate to hating Jews.

hdgreene: And Teresita? I would just figure she’s trying to get voted off the island.

This is in response to which comment? Or are you just trolling?

Aug 12, 2008 - 8:15 pm 86. whiskey:

I think clearly that the Russians were surprised at how the Georgians were able to use sites hosted in the Ukraine and elsewhere to disseminate their viewpoint, and how various reporters with Sat phones were able to do their own reporting.

While Russian cyberwar was effective in shutting down Georgian sites, they clearly did not anticipate nor were they willing to target sites hosted by other nations.

Russia was unwilling or unable to decide on measures against content routed elsewhere.

Which brings to mind the next issue — information networks are fairly robust. DoS attacks can be sustained for a while, but usually cooperative network engineers in hosting companies in the US or other Western nations can take steps against them. Even a compromised DNS server can be restored. Georgians could get their own version of events out through as noted sat phones, satellite uplink facilities, even ham radio.

But in some ways, Russia’s actions mirrored that of the US on “thunder runs” to Baghdad and Georgia mirrored Saddam’s forces: static, unable to communicate, fall-back their only option. Probably complete collapse was only avoided by US advisors preventing panic and conducting fighting retreats or those far in advance of being held vulnerable to Russian air cover, which was complete but not dominating. Russia probably could have collapsed Georgia’s forces had they more air assets. That they did not pursue this avenue suggests strongly that Russia’s Air Arms are the most limited.

That makes sense: it takes a LOT of time and money to train skilled pilots, Russia may have relatively few. I don’t think they lacked for aircraft.

Aug 12, 2008 - 8:19 pm 87. buddy larsen:

Fedya @ 7:38, good stuff –made me wonder why so few Americans know what a “central asia” is. These things are not taught in our schools. Why is that? It’s not as if the knowledge isn’t critical.

Aug 12, 2008 - 8:20 pm 88. RAH:

Actually I would consider the cyber warfare a failure. Georgian internet did not go down, partially due to efforts by networks outside the country. The internet was designed originally to function even if sections of the network are down by rerouting through other networks.

The FSB propaganda machine was very fast. I watched Russia today livestream and it was very good. However right now the US is high propaganda mode because of the elections and we are very fast to detect it.

Plus the dichotomy was so evident, Georgian small forces facing the long line of Russian tanks that the Russian allowed to be seen and photographed.

I really liked the irony of private computer experts attacking the denial of service issues. I will place my money on private hackers against government hackers any day.

About the vast numbers of FSB types, that was surprising. I saw those on Free Republic yesterday and I wonder if that happened at the liberal/ leftist blogs?

Clumsy but since we fight so much between ourselves and id trolls so fast we are very aware. I do not mind getting the other viewpoint that much. But some was pure distraction to he discussion. I just ignored it.

Aug 12, 2008 - 8:27 pm 89. buddy larsen:

I’m with C4 on Israel –i don’t think she should get special treatment either, and as soon her 500 million neighbors quit trying to obliterate her, then no more of that special treatment –whatever it is.

Aug 12, 2008 - 8:30 pm 90. mark_b:

Ivory Snow was able to read regular expressions.

And got pissed.

Aug 12, 2008 - 8:33 pm 91. Lifeofthemind:

Fedya,
One question about the Wisdom of giving Russia Abkhazia. Fallout of this should include the Ukraine expelling the Russians from Sevastapol. Why give them another warm water port on the Black Sea? Better to scrub them from the Black Sea. We can make it a catch phrase to ask why are any Russians South of Rostov? Then we can get Europeans to agitate to start extracting them from their “colonial occupation” of Konigsberg.

Aug 12, 2008 - 8:34 pm 92. buddy larsen:

Russ gov’t subbed out the cyber war, according to a couple experts on tv today. The attack was nowhere near what the gov’t could have done, was the thought, and what was done preserved deniability and held the big weapons in reserve. Attacks were from RBN Network, HQ in St. Petersburg, and which, said these experts, is an organized crime network that “appears to have some sort of government protection”. The two experts were WSJ reporter Siobahn Gorman and US Cyper Consequences Unit’s Scott Borg (yes, that’s the name alright).

Aug 12, 2008 - 8:40 pm 93. Teresita:

Buddy Larsen: I’m with C4 on Israel –i don’t think she should get special treatment either, and as soon her 500 million neighbors quit trying to obliterate her, then no more of that special treatment –whatever it is.

Whatever it is? Of all the nations in the world stockpiling nuclear weapons, only India, Pakistan, and Israel have declined to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and only Israel is immune to US pressure to sign said treaty. The diplomatic trick we use is that Israel remains “ambiguous” about their stockpile, but that is no longer true since Olmert said, “Iran openly, explicitly, and publicly threatens to whip Israel off the map Can you say that this is the same level when they are aspiring to have nuclear weapons, as America, France, Israel, Russia?” So that is what I mean by special rights.

Aug 12, 2008 - 8:50 pm 94. E. Nigma:

Just a few observations:
Perhaps Ivan has pulled up short for several reasons
1) bad logistics
2) mechanical troubles with armor
3) effective anti-tank weapons used by Georgia
4) their losses were worse that war-gamed when this invasion was planned, and the advance was slower than promised. Putin may be compromised both internally and externally, and called a halt to allow a “psyops” regrouping.

And there is always the thought that this would go faster for the Russians, and the Georgian army excercised the better part of valor and did not let themselves get destroyed and withdrew deep enough into Georgia to lengthen the fight.
Yesterday Wretchard chastized my comment about the invasion and defeat of Georgia as being a fait acompli.
Perhaps I spoke too soon, but even if there is a “cease fire”, there is still warfare by other means. Perhaps we underestimate the incompentence of the Russian Army at this late date. But we should not underestimate the persistence of their intelligence services, re- the DNS attacks and the “maskirova” of postings in Western blog media.
This sort of thing bounces off most Americans, but our feckless European friends are on vacation now (and have been for years), and will look for any excuse to keep the wolf from the door, for one more year.

Just a few observations. Good night.

Aug 12, 2008 - 8:50 pm 95. fred:

I disagree with Teresita’s estimation of c-fudd. I’ve been reading at this site since about 2004/05 and have seen enough of his thinking to know that he is a certifiable Jew-hater. I think it goes way beyond “Zionism” and most of the time he’s cagey enough about it to not hit you in the face with how he feels about Jews. But, when you see enough and pick up all the pieces of the jigsaw puzzle, the pattern emerges. Right out of that bog mick knuckledragger, Pat Buchanan.

I’ll rise to Teresita’s defense. But I won’t to c-fudd’s.

Aug 12, 2008 - 8:53 pm 96. ash:

***CYBERWARFARE***

…OH SO KEWL…

…like, DUDES, what we type here…

REALLY MATTERS!!

like, YA, really, YA DUDE, our scribblin’s in cyberspace afffffffecccts

HIS Story!!!

really man, what we do here, in the blawg, matters, dontchaknow?

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:00 pm 97. buddy larsen:

Yep, Teresita –that’s pretty well known. To me personally, tho, moral equivalence arguments that do not reflect the actual truth, open up a counter right to play dumb about the negatives of friends, and enjoy the small comfort of being the lesser sinner in the case.

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:00 pm 98. CPT. Charles:

All things considered, the advent of cyberwarfare is simply an update of time-honored military principles: information denial/management. Pre-electricity: ambush scouts and couriers, movement control of people/merchants via ‘official roads’ [w/checkpoints]. Post electricity–pre-digital: destruction/subversion of telegraph/telephone lines, destruction of telephone exchanges, RF jamming, RF spoofing [false info or operational orders]. Digital: DNS attacks, infrastructure attacks, [making cell towers go boom...] and now, as you have witnessed first hand, white/gray/black propaganda dissemination via blog/form sites.

Unfortunately, the digital era presents more weaknesses than ever, as ably pointed out by many previous commenters. The threat spectrum runs from EMP bombs to viruses to counterfeit Cisco routers [a neat trick by the Chicoms that, thankfully, was uncovered before they could distributed to DARPA and Sandia facilities...].

Interestingly enough, I noted that the Georgian army was able to maneuver and withdraw effectively despite the loss of their telecommunications infrastructure, and no friendly air cover. I have an idea how they were able to do it but I WON”T discuss it here. Sorry, the wrong people may be peeking in.

As it’s close to bedtime for me, I’ll restrain my ramblings. I will say this: Putin may have won a short-term victory but at a much higher cost than he may realize. He gave the US Army a ’screener dvd’ into the new tac/strat-ops of the Russian Army, with a large audience of very bright people [our military advisors...] sitting in the front row, most certainly taking notes. The day will come when that will come back to bite him, perhaps fatally.

His vanity will yet see him undone, mark my words well.

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:02 pm 99. Teresita:

Fred: I disagree with Teresita’s estimation of c-fudd. I’ve been reading at this site since about 2004/05 and have seen enough of his thinking to know that he is a certifiable Jew-hater.

He could be, but judgment should be rendered for any actual anti-semitic C4 writings. Cedarford’s shtick (to use a Yiddish idiom) is to criticize a perceived Zionist bias in US politics and dare people to call him a Jew hater on that basis alone. So he calls ‘em as he sees ‘em. That doesn’t make him our resident sheet-for-brains David Duke/Henry Ford/Martin Luther type. When he’s not playing that game, he does have some good things to say about the actual topic.

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:07 pm 100. Doug:

Enemy Agent Pelosi

“They have this thing that says drill offshore in the protected areas,” Pelosi said. “We can do that. We can have a vote on that.”

She indicated such a vote would have to be part of a larger package that included other policies, like releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which she said could bring down prices in a matter of days.

“But it has to be part of something that says we want to bring immediate relief to the public and is not just a hoax on them,” Pelosi continued.
—
W has spent 7 years filling up our VITAL Reserves after Bubba sold them off as an accounting gimmick!
—
Bush Admin needs to explain the folly of draining the Strategic Reserve.
Again.

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:09 pm 101. ash:

C4’s historical knowledge is FINE. Call him on the facts, call him on the interpretation, but he’s no slouch. Funny the Jew-centrism, but he;y, Mika/Matseulah spews a similar line…only different.

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:11 pm 102. Mike Sylwester:

In January 2005, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili presented a new vision for resolving the South Ossetian conflict at the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe session in Strasbourg. His proposal included broader forms of autonomy, including a constitutional guarantee of free and directly elected local self-governance. Saakashvili stated that South Ossetia’s parliament would have control over issues such as culture, education, social policy, economic policy, public order, organization of local self-governance and environmental protection. At the same time South Ossetia would have a voice in the national structures of government as well, with a constitutional guarantee of representation in the judicial and constitutional-judicial branches and in the Parliament. Georgia would commit to improving the economic and social conditions of South Ossetian inhabitants. Mixed Georgian and Ossetian police forces, under the guidance and auspices of international organizations, would be established and Ossetian forces would gradually be integrated into a united Georgian Armed Forces.

Certainly this seemed like a reasonable and promising path forward, but this progress was interrupted by a still mysterious event.

On October 31, 2006, the South Ossetian police reported a skirmish in the Java, Georgia district in which they killed a group of four men. The weapons seized from the group included assault rifles, guns, grenade launchers, grenades and explosive devices. Other items found in the militants’ possession included extremist Islamic literature, maps of Java district and sets of Russian peacekeeping uniforms. Those findings led the South Ossetian authorities to conclude that the militants were planning to carry out acts of sabotage, thus raising tensions ahead of the independence referendum scheduled for November 12, 2006.

The South Ossetian authorities identified the men as Kist Chechens, many of whom live in Georgia’s Pankisi Gorge. South Ossetia has accused Georgia of hiring the Chechen mercenaries to carry out terrorist attacks in the region. Russia has previously accused Georgia of harbouring Chechen separatists in the gorge. The Georgian side flatly denied its involvement in the incident.

To me, this incident appears to be a secret operation concocted by Georgians to discredit the South Ossetians as collaborators with Chechen terrorists. These Chechens apparently were supposed to approach a Russian peacekeeper unit, disguise themselves as Russian peacekeepers, and then kill some unsuspecting Russian peacekeepers. The Chechens then would be arrested immediately by Georgian policemen, who would reveal that the Chechens had done their dastardly deed in collaboration with South Ossetians.

Or, we can imagine just as easily that the incident was a secret operation concocted by Ossetians to descredit Georgians as collaborators with Chechen terrorists. QED.

In either of these explanations, the intended audience comprises both 1) Russia and 2) the USA — two huge and powerful countries that hate and fear Chechen terrorists and that will look favorably on any nationality that catches Chechen terrorsits doing dastardly deeds.

If the international community investigates the development of this crisis, then perhaps we can determine a better explanation of this incident.

On August 7, 2007, there was another mysterious event. A missile landed, but did not explode, in the Georgian-controlled village of Tsitelubani, some 65 km north of Tbilisi. Georgian officials said that two Russian fighter jets violated its airspace and fired a missile, targeting a nearby Georgian radar outpost. Russian and South Ossetian authorities accused Georgia of staging a false flag operation in order to provoke tension in the region. Two investigative groups from NATO countries – Shaakasvili’s key allies – reported that the jet entered Georgian airspace from Russia, but Russian officials rejected this conclusion, citing their own investigation.

If the international community investigates the development of this crisis, then perhaps we can determine a better explanation of this incident too.

And there is a third incident that seems mysterious. On July 8, 2008 South Ossetia reported that it had detained four “officers from the artillery brigade of the Georgian Ministry of Defense” close to the village of Okona in the Znauri district at the administrative border the night before. Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili told police to prepare an operation to free the four soldiers, but they were released before an operation was launched.

Russian military jets flew into Georgian airspace through South Ossetia on July 9, 2008 and then returned to Russia. The next day, the Russian authorities confirmed the flight and said, in an official statement, that the fighters were sent to prevent Georgia from launching an operation to free the four soldiers detained by South Ossetia. (The incident coincided with the visit of the U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to Tbilisi.)

Russia reportedly considered revealing the details of a planned military invasion of South Ossetia by Georgia to release their detained officers. On July 15, 2008 the U.S. and Russia both began exercises in the Caucasus.The Russian exercises included training to support peacekeepers.

I wonder if this incident involving four Georgian artillery troops is related somehow to the artillery barrage launched against Tskhinvali on August 8, triggering the crisis.

In this regard, there seems to be some reason to believe that some Georgian artillery units might have acted beyond the control of the Georgian government.

At the end of August 7, Saakashvili ordered his Georgian troops to stand down in a unilateral cease-fire. In a televised statement, he declared: “A sniper war is ongoing against residents of the [Georgian] villages [in South Ossetia] and as I speak now intensive fire is ongoing from artillery, from tanks, from self-propelled artillery systems – which have been brought in the conflict zone illegally – and from other types of weaponry, including from mortars and grenade launchers.” Was he referring at least in part to some uncontrolled Georgian units that were ignoring his ceasefire orders?

Soon after his televised speech, later that same night, August 7-8, some Georgian artillery troops started a long-range artillery attack, supposedly against a bridge near Tskhinvali and supposedly because 150 Russian tanks were “approaching the region” — whatever this undefined “region” was. This artillery barrage hit Tshinvali’s central hospital, university and some of its schools.

The above information is from
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgian-Ossetian_conflict

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:16 pm 103. Eggplant:

Teresita said:

“I’m running Mandriva 2008, it’s such a joy. Even plays DVDs right out of the box. Every time you install any version of Linux you have a full suite of free software you can start using right away, and if you don’t have it now, you can install it in a heartbeat.”

I’ve been using Linux almost from the very begining of Linux (I think my first kernal was 0.70). I had been using Slackware with an obsolete GUI. I had a system that worked but was obsolete. Then a coworker took pity on me and introduced me to Linux/Ubuntu. I was made to realize that I had been living in the past and that Linux had advanced way beyond what was in my comfort zone. I am now running the latest version of Ubuntu and extremely impressed. Linux/Ubuntu simply blows the doors off of Windows/Vista. It amazes me that most of the human race punishes itself with buggy, expensive, intrusive Microsoft software. I might add that Ubuntu comes bundled (for free) with Open Office that allows access to all the standard Microsoft documents, e.g. MS-Word, Excel, PowerPoint, etc. There is no excuse for people to be punishing themselves with Microsoft garbage.

