215 Comments

1. DanM:

Or, the wonders of Capitalism’s un-biased judgement brought pressure to bear.

Maybe the aid behind Putin whispered that there was a message from his “backers” that he should read right away……

Aug 12, 2008 - 4:23 am 2. vitoc:

This is very good news.

I hope everyone can get their attention back to a more important issue now: Iran.

I strongly suspect that these two stories are linked anyone, and that the wish of someone disrupting possible plans to attack Iran may have played a role in the decision to invade Georgia. Exactly how these two stories are linked we may not know for certain for a long time to come, though.

I’d suggest to watch what these Israelis who are currently in Georgia will be doing the next days and weeks.

Aug 12, 2008 - 4:35 am 3. wretchard:

I think we should wait a few days for the backstory to leak out. What threats were exchanged; what losses were endured. What happened behind the scenes. Gradually the picture will become more complete.

Aug 12, 2008 - 4:37 am 4. DanM:

I shouldn’t try to type/spell before my first cup of coffee…

Aug 12, 2008 - 4:39 am 5. wretchard:

The Associated Press writes:

WASHINGTON (AP) — With a crisis of Cold War proportions brewing, President Bush demanded that Russia withdraw its troops from the former Soviet republic of Georgia.

Hours later, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev ordered a halt to the military action, saying it had brought security for civilians and Russian peacekeepers in the breakaway South Ossetia region.

Aug 12, 2008 - 4:43 am 6. Mrs. Davis:

The real action will begin now as the EUropeans decide whether they want to rearm or kow-tow to the Bear when the gas is cut off. The Georgians have to decide how to continue their struggle. The US and Iraq have to decide what to do with all the Iranian built EFPs they have seized. The Russians have to consider how much they really wanted to affect the US election outcome. The Chinese have to figure out how to thank the Russians for making the Olympics so memorable. And Dinnerjacket needs to figure out how to get back in the headlines.

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:02 am 7. Evil Pundit:

What demands will the Russians make?

“We can discuss the question of a definitive settlement if two conditions are met,” Medvedev said before meeting French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

“First, Georgian troops should return to their initial position and be partly demilitarised. Second, we need to sign a binding agreement on non-use of force.”

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:03 am 8. Cannoneer No. 4:

The Role of Oil in the Georgian Conflict…
Oil, it seems, is one issue at the heart of the violent conflict between Russia and Georgia. In striking its neighbor hard in the ostensible tussle to control the breakaway Georgian province of South Ossetia, Moscow is signaling that it won’t give up control of the oil-rich Caspian region, the Financial Times reports. “Georgia has scant energy resources of its own but hosts pipelines built by international oil majors to carry Caspian oil and gas to western markets,” the newspaper writes. “The so-called east-west energy corridor across Azerbaijan and Georgia to Turkey, established with strong political backing from the U.S., has eroded Russia’s stranglehold over energy exports from one of the world’s few remaining untapped oil provinces.” Analysts tell BusinessWeek that Moscow must walk a fine line between cementing its dominance of European energy supplies and not spooking Europeans into backing the construction of yet more non-Russian pipelines, but that any expansion of European or U.S. influence is unlikely since no Caspian leader will want to put his survival on the line by embracing a new Western project. Chris Ruppel, an energy analyst at Greenwich brokerage Execution, tells the magazine, “Russia has demonstrated that its military is a force to reckon with, that it can defeat a Western-trained force, and that the West and NATO will not act to intervene.”

It remains to be seen whether Europe is wholly without influence. This morning, just before French President Nicolas Sarkozy arrived at the Kremlin to negotiate a European Union-backed truce, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev took to the airwaves to announce that Russia would end its current military operation against Georgian forces because it has achieved its goals, as The Wall Street Journal reports. But Mr. Medvedev stopped short of saying Russia would withdraw its troops from Georgia, and even as his comments were broadcast, Agence France-Presse cited a Georgian official as saying the Russian air force had attacked the key Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan pipeline. “We don’t know yet whether it was damaged. It’s a second attempt to bomb this pipeline since Aug. 10,” Alexander Lomaia, secretary of Georgia’s National Security Council, told AFP.

The Role of Oil in the Georgian Conflict…

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:07 am 9. Cannoneer No. 4:

Have the Soviets no precision guided munitions with which to actually hit the pipe line?

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:09 am 10. wretchard:

“Russia has demonstrated that its military is a force to reckon with, that it can defeat a Western-trained force, and that the West and NATO will not act to intervene.”

Has Russia in fact demonstrated that? It wasn’t the Georgian Army that stopped the Russians.

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:10 am 11. TmjUtah:

The Russian president has announced an end to the operation.

Where’s the coverage of the withdrawal? Will the Motorized troops remain in Ossetia as more “peace keepers”? Which way will the media spin this?

I agree with Wretchard. This needs a lot more light.

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:15 am 12. Evil Pundit:

Have the Soviets no precision guided munitions with which to actually hit the pipe line?

That’s a question which bothers me, too. Are they saving those weapons for something else?

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:16 am 13. Kingston53:

I believe the presidents of Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania and Estonia are in Georgia now to express their support. Where is the American, British, French, Italian and German contingents? If the west were to set up camp in Georgia the free contries of the world could effectively block the Russian aggression. Take the momentum away from Russian by making this an assumptive post conflict international effort to aid the victims of a Russian over reaction. Start the humanitarian airlift. Bring in the celebrities. Start the concerts.

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:19 am 14. CPT. Charles:

Now comes the spin cycle: the ever-helpful WaPo has aired Gorbachev’s ‘opinion’ on a “A Path to Peace in the Caucasus”. It will be educational to see who’s lending Putin a hand in gluing the Smiley Face back on the Bear.

The facts that led Georgia act as it did will be buried by the MSM; hopefully the New Media can keep the truth alive.

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:23 am 15. CPT. Charles:

Evil Pundit: why hit the pipeline when you can sit on it…and direct it’s profits into your coffers.

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:29 am 16. Cannoneer No. 4:

“The main legend of Georgia is that Georgians are warriors because they are subject to constant invasion,” said Anna Lagidze, an educational psychologist in Tbilisi. A legend going back a thousand years, she explained, is that the men went into battle with grapevines tied around their waists so that if they died, new grapes would spring up where they fell.

Irregulars and volunteers fighting in Abkhazia in the early 1990s only added to the modern myth. “Many of them now think it is the last chance to defend their homeland,” Ms. Lagidze said. “It comes from the knowledge that the army is not enough and every man is valuable.”

In Georgia, a Code of Honor Lures Young Men to the Fighting, With No Military Training

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:33 am 17. Joe Buzz:

..”Calls a halt” to the “peacekeeping”. Darn good thing too, we would not want that peace to follow the Georgians all the way to the Turkish border. Vladi Poot and his Dmi Med sure have mad peace keeping skills and awesome timing.

Note to war gaming self: Start invasion and or peace keeping during Olympic games or World Cup.

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:36 am 18. Plastic Snoopy:

Were the Russians ever in Gori yesterday? Or Poti for that matter?

Are they there now? What of the blockade?

Was the Georgian government making things seem worse than they actually were in their public announcements? Was this an intentional policy — a bid to get aid?

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:38 am 19. Richard Fernandez:

See my update above. The Russians are making noises about “pending a full settlement” and appear to have added a demand for the “partial demilitarization” of the Georgian Army. Plus the Guardian reports there is still fighting despite the announcement of a halt. We should wait to see what Moscow really means by these terms.

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:47 am 20. M. Simon:

The Russian forces are overextended. Any one who has read Heart’s analysis of 1908 in “Strategy” knows it. There will be some face saving agreement where Russia removes all its forces from Georgia and the Georgians sign some kind of mutual non-aggression pact. The “outlaws” in Osetia will be condemned and it will be open season on them.

Look at what happened: 1000+ US soldiers defeated an army of 30K to 40K, with the Georgian Army taking minimal casualties and the US none.

Putin will be denounced in his own circles for adventurism.

Why won’t the US show up in Georgia? No need to rub the Russian’s nose in it further. It is just business.

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:48 am 21. RAH:

This action of Russia indicates two things. They have taken severe losses of personnel and the cost of attacking the defensive position of the Georgian defending the road to Tbilisi is high.

The second cost is the international pressure and the indication that the US would act. I read Bush’s statement with the word “must ” emphasized. Bush left China and was putting together action plans. I still want to know what assets were moved to the Med and the Straits and the German minister was now talking that Georgia and Ukraine ought to reapply to NATO. Taking Tbilisi today was too risky with Estonia, Latvia ministers going to Tbilisi, so the Russian stand down in place.

Georgia has won the world PR war, but Russian has done severe damage to the port city of Poti and occupies the country. Russia has not indicated they will withdraw. Until the actually do so the Georgian should stay strong in defense and fight if the Russian move forward.

Russian can easily use a cease fire to move ahead and scream the Georgia has violated if the defend their position I have heard that Russian is still taking out communication towers and cell towers. So Russian forces are still active but halted the offensive land drive. Russian will claim the victory but Georgians must not stand down until a withdrawal

Russia demands that Georgia be demilitarized must be refused. They have every reason to increase their ability to defend their territory. Also Russia is calling for Saakashvili to be removed.

Russia also tried to bomb the BCZ pipeline again.

Georgia must keep all defensive position and not be suckered out with the Russia ploy on the world’s stage. Russia is now going to try to consolidate gains and win the PR war with allege Georgian atrocities in the shelling of S. Ossetia.

Georgia gained breathing room only at this point.

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:49 am 22. DanM:

Air cover.. At least we need to provide air cover.

And a few observers, like a battalion of Special Forces to monitor the withdrawal or lack thereof. I am poorly informed of the makeup of the Russian incursion. Anyone have a reasonably reliable source on the Russian troop movements?

Now comes the spin. How can the U.S. make up for our lack of support, as seen by the Georgians? Militarily or Economically? It will probably depend on the status of Russian forces within the next couple of days. If they remain for “peace-keeping” duties, economically? If they withdraw, military support? How will we regain face?

Interesting that the Russians leak a desire to base or land bombers in Cuba some weeks ago..

When you step back and look at the power of the current Russians compared to the old U.S.S.R, the theater has moved towards them, not away. Certainly a matter for their concern. Time to stir the pot, see what shakes out. I wonder where their next move is?

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:49 am 23. RWE:

Cannoneer: Oil! Told Ya so!

Wretchard: And you’ll never get Alsace Lorraine!

Saw on TV a US Official saying that Russia had the recent months built a railroad to the area, supposedly for humanitarian purposes but in reality to enable the invasion.

So, yes, they are a force to be reckoned with. Just give them an established force in the area, a safe haven and time to build a railroad.

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:53 am 24. programmer:

Cpt. Charles,

I was thinking similar thoughts about the bombs dropped ‘near’ the pipeline.

Some sci-fi book had a line something like “the power to destroy a thing is the power to control it”. The bombs were a not so subtle parable.

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:53 am 25. RAH:

Ahh!! Use spell checker.

Actually I think the Russian were suprised the propaganda did not work and that US diplomats challenged them directly at the US that they are wanting regime change.

Also the real reason for oil control became so public so fast.

Aug 12, 2008 - 5:55 am 26. Dan:

Just scanning the web, you get hints- bits and pieces- that Russian casualties are enormous. Of course, the same can be said for Georgians, as well, but still…

It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next week or so. It’s fascinating to realize that several well-placed munitions could cut the Russians off from home. Tactically, they have lost every advantage by standing down.

One indisputable fact: every hour the Russians stand down is another priceless hour the Georgians have to build their defenses. But they MUST make a dent in Russian air superiority. However they do it, they MUST!

Aug 12, 2008 - 6:01 am 27. Mike Sylwester:

Now the international community should assemble the facts as objectively and correctly as it can.

As I said in the previous thread, Georgia’s President Saakashvili should be compelled to clarify his explanation that “the only option we had was to use long-range artillery” to destroy a key bridge near the city of Tskhinvali because “150 Russian tanks were approaching the region.” Exactly where were those Russian tanks while Georgian long-range artillery was bombarding the civilian population of Tskhinvali — oops, I meant to write: — bombarding a key bridge near Tskhinvali.

And let’s collect a lot more information about the Ossetians and their activities. What are the Ossetian organizations that have been attacking Georgians? How are they funded and armed? Who are their leaders? What do they want?

From the Russians we can ask for information about their relationships and cooperation with those Ossetian organizations and Russia’s efforts to control those organizations.

Do the Georgians living in South Ossetia have their own armed organizations that have been attacking Ossetians? How are they funded and armed? Who are their leaders? What do they want?

From the Georgians we can ask for information about their relationships and cooperation with those Georgian organizations in South Ossetia and about Georgia’s efforts to control those organizations.

Most fundamentally, the international community should explore possible resolutions to the ethnic conflict between Georgians and Ossetians. Why do the Ossetians want to become independent from Georgia? What Georgian guarantees, investments and reforms might satisfy the Ossetians? Is reconciliation still possible?

What do the Russians think about a future unification of South and North Ossetia? Would the Russians be willing to grant independence to a unified Ossetia or at least to keep Russian military forces out of it?

It seems to me that the best solution might be to allow the South and North Ossetians to unify into one entity that has to provide its own military and security forces. Russia should remove all its military bases from that area. In other words, Ossetia would be militarily weak enough that Georgia should not feel threatened by it.

As part of this re-arrangement, the Georgians living in South Ossetia should be offered money to resettle out of that area into Georgia proper.

Aug 12, 2008 - 6:05 am 28. lc:

Membership in a club confers certain rights, privileges and responsibilities on its members. In spite of all the would’a, should’a could’a, Georgia is NOT a member of NATO. They are an ally, sure, a vigorously budding democracy, yes, and a partner of the US in a strategic part of the world, definitely. BUT, they are not a member of NATO. I think that distinction is on of the “lines in the sand” Wretchard has referred to in some of his posts. There are many things countries friendly to Georgia can do (and hopefully are), but that “line” defines and constrains what all concerned parties can do now. Events should somehow clarify where that line is.
NATO is not dead; indeed, it will become stronger because of Russia’s aggression.
Besides, it seems that Russia couldn’t pull it off.

Aug 12, 2008 - 6:10 am 29. sigintel:

An hour before Medvedev made his statement that the Russians were halting their military action this happened…

BRUSSELS, August 12 (Itar-Tass) – The United States has blocked a meeting of the NATO-Russia Council on the situation in South Ossetia, Russia’s Ambassador to NATO Dmitry Rogozin told Itar-Tass.

“I regard this demarche of the US delegation as the unwillingness to hold a serious discussion on the causes and consequences of the Georgian aggression against South Ossetia and as the American side’s unwillingness to answer in the presence of NATO countries’ delegation difficult questions about the degree of the US involvement in the preparation and development of these tragic events,” the official said.

The US apparently told the Russians that their claim’s about genocide and ethnic cleansing were not going to be listened to and diplomatically we aced one on them before they could “hold court” to sway world opinion” in Brussels.

Aug 12, 2008 - 6:17 am 30. Cannoneer No. 4:

Why Not Ossetian Independence?

Why didn’t Georgia just give up South Ossetia? Does their “right” to secession trump Georgian sovereignty and national geographic integrity? Would it have been easier and avoided this conflict?

The answer is “no” to all of the above. Had Georgia simply given South Ossetia to Russia (which is really what would happen for all the talk of joining North and South Ossetia), the Russian fist would have been right down the middle of Georgia and given Russia effective control of the territory. All without a fight from Georgia. That would have made the Georgian government a non-entity immediately and Russia the controlling power. Georgia would no longer be free.

Would anyone in the United States have stood still for their government to do such a thing here?

Regardless of the much sped up conflict, had Georgia given South Ossetia to Russia, Russia would have immediately put a much larger military force inside Ossetia for “protection” instead of the smaller “peace keeping force” they had there as cover. They would have put many more air assets in the territory and these would have been within ten minutes of Gori and twenty of Tblisi. For all the reasons listed above that represents Russia’s current strategy, that made South Ossetia’s secession untenable and Russia’s presence a gun to the Georgian’s heads.

Aug 12, 2008 - 6:18 am 31. wretchard:

What Russia is doing now is trying to collect the victor’s spoils through an agent, in this case the EU. Since Georgia gave the EU a power of attorney, so to speak, Sarkozy has considerable leeway. But as a practical matter Sarkozy can’t go too far, and is intelligent enough to know it. I doubt Sarkozy has the outright power to demobilize the Georgian Army or force Saakashvili out of office; at least not without shredding the Georgian constitution.

More likely, Sarkozy will try to put together a package he thinks will fly with both sides and then fly to Tbilisi to iron out the doubtful points. There’s some danger that Sarkozy will be played for a patsy, and the negotiations used to play for time until more supplies, etc can be brought up. Maybe UN recon missions should be authorized by the Security Council to make sure there isn’t any landgrabbing on the sides.

But in any event, there is some chance that no agreement will be reached. And then what?

Aug 12, 2008 - 6:23 am 32. Pajamas Media » Russian Offensive Over. Or Is It?:

[...] Read the entire piece here… [...]

Aug 12, 2008 - 6:23 am 33. DanM:

Mike Sylwester,

By what reasoning do you automatically cede part of Georgia? Does this not encourage Russia to make a few relatively small military strikes to gain political advantage elsewhere?

As has been discussed by some, this seems to be at least partially about the stranglehold Russia has on the energy delivered to Europe. What would ceding S. Ossetia do the the pipeline?

If Russia withdraws, a massive influx of cash to support and augment the pipeline with redundant paths and systems might help on that front. If they remain, a secondary pipeline funded by the Europeans might be in order. Not a small or quick task, but it puts Russia politically on their heels in the oil/gas bag of tricks. I find it hard to believe that oil/gas are the only reasons for this. The number 1 reason, possibly. The only one? Not probable.

I keep coming back to Iran… That is where the global stage is focused. Russia has at least given tacit support to the mullahs. Why, in that context, does Russia open up a “2nd” front? The railroad is key, perhaps?

Aug 12, 2008 - 6:25 am 34. neolex:

This appears to be far from over, indicated by the fact that it is Medvedyev who made the announcement. I suspect Russia decided to cash its chips. It will likely demand removal of Saakashvili, but only as a starting position. They realise that the demand is pointless, as he is likely to fall from power in the aftermath, whether through elections or not. I do not expect Russian troops to move anywhere north of their current positions, until they get the agreement from the west. They will likely settle for non-aggression obligation by Georgia (effectively giving Russia) complete control of SO and Abkhazia and an agreement with US and EU not to ship certain weapons to Georgia and not base their weapons there. Until this agreement is attained, Russian troops are likely to remain where they are.

In the mid-term this will prevent any action against Iran, as Russia will effectively be holding Georgia hostage, and can at any point restart the operation. Forces are likely to remain in the region for “protection” of Ossetians and further “humanitarian aid”. Also, it will now be impossible to use Georgian territory for any war plans against Iran.

In the long term, this is disastreous for Russia. Any opposition to missile shield, and joining of NATO by Ukraine and Georgia has been eliminated. If anything Russian actions will have the opposite effect, by making everyone run towards US. Russia can also kiss good-bye to WTO and billions of investment. The extent of quite punitive actions EU will enact highly demands on oil prices and whether they continue to fall.

Aug 12, 2008 - 6:26 am 35. cyc:

I note that since August 8 the comment section after each Georgia story on The Times of London website have been jam packed with Russian ‘citizens’ defending Russia’s actions. (www.timesonline.co.uk.)

The comments are too obvious and too out of place for the normal traffic at The Times, to be anything but the product of an organized propaganda campaign.

Noteworthy (and most telling) are the comments claiming that the west is being deceived by their government controlled medias.

But to the media-savvy filtering western eye, the comments are clumsy and out of touch. They are 20th century tactics on a 21st century public. They have all the finesse of a dancing bear in a ballerina dress.

Aug 12, 2008 - 6:28 am 36. Programmer:

Wretchard says: “But in any event, there is some chance that no agreement will be reached. And then what?”

Programmer observes: Time passes, ships move, supplies shift, holes are dug, ammo is redistributed, communication lines are reestablished, command and control reestablished,…

Hudna is not just for Islam any more!

Aug 12, 2008 - 6:30 am 37. 3Case:

I presume that Pooti and his boyz decided that the time to change their behavior was when they could see the sh@tstorm on the horizon and, I guess, that has happened. Stopping in place and dictating terms to the World is a truly great play for them. Personally, I think they need to be bathed in the sh@tstorm a bit…and I don’t buy the BS about US armed forces “stretched too thin” to respond, though I agree with the permitting of that perception; “cover and concealment are continuous.

As to investing, this exercise in Georgia provides a reminder of the advice that one should invest nothing in Russia that one is not prepared to lose.

Aug 12, 2008 - 6:31 am 38. cjm:

perhaps every single tank that moved beyond a certain point was destroyed. perhaps every single plane that flew beyond a certain point was destroyed. who looks like a little bitch now, after all the bluster. the msm will never give you the real story, but generals talk to each other and russia looks to have had its skirts lifted here, giving everyone a good look at what’s underneath.

there is a word for when one force can kill the other at will, and not suffer any casualties; that word is checkmate.

Aug 12, 2008 - 6:31 am 39. cjm:

it’s intersting how msm comment sections are vulnerable to propaganda ops, but forums like this one are capable of identifying and neutralizing them. is it me or have all the pro-russian visitors gone away, now that they have been revealed? of course amateur dupes like sylvester still waste people’s time with their bleatings. why even read his postings (i skip them reflexively, like stepping over dog poop)? to engage a leftist is to give them nourishment.

Aug 12, 2008 - 6:36 am 40. RattlerGator:

you’re still giving them far too much credit, neolex.

But at least you’re not laughing.

Aug 12, 2008 - 6:38 am 41. Susan Katz Keating:

We shall see. We might not like what we see, but we shall surely see.

Aug 12, 2008 - 6:38 am 42. hdgreene:

Well, I think we can call him Vlad the Invader now.

There seem to be a lot of people who think Iraq was an illegal war who now say to the Georgians, “You should not have shouted at that old Grizzly, son. Should have moved quite slow around him. Naturally, the most nicest, most tame bear in all creation will chase you down and eat you if you do stuff like that!”

Yes, what we need now — as the gun smoke clears — is a round of detente (aromatic diplomatic smoke blow). I’ll take mine al dente. You know, firm but not hard.

So. The Russian boyars now build an oriental despotism (and they still want to be seen as cultured Westerners — or rather demand it). They’ll invade neighbors without so much as a by-your-leave (what’s worse, they won’t even bother to buy it). This comes in a age when even Oriental Despotisms don’t want to be seen as Oriental Despotisms (hence the current Olympics).

At one time I suggested that the agreement we reach with Iraq contain a “goal” of training their security forces into a “Nato” level military. Might have a nice ring to it given recent events.

Of course, we need to bring Syria around. Swapping regime change in Georgia for regime change in Iraq is a silly notion — Iraq’s been done. Ancient history. But Syria? If Russia were to gobble up Georgia, having a rogue Syria around just wouldn’t make sense. Turkey is going to need strategic depth.

Of course, Spengler says Turkey is going Islamist. If so, the Islamist rulers won’t want to be thought of as Oriental Despots. So look for the Istanbul Olympics in 2020. Who said geopolitics is hard?

Aug 12, 2008 - 6:38 am 43. vitoc:

DanM wrote: “I keep coming back to Iran… That is where the global stage is focused. Russia has at least given tacit support to the mullahs. Why, in that context, does Russia open up a “2nd” front? The railroad is key, perhaps?”

The following is of course nothing but wild speculation.
DanM, how about the Georgian military bases and airfields? I am still wondering whether the Russian government might have thought that Georgia might have lent a helping hand to US and/or Israeli war preparations against Iran. There are Israeli military advisors in Georgia right now. Are they doing more than merely training the Georgian army?

It is not that far to Iran from there…

Aug 12, 2008 - 6:41 am 44. neolex:

Why is everyone so concerned about Turkey going Islamic? If history is any indication, the Islamic rule will be speedily deposed by the Turkish military, who have been on the vanguard of secularism since Ataturk.

Aug 12, 2008 - 6:48 am 45. cyc:

cjm, I had that same thought also. Who knows what party favors were sent hope with the Georgian troops from Iraq? Who knows how many Russian tanks just suddenly blew up last night?

Aug 12, 2008 - 6:49 am 46. neolex:

Current losses are highly unlikely to be factor in the current announcement by Medvedyev. Russian govt was never concerned about how many people it sends into the meat-grinder. Look at how many they lost in Chechnya and didnt give a damn.

Aug 12, 2008 - 6:54 am 47. cjm:

something signifigant, something new caused the russians to draw up like a horse in front of a coiled rattler. and it wasn’t pictures of obama riding a dolphin.

Aug 12, 2008 - 6:56 am 48. Dan:

It sure SEEMS that something significant caused them to screech the brakes. And I’m pretty sure it wasn’t GWB staring them down on TeeVee.

The question I have now is; do they stay where they are, or start heading back home?

What is smart thing to do here, tactically?

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:00 am 49. Lifeofthemind:

Pardon the double post but I put this on the dead thread by accident.
The one part of this equation that I am having the hardest time getting a handle on is Soros. If the Georgian government is a Soros funded and run operation then why would it align itself with American power projection into Iraq and Iran? We have Putin, the Chinese, Bush and Soros (he of the Invisible Empire) playing four way chess here. Clearly it is in America’s interest to see Putin lose but what else is a desired result? No physicist can model even a three body problem.

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:03 am 50. Dennis:

We can have peace in our day; if only we understand , they only want the Sudeten er a Ossetsa!! Wake up and stand for something other than a fast meal at the local mega super latte joint!

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:04 am 51. neolex:

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Russia-Georgia-War-Civilian-Targets-Being-Hit-Georgian-Ambassador-Says/Article/200808215076262

Have they screeched the breaks, or are simply trying to win time?

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:05 am 52. wretchard:

something signifigant, something new caused the russians to draw up like a horse in front of a coiled rattler. and it wasn’t pictures of obama riding a dolphin

The usual reasons are logistics and exhaustion. After about 72 hours even young men find it hard to keep going. If you have a very narrow front, as the Russians may have had, the opportunity for switching units may not be so easy. Then, with the reaction from the West, the uncertainties begin to mount. Plus, any assault over a defended river crossing, such as would have been required to reach Tbilisi, might need some preparation. There would also have been some losses. So if going forward is not an option, why not turn it into a virtue and call it a ceasefire? Meanwhile, recon goes forward … it’s exempt from the ceasefire remember?

I’m not saying the Russians are planning a fast one. But it’s wise to remember the famous adage of Ronald Reagan: trust but verify.

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:05 am 53. cjm:

perhaps the chinese indicated to commrade bumbler that their iran vote in the security council was in play.

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:05 am 54. Trent Telenko:

Wretchard,

The Georgian Army still exists, thus the Georgian state still exists.

The Georgians did well to survive. They were fighting under enemy air superiority and the Russians took out their military communications network from the get go.

The Georgian Army abandoned all their extended positions to the higher operational tempo Russians forces and redeployed to a much lower operational tempo terrain (the urban belt approaching Tblisi and the mountains behind it) where they could use land lines, couriers, cover and concealment to deal with the invasion.

The Russians could not bag the Georgians for reasons of logistics and training. They did not have the night vision technology on their planes and the skilled troops to pursue the Georgians at night.

That meant that Russians had to prepare for a major siege and break in of the approached to Tblisi under the eyes of the international media.

Putan chose to for go that battle.

Will the Georgians submit now to the Russians? We shall see.

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:06 am 55. kris sargent:

This is a very curious development, and, if not a ploy by the Russians, very positive for us.

I think the Russians were expecting the Georgians to stand and fight and hold the cities. As crazy as it sounds, I think the Georgians pulled an Alexander I on the Russians, and the Russians, faced with their worst case scenario — all the reasons mentioned above — made the decision to quit while they were “ahead”.

At least, that’s what it looks like from here. As to the American role in all this, we must have been able to get across some subterranean signals that made Russia rethink its priorities. That’s encouraging if true; it means our real power — and our self-awareness of it — is much greater than I thought.

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:13 am 56. cloudswihtoutwater:

Why assume this hasn’t gone precisely to plan?

It seems unlikely to me that Russia wanted to totally subsume Georgia in an invasion, they just wanted controlling influence, which they will now have.

Remaining as an occupying force has a very high price the Russians know all too well. Remaining as a potent, valid, proven threat is a much lower costs for more or less the same end result.

It seems clear that Russia had some very specific military goals that were accomplished in quick, day-long raids. We may or may not ever know what those were.