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:22 pm 104. fred:

Ash and Teresita, I have argued with him back when I first started coming to Belmont Club’s discussions. I’m not a Zionist, by the way; I’m not even Jewish, but I do support Israel’s existence and legitimacy – something I’ve caught him disparaging. I agree that we should not tailor our policy just to please Israel, but the reason why I do favor helping them is a humanitarian and religious one: they are a people set upon by the wolves. There are hundreds of millions who agree that Jews and Christians are “pigs and apes” and would love to see them exterminated. So, I stand against evil, whether it is European Jew-hatred or Islamic Jew-hatred. I think c-fudd hates ‘em and I don’t give a rat’s ass if some of you are impressed with his alleged grasp of history. Even the Devil can use the truth and cite facts correctly, so I am not easily impressed.

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:22 pm 105. whiskey:

It figures Ash would defend Cedarford. Both posit a “Zionist conspiracy” where Jews “control the world.” Funny that control could not extend to preventing the Holocaust.

Pathetic.

I don’t think either has much of a view accurately reflecting reality.

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:24 pm 106. RAH:

The simple answers are usually best. The reasons the Russians stopped were twofold in my opinion. First they are cautious, I noted that they took a long time to get Tskhinvali, they had resistance and were cautious and took an extra day to invest the town.

I believe logistics and the dug in positions at Mtskheta made the Russian stop. Also Russian had a reason not to take Tbilisi, which were all the leaders and diplomats arriving in the city. If they tried to take that with all those heads of state that were there today then that would got Russia involved with a multi-country war.

I think that Bush’s statement meant more in diplospeak and was very terse to the Russian rather than to the public. The public are used to our leader talking a lot. When they give very short statements it means that heavy planning is going down.

Russian does not want to piss off Bush who will take action if forced. Once he does he is unmovable to change his position. It is better for others not to force Bush into action. He statement had a lot of “must” not “should “ statements. We can airlift and fly from Turkey and devil take the consequences if we decide it is really needed. But we do not wish to do so for a two-bit squabble over S.Ossetia. Those consequences could be loss of Incirlik basing if we disregard Turkey’s wishes. So the message is do not push us.

We can go into the Black Sea and destroy the Russian Navy but that could scare Russia to threaten nuclear retaliation. We have too much responsibility to the world to risk that lightly.

Better if small wars stay small wars and do not become large wars with devastation to a lot of countries.

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:26 pm 107. fred:

Teresita,

I would love to use linux, but every time I have tried there has been a problem getting some peripheral of mine to work with it (wireless router, printer, scanner… you name it). I’m not very tech savvy and so I don’t know how to get around those problems. Mind you, I’m not stupid and I can learn. It’s just that there isn’t a lot out there in terms of support for some devices on my desktop or my notebook.

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:26 pm 108. Konyok:

Another reason to explain Russia’s halt: this isn’t your father’s Soviet Union. Russia is a nation in demographic freefall and has little tolerance for taking casualties.
The last few days we’ve heard something like ten Russian “peacekeepers” killed in the Georgian assault on Tskhanvali, then 3 or 4 Russian soldiers killed each day. If their casualties were actually much higher, then the war fever of the Russian people will quickly evaporate.
Don’t forget, it was the Russian Mothers that got them out of Afghanistan and the first Chechen war.
The number of Russian casualties is very likely one of the most critical metrics of this conflict.

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:26 pm 109. Eggplant:

Mike Sylwester is back. It’s 8:25 AM Moscow time. Mike, you should tell your commanding officer to setup a night shift. It looks weird when all FSB guys stop posting at the same time.

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:28 pm 110. Konyok:

Comrade Sylwester is quite tenacious.

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:31 pm 111. Kevin:

This from the AP:

A poster hanging nearby [in Tskhinvali] showed Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and the words “Say yes to peace and stability.”

Either Russian armored units come with a printing press as standard equipment, or else this suggests preplanning. Why “say yes to peace” when peace is the status quo?

Also, it either was printed before the recent Russian (oops, I almost said Soviet) election or else it is a subconscious admission that Putin is still the head honcho.

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:32 pm 112. Kevin:

Sorry, here’s the link:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/georgia_russia;_ylt=AukvTEYomZTRHdKwNuX4Iu6s0NUE

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:33 pm 113. DrJ:

There is no excuse for people to be punishing themselves with Microsoft garbage.

There is, actually. The software on Linux is very limited when you try to do specialized things. There simply is no replacement for the richness of software available for Windows. And I’ve not had any issues with stability or viruses or any of the other things about which people complain.

I take no joy in that, since I’ve been a Unix head for over 25 years. I still run my main desktop on FreeBSD, as I do my servers, but my next box will run Windows. I simply use too much of that software, and a virtual machine (or Wine — gack!) just is not adequate.

For many routine things, though, *nix is good enough, and has been for quite some time.

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:36 pm 114. mark_b:

Lots of fresh editing over at wikipedia.

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:37 pm 115. fred:

“Eggplant:

Mike Sylwester is back. It’s 8:25 AM Moscow time. Mike, you should tell your commanding officer to setup a night shift. It looks weird when all ”

LMAO!!! Quite possibly the most creatively funny comment I’ve read today anywhere.

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:40 pm 116. fedya:

@Lifeofthemind:
Fedya, One question about the Wisdom of giving Russia Abkhazia.

I suppose that it would simply be impossible to get them out of there. One can’t give something one doesn’t first possess. Them Russkies just finished a military railroad along the coast and they really, really do need a safer [for them] alternative to Sebastopol.

Perhaps Abkhazia-Sukhumi that is all they actually feel they HAVE to have for existential survival. Master Sun Tsu strongly advises us not to try to destroy a trapped enemy. Then you get things like the Battle of the Bulge spoiling your plans.

If so, it would take a world infantry war to clear them out, not just a very tough bunch of small unit Georgians.

The Abkhazians are descendents of the ethnic Russians who killed or expelled EVERY Muslim in Abkhasia (60% of population; now there’s a trail of tears for ya) in the 1860’s & ’70’s.

In 1992 they ethnically cleansed 30,000+ ethnic Georgians (vs 1500+ the other way), no doubt as a delayed reaction to Stalin forcing them to speak Georgian instead of Russian[!].

Abkhazia SHOULD be Georgian, but if a U.S.-backed Trans-Caucasian Union operates a NATO-affiliated base on the other side of the valley, Western Georgia becomes a tripwire like the Fulda Gap in Central Europe. Any massed Russian troops there who dare to move will be erased immediately with the common assent of every Turkic nation, not just tough little Georgia.

Note well that this does not actually require (or even WANT) NATO participation to work. All nations around the Black and Caspian Seas other than Iran and Russia will be dying if this doesn’t work. It will also, I would imagine, require a US-Chinese “understanding”.

Turkey has to have guarantors against the Russkies and the All New! Persians. Azerbaijan is even more desperate.

And isn’t Armenia way overdue for a “color” revolution? Sheesh.

So, now that Ivan has awakened us all, perhaps he should get Sukhumi as a consolation prize for his having united a Black and Caspian Seas Treaty Organization against himself, and created a tripwire against any further expansion Southward.

Takes pressure off the Ukraine, too.

Ivan gets a bunch of mountains filled with the ghosts of his victims. World trade gets a new Silk Road built out of pipelines. World peace gets China and Europe competing in Central Asia on price, not chokeholds.

Priceless!

I hope our poker-playing President may soon reveal a hand like this, a hand that only great skill, nerve, and wits could have put together starting, of necessity, a few years ago when the cards were mostly dealt.

And, what a helluvah big pot!

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:47 pm 117. buddy larsen:

doug, re Enema Agent Pelosi, California’s new electricity has to come from wind, sun, or Russian LNG, and “High Face Nancy” Pelosi, daughter of Lucky Luciano’s Baltimore lieutenant, backed up by Harry “Horsehead” Reid of Las Vegas, want to shooting the vig over to “Shortstuff” Putin.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, a rival gang, the “Taxpayin’ Fools”, want to drill in the USA’s Forbidden Zones.

Stay tooned it’s all coming to a head near you! i mean, a theater near you. it’s coming to a head in a theater.

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:50 pm 118. cjm:

one of the things that i always get a laugh out of, is when the chinese rip off russian military designs, and the russians whine and cry about it — but take it because they know who wears the pants in the family.

when those 60m surplus chinese males come pouring across the siberian border, under cover of the american missile defense…

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:57 pm 119. Gern Blanstein:

To all you thinking that Russian LNG will be flowing to our shores anytime soon (pervious post now closed), please consult the forward curves for said natural gas across the globe … LNG shipments are not down to the US for a lack of regas facilities, the rest of the world is paying twice what we are, $20/MMBtu vs. around $9.5/MMBtu winter gas. Why ship to the US at these North American prices when the UK/EU/Japan/South Korea look so good?

One of the greatest energy follys of the last decade and a half is burning natural gas to turn turbines for electricity on this continent. We will truly regret this in the years to come.

Aug 12, 2008 - 10:10 pm 120. buddy larsen:

Yep, one o these days, those chinese folks here and there all the way up the eastern slope of the Urals are gonna be needin’ some rescuin’ from that efnic cleansing

Aug 12, 2008 - 10:10 pm 121. Eggplant:

I earlier ranted:

“There is no excuse for people to be punishing themselves with Microsoft garbage.”

DrJ replied:

“There is, actually. The software on Linux is very limited when you try to do specialized things. There simply is no replacement for the richness of software available for Windows.”

I’m sure you already know this. You can run Windows unique executables with Wine or VMWare on top of Linux. VMWare does a pretty good job of insulating your hardware from any dirty tricks that Windows may want to play.

Aug 12, 2008 - 10:11 pm 122. Doug:

We just want oil at the wellhead.

Krauthammer reminds us we could have Santa Barbara offshore Oil in less that ONE YEAR if we took off the Moratorium that was largely put in place by my Professor, Norman Sanders, back in the 70’s.
—
Every year since then, nore natural seepage occurs Every Year than would likely have spilled into the sea with 30 years of continued production.
—
Manmade Oil spills, though minor compared to natural seepage, usually come from tankers, then pipelines, and finally at the wellhead, as you well know.

Thus Nancy must believe she must despoil the Earth to save it!
—
ANWAR could be producing in two years according to GOP pols that have traveled there and investigated the matter.

Aug 12, 2008 - 10:14 pm 123. Doug:

18 years of using DOS and Windows computers and I have never lost data to viri or hard drive failure!

Aug 12, 2008 - 10:18 pm 124. Lifeofthemind:

fedya,
For your lovely plan to work it would demand sustained cooperation between Azeris, Georgians, Armenians and the Turks (the likelihood of that happening, even during good times, we will pass over for the moment) in the teeth of both the Iranians (who have been working on the Kurds) and the Russians who are increasing their pressure and presence in the region. The Chinese are heavily invested in Iranian gas fields and may support a grand bargain with the Russians to divide the region up against the Americans. If Russia controls, pardon me guarantees, the European energy supplies then America will be shut out. Better for us then if Putin really loses so he can’t get control over the Caspian routes. We should insist that the final settlement stipulate that there will be full protection for all Ossettians and Abkhazians as per the protocols in effect under the status quo ante bellum, However we should also insist that all persons holding Russian passports must depart the territory of the Republic of Georgia. The most damaging innovation Putin brought to this game was reflagging the local minority inhabitants by handing out Russian passports and then having his UN ambassador complain on the News Hour that the Georgians had killed Russian citizens so Putin’s army had to move in to protect them.

Aug 12, 2008 - 10:23 pm 125. Teresita:

Mark_B: Lots of fresh editing over at wikipedia.

Back in 2005-06 I was part of the Wikipedia crew that watched for new crap like that and reverted it back to the way it was, and/or recommended the article for deletion. Mostly it was little garage bands trying to write themselves a resume or Christian guys trying to say their little office in a strip mall between Teriyaki Time and Tattoo Alley was “Lousiana Baptist University”. Now Wikipedia is twice as big, which only means the cleaning crew is falling behind.

Doug says I’m buying this FSB astroturf “hook line and sinker” but who was the first ones to advance into South Ossetia under arms? Wasn’t Russia. The only thing that pissed Bush off was the overshoot past South Ossetia, when it looked like Russia was going to take the whole country. Putin seemed to be genuinely dismayed by the US flying the Georgian troops back home, it looked like we were taking sides. We got the Pooty Pout. Bush’s message to him was “stop”. Not “please stop”. So Putin’s got his revenge for all the trash talk from the Georgian President, and now he’s dialing it all back a little bit. But soon he’s going to have bigger problems. The price of oil is crashing, and Russia’s oil production is off this year, despite the high prices of the first half of 2008, due to the flight of foreign investment from Putin’s kleptocracy, which will only accelerate after this little “wag the dog” tussle. As soon as the South Ossetia affair fades into history, the Russian people are going to realize their standard of living is declining again, and there’s a bunch of Putin crony billionaires running around moving their oil wealth to foreign banks rather than recycling it back into the economy. And therefore the Kremlin might want to keep those tanks closer to home.

Aug 12, 2008 - 10:28 pm 126. Dan:

Off topic but, is Russia operating under a nuclear umbrella?

AMBASSADOR JEFFREY: “In terms of how we’ve responded to this, the President was informed immediately on Friday, when we received news of the first two SS-21 Russian missile launchers into Georgian territory. He immediately — this was at the Great Hall — he immediately met with President Putin. They had a discussion. The President then engaged with his national security staff continuously over the last two days.”

The SS-21 carries 120KG of conventional explosives or tactical nukes, which begs the question why would the president need to be immediately if they believed them to be carrying 240KG of explosives?

Aug 12, 2008 - 10:29 pm 127. Alexis:

One of the problems with “denial of service” attacks is that it undermines the fabric of cyberspace, which is based upon trust. This may eventually lead to the deinternationalization of the internet, which might even become a bonus for Putin and company. One obvious means to keep attacks from Russian computers from occuring would be to install a filter keeping out anything that can be traced back to an .ru address. Of course, this would also mean avoiding Kaspersky Anti-Virus.

I have sometimes wondered how integrated anti-virus software has become with various intelligence agencies. Although I would like to think the anti-virus corporations keep their distance from intelligence agencies, it would be difficult to imagine Kaspersky Anti-Virus basing itself in Moscow without at least some cooperation with the FSB.

Aug 12, 2008 - 10:29 pm 128. DrJ:

You can run Windows unique executables with Wine or VMWare on top of Linux.

Yes, I know that, and I mentioned it in my initial posting. Part of my work is with 3D models and large 3D data sets that you have to walk through. I need the graphics acceleration from a hardware device. VMware is getting better on that front, but it still is nowhere near using a real professional graphics card in hardware.

The less that is said about Wine, the better. I have found it to be the most frustrating piece of software in all of OSS. And yes, I know about CodeWeavers’ commercial version.

I’ve also used remote X11 sessions, remote desktop to a Windows box, and vnc sessions. I’ve tried all the various approaches, and it really is easier to use it on local hardware.

I also have had absolutely no issues with Windows. The only box (out of a dozen or so) I have that has never crashed runs W2K. I’ve even stopped running anti-malware programs, since I never get any (yes, I do check every now and again), use a good firewall, and practice safe computing on them.

I’m no Windows lover, but I think most of the complaints about it are ill-founded, and it does have its place. Using Unix tools (like the ones from AT&T) even make the command-line usable. It is no replacement for *nix, but for some things it is really the only way. I could go into my workflow, but that really is beyond the scope of this forum.

Aug 12, 2008 - 10:30 pm 129. buddy larsen:

Mike S, you’re losing your case –try this: “Ladies and Gentlemen of the jury, my client did load a pistol, and did aim it at the regretfully now deceased, and did begin pulling the trigger. Then suddenly, shots rang out! Yes, the pistol, that dirty little pistol, had gone off.” –and, you know, wing it from there.

Aug 12, 2008 - 10:30 pm 130. Dan:

Doh, that should be: why would the president need to be immediately notified if they believed them to be carrying 240KG of explosives?

Aug 12, 2008 - 10:31 pm 131. sarkis:

u sure about the abkhazian populace, fedya? I know that the locals have been cleansed much through history (in WW2 Stalin attempted to relocate them east and montainous villages that couldn’t be reached were simply bombed) but afaik it still has plenty of these mountain villages of syncretic muslims who live for some reason longer lives on average than just about any other ethnicity on Earth.

any news from the EU meeting? Latvia and Poland are trying to stir the pot, I hear.

Aug 12, 2008 - 10:31 pm 132. Ledger:

Although I am not an expert, it appears that the “internet” as we know it works on the “honor system.” It’s clear that the Russins discarded the honor system and jammed most internet communications. Hence, the internet is pretty much non-secure (unless you have the military’s version at your fingertips).
Other than this current DDOS attack on Georgia I have only studied two other high profile attacks:

The hijacking of YouTube by Pakistan.