Their geopolitical goals are accomplished as well. The former republics, particularly those that border more on Asia than Europe, are now on notice that their freedom only stretches so far.

I’d be surprised if the length of this incursion was not precisely what the Russians planned for.

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:14 am 57. S:

DanM

Any color on US basing rights or landing rights in Azerbijan? Georgia was central to Rumsfield’s lily pond strategy, no? What of US forces in Uzbek? The Turks are reported to have turned a blind eye to the Israeli bombing rumn pjn Syria reactor, why not Iran? The Turks might extract something from the US in exchange for keeping the Kurds on a short leash and their oil aspirations. Then again iran is on record saying they will stike the BTC if attacked? also what if Mushariff goes and pakistan becomes problematic? How do you get supplies into Afghan?

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:16 am 58. wretchard:

I don’t see the Georgians giving up their essential sovereignty. They’ve paid too much for it to simply give it away. They’ll bargain with the Russians, who will find it that much harder, politically speaking, to restart the assault now that the Georgians are out of Ossetia and Abkhazia by the Kremlin’s own accounting.

What the Russians have over the Georgians is a blockade of their commercial lines of communication. But they will have that anyway, simply by controlling South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which is why the Georgians, despite having no cultural claim to those two places, wanted them. They are the Golan Heights of Georgia; not really theirs but required by military necessity. So what the Georgians will look for is something that will keep them from being garroted. But since that will mean the Georgians keeping what the Russians are unwilling to concede it will be a hard bargain to reach. It’s a bargain the Russians could have extracted from a prostrate foe. But Georgia, though wounded, is not prostrate.

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:17 am 59. Old Blue:

I agree wholeheartedly with Wretchard that we need to wait for the bits and pieces to trickle in. I don’t believe for a second that the Georgians, with their tiny force, are at all capable of defending against a classic Russian onslaught for long. There was no invisible line beyond which their tanks and aircraft miraculously died.

While I am positive that Western tactics and Western-style leadership may have made the Georgians more effective than they may have otherwise seemed, a force that size of Americans with American weapons and the same lack of any ability to resupply would not last long against the mass of the Russian Army, though the cost would be high.

The Russians have never shown any unwillingness to sustain heavy casualties.

A question that I am interested in the answer to is this; why did the Georgians find it necessary to resort to indirect fires in Ossetia? While I believe that they have a right to maintain their territorial integrity, why did they approach Ossetia as if it were a smaller nation and they were at war?

What was the political situation that developed in Ossetia? Why were the Ossetians so disturbed with Georgian rule that they felt the need to secede, and how much force were they using?

If the Georgians had used counterinsurgency tactics and strongly applied the rule of law in Ossetia, would the Russians have found the excuse they needed to intervene?

The Russians have demonstrated huge insecurity for years as the Western frontier has crept closer to their borders. As nations such as the Ukraine and former Eastern Bloc countries have streamed into the Western camp, the Russians have complained repeatedly.

The famous Russian inferiority complex, bred into the Russian psyche since the middle ages and subject to frequent outbursts since the adventures of Peter the Great, is still in play.

The Russians find themselves dubious master of their own region, much less the superpower that they were a scant few years ago. Never happy with their former Soviet Socialist Republic, and being handed a high-minded “reason” to intervene, they took it.

Before allowing NATO membership to a country such as Georgia, we must ask ourselves a simple question; are we willing to dance the dance if the music starts? Are we willing to back our principles with action? Principles without action are dead.

The Russians have accomplished a number of their ends as it is. Totally engulfing Georgia would be past the point of diminishing returns for them geopolitically; there was no invisible “line of death.” They simply accomplished what they wanted. They didn’t want to kill the baby… they just wanted to shake it hard enough to make it developmentally disabled. Had they wanted, they could easily take Georgia for their own. They just don’t want to pay the short term consequences.

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:22 am 60. Mike Sylwester:

DanM:
“By what reasoning do you automatically cede part of Georgia? Does this not encourage Russia to make a few relatively small military strikes to gain political advantage elsewhere?”
——————-

Most of the people in that part of Georgia want either 1) independence from Georgia or 2) a continuing Russian military protection force.

If Georgia can reconcile with the Ossetians by seriously striving to help satisfy the Ossetians’ cultural fears and aspirations, then I’m all for it.

If Georgia prefers to spend the 21st century fighting for South Ossetia, a place populated overwhelmingly by hostile non-Georgians, then Georgia will have to deal with the consequences of that preference without expecting significant help from the USA or Europe.

In a perfect world, Georgia’s northern border would be the Caucasus Mountains, but there is a pocket of Ossetians who spoil that perfection. The Russians have the same problem on their side of the Caucasus Mountains.

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:24 am 61. Old Blue:

I submit that the answer to my question of NATO membership is no.

We lack the national will to complete a dance that we started all by ourselves. The fast food nation has no endurance under all its layers of fat, and our detractors bet on it and win.

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:26 am 62. Cannoneer No. 4:

Lieutenant General Thomas McInerney, USAF (Ret.) was just on Fox News calling for a NATO No-Fly zone over Georgia.

Love the idea, but don’t think NATO has the stones for that.

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:26 am 63. Cannoneer No. 4:

General McInerney mentioned basing Georgia No Fly Zone operations out of Turkey (Incirlik, I assume) and Balad, Iraq.

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:28 am 64. Michael Hoskins:

More questions.
Where is the 6th fleet carrier battle group?
What is happening at Ft. Bragg ?(Spec Ops Command) (We already have a good sized Green Beret/ Mil Assist group in country.)
How many cars are staying late in the Pentegon and foggy bottom parking lots?

Naval persons (moi et al) really like the concept of Presence. A BG in the eastern Med is presence.

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:30 am 65. S:

where is victor bout?

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:30 am 66. wretchard:

Lieutenant General Thomas McInerney, USAF (Ret.) was just on Fox News calling for a NATO No-Fly zone over Georgia.

That would make Russia effectively the loser of the war. May it should be proposed just to get it on the table. That would set Putin’s gizzards churning.

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:30 am 67. Michael Hoskins:

PS.
Does anyone have access to any civilian satelite photos? You might even see the Battle Group in the Aegean. (Look for about 6 to 10 wakes sorta in a circle)

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:32 am 68. Aether:

Mike Sylwester:

“Now the international community should assemble the facts as objectively and correctly as it can.

As I said in the previous thread, Georgia’s President Saakashvili should be compelled to clarify his explanation that “the only option we had was to use long-range artillery” to destroy a key bridge near the city of Tskhinvali because “150 Russian tanks were approaching the region.” Exactly where were those Russian tanks while Georgian long-range artillery was bombarding the civilian population of Tskhinvali — oops, I meant to write: — bombarding a key bridge near Tskhinvali.”

Mik(hail) SylWester, You’re appear to be implying that the Georgians pulled a “Grozny” on Tskhinvali !

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:33 am 69. ash:

I think wretchard and old blue have a good take on the situation. Logistics and having already achieved ones primary goals are a good reason to hold up. They can continue and take the rest if they so choose in the future but there is no reason to screw it up at this early a stage. They can consolidate as they hold some very powerful cards still. They can also watch and see if the West actually mobilizes.

BTW, is there a difference between Wretchard and Richard? I thought they were one and the same…

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:35 am 70. Joseph Somsel:

One spinoff of this little war will be a major expansion of civilian nuclear power in Europe and elsewhere. Germany will especially want to get busy since their wind power investments are clearly misplaced and continued dependence on Gazprom can be fatal.

Likewise, California MUST turn away from their intended dependence on Russian LNG to be landed in Mexico. The state denied the Australians a permit to build a terminal off Malibu leaving only the Russian gas flow to fuel future electric generation in the state.

One could almost suspect a Russian hand in blocking nuclear and coal development and encouraging the dead-end technologies of wind and solar.

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:38 am 71. cjm:

kurdistan is the new turkey.

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:38 am 72. Rob:

Well, from all reports the Russians are still fighting, so before we trust their ceasefire words (which throughout this conflict have been meaningless), some caution should be exercised.

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:39 am 73. Aether:

Joseph Somsel:

“One spinoff of this little war will be a major expansion of civilian nuclear power in Europe and elsewhere.”

Also, I suspect that when the US Congress returns to session, a resolution to open up oil drilling in the CONUS and ANWAR will *sail* through the legislature.

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:41 am 74. Lifeofthemind:

Perhaps we could propose replacing Russia with India on the UN Security Council.

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:43 am 75. Kaisersrsic:

The Russian president . . . said a full settlement of the conflict could only be reached if Georgian troops returned to their initial positions.

Does this not imply that the Georgians have held territory? What are the territorial gains?

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:44 am 76. Dan:

A couple dozen cruise missiles, NATO air cover and some AC-130 night action might help the Russians remember the way home.

Yeah, I know, I know…

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:47 am 77. John Samford:

I shouldn’t try to type/spell before my first cup of coffee…
Aug 12, 2008 – 4:39 am

AKA the Typos protocol.

Meanwhile, when is a truce not a truce? When one side keeps shooting.
As usual the Bush administration has fumbled away an opportunity. Just like they fumbled away 1st Fallaujah and had to go back later and try to put Humpty Dumpty back together again, so will the USA have to go into Georgia to prop it up in the future at a much greater cost.
If we don’t the former Warsaw pact nations will not be so former anymore. I wonder if anyone at Foggy Bottom understands just what a bad thing that would be.
Meanwhile, the Soviet, errrr……Russian propaganda machine has been cranking out mountains of fecal matter on how Georgia is like Kosovo.
Not a molecule on how Georgia was dealing with it’s problem in south Goatherderolvia the same way the Soviet, err…. Russians dealt with Chechnya. It seems what is sauce for the goose is not sauce for the bear if you are a liberal editor of some sort of economically failing media rag.
It is a sad day when you have to depend on the National Enquirer for real journalism. Very Sad.

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:48 am 78. DanM:

Mike S,

Understand your point, but not willing to concede it yet. You are, in fact, correct politically. But, tactically (see Wretchards previous post, 2nd paragraph), intolerable to the Georgians. A second “front” opened up with the goal of minimizing the importance of S. Ossetia and Abkhazia buys time while negotiations are underway. Any trouble in the second front is splashed on the world news and directed at the Russians.

Meanwhile, air cover is provided, troops from the UN are sent as observers, Russia is effectively side-lined while having to concentrate on a second front interdiction inside of Georgia proper. All under the scrutiny of the “neutral” world press.

Does Russia seriously want a 2nd Cold War? Not with a drive to reduce oil consumption and energy independence. That is their only lifeline to the civilized world. That and nuclear technology…

I have never been “green” in the political sense. But, the idea of breaking the stranglehold that OPEC and Russia have on the Civilized world MUST be addressed. Time and investment are what is needed to complete this. I want to write something about the glee of seeing the Sauds coming hat-in-hand to the UN for food, but children can’t pick their parents…

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:56 am 79. Steve:

Also note this ceasefire coincided with Georgian troops airlifted from Iraq, where they may be bringing the superior American night vision equipment issued to them. Of course, they might stowaway some shoulder launched anti-aircraft gear (so successful against the Russians in Afganistan). Will Stingers still, after 30 years, bring down Russian aircraft? Probably enough for them to notice…

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:58 am 80. Lifeofthemind:

Energy development options to break the current Russian – Islamist threat.
1. Nuclear, primary problems are legal not technical or environmental.
2. Shale, real problems for the environment subject to improved technology.
3. ANWAR, really just a political problem, technical and environment problems easily solved.
4. Coal, enormous potential due to improving technology.
5. Venezuala, removal of Chavez and reinvestment would dramatically improve production.
6. Iran, separation of oil region of Arabistan would cripple the Mullahs.
7. Wind, high development and environmental costs.
8. Solar, long term potential at high near term cost.

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:58 am 81. Shivermetimbers:

Cloudswithoutwater

“Why assume this hasn’t gone precisely to plan?

And to achieve this plan, what has it cost them in the short and long term?

Can this event be used to now strengthen our alliances with Ukraine, Poland, etc? Will Europe wake up to the energy threat Russia holds over them? Will China look at this as a threat to their own access to energy and cooperate with the US more? Will this force a vote on the US drilling for our own reserves? Will the US suddenly see just how empty Obama is?

If leveraged correctly, this could have longer term consequences that are unfavorable to Putin, I hope.

Aug 12, 2008 - 7:59 am 82. cjm:

maybe pelosi cracking on blocking drilling made vlad see that he was screwing the oily goose with his georgian fumble.

found some footage of bush telling putin how it is:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGpajGj07BU&feature=related

Aug 12, 2008 - 8:02 am 83. Trent Telenko:

Wretchard,

In analyzing this fight, the Georgian leadership comes off looking very Janus like.

The Georgian political leadership (AKA President Saakashvili) was stupid to start this fight, but the Georgian military leadership was very reality based in dealing with the military position it was in through out.

The Russian forces shot off the 58th Division’s artillery basic load driving the Georgian’s out of the city of Tskhinvali and the pass behind it. After that, the Russians seemed to rely on airpower while the 58th’s logistics caught up, (and it’s command structure got over losing it’s commanding general to a Georgian air strike on the second day of the conflict).

The Georgian military leaders’s figured out the logistical implications of the Russian position, and their own under Russian air superiority, and hot footed it back to that river crossing at Mtskheta, outside of Tblisi. They fell back on a strong position that could not be flanked or turned without a “Taking of Grozny” level of military firepower

I don’t think the Russians had the logistics for another Grozny, which is the level of effort that would be needed to take Tblisi, at least not quickly enough for Putin’s political time table.

So the Georgian Army survived and thus the Georgian state.

That said, Pres. Saakashvili is toast. If he doesn’t lose his nerve or those around him don’t. He will get thrown out by Georgian voters in the next election for being an idiot.

Aug 12, 2008 - 8:03 am 84. Old Blue:

I think that Georgia needs to tiptoe a bit right now, even though they are still smarting from the hard slaps to the face and buttocks.

Russia would love to have the legitimate pretext to finish the job and eventually swallow Georgia whole. All they need is for Georgia to visibly continue to strenuously resist. Georgia needs to “tap out” at some point.

That doesn’t mean that their elected leadership needs to step down, and “demiliterization” is an unrealistic demand; almost Versailles-like in its humiliation.

It is possible that the Russians are making unreasonable demands in order to claim justification in further violent domination of Georgia.

Before declaring a “no fly zone” or any other statement of principle, we need to very seriously consider our ability to make good on our promises and what the end result of a Russian test of those principles will be.

Why would we not expect the Russians to assert their own version of a “Monroe Doctrine” in the Caucausus when we clearly will not tolerate Russian bombers or missiles in Cuba?

Again, we must examine our motives and the results of casting our support about in areas that we lack the endurance to fool with.

Does the fat kid with the heavy hands really want to dance with the bear? The fat kid hits really hard, but he wheezes after a little effort.

The more often we make bellicose noises without the will to back them up, the less credible we become. Russia is poking us in the eye indirectly, but it is our own fault.

The Georgians should be counseled strongly to show restraint and document any further Russian advances into Georgia. Russia is waiting for the right “provocation” with which to justify finishing the job and treating Saakashvili as we did Saddam Hussein. They are already making the same noises that we did towards Iraq.

And they will point to our invasion of Iraq as their justification.

We, and the Georgians, should tread lightly and avoid giving the Russians the pretext.

Once the Russians have backed off a bit and settled down some, the casualties that they sustained will be questioned by the families and the delayed pressure from within will discourage another strong thrust. However, that reaction is always delayed in Russia. Stirring them further while they have a head of steam up and no back-pressure from their own public is a very dangerous position to be in for both Georgia and for NATO.

Aug 12, 2008 - 8:05 am 85. hdgreene:

As for Iran, the mullahs have watched the Russians eat their oats, and they’ve watched them feel their oats, and now they’ve seen them sow their oats.

Well, if memory serves Russia occupied northern Iran during WWII, and decided that after the war they were going to stay, thank you. They argued that it was part of historic Russia and if it weren’t, it should have been. OK, they were probably standing up for their fraternal Azerbaijanian brothers. They hadn’t thought of the passport trick yet. In anycase, Truman asked nice and Stalin agreed to leave.

Now, we are all so busy remembering the CIA guy who spread some money around to help get that leftist prime minister kicked out (back in nineteen aught fifty-four, I believe) that it is understandable no one knows of that earlier episode — and generally discount that whole “Russia wanting to bath its feet in the Indian Ocean” thing. But some of those old mullahs may have paused, during their initial memorization of the Koran, and noticed a certain covetousness among their Northern neighbors.

Say what you will about the great Satan, he’s at least on the other side of the globe. So dialing back on that “eternal enemy thing” might be called for — not among the hotheads, but among those capable of more sober reflection. To perform an effective balancing act they will need that counterweight. Besides, if you can break up Georgia, why not Iran? Is it time to print those passports?

Aug 12, 2008 - 8:10 am 86. DanM:

Old Blue – “Does the fat kid with the heavy hands really want to dance with the bear? The fat kid hits really hard, but he wheezes after a little effort.”

Excellent.

Aug 12, 2008 - 8:16 am 87. steeple:

Regarding the energy issues, the US is in much better shape that the EU. The US is not likely to need any LNG, more or less Russian LNG, as independents such as Chesapeake, Devon, Petrohawk, XTO and others have done a fabulous job of growing US nat gas production. We could probably physically become an exporter over the short term if we wanted to, but that obviously won’t happen, Meanwhile, Europe relies on Russia for over half of their natural gas supply. Given that this is the incremental fuel for powering industry and power plants, Europe is likely to be very disadvantaged vs. US natural gas in the coming years. A bigger move to nuclear is definitely in order there.

This is very different from oil, where we remain clearly highly dependent for transportation fuels. Even though they are often said in the same breath, the oil and gas industries have striking differences.

Aug 12, 2008 - 8:16 am 88. Dan:

WTF? According to this AP bit, things may NOT be as they appear. Planes? Artillery duels?

“A poster hanging nearby showed Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and the slogan “Say yes to peace and stability” as South Ossetian separatist fighters launched rockets at a Georgian plane soaring overhead.”

and…

“The situation in Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia, remained tense Tuesday as sporadic fighting and artillery duels continued, but the city was in the control of Russian army and South Ossetian forces.

In the villages once populated by ethnic Georgians on the outskirts of Tskhinvali, South Ossetian fighters reportedly set fire to Georgian houses, and carried out searches in the villages.”

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080812/D92GPF880.html

Aug 12, 2008 - 8:20 am 89. wretchard:

The Georgian President has announced (see my updated post) before flag-waving crowds that Parliament has decided to leave the Commonwealth of Independent States and has urged the Ukraine to follow suit. CNN quotes him as saying it is “time to say adios to the Soviet Union”. I’m guessing that won’t go down so well in the Kremlin, but maybe that’s just me.

Aug 12, 2008 - 8:23 am 90. Aristide:

We have had a lot of discussion on what Russia’s plans are, but I haven’t seen any discussion on what Georgia’s plan was.

Was it to take the Roki tunnel?

Was it simply to intimidate the South Ossets by bombing and shelling Tskhinvali

Was it to hold Tskhinvali?

Was it a calculated political move to provoke Russia so as to gain the NATO membership that has eluded it?

Or what?

Aug 12, 2008 - 8:29 am 91. Cannoneer No. 4:

Old Blue,

why did they approach Ossetia as if it were a smaller nation and they were at war?

Read “Why Can’t We Live Together?”

In the case of South Ossetia, a self-proclaimed independent country that is, in fact, neither independent nor a country, “nowhere” is probably the best way to describe where it’s gone. It’s perhaps the closest you can get today to experiencing the old Soviet Union, as well as a good place to get the flavor of a good old-fashioned, Cold-War-style proxy war between the United States and Russia. South Ossetia broke away from Georgia after a chaotic 18-month war that killed 1,000 (of a population of 60,000) between 1990 and 1992. Today, South Ossetia is propped up by Russia: Moscow pays government salaries and provides the bulk of the peacekeeping forces.

South Ossetia now appears to be a police state. Close to half the men I see on the street are police or military, and many men not in uniform openly wear pistols.

There are very few shops and little activity on the streets, even for a town of 40,000—but especially for the capital of a would-be independent republic. The biggest industry besides the security apparatus, which is almost all funded from Moscow, is subsistence farming.

South Ossetia was maintained by the Russians since 1992 as a salient into Georgia. South Ossetia reaches down like a finger that effectively cuts Georgia in half.

Aug 12, 2008 - 8:29 am 92. DanM:

hdgreene,

Excellent points. (here comes the proviso..)

Are you assuming that Russia believes that to further strengthen their geo-political force, they must have a weak U.S. response?

From what I can see of this Georgia dust-up, we haven’t shown them anything that would check that thought.

Aug 12, 2008 - 8:32 am 93. RattlerGator:

This idea that the leader of Georgia seems extremely premature. And its odd to me that it seems to be taken as conventional wisdom.

Aug 12, 2008 - 8:36 am 94. RattlerGator:

This idea that the leader of Georgia *IS TOAST* seems extremely premature. And its odd to me that it seems to be taken as conventional wisdom.

Aug 12, 2008 - 8:37 am 95. Trent Telenko:

Wretchard,

See this article:

‘Abkhaz forces launch offensive against Georgia’

http://www.reuters.com/article/europeCrisis/idUSLC524457

It appears The South Ossetians have annexed the middle third of Georgia behind Russian force and the Abkhaz are now doing the same in the western third.

If the Georgian and NGO reports coming from there are to be believed, both regions seems to be suffering campaigns of ethnic cleansing via looting, rape, pillage, arson etc.

The Russians are warning the Georgians to stop fighting these campaigns or “suffer the consiquences.”

Aug 12, 2008 - 8:57 am 96. Joseph Somsel:

Steeple,

The East Coast of the US has a bigger supplier network for LNG but I seriously doubt that the US could export natural gas in any major way (some local supplies to bordering Mexico.) Only the Wyoming fields are expanding in significant volumes. We are drilling a lot more but each new well is yielding less gas. Freeing up offshore resources would help definitely but please don’t view this as a panacea – it is a valid political point but won’t reverse the underlying trends.

My key point is California, my home. The state has decided only natural gas, wind, and solar are allowed to provide new electric supplies. The latter two are bogus rent seeking, a waste of money, and a political diversion. Additional natural gas will come partially from Wyoming but we’ll be sharing that with the Midwest as the new pipeline east comes on line. The primary new supply will be Russian LNG landed in Mexico and piped into SoCal.

This is folly of the worst sort.

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:00 am 97. Sandy Salt:

The Bear is not going away quietly and don’t think for a minute that it won’t cut off oil and gas to the EU to bring them around. This is just the tip of the Bear iceberg. Putin is running the show and I believe that this *cease-fire* is a ruse. The Bear does not take a dump without a plan. It may be a bad one, but there is a plan here and only time will tell what it really is. I think the world will be shocked at what happens next. I don’t see a US-Russia direct tussle, but Israel isn’t going to wait around for a nuke to go off in Tel Aviv before Iran feels some serious pain.

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:03 am 98. Jim,MtnViewCA,USA:

“In the long term, this is disastrous for Russia. Any opposition to missile shield, and joining of NATO by Ukraine and Georgia has been eliminated.”
I’m not so sure. Most of Europe still seems to be searching for someone to surrender to. Will the Euros wake up or burrow deeper into sleep?

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:05 am 99. Lifeofthemind:

It strikes me as a good time to tidy things up by removing the Baathist regime in Syria but I thought that was a good idea before we went into Baghdad.

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:05 am 100. NahnCee:

The Georgians should be counseled strongly to show restraint and document any further Russian advances into Georgia.

Not so excellent.

Do we think that Georgia’s tactics both on the ground and politically were being made in a vacuum of their own little country? Or do we think they were on the red phone constantly with the Pentagon and every move, feint and countermove was being coordinated with DC?

I plunk for option #2, so that any announcements being made by Georgia’s Prez (why are their names so hard to spell???) have been approved by Washington before being released.

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:11 am 101. JoshC:

I keep hearing claims of “atrocities”, “genocide”, “cities being levelled” etc. Yet I’ve not seen any evidence of any such thing. The Russians have complete control over South Ossetia. If there has been massacres there then where’s the photographic proof?

Is this just another propaganda war like the one in Lebanon? And is it coincidence that so many journalists trying to get into South Ossetia have been killed?

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:13 am 102. coisty:

Virtually everything McCain is saying right now about what Russia did in Georgia could be said about what the US did in Serbia.

To people around the world it is maddening to see how easily ordinary Americans take in all this propaganda. They’re blank slates being filled in by CNN and American politicians like McCain (with his long time Georgian lobbyist Randy Scheumann). Unfortunately, most Americans lack the curiosity to go beyond soundbites to find out the truth.

“We are all Georgians now”

Sickening.

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:22 am 103. Sandy Salt:

The massacres will not be in South Ossetia, but rather all over the Russian occupied territories. Occupied Territories sounds kind of familiar, but what do I know.

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:23 am 104. Lifeofthemind:

McCain spoke I missed it, anyone have a transcript or video link?

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:25 am 105. Lifeofthemind:

JoshC:
I keep hearing claims of “atrocities”, “genocide”, “cities being levelled” etc. Yet I’ve not seen any evidence of any such thing. The Russians have complete control over South Ossetia. If there has been massacres there then where’s the photographic proof?

The “proof” is being manufactured even as we speak. What has surprised me is just how primitive the Russian propaganda has been. Cranked out of some warehouse from the 1930s or earlier. On the other hand it has proven effective for Putin’s purpose. Maybe he needs to get points for sticking to what he knows and keeping it simple. His biggest innovation has been flooding the minorities of the regions he has occupied with Russian passports. The Germans did not think of doing that before the Sudeten or Danzig crises.

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:31 am 106. mark_b:

JoshC:

“I keep hearing claims of “atrocities”, “genocide”, “cities being levelled” etc. Yet I’ve not seen any evidence of any such thing. The Russians have complete control over South Ossetia. If there has been massacres there then where’s the photographic proof?

Is this just another propaganda war like the one in Lebanon? And is it coincidence that so many journalists trying to get into South Ossetia have been killed?”

Wouldn’t that be fragging? I’m sure that Reuters/AP will have plenty of the ‘Georgian Atrocity’ to show us shortly. Just like in Lebanon, maybe we’ll get to see Green Helmet Guy arranging the dead for photo shoots.

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:33 am 107. cjm:

i wonder if that russian general was actually captured (and subsequently released) along with laptops, comm codes, who knows what else.

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:33 am 108. hdgreene:

DanM:

Those partial to feminist theory claimed that rape was the way men controlled women because “bad men” forced woman to seek an accommodation with the “bad men” or the protection of the “good men.” But hey, they’re all men — which makes sorting out the good men from the bad tough, at least for committed Feminists.

So looking at this in leftist terms, the bad imperialists will force an accommodation by some small states (or peoples) to their advances — romantic or otherwise — and others to seek the protection of the good imperialists. But hey, they are all still imperialist.

The problem is, the left can’t tell who the good imperialists are. Recently Nial Ferguson’s “War of the World” was on PBS. I didn’t totally buy it, but at least he knew who the good imperialist were.

So obviously the answerer to your question is: I don’t know.

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:34 am 109. CPT. Charles:

Victor Davis Hanson drops the hammer:

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MDcwY2I4MjhjMTc0Y2Y4ZmJmMWNmNzJlOTA0Y2MxYjg=

For anyone with 5 brain cells still firing…Obama is sunk.

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:35 am 110. coisty:

The Russians have complete control over South Ossetia. If there has been massacres there then where’s the photographic proof?

You are correct about lack of evidence of atrocities in SO…thus far.

We know that in the year and a half after the bombing of Yugoslavia over Kosovo well-funded UN and EU investigations into mass killings turned up very little evidence to back the ridiculous US/Albanian claims.

Where is the American scepticism and curiosity regarding its Balkan adventure that led to thousands of innocent Serbs being killed?

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:36 am 111. DanM:

coisty,

Correct, if you are claiming that Russia’s statement that they are peace-keepers preventing genocide is true.

Now, you were saying “how easily ordinary Americans take in all this propoganda”? Blank slates? I assume that you have another viewpoint. Spell it out, you’ll get a fair discussion. Weighed with an American bias, of course. I Assume you agree that an American bias is ok?