That was done by poisoning BGP routing tables. Or, simply put Pakistan fraudulently advertised that their routers had the shortest route to YouTube and then sent all the request into a black hole.

See: Youtube offline
http://www.datacenterknowledge.com/archives/2008/Feb/24/youtube_offline_pakistan_telecom_blamed.html

The Ron Paul case of Spamming which involved a clever Trojan program to turn thousands of computers in to email spammers. The same concept could be used for DDOS attack.

See: The Ron Paul bots and the Srizbi kernel mode Trojan
http://www.secureworks.com/research/threats/ronpaul/?threat=ronpaul

Aug 12, 2008 - 10:48 pm 133. sarkis:

maybe china would start fomenting an evenk separatist movement and then kaboom roll in to save them from ethnic cleansing. too bad they are nomadic and kinda spread around. ah well, pick another siberian tribe, they are all endangered.

Aug 12, 2008 - 10:51 pm 134. buddy larsen:

@lifeofmind-10:23: ”The Chinese are heavily invested in Iranian gas fields and may support a grand bargain with the Russians to divide the region up against the Americans” –India, English-speaking India, huge counterweight, adding all of subcontinent, Indian Ocean, and Pacific onto balance. Even more so if Russ Navy goes to Davy Jones Locker defending Persians.

@Teresita-10:28: ”Russian people are going to realize their standard of living is declining again, and there’s a bunch of Putin crony billionaires running around moving their oil wealth to foreign banks” –precisely the situation that made Hitler jump off two years before his generals were ready. The books. He was ’spent’ and needed to re-frame Europe mach schnell.

Aug 12, 2008 - 10:53 pm 135. Alexis:

One thing that should be remembered about the Kosovo War is that the United States actually dropped bombs specifically to take down Serbia’s electrical grid. Why? One possible reason was cyberwarfare by Serbs against American computers at the time.

This war hasn’t seen the use of graphite bombs and probably won’t. However, cyberwarfare is a means to increase the cost of the other side to keep in contact with one’s own side. So, if (for example) a Saudi wants to keep out pornography from a foreign country, the two logical means to do this. He can either use a conventional filter or he can attack the foreign country’s computers and create sufficient harm to them that the foreign country decides to cut off access to Saudi computers.

If one wants to seal one’s country off, a series of cyberattacks against computers of other countries makes perfect sense. That way, any barrier will necessarily become the fault of somebody else. The act of setting up a barrier would then become a pretext for accusations of xenophobia and racism. Given the high political costs of getting tarred with the label “xenophobe” or “racist”, it makes sense to ensure that barriers and boycotts become the responsibility of the other side of a quarrel. The key in this game is to provoke the other side while looking reasonable in public.

Aug 12, 2008 - 10:57 pm 136. whiskey:

My guess is that the operational pause/cease-fire was due to limitations on pilots.

Russia only has so many. Losses their, from various anti-Air systems, are far more deadly than that to armored vehicles. Pilots are not easily replaced. Still, the application of the lessons of OIF by the Russians is impressive. They certainly did not act like that of the USSR in Afghanistan.

I wonder if Putin will fall given that he has not accomplished his twin objectives: demolition of the Georgian pipeline and world oil pushed back up. It is very strange that Medvedev is speaking and Putin is silent. Abkhazia and S. Ossetia are unimportant even to their inhabitants. Rather, it’s the oil (and pipeline) that matter. That still lies in Georgian hands.

Aug 12, 2008 - 11:02 pm 137. Lifeofthemind:

@Buddy Larsen-10:53 “India, English-speaking India, huge counterweight”
My 7:43 am comment on the last thread:

Perhaps we could propose replacing Russia with India on the UN Security Council.

Aug 12, 2008 - 11:02 pm 138. mark_b:

Teresita:

That wasn’t

Lousiana Baptist University
Suite 113
1024 Food Court Way

was it?

I earned that degree in Foreign Relations through evaluated life experience. I have a cruise jacket to prove it. And about twenty pounds of term papers.

I decided to major in Foreign Relations after my experience of exchanging “salutes” with our Soviet “Comrades” from the hangar bay of an aircraft carrier.

Aug 12, 2008 - 11:03 pm 139. Lifeofthemind:

US, allies weigh punishment for Russia So far we cancel a joint exercise and talk about talking about not inviting them to join the OECD.

Aug 12, 2008 - 11:16 pm 140. supercargo:

Depending on the integrity of your national broadcasters, you might have seen video of column after column of abandoned Georgian military vehicles, none of which had evidence of Russian targeting. One video shows piles of Georgian uniforms.

So much for the patria o muerte rhetoric. The Soros propped Georgian leadership have been proven to be stale vessels of spent nationalism. They had to keep their Stalinism on the back burner, so they dredged up the memorty of the sick f$%&, Gamsakhurdia, to inflame the revanche. The plan: attack the 2 breakaway sectors while Putin was at the Olympics, and then call for NATO membership and shill for Article 5 protection.

Gamsakhurdia was so depraved that he accused Gorbachev of staging the 1991 coup. How cynical. Once elected on the “Georgia for the Georgians” slogan, he breached the trusteeship given Georgia over minority majority sectors. When he was tossed out of office and murdered, his fanatic followers sought out George Soros to prop the election of nationalists, under the cyncial pro-west/pro free enterprise sham. After they succeeded in 2003, they set the stage for the ethnic cleansing of the trustee lands, with the complicity of NATO’s darkest elements. Note: over half million Christian Mandeans and Chaldeans have been coerced into exile from Iraq. President Bush refuses to acknowledge same. He is hardly a beacon of liberty. His relations with the Saud terrorist entity are fellatial.
http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/033jbwFcs44hz/610x.jpg
http://www.lailalalami.com/blog/archives/bush_saud.jpg
http://www.world-o-crap.com/BushSaudKiss.jpg
http://www.hermes-press.com/bush_kiss.jpg

The Georgians have witnessed the Revanche fraud for what it was. The Gamsaks didn’t hate Russification; they hated Russia. And Putin didn’t want haters on his borders.

At least 75% of posters at Belmont Club wrote pure crap, and did so in face of easily attainable fact. I have posted the following before. Maybe it will sink in now. Georgia’s 2003 haters were loathsome, and they were as despicable as their mentors: Stalin and Gamsakhurdia. The following isn’t Pericles; it is testament to the deranging power of zealotry.
http://web.archive.org/web/20010414023800/http:/www.geocities.com/shavlego/ZG_Letter_SH.htm

Aug 12, 2008 - 11:17 pm 141. Gary Rosen:

“Do you know what the word Zionist means?”

It’s the pathetically neurotic obsession of misfucks and losers like C-fudd who can’t face up to their own stupidity and failure so they blame everything on the Jooooos. C-fudd proves it every single time he opens his piehole.

Aug 12, 2008 - 11:17 pm 142. Doug:

Russia has been uninvited from Pacific exercises with USN, Japan, and some other folk.
—
Apropos Hitler:
Why aren’t we making methanol from Coal as he did?
…not mere test amounts, either!

Methanol Uber Alles

The Air Plan that Defeated Hitler – Google Books Result
by Haywood S. Hansell, Haywood S. Hansell, Jr. – 1979 – History – 311 pages… 100 percent of her nitric acid (basic component of all explosives), and 99 percent of her equally important methanol were synthesized from coal, …

Aug 12, 2008 - 11:27 pm 143. buddy larsen:

Gary, thanks for the def –i always wondered what that word meant. i thought it meant people who go to church on saturday.

Aug 12, 2008 - 11:28 pm 144. Cannoneer No. 4:

What role did information warfare play in the Russia-Georgia war?

We’ll need to break down IO into its components.

sigintel @5:55 covered EW.

I expect it will be quite some time before anybody with inside knowledge of Georgian or Russian MILDEC share with us.

Same with OPSEC.

CNO played a large role, perhaps appearing larger to those in the West noticing the .ge sites go down and pop back up on blogspot. Georgia wasn’t as wired as Estonia, so probably they weren’t as vulnerable to CNA. My perception has been managed to credit the RBN cyber mercenaries for Russian CNA successes.

PSYOP. The whole Russian invasion of Georgia was PSYOP aimed at intimidating all the former Soviet republics and Warsaw Pact members. The kinetic portion in Georgia serving to add fear factor to the nonkinetic portion.
Portraying Ossetes as innocent victims of Georgian aggression was PSYOP.
Flooding the blogosphere with easily identifiable trolls was PSYOP which I do not think worked as intended.
Lots of open source discussion on Russo-Georgian War CNO and PSYOP, and the final words won’t be written for a long time.

Aug 12, 2008 - 11:55 pm 145. cedarford:

Fred on me, “c4″ – the pieces of the jigsaw puzzle, the pattern emerges. Right out of that bog mick knuckledragger, Pat Buchanan.,

Perhaps in your fevered mind, but pat Buchanan has served as the fearless canary in the coal mine warning well ahead of “the conventional wisdom” on the dangers of global trade screwing the American worker, mass immigration, Europe’s demographic collapse, China&Russia’s ongoing danger, and the foolish neocon wars for Empire and safeguarding Israel.
Add Buchanan is followed globally by conservative Parties, that his books are international best sellers, and his early work to invigorate Republicanism under Nixon, Reagan and you have a substantial contributor to American politics and debate on key issues. In his sunset, like Moynihan, that bog mick knuckledragger does more in a week to shape America and global discussion than Fred has done in a lifetime in his little balliwick.

Fred – I hope that smarter minds than my brain are able to see this handwriting on the wall and get moving in the right direction.

That doesn’t take much, since you are an unquestioning sort that laps up whatever the neocons put before you.

Fred – If we can’t save Georgia, we sure can destroy the Mullah’s toys, destroy Iran’s navy, bomb to smitereens the Revolutionary Guards, and decapitate the leadership. Won’t be much left for Moscow to work with. So, doing Iran will put it to Putin, right where it hurts. –Fred Aug, 11 2008.

Yeah, that makes sense. We go to war against Iran on very thin casus belli to help our “Special Friend” simply because Russia bitch-slapped our puppet ruler. Start a 3rd, major war to fight out over years at the same time as the other two wars drag on – with little Reservist eligibility left and our active duty people desperately needing a lull to renew and reset their abilities and learn from past bad American military tactical and strategic decisions.

Ledger – I think we have an obligation to those Georgian troops who helped us in the sand box to avenge the bombing and shelling of their families.

Fortunately, George Washington was wise enough to understand you kill your own citizens off in war not because of friendship with or “favor return obligation” to foreign nations – but only for American vital interests. Washington’s view on entangling alliances prevailed over the “Francophiles” who argued that the french help at Yorktown made France our BFF, and obligated us to “serve France when they asked for it.”

Washington had no room for such sentimental nonsense, understanding a nation should only ask for the lives, health, and suffering of it’s youth when the Nation would be imperiled, otherwise. Good. He avoided thousands of “grateful” US corpses littering French battlefields up through the Napoleonic wars. And we kept that policy wisely as other powers chewed themselves into 2nd rate nations in other wars where we interceeded late, or only when war was declared on us.

In the Cold War, we may have overextended ourselves – but managed to find a way for proxies to die in their own conflicts instead of Americans except for Vietnam and the direct Korean challenge up until the neocon era.
And we were still smart enough to avoid mutual defense treaties with nations that had long time conflicts with nations able to inflict mass slaughter on Americans if we intervened in matters outside our vital interests. (Which do not include in “vital interests” dying to prop up any democracy, capitalist system, or friendly nation or human rights crisis). Thus we have no Pact to die and bleed treasure for Conglolese or Darfuran welfare, no Pact obligating the US to defend Taiwan or the Philippines, no Pact committing US lives and treasure to Israel’s colonies in occupied lands or the Israelis even with the money & power of the Israel Lobby in play.

Fortunately, the Euros were saner and wiser than Bush and the neocons about keeping Ukraine and Georgia out of NATO. Washington’s warnings of entangling alliances finally were embraced by Europe AFTER they were ruined as major powers by two disastrous wars.
Good warning for those wose wealth and position ensures that they have no kids that risk military service, who wave and rattle their sabers wanting the US involved in at least 5 more simultaneous wars on top of the 2 trillion, near Army-breaking two protracted wars we are already caught up in. In Georgia. Against Syria, Iran, against Hamas&Hez, and humanitarian “surgical war” against Congo child warrior gangs, Sudanese…plus those suggesting we should add war with Pakistan, the Saudi “Islamofascists” for good measure, do a “lightning War” against Chavez, liberate Cuba, issue a war guarantee to Taiwan.

Its time for those intoxicated with their belief in American military power as an easy solution to all foreign problems, that comes risk-free for their own well-off families being shot at – to take a deep breather

Aug 13, 2008 - 12:42 am 146. cloudswihtoutwater:

Fresh claims of Russians moving into Gori.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080813/ap_on_re_eu/georgia_russia

Who knows what’s really happening?

Aug 13, 2008 - 2:04 am 147. fedya:

@Cannoneer No. 4:
PSYOP. The whole Russian invasion of Georgia was PSYOP aimed at intimidating all the former Soviet republics and Warsaw Pact members.

If their desired hard advantages are/were (1) a safe naval port (Sukhimi) and (2)defacto control over Trans-Caucasus pipelines, this (3), PSYOPS, is both larger and in service to the smaller goals.

@Lifeofthemind:
For your lovely plan to work it would demand sustained cooperation between Azeris, Georgians, Armenians and the Turks

Hmm, by focusing on specific stakeholders, you’re convincing me the “lovely” plan is an exciting possibility…

1: GEORGIA-AZERBAIJAN:
They are ALREADY cooperating on a number of pipeline projects! THEY ARE IN LOVE, BABY!!! They *need* each other existentially. That’s TROOLY-True Love when your alternatives are the Persians or The Bear.
Score: +1

2: ARMENIA:
Armenians are not now [and will not soon be] involved.

The one issue with the Armenians is keeping Russian troops based in Gyumri from moving on Georgia’s East. Turkey is a NATO country and Turkey needs the Gruzinii-Azerii axis to free itself of Russian-Persian domination.

Every one of the dozens of Trans-Caucasus pipeline proposals (there is a lot of competition for “Silk Road” pipeline proposals) I’ve noticed (using Google and then diving in) being touted are Armenia-free and differ only in whether they terminate in Southern Turkey or the Georgian Black Sea. Just take a good look at the Lesser Caucasus range; that’ll make explanation superfluous.
Score (for absence of Armenian involvement) +1

3: KURDISTAN:
What? Other than the PKK doing minor, temporary damage, have Kurds anywhere shut down any Arab or Turkish pipeline? If “No” is the wrong answer, please do tell me how so.

The newest trans-Caucasus pipeline enters Turkey and runs straight Southerly into Erzurum, thence to the Mediterranean. Even though it skirts around Kurdistan (Lake Van) it hasn’t seen any big knockouts. In general, Black Sea coastal Turkey is not populated by Kurds, no?

Anyway, ALL the players in this drama are Turkic peoples (no Kurds, whose language is Indo-Iranian), with the sole exception of the Georgians. Gruzinii (Georgians in Russkii-style patois) have already figured out that they can deal to advantage with any friggin’ Turks they’ve ever seen, whether in Anatolia or around the Caspian.
Score: 0 (a wash)

CHINA:
Sure they are stuck with playing The Game, for NOW. They can’t mount a military challenge to the current monopolists, so they deal–albeit at a distinct disadvantage. That is why they would possibly be enthusiastic guarantors of any relatively cheap way to keep those damned Czarist soliviki out of their pocketbooks.

Russia and Persia want to extract a surcharge on anything sold to either China or the West, and everyone knows it, including the Caspiskii who are getting astronomically screwed by the Russians. The ’stans can quadruple their pay while cutting China’s or Ukraine’s prices in half, according to supposedly knowledgeable people. I think it is reasonable to assume that we can both vastly improve income going to the ’stans AND cut prices to Les Chinoise and the free world.

Chinese competing with Bulgaria, et al, on producers’ prices will do much better than if they have to pay a Russian or Persian surcharge. A free market for Central Asian oil and gas will tend to encourage peaceful cooperation, more predictable prices, and a broader–more equitable–distribution of risk throughout. This contrasts sharply with the present Russian-dominated “Great Game” of Imperialist Market Chokeholders.
Score: +2, (a lot of money and a lot of muscle)

RUSSIA:
“innovation Putin brought to this game”

Putin is stuck in a bad dilemma, and he’s stuck with the outdated tools of Czarist mobster-style, feudalistic oppression. The Commies never came up with a better system, merely a vastly more ruthless version of the Same Old Stuff. He’s a high-level mobster. Mobsters die quickly (at other mobster’s hands) when their intended victims pull together and fight back. “The Godfather” is a cute fairytale with a great soundtrack, right? So too, is Czarist control of the Trans-Caucasus and the Caspian, [I say].