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:42 am 112. RAH:

Russia was continuing to take losses see this post: There is some complaining on the Russian side regarding Israel. While virtually all media blames the Ukraine for every weapon system that kills a Russian soldier or any civilian, there is some sort of anti-vehicle weapon that locals are suggesting is Israeli in origin, and it is apparently lethal. We searched arms databases for exports and couldn’t come up with anything, it may not be Israeli. There is a rumor circulating that some 50 armored vehicles and tanks have been destroyed by this weapon. The Russian UN ambassador was reportedly asked about it in the press conference today. I have not seen a transcript, but he reportedly did not answer the question.
This is from http://informationdissemination.blogspot.com

I think that the Russians did not have clear goals. To punish the Georgian was one but then to occupy Georgia and take out Saakashvili’s government was another. But they did not think this out clearly. They did not think they would get that much resistance from the Georgians and the world take was Russia was indulging in adventurism and an oil grab.

Russia thought Georgia would fold quickly and they could impose their puppet leader. Bush’s reaction yesterday indicated that he would support Georgia and probably is pushing Turkey to do something.

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:49 am 113. sirius_sir:

Why would we not expect the Russians to assert their own version of a “Monroe Doctrine” in the Caucausus when we clearly will not tolerate Russian bombers or missiles in Cuba?

And yet we tolerate that Communist regime and respect Cuban sovereignty. The counter-argument of course is that once we did not, but that is
relatively ancient history. And the counter-argument to that argument is perhaps our first instinct was correct and we were right not to respect it all along.

It seems to me the Russian incursion will be justified by whatever conveniences can be found. My question is what keeps us from disposing of annoyances in our sphere–Chavez, for instance–in the manner the Russians seek to remove theirs? Is it weakness, a misplaced sense of decency; a little of both? Why should we not take the lesson, invade, and let the rest of the world scream bloody murder.

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:53 am 114. Sandy Salt:

CPT,

It was a great article and right on the money. This is a total win-win for Russia and there isn’t a darn thing the EU or America is going to end up doing about it.

With that said things are going to get a lot nastier in the region because Russia and there friends will have no real limits on them. Who really thinks that Iran is ever going to give up on getting the bomb? The EU and America are really in no position to oppose Iran and Russia on letting this happen. So what happens then? I can assure you Israel isn’t going to sit around to find out.

Aug 12, 2008 - 9:58 am 115. cjm:

chavez is a material lesson in why socialism fails. he is a necessary reminder to the other SA nations. don’t worry, his appointment with a lampost is waiting patiently.

last one to hit the tip jar is a russian.

Aug 12, 2008 - 10:00 am 116. sirius_sir:

McCain got positive feedback concerning our ties to Georgia. Cited the Georgian status as democratic ally and the fact of their help in Iraq.

Major applause line, though, seemed to come when–his voice rising–he said this crisis emphasized the importance of developing our own energy resources. Declared we need to stop exporting our wealth to “countries that don’t like us all that much.”
To growing applause and shouts he ended by demanding that Congress reconvene to address this pressing problem.

I do believe people are beginning to wake up.

Aug 12, 2008 - 10:01 am 117. jwillie:

Excellent map of guesstimated ground activity in Georgia: http://informationdissemination.blogspot.com/2008/08/georgia-update-new-map.html

Aug 12, 2008 - 10:06 am 118. sarkis:

offtopic to neolex re turkey:
ataturk did not build anti-islamic institutions strong enough nor durable enough. Turkish army (ctr-alt-del of turkish politics) may help in spite of Condi making noises that it’s “undemocratic” to depose a ruling party even as it moves towards sharia but the pressure of Islam is relentless and cracks are showing in Turkish secular institutions all over.

Haven’t looked at the latest news but it looks like Russia is exactly where it would want to be, controlling Georgia’s vitals without having to enter into more populated areas.
Their story will be that they moved in just far enough to assure non-aggression from Georgia.
Doubt Russia cares about its casualties much, its Finnish campaign achieved objectives (pushing back the border from Leningrad) at tremendous human cost but they have plenty where that came from.

Now they’ll start producing evidence of genocide and shaking it in NATO, UN, Haague etc.

Not clear to me that Russia is that much of a loser yet, even long-term, if they can spin the story well in the coming days/weeks.

Aug 12, 2008 - 10:09 am 119. Old Blue:

GREAT article, CPT Charles; thank you.

McCain on Georgia: http://www.reuters.com/news/video?videoId=88800&videoChannel=1

Someone should tell Sen Obama that Russia can veto anything at that UN. Not that we shouldn’t make noise there just for the record, but ostracism in other areas (is there merit to the G-8 ostracism?) would be more effective.

I agree with Hanson, though; we must examine how easily such tiny democracies can be swept under by Russia and how much we can ante up to “guarantee” their existence.

If we can’t do it, if we are unwilling or unable to foot the bill that our words will incur, then we have no business writing those checks.

We want to be the world’s hero, but we are not willing to put ourselves on the line for that.

Hell, no one wants to die for Kandahar, Kabul, Baghdad or Anbar, much less Tblisi.

Aug 12, 2008 - 10:10 am 120. sirius_sir:

Hell, no one wants to die for Kandahar, Kabul, Baghdad or Anbar, much less Tblisi.

Correct. But men will, strangely enough, fight and die for an idea. And I’m betting our idea trumps what the Russians are peddling.

Aug 12, 2008 - 10:16 am 121. Amphipolis:

Why aren’t we hearing about the grim toll of Russian casualties?

Aug 12, 2008 - 10:16 am 122. jwillie:

Russian diplomat to Belarus seem to be quite intoxicated by their Georgian adventure.

From Stratfor:
Moscow is “perplexed” by Belarus’ silence on the conflict between Russia and Georgia, Reuters reported Aug. 12, citing Russian Ambassador to Belarus Alexander Surikov. Belarus needs to express itself clearly on such issues, Surikov said, adding that Minsk has not even offered aid for people injured or displaced in South Ossetia. Russia has always supported and defended Belarus, he added. Belarus’ Foreign Ministry has called on both Russia and Georgia to halt fighting and begin peace talks.

Aug 12, 2008 - 10:16 am 123. DanM:

Condi speaking.. Called it the G7…

Aug 12, 2008 - 10:21 am 124. mark_b:

cjm:

“last one to hit the tip jar is a russian.”

not ‘it’.

Aug 12, 2008 - 10:23 am 125. Mike Sylwester:

Georgia’s decision to leave the Commonwealth of Independent States is just one more mindless, bratty temper tantrum.

The CIS would be a good forum where Georgia could raise this border issue and get a rather fair-minded hearing, since Russia is only one member and the rest of the members are non-Russian former Soviet Republics like Georgia.

The CIS exists because there is a need for such an institution to discuss, arbitrate and resolve many issues that are related to former membership in the Soviet Union. If all the CIS members follow Georgia’s bad example and quit the CIS, then the CIS inevitiably will be re-invented and re-constituted within the next ten years.

Aug 12, 2008 - 10:24 am 126. Eggplant:

CPT. Charles said:

“Victor Davis Hanson drops the hammer:

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MDcwY2I4MjhjMTc0Y2Y4ZmJmMWNmNzJlOTA0Y2MxYjg=

For anyone with 5 brain cells still firing…Obama is sunk.”

The requirement of having 5 brain cells firing excludes all moonbats and almost half of all independent voters (B. Hussein could still become President).

VDH’s article is brilliant. I was going to write this long winded comment, then read VDH’s article and said “why bother?”. I particularly liked VDH’s last paragraph:

“Instead, Europe — both western and eastern — along with the United States and the concerned former Soviet Republics need to sit down, conference, and plot exactly how these new democracies are to maintain their independence and autonomy in the next decade.Hopefully, they will reach the Franklinesque conclusion that “We must, indeed, all hang together, or most assuredly we shall all hang separately.””

More to the point, we need to figure out what to do about the Ukraine. The Ukraine is obviously the next victim scheduled for the Russian chopping block. We need to think about this very carefully:

I suspect that simply admitting the Ukraine to NATO isn’t good enough. Decades of Gramscian damage has taken its toll in Western Europe. Latvia is a member of NATO. I suspect if the Russians had invaded Latvia rather than Georgia, the Western European response would have been various politically correct comments followed by a Neville Chamberlain replay (the Europeans would have pissed straight up). Setting NATO up for immediate collapse by inviting the Ukraine to join is probably not a constructive approach. Perhaps a bilateral defense treaty between the Ukraine and the United States is the answer? If the US did that, we’d be showing our middle finger to Vladimir Putin in the clearest possible way. However would Putin call our bluff (we would be bluffing)? That’s the scary bit.

Putin has played the Georgian thing with extreme cunning (classic real politics that could have been described by Thucydides or Polybius). I like the bit about him attending the Olympics with George W. while the gambit went into execution (reads like something out of Frank Herbert’s “Dune”). Putin is going to play it equally smart concerning the Iranian nukes and the Ukraine. We need to be thinking clearly if we’re going to beat this guy (heaven help us if B. Hussein wins the election).

Aug 12, 2008 - 10:25 am 127. sirius_sir:

My question is what keeps us from disposing of annoyances in our sphere–Chavez, for instance–in the manner the Russians seek to remove theirs?

I meant the question and answer rhetorically, but on further thought I believe acting as the Russians are is an admission of weakness. I think they fear nothing more than a successful and happy, free populace next door. Why else demand Saakashvilli’s head?

In the long run we are probably better to patiently endure idiots like Castro and Chavez. Their reigns are the best argument we could make for our way of life, and sooner or later people living under tyranny come to know it, better than we alone could ever instruct them.

Aug 12, 2008 - 10:26 am 128. sirius_sir:

From the Hanson article: The Russians have sized up the moral bankruptcy of the Western Left. They know that half-a-million Europeans would turn out to damn their patron the United States for removing a dictator and fostering democracy, but not more than a half-dozen would do the same to criticize their long-time enemy from bombing a constitutional state.

Unfortunately idiocy isn’t confined to the Western Left. Did anyone else catch the opening of Michael Savage’s program last night? I listened only until I had to go outside and retch.

Aug 12, 2008 - 10:38 am 129. cjm:

nato was dead long before putin made his move. russian beligerence is a symptom, not a cause. there isn’t one european country worth spit, militarily. you can argue this point all you want, but the sad fact is europe is going to be taken over by someone, we just don’t know who. luckily they have a proud tradition of being good subjects, to fall back on.

Aug 12, 2008 - 10:39 am 130. sirius_sir:

That last bit was mine, not Hanson’s. LOL

Aug 12, 2008 - 10:39 am 131. art rogue:

Is there any place all of this is being discussed on talk radio or on the internet, other than the usual morons? I don’t need analysis from Rush or Hannity on these issues.

Aug 12, 2008 - 10:50 am 132. DanM:

Thanks Sirius_Sir,

My favorite VDH line from article:

“The Russians rightly expect Westerners to turn on themselves, rather than Moscow — and they won’t be disappointed. Imagine the morally equivalent fodder for liberal lament: We were unilateral in Iraq, so we can’t say Russia can’t do the same to Georgia. (As if removing a genocidal dictator is the same as attacking a democracy). We accepted Kosovo’s independence, so why not Ossetia’s? (As if the recent history of Serbia is analogous to Georgia’s.) We are still captive to neo-con fantasies about democracy, and so encouraged Georgia’s efforts that provoked the otherwise reasonable Russians (As if the problem in Ossetia is our principled support for democracy rather than appeasement of Russian dictatorship).”

Aug 12, 2008 - 11:00 am 133. oecumena:

What a wonderful display of mental cliches. Multitudes of patriots assuming gladly that violence was stopped by the almighty word of their Fearless President To Whom The Universe Bows; a train of Realpolititians arguing with an air (a vapour, in fact) of knowledge about an exact way in which oil was the real reason for this crisis; a long procession of Bear fearing racists that cannot stop trembling since the Crimean War; usual enthusiasts never growing up urging for more, more violence.

All back-patting each other in the perfect concert, making long term predictions of global scope, yet managing to forget –in less than a week– how the story they are discussing had started. Not that reality meant much for these proceeding that look much like an illustration to the French structuralist theory about the way ideology spreads through the language.

Aug 12, 2008 - 11:01 am 134. Eggplant:

Old Blue said:

“I think that Georgia needs to tiptoe a bit right now, even though they are still smarting from the hard slaps to the face and buttocks. Russia would love to have the legitimate pretext to finish the job and eventually swallow Georgia whole. …. We, and the Georgians, should tread lightly and avoid giving the Russians the pretext. … Stirring them further while they have a head of steam up and no back-pressure from their own public is a very dangerous position to be in for both Georgia and for NATO.”

I agree with Old Blue. It is in our interests for what’s left of Georgia to survive as an independent nation. I suspect that Putin has made the calculation that completely conquering Georgia represents greater cost than benefit.

Aug 12, 2008 - 11:13 am 135. DanM:

oecumena,

And your position on this?

Excellent prose, btw..

Aug 12, 2008 - 11:16 am 136. DanM:

Also from Eurasian Daily Monitor

Analyzing some possible Russian internal political strife between Medvedev and Putin.

Aug 12, 2008 - 11:25 am 137. nichevo:

No, what did Savage say?

Aug 12, 2008 - 11:26 am 138. nichevo:

Actually oecumena was quite incomprehensible. Racist? Aren’t Russians white?

Aug 12, 2008 - 11:29 am 139. cjm:

oecumena said the same thing all leftists say (and from the same orrifice). danm answered his mating call.

Aug 12, 2008 - 11:31 am 140. nichevo:

No, you can’t dismiss oecumena as a leftist. That would mean he was from the US or Western Europe and speaking against interest without knowing it. I feel sure that oecumena knows what he is doing. If you know what I mean.

Aug 12, 2008 - 11:34 am 141. ken anthony:

I believe the people of Georgia are going to fully support their president. They griped about the cost of the arms buildup, but nobody will be complaining about that issue anymore.

Since the Russian president has said that Russian citizens are an excuse for invasion, Georgia should demand all Russian’s in Georgia to be deported. That includes in both separatist regions. All Russian military, including bases, should be removed from Georgia.

This should be an uncompromised stance.

Russia has removed it’s mask. Let none be fooled again. Until Russia loses all it’s imperial ambitions (which may take centuries) they should be contained.

Georgia doesn’t need to become part of NATO. I’m sure they’d be willing to host a U.S. airbase keeping the skies safe from intrusion.

Now the Russian spin and our fifth columnists will be working furiously.

Russia MUST leave Georgia.

Aug 12, 2008 - 11:35 am 142. DanM:

Once more into the breach.. Sorry cjm….

Silovik – Putin’s “backers”.

More background into Putin’s geo-politics.