Score: 0 (a wash)

Total score:
+4 out of possible plus or minus 5
(yes, I rigged it, just like Pooty-Tooty-Baby thought he rigged the outcome of his invasion of Georgia; mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa…)
Seriously, wanna bet? Let’s open a futures market on it.

OK, how much would you bet that if we keep a “Silk Road” based on a free Georgia open, that Putin will live past New Year’s day, 2010?

50:50?
20:80?

Mmm-hmmm, thought so. So, umm, is this worth a struggle to find out if it works? I’d say, YES, we can bet on it.

Aug 13, 2008 - 2:13 am 148. cloudswithoutwater:

By the way, what’s the source of that map Wretchard has in the other thread? I like the way it shows resources such as mines and wells as well as transportation links.

Aug 13, 2008 - 2:15 am 149. Brian:

Maybe im wrong but it seems so obvious that Russia is on a major smear campaign after checking through blogs,forums and websites.Like a virus,blog after blog ive checked has so many pro-russian comments and some anti-semetic ones as well.
Anyways Russia cant be more obvious in wanting to cut that pipeline so they have a stranglehold on the oil market.America really better start paying attention.Im talking about the citizenry not the leadership.I know part of america is too busy chasing conspiracy butterflies!
Anyways Russia can take all this horses*&t they are shovelling on the blogs,and direct it right back to Moscow because this is one freedom lovin westerner who isnt falling for it!

Aug 13, 2008 - 2:28 am 150. fedya:

@Brian:
Like a virus,blog after blog ive checked has so many pro-russian comments and some anti-semetic ones as well.

I wonder if someone can document this blog-comment stuffing campaign much the same way that Charles Johnson (Little Green Footballs) and others exposed Dan Rather, Green Helmet Guy and “Pallywood” news videos?

I don’t know how, and it might require a huge amount of tedious research that has access to server logs documenting commenter’s IP addresses, but it would be great to finger them in the eyes of the American people.

Americans don’t like THEIR OWN ballot boxes stuffed and we don’t like to be led by the nose, nossir.

Aug 13, 2008 - 2:37 am 151. Doug:

Desert Rat: Maverick talked to the President of Georgia, and told him that “today, we’re all Georgians.”

Teresita said…

“I’m not a Georgian, even symbolically. We built their whole army up from scratch using US Army surplus,
and part of the deal was to have some of their warm bodies in Iraq.
It’s not like we owe them anything, after that plane ride home.
The President of Georgia made a big shit sandwich and now the folks who put him into office have to eat it.”

Aug 13, 2008 - 3:08 am 152. Cannoneer No. 4:

Cyber Thugs March Through Georgia

Aug 13, 2008 - 3:09 am 153. Cannoneer No. 4:

Information War Accompanies Fighting in Georgia

Aug 13, 2008 - 4:05 am 154. Dan:

And so… a long pause, followed by??? What comes next?

Are the Russians seriously going to hold territory here long-term?

Aug 13, 2008 - 4:10 am 155. cloudswithoutwater:

BBC reporting definite fighting in Gori, Russian tanks in at least the military bases outside the city as well.

Aug 13, 2008 - 4:32 am 156. M. Simon:

Buddy,

Did I call it or what?

Some One Got Taught A Lesson

Aug 13, 2008 - 4:46 am 157. Cannoneer No. 4:

Wednesday morning, Russian troops followed by irregular Ossetian militias seized the strategic city of Gori and deployed armored vehicles on the nation’s main highway that leads to the capital city Tbilisi

Aug 13, 2008 - 4:55 am 158. Lifeofthemind:

Do the Georgians have the forces positioned to destroy the tunnel and “break the shaft?”
Do they have the SpecForces to destroy the rail line into Abkhazia?
Have they been supplied sufficient ATMs to kill the snake once the head is cut off?

Debka, yes I know it is Debka, reports that a Russian amphibious force is moving on Batumi.
Still waiting to see which way the Turks jump.

Aug 13, 2008 - 5:11 am 159. Dan:

CNN is presently reporting that Russian armor is advancing on Tbilisi at “30 kilometers per hour.”

This is, obviously, NOT good.

Aug 13, 2008 - 5:15 am 160. Doug:

Putin for US president – more than ever
By Spengler

If Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin were president of the United States, would Iran try to build a nuclear bomb? Would Pakistan provide covert aid to al-Qaeda? Would Hugo Chavez train terrorists in Venezuela? Would leftover nationalities with delusions of grandeur provoke the great powers? Just ask Georgia’s President Mikheil Saakashvili, who now wishes he never tried to put his 4 million countrymen into strategic play.

ht – Buddy’s buddy, Jack.

Aug 13, 2008 - 5:27 am 161. Doug:

Georgia Says Russian Troops Still Fighting Despite Accord

An agreement was reached on Wednesday on a framework to end the war, but President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia said later that Russian tanks were still on the attack.
France Presses for E.U. Peace Monitors in Georgia

Aug 13, 2008 - 5:37 am 162. Cannoneer No. 4:

The convoy, comprised of about 60 tanks, APCs and other vehicles, was seen 10 kilometers (six miles) outside Gori heading in the direction of Tbilisi, the journalist said.

Russian soldiers leaned out of the windows of the trucks shouting “Tbilisi! Tbilisi!” and waving Russian flags.

Russian armored column heading toward Tbilisi from Gori

One armored task force won’t take Tbilisi.

Aug 13, 2008 - 5:39 am 163. jdwill:

Great comment section at BC! I have gotten as much info here as most other sources combined. I would very much like to see this bone picked:

George Friedman – Balance of Power

Did the Russians just give us a first class lesson in realpolitik? Recent news reports I see indicate that all may not be over, Russian boots are very much on the ground in Georgia.

Aug 13, 2008 - 5:40 am 164. Doug:

Steve @ FOX News confirms the Rusians continue to advance.

He was in Gori when 40 Russians APCs rolled in.

Just as I was watching.
- Desert Rat

Aug 13, 2008 - 5:43 am 165. S:

Look at the US budget deficit. Then look at the Treasury auctions and the buyers. Then think about the desperation t bring down the oil price. Now the Israeli defense minsiter saying no strike. The US is essentially incapable economically of doing anything. The Russians are saying they are diversifiying away from the dollar (not shocking afte trhey sold Agencies). The US may be militarily great,. but it is economically meak, and not just from a recessionary cyclcial standpojnt. The US economic situation is broken and the atempt to renew the Bretton Woods II system will fail. VDH has it right, the US and its friends better start thinking about a way to re-engineer the system to quickly. I am not sanguine. As the situation with the GSEs show, the foreign Sovs have won a vote over US domestic and foreign policy. Putin knows it. China knows it. Chavez knows it. The only people in denial are those still bathing in the specter of a smart bomb while the IEDs in the form of dollar reserves grow by the minute. The US franking privilage is going away and that is a far graver threat than Georgian kleptocracy, notwithstanding Russian brutality.

Aug 13, 2008 - 5:44 am 166. Dan:

Saakashvili is giving a pretty lengthy live interview on CNN right now.

Aug 13, 2008 - 5:44 am 167. Lifeofthemind:

I expect either 4,000 dead Russians in the next 6 hours followed by Putin or 1,000 dead Georgians and surrender.

Aug 13, 2008 - 5:44 am 168. Lifeofthemind:

Sarkozy better feel that Putin has bitch slapped him. He should get everything he has that can move into Poland and everything the new Nato states have that can move should get into the Ukraine Right Now.

Aug 13, 2008 - 5:56 am 169. Cannoneer No. 4:

“Russia has treacherously broken its word,”

Aug 13, 2008 - 5:57 am 170. Cannoneer No. 4:

Russian convoy heads into Georgia, violating truce

Aug 13, 2008 - 5:58 am 171. Cannoneer No. 4:

Steve Harrigan, Fox News, shows column of BMP’s in Gori. Says Russians are advancing without opposition. Georgian Army has melted away.

From what I know of Georgians, they will be heard from again.

Aug 13, 2008 - 6:08 am 172. Cannoneer No. 4:

Russians, rebels looting Georgian towns

Hundreds of South Ossetian rebels with some Russian army personnel went house-to-house in villages near Gori. They set houses ablaze and looted buildings.

Why does the vaunted Russian military machine need so much “help” from brigands?

Aug 13, 2008 - 6:12 am 173. exhelodrvr:

Doug,
“If Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin were president of the United States, would Iran try to build a nuclear bomb?”

You’re absolutely right. Of course, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, George Soros, John McCain, Mitt Romney, et al would all be dead from mysterious accidents by now. And Wretchard would be recovering from a car accident that occurred two days after he posted a column critical of the President.

Is that what you want?

Aug 13, 2008 - 6:14 am 174. buddy larsen:

Fox just announced Bush will address the crisis “before noon” from the Rose garden.

Aug 13, 2008 - 6:28 am 175. buddy larsen:

That’s two presidential statements in as many days –this one will have to escalate the last one.

Aug 13, 2008 - 6:29 am 176. buddy larsen:

US stock mkts opening steeply down, gold & oil up.

Aug 13, 2008 - 6:31 am 177. cjm:

spengler has lost his mind. if putin were president here, we would enjoy the same material wealth and life expectancy of russians. it was an idiotic column by a writer i have enjoyed up until this column. everything he has ever said, and will say, is now suspect.

c4 is mad at the jews because he is a beta and blames them somehow for this embarassing condition.

Aug 13, 2008 - 6:32 am 178. DanM:

Buddy,

I’ll say it again… C4 IS Pat Buchanan.

Aug 13, 2008 - 6:33 am 179. M. Simon:

Spengler gets a clunker every couple of years. I wrote him about one around 2002.

Nobody is perfect.

BTW I sent him a message on his latest.

Aug 13, 2008 - 6:37 am 180. buddy larsen:

could well be a press flack for him, DanM –fer sher –

Aug 13, 2008 - 6:39 am 181. RattlerGator:

Spengler has some very interesting quirks. This is probably one of them — he’s making a point, I suspect, not a statement of preference. More than likely, a sad commentary on the state of the world and the base nature of humanity.

Aug 13, 2008 - 6:40 am 182. M. Simon:

Steve Harrigan, Fox News, shows column of BMP’s in Gori. Says Russians are advancing without opposition. Georgian Army has melted away.

It is called a strategic retreat. Something the Germans in WW2 were not allowed to do. It made their army brittle. Of course it is bad for PR at least before the counter stroke.

Attacking the pointy end of the spear (except for delaying actions) is a fools errand.

Aug 13, 2008 - 6:41 am 183. buddy larsen:

Rus foreign ministry issues statement ”we must destroy Georgian military equipment” –off Fox crawler –no details –but cover story in place now –this is not a broken treaty, this is housekeeping.

Aug 13, 2008 - 6:42 am 184. Joe Buzz:

Are there any differences between a Peackeeping denial of service(PDos) and a Permanent denial of service (PDos) attack?

Aug 13, 2008 - 6:43 am 185. cjm:

at first i thought spengler was going for some kind of swiftian kind of approach, but he seems tomean what he says in the article.

how long does it take a column to go 40km? are they using mule teams?

buchanan is a disgraceful toad and there is no greater sign that a person is a loser, than to support/quote him. pat buchanan, king of the betas.

Aug 13, 2008 - 6:44 am 186. Dan:

So… speculation on what Bush will say? I foresee a strongly worded statement. But little else.

Aug 13, 2008 - 6:45 am 187. neolex:

@cjm

c4’s anti-semitic rants baffle me because, otherwise, his line of thinking is fairly logical. It is stupid to inject anti-semitism, into something that might very well be a valid argument without it. It only undermines everything else that is said. Though, I suspect in c4s case, his entire argument is an excuse to insert a few anti-jew rants, rather than the rants being inserted to support his argument.

For the record, Zionist is a jew who believes that jews should live in the land of Israel, rather than in other countries (if c4 hates Jews, he should be supporting Zionists, so they would get off his lawn). Note that not all Zionists are nationalists. Some, though living in Israel completely oppose the existance of it as an independent country (for religious reasons) and have even met with Ahmadinejad (for medical reasons – of mental retardation).

Aug 13, 2008 - 6:49 am 188. neolex:

Russian tanks have went into an abandoned Georgian military base, south of Gori, they are no longer moving towards Tbilisi (for now).

Aug 13, 2008 - 6:51 am 189. buddy larsen:

There must be some kind of trouble in the Kremlin. This is insane otherwise. This is a lash-out at something –something besides the Georgian gov’t. Rus had already stepped over the line –now they keep going –this is ‘’screw the consequences” –meaning ‘’so what if it goes nuclear, who cares?”

Aug 13, 2008 - 6:52 am 190. JB:

It seems insane. They’re reaching a point of no return. They’re all in and think the West won’t call.

Aug 13, 2008 - 6:57 am 191. Medea:

This changes things:

http://www.airforcetimes.com/news/2008/08/airforce_georgian_airlift_081208w/

U.S. to fly supplies into war-torn Georgia

By Michael Hoffman – Staff writer
Posted : Wednesday Aug 13, 2008 9:24:37 EDT

Air Force officials are putting plans together to fly supplies into Georgia following Russian President Dmitri Medvedev’s order to end all military operations in the former Soviet state.
Air Force C-17s flew all of Georgia’s 2,000 troops deployed in Iraq to the Georgian capital, Tbilisi, on Sunday and Monday after the Georgian government recalled the troops and asked the U.S. to do so.
Pentagon officials are not releasing when or where the cargo aircraft will disembark or whether the supplies are humanitarian or military at this time due to security issues, according to Lt. Col. Elizabeth Hibner, a Defense Department spokeswoman.
“We will hopefully be able to say more this afternoon,” she said.
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin criticized the U.S. for flying Georgia’s troops home from Iraq while Russia’s troops advanced into the country after fighting broke out over the disputed regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
“It’s a pity that some of our partners, instead of helping, are in fact trying to get in the way,” said Putin at a Russian Cabinet meeting. “I mean, among other things, the United States airlifting Georgia’s military contingent from Iraq effectively into the conflict zone.”
Despite Medvedev’s call for a halt to military operations, the Georgian government has reported more attacks including air strikes against two Georgian villages.

Aug 13, 2008 - 7:00 am 192. Dan:

Medea:

Yes, it does. I can not imagine the US sending C-17s into Tbilisi without significant air cover.

Aug 13, 2008 - 7:04 am 193. Cannoneer No. 4:

Steve Harrigan says Russian armored column 12 miles from Tbilisi.

Aug 13, 2008 - 7:04 am 194. Johnny:

Helps to reckon the present nature of the Russian “Bear” is rather sick. Seems time to re-classify this so-called nation-state in terms of Gazprom, criminal elements, etc.

–

I’m also a regular Spengler reader. His latest bent is in direct opposition to VDH’s auto vs. demo-cratic advantage argument (re: Carnage & Culture). That’s a debate I’d like to witness.

–

When will Russian losses start to manifest in Georgia? Are we harboring false hopes on this front?

Aug 13, 2008 - 7:09 am 195. buddy larsen:

Bush 50 minutes from now –

Aug 13, 2008 - 7:10 am 196. cjm:

he’s going to name russia the transmission of evil.

it surprises me that anyone even mentions bush in the context of a situation requiring decisive action. i mean, the volleyball finals are today and everything.

the thinking person has to ask themselves, why would the russians swing the election to mccain like this? the only answer i can come up with is to stimulate u.s. defense spending so we are more ready to handle china.

Aug 13, 2008 - 7:19 am 197. Jay:

I agree with S. Finally someone is writing in besides me that we are living in a fools paradise with respect to the world economy. Even Australia with its strong dollar and commodity exports has some economic problems beyond the drought.
If O wins then our economy will tank. Read what happened to the Wiemar Republic after they reverted to the gold standard after the hyperinflation but still spent more than they were collecting in taxes.

Aug 13, 2008 - 7:20 am 198. Cannoneer No. 4:

Russian soldiers looting Georgian houses

Aug 13, 2008 - 7:22 am 199. neolex:

@cjm

I dont think US elections entered Russian calculations. There are too many other factors here. I suspect the election of Obama is a fait accompli in their mind, and they expect that events in Georgia will not enter the decision-making of georgraphically-challanged US voters. As such, they probably haven’t given it much though.

Aug 13, 2008 - 7:25 am 200. Medea:

Dan:
When the Pentagon spokesperson says it is not releasing more detailed info “due to security issues,” one should assume that they are taking care of all security aspects of the airlift, including your “significant air cover.”

Aug 13, 2008 - 7:29 am 201. M. Simon:

When the Pentagon spokesperson says it is not releasing more detailed info “due to security issues,”

You can also assume deliveries of hand held anti-tank weapons. And whatever else the boffins have cooked up in the last week or so.

Shoulder fired anti-air weapons for sure. Comms gear.

Aug 13, 2008 - 7:37 am 202. RattlerGator:

Interesting panel just concluded at AEI. Paraphrasing Ralph Peters, in response to absurd question from the audience comparing this Georgian response in S.O. to the Russian response to Chechnya, “Fine. You want a plebiscite in Abkhazia and S.O — you must likewise have one in Chechnya, etc.”

Very good point.

Aug 13, 2008 - 7:43 am 203. buddy larsen:

from a comment @ roger simon’s;

“…if you feel so strongly about Russia’s aggression against Georgia do what I have done and call their embassy and express your anger in a non-violent way of course. I find the military attache to be the most fun. His # 202 965 1181.”

well hell it couldn’t hoit.

Meanwhile, oil & gold, lately in near free-fall due to supply/demand forces, are reversed, oil up two bucks, while Dow index down 150 to below 11,500.

IOW, mkts reacting –tho not dramatically –but approaching the edge of dramatically.

Bush on the hour, coming up –

Aug 13, 2008 - 7:43 am 204. Doug:

Close the gap and RR.
A-10’s w/air cover.

Aug 13, 2008 - 7:43 am 205. steveaz:

After sleeping on Wretchard’s questions, I decided to post…

I see a continuous thread of concerted psy-Ops running right through American and European media organizations’ products with one determinable thrust beginning on November 11 2000.

The gist of my comment is, many media outlets have been determined to convince Americans and the world that our democracy is, as Obama recently described it, and “improbable experiment in Democracy” that has gone awry. Once this meme was established, the “Divided Nation” meme followed directly on its heels. Later, pre-9/11 campaigns focused on undermining the “Ownership Society,” America’s most threatening affront to centralized governmental-ist dogma, the best example being the medias’ amplification of the “Housing Crisis” (which, in reality, represented a paltry percentage of all mortgages, and was legislated by urban Democratic politicians).

As soon as Operation Iraqi Freedom began, a cascade of print and television media reports began – all focused on sapping our will to forbear in the operation, including, but not limited to, “Abu Ghraib,” “American Gulag,” “Haditha,” and, of course, “Bush Lied.”

Other anti-American campaigns appeared in lulls in the Iraq-focused campaigns, too. To name a few: an Idaho congressman’s foot-tapping in a men’s restroom was amplified and repeated ad nauseum to effect turn-out for Republicans in an election, the “consensus” on “Global Warming” and the skewed debate in the UN over the Kyoto Accords, numerous media-hyped “conferences” convened by the UN on ‘-isms” like racism, and, of course, the media-mediated moratorium on all development of additional, domestic sources of petroleum left us and our allies supine and vulnerable to Russia’s moves to control oil-flows internationally.

To keep this short, I’m convinced that, “Globalist” American Democrats and Left-sympathetic media around the world have been marinading our nation in nagging, low-grade psy-Ops products, sometimes intentionally, sometimes not, with the ultimate outcome being that in 2008 we are paralyzed in the face of real aggression against an ally.

My larger point is, the elements of cyber- and info-war evident in the Georgian conflict are contiguous with these earlier media campaigns, and devoted American media should take a hard look at their products to see where they may have been suckered into betraying their nation.
-Steve

Aug 13, 2008 - 7:49 am 206. buddy larsen:

Bush will mention this, maybe? That massive armada on the high seas?

Aug 13, 2008 - 7:50 am 207. Doug:

Tim Kaine: Barack Obama Solved The Crisis In Georgia

Obama: Invasion “wholly inconsistent with the Olympic ideal.”

It only adds to the tragedy and outrage of the current situation that Russia has acted while the world has come together in peace and athletic competition in Beijing.
This action is wholly inconsistent with the Olympic ideal.

Aug 13, 2008 - 7:51 am 208. buddy larsen:

Steve, congrats on admirable compression. I agree with you.

Aug 13, 2008 - 7:56 am 209. Cannoneer No. 4:

What devoted American media?

A few blogs and ezines.

Aug 13, 2008 - 7:58 am 210. steveaz:

Typo Alert: ‘…other pre-9/11 campaigns focused…” should read “…other post-9/11 campaigns focused…”

-Steve

Aug 13, 2008 - 7:59 am 211. buddy larsen:

”ownership society” has terrified the parties of government, and mobilized them globally to prevent a breakout of anti-government voters into a self-sustaining majority.

Aug 13, 2008 - 7:59 am 212. Konyok:

My reptilian brain is involuntarily deducing a kind of bawdlerized Heisenberg principle regarding unfolding history. We can’t know what’s *really* going on because our attempts to perceive it themselves alter it. It’s not just the fog of war, or information war, or even just exhaustion from wading through propaganda. It’s not even the feedback loop between reportage and miltary ops. It’s something that feels random and chaotic to me.

What do we make of this apparent tendency of the Russians to step up operational tempo in the hours before sundown? Is it actually the case, or is it that Western journalists have to file something? Is it the Russians playing to the journalists’ deadlines?
Has it become their favorite diversion to direct our attention to Gori to cover other developments? (Enter and then leave Gori – raids on Senaki) Now we learn the Russians re-enterd Gori and may be on the road to Tblisi. And we have reports from Debka that Russia will launch amphibious assault on Ajaria and retake the base at Batumi.
Are the Russians playing the media, or adapting to it, or even playing to it?

Are Russian casualties heavy or light? Are they exercising impressive tactical discipline or is the Argentine Star correct that Russian troops are looting Georgian villages. Are both true?

Aug 13, 2008 - 8:07 am 213. buddy larsen:

Bush statement running late –due at top of hour –he must be taking calls –

Aug 13, 2008 - 8:09 am 214. Doug:

Georgia Says Accord Broken as Russia Occupies City
A Russian tank battalion occupied the Georgian city of Gori on Wednesday, in what Georgia’s president called a flagrant defiance of an agreement struck only hours earlier.

Aug 13, 2008 - 8:10 am 215. S:

Jay,

The economic side of the equation is completely missed. China is scared to death to break the vendor financing trade to the US. Europe is aged and deteriorating. Japan is still trying to figure out how to escape ZIRP (zero interest rate policy). Russia through this advance is telling the west something: it is disengaging. Maybe not the US Suez moment, but it seems like it is getting closer and closer. The US is living on faith and faith alone right now. It needs to be addressed and I have no doubt the US is up to it. But until this gov’t demands the US sacrifice, and halt ludicrous stimulus garbage, defiance will grow. Danger room posted a quote the other day: amateurs focus on tactics professionals on logistics. Well part and parcel of logistics is resource availability. The US is severely exposed on its flanks and is in danger of being cut off and garrisoned. No fancy smart bomb shock and awe fixes this. The solution begins and ends with retarding the economic policies that have led us into this cul de sac. the solution is not more of the same. The best equipment in the world is worthless if you can’t fuel it.

Aug 13, 2008 - 8:10 am 216. Peterike:

neolex: “expect that events in Georgia will not enter the decision-making of georgraphically-challanged US voters.”

On the other hand, they may think Atlanta is under siege.

Doug: “18 years of using DOS and Windows computers and I have never lost data to viri or hard drive failure!”

You should understand that viri no longer attack your data. That was in the days of script kiddies trying to become underground rock stars by taking down as many PCs as they could. But for years now, viri creation has been dominated by organized crime (yes, a lot of it Russian) who take a stealth approach. The last thing they want you to think is that you have a virus. They will sit there happily lapping up your personal information. You could have a dozen viruses and never know it, other than by running a good virus scan or occasionally wondering why your PC is so slow. Speaking of which, if anyone has a lot of computers at home Sunbelt Software offers a great deal on unlimited home use of their new Vipre product for fifty bucks a year. No, I don’t work for them, but I worked in the AV business for years and I know a good deal when I sees one.

Aug 13, 2008 - 8:12 am 217. RattlerGator:

I’m very satisfied with that statement from the President.

Aug 13, 2008 - 8:14 am 218. buddy larsen:

okay, USA is going in, land, sea, and air, on a humanitarian mission.

Aug 13, 2008 - 8:15 am 219. Cannoneer No. 4:

Humanitarian aid that penetrates T-80’s is what the need.

Naval humanitarian aide. Into the Black Sea.

Aug 13, 2008 - 8:16 am 220. S:

Bush sending Condi Rice to France – great the blind leading the blind. She is a national disgrace.

Aug 13, 2008 - 8:17 am 221. DanM:

Disappointed in the press conference. No air cover, no staging of weapons, nothing. But, why would he broadcast it?

Aug 13, 2008 - 8:18 am 222. neolex:

Peterike said: On the other hand, they may think Atlanta is under siege.

LOL!!!!

Great statement by Bush. This is exactly what should have been done, but on August 10th, instead precious time has been lost and US was made look weak and undecisive.

Aug 13, 2008 - 8:18 am 223. Doug:

Currently use Avast Antivirus. (free)
Windows Defender (free)
Router/Firewall.

Aug 13, 2008 - 8:18 am 224. neolex:

According to the statement, US is placing it’s military on the ground, what else do you want him to say?

Aug 13, 2008 - 8:19 am 225. Cannoneer No. 4:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/images/webcast-rose-garden2.jpg

Aug 13, 2008 - 8:21 am 226. buddy larsen:

Condi is stopping off in France, because France holds the EU portfolio on this crisis, and Sarkozy just got humiliated & needs some face back. but then she is going into Tiblisi.

Aug 13, 2008 - 8:23 am 227. sigintel:

“military run” humanitarian effort on air and sea…presence, presence, presence. If the Russians are smart they’ll withdraw out of Gori and Poti today and be happy with their land grab of the two breakaway provinces…but Putin has an agenda to re assert Russian power in the region and I dont think he’ll withdraw without causing the Georgians more pain and the west more angst.

Aug 13, 2008 - 8:24 am 228. JB:

Seems well-played. That’s a public line-in-the-sand embedded into a humanitarian mission. Russians killing Georgian civilians, we’re helping them.

Aug 13, 2008 - 8:24 am 229. Dan:

He made a point of saying the airspace would remain open.

I’m thinking some humanitarian aid should be be taped to some A-10s right about now.

The next 24 hours are going to be, well… interesting. And still, not a peep from Turkey. Hmmmm.

Aug 13, 2008 - 8:25 am 230. Doug:

Please Help Us!

Aug 13, 2008 - 8:26 am 231. buddy larsen:

Turkey has a veto on the straits, right? So Turk silence is Turk help. Right?

Aug 13, 2008 - 8:28 am 232. Sid:

Any word on the Turkish frigate off Batumi?

Aug 13, 2008 - 8:30 am 233. buddy larsen:

Western oil sector stocks now making leaping gains on Wall Street.

Aug 13, 2008 - 8:34 am 234. neolex:

The key point of Bush’s statement is that US military is tasked to conduct a humanitarian relief operation that involves airforce and navy. This is very unambigous. If it implies US navy moving into Black Sea, it would be unprecedented, so this was a very strong statement.

@DanM
Bush’s statement implies all of those things. Saying them outright would be diplomatically stupid.

Aug 13, 2008 - 8:35 am 235. Cannoneer No. 4:

The president said U.S.-17 aircraft with humanitarian supplies are already on its way and U.S. aircraft and naval forces will deliver humanitarian and medical supplies

“The mission will be vigorous and ongoing,” Bush said from the White House Rose Garden with Defense Secretary Bob Gates and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice by his side.

“We expect Russia to honor its commitment to let in all forms of humanitarian assistance. We expect Russia to insure that all lines of communication and transport, including seaports, airports, roads and airspace, remain open for the delivery of humanitarian assistance and for civilian transit,” Bush said.

Not a good time for the Turks to stiff us again.

Aug 13, 2008 - 8:36 am 236. Dan:

But which naval forces? That ain’t exactly the Big Blue Sea there.

Aug 13, 2008 - 8:38 am 237. Medea:

Bush to Putin: Get out of all of Georgia or the US becomes the main supplier of the Georgian Army reconfigured for irregular warfare. Saakasvili’s speech yesterday featured Russia’s Chechnya experience as a warning. The Georgians in guerrilla war will be more ferocious than the Chechens. There is a story in ancient mythology of a Georgian lady of some 3,200 years ago who did not hesitate to kill her children in order to get to her enemy.

Aug 13, 2008 - 8:43 am 238. Joe Buzz:

Next Note from the FSB guys:

Why everybody get worked up. We agree to cease fire not cease driving our tank around the beautiful Georgia countryside. Peacekeeper sight seeing.

Aug 13, 2008 - 8:54 am 239. voyeur:

An unusual twist : Russian peacekeepers v. US humanitarian and medical supplies.

Aug 13, 2008 - 8:56 am 240. cjm:

does having the u.s. military in the ports and air fields of georgia count as a win for vlad the fumbler?

Aug 13, 2008 - 9:01 am 241. steveaz:

Konyok,
I share your confusion. Relying on media for current information can be like studying a light-bulb while thinking you are looking at the sun.

This is not accidental. The intention of most media organizations to confine the “news” consumer to an artificial, controlled theater.

There is hope, though. As the content in media products diverges from our elected Executive’s pronouncements the dissonance will, I think, enforce the Executive branch of government and bring citizens back to the Re-Public.

In a nutshell, folks will begin to tune-out the dissonant, unelecteds’ messages in favor of those uttered by accountable office-holders.

The fifth column, I think, is falling, and the Georgian conflict as it is silhouetted by cogent discussions on interactive New Media outlets like Wretchard’s could be giving it a helping, final push.

Aug 13, 2008 - 9:02 am 242. buddy larsen:

Dan, one of the navy blogs has said that USA already has some stuff in the Black sea which can do some stuff if it has to. That was about it, and it has passed off the page now. At the bottom now is:

The Telegraph is reporting a Russian warship is patrolling the Black Sea coastline around the port of Poti and was said by coastguard officials to be enforcing a 50-mile exclusion zone.

“We haven’t tested what the Russians will do, so I suppose there is a blockade,” said Alan Middleton, the port’s British general manager, who is from Bristol.

The events of the last week have dealt a huge blow to confidence in the port, which handles metals and commodities transhipments to Central Asia, and in Georgia’s wider economy.

“It is certainly force majeure for ship owners,” Mr Middleton said.
Ukrainian news is running several stories about “a big Ukrainian ferry with 48 crew members on board [that] was blocked in the Georgian port of Poti.” The Ukrainian government is working with Russia to allow for the ship to get to sea.

Aug 13, 2008 - 9:02 am 243. Konyok:

Bush has also waited until the Russians are incontestably in violation of their own stated policy. Armored probes toward Tblisi at this point simply can’t be justified with any “peacekeeping” or stabilization rationalization.
He is laying down the trip wire.

Aug 13, 2008 - 9:03 am 244. nichevo:

Just for ships and giggles, what is European reaction to this? Anything in Le Monde, The Times, Bild, whatever? Do they really feel indifferent to this crisis?

Aug 13, 2008 - 9:04 am 245. buddy larsen:

Russ irregulars behind the columns burning Georgian homes just can’t be glossed as ”housekeeping” and ”tidying up the lines” –

Aug 13, 2008 - 9:10 am 246. Cannoneer No. 4:

U.S. Naval Update Map: Aug. 12, 2008

Aug 13, 2008 - 9:14 am 247. Pascal:

Steveaz: “Globalist” American Democrats and Left-sympathetic media around the world have been marinading our nation in nagging, low-grade psy-Ops products, sometimes intentionally, sometimes not….

In the last KRLA news-hour update, news anchor Steve Counts referred to Georgia (after nearly 20 years) as “the former Soviet Republic of Georgia” without a hint of irony. KRLA is the Salem broadcasting home station of Hugh Hewitt.

Perhaps I need to remind you all that KRLA and Salem Broadcasting is still a member in good standing of conservative talk radio.