Aug 12, 2008 - 11:36 am 143. JBean:

nichevo –

We are all racists now.

There was an interesting bit of propaganda out of Russia the other day, about a “US adviser” that was captured in Osettia (untrue; they’re all accounted for per a report I saw today), but he was described as “dark skinned.” They also claimed there were “dark skinned” soldier among the Georgian “invaders” killed in Osettia.

Perhaps “dark skinned” is now Russian code for a US soldier? But that would be racist!

Aug 12, 2008 - 11:38 am 144. Al:

Could it be that Russia halted the war because it had achieved its objectives? Which, despite the hysteria, never included the conquest of Georgia?

Nah. The members of this echo chamber know that it’s impossible. And they are proud that they had managed to drive off all the alternative points of view.

As for the photographic evidence, here is some. (Warning: some explicit pictures.)
http://translate.google.com/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fmilkavkaz.net%2Fforum%2Fviewtopic.php%3Fp%3D12634&sl=ru&tl=en&hl=en&ie=UTF-8

(via the comments at http://www.russiablog.org)

Aug 12, 2008 - 11:45 am 145. cjm:

i do in fact know what you mean

Aug 12, 2008 - 11:51 am 146. poul:

how did this myth that georgia is “a vigorously budding democracy” got any roots? their government is every bit as fascistic as russian.

Aug 12, 2008 - 11:58 am 147. someone:

“Why is everyone so concerned about Turkey going Islamic? If history is any indication, the Islamic rule will be speedily deposed by the Turkish military, who have been on the vanguard of secularism since Ataturk.”

neolex: at least per a recent Spengler piece, many of the key secularist (and anti-Islamist) pillars in the Turkish military have been ousted under recent (and presumably trumped-up) charges of an “al Qaeda plot”.

Aug 12, 2008 - 12:03 pm 148. nichevo:

Al, what do you think that proves? All the gear is Russian and all the dead appear to be Georgian.

I almost don’t want to insist on proof – if the Russians need to massacre thousands of SOs or their own men to prove a point I’m sure they will.

I did page all the way thru those photos but not sure I can handle all the wild diversity of opinion that is doubtless to be found on russiablog.

Aug 12, 2008 - 12:05 pm 149. Dan:

I see the trolls have returned.

Aug 12, 2008 - 12:06 pm 150. cjm:

turkey defined its relationship with the west when they refused to let the 4th Infantry Division (iirc) transit permission. anything after that is just chin music.

Aug 12, 2008 - 12:06 pm 151. someone:

It may have been linked in a previous thread, but lgf found a rather amusingly enlightening piece on the “russiablog” proprietor.

Aug 12, 2008 - 12:08 pm 152. Lifeofthemind:

Posts like those of oecumena should be blocked and deleted by spam filters for the same reason that we protect our mailboxes against ads for ‘natural enhancement’ originating from a server in Florida or Russia. It would not surprise me if both originated from the same cubicle in the FSB. At the very least PJM should give us an Ignore feature so we can flag a poster of Soviet propaganda for blocking.

Aug 12, 2008 - 12:09 pm 153. Eggplant:

How many of you Russian disinformation guys have been assigned to Belmont Club? Are you part of the Russian military, government employees or private contractors? Do you have a group of blogs that you comment on or do you focus only on Belmont Club?

We are honored that you invest your time with us.

Have a nice day .

Aug 12, 2008 - 12:12 pm 154. Lifeofthemind:

cjm:
turkey defined its relationship with the west when they refused to let the 4th Infantry Division (iirc) transit permission. anything after that is just chin music.

That was France’s doing. We need to keep remembering that incident and use it to remind Sarkozy that actions have consequences but I’d give the Turks a chance to get back with the program. If we had gone in through the North they’d probably have fewer problems now with the Kurds.

Aug 12, 2008 - 12:14 pm 155. DanM:

Lifeofthemind,

Na.. Keeps the foil sharp.

Wretchard – This was a first for me.. I saw a “your comment is awaiting moderation”-like message and the comment never appeared..

Aug 12, 2008 - 12:17 pm 156. mika.:

The only ones to benefit from another Cold War are the Jihadis the war profiteers and the oil mafia.

Saakashvili is a complete moron, and soon pretty much everyone will come to see him as such, including his American handlers and his own constituency. Israel has already distanced itself from this moron.

Aug 12, 2008 - 12:20 pm 157. poul:

nichevo:

[i]“I almost don’t want to insist on proof – if the Russians need to massacre thousands of SOs or their own men to prove a point I’m sure they will.” [/i]

even georgians do not deny anymore that they bombed a city full of civilians with long range artillery – they just justify it by a “military need to destroy a bridge”. get your propaganda points straight.

seriously, why would americans support the georgian fascist regime over the russian fascist regime? because they’re “our fascists”?

Aug 12, 2008 - 12:25 pm 158. sirius_sir:

What did Savage say?

I can’t find a transcript, so from memory:

–After first admitting he didn’t know beans about the situation, the master analyst went on to say Bush unilaterly invaded Iraq, under false pretenses, because there were no WMD, yadda, yadda, yadda… (implication being, I guess, we have little moral basis to complain about the Russian incursion–completely missing THE moral basis in the one case and the mere pretense of one in the other)

–Russia was severely provoked (and presumably shouldn’t be judged harshly)

–Since Kosovo was allowed to seccede then why not, tit for tat, shouldn’t S. Ossetia?

All proclaimed in a blustery tone of omniscience.

Suffice to say I like Hanson’s take better.

Aug 12, 2008 - 12:27 pm 159. cjm:

turkey is a grownup country and must take responsibility for their actions. the price of their perfidy (imo) will be a united kurdistan. of course iraq will need to be compensated; a portion of southern iran will do nicely there, i think.

Aug 12, 2008 - 12:31 pm 160. Al:

“How did this myth that georgia is “a vigorously budding democracy” got any roots? their government is every bit as fascistic as russian.”

Great point. I mean, every single accusation that was leveled against Putin could be made against Saakashvili. From voter fraud, to shutting down opposition media, to jailing or exiling opposition leaders, to mysterious deaths of political opponents. The US shouldn’t have allied with Saakashvili’s regime anymore than should’ve allied with Putin’s.

Aug 12, 2008 - 12:32 pm 161. Dan:

Hey, guys! Come on over and look! Poul is losing his mind!

Aug 12, 2008 - 12:35 pm 162. JBean:

poul -

“even georgians do not deny anymore that they bombed a city full of civilians with long range artillery – they just justify it by a “military need to destroy a bridge”. get your propaganda points straight.”

Got a link? (A non-Russian one, that is. And not “Russia Today” either)

Aug 12, 2008 - 12:35 pm 163. neolex:

Saakshvili explains Georgian view on how the conflict started:

http://www.newsweek.com/id/152254/page/1

Aug 12, 2008 - 12:35 pm 164. Zim:

“The only ones to benefit from another Cold War are the Jihadis the war profiteers and the oil mafia.”

Well that definition fits Iran and Russia quite nicely I think.

Aug 12, 2008 - 12:36 pm 165. Al:

someone:
Here is the response to lgf’s “amusing post.”
http://www.russiablog.org/2008/08/war_in_georgia_mis-reading_ossetia.php

It actually a useful document because it contains the conflict’s chronology. It’s a very important point because in most mainstream accounts the chronology is either ignored or is glossed over by saying “no one knows how it all started.” No, we do know how it started.

Aug 12, 2008 - 12:38 pm 166. Eggplant:

A question for one of our Russian guests:

Does the FSB still execute political prisoners at Lubyanka or do they use a different prison?

Aug 12, 2008 - 12:39 pm 167. nichevo:

First, poul, you do not bomb a city with artillery, you shell it. Meanwhile, shelling does not mean they made hits on people. The most likely rule, well borne out through history, is to divide the Russian numbers by ten. In which case, this falls safely under the heading of collateral damage. Never mind the Russians’ shall we say heavy-handedness in Chechnya – they killed more friendlies at the Moscow opera and at Beslan.

Meanwhile, SOs were setting IEDs to blow up Georgian policemen. A military response to such acts is not out of the question.

Second, where are the bodies? I don’t see any bodies. Except murdered Georgian soldiers and one guy of indeterminate origin with the top of his head blown off. No Russian dead, no Ossetians that I can see.

Third, if there was any proof of these assertions, the Russians would have allowed the world media to cover it, instead of relentlessly restricting their access.

I don’t know how fascist or otherwise Georgia is. I didn’t even call Russia fascist. I know, I know, it is unkind to make fun of your low intelligence (or is it just poor English skills) with these distinctions.

But if you are wondering why Russia should be opposed, the answer is that you don’t get a Near Abroad. You don’t get to monopolize the energy supplies of Europe. You don’t want to keep playing the Great Game, and if you do, it is necessary that you lose.

You made demands on Georgia. Now let me make some demands on you, or rather suggestions.

Stay within the Rus, and if anyone wants out, let them go – you can’t blame them.

Stop murdering journalists and robbing industrialists and acting like a one-party state run by savages.

Stop cooperating with nations like Iran.

Move the greatest part of your armies to the Chinese border where they may actually be needed, and stop selling the Chinese weapons and technology. Nobody is going to invade you.

Try and act like a member of the family of nations.

Aug 12, 2008 - 12:40 pm 168. neolex:

Politics makes strange bedfellows. In this case, American “patriots” and Russian PR machine, both making claims about the drawbacks of Saakashvhili or the Georgian response to the shelling of their villages. The former because they can’t otherwise justify American non-involvement, the latter because they want American non-involvement.

Aug 12, 2008 - 12:41 pm 169. poul:

Dan, up yours.
Jbean, is WSJ enough not-russian for ya?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121841192991628317.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

“Mr. Saakashvili said he didn’t regret his actions. He dismissed Russian accusations of genocide and war crimes as propaganda and insisted that a general perception that he had provoked Russia by launching an all-out attack on South Ossetia’s capital, Tskhinvali, was untrue.

Once a heavy assault on Georgian positions began Thursday, the news that 150 Russian tanks were approaching the region had forced him to act. “Our military said the only option we had was to use long-range artillery and move up to destroy the bridge” above Tskhinvali, Mr. Saakashvili said.”

Aug 12, 2008 - 12:41 pm 170. cjm:

nichevo: well said.

neolex: the american far right is a nursing home full of cranks. i note that you correctly used quotation marks around the word ‘patriot’ to denote their selfish and childish view of the world.

Aug 12, 2008 - 12:46 pm 171. neolex:

LOL @ Eggplant

Aug 12, 2008 - 12:50 pm 172. JBean:

neolex:

From the Newsweek interview:

“The fact that we can shoot down planes speaks for itself. We shot down 10 Su-27s–this is more warplanes than the Russians lost in the whole Chechen war.”

There was an article in Aviation Week that speculated that this was the case. Link

Aug 12, 2008 - 12:52 pm 173. cjm:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. oil demand during the first half of 2008 fell by an average 800,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared with the same period a year ago, the biggest volume decline in 26 years, the Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday.
——————————————————

and that’s without even trying. vladmir putin, czar of demand destruction. “all of your hummers are belong to us!” — VP

Aug 12, 2008 - 12:53 pm 174. poul:

nichevo,

“you do not bomb a city with artillery, you shell it.”

thank you for the lesson in english. does it somehow affect the substance of the discussion?

“Meanwhile, shelling does not mean they made hits on people.”

except this is how georgians explain massive destruction of civilian infrastructure and deaths of civilians in ossetia.

“Meanwhile, SOs were setting IEDs to blow up Georgian policemen. A military response to such acts is not out of the question.”

except that they had any change to do that only after georgia started its military assault against ossetia, which they had no business to do to begin with. but i will try not to denigrate your low intelligence and poor grasp at chronology.

“Second, where are the bodies? I don’t see any bodies. ”
“Third, if there was any proof of these assertions, the Russians would have allowed the world media to cover it, instead of relentlessly restricting their access.”

they are too busy ethnically cleansing georgians off the occupied areas to allow that.

however, even a man of your intelligence would assume that if even georgians are trying to explain it away instead of outright denying it, the proof is ample and forthcoming.

“I don’t know how fascist or otherwise Georgia is. I didn’t even call Russia fascist. ”

no, you didn’t. i did. it’s because unlike you, i am familiar with the situation in both countries.

“You made demands on Georgia. Now let me make some demands on you, or rather suggestions.”

you are posting basing on false assumption that i have anything to do with russian government of politics. i am not pro russian. i am anti-idiotarian and anti-fascist.

“Stay within the Rus, and if anyone wants out, let them go – you can’t blame them.
Stop murdering journalists and robbing industrialists and acting like a one-party state run by savages. Stop cooperating with nations like Iran. Move the greatest part of your armies to the Chinese border where they may actually be needed, and stop selling the Chinese weapons and technology. Nobody is going to invade you.Try and act like a member of the family of nations.”

totally agree. see, it was easy. now since you are able to operate a computer, you should be able to make a simple conclusion that almost all of it applies to georgia as well. now try to make this mental effort, as straining as it might be for you.

Aug 12, 2008 - 12:55 pm 175. mika.:

All good points nichevo. Except that those playing the Great Game (also known as Free Trade) are and were mostly Anglos. Socialize the costs, privatize the profits.

Aug 12, 2008 - 12:57 pm 176. oecumena:

And immediately we get an answer. One is left to wonder what unknown sense is used to `feel’ (_surely_!) that one is not a `leftist,’ but an enemy undercover. _Surely_ the same that allowed other inquisitive minds of less than a century ago to easily tell `Right-trotskist’ from ‘Bukharenets.’ An unsurmountable habit of a class consciousness, as usual coupled with a hue and cry to gag and ban.

Dear nichevo (`Klaatu barada nikto!’ ), studying Nazi racist theories readily reveals that the racism within `White’ as you have durst to put it race is well possible.

DanM, I believe that the first thing one has to do to form an opinion on anything is to try to think rationally. Even though duck and cover epoch conditioned people to see Russia as an unconditional evil, using mythology as a basis for analysis is not going to advance values one is standing up for. It is no good to assume that Russians either somehow mysteriously tricked Georgia to start an offensive in SO right during Olympics, or that they started aggression first to which Georgia responded on the last Thursday without ever mentioning the former. It is no good, because there are much simpler explanations, and ignoring then is defying reason in favor of ideology. It’s equally not good to claim that answer to Russia’s goal in Georgia is given by taking the city of Gori and persisting in that conclusion even after its antecedent was found to be contrafactual.