Aug 13, 2008 - 9:17 am 248. Cannoneer No. 4:

USS Ashland

Aug 13, 2008 - 9:20 am 249. Doug:

Burning Georgian homes are “Hotbeds of Resistance.“

Aug 13, 2008 - 9:21 am 250. Cannoneer No. 4:

Buddy, “Cossacks” and Ossetian “irregulars” are right behind the Russian Army picking over the spoils Ivan left.

The Russian version of Frau, Komm reverberates throughout Georgia.

Aug 13, 2008 - 9:24 am 251. Eggplant:

Bush is doing the right thing (again). But this is scary stuff. We’ll soon have American troops facing Russian troops in Georgia while in the background there are over a thousand ex-Soviet Russian ICBMs pointed at the United States and a comparable number of US ICBMs pointed at the Russians. At least our ICBMs are well maintained and can deliver functioning warheads.

Let’s hope this thing doesn’t snowball.

Aug 13, 2008 - 9:26 am 252. sigintel:

If the US Navy is denied free access to the port of Poti then this thing will escalate fast.

Aug 13, 2008 - 9:29 am 253. cjm:

If it were done when ’tis done, then ’twere well
It were done quickly: if the assassination
Could trammel up the consequence, and catch
With his surcease success; that but this blow
Might be the be-all and the end-all here

Aug 13, 2008 - 9:29 am 254. buddy larsen:

Bush said the airlift is already in progress. This is hold-your-breath & say a little prayer time. If Ivan wants war with USA, we’ll know in a matter of hours.

Aug 13, 2008 - 9:30 am 255. Doug:

I hope there is a hotline from Hawaii to the UN.
Only a World Citizen can save us now.

Aug 13, 2008 - 9:34 am 256. trangbang68:

Heard on NPR, (for once not national Pravda Radio); Russians and Ossetian rabble separating men and women in camps, executing civilians, committing human rights violations( can anyone say rape). It sounds like Ratso and the boys in the Balkans all over again.
When Otto Skorzeny and the SS troops dressed in American uniforms to get behind the lines in the Battle of the Bulge; the American sentries started asking questions about pop culture.
So Sylwester name the original makeup of the rap group NWA.
Who was the goat of Boston for a ground ball through his wickets in the World Series against the Mets in 1986?
What company did Wile E. Coyote buy his equipment from?
Who is Richard Jewell?
What Ford automobile was a laughing stock in the late 1950’s?
By the way Mike, that dumb black cat that chased Tweety was spelled Sylvester not Sylwester. You Commie dog,you!

Aug 13, 2008 - 9:39 am 257. sigintel:

Cannoneer No. 4…when I lived in Hawaii, I watched the USS Ashland in maneuvers off of the Kanehoe Marine Corp Base…they launched huge hovercraft and mucho amphibs in less than a couple of hours…we can land stuff without Poti if necessary.

Aug 13, 2008 - 9:39 am 258. Konyok:

Cannoneer,

We should rename you the Belmont Headline News Network.
Your informative posts are always just that.
Thanx!

Aug 13, 2008 - 9:42 am 259. M. Simon:

over a thousand ex-Soviet Russian ICBMs pointed at the United States

The question is will they work? My guess? Very doubtful. If they use alcohol fuel for any part of the missiles my guess is that it was drunk up or sold on the black market long ago.

They really do not want to show how utterly weak they are. Bad move by Putin’s minions.

And Obama just got an August surprise.

Aug 13, 2008 - 9:42 am 260. Sid:

Would we use Batumi?

Aug 13, 2008 - 9:44 am 261. buddy larsen:

trangbang, jeez, if NPR didn’t spike that story, the worm has really turned. Get our all-heart & no-brain American wets on Ivan’s case & it’s a different world –

Aug 13, 2008 - 9:46 am 262. jdwill:

I’ll make a prediction. Russia will back off, slowly, and with ‘when I’m ready’ attitude. The Friedman article I linked earlier lays it out pretty clearly. We played a half-baked game of encroachment and we got called. If my guess is right, Putin and Co. will play a long game and use the intimidation factor to get concessions from other recently independent border states.

Aug 13, 2008 - 9:49 am 263. JB:

@buddy: Is this Putin’s “this is madness! This is Russia!” moment?

Aug 13, 2008 - 9:52 am 264. Cannoneer No. 4:

We need to go in to Poti, to make a point.

What’s coming up is why we pay for the greatest armada the world has ever seen.

A sailor never knows when his chance to be a hero will come.

Aug 13, 2008 - 9:56 am 265. Cannoneer No. 4:

Rush Limbaugh has KGB trolls, too.

Aug 13, 2008 - 9:57 am 266. Shivermetimbers:

Doug

“I hope there is a hotline from Hawaii to the UN.
Only a World Citizen can save us now.”

I fell off my chair reading that one

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:01 am 267. cjm:

if by concessions you mean “a huge stick up the ass” then i agree.

otherwise i see russia paying for this over and over again. it really is damaging to a country to be the enemy of the u.s. and russia most definitely is our enemy.

it’s almost as if the PRC were paying putin to do this.

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:01 am 268. S:

Us and Russian forces confronted each other in the balkins, recall when the Russians tried to prempt US troop movements..

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:02 am 269. Cannoneer No. 4:

Didi Madloba, Konyok.

Just doing my Civilian Irregular Information Operator duty.

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:03 am 270. Cannoneer No. 4:

USS McFaul (DDG 74)

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:11 am 271. buddy larsen:

Oil now up 4 to 117. I follow this mkt, and i can’t tell you what a huge move that is in the light of the reversal of momentum of the heretofor accelerating drop from 145. Putin has already defrayed a good chunk of cost. Gold up nearly 20 –also a major reversal of accelerating momentum. All the metals are reversing. All the reversing commods are Russian exports.

Michael Economides (oil & gas expert & author & Russia/Putin watcher) just on Fox says the real object of all this is to stop the proposed “Nambuka” (sp?) gas (nat gas, ”natty”) pipeline under the Caspian to western terminals. He said Gazprom, the world’s largest oil & gas company by a factor of six times, will not tolerate this pipeline being built, and Russ foreign policy is in Georgia in part –in large part –to kill that pipe in the crib.

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:23 am 272. Cannoneer No. 4:

“The Ladny [a Krivak-class guided missile frigate] of the Russian Black Sea Fleet has moored at Akzas Karagac, a Turkish naval base, thus starting its participation in Operation Active Endeavor in the Mediterranean,”

This according to RIA Novosti.

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:25 am 273. Dan:

Ummm… I don’t recall this in Bush’s speech, but hey…

“President George W. Bush’s pledge to send aid to Georgia means that the U.S. military will take control of the ex-Soviet state’s ports and airports, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili said on Wednesday.”

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSLD49893320080813?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:30 am 274. Konyok:

I urge all of the al Amriki tribe to drink more Georgian Wine!
It does go well with Civilian Irregular Information …

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:31 am 275. Dan:

Followed closely by…

“Georgia’s deputy defense minister says Russian troops are apparently pulling out of two towns. …”

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D92HGK5G0&show_article=1

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:35 am 276. buddy larsen:

newsflash from Fox biz news’ Stuart Varney:

“Russian foriegn ministry has just released this short statement: “The USA must choose now between a partnership with Georgia, or a partnership with Russia.”

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:35 am 277. Cannoneer No. 4:

Nabucco Pipeline

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:36 am 278. Plastic Snoopy:

Information Dissemination Has a couple of new updates on the Naval situation in the Black Sea. If you haven’t been reading ID, you should. First, a report from the Georgians. They claim that Russia has landed 4,0000 troops by sea. Also, and Bush made reference to this in his statement, the Russians have mined and sunk several Georgian Coast Guard vessels at dock.

The second update is a report from a Russian sailor about the naval action which sank the Georgian missile boat Tbilisi. The sailor reports that the Georgians managed to damage the Russian cruiser Moskva before the Tbilisi was sunk. Another Georgian vessel was damaged in the action, but moved off under her own power. (I think this one sank later.)

Galrahn adds some comments of his own. See his readers’ comments, too.

@trangbang68:

Listen, I’ve seen Mike Sylwester on Rantburg on and off for years. (And I still remember that long series you did on the Oklahoma City Bombing, Mike.) While I don’t often agree with him, he’s a serious, bona fide poster. I hope he stays.

@Wretchard

Do you think that Bush’s humanitarian relief gambit will introduce enough uncertainty into Russia’s calculations?

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:39 am 279. Konyok:

Cannoneer,
I can’t find any reference anywhere to “Aksaz Karagac,” except for the Russian sourced items about the Ladny.
Even the NGA geonet gazeteer doesn’t have that name. Hmmm …

Good source for lat/long coordinates:

http://earth-info.nga.mil/gns/html/index.html

use the text based query – the maps are unwieldy

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:40 am 280. buddy larsen:

That’s what Hitler said to France, while encircling their army in Spring 1940. It created “Vichy”. Which in turn created great Bogart flick ”Casablanca”.

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:41 am 281. JB:

“The USA must choose now between a partnership with Georgia, or a partnership with Russia”

We can be partners after they peacekeep their babushka.

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:41 am 282. Konyok:

Could the afternoon romps of the Russians be timed to occur after the close of the Russian stock market?

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:44 am 283. M. Simon:

If my guess is right, Putin and Co. will play a long game and use the intimidation factor to get concessions from other recently independent border states.

Nope. The intimidation factor only works with credible threats coupled with American weakness. What do the Russians want to do? Have a series of military disasters.

Freedom is never free.

“Russian foriegn ministry has just released this short statement: “The USA must choose now between a partnership with Georgia, or a partnership with Russia.”

That horse has already left the barn. It is the cry of the impotent man. “I can get it up, really. I just need a little more time. Please. Honey?”

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:46 am 284. Cannoneer No. 4:

Вы несут меня, товарищ

Easy choice.

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:47 am 285. Tarnsman:

Eggplant, what has changed since the bad ‘ol days of the Cold War when both sides had thousands of nuclear warheads pointed at one another. We’ve played this game before. This time around the “Soviet Union” is a tad smaller and has a new set of neighbors that remember all too well the “good old days”. Putin has only reminded them what the stakes are. He can now look forward to US/Nato bases in the Ukraine, the Baltic States, Georgia and elsewhere. President McCain will make sure of that.

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:49 am 286. Konyok:

Just plain old Aksaz is on the Mediterranean coast above Rhodes and does have a naval base.

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:49 am 287. cjm:

i would rather be partners with one tree in georgia, than all of russia.

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:51 am 288. neolex:

Meanwhile, Belorus’ has been quiet all along and has not offered Russia any support in the situation. When receiving a report about Russians being irked by this, Lukoshenko replied that Belorus’ wants to improve relations with all of it’s partners including US and EU. Quite shocking or maybe he’s just trying to get better gas price from Russia, showing his support costs $$$.

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:51 am 289. buddy larsen:

Cannoneer, that’s the one –the pipeline that ”Gazprom will not allow”.

Maybe that ”partner” bit by Russ ministry means ”Iran’s nuke” ?

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:52 am 290. dla:

Wretchard – I see that this site is being spammed (flooded with crap posts). Are other blogs suffering from similar attacks?

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:53 am 291. Cannoneer No. 4:

Konyok,

SW coast of Turkey, 15 km east of Marmaris.

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:54 am 292. S:

http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/253323/the_decline_of_the_american_empire

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:55 am 293. buddy larsen:

”Partner” is the word that Ivan always uses in reference to Russ/USA in the machinations re Iran nuke.

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:57 am 294. Konyok:

Interesting, then the Ladny is scheduled for bilateral exercises with the Italians.
Will the scheduled exercises take place?

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:57 am 295. Cannoneer No. 4:

Press Report Details Battle in the Black Sea

Aug 13, 2008 - 11:02 am 296. neolex:

Lets see what the forces amassed in the persian Gulf, for seemingly no good reason, do. I doubt that they will attack Iran when there is a danger of direct confrontation b/w Russia and US, but at this point any statement Russia makes about Iran is pointless and hollow. The entire time their strategy was to stall so that Iran would get the bomb.

Aug 13, 2008 - 11:04 am 297. 3Case:

Was at my local Paki gas station/convenience store last night. The topic of Georgia comes up. The guys behind the counter ask “What are the Russians thinking?!? Don’t they know what can happen to them, their troops?” These guys are from North of Islamabad and have family back there. I thought it an interesting thing for them to ask.

Aug 13, 2008 - 11:04 am 298. buddy larsen:

S, FWIW, Roubini is thought by many to be a strong backer of Obama, and his bear message part the Dem long march to demoralize the USA electorate re GOP leadership.

Aug 13, 2008 - 11:06 am 299. Dan:

FOX is reporting the first C-17 landed in Tbilisi, with another one scheduled shortly.

Aug 13, 2008 - 11:12 am 300. Cannoneer No. 4:

Ossetia’s effect: Trasniester breaks its ties with the Republic of Moldova

The unfolding war between Georgia and Russia creates tension in the region. Encouraged by Russia’s reaction facing South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Transniester officials declared that they cut off any ties with the Republic of Moldova.

Thus, the self-proclaimed republic issued a press release informing that local officials are extremely concerned that the Republic of Moldova failed to blame Georgia for its behavior, the Russian daily Vzgliad reads.

Aug 13, 2008 - 11:13 am 301. Triton'sPolarTiger:

Could this get even more interesting? Is Ivan actually dense enough to cross swords with us? Heckuva a tripwire, this humanitarian mission….

Aug 13, 2008 - 11:14 am 302. Cannoneer No. 4:

Count on a squad of Air Force Security Forces and a platoon of Arrival / Departure Airfield Control Group in amongst pallets of “humanitarian relief supplies.”

Aug 13, 2008 - 11:16 am 303. buddy larsen:

“Moskva” was part of the eastern Med deployment, i think, recently.

Aug 13, 2008 - 11:18 am 304. Cannoneer No. 4:

Any NOTAMs out for commercial air traffic over Turkey and Black Sea?

Pretty much everything flying in to Dubai and Kuwait City from Europe goes that way.

Aug 13, 2008 - 11:24 am 305. Cannoneer No. 4:

The cruiser was damaged and a small fire broke out aboard. Then, fearing for seaworthyness, the flagship withdrew from the firing area.” – the sailor said.

So the Moskva was apparently damaged in the attack and disengaged. She is certainly capable of destroying big ships, but the battle appears to highlight a weakness against small ships. The battle also tends to add credibility to what many have said, it is best to fight small ships at sea with small ships at sea. — Galrahn

Aug 13, 2008 - 11:26 am 306. voyeur:

Ukraine states that Russian ships need to give 10 days notice for a return to their Sebastopol base.

Given that most of Europe has been aware of ’something stirring’ in Russia for some time – Bear overflights, Arctic games, Gazprom games – a ’situation’ was inevitable sooner or later. Russia has no world support in this situation, and needs to be very confident of its plans beyond this point, if not, it will perhaps fold. It must be aware of the visceral hatred it can and has induced in former CCCP states, who have chosen EU/NATO because of this. There was no ‘encroachment’.

Aug 13, 2008 - 11:34 am 307. Cannoneer No. 4:

Kiev restricts movement of Russian fleet in Ukraine

Aug 13, 2008 - 11:35 am 308. neolex:

@voyeur

It’s actually 3 days and for crossing the border, not returning to base. They must also declare what they contain on board: weapons, crews, cargo, etc. Ships that are found to be carrying things that violate the law or were not declared can be refused entry into Ukrainian waters.

In other news, Dinamo Kiev (Ukraine) 4:1 Spartak Moskva (Russia).

Aug 13, 2008 - 11:39 am 309. Steynian 223 « Free Mark Steyn!:

[...] REPUBLIC of Georgia Cyber Attacks “Part Deux”; The war in the ether …. (mypetjawa, [...]

Aug 13, 2008 - 11:45 am 310. buddy larsen:

@voyeur: “a ’situation’ was inevitable sooner or later” –most likely, Georgia was in the crosshairs regardless of Kosovo. Now that our Turkish alliance is front & forward, “Kosovo” doesn’t seem like such a gross political error. Perhaps even, to the contrary. Speaking of Kosovo, notice the reversal of the American left, over the last few days? What was right then, is wrong now. Silly people, why on earth do we let them vote? –just kidding just kidding –

Aug 13, 2008 - 11:49 am 311. cjm:

more’s the truth said in jest

Aug 13, 2008 - 11:58 am 312. Steve Nelson:

Eggplant is your real name I presume? And who might these FSB folks be? Don’t you think FSB has better things to do than pick on Wretchard?

The Russians also claimed that Georgian cyberattacks began in Moscow last week before the real fighting escalated into war. Russia Today TV, Russia’s version of Al-Jazeera, claimed that they had suffered denial of service (DOS) attacks from IP addresses in Georgia. RTTV’s main page is back up, complete with embarassing photos of Saakashvili getting tackled by his bodyguards in Tblisi, and an interview with the previously unknown U.S. Socialist Workers or some other Socialist Party’s candidate for President of the United States, condemning U.S. meddling in Georgia. Pretty shoddy, as far as propaganda goes, maybe they should stick with Bosnia and Kosovo-style photos of pitiful Ossetian refugees.

This now seems to be a standard sort of thing in post-Soviet conflicts.

Aug 13, 2008 - 12:01 pm 313. sigintel:

The Ukrainian’s are really asking for it. Yushenko (sp) is challenging the Russian Navy to file reports on movement and cargo…is the Battle of Sevastopol next?

Aug 13, 2008 - 12:02 pm 314. S:

Buddy Larsen,

Roubini is probably the only sane (and heretofore correct) economist/analyst out there with regard to the current situation. He has been dead right and his analysis is based on facts, imagine that. The socializing is being done under the current WH. For evidence note the FNM FRE bailout, the Fed largess, stock market manipulation and bank protection. The US has structural economic issues that aren’t going away. Calling names and pretending it aint so is why we are where we are. Military mucularity has its place for sure, but you have to pay for it. Currently we are financed and owned by the Chinese and OPEC Sovereigns. These are facts. Not political, just facts.

Aug 13, 2008 - 12:03 pm 315. cjm:

how do our economic issues compare with russian and chinese economic issues? would you want to trade places with them? i thought so. next!

Aug 13, 2008 - 12:10 pm 316. DP:

I have to assume that all of the people that are claiming the US is powerless to do anything in this conflict have no idea what they are talking about. We already know that there are at least over 120 “advisors” in country. Typically, “advisors” is a code word for US Special Forces (Green Berets). Being that this is the European AO, these men would be from the 10th Special Forces Group, whose main preoccupation for the last 50 years has been to train European irregulars against Soviet forces.

It would not be difficult to provide Javelin anti-tank missiles or any other similar product (BAE/ Israeli mentioned) to the Georgians. In this kind of terrain and homefield advantage with the force multiplier of US ODA teams the Russian advance would be halted without much fuss on the Georgian part.

As for Russian air superiority I have one piece of hardwar. F-22s. These are the most advance stealth air craft. No one would have to know they are there. We don’t need overflight rights because they don’t show up on radar. Airfields are close enough in Turkey or even Northern Iraq. With the F-22’s supercruise ability they are highly flexible and responsive. The only thing the Russians would notice is that they’re planes are dropping from the sky without any reason. F-22s also can also carry bombs. A bunker buster in that supply tunnel in north SO would shut off Russian supplies. Air resupply for Russia is also not a factor as the F-22s would see to that. AWACS could be conducted inside Turkey, or just use the ODAs throughout the country as watchers.

America’s military is not spread thin. The air force is unemployed at the moment as is our navy. All we really need is a few SF and a handfull of F-22s and proper armaments for the Georgians.

I’d like to hear what others think of this OP plan.

Aug 13, 2008 - 12:11 pm 317. Captain Hate:

Speaking of Kosovo, notice the reversal of the American left, over the last few days? What was right then, is wrong now.

BDS causes memory loss; they think Bush lied to our NATO friends causing the bombing of the Serbs. Oh the humanity…

Aug 13, 2008 - 12:15 pm 318. Cannoneer No. 4:

U.S. soldiers in Tbilisi on standby for aid mission

Aug 13, 2008 - 12:18 pm 319. sigintel:

DP – your ops plan would certainly trigger a wider war. If it was combined with the Iranian Op that’s being fielded by the unemployed Navy (5 strike forces = 40 aircraft carrier)in the Persian Gulf, it all might be lost in the smoke as an attack on Iran IS an attack on Russia.

Aug 13, 2008 - 12:19 pm 320. Konyok:

Konyok’s reply to FM Lavrov of the Russian Federation:

On Nov. 6, 2001 my president told the world “You’re either with us or against us in the fight against terror.”
Even though the Russian Federation has itself been targeted by jihadi terrorists, its government has chosen to eschew true partnership with the United States in the Global War on Terror and has opportunistically strengthened its ties with states that sponsor terrorism.
Given the choice of partnership with Georgia, a nation that has stood with the United States in Afghanistan and Iraq, and Russia, a nation that has been an obstacle as often as a help, this peasant of the al Amriki tribe says: Drink more Georgian wine!!

Aug 13, 2008 - 12:21 pm 321. Dan:

Actually, that plans sounds very, well…. SOUND.

I had been toying with the idea of “air only” for a couple of days, but always brushed the thought aside, as surely we ALL know that “air alone won’t win the fight.”

But…

I couldn’t get the thought out of my mind that air is PRECISELY what this situation calls for. I think your post is spot on.

I like the idea of an American air presence (and who’s to say it’s not already there?), combined with re-supplied Georgian ground forces and American advisors.

I must say, I haven’t a clue as to the specifics, but the concept seems custom-made for this scenario. The Russians would be in serious, serious crap as long as they did anything but retreat.

Yes? No?

Aug 13, 2008 - 12:21 pm 322. Aether:

Captain Hate… USN aviator ?

Aug 13, 2008 - 12:25 pm 323. Captain Hate:

Nope, just a nic.

Aug 13, 2008 - 12:26 pm 324. cjm:

we smoked the iranians in ‘86 and russias didn’t say boo. and they won’t say boo this time, either. russia very helpfully provided all the political pressure necessary to justify an iranian episode. thanks vlad, couldn’t have done it without you.

it is starting to look like all the recently freed countries, and some of the western european countries, are willing to throw down with russia. they don’t scare anyone.

Aug 13, 2008 - 12:30 pm 325. someone:

“Russian foriegn ministry has just released this short statement: “The USA must choose now between a partnership with Georgia, or a partnership with Russia.”"

Oh, I think we’ve already chosen. Ball’s in their court.

Aug 13, 2008 - 12:30 pm 326. Eggplant:

Steve Nelson asked:

Eggplant is your real name I presume?

Yes, in this forum it is. Is Steve Nelson your real name?

And who might these FSB folks be?

ФСБ, Федера́льная слу́жба безопа́сности

Don’t you think FSB has better things to do than pick on Wretchard?

I have to confess to being very biased about Wretchard. In my humble opinion, Wretchard maybe the brighest guy on the web (yes I know the competition is pretty tough). Picking on Wrethard shows good judgement.

Aug 13, 2008 - 12:31 pm 327. Lugh Lampfhota:

Russian “reporter” at Rice news conference uses question to disseminate Russian propaganda by comparing US post 9/11 operations to current Russian operations in Georgia. The Russians even use an administration press conference as a propaganda opportunity! Rice shut him down pretty quick with some tone but that was way over the line.

Aug 13, 2008 - 12:31 pm 328. S:

cjm – masterful analysis, value is in future cash flows not past success – econ 101.

Aug 13, 2008 - 12:31 pm 329. voyeur:

“The USA must choose now between a partnership with Georgia, or a partnership with Russia.”

How silver-sweet sound lovers’ tongues by night,
Like softest music to attending ears!

Aug 13, 2008 - 12:34 pm 330. Konyok:

Strictly speaking, FSB is the internal law enforcement/intelligence organ of the Russian Ministry of the Interior. Foreign disinformation campaigns would be conducted by the SVR (Sluzhba Vneshney Razvedki – foreign intelligence service), or, more likely, by GRU military intelligence, which survived intact the fall of the Soviet Union.
It is very unlikely that FSB targets Wretchard. It is a near certainty that SVR or GRU do.

Aug 13, 2008 - 12:43 pm 331. Michael McNeil:

Lifeofthemind said:
Fallout of this should include the Ukraine expelling the Russians from Sevastapol. Why give them another warm water port on the Black Sea? Better to scrub them from the Black Sea. We can make it a catch phrase to ask why are any Russians South of Rostov?

What influence Ukraine manages to assert to expel the Russians from Sevastopol and the rest of the Crimean peninsula and the Ukrainian coast, that could have no effect on the situation where the Russian Federation itself possesses the entirety of the northeastern Black Sea coastline, and if need be could construct its own Black Sea port entirely on Russian territory.

Aug 13, 2008 - 12:44 pm 332. Cannoneer No. 4:

As Russian troops fall back, watch out for the ‘irregulars’

Aug 13, 2008 - 12:51 pm 333. DP:

sigintel,

I don’t see how it would trigger a wider war. The Iran question is still that, just a question. I’ve read reports that claim that the Reagan and Eisenhower are resting comfortably in their ports, but that just maybe disinfo. As to my OP plan: its already known that there are US advisors in country. The armaments for the Georgians don’t have to be US made. And there is no way to prove that US air cover is involved unless they manage to down a F-22, which is extremely remote. Therefore there is no obvious increase in US involvement.

Aug 13, 2008 - 12:53 pm 334. buddy larsen:

S, i didn’t call any names, scroll up & see. When you link such an article, you should expect someone to point out that an awful lot of ”American decline” ink is coming from one side of the political spectrum. That’s really about all i did. On the other hand, this of yours is much closer to name-calling: “Currently we are financed and owned by the Chinese and OPEC Sovereigns. These are facts. Not political, just facts.”

Oh? We are ”owned” by Chinese and OPEC purchasers of our treasury bonds at our open auctions? This isn’t a political opinion?

How about “Indirect purchasers in our treasury auctions are investing in the USA, and doing so in return for very low rates of return, because they think it is a good investment.” How about that –political?

Anyhoo, check the numbers –and please, use percentages, to get the reality of the ratio into it (decontexted numbers make good political statements, but mean nothing without the other ends of the ratio) –the big players holds lots of each other’s debt –yes USA has a good chunk foreign outstanding, but Britain and Japan hold about the same as China, and the sovereigns –recycled petrodollars –are quite welcome investments, and are far too small to influence –else you’d have Barney Frank holding hearings on it, instead of whispering the occasional aside in his political moments. We sell a bond, pay 4 or 5% on it, and create economic growth off the spread.

“Finance” is what keeps you from having to live with ma & pa until you’re 50 and have saved several hundred grand to buy a house.

Not to be contentious, but ”we’re doomed” politics flows from political exploitation of a decline at the margins of USA financial health. We can fix these things –they result from crappy policy out of DC, not some sort of terminal national disease.

The meta theme is a world catching up with us, via use of the free-market capitalist system we’ve been trying to sell since 1776. This is what we wanted, remember –a world without famine, a world of free people engaging in mutually beneficial trade, under the rule of law. We’ve been astoundingly successful, look at the number of democracies now and say 1945.

In 1945 we had what, half the world’s GDP and now we have a quarter of it, despite having grown by orders of magnitude ourselves, and this is supposed to be, as Roubini says, ”the end of the American Empire”? Forgive me, but phhhttt –who cares how doomsayers define ”empire”? Want some economists who feel otherwise? Just say the word, I’ll send you some names. Or, watch the Kudlow show –or jim Cramer –on CNBC this afternoon. You’ll feel better –i promise.

Aug 13, 2008 - 12:53 pm 335. nichevo:

Evidently the great thing is to lie to them right in their faces.

So sure, we want to partner with you; just ignore all these LCACs and their 70 ton payloads;

that isn’t an Apache, it just looks like one;

Georgian spies must have stolen our blueprints for bunker-busters, which is too bad because we keep the plans for a devilish tac nuke in the same drawer;

how silly of you, having all your soldiers lie down and spread themselves with strawberry jam!;

the Iranians say we bombed the crap out of them? You know you can’t believe those matyeryebyets, they don’t even speak Russian;

No, no, it’s raining, we’re not pissing on you, don’t be silly, partner. Here, look into my eyes and see my soul, then you’ll feel better.

Partners? Is there a Russian contingent in Iraq I forgot about? Sookin sin.

No, srsly, the future does kinda require us to deal with Russia one way or the other. But after the first croc-feeding, who else do we not partner with? Ukraine? France? Britain?

The question is back, who do you want to partner with: the US or South Ossetia? Or the US, China, or Islam?

Extra credit question: which of these doesn’t really really want to kill you and drink your blood?

Final question: How will your foreign ministry people eat after you fire all their asses?

You know, Russia, you have virtues, I’d like to be pals, but somebody’s got to slap some sense into you!

Aug 13, 2008 - 1:01 pm 336. cjm:

S doesn’t want to feel better. his oil revenues just droped 33% in 2 weeks and look out below. just another gut worm.

buddy: excellent post; i like your style

Aug 13, 2008 - 1:02 pm 337. Lugh Lampfhota:

Now Fox has an Ossetian-American “family” shilling for the Russian “peacekeepers” using blatant propaganda. Their story is that the Georgians started shelling Ossetia for no reason. Out of nowhere. Boom.

When the the 12 year old was asked if she saw or heard explosions, she replied “no but that Georgian soldiers were killing Ossetians”. Mom says Georgian President must resign since they burned her house. Her house in South Ossetia! But she lives in San Francisco. WTF?

What are these people doing in America? Go home.

Aug 13, 2008 - 1:02 pm 338. nichevo:

PS Konyok, Ararat is Georgian, right? Georgian brandy? Not bad stuff.

Aug 13, 2008 - 1:05 pm 339. Fortinbras :: Belmont Club � The war in the ether :: August :: 2008:

[...] Belmont Club � The war in the ether [...]

Aug 13, 2008 - 1:08 pm 340. Konyok:

You bet your yarbles, nichevo!
Drink more Georgian wine!!

Aug 13, 2008 - 1:12 pm 341. Konyok:

Well said, buddy larsen. You rebuted the “decline” piece of that meme. I still object to the “American Empire” bit. Being old school, I still believe that words actually mean things. I could almost buy “American Hegemony,” and I’d even say that it’s a good thing. But, “American Imperialism” has got to be the most benign social force in human history. How many Mossadeghs are needed to balance just one tsunami relief operation?

Aug 13, 2008 - 1:17 pm 342. exhelodrvr:

DP,
The F-22s are not “invisible to radar”. They have a much smaller signature, but are not invisible. There are also other methods of tracking them – infrared, for instance, and visually. And the Russians would be waiting for them, especially after the first attack. If they are carrying bunker busters, that would limit their air-to-air capability and their range. And the tankers aren’t “stealthy” – the Russians could track those to get an idea where the F-22s were coming from/going. Flying from bases in Iraq/Turkey is all well and good, but get those nations involved in the conflict, which (very likely) neither wants to be at this point. And, of course, then the airfields they fly from would be “valid” targets for Russian attacks. So a handful of F-22s would not turn the tide. What that would do would cause an escalation.

Aug 13, 2008 - 1:20 pm 343. Cannoneer No. 4:

Air Force suspends Cyber Command program

Just when we need it most.

Aug 13, 2008 - 1:22 pm 344. Triton'sPolarTiger:

@cjm

Buddy used to post regularly around here, then took some time out as I understand things – it’s nice to see him back in force, for precisely the reason you noted.

Welcome Home, Brother Larsen

Aug 13, 2008 - 1:28 pm 345. Eggplant:

Konyok said:

“Strictly speaking, FSB is the internal law enforcement/intelligence organ of the Russian Ministry of the Interior. Foreign disinformation campaigns would be conducted by the SVR (Sluzhba Vneshney Razvedki – foreign intelligence service), or, more likely, by GRU military intelligence, which survived intact the fall of the Soviet Union. It is very unlikely that FSB targets Wretchard. It is a near certainty that SVR or GRU do.”

Thank you. I stand corrected.

Aug 13, 2008 - 1:32 pm 346. NahnCee:

I’m loving the different Pravda responses I’m reading here and there around the internet. They do *not* sound like the measured and steady words of a victor. They *do* sound like the spittle-flecked hysteria of a KosKid in the midst of a virulent BDS attack.

It’s also fun trying to determine who the KGB-niks are who are posting here. Like, is Steve Nelson a Yank, a know-nothing Brit, or an Ivan. And if he’s a Yank, does he have any relatives named Lee Harvey.

Watching the Russians perform both in battle and here and elsewhere on the internet, it beggars belief that they aspire to be world-class at ANYthing. Whatta buncha rubes.

(Anyone besides me wonder how quickly the acclaimed Russian ground troops would have raced forward if they were facing American Marines?)