Abandoning logic is not a hallmark of the Western thought, yet it is understandably human.

Aug 12, 2008 - 12:58 pm 177. JBean:

poul:

“Once a heavy assault on Georgian positions began Thursday, the news that 150 Russian tanks were approaching the region had forced him to act. “Our military said the only option we had was to use long-range artillery and move up to destroy the bridge” above Tskhinvali, Mr. Saakashvili said.”

Exactly how is that an admission that the Georgians bombed “a city full of civilians?”

Aug 12, 2008 - 1:00 pm 178. Calling on hypocrats:

I think Russia should NOT take lessons from those who were killing Serbs and destroying Serbia’s infrastructure in 1999.
NATO’s communiqué about the excessive use of force in the South Ossetia makes Moscow remember the operation of the Alliance against Serbia. Russia should not listen to such assessments from this military bloc, because it would then have to remind of the disproportionate use of force against the people and armed forces of Serbia, when NATO tried to give Serbs ‘joys of democracy’ through bombardment of Belgrade, destruction of Serbian towns, bridges and infrastructure.

In 1999, NATO assessed that Slobodan Milosevic’s policy is bad towards Kosovo-Metohija Albanians, but it decided not to bomb only the Serb troops in Kosovo, but the entire territory of Serbia, including bridges, hospitals, TV stations and state institutions… Thousands of Serbian civilians were killed in those attacks”, Rogozin said.

That is the major difference between NATO and Russia, which limited its actions in Georgia strictly to military targets. I’m horrified when I hear those who were silent before thousands of Serbian victims in 1999 giving themselves right to deliver moral lessons now… They’ll never have that right.

On google you can found for yourself a picture of NATO’s use of ‘excessive force’ in Yugoslavia in 1999: the shameful bombing of a passenger train at Grdelica Gorge which killed 14 civilians. Remember it, and all the other innocent victims of NATO’s aggression, next time you hear a spokesperson from that organisation criticise others for using ‘excessive force’.

Aug 12, 2008 - 1:02 pm 179. Peterike:

oecumena: Not that reality meant much for these proceeding that look much like an illustration to the French structuralist theory about the way ideology spreads through the language.

Is that you Benj??

Aug 12, 2008 - 1:03 pm 180. poul:

JBean

Tskhinvali is the city they bombed. of, if you prefer, shelled.

Aug 12, 2008 - 1:03 pm 181. neolex:

In encourage all the proponents of rational thinking and logic, who are currently making completely logically irrelevant attempts to defend Russia, to read the transcript of the first UNSC meeting on Georgia issue and specifically the statements made by Georgian and Russian representatives.

http://daccess-ods.un.org/access.nsf/Get?Open&DS=S/PV.5952&Lang=E

Aug 12, 2008 - 1:05 pm 182. JBean:

Paol –

“Tskhinvali is the city they bombed”

No Paol, the tactical target was the bridge; not civilians. Were the Georgians supposed to sit there and let 150 Russian tanks come across? I guess in your world, they should have, because we all know how Russia is so very restrained in warfare, don’t we? /sarc

Aug 12, 2008 - 1:08 pm 183. empulse:

Fighting over Georgia… in quotes

“The Russian army is trying to enforce peace, and to do that, we have to attack the Georgian military,” which is shelling South Ossetian villages and towns from outside the region’s nominal border, Sergei Ivanov, Russia’s deputy prime minister, said on CNN.

Are there any additional reasons, usually ones denied?

“We don’t want regime change in Tbilisi. Our goal is the peaceful settlement of the conflict,” said Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Boris Malakhov. “However, the fate of Saakashvili is in the hands of his own people.”

“I’d like to say straightaway that regime change is an American expression. We do not use such an expression. But sometimes there are occasions, and we know from history, that there are different leaders who come to power, either democratically or semi-democratically, and they become an obstacle,” says Ambassador Vitaly Churkin.

Could a reverse-Milosevic await Saakashvili…

“We have to stop the genocide,” said Sergei Ivanov, Russia’s deputy prime minister.

Saakashvili aside, but for now…

Georgian collapse “certainly raised concerns about Georgia’s reliability as a transit route” says Julian Lee, a specialist on the Caspian at the Centre for Global Energy Studies in London so, as a result of Russia’s proximity bombing of the pipeline, British Petroleum duly closed down the pipeline it operates in Georgia, days after having BPs CEO driven out of Russia and the defeated UKs Prime Minister Gordon Brown can only wield a rhetorical scimitar that “Russia’s military actions would damage its relations with other countries.”

Such as which?

“This is clearly part of a bigger game, which is the expansion of NATO,” Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini said. “Today Georgia’s entry [into NATO] is more complicated,” he said. “It doesn’t behoove us to pit ourselves against Russia. Russia is a strategic partner.”

Could Sarkozy’s Moscow visit confirm this?

“I think what you have confirmed here is good news,” that Russia stopped the opertions. “A cease-fire now has to take shape… We must draw up a rapid calendar so that each side can go back to the positions of before the crisis.”

Is Russia backward looking as Sarkozy?

“I cannot see us accepting this French draft of the resolution,” says Vitaly Churkin although Russia’s deputy chief of General Staff, Col.-Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn suggested that “some sort of international mediation effort to watch how both sides comply with a cease-fire agreement” is in the offing.

So who is to blame?

“It was Germany that led the opposition …for Georgia… not [to] be allowed to enter NATO. We presumably won’t know for some time what the precise calculations were inside the Kremlin when it came to the decision to send troops into Georgia, but one can surely assume that the German position did nothing to discourage Russia’s plans,” write Gary Schmitt, director of the American Enterprise Institute’s program on advanced strategic studies and Mauro Lorenzo, an AEI resident fellow.

However, unnamed sources paraphrased in the media say that “many officials in the U.S. government who have worked on the Russia relationship in recent years said, President Bush lionized Mr. Saakashvili as a model for democracy in the region to a point that the Georgian leader may have held unrealistic expectations about the amount of support he might receive from the U.S. and the West.”

“The Bush administration didn’t in any way encourage Saakashvili’s move against the Russians, but it didn’t do enough to rein him in,” said Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “It encouraged the creation of a Georgian president who was too big for his britches.”

Aug 12, 2008 - 1:08 pm 184. whiskey:

I think it’s significant that Medvedev announced this, not Putin.

I have been impressed by the way in which Russia fought: like the US, high-tempo, combined arms, very fast, and in a very “un-Russian” way. This is not Zhukov moving millions of men on a broad front. Or Chuikov embracing the German Army in a brutal, hand-to-hand urban combat. It is something entirely new for Russia, and as Wretchard says, difficult.

It is quite likely they need to pause to resupply, bring in fresh troops, and come up with a plan to cross the river.

So far, Putin’s objective has not been reached: control over the pipeline and increasing the world price of oil north of $145 a barrel.

Does anyone think, seriously, that Putin would launch such a major military invasion on behalf of S. Ossetia, or Russian nationalism, or flags waving, or anything like that? Please. Putin doesn’t care about the Georgian President, or liberty and democracy, one way or another. High oil prices and the ability to pay his thugs every month, yes.

Putin and Russia don’t care about the Stock Market. They’ve chased off foreign direct investment and seized joint venture after joint venture to take the cash and pay their thugs. The Russian Stock Market BEFORE Georgian Adventures fell to 22% of it’s value from the prior year! That Russia cares at all about world opinion is a laughable fantasy out of Obama. That nations are afraid of Putin is in the eyes of Russians, a good thing.

Likely, an operational pause, encirclement of the Georgian Army and wiping it out (you KNOW the Russian generals lust for that), THEN Putin achieving his War Aims: control over the Pipeline (and likely dismantling it) and world oil prices go over $145 a barrel.

Putin didn’t spend all this cash (which could have gone to his thugs) just to achieve a “moral victory.” He needs oil high and the pipeline in ruins. Which are in fact, related and the same thing. He won’t stop until he gets it: just ask the widow of Vladimir Litvinenko.

Aug 12, 2008 - 1:08 pm 185. poul:

here’s eyewitness accounts in “guardian”. try to convince yourself that it’s all manufactured by kgb propaganda.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/aug/10/georgia.russia5

“My relatives told me Georgian soldiers burnt to death a family of seven people in their apartment. An 18-year-old boy who climbed out into the street for a few moments was shot dead by a sniper.
…
“We sat for four days in a cellar, without food and water,” she said. “When we came out we saw the whole street had burnt down. The city was gone – only ruins were left. It was a slaughter. First they bombed and shelled us. Then the tanks came in and levelled the city to the ground.”
…
“When the firing died down I ran out to the home of my relatives on a different street,” she said. “I saw that the city hospital was completed destroyed, and around it lay corpses and injured people, a lot of them. And the injured lay there dying for three days because no one could get to them.”

etc.

Aug 12, 2008 - 1:10 pm 186. neolex:

NATO actions against Serbia do make their criticism of current Russian engagement hypocritical, however, IT DOES NOT JUSTIFY RUSSIAN ACTIONS. Moreover, Russia is being hypocritical now, as compared against their statements on Serbia, as such NATOs hypocrisy cannot be used to defend Russian actions.

Aug 12, 2008 - 1:12 pm 187. fred:

“poul”

The Guardian does not have a lot of credibility with us over here. It’s a Leftist rag. Socialists stick up for each other. Now move along, you’ve done your duty for your masters and dropped the turds like a good boy. Collect your pay and move on.

Aug 12, 2008 - 1:18 pm 188. empulse:

Neolex, nice try justifying it.

Russia is criticized today by those who killed Serbs in 1999!

In the media war accompanying in the West the conflict in South Ossetia there are double standards which this part of the international community described the situation during the wars in former Yugoslavia. the criminal decision of the Georgian authorities to initiate a military campaign against their own citizens in South Ossetia should be viewed in the same manner as other cases of violation of international law and the UN Charter such as the air strike against Serbia in 1999, unilateral proclamation and recognition of Kosovo’s independence.

the West doesn’t have a way of exerting pressure on Russia and stopping the conflict in Georgia, because Moscow has a strong argument – the fact that the West imposes recognition of Kosovo.The Czech diplomat warned in an editorial in Pravo that in the Caucuses, just as in the Balkans, there is not much sense at present in dealing with historical circumstances.

Aug 12, 2008 - 1:21 pm 189. cjm:

whiskey: what documented basis for your lavish praise do you have? because by my reckoning the russians had their asses handed to them and are now looking for a way out.

Aug 12, 2008 - 1:22 pm 190. JBean:

paol –

“here’s eyewitness accounts in “guardian””

Ha! Al-Guardian? The most left-leaning paper in Britain? Defender of all who would destroy freedom?

Try again.

(Hint: Try the NY Times: they’re usually good for a West-bashing.)

Aug 12, 2008 - 1:23 pm 191. Hollis:

Saakashvili started thinking he could gobble up any secessionist region—like, say, South Ossetia. But there are big differences he was forgetting—like the fact that South Ossetia isn’t Georgian, has a border with Russia, and is linked up with North Ossetia just across that border. The road from Russia to South Ossetia is pretty fragile as a line of supply; it goes through the Roki Tunnel, a mountain tunnel at an altitude of 10,000 feet. I have to wonder why the Georgian air force—and it’s a good one by all accounts—didn’t have as its first mission in the war the total zapping of the South Ossetian exit of that tunnel. Or if you don’t trust the flyboys, send in your special forces with a few backpacks full of HE. There are a lot of ways to cripple a tunnel. Hell, do it low-tech: drive a fuel truck in there, with a car following, jackknife the truck halfway through with a remote control or timing fuse—truck driver gets out and strolls to the car, one fast U-turn and you’re out and back in Georgia, just in time to see a ball of flame erupt from the tunnel exit. And rebuilding a tunnel way up in the mountains is not an easy or a fast job. Sure, the Russians could resupply by air, but that’s a much, much tougher job and would at least slow down the inevitable. Weird, then, that as far as I know the Georgians didn’t even try to blast that tunnel. I don’t go in for this kind of long-distance micromanaging of warfare, because there’s usually a good reason on the ground for tactical decisions; it’s the strategic decisions that are really crazy most of the time. But this one I just don’t get.

Most likely the Georgians just thought the Russians wouldn’t react. They were doing something they learned from Bush and Cheney: sticking to best-case scenarios, positive thinking. The Georgian plan was classic shock’n’awe with no hard, grown-up thinking about the long term. Their shiny new army would go in, zap the South Ossetians while they were on a peace hangover (the worst kind), and then…uh, they’d be welcomed as liberators? Sure, just like we were in Iraq. Man, you pay a price for believing in Bush. The Georgians did. They thought he’d help. And I just saw the little creep on TV, sitting in the stands watching the US-China basketball game. (Weird game—the Chinese were taller, muscled the boards inside but couldn’t shoot from outside. Not what you expect from foreign b-ball teams at all.) I didn’t even recognize Bush at first, just wondered why they kept doing close-ups of this guy who looked like Hank Hill’s legless dad up in the stands. Then they said it was the Prez. They talk about people “growing in office”; well, he shrunk.

And the more he shrinks, the more you pay for believing in him. The Georgians were naïve because they were so happy to get out from the Soviets, the Russians’ old enemy, the US, must be paradise. So they did their apple-polishing best to be the perfect obedient little ally. Then we’d let them into NATO and carpet-bomb them with SUVs and ipods.

Their part of the deal was simple: they sent troops to Iraq. First a contingent of 850, then a surprisingly huge 2000 men. When you consider the population of Georgia is less than five million, that’s a lot of troops. In fact, Georgia is the third-biggest contributor to the “Coalition of the Willing,” after the US and Britain.

You might be thinking, Wow, not a good time to have so many of your best troops in Iraq, huh? Well, that’s true and it goes for a lot of countries—like us, for instance—but at least we’re not facing a Russian invasion. The Georgians are so panicked they just announced they’re sending half their Iraqi force home, and could the USAF please give’em a lift?