Aug 13, 2008 - 1:38 pm 347. Cannoneer No. 4:

Russia lost the Georgian war

Aug 13, 2008 - 1:40 pm 348. buddy larsen:

Hey, Triton –long time no see –yes, M. Simon (who BTW has a major Instapundit link right now) said the same yesterday –old Belmont posters suddenly back on this site. heh –wonder why –

Aug 13, 2008 - 1:40 pm 349. cjm:

that’s why whiskey’s constant noise about their “amazing battle tempo” is so misplaced. thankfully the nurses made him let someone else have a turn with the tv room computer.

Aug 13, 2008 - 1:51 pm 350. buddy larsen:

@Konyok: “But, “American Imperialism” has got to be the most benign social force in human history. How many Mossadeghs are needed to balance just one tsunami relief operation?” –yessir –perspective, context, weights & balances, all great things for truth!

Aug 13, 2008 - 1:52 pm 351. Captain Hate:

buddy: excellent post; i like your style

Buddy’s skooled lotsa noobs at Roger Simon’s blog on matters in the wonderful world of finance. I watch in stunned amazement at the depth of knowledge and nearly infinite patience.

Aug 13, 2008 - 1:55 pm 352. Dan:

Cannoneer:

Can’t say I disagree with anything in that link, except perhaps the title. It’s still early.

But thanks.

Aug 13, 2008 - 1:56 pm 353. Yosemite Sam:

Aug 13, 2008 - 2:00 pm 354. Eggplant:

NahnCee asked:

“Anyone besides me wonder how quickly the acclaimed Russian ground troops would have raced forward if they were facing American Marines?”

That’s a tough question. How much time is left in the Universe before all the stars die out and everything collapses into entropy noise? I don’t think I know the answer. Maybe we should reformulate the question?

Anyone besides me wonder how quickly the acclaimed Russian ground troops would have run away if they were facing American Marines?

Aug 13, 2008 - 2:02 pm 355. Cannoneer No. 4:

Much like in the attacks against Estonia, several Russian blogs, forums, and websites are spreading a Microsoft Windows batch script that is designed to attack Georgian websites. Basically people are taking matters into their own hands and asking others to join in by continually sending ICMP traffic via the ‘ping’ command to several Georgian websites, of which the vast majority are government.

Plausibly deniable CNA by RBN mercenaries and patriotic Russian netizens.

Why can’t Americans do this?

Georgian Attacks: Remember Estonia?

Aug 13, 2008 - 2:03 pm 356. NahnCee:

Eggplant: !!!

Aug 13, 2008 - 2:06 pm 357. Dan:

Related to Cannoneer’s link, above, is “Paul Goble’s Window on Eurasia.”

I can’t say I agree with all of it, but it does offer some fascinating insight, especially as to how this all (may have) started. It certainly seems to fill in a few blanks.

http://georgiandaily.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=5827&Itemid=65

Aug 13, 2008 - 2:08 pm 358. Cannoneer No. 4:

Dan, I think the PSYOP campaign is going against Ivan.

The AP’s use of Georgian stringers has much the same force multiplier effect for Georgia as their use of Iraqi stringers had for the insurgents there.

Aug 13, 2008 - 2:08 pm 359. someone:

There’s a new thread, folks. This one’s getting pretty long.

Aug 13, 2008 - 2:08 pm 360. DP:

exhelodrv,

Obviously the fighters would have certain strike packages, mostly air superiorty, only one would require the bunker buster to shut down the tunnel. Why would you assume they’d all be carrying such ordance? F-22 radar signature has been compared to… the size of a bee? Given the beyond the horizon ability of the F-22 to engage targets, the Russian sukois and migs wouldn’t stand a chance.

As for bases in Iraq, fighters take off and land all the time, are they fighting insurgents or downing russian migs, who knows….. Russians tracking where they are coming or going, yeah, they’re coming from the South, what is that going to prove? I have no confidence in Russian made radar or air defense. Look to Gulf War I, OIF, and the recent Israeli air strikes in Syria. Its only what you can prove not what you can claim. Without a wrecked F-22, its just Russian propaganda.

Aug 13, 2008 - 2:10 pm 361. Kingston53:

The Bush plan is a “best of all possible worlds”. The Russians created the opening when they agreed to a ceasefire and affirmed their intentions where merely to protect the South Osettians. The US humanitarian “forces” provide a buffer to stop any futher advances. The fact that the humaitarian aid is being provided by the USAF and USN can be explained without characterizing it as a threat since this was how we provided aid for the tsunami victims. Everyone knows what is going on without having to spell it out.

Aug 13, 2008 - 2:14 pm 362. OldSalt:

WSJ “Welcome Back
To the Great Game”

We are at work because our enemies want us to be at war, and they believe that they can win, and achieve their goals.

Wars are fought only because deterrence fails. Everything that the USA has done diplomatically since at least 1989 – is a failure. Where’s the accountability at State, the CIA, and DoD in general? There certainly needs to be political accountability. Having “won” the cold war, America’s feckless politicians have let the Bear out of the bag again. They (Congress) did not adequately fund our military services, nor project a sufficiently serious beating on foreign policy. Instead, but the right and the left played local pork barrel politics, and only paid any scant attention to foreign policy and the Iraq war when the opportunity to skewer a political opponent presented itself. The Democrats, in particular, made political hey out of every American body bag, hoping for more and more to aid their anti-war-driven election prospects. NO WHERE HAVE THE DEMOCRATS done anything, NOT ONE DAMN THING in the last sixteen years to make America safer from our foreign adversaries.

I am saddened. I am in rough contact with two to three dozen Marines vicariously via my kids (we always seem to have a couple of them sleeping on couches or the floor downstairs). I have served my country in peace time and other times, and the one single thought I had during my career was “If we screw this up, our kids will be in Uniform fixing our mess”. These kids are all terrific, some on their second or third combat tours, and they as volunteers are becoming the next “greatest generation”. The 60’s/70’s narcissistic “me” generation, the “Clinton” generation, have in effect put their own pedantic hedonistic pursuits over the security and welfare of their own kids.

So, the “grand game” begins again. Just great.

Aug 13, 2008 - 2:15 pm 363. Konyok:

Eggplant,
Forgive me if I sounded criticial, or, egads, pedantic.
It’s just that the FSB usage here has gotten universal and I think that we need to name our enemies precisely.
GRU is a monstrous and evil organization that slinked its way through the fall of the Soviet Union because it had no domestic enemies except the KGB. This viper resonates perfectly with native Russian xenophobia and naturally forms itself around the hand of its new master – Volodya Putin.

Aug 13, 2008 - 2:15 pm 364. OldSalt:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121858681748935101.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries

Aug 13, 2008 - 2:15 pm 365. buddy larsen:

Remember Vilnius?

also, Belmont reg M. Simon and an Insta-Poll on ‘who won?’ (not same link as Cannoneer’s above)

(Captain Hate –thanks –any nice word from a Captain of Hate is truly a nice word indeed!)

Aug 13, 2008 - 2:16 pm 366. Jim,MtnViewCA,USA:

“…Russia will likely lose G8 and OSCE memberships for quite some time..”
Or will the Euros cut ties with the US and drift closer to Russia? Are any Euro countries stepping back from the the naval exercise, for example?

Aug 13, 2008 - 2:45 pm 367. buddy larsen:

Old Salt, mind if i make a hyperlink for your link –it’s short & sweet & right between the eyes, and really, a must-read.

Aug 13, 2008 - 3:05 pm 368. exhelodrvr:

DP,
“are they fighting insurgents or downing russian migs, who knows….. Russians tracking where they are coming or going, yeah, they’re coming from the South, what is that going to prove?”

You don’t think the Russian monitor flight activity, know exactly where the various squadrons are based out of, and have people monitoring and reporting? I guarantee they do. They know a lot more about us than we do about them. And shutting down the tunnel at this point doesn’t stop anything, just makes it a little harder for them. The Russians can resupply by sea or air.

As far as no proof that it was the U.S., you’re wrong there, too. Missiles and bombs also leave evidence.

Aug 13, 2008 - 3:25 pm 369. Eggplant:

Konyok said:

“Eggplant, Forgive me if I sounded criticial, or, egads, pedantic.”

Not a problem. I welcome correction or constructive criticism.

Konyok also said:

“It’s just that the FSB usage here has gotten universal and I think that we need to name our enemies precisely. GRU is a monstrous and evil organization that slinked its way through the fall of the Soviet Union because it had no domestic enemies except the KGB.”

I remember reading about the GRU from the writings of Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn (may he rest in peace). However I’ve never done any real study of the organization. The following wikipedia article is of interest (I’m amused that the GRU uses the bat as their emblem):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GRU

Aug 13, 2008 - 3:37 pm 370. honestjoe:

“1. What role did information warfare play in the Russia-Georgia war?”

Obviously the strategic role of influencing both U.S. public opinion and world opinion.

“Think of the press as a great keyboard on which the government can play.”
Joseph Goebbels

“2. Were there any signs of info war preparation?”

Yes many, but it was happening LONG before what has been discussed here. For starters the CIA “did” know about the buildup and the Russian response was not only anticipated but hoped for so as to archive “TWO” goals.

#1 Giving us a chance to conduct our own information war to use this (expected) Russian reaction as an opportunity to keep the public focused on the rabid Bears brutality.

#2 Keeping the bear(and the public)busy while alerting (swaying) public opinion about the dangers the west faces so we can deal with Iran.

“3. What were the major disinformation campaigns on each side?”

Russia denying that they were not only prepared for but eagerly anticipating (provoked)the attack by Georgia.

America claiming ignorance of any foreknowledge that Georgia was about to launch a large attack into South Ossetia.

Georgia claiming that they were “only” retaliating against South Ossetian separatists and had not planned it nor planned an attack attack against Abkhazia.

short 1:32 second example of propaganda. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ak59OjKPpA0&feature=related

“4. Were attacks on the .ge domains effective? What were the lessons carried over from the previous cyberattack experience in the Baltics?”

No because their sorry propaganda attempt of cutting off information and disinformation is nothing compared to our vastly superior well organized and massive propaganda machine.

The worlds largest and most sophisticated propaganda campaign is aimed at deliberately misleading the American public.

Eight thousand pages of documents related to the Pentagon’s illegal propaganda campaign, known as the Pentagon military analyst program, are now online for the world to see! http://www.dod.mil/pubs/foi/milanalysts/ The most interesting and revealing of them previously secret and only available to the Pentagon and the New York Times.

Perhaps the most startling aspect of the road map is its acknowledgment that information put out as part of the Pentagon’s psychological operations, or Psyops, is finding its way onto the computer and television screens of ordinary Americans.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4655196.stm

Pentagon Will “Catapult the Propaganda” Via U.S. Media Military, government indoctrination wing formally declares psychological warfare on the American people.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/6100906.stm

The U.S. will engage in propaganda and indoctrination by using the Internet and media to “catapult the propaganda,”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/blog/2005/05/25/BL2005052501250.html

Lou Dobbs show
DOBBS: Roger, let me turn to one journalism question for all of you. As you know, the Washington Post reporting that the Pentagon used a number of—well, sources, if you will, for misinformation campaigns, including this network. What is your sense as to what should be both the reaction of the media, to being used by—for psyops operations by the Pentagon and what should be the reaction of the American people?
http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0412/03/ldt.01.html

Pentagon propaganda bureau, Psychological Operations Command (PSYOPS), had placed their operatives in news divisions around the U.S.!
http://www.fair.org/activism/osi-propaganda.html

FAIR speculated that the purpose was twofold, one to directly propagandize the American people via CNN and also potentially to allow the “military to conduct an intelligence-gathering mission against the network itself,”
http://www.fair.org/index.php?page=1748

The Information Operations Roadmap will take the propaganda to the computer and television screens of Americans.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/27_01_06_psyops.pdf

JSOU report states “Hiring a block of bloggers to verbally attack a specific person or promote a specific message may be worth considering.” “Hacking the site and subtly changing the messages and data—merely a few words or phrases—may be sufficient to begin destroying the blogger’s credibility with the audience.” Words and phrases such as the label Conspiracy theory, read page 35.
https://jsoupublic.socom.mil/publications/jsou/JSO

One of the complicit news agencies exposes the Pentagon’s propaganda program but fails to mention their own “documented” support of the very same propaganda program: The New York Times reports about the Pentagon’s Hidden Hand http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/20/washington/20generals.html

In October 2005 Government Accountability Office investigators concluded that the Bush administration’s secret policy to pay off influential journalists to plant fake news was illegal and that the “administration had disseminated “covert propaganda” in the United States, in violation of a statutory ban.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/01/politics/01educ.html?ex=1285819200&en=55a295038c3630e7&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

Pentagons Office of Strategic Influence, was in operation before 9/11 and exploited legal loopholes by planting its propaganda in foreign newspapers like the BBC that would later be picked up by U.S. news wires.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/1830500.stm

Paid by the administration eSapience promises to “leverage our relationships with important and highly credible channels including AEI, AEI-Brookings, Hoover Institution, MIT, University of Chicago Law School and the Federalist Society, among others.
http://dockets.justia.com/docket/court-madce/case_no-1:2007cv10455/case_id-108190/

A company that was paid to misdirect and/or change the very CONVERSATIONS that our leaders are having! Also to create a favorable story or block media attention from story’s that can be damaging to their neo-CON goals.
http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?i=w070312&s=risen031607

They billed someone for “paying off” (or getting a favorable story from) a NYT reporter! But It didn’t stop there as the Washington Post reports:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/03/09/AR2007030901150.html

$300 million for lies and propaganda to be feed to the American people.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/06/10/AR2005061001910.html

Burson-Marsteller‘s BKSH & Assocs., has been hired by The Lincoln Group, one of three firms selected last month by the U.S. Special Operations Command to wage psychological warfare on behalf of the Pentagon.
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Burson-Marsteller
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=BKSH_&_Associates
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Lincoln_Group

Col. James Treadwell, director of the Joint Psychological Operations Support Element, said TLG was selected to develop ‘cutting-edge types of media,’ including radio/TV ads, documentaries, text messages, Internet spots and podcasts for the U.S. military. The Pentagon expects to spend $3M in the first-year as a ‘test,’ and could spend up to $300M over five years if the ‘psyops’ operations conducted by TLG, SYColeman and Science Applications International Corp are deemed successful.”
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=SYColeman

A program on behalf of CENTCOM is also underway to help “catapult the propaganda,” on blogs and message boards.
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines05/1130-07.htm

CIA enlists Google’s help for spy work.
http://technology.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/tech_

Google and the CIA are involved with one another and are censoring information.
http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=4774

This isn’t the first time the search giant has been suspected of wrongdoing.
http://googlewatch.eweek.com/blogs/google_watch/search.aspx?q=Is+Google+a+Government+Spook?&p=1

most claims of Google censorship involve the search engine being censored.
http://googlewatch.eweek.com/blogs/google_watch/archive/2006/06/30/11186.aspx

A former clandestine services officer for the CIA who also maintains close relationships with top Google representatives says that the company is “in bed with” the intelligence agency and the U.S. government.
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20061030-8105.html

The Google help page used to state that it did not censor search results. This policy has now changed and Google now carried that proviso that, “in response to local laws, regulations, or policies,” it may censor certain content.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2006/01/27/google_doesnt_censor/

Google’s censorship policies in China and even those directed against US websites that are mildly critical of China prove that the company that was founded on the principle “don’t be evil,” is slowly beginning to resemble the very controlling Big Brother image it claimed to despise.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/4645596.stm

Americas News Media Worked Hand in Glove with the Central Intelligence Agency
http://tmh.floonet.net/articles/cia_press.html

In the annual Worldwide Press Freedom Index the U.S. ranked 53rd which is bellow several dictatorships. The U.S. press is controlled as a tool for the dissemination of propaganda.
http://www.rsf.org/rubrique.php3?id_rubrique=639

“The Central Intelligence Agency owns everyone of any significance in the major media.” ~ William Colby, Former Director, CIA

So let the Russian bear rise its ugly propaganda head for we will cut it off and mount it on histories wall of failures.

Aug 13, 2008 - 4:27 pm 371. oecumena:

Oops… http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20080813-georgian-attacks-might-not-be-russians-after-all.html

`According to Gadi Evron, former Chief information security officer (CISO) for the Israeli government’s ISP, there’s compelling historical evidence to suggest that the Russian military is not involved.’

Aug 14, 2008 - 2:24 am 372. weSwinger:

STEVEAZ: if you’re still on thread, we need to compare notes re: the State of AZ.

Aug 14, 2008 - 8:47 am

Sorry, comments for this entry are closed at this time.