We’ll probably give them a ride, but that’s about all we can do. We’ve already done plenty, not because we love Georgians but to counterbalance the Russian influence down where the new oil pipeline’s staked out. The biggest American aid project was the GTEP, “Georgia Train and Equip” project ($64 million). It featured 200 Special Forces instructors teaching fine Georgia boys all the lessons the US Army’s learned recently. Now here’s the joke—and military history is just one long series of mean jokes. We were stressing counterinsurgency skills: small-unit cohesion, marksmanship, intelligence. The idea was to keep Georgia safe from Chechens or other Muslim loonies infiltrating through the Pankisi Gorge in NE Georgia. And we did a good job. The Georgian Army pacified the Pankisi in classic Green-Beret style. The punch line is, the Georgians got so cocky from that success, and from their lovefest with the Bushies in DC, that they thought they could take on anybody. What they’re in the process of finding out is that a light-infantry CI force like the one we gave them isn’t much use when a gigantic Russian armored force has just rolled across your border.

The American military’s response so far has been all talk, and pretty damn stupid talk at that. A Pentagon spokes-thingy called Russia’s response “disproportionate.” What the Hell are they talking about? They’ve been watching too many cop shows. Cops have this doctrine of “minimum necessary force,” not that they actually operate that way unless there are video cameras around. Armies never, ever had that policy, because it’s a good way to get your troops killed needlessly. The whole idea in war is to fight as unfairly and disproportionately as possible. If you’ve got it, you use it. Thank God we never fought “proportionately” in Viet Nam. The French tried that, because they never had much of an air force, and got wiped out. By the time the French withdrew from Indochina, their Lefty Prime Minister, Mendes-France, made a big show of promising peace withing 30 days of taking office—and his commanders in Indochina said privately, “I don’t think we can hold out that long.” That’s what fighting “proportionately” gets you: Dien Bien Phu.

If you want a translation, luckily I speak fluent Pentagon. So what “disproportionate” means is—well, imagine that you’re watching some little hanger-on who tags along with you get his ass whipped by a bully, and you say, “That’s inappropriate!” I mean, instead of actually helping him. That’s what “disproportionate” means from the Pentagon: “We’re not going to lift a finger to help you, but hey, we’re with you in spirit, little buddy!”

The quickest way to see who’s winning in any war is to see who asks first for a ceasefire. And this time it was the Georgians. Once it was clear the Russians were going to back the South Ossetians, the war was over. Even Georgians were saying, “To fight Russia by ourselves is insane.” Which means they thought Russia wouldn’t back its allies. Not a bad bet; Russia has a long, unpredictable history of screwing its allies—but not all the time. The Georgians should know better than anybody that once in a while, the Russians actually come through, because it was Russian troops who saved Georgia from a Persian invasion in 1805, at the battle of Zagam. Of course the Russians had let the Persians sack Tbilisi just ten years earlier without helping. That’s the thing: the bastards are unpredictable. You can’t even count on them to betray their friends (though it’s the safer bet, most of the time, sort of like 6:5 odds).

This time, the Russians came through. For lots of reasons, starting with the fact that Bush is weak and they know it; that the US is all tied up in that crap Iraq war and can’t do shit; and most of all, because Kosovo just declared independence from Serbia, an old Russian ally. It’s tit for tat time, with Kosovo as the tit and South Ossetia as the tat. The way Putin sees it, if we can mess with his allies and let little ethnic enclaves like Kosovo declare independence, then the Russians can do the same with our allies, especially naïve idiotic allies like Georgia.

Luckily, South Ossetia doesn’t matter that much. I’m just being honest here. In a year nobody will care much who runs that little glob of territory. What’s more serious is that another, bigger and more strategic chunk of Georgia called Abkhazia, on the Black Sea, is taking the opportunity to boot out the last Georgian troops on its territory. Georgia may lose almost all its coastline, but then the Georgians were always an inland people anyway, living along river valleys, not great sailors.

What’s happening to Georgia here is like the teeny-tiny version of Germany in the twentieth century: overplay your hand and you lose everything. So if you’re a Georgian nationalist, this war is a tragedy; if you’re a Russian or Ossetian nationalist, it’s a triumph, a victory for justice, whatever. To the rest of us, it’s just kind of fun to watch. And damn, this one has been a LOT of fun! The videos that came out of it! You know, DVD is the best thing to happen to war in a long time. All the fun, none of the screaming agony—it’s war as Diet Coke.

See, this is the war that I used to see in the paintings commissioned by Defense contractors in Aviation Week and AFJ: a war between two conventional armies, both using air forces and armored columns, in pine-forested terrain. That was what those pictures showed every time, with a highlighted closeup of the weapon they were selling homing in on a Warsaw Pact convoy coming through a German pine forest. Of course, a real NATO/Warsaw Pact war would never, ever have happened that way. It would have gone nuclear in an hour or less, which both sides knew, which is why it never happened. So all that beautiful weaponry was kind of a farce, if it was only going to be used in the Fulda Gap. But damn, God is good, because here it all is, in the same kind of terrain, all your favorite old images: Russian-made tanks burning, a Soviet-model fighter-bomber falling from the sky in pieces, troops in Russian camo fighting other troops, also in Russian camo, in a skirmish by some dilapidated country shack.

Aug 12, 2008 - 1:27 pm 192. neolex:

@fred

As much as I disagree with Poul, it is a logical fallacy to dismiss information because the source is disliked (kind of a reverse of shooting the messenger). By that logic, any information that is coming from sources that dont share one’s world view can be immediately dismissed, and a pseudo-reality formed. The current US administration has been afflicted by this for a while now.

Having said that, the article, Poul, does not provide any support to your claims. There is no timeline to be traced in it, and most likely, given the date and other clues, things that people describe have occurred while Russians were already in the country. In any war, where heavy fighting is involved, especially with ethnic component, this is at best mild.

Aug 12, 2008 - 1:27 pm 193. oecumena:

JBean:

`No Paol, the tactical target was the bridge; not civilians. Were the Georgians supposed to sit there and let 150 Russian tanks come across?’

It seems you assume that Russian tanks were rolling into Georgia when shelling of the Tskhinvali started, i.e., at early morning August 8. Can you cite any reference for that?

Aug 12, 2008 - 1:30 pm 194. JBean:

Hollis –

Yawn. Do you actually think people read posts that long and tedious? Think again.

Aug 12, 2008 - 1:33 pm 195. neolex:

@ empulse

If you postulate that Russian actions are justifiable because NATO did the same thing in Serbia, it then logically follows that NATO was justified in going into Serbia (smth I disagree with). As you seem to fail in basic logic, let me break it down:

NATO actions in Serbia were wrong AND Russian actions in Georgia are wrong

OR

NATO actions in Serbia were right AND Russian actions in Georgia are right

Anything else, leads to a tautology: a situation where you accuse someone of double-standards by utilizing double-standards (smth Russia is doing now).

Aug 12, 2008 - 1:35 pm 196. someone:

Who’s the idiot doing copypasta from the excruciatingly dull exile site?

Aug 12, 2008 - 1:36 pm 197. cjm:

good god, how did the unabomber manifesto get posted here?!

Aug 12, 2008 - 1:37 pm 198. someone:

Jbean: He didn’t even write it.

Aug 12, 2008 - 1:37 pm 199. neolex:

It seems that FSB information warfare operations has tagged this board for auto-posting.

Aug 12, 2008 - 1:42 pm 200. poul:

neolex,

the timeline is pretty clear – eyewitnesses describe georgian tanks leveling the houses. this could happen only *before* russian tanks moved in.

also:

“a situation where you accuse someone of double-standards by utilizing double-standards (smth Russia is doing now).”

what stops russians from saying “oops, we were wrong about kosovo, it deserved independence. and so is osetia”.

try to answer that

Aug 12, 2008 - 1:45 pm 201. Aether:

Poul,

I’m not clear on a some of the reports regarding the destruction of Tskhinvali. And am not familiar with the city or terrain

It is reported in the WSJ and Guardian that a bridge was targetted by the Georgians, with the intention of stopping a Russian armored column, and that the Georgians destroyed Tskhinvali in the process, with an implication that it was a deliberate action.

Where is this bridge in Relation to Tskhinvali? How many kilometers is the bridge from downtown Tskhinvali?

Where was the Georgian artillery in relation to the bridge and to Tskhinvali?

Where were the Russian column in relation to the bridge, Tskhinvali and the Georgian artillery?

It has also been reported that the Georgians inhabited Tskhinvali overnight, between August 8-9.

Was there fighting during that time between the Georgians and the Ossetians/Russians?

If not, Is it your contention that the Russian Army and Air Force did not attack the Georgian forces in Tskhinvali? ever?

Did *any* Russian armaments fall on Tskhinvali?

Aether

Aug 12, 2008 - 1:46 pm 202. Cannoneer No. 4:

That some South Ossetians hold Russian passports no more equip Russia morally to move the entire 58th army into Georgia than concern about migrant conditions might justify a Mexican penetration into Texas. The legal reality is that the international community considers both South Ossetia and Abkhazia as part of Georgia.

Clumsy Russia

Aug 12, 2008 - 1:57 pm 203. nichevo:

BTW, you can tell that Hollis is an American leftist, or copy-and-pasting from one. The real Russian infiltrators are much better at making their point, and have much higher intelligence. This is probably from that War Nerd, who is Adam Gadahn’s cousin and/or butt-buddy.

Aug 12, 2008 - 1:59 pm 204. cjm:

adam gadhan is gadead now.

Aug 12, 2008 - 2:00 pm 205. neolex:

@ poul

Well, let me white that smiley face from your post.

1) “We sat for four days in a cellar, without food and water,” – this suggests that they were leaving the area AFTER Russians engaged Georgians there. All other people are from the same group. Hence, this is not a valid support for your claims, as it is not clear what was going on in the theather, and people caught in the crossfire would still blame Georgians. I’m sure you could find some eyewitness accounts from the night of Georgian invasion, but this is not it, therefore, sir, you fail.

2) Russia hasn’t done that, thus you epically fail by trying to use a hypothetical. What if US apologized for Kosovo, and then sent CSGs into Black Sea?

Now to answer your question (I will not simply take your challenge, but smack you repeatedly over the head with you ignorant little question).

Russia will not do that because:

1) It is filled with patchwork of Regions especially in the Caucus, who desire to be independent, or at least highly autonomous.

2) The Chinese population in Eastern Russia and Siberia is increasing dramatically. Very soon China would be doing a little “peacekeeping operation”. Admitting that ethnicities deserve independence (that they were wrong about Kosovo) is a suicide for Russia.

Aug 12, 2008 - 2:02 pm 206. poul:

JBean, eyewitness accounts are eyewitness accounts, even coming from guardian. but you can easily google plenty of similar stuff from other sources – that is, if you were interested in truth, not in preserving your ideological blinders. you guys are as bad at it as obamaniacs, seriously.
for example:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4516005.ece

Aug 12, 2008 - 2:03 pm 207. whiskey:

I’ll note that Fox News reports ongoing bombing attacks around Tbilsi by Russian air, and various probing attacks.

This seems an operational pause.

But really, what is remarkable is how un-Russian the Russians are fighting. Not like Grozny. But fast, rapid tempo, using speed to kill. They’ve learned from the US, considerably. Perhaps Georgia will be their laboratory as Spain was for Hitler (and Stalin). Tactics and weapons explored at a relatively low risk.

IIRC, the War Nerd predicted two years ago that wars by industrialized countries was passe because human nature had “evolved.” And that also, insurgencies were “unstoppable.” Both laughable assertions proven wrong.

Aug 12, 2008 - 2:07 pm 208. cjm:

russia wants to die. it has lost the great race, and waits only for the long sleep. they won’t be missed.

Aug 12, 2008 - 2:08 pm 209. mika.:

cjm: russia wants to die. it has lost the great race,..

The great race to where?

Aug 12, 2008 - 2:10 pm 210. Henry:

How South Ossetia is like Kosovo: “Some of the rhetoric that the U.S. and NATO bandied about in 1999 to justify the Kosovo operation may be coming back to haunt us in the wake of the 2008 Ossetian war,” writes Nikolas K. Gvosdev, the editor of The National Interest, on his Washington Realist blog. He explains:

Russia has claimed that its mandate from the 1992 Sochi agreement to “keep the peace” gives it the right to take whatever measures are necessary to secure South Ossetia. But this can be interpreted to mean that Russia has the right to strike targets in Georgia proper on the grounds that Georgia’s warfighting abilities must be degraded — similar to the NATO rationale in 1999 for hitting targets in Serbia itself, not just Serbian units in Kosovo.

Russia is also utilizing the “loss of sovereignty” argument that was advanced against Serbia in 1999 — that Georgia’s attack on South Ossetia which seemed to target civilians has produced such a negative reaction among Ossetians who claim they can no longer live under Georgian rule. So, the argument is that Tbilisi has forfeited its right to exercise sovereignty over South Ossetia just as Serbia supposedly lost its sovereign rights over Kosovo.

And whether the West, and particularly the U.S., buys this or not is no longer the issue. Moscow doesn’t seem to care whether we accept these comparisons, just as we didn’t care about Moscow’s opinion on Kosovo final status. We can either try to fight it — which we don’t seem to want to do — or we will have to accept it de facto — which is where things seem to be headed, at least given the tenor of the French peace mission, which wants a restoration of the August 6 status quo — which for all intents and purposes is a Russian victory and a Georgian defeat.

Aug 12, 2008 - 2:14 pm 211. JBean:

Paol — “It seems you assume that Russian tanks were rolling into Georgia when shelling of the Tskhinvali started, i.e., at early morning August 8. Can you cite any reference for that?”

Since you threw your contention back into my lap to prove, let me just say that I have yet to find — other than your non-supportive WSJ link, and the Guardian link which has been ably dissected by others here — one reference to Tskhinvali that is not from a Russian source. But you knew that, did you not?

Aug 12, 2008 - 2:18 pm 212. cjm:

the race to survive. they went all in on socialism and now are busted. they could have been a contender, instead of a bum, which is what they are.

Aug 12, 2008 - 2:19 pm 213. DanM:

Sarkozy: “Russian ‘Peacekeepers’” to remain…

So, it’s economic then…

G7 instead of G8. Sounds kinda flacid…

Aug 12, 2008 - 2:20 pm 214. Steynian 222 « Free Mark Steyn!:

[...] RUSSIA SAYS IT IS halting operations in Georgia. Now the battle for world opinion begins. And the beat-down goes on: [...]

Aug 12, 2008 - 2:27 pm 215. Russia » Unrealpolitik:

[...] Russia calls a haltRussian President Dmitry Medvedev has ordered an end to military operations against Georgia, according to the BBC. Russian securities rebounded on the financial markets at news of Medvedev’s order. “I’ve decided to finish the operation … [...]

Aug 13, 2008 - 10:29 am

